BIO 4214 CLIMATE CHANGE

BIOLOGY
CLIMATE CHANGE BIOLOGY
Lecturer: Dr. Jewel Liddell
 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
entered into force on 21 March 1994.
• To date, the 197 countries that have ratified the Convention are called Parties to
the Convention.
• Preventing dangerous human interference with the climate system is the
ultimate aim of the UNFCCC. The main objective of the Convention is to stabilise
greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

• The Convention states that such a level should be achieved within a time frame
sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure
that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner.
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body
for assessing the science related to climate change.

• The IPPC was created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• The objective of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to provide
governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop
climate policies.
• The IPCC currently has 195 members
Some historical information provided by the IPPC
• From 1880 to 2012, the average global temperature increased by 0.85°C. It is
suggested that, for each 1 degree of temperature increase, grain yields will decline
by about 5 %.
• There have been significant reductions in the yield of maize, wheat and other major
crops globally (roughly 40 megatons per year between 1981 and 2002 due to a
warmer climate).
• Oceans have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished and sea level has
risen. From 1901 to 2010, the global average sea level rose by 19 cm as oceans expanded
due to warming and ice melted. The Arctic’s sea ice extent has shrunk in every successive
decade since 1979, with 1.07 million km² of ice loss every decade
• Considering the current concentrations and on-going emissions of greenhouse gases, it is
likely that by the end of this century, the increase in global temperature will exceed 1.5°C
compared to the period 1850 to 1900. The world’s oceans will warm and ice melt will
continue. Average sea level rise is predicted to be 24 – 30 cm by 2065 and 40-63 cm by
2100. Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions are
stopped
• Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) have increased by almost 50 per cent since 1990
• Emissions grew more quickly between 2000 and 2010 than in each of the three previous
decades
• It is still possible, using a wide array of technological measures and changes in behaviour,
to limit the increase in global mean temperature to two degrees Celsius above pre-
industrial levels
• Major institutional and technological change will give increase the chances that global
warming will not exceed this threshold
Significance of the 350PPM & 400PPM levels Carbon Dioxide

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

• Preservation of the planet (maintaining the conditions that existed prior to civilisation/which
life on Earth is adapted) is necessary,

• Paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 must be reduced from
its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from
possible changes in non-CO2 forcings. Climate forcings are climate change indicators

• The main cause of a cooling trend in the atmosphere that began 50 million years ago was a
reduction in the CO2 levels

• The 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable if the use of coal is phased out, CO2 is captured,
and agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon are adopted.
• Several physical and chemical changes can affect the global energy balance and
force changes in the Earth’s climate.

• These changes can be due to natural or human factors.

• The changes are measured by the amount of warming or cooling they can
produce (radiative forcing).

• Positive forcings: occur when the changes have a warming effect

• Negative forcings: changes that have a cooling effect
• When positive and negative forces are unbalanced, the Earth’s average surface
temperature will change
• The figure shows the radiative forcing caused by various greenhouse gases based on
the change in concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere since 1750.

• Radiative forcing is calculated in watts /m2 (the size of the energy imbalance in the
atmosphere).

• Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere affect radiative forcing

• On the right side of the graph, radiative forcing has been converted to the Annual
Greenhouse Gas Index, which is set to 1.0 for 1990.
• In 2019, the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index was 1.45, which represents a 45-percent increase
in radiative forcing (a net warming influence) since 1990 (see Figure 1).

• Of the greenhouse gases shown in Figure 1, carbon dioxide accounts for by far the largest
share of radiative forcing since 1990, and its contribution continues to grow at a steady rate.
Carbon dioxide alone would account for a 36-percent increase in radiative forcing since 1990.

• Although the overall Annual Greenhouse Gas Index continues to rise, the rate of increase has
slowed somewhat since the baseline year 1990. This change has occurred in large part
because methane concentrations have increased at a slower rate in recent years and because
chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) concentrations have been declining, as production of CFCs has been
phased out globally due to the harm they cause to the ozone layer.
• Each coloured bar represents the
scientists’ best estimate, while the
thin black bars indicate the likely
range of possibilities.
• Greenhouse gases produced by human
activities have caused an overall
warming influence on the Earth’s
climate since 1750.
• The largest contributor to warming has
been carbon dioxide, followed by
methane and black carbon.
• Although aerosol pollution and certain
other activities have caused cooling,
the net result is that human activities
on the whole have warmed the Earth
Carbon Capture and Carbon Storage
• A large fraction of fossil fuel CO2 emissions has a long resident time in the
atmosphere: 25% remains airborne for several centuries.
• Thus moderate delay of fossil fuel use will not significantly reduce long-
term man-made climate change.
• Maintenance of climate requires that most of the remaining fossil fuel
carbon is never emitted to the atmosphere.
• Coal is the largest reservoir of conventional fossil fuels, exceeding
combined oil and gas reserves.
• One way to sharply curtail CO2 emissions is to phase out coal use (except
where CO2 is captured and sequestered).
• Phase-out of coal emissions by 2030 will keep maximum CO2 close to 400
ppm. However, this will depend on the use of oil and gas reserves and
reserve growth.
• However, even with the phase-out of coal emissions, CO2 would remain above 350
ppm for more than two centuries.
• Currently, no large-scale technologies for CO2 air capture exist, but with research and
development support and industrial-scale pilot projects sustained over decades, it
may be possible.
• Improved agricultural and forestry practices offer a more natural way to reduce CO2
emissions.
• Deforestation contributed to a net emission of CO2, some of which is still in the air.
• Reforestation could absorb a significant fraction of the net deforestation CO2
emission.
• Carbon sequestration in soil also has significant potential to reduce atmospheric CO2.

• Biochar, produced in pyrolysis of residues from crops, forestry, and animal wastes,
can be used to restore soil fertility while storing carbon over the long term. Biochar
helps soil retain nutrients and fertilisers, reducing emissions of GHGs such as N2O.

• Replacing slash-and-burn agriculture and using agricultural and forestry wastes for
biochar production could provide a CO2 reduction of ~8 ppm in half a century.

• More rapid removal could be provided by CO2 capture at power plants fueled by gas
and biofuels. Low-input, high-diversity biofuels grown on degraded or marginal lands,
with associated biochar production, could accelerate CO2 reduction
• Increased payments for carbon emissions and sequestration are among the
menu of measures to reduce emissions.

• If more coal is burnt and the CO2 enters the air, the natural drawdown of CO2 to
350 ppm would not be feasible. Indeed, if the use of coals is not phased out,
achieving the 350 ppm level will be impossible.

• A plan for the retrieval and disposal of resulting atmospheric CO2 if fossil fuel
use is not halted or reduced.
 Global atmospheric circulation - Polar, Ferrel and Hadley cells
• The movement of air across the planet occurs in a specific pattern. The
whole system is driven by the equator, which is the hottest part of the
Earth.
• Air rises at the equator, leading to low pressure and rainfall.
• When the air reaches the edge of the atmosphere, it cannot go any
further, and so it travels to the north and south.
• The air becomes colder and denser, and falls, creating high pressure and
dry conditions at around 30° north and south of the equator. Large cells of
air are created in this way.
• Air rises again at around 60° north and south and descends again around
90° north and south.
• Global atmospheric circulation creates winds across the planet and leads to areas of
high rainfall (e.g tropical rainforests and dry air such as deserts.
The Hadley cell
• The first cell is called the Hadley cell. At the equator, the ground is intensely heated
by the sun. This causes the air to rise which creates a low-pressure zone on the
Earth's surface. As the air rises, it cools and forms thick cumulonimbus (storm)
clouds. The air continues to rise up to the upper atmosphere, and the following then
happens:
✓The air separates and starts to move both north and south towards the poles.
✓When it reaches about 30° north and south, the air cools and sinks towards the
ground forming the subtropical high-pressure zone.
✓As the air sinks, it becomes warmer and drier. This creates an area of little cloud and
low rainfall, where deserts are found.
✓The Hadley cell is then complete. The air completes the cycle and flows back towards
the equator as the trade winds.
✓In the northern hemisphere, the winds flow to the right and are called northeast
trade winds. In the southern hemisphere the winds flow to the left and are called the
southeast trade winds. This is down to the Coriolis force and friction.
The Ferrel cell
• The Ferrel cell occurs at higher latitudes (between 30 degrees and 60 degrees
N and 30 degrees and 60 degrees S):
✓Air on the surface is pulled towards the poles, forming the warm south-
westerly winds in the northern hemisphere and north-westerly winds in the
southern hemisphere.
✓These winds pick up moisture as they travel over the oceans. At around 60
degrees N and 60 degrees S, they meet cold air, which has drifted from the
poles.
✓The warmer air from the tropics is lighter than the dense, cold polar air and so
it rises as the two air masses meet.
✓This uplift of air causes low pressure at the surface and the unstable weather
conditions that are associated with the mid-latitude depressions. Much of the
wet and windy weather in the UK is determined by this.
 The Polar cell
• At the poles, air is cooled and sinks towards the ground forming high pressure,
this known as the Polar high.
• It then flows towards the lower latitudes. At about 60 degrees N and S, the
cold polar air mixes with warmer tropical air and rises upwards, creating a
zone of low pressure called the subpolar low.
• The boundary between the warm and cold air is called the polar front. It
accounts for a great deal of the unstable weather experienced in these
latitudes.
• Thermohaline circulation refers to the global circulation of Earth’s ocean
waters driven by density differences that are controlled by temperature and
salinity.
• The worldwide system of ocean currents driven by thermohaline circulation is
called the global conveyor belt.
• The global conveyor belt is important because it helps to regulate the Earth’s
climate. For example warm waters brought from the tropics northward in the
Atlantic Ocean allow North America and Europe to have somewhat moderate
temperatures. Factors which might slow or stop the conveyor belt could cause
changes to temperatures in Europe and other parts of the world.
Literature Resources used
• https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/climate-change/
• USA EPA 2023. Climate change indicators epa.gov/climate-
indicators/climate-change-indicators-climate-forcing