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Time Series Forecasting Using Python

The document discusses time series data and its components. Time series data is data collected over time that is dependent on time. The key components of time series data discussed are trend, which is the general direction of change over time, and seasonality, which is a predictable pattern that repeats over a specific time period.

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172 views

Time Series Forecasting Using Python

The document discusses time series data and its components. Time series data is data collected over time that is dependent on time. The key components of time series data discussed are trend, which is the general direction of change over time, and seasonality, which is a predictable pattern that repeats over a specific time period.

Uploaded by

pepito.supermarket.bali
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Time Series Forecasting

Using Python
What is Time Series Data?

Which of the following do you think is an example of time


series? Even if you don’t know, try making a guess.

Time Series is generally data that is collected over time and


is dependent on it. Here we see that the count of cars is
independent of time, hence it is not a time series.

While the CO2 level increases with respect to time, hence it


is a time series.
Let us now look at the formal definition of Time Series.

A series of data points collected in time order is known


as a time series. Most business houses work on time
series data to analyze sales numbers for the next year,
website traffic, count of traffic, the number of calls
received, etc.

Data of a time series can be used for forecasting. Not


every data collected with respect to time represents a
time series.

Some of the examples of time series prediction Python


are:
Stock Price
Passenger Count of Airlines

Temperature Over Time


Now that we can differentiate between a Time Series
and a non-Time Series data. let us explore Time Series
further.

Now as we have an understanding of what a time series


is and the difference between a time series and a non-
time series, let’s now look at the components of a time
series.

Components of a Time Series

Trend

A trend is a general direction in which something is


developing or changing. So we see an increasing trend
in this time series. We can see that the passenger count
is increasing with the number of years. Let’s visualize
the trend of a time series:
Example

Here the red line represents an increasing trend of the


time series.

Seasonality

Another clear pattern can also be seen in the above


time series, i.e., the pattern is repeating at a regular
time interval which is known as the seasonality.
Any predictable change or pattern in a time series that
recurs or repeats over a specific time period can be said
to be seasonality. Let’s visualize the seasonality of the
time series:

Example

We can see that the time series is repeating its pattern


after every 12 months i.e there is a peak every year
during the month of January and a trough every year in
the month of September, hence this time series has a
seasonality of 12 months.
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