Institutional Equities

CCL Products (India) (CCLP)

BUY
Beverages | Company Update
CMP: Rs576 | Target Price (TP): Rs820 | Upside: 42% March 21, 2024

Coffee prices at historic high; Demand situation intact

Est Change Downward
Key Points
TP Change Upward
 Robusta prices YTDCY2024 are trading ~30% higher than CY23 average, Rating Change No change
which itself was ~30% higher than 10-yr average. Investors are concerned
about the working capital requirements associated with it for CCLP. Company Data and Valuation Summary
Reuters: CCLP.BO
 While we believe that the management’s debt guidance largely factors in
the anticipated price increase, our stress test suggests EPS downside in Bloomberg: CCLP IN Equity

the ‘worst case scenario’ to be 9%/7% in FY25E/FY26E. Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn): 76.6 / 923.9
52 Wk H / L (Rs): 750 / 542
 Despite supply side challenges, demand continues to be solid and CCLP
Initiating Coverage

ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$): 98.9 / 1.2

has commissioned India capacity during 4QFY24. Maintain Buy (25x PE)
Stock performance (%) 1M/6M/1yr: (11.5) / (8.4) / 3.0
post roll-forward of valuation to FY26E earnings.
Nifty 50 performance (%) 1M/6M/1yr: (0.9) / 2.3 / 27.7

Stress test suggests maximum EPS downside of high single digits:

Shareholding 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24
During FY24, the management has guided for working capital requirement of Promoters 46.3 46.3 46.3
Rs11bn for FY25 (FY23 base was Rs7bn). We believe that the management DIIs 21.0 21.4 21.4
has already factored in a large part of the anticipated price increase in FIIs 7.7 7.8 7.8
Robusta in its guidance. However, considering the magnitude of increase in Others 25.0 24.6 24.5
prices post Nov’23, we did a stress test wherein we assumed three scenarios Pro pledge 0.0 0.0 0.0
(refer table below) of increase in short term debt (20%/30%/40%). EPS impact
Financial and Valuation Summary
in the first two scenarios is in low single digit and mid-single digit, respectively.
Particulars (Rsmn) FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Our ‘worst case scenario’ can lead to EPS downgrades by 9%/7% in
Net Sales 20,712 25,989 32,698 39,905
FY25E/FY26E from our current estimates. Growth YoY% 41.7 25.5 25.8 22.0
Scenario analysis with short-term debt as the variable Gross margin % 45.5 46.9 47.6 48.9
Current estimates STD higher by 20% STD higher by 30% STD higher by 40%
Particulars (Rsmn) EBITDA 3,999 4,691 5,900 7,170
FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E
Long-term debt (LTD) 6,000 4,500 6,000 4,500 6,000 4,500 6,000 4,500
EBITDA margin % 19.3 18.0 18.0 18.0
Short-term debt (STD) 11,000 11,000 13,200 13,200 14,300 14,300 15,400 15,400 Adj PAT 2,840 2,717 3,245 4,348
Total debt 17,000 15,500 19,200 17,700 20,300 18,800 21,400 19,900 Growth YoY% 39.0 -4.3 19.4 34.0
Interest costs 1,115 1,044 1,259 1,192 1,331 1,266 1,404 1,340
Adj EPS 21.3 20.4 24.4 32.7
PAT 3,245 4,348 3,101 4,200 3,029 4,126 2,957 4,052
EPS 24.4 32.7 23.3 31.6 22.8 31.0 22.2 30.5 RoCE (pre-tax) 15.6 13.7 13.8 15.6
Potential downside in EPS -4% -3% -7% -5% -9% -7% RoCE 14.5 12.2 12.1 13.5
TP at 25x on FY26E 820 790 780 760
RoE 20.7 17.1 18.0 21.0
TP at 22x on FY26E 720 690 680 670
TP at 20x on FY26E 650 630 620 610 P/E 27.0 28.2 23.6 17.6
Upside from CMP @25x 42% 37% 35% 32% EV/EBITDA 21.2 19.2 15.7 12.8
Upside from CMP @22x 25% 20% 18% 16%
P/BV 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.5
Upside from CMP @20x 13% 9% 8% 6%
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Bloomberg, Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional
Equities Research
Expansion plans on track: The management believes that there is no sign
of demand slowdown and the underlying demand continues to be robust.
CCLP has commissioned its India SDC facility during 4QFY24 at the right time
while expansion in Vietnam is also on track.
Outlook & Valuation: We remain positive on CCLP, backed by 20%+ volume
& EBITDA CAGR over FY24E-FY26E. Supply side challenges would impact
smaller players disproportionately, in our view. Maintain BUY with a revised
TP of Rs820 (25x PE on FY26E earnings).
Please refer to the disclaimer towards the end of the document.

Abhishek Navalgund
Research Analyst
abhishek.navalgund@nirmalbang.com
+91-22-6273-8089
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 1: Robusta prices continue to trade at historic high
US ICO Colombian Brazilian ICO Colombian Brazilian
Other Milds Robustas Other Milds Robustas
Cents/lb Composite Milds Naturals Composite Milds Naturals
2005 89 116 115 102 51
2006 96 117 114 104 68 7% 1% 0% 2% 34%
2007 108 126 124 112 87 12% 8% 8% 8% 28%
2008 124 144 140 127 105 15% 15% 13% 13% 22%
2009 116 177 144 115 75 -7% 23% 3% -9% -29%
2010 147 225 196 154 79 27% 27% 36% 33% 6%
2011 210 284 271 248 109 43% 26% 38% 61% 39%
2012 156 202 186 175 103 -26% -29% -31% -29% -6%
2013 120 148 140 122 94 -24% -27% -25% -30% -8%
2014 155 198 200 172 100 30% 34% 44% 40% 7%
2015 125 152 160 132 88 -20% -23% -20% -23% -12%
2016 127 155 164 138 89 2% 2% 2% 4% 1%
2017 127 152 151 132 101 0% -2% -8% -4% 14%
2018 109 137 133 114 85 -14% -10% -12% -14% -16%
2019 101 134 131 102 74 -8% -2% -2% -11% -13%
2020 106 154 148 105 69 6% 16% 13% 3% -7%
2021 152 221 206 163 90 43% 43% 39% 55% 31%
2022 191 279 255 213 104 25% 27% 24% 31% 15%
2023 165 209 206 174 119 -13% -25% -19% -18% 15%
YTD2024 181 208 207 184 155 10% 0% 1% 6% 30%

Source: ICO, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 2: Revenue CAGR at 24% for FY24-FY26E Exhibit 3: EBITDA CAGR at 24% for FY24-FY26E
Rsmn Rsmn
45,000 41.7% 45% 8,000 25.8%
30%
40,000 40% 7,000 21.5% 25%
20.8%
35,000 35%
6,000 17.3% 20%
30,000 25.8% 30%
22.0%
25,000 25% 5,000 11.2% 15%
17.7%
20,000 25.5% 20% 4,000 10%
15,000 15%
4.2%
3,000 5%
10,000 9.1% 10%
5,000 5% 2,000 0%
FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E

Revenue Growth YoY EBITDA Growth YoY

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 4: Adj. PAT CAGR at 27% for FY24-FY26E Exhibit 5: EBITDA/kg trend
Rsmn Rs
4,000 39.0% 45% 120 116
3,500 34.0% 40% 115
35% 108
3,000 110 108 107 107 108 108
30%
2,500 19.4% 25% 105 103
12.1%
20% 98
2,000 100 95
9.8% 15% 94
1,500 10% 95 91
89
1,000 5% 90
-4.3% 0%
500 -5% 85
- -10% 80
FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24E

FY25E

FY26E

FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E

Adj. PAT Growth YoY

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

2 CCL Products (India)

 Institutional Equities

Exhibit 6: ROCE (pre-tax) trend Exhibit 7: ROE trend

% %
20 25
17.2 21.0
18 20.7
15.8 15.6 15.6
16 20 18.1 17.5 18.0
13.7 13.8 17.1
14
12 15
10
8 10
6
4 5
2
0 0
FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 8: CCLP’s above average capex momentum to continue over FY24E-FY26E

Rsmn
7,000
6,010
6,000

5,000

4,000 3,323
3,000
3,000 2,328 2,413
1,899
2,000 1,546
1,200
872
1,000 597 638
207 183
-
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E

Source:Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 9: Working Capital Cycle

days
180 162 165
151 152
160 142 144 146
140 124
120 112 110
100 105
97 93 94 96
100 81 8385
74 77 72 74 74
80 7065 67
63 62
54 5559
60 47
40 19
13 17 19 17 18
20 11 11 7
4 4
0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E

Debtors days Inventory days Payable days Cash conversion cycle

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

3 CCL Products (India)

 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 10: Change in earnings estimates
Consolidated Old Estimates New estimates Change (%)
(Rsmn) FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E
Revenue 25,989 32,698 39,905 25,989 32,698 39,905 - - -
EBITDA 4,691 6,144 7,375 4,691 5,900 7,170 - -4% -3%
EBITDA % 18.0% 18.8% 18.5% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% - -76bps -53bps
APAT 2,717 3,459 4,531 2,717 3,245 4,348 - -6% -4%
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 11: 1-year forward PE trend Exhibit 12: 1-year forward EV/EBITDA trend
x x
35 22
20
30
18
25 16

20 14
12
15
10
10 8
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23
Mar-19

Nov-19
Mar-20

Nov-20
Mar-21

Nov-21
Mar-22

Nov-22
Mar-23

Nov-23
Mar-24

Jul-23
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24
1-yr Fwd PE 5-yr median +1 SD -1SD 1-yr Fwd EV/EBITDA 5-yr Median +1 SD -1 SD

Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

4 CCL Products (India)

 Institutional Equities
Financials
 Exhibit 13: Income statement Exhibit 14: Cash flow
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E Y/E March (Rsmn) FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Sales 14,620 20,712 25,989 32,698 39,905 PBT 2,613 3,050 3,042 3,705 5,019
Growth YoY% 17.7 41.7 25.5 25.8 22.0 Depreciation 575 637 931 1,264 1,408
COGS 7,229 11,296 13,800 17,134 20,408 Interest 164 344 805 1,115 1,044
Gross margin % 50.6 45.5 46.9 47.6 48.9 Other adjustments 199 176 -87 -184 -301
Staff costs 977 1,135 1,624 1,962 2,431 Change in Working capital -1,998 -1,874 -2,284 -3,491 -2,958
Other expenses 3,104 4,283 5,874 7,702 9,897 Tax paid -390 -350 -325 -460 -671
EBITDA 3,311 3,999 4,691 5,900 7,170 Operating cash flow 1,162 1,983 2,082 1,949 3,541
Growth YoY% 11.2 20.8 17.3 25.8 21.5 Capex -1,899 -3,323 -6,010 -3,000 -1,200
EBITDA margin % 22.6 19.3 18.0 18.0 18.0 Free cash flow -737 -1,339 -3,928 -1,051 2,341
Depreciation 575 637 931 1,264 1,408 Other investing activities -17 1 165 246 239
EBIT 2,736 3,361 3,760 4,635 5,762 Investing cash flow -1,917 -3,321 -5,845 -2,754 -961
Interest 164 344 805 1,115 1,044 Issuance of share capital - - - - -
Other income 41 33 87 184 301 Movement of Debt 916 2,646 4,839 3,000 -1,500
PBT (bei) 2,613 3,050 3,042 3,705 5,019 Dividend paid (incl DDT) -665 -665 -815 -974 -1,304
PBT 2,613 3,050 3,042 3,705 5,019 Other financing activities -164 -344 -422 -809 -646
ETR 21.8 6.9 10.7 12.4 13.4 Financing cash flow 87 1,636 3,602 1,218 -3,450
PAT 2,044 2,840 2,717 3,245 4,348 Net change in cash flow -667 298 -161 414 -870
Adj PAT 2,044 2,840 2,717 3,245 4,348 Opening C&CE 1,195 528 835 673 1,087
Growth YoY% 12.1 39.0 -4.3 19.4 34.0 Closing C&CE 528 835 673 1,087 217
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Exhibit 15: Balance sheet
Exhibit 16: Key ratios
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Y/E March FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Share capital 266 266 266 266 266
Per share (Rs)
Reserves 12,241 14,707 16,609 18,880 21,924
Adj EPS 15.4 21.3 20.4 24.4 32.7
Net worth 12,507 14,973 16,875 19,146 22,190
Book value 94.0 112.6 126.8 143.9 166.8
Long term debt 1,117 2,008 5,500 6,000 4,500
DPS 5.0 5.5 6.1 7.3 9.8
Short term debt 5,390 7,153 8,500 11,000 11,000 Valuation (x)
Total debt 6,508 9,161 14,000 17,000 15,500 P/Sales 5.2 3.7 2.9 2.3 1.9
Other non-current liabilities 774 638 1,021 1,327 1,726 EV/sales 5.6 4.1 3.5 2.8 2.3
Total Equity & Liabilities 19,789 24,772 31,896 37,474 39,416 EV/EBITDA 24.9 21.2 19.2 15.7 12.8
Gross block 11,461 16,006 22,506 25,506 26,706 P/E 37.5 27.0 28.2 23.6 17.6
P/BV 6.1 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.5
Accumulated depreciation 2,638 3,436 4,367 5,631 7,040
Return ratios (%)
Net Block 8,822 12,570 18,139 19,875 19,666
RoCE 12.4 14.5 12.2 12.1 13.5
CWIP 1,600 540 50 50 50 RoCE (pre-tax) 15.8 15.6 13.7 13.8 15.6
Intangible and others - - - - - RoE 17.5 20.7 17.1 18.0 21.0
Other non-current assets 364 388 310 248 310 Profitability ratios (%)
Investments 0 0 - - - Gross margin 50.6 45.5 46.9 47.6 48.9
Trade receivables 3,196 4,414 5,863 7,398 8,755 EBITDA margin 22.6 19.3 18.0 18.0 18.0
PAT margin 13.9 13.7 10.4 9.9 10.8
Inventories 5,191 5,783 7,482 9,402 11,624
Liquidity ratios (%)
Cash & Cash equivalents 537 834 673 1,087 217
Current ratio 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6
Other current assets 989 1,441 1,009 1,412 988 Quick ratio 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8
Total current assets 9,913 12,472 15,027 19,299 21,584 Solvency ratio (%)
Trade payables 457 738 712 896 1,093 Debt to Equity ratio 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7
Other current liabilities 454 459 918 1,101 1,101 Net Debt to Equity ratio 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7
Total current liabilities 911 1,197 1,630 1,997 2,195 Turnover ratios
Total Assets 19,789 24,772 31,896 37,474 39,416 Fixed asset turnover ratio (x) 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5
Debtor days 77 67 72 74 74
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Inventory days 105 97 93 94 96
Creditor days 17 19 19 17 18
Net Working capital days 165 144 146 151 152
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

5 CCL Products (India)

 Institutional Equities
Rating track
272

Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs)

27August 2014 Buy 90 140
10 October 2014 Buy 123 140
30 October 2014 Buy 134 183
20 January 2015 Buy 174 245
13 April 2015 Buy 214 245
28 May 2015 Buy 187 272
10 July 2015 Buy 185 272
22 July 2015 Buy 207 272
13 October 2015 UR 241 -
16 October 2015 Buy 224 272
4 February 2016 Buy 180 250
17 February 2016 Buy 167 250
2 March 2016 Buy 172 219
3 May 2016 Buy 194 238
2 August 2016 Buy 259 307
5 October 2016 Buy 246 328
5 January 2017 Buy 262 329
3 February 2017 Buy 311 363
24 May 2017 Buy 310 374
13 July 2017 Buy 280 326
3 November 2017 Accumulate 337 349
5 February 2018 Buy 276 346
22 May 2018 Accumulate 299 330
17 July 2018 Accumulate 272 300
23 October 2018 Buy 242 310
15 February 2019 Buy 278 310
16 June 2020 Buy 228 340
25 June 2020 Buy 244 340
27 July 2020 Buy 243 340
20 October 2020 Buy 252 340
19 November 2020 Buy 253 340
7 January 2021 Buy 261 360
28 January 2021 Buy 243 360
3 March 2021 Buy 245 420
23 May 2021 Buy 312 420
29 June 2021 Buy 362 480
29 July 2021 Buy 437 500
25 August 2021 Buy 386 450
27 September 2021 Buy 388 520
28 September 2021 Buy 385 520
28 October 2021 Buy 366 520
20 January 2022 Buy 443 520
21 February 2022 Buy 457 600
6 March 2022 Buy 406 600
28 May 2022 Buy 349 600
6 August 2022 Buy 444 600
12 September 2022 Buy 500 700
31 October 2022 Buy 493 700
24 November 2022 Buy 502 700
19 January 2023 Buy 518 650
21February 2023 Buy 543 650
14 March 2023 Buy 556 700
17May 2023 Buy 593 700
6 June 2023 Buy 638 750
17 July 2023 Accumulate 680 700
25 July 2023 Accumulate 622 700
24 August 2023 Accumulate 613 700
07 November 2023 Buy 636 750
06 February 2024 Buy 632 800
21 March 2024 Buy 676 820

Coverage was transferred to Abhishek Navalgund with effect from 16th June 2020

6 CCL Products (India)

 -
100
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300
400
600
700

500
800
Apr-20

7
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Rating track graph

Aug-21
Oct-21

Covered
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Not Covered Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
Institutional Equities

CCL Products (India)

 Institutional Equities
DISCLOSURES
This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “NBEPL”) for private circulation.
NBEPL is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no.
INH000001436. NBEPL is also a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited
in cash and derivatives segments.

NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at
times, have different or contrary views on stocks and markets.

NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /
dealing in securities Market. NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject
company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication
of the research report with the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial
ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of
this research report.

NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities
of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any
compensation or other benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report.
Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and NBEPL / analyst has not been engaged
in market making activity of the subject company.

Analyst Certification: I, Abhishek Navalgund, research analyst the author of this report, hereby certify that the views
expressed in this research report accurately reflects my/our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products,
sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly
related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst is principally responsible for the
preparation of this research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity
in making any recommendations.

8 CCL Products (India)

 Institutional Equities
Disclaimer
Stock Ratings Absolute Returns
BUY > 15%
ACCUMULATE -5% to15%
SELL < -5%
This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. NBEPL is
not soliciting any action based upon it. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in
or refrain from engaging in any such transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and
particular needs of the reader.
This research has been prepared for the general use of the clients of NBEPL and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed or
redistributed to any other person in any form. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research in any way.
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Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the
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Team Details:

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Rahul Arora CEO rahul.arora@nirmalbang.com -

Krishnan Sambamoorthy Head of Research krishnan.s@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8210

Dealing
Ravi Jagtiani Dealing Desk ravi.jagtiani@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8230, +91 22 6636 8833

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Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

Correspondence Address
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Nr. Peninsula Corporate Park,
Lower Parel (W), Mumbai-400013.
Board No. : 91 22 6273 8000/1; Fax. : 022 6273 8010

9 CCL Products (India)