Finance Compendium PartII DMS IIT Delhi
Finance Compendium PartII DMS IIT Delhi
Finance Compendium PartII DMS IIT Delhi
Compendium
Part-I: Basics of Finance
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Table of Contents
Accounting
Basic Accounting 4
Golden Rules of Accounting 5
Difference between types of accounting 6
Types of Business 6
Accounting Standards 8
Balance Sheet 10
Income Statement 13
Cash Flow Statement 15
Financial Ratios 18
DuPont Analysis 21
Trial Balance 22
Accounting Loss 24
Cash Cycle of Credits 25
Frequently Asked Questions 25
Economics
What is Economics? 26
Supply, Demand and Equilibrium 27
Elasticity 29
Other Concepts 30
Market Structures 30
National Income 31
Inflation 33
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Policy Measures 34
Balance of Payments 35
Currencies & Exchange Rates 36
Economic Crises 37
Indian Economic Liberalization of 1991 42
Statistics
Descriptive & Inferential Statistics 44
Basic Statistical Concepts 45
Different Types of Data 48
Population vs. Sample 50
Distributions 51
Portfolio Theory 52
Risk Measurement & Management 53
Conclusion 55
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Basic Accounting:
What is Bookkeeping?
Bookkeeping involves recording, on a daily basis, the financial transactions of the
company. This enables the companies to track all information on their books to make key
operating, investing, and financing decisions.
What is accounting?
According to the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA):
“Accounting is the art of recording, classifying, and summarizing, in a significant manner
and in terms of money, transactions, and events which are, in part at least, of a financial
character, and interpreting the results thereof.”
Accounting Basis:
There are two primary methods of accounting: cash basis and accrual basis. These
methods differ in when a company records transactions in its books.
1. Cash Basis Accounting: In cash basis accounting, transactions are recorded when
cash is received or paid. This means revenue is recognized when cash is received,
and expenses are recorded when cash is paid out.
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2. Accrual Basis Accounting: In accrual basis accounting, transactions are recorded
when they occur, regardless of when cash is received or paid. Revenue is
recognized when it's earned, and expenses are recorded when they're incurred,
regardless of when the cash actually changes hands.
For example: A business sells goods for ₹ 20,000, and the customer does not make
the payment immediately. In this case, no transaction would be recorded under the
cash basis of accounting since cash has not yet been received. However, in the case
of an accrual basis of accounting, the transaction would be recorded in the books
of accounts as accounts receivable, indicating that the sale has been made, but the
amount is still to be received from the customer.
In summary, cash basis accounting records transactions based on cash flow, while accrual
basis accounting records transactions when they occur, providing a more accurate
representation of a company's financial performance.
a) ₹ 50,000 cash flowing into the business bank account, which would result in an
increase in the assets
b) Since ₹ 50,000 rupees has been borrowed from the bank, it is a liability for the
business. Thus, the business’ liability would also increase by ₹ 50,000.
This system helps maintain accuracy in financial records and provides a clear picture of
a company's financial health.
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2. Debit what comes in, credit what goes out – This rule applies to real accounts that
relate to assets, liabilities, and equity.
For example – A company purchases machinery for cash, which is an asset; hence,
machinery has come in, so it will be debited, and money has gone out so that Cash a/c
will be credited.
3. Debit all expenses and losses and credit all income and gains – This rule applies
to nominal accounts, including revenue, expenses, profits, and losses.
For example – The company pays salaries to employees, and since salaries are an
expense, salary a/c will be debited.
Books of Accounts:
• Cash Book: Records all cash receipts and payments, including bank deposits and
withdrawals.
• Bank Book: A detailed record of all banking transactions, separate from cash
transactions.
• Sales Book: Records all credit sales of goods and services.
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financial and non-
financial data.
Types of Businesses:
1. Sole Proprietorship: A business owned and operated by a single individual. The
owner is personally responsible for all business debts and liabilities. It is the
simplest form of business structure with minimal legal formalities.
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3. Limited Liability Partnership (LLP): A hybrid business structure that combines
elements of partnerships and corporations. Partners have limited liability, meaning
they are not personally liable for the debts and liabilities of the LLP.
5. Private Company: A company whose shares are held privately by a small group
of shareholders. Shares are not publicly traded, and ownership is usually restricted
to founders, investors, and employees. Private companies are subject to fewer
regulatory requirements compared to public companies.
Accounting Standards:
Accounting standards refer to a set of principles, rules, and guidelines that are used by
accountants to prepare, present, and disclose financial information in financial statements.
Many countries across the world follow international standards such as the IFRS
(International Financial Reporting Standards), and US GAAP (Generally Accepted
Accounting Principles) in addition to the local standards. India follows the Indian
Accounting Standard (Ind AS). These standards ensure consistency, comparability, and
transparency in financial reporting across different organizations. These standards are:
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2. Matching Principle-
Definition: Expenses should be recorded in the period in which they are incurred
to produce revenues, aligning expenses with corresponding revenues.
Example: Sales commissions are expensed in the same period when the related
sales revenue is recognized.
4. Cost Concept-
Definition: All assets are recorded on the books at purchase price, not a market
price,
with some exceptions.
Example: If a company purchases a building for $500,000, the building would be
initially recorded on the balance sheet at that cost, regardless of any changes in
market value or depreciation over time.
5. Conservative concept-
Definition: Use of conservatism while recording business transactions. Anticipate
profits only after they are realized but provide for all the probable future losses.
Example: Record losses immediately upon discovery, whereas gains are
recognized only when they are certain, treat unrealized gains as speculative and do
not include them in financial statements
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7. Accrual Concept-
Definition: Expenses incurred for a particular accounting period should
be recognized in the same period, irrespective of the exchange of cash during the
same accounting period.
Example: A company records revenue when it earns it, even if the customer hasn't
paid yet, adhering to the accrual concept.
8. Consistency Principle-
Definition: The consistency principle dictates that once a company adopts an
accounting method or principle, it should continue using it consistently across all
accounting periods unless there is a valid reason for change.
Example: If the company charges straight-line depreciation, it can’t shift to the
written down value method all of sudden.
However, it doesn’t mean that company can’t change its accounting methods it may
do so by providing the effect of change of method and justification for the same.
Financial Statements:
Financial statements are the formal records that provide an overview of the financial
activities and position of a business entity. These statements are prepared periodically
(usually at the end of each accounting period) and are essential for external stakeholders,
such as investors, creditors, regulators, and analysts, to assess the financial health and
performance of the company.
The three financial statements are:
1. Balance sheet
2. Income statement or P&L statement
3. Cash Flow Statement
Balance sheet
A balance sheet is a financial statement that reports a company's assets, liabilities, and
shareholders' equity at a specific point in time and provides a basis for computing rates
of return and evaluating its capital structure. It is a financial statement that provides a
snapshot of what a company owns and owes, as well as the amount invested by
shareholders. The balance sheet has two parts, assets, and liabilities (including
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shareholder’s equity). As the name balance sheet suggests, at any given point, these two
should balance each other:
Current Assets:
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- Short-Term Investments 5,00,000
- Inventory 10,00,000
Non-Current Assets:
- Goodwill 5,00,000
Current Liabilities:
Non-Current Liabilities:
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- Deferred Tax Liabilities 1,50,000
Shareholders' Equity:
Income Statement:
What is Income Statement:
The income statement/P&L Account provides a summary of a company's revenues,
expenses, and profits over a specific period. It helps assess profitability.
Amount (INR)
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Less: Selling expenses 15,00,000
COGS: Costs directly associated with the production of the goods or services the
company sells.
Includes:
1. Operating Activities: Cash generated from or used in the core business operations.
2. Investing Activities: Cash used in or generated from buying and selling assets.
3. Financing Activities: Cash exchanged with lenders and shareholders.
Format: The statement is divided into sections for operating, investing, and financing
activities, summarizing the net cash flow in each area.
Operating Activities
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- Depreciation & Amortization 5,00,000
Investing Activities
Financing Activities
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- Dividends Paid -1,00,000
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Financial Ratios:
Financial ratios are key indicators used to analyze a company's financial health,
performance, efficiency, and profitability. They provide insights into various aspects of a
business, from its ability to meet short-term obligations to its overall profitability and
growth potential.
Types:
1. Liquidity Ratios
Measure a company's ability to meet its short-term obligations with its short-term assets.
• Current Ratio: Indicates whether the company can cover its short-term liabilities
with its short-term assets.
o Formula: Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities
o Example: If a company has current assets of $200,000 and current liabilities
of $100,000, its current ratio is 2.0, suggesting good short-term financial
health.
Interpretation: A current ratio of 2.0 indicates that the company has $2 in current assets
for every $1 of current liabilities. This is a strong liquidity position and suggests that the
company should have no trouble meeting its short-term obligations.
• Quick Ratio (Acid-Test Ratio): Similar to the current ratio but excludes inventory
from assets, focusing on the most liquid assets.
o Formula: Quick Ratio = (Current Assets - Inventory) / Current Liabilities
o Example: With current assets of $200,000, inventory of $50,000, and current
liabilities of $100,000, the quick ratio is 1.5.
Interpretation: A quick ratio of 1.5 is considered healthy, as it means the company has
$1.5 in liquid assets for every $1 of current liabilities, after excluding less liquid assets
like inventory. This indicates the company is in a good position to cover its short-term
debts even without relying on the sale of inventory, which might not be as quickly
convertible to cash.
2. Efficiency Ratios
Evaluate how effectively a company uses its assets and liabilities internally.
• Inventory Turnover: Measures how quickly inventory is sold and replaced over
a period.
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o Formula: Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold / Average Inventory
o Example: If the cost of goods sold is $300,000 and the average inventory is
$50,000, the inventory turnover is 6 times per year.
Interpretation: An inventory turnover ratio of 6 implies that the company sells and
replaces its inventory six times a year. This can be interpreted as efficient inventory
management, assuming this rate is in line with industry standards. A higher turnover
indicates effective inventory use and less money tied up in inventory, whereas a lower
turnover may suggest overstocking or weak sales.
3. Profitability Ratios
Show how well a company generates profit from its operations.
• Gross Profit Margin: Indicates the percentage of revenue that exceeds the cost
of goods sold.
o Formula: Gross Profit Margin = (Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold) /
Revenue
o Example: If revenue is $500,000 and COGS is $300,000, the gross profit
margin is 40%.
Interpretation: A gross profit margin of 40% means that the company retains 40 cents
as gross profit for every dollar of revenue. This is a measure of the efficiency of
production and the company's pricing strategy. A high margin indicates that the company
is selling its products at a significantly higher price than the cost of goods sold, which is
generally positive.
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• Net Profit Margin: Reveals the percentage of revenue that remains as net
income after all expenses.
o Formula: Net Profit Margin = Net Income / Revenue
o Example: With net income of $100,000 and revenue of $500,000, the net
profit margin is 20%.
Interpretation: A net profit margin of 20% indicates that the company retains 20 cents
for every dollar of revenue after all expenses have been paid. This is a strong profitability
indicator, showing how well the company converts revenue into actual profit.
4. Solvency Ratios
Assess a company's ability to meet its long-term obligations.
• Debt to Equity Ratio: Compares a company's total liabilities to its shareholder
equity to evaluate financial leverage.
o Formula: Debt to Equity Ratio = Total Liabilities / Shareholder Equity
o Example: If total liabilities are $400,000 and shareholder equity is
$600,000, the ratio is 0.67.
Interpretation: A debt to equity ratio of 0.67 means that the company uses 67 cents of
debt for every dollar of equity. This indicates a more conservative use of leverage and
suggests the company is not overly reliant on debt to finance its operations, which can be
a positive sign for long-term financial stability.
5. Coverage Ratios
Determine a company's ability to service its debt and meet other financial obligations.
• Interest Coverage Ratio: Measures how easily a company can pay interest on
outstanding debt with its earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT).
o Formula: Interest Coverage Ratio = EBIT / Interest Expenses
o Example: With EBIT of $200,000 and interest expenses of $40,000, the
coverage ratio is 5.
Interpretation: An interest coverage ratio of 5 suggests that the company earns enough
to cover its interest expenses 5 times over. This is an indication of strong financial health
and implies that the company is well-positioned to meet its interest payments on
outstanding debt.
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DuPont Analysis
Breaks down return on equity (ROE) into three components: profit margin, asset turnover,
and financial leverage, providing a deeper understanding of what drives a company's
ROE.
Return on Equity (ROE): An ROE of 20% through DuPont Analysis breaks down
as follows:
o Net Profit Margin (Net Income/Revenue): The company has a net margin
of 20%, indicating it is efficient in converting sales into profit.
o Asset Turnover (Revenue/Assets): With a ratio of 0.5, for every rupee in
assets, the company generates 50 paise in sales. This shows how effectively
the company is using its assets to generate revenue.
o Equity Multiplier (Assets/Equity): A multiplier of 2 suggests the company
has twice as many assets as it has equity, signifying leverage of 2:1.
This 20% ROE indicates that the company is using its assets efficiently to generate profits
and has a reasonable amount of leverage, contributing positively to the equity holders'
return. The DuPont components highlight the areas of strength and potential for
improvement in the company's financial strategy.
Salvage Value
Definition: The estimated residual value of an asset at the end of its useful life.
Example: A piece of machinery bought for $10,000 with a 10-year life and a salvage
value of $1,000 means it will be worth $1,000 after 10 years of use.
Reserves
Long-term Asset Replacement Reserve: Funds set aside for replacing long-term
assets when they reach the end of their useful lives.
Dividend Equalisation Reserve: A reserve to smooth out dividends paid to
shareholders, ensuring a steady dividend payout despite fluctuating earnings.
Share Premium
The amount received by a company over and above the face value of its shares when
issued.
Different Ledgers
General ledger (summarizes all transactions within a period), Sales ledger (records
accounts receivable), Purchase ledger (records accounts payable), and others, each
serving to categorize and summarize specific types of transactions.
Trial Balance:
Definition: A statement that lists the balances of all ledgers accounts to check the
mathematical accuracy of the double-entry accounting system.
Example: Debit and credit balances are totaled to ensure they match, indicating that
entries are correctly recorded.
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Errors in Trial Balance
The trial balance is a bookkeeping worksheet where the balances of all ledgers are
compiled into debit and credit account column totals that should match. An accurate trial
balance does not guarantee that there are no errors, but an inaccurate trial balance
indicates that there are certainly mistakes in the ledger accounts. Here are the types of
errors that can occur:
1. Errors of Omission
2. Errors of Commission
o Definition: These errors occur when an entry is made to the correct type of
account but with some incorrect detail. This can include recording the right
transaction in the wrong account, transposing numbers, or recording the
incorrect amount.
o Example: If a payment of INR 5,200 to a supplier is incorrectly recorded as
INR 2,500, the accounts payable and cash account will both be incorrect by
INR 2,700, but the trial balance will still tally because the error is equal and
opposite.
3. Errors of Principle
o Definition: An error of principle is a transaction that is recorded in violation
of the fundamental principles of accounting. It occurs when an entry is
posted to the incorrect category of account.
o Example: A company purchases a piece of machinery and records it as an
expense rather than capitalizing it as an asset. This error will affect the
depreciation calculation and the profit reported.
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Accounting Loss
Definition: Occurs when expenses exceed revenues in a given period, indicating that
the business has not generated enough income to cover its costs.
Example: A company incurs $200,000 in costs but only generates $150,000 in
revenue, resulting in a $50,000 accounting loss.
Amortisation
Definition: Amortization involves expensing the cost of an intangible asset in the
income statement over its useful life, reducing the asset's carrying value on the
balance sheet over time. This accounting treatment helps companies align the
asset's cost with the revenues it generates, adhering to the matching principle in
accounting.
Example: A company acquires a patent for a new technology at a cost of $100,000.
The patent has a legal and useful life of 10 years, with no salvage value at the end
of this period. The company would amortize the patent by expensing $10,000
annually for 10 years.
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Extraordinary Gain in Depreciation
Definition: Conversely, an extraordinary gain in the context of depreciation would
involve situations where an asset's value or useful life unexpectedly increases due
to rare events. While less common, these situations can lead to adjusting
depreciation expense downwards.
Example: Suppose a company's specialized machinery was expected to become
obsolete due to technological advancements, and its depreciation was accelerated
accordingly. If a sudden market demand for the product made with this machinery
extends its useful life, the company might adjust its depreciation schedule to reflect
the lower annual depreciation expense, resulting in an extraordinary gain.
Economics studies the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services by
individuals, businesses, and countries. The objective of economics is to ensure scarce
resources are allocated such that overall welfare is maximised.
Microeconomics Macroeconomics
Definition Deals with individual economic Deals with the behaviour of the economy
agents such as consumers, firms, of an entire country or the world
and household
Managerial Economics
Managerial economics refers to the application of economic theory and the tools of analysis
of decision science to examine how an organization can achieve its aims or objectives most
efficiently. Statistical analysis, operations research and game theory are some of the tools
used in managerial economics.
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Supply, Demand & Equilibrium:
Demand
Demand refers to the amount of goods/service consumers are willing and able to purchase at
the given price. A rise in the price of a good/service decreases the quantity demanded.
Conversely, a fall in price will increase the quantity demanded. This inverse relationship
between price and quantity demanded is the Law of Demand.
Supply
Supply refers to the amount of goods/service a producer is willing to supply at the given
price. The Law of Supply states that a higher price leads to a higher quantity supplied and a
lower price lead to a lower quantity supplied.
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Equilibrium
The equilibrium theory states that the price for a particular good/service will vary until it
settles at a point where the quantity demanded will equal the quantity supplied. The point
where the supply and demand curves intersect gives us the equilibrium price and the
equilibrium quantity.
Surplus
Surplus is a situation where the quantity supplied is higher than the quantity demanded, and
the price is higher than equilibrium price. In this situation, suppliers are unable to sell and
respond by cutting their prices. These price reductions in turn stimulate demand. Therefore,
if the price is above the equilibrium level, incentives built into the structure of demand and
supply will create pressures for the price to fall toward the equilibrium.
Shortage
Shortage is a situation where the quantity demanded exceeds the quantity supplied. Sellers
respond to the shortage by raising their prices without losing sales. These price increases
cause the quantity demanded to fall and the quantity supplied to rise, and the market moves
towards equilibrium.
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Elasticity
Definition
The price elasticity of demand measures how much the quantity demanded responds to a
change in price. Demand for a good is said to be elastic if the quantity demanded responds
substantially to changes in the price. Demand is said to be inelastic if the quantity demanded
responds only slightly to changes in the price.
The price elasticity of supply measures how much the quantity supplied responds to changes
in the price. Supply of a good is said to be elastic if the quantity supplied responds
substantially to changes in the price. Supply is said to be inelastic if the quantity supplied
responds only slightly to changes in the price.
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Other Concepts:
Opportunity Cost
The “opportunity cost” of a resource is the value of the next alternative use of that resource.
If, for example, you spend time going to a movie, you cannot spend that time at home reading
a book. Then the opportunity cost of seeing the movie is the benefit you forgo by not reading
the book
Economies of Scale
Economies of scale are the cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to their scale of
operation. An increase in scale decreases the cost per unit. It arises due to specialization.
However, sometimes the total cost rises as output increases. This is called diseconomies of
scale. Coordination problems in large organizations are usually the cause.
Adverse Selection
Adverse selection refers generally to a situation in which sellers have information that buyers
do not have, or vice versa, and this information asymmetry is exploited. Adverse selection
can be seen in the markets for used cars or insurance.
Moral Hazard
Moral hazard is a situation in which one party engages in risky behavior or fails to act in
good faith because it knows the other party bears the economic consequences of their
behavior. Any time two parties come into an agreement with one another, moral hazard can
occur.
Market Structures:
Definition
Industries differ from one another in terms of how many sellers there are in a specific market,
how easy or difficult it is for a new firm to enter, and the type of products that they sell.
Economists refer to this as an industry's market structure.
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Perfect Competition
Monopoly
Oligopoly
An oligopoly is a market structure where there are only a few firms who have the majority
production in the market system. Oligopolists seek to dominate through restrictive trade
practices, such as collusion and market sharing. Oligopolists compete through non-price
competition and product differentiation.
National Income:
Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product is the total value of all final goods and services produced within
the boundary of a nation for one year. GDP includes income of foreigners in a country
but excludes income of expatriates.
GNP is the value of all final goods and services produced by the residents of a country in
a financial year. Net income from abroad is added which is the difference between the
amount that a country’s citizens and companies earn abroad, and the amount that foreign
citizens and companies earn in that country.
GNP = GDP + Net Income from Abroad
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Net Domestic Product
NDP is calculated by deducting the depreciation of plant and Machinery from GDP.
NDP = GDP - Depreciation
The product at market prices indicates the total amount actually paid by the final buyers.
The national product at factor cost is a measure of the total amount earned by factors of
production for their contribution.
Factor Cost = Market Price - Taxes + Subsidies
Net National Product at factor cost is the true indicator of the national income in an
economy.
NNPfc = NNPMP - Net Indirect Taxes
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Inflation:
Definition
Inflation refers to the general rise in the price level in an economy. Inflation is measured
as the rate of change in a price index such as the Consumer Price Index or the Wholesale
Price Index over time. A healthy amount of inflation is essential to promote growth.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of
prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, housing,
medical care, recreation and communication.
The WPI reflects the change in price of goods that are bought and sold in the wholesale
market. It includes products such as food grains, fruits, vegetables, meats, fish, fuel and
power.
• Deflation: It is the opposite of inflation. There is a general drop in the price level
of an economy.
• Disinflation: It is the reduction in the rate of inflation
• Hyperinflation: It is inflation occurring at a very high rate
• Stagflation: It is the combination of inflation, slowing economic growth and
unemployment
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Policy Measures:
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy refers to the measures adopted by governments to stabilise and drive
economic growth, specifically by manipulating the levels and allocations of taxes and
government expenditures. It can be either expansionary or contractionary. An
expansionary fiscal policy is one that is used at times of slowdown of the economy.
During such times, governments cut taxes and increase government spending to spur
economic growth. On the other hand, a contractionary fiscal policy is aimed at lowering
inflation as it tends to reduce the quantum of money by raising taxes and reducing
spending.
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy is the action taken by the central bank of a nation to control the money
supply and achieve macroeconomic goals. The primary objective is to maintain price
stability while achieving economic growth and development. Central banks have many
tools at their disposal to implement monetary policy. Some of them are given below:
Instruments:
• Repo Rate
• Reverse Repo Rate
• Open Market Operations
• Cash Reserve Ratio
• Margin Lending
• Credit Rationing
Business Cycles
Business cycles are the contractual and expansionary movements of the economic activity
in an economy. They are characterized by fluctuations not just in output but also in
consumption expenditure, investment, and employment. Huge fluctuations on either side
are not healthy for the economy. The government moderates these cycles via policy
measures.
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Balance of Payments:
Definition
The balance of payments is the record of the transactions of the residents of a country
with the rest of the world. It is an important indicator of the health of a country’s economy.
Any payment by the country’s residents is a deficit item, and vice versa. There are two
main accounts:
The current account records trade in goods and services and transfers such as remittances
and investment income.
The capital account records the inflows and outflows of capital that is used for
transactions related to assets such as stocks, bonds and land. A surplus indicates an inflow
of money into the country, while a deficit indicates money moving out of the country
towards foreign holdings.
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Currencies & Exchange Rates:
Overview
Currently, there are 180 currencies internationally recognized as legal tenders. The values
of these various currencies relative to each other is represented by the exchange rate.
Exchange rates influence everything from international trade and investments to
economic competitiveness. Thus, the central banks have an exchange rate policy to
achieve economic objectives.
Forex Reserves
Foreign exchange reserves are the monetary assets held by the central bank in a foreign
currency. These assets can be cash, bonds, deposits or T-bills. Forex reserves are mostly
held in USD, followed by the Euro, Yen, and increasingly the Yuan. Forex reserves are
used primarily to settle international trade and to maintain exchange rate stability.
Forex Market
The foreign exchange market enables participants to buy, sell and exchange currencies
for transactions, hedging and speculative purposes. Individuals who trade on the forex
market include central banks, investment banks, commercial companies, hedge funds and
retail forex brokers. It is the largest financial market and has its main center in London.
It is an exchange rate where the value of one currency is pegged to the value of another
currency or a commodity such as oil or gold. This is undertaken by the central bank or the
government of the country. Having a fixed exchange rate provides currency rate certainty
for businesses and ensures imports from developed economies are not too expensive.
Flexible or floating exchange rate is a regime where the central bank allows the exchange
rate to adjust itself according to the supply and demand. This leads to currency rate
uncertainty, but also allows for greater autonomy regarding monetary and fiscal policy.
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Dirty Floating Exchange Rate:
In practice, all floating exchange rates are “dirty”, i.e. they are managed by central banks,
who intervene by selling and buying foreign currencies to influence exchange rates. This
serves as a buffer against external economic shocks.
Economic Crises
The Great Depression (1929-1939)
Cause: The Great Depression began with the stock market crash in October 1929, which
led to a drastic decline in consumer spending and investment.
Underlying Issues: The economic downturn was exacerbated by bank failures, reduced
consumer spending, and poor economic policies. The lack of regulatory oversight on
banks and the stock market contributed significantly to the crisis.
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OPEC Oil Price Shock (1973)
Cause: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) proclaimed an oil
embargo in response to the U.S. support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War, leading
to a significant increase in oil prices.
Underlying Issues: The sudden hike in oil prices exposed the heavy dependence of the
world's economy on oil, particularly in industrialized nations.
Lasting Implications: The crisis led to a period of economic stagnation and inflation in
many countries, known as stagflation, and prompted a shift towards energy conservation
and the exploration of alternative energy sources.
Lasting Implications: The crisis resulted in a lost decade for Latin America, with low
economic growth and high inflation. It led to significant economic reforms and the
adoption of more market-oriented economic policies in the region.
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Steps Taken by Government:
1. Debt Restructuring: Negotiations led to the Brady Plan, which allowed countries
to restructure their debt with creditor banks, partially backed by U.S. Treasury
bonds.
2. Economic Reforms: Implementation of structural adjustment programs,
including privatization, deregulation, and trade liberalization, often under the
guidance of the IMF and World Bank.
Underlying Issues: High levels of foreign debt, speculative investments, and weak
financial regulations in Asian economies contributed to the crisis.
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Underlying Issues: High fiscal deficits, over-reliance on commodity exports, and
political instability were significant contributors to the crisis.
Lasting Implications: The burst of the bubble led to significant losses for investors and
the collapse of many dot-com companies, but also paved the way for the growth of
sustainable tech companies.
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Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008)
Cause: The crisis was primarily triggered by the collapse of the housing bubble in the
United States, leading to defaults on subprime mortgages and the failure of major
financial institutions.
Underlying Issues: High-risk lending practices, excessive risk-taking by banks, and
inadequate financial regulation contributed to the crisis.
Lasting Implications: The crisis led to the Great Recession, with significant impacts on
global employment, trade, and economic growth. It prompted a reevaluation of financial
regulatory frameworks worldwide.
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Steps Taken by Government:
1. Bailout Packages: The EU and IMF provided financial assistance to affected
countries (e.g., Greece, Ireland, Portugal) in exchange for austerity measures and
economic reforms.
2. European Stability Mechanism (ESM): Establishment of the ESM to provide a
permanent mechanism for managing financial crises in Eurozone countries.
3. Fiscal Compact: Adoption of stricter fiscal rules for EU member states to ensure
budgetary discipline and stability in the Eurozone.
Key Aspects:
1. Removal of Restrictions: The dismantling of the License Raj, which was a system
of licenses and regulations that had hindered private enterprise since 1947.
2. Foreign Investment: Elimination of restrictions on foreign investment, allowing
foreign companies to bring modern technology and industrial development to India.
3. Reduction of Import Tariffs: The government reduced import tariffs, opened up
the public sector to private enterprise, and cut back on state spending.
The impact of these reforms was significant. They led to an increase in industrial growth,
a shift towards a more services-oriented economy, and a surge in foreign investment. The
reforms also created millions of new jobs and made India globally competitive in various
sectors such as telecommunications, software, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology.
Goals:
1. Expansion of the role of private and foreign investment to accelerate economic
growth and development.
2. Addressing the balance of payments crisis and improving the external account
position.
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3. Enhancing the participation of the private sector in India's economic advancement.
4. Elevating foreign direct investment in the Indian industrial landscape.
5. Encouraging healthy competition among domestic enterprises.
6. Facilitating global expansion of the Indian economy.
7. Boosting foreign trade for bolstering the nation's exports.
8. Attracting foreign investments to modernize infrastructure and industrial
development.
9. Increasing the efficiency of resource allocation and utilization.
10.Creating a more consumer-driven and market-oriented economy.
Criticisms
1. Negative Impact on the Poor: Critics argue that the liberalization policies have
led to increased income inequality and poverty, as the benefits of economic growth
have not been evenly distributed.
2. Environmental Concerns: The liberalization policies have led to the expansion of
industries and relaxed regulations to attract investment, which has raised concerns
about the environmental impact of these policies.
3. Job Losses: The liberalization policies have led to the closure of many public
sector enterprises, resulting in job losses for many workers.
4. Foreign Dependence: Critics argue that the liberalization policies have made India
too dependent on foreign investment and technology, which could lead to a loss of
economic sovereignty.
5. Inadequate Regulation: Critics argue that the liberalization policies have led to
inadequate regulation of the financial sector, which has contributed to financial
instability and crises.
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Introduction to Statistics in Finance
Statistics form the backbone of financial analysis, enabling professionals to derive
meaningful insights from data, make informed decisions, and manage risk effectively.
This section delves into the essential statistical concepts and their applications in finance,
elucidated with relevant visual aids and examples.
Statistics in finance is bifurcated into two primary branches: descriptive statistics, which
provides a summary of historical data, and inferential statistics, which uses sample data
to make predictions or inferences about a broader population.
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Basic Statistical Concepts:
1. Mean (Average)
• Concept: The mean is the sum of all values divided by the number of values. It's a
measure of central tendency.
• Finance Example: Calculating the average return of a stock over a specific period
helps investors gauge its typical performance.
2. Median
• Concept: The median is the middle value when data points are arranged in order.
It represents the central point of a data set.
• Finance Example: The median house price in a region shows the central market
price, unaffected by extreme highs or lows, useful for real estate investors.
3. Mode
• Concept: The mode is the most frequently occurring value in a data set.
• Finance Example: In loan analysis, identifying the mode of loan amounts can help
banks understand the most common loan demand among customers.
4. Range
• Concept: The range is the difference between the highest and lowest values in a
dataset. It measures dispersion.
• Finance Example: The range of daily stock prices over a month provides insight
into the volatility of that stock.
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5. Variance and Standard Deviation
• Concept: Variance measures how far each number in the set is from the mean.
Standard deviation is the square root of the variance, providing a measure of spread
in the same units as the data.
• Finance Example: Standard deviation is used in finance as a measure of the risk
associated with an investment's returns.
• Concept: Percentiles are values below which a certain percentage of data falls.
Quartiles divide the data into four equal parts.
• Finance Example: The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles (quartiles) of income
levels can help financial analysts understand income distribution among a
population for targeting financial products.
7. Correlation
8. Covariance
9. Correlation Coefficient
• Concept: The correlation coefficient is a statistical measure of the strength of the
relationship between the relative movements of two variables. The values range
between -1.0 and 1.0.
The interpretations of the values are:
• -1 indicates perfect negative correlation. The variables tend to move in
opposite directions (i.e., when one variable increases, the other variable
decreases).
• 0 indicates no correlation. The variables do not have a relationship with each
other.
• 1 indicates perfect positive correlation. The variables tend to move in the
same direction (i.e., when one variable increases, the other variable also
increases).
• Use in finance: The concept is primarily used in portfolio management. A
thorough understanding of this statistical concept is essential to successful portfolio
optimization.
• Concept: Simple linear regression analyses the relationship between two variables
by fitting a linear equation to observed data. One variable is considered to be an
explanatory variable, and the other is considered to be a dependent variable.
• Finance Example: Predicting a company's sales based on advertising spend. By
analysing past data, a company can model how changes in their advertising budget
might affect sales.
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11. Probability
Categorical
Examples of categorical variables are race, sex, age group, and educational level.
Numerical
Numerical is further classified as –
• Discrete - can only take certain values. Example: the number of students in a class
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• Continuous - can take any value (within a range) A person's height: could be
any value (within the range of human heights)
Nominal Data:
This type of data represents categories that do not have a natural order or ranking. For
example, the types of industries (technology, healthcare, finance, etc.), company names,
or types of currencies are nominal. There's no inherent order to these categories; they're
used to label variables without a quantitative value.
Ordinal Data:
Unlike nominal data, ordinal data involves categories with a natural order or ranking but
without a precise mathematical difference between them. An example could be credit
ratings (AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, etc.), where the ratings indicate a quality order, but the
intervals between the ratings are not necessarily equal or known.
Quantitative Data
Quantitative data is numeric, allowing for measurement and quantification. It's divided
into:
Interval Data: This type involves numbers that are placed on a scale with equal intervals
between them but doesn't have a true zero point. Temperature in Celsius or Fahrenheit is
a classic example; while you can say that 30°C is hotter than 20°C and quantify the
difference (10°C), the zero point (0°C) doesn't mean "no temperature." In finance,
examples might include dates and times when events occur, as they can be measured
relative to each other but don't imply the absence of the concept they measure at zero.
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Ratio Data: Ratio data has all the properties of interval data, with the addition of a true
zero point, meaning the absence of the quantity. In finance, this could include values like
revenue, profit, or stock prices, where zero signifies that the quantity does not exist or is
completely absent. This data type allows for a wide range of descriptive statistics and
mathematical operations, including meaningful comparisons using ratios (e.g., one value
can be twice as much as another).
Represents the entire group of individuals Subset of the population selected for data
or elements of interest collection and analysis
Studies aim to the parameters of the Statistics are used to make inferences
population about the population parameters
Difficult to gather data for an entire More feasible to collect data from a sample
population
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Distributions and Financial Implications:
Normal Distribution
Properties
• The mean, mode and median are all equal.
• The curve is symmetric at the centre (i.e., around the mean, μ).
• Exactly half of the values are to the left of centre and exactly half the values are to
the right.
• The total area under the curve is 1.
Z-Score
The z score tells you how many standard deviations from the mean your score is.
A z-score of 1 is 1 standard deviation above the mean. The empirical rule tells you what
percentage of your data falls within a certain number of standard deviations from the
mean:
• 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean.
• 95% of the data falls within two standard deviations of the mean.
• 99.7% of the data falls within three standard deviations of the mean.
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Statistics and Portfolio Theory
Concept: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) uses statistical methods to construct
portfolios to maximize expected return for a given level of risk (or minimize risk for a
given level of expected return), emphasizing the benefits of diversification.
Finance Example: Using variance and covariance to determine the optimal mix of
assets that minimizes the portfolio's overall risk while aiming for a desired return.
The scatter plot above demonstrates the correlation between two assets in a diversified
portfolio, with Asset A Returns on the x-axis and Asset B Returns on the y-axis. The
correlation coefficient, calculated as approximately 0.90, indicates a strong positive
correlation between the returns of these two assets. This means that as the returns of
Asset A increase, the returns of Asset B tend to increase as well, which is visually
represented by the clustering of points along a line in the scatter plot.
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The Role of Statistics in Risk Measurement and
Management:
1. Value at Risk (VaR)
• Definition: VaR is a statistical technique used to measure and quantify the level of
financial risk within a firm, portfolio, or position over a specific time frame. It
estimates the maximum expected loss that a portfolio might suffer over a given
period under normal market conditions, at a certain confidence level (e.g., 95% or
99%).
• Application: VaR is widely used by banks, investment firms, and corporations to
manage and control their risk exposure. For example, if a portfolio has a 1-day 95%
VaR of $1 million, it means there is a 95% confidence that the portfolio will not
lose more than $1 million in a single day.
• Definition: CVaR, also known as Expected Shortfall, measures the expected losses
that occur beyond the VaR threshold. It provides an average of losses in the worst-
case scenarios.
• Application: CVaR is used alongside VaR to give a more comprehensive risk
assessment. It's particularly useful for understanding the tail risk of a portfolio—
how severe losses could be in the worst-case scenarios beyond the VaR limit.
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• The line graph above depicts risk assessment over time, showcasing volatility (blue
line with circles) and potential loss thresholds (red dashed line with crosses) over
a 12-month period. The graph illustrates how volatility and loss thresholds can vary
over time, providing insights into the dynamic nature of risk management in
financial analysis.
Conclusion:
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