MAGA ELEMENTARY STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY Eto hei On WTA, 2. cr Oy ayesLesson 16 BASIC CONCEPTS IN HYPOTHE: 1. Illustrate hypothesis testing and its basic concepts. 3 hours module, exercise sheet, writing materials iii Suppose a school superintendent reads an article which states that the overall mean score for the SAT is 910. Furthermore, suppose that, for a sample of students, the average of the SAT scores in the superintendent's school district is 960. Can the superintendent conclude that the students in his school district scored higher on average? At first glance, you might be inclined to say yes, since 960 is higher than 910. But recall that the means of samples vary about the population mean when samples are selected from a specific population, So the question arises, is there areal difference in the means, or is the difference simply due to chance (ie, sampling error)? In this chapter, you will lear how to answer that some question like mentioned eatlier by using hypothesis iesting. 16.1. What is Hypothesis Testing? AA scientist might want to know whether the earth is warming up. A physician might ‘want to know whether a new medication will lower a person’s blood pressure. An educator might wish to see whether a new teaching technique is better than a traditional one. These types of questions can be addressed through statistical hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing 's 2 decision-making process of evaluating statements or claims about population, These statements called Aypothesis may be conceming parameters such as means and proportions can be investigated. There are three methods used to test hypotheses. The traditional method has been used since the hypothesis testing method was formulated. A newer method, called the P-value method, has become popular with the advent of modem computers and high-powered statistical calculators. The third method is the confidence interval ‘method which illustrates the relationship between hypothesis testing and confidence intervals. At this point, we deal first with traditional method. 16.2. Basic Concepts in Traditional Method Define the population under study. ‘The first and perhaps the most challenging part of hypothesis testing is defining of the population under study. This step starts with appreciating the problem or question to be answered to have a clear uncerstanding of the direction of the study. Mareaver, you must have also identified the given values (parameters or statistics) which would probably help you get an answer to the question. Ther, you could be able to identify your claim. 110State the hypotheses. Secondly, the researcher must formulate the hypothesis to be tested. A statistical hypothesis isa statement or claim which tells an assumption about a population parameter. This assumption may or may not be true. The process of hypothesis testing will later be involved in making a decision about the claim. In testing hypothesis, there are two opposing types of statistical hypotheses which are: L. The mull hypothesis, denoted as Ho, is a statement that a population parameter (such as proportion, mean, or standard deviation) is the same to some claimed value, 2. The alternative hypothesis, denoted as H, ot Hg or Hg, isa statement that a population parameter (such as proportion, mean, or standard deviation) is not the same to some claimed value. It is complement of the null hypothesis. There are three nature of hypothesis testing: either nvo-tailed test or left-tailed test o¢ right tailed test. In order to sate the hypothesis correctly, the researcher must translate correctly the claim into mathematical symbols. As an illustration on the nature of hypothesis and how hypotheses should be stated, see three different statistical studies. Situation A ‘A medical researcher is interested in finding out whether a new medication will have any undesirable side effects. The researcher is particularly concerned with the pulse rate of the patients who take the medication. Will the pulse rate increase, decrease, or remain unchanged after a patient takes the medication? Since the researcher knows that the mean pulse rate for the population under study is 82 beats per minute, the hypotheses for this situation are: Ho: The mean pulse rate of the patients who take the medication is 82 beats per minute. Hy: ‘The mean pulse rate of the patients who take the medication is not 82 beats per minute. In mathematical symbol: Hy: w= 82 Hy w#82 The null hypothesis specifies that the mean will remain unchanged and the alternative hypothesis states that it will be different, This testis called a two-tailed test, the possible side cffects of the medicine coule be to raise oF lower the pulse rate. ituation B ‘A chemist invents an additive to increase the life of an automobie battery. The mean lifetime of the automobile battery without the additive is 36 months. The hypotheses are: Ho: ‘The mean lifetime of the automobile battery using the additive is 36 months, Hy; The mean lifetime of he automobile battery using the additive is greater than 36 months. In mathematical symbol: Hy: w= 36 I: 1 >36 In this situation, the chemist is interested only in increasing the lifetime of the batteries, so her alternative hypothesis is that the mean is greater than 36 months. The null hypothesis states that the mean is equal fo 36 months. This testis called right tailed test, since the interest is in an increase only. m1Situation C A contractor wishes to lower heating bills by using a special type of insulation in houses. The average of the monthly heating bills is $78. The hypotheses about heating costs with the use of insulation are: Ho: The average of the monthly heating bills using the special insulation in houses is $78. Hy: The average of the monthly heating bills using the special insulation in houses is less than $78. In mathematical symbol: Ho: a = 78 Ayn S78 This testis a left-tailed test, since the contractor is interested only in lowering heating costs using the special type of insulation in houses. Here are some used terms and its equivalent symbol. > < Is greater than Islessthan Is above Isbelow Is higher than ‘slower than Isonger than {shorter than is bigger than ‘ssmallr than Is increased 's decreased or reduced from = # Ic equals fenntoquatin Is no dtferent fom ‘sditlerent rom Hos nt changed from Has changed from Isthe somes Isnotthe same as A claim can be stated as either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis. However, the statistical evidence can only support the claim if it is the alternative hypothesis. Otherwise, the statistical evidence can be used to reject the claim if the claim is the mull hypothesis. These facts are important when you are stating the conclusion of a statistical study. Determine the statistical testo he applied. After stating the hypothesis, the researcher designs the study. The researcher chooses the comect statistical test. A statistical test uses the obtained data to make a decision about the claim, The values derived after successfully performing any statistical test plays an important role in deciding to reject or not reject the null hypothesis. That is, there are four possible situation that might happen in hypothesis testing as shown below. Ho true Ho false Correct decision Correct decision 112Recall that in reality the null hypothesis may or may not be true. The decision to reject or not to reject the mull hypothesis in on the basis of the data obtained from the sample of the population. In the table, A correct decision is mace when one rejects the null hypothesis when it is false. A correct decision is also made when one do not rejects the null hypothesis when itis true. A Type Ferror occurs if one rejects the null hypothesis when it is true A Type Terror occuts if one do not seject the null hypothesis when its false. ‘The decision is made on the basis of probabilities. That is, if there is a large difference between the value of the parameter obtained from the sample and the hypothesized parameter, the null hypothesis is probably rue. The next question is how large a difference is necessary to reject the null hypothesis? Here is where the level of significance is used. Choose the appropriate significance level. Together with statistical test, the appropriate level of significance must be determine. The level of significance or significance level is the maximum probability of committing a Type I error. This probability is symbolized by a (Greek ietter alpha), that is, the P(Type | error) = a. The probability of committing a Type I error is symbolized by B (Greek lerter bera), that is, ‘he P(Type II error) = 8. Although, in most hypothesis testing situations, B is not used or computed. Generally, statisticians agree on using three arbitrary significance levels (a): the 0.10, 0.05, or 0.01 level of significance. That is, if the null hypothesis is rejected, the probability of committing a Type I error will be 10%, 5% or 1% respectively. Moreover, the probability of a correct decision will be 90%, 95%, or 99%, respectively. In other words, whea a = 0.05, it means that the significance level is 5% and there is 5% chance of rejecting a true null hypothesis. In a hypothesis testing, theresearcher is usually the one who will decide whet evel of significance to use. It may depend on the seriousness of the type [ error. Some studies also suggest a specific a such a = 0.05 for social science studies. NOTE: “Recall the concept of confidence level in estimation. These are related concepts such that the confidence level is just the same as significance level.” Determine the critical value and the rejection regiow/s. After the significance level and statistical test is chosen, eritical value is selected from the table or appropriate statistical test. The critical value, also known as the tabular value, are the cut-off values that define regions where the test value is likely to fall. That is, the eritical value determines the critical region and the noncritical region so that appropriate decision will be made, The critical region or rejection region is the range of values of the test value that indicates thet the null hypothesis should be rejected. On the other hand, the noncritical region or nonrejection region is the range of values of the test value that the null hypothesis should not be rejected. In determining the critical value and the rejection region, there are different cases based flout dhe nature of hypothesis testing,In a ONE-TAILED TEST indicates that the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value is in the critical region on one side of the mean. A one-tailed testis either a right- tailed test or left-tailed test, depending on the direction of the inequality of the altemative hypothesis. In a TWO-TAILED TEST, the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value is in either of the two critical regions. yt One-Tailed (Left-taled) ‘One-Tailed (Right-tailed) Two tailed State the decision rule. ‘The decision rule isa statement that tells the criteria between the critical value and test value. This serves as guide for the researcher to decide whether to reject or not to reject the Ho. In the traditional method of hypothesis testing, we always follow the decision rule: “If the test value goes beyond the critical value, then reject the null hypothesis. That is, if the test value does not go beyond the critical value, then we fail to reject the null hypothesis.” Compute the test statistic. The test statistic or test value should be determined using the appropriate statistical test chosen in Step 3. This is ore of the requirements in making decision for the rejection and nonrejection of the Ho Summarize and decide to reject or not to reject the null hypothesis. Present the needed values for decision-making. Make a decision following the rule. Reach a conclusion. This part will state the conclusion as a result of the hypothesis testing. Moreover, some interpretation may be menticned earlier that will clearly describe the result of the test. © © Note: Your first encounter with hypothesis testing can be somewhat challenging and confusing, since there are many new concepts being introduced atthe same time. To understand all the concepts, you must carefully follow each step in the examples and try each exercise that is red. Only after careful study and patience will these concepts become clear. 9 9 4Exercise 16 BASIC CONCEPTS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING CHECK YOUR PROGRESS: Make a flow chart guide on hypothesis testing. Make it as original and comprehensive as possible. You may reduce the preceding concepts discussed on previous pages to ereate your own My Hypothesis Testing Flow Chest. MY HYPOTHESIS TESTING FLOW CHART. 115