DFM Poll

NORTH DAKOTA
2024 PRIMARY SURVEY
MAY 6-8, 2024
Prepared by:
DFM Research
Saint Paul, Minnesota
Executive Summary:
Heading into the final four weeks of the North Dakota Primary Election, an early May polling
snapshot shows one competitive statewide primary election, one competitive election for the
second slot in the race for Superintendent, and one race far outside the competitive range.
The closest primary race is the Republican side for North Dakota’s open seat in the U.S. House of
Representatives. With five candidates on the ballot, three of which are top-tier; the primary has
worked itself a toss-up between Rick Becker and Julie Fedorchak (Becker leads 29-26 percent).
Cara Mund is in third place with 14 percent of the vote, yet her path to victory is complicated with
an underwater favorable rating among Republican voters (24 percent favorable to 36 percent
unfavorable). Both Becker and Fedorchak have identical 45 percent favorable ratings among
Republicans, but Becker carries more unfavoable baggage (32 percent to 19 percent unfavorable
for Fedorchak). Looking at the crosstabs, ones education level fields the largest gap between the
top two candidates; Becker has a 22 point lead among non-college degree holders, while Fedorchak
is up 14 points with those who have a college degree. All the other crosstabs are basically within
the margin of error of each other. There is still plenty of campaign left for one candidate to build
upon their base, but right now all indicators are for a close race to determine the favorite in the
General Election.
Another close election is the second spot (top two advance) for Superintendent of Public Instruction.
Incumbent Kirsten Baesler has a comfortable three-to-one margin over the other two main
candidates, who are essentially vying for the second slot to the General Election. Jason Heitkamp
garners 12 percent of the primary vote, to eight percent for Jim Bartlett. Each candidate has a
pathway to second place; Bartlett doing best with Republican primary voters and Heitkamp (no
doubt based on last name) doing best with Democratic primary voters. In the race for Superintendent
on June 11th, there are two points to watch in the race: How far north of 50 percent is Kirsten Baesler
support, and which candidate vying for second can best tap their respective strengths.
The Republican primary for Governor is not particularly close; Kelly Armstrong has a commanding
lead of 38 points (56 to 18 percent) over Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller. Polling data reveals
Armstrong has strong statewide appeal among Republican voters, placing above 50 percent in every
demographic grouping, save one (Republican primary voters under age 35 are still undecided, with
Armstrong up 39 to 16 percent). And while it is not unheard of a candidate making up a nearly 40
percent deficit, the likelihood of Miller closing this large gap is complicated by the fact that she is
not particularly liked by North Dakota Republicans (favorable rating is underwater by 5 points, 36
percent favorable to 41 percent unfavorable). Contrast Miller’s poor favorable ratings with
Armstrong’s high favorable rating among Republicans (65 percent favorable to just 24 percent
unfavorable), and Miller’s pathway to a primary victory is short and closing.
The May survey was sponsored by North Dakota United and consists of 550 very likely primary
voters (which 400 indicated they would choose the Republican Party ballot) contacted via phone
and text-to-web between Monday May 6th to Wednesday May 8th. Final data weighted by age,
gender, education and VCI scores. The margin of error is plus/minus 4.2 percentage points (4.9
percentage points for Republican primary questions).
Topline
Interviews: 550 North Dakota June Primary Likely Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 4.2 percentage points with 95 percent confidence.
Interview Dates: May 6-8, 2024
Sample: Landline, mobile phone and text-by-web. Phone numbers stratified into five distinct
geographic regions to ensure balance. Final data weighted by: age, gender and VCI
scoring.
Survey Sponsor: North Dakota United
Qx: Thinking about the upcoming June Primary Election, how likely would you say you are
to vote?
Certain to vote................................................................................... 85%
Very likely to vote ........................................................................... 15
Qy: And are you likely to pick the Republican Party primary ballot or the Democratic Party
primary ballot?
Republican Party .............................................................................. 73%
Democratic Party ............................................................................. 19
(VOL) Other Party ........................................................................... 2
(VOL) Unsure .................................................................................. 7
Q1: Do you think North Dakota is moving in the right direction or is North Dakota off on the
wrong track?
Right direction .................................................................................. 45%
Wrong track ..................................................................................... 33
(VOL) Unsure .................................................................................. 23
Q2: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures; for each one, please tell me if
you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion, and if you never heard of them before, just
let me know:
Favorable Unfavorable Neutral (VOL) Never Heard Of
a: Joe Biden 29% 70 1 0

b: Donald Trump 62 36 1 1
c: Doug Burgum 54 43 3 0
d: Kelly Armstrong 53 37 9 1
e: Tammy Miller 30 47 15 8
f: Kirsten Baesler 41 33 15 11
g: Jim Bartlett 9 15 24 52
h: Jason Heitkamp 20 35 20 26
i: Rick Becker 36 41 14 9
j: Julie Fedorchak 39 22 22 17
k: Cara Mund 33 30 21 15
Q3: Now let’s look ahead to the June 11th Primary. For the Republican Party nomination for
U.S. House of Representatives, if the election was today for whom would you vote?
(Republican Primary Voters Only, n=400, MoE +/- 4.9%pts)
Rick Becker ...................................................................................... 29%
Julie Fedorchak ................................................................................. 26
Cara Mund ....................................................................................... 14
Alex Balazs ...................................................................................... 5
Sharlet Mohr .................................................................................... 0
(VOL) Undecided ............................................................................ 26
Q3a: Now let’s look ahead to the June 11th Primary. For the Democratic Party nomination for
(Democratic Primary Voters Only, n=104, MoE +/- 9.6%pts)
Trygve Hammer ............................................................................... 54%
Roland Reimers ................................................................................ 4
(VOL) Undecided ............................................................................ 42
Q4: And for the Republican Party nomination for North Dakota Governor, if the election was
today for whom would you vote? (Republican Primary Voters Only, n=400, MoE +/- 4.9%pts)
Kelly Armstrong .............................................................................. 56%
Tammy Miller .................................................................................. 18
(VOL) Undecided ............................................................................ 26
Q5: In the election for North Dakota Superintendent of Public Instruction, if the election was
today for whom would you vote? (All Primary Voters Only, n=550, MoE +/- 4.2%pts)
Kirsten Baesler ................................................................................. 38%
Jason Heitkamp ................................................................................ 12
Jim Bartlett ....................................................................................... 8
Darko Draganic ................................................................................ 1
(VOL) Undecided ............................................................................ 42
Qy: And are you likely to pick the Republican Party primary ballot or the Democratic Party
primary ballot?
Republican Party .............................................................................. 73%
Democratic Party ............................................................................. 19
(VOL) Other Party ........................................................................... 2
(VOL) Unsure .................................................................................. 7
Gender Republican Democratic Other Unsure

Men 83 12 2 3
Women 63 26 1 10
Age
18-34 70 20 6 4
35-49 76 14 3 7
50-64 72 20 1 7
65+ 72 20 1 6
Education
No College Degree 77 15 2 6
College Degree 69 23 2 7
Region
East Cities 71 23 2 4
West Cities 73 19 2 6
East Rural 62 24 3 10
Central Rural 79 13 1 7
West Rural 78 14 1 7
Primary Voter
Certain 75 18 2 6
Very Likely 61 25 2 12
Q1: Do you think North Dakota is moving in the right direction or is North Dakota off on the
wrong track?
Right direction .................................................................................. 45%
Wrong track ..................................................................................... 33
(VOL) Unsure .................................................................................. 23
Gender RD WT Unsure
Men 50 29 21
Women 40 36 24
Age
18-34 31 37 31
35-49 44 40 17
50-64 47 30 23
65+ 46 31 23
Education
No College Degree 48 26 26
College Degree 42 38 20
Region
East Cities 37 40 23
West Cities 49 32 19
East Rural 40 32 28
Central Rural 40 35 25
West Rural 60 21 19
Primary Ballot
Republican Party 56 20 24
Democratic Party 10 80 10
Unsure 22 34 43
Primary Voter
Certain 46 33 22
Very Likely 39 33 28
Q2a: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion, and if you never heard
of them before, just let me know.
Joe Biden
Very favorable ................................................................................. 14%
Somewhat favorable ........................................................................ 14
Somewhat unfavorable .................................................................... 5
Very unfavorable ............................................................................. 65
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 1
Never heard of ................................................................................. 0
Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Gender Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable
Neutral NHO
Men 11 11 7 70 2 0
Women 17 18 3 60 1 0
Age
18-34 15 13 11 56 4 1
35-49 10 22 3 65 0 0
50-64 13 11 5 71 0 1
65+ 16 13 5 64 2 0
Education
No College Degree 11 8 5 75 1 0
College Degree 17 20 5 57 1 0
Region
East Cities 16 17 3 61 3 1
West Cities 15 13 5 67 1 0
East Rural 18 19 8 54 1 0
Central Rural 10 11 8 70 0 1
West Rural 11 12 3 74 0 0
Primary Ballot
Republican Party 6 7 4 82 1 0
Democratic Party 48 41 4 5 2 0
Unsure 11 20 15 50 2 2
Primary Voter
Certain 14 13 5 66 1 0
Very Likely 13 23 2 62 0 0
Q2b: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
Donald Trump
Very favorable ................................................................................. 49%
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 1
Never heard of ................................................................................. 1

Neutral NHO
Men 53 14 5 26 2 0
Women 44 14 2 38 0 1
Age
18-34 44 11 6 33 0 6
35-49 38 18 6 37 2 0
50-64 53 16 4 28 0 1
65+ 51 12 2 33 1 0
Education
Region
East Cities 44 14 4 37 0 1
West Cities 50 10 3 35 1 1
East Rural 39 19 2 40 1 0
West Rural 60 13 5 23 0 0
Primary Ballot
Unsure 26 8 11 50 2 2
Primary Voter
Certain 51 14 3 31 1 0
Very Likely 36 12 5 43 2 2
Q2c: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
Doug Burgum
Very favorable ................................................................................. 23%
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 3
Never heard of ................................................................................. 0

Neutral NHO
Men 23 35 18 21 4 0
Women 24 26 20 28 3 0
Age
18-34 13 37 15 22 11 2
35-49 19 32 15 32 2 0
50-64 28 23 25 23 2 0
65+ 24 33 18 22 3 0
Education
Region
East Cities 34 24 16 24 1 1
West Cities 15 35 17 30 3 0
East Rural 24 27 22 24 3 0
West Rural 19 34 22 20 6 0
Primary Ballot
Unsure 24 18 24 24 9 2
Primary Voter
Certain 24 30 19 24 3 0
Very Likely 22 31 19 25 3 0
Q2d: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
Kelly Armstrong
Very favorable ................................................................................. 27%
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 9
Never heard of ................................................................................. 1

Neutral NHO
Men 30 25 17 18 9 0
Women 24 28 16 23 8 2
Age
18-34 11 24 22 19 19 6
35-49 29 19 15 27 7 3
50-64 25 30 16 19 9 1
65+ 29 28 17 18 8 0
Education
Region
East Cities 28 19 22 23 7 2
West Cities 26 23 20 22 9 0
East Rural 22 27 13 27 9 2
West Rural 34 34 8 16 7 2
Primary Ballot
Unsure 14 24 30 15 13 4
Primary Voter
Certain 29 26 15 20 9 0
Very Likely 14 28 25 21 7 6
Q2e: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
Tammy Miller
Very favorable ................................................................................. 9%
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 15
Never heard of ................................................................................. 8

Neutral NHO
Men 11 23 17 25 16 7
Women 6 20 21 30 13 9
Age
18-34 6 17 15 17 24 22
35-49 10 20 17 28 15 10
50-64 8 20 25 26 13 9
65+ 9 24 17 30 14 5
Education
Region
East Cities 12 23 21 29 8 7
West Cities 7 19 23 28 17 6
East Rural 5 27 14 31 18 5
Central Rural 12 15 19 26 17 10
West Rural 7 25 15 24 16 12
Primary Ballot
Unsure 2 22 24 20 11 21
Primary Voter
Certain 9 21 20 28 15 6
Very Likely 7 24 14 24 12 18
Q2f: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
Kirsten Baesler
Very favorable ................................................................................. 18%
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 15
Never heard of ................................................................................. 11

Neutral NHO
Men 20 20 16 19 15 10
Women 17 25 15 15 15 13
Age
18-34 20 20 7 9 17 26
35-49 14 19 17 29 11 10
50-64 12 23 22 18 14 11
65+ 23 24 14 13 16 10
Education
Region
East Cities 18 24 17 12 18 12
West Cities 15 28 17 23 12 7
East Rural 18 25 14 14 14 15
Central Rural 22 21 12 20 13 11
West Rural 22 14 19 15 16 14
Primary Ballot
Unsure 29 22 13 13 13 10
Primary Voter
Certain 20 23 15 17 15 10
Very Likely 7 22 24 14 15 20
Q2g: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
Jim Bartlett
Very favorable ................................................................................. 3%
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 24
Never heard of ................................................................................. 52

Neutral NHO
Men 4 6 4 11 24 51
Women 3 5 3 12 23 53
Age
18-34 0 2 2 15 31 50
35-49 1 6 4 17 23 49
50-64 4 7 5 8 23 52
65+ 4 5 4 11 23 54
Education
Region
East Cities 0 6 6 15 25 48
West Cities 5 7 4 13 20 51
East Rural 2 7 2 7 26 55
West Rural 6 3 3 12 23 54
Primary Ballot
Unsure 0 2 9 4 17 68
Primary Voter
Certain 4 5 4 12 25 50
Very Likely 1 8 2 8 19 61
Q2h: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
Jason Heitkamp
Very favorable ................................................................................. 4%
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 20
Never heard of ................................................................................. 26

Neutral NHO
Men 4 14 9 30 18 26
Women 4 18 12 20 21 25
Age
18-34 2 9 7 35 11 35
35-49 3 13 12 26 18 29
50-64 5 13 8 26 20 28
65+ 4 19 12 22 21 22
Education
Region
East Cities 2 15 10 25 21 26
West Cities 4 17 8 26 19 26
East Rural 3 16 12 20 22 26
West Rural 3 15 16 29 16 21
Primary Ballot
Unsure 4 29 9 14 16 28
Primary Voter
Certain 4 15 11 25 20 24
Very Likely 1 21 7 21 16 34
Q2i: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
Rick Becker
Very favorable ................................................................................. 17%
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 14
Never heard of ................................................................................. 9

Neutral NHO
Men 18 23 13 26 12 8
Women 16 17 9 33 16 10
Age
18-34 9 9 11 33 28 9
35-49 16 12 18 36 13 6
50-64 15 21 8 26 20 10
65+ 19 23 10 29 9 10
Education
Region
East Cities 12 17 15 31 15 10
West Cities 21 18 11 36 9 3
East Rural 15 17 9 27 20 12
Central Rural 20 23 10 24 11 12
West Rural 15 24 7 28 17 10
Primary Ballot
Unsure 11 16 17 26 12 18
Primary Voter
Certain 18 20 10 30 14 7
Very Likely 9 16 13 30 13 19
Q2j: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
Julie Fedorchak
Very favorable ................................................................................. 18%
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 22
Never heard of ................................................................................. 17

Neutral NHO
Men 20 24 8 13 21 13
Women 16 20 14 9 22 20
Age
18-34 7 9 17 11 33 22
35-49 15 19 16 10 23 18
50-64 15 20 10 11 22 22
65+ 22 25 9 11 19 13
Education
Region
East Cities 17 23 12 10 21 17
West Cities 19 24 10 16 17 13
East Rural 11 20 8 11 33 17
West Rural 21 19 14 8 17 22
Primary Ballot
Unsure 10 40 8 0 23 19
Primary Voter
Certain 20 20 12 12 21 15
Very Likely 6 29 6 8 27 24
Q2k: I’m now going to read you some names of public figures and organizations. For each
Cara Mund
Very favorable ................................................................................. 11%
(VOL) Neutral .................................................................................. 21
Never heard of ................................................................................. 15

Neutral NHO
Men 10 21 11 21 21 15
Women 12 23 14 15 21 16
Age
18-34 6 22 19 11 24 19
35-49 18 19 13 19 20 12
50-64 12 17 8 16 26 20
65+ 9 25 13 20 19 14
Education
Region
East Cities 10 29 12 16 20 13
West Cities 14 22 15 24 18 8
East Rural 13 20 13 9 27 18
Central Rural 10 18 12 16 24 20
West Rural 9 15 10 23 20 22
Primary Ballot
Unsure 24 22 13 7 19 15
Primary Voter
Certain 11 21 13 19 21 15
Very Likely 12 27 11 10 21 20
Q3: Now let’s look ahead to the June 11th Primary. For the Republican Party nomination for
(Republican Primary Voters Only, n=400, MoE +/- 4.9%pts)
Rick Becker ...................................................................................... 29%
Julie Fedorchak ................................................................................. 26
Cara Mund ....................................................................................... 14
Alex Balazs ...................................................................................... 5
Sharlet Mohr .................................................................................... 0
(VOL) Undecided ............................................................................ 26
Gender Becker Fedorchak Mund Balazs Mohr Undecided
Men 30 29 14 5 0 23
Women 28 24 14 4 0 29
Age
18-34 13 13 26 0 0 47
35-49 29 24 18 0 0 28
50-64 29 23 5 4 1 38
65+ 31 30 15 7 0 16
Education
Region
East Cities 24 31 20 8 0 18
West Cities 37 30 12 3 0 18
East Rural 21 19 15 5 0 39
West Rural 31 25 9 3 0 32
Primary Voter
Certain 30 26 14 5 0 25
Very Likely 24 25 14 2 0 35
Q4: And for the Republican Party nomination for North Dakota Governor, if the election was
today for whom would you vote? (Republican Primary Voters Only, n=400, MoE +/- 4.9%pts)
Kelly Armstrong .............................................................................. 56%
Tammy Miller .................................................................................. 18
(VOL) Undecided ............................................................................ 26
Gender Armstrong Miller Undecided

Men 52 19 29
Women 60 16 25
Age
18-34 39 16 45
35-49 60 18 22
50-64 60 21 19
65+ 56 15 30
Education
No College Degree 55 16 29
College Degree 57 18 25
Region
East Cities 56 26 18
West Cities 57 12 31
East Rural 52 18 30
Central Rural 52 16 32
West Rural 62 13 24
Primary Voter
Certain 57 17 26
Very Likely 51 21 28
Q5: In the election for North Dakota Superintendent of Public Instruction, if the election was
today for whom would you vote? (All Primary Voters Only, n=550, MoE +/- 4.2%pts)
Kirsten Baesler ................................................................................. 38%
Jason Heitkamp ................................................................................ 12
Jim Bartlett ....................................................................................... 8
Darko Draganic ................................................................................ 1
(VOL) Undecided ............................................................................ 42
Gender Baesler Heitkamp Bartlett Draganic Undecided
Men 39 8 10 0 43
Women 37 14 6 2 40
Age
18-34 48 7 0 0 44
35-49 39 4 8 6 44
50-64 30 10 10 0 50
65+ 40 16 8 0 36
Education
No College Degree 29 13 11 1 46
College Degree 45 11 6 1 38
Region
East Cities 43 10 4 1 42
West Cities 38 7 12 2 42
East Rural 37 19 8 0 36
Central Rural 35 15 10 2 37
West Rural 32 10 6 2 50
Primary Ballot
Republican Party 40 9 10 0 41
Democratic Party 31 23 2 3 41
Unsure 35 12 4 4 44
Primary Voter
Certain 39 11 8 1 40
Very Likely 29 13 6 1 51

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NORTH DAKOTA

2024 PRIMARY SURVEY

MAY 6-8, 2024

a: Joe Biden 29% 70 1 0

Gender Republican Democratic Other Unsure

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very

Gender Becker Fedorchak Mund Balazs Mohr Undecided

Gender Armstrong Miller Undecided

Gender Baesler Heitkamp Bartlett Draganic Undecided

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