ARTICLE

https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-01777-w OPEN

Eco-tourism, climate change, and environmental

policies: empirical evidence from developing
economies
Yunfeng Shang1 ✉, Chunyu Bi2, Xinyu Wei2, Dayang Jiang2 ✉, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary 3,4 &
Ehsan Rasoulinezhad 5 ✉
1234567890():,;

Developing ecotourism services is a suitable solution to help developing countries improve

the status of sustainable development indicators and protect their environment. The primary
purpose of this paper is to find out the effects of green governance variables and carbon
dioxide emissions on ecotourism for 40 developing economies from 2010 to 2021. The
results confirmed a uni-directional causal relationship between the green governance indi-
cator and the inflation rate of the ecotourism indicator. In addition, with a 1% improvement in
the green governance index of developing countries, the ecotourism of these countries will
increase by 0.43%. In comparison, with a 1% increase in the globalization index of these
countries, ecotourism will increase by 0.32%. Moreover, ecotourism in developing countries
is more sensitive to macroeconomic variables changes than in developed economies. Geo-
political risk is an influential factor in the developing process of ecotourism. The practical
policies recommended by this research are developing the green financing market, estab-
lishing virtual tourism, granting green loans to small and medium enterprises, and govern-
ment incentives to motivate active businesses.

1 School of Hospitality Administration, Zhejiang Yuexiu University, Zhejiang, China. 2 School of Economics, Tianjin University of Commerce, Tianjin, China. 3 School of

Global Studies, Tokai University, Tokyo, Japan. 4 TOKAI Research Institute for Environment and Sustainability (TRIES), Tokai University, Tokyo, Japan. 5 Faculty of
World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. ✉email: 20141075@zyufl.edu.cn; jiangdayang12@163.com; e.rasoulinezhad@ut.ac.ir

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T
Introduction
he challenge of climate change has become a primary is a green economy, an environmentally friendly economy, a zero
threat to living on the Earth in the last centuries (Rasou- carbon economy, or a sustainable economy. Lee et al. (2022)
linzhad and Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2022). Many meetings of define the green economy as a broad concept comprising green
the countries at the regional and international level are held on industry, agriculture, and services. Centobelli et al. (2022) express
the topics of environment and climate change. Regardless of that environmental sustainability should be more attention in the
environmental issues, population growth, and the lack of control service sector owing to its penetration into social life and
of greenhouse gas emissions, industrialization has been the most interactions.
crucial cause of the climate change crisis. Chao and Feng (2018) Tourism and travel-related services are among countries’ main
address human activity as the leading cause of climate change and parts of the service sector. By creating the flow of tourists, tourism
express that this challenge is a potential threat to living on Earth. services can lead to capital transfer, job creation, cultural
Woodward (2019) argued that climate change threats include the exchange (globalization), and increasing welfare in the country
rise in global temperature, the melting of polar ice caps, and hosting the tours. According to the Yearbook of Tourism Sta-
unprecedented disease outbreaks. Therefore, urgent policies and tistics published by the World Tourism Organization, interna-
solutions are essential to control and lower the risk of global tional tourism has increased from 522.2 billion US dollars in 1995
change. One of the signs of climate change is the increase in the to nearly 1.86 trillion US dollars in 2019. This increase shows the
average temperature of the Earth’s surface. Figure 1 shows the importance of tourism services in generating income for coun-
temperature data from 1910 to 2021 for the four continents of tries, especially in the era of Corona and post-corona. Casado-
Asia, Europe, Africa, and North America. Aranda et al. (2021) express that tourism services can be a central
The data in Fig. 1 shows that the air temperature has increased driver of economic growth recovery in post COVID era. Jeya-
significantly over the past century, which has been more promi- cheya and Hampton (2022) argue that tourism can make high
nent in Asia and Europe. In 2021, we saw a decrease in tem- incomes for host countries leading to job creation and economic
perature changes due to the spread of the Corona disease and a flourishing in destination cities for tourists.
decrease in the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. However, the An important issue mentioned in the corona era and relies on
role of the Asian continent in increasing the global temperature the post-corona era is the revitalizing of green economic growth.
has been more than other continents due to its large population An important issue mentioned in the corona era and relying on
and excessive consumption of fossil fuels. the post-corona era is the revitalizing green economic growth (Bai
During the past decades, the world’s countries have tried to et al., 2022; Werikhe, 2022), an opportunity that countries should
formulate and implement various environmental policies collec- pay more attention to in order to rebuild their economic activ-
tively in the form of agreements or separately to fight environ- ities. In other words, countries should plan their return to eco-
mental threats. Regarding international agreements, such things nomic prosperity with environmental issues in mind. To this end,
as the Paris Agreement of 2015, the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, the the issue of tourism finds a branch called Ecotourism or sus-
Montreal Protocol of 1987, and the Vienna Convention on tainable tourism which has environmental concerns and tries to
the Protection of the Ozone Layer in 1985 can be addressed help countries to improve environmental protection policies.
whose primary purpose is to integrate the goals and motivation of Ecotourism is an approach based on environmental criteria,
the international community to the world’s environmental which is opposed to over-tourism (a type of tourism that disrupts
threats. However, a group of earlier studies, such as Zheng et al. the protection of the environment and destroys natural resour-
(2017), Takashima (2018), and Roelfsema et al. (2022), empha- ces). The International Ecotourism Society defines Ecotourism as
sized the inefficiency of these global agreements, especially after an efficient way to conserve the environment and improve local
the left the USA from the Paris Agreement on 1 June 2017. The people’s well-being. It can be said that Ecotourism, along with
most important cause of this inefficiency has been the need for various economic advantages (income generation, job creation,
more motivation of countries to fulfill their international obli- globalization, poverty alleviation), will bring environmental pro-
gations towards environmental issues. However, many govern- tection to the world’s countries, achieving the goals of green
ments consider the threat of climate change only within their economic growth recovery and sustainable development. Xu et al.
geographical boundaries and have tried to formulate and imple- (2022) consider Ecotourism as one of the essential components of
ment green policies to advance their environmental protection achieving sustainable development in the post-corona era.
goals. These policies include green financial policies (green taxes, Ecotourism in developing countries has more priorities com-
green subsidies), monetary policies (such as green loans and pared to developed economies. Firstly, developing countries are
green financing), and cultural and social policies in line with often countries with financial problems of the government, and
sustainable development. The ultimate goal of these green policies the governments in these countries need more capital to advance
°C

1910 1950 1990 2000 2010 2018 2019 2020 2021

Asia Europe North America Africa

Fig. 1 Surface temperature, °C, 1910–2021. Source: Authors from NOAA (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/
time-series).

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sustainable development goals. Therefore, developing ecotourism and structured way. The importance of tourism in economic
services can be a suitable solution to help these countries improve growth and development has been discussed in previous studies.
the status of sustainable development indicators and protect their However, the study of the effect of tourism on climate change has
environment. Second, due to the spread of the Corona disease, received little attention. Especially the relationship between sus-
developing countries have experienced numerous bankruptcy in tainable tourism, climate change, and environmental policies is a
the tourism services sector. Therefore, promoting ecotourism in problem that has yet to receive the attention of academic experts.
these countries is of great importance in the post-corona era. A group of previous studies has focused on the place of tourism
Third, developing countries have a high share in the emission of in economic development and growth. Holzner (2011) focused on
greenhouse gases in the world due to their high dependence on the consequences of tourism development on the economic
fossil fuels and the lack of advanced green technologies. Fourth, performance of 134 countries from 1970 to 2007. They found out
due to bureaucratic processes, high cost, and lack of market that excessive dependence on tourism income leads to Dutch
transparency, greenwashing may happen in developing econo- disease in the economy, and other economic sectors need to
mies’ ecotourism industry, meaning that a company serving develop to the extent of the tourism sector. In another study,
ecotourism services makes its activities seem more sustainable Sokhanvar et al. (2018) investigated the causal link between
and ethical than they are. The term “greenwashing” can harshly tourism and economic growth in emerging economies from 1995
impact the future development path of the ecotourism industry in to 2014. The main results confirmed that the linkage is country-
developing economies. According to the reasons mentioned dependent. Brida et al. (2020) studied 80 economies from 1995 to
above, developing ecotourism in developing countries can be an 2016 to determine how tourism and economic development are
essential factor in controlling and reducing greenhouse gas related. The paper’s conclusions highlighted tourism’s-positive
emissions in these countries. role in economic activities.
This paper tries to contribute to the existing literature from the Another group of previous studies has linked tourism to sus-
following aspects: tainability targets. Sorensen and Grindsted (2021) expressed that
nature tourism development has a positive and direct impact on
1. Calculating the ecotourism index for selected countries achieving sustainable development goals of countries. In a new
based on the criteria for measuring sustainable tourism study, Li et al. (2022) studied the impacts of tourism development
stated by the World Tourism Organization in the United on life quality (as one of the sustainable development goals
Nations. Considering that there is no specific index for defined by the UN in 2015) in the case of Japan. They found that
ecotourism, the calculation of ecotourism in this article will tourism development positively impacts the quality of life of age
be innovative. groups in the country. Ahmad et al. (2022) explored the role of
2. Measuring the green governance index as a proxy for tourism in the sustainability of G7 economies from 2000–2019.
environmental policies for selected countries based on the The primary findings revealed the positive impact of tourism
Environment Social and Governance (ESG) data. arrivals on sustainable economic development. Zekan et al. (2022)
3. Selecting a sample of 40 developing countries from different investigated the impact of tourism on regional sustainability in
geographical regions to calculate the interconnections Europe. They concluded that tourism development increases
between ecotourism, green governance, and climate change transport, leading to increased carbon dioxide emissions. There-
4. Making a further discussion to address the role of fore, tourism development causes environmental pollution.
uncertainty and the developing level of countries in the Tourism that can pay attention to environmental issues is
relationship between ecotourism and explanatory variables. called “ecotourism.” Many new studies have studied different
The main results confirm the existence of a uni-directional dimensions of ecotourism. Lu et al. (2021) expanded the concept
causal relationship running from the green governance indicator of the ecotourism industry. The significant results expressed that
and inflation rate to the ecotourism indicator. In addition, with a smart tourist cities are essential for efficient ecotourism in
1% improvement in the green governance index of developing countries. Thompson (2022) expressed the characteristics of
countries, the ecotourism of these countries will increase by ecotourism development through survey methodology. The
0.43%. A 1% increase in the globalization index of these countries results confirmed the importance of transparent regulations,
accelerates ecotourism by 0.32%. government support, and social intention to promote ecotourism.
Moreover, ecotourism in developing countries is more sensitive In another study, Heshmati et al. (2022) employed the SWOT
to macroeconomic variables changes than in developed econo- analysis method to explore the critical success factors of eco-
mies. Geopolitical risk is an influential factor in the developing tourism development in Iran. They found that legal doc-
process of ecotourism. The practical policies recommended by umentation and private participation are major influential factors
this research are developing the green financing market, estab- in promoting ecotourism in Iran. In line with the previous
lishing virtual tourism, granting green loans to small and medium research, Hosseini et al. (2021) tried to explore the influential
enterprises, and government incentives to motivate active factors in promoting ecotourism in Iran by employing a SWOT
businesses. analysis. They depicted that attracting investors is essential to
The paper in continue is organized as follows: section “Lit- enhance ecotourism projects in Iran. Hasana et al. (2022)
erature review” provides a short literature review to determine the reviewed research to analyze the earlier studies about ecotourism.
gaps this research seeks to fill. Section “Data and model specifi- The conclusions expressed that ecotourism is necessary for
cation” argues data and model specification. The following sec- environmental protection. However, it is a challenging plan for
tion represents empirical results. Section “Discussion” expresses the government, and they should carry out various policies
discussion, whereas the last section provides conclusions, policy toward ecotourism development. Kunjuraman et al. (2022) stu-
implications, research limitations, and recommendations to died the role of ecotourism on rural community development in
research further. Malaysia. The significant results confirmed that ecotourism could
transfer-positive impacts.
Several earlier studies have concentrated on the characteristics
Literature review of ecotourism in different developed and developing economies.
This part of the article analyzes and classifies the previous lit- For example, Ruhanen (2019) investigated the ecotourism status
erature on ecotourism and sustainable development in a rational in Australia. The paper concluded that the country could

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potentially make a larger share of ecotourism to the entire local Organization proposed some measurements of sustainable
tourism industry. Jin et al. (2022) studied the role of local com- tourism, and also following Yusef et al. (2014), the entropy
munity power on green tourism in Japan. They concluded that weight method is employed to calculate a multi-dimensional
the concept of agricultural village activity and regional support ecotourism indicator comprising per capita green park area
positively influences the development of green tourism in Japan (square meters), gross domestic tourism revenue (US dollars), the
as a developed economy. Choi et al. (2022) sought to find aspects ratio of good air quality (%), green transport, renewable water
of ecotourism development in South Korea. The preliminary resources (km3) and deforestation rate (%). It is a novel
results confirmed the importance of green governance and effi- ecotourism indicator that can show the ecotourism status in
cient regulation to promote a sustainable tourism industry. countries.
Baloch et al. (2022) explored the ecotourism specifications in the In addition, the green governance index is calculated as a proxy
developing economy of Pakistan. They found that Pakistan’s for environmental policy. Principally, the Environment, Social,
ecotourism needs government support and the social well-being and Governance (ESG) data from World Bank are gathered to
of the visited cities. Sun et al. (2022) studied ecotourism in China. calculate this variable. With the improvement of the Green
They concluded that there is imbalanced development of eco- Governance Index, the quality of environmental policies will also
tourism among Chinese provinces due to the need for more increase, and vice versa. With the adverseness of the Green
capital to invest in all ecotourism projects throughout the Chinese Governance Index, the efficiency of environmental policies will
cities. Tajer and Demir (2022) analyzed the ecotourism strategy in decrease.
Iran. They concluded that despite various potentials in the Regarding control variables, the inflation rate as an influential
country, insufficient capital, lack of social awareness, and political factor in tourism flows is selected. The importance of this variable
tension are the major obstacles to promoting a sustainable to promoting/declining tourism flows has been drawn to
tourism industry in Iran. attention by some earlier studies, such as Liu et al. (2022). The
Another group of earlier studies has drawn attention to pro- inflation rate can raise the total cost of travel, causing a reduction
moting eco-tourism in the post COVID era. They believe that the in tourism flows, while any reduction in the inflation rate can
corona disease has created an excellent opportunity to pay more increase the intention of tourists to travel. In addition, the KOF
attention to environmental issues and that countries should move globalization index provided by the KOF Swiss Economic
towards sustainable development concepts such as sustainable Institute is another control variable. A country with a higher
(eco) tourism in the post-corona era. Soliku et al. (2021) studied degree of globalization means more readiness to accept tourists
eco-tourism in Ghana during the pandemic. The findings from countries with different cultures and religions.
depicted the vague impacts of a pandemic on eco-tourism.
Despite the short-term negative consequence of the pandemic on Model specification. According to the variables mentioned
eco-tourism, it provides various opportunities for developing this above, 40 examined developing countries from 2010 to 2021, the
sector in Ghana. Hosseini et al. (2021) employed the Fuzzy panel co-integration model can be written as Eq. 1:
Dematel technique to find solutions for promoting eco-tourism
during COVID-19. They found out that planning to increase the ETORi;t ¼ α0 þ β1 CO2i;t þ β2 GGIi;t þ β3 INFi;t þ β4 GLOBi;t þ ei;t
capacity of eco-tourism and incentive policies by governments ð1Þ
can help promote the eco-tourism aspect under the pandemic’s
consequences. Abedin et al. (2022) studied the consequence of ETOR indicates the ecotourism index, while CO2, GGI, INF, and
COVID-19 on coastal eco-tourism development. The primary GLOB denote Carbon dioxide emissions per capita, green gov-
findings confirmed the negative impacts of a pandemic on the ernance index, inflation rate, and globalization index, respectively.
development of eco-tourism. i is 1,2,…,40 and shows examined developing economies, while t
A review of previous studies shows that tourism can positively is time and contains 2010, 2011,..,2021.
impact green growth and sustainable development. Sustainable Prior to the estimation of coefficients of Eq. 1, the panel unit
tourism can be used as a policy to deal with the threat of climate root tests are employed to find out whether the series is
change. This issue needs more attention in the corona and post- stationary. To this end, three tests of LLC (Levin et al., 2002),
corona eras. Because in the post-corona era, many countries have Breitung’s test (2000), and the PP-Fisher test (Philips and Perron,
sought to revive green economic growth, and ecotourism can be 1988). If all the variables are stationary at the first level of
one of the tools to achieve it. As observed, a detailed study of the difference (I(1)), a panel co-integration test can be conducted to
relationship between climate change, ecotourism, and environ- explore whether the model is spurious. To this end, Kao’s co-
mental policies has yet to be done. Therefore, this research will integration test (1999) and Pedroni’s residual co-integration test
address and fill this literature gap. (2004) are conducted. If the co-integration relationship exists
among variables, the panel causality test can be run to determine
the causal linkages among variables. In this paper, the two steps of
Data and model specification Engle and Granger (1987)‘s test, which is based on the error
Data description. The paper seeks to find the relationship correction model (ECM) is used as Eqs. 2–6:
between climate change, ecotourism, and environmental policy ΔETORi;t ¼ θ1;i þ ∑m m
k¼1 θ 1:1:i;k ΔETORi;tk þ ∑k¼1 θ1:2:i;k
for the panel of 40 developing economies from different regions m m
from 2010 to 2021 (480 observations). The sample size could have ΔCO2i;tk þ ∑k¼1 θ1:3:i;k ΔGGIi;tk þ ∑k¼1 θ1:4;i;k ΔINFi;tk
been more extensive due to the lack of information on some þ ∑m
k¼1 θ 1:5:i;k ΔGLOBi;tk þ λ1;i ECTi;t1 þ μ1;i;t
variables. However, there are 480 observations in the data analysis
ð2Þ
of the data panel; therefore, the number of samples selected is
acceptable.
To determine the proxies for main variables, CO2 emissions ΔCO2i;t ¼ θ2;i þ ∑m m
k¼1 θ 2:1:i;k ΔETORi;tk þ ∑k¼1 θ2:2:i;k
per capita are selected as the proxy for climate change. Many ΔCO2i;tk þ ∑m m
k¼1 θ2:3:i;k ΔGGIi;tk þ ∑k¼1 θ 2:4;i;k ΔINFi;tk
earlier studies (e.g., Espoir et al., 2022) have employed this þ ∑m
k¼1 θ 2:5:i;k ΔGLOBi;tk þ λ2;i ECTi;t1 þ μ2;i;t
variable as an appropriate variable representing the status of
climate change. Regarding ecotourism, the World Tourism ð3Þ

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ΔGGIi;t ¼ θ3;i þ ∑m m feedback effect. In addition, there is only short-term causality

k¼1 θ3:1:i;k ΔETORi;tk þ ∑k¼1 θ3:2:i;k
from the green governance indicator to carbon dioxide emissions.
ΔCO2i;tk þ ∑m m
k¼1 θ 3:3:i;k ΔGGIi;tk þ ∑k¼1 θ3:4;i;k ΔINFi;tk In contrast, ecotourism and the globalization index have a uni-
þ ∑m
k¼1 θ3:5:i;k ΔGLOBi;tk þ λ3;i ECTi;t1 þ μ3;i;t directional causal linkage. In the short term, improving eco-
ð4Þ tourism can cause globalization and reduce carbon emissions in
developing economies. Regarding the long-term causality, it can
ΔINFi;t ¼ θ4;i þ ∑m m
k¼1 θ4;1:i;k ΔETORi;tk þ ∑k¼1 θ 4:2:i;k be concluded that the ECT of ecotourism, green governance
ΔCO2i;tk þ ∑m m
k¼1 θ 4:3:i;k ΔGGIi;tk þ ∑k¼1 θ4:4;i;k ΔINFi;tk index, and globalization index are statistically significant. These
m
þ ∑k¼1 θ4:5:i;k ΔGLOBi;tk þ λ4;i ECTi;t1 þ μ4;i;t three variables are major adjustment variables when the system
departs from equilibrium.
ð5Þ In the last stage, the long-run estimations are done through
ΔGLOBi;t ¼ θ4;i þ ∑m
θ4:1:i;k ΔETORi;tk þ
k¼1 θ4:2:i;k ∑m
k¼1 FMOLS and DOLS estimators. Table 5 lists the results of the
ΔCO2i;tk þ ∑m θ ΔGGI þ ∑m
θ ΔINF estimations by these two-panel co-integration estimators:
k¼1 4:3:i;k i;tk k¼1 4:4;i;k i;tk
Based on FMOLS estimation, it can be concluded that the
þ ∑m
k¼1 θ4:5:i;k ΔGLOBi;tk þ λ4;i ECTi;t1 þ μ4;i;t Green Governance index has a positive and significant coefficient
ð6Þ in such a way that with a 1% improvement in the green govern-
ance index of developing countries, the ecotourism of these
In the above Equations, Δ is the first differences of variables, countries will increase by 0.43%. By improving the state of green
while θ and ECT represent the fixed country effect and error governance, the quality of formulated and implemented green
correction term. policies in these countries will increase, improving the conditions
The next step is the long-run panel co-integration estimations. of ecotourism development. This finding aligns with Agrawal et al.
To this end, Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Dynamic OLS (2022) and Debbarma and Choi (2022), who believe that green
(DOLS) as robustness checks are conducted, which are two governance is essential to sustainable development. In the case of
famous panel co-integration estimators (Rasoulinezhad, 2018). carbon dioxide emissions, the coefficient of this variable is not
The FMOLS estimator has various advantages. It allows serial statistically significant. In other words, the variable of carbon
correlation, endogeneity, and cross-sectional heterogeneity (Erdal dioxide emissions per capita has no significant effect on eco-
and Erdal, 2020). tourism in developing countries. The inflation rate has a sig-
nificant negative effect on ecotourism. With a 1% increase in the
Empirical results general prices of goods and services in developing countries,
In this section, we will implement the experimental research ecotourism will decrease by 0.34%. This finding aligns with Rah-
model. The purpose of implementing an econometric model man (2022), who showed a negative relationship between inflation
based on panel data is to find the effects of green governance and sustainable development in their research. An increase in
variables and carbon dioxide emissions on ecotourism. As the inflation means an increase in the total cost of a tourist’s trip to
first step, the panel unit root tests are conducted. The results are the destination country, inhibiting the growth of tourist services.
reported in Table 1 as follows: Regarding the globalization variable, this variable has a sig-
According to Table 1, all three-panel unit root tests depict that nificant positive effect on the ecotourism of developing countries.
all series are non-stationary at the level and become stationary With a 1% increase in the globalization index of these countries,
after a first difference. Next, the panel co-integration tests are ecotourism will increase by 0.32%. Globalization means more
conducted, and their results are represented in Tables 2 and 3: interaction with the world’s countries, acceptance of different
The two-panel co-integration tests’ findings confirm the pre- cultures and customs, more language learning in society, more
sence of co-integration linkages among variables. acceptance of tourism, and development of tourist services in the
The panel causality test studies the short-term and long-term country. This finding is consistent with the results of Akadiri et al.
causal relationship among variables. Table 4 reports the results of (2019), who confirmed that globalization is one of the crucial
the panel causality check as follows: components in tourism development.
According to Table 4, there is a uni-directional causal rela- The DOLS estimator was also used to ensure the obtained
tionship between the green governance indicator and the inflation findings’ validity. The results of this method are shown in Table 5.
rate of the ecotourism indicator. At the same time, there is a bi- The signs of the coefficients are consistent with the results
directional causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions obtained by the FMOLS method. Therefore, the validity and
and ecotourism indicators, confirming the existence of the reliability of the obtained coefficients are confirmed.

Table 1 Panel unit root test findings.

Test ETOR CO2 GGI INF GLOB

LLC:
Level −4.53 (0.130) −2.49 (0.72) −0.50 (0.35) −4.33 (0.57) −3.30 (0.94)
D() −14.39 (0.00) −13.93 (0.00) −18.44 (0.00) −23.59 (0.00) −8.49 (0.00)
Breitung:
Level 0.184 (0.47) 3.14 (0.10) 0.10 (0.55) 0.12 (0.73) 0.175 (0.26)
D() −6.49 (0.00) −9.13 (0.00) −10.11 (0.00) −7.04 (0.00) −7.15 (0.00)
PP-Fisher:
Level 13.43 (0.54) 37.50 (0.34) 43.05 (0.03) 31.95 (0.20) 22.60 (0.41)
D() 323.31 (0.00) 210.49 (0.00) 565.10 (0.00) 498.05 (0.00) 344.94 (0.00)

ETOR, CO2, GGI, INF, and GLOB are eco-tourism indicator, carbon dioxide emissions per capita, green governance indicator, inflation rate and globalization index, respectively.
Source: Authors.

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Discussion developing countries decreases by approximately 0.69%. The

In this section, we will briefly discuss the relationship between signs of coefficients of other variables align with the earlier
ecotourism and climate change and the environmental policy findings, represented in Table 5. In addition, the magnitude of the
considering the uncertainty and the relationship between vari- impact of geopolitical risk is larger than the impacts of other
ables in developed and developing countries. variables highlighting the importance of lower geopolitical risk in
these economies to reach sustainable tourism targets.
Consideration of uncertainty. Uncertainty as a primary reason
Difference in developed and developing economies. Consider-
for risk has become a research issue in recent decades. Uncer-
ing the different structures and financial power of these two
tainty can make the future unpredictable and uncontrollable,
groups of countries, the relationship between the variables
affecting economic decision-making. Regarding tourism, the
mentioned in these two groups is expected to be different. In the
impacts of uncertainty have been drawn to attention by several
previous section, the results for the group of developing countries
earlier studies (e.g., Dutta et al., 2020; Das et al., 2020; and Balli
showed that the Green Governance index has a positive and
et al., 2019; Balli et al., 2018). In general, uncertainty in the
significant coefficient. In the case of carbon dioxide emissions, the
tourism industry reflects tourists’ concerns and consumption
coefficient of this variable is not statistically significant. The
habits in the way that by increasing uncertainty, it is expected that
inflation rate has a significant negative effect on ecotourism.
tourists make sense of risks and postpone their tourism activities,
Regarding the globalization variable, it can be mentioned that this
and vice versa; in the sphere of certainties, the various risks are
variable has a significant positive effect on the ecotourism of
clear, and tourists can make rational decisions for their tourism
developing countries. In order to analyze the relationship between
plans and activities. In order to explore the impacts of uncer-
variables in the developed countries, the top 10 countries with the
tainties on eco-tourism of the examined developing economies,
highest HDI in 2021 are selected (Switzerland (0.962), Norway
the geopolitical risk index (GPR) as a proxy for economic policy
(0.961), Iceland (0.959), Hong Kong (0.952), Australia (0.951),
uncertainty index is gathered and added as a control variable to
Eq. 1. The estimations results by FMOLS are reported in Table 6
as follows. Table 5 FMOLS and DOLS estimations.
According to Table 6, the uncertainty (geopolitical risk) has a
negative coefficient meaning that with a 1% increase in Explanatory FMOLS DOLS (Robustness
geopolitical risk, the eco-tourism industry in the examined variable check)
GGI 0.432 (0.003) 0.102 (0.023)
Table 2 Panel co-integration test (Pedroni technique). CO2 −0.231 (0.394) −0.001 (0.511)
INF −0.344(0.000) −0.229 (0.003)
GLOB 0.328 (0.023) 0.492 (0.007)
t-stat p-value
Panel v-stat 0.249 0.019 CO2, GGI, INF, and GLOB are carbon dioxide emissions per capita, green governance indicator,
inflation rate and globalization index, respectively.
Panel r-stat 0.042 0.009 Source: Authors.
Panel PP-stat −2.74 0.003
Panel ADF-stat −0.60 0.392
Group r-stat −0.492 0.030
Group PP-stat −3.502 0.000 Table 6 FMOLS estimation by considering uncertainty
Group ADF-stat 0.001 0.287
variable.
Source: Authors.
Explanatory variable Coefficient p-value
GGI 0.039 0.009
CO2 −0.110 0.583
Table 3 Panel co-integration test (Kao technique). INF −0.113 0.048
GLOB 0.018 0.001
t-stat p-value GPR −0.692 0.058
ADF −6.13 0.003 CO2, GGI, INF, GPR, and GLOB are carbon dioxide emissions per capita, green governance
indicator, inflation rate, geopolitical risk index and globalization index, respectively.
Source: Authors. Source: Authors.

Table 4 Panel causality test.

Dependent variable Explanatory variables

Short-term Long-term
ΔETOR ΔCO2 ΔGGI ΔINF ΔGLOB ECT
ΔETOR – −0.239 (0.00) 0.501 (0.042) −0.113 (0.031) 0.429 (0.533) 9.832 (0.00)
ΔCO2 −0.39 (0.03) – −0.392 (0.00) 0.192 (0.443) 0.103 (0.23) 0.403 (0.45)
ΔGGI 0.45 (0.594) 0.223 (0.49) – −0.23 (0.001) 0.553 (0.684) 2.845 (0.013)
ΔINF 0.32 (0.119) 0.342 (0.64) −0.21 (0.00) – −0.32 (0.053) 10.449 (0.32)
ΔGLOB 0.13 (0.023) 0.943 (0.32) 0.192 (0.04) −0.13 (0.024) – 6.443 (0.075)

ETOR, CO2, GGI, INF, and GLOB are eco-tourism indicator, carbon dioxide emissions per capita, green governance indicator, inflation rate and globalization index, respectively.
Source: Authors.

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HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES COMMUNICATIONS | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-01777-w ARTICLE

the existence of the feedback hypothesis, expressing that in

Table 7 FMOLS estimation for developed panel of countries. developing economies, any policies related to ecotourism
cause changes in CO2 emissions and vice versa.
Explanatory variable Coefficient p-value 3. There is only short-term causality from the green govern-
GGI 0.238 0.0442 ance indicator to carbon dioxide emissions, whereas there is
CO2 −0.034 0.0039 a uni-directional causal linkage from ecotourism to the
INF −0.039 0.0145 globalization index. In other words, in the short term,
GLOB 0.0139 0.0674 improving ecotourism can cause globalization and reduce
CO2, GGI, INF, and GLOB are carbon dioxide emissions per capita, green governance indicator,
carbon emissions in developing economies.
inflation rate and globalization index, respectively. 4. By improving green governance in developing economies,
Source: Authors.
the quality of formulated and implemented green policies in
these countries will increase, improving the conditions of
Denmark (0.948), Sweden (0.947) and Ireland (0.945)). The ecotourism development.
selected variables, explained in section “Data and model specifi- 5. An increase in the inflation rate raises the total cost of a
cation”, are collected from 2010 to 2021. The panel unit root tests tourist’s trip to developing economies, inhibiting the
confirmed that all series are non-stationary at the level and growth of eco-tourist services.
become stationary after a first difference. In addition, the pre- 6. Globalization means more interaction with the world’s
sence of co-integration linkages among variables is revealed by countries, acceptance of different cultures and customs,
the panel co-integration test. The panel co-integration estimator more language learning in society, more acceptance of
of FMOLS is employed to study the long-term relationship tourism, and development of tourist services in developing
among variables. The findings are reported in Table 7 as follows: countries.
According to the estimated coefficients, the green governance
indicator positively and statistically significantly impacts ecotour-
ism in the examined developed economies. However, the
magnitude of the impact of this variable is more considerable Policy implications. In order to achieve the promotion of eco-
for developing countries because these countries have more tourism in developing countries, the implementation of inte-
imbalances in markets and regulations. Therefore, the presence of grated and effective strategic and practical policies is of great
good green tourism can have a more positive effect on advancing importance. According to the concluding remarks mentioned,
the goal of ecotourism. Contrary to the findings of developing practical policies are presented as follows for enhancing eco-
countries, carbon dioxide emission in developed countries has a tourism in developed countries. The development of ecotourism
negative and significant effect, meaning that with an increase of requires the improvement of various infrastructures and
1% in carbon dioxide in developed countries, the level of mechanisms, which depends on the implementation of projects
ecotourism becomes more unfavorable by 0.034%. Moreover, related to ecotourism in developing countries. Because most
inflation and globalization variables have significant negative and countries do not have enough financial power to invest in such
positive coefficients, respectively. However, the magnitudes of projects, developing the green financing market can be one of the
these two variables’ coefficients are also higher in developing critical practical solutions. The green financing tool can increase
countries. Ecotourism in developing countries is more sensitive to the investment risk and return on investment in such projects,
changes in macroeconomic variables such as green governance, and as a result, the participation of the private sector in these
globalization, and inflation. projects will increase. With information and communication
Another difference between eco-tourism in developed and technology development, virtual tourism can solve many envir-
developing economies may be interpreted through the term onmental issues related to human physical presence. Virtual
“greenwashing,” introduced by Westerveld in 1986 (Maichum et tourism is one of the branches of tourism services that provide
al., 2016). In developing countries, due to the economic structure, people with destinations, places of interest, and tourist attractions
limited knowledge, bureaucratic process, lack of legal eco- with full quality but in virtual form. Another practical policy is
certification, and imperfect competition, a company involved in granting green loans to small and medium enterprises active in
the eco-tourism industry makes an unsubstantiated claim to ecotourism. Despite the organizational agility, these companies
deceive consumers into accepting the company’s services are in do not have the significant financial power to develop different
line with environmental protection policies. Hence, green sectors of ecotourism; therefore, the cooperation of the banking
governance in developing countries should have another role in industry of developing countries by providing green loans (with
regulating the eco-tourism market to lower the threat of low-interest rates) can motivate small and medium-sized com-
greenwashing in eco-tourism services. panies in the field of activities related to ecotourism. Government
incentives to motivate businesses active in ecotourism and gov-
Conclusions and policy recommendations ernment deterrent policies (green tax) from businesses active in
Concluding remarks. The findings of econometric modeling the field of tourism to lead them to increase the share of eco-
revealed the relationship between environmental policies, climate tourism in their activities can be a proper operational strategy. In
change, and ecotourism. Based on the findings of the econometric developing countries, the role of government and green govern-
model, the following conclusions can be presented: ance is vital in advancing the goals of ecotourism. By improving
the level of its green governance, the government can create
1. A uni-directional causal relationship runs from the green efficient policies, regulations, and social tools to create motivation
governance indicator and inflation rate to the ecotourism and desire to accept ecotourism, an essential and undeniable issue
indicator, which means that any changes in green in developing societies. Creating a guarantee fund for ecotourism
governance and inflation rate cause changes in ecotourism, companies in developing countries is another practical policy to
which is vital for developing economies where governance support these companies financially. Guarantee funds can be
and inflation rate are two crucial issues. established with the participation of the people of ecotourism
2. There is a bi-directional causal relationship between carbon destinations in order to strengthen the financial strength of
dioxide emissions and ecotourism indicators, confirming ecotourism companies in these destinations.

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