Large Language Models and Generative AI
Large Language Models and Generative AI
Large Language Models and Generative AI
Large language
models and
generative AI
HL Paper 54
Communications and Digital Committee
The Communications and Digital Committee is appointed by the House of Lords in each
session “to consider the media, digital and the creative industries and highlight areas of concern
to Parliament and the public”.
Membership
The Members of the Communications and Digital Committee are:
Baroness Featherstone Lord Kamall
Lord Foster of Bath The Lord Bishop of Leeds
Baroness Fraser of Craigmaddie Lord Lipsey
Lord Griffiths of Burry Port Baroness Stowell of Beeston (Chair)
Lord Hall of Birkenhead Baroness Wheatcroft
Baroness Harding of Winscombe Lord Young of Norwood Green
Baroness Healy of Primrose Hill
Declaration of interests
See Appendix 1.
A full list of Members’ interests can be found in the Register of Lords’ Interests:
http://www.parliament.uk/mps‑lords‑and‑offices/standards‑and‑interests/
register‑of‑lords‑interests
Publications
All publications of the Committee are available at:
https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/170/communications‑and‑digital‑committee/
publications/
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Live coverage of debates and public sessions of the Committee’s meetings are available at:
http://www.parliamentlive.tv
Further information
Further information about the House of Lords and its Committees, including guidance to
witnesses, details of current inquiries and forthcoming meetings is available at:
http://www.parliament.uk/business/lords
Committee staff
The staff who worked on this inquiry were Daniel Schlappa (Clerk), David Stoker (Policy
Analyst) Emily Bailey-Page (Policy Analyst) and Rita Cohen (Committee Operations Officer).
Contact details
All correspondence should be addressed to the Communications and Digital Committee,
Committee Office, House of Lords, London SW1A 0PW. Telephone 020 7219 2922.
Email: holcommunications@parliament.uk
Page
Executive summary 3
Chapter 1: The Goldilocks problem 7
Our inquiry 7
The challenge 7
Chapter 2: Future trends 9
What is a large language model? 9
Box 1: Key terms 9
Figure 1: Sample of LLM capabilities and example products 10
Figure 2: Building, releasing and using a large language model 11
Figure 3: The scale of open and closed model release 12
Figure 4: Level of vertical integration in model development
and deployment 13
Trends 13
Chapter 3: Open or closed? 16
Open and closed models 16
Figure 5: The structure of UK’s AI ecosystem 18
Regulatory capture 19
Conf licts of interest 20
Chapter 4: A pro‑innovation strategy? 23
Benefiting organisations 23
Benefitting society 23
Benefitting workers 24
Figure 6: The impact of technology on job creation 25
Figure 7: Labour exposure to automation by field 25
Government strategy and evolving priorities 26
Removing barriers to UK advantage 30
Figure 8: Affiliation of research teams building notable AI
systems 32
The case for sovereign capabilities 34
Chapter 5: Risk 37
What are we talking about? 37
Table 1: Risk categories 38
Threat models 38
Near‑term security risks 39
Mitigations 42
Catastrophic risk 43
Mitigations 44
Uncontrollable proliferation 45
Existential risk 46
Societal risks 48
Bias and discrimination 48
Data protection 49
Chapter 6: International context and lessons 51
International context 51
Lessons for regulation 52
Chapter 7: Making the White Paper work 55
Where are the central functions? 55
Table 2: Indicative staffing overview 56
Do the regulators have what it takes? 58
Liability 58
High‑risk high‑impact testing 60
Accredited standards and auditing practices 62
Figure 9: Key actors in the AI assurance ecosystem 65
Chapter 8: Copyright 66
Background on data mining 66
Using rightsholder data 66
Legal compliance 67
Technical complexity 68
Reviewing the Government’s position 69
Ways forward 70
Better licensing options 71
New powers to assert rights 71
Summary of conclusions and recommendations 73
Appendix 1: List of Members and declarations of interest 80
Appendix 2: List of witnesses 82
Appendix 3: Call for evidence 90
Appendix 4: Visits 92
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The world faces an inflection point on AI. Large language models (LLMs) will
introduce epoch‑defining changes comparable to the invention of the internet.
A multi‑billion pound race is underway to dominate this market. The victors
will wield unprecedented power to shape commercial practices and access to
information across the world. Our inquiry examined trends over the next three
years and identified priority actions to ensure this new technology benefits
people, our economy and society.
We are optimistic about this new technology, which could bring huge economic
rewards and drive ground‑breaking scientific advances.
Capturing the benefits will require addressing risks. Many are formidable,
including credible threats to public safety, societal values, open market
competition and UK economic competitiveness.
Far‑sighted, nuanced and speedy action is therefore needed to catalyse innovation
responsibly and mitigate risks proportionately. We found room for improvement
in the Government’s priorities, policy coherence, and pace of delivery here.
We support the Government’s overall approach and welcome its successes in
positioning the UK among the world’s AI leaders. This extensive effort should
be congratulated. But the Government has recently pivoted too far towards a
narrow focus on high‑stakes AI safety. On its own this will not deliver the broader
capabilities and commercial heft needed to shape international norms. The UK
cannot hope to keep pace with international competitors without a greater focus
on supporting commercial opportunities and academic excellence. A rebalance
is therefore needed, involving a more positive vision for the opportunities and a
more deliberate focus on near‑term risks.
Concentrated market power and regulatory capture by vested interests also
require urgent attention. The risk is real and growing. It is imperative for the
Government and regulators to guard against these outcomes by prioritising
open competition and transparency.
We have even deeper concerns about the Government’s commitment to fair
play around copyright. Some tech firms are using copyrighted material without
permission, reaping vast financial rewards. The legalities of this are complex but
the principles remain clear. The point of copyright is to reward creators for their
efforts, prevent others from using works without permission, and incentivise
innovation. The current legal framework is failing to ensure these outcomes
occur and the Government has a duty to act. It cannot sit on its hands for the
next decade and hope the courts will provide an answer.
There is a short window to steer the UK towards a positive outcome. We
recommend the following:
Our inquiry
1. The world is facing an inflection point in its approach to artificial intelligence
(AI). Rapid advances in large language models (LLMs) have generated
extensive discussion about the future of technology and society. Some believe
the developments are over‑hyped. Others worry we are building machines
that will one day far outstrip our comprehension and, ultimately, control.
2. We launched this inquiry to examine likely trajectories for LLMs over the
next three years and the actions required to ensure the UK can respond to
opportunities and risks in time. We focused on LLMs as a comparatively
contained case study of the issues associated with generative AI. We focused
on what is different about this technology and sought to build on rather than
recap the extensive literature on AI.1
3. We took evidence from 41 expert witnesses, reviewed over 900 pages of
written evidence, held roundtables with small and medium sized businesses
hosted by the software firm Intuit, and visited Google and UCL Business.2
We were assisted by our specialist adviser Professor Michael Wooldridge,
Professor of Computer Science at the University of Oxford. We are grateful
to all who participated in our inquiry.
The challenge
4. Large language models are likely to introduce some epoch‑defining changes.
Capability leaps which eclipse today’s state‑of‑the‑art models are possible
within the next three years. It is highly likely that openly available models
with increasingly advanced capability will proliferate. In the right hands,
LLMs may drive major boosts in productivity and deliver ground‑breaking
scientific insights. In the wrong hands they make malicious activities easier
and may lay the groundwork for qualitatively new risks.3
5. The businesses that dominate the LLM market will have unprecedented
powers to shape access to information and commercial practices across the
world. At present US tech firms lead the field, though that may not hold true
forever. The UK, alongside allies and partners, must carefully consider the
implications of ceding commercial advantage to states which do not share our
1 See for example Artificial Intelligence Committee, AI in the UK: ready, willing and able? (Report of
Session 2017–19, HL Paper 100), Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, The governance
of artificial intelligence: interim report (Ninth Report, Session 2022–23, HC 1769), DSIT, ‘Frontier
AI’ (25 October 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/frontier-ai-capabilities-and-
risks-discussion-paper [accessed 8 January 2024] and Department for Digital, Culture, Media and
Sport, National AI Strategy, CP 525 (September 2021): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/
media/614db4d1e90e077a2cbdf3c4/National_AI_Strategy_-_PDF_version.pdf [accessed 25 January
2024].
2 See Appendix 4.
3 Q 3 (Dr Jean Innes and Ian Hogarth), written evidence from the Alan Turing Institute (LLM0081)
and DSIT (LLM0079)
8 Large language models and generative AI
values.4 We believe there are strong domestic and foreign policy arguments
favouring an approach that supports (rather than stifles) responsible
innovation to benefit consumers and preserve our societal values.5
6. The revolution in frontier AI will take place outside Government. But the
work involved in building and releasing models will take place in specific
geographies—not least because the developers will need access to energy,
compute and consumers. National governments and regulators will therefore
play a central role in shaping what kind of companies are allowed to flourish.
The most successful will wield extensive power. Professor Neil Lawrence,
DeepMind Professor of Machine Learning at the University of Cambridge,
believed governments have a rare moment of “steerage” and the ramifications
of decisions taken now will have impacts far into the future.6
7. Getting this steerage right will be difficult. It is common for technological
developments to outpace policy responses (as well as raise ethical questions).
But the latest advances in foundation models suggest this divide is becoming
acute and will continue to widen.7 This presents difficulties for governments
seeking to harness this technology for good. Too much early intervention
and they risk introducing laws akin to the ‘Red Flag Act’ of 1865, which
required someone to walk in front of the new motorcars waving a red flag.8
This did not age well. But too much caution around sensible rules is also
harmful: seatbelts were invented in 1885 but drivers were not required to
wear them until 1983.9
8. Solving this ‘Goldilocks’ problem of getting the balance right between
innovation and risk, with limited foresight of market developments, will be
one of the defining challenges for the current generation of policymakers.
Our report proposes a series of recommendations to help the Government,
regulators and industry navigate the challenges ahead.
9. This chapter sets out capabilities and future trends in large language models
(LLMs). The purpose is to summarise how they work, distinguish hype
from reality, and provide the groundwork for our subsequent assessments of
opportunity, risk and regulation. We do not attempt to provide exhaustive
technical detail.
10. Large language models are a type of general purpose AI. They are designed to
learn relationships between pieces of data and predict sequences. This makes
them excellent at generating natural language text, amongst many other
things.10 LLMs are, at present, structurally designed around probability and
plausibility, rather than around creating factually accurate assessments which
correspond to the real world. This is partly responsible for the phenomenon
10 Written evidence from Dr P Angelov et al (LLM0032), Alan Turing Institute (LLM0081) and Google
and Google DeepMind (LLM0095)
10 Large language models and generative AI
Knowledge Content
Translation Summarisation Dialogue Coding
search generation
Source: Alan Turing Institute, ‘Large Language Models and Intelligence Analysis’ (2023): https://cetas.turing.
ac.uk/publications/large‑language‑models‑and‑intelligence‑analysis [accessed 14 December 2023]
12. Developing an LLM is complex and costly. First, the underlying software
must be designed and extensive data collected, often using automated
bots to obtain text from websites (known as web crawling).15 The model is
pre‑trained using parameters (known as model weights) which are adjusted
to teach the model how to arrive at answers.16
13. Further fine‑tuning may be undertaken to improve model performance and
its ability to handle more specialised tasks.17 The process for arriving at an
answer is typically described as a ‘black box’ because it is not always possible
11 Q 97 (Jonas Andrulis)
12 Q 15 (Dr Zoë Webster), written evidence from the Market Research Society (LLM0088), MIT
Technology Review, ‘Large language models may speed drug discovery’ (22 August 2023): https://
w ww.technolog yreview.com /2023/08/22/1076802/ large-language-models-may-speed-dr ug-
discovery/ [accessed 28 November 2023]
13 Written evidence from OpenAI (LLM0113)
14 Competition and Markets Authority, AI Foundation Models Review (2023): https://assets.publishing.
service.gov.uk/media/65045590dec5be000dc35f77/Short_Report_PDFA.pdf [accessed 14 December
2023]
15 Web crawlers search and index content online for search engines.
16 Written evidence from Dr P Angelov et al (LLM0032) and Microsoft (LLM0087)
17 Q 75 (Rob Sherman) and written evidence from Dr P Angelov et al (LLM0032)
Large language models and generative AI 11
supercomputers scientist/engineers
with specialised working on large- Pre-training data Fine-tuning data Real-time data Inputs
chips (GPUs, TPUs) scale systems Emphasise quantity Emphasise quality Feeds at inference
Foundation Models
Pre-training of large, general models
AI
Source: Competition and Markets Authority, AI Foundation Models Review (2023): https://assets.publishing.
service.gov.uk/media/65045590dec5be000dc35f77/Short_Report_PDFA.pdf [accessed 14 December 2023]
cloud-based
GTP-3 (Open AI)
API access
community research
BLOOM (BigScience) low risk control
fully open
GTP-J (EleutherAI) high auditability
broader perspectives
Source: Irene Solaiman, The Gradient of Generative AI Release (February 2023): https://arxiv.org/
pdf/2302.04844.pdf [accessed 14 December 2023]
15. The building blocks and distribution channels for LLMs are likely to vary
considerably. Some large tech firms might own the entire process from
development to distribution. Others are likely to have different businesses
working on each part of the model development and deployment.23
23 Competition and Markets Authority, ‘AI Foundation Models: initial review’ (2023): https://www.gov.
uk/cma-cases/ai-foundation-models-initial-review [accessed 20 December 2023]
Large language models and generative AI 13
compute
public
CSP/
Compute Compute
Cloud services provider
provider
service
Development Development
AI
platform platforms
FM dev.
Closed FM Open-source FM
parties
Third
Integrations Integrations
Source: Competition and Markets Authority, AI Foundation Models Review (2023): https://assets.publishing.
service.gov.uk/media/65045590dec5be000dc35f77/Short_Report_PDFA.pdf [accessed 14 December 2023]
Trends
16. Models will get bigger and more capable. The amount of computing power
used in training has expanded over the past decade by a factor of 55 million.
Training data use has been growing at over 50 per cent per year.24Ian Hogarth,
Chair of the (then) Frontier AI Taskforce, anticipated up to six orders of
magnitude increase in the amount of compute used for next‑generation
models in the next decade, yielding “breath‑taking capabilities”.25
17. Costs will grow significantly. EPOCH, a research initiative, estimates the
costs for developing state‑of‑the‑art models could reach between $600
million and $3 billion over the next three years.26
18. Fine‑tuned models will become increasingly capable and specialised. The
Royal Academy of Engineering believed models trained on high quality
curated datasets are likely to have “superior accuracy, consistency, usability
and accountability” than general‑purpose LLMs.27
19. Smaller models will offer attractive alternatives. These could deliver capable
systems with much lower compute costs and data requirements. Some might
even be run locally on a smartphone.28
20. Open access models will proliferate over the next three years. There is a clear
trend towards ever greater numbers of open access models with increasingly
24 DSIT, Capabilities and risks from frontier AI (October 2023), p 11: https://assets.publishing.service.
gov.uk/media/65395abae6c968000daa9b25/frontier-ai-capabilities-risks-report.pdf [accessed 17
December 2023]. Computing power is typically measured in floating-point operations per second
(FLOPs).
25 Q3
26 Written evidence from EPOCH (LLM002). Note that further infrastructure costs could be substantial.
27 Written evidence from the Royal Academy of Engineering (LLM0063)
28 Written evidence from the Royal Statistical Society (LLM0055), Royal Academy of Engineering
(LLM0063) and TechTarget, ‘Small language models emerge for domain-specific use cases’ (August
2023): https://www.techtarget.com/searchbusinessanalytics/news/366546440/Small-language-mod
els-emerge-for-domain-specific-use-cases [accessed 20 December 2023]
14 Large language models and generative AI
sophisticated capabilities, driven in part by the growing ease and falling costs
of development and customisation.29 They are unlikely to outclass cutting
edge closed source models within the next three years if judged on a suite
of benchmarks, but will offer attractive options for those who do not require
cutting edge capabilities.30 Consumer trust is likely to be a factor affecting
uptake.
21. Integration with other systems will grow. Models are likely to gain more
widespread access to the internet in real time, which may improve the accuracy
and relevance of their outputs.31 Better ways of linking LLMs both with
other tools that augment their capacities (for example calculators), and with
other real‑world systems (for example email, web search, or internal business
processes) are also expected.32 The availability of existing infrastructure
suggests this will occur faster than in previous waves of innovation.33
22. The timeline and engineering pathway to widespread integration of LLMs
in high‑stakes areas remains uncertain. LLMs continue to hallucinate,
exhibit bias, regurgitate private data, struggle with multi‑step tasks, and
pose difficulties for interpreting black‑box processes.34 In light of these
issues it is unclear how quickly LLMs should be integrated into high‑stakes
applications (for example in critical national infrastructure). Improvements
to bias detection, memory, complex task execution, error correction and
interpretability are major areas of research and some improvements within
three years are highly likely.35
29 See for example written evidence from Market Research Society (LLM0088), Edward J. Hu et al,
‘LoRA: ‘Llow-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models’ (June 2021): https://arxiv.org/
abs/2106.09685 [accessed 20 December 2023] and IEEE Spectrum, ‘When AI’s Large Language
Models Shrink’ (March 2023): https://spectrum.ieee.org/large-language-models-size [accessed 20
December 2023].
30 Written evidence from the Royal Academy of Engineering (LLM0063), Stability AI (LLM0078),
TechTarget, ‘Small language models emerge for domain-specific use cases’ (August 2023): https://
www.techtarget.com/searchbusinessanalytics/news/366546440/Small-language-models-emerge-for-
domain-specific-use-cases [accessed 20 December 2023] and IEEE Spectrum, ‘When AI’s Large
Language Models Shrink’ (March 2023): https://spectrum.ieee.org/large-language-models-size)
[accessed 20 December 2023]
31 See for example OpenAI, ‘ChatGPT Plugins’ (March 2023): https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt-plugins
[accessed 28 November 2023] and TechCrunch, ‘You.com launches new apis to connect LLMs to the
web’ (November 2023): https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/14/you-com-launches-new-apis-to-connect-
llms-to-the-web/ [accessed 28 November 2023].
32 Q 98 (Jonas Andrulis), written evidence from the Royal Statistical Society (LLM0055),
Dr P Angelov et al (LLM0032), Alan Turing Institute (LLM0081), Google and Google DeepMind
(LLM0095) and DSIT, Capabilities and risks from frontier AI (October 2023): https://assets.publishing.
service.gov.uk/media/65395abae6c968000daa9b25/frontier-ai-capabilities-risks-report.pdf [accessed
17 December 2023]
33 Written evidence from the Bright Initiative (LLM0033)
34 Written evidence from Oxford Internet Institute (LLM0074), Royal Statistical Society (LLM0055),
Royal Academy of Engineering (LLM0063), Microsoft (LLM0087), Google and Google DeepMind
(LLM0095), NCC Group (LLM0014)
35 Written evidence from the Alan Turing Institute (LLM0081), Google and Google DeepMind
(LLM0095), Professor Ali Hessami et al (LLM0075). See also research interest in related areas,
for example Jean Kaddour et al, ‘Challenges and Applications of Large Language Models’
(July 2023): https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.05332 [accessed 20 December 2023], Noah Shinn et al,
‘Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning’ (March 2023): https://arxiv.org/
abs/2303.11366 [accessed 8 January 2024] and William Saunders et al, ‘Self-critiquing models for
assisting human evaluators’ (June 2022): https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.05802 [accessed 8 January 2024].
Large language models and generative AI 15
36 Jean Kaddour et al, ‘Challenges and Applications of Large Language Models’ (July 2023): https://
arxiv.org/abs/2304.05332 [accessed 20 December 2023]
37 Government Office for Science, Future risks of frontier AI (October 2023): https://assets.publishing.
service.gov.uk/media/653bc393d10f3500139a6ac5/future-risks-of-frontier-ai-annex-a.pdf [accessed
25 January 2024]. See also AI Alignment Forum, ‘What a compute-centric framework says about
AI takeoff speeds’ (January 2023): https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Gc9FGtdXhK9sCSEYu/
what-a-compute-centric-framework-says-about-ai-takeoff [accessed 20 December 2023] and Lukas
Finnveden, ‘PaLM-2 & GPT-4 in “Extrapolating GPT-N performance”’ (May 2023): https://
www.alignmentforum.org/posts/75o8oja43LXGAqbAR/palm-2-and-gpt-4-in-extrapolating-gpt-n-
performance [accessed 8 January 2024].
38 Daniil A Boiko et al, ‘Emergent autonomous scientific research capabilities of large language models’
(2023): https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2304/2304.05332.pdf [accessed 21 December 2023],
Drexler, ‘Reframing superintelligence’ (2019): https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reframing/ [accessed 21
December 2023] and Tom Davidson, ‘Continuous doesn’t mean slow’ (April 2023): https://www.
planned-obsolescence.org/continuous-doesnt-mean-slow/ [accessed 25 January 2024]
39 Written evidence from EPOCH (LLM002)
40 Q 99
41 Ilia Shumailov et al, ‘The curse of recursion’ (May 2023): https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.17493 [accessed
21 December 2023]
42 Open Markets Institute, ‘AI in the public interest’ (15 November 2023): https://www.open
marketsinstitute.org/publications/report-ai-in-the-public-interest-confronting-the-monopoly-threat
[accessed 21 December 2023]
43 Competition and Markets Authority, AI Foundation Models Review
16 Large language models and generative AI
29. Competition dynamics will play a defining role in shaping who leads the
market and what kind of regulatory oversight works best. At its heart, this
involves a contest between those who operate ‘closed’ ecosystems, and those
who make more of the underlying technology openly accessible. We examined
whether the Government should adopt an explicit position favouring one or
the other, and how it should navigate concerns about regulatory capture.
54 Tech Policy, ‘Monopoly Power Is the Elephant in the Room in the AI Debate’ (October 2023): https://
www.techpolicy.press/monopoly-power-is-the-elephant-in-the-room-in-the-ai-debate/ [accessed 8
January 2024] and written evidence from Andreessen Horowitz (LLM0114)
55 Competition and Markets Authority, AI Foundation Models Review
56 Q 8 (Ben Brooks)
57 Ibid.
58 Q3
59 Q 66 (Dr Moez Draief)
60 Written evidence from Martin Hosken (LLM0009)
61 Q 66 (Dr Draief) and Q 111 (Jonas Andrulis)
18 Large language models and generative AI
Source: DSIT, Artificial Intelligence Sector Study (March 2023): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/
media/641d71e732a8e0000cfa9389/artifical_intelligence_sector_study.pdf [accessed 28 November 2023]
62 Q 141
Large language models and generative AI 19
Regulatory capture
43. Throughout our inquiry we encountered mounting concern about regulatory
capture.63 This might occur through lobbying or because officials lack
technical know‑how and come to rely on a narrow pool of private sector
expertise to inform policy and standards. Similar problems may emerge
from groupthink.64 These might lead to regulatory frameworks which favour
a select group of commercial rather than public interests, for example by
creating barriers to new competitors entering the market.65
44. Current trends suggest growing private sector influence. Witnesses
emphasised the limited extent of public sector expertise and the necessity
of closer industry links, including staff exchanges.66 Big tech firms are
reportedly funding the salaries of US Congress staff working on AI policy.67
Forums representing the positions of open and closed market leaders are
proliferating, including the Frontier Model Forum (led by Google, Microsoft,
OpenAI and Anthropic); and the “open science” AI Alliance (backed by
Meta and IBM).68
45. There has been further concern that the AI safety debate is being dominated
by views narrowly focused on catastrophic risk, often coming from those
who developed such models in the first place.69 Critics say this distracts from
more immediate issues like copyright infringement, bias and reliability.70
46. Andreessen Horowitz, a venture capital firm, cautioned that large AI
businesses must “not [be] allowed to establish a government‑protected cartel
that is insulated from market competition due to speculative claims of AI
risk”.71 Professor Neil Lawrence also warned of “a very serious danger of
regulatory capture”.72 The Open Markets Institute similarly raised concerns
that incumbents may “convert their economic heft into regulatory influence”
and distract policymakers “with far‑off, improbable risks”.73
63 Q 3 (Professor Neil Lawrence), written evidence from Nquiring Minds (LLM0073), OpenUK
(LLM0115), Andreessen Horowitz (LLM0114). See also Bloomberg, ‘Google DeepMind chief
calls Meta’s AI criticisms preposterous (1 November 2023): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/
articles/2023–11-01/google-deepmind-chief-calls-meta-s-ai-criticisms-preposterous [accessed 20
December 2023].
64 This may involve a dominant intellectual viewpoint emerging which is not exposed to systematic
challenge. See for example Public Administration Committee, Lessons still to be learned from the Chilcot
inquiry: Government Response (Tenth Report, Session 2016–17, HC 656).
65 ‘Setting rules for AI must avoid regulatory capture by Big Tech’, Financial Times (27 October 2023):
https://www.ft.com/content/6a1f796b-1602-4b07-88cd-4aa408cf069a [accessed 20 December 2023]
66 Q 5 (Ian Hogarth) and Q 119 (Professor Dame Angela McLean)
67 Politico, ‘Key Congress staffers in AI debate are funded by tech giants like Google and Microsoft’
(12 March 2023): https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/03/congress-ai-fellows-tech-
companies-00129701 [accessed 20 December 2023]
68 Frontier Model Forum, ‘Frontier Model Forum: Advancing Safe AI Development’: https://www.
frontiermodelforum.org/ [accessed 20 December 2023] and The AI Alliance, ‘Members’: https://
thealliance.ai/members [accessed 20 December 2023]
69 MIT Technology Review, ‘It’s time to talk about the real AI risks’ (12 July 2023): https://www.
technologyreview.com/2023/06/12/1074449/real-ai-risks/ [accessed 20 December 2023]
70 Politico, ‘How Silicon Valley doomers are shaping Rishi Sunak’s AI plans’ (14 September 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-artificial-intelligence-pivot-safety-summit-united-
kingdom-silicon-valley-effective-altruism/ [accessed 20 December 2023]
71 Written evidence from Andreessen Horowitz (LLM0114)
72 Q3
73 Max von Thun, ‘Monopoly powers is the elephant in the room in the AI debate’ (23 October 2023):
https://www.techpolicy.press/monopoly-power-is-the-elephant-in-the-room-in-the-ai-debate/
[accessed 20 December 2023]
20 Large language models and generative AI
58. This chapter sets out the potential opportunities created by large language
models (LLMs), followed by an assessment of how well the Government’s
strategy is positioning the UK to take advantage.
Benefiting organisations
59. LLM‑powered services offer significant potential across a range of sectors.
Examples include
• IT (code writing);85
Benefitting society
61. Rachel Coldicutt OBE, Executive Director of Careful Industries, argued that
LLMs “can and should contribute to a more equitable prosperous society
for everyone”, but emphasised this could only be achieved if more effort is
made to ensure innovation is deliberately “calibrated to produce societal
Benefitting workers
62. Labour market impacts remain uncertain. Some studies suggest jobs
involving physical or interpersonal work are unlikely to experience much
disruption. Others such as IT, administration and legal work could face
substantial changes.98 Some types of business model are also likely to come
under pressure. Submissions from DMG Media, the Financial Times and
the Guardian Media Group noted that print journalism may be significantly
affected, particularly if advertising or subscription revenues drop as people
turn to LLM tools for information rather than clicking through to news
websites.99 (See Chapter 8 for a discussion on copyright and implications for
news media).
63. Other studies indicate previous waves of disruption have seen new jobs
broadly offsetting losses.100 Much of our evidence suggested initial disruption
would give way to enhanced productivity (and see also Figure 6 below on the
impact of technology on job creation). We did not find plausible evidence of
imminent widespread AI‑induced unemployment.101
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Millions
Building and Grounds Cleaningand Maintenance
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Professionals
Construction and Extraction
Production Managers
Transportation and Material Moving
Clerical & Admin
Food preparation and Serving Related
Personal care and Service Production
0–10% No Automation
Healthcare Support
All Industries Construction
10–49% AI Complement
Life, Physical, and Social Science
Sales
Management
Occupations that existed in 1940
Legal Health
Source: Goldman Sachs, The potentially large effects of artificial intelligence on economic growth
Figure 6: The impact of technology on job creation
Farming
Business and Financial Operations
0
20
40
60
80
100
125
150
175
200
%
Millions
100
25
26 Large language models and generative AI
• fairness;
102 Communications and Digital Committee, At risk: our creative future (2nd Report, Session 2022–23,
HL 125), para 53
103 Communications and Digital Committee, Digital Exclusion (3rd Report, Session 2022–23,
HL Paper 219) and Government Response to the Committee’s report ‘At risk: our creative future’: https://
committees.parliament.uk/publications/39303/documents/192860/default/. Letter from Baroness
Stowell of Beeston, Chair of the Communications and Digital Committee to Lucy Frazer MP, Secretary
of State (June 2023): https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/40617/documents/198054/
default/ and written evidence from BT Group (LLM0090)
104 Q 114 and Communications and Digital Committee, Digital Exclusion
105 DSIT, ‘AI Council’ (7 July 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ai-council [accessed 18
January 2024] and Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, National AI Strategy, CP
525 (September 2021): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/614db4d1e90e077a2cbdf3c4/
National_AI_Strategy_-_PDF_version.pdf [accessed 25 January 2024]
Large language models and generative AI 27
• 7 June: the Prime Minister announces the UK will host a global summit
on AI safety, and will work with allies to make AI “safe and secure”.113
• 18 June: DSIT announces the tech entrepreneur Ian Hogarth will lead
the Foundation Model Taskforce.114
agenda reflected a narrow view of AI risks shaped largely by big tech firms.125
Dame Wendy thought that erstwhile priorities under the National AI Strategy
to take a more holistic approach were “now slipping”, notably around skills,
industry adoption and support for disrupted sectors.126
75. This is problematic because our evidence suggested leadership in AI safety and
commercial prowess are closely linked. Dr Moez Draief, Managing Director
of Mozilla.ai, noted that the skills gained from working on commercial
models were often those most needed in AI safety, and cautioned that “if
the UK is not involved in building or testing models … it will not have the
capability to take advantage”.127
76. And it will be difficult for the Government to use AI specialists to boost
public sector expertise if the brightest entrepreneurs and academics are
tempted by more attractive offers overseas.128 As the Royal Academy of
Engineering warned:
“Should the UK fail to develop rapidly as a hub for the development
and implementation of LLMs, and other forms of AI, it is likely to lose
influence in international conversations on standards and regulatory
practices”.129
77. We therefore welcomed the Government’s achievements in convening
the AI Safety Summit, but questioned the growing focus on making “AI
systems safe”, rather than the (arguably harder) task of catalysing responsible
innovation and adoption.130
78. Professor Dame Angela McLean, Government Chief Scientific Adviser,
said the Government’s work remained balanced despite changes in public
rhetoric.131 We noted a number of workstreams supporting this position,
including the CDEI’s £400,000 Fairness Innovation Challenge, Research
and Innovation (UKRI) funding for university research programmes, the
BridgeAI programme to support adoption, and AI research fellowships.132
79. Mr Hogarth told us there was “a certain urgency to the national security
challenge” and advocated addressing these first before “you can really start
to think about the opportunities”.133 Viscount Camrose, Minister for AI and
IP, acknowledged the “tone” of Government’s work had veered between
innovation and risk, and hoped to “talk with equal emphasis about safety
and innovation” in future.134 When questioned about the balance of external
expert advisers, he stated that the disbanding of the AI Council and CDEI
advisory board were due to a need for greater agility, and not because the
• skills;
• regulatory certainty.136
We cover the first four in this chapter and regulation in Chapter 7.
135 Q 136
136 DSIT, ‘The UK Science and Technology Framework’ (March 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/
publications/uk-science-and-technology-framework/the-uk-science-and-technology-framework
[accessed 8 January 2024]
Large language models and generative AI 31
84. Compute: The UK needs to boost its compute capacity to enable researchers
and businesses to keep pace with international competitors.137 In March 2023
the Government announced £900 million for an ‘exascale’ supercomputer
and AI Research Resource, followed by a further £500 million in November
2023.138
85. Professor Zoubin Ghahramani, Vice President of Research at Google
DeepMind, said this provided the right “ingredients” for UK‑led innovation,139
though we noted the investments remain dwarfed by big tech. Microsoft
alone is investing £2.5 billion over the next three years to expand next
generation UK data centres.140
86. The UK’s universities have long provided publicly beneficial AI research
which drives UK international prominence, though high computing costs
mean such work on LLMs is increasingly out of reach (see Figure 8 below).141
Professor Dame Muffy Calder, Vice‑Principal at the University of Glasgow
and former Chief Scientific Adviser for Scotland, said a “national resource”
was needed providing fair access for academic research on LLMs.142
137 DSIT, Independent Review of The Future of Compute (6 March 2023), Recommendations: https://www.
gov.uk/government/publications/future-of-compute-review/the-future-of-compute-report-of-the-
review-of-independent-panel-of-experts [accessed 29 November 2023]
138 DSIT, ‘Government commits up to £3.5 billion to future of tech and science’ (March 2023): https://
www.gov.uk/government/news/government-commits-up-to-35-billion-to-future-of-tech-and-science
[accessed 8 January 2024] and DSIT ‘Science, Innovation and Technology backed in Chancellor’s
2023 Autumn Statement’ (23 November 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/news/science-
innovation-and-technology-backed-in-chancellors-2023-autumn-statement [accessed 25 January
2024]
139 Q 104
140 Microsoft, ‘Our investment in AI infrastructure, skills and security to boost the UK’s AI potential’
(November 2023): https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2023/11/30/uk-ai-skilling-security-
datacenters-investment/ [accessed 8 January 2024]
141 McKinsey Global Institute, ‘Artificial intelligence in the United Kingdom’ (2019): https://www.
mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20Insights/Artificial%20Intelligence/Artificial%20
intelligence%20in%20the%20United%20Kingdom%20Prospects%20and%20challenges/Artificial-
intelligence-in-the-United-Kingdom-VF2.ashx [accessed 20 December 2023] and written evidence
from Andreessen Horowitz (LLM0114)
142 Q 33
32 Large language models and generative AI
40
30
20
10
0
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Academia Industry Collaboration
Source: HM Government, Safety and security risks of generative artificial intelligence to 2025
(October 2023): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/653932db80884d0013f71b15/
generative‑ai‑safety‑security‑risks‑2025‑annex‑b.pdf [accessed 9 January 2024]
143 Ibid.
144 Written evidence from Careful Industries (LLM0041)
145 Written evidence from the Market Research Society (LLM0088) and Caution Your Blast (LLM0077)
146 QQ 114–119
Large language models and generative AI 33
skills programmes but was similarly concerned the UK was falling behind
rivals in league tables.147
89. Spin‑out companies: Dr Nathan Benaich, Founder of the AI venture
capital firm Air Street Capital, outlined the UK’s longstanding challenges
around supporting spin‑outs and incentivising businesses to remain in
the UK.148 Dr Silver said better pathways were needed to help academic
spin‑outs achieve sustainable commercialisation.149 Value for money could
be achieved by directing support at ventures addressing public service needs,
for example in education and healthcare.150 Dr Silver also suggested focusing
on retaining business ownership in the UK, even if scaling up occurs in the
US.151
90. During our visit to UCL Business we heard that changes to funding allocations
for Centres for Doctoral Training meant there had been a significant drop in
the number of funded AI PhD places.152 Professor David Barber, Director of
the UCL Centre for Artificial Intelligence, said the situation was “alarming”,
noting that successful centres with a track record of producing commercial
spinouts were at significant risk.153
91. Overseas funding is likely to be the main alternative for many universities,
and some reports indicate China is likely to be a key actor.154 The Intelligence
and Security Committee recently warned about the growing threat from
China’s influence in strategic sectors and raised concerns around intellectual
property transfer as a condition of funding.155
92. Recent Government investments in advanced computing facilities
are welcome, but more is needed and the Government will struggle to
afford the scale required to keep pace with cutting edge international
competitors. The Government should provide more incentives
147 Q 30
148 Q 14. An academic spinout is typically a company created by one or more academics or research staff
with the aim of commercialising research.
149 Q 33
150 UK AI Council, Draft Memo (December 2022): https://mlatcl.github.io/papers/ai-council-llm-memo.
pdf [accessed 8 January 2024]. The Government has a number of workstreams to support businesses,
see for example DSIT, ‘ Secretary Michelle Donelan’s speech at Plexal’ (16 January 2024): https://
www.gov.uk/government/speeches/science-innovation-and-technology-secretary-michelle-donelans-
speech-at-plexal [accessed 19 January 2024].
151 Q 33. A recent independent review advocated further measures to support a self-sustaining spinout
ecosystem. See DSIT, Independent Review of University Spin-out Companies (November 2023):
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6549fcb23ff5770013a88131/independent_review_of_
university_spin-out_companies.pdf [accessed 8 January 2024].
152 Written evidence from Professor David Barber (LLM0018). For details on the Centres for Doctoral
Training see UK Research and Innovation, ‘Centres for Doctoral Training (CDT)’: https://www.ukri.
org/what-we-do/developing-people-and-skills/nerc/nerc-studentships/directed-training/centres-for-
doctoral-training-cdt/ [accessed 8 January 2024].
153 Written evidence from Professor David Barber (LLM0018)
154 ‘British universities are becoming dependent on China – and its military’, The Telegraph (November
2023): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/14/british-universities-dependent-china-military/
[accessed 8 January 2024] and ‘Chinese money is pouring into British universities’, The Economist
(March 2022): https://www.economist.com/britain/2022/03/12/chinese-money-is-pouring-into-brit
ish-universities [accessed 8 January 2024]
155 Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, China (July 2023, HC 1605) and Cabinet Office,
‘Government Response to the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament Report China’
(September 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/government-response-to-the-isc-
china-report/government-response-to-the-intelligence-and-security-committee-of-parliament-
report-china-html [accessed 8 January 2024]
34 Large language models and generative AI
156 Ada Lovelace Institute, ‘Foundation models in the public sector’ (October 2023): https://www.
adalovelaceinstitute.org/evidence-review/foundation-models-public-sector/ [accessed 8 January
2024]. See Chapter 5 for a discussion of the risks that need to be addressed.
157 Q 132, Adam C, Dr Richard Carter, ‘Large Language Models and Intelligence Analysis’: https://cetas.
turing.ac.uk/publications/large-language-models-and-intelligence-analysis [accessed 21 December
2023] and Ada Lovelace Institute, ‘Foundation models in the public sector’ (October 2023): https://
www.adalovelaceinstitute.org/evidence-review/foundation-models-public-sector [accessed 8 January
2024].
158 Cogstack, ‘Unlock the power of healthcare data with CogStack’: https://cogstack.org/ [accessed 21
December 2023]
159 For sample initiatives in Sweden, the United Arab Emirates, and Japan see Deloitte, Large language
models - a backgrounder (September 2023): https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/in/
Documents/Consulting/in-consulting-nasscom-deloitte-paper-large-language-models-LLMs-noexp.
pdf [accessed 8 January 2023].
160 See for example NCSC, ‘Exercise caution when building off LLMs’ (30 August 2023): https://www.
ncsc.gov.uk/blog-post/exercise-caution-building-off-llms [accessed 21 December 2023].
Large language models and generative AI 35
161 The Government established an Advanced Research Innovation Agency in January 2023 to fund
high-risk, high-reward scientific research. See Department for Business, Energy and Industrial
Strategy, ‘Research agency supporting high risk, high reward research formally established’ (January
2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/news/research-agency-supporting-high-risk-high-reward-
research-formally-established [accessed 8 January 2024]. The National Audit Office has in the past
been critical of internal digital projects within Government. See for example National Audit Office,
‘Digital transformation in government: addressing the barriers to efficiency’ (March 2023): https://
www.nao.org.uk/reports/digital-transformation-in-government-addressing-the-barriers/ [accessed 8
January 2024] and National Audit Office, ‘Digital Transformation in Government (2017)’ (March
2017): https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/digital-transformation-in-government/ [accessed 8 January
2024].
162 UK AI Council, The UK Foundation Models Opportunity (April 2023): https://mlatcl.github.io/papers/
ai-council-foundation-models-policy-paper.pdf [accessed 14 December 2023]
163 See for example Sir Tony Blair and Lord Hague of Richmond, A New National Purpose (February
2023): https://www.williamhague.com/_files/ugd/067357_96e45c693747432e8bd21dca773fde28.pdf
[accessed 3 January 2024].
164 Q 33
165 Sir Tony Blair and Lord Hague of Richmond, A New National Purpose (February 2023): https://www.
williamhague.com/_files/ugd/067357_96e45c693747432e8bd21dca773fde28.pdf [accessed 3 January
2024]
166 Written evidence from the Open Data Institute (LLM0083)
167 UK AI Council, The UK Foundation Models Opportunity (April 2023): https://mlatcl.github.io/papers/
ai-council-foundation-models-policy-paper.pdf [accessed 14 December 2023]
168 Written evidence from EPOCH (LLM002). Note the costs are indicative and it may not be feasible to
rent such levels.
169 Written evidence from the Royal Statistical Society (LLM0055)
36 Large language models and generative AI
103. Ethics and reliability would also be vital. Professor Phil Blunsom, Chief
Scientist at Cohere, highlighted the varying degrees of LLM reliability and
thought any uses affecting life outcomes should be “heavily regulated”.170
The Committee on Standards in Public Life noted that the Government
could learn lessons from abroad when considering the ethical use of public
sector AI: Canada has compulsory ethics assessments for automated
decision‑making systems, for example.171
104. The Minister said he could see “in principle” the advantages of having a
sovereign LLM but would “wait for the evidence” and further advice on
next‑generation model capabilities and uses, expected in early 2024.172
105. A sovereign UK LLM capability could deliver substantial value if
challenges around reliability, ethics, security and interpretability can
be resolved. LLMs could in future benefit central departments and
public services for example, though it remains too early to consider
using LLMs in high‑stakes applications such as critical national
infrastructure or the legal system.
106. We do not recommend using an ‘off the shelf’ LLM or developing one
from scratch: the former is too risky and the latter requires high‑tech
R&D efforts ill‑suited to Government. But commissioning an LLM
to high specifications and running it on internal secure facilities
might strike the right balance. The Government might also make
high‑end facilities available to researchers and commercial partners
to collaborate on applying LLM technology to national priorities.
107. We recommend that the Government explores the options for and
feasibility of acquiring a sovereign LLM capability. No option is risk
free, though commissioning external developers might work best.
Any public sector capability would need to be designed to the highest
ethical and security standards, in line with the recommendations
made in this report.
170 Q 24
171 Written submission from the Committee on Standards in Public Life (LLM0052)
172 Q 132
Large language models and generative AI 37
Chapter 5: RISK
108. The nature, likelihood and impact of risks arising from large language
models (LLMs) remains subject to much debate. The complexity stems in
part from the extensive literature,173 lack of agreed definitions, hype around
rapid developments,174 and the possibility that some organisations may have
interests in emphasising or downplaying risk.175
109. This chapter examines a selection of security and societal risks.176 We sought
to distinguish hype from reality and provide some reference points to ground
our review. We found credible evidence of both immediate and longer‑term
risks from LLMs to security, financial stability and societal values.
110. The first section of this chapter sets out our understanding of risk categories.
The next section sets out near‑term security risks that require immediate
attention, followed by a discussion on longer‑term concerns around
catastrophic risk and then existential risk. Near‑term societal risks such as
bias and discrimination are discussed at the end of the chapter.
173 Our analysis draws on evidence submitted to this inquiry alongside Government publications, industry
assessments, academic reviews and stakeholder engagements.
174 MIT Technology Review, ‘AI hype is built on high test scores’ (30 August 2023): https://www.
technologyreview.com/2023/08/30/1078670/large-language-models-arent-people-lets-stop-testing-
them-like-they-were/ [accessed 20 December 2023]
175 ‘How the UK’s emphasis on apocalyptic AI risk helps business’, The Guardian (31 October 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/oct/31/uk-ai-summit-tech-regulation [accessed 20
December 2023]
176 The distinction is made here for ease of analysis, noting that many of the risks and outcomes overlap.
We describe bias as a societal risk, though a biased LLM used for defence-related decision-making
might introduce security risks. Similarly a poorly calibrated LLM used in healthcare might result in
fatalities. Our assessments are indicative only.
177 For a discussion on determining acceptable fatality rates see written evidence from Matthew Feeney
(LLM047). For frameworks on risk see for example the US National Institute of Standards and
Technology, Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (January 2023): https://nvlpubs.nist.
gov/nistpubs/ai/NIST.AI.100-1.pdf [accessed 20 December 2023] and European Commission,
‘Regulatory framework proposal on artificial intelligence’: https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/
policies/regulatory-framework-ai [accessed 20 December 2023]. See also National Cyber Security
Centre, ‘Guidelines for secure AI System development’ (November 2023): https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/
collection/guidelines-secure-ai-system-development [accessed 8 January 2024].
178 See for example the AI Safety Summit discussion paper, alongside Annex A and Annex B,
available at DSIT, ‘Frontier AI’ (25 October 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/
frontier-ai-capabilities-and-risks-discussion-paper [accessed 8 January 2024], ‘The Bletchley
Declaration by Countries Attending the AI Safety Summit’ (1 November 2023): https://www.
gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-2023-the-bletchley-declaration/the-bletchley-
declaration-by-countries-attending-the-ai-safety-summit-1-2-november-2023 [accessed 8 January
2024], ‘Introducing the AI Safety Institute’ (2 November 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/
publications/ai-safety-institute-overview/introducing-the-ai-safety-institute [accessed 8 January
2024], Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, National AI Strategy, Cp 525 (September
2021): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/614db4d1e90e077a2cbdf3c4/National_AI_
Strategy_-_PDF_version.pdf [accessed 20 December 2023] and National Institute of Standards and
Technology, Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (January 2023): https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/
nistpubs/ai/NIST.AI.100-1.pdf [accessed 8 January 2023].
38 Large language models and generative AI
112. There are also various ways of categorising societal risk and conducting
impact assessments.180 We draw on these to inform our review of societal
risk, noting that the issues are highly context‑dependent.
Threat models
113. Risks may arise from both open and closed models, for example through:
179 Note the NRR evaluation timeframe is assessed over two years for malicious risks and five years for
non-malicious risks. We acknowledge AI may be treated as both a chronic and acute risk.
180 See for example Cabinet Office, ‘Ethics, Transparency and Accountability Framework for Automated
Decision-Making’ (November 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ethics-
transparency-and-accountability-framework-for-automated-decision-making/ethics-transparency-
and-accountability-framework-for-automated-decision-making [accessed 20 December 2023],
Central Digital and Data Office, ‘Data Ethics Framework’ (September 2020): https://www.gov.
uk/government/publications/data-ethics-framework/data-ethics-framework-2020 [accessed 20
December 2023], CDEI, ‘Review into bias in algorithmic decision-making’ (November 2020): https://
www.gov.uk/government/publications/cdei-publishes-review-into-bias-in-algorithmic-decision-
making [accessed 20 December 2023], Information Commissioner’s Office, ‘Data protection impact
assessments’: https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/uk-gdpr-guidance-and-resources/accountability-
and-governance/guide-to-accountability-and-governance/accountability-and-governance/data-
protection-impact-assessments/ [accessed 20 December 2023] and House of Commons Library, ‘The
Public Sector Equality Duty and Equality Impact Assessments’, Research Briefing SN06591, July
2020.
Large language models and generative AI 39
• loss of control (for example where a highly capable machine pursues its
own objectives that may not be obvious to humans or aligned with our
wellbeing).181
181 Written evidence from the Alan Turing Institute (LLM0081), Martin Hosken (LLM0009), Royal
Academy of Engineering (LLM0063) and DSIT, ‘Frontier AI’ (25 October 2023): https://www.gov.
uk/government/publications/frontier-ai-capabilities-and-risks-discussion-paper [accessed 8 January
2024]
182 Q 27 (Professor Phil Blunsom), Q 24 (Chris Anley), Q 24 (Lyric Jain), written evidence from
Ofcom (LLM0104), Competition and Markets Authority (LLM0100), Financial Conduct
Authority (LLM0102), Open Data Institute (LLM0083), Alan Turing Institute (LLM0081) and
HM Government, Safety and Security Risks of Generative Artificial Intelligence to 2025 (2023): https://
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/653932db80884d0013f71b15/generative-ai-safety-security-
risks-2025-annex-b.pdf [accessed 21 December 2023]
183 Q 26 (Lyric Jain) and ‘GPT-4 gave advice on planning terrorist attacks when asked in Zulu’,
New Scientist (October 2023): https://www.newscientist.com/article/2398656-gpt-4-gave-advice-on-
planning-terrorist-attacks-when-asked-in-zulu/ [accessed 20 December 2023]
184 Written evidence from NCC Group (LLM0014), Q 22 (Professor Phil Blunsom) and NCSC, ‘Annual
Review 2023’ (2023): https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/collection/annual-review-2023/technology/case-study-
cyber-security-ai [accessed 20 December 2023]
185 Check Point Research, ‘OPWNAI: cyber criminals starting to use ChatGPT’ (January 2023):
https://research.checkpoint.com/2023/opwnai-cybercriminals-starting-to-use-chatgpt/ [accessed 20
December 2023] and ‘WormGPT: AI tool designed to help cybercriminals will let hackers develop
attacks on large scale, experts warn’, Sky (September 2023): https://news.sky.com/story/wormgpt-
ai-tool-designed-to-help-cybercriminals-will-let-hackers-develop-attacks-on-large-scale-experts-
warn-12964220 [accessed 20 December 2023]
186 Q 24 (Chris Anley)
187 A prompt injection involves entering a text prompt into an LLM which then enables the actor to
bypass safety protocols. See written evidence from NCC Group (LLM0014), Q 24 (Chris Anley) and
National Cyber Security Centre, ‘Exercise caution when building off LLMs’ (August 2023): https://
www.ncsc.gov.uk/blog-post/exercise-caution-building-off-llms [accessed 20 December 2023].
188 DSIT, Capabilities and risks from frontier AI (October 2023), p 18: https://assets.publishing.service.
gov.uk/media/65395abae6c968000daa9b25/frontier-ai-capabilities-risks-report.pdf [accessed 20
December 2023]
189 Q 24 (Chris Anley)
40 Large language models and generative AI
Even moderate gains could however prove costly when deployed against
under‑prepared systems, as previous attacks on the NHS have shown.190
117. A reasonable worst case scenario might involve malicious actors using LLMs
to produce attacks achieving higher cyber infection rates in critical public
services or national infrastructure.191
118. Terrorism: A recent report by Europol found that LLM capabilities are
useful for terrorism and propaganda.192 Options include generating and
automating multilingual translation of propaganda, and instructions
for committing acts of terror.193 In future, openly available models might
be fine‑tuned to provide more specific hate speech or terrorist content
capabilities, perhaps using archives of propaganda and instruction manuals.194
The leak of Meta’s model (called LLaMa) on 4chan, a controversial online
platform, is instructive. Users reportedly customised it within two weeks to
produce hate speech chatbots, and evaded take‑down notices.195
119. National Statistics data show 93 victim deaths due to terrorism in England
and Wales between April 2003 and 31 March 2021.196 A reasonable
worst case scenario might involve a rise in attacks directly attributable to
LLM‑generated propaganda or made possible through LLM‑generated
instructions for building weapons.197
120. Synthetic child sexual abuse material: Image generation models are
already being used to generate realistic child sexual abuse material (CSAM).198
The Stanford Internet Observatory predicts that in under a year “it will
become significantly easier to generate adult images that are indistinguishable
from actual images”.199 The Internet Watch Foundation has confirmed this is
“happening right now”,200 and stated legal software can be downloaded and
190 The 2017 WannaCry cyber-attack for example affected 30 per cent of NHS Trusts, costing £92 million.
See ‘Cost of WannaCry cyber-attack to the NHS revealed’, Sky, 11 October 2018: https://news.sky.
com/story/cost-of-wannacry-cyber-attack-to-the-nhs-revealed-11523784 [accessed 20 December
2023].
191 Cabinet Office, ‘National Risk Register’ (2023), p 15: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/
national-risk-register-2023 [accessed 20 December 2023]
192 EUROPOL, ChatGPT—The impact of Large Language Models on Law Enforcement (March 2023):
https://www.europol.europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/Tech%20Watch%20Flash%20
-%20The%20Impact%20of%20Large%20Language%20Models%20on%20Law%20Enforcement.
pdf [accessed 20 December 2023]
193 Tech Against Terrorism, ‘Early Terrorist Adoption of Generative AI’ (November 2023): https://
techagainstterrorism.org/news/early-terrorist-adoption-of-generative-ai [accessed 20 December
2023]
194 Global Network on Extremism and Technology, ‘‘RedPilled AI’: A New Weapon for Online
Radicalisation on 4chan’ (June 2023): https://gnet-research.org/2023/06/07/redpilled-ai-a-new-
weapon-for-online-radicalisation-on-4chan/ [accessed 20 December 2023]
195 Ibid.
196 House of Commons Library, ‘Terrorism in Great Britain: the statistics’, Research Briefing, CBP7613,
19 July 2022
197 HM Government, National Risk Register 2023 Edition (2023): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.
uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1175834/2023_NATIONAL _RISK_
REGISTER_NRR.pdf [accessed 20 December 2023]. See section on terrorism pp 30–54.
198 Q 10 (Ian Hogarth)
199 David Thiel, Melissa Stroebel and Rebecca Portnoff, Generative ML and CSAM: Implications and
Mitigations (June 2023): https://stacks.stanford.edu/file/druid:jv206yg3793/20230624-sio-cg-csam-
report.pdf [accessed 21 December 2023]
200 Matt O’Brien and Haleluya Hadero, ‘AI-generated child sexual abuse images could flood the internet’,
AP (October 2023): https://apnews.com/article/ai-artificial-intelligence-child-sexual-abuse-c8f17de5
6d41f05f55286eb6177138d2 [accessed 21 December 2023]
Large language models and generative AI 41
201 Internet Watch Foundation, How AI is being abused to create child sexual abuse imagery (October
2023): https://www.iwf.org.uk/media/q4zll2ya/iwf-ai-csam-report_public-oct23v1.pdf [accessed 21
December 2023)
202 David Thiel, Melissa Stroebel and Rebecca Portnoff, Generative ML and CSAM: Implications and
Mitigations (June 2023): https://stacks.stanford.edu/file/druid:jv206yg3793/20230624-sio-cg-csam-
report.pdf [accessed 21 December 2023]
203 Internet Watch Foundation, How AI is being abused to create child sexual abuse imagery (October
2023): https://www.iwf.org.uk/media/q4zll2ya/iwf-ai-csam-report_public-oct23v1.pdf [accessed 21
December 2023]
204 Ibid.
205 Written evidence from the Alan Turing Institute (LLM0081), Logically AI (LLM0062),
Dr Jeffrey Howard et al (LLM0049) and Full Fact (LLM0058)
206 Written evidence from the Surrey Institute for People-Centred Artificial Intelligence (LLM0060)
207 NCSC, ‘NCSC warns of enduring and significant threat to UK’s critical infrastructure’ (14 November
2023): https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/news/ncsc-warns-enduring-significant-threat-to-uks-critical-infrast
ructure [accessed 21 December 2023]
208 Q 119
209 Q 3
210 Q 24
211 For details of the US intelligence community assessment of activities conducted by the Russian
Federation see The Director of National Intelligence, ‘Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions
in Recent US Elections’ (January 2017): https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf
[accessed 20 December 2023].
42 Large language models and generative AI
Mitigations
126. A range of mitigation work is underway across Government and industry.
The main issue remains scale and speed: malicious actors enjoy first‑mover
advantages whereas it will take time to upgrade public and private sector
mitigations, including public awareness.214 And as the Government’s AI
Safety Summit paper noted, there are limited market incentives to provide
safety guardrails and no standardised safety benchmarks.215
127. We wrote to the Government seeking more information. It declined to
provide details on whether mitigations were being expanded. But it did
confirm workstreams included:
• SAM: Measures under the Online Safety Act; delivery of the 2021
C
Child Sexual Abuse Strategy; international partnerships; monitoring
technology developments; investments in the National Crime Agency,
GCHQ and policing; and setting up a “new central strategic function”
looking at emerging technology.
212 QQ 24–25
213 For further details of disinformation affecting elections and other Government priorities see
HM Government, National Risk Register 2020 Edition (2020): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.
uk/media/6001b2688fa8f55f6978561a/6.6920_CO_CCS_s_National_Risk_Register_2020_11-1-21-
FINAL.pdf [accessed 21 December 2023].
214 Written evidence from NCC Group (LLM0014) and letter from Viscount Camrose, Parliamentary
Under Secretary of State Department for Science, Innovation & Technology to Baroness Stowell of
Beeston, Chair of the Communications and Digital Committee (16 January 2024): https://committees.
parliament.uk/work/7827/large-language-models/publications/3/correspondence/
215 DSIT, ‘Frontier AI’ (25 October 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/frontier-ai-
capabilities-and-risks-discussion-paper [accessed 8 January 2024]
216 Letter from Viscount Camrose, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State Department for Science,
Innovation & Technology to Baroness Stowell of Beeston, Chair of the Communications and Digital
Committee (16 January 2023): https://committees.parliament.uk/work/7827/large-language-models/
publications/3/correspondence/
Large language models and generative AI 43
Catastrophic risk
130. Catastrophic risks might arise from the deployment of a model with highly
advanced capabilities without sufficient safeguards.217 As outlined in the
previous table, indicative impacts might involve over 1,000 fatalities, 2,000
casualties and/or financial damages exceeding £10 billion.
131. There are threat models of varying plausibility.218 The majority of our
evidence suggests these are less likely within the next three years but should
not be ruled out—particularly as the capabilities of next‑generation models
become clearer and open access models more widespread.219 We outline
some of the most plausible risks below.
132. B
iological or chemical release: A model might be used to lower the
barriers to malicious actors creating and releasing a chemical or biological
agent. There is evidence that LLMs can already identify pandemic‑class
pathogens, explain how to engineer them, and even suggest suppliers who
are unlikely to raise security alerts.220 Such capabilities may be attractive
to sophisticated terror groups, non‑state armed groups, and hostile states.
This scenario would still require a degree of expertise, access to requisite
materials and, probably, sophisticated facilities.221
133. Destructive cyber tools: Next generation LLMs and more extensive
fine tuning may yield models capable of much more advanced malicious
activity.222 These may be integrated into systems capable of autonomous
self‑improvement and a degree of replication.223 Such advances would raise
217 HM Government, Safety and Security Risks of Generative Artificial Intelligence to 2025 (2023): https://
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/653932db80884d0013f71b15/generative-ai-safety-security-
risks-2025-annex-b.pdf [accessed 21 December 2023]
218 Center for AI Safety, ‘An overview of catastrophic AI risks’: https://www.safe.ai/ai-risk [accessed 20
December 2023]
219 QQ 22–23, written evidence from Royal Academy of Engineering (LLM0063), Microsoft (LLM0087),
Google and Google DeepMind (LLM0095), OpenAI (LLM0013) and DSIT (LLM0079)
220 Kevin Esvelt et al, ‘Can large language models democratize access to dual-use biotechnology?’ (June
2023): https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.03809[accessed 21 December 2023]
221 Andrew D White et al, ‘ChemCrow: Augmenting large-language models with chemistry tools’ (April
2023): https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.05376 [accessed 8 January 2024] and Nuclear Threat Initiative,
The Convergence of Artificial Intelligence and the Life Sciences (October 2023): https://www.nti.org/wp-
content/uploads/2023/10/NTIBIO_AI_FINAL.pdf [accessed 21 December 2023]
222 Effective Altruism Forum, ‘ Possible OpenAI’s Q* breakthrough and DeepMind’s AlphaGo-type
systems plus LLMs’ (November 2023): https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3diski3inLfPrWsDz/
possible-openai-s-q-breakthrough-and-deepmind-s-alphago-type [accessed 21 December 2023]
223 Note that the Government assesses generative AI is unlikely to fully automate computer hacking by
2025. See HM Government, Safety and Security Risks of Generative Artificial Intelligence to 2025 (2023):
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/653932db80884d0013f71b15/generative-ai-safety-
security-risks-2025-annex-b.pdf [accessed 21 December 2023].
44 Large language models and generative AI
Mitigations
135. Professor Dame Angela McLean, Government Chief Scientific Adviser,
confirmed that there were no agreed warning indicators for catastrophic risk.
She said warning indicators for pandemics and similar were well understood,
but:
“we do not have that spelled out for the more catastrophic versions
of these risks. That is part of the work of the AI Safety Institute: to
make better descriptions of things that might go wrong, and scientific
descriptions of how we would measure that.”227
136. OpenAI told us work was underway to evaluate “dangerous capabilities”
and appropriate safety features but noted “science‑based measurements of
frontier system risks … are still nascent”.228
137. Professor John McDermid OBE, Professor of Safety‑Critical Systems at
the University of York, said industries like civil aviation designed software
with fault‑detection in mind so that sudden failures could be fixed with speed
and confidence.229 He did not believe such safety‑critical system analysis was
possible yet for LLMs and believed it should be a research priority.230
138. Professor Stuart Russell OBE, Professor of Computer Science at the
University of California, Berkeley, was sceptical that the biggest safety
challenges could be addressed without fundamental design changes. He noted
that high‑stakes industries like nuclear power had to show the likelihood
224 Megan Kinniment et al, Evaluating Language-Model Agents on Realistic Autonomous Tasks: https://evals.
alignment.org/Evaluating_LMAs_Realistic_Tasks.pdf [accessed 21 December 2023]
225 Ibid., written evidence from the Alan Turing Institute (LLM0081)
226 See for example Adam C, Dr Richard J. Carter, ‘Large Language Models and Intelligence Analysis’:
https://cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications/large-language-models-and-intelligence-analysis [accessed 21
December 2023], War on the Rocks, ‘How large language models can revolutinise military planning
(12 April 2023): https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/how-large-language-models-can-revolutionize-
military-planning/ [accessed 9 January 2024] and National Cyber Security Centre, ‘NCSC CAF
guidance’: https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/collection/caf/cni-introduction [accessed 21 December 2023].
227 Q 118 (Professor Dame Angela McLean)
228 Written evidence from OpenAI (LLM0113)
229 The bug responsible for the 2014 UK air traffic control failure was found within 45 minutes, for
example. See ‘Flights disrupted after computer failure at UK control centre’, BBC (12 December
2014): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30454240 [accessed 20 December 2023].
230 Q 70
Large language models and generative AI 45
Uncontrollable proliferation
143. There is a clear trend towards faster development, release and customisation
of increasingly capable open access models.233 Some can already be trained
in just 6 hours and cost a few hundred dollars on public cloud computing
platforms.234
144. We heard widespread concern about the ease of customisation leading to a
rapid and uncontrollable proliferation of models which may be exploited by
malicious actors, or contain safety defects affecting businesses and service
users.235
145. Google DeepMind told us that that “once a model is openly available, it is
possible to circumvent any safeguards, and the proliferation of capabilities is
231 Q 24
232 Q 134
233 Written evidence from Hugging Face (LLM0019), Advertising Association (LLM0056) and Meta
(LLM0093)
234 Xinyang Geng et al, ‘Koala: A Dialogue Model for Academic Research’ (April 2023): https://bair.
berkeley.edu/blog/2023/04/03/koala/ [accessed 21 December 2023]
235 Q 10 (Ian Hogarth), written evidence from British Copyright Council (LLM0043), Dr Baoli Zhao
(LLM0008), Google DeepMind (LLM0095) and IEEE, ‘Protesters Decry Meta’s “Irreversible
Proliferation” of AI’ (October 2023): https://spectrum.ieee.org/meta-ai [accessed 21 December 2023]
46 Large language models and generative AI
Existential risk
149. The threat model for existential risk remains highly disputed. A baseline
scenario involves the gradual integration of hyper intelligent AI into
high‑impact systems to achieve political, economic or military advantage,
followed by loss of human control. This might occur because humans
gradually hand over control to highly capable systems that vastly exceed
our understanding; and/or the AI system pursues goals which are not
aligned with human welfare and reduce human agency.243 Humans might
also increasingly rely on AI evaluations in high‑stakes areas such as nuclear
strategy, for example.244
efforts to address limited but more immediate risks,254 as well as from the
opportunities LLMs may provide.255
155. It is almost certain existential risks will not manifest within three years
and highly likely not within the next decade. As our understanding
of this technology grows and responsible development increases, we
hope concerns about existential risk will decline. The Government
retains a duty to monitor all eventualities. But this must not distract
it from capitalising on opportunities and addressing more limited
immediate risks.
Societal risks
156. LLMs may amplify any number of existing societal problems, including
inequality, environmental harm, declining human agency and routes for
redress, digital divides, loss of privacy, economic displacement, and growing
concentrations of power.256
Data protection
163. LLMs may have personal data in their training sets, drawn from proprietary
sources or information online. Safeguards to prevent inappropriate
regurgitation are being developed but are not robust.269
164. Arnav Joshi, Senior Associate at Clifford Chance, did not believe there was
currently widespread non‑compliance with data protection legislation but
thought “that might happen [ … without] sufficient guardrails”.270 He said
the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) provided “an incredibly
powerful tool” to guide responsible innovation, but noted measures in
the Data Protection and Digital Information Bill would, if enacted, have
263 Hallucinations refer to the phenomenon of LLMs producing plausible-sounding but inaccurate
responses.
264 Written evidence from the Alan Turing Institute (LLM0081) and Royal Society of Statisticians
(LLM0055)
265 Q 68
266 Q 67
267 Written evidence from the Committee on Standards in Public Life (LLM0052) and Oxford Internet
Institute (LLM0074)
268 Q 136
269 Haoran Li et al, ‘Privacy in Large Language Models: Attacks, Defenses and Future Directions’
(October 2023): https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.10383 [accessed 8 January 2024]
270 Q 55
50 Large language models and generative AI
271 Written evidence from Arnav Joshi (LLM0112). We noted further concerns from the Public Law
Project about the Bill’s proposals to “weaken” protections around automated decision-making, as
well as uncertainty around the extent to which models ‘hold’ personal data and hence how far data
protection duties apply. See for example Public Law Project, ‘How the new Data Bill waters down
protections’ (November 2023): https://publiclawproject.org.uk/resources/how-the-new-data-bill-
waters-down-protections/ [accessed 21 December 2023], and Q 56.
272 Cogstack, ‘Unlock the power of healthcare data with CogStack’: https://cogstack.org/ [accessed 21
December 2023]
273 Written evidence from the Creators’ Rights Alliance (LLM0039)
274 See recent debates on related topics, for example ‘Palantir NHS contract doubted by public for data
privacy’, The Times (November 2023): https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/palantir-nhs-contract-
doubted-by-public-for-data-privacy-q9sccsmln [accessed 8 January 2024].
275 Q 86. The ICO already provides extensive guidance on data protection. See for example: Information
Commissioner’s Office, ‘Generative AI: eight questions that developers and users need to ask’
(April 2023): https://ico.org.uk/about-the-ico/media-centre/blog-generative-ai-eight-questions-that-
developers-and-users-need-to-ask/ [accessed 21 December 2023].
Large language models and generative AI 51
International context
169. We examined the extent to which the UK should replicate regulatory
approaches adopted by the most influential actors in AI: the US, EU and
China.
170. The EU reached initial agreement on its AI Act in December 2023.276
Supporters believe the legislation will set a global standard for a tiered
mitigation of risks, preserving consumer rights and upholding democratic
principles. Detractors said it is too prescriptive and risks becoming obsolete
as general purpose systems continue to evolve.277
171. The US is pursuing a market‑driven approach. Dr Mark MacCarthy, Senior
Fellow at the Institute for Technology Law and Policy at Georgetown Law,
said the US would likely go “beyond voluntary commitments”. In his view,
this would involve government‑stipulated requirements enforced via a
“supplemental approach of giving existing regulators more authority”.278
172. China’s approach may be characterised as ‘security first’. Paul Triolo, Senior
Associate with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, said China took a positive
attitude to technological progress and had recently shifted regulatory
oversight into “overdrive” to ensure generative AI delivered against the
Chinese Communist Party’s strategic objectives. This included rapid
iterative measures (for example on watermarking, the quality of data inputs
and accuracy of model outputs) to provide businesses with initial direction,
followed by stricter codified rules.279
173. The Government could learn lessons from the US vision for context‑specific
regulation, the EU’s objectives to mitigate high‑impact risks, and China’s
positive attitude to technological adoption while addressing its societal and
security concerns at pace.280 But wholesale replication of their regulatory
approaches appeared unwise: the UK lacks the distinctive features that
shape the their positions—such as the EU’s customer base and appetite for
regulatory heft; American market power; and China’s political objectives.281
174. Katherine Holden of techUK said the UK should continue to pursue
its own regulatory pathway which is “proportionate, risk‑based and
outcomes‑focused”.282 Many others such as the Startup Coalition and
Google DeepMind offered similar views. 283 As the Alan Turing Institute
emphasised, being proactive in delivering this “middle of the road” approach
would mean the UK is “better placed to advocate for those policies globally,
276 Council of the EU, ‘Artificial intelligence act: Council and Parliament strike a deal on the first
rules for AI in the world’ (December 2023): https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-
releases/2023/12/09/artificial-intelligence-act-council-and-parliament-strike-a-deal-on-the-first-
worldwide-rules-for-ai/ [accessed 8 January 2024]
277 Written evidence from the Startup Coalition (LLM0089), AGENCY (LLM0028) and Q 50
278 Q 48
279 Q 49 and written evidence from Dr Xuechen Chen (LLM0031)
280 Q 31, Q 50, written evidence from the Open Data Institute (LLM0083), Matthew Feeney (LLM0047)
and AGENCY (LLM0028)
281 Q 50, written evidence from the Alan Turing Institute (LLM0081) and Startup Coalition (LLM0089)
282 Q 38
283 Written evidence from Google and Google DeepMind (LLM0095)
52 Large language models and generative AI
which will in turn generate further credibility and support for the UK’s
domestic AI ecosystem”.284
175. The UK should continue to forge its own path on AI regulation,
balancing rather than copying the EU, US or Chinese approaches. In
doing so the UK can strengthen its position in technology diplomacy
and set an example to other countries facing similar decisions and
challenges.
176. International co‑ordination will be key, but difficult. We found substantial
support for the Government’s work to convene global stakeholders, including
China,285 and for its efforts to create a shared approach to risks.286 Competing
priorities, agendas and forums suggest however that global regulatory
divergence is more likely than convergence in the short‑ to medium‑term.287
177. We found support for further international co‑ordination,288 perhaps
involving a convening body modelled on other sectors like nuclear or
aviation.289 Professor McDermid thought greater co‑ordination would be
valuable but warned that the UK would fall “far behind the curve” if it
waited for international consensus without progressing domestic action first.290
178. International regulatory co‑ordination will be key, but difficult and
probably slow. Divergence appears more likely in the immediate
future. We support the Government’s efforts to boost international
co‑operation, but it must not delay domestic action in the meantime.
it was possible.292 Arnav Joshi of Clifford Chance noted the EU’s work on
legislation had begun in 2019 and would not take effect until around 2025.293
181. Owen Larter, Director of Public Policy at Microsoft’s Office for Responsible
AI, advocated tiered regulation with different requirements for each layer of
the technology stack.294 The Glenlead Centre supported legislation, arguing
that its absence would make the UK a “rule‑taker” as businesses comply
with more stringent rules set by other countries.295
182. Others were more cautious. Mind Foundry, a software firm, warned that
“ill‑conceived and strict regulation” would hamper opportunities.296 The
Oxford Internet Institute identified some areas where primary legislation
would help, but noted greater clarity on standards and regulatory gaps was
needed.297
183. Rachel Coldicutt OBE of Careful Industries thought getting regulation right
would be difficult: moving quickly risks poor rules which lead to chilling
effects, while waiting for harms to emerge and legislating retrospectively
may involve years‑long processes to develop an overly complex regime that
attempts to unpick entrenched business models.298 She cited the progress of
the Online Safety Act as a cautionary tale, and advocated instead stronger
Government‑led strategic direction backed up by forward‑looking measures
to prevent harm and incentivise responsible innovation.299
184. We noted numerous other lessons to inform LLM oversight, though
no system could be replicated wholesale. Medicine has a robust system
of phased discovery trials and closely supervised release,300 though the
Government Chief Scientific Adviser said we did not yet have AI tests that
would approximate even first‑stage trials.301 Dr Koshiyama pointed to the
financial sector’s ongoing self‑assessments against clear benchmarks as a
helpful yardstick.302
185. Professor McDermid said aviation showed that high‑stakes software can be
made in ways that are safe, interpretable and internationally co‑ordinated.303
Data protection law has shown the viability of tiered penalties, as well as
the risks of ‘one‑size‑fits‑all’ approaches disproportionately burdening small
businesses.304 Health and safety laws have proved remarkably durable.305
Digital markets show the value of acting ahead of time before damaging
practices become normalised.306
186. The Government told us that legislation had not been ruled out.307 The
Minister had no “philosophical objection” and anticipated “binding
292 Q 47
293 Written evidence from Arnav Joshi (LLM0112)
294 Q 76
295 Written evidence from the Glenlead Centre (LLM0051)
296 Written evidence from Mind Foundry (LLM0030)
297 Written evidence from the Oxford Internet Institute (LLM0074)
298 Written evidence from Careful Industries (LLM0041)
299 Ibid.
300 See for example The Medicines for Human Use (Clinical Trials) Regulations 2004 (SI 2004/1031).
301 Q 128
302 Q 72 (Dr Adriano Koshiyama)
303 Q 70 (Professor John McDermid)
304 Q 47 (Professor Anu Bradford) and QQ 55–57 (Arnav Joshi)
305 Written evidence from Carnegie UK (LLM0096)
306 Written evidence from Stability AI (LLM0078)
307 Q 139 (Lizzie Greenhalgh)
54 Large language models and generative AI
308 Q 143
Large language models and generative AI 55
188. The Government’s White Paper aims to bring “clarity and coherence” to AI
regulation. It relies substantially on existing regulators to deliver this complex
task, rather than establishing a new overarching AI regulator.309 Many
stakeholders have raised concerns about a patchwork of disjointed rules, gaps,
definitions, overlapping remits, and inconsistent enforcement emerging from
the UK’s 90 or so regulators of varying size, heft and expertise.310
189. The White Paper committed to setting up Government‑led “central
functions” to provide support, co‑ordination and coherence. It said many
stakeholders preferred this to a new AI regulator. Key areas for the central
functions include:
• horizon scanning;
• international interoperability.311
315 Written evidence from Careful Industries (LLM0041), Carnegie UK (LLM0096). Some guidance
is emerging already. See for example Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency,
‘Large Language Models and software as a medical device’ (3 March 2023): https://medregs.blog.
gov.uk/2023/03/03/large-language-models-and-software-as-a-medical-device/ [accessed 26 January
2023] and Information Commissioner’s Office, ‘Generative AI: eight questions that developers and
users need to ask’ (3 April 2023): https://ico.org.uk/about-the-ico/media-centre/blog-generative-ai-
eight-questions-that-developers-and-users-need-to-ask/ [accessed 26 January 2023].
316 QQ 93–94
317 See correspondence from regulators, available at Communications and Digital Committee,
‘Correspondence’: https://committees.parliament.uk/work/7827/large-language-models/publications/
3/correspondence/.
Large language models and generative AI 57
318 Q 135
58 Large language models and generative AI
Liability
203. We heard conflicting views on the extent to which regulators could and should
be able to hold upstream developers to account. The Alan Turing Institute
outlined the “many hands” problem, where the number of parties involved
in LLMs and extent of possible uses makes liability attribution difficult.323
The number of actors involved with open access models introduces further
complexity.324
204. Upstream developers have greatest insight into and control over the base
model, and typically specify acceptable use policies.325 Dr Nathan Benaich
of Air Street Capital said their responsibility for subsequent downstream
use remained a “grey zone”, particularly if models were customised in
inappropriate ways.326 Rob Sherman of Meta believed there had to be
responsibility at “every level of the chain”.327 Microsoft said developers would
“not be in a position to mitigate the risks of the many different downstream
use cases of which they will have little visibility”.328
205. Downstream actors may however lack sufficient information to be confident
of their liabilities. Dr Zoë Webster, Director of Data and AI Solutions at BT,
said she was concerned that:
“we will be held accountable … for issues with a foundation
model where we have no idea what data it was trained on, how it was
tested and what the limitations are on how and when it can be used.
There are open questions and that is a limiting factor on adoption”.329
206. Professor McDermid noted that liability ultimately lies with the manufacturer
in safety‑critical industries like aviation, unless a downstream customer has
erred (for example through faulty maintenance).330 He thought the issue with
LLMs was not directly comparable, though it remained “far too complex to
transfer liability to the user”. He suggested the complexities around mid‑tier
customisation of models should be referred to the Law Commission for an
authoritative review.331
207. Michael Birtwistle of the Ada Lovelace Institute said the White Paper
focused on AI use rather than development, and that regulators had limited
capacity to address the source of problems in upstream developers.332 Poor
data labelling by developers may create downstream bias issues, for example.333
208. Our discussion with regulators suggested the issue remained complex,
context‑dependent and in many cases unclear.334 The ICO believed they
could operate across the “entirety of the value chain”.335 The EHRC thought
likewise. (In practice this might involve attempting to obtain information on
the base model via an intermediary service provider and it remains unclear
how successful this would be).336 Ofcom said it focused more on downstream
services.337 The Minister said liability was “one of the areas that the [AI
Safety Institute] is looking into to give us the evidence and opinion to guide
our approach”.338
209. Model developers bear some responsibility for the products they are
building—particularly given the foreseeable risk of harm from misuse
and the limited information available to customers about how the
base model works. But how far such liability extends remains unclear.
The Government should ask the Law Commission to review legal
liability across the LLM value chain, including open access models.
The Government should provide an initial position, and a timeline
for establishing further legal clarity, in its White Paper response.
338 Q 140
339 Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, speech given at London Tech Week, 12 June 2023: https://www.gov.uk/
government/speeches/pm-london-tech-week-speech-12-june-2023 [accessed 8 January 2024]
340 DSIT, ‘Safety Testing: Chair’s Statement of Session Outcomes, 2 November 2023’ (November
2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-2023-chairs-statement-safety-
testing-2-november/safety-testing-chairs-statement-of-session-outcomes-2-november-2023 [accessed
8 January 2024]
341 The White House, ‘Fact sheet: President Biden Issues Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and
Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence’ (October 2023): https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/
statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-
and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/ [accessed 8 January 2024]
342 Q 76 (Owen Larter), Bloomberg, ‘OpenAI backs idea of requiring licences for advanced AI systems’
(20 July 2023): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023–07-20/internal-policy-memo-shows-
how-openai-is-willing-to-be-regulated [accessed 8 January 2024], see also written evidence from
Microsoft (LLM0087) and Google and Google DeepMind (LLM0095).
343 The Law Society, ‘A pro-innovation approach to AI regulation – Law Society response’ (June 2023):
https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/campaigns/consultation-responses/a-pro-innovation-approach-to-ai-
regulation [accessed 8 January 2024]
344 Written evidence from Dr Baoli Zhao (LLM0008)
345 Written evidence from Martin Hosken (LLM0009)
Large language models and generative AI 61
213. The risk profile of the most powerful models suggests further safeguards may
indeed be needed as next‑generation capabilities come online.346 Advanced
capabilities to plan and execute tasks autonomously through external tools
might be a particular concern.347 We welcomed the Government’s initial
progress on engaging tech firms but were not convinced voluntary agreements
would suffice in the long‑term. The recent furore around OpenAI’s
governance showed that the tech leaders with whom the Government strikes
deals can change overnight,348 and their successors may not be likeminded.
The scale of controversy and litigation in technology around the world over
the past 25 years suggests the current period of constructive engagement
between governments and tech firms is unlikely to last forever.349
214. It would also be naïve to assume that high‑risk high‑impact models will be
developed only in countries like the US, where the UK can draw on goodwill
and longstanding relationships. The Minister acknowledged there were no
safety testing agreements with Chinese firms, for example, though that
country is likely to produce highly capable models.350
215. Further, there does not appear to be a clear set of tools and powers to compel a
business to comply with Government recommendations on pre‑release safety
requirements. What happens if a highly risky model is released (including
in open access format) remains unclear. The Minister suggested developers
might break an existing rule and trigger some form of sanction.351 However,
the current absence of benchmarks with legal standing and lack of clarity on
liability suggests there are limited options to issue market recall directives to
the developer, or platform take‑down notices at websites hosting dangerous
open access models.352 Some bodies have comparable powers (for example
the Health and Safety Executive) but none appears designed to address the
scale and cross‑cutting nature of LLMs.353 The Minister noted any gaps
would be “a piece of evidence” supporting further regulatory action.354
346 ‘OpenAI chief seeks new Microsoft funds to build ‘superintelligence’’, Financial Times (November
2023): https://www.ft.com/content/dd9ba2f6-f509-42f0-8e97-4271c7b84ded [accessed 8 January
2024], DSIT, ‘The Bletchley Declaration by Countries Attending the AI Safety Summit, 1-2 November
2023’ (November 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-2023-the-
bletchley-declaration/the-bletchley-declaration-by-countries-attending-the-ai-safety-summit-1-
2-november-2023 [accessed 8 January 2024] and Humza Naveed et al, A Comprehensive Overview
of Large Language Models (July 2023): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.06435.pdf [accessed 27 December
2024]. See also Chapter 5 on risk.
347 Centre for Security and Emerging Technology, Skating to where the puck is going (October 2023): https://
cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/Frontier-AI-Roundtable-Paper-Final-2023CA004-v2.pdf
[accessed 5 January 2024]
348 Roberto Tallarita, Harvard Business Review, ‘AI Is Testing the Limits of Corporate Governance’
(December 2023): https://hbr.org/2023/12/ai-is-testing-the-limits-of-corporate-governance [accessed
8 January 2024]
349 See for example ‘As Google Turns 25, It Faces The Biggest Tech Antitrust Trial Of A Generation’,
Forbes (September 2023): https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardnieva/2023/09/11/google-antitrust-
trail-25th-birthday/?sh=502ac98910e4 [accessed 8 January 2024] and ‘Why it is becoming easier to sue
Big Tech in the UK’, BBC News (January 2023): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-64210531
[accessed 8 January 2024].
350 Q 141
351 Q 139
352 Written evidence from Reset (LLM0042)
353 Health and Safety Executive, ‘HSE’s role as a market surveillance authority’: https://www.hse.gov.
uk/work-equipment-machinery/hse-role-market-surveillance-authority.htm [accessed 8 January
2024] and Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, ‘Homepage’: https://www.gov.
uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency [accessed 8
January 2024]
354 Q 139
62 Large language models and generative AI
216. Defining the criteria for what counts as a high‑risk high‑impact model will
be difficult, as will deciding what an acceptable boundary is for passing any
tests. Avoiding onerous red tape and market barriers would be key. Scope
could be determined by model size, compute power, cost, general capability
or risk‑specific capability. None is a perfect predictor and capability is likely
the key (if most challenging) metric.355 A combination of factors which
evolves in line with technology may prove best.356
217. Dr Adriano Koshiyama said that agreeing the pass or fail rate for safety
tests would be challenging,357 particularly if the skills to create safeguards
lie in upstream developers but the societal and legal liability costs are largely
borne by downstream users.358 OpenAI said that safety benchmarks and
guardrails were among its research priorities.359 Bringing a wide range of
actors including civil society into such discussions will be important in
ensuring the benchmarks are fair and avoid the concerns around regulatory
capture outlined in earlier chapters.360
218. We welcome the commitments from model developers to engage with
the Government on safety. But it would be naïve to believe voluntary
agreements will suffice in the long‑term as increasingly powerful
models proliferate across the world, including in states which already
pose a threat to UK security objectives.
219. The Government should develop mandatory safety tests for
high‑risk high‑impact models. This must include an expectation
that the results will be shared with the Government (and regulators if
appropriate), and clearly defined powers to require compliance with
safety recommendations, suspend model release, and issue market
recall or platform take‑down notices in the event of a credible threat
to public safety.
220. The scope and benchmarks for high‑risk high‑impact testing should
involve a combination of metrics that can adapt to fast‑moving
changes. They should be developed by the AI Safety Institute
through engagement with industry, regulators and civil society. It is
imperative that these metrics do not impose undue market barriers,
particularly to open access providers.
355 There are numerous ways of evaluating capability already, and extensive work is ongoing. See for
example Dan Hendrycks et al, ‘Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding’ (January
2021): https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300 [accessed 8 January 2024], Papers With Code, ‘Arithmetic
Reasoning on GSM8K: https://paperswithcode.com/sota/arithmetic-reasoning-on-gsm8k [accessed 8
January 2024] and Papers With Code, ‘HumanEval’: https://paperswithcode.com/dataset/humaneval
[accessed 8 January 2024].
356 Written evidence from the Oxford Internet Institute (LLM0074)
357 Q 70
358 Ibid.
359 Written evidence from OpenAI (LLM0113)
360 Written evidence from Andreessen Horowitz (LLM0114)
Large language models and generative AI 63
361 Business models and practices vary significantly across LLMs, including how they monetise the
models, whether the data used is proprietary or scraped from the internet, and what the model may
be used for. Clear but nuanced guidance will be key. See the CDEI Innovation, Industry Temperature
Check (December 2022): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/638f3af78fa8f569f7745ab5/
Industry_Temperature_Check_-_Barriers_and_Enablers_to_AI_Assurance.pdf [accessed 20
December 2023].
362 Written evidence from the Royal Academy of Engineering (LLM0063)
363 Written evidence from Hugging Face (LLM0019) and Bright Initiative (LLM0033)
364 Written evidence from the British Standards Institution (LLM0111)
365 CDEI, ‘The roadmap to an effective AI assurance ecosystem’ (December 2021): https://www.gov.uk/
government/publications/the-roadmap-to-an-effective-ai-assurance-ecosystem/the-roadmap-to-an-
effective-ai-assurance-ecosystem [accessed 8 January 2024]
64 Large language models and generative AI
366 CDEI, ‘The roadmap to an effective AI assurance ecosystem’ (December 2021): https://www.gov.uk/
government/publications/the-roadmap-to-an-effective-ai-assurance-ecosystem/the-roadmap-to-an-
effective-ai-assurance-ecosystem [accessed 8 January 2024], CDEI and the DSIT, ‘CDEI portfolio of
AI assurance techniques’ (June 2023): https://www.gov.uk/guidance/cdei-portfolio-of-ai-assurance-
techniques [accessed 8 January 2024], Q 116, written evidence from IEEE Standards Association
(LLM0072), BT Group (LLM0090), Arnav Joshi (LLM0112), Local Government Association
(LLM0048) and Policy Connect (LLM0065)
367 CDEI, Industry Temperature Check
368 Regulatory sandboxes enable innovators to test products with close supervision and access to regulatory
expertise. See Department of Science, Innovation and Technology, ‘New advisory service to help
businesses launch AI and digital innovations’ (September 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/
news/new-advisory-service-to-help-businesses-launch-ai-and-digital-innovations [accessed 8 January
2024].
369 Written evidence from the Royal Academy of Engineering (LLM0063) and IEEE (LLM0072), See
also the Ethical Black Box standard.
370 Written evidence from the IEEE (LLM0072), RAE (LLM0063), British Standards Institution
(LLM0111), Hugging Face (LLM0019) and BT (LLM0090)
371 Written evidence from BT Group (LLM0090). Model cards are a type of documentation used in
AI to provide information about a model. See for example Hugging Face, ‘Model Cards’: https://
huggingface.co/docs/hub/model-cards [accessed 8 January 2024].
372 UKAS, ‘Digital Sector Accreditation’: https://www.ukas.com/accreditation/sectors/digital/ [accessed
8 January 2024], UKAS, ‘Homepage’: https://www.ukas.com/ [accessed 8 January 2024] and ICO,
‘Age Appropriate Design Certification Scheme’ (July 2021): https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/
advice-and-services/certification-schemes/certification-scheme-register/age-appropriate-design-
certification-scheme-aadcs/ [accessed 8 January 2024]
Large language models and generative AI 65
Supporting structures
Accreditations/
Standards
Government Regulators Professional
bodies
bodies
Source: Centre for Data Ehics and Innovation, The roadmap to an effective AI assurance ecosystem (8 December
2021): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the‑roadmap‑to‑an‑effective‑ai‑assurance‑ecosystem/
the‑roadmap‑to‑an‑effective‑ai‑assurance‑ecosystem [accessed 21 December 2023]
225. Progress on standards will help inform decisions on what audits of LLMs
should cover and how they should be conducted.373 Accredited private sector
auditors could provide AI assurance in ways similar to the financial sector.
This would also deepen the pool of experts available for regulators to draw
on too.374 Hayley Fletcher, a Director at the Competition and Markets
Authority, highlighted the importance of audits led both by regulators and
third parties, and said the Digital Regulation Co‑operation Forum was
making progress on auditing practices.375
226. Accredited standards and auditing practices are key. They would help
catalyse a domestic AI assurance industry, support business clarity
and empower regulators. We urge the Government and regulators to
work with partners at pace on developing accredited standards and
auditing practices for LLMs (noting that these must not be tick‑box
exercises). A consistent approach to publishing key information on
model cards would also be helpful.
227. The Government should then use the public sector procurement
market to encourage responsible AI practices by requiring bidders
to demonstrate compliance with high standards when awarding
relevant contracts.
373 Digital Regulation Cooperation Forum, ‘Auditing algorithms: the existing landscape, role of
regulators and future outlook’ (September 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/
findings-from-the-drcf-algorithmic-processing-workstream-spring-2022/auditing-algorithms-the-
existing-landscape-role-of-regulators-and-future-outlook [accessed 8 January 2024]
374 Q 72 and written evidence from Holistic AI (LLM0010)
375 Q 89
66 Large language models and generative AI
Chapter 8: COPYRIGHT
228. Many contributors to our inquiry contended that LLM developers were
acting unethically and unlawfully by using copyrighted data to train models
without permission.376 Developers disagreed, citing the societal value of their
products and the legal exemptions. We examined the balance of evidence
and ways forward.
376 Written evidence from the British Copyright Council (LLM0043), Publishers Licensing Services
(LLM0082) and Creators Rights Alliance (LLM0039)
377 Communications and Digital Committee, At risk: our creative future (2nd Report, Session 2022–23,
HL Paper 125), para53. The £108 billion figure refers to a more recent update from the Government.
See Department for Culture, Media and Sport, ‘Ambitious plans to grow the economy and boost
creative industries’ (June 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ambitious-plans-to-grow-the-
economy-and-boost-creative-industries [accessed 8 January 2024].
378 Department for Culture, Media and Sport, Government response to At risk: our creative future (18
April 2023): https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/39303/documents/192860/default/
379 Department for Culture, Media and Sport, Creative Industries Sector Vision, CP 863 (June 2023):
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64898de2b32b9e000ca96712/Creative_Industries_
Sector_Vision__accessible_version_.pdf [accessed 8 January 2024]
380 Written evidence from Publishers’ Licensing Services (LLM0082), British Copyright Council
(LLM0043), Authors’ Licensing and Collecting Society (LLM0092), British Equity Collecting Society
(LLM0085), British Recorded Music Industry (LLM0084), Creators’ Rights Alliance (LLM0039),
PRS for Music (LLM0071), Ivors Academy of Music Creators (LLM0071), Publishers Association
(LLM0067), RELX (LLM0064), Getty Images (LLM0054), DACS (LLM0045), Society of Authors
(LLM0044), Association of Illustrators (LLM0036), Copyright Licensing Agency (LLM0026),
Alliance for Intellectual Property (LLM0022) and Copyright Clearance Center (LLM0018). Note
that we refer to ‘rightsholders’ as a shorthand for stakeholders critical of LLM developers’ use of
copyrighted works. We recognise that both parties are rightsholders and should not be seen as entirely
separate groups.
381 Written evidence from the Society of Authors (LLM0044)
Large language models and generative AI 67
Legal compliance
235. We heard further disagreement about the extent to which the methods used
by LLM developers to acquire and use data are lawful. Dan Conway, CEO of
the Publishers’ Association, argued that LLMs “are infringing copyrighted
content on an absolutely massive scale … when they collect the information,
how they store the information and how they handle it.” He said there was
clear evidence from model outputs that developers had used pirated content
from the Books3 database, and alleged they were “not currently compliant”
with UK law.389
236. Microsoft argued in contrast that conducting TDM on “publicly available
and legally accessed works should not require a licence” and was “not
copyright infringement”.390 It cited international copyright conventions391
suggesting copyright should “not extend to ideas … Everyone should have
the right to read, learn and understand these works, and copyright law in
the UK includes exceptions that allow for the use of technology as a tool to
enable this”.392
237. OpenAI said it complied with “all applicable laws” and believed that, in
its view, “copyright law does not forbid training”.393 Stability AI said its
activities were “protected by fair use doctrine in jurisdictions such as the
United States”.394 Professor Zoubin Ghahramani of Google DeepMind said
that if models were to directly reproduce works then rightsholder concerns
would be “very valid … We try to take measures so that does not happen.”395
Technical complexity
238. A large language model may not necessarily ‘hold’ a set of copyrighted works
itself. As Dr Andres Guadamuz has noted, the text from books and articles
is converted into billions of sequences (called tokens).396 The final model
contains only statistical representations of the original training data.397 Jonas
Andrulis, CEO of Aleph Alpha, said it was “technically not possible to trace
the origin of a certain word or sentence down to one or even a handful of
sources”.398
239. The process for extracting data from websites and transferring it to processing
platforms may however involve some form of temporary copy. There
is disagreement as to whether such usage is exempt from the Copyright,
Designs and Patents Act 1988.399
240. Dr Hayleigh Bosher, Reader in Intellectual Property Law and Associate
Dean at Brunel University London, said the Act covered the reproduction
or “storing the work in any medium by electronic means”.400 She argued
that the exceptions allowing transient or incidental copies were narrow and
did not apply to LLMs.401 Dan Conway, CEO of the Publishers Association,
agreed.402 This issue may be a focus of future legal action.403
241. Dr Bosher further argued that it was more helpful to consider the underlying
purpose and principles of copyright law. She noted that metaphors comparing
LLMs to people reading books were misleading, because the intent behind
LLM development was clearly commercial whereas reading a book for
interest was not. She said the application of copyright law should be future
proof and not overly specific to how a particular technology works:
“because it is not the point. It does not matter how you do it; it is why
you are doing it.”404
Ways forward
248. Viscount Camrose, Minister for AI and Intellectual Property, said he “had
hoped” the IPO‑convened working group could develop a voluntary code
for AI and copyright by the end of 2023. If talks failed he would consider
“other means, which may include legislation”.411 Dan Conway said he still
supported the IPO’s efforts but believed they would fail without an explicit
acknowledgement from the Government and tech firms about the application
of copyright and IP law. He said a “legislative handbrake” was needed “if the
voluntary conversations fall apart”.412
249. The voluntary IPO‑led process is welcome and valuable. But debate
cannot continue indefinitely. If the process remains unresolved by
Spring 2024 the Government must set out options and prepare to
resolve the dispute definitively, including legislative changes if
necessary.
250. We heard there were difficult decisions over whether access to and payment
for data should be conducted on an ‘opt‑in’ or ‘opt‑out’ basis. Stability AI
said it already operated an ‘opt‑out’ system and believed requirements to
obtain licenses before conducting TDM would “stifle AI development”
and encourage activity to shift to more permissive jurisdictions.413 OpenAI,
Google DeepMind and Aleph Alpha also supported opt‑out approaches.414
Richard Mollett of RELX noted the EU already has an “opt‑in/opt‑out
regime … [which] operates tolerably well”.415
251. Getty Images argued that “ask for forgiveness later” opt‑out mechanisms
were “contrary to fundamental principles of copyright law, which requires
permission to be secured in advance”.416 The Publishers’ Licensing Services
said an opt‑out approach would also be “impractical” because models could
not easily unlearn data they had already been trained on.417 DMG Media
noted that opt‑outs could also be commercially damaging, as it is not always
clear whether web crawlers are being used for internet search services (which
contribute significantly to publishers’ revenue) or for AI training. The
uncertainty means that publishers have been reluctant to block bots from
some large tech firms.418
252. The IPO code must ensure creators are fully empowered to exercise
their rights, whether on an opt‑in or opt‑out basis. Developers should
make it clear whether their web crawlers are being used to acquire
data for generative AI training or for other purposes. This would
411 Q 142
412 Q 58
413 Stability AI highlighted the EU’s tiered approach which allowed greater opt-out options, and licensing
regimes in the US and Japan. See written evidence from Stability AI (LLM0078).
414 Q 106, Q 109 and written evidence from OpenAI (LLM0113)
415 Q 60
416 Written evidence from Getty Images (LLM0054)
417 Written submission from PLS (LLM0028)
418 Written evidence from DMG Media (LLM0068)
Large language models and generative AI 71
430 Q 109
431 Written evidence from PRS for Music (LLM0071)
Large language models and generative AI 73
Future trends
1. Large language models (LLMs) will have impacts comparable to the
invention of the internet. (Paragraph 28)
2. The UK must prepare for a period of heightened technological turbulence as it seeks
to take advantage of the opportunities. (Paragraph 28)
Open or closed
3. Fair market competition is key to ensuring UK businesses are not squeezed
out of the race to shape the fast‑growing LLM industry. The UK has
particular strengths in mid‑tier businesses and will benefit most from a
combination of open and closed source technologies. (Paragraph 40)
4. The Government should make market competition an explicit policy objective. This
does not mean backing open models at the expense of closed, or vice versa. But it
does mean ensuring regulatory interventions do not stifle low‑risk open access model
providers. (Paragraph 41)
5. The Government should work with the Competition and Markets Authority to keep
the state of competition in foundation models under close review. (Paragraph 42)
6. The risk of regulatory capture is real and growing. External AI expertise
is becoming increasingly important to regulators and Government, and
industry links should be encouraged. But this must be accompanied by
stronger governance safeguards. (Paragraph 48)
7. We recommend enhanced governance measures in DSIT and regulators to mitigate
the risks of inadvertent regulatory capture and groupthink. This should apply to
internal policy work, industry engagements and decisions to commission external
advice. Options include metrics to evaluate the impact of new policies and standards
on competition; embedding red teaming, systematic challenge and external critique
in policy processes; more training for officials to improve technical know‑how;
and ensuring proposals for technical standards or benchmarks are published for
consultation. (Paragraph 49)
8. The perception of conflicts of interest risks undermining confidence
in the integrity of Government work on AI. Addressing this will become
increasingly important as the Government brings more private sector
expertise into policymaking. Some conflicts of interest are inevitable and
we commend private sector leaders engaging in public service, which
often involves incurring financial loss. But their appointment to powerful
Government positions must be done in ways that uphold public confidence.
(Paragraph 56)
9. We recommend the Government should implement greater transparency measures
for high‑profile roles in AI. This should include further high‑level information about
the types of mitigations being arranged, and a public statement within six months
of appointment to confirm these mitigations have been completed. (Paragraph 57)
A pro-innovation strategy
10. Large language models have significant potential to benefit the economy and
society if they are developed and deployed responsibly. The UK must not
lose out on these opportunities. (Paragraph 65)
74 Large language models and generative AI
11. Some labour market disruption looks likely. Imminent and widespread
cross‑sector unemployment is not plausible, but there will inevitably be those
who lose out. The pace of change also underscores the need for a credible
strategy to address digital exclusion and help all sectors of society benefit
from technological change. (Paragraph 66)
12. We reiterate the findings from our reports on the creative industries and digital
exclusion: those most exposed to disruption from AI must be better supported to
transition. The Department for Education and DSIT should work with industry to
expand programmes to upskill and re‑skill workers, and improve public awareness
of the opportunities and implications of AI for employment. (Paragraph 67)
13. The Government is not striking the right balance between innovation and risk.
We appreciate that recent advances have required rapid security evaluations
and we commend the AI Safety Summit as a significant achievement. But
Government attention is shifting too far towards a narrow view of high‑stakes
AI safety. On its own, this will not drive the kind of widespread responsible
innovation needed to benefit our society and economy. The Government
must also recognise that long‑term global leadership on AI safety requires
a thriving commercial and academic sector to attract, develop and retain
technical experts. (Paragraph 80)
14. The Government should set out a more positive vision for LLMs and
rebalance towards the ambitions set out in the National AI Strategy and AI
White Paper. It otherwise risks falling behind international competitors and
becoming strategically dependent on a small number of overseas tech firms.
The Government must recalibrate its political rhetoric and attention, provide
more prominent progress updates on the ten‑year National AI Strategy, and
prioritise funding decisions to support responsible innovation and socially
beneficial deployment. (Paragraph 81)
15. A diverse set of skills and people is key to striking the right balance on AI.
We advocate expanded systems of secondments from industry, academia and civil
society to support the work of officials—with appropriate guardrails as set out in
Chapter 3. We also urge the Government to appoint a balanced cadre of advisers to
the AI Safety Institute with expertise beyond security, including ethicists and social
scientists. (Paragraph 82)
16. Recent Government investments in advanced computing facilities are
welcome, but more is needed and the Government will struggle to afford the
scale required to keep pace with cutting edge international competitors. The
Government should provide more incentives to attract private sector investment in
compute. These should be structured to maximise energy efficiency. (Paragraph 92)
17. Equitable access will be key. UK Research and Innovation and DSIT must ensure
that both researchers and SMEs are granted access to high‑end computing facilities
on fair terms to catalyse publicly beneficial research and commercial opportunity.
(Paragraph 93)
18. The Government should take better advantage of the UK’s start‑up
potential. It should work with industry to expand spin‑out accelerator schemes.
This could focus on areas of public benefit in the first instance. It should also remove
barriers, for example by working with universities on providing attractive licensing
and ownership terms, and unlocking funding across the business lifecycle to help
start‑ups grow and scale in the UK. (Paragraph 94)
Large language models and generative AI 75
19. The Government should also review UKRI’s allocations for AI PhD funding, in
light of concerns that the prospects for commercial spinouts are being negatively
affected and foreign influence in funding strategic sectors may grow as a result.
(Paragraph 95)
20. A sovereign UK LLM capability could deliver substantial value if challenges
around reliability, ethics, security and interpretability can be resolved.
LLMs could in future benefit central departments and public services for
example, though it remains too early to consider using LLMs in high‑stakes
applications such as critical national infrastructure or the legal system.
(Paragraph 105)
21. We do not recommend using an ‘off the shelf’ LLM or developing one from
scratch: the former is too risky and the latter requires high‑tech R&D efforts
ill‑suited to Government. But commissioning an LLM to high specifications
and running it on internal secure facilities might strike the right balance.
The Government might also make high‑end facilities available to researchers
and commercial partners to collaborate on applying LLM technology to
national priorities. (Paragraph 106)
22. We recommend that the Government explores the options for and feasibility of
acquiring a sovereign LLM capability. No option is risk free, though commissioning
external developers might work best. Any public sector capability would need
to be designed to the highest ethical and security standards, in line with the
recommendations made in this report. (Paragraph 107)
Risk
23. The most immediate security concerns from LLMs come from making
existing malicious activities easier, rather than qualitatively new risks.
(Paragraph 128)
24. The Government should work with industry at pace to scale existing mitigations
in the areas of cyber security (including systems vulnerable to voice cloning), child
sexual abuse material, counter‑terror, and counter‑disinformation. It should set
out progress and future plans in response to this report, with a particular focus on
disinformation in the context of upcoming elections. (Paragraph 128)
25. The Government has made welcome progress on understanding AI risks and
catalysing international co‑operation. There is however no publicly agreed
assessment framework and shared terminology is limited. It is therefore
difficult to judge the magnitude of the issues and priorities. (Paragraph 129)
26. The Government should publish an AI risk taxonomy and risk register. It would
be helpful for this to be aligned with the National Security Risk Assessment.
(Paragraph 129)
27. Catastrophic risks resulting in thousands of UK fatalities and tens of billions
in financial damages are not likely within three years, though this cannot
be ruled out as next generation capabilities become clearer and open access
models more widespread. (Paragraph 140)
28. There are however no warning indicators for a rapid and uncontrollable
escalation of capabilities resulting in catastrophic risk. There is no cause
for panic, but the implications of this intelligence blind spot deserve sober
consideration. (Paragraph 141)
76 Large language models and generative AI
38. International regulatory co‑ordination will be key, but difficult and probably
slow. Divergence appears more likely in the immediate future. We support
the Government’s efforts to boost international co‑operation, but it must not
delay domestic action in the meantime. (Paragraph 178)
39. Extensive primary legislation aimed solely at LLMs is not currently
appropriate: the technology is too new, the uncertainties too high and the
risk of inadvertently stifling innovation too great. Broader legislation on AI
governance may emerge in future, though this was outside the scope of our
inquiry. (Paragraph 187)
40. Setting the strategic direction for LLMs and developing enforceable, pro‑innovation
regulatory frameworks at pace should remain the Government’s immediate priority.
(Paragraph 187)
Copyright
54. LLMs may offer immense value to society. But that does not warrant the
violation of copyright law or its underpinning principles. We do not believe
it is fair for tech firms to use rightsholder data for commercial purposes
without permission or compensation, and to gain vast financial rewards in
the process. There is compelling evidence that the UK benefits economically,
politically and societally from upholding a globally respected copyright
regime. (Paragraph 245)
55. The application of the law to LLM processes is complex, but the principles
remain clear. The point of copyright is to reward creators for their efforts,
prevent others from using works without permission, and incentivise
innovation. The current legal framework is failing to ensure these outcomes
occur and the Government has a duty to act. It cannot sit on its hands for the
next decade until sufficient case law has emerged. (Paragraph 246)
56. In response to this report the Government should publish its view on whether
copyright law provides sufficient protections to rightsholders, given recent advances
in LLMs. If this identifies major uncertainty the Government should set out options
for updating legislation to ensure copyright principles remain future proof and
technologically neutral. (Paragraph 247)
57. The voluntary IPO‑led process is welcome and valuable. But debate cannot
continue indefinitely. (Paragraph 249)
Large language models and generative AI 79
58. If the process remains unresolved by Spring 2024 the Government must set out
options and prepare to resolve the dispute definitively, including legislative changes
if necessary. (Paragraph 249)
59. The IPO code must ensure creators are fully empowered to exercise their rights,
whether on an opt‑in or opt‑out basis. Developers should make it clear whether their
web crawlers are being used to acquire data for generative AI training or for other
purposes. This would help rightsholders make informed decisions, and reduce risks
of large firms exploiting adjacent market dominance. (Paragraph 252)
60. The Government should encourage good practice by working with licensing agencies
and data repository owners to create expanded, high quality data sources at the
scales needed for LLM training. The Government should also use its procurement
market to encourage good practice. (Paragraph 256)
61. The IPO code should include a mechanism for rightsholders to check training data.
This would provide assurance about the level of compliance with copyright law.
(Paragraph 259)
80 Large language models and generative AI
Members
Baroness Featherstone
Lord Foster of Bath
Baroness Fraser of Craigmaddie
Lord Griffiths of Burry Port
Lord Hall of Birkenhead
Baroness Harding of Winscombe
Baroness Healy of Primrose Hill
Lord Kamall
The Lord Bishop of Leeds
Lord Lipsey
Baroness Stowell of Beeston (Chair)
Baroness Wheatcroft
Lord Young of Norwood Green
Declarations of interest
Baroness Featherstone
Former career in creative industries
Lord Foster of Bath
No relevant interests declared
Baroness Fraser of Craigmaddie
Board Member, Creative Scotland
Board Member, British Library (which houses the Alan Turing Institute)
Lord Griffiths of Burry Port
No relevant interests declared
Lord Hall of Birkenhead
Chairman, City of Birmingham Symphony Orchestra
Chairman, Harder Than You Think Ltd (start‑up documentary producer)
Member, Advisory Board, Qwilt (edge cloud application developer)
Trustee, National Trust
Trustee, Natural History Museum
Trustee, Oxford Philharmonic Orchestra
Trustee, Paul Hamlyn Foundation (independent grant‑making organisation
focusing on the arts)
Baroness Harding of Winscombe
Fellow, Royal Society of Arts
Baroness Healy of Primrose Hill
No relevant interests declared
Lord Kamall
Former member, Tech UK Brexit advisory committee (unpaid)
Member, Advisory Board, Startup Coalition (unpaid)
Consultant to two think tanks (IEA and Politeia) that have published on
AI
Non‑Executive Director, Department for Business and Trade
The Lord Bishop of Leeds
Trustee, Reading Culture (Bradford Literature Festival)
Large language models and generative AI 81
Lord Lipsey
Chair, Premier Greyhound Racing
Trustee, Mid Wales Music Trust (formerly Cambrian Music Trust)
Baroness Stowell of Beeston (Chair)
No relevant interests declared
Baroness Wheatcroft
Chair, Financial Times appointments and oversight committee
Lord Young of Norwood Green
Former professional engagement with BT
A full list of Members’ interests can be found in the Register of Lords’ Interests:
https://members.parliament.uk/members/lords/interests/register‑of‑lords‑interests
Specialist Adviser
Professor Michael Wooldridge
Scientific advisor for RocketPhone, a startup
Scientific advisory board for Mind Foundry and Aioi Nissay Dowa
Insurance and Aioi Nissay Dowa Europe
Royal Institution Christmas Lectures
Director of Foundational AI Research, Alan Turing Institute. Professor
Wooldridge agreed to a series of mitigations with the Alan Turing Institute
to mitigate potential conflicts of interest. These included agreements to avoid
disclosure of information relating to the inquiry, and the avoidance of policy
influence work for the duration of the inquiry relating to its core topics.
Professor Wooldridge’s work for the Committee was primarily in the area of
providing expert technical advice and relevant declarations were made to the
Committee throughout the inquiry.
Professor Wooldridge holds a variety of additional posts and academic
engagements: https://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/people/michael.wooldridge
82 Large language models and generative AI
Kairoi LLM0110
Dr Dmitry Kangin, Senior Research Associate, ELSA LLM0032
project, Lancaster University (joint submission)
Michael Karanicolas, Executive Director, UCLA LLM0020
Institute for Technology, Law & Policy (joint
submission)
Dr Dimosthenis Karatzas, Associate Professor, ELSA LLM0032
Board member, Computer Vision Center (CVC),
Barcelona (joint submission)
Dr Beatriz Kira, Lecturer in Law, University of Sussex LLM0049
(joint submission)
Dr Lingpeng Kong, Assistant Professor, Department LLM0031
of Computer Science, University of Hong Kong (joint
submission)
* Professor Neil Lawrence (QQ 1–11)
Local Government Association (joint submission) LLM0048
** Logically AI (QQ 21–28) LLM0062
* Dr Mark MacCarthy (QQ 46–50)
* Professor John McDermid OBE (QQ 64–72)
Dr Dan McQuillan, Lecturer in Creative and Social LLM0015
Computing, Goldsmiths, University of London
* Francesco Marconi (QQ 12–20)
Market Research Society LLM0088
Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory LLM0107
Agency
** Meta (QQ 73–82) LLM0093
** Microsoft (QQ 73–82) LLM0087
Mind Foundry LLM0030
Dr Alina Miron, Lecturer in Computer Science, LLM0061
Brunel University London (joint submission)
* Mozilla.ai (QQ 64–72)
National Union of Journalists LLM0007
** NCC Group (QQ 21–28) LLM0014
The News Media Association LLM0029
NquiringMinds LLM0073
Oaklin Consulting LLM0035
** Ofcom (QQ 83–94) LLM0080
LLM0104
Ofqual LLM0105
OpenAI LLM0113
88 Large language models and generative AI
Large language models (LLMs) are a type of generative AI, which have attracted
significant interest for their ability to produce human‑like text, code and
translations. There have been several recent advances, notably OpenAI’s GPT‑3
and GPT‑4 models. Many experts say these developments represent a step change
in capability. Smaller and cheaper open‑source models are set to proliferate.
Governments, businesses and individuals are all experimenting with this
technology’s potential. The opportunities could be extensive. Goldman Sachs has
estimated generative AI could add $7 trillion (roughly £5.5 trillion) to the global
economy over 10 years. Some degree of economic disruption seems likely: the
same report estimated 300 million jobs could be exposed to automation, though
many roles could also be created in the process.432
The speed of development and lack of understanding about these models’
capabilities has led some experts to warn of a credible and growing risk of harm.
Several industry figures have been calling for urgent reviews or pausing new release
plans. Large models can generate contradictory or fictious answers, meaning their
use in some industries could be dangerous without proper safeguards. Training
datasets can contain biased or harmful content. Intellectual property rights over
the use of training data are uncertain. The ‘black box’ nature of machine learning
algorithms makes it difficult to understand why a model follows a course of action,
what data were used to generate an output, and what the model might be able to
do next, or do without supervision. Some models might develop counterintuitive
or perverse ways of achieving aims. And the proliferation of these tools will make
easier undesirable practices, such as spreading disinformation, hacking, fraud and
scams.
This all presents challenges for the safe, ethical and trusted development of large
language models, and undermines opportunities to capitalise on the benefits they
could provide.
Regulation
There are growing calls to improve safeguards, standards and regulatory
approaches that promote innovation whilst managing risks. Many experts say this
is increasingly urgent. The UK Government released its AI White Paper in March
2023. It highlights the importance of a “pro‑innovation framework designed to give
consumers the confidence to use AI products and services, and provide businesses
the clarity they need to invest in AI and innovate responsibly”.433 Regulators are
expected to address key issues using existing powers. The Prime Minister’s Office
has expressed an interest in the UK becoming a world‑leading centre for AI safety.
Inquiry objectives
The Communications and Digital Committee will examine what needs to happen
over the next 1–3 years to ensure the UK can respond to the opportunities and
risks posed by large language models. 434 This will include evaluating the work
432 Goldman Sachs, ‘Generative AI Could raise global GDP by 7 per cent’ (5 April 2023): https://
www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent.html
[accessed 11 January 2024]
433 Department for Science, Innovation & Technology and Office for Artificial Intelligence, ‘A pro-
innovation approach to AI regulation’ (29 March 2023): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/
ai-regulation-a-pro-innovation-approach/white-paper [accessed 11 January 2024]
434 The main focus of this inquiry will be on large language models. The Committee will also examine
wider generative AI capabilities, though in less depth.
Large language models and generative AI 91
of Government and regulators, examining how well this addresses current and
future technological capabilities, and reviewing the implications of approaches
taken elsewhere in the world.
Questions
Capabilities and trends
1. How will large language models develop over the next three years?
(a) Given the inherent uncertainty of forecasts in this area, what can be
done to improve understanding of and confidence in future trajectories?
2. What are the greatest opportunities and risks over the next three years?
(a) How should we think about risk in this context?
Domestic regulation
3. How adequately does the AI White Paper (alongside other Government
policy) deal with large language models? Is a tailored regulatory approach
needed?
(a) What are the implications of open‑source models proliferating?
4. Do the UK’s regulators have sufficient expertise and resources to respond to
large language models?435 If not, what should be done to address this?
5. What are the non‑regulatory and regulatory options to address risks and
capitalise on opportunities?
(a) How would such options work in practice and what are the barriers to
implementing them?
(b) At what stage of the AI life cycle will interventions be most effective?
(c) How can the risk of unintended consequences be addressed?
International context
6. How does the UK’s approach compare with that of other jurisdictions,
notably the EU, US and China?
(a) To what extent does wider strategic international competition affect
the way large language models should be regulated?
(b) What is the likelihood of regulatory divergence? What would be its
consequences?
435 The Committee will be focusing in particular on the members of the Digital Regulation Co-operation
Forum (Ofcom, the Competition and Markets Authority, the Information Commissioner’s Office and
the Financial Conduct Authority).
92 Large language models and generative AI
Appendix 4: VISITS
commercial value in AI. The Committee also heard about the needs of AI start‑ups,
the limited level of funding in the UK and the attraction of scaling opportunities
in the US.
We are grateful to all those who took part in the discussions.