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In summary, it is feasible that human manipulation of marine ecosystems could store at least some
extra CO 2 in the oceans. In too many cases, decision makers and stakeholders concerned about
climate change. In developed countries like the United States, adaptive capacity may be higher, but
this has not been thoroughly examined to date and there are a large number of assets and people at
risk. SOURCE: Kasperson et al. (2009), adapted from Turner et al. (2003a). Many of these
opportunities are ultimately tied to the design and geometry of cities, which can foster more or less
energy use and emissions per capita as well as shape urban ecosystem function and biotic diversity.
Physical factors also give rise to substantial spatial variations in the pattern of observed warming,
with much stronger warming over the Arctic than over tropical latitudes and over land areas than
over the ocean. Key concerns regarding the interactions between climate change and security include
direct impacts on military operations; potential impacts to regional strategic priorities; causal links
between environmental scarcity and conflict; the role of environmental conservation and
collaboration in promoting peace; and relationships between environmental quality, resource
abundance, and. The resolution of climate models has also steadily increased, although global
models are still not able to resolve features as small as individual clouds, so these small-scale
processes must be approximated in global models. Scientists have learned a great deal over the past
50 years about the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere and the effects
of these changes on temperature and other climate change (CCSP, 2007a). However, sea level rise
estimates are rather uncertain, due mainly to limits in scientific understanding of glacier and ice sheet
dynamics. In response, the State of Oregon has taken a number of actions to adapt to changing
conditions, including coordinated planning approaches to climate change adaptation. For example,
global models have shown that the intensification of thunder-storm activity resulting from
deforestation in Amazonia can affect precipitation in the U.S. Midwest. To capture these phenomena
globally and with more accuracy, it is necessary to represent the global atmosphere at a very high
resolution, which remains a challenge, even with the computing power available now. All climate
models are fundamentally based on the laws of physics and chemistry that govern the motion and
composition of the atmosphere and oceans. A variety of methods have been used to estimate climate
sensitivity, which is typically expressed as the temperature change expected if atmospheric CO 2
levels reach twice their preindustrial values and then remain there until the climate system reaches
equilibrium, with all other climate forcings neglected. Developing improved understanding and
projections of hydrological and water resource changes will require new multiscale modeling
approaches, such as nesting cloud-resolving climate models into regional weather models and then
coupling these models to land surface models that are capable of simulating the hydrologic cycle,
vegetation, multiple soil layers, groundwater, and stream flow. Much has been learned in the past 25
years from comparison of independent radiometers at different stages of instrumental aging (and
solar exposure). In addition, improved analyses of the interactions of climate-related
variables—especially temperature, moisture, and CO 2 —with each other and in combination with
other natural and human-caused changes (e.g., land use change, water diversions, and landscape-
scale management choices) are needed, as such interactions are more relevant than any individual
change acting alone. Even if the frequency or intensity of coastal storms does not change, increases
in average sea level will magnify the impacts of extreme events on coastal landscapes. Organizing
your information and developing a list of what you need for your proposal will not only facilitate the
proposal development process, but will help you create a more bankable application that is more
likely to be funded. For example, approaches that are intended to offset globally averaged warming
may still lead to local- or regional-scale imbalances in climate forcing that could produce large
regional changes. While some research has focused on useful outputs for decision making and
adaptation planning (Luers et al., 2003; Moss et al., 2002; Polsky et al., 2007. The transportation
sector thus stands at the nexus of climate change, human health, economic growth, and national
security. The main research needs in this area are discussed in Informing Decisions in a Changing
Climate (NRC, 2009g), Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (NRC, 2010b), and
several other studies (e.g., NRC, 2005a, 2008g). For example, U.S. households could significantly
reduce their GHG emissions (and save money) by adopting more energy-efficient driving behaviors
and by properly maintaining automobiles and home heating and cooling systems (Dietz et al.,
2009b). Research on behavioral change suggests that a good portion of this potential could actually
be achieved, but further analysis is needed to develop and assess specific strategies, approaches, and
incentives. A synergistic approach combining state-of-the-art models, field observations, and satellite
imagery will be needed to advance our knowledge. A wide range of barriers and constraints make
“soft” solutions—such as changes in land use planning and, ultimately, retreat from the
shoreline—equally challenging. Developing countries are expected to face greater challenges in
dealing with the impacts of rising sea levels because of lower adaptive capacity—which is largely a
function of economic, technological, and knowledge resources; social capital; and well-functioning
institutions. In addition to directly supporting research on the Earth system and specific decision-
making needs, these observations are critical for calibrating and validating satellite measurements
and for developing and testing climate and Earth system model parameterizations. Conclusion:
Studies of autonomous adaptation as well as planned adaptation. However, the various SRM
proposals and their consequences need to be examined, as long as such research does not replace or
reduce research on fundamental understanding of climate change or other approaches to limiting
climate change or adapting to its impacts.
These techniques are not as well established and tested as global climate models, and their results
reflect uncertainties in both the underlying global projections and regional climate processes. This
research can also develop more realistic estimates of technology penetration rates given existing
barriers and assess the perceived social and environmental consequences of technology use, some of
which constitute important barriers to or justifications for adoption. Research is needed to match
climate change impact projections. These changes alter both the food webs of animals that ultimately
depend on these different sources of productivity, including humans (Grebmeier et al., 2006; Mueter
and Litzow, 2008; USGCRP, 2009a), and the role of high-latitude ocean ecosystems in the carbon
cycle. As a result, there are a wide variety of research needs for improving understanding of the
relationship between climate change and security, including the following. Energy efficiency
improvements are also under way in commercial passenger aircraft, but they are not expected to be
large enough to counter the expected growth in demand for air travel over the next several decades.
On top of these human-caused stresses, recent decades have brought an. Sign up for email
notifications and we'll let you know about new publications in your areas of interest when they're
released. The generally higher carbon monoxide levels in September are attributed to South American
fire emissions and the transport of carbon monoxide across the Atlantic Ocean from Southern Africa
fires. Irradiance observations during the indefinite future are essential to quantify solar radiative
forcing. Finally, there is a need to assess options currently not feasible. Continued losses of sea ice
and stronger warming at higher latitudes are expected to drive major habitat alterations in Arctic
ecosystems. Ice dynamics plays an important role in ocean productivity, and sea ice is a critical
habitat for many species, including birds and mammals. Advancing understanding of thresholds or
tipping points for climate change impacts. Thus, enhanced understanding of the complex interplay of
social, cultural, and technological change is critical to any strategy for limiting future climate change.
Two proposals for CDR—iron fertilization in the ocean and direct air capture—are discussed briefly
in Chapters 9 and 14, respectively. SOURCE: Courtesy of Colorado Center for Astrodynamics
Research, University of Colorado at Boulder ( ). Moreover, snowpack is melting as much as 20 days
earlier in many areas of the West. Therefore, and because of their universality, the physically based
approaches described formerly should be used in future studies of aerosol-cloud interactions. These
proxy data come from ice cores, tree rings, corals, lake sediments, boreholes, and even historical
documents and paintings. For example, an increase in warm temperature extremes, coupled with the
heat island effect, could increase heat-related health problems, especially for vulnerable populations.
For further details see Figure 15.1. SOURCE: Lenton and Vaughn (2009). This role of cities grows
even more significant when their environmental footprint is considered, including, for example, the
impact of urban dwellers’ emissions on local and regional air pollution and of their materials
consumption on distant deforestation. Until recently, models were needed to infer the direct forcing.
In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive
climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital,
and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented
programs. For example, the spectral dependence of cloud reflectivity measured from space has been
used to obtain the effective radius of clouds (e.g., Coakley et al., 1987; Nakajima et al., 2001).
Comparisons of the effective radius between pristine and polluted clouds have provided estimates of
the global indirect effect, although additional work is needed to improve the accuracy of these
estimates. Improvements in data assimilation systems have led directly to substantial improvements
in numerical weather prediction over the past several decades by improving the realism of the initial
conditions used to run weather forecast models. Altering surface reflectivity through changes in
impervious features (such as white and green roofs) is another potential action that warrants
consideration in many cities (see Chapter 15 ). The paleoclimate record indicates that such abrupt
changes have occurred in the past, but our ability to predict future abrupt changes is constrained by
our limited understand-. Though not predictive, such models and exercises can provide unexpected
insights into future possibilities, especially those that involve human interactions. Other important
feedbacks involve changes in other kinds of clouds, land surface properties, biogeochemical cycles,
the vertical profile of temperature in the atmosphere, and the circulation of the atmosphere and
oceans—all of which operate on different time scales and interact with one another in addition to
responding directly to changes in temperature.
However, models also indicate a strong seasonality in projected precipitation changes in the United
States, with drier summers across much of the Midwest, the Pacific Northwest, and California, for
example. The report includes six regional chapters and one urban chapter which reflect the different
climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and opportunities across Canada. A separate report, Ocean
Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean (NRC, 2010f),
examines ocean acidification and its potential impacts in further detail. The proportion of
precipitation that falls as rain rather than snow has increased across the western United States and
Arctic sea ice has been reduced significantly. In the context of climate change, certification systems
and standards are sets of rules and procedures that are intended to ensure that sellers of credits are
following steps that ensure that CO 2 emissions are actually being reduced (see Chapter 17 ). Some
of these, such as iron fertilization of the oceans, were mentioned above. They also need to consider
how their decisions and actions could interact with other environmental and economic policy goals,
both in and outside their areas of responsibility. Several research programs aimed at adaptation to
climate change and reform of social systems were inaugurated in 2010. The key processes that
control the abundance of tropospheric ozone and its interactions with climate change also need to be
better understood, including but not limited to stratospheric influx; natural and anthropogenic
emissions of precursor species such as NO x, CO, and volatile organic carbon; the net export of
ozone produced in biomass burning and urban plumes; the loss of ozone at the surface, and the
dependence of all these processes on climate change. The knowledge gained by these researchers
needs to be integrated and synthesized in decision-support frameworks that actively involve and are
accessible to decision makers (e.g., Kates et al., 2006; Moser and Luers, 2008). If the primary
objective is to keep the building blocks of biodiversity intact, it may be necessary to concentrate on
species that are globally endangered rather than trying to maintain populations of organisms that
could be significant locally but are not globally threatened. These policies and practices can be better
informed by linking downscaled climate models with hydrologic and fire-vegetation models to
determine, under different projections of climate change, which ecosystems will be most vulnerable
to wildfires (Westerling, 2009). In addition, the construction of channels and levees and other
changes in the lower delta have affected vegetation, especially the health of cypress swamps. Large-
scale social science data collection efforts, ranging from the census to federally funded surveys such
as the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the
General Social Survey, and the National Election Studies show the feasibility and value of long-term
efforts to collect high-quality social data. The design and evaluation of such mechanisms requires
collaboration across disciplines (including, for example, ecology and economics) and improvements
in the ability to link incentives with trade-offs and synergies among multiple services (Jack et al.,
2008). Valuation of goods and services that typically fall outside the realm of economic analysis
remains a significant research challenge, although a number of approaches have been developed and
applied (Farber et al., 2002). For example, climate change is sometimes confused with other types of
pollution or with other global atmospheric problems (especially the stratospheric ozone “hole,” which
some people erroneously think leads to global warming by allowing more solar radiation to enter the
atmosphere) (Bostrom et al., 1994; Brechin, 2003; Kempton, 1991). Changes in terrestrial ecosystems
could also potentially lead to abrupt climate changes. Many societal and cultural changes can be
traced to the confluence of individual and organizational decision making, which is shaped by
institutions that reward some actions and sanction others, and by technologies. Current plans for the
operation of the NPOESS spacecraft do not specify the needed (or any) overlap so that the long-
term record may be jeopardized. Research is needed to better understand the nature of these impacts
as well as ways to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector. These types of actions can
be controversial, however. In light of the IPCC's projection of future risk and proposed
countermeasures on a global scale, we have worked together and summarized research results with
the aim of answering the questions: How great is the risk of potential impacts to Japan?, and; How
effective are adaptation measures designed to reduce the risks. Such protection provided the
butterflies several options for adjusting naturally to climate change. Geoengineering encompasses
two different classes of approaches: carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management
(SRM) (see Figure 2.9 ). CDR approaches (also referred to as postemission GHG management,
atmospheric remediation, or carbon sequestration methods), several of which were discussed in the
sections above, involve removal and long-term sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 (or other GHGs)
in forests, agricultural systems, or through direct air capture and geologic. There is also great
potential in the use of mobile communications technology, such as cell and smart phones, as a
vehicle for social science research that has fine temporal and spatial scales (Eagle et al., 2009; Raento
et al., 2009; Zuwallack, 2009). Changes in heavy precipitation, runoff, and stream flow can also be
expected to have an impact on a diverse set of water quality variables. Because the global food
system is interconnected, it is not possible to view U.S. food security in isolation. Radiative forcing
calculations for these species require global three-dimensional characterization of their concentration
fields, the evolution of these concentration fields with time, and correlations with other radiative
forcing agents such as clouds and water vapor. SRM approaches, the focus of this section, are those
designed to increase the reflectivity of Earth’s atmosphere or surface in an attempt to offset some of
the effects of GHG-induced climate change. The Katrina disaster also illustrates how scientific
analyses alone are not sufficient to ensure an effective response.
Many environmentally significant decisions are made by organizations, including governments,
publicly traded companies, and private businesses. Changes in ocean circulations and heat transport
are also connected to the rapid disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. One of the
most important and well-studied approaches to decision making is deliberation with analysis (also
called analytic deliberation or linked analysis and deliberation). Energy efficiency improvements are
also under way in commercial passenger aircraft, but they are not expected to be large enough to
counter the expected growth in demand for air travel over the next several decades. Working with
subject matter experts in government, universities and non-government organizations, CCIAD
produces science assessments that are current, relevant and accessible sources of information, to
help inform planning of policies, program and actions. Human activities have also increased the
number of aerosols (small liquid droplets or particles suspended in the atmosphere). However, these
short-term, stop-gap measures are only designed to preserve the most critical long-term records and
do not represent a long-term, comprehensive strategy to observe critical climate and climate-related
processes and trends from space (NRC, 2008d). Additionally, the severity of future health impacts
will be strongly influenced by concurrent changes in nonclimatic factors as well as strategies to limit
and adapt to climate change. Several research programs aimed at adaptation to climate change and
reform of social systems were inaugurated in 2010. Moreover, significant gaps remain in our
empirical understanding of and ability to identify place-based vulnerabilities to the impacts of sea
level rise along the U.S. coastline. Considerable challenges also remain in translating whatever
adaptive capacity exists into real adaptation actions on the ground. The measurements must be made
from absolute, electrically self-calibrating radiometers on space-based platforms. Significant drifts in
instrument sensitivity can arise from changes in the space environment (solar exposure, thermal
drifts, spacecraft pointing, power instabilities) and in optical and electrical components. Space-based
proposals involve placing satellites with reflective surfaces in space. Better coupling of aerosols with
the hydrological cycle is needed; joint data assimilation of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation
properties should be pursued in the future. The scientific value of MODIS is discussed in Running et
al. (2004), Townshend and Justice (2002), and Schaaf et al. (2002). This instrumentation can be
related to the longer-term measurements from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
(AVHRR) and Landsat satellites as a monitor of land-use change and vegetation dynamics across
several decades. Our analysis—the details of which can be found in Part II of the report—indicates
that additional research, supported by expanded observational and modeling capacity, is needed to
better understand climate forcings, feedbacks, responses, and thresholds in the Earth system.
Research is needed on processes for providing decision support, including the operation of networks
and intermediaries between the producers and users of information for decision support. Although
few, if any, voices are promoting SRM as a near-term alternative to GHG emissions-reduction
strategies, the concept has recently been gaining more serious attention as a possible “backstop”
measure, because strategies attempted to date have failed to yield significant emissions reductions,
and climate trends may become significantly disruptive or dangerous. For example, individuals and
organizations are currently far less energy efficient than is technologically feasible or economically
optimal (Jaffe and Stavins, 1994; Weber, 2009). Some analyses have indicated the possibility of
major changes in ecosystems due to the combined effects of changes in temperature and
precipitation, potentially affect-. These hydraulic works significantly reduce the river’s delivery of
sediments to the delta between the city and the Gulf of Mexico, and thus the land-building processes
that would otherwise offset the gradual subsidence and erosion of the delta. Since radiative forcings
and climate responses are highly wavelength dependent, high spectral resolution is needed to isolate
the spectral signatures of the relevant processes and components. To improve this understanding,
routine observations of climate forcings will be essential, both as a record of change in the climate
system and as a critical constraint for climate models. Declassified data from the 1960s have already
been used for this purpose with great success (Csatho et al., 1999; Joughin et al., 2002; Stokes et al.,
2006). More recently, a large amount of sea ice imagery was released for scientific study (NRC,
2009l). It is strongly affected not only by the balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration
(the sum of evaporation of water from the surface and transpiration of water though the leaves of
plants) and the resulting effect on soil moisture, but also by other human influences such as
urbanization, deforestation, and changes in agriculture. Changes in the intensity of hurricanes have
been documented and attributed to changes in sea surface temperatures, but the link between these
changes and climate change remains uncertain and the subject of considerable research and scientific
debate. Typically, participants work with experts to generate and interpret decision-relevant
information and then revisit the objectives and choices based on that information. Several pathogens
that cause food-and waterborne diseases are sensitive to ambient temperature, with faster replication
rates at higher temperatures. Other measurements of global temperature changes come from
satellites, weather balloons, and ships, buoys, and floats in the ocean. In addition, leaders of federal
climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system,
improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages
between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs. A
coordinated strategy for promoting and integrating energy-related research is needed to ensure the
most efficient use of investments among these disciplines and activities.