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    Aali 070412 DB

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    Cristiano Donzaghi
    This document provides an analysis of Astra Agro Lestari, an Indonesian palm oil company. It notes that palm oil prices have reached an 8-year high of $605 per ton due to tight supply and strong demand. While Astra Agro's palm oil production fell 10% in the first quarter, higher palm oil prices are expected to more than offset this. The analyst maintains a "Buy" rating on Astra Agro, seeing the stock as attractively priced relative to its regional peers.

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    Aali 070412 DB

    Uploaded by

    Cristiano Donzaghi
    8 views1 page
    This document provides an analysis of Astra Agro Lestari, an Indonesian palm oil company. It notes that palm oil prices have reached an 8-year high of $605 per ton due to tight supply and strong demand. While Astra Agro's palm oil production fell 10% in the first quarter, higher palm oil prices are expected to more than offset this. The analyst maintains a "Buy" rating on Astra Agro, seeing the stock as attractively priced relative to its regional peers.

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    AALI 070412 DB

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    This document provides an analysis of Astra Agro Lestari, an Indonesian palm oil company. It notes that palm oil prices have reached an 8-year high of $605 per ton due to tight supply and strong demand. While Astra Agro's palm oil production fell 10% in the first quarter, higher palm oil prices are expected to more than offset this. The analyst maintains a "Buy" rating on Astra Agro, seeing the stock as attractively priced relative to its regional peers.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    8 views1 page

    Aali 070412 DB

    Uploaded by

    Cristiano Donzaghi
    This document provides an analysis of Astra Agro Lestari, an Indonesian palm oil company. It notes that palm oil prices have reached an 8-year high of $605 per ton due to tight supply and strong demand. While Astra Agro's palm oil production fell 10% in the first quarter, higher palm oil prices are expected to more than offset this. The analyst maintains a "Buy" rating on Astra Agro, seeing the stock as attractively priced relative to its regional peers.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 1

    GEMS: Asia Indonesia

    Global Markets Research Company

    Consumer Agriculture

    12 Apr 2007 - 09:21:10 AM WIT

    COMPANY ALERT Industry Announcement


    Astra Agro Lestari Buy
    Robust palm oil price outlook Reuters:AALI.JK Exchange:JKT Ticker:AALI

    Price (IDR) 13,800 At its 8-year high of US$605/ton (FOB)


    The recent rally has sent CPO price to its 8-year high at US$605/ton (FOB)
    Price target (IDR) 14,550
    being driven by 1) demand and supply imbalances - Malaysia reported its
    52-week range (IDR) 14,400.00 - Mar 07 plam oil inventory was at the lowest level in 19 months, and 2)
    6,000.00
    buoyant price outlook on soybean oil (substitute product) following bio-fuel
    Market cap (USDm) 2,392 development in the US. Our CPO price assumption is very conservative -
    Shares outstanding (m) 1,574.7 US$540/ton in 07F, US$510/ton in 08F, and US$490/ton in 09F onwards.
    Net debt/equity (%) -13.7 10% decline in 1Q07 CPO production
    Astra Agro's CPO production fell by 10% YoY to 200,662 tons in 1Q07 fol-
    Book value/share (IDR) 2,450
    lowing El Nino in 2H06 coupled with lower Fresh Fruit Bunch purchases
    Price/book (x) 5.63 from the 3rd parties. We believe this could be more than compensated by
    increase in CPO price. The company reported 30-40% increase in its CPO
    price in 2M07.
    FYE 12/31 2006A 2007E 2008E
    Reiterate Buy rating on Astra Agro
    Sales 3,758 5,167 5,539
    (IDRbn)
    We find the stock is attractive compared to its peers in the region, trading
    at 15.7x 07F earnings, some 25% discount to its regional peers. Astra Agro
    Net Profit 787 1,353 1,377 is main beneficiary from robust palm oil outlook because >95% of its earn-
    (IDRbn)
    ings come from palm oil.
    EPS (IDR) 504 859 874
    Global CPO vs. Soybean Oil price
    PER (x) 15.2 16.1 15.8

    Yield (net) 4.4 0.9 2.5


    (%)

    Astra Agro's CPO price (Rp/kg)

    Source: Company data

    Source: Bloomberg

    Rachman Koeswanto
    Research Analyst
    (+62) 21 318 9524
    rachman.koeswanto@db.com
    Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
    All prices are those at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.
    Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
    be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
    Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
    Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of
    DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access this IR at http://gm.db.com , or call 1-877-208-6300 to
    request that a copy of the IR be sent to them.
    THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ABOVE ACCURATELY REFLECT PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHORS ABOUT THE SUBJECT
    COMPANY(IES) AND ITS (THEIR) SECURITIES. THEY HAVE NOT AND WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY COMPENSATION FOR
    PROVIDING A SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATION OR VIEW IN THIS REPORT. FOR OTHER DISCLOSURES PLEASE VISIT
    HTTP://GM.DB.COM

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