Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing (2022) 68:2551–2570

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12190-021-01627-5

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Periodicity and stationary distribution of two novel

stochastic epidemic models with infectivity in the latent
period and household quarantine

Dongchen Shangguan1 · Zhijun Liu1 · Lianwen Wang1 · Ronghua Tan1

Received: 26 May 2021 / Revised: 1 September 2021 / Accepted: 1 September 2021 /

Published online: 15 September 2021
© Korean Society for Informatics and Computational Applied Mathematics 2021

Abstract
Two types of stochastic epidemic models are formulated, in which both infectivity
in the latent period and household quarantine on the susceptible are incorporated.
With the help of Lyapunov functions and Has’minskii’s theory, we derive that, for
the nonautonomous periodic version with white noises, it owns a positive periodic
solution. For the other version with white and telephone noises, we construct stochastic
Lyapunov function with regime switching to present easily verifiable sufficient criteria
for the existence of ergodic stationary distribution. Also, we introduce a series of
numerical simulations to support our analytical findings. At last, a brief discussion of
our theoretical results shows that the stochastic perturbations and household quarantine
measures can significantly affect both periodicity and stationary distribution.

Keywords SEIR epidemic model · Periodicity · Markov chain · Ergodic stationary

distribution

Mathematics Subject Classification 92D30 · 60H10

B Zhijun Liu
zjliu@hbmzu.edu.cn ; zhijun_liu47@hotmail.com
Dongchen Shangguan
shangguanmath@163.com
Lianwen Wang
wanglianwen1987@hotmail.com
Ronghua Tan
ronghua_tan@hotmail.com

1 School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, Hubei, People’s
Republic of China

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1 Introduction

As is known to all, the catastrophic influences of infectious diseases on the development

of the world cannot be ignored, and the struggle between human beings and infec-
tious diseases has never stopped. Since Kermack and McKendrick [1] pioneered the
SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) epidemic compartmental model, various mathe-
matical models have been widely established, and quite a few scholars have achieved
many good results which are useful for the control and prevention of the spread of
the epidemic [2–11]. It is worth noting that many diseases, such as mumps, HIV etc.,
have a latent period, which is the period of time between the exposure to a disease-
causing agent and the onset of disease the agent causes. It is reasonable to consider the
SEIR model, which introduces the latent period by using a compartmental approach.
There are intensive literatures about kinds of SEIR models with the efforts of many
researchers [2,6,9]. Generally speaking, classic SEIR models assume that the latent
individuals are not contagious, and the susceptible individuals may become conta-
gious only through contact with the infective individuals. However, this assumption
is quite different from features of some transmitted diseases (such as SARS [12] and
COVID-19 [13]) with infectivity in the latent period. This fact has been concerned by
some scholars and SEIR models with infectivity in the latent period have also been
considered, see [12,14,15].
The COVID-19, which is a highly contagious and lethal respiratory virus with a
similar incubation time and generation time as SARS coronavirus (see [16]), has spread
throughout almost every nation on our planet to become a pandemic since 2019. The
time between infections and developing the symptoms is within 2–14 days, and the
infected person’s latent period is infectious. To date, COVID-19 has ravaged more
than two hundred countries around the world and has caused enormous economic and
human losses. The worst scenario is that there was no specific treatment or vaccine
available to prevent at the early stages of the outbreak. For this reason, we have to
rely on traditional public health measures to respond to the outbreak, such as isola-
tion, quarantine, social distance and community containment [16–18]. Many of these
were implemented successfully as effective measures during SARS in 2003, provid-
ing impetus to continue such stringent measures for COVID-19. China drew useful
lessons learnt from SARS outbreak almost 20 years ago and issued unprecedented
gigantic interventions to prevent the propagation of COVID-19, including household
quarantine, wearing masks, lockdown and strict constant tracing [19–24]. In a recent
investigation, an SEIR epidemic model of deterministic differential equations
⎧
⎪
⎪ Ṡ(t) =  − β(1 − η1 )S(t)[I (t) + η2 E(t)] − μS(t),
⎨
Ė(t) = β(1 − η1 )S(t)[I (t) + η2 E(t)] − (δ + μ)E(t),
(1.1)
⎪ I˙(t) = δ E(t) − (θ + α + μ)I (t),
⎪
⎩
Ṙ(t) = (θ + η3 α)I (t) − μR(t)

has been used by Jiao et al. [25] to model the spread of the epidemic with infectivity
in the latent period and household quarantine on the susceptible by focusing on the
transmitting features of COVID-19, where  > 0 represents the recruitment rate;
β > 0 is the infective rate from S to E; η1 (0 < η1 < 1) stands for the household

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Periodicity and stationary distribution of two novel… 2553

quarantine rate of the susceptible; η2 (0 < η2 < 1) is the rate at which the exposed
individuals become infectious in the latent period; δ > 0 stands for the transition rate
of becoming infectious after a latent period (δ > η2 (θ + α + μ)); μ > 0 is the natural
death rate; the hospitalized rate of I is given by α > 0; θ > 0 can be regarded as
the rate that I become R; η3 > 0 is the recovery rate of I . The schematic diagram of
model (1.1) is shown in Fig. 1 below.
Consider the absence of R(t) in other equations, Jiao et al. [25] only focused on
the following three-dimensional model
⎧
⎨ Ṡ(t) =  − β(1 − η1 )S(t)[I (t) + η2 E(t)] − μS(t),
Ė(t) = β(1 − η1 )S(t)[I (t) + η2 E(t)] − (δ + μ)E(t), (1.2)
⎩˙
I (t) = δ E(t) − (θ + α + μ)I (t),

and obtained the basic reproduction number R0 = β(1−η 1 )[δ+η2 (θ+α+μ)]

μ(θ+α+μ)(δ+μ) . Further-
more, they proved that model (1.2) admits a globally asymptotically stable disease-free
equilibrium if R0 < 1, while the positive equilibrium of model (1.2) is globally asymp-
totically stable if R0 > 1.
Due to the existence of random phenomena in an ecosystem, epidemic models are
unavoidably subjected to the environmental fluctuations. In fact, temperature changes,
humidity and media coverage inevitably affect the spread of epidemic. To better explain
these phenomena, many researchers have included stochastic perturbations in the pro-
cess of epidemic modelling and achieved numerous good results [26–36]. Keeping in
mind such an idea, Shangguan and Liu et al. [37] recently incorporated white noises
into model (1.2) and assumed that stochastic perturbations on the individuals are pro-
portional to S(t), E(t), I (t), and derived a new stochastic version as follows
⎧
⎨ d S(t) = [ − β(1 − η1 )S(t)(I (t) + η2 E(t)) − μS(t)]dt + σ1 S(t)d B1 (t),
d E(t) = [β(1 − η1 )S(t)(I (t) + η2 E(t)) − (δ + μ)E(t)]dt + σ2 E(t)d B2 (t),
⎩
d I (t) = [δ E(t) − (θ + α + μ)I (t)]dt + σ3 I (t)d B3 (t),
(1.3)

where Bi (t) represent independent standard Brownian motions with Bi (0) = 0, and
σi2 > 0 represent the intensities of noises, i = 1, 2, 3. They investigated the above
model’s stochastic dynamics such as extinction, persistence in the mean and ergodic

Fig. 1 The schematic diagram of the deterministic model (1.1)

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2554 D. Shangguan et al.

stationary distribution (ESD), and compared with model (1.2) and revealed the effect
of white noises on the spread of the disease.
Note that periodicity is also an important factor and a quantity of human infectious
diseases similarly fluctuate over time and often seasonally spread. The birth rate,
death rate, recovery rate and other parameters appear more or less periodicity rather
than keeping constant, and hence it is reasonable to further take periodic variation into
account in the process of investigating the stochastic epidemic model. The existence of
periodic solutions is important for understanding and controlling the transmissibility
of the diseases, and is extensively researched as a key point in many literatures [38–
44]. For instance, Lin et al. [39] researched a stochastic non-autonomous periodic
SIR model and established the threshold of the disease to occur and also verified the
existence of periodic solutions. The existence of periodic solutions for a stochastic
periodic SIS model with general nonlinear incidence proposed by Ramziya et al. [41]
was discussed. Inspired by the arguments above, we focus on the stochastic model
(1.3) and further investigate a corresponding model with periodic variable coefficients,
which yields

⎧
⎨ d S(t) = [(t) − β(t)(1 − η1 )S(t)(I (t) + η2 E(t)) − μ(t)S(t)]dt + σ1 (t)S(t)d B1 (t),
d E(t) = [β(t)(1 − η1 )S(t)(I (t) + η2 E(t)) − (δ(t) + μ(t))E(t)]dt + σ2 (t)E(t)d B2 (t),
⎩
d I (t) = [δ(t)E(t) − (θ(t) + α(t) + μ(t))I (t)]dt + σ3 (t)I (t)d B3 (t),
(1.4)

where the parameters (t), β(t), μ(t), δ(t), θ (t), α(t) and σi (t)(i = 1, 2, 3) involved
with the above model (1.4) are positive continuous T -periodic functions.
Recalling the stochastic model (1.3), we find that white noises are incorporated
into the deterministic model (1.2). Next, based on model (1.3), we take a further
step to investigate the influence of telephone noises which can be described as a
switching between (finite) regimes of environment. The switching is without memory
with exponential distribution waiting times and the waiting time for the next switch
has an exponential distribution [45], which can be modeled by a finite-state Markov
chain. The analysis of stochastic epidemic models with Markov switching has received
considerable attention, see [35,42,44,46,47] and the references therein. Motivated by
this good idea, we suppose that there exist N regimes and a corresponding version is
governed by

⎧
⎨ d S(t) = [(k) − β(k)(1 − η1 )S(t)(I (t) + η2 E(t)) − μ(k)S(t)]dt + σ1 (k)S(t)d B1 (t),
d E(t) = [β(k)(1 − η1 )S(t)(I (t) + η2 E(t)) − (δ(k)) + μ(k))E(t)]dt + σ2 (k)E(t)d B2 (t),
⎩
d I (t) = [δ(k)E(t) − (θ(k)) + α(k)) + μ(k))I (t)]dt + σ3 (k)I (t)d B3 (t).
(1.5)

The switching between these N regimes is given by a Markov chain on the state space
S = {1, 2, . . . , N }. This model evolves to a stochastic model with regime switching as

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Periodicity and stationary distribution of two novel… 2555

follows
⎧
⎪
⎪ d S(t) = {(ξ(t)) − β(ξ(t))(1 − η1 )S(t)[I (t) + η2 E(t)] − μ(ξ(t))S(t)}dt
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ + σ1 (ξ(t))S(t)d B1 (t),
⎨
d E(t) = {β(ξ(t))(1 − η1 )S(t)[I (t) + η2 E(t)] − [δ(ξ(t)) + μ(ξ(t))]E(t)}dt
⎪
⎪ + σ2 (ξ(t))E(t)d B2 (t),
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ d I (t) = {δ(ξ(t))E(t) − [θ (ξ(t)) + α(ξ(t)) + μ(ξ(t))]I (t)}dt
⎩
+ σ3 (ξ(t))I (t)d B3 (t),
(1.6)

where ξ(t) is a right-continuous time Markov chain with values in finite state space
S. We assume that the Brownian motions Bi (·) are dependent of the Markov chain
ξ(·). For each k ∈ S, the parameters (k), β(k), δ(k), θ (k), α(k), μ(k) and σi (k)(i =
1, 2, 3) are positive constants. Model (1.5) is called a subsystem of model (1.6) and
model (1.6) can be regarded as model (1.5) switching from one to another by the law
of the Markov chain for all k ∈ S.
For the convenience of subsequent sections, we list the following preliminaries. In
details, assign R+ = [0, ∞), R3+ = {(x1 , x2 , x3 ) ∈ R3 : xi > 0, i = 1, 2, 3} and
let a complete probability space ( , F, {Ft }t≥0 , P) with a filtration {Ft }t≥0 satisfy
the usual conditions.
t For an integral function ℵ(t) defined for t ∈ R+ , we denote
ℵt = 1t 0 ℵ(s)ds, ℵl = inf t∈R+ ℵ(t) and ℵu = supt∈R+ ℵ(t). For each vector
£ = (£(1), ..., £(N )), we define that £̂ = mink∈S {£(k)} and £̌ =  maxk∈S {£(k)}.
The generator for ξ(t) is defined as = (γi j ) N ×N , where γi j = − Nj=1 γi j , and
γi j ≥ 0 (i = j) is the transition rate from i to j, that is

γi j + o( ), if i = j,
P(ξ(t + ) = j|ξ(t) = i) =
1 + γi j + o( ), if i = j,

where > 0. Assume that ξ(t) is irreducible, which implies that it has a unique
 Nπ = {π1 , π2 , . . . , π N } which can be governed by the equation
stationary distribution
π = 0 subject to h=1 πh = 1 and πh > 0 for any h ∈ S.
As a continuation of our previous work [37], the object of the present paper is
to examine the effect of environmental variability on the dynamics of disease trans-
mission of models (1.4) and (1.6). The rest sections of this work are summarized as
follows. We discuss the existence of a positive periodic solution of model (1.4) in
Sect. 2. Section 3 establishes sharp sufficient criteria for the ESD of model (1.6). In
Sect. 4, several specific numerical examples are presented to substantiate our analytic
results. Lastly, a series of concluding remarks are contained in Sect. 5.

2 Existence of positive periodic solution of (1.4)

The part of this paper, we proceed to discuss the existence of positive periodic solutions
of model (1.4). In what follows, let us first prepare the following definition and two
lemmas.

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Definition 2.1 [49] A stochastic process ζ (t) = ζ (t, ω)(−∞ < t < +∞) is T -period
if for every finite sequence of numbers t1 , t2 , · · · , tn the joint distribution of random
variables ζ (t1 + h), ζ (t2 + h), · · · , ζ (tn + h) is independent of h, where h = kT ,
k = ±1, ±2, · · · .

A periodic stochastic system is given by

d x(t) = h(x(t), t)dt + g(x(t), t)d B(t), x ∈ Rn , (2.1)

where both functions h(t) and g(t) are T -periodic in t.

Lemma 2.1 [49] Suppose that the coefficients involved with (2.1) are T -periodic and
system (2.1) owns a unique global solution. Also, there is a function W (t, x) ∈ C 2 in
R which is T -periodic in t and satisfies
(A1 ) inf |x|>R W (t, x) → +∞ as R → +∞,
(A2 ) L W (t, x) ≤ −1 outside some compact set.
Then system (2.1) has a T -periodic solution.

Lemma 2.2 For any initial value (S(0), E(0), I (0)) ∈ R3+ , there is a unique globally
positive solution (S(t), E(t), I (t)) ∈ R3+ of model (1.4) for t ≥ 0 almost surely.

Proof Define a C 2 -function V : R3+ → R+ as follows

S
V (S, E, I ) = S − q1 − q1 ln + (E − 1 − ln E) + q2 (I − 1 − ln I ),
q1

where

δl + μl q1 β u (1 − η1 )
q1 = δu
, q2 = . (2.2)
β u (1 − η1 )[η2 + ] μl + αl + θ l
μl +αl +θ l

By Itô’s formula, we derive that

d V = L V dt + σ1 (t)(S − q1 )d B1 (t) + σ2 (t)(E − 1)d B2 (t) + q2 σ3 (t)(I − 1)d B3 (t),

where

L V = (t) − β(t)(1 − η1 )S(I + η2 E) − μ(t)S − q1 (t) 1S + q1 β(t)(1 − η1 )I

+q1 β(t)(1 − η1 )η2 E + q1 μ(t) + 21 q1 σ12 (t) + β(t)(1 − η1 )S(I + η2 E)
−(δ(t) + μ(t))E − β(t)(1 − η1 )η2 S + μ(t) + δ(t) + q2 δ(t)E + 21 σ22 (t)
−q2 (α(t) + μ(t) + θ(t))I − q2 δ(t) EI − β(t)(1 − η1 ) SEI
+q2 (α(t) + μ(t) + θ(t)) + 21 q2 σ32 (t)
≤ u + q1 β u (1 − η1 )I + q1 β u (1 − η1 )η2 E + q1 μu + 21 q1 (σ12 )u − (δl + μl )E
+μu + δ u + 21 (σ22 )u + q2 δ u E − q2 (αl + μl + θ l )I + q2 (α u + μu + θ u ) + 21 q2 (σ32 )u
= u + (q1 + 1)μu + δ u + q2 (α u + μu + θ u ) + 21 q1 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u + 21 q2 (σ32 )u
+[q1 β u (1 − η1 ) − q2 (αl + μl + θ l )]I + [q1 β u (1 − η1 )η2 + q2 δ u − (δl + μl )]E.

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Recalling (2.2), we can easily get

q1 β u (1 − η1 ) − q2 (αl + μl + θ l ) = 0, q1 β u (1 − η1 )η2 + q2 δ u − (δl + μl ) = 0.

Then

1 1 1
L V ≤ u + (q1 + 1)μu + δ u + q2 (α u + μu + θ u ) + q1 (σ12 )u + (σ22 )u + q2 (σ32 )u = K,
2 2 2

where K > 0 is a constant. Since the rest part can be proved in the same way as in the
proof of Theorem 2.1 in [48], the details are omitted.

Assign

β(1 − η1 )δT
R= .
μ + 2 σ1 T δ
1 2
+ μ + 21 σ22 T θ + α + μ + 21 σ32 T

Let us now begin to state our principal conclusion on the existence of a positive periodic
solution of model (1.4).

Theorem 2.1 Model (1.4) owns a positive T -periodic solution if R > 1.

Proof Let us consider a C 2 -function W : [0, +∞) × R3+ → R+ with the form

W (S, E, I , t) = M1 (− ln S − a1 ln E − a2 ln I − v I + w(t)) + p+1 (S

1
+ E + I ) p+1
− ln S − ln E,

where

β(1−η1 )δT β(1−η1 )δT

a1 = , a2 = ,
δ+μ+ 21 σ22 2T θ+α+μ+ 21 σ32 T δ+μ+ 21 σ22 T θ+α+μ+ 12 σ32 2T
v= β u (1 − η1 )η2 /δl ,

and w(t) is a T -periodic function with

w (t) = R0 T − R0 (t), (2.3)

where R0 (t) will be provided later. Let p > 0 and M1 > 0 is a sufficiently large
constant satisfying

p < 2μl /((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ), −ϑM1 + f 2 ≤ −2,

where ϑ := μ + 21 σ12 T (R − 1) and f 2 will be supplied later.

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2558 D. Shangguan et al.

We can easily derive that W (S, E, I , t) is T -periodic in t, and

lim W (S, E, I , t) = +∞,

κ→+∞,(S,E,I )∈R3+ \Uκ

where Uκ = (1/κ, κ)×(1/κ, κ)×(1/κ, κ) and the number κ > 1 is sufficiently large,
which implies that the assumption (A1 ) in Lemma 2.1 verified.
Now, we continue to confirm that the assumption (A2 ) in Lemma 2.1. Assign

W (S, E, I , t) = M1 (W1 + w(t)) + W2 + W3 ,

where W1 = − ln S − a1 ln E − a2 ln I − v I , W2 = p+1 (S
1
+ E + I ) p+1 , W3 =
− ln S − ln E.
Making use of Itô’s formula to W1 yields

L W1 = − (t)
S + β(t)(1 − η1 )(I + η2 E) + μ(t) + 2 σ1 (t) − a1 β(t)(1 − η1 ) E
1 2 SI

− a1 β(t)(1 − η1 )η2 S + a1 (μ(t) + δ(t) + 2 σ2 (t)) − a2 δ(t) I

1 2 E

+ a2 (θ (t) + α(t) + μ(t) + 21 σ32 (t)) − vδ(t)E + v(θ (t) + α(t) + μ(t))I
√
≤ − 3 3 a1 a2 (t)β(t)(1 − η1 )δ(t) + a1 (μ(t) + δ(t) + 21 σ22 (t))
+ a2 (θ (t) + α(t) + μ(t) + 21 σ32 (t)) + μ(t) + 21 σ12 (t) + β u (1 − η1 )I
+ v(θ u + α u + μu )I
= R0 (t) + [β u (1 − η1 ) + v(θ u + α u + μu )]I ,
(2.4)

where
√
R0 (t) = −3 3 a1 a2 (t)β(t)(1 − η1 )δ(t) + a1 (μ(t) + δ(t) + 21 σ22 (t))
+a2 (θ (t) + α(t) + μ(t) + 21 σ32 (t)) + 21 σ12 (t) + μ(t).

It follows from (2.3) and (2.4) that

L(W1 + w(t)) ≤ R0 T + [β u (1 − η1 ) + v(θ u + α u + μu )]I

= −μ + 21 σ12 T (R − 1) + [β u (1 − η1 ) + v(θ u + α u + μu )]I
:= −ϑ + [β u (1 − η1 ) + v(θ u + α u + μu )]I .
(2.5)

Applying Itô’s formula to W2 leads to

L W2 = [(t) − μ(t)(S + E + I ) − (θ (t) + α(t))I ](S + E + I ) p

+ 2p [σ12 (t)S 2 + σ22 (t)E 2 + σ32 (t)I 2 ](S + E + I ) p−1
≤ u (S + E + I ) p − μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S + E + I ) p+1
≤ − 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + E p+1 + I p+1 ) + J ,
(2.6)

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where
  
1 p
J= sup − μl − ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S + E + I ) p+1 + u (S + E + I ) p .
(S,E,I )∈R3+ 2 2

Similar to L W2 , we can obtain

L W3 = − (t)
S + β(t)(1 − η1 )I + β(t)(1 − η1 )η2 E − β(t)(1 − η1 ) E
SI

−β(t)(1 − η1 )η2 S + δ(t) + 2μ(t) + 21 σ12 (t) + 21 σ22 (t)

(2.7)
≤ − S + β u (1 − η1 )I + β u (1 − η1 )η2 E − β l (1 − η1 ) SEI + 2μu
l

+δ + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u .
u

By virtue of (2.5)-(2.7), we have

L W ≤ −ϑM1 + {M1 [β u (1 − η1 ) + v(θ u + α u + μu )] + β u (1 − η1 )}I

− 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + E p+1 + I p+1 )
+β u (1 − η1 )η2 E − β l (1 − η1 ) SEI − S + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u
l

+J + 2μu + δ u (2.8)
= −ϑM1 − 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + E p+1 + I p+1 )
+H I + β u (1 − η1 )η2 E − β l (1 − η1 ) SEI − S + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u
l

+J + 2μ + δ ,
u u

where H = M1 [β u (1 − η1 ) + v(θ u + α u + μu )] + β u (1 − η1 ).
Define a bounded closed set with the form
 
1 1 1
U = ε ≤ S ≤ , ε ≤ E ≤ 3, ε ≤ I ≤
3
,
ε ε ε

where the constant ε > 0 is suitably small such that

l
−
+ f 1 ≤ −1, (2.9)
ε
1
−β l (1 − η1 ) + f 1 ≤ −1, (2.10)
ε
−ϑM1 + H ε + f 2 ≤ −1, (2.11)
1 p  1
− μl − ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) p+1 + f 3 ≤ −1, (2.12)
4 2 ε
1 l p  1
− μ − ((σ1 ) ∨ (σ2 ) ∨ (σ3 ) ) 3( p+1) + f 4 ≤ −1,
2 u 2 u 2 u
(2.13)
4 2 ε
1 l p  1
− μ − ((σ1 ) ∨ (σ2 ) ∨ (σ3 ) ) p+1 + f 5 ≤ −1,
2 u 2 u 2 u
(2.14)
4 2 ε

where f 1 , f 2 , f 3 , f 4 , f 5 are positive constants which can be determined in (2.15)-

(2.19), respectively. For convenience, we divide R3+ \ U into six domains with the

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following forms

U1 = {(S, E, I ) ∈ R3+ |0 < S < ε}, U2 = {(S, E, I ) ∈ R3+ |S > ε, I > ε, 0 < E < ε3 },
U3 = {(S, E, I ) ∈ R3+ |0 < I < ε}, U4 = {(S, E, I ) ∈ R3+ |S > 1ε },
U5 = {(S, E, I ) ∈ R3+ |I > 1ε }, U6 = {(S, E, I ) ∈ R3+ |E > ε13 }.

Obviously, R3+ \ U = U1 ∪ U2 ∪ U3 ∪ U4 ∪ U5 ∪ U6 . Next we will prove, by verifying

the above six cases, that L W ≤ −1 on R3+ \ U .
Case 1 If (S, E, I ) ∈ U1 , then one derives, by (2.8) and (2.9), that

L W ≤ − S − 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + E p+1 + I p+1 )

l

+β u (1 − η1 )η2 E + H I + J + 2μu + δ u + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u

≤ − S + f 1 ≤ − ε + f 1 ≤ −1,
l l

where

f 1 = sup(S,E,I )∈R3 − 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + E p+1 + I p+1 )
+ 
+H I + β u (1 − η1 )η2 E + J + 2μu + δ u + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u .
(2.15)

Case 2 If (S, E, I ) ∈ U2 , then we have from (2.8) and (2.11) that

SI 1 l p 
L W ≤ −β l (1 − η1 ) − μ − ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + E p+1 + I p+1 )
E 2 2
+H I + β u (1 − η1 )η2 E + J + 2μu + δ u + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u
≤ −β l (1 − η1 ) SEI + f 1 ≤ −β l (1 − η1 ) 1ε + f 1 ≤ −1.

Case 3 If (S, E, I ) ∈ U3 , then combining (2.8) with (2.12) results in

1 l p 
L W ≤ −ϑ M1 + H I − μ − ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + E p+1 + I p+1 )
2 2
+β u (1 − η1 )η2 E + J + 2μu + δ u + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u
≤ −ϑ M1 + H I + f 2 ≤ −ϑ M1 + H ε + f 2 ≤ −1,

where

f 2 = sup(S,E,I )∈R3 − 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + E p+1 + I p+1 )
+  (2.16)
+β u (1 − η1 )η2 E + J + 2μu + δ u + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u .

Case 4 If (S, E, I ) ∈ U4 , then using (2.8) and (2.12) yields

L W ≤ − 41 μl − 2p (σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) S p+1 − 41 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) S p+1

− 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (E p+1 + I p+1 ) + β u (1 − η1 )η2 E
+H I + J + 2μu + δ u + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u
≤ − 41 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) S p+1 + f 3
≤ − 41 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) ε p+1
1
+ f 3 ≤ −1,

123
Periodicity and stationary distribution of two novel… 2561

where

f 3 = sup(S,E,I )∈R3 − 41 μl − 2p (σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) S p+1 + β u (1 − η1 )η2 E
+
− 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨(σ32 )u ) (E p+1 + I p+1 ) + 2μu + H I
+J + δ u + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u .
(2.17)

Case 5 If (S, E, I ) ∈ U5 , then one can know from (2.8) and (2.13) that

1 l p  1 l p 
LW ≤ − μ − ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) I p+1 − μ − ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) I p+1
4 2 4 2
− 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + E p+1 ) + β u (1 − η1 )η2 E + H I + J
+2μu + δ u + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u
≤ − 41 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) I p+1 + f 4
≤ − 41 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) ε3( p+1)
1
+ f 4 ≤ −1,

where
 
1 l p
f4 = sup − μ − ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) I p+1 + β u (1 − η1 )η2 E
(S,E,I )∈R3+ 4 2
(2.18)
− 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + E p+1 ) + 2μu + δ u + H I
+J + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u .

Case 6 If (S, E, I ) ∈ U6 , then by (2.8) and (2.14) we have

1 l p  1 l p 
LW ≤ − μ − ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) E p+1 − μ − ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) E p+1
4 2 4 2
− 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + I p+1 ) + β u (1 − η1 )η2 E + H I + J
+2μ + δ + 2 (σ1 ) + 2 (σ2 )
u u 1 2 u 1 2 u

≤ − 41 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) E p+1 + f 5

≤ − 41 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) ε p+1
1
+ f 5 ≤ −1,

where

f 5 = sup(S,E,I )∈R3 − 41 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) E p+1 + β u (1 − η1 )η2 E
+
− 21 μl − 2p ((σ12 )u ∨ (σ22 )u ∨ (σ32 )u ) (S p+1 + I p+1 ) + 2μu + δ u + H I (2.19)
+J + 21 (σ12 )u + 21 (σ22 )u .

The above discussions of six cases show that L W ≤ −1, (S, E, I ) ∈ R3+ \ U , which
means that the assumption (A2 ) in Lemma 2.1 also holds. Thus model (1.4) owns a
positive T -periodic solution.

3 Ergodic stationary distribution of (1.6)

Our purpose in this section is to analyze the ESD of model (1.6). We first give some
lemmas which are important for subsequent discussions.

123
 2562 D. Shangguan et al.

Let (X (t), ξ(t)) be the diffusion process governed by


d X (t) = b(X (t), ξ(t))dt + σ (X (t), ξ(t))d B(t),
(2.1)
X (0) = x0 , ξ(0) = ξ,

where b(·, ·) : Rn × S → Rn , σ (·, ·) : Rn × S → Rn×n and D(x, k) =

σ (x, k)σ  (x, k) = (di j (x, k)). For each k ∈ S, we assume that W(·, k) is any twice
continuously differentiable function, and the operator L can be described by

 ∂W(x, k) 1 
n
∂ 2 W(x, k) 
N
LW(x, k) = bi (x, t) + di j (x, k) + γkl W(x, l).
∂ xi 2 ∂ xi ∂ x j
i, j=1 l=1

Lemma 3.1 [49] Assume that the following three assumptions hold
(B1 ) for i = j, γi j > 0, i, j ∈ S,
(B2 ) for each k ∈ S,

ψ|ζ |2 ≤ D(x, k)ζ, ζ  ≤ ψ −1 |ζ |2 , ζ ∈ Rn ,

with some constant ψ ∈ (0, 1] for all x ∈ Rn ,

(B3 ) there exists a nonempty open set D with compact closure, satisfying that, for each
k ∈ S, there is a nonnegative function W(·, k) : D c → R such that W(·, k) is
twice continuously differentiable and that for some α > 0,

LW(x, k) ≤ −α, (x, k) ∈ D c × S,

then system (2.1) is ergodic and positive recurrent. Namely, there exists a unique
stationary distribution π(·, ·) such that for any Broel measurable function h(·, ·) :
Rn × S → R satisfying

N 

|h(x, k)|π(d x, k) < ∞,
k=1 R
n

one has
 N 

 1 t 
P lim h(X (s), ξ(s))ds = |h(x, k)|π(d x, k) = 1.
t→∞ t
k=1 R
0 n

Lemma 3.2 For any initial value (S(0), E(0), I (0), ξ(0)) ∈ R3+ × S, model (1.6) has
a unique globally positive solution (S(t), E(t), I (t), ξ(t)) on t ≥ 0 almost sure.

123
Periodicity and stationary distribution of two novel… 2563

Proof Since the procedure to prove this lemma is very similar to that of Lemma 2.2,
we only give the formulas which are different from those in Lemma 2.2. Assign

S
U (S, E, I ) = (S − b1 − b1 ln ) + (E − 1 − ln E) + b2 (I − 1 − ln I ),
b1

where b1 = (δ̂ + μ̂)/β̌(1 − η1 )[η2 + δ̌/(μ̂ + α̂ + θ̂ )] and b2 = b1 β̌(1 − η1 )/(μ̂ + α̂ + θ̂ ).

Based on the idea of the proof of Lemma 2.2, the remaining proof can be similarly
validated.

Denote

N
k=1 πk (β(k)(1 − η1 )δ)
Rs0 =  N N N .
k=1 πk (μ(k) + 21 σ12 (k)) k=1 πk (δ(k) + μ(k) + 21 σ22 (k)) k=1 πk (θ(k) + α(k) + μ(k) + 21 σ32 (k))

Next, we focus on the existence of a unique ESD of model (1.6).

Theorem 3.1 For any initial value (S(0), E(0), I (0), ξ(0)) ∈ R3+ × S, the solution
(S(t), E(t), I (t), ξ(t)) of model (1.6) owns a unique ESD if Rs0 > 1.

Proof First, the condition γi j > 0 (i = j) is given by Sect. 1, which is the required
assertion of the assumption (B1 ) in Lemma 3.1.
Next, let us verify the assumption (B2 ) in Lemma 3.1. One can derive the following
diffusion matrix of model (1.6)
⎛ ⎞
σ12 (k)S 2 0 0
A = (ai j (S, E, I , k)) = ⎝ 0 σ22 (k)E 2 0 ⎠.
0 0 σ32 (k)I 2

We have


3
ai j (S, E, I , k)ζi ζ j = σ12 (k)S 2 ζ12 + σ22 (k)E 2 ζ22 + σ32 (k)I 2 ζ33 ≥ M||ζ ||2
i, j=1

for any (S, E, I ) ∈ D c × S, ζ = (ζ1 , ζ2 , ζ3 ) ∈ R3 , where

M= min {σ12 (k)S 2 , σ22 (k)E 2 , σ32 (k)I 2 },

(S,E,I )∈D c ×S

D = [, 1/] × [, 1/] × [, 1/] and the constant  > 0 is sufficiently small. Thus,
we can obtain that the assumption (B2 ) in Lemma 3.1 is valid.
At last, we need to prove that the assumption (B3 ) holds. In the same way as in the
above proof of the assumption (A2 ) in Theorem 2.1, hence we only give the formulas
which are different from those in Sect. 2.

123
2564 D. Shangguan et al.

A C 2 -function is constructed as follows

β̌(1 − η1 )η2
W̃ (S, E, I , k) = M2 (− ln S − c1 ln E − c2 ln I − I + λ(k))
δ̂
+ +1
1
(S + E + I )+1 − ln S − ln E,

where

N√
√ k=1 πk
3
β(k)(1 − η1 )δ(k)(k)
3
c1 =    2   N  ,
N
k=1 πk
3
μ(k) + δ(k) + σ
1 2
2 2 (k) k=1 πk
3
θ (k) + α(k) + μ(k) + σ
1 2
2 3 (k)
N √
√ k=1 πk β(k)(1 − η1 )δ(k)(k)
3
3
c2 =      N  2 ,
N
π
k=1 k
3
μ(k) + δ(k) + σ
1 2
2 2 (k) π
k=1 k
3
θ (k) + α(k) + μ(k) + σ
1 2
2 3 (k)

λ(k) will be determined later,  > 0 and M2 > 0 such that

 < 2μ̌/(σ̂12 ∨ σ̂22 ∨ σ̂32 ), −ϑ̃M2 + C̃2 ≤ −2,

N
where ϑ̃ = k=1 πk (μ(k) + 2 σ1 (k))(R̃0
1 2
− 1) and


1 p
C̃2 = sup − [μ̌ − (σ̂12 ∨ σ̂22 ∨ σ̂32 )](S p+1 + E p+1 + I p+1 )
(S,E,I )∈R+
3 2 2

1 1
+β̂(1 − η1 )η2 E + J + 2μ̂ + δ̂ + σ̂12 + σ̂22 .
2 2

Obviously, W̃ (S, E, I , k) admits a minimum value point (S∗ , E ∗ , I∗ , k) in the inte-

rior of R3+ × S. Consider a nonnegative C 2 -function as follows

W(S, E, I , k) = W̃ (S, E, I , k) − W̃ (S∗ , E ∗ , I∗ , k)

= M2 (− ln S − c1 ln E − c2 ln I − 1 β̌(1 − η1 )η2 I + λ(k))
δ̂
+ +1
1
(S + E + I )+1 − ln S − ln E − W̃ (S∗ , E ∗ , I∗ , k)
= M2 (W1 + λ(k)) + W2 + W3 ,

123
Periodicity and stationary distribution of two novel… 2565

where W1 = − ln S−c1 ln E −c2 ln I − β̌(1−η1 )η2 I , W2 = +1 (S+ E + I )

1 +1 , W
3 =
δ̂
− ln S − ln E − W̃ (S∗ , E ∗ , I∗ , k). One derives, by Itô’s formula to W1 , that

LW1 = − (k)
S + β(k)(1 − η1 )I + β(k)(1 − η1 )η2 E + μ + 2 σ1 (k)
1 2

−c1 β(k)(1 − η1 ) E − c1 β(k)(1 − η1 )η2 S + c1 (μ(k) + δ(k) + 21 σ22 (k))

SI

−c2 δ(k) EI + c2 (θ (k) + α(k) + μ(k) + 21 σ32 (k)) − 1 β̌(1 − η1 )η2 δ(k)E
δ̂
+ 1 β̌(1 − η1 )η2 (θ (k) + μ(k) + α(k))I
δ̂ √
≤ −3 3 c1 c2 (k)β(k)(1 − η1 )δ(k) + c1 (μ(k) + δ(k) + 21 σ22 (k))
+c2 (θ (k) + α(k) + μ(k) + 21 σ32 (k)) + μ(k) + 21 σ12 (k)
+β̌(1 − η1 )[1 + 1 η2 (θ̌ + α̌ + μ̌)]I
δ̂
= R̄0 (k) + β̌(1 − η1 )[1 + 1 η2 (θ̌ + α̌ + μ̌)]I ,
δ̂

where
√
R̄0 (k) = −3 3 c1 c2 (k)β(k)(1 − η1 )δ(k) + c1 (μ(k) + δ(k) + 21 σ22 (k))
+c2 (θ (k) + α(k) + μ(k) + 21 σ32 (k)) + μ(k) + 21 σ12 (k).

Now, we define R̄0 = ( R̄0 (1), R̄0 (2), . . . , R̄0 (N )) , and since the generator matrix
, so there exists a solution λ = (λ(1), λ(2), . . . , λ(N )) for the following Poisson
system


N
λ= πh R̄0 (h) − R̄0 .
h=1

This shows that

 
N
γkl λ(l) + R̄0 (k) = πk R̄0 (k),
l∈S k=1

which together with the definitions of c1 and c2 leads to


L(W1 + λ(k)) ≤ R̄0 (k) + β̌(1 − η1 )[1 + 1 η2 (θ̌ + α̌ + μ̌)]I + l∈S γkl λ(l)
N δ̂
= k=1 πk R̄0 (k) + β̌(1 − η1 )[1 + 1 η2 (θ̌ + α̌ + μ̌)]I
δ̂
N σ 2 (k)
= − k=1 πk (μ(k) + 12 )(Rs0 − 1)
+β̌(1 − η1 )[1 + 1 η2 (θ̌ + α̌ + μ̌)]I .
δ̂

The remaining proof is similar to (2.6)-(2.19), and hence is omitted. So model (1.6)
admits a unique ESD.

123
2566 D. Shangguan et al.

4 Numerical simulations

In this sequel, we will focus on illustrating the feasibility of theoretical results on

models (1.4) and (1.6) by two numerical examples. Assume that initial values of
models (1.4) and (1.6) are given by (S(0), E(0), I (0)) = (0.3, 0.4, 0.2).

Example 1 In model (1.4), we fix the parameters (t) = 1 + 0.1 sin π t, μ(t) =
0.2+0.1 sin π t, η1 = 0.2, η2 = 0.2, β(t) = 0.5+0.1 sin π t, θ (t) = 0.15+0.1 sin π t,
δ(t) = 0.5 + 0.1 sin π t, α(t) = 0.25 + 0.1 sin π t, σ1 (t) = σ2 (t) = σ3 (t) = 0.01 +
0.05 sin π t. A calculation shows that R ≈ 2.462713 > 1. So it follows from Theorem
2.1 that model (1.4) has a T -periodic solution, we can clearly see Fig. 2. Moreover
Fig. 2a, b show that S(t), E(t), I (t) fluctuate periodically.

3.5
a 3.5
b
S(t) S(t)
E(t) E(t)
3 3
I(t) I(t)

2.5 2.5

2 2

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5

0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
t t

1.4
c d
stochastic model stochastic model
deterministic model deterministic model
1.2
1.5

1
0.8
I(t)
I(t)

0.5
0.6

0.4 0
1.5
0.2 4
1
3
0.5 2
0 1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 E(t) 0 0 S(t)
S(t)

Fig. 2 a Periodic solution of the stochastic model (1.4) with σ1 (t) = σ2 (t) = σ3 (t) ≡ 0. b Periodic solution
of the stochastic model (1.4). c The phase portraits of S(t) and I (t) of model (1.4) and its corresponding
deterministic model. d The phase portraits of a and b

123
Periodicity and stationary distribution of two novel… 2567

a b
4
S(t)
3.5 E(t)
I(t)

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
t

5000
c 3500
d 3500
e
Frequncy histogram Frequncy histogram Frequncy histogram
4500 The PDF of S(t) The PDF of E(t) The PDF of I(t)
3000 3000
4000
relative frequency density

relative frequency density

relative frequency density

3500 2500 2500

3000
2000 2000
2500
1500 1500
2000

1500 1000 1000

1000
500 500
500

0 0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45
S(t) at time 100 E(t) at time 100 I(t) at time 100

Fig. 3 a Markov chain. b A stationary distribution of the stochastic model (1.6). c–e The probability density
functions (PDF) of S(t), E(t), and I (t) in model (1.6), respectively.

Example 2 In model (1.6), we assume that the Markov chain ξ(t) switches among
these states S = {1, 2} with the generator

−6 6
= ,
4 −4

and the corresponding stationary distribution π = (π1 , π2 ) = (0.4, 0.6). Select

(1) = 0.9, β(1) = 0.4, α(1) = 0.25, μ(1) = 0.2, θ (1) = 0.15, η1 = 0.2,
η2 = 0.2, σ1 (1) = 0.05, σ2 (1) = 0.05, σ3 (1) = 0.05, (2) = 1, β(2) = 0.6,
α(2) = 0.3, μ(2) = 0.3, θ (2) = 0.25, η1 = 0.2, η2 = 0.2, σ1 (2) = 0.1, σ2 (2) = 0.1,
σ3 (2) = 0.1, and then Rs0 = 1.0528286 > 1. So we know from Theorem 3.1 that
model (1.6) owns a unique ESD, this result is illustrated by Fig. 3.

5 Discussions

As a continuation of our previous work [37], based on the stochastic model (1.3) with
infectivity in the latent period and household quarantine, we continue to consider two
types of stochastic models, in which the periodic variation and telephone noise are
respectively considered (see models (1.4) and (1.6)). Two sets of sufficient criteria
are respectively established for the T -periodic solution and the existence of a unique
ESD, see Theorems 2.1 and 3.1. From the above theoretical results, the conclusions
are summarised below.

123
2568 D. Shangguan et al.

• We can conclude that, by Theorem 2.1, model (1.4) has a positive T -periodic
solution if R > 1. Recalling the expression of R, we find that low noise intensities
σi2 (i = 1, 2, 3) and inadequate cooperation from the household quarantine rate η1
can prevent the disease from dying out, in other words, the disease will fluctuate
periodically.
• We have shown that, under Theorem 3.1, model (1.6) owns a unique ESD if
Rs0 > 1. This implies that decreasing the noise intensities σi2 (i = 1, 2, 3) and
the household quarantine rate η1 can lead to a prevalence level of the disease. It
is evident that household quarantine, if it is strictly implemented by the govern-
ment, plays a crucial role in controlling the disease spread, which is consistent
with that of Refs. [25,37]. It’s necessary to point out that China has accomplished
an unprecedented gigantic achievement, which benefits from the whole govern-
ment’s swift and decisive response in a short time, including the detection of cases
to immediate isolation, strict contact tracing, medical observation of all contacts,
as well as household quarantine. Particular emphasis is that both household quar-
antine and the latent individuals tracing have significant influences on the control
of the epidemic.

Finally, we should point out that our present work is only considered the stochastic
dynamics of the three-dimensional models (1.4) and (1.6) with variables S, E and I .
In fact, it will deserve to respectively incorporate the periodic variation and telephone
noise into the variable R in four-dimensional model. Also, some interesting topics
deserve further investigation. We can explore the effects of delay [36] or impulse [30]
on periodic model (1.4), and may study model (1.6) driven by Lévy jumps [29]. We
leave these issues for future consideration.

Acknowledgements We would like to thank the referees and editor for their careful reading of the original
manuscript and their valuable comments and suggestions that greatly improved the presentation of this
work. The work is supported by the NNSFs of China (Nos. 11871201, 12001178).

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