Possible climate change impacts on large hydroelectricity

schemes in Southern Africa

P Mukheibir
Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town

Abstract environmentally neutral. Thirdly, potential declining

There is growing concern that developing countries, river flows due to climate change impacts may lead
such as South Africa, should reduce their coal to declining hydropower production, which in turn,
dependence for energy generation and look to will have an impact on the financial viability of such
other cleaner technologies. Hydroelectricity is one schemes (Harrison & Whittington 2002). For exam-
such option. A number of potential large hydro sites ple, Eastern African countries such as Kenya and
have been identified in Southern Africa, which form Tanzania, have in the past decade experienced elec-
part of the Southern African Power Pool. However, tricity shortages from hydroelectric plants due to
limited information exists on the impact of climate drought.Given its dependence on coal for electrici-
change on these sites and its effect on the viability of ty generation, hydroelectricity could be the key
the hydroelectric schemes. Using downscaled glob- source that reduces South Africa’s greenhouse gas
al circulation model information, projected climate (GHG) emissions. Large hydro schemes in the
impacts and the potential impact these may have on Congo and Mozambique could play a major role in
future hydro schemes are discussed. providing an alternative electricity source for South
Africa. However, climate change has the potential
Keywords: climate change impacts, hydroelectricity to impact on these initiatives, both positively and
schemes, Southern Africa, greenhouse gas emis- negatively.
sions Using two regional climate models (RCMs)
Tadross et al. have downscaled 10 years of control
and 10 years of future (2070–2079) Southern
African climate conditions, as simulated by the
1. Introduction HadAM3 general circulation model forced with the
Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations look set A2 SRES emissions scenario. Changes in early and
to rise given the threefold increase in energy late summer total rainfall and average surface tem-
demand expected by 2100. With a rising demand perature are presented for the projected future cli-
for electricity globally, the likely increase in fossil- mate (Tadross et al. 2005). Based on this informa-
fuel prices and the need for clean energy sources, tion, the potential impacts of climate change on
renewable energy sources, including hydro power, hydroelectric potential are discussed.
appear more attractive. Hydropower production is
set to increase threefold over the next century 2. Key sectors for South Africa’s GHG
(Nakicenovic et al 1998). Future plans for new emissions
hydroelectric plants, however, will need to consider South Africa is a semi-industrialised country with an
three major factors. Private capital may not favour emissions profile that in some respects is not typical
hydropower, since such facilities do not have short of a developing country. In terms of global environ-
repayment periods and high returns. Such invest- mental impacts, South Africa is one of the most car-
ments are best suited for public investment, which bon-emission intensive countries in the world, with
have to compete for other social services. Secondly, per capita CO2 emissions higher than those of some
hydroelectric plants based on large dams are not European countries (see Table 1) (IEA 2002). This

4 Journal of Energy in Southern Africa • Vol 18 No 1 • February 2007

 Table 2: Net electricity sent out (GWh) by fuel
is partly the result of its coal-based energy economy
Source: NER (2001)
and the high specific energy intensity of many sec-
tors. The greenhouse gas emissions per unit of eco- Total Share of total energy
nomic output are high (IEA 2001). sent out
Coal 189 900 93.2%
Table 1: Energy sector carbon dioxide
Nuclear 11 961 5.9%
emissions intensity and per capita in 2002
Source: IEA (2004) Pumped storage -816 -0.4%
Hydro 2 382 1.2%
CO2/cap CO2/GDP CO2/GDP PPP
tonnes/capita Kg/1995 US$ kg/1995 PPP US$ Bagasse 259 0.1%
South Africa 6.65 1.65 0.75 Gas 5 0.003%
Africa 0.89 1.16 0.45 Total 203 692
Non-OECD 1.65 1.33 0.45 Note: Negative values: Pumped storage uses more electricity in
pumping water up than it generates, and hence is a net
OECD 10.96 0.44 0.56
consumer. For gas (using aeronautical diesel fuel in jet
World 3.89 0.68 0.56 turbines), Acacia station consumed more for own use in its
Note: CO2 from fuel combustion only generation process than it generated in 2000. This is not always
the case.
The energy sector in South Africa, including
energy production and use, contributed 78% of
GHG emissions in 1994. As is illustrated in Figure There are some plans for new clean coal technolo-
1, energy is the primary source of GHG emissions, gies such as supercritical, fluidised bed combustion
with the most significant contribution coming from and integrated gasification combined cycle plants.
energy production industries (45% of total gross Desulphurisation is likely to be used for new con-
emissions). ventional stations, although this will considerably
increase capital and running costs (Kenny &
Howells 2001).
Cleaner electricity generation options with low
GHG emissions would include imported natural gas
feeding into combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs),
the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR), renew-
able energy and imported hydro.
Importing hydroelectricity from the Southern
African region is one of the major options for diver-
sifying the fuel mix for meeting the growing
demand for electricity in South Africa. South Africa
uses hydro to meet only 1.2% of its electricity
demand and currently imports electricity from the
Cahora Bassa Dam in Mozambique. However, this
is small in comparison with the potential at Inga
Falls in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),
Figure 1: South Africa’s greenhouse gas estimated to range between 40 GW for run-of-river
inventory by sector, 1994 to 100 GW for the entire Congo basin (Games
Source: Van der Merwe & Scholes (1998) 2002; Mokgatle & Pabot 2002).

More specifically, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 3. Mitigation and adaptation linkage
from electricity generation make up most of the The connection between sustainable development
South Africa’s energy industry emissions (Van der and climate change works in two directions , viz
Merwe & Scholes 1998). Therefore, the mitigation through mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and
potential for South Africa lies primarily in the ener- secondly adapting to the projected impacts due to
gy sector and more specifically in the electricity gen- global warming (Munasinghe & Swart 2005). In
eration sector. South Africa, this two-way connection is of particu-
Coal represents the largest source of energy for lar interest in the energy sector. As is illustrated in
sent out electricity and is the main reason for the Figure 2, South Africa needs to investigate mitiga-
high GHG emissions for electricity generation. In tion options against GHG emissions such as import-
future South Africa, is likely to build more conven- ed large hydro, but also need to consider the
tional coal stations to meet the growing demand for impacts of climate change on this source of ener-
electricity, which will increase the GHG emissions. gy.With this in mind, a scoping study was undertak-

Journal of Energy in Southern Africa • Vol 18 No 1 • February 2007 5

en of the potential impacts of climate change on would have a capacity of 39 GW . Even the run-of-
large hydros in Southern Africa (Winkler et al. 2006). river capacity would match South Africa’s current
total generation capacity.
The Western Power Pool, of which the Inga
plants would be a crucial part, would need to over-
come a number of hurdles. Technical problems
such as insufficient transmission capacity and line
losses over long distances would need to be over-
come to ensure reliability (Kenny & Howells 2001).
Furthermore, the interconnections between the
national grids within the Southern African Power
Pool (SAPP) would need to be strengthened
(Mlambo-Ngcuka 2003). Political stability in the
DRC is also a critical pre-requisite for using this
Figure 2: Two-way interaction between option.Inga Falls is not the only potential site in
sustainable development and climate change Southern Africa. Plans for increasing hydroelectric
imports from Mozambique to South Africa are
another option.
4. Major sources of hydroelectricity in
Southern Africa 4.2 Mepanda Uncua and Cahora Bassa –
The Southern African power grid is becoming more Mozambique
interconnected. Major plans under the New South Africa already imports electricity from the
Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) Cahora Bassa Dam in Mozambique (5294 GWh in
include proposed inter-connectors, as can be seen 2000) (NER 2000). The Mepanda Uncua site in
in Eskom plans shown in Figure 3. A central feature Mozambique is located on the Zambezi River down-
of this map from a South African perspective stream of Cahora Bassa, and has a potential for
includes importing hydroelectricity from Inga Falls 1300 MW and an annual mean generation of 11
in the DRC (40 GW potential). TWh. Installed capacity of 1 300 MWe at a plant
factor of 64% provides 7 288 GWh / year (NER
4.1 Inga Falls – DRC 2004).
The DRC currently has 1.7 GW of electricity gener-
ating capacity at its Inga hydroelectric facility. A 3.5 5. Potential impacts of climate change on
GW expansion (Inga 3) is planned and will be cou- regional temperature and run-off
pled with the rehabilitation of Inga 1 and 2 (Hayes The Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG),
2005; Poggiolini 2005). The proposed Grand Inga based at the University of Cape Town, has devel-

Inga

Mapanda
Uncua

Figure 3: Existing and planned Africa connector map

Source: NER 2003, citing Eskom

6 Journal of Energy in Southern Africa • Vol 18 No 1 • February 2007

oped climate projection scenarios for the Southern water would otherwise have been available for
African region. The climate change outputs from downstream uses as well as for the generation of
the models currently being used produce different electricity. Evaporation losses per annum have been
simulations. Whilst there are still many uncertainties calculated to be on average 1.1 metres of depth per
with regard to the magnitude, the direction of square kilometre of surface area. This could be
change appears to be consistent (Hewitson et al. much higher depending on the climate of the
2005).Climate change manifests itself in two distinct region. For example, this figure for the Aswan High
ways viz. change in temperature and change in Dam on the Nile River is 2.7 m, 11% of the reser-
rainfall. The projections and the likely impacts on voir capacity (Gleick 1994).
hydroelectric installations are discussed further. A study conducted in California showed that
hydroelectric facilities have average environmental
5.1 Change in temperature losses of 5.4 Kl of water per 10 MWh electricity pro-
Observational records demonstrate that the African duced (Gleick 1994). Deep dams with smaller sur-
continent has been warming through the 20th cen- face areas would be less affected that those with
tury at the rate of about 0.05°C per decade, with large surface areas.
slightly larger warming in the June to November Increasing temperature generally results in an
seasons than in December to May (Hulme et al in increase in the potential evaporation and given that
UNEP 2002). By the year 2000, the 5 warmest temperature is expected to increase globally it can
years in Africa had all occurred since 1988, with be expected that evaporation on large open waters
1988 and 1995 being the two warmest years. would increase. For both the Congo and Zambezi
The 2070 projections for temperature in catchments, the temperature is expected to in-
Southern Africa, indicate an increase everywhere, crease.
with the greatest increase inland and the least in the Changes in other meteorological controls may
coastal regions. Temperature is expected to increase exaggerate or offset the rise in temperature, such as
by approximately 1°C along the coast and 3 – 5°C wind speed and humidity. In humid regions, atmos-
inland of the coastal mountains (Tadross et al. pheric moisture content is a major limitation to
2005). Along with temperature increases, changes evaporation, so changes in humidity have a very
in evaporation are anticipated. Increases in temper- large effect on the rate of evaporation (IPCC 2001).
ature will have a corresponding increase in evapo- The catchment area for the Congo River is in a
ration. The converse is also true. high humidity area and therefore the potential for
increased evaporation would be low, whilst that of
5.2 Change in rainfall the Zambezi River is less humid and would have a
Currently, the equatorial area of sub-Saharan higher potential for evaporation.
African receives the most rainfall, whilst the south
western area receives the least (UNEP 2002).Using 6.2 Reduced run-off
the results of the simulated change for 2070 in sea- The direct impact of drought is that the run-off is
sonal rainfall, it can be observed that both RCM reduced and consequently the storage in dams is
models predict drying over the tropical western side negatively affected. Because the duration of
of the sub-continent, for the months of Oct-Nov- droughts can not be predicted with any certainty, it
Dec. For Jan-Feb-Mar, the models indicate drying to may be necessary to impose restrictions on the use
the west in the tropics, and an increase in precipita- of water. In South Africa, where restrictions are nec-
tion to the east and south east. . This is consistent essary, water to meet basic needs will always
with the statistical downscaling of multiple GCMs by receive priority in allocations, followed by strategic
Hewitson and Crane (2006). uses such as power generation and key industries.
In general, water for irrigation is restricted first
6. Potential impacts of climate change on (DWAF 2004).
regional hydroelectricity Climate change models indicate minimum
The change in temperature and rainfall has the changes in the hydrology of the Congo Basin,
potential to affect hydroelectric installations in four whereas other basins have significant vulnerability
major ways: to climate change (IPCC 2001).
i) Surface water evaporation In recent years there have been some interrup-
ii) Reduced run-off due to drought tions in some hydropower plants as a result of
iii) Increased run-off due to flooding severe drought. In Zimbabwe, Kariba contributes
iv) Siltration deposits 50% of the electricity needs, but generation
dropped by 8% due to drought in 1992 (Chenje &
6.1 Evaporation Johnson 1996). Kenya and Tanzania were forced in
The greatest loss of potential water resources from 2000 to ration electricity since the hydroelectric
hydroelectric facilities comes from the evaporation plants has been affected by persistent drought
of water from the surface of reservoirs. This loss of (Ongeri 2000). After the drought in 2004, all of

Journal of Energy in Southern Africa • Vol 18 No 1 • February 2007 7

Tanzania’s hydroelectric plants were operating at For the Zambezi catchments, climate change is
half capacity (EIA 2005). projected to increase both the temperature as well
For both the Congo and Zambezi catchments, as the annual rainfall. The impact of this will poten-
however, the average annual rainfall is expected to tially result in increasing evaporation on installa-
increase. tions with large dams such as those on the Zambezi.
In addition, it would result in an increase in the vol-
6.3 Flooding ume of water per annum, which could include peri-
Given that there is a predicted increase in annual odic flooding, that may in turn increase the amount
rainfall and that this may be due to increased rain- of sedimentation in erosion prone areas. Some
fall intensity and reduced rain days (Tadross et al. measures to reduce siltration might be needed on
2005), the occurrence of increased flooding can be the Zambezi River. There is little chance of drought
expected. impacts and reduced run-off.
Unexpected flooding can be detrimental to large Climate change models initially indicate mini-
dams where the large loads of sediments carried by mum changes in the hydrology of the Congo River
the rivers settle in the dams and lakes. For in-stream Basin. The impact of evaporation on this river basin
hydro plants, large logs and vegetation can cause is negligible, since the humidity is relatively high
damage or block up the system. However, in some and the key installation, the run of river power
cases, the increased volume of water could allow for plant, does not have any large dams or open
increased generation potential. waters.

6.4 Siltration 8. Conclusions

Siltration refers to the deposition of particles of the The increased use of hydropower is a key strat-
river load. Siltration is the consequence of erosion egy to reducing the extent of future climate change
which is prevalent in some part of Southern Africa due to GHG emissions. Based on this initial assess-
where rains and consequently rivers can be aggres- ment, a further investigation is required on a case
sive. Non-existent or sparse vegetation and the des- by case basis to assess the potential impact of a
iccation of soils during dry seasons can make the change in climate on the catchment sites for future
soils particularly vulnerable to the water action. planned large hydroelectric installations.
Siltration is considered a major threat as it Specific studies for these catchments are
lessens the life span of dams and irrigation struc- required to ascertain the magnitude of these
tures by reducing the depth of dams and hence the impacts. The consideration of specific adaptation
storage capacity. This can reduce the potential of interventions at design and operation stages will
dams to generate hydroelectricity. need to be based on the projections from regional
The construction of berms and swales upstream climate models. Improved confidence levels are
would help reduce siltration in areas where the ero- needed for the results of these projections for plan-
sion potential is high. This would most likely be rel- ners to consider their implications without having to
evant to the Zambezi River. integrate wide ranging scenarios.

7. Summary
The overall assessment of climate change impacts
on potential hydroelectricity in Southern Africa is
shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Potential impact of climate change on hydroelectric facilities in Southern Africa

8 Journal of Energy in Southern Africa • Vol 18 No 1 • February 2007

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