Fouque Tutorial1
Fouque Tutorial1
Jean-Pierre Fouque
University of California Santa Barbara
1
PART 1: Review of the
Black-Scholes Theory of Derivative Pricing
1.1 Market Model
One riskless asset (savings account):
2
Risky Asset Price Model
Differential form:
dXt
= µdt + σdWt (3)
Xt
Integral form:
Z t Z t
Xt = X0 + µ Xs ds + σ Xs dWs (4)
0 0
or in integral form
Z t Z t
Xt = X0 + µ(s, Xs )ds + σ(s, Xs )dWs . (6)
0 0
3
Itô’s formula in differential form:
′ 1 ′′
dg(Wt ) = g (Wt )dWt + g (Wt )dt. (7)
2
More generally, when Xt satisfies
4
Application to the discounted price g(t, Xt ) = e−rt Xt
5
Lognormal Risky Asset Price
6
108
106
Stock Price Xt
104
102
100
98
96
94
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
Time t
7
1.2 Replicating Strategies
The Black-Scholes-Merton analysis of a European style derivative
yields an explicit trading strategy in the underlying risky asset and
riskless bond whose terminal payoff is equal to the payoff h(XT ) of
the derivative at maturity, no matter what path the stock price
takes. This replicating strategy is a dynamic hedging strategy since
it involves continuous trading, where to hedge means to eliminate
risk. The essential step in the Black-Scholes methodology is the
construction of this replicating strategy and arguing, based on
no-arbitrage, that the value of the replicating portfolio at time t is
the fair price of the derivative. We develop this idea now.
8
Replicating Self-Financing Portfolios
We consider a European style derivative with payoff h(XT ).
Assume that the stock price (Xt ) follows the geometric Brownian
motion model.
A trading strategy is a pair (at , bt ) of adapted processes specifying
the number of units held at time t of the underlying asset and the
riskless bond, respectively.
nR o RT
T 2
We suppose that IE 0 at dt and 0 |bt |dt are finite so that the
stochastic integral involving (at ) and the usual integral involving
(bt ) are well-defined.
The value at time t of this portfolio is at Xt + bt ert . It will
replicate the derivative at maturity if its value at time T is almost
surely equal to the payoff:
9
In addition, this portfolio is to be self-financing,
rt
d at Xt + bt e = at dXt + rbt ert dt, (15)
which implies the self-financing property
Xt dat + ert dbt + dha, Xit = 0. (16)
In integral form:
Z t Z t
at Xt + bt ert = a0 X0 + b0 + as dXs + rbs ers ds , 0 ≤ t ≤ T.
0 0
In discrete time:
atn Xtn+1 + btn ertn+1 = atn+1 Xtn+1 + btn+1 ertn+1 −→
rtn+1
rtn
atn+1 Xtn+1 + btn+1 e − atn Xtn + bn e
rtn+1 rtn
= atn Xtn+1 − Xtn + btn e −e ,
which in continuous time becomes (15).
10
The Black-Scholes Partial Differential Equation
Assume that the price of a European-style contract with payoff
h(XT ) is given by P(t, XT ) where the pricing function P(t, x) is to
be determined.
Cconstruct a self-financing portfolio (at , bt ) that will replicate
the derivative at maturity (14).
The no-arbitrage condition requires that
at Xt + bt ert = P(t, Xt ) , for any 0 ≤ t ≤ T . (17)
11
Eliminating risk (or equating the dWt terms) gives
∂P
at = (t, Xt ). (19)
∂x
From (17) we get
12
P (t, x) is the solution of the Black-Scholes PDE
13
The Black-Scholes Formula
For European call options the Black-Scholes PDE (22) is solved
with the final condition h(x) = (x − K)+ . There is a closed-form
solution known as the Black-Scholes formula:
1 2
log(x/K) + r + 2σ (T − t)
d1 = √ , (25)
σ T −t
√
d2 = d1 − σ T − t, (26)
Z z
1 −y 2 /2
N (z) = √ e dy. (27)
2π −∞
14
45
40
Call Option Price
35
30
25
20
15
10 Payoff (x − K)+
t = 0 price
5
0
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Current Stock Price x
Figure 2: Black-Scholes call option price CBS (0, x; 100, 0.5; 10%) at time
t = 0, with K = 100, T = 0.5, σ = 0.1 and r = 0.04.
15
European put options
We have the put-call parity relation
between put and call options with the same maturity and strike
price.
This is a model-free relationship that follows from simple
no-arbitrage arguments. If, for instance, the left side is smaller than
the right side then buying a call and selling a put and one unit of the
stock, and investing the difference in the bond, creates a profit no matter
what the stock price does.
Under the lognormal model, this relationship can be checked directly since
the difference CBS − PBS satisfies the PDE (22) with the final condition
h(x) = x − K. This problem has the unique simple solution
x − Ke−r(T −t) .
16
Using the Black-Scholes formula (24) for CBS and the put-call
parity relation (28), we deduce the following explicit formula for
the price of a European put option:
17
40
35
Put Option Price
30
25
20
15 Payoff (K − x)+
10
5 t = 0 price
0
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Current Stock Price x
Figure 3: Black-Scholes put option price PBS (0, x; 100, 0.5; 10%) at time
t = 0, with K = 100, T = 0.5, σ = 0.1 and r = 0.04.
18
The Greeks:
∂CBS
“Delta” : ∆BS = = N(d1 ) (30)
∂x
2
∂ 2 CBS ∂∆BS e−d1 /2
“Gamma” : ΓBS = = = p (31)
∂x2 ∂x xσ 2π(T − t)
−d2
√
∂CBS xe 1 /2 T−t
“Vega” : VBS = = √ (32)
∂σ 2π
The sensitivities with respect to time to maturity T − t and short
rate r are respectively named the “Theta” and the “Rho”.
In the general case of an European derivative whose price satisfies
the Black-Scholes PDE (22) with a terminal condition
P (T, x) = h(x), there are simple and important relations between
some of the Greeks −→
19
For instance, differentiating with respect to σ leads to the following
equation for the Vega:
2
2∂ P
LBS (σ)V + σx 2
= 0, (33)
∂x
with a zero terminal condition.
One can easily check that the Black-Scholes operator LBS (σ)
2 2 2 2 ∂2P
commutes with x ∂ /∂x , and therefore that (T − t)σx ∂x2
satisfies equation (33). If the second derivative with respect to x
remains bounded as t → T , this solution satisfies the zero terminal
condition, and we obtain the following relation between the Vega
and the Gamma
2
∂P 2∂ P
= (T − t)σx 2
. (34)
∂σ ∂x
In the case of a call option this relation can be directly obtained from
(31) and (32).
20
Using the same argument, by differentiating the Black-Scholes
equation with respect to r, one can obtain the relation between
the Rho and the Delta:
∂P ∂P
= (T − t) x −P . (35)
∂r ∂x
21
1.3 Risk-Neutral Pricing
Unless µ = r, the expected value under the objective probability IP
of the discounted payoff of a derivative (??) would lead to an
opportunity for arbitrage. This is closely related to the fact that
ft = e−rt Xt is not a martingale since,
the discounted price X
from (11),
dXft = (µ − r)X ft dt + σ X
ft dWt , (36)
which contains a non zero drift term if µ 6= r.
The main result we want to build in this section is that there is a
unique probability measure IP ⋆ equivalent to IP such that,
ft is a martingale
under this probability, (i) the discounted price X
and (ii) the expected value under IP ⋆ of the discounted payoff of a
derivative gives its no-arbitrage price. Such a probability
measure describing a risk-neutral world is called an Equivalent
Martingale Measure.
22
Equivalent Martingale Measure
In order to find a probability measure under which the discounted
price Xft is a martingale, we rewrite (36) in such a way that the
drift term is “absorbed” in the martingale term:
f f µ−r
dXt = σ Xt dWt + dt .
σ
µ−r
θ= (37)
σ
is called the market price of asset risk, and we define
Z t
Wt⋆ = Wt + θds = Wt + θt, (38)
0
so that
ft = σ X
dX ft dW⋆ . (39)
t
23
Using characteristic functions, it is easy to check that
θ 1
ξT = exp −θWT − θ 2 T , (40)
2
has an IP -expected value equal to 1 (Cameron-Martin formula).
It has a conditional expectation with respect to Ft given by
θ 1
IE{ξT | Ft } = exp −θWt − θ2 t = ξtθ , for 0 ≤ t ≤ T ,
2
which defines a martingale denoted by (ξtθ )0≤t≤T .
IP ⋆ is the equivalent measure to IP (they have the same null sets), which
has the density ξTθ with respect to IP :
dIP⋆ = ξT
θ
dIP, (41)
24
For any adapted and integrable process (Zt ),
⋆ 1
IE {Zt | Fs } = θ IE{ξtθ Zt | Fs }, (42)
ξs
25
n o 1 n θ iu(Wt⋆ −Ws⋆ ) o
⋆ iu(Wt⋆ −Ws⋆ )
IE e | Fs = IE ξt e | Fs
ξsθ
1 2
n 1 2
o
= eθWs + 2 θ s IE e−θWt − 2 θ t eiu(Wt −Ws +θ(t−s)) | Fs
1 2
n o
= e( 2
− θ +iuθ )(t−s)
IE ei(u+iθ)(Wt −Ws )
| Fs
2
( − 21 θ 2 +iuθ )(t−s) − (u+iθ)2 (t−s)
= e e
u2 (t−s)
−
= e 2 .
26
Self-Financing Portfolios
Vt = at Xt + bt ert .
The self-financing property (15), namely dVt = at dXt + rbt ert dt,
ft = e−rt Vt , is a
implies that the discounted value of the portfolio, V
martingale under the risk-neutral probability IP ⋆ . This essential
property of self-financing portfolios is obtained as follows:
27
Connection between martingales and no-arbitrage
Suppose that (at , bt )0≤t≤T is a self-financing arbitrage strategy
such that
so that the strategy never makes less than money in the bank and
there is some chance of making more. But
IE⋆ {e−rT VT } = V0
28
Risk-Neutral Valuation
Let (at , bt ) be a self-financing portfolio replicating the European
style derivative with nonnegative square integrable payoff H:
aT XT + bT erT = H. (46)
29
n o
Vt = IE⋆ e−r(T−t) H | Ft , (47)
30
The representation theorem says that any such martingale is a
stochastic integral with respect to W ⋆ , so that
Z t
IE⋆ e−rT H | Ft = M0 + ηs dWs⋆ ,
0
nR o
⋆ T
where (ηt ) is some adapted process with IE 0
ηt2 dt finite.
31
Using the Markov Property
For a standard European derivative with payoff H = h(XT ) the
Markov property of (Xt ) says that conditioning with respect
to the past Ft is the same as conditioning with respect to
Xt , so that the risk-neutral pricing formula becomes
n o
Vt = IE⋆ e−r(T−t) h(XT ) | Xt .
If we compare this formula (at time t = 0) with (??), the naive pricing a
standard European derivative, we see that the essential step is to replace
the “objective world” IP by the “risk-neutral world” IP ⋆ in order to
obtain the fair no-arbitrage price.
32
Solving the SDE (2) from t to T starting from x gives
2
σ
XT = x exp (µ − )(T − t) + σ(WT − Wt ) . (49)
2
Using (38), this formula can be rewritten in terms of (Wt⋆ ) as
2
σ ⋆
XT = x exp (r − )(T − t) + σ(WT − Wt⋆ ) .
2
As (Wt⋆ ) is a standard Brownian motion under the risk-neutral
probability IP ⋆ , the increment WT⋆ − Wt⋆ is N (0, T − t)-distributed,
and (48) gives the Gaussian integral
Z +∞
1 −r(T −t)
2
(r− σ2 )(T −t)+σz
2
− 2(Tz −t)
P (t, x) = p e h xe e dz. (50)
2π(T − t) −∞
33
In the case of a European call option, h(x) = (x − K)+ , this
integral reduces to the Black-Scholes formula (24) obtained in
Section 1.3.4, as the following computation shows:
Z +∞ −rτ Z +∞
x −
(z−στ )2 Ke − z2
P(t, x) = √ e 2τ dz − √ e 2τ dz,
2πτ z⋆ 2πτ z⋆
where τ = T − t and z ⋆ is defined by
1
x exp (r − σ 2 )τ + σz⋆ = K.
2
We then set
z ⋆ − στ z⋆
√ = −d1 , √ = −d2 ,
τ τ
which coincide with the definitions (25) and (79) of d1 and d2 . The
Black-Scholes formula (24) follows by introducing the normal
cumulative distribution function N given by (27).
34
Binary or digital options
It pays at time T a fixed amount (say one), if XT ≥ K, and
nothing otherwise. The corresponding discontinuous payoff
function is simply h(x) = 1{x≥K} . Its value at time t is given by
(48), which, in this case, becomes
Z +∞
e−rτ z2
− 2τ
Pdigital (t, x) = √ e dz = e−rτ N(d2 ). (51)
2πτ z⋆
35
1.4 Risk-Neutral Expectations and PDEs
We denote by (Xt,x
s )s≥t the solution of the SDE (5) starting from x
at time t:
Z s Z s
Xt,x
s =x+ µ(u, Xt,x
u )du + σ(u, Xt,x
u )dWu ,
t t
36
The Markov property is a consequence and can be stated as
follows:
IE {h(Xs ) | Ft } = IE h(Xt,x
s ) |x=Xt , (53)
which could have been used with s = T to derive (50) since WT⋆ −t
is N (0, T − t)-distributed.
37
Infinitesimal Generators and Associated Martingales
Consider first a time homogeneous diffusion process (Xt ), solution
of the SDE
dXt = µ(Xt )dt + σ(Xt )dWt . (54)
Let g be a twice continuously differentiable function of the variable
x with bounded derivatives, and define the differential operator
L acting on g according to
1 2
Lg(x) = σ (x)g′′ (x) + µ(x)g′ (x). (55)
2
In terms of L, Itô’s formula (9) gives
dg(Xt ) = Lg(Xt )dt + g′ (Xt )σ(Xt )dWt −→
Z t
Mt = g(Xt ) − Lg(Xs )ds, (56)
0
defines a martingale.
38
Consequently, if X0 = x, we obtain
Z t
IE{g(Xt )} = g(x) + IE Lg(Xs )ds .
0
39
For nonhomogeneous diffusions (σ(t, x), µ(t, x)) and functions
g(t, x) which depend also on time, (56) can be generalized by using
the full Itô formula (9) to yield the martingale
Z t
∂g
Mt = g(t, Xt ) − + Ls g (s, Xs )ds, (57)
0 ∂t
where the infinitesimal generator Lt is defined by
1 2 ∂2 ∂
Lt = σ (t, x) 2 + µ(t, x) , (58)
2 ∂x ∂x
and g is any smooth and bounded function.
Finally we incorporate
Rt a discounting factor by computing the
− r(s,Xs )ds
differential of e 0 g(t, Xt ) and obtaining the martingales
Rt Z t Rs
− r(s,Xs )ds − r(u,Xu )du ∂g
Mt = e 0 g(t, Xt ) − e 0 + Ls g − rg ds, (59)
0 ∂t
which introduces the potential term −rg.
40
Conditional Expectations and Parabolic PDEs
Suppose that u(t, x) is a solution of the PDE
∂u 1 2 ∂ 2u ∂u
+ σ (t, x) 2 + µ(t, x) − ru = 0, (60)
∂t 2 ∂x ∂x
with the final condition u(T, x) = h(x) and assume that it is
regular enough to apply Itô’s formula (9). Using (59) we deduce
that Mt = e−rt u(t, Xt ) is a martingale when Lt , given by (58), is
the infinitesimal generator of the process (Xt ) - in other words,
when µ and σ are the drift and diffusion coefficients of (Xt ).
The martingale property for times t and T reads
IE{MT | Ft } = Mt which can be rewritten as
n o
u(t, Xt ) = IE e−r(T−t) h(XT ) | Ft ,
41
Using the Markov property (53), we deduce the following
probabilistic representation of the solution u:
n o
u(t, x) = IE e−r(T−t) h(Xt,x
T ) , (61)
42
Application to the Black-Scholes PDE
When µ(t, x) = rx and σ(t, x) = σx in the SDE (60), we have the
Black-Scholes PDE (22) for the option price P (t, x) on the
domain {x > 0}, since
∂
LBS = + L − r,
∂t
where L is the infinitesimal generator of the geometric Brownian
motion X. The non-ellipticity
σ 2 (t, x) = σ 2 x2 (62)
43
1.5 American Options and Free-boundary
Problems
Optimal Stopping
⋆
P(0, x) = sup IE e−rτ h(Xτ ) ,
τ ≤T
where (Xst,x )s≥t is the stock price starting at time t from the
observed price x.
τ =t −→ P (t, x) ≥ h(x)
t=T −→ P (T, x) = h(x)
44
Because an American derivative gives its holder more rights than the
corresponding European derivative, the price of the American is always
greater than or equal to the price of the European derivative which has
the same payoff function and the same expiration date.
This can be seen by choosing τ = T in (64).
The supremum in (64) is reached at the optimal stopping time,
τ ⋆ = τ ⋆ (t) = inf {t ≤ s ≤ T , P(s, Xs ) = h(Xs )} , (65)
s
the first time after t that the price of the derivative drops down to
its payoff. In order to determine τ ⋆ , one must first compute the
price. In terms of PDEs, this leads to a so-called free-boundary
value problem. To illustrate, we consider the case of an American
put option.
It can be shown by a no-arbitrage argument that, for nonnegative interest
rates and no dividend paid, the price of an American call option is the
same as its corresponding European option.
45
The price of an American put option
n o
a ⋆ −r(τ −t) t,x +
P (t, x) = sup IE e K − Xτ ,
t≤τ ≤T
46
Free-Boundary Value Problems
Pricing functions for American derivatives satisfy partial
differential inequalities. For the nonnegative payoff function h, the
price of the corresponding American derivative is the solution of
the following linear complementarity problem:
P ≥ h
LBS (σ)P ≤ 0 (66)
(h − P)LBS (σ)P = 0, (67)
47
For any stopping time t ≤ τ ≤ T we have
Z τ
∂
e−rτ P (τ, Xτt,x ) = e−rt P (t, x) + e−rs + L − r P (s, Xst,x )ds
t ∂t
Z τ
−rs t,x ∂P
+ e σXs (s, Xst,x )dWs⋆ .
t ∂t
The integrand of the Riemann integral is nonpositive by (67) and,
since τ is bounded, the expectation of the martingale term is zero
by Doob’s optional stopping theorem. This leads to
n o
⋆
IE e−r(τ −t) P(τ, Xt,x
τ ) ≤ P(t, x),
48
In the case of the American put option there is an increasing
function x⋆ (t) - the free boundary - such that, at time t,
P(t, x) = K − x for x < x⋆ (t)
LBS (σ)P = 0 for x > x⋆ (t), (68)
with
P(T, x) = (K − x)+ (69)
x⋆ (T) = K. (70)
∂P
In addition, P and ∂x are continuous across the boundary x⋆ (t), so
that
P(t, x⋆ (t)) = K − x⋆ (t), (71)
∂P
(t, x⋆ (t)) = −1. (72)
∂x
The exercise boundary x⋆ (t) separates the hold region, where the
option is not exercised, from the exercise region, where it is:
49
1
P (T, x) = (K − x)+ K
0.9
0.8 EXERCISE HOLD
0.7
P =K −x LBS (σ)P = 0
0.6
P > (K − x)+
Time t
0.5
0.4
x⋆ (t)
0.3 P (t, x⋆ (t)) = (K − x⋆ (t))+
∂P ⋆
0.2
∂x (t, x (t)) = −1
0.1
0
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Stock Price x
Figure 4: The American put problem for P (t, x) and x⋆ (t), with LBS (σ)
defined in (23).
50
1
K
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6 τ⋆
Time t
0.5
0.4
x⋆ (t) Xt
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Stock Price
Figure 5: Optimal exercise time τ ⋆ along a sample path for an American
put option.
51
1.6 Path-Dependent Derivatives
In order to price path-dependent derivatives, one has to compute
the expectations of their discounted payoffs with respect to the
risk-neutral probability. Here are some examples.
Barrier Options
A down-and-out call option (European style) is an example of a
barrier option:
n o
+
P(0, x) = IE⋆ e−rT (XT − K) 1{inf 0≤t≤T Xt >B} | X0 = x .
52
These expectations can be computed by using classical results on the
joint probability distribution of the Brownian motion and its minimum,
obtained by the reflection principal.
Alternatively, the function u(t, x) given by (73) satisfies the following
boundary value problem on {x > B}:
LBS (σ)u = 0
u(t, B) = 0
u(T, x) = (x − K)+ .
53
Lookback Options
We consider for instance a floating strike lookback put which pays
the difference JT − XT where JT is the running maximum
Jt = sup0≤s≤t Xs .
⋆
−rT
P(0, x) = IE e (JT − XT ) | X0 = x
1 2
= xe−rT IE⋆ sup e(r− 2 σ )t+σWt − x,
0≤t≤T
54
The PDE approach:
The price P(t, x, J) of this option satisfies the problem
55
The problem of finding P(t, x, J) can be reduced to a one (space)
dimensional boundary value problem with the following similarity
reduction: ξ = x/J, and P(t, x, J) = JQ(t, ξ), leading to
2
σ
P(t, x, J) = − x + x 1 + N(d7 )
2r
2 1− 2r2
σ x
+ Je−r(T−t) N(d5 ) −
σ
N(d6 ) (75)
2r J
where
1 2
1 2
log(J/x) − r − 2σ (T − t) log(x/J) − r − 2σ (T − t)
d5 = √ , d6 = √ ,
σ T −t σ T −t
1 2
log(x/J) + r + 2σ (T − t)
d7 = √ .
σ T −t
56
Forward-Start Options (“Cliquets”)
A typical forward-start option is a call option maturing at time T such
that the strike price is set equal to XT1 at time T1 < T .
Its payoff at maturity T is given by h = (XT − XT1 )+ .
If T1 ≤ t ≤ T , the contract is simply a call option with K = XT1 .
When t < T1 < T2 , which is the case when the contract is initiated, its
price at time t is given by P (t, Xt ) where
n o
P (t, x) = IE ⋆ e−r(T −t) (XT − XT1 )+ | Xt = x
n n o o
⋆ −r(T1 −t) ⋆ −r(T −T1 ) +
= IE e IE e (XT − XT1 ) | FT1 | Xt = x
n o
⋆ −r(T1 −t)
= IE e CBS (T1 , XT1 ; T, K = XT1 ) | Xt = x
n o
= IE ⋆ e−r(T1 −t) XT1 N (d¯1 ) − e−r(T −T1 ) N (d¯2 ) | Xt = x ,
57
where d¯1 and d¯2 are given here by
√ √
1 T − T1 1 T − T1
d¯1 = r + σ 2 , d¯2 = r − σ2 ,
2 σ 2 σ
because the underlying call option is computed at the
money K = XT1 .
We then deduce
n o
⋆
P(t, x) = N(d̄1 ) − e−r(T−T1 ) N(d̄2 ) IE e−r(T1 −t) XT1 | Xt = x
−r(T−T1 )
= x N(d̄1 ) − e N(d̄2 ) , (76)
58
Compound Options
Example of a call-on-call option. For t < T1 < T , at time T1 ,
the maturity time of the option, the payoff is given by
59
Asian Options
As an example we consider an Asian (European style)
average-strike option whose payoff is given by a function of the
stock price at maturity and of the arithmetically-averaged stock
price before maturity like in an average strike call option (??). One
can introduce the integral process
Z t
It = Xs ds,
0
60
Using a two-dimensional version of Itô’s formula presented in
the following section, one can deduce the PDE
∂P 1 2 2 ∂ 2 P ∂P ∂P
+ σ x 2
+r x −P +x = 0, (78)
∂t 2 ∂x ∂x ∂I
to be solved, for instance, with the final condition
P(T, x, I) = (x − TI )+ , in order to obtain the price P(t, Xt , It ) of
an arithmetic-average strike call option at time t. This is solved
numerically in most examples (see the notes for a dimension
reduction technique).
Note that geometric-average Asian options are much simpler since
log prices are added leading to Gaussian random variables.
61
First Passage Structural Approach to Default
Credit risk. We consider here the problem of pricing a defaultable
zero-coupon bond which pays a fixed amount (say $1) at maturity T
unless default occurs, in which case it is worth nothing. In other
words we consider the simple case of no recovery in case of default.
Merton’s Approach
In the Merton’s approach, the underlying Xt follows a geometric
Brownian motion, and default occurs if XT < B for some
threshold value B. In this case the price at time t of the
defaultable bond is simply the price of a European digital option
which pays one if XT exceeds the threshold and zero otherwise, as
in (51). Assuming that the underlying is tradable and the risk free
interest rate r is constant, by no-arbitrage argument, the price of
this option is explicitly given by ud (t, Xt ) where −→
62
n o
d ⋆ −r(T −t)
u (t, x) = IE e 1XT >B | Xt = x
63
The First Passage Model
In the first passage structural approach, default occurs if Xt goes
below B at some time before maturity. In this extended
Merton, or Black and Cox model, the payoff is
64
Introducing the default time τt defined by
τt = inf{s ≥ t, Xs ≤ B},
one has
⋆
IE 1{inf t≤s≤T Xs >B} | Ft = IP⋆ {τt > T | Ft },
65
B+1/n
(n)
t τ τ T
t t
66
An alternative intensity based approach to default consists in
introducing default times which are unpredictable.
In the first passage model, a defaultable zero-coupon bond is in
fact a binary down-an-out barrier option where the barrier
level and the strike price coincide. From a probabilistic point of
view, we have
⋆
IE 1{inf t≤s≤T Xs >B} | Ft
2
⋆ σ ⋆ ⋆ B
= IP inf (r − )(s − t) + σ(Ws − Wt ) > log | Xt = x ,
t≤s≤T 2 x
which can be computed by using the distribution of the minimum
of a (non standard) Brownian motion. From the point of view of
PDEs, we have
n o
IE⋆ e−r(T−t) 1{inf t≤s≤T Xs >B} | Ft = u(t, Xt ),
67
where u(t, x) is the solution of the following problem
68
By using the method of images, the solution u(t, x) can be written
x 1− 2r2 2
B
u(t, x) = ud (t, x) − ud t,
σ
. (113)
B x
69
The yield spread Y(0, T) at time zero is defined by
−Y(0,T)T PB (0, T)
e = , (116)
P(0, T)
70
450
400
350
300
200
150
100
50
0
−1 0 1 2
10 10 10 10
Time to maturity in years
Figure 7: The figure shows the sensitivity of the yield spread curve to the
volatility level. The ratio of the initial value to the default level x/B is set
to 1.3, the interest rate r is 6% and the curves increase with the values of
σ: 10%, 11%, 12% and 13%. Time to maturity is in unit of years and
plotted on the log scale and the yield spread is quoted in basis points.
71
450
400
350
300
200
150
100
50
0
−1 0 1 2
10 10 10 10
Time to maturity in years
72
1.8 Multidimensional Stochastic Calculus
Multidimensional Itô’s Formula
We consider the generalization of the SDEs (5) to the case of
systems of such equations:
d
X
dXit = µi (t, Xt )dt + σi,j (t, Xt )dWtj , i = 1, · · · , d, (118)
j=1
Xt = (X1t , · · · , Xd
t ),
is a d-dimensional process.
We assume that the functions µi (t, x) and σi,j (t, x) are smooth and at
most linearly growing at infinity, so that this system has a unique solution
adapted to the filtration (Ft ) generated by the Brownian motions (Wtj ).
73
We now consider real processes of the form f (t, Xt ) where the real
function f (t, x) is smooth on IR+ × IRd (for instance continuously
differentiable with respect to t, and twice continuously differentiable in
the x-variable). The d-dimensional Itô’s formula can then be
written:
d
X ∂f
∂f i
df (t, Xt ) = (t, Xt )dt + (t, X t )dX t
∂t ∂xi
i=1
d
1 X ∂2f i j
+ (t, X t )dhX , X it , (119)
2 ∂xi ∂xj
i,j=1
where
d
X
dhXi , Xj it = σik (t, Xt )σjk (t, Xt )dt
k=1
74
Cross-variation rules
dht, Wtj i = dhWtj , ti = 0,
dhWti , Wtj i = dhWtj , Wti i = 0 for i 6= j,
dhWti , Wti i = dt.
Formula (119) can then be rewritten:
Xd X d 2
∂f ∂f 1 ∂ f
df (t, Xt ) = + µi i + (σσ )i,j i j dt
T
∂t ∂x 2 ∂x ∂x
i=1 i,j=1
Xd d
∂f X j
+ i
σ i,j dW t , (121)
∂x
i=1 j=1
75
Girsanov Theorem
In Section 1.4.1 we have used a change of probability measure so
that the one-dimensional process Wt⋆ = Wt + θt becomes a
standard Brownian motion under the new probability IP⋆ . We now
give a multidimensional version of this result in the case where θ
may also be a stochastic process. To simplify the presentation we
assume that the d-dimensional process (θt ) is of the form
(θj (Xt ), j = 1, · · · , d) where the functions θj (x) are bounded (see
the notes for less restrictive conditions such as Novikov condition).
Generalizing (40), we define the real process (ξtθ )0≤t≤T by:
Xd Z t Z t
1
ξtθ = exp − θj (Xs )dWsj + θj2 (Xs )ds , (122)
0 2 0
j=i
76
d
X
dξtθ = −ξtθ θj (Xt )dWtj .
j=1
77
Feynman-Kac Formula
The infinitesimal generator of the (possibly non-homogeneous)
Markovian process X = (X 1 , · · · , X d ), introduced in (118), is given
by
d
X d
∂ 1 X ∂ 2
Lt = µi (t, x) i + (σσ T )i,j (t, x) i j .
∂x 2 ∂x ∂x
i=1 i,j=1
78
Such parabolic PDEs with an additional source are also
important, If the function g(t, x) is, for instance, bounded, then
the backward problem
∂v
+ Lt v − rv + g = 0
∂t
v(T, x) = h(x),
79
Two Fundamental Questions:
1. Is the Geometric Brownian motion
under IP a good model for returns?
⋆
2. Under IP does it predict prices of
traded options?
Possible generalizations: local volatility,
stochastic volatility, jumps,...
80
0.4
0.35
9 Feb, 2000
0.3 Skew
0.25
Implied Volatility
0.2
Historical Volatility
0.1
0.05
0
0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1
Moneyness K/x
81