Climate Change

Climate change refers to a large-scale, long-term shift in the planet's weather patterns and average
temperatures.
Climate change is the long-term shift in average weather patterns across the world. Since the mid-1800s,
humans have contributed to the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the air. This
causes global temperatures to rise, resulting in long-term changes to the climate.
Climate change evidence

How are humans changing the climate?
In the 11,000 years before the Industrial Revolution, the average temperature across the world was stable
at around 14°C. The Industrial Revolution began in the mid-1800s when humans began to burn fossil
fuels such as coal, oil, and gas for fuel.
Burning fossil fuels produces energy, but also releases greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane,
and nitrous monoxide into the air. Over time, large quantities of these gases have built up in the
atmosphere.
For example, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose by 40% during the 20th and 21st century
and is now over 400ppm (parts per million). In 2019, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was
higher than at any time in at least 2 million years.
A graph showing the global average temperature change from 1850 to 2022, compared to an estimate of
the 1950-1900 average. The plot continues to rise since the 1960s.
This plot shows the global temperature change from 1850 to 2022, compared to an estimated 1850-1900
baseline average temperature.
Graph showing the rising level of atmospheric carbon dioxide, showing an increase from roughly 320
parts per million in 1960 to over 400 parts per million in 2021.
This graph shows the rising level of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere since 1960.
Once in the atmosphere, greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide form a 'blanket' around the planet. This
blanket traps the heat from the sun and causes the earth to heat up.
This effect was noticed as far back as the 1980s. In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) was set up to provide governments with information to tackle climate change.
Evidence has shown that the high levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are the leading cause of
increasing global temperatures.
Scientists have been able to rule out natural events as causes of climate change, such as volcanic activity,
changes in solar activity, or natural sources of CO2. These may, however, have a very small effect, on top
of human contributions.
In their most recent report, the IPCC states that human activity is unequivocally the cause of climate
change.
Climate change is not just seen in temperature and carbon dioxide increases. We see it in many other
indicators of climate change, which you can explore further on our global climate dashboard.
How fast is the temperature rising?

Since the Industrial Revolution, the average temperature of the planet has risen by around 1°C. This is a
rapid change in terms of our global climate system. Previously, natural global changes are understood to
have happened over much longer periods of time. It is also important to remember that the world is not
warming evenly, so the temperature increase is higher than 1°C in some countries.
Spider graph showing the average global temperature for each month, from 1850 to 2017. On average,
most of the warmest years have taken place since 2001.
This graph shows the average global temperature for each month, from 1850 to 2017. The temperature
increases as you move away from the centre of the circle.Diagram showing the warmest years in the UK.
The 5 coolest years occur in 1885, 1888, 1892, 1919 and 1963, with the 5 warmest years in 2006, 2007,
2011, 2014 and 2017.
This image shows that the five warmest years have all occurred since 2006. Cooler years are blue, while
warmer years are red.
This graph shows us that global temperatures are increasing. As of 2018, the 20 warmest years on record
globally have been in the past 22 years. The Met Office’s State of the UK Climate report for 2021 shows
the ten hottest years in the UK since 1884 have all happened since 2002.
What causes climate change?
What is the greenhouse effect?
When greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide build in the atmosphere, they act like a blanket around the
earth. When sunlight (mostly short-wave radiation) hits this blanket, it passes straight through and
continues until it reaches the surface of the planet.
The earth then absorbs this sunlight and emits a different type of light, longer-wave infrared radiation,
back out to space. As it leaves the atmosphere, the infrared radiation also hits the greenhouse gas blanket.
Most of it goes straight through, but some of it is absorbed and goes back down to earth. This traps the
infrared radiation and causes the surface to heat – a process we call the 'greenhouse effect'.
It is crucial to understand that the greenhouse effect is critical to life on earth. Without a blanket of
greenhouse gases trapping in heat, the temperature would be bitterly cold, and humans would be unable to
survive. However, by adding extra greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, humans have created an
enhanced greenhouse effect.
The greenhouse gas blanket is now thicker and is absorbing more infrared radiation than before. In other
words, the greenhouse effect is stronger and, instead of keeping the earth at a stable temperature, it is
causing the planet to heat up.
What are the sources of greenhouse gases?

One-quarter of human-made greenhouse gas emissions come from burning fossil fuels for electricity and
heat production.
Chart showing the human-made greenhouse gas emissions. The biggest emissions come from electricity
and heat production (25%), agriculture, forestry and other land use (24%), industry (21%), and transport
(14%).
This chart shows the human-made greenhouse gas emissions, taken from the IPCC AR5 report. AFOLU
stands for Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use.
Another quarter of human-made greenhouse gas emissions come from Agriculture, Forestry, and Other
Land Use (AFOLU).
To feed our livestock and ourselves, people have chopped down large areas of the forest and used the land
to grow crops. Forests are very good at removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and so cutting
down trees allows carbon dioxide to build up in the atmosphere even more.
Land can also be used to rear livestock, such as cattle for meat and milk. These animals produce
additional gases, like methane. They also eat crops that might otherwise have been needed by humans,
meaning that even more land is required.
As well as fossil fuels, deforestation and land use, aeroplanes and the production of cement also
contribute to emissions of carbon dioxide.
How much warming could we see?

Greenhouse gases can live in our atmosphere for tens or hundreds of years. The gases that are already in
our atmosphere are effectively locked in and will contribute to increasing temperatures.
Even if we stop all emissions today, we cannot avoid some level of warming. The amount of warming we
will see, beyond what we have already caused, depends on the changes we make.
How will climate change affect the UK?

Our UK Climate Projections (UKCP) help us see how climate change might affect the UK in the future.
In a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5), we expect that the UK will experience:
Warmer and wetter winters

Hotter and drier summers
More frequent and intense weather extremes
In 50 years’ time, by 2070 we project:
Winters will be between 1 and 4.5°C warmer and up to 30% wetter

Summers will be between 1 and 6°C warmer and up to 60% drier
These changes could have a big impact on how we live our lives.

Climate Change

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Climate change refers to a large-scale, long-term shift in the planet's weather patterns and average

Climate change evidence

How fast is the temperature rising?

What are the sources of greenhouse gases?

How much warming could we see?

How will climate change affect the UK?

Warmer and wetter winters

Winters will be between 1 and 4.5°C warmer and up to 30% wetter

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