2021 08 09 WU en
2021 08 09 WU en
ECONOMIC
UPDATE
SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST 2021
Presented by
Economic Research Division of PEFINDO
01
05
08
14
economic
01 Macroeconomic Update
GLOBAL DOMESTIC
• The U.S. services industry activity jumped in July. The Institute for • Indonesia’s consumer price index rose 1.52% (YoY) in July as
Supply Management survey showed that the non-manufacturing prices of some food and health products rose. The country's
activity index rose to 64.1 from 60.1 in June. The index in July was headline inflation has stayed below the central bank’s target
the highest reading since the series started in 2008. Demand is range of 2% to 4% since mid-2020, as domestic demand
rotating back to services as nearly half of the population has been dropped amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The annual core
fully vaccinated against Covid-19, allowing people to travel, inflation rate eased slightly to 1.40% (YoY) from 1.49% in June
frequent restaurants, visit casinos, and attend sporting events while government-controlled and volatile prices were up
among services-related activities that were curbed early in the 0.61% (YoY) and 2.97% (YoY), respectively.
pandemic. • Indonesia’s GDP expanded 7.07% (YoY) in the second quarter
of 2021. Surging exports, including 56% growth in commodity
shipments; a rebound in consumption and investment; and
bigger government spending boosted the country’s economy
activity in the April – June this year. However, analysts are
downgrading their outlook for the economy due to the virus'
resurgence and mobility restrictions imposed since July.
YIELD
• 10-year government bond yields up to 6.30% on Friday (8/6) from 6.29% on Friday (7/30) in line with the increase in Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves
in the July 2021 period. Bank Indonesia (BI) reported Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves (cadev) for the July 2021 period amounted to US$137.3 billion,
an increase of around US$200 million compared to the June 2021 period of US$137.1 billion. The slowdown in industrial performance also affected the
Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) which contracted in July 2021. The manufacturing PMI in July 2021 was recorded at 40.10, marking the first contraction
this year and the lowest since June last year. In addition, the increase in U.S. government bond yields also triggered an increase in Indonesian bond yields.
Despite the strengthening of Indonesian bond yields, foreign capital inflows for the period 2-6 August 2021 amounted to IDR9.89 trillion in the government
securities (SBN) market and IDR1.34 trillion in the stock market. This shows that the interest of foreign investors to enter the domestic financial market is
still quite attractive even though the government is continuing the PPKM until August 9, 2021.
• On Friday (8/6) the 10-year U.S. treasury yield up to 1.30% from 1.24% on Friday (7/30) after a strong jobs report and a statement by Fed officials. The
Labor U.S. Department of released data that Nonfarm payrolls increased by 943,000 jobs last month after rising 938,000 in June. This indicates
improvement in employment data, if employment data in August and September show improvement in the Fed's return, it is likely to reduce government
bond purchases. The Fed currently buys at least $120 billion in government bonds each month. This includes $80 billion in U.S. bonds. Treasury and $40
billion in mortgage-backed securities. In addition, a statement by a Fed official saying that the U.S. central bank will consider the current low interest rate
near zero will expire at the end of 2022 which means that the Fed's interest rate is likely to rise in early 2023.
9.00
Page
8.00
7.00
6.00
%(YoY)
5.00
4.00
3.00
30-Jul-21
2.00
1.00 6-Aug-21
0.00
3M 9M 2Y 4Y 6Y 8Y 10Y 12Y 15Y 18Y 25Y
Tenor
Note: average of a specific day with the same day of the previous week.
BOND ISSUANCE
Lembaga Pembiayaan
12 Shelf Registration Bond III Phase II Year 2016 Series C Aug-25-2021 1,582.00 8.35 5 idAAA
Ekspor Indonesia
13 PT Equity Finance Indonesia MTN VI Phase VI Year 2018 Aug-28-2021 32.00 12.25 3 -
14 PT Hasjrat Multifinance MTN III Series A Aug-28-2021 200.00 9.75 2 irBBB
PT Bank Tabungan Negara
15 Shelf Registration Bond IV Phase I Year 2020 Series A Aug-29-2021 577.00 6.75 1 idAA+
(Persero) Tbk
PT Bank Tabungan Negara
16 Shelf Registration Bond II Phase II Year 2016 Series B Aug-30-2021 1,653.00 8.75 5 idAA+
(Persero) Tbk
Total 8,439.05
SEPTEMBER
1 PT Indosat Tbk Shelf Registration Bond I Phase IV Year 2016 Series C Sep-2-2021 734.00 8.60 5 idAAA
2 PT Indosat Tbk Shelf Registration Sukuk Ijarah I Phase IV Year 2016 Series C Sep-2-2021 10.00 9.00 5 idAAA(sy)
10 PT Astra Sedaya Finance Shelf Registration Bond V Phase I Year 2020 Series A Sep-12-2021 1,027.00 6.40 1 idAAA
11 PT Bumi Surya Cemerlang MTN Year 2019 Series V Sep-12-2021 6.25 12.35 2 -
PT AB Sinar Mas
12 Bond I Year 2020 Series A Sep-14-2021 115.00 10.00 1 irA-
Multifinance
13 PT Perkebunan Nusantara V MTN I Year 2016 Sep-14-2021 500.00 12.00 5 -
PT Merdeka Copper Gold
14 Shelf Registration Bond I Phase II Year 2020 Series A Sep-16-2021 149.00 8.25 1 idA
Tbk
PT BFI Finance Indonesia
15 Shelf Registration Bond IV Phase III Year 2020 Series A Sep-18-2021 437.00 8.00 1 A+(idn)
Tbk
16 PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk Shelf Registration Bond I Phase I Year 2020 Series A Sep-18-2021 55.00 8.00 1 irAA
19 PT Polytama Propindo Bond I Year 2020 Series A Sep-19-2021 126.70 10.00 1 idBBB+
20 PT Polytama Propindo Sukuk Ijarah I Year 2020 Series A Sep-19-2021 150.90 10.00 1 idBBB+(sy)
21 PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk Shelf Registration Bond II Phase IV Year 2018 Series B Sep-20-2021 137.00 8.50 3 idAAA
22 PT Jakarta Lingkar Baratsatu Bond I Year 2018 Series A Sep-20-2021 875.00 9.75 3 idA+
PT Wahana Ottomitra
23 Shelf Registration Bond III Phase IV Year 2020 Series A Sep-20-2021 328.00 8.00 1 AA-(idn)
Multiartha Tbk
24 PT Global Mediacom Tbk Shelf Registration Bond II Phase I Year 2020 Series A Sep-21-2021 331.43 10.75 1 idA
25 PT Global Mediacom Tbk Shelf Registration Sukuk Ijarah II Phase I Year 2020 Series A Sep-21-2021 297.97 10.75 1 idA(sy)
PT Sarana Multigriya
33 Shelf Registration Bond III Phase VI Year 2016 Sep-27-2021 1,176.00 8.60 5 idAAA
Finansial (Persero)
PT Bank Pembangunan
34 Daerah Jawa Barat dan Shelf Registration Bond I Phase II Year 2018 Series A Sep-28-2021 835.50 9.00 3 idAA-
Banten Tbk
PT Waskita Karya (Persero)
35 Shelf Registration Bond III Phase III Year 2018 Series A Sep-28-2021 761.00 9.00 3 idBBB
Tbk
OCTOBER
1 PT Pegadaian (Persero) Shelf Registration Bond IV Phase III Year 2020 Series A Oct-2-2021 1,295.00 5.50 1 idAAA
2 PT Pegadaian (Persero) Shelf Registration Sukuk Mudharabah I Phase III Year 2020 Series A Oct-2-2021 704.00 5.50 1 idAAA(sy)
3 PT Pos Indonesia (Persero) MTN POSINDO-01 Year 2019 Oct-2-2021 335.00 11.00 2 idBBB+
PT Asietex Sinar
4 MTN II Year 2017 Series D Oct-7-2021 35.00 11.00 4 -
Indopratama
5 PT Mandiri Tunas Finance Shelf Registration Bond III Phase I Year 2016 Serieses B Oct-7-2021 100.00 8.55 5 idAA+
8 PT Aneka Gas Industri Tbk Shelf Registration Bond II Phase II Year 2020 Oct-12-2021 100.00 9.25 1 A-(idn)
9 PT Aneka Gas Industri Tbk Shelf Registration Sukuk Ijarah II Phase II Year 2020 Oct-12-2021 205.00 9.25 1 A-(idn)
10 PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk Commercial Paper I Year 2020 Oct-13-2021 566.00 6.80 1 idA1+
11 PT XL Axiata Tbk Shelf Registration Bond I Phase I Year 2018 Series B Oct-16-2021 450.00 9.10 3 AAA(idn)
12 PT XL Axiata Tbk Shelf Registration Sukuk Ijarah II Phase I Year 2018 Series B Oct-16-2021 399.00 9.10 3 AAA(idn)
PT Federal International
13 Shelf Registration Bond IV Phase II Year 2020 Series A Oct-17-2021 854.56 6.25 1 idAAA
Finance
PT Sarana Multigriya
14 Shelf Registration Bond IV Phase VI Year 2018 Series B Oct-19-2021 338.00 8.70 3 idAAA
Finansial (Persero)
PT Indonesia Infrastructure
19 Shelf Registration Bond I Phase II Year 2020 Series A Oct-28-2021 570.00 5.00 1 idAAA
Finance
20 PT Bussan Auto Finance Shelf Registration Sukuk Mudharabah I Phase II Year 2020 Series A Oct-29-2021 373.00 5.75 1 AAA(idn)(sy)
Total 10,351.56
Notes: *) Amount in USD excluded.
Description :
Bnk : Banking Mng : Mining PL&A : Plantation & Agriculture Mnc : Municipal Ppt : Property
CPO : Crude Palm Oil Auto : Automotive O&G : Oil & Gas Cons :Construction Nkl : Nickel
Trn : Transportation F&B : Food & Baverage Inc : Insurance Tlc : Telecommunication Trd : Trading
Elec :Electricity H&T : Hotel & Tourism M&G : Metal & Gold Tlrd : Toll Road Utl : Utilities
Coal : Coal Fnc : Financing Msmd : Mass Media PO&A : Port Authority & Airport
To subscribe, contact:
PEFINDO Marketing Team:
(+ 62) 21 50968469
Disclaimer:
The rating contained in this report or publication is the opinion of PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (PEFINDO) given based on the rating result on the date the rating was
made. The rating is a forward-looking opinion regarding the rated party’s capability to meet its financial obligations fully and on time, based on assumptions made at the
time of rating. The rating is not a recommendation for investors to make investment decisions (whether the decision is to buy, sell, or hold any debt securities based on
or related to the rating or other investment decisions) and/or an opinion on the fairness value of debt securities and/or the value of the entity assigned a rating by PEFINDO.
All the data and information needed in the rating process are obtained from the party requesting the rating, which are considered reliable in conveying the accuracy and
correctness of the data and information, as well as from other sources deemed reliable. PEFINDO does not conduct audits, due diligence, or independent verifications of
every information and data received and used as basis in the rating process. PEFINDO does not take any responsibility for the truth, completeness, timeliness, and accuracy
of the information and data referred to. The accuracy and correctness of the information and data are fully the responsibility of the parties providing them.
PEFINDO and every of its member of the Board of Directors, Commissioners, Shareholders and Employees are not responsible to any party for losses, costs and expenses
suffered or that arise as a result of the use of the contents and/or information in this rating report or publication, either directly or indirectly.
PEFINDO generally receives fees for its rating services from parties who request the ratings, and PEFINDO discloses its rating fees prior to the rating assignment. PEFINDO
has a commitment in the form of policies and procedures to maintain objectivity, integrity, and independence in the rating process.
PEFINDO also has a “Code of Conduct” to avoid conflicts of interest in the rating process.
Ratings may change in the future due to events that were not anticipated at the time they were first assigned. PEFINDO has the right to withdraw ratings if the data and
information received are determined to be inadequate and/or the rated company does not fulfill its obligations to PEFINDO. For ratings that received approval for
publication from the rated party, PEFINDO has the right to publish the ratings and analysis in its reports or publication, and publish the results of the review of the published
ratings, both periodically and specifically in case there are material facts or important events that could affect the previous ratings.
Reproduction of the contents of this publication, in full or in part, requires written approval from PEFINDO.
Page PEFINDO is not responsible for publications by other parties of
contents related to the ratings given by PEFINDO.