Draft Report Balochistan RE Development Study

Acknowledgements
Rights and Permissions
Attribution
Disclaimer
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. xi
1 Intoduction ............................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Context .......................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Assignment Objective ................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Methodology of study ................................................................................................................... 2
1.3.1 General .................................................................................................................................. 2
1.3.2 Assumptions and inputs ........................................................................................................ 2
1.3.3 Stakeholder Involvement ...................................................................................................... 3
1.3.4 Supply-Demand Model ......................................................................................................... 3
1.3.5 Grid Analysis and Methodology ............................................................................................ 6
1.3.6 Financial assumptions ........................................................................................................... 6
1.3.7 Evaluated Options ................................................................................................................. 7
1.3.8 Economic and social ............................................................................................................ 10
1.4 Status of electricity sector in Balochistan and Pakistan ............................................................. 11
1.4.1 Power Sector Stakeholders in Pakistan and Balochistan .................................................... 11
1.4.2 Power planning cycle .......................................................................................................... 13
1.4.3 Bidding Regime in Pakistan ................................................................................................. 14
1.4.4 Status of electricity sector in Balochistan ........................................................................... 14
1.4.5 Demand situation................................................................................................................ 15
1.4.6 Electricity supply situation .................................................................................................. 17
1.4.7 Electricity Grid ..................................................................................................................... 17
1.5 VRE technology and resource in Balochistan.............................................................................. 21
1.5.1 PV Technology Introduction................................................................................................ 21
1.5.2 Wind Technology Introduction ........................................................................................... 24
1.5.3 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology information. ................................................. 26
2 Electricity demand & Grid analysis ..................................................................................... 30
2.1.1 Regional demand analysis ................................................................................................... 30
2.1.2 Additional Demand – Mining .............................................................................................. 33
2.1.3 Demand reduction through improved efficiency and distributed PV................................. 34
2.1.4 Additional demand in Balochistan ...................................................................................... 35
2.1.5 Pakistan demand ................................................................................................................. 36
2.1.6 Electricity Grid Analysis ....................................................................................................... 38
2.1.7 Export outside Pakistan ...................................................................................................... 40
3 Short term options until 2028 ............................................................................................. 42
3.1 Utility Scale Plants ....................................................................................................................... 42
3.1.1 Identified Opportunities ..................................................................................................... 43
3.1.2 Case study 1 - Utility Scale PV ............................................................................................. 45
3.1.3 Technical parameters.......................................................................................................... 46
3.1.4 Case study 2 - CSP ............................................................................................................... 48
3.1.5 Provincial supply demand balance...................................................................................... 51
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3.1.6 Pakistan supply demand balance ........................................................................................ 52
3.1.7 Grid situation and debottlenecking .................................................................................... 53
3.2 Mining until 2028 ........................................................................................................................ 58
3.2.1 Identified Opportunities ..................................................................................................... 58
3.2.2 Case study 3 - Reko Diq ....................................................................................................... 61
3.3 Impact of distributed PV ............................................................................................................. 65
3.3.1 Situation and obstacles ....................................................................................................... 65
3.3.2 Solution proposal ................................................................................................................ 65
3.3.3 Potential RE supply ............................................................................................................. 67
4 Longer term opportunities until 2033 ................................................................................ 71
4.1 Gigawatt hybrid park .................................................................................................................. 71
4.1.1 Current Situation ................................................................................................................. 71
4.1.2 Case study 4 – Chagai GW Hybrid Park ............................................................................... 73
4.1.3 Potential demand and RE supply ........................................................................................ 77
4.2 Electricity export options ............................................................................................................ 80
4.2.1 Current situation ................................................................................................................. 80
4.2.2 CASA option ........................................................................................................................ 82
4.2.3 IRAN option ......................................................................................................................... 82
4.3 Green Ammonia (Hydrogen) ....................................................................................................... 83
4.3.1 Worldwide green hydrogen markets and potential for Pakistan ....................................... 83
4.3.2 Green ammonia plant for Balochistan ................................................................................ 85
4.3.3 Energy supply for green ammonia production ................................................................... 86
4.3.4 Sample green ammonia plant sizing and costing................................................................ 87
4.3.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 92
5 Financial and economical evaluation .................................................................................. 93
5.1 Financial evaluation .................................................................................................................... 93
5.1.1 Utility scale .......................................................................................................................... 93
5.1.2 Mining ................................................................................................................................. 95
5.1.3 Distributed PV ..................................................................................................................... 96
5.1.4 GW Park .............................................................................................................................. 97
5.1.5 Export .................................................................................................................................. 98
5.1.6 Hydrogen ............................................................................................................................. 98
5.2 Finance ........................................................................................................................................ 98
5.3 Economic evaluation ................................................................................................................. 100
6 Conclusion and Recommended actions ............................................................................ 107
6.1 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 107
6.2 Recommended actions ............................................................................................................. 108
6.2.1 Utility scale ........................................................................................................................ 108
6.2.2 Mining ............................................................................................................................... 109
6.2.3 DPV .................................................................................................................................... 110
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6.2.4 GW opportunity ................................................................................................................ 111
6.2.5 Export ................................................................................................................................ 112
6.2.6 Green Hydrogen / Ammonia ............................................................................................. 112
7 References ........................................................................................................................ 113
ANNEX A: Case Studies - Utility Scale Opportunities ......................................................................... 116
ANNEX B: Case study for Mining ....................................................................................................... 117
ANNEX C: Case study GW park .......................................................................................................... 118
ANNEX D: Distributed Generation ..................................................................................................... 119
ANNEX E: CSP technology.................................................................................................................. 120
E.1 CSP technology cost .................................................................................................................. 120
E.2 Site selection ............................................................................................................................. 122
E.3 Environmental impact of CSP.................................................................................................... 123
ANNEX F: Socio – Economic Impact .................................................................................................. 125
F.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................... 125
F.2 Impact on job creation .............................................................................................................. 126
F.3 Impact of increased employment on GDP ................................................................................ 127
ANNEX G: SHydrogen Model ............................................................................................................. 130
ANNEX H: Financial and Economic Model ......................................................................................... 131
H.1 Project opportunity evaluation model...................................................................................... 131
H.2 Financial Assumptions............................................................................................................... 131
H.3 Capex and Opex Assumptions................................................................................................... 132
H.4 Economic assumptions ............................................................................................................. 134
H.5 Mining Statistics ........................................................................................................................ 136
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List of Figures
Figure 1: Pakistan load and production profile by technology ..................................................................... 4
Figure 2: Divisions of Balochistan ................................................................................................................. 4
Figure 3: Demand Pakistan IGCEP 2022 for 2028 and simulated VRE production Balochistan.................... 5
Figure 4: Utility scale opportunities .............................................................................................................. 7
Figure 5: Mining locations............................................................................................................................. 8
Figure 6: Gigawatt opportunities .................................................................................................................. 9
Figure 7: Organogram of Pakistan's Power Sector (basic) .......................................................................... 11
Figure 8: Planning cycle leading to procurement. ...................................................................................... 13
Figure 9: Balochistan GDP and electricity consumption ............................................................................. 15
Figure 10: Electricity supply and profitability by customer group .............................................................. 16
Figure 11: Balochistan demand split and growth expectation, low forecast ............................................. 16
Figure 12: NTDC Network ........................................................................................................................... 19
Figure 13: Conceptual PV electricity generation ........................................................................................ 21
Figure 14: Attractivity of Solar PV in regions of Pakistan ........................................................................... 23
Figure 15: Schematic diagram of a grid-tied wind energy system .............................................................. 24
Figure 16: Attractivity of Wind in regions of Pakistan ................................................................................ 25
Figure 17: Schematic view of a parabolic trough CSP plant. ...................................................................... 27
Figure 18: Schematic view of a tower CSP system...................................................................................... 28
Figure 19: Attractivity of CSP in regions of Pakistan ................................................................................... 29
Figure 20: Demand modelling, October Quetta example ........................................................................... 30
Figure 21: Demand modelling, Quetta 2028............................................................................................... 31
Figure 22: Demand modelling, Balochistan by customer segment 2028 ................................................... 31
Figure 23: Demand modelling, Balochistan 2028 low forecast, Divisions .................................................. 32
Figure 24: Demand modelling, Balochistan 2033, Divisions ....................................................................... 32
Figure 25: Demand modelling, Balochistan 2033, Divisions, low forecast ................................................. 33
Figure 26: Demand modelling, Rakshan 2028 ............................................................................................ 34
Figure 27: Gross demand of agriculture tube wells in current conditions ................................................. 35
Figure 28: Gross demand of agriculture tube wells in with DPV supply ..................................................... 35
Figure 29: IGCEP 2022 capacity development ............................................................................................ 36
Figure 30: Optimal VRE capacity other studies ........................................................................................... 37
Figure 31: Low demand forecast 2028 in hourly resolution ....................................................................... 37
Figure 32: 2028 Grid model visualization including Export Capacities from Balochistan to Pakistan ........ 40
Figure 33: 2033 demand profile including CASA export in winter.............................................................. 41
Figure 34: Identified utility scale VRE sites. ................................................................................................ 42
Figure 35: Image of the Kuchlak area in Balochistan, Pakistan. ................................................................. 45
Figure 36: Exemplary output of proposed sizing vs historic sizing ............................................................. 47
Figure 37: Seasonal Profile: average simulated day in a month ................................................................ 47
Figure 38: Supply demand balance Quetta 2028........................................................................................ 51
Figure 39: Supply (low-) demand balance Balochistan 2028 ...................................................................... 52
Figure 40: Impact of Balochistan export to Pakistan 2028, expected demand .......................................... 52
Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] v

Figure 41: Impact of Balochistan export to Pakistan 2028, low demand ................................................... 53
Figure 42: 2028 Export grid capacity based on transmission line lengths. ................................................. 55
Figure 43: Total QESCO export volume over time at interconnection lines ............................................... 56
Figure 44: Uch I & II production simulation ................................................................................................ 57
Figure 45: Uch I & II gas field lifetime projection ....................................................................................... 57
Figure 46: Mining areas and PV resource ................................................................................................... 59
Figure 47: Layout of proposed wind-PV plant indicated by a dashed rectangle. ....................................... 62
Figure 48: Annual production profile of RE sources at Reko Diq site ......................................................... 63
Figure 49: Loss and voltage simulation of Sira Qila feeder without and with DPV .................................... 66
Figure 50: DPV supply and agriculture tube well demand in 2 example months ....................................... 68
Figure 51: Balochistan Pakistan interconnection volume – low demand – 1.3 GWp DPV ......................... 69
Figure 52: Uch Pakistan interconnection volume – 1.3 GWp DPV impact on Uch I&II .............................. 69
Figure 53: Uch Pakistan interconnection volume – 1.3 GWp DPV – 100% transmission capacity ............. 70
Figure 54: Pakistan supply demand balance 2028 including DPV .............................................................. 70
Figure 55: Locations of proposed GW parks – dominated by wind ............................................................ 72
Figure 56: Key data for GW park development over time .......................................................................... 74
Figure 57: Layout of proposed Hybrid RE Park ........................................................................................... 74
Figure 58: Hourly supply simulation during the year for 7 GW case .......................................................... 76
Figure 59: Balochistan RE supply including GW Park in 2028 low demand forecast. ................................. 77
Figure 60: Balochistan RE supply including GW Park in 2033 low demand forecast .................................. 78
Figure 61: Balochistan RE supply including GW Park in April 2033 low demand forecast ......................... 78
Figure 62: Balochistan RE supply including GW Park in 2033 expected demand forecast......................... 79
Figure 63: Balochistan RE supply including GW Park in 2033 low demand forecast .................................. 80
Figure 64: [Interconnection network envisaged for Balochistan] .............................................................. 81
Figure 65: Electrolyser projects under development worldwide. .............................................................. 83
Figure 66: Hydrogen production cost from PV and Wind hybrids .............................................................. 84
Figure 67: Estimated cost break-down for import of green hydrogen from different countries ............... 85
Figure 68: Proposed connection from Chagai VRE park to green ammonia plant in Gwadar .................... 87
Figure 69: Approximate capital cost breakdown for a 500 kTPA green ammonia plant ............................ 91
Figure 70: Approximate levelized cost breakdown for a 500 kTPA green ammonia plant ........................ 92
Figure 71: PV cost advantage Balochistan .................................................................................................. 94
Figure 72: Wind cost advantage Balochistan .............................................................................................. 95
Figure 73: Funding and usage analysis of agriculture feeders in Balochistan ............................................ 96
Figure 74: Direct job creation by 2033 by region ..................................................................................... 100
Figure 75: Total jobs and compensation by scenario - cumulative .......................................................... 101
Figure 76: Economic impact on local industry by scenario - cumulative .................................................. 101
Figure 77: Economic impact on Province by scenario - cumulative ......................................................... 102
Figure 78: VRE capacity development by scenario - cumulative .............................................................. 104
Figure 79: Electricity balance of province by scenario - cumulative......................................................... 104
Figure 80: Pakistan view of province by scenario - cumulative ................................................................ 105
Figure 81: Lender’s view of province by scenario - cumulative ................................................................ 105
Figure 82: World view of GHG emissions reduction by scenario .............................................................. 106
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Figure 83: Development of cost levels for different RE technologies ...................................................... 121
Figure 84: DNI in Balochistan .................................................................................................................... 123
Figure 85: Household consumption in Pakistan ....................................................................................... 128
Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] vii

List of Tables
Table 1: Advantages and challenges for PV plants ..................................................................................... 23
Table 2: Advantages and challenges for wind energy ................................................................................ 25
Table 3: Comparison of trough and tower technologies ............................................................................ 29
Table 4: Peak Load Calculation for Mining in Balochistan .......................................................................... 33
Table 5: Transmission Line MW Export Capacities from Balochistan to Pakistan ...................................... 39
Table 6: Proposed PV sites by VRE Locational Study in Balochistan ........................................................... 43
Table 7: Identified VRE sites for existing grid ............................................................................................. 44
Table 8: Basic site attributes ....................................................................................................................... 46
Table 9: Grid utilization factor and annual output ..................................................................................... 46
Table 10: Case summary and economic results .......................................................................................... 48
Table 11: CSP sample plant parameter overview ....................................................................................... 49
Table 12: Identified VRE sites for existing grid ........................................................................................... 54
Table 13: Case summary and economic results .......................................................................................... 64
Table 14: Case summary and economic results and expected NPV at 12.5% DCF ..................................... 75
Table 15: Indicative timeline for the hybrid RE project development at Chagai, Balochistan, Pakistan . .. 76
Table 16: Salient Features of a sample green hydrogen plant ................................................................... 88
Table 17: Approximate capital cost breakdown for a 500 kTPA green ammonia plant ............................. 90
Table 18: Approximate levelized cost breakdown for a 500 kTPA green ammonia plant .......................... 91
Table 19: Approximated costs breakup ...................................................................................................... 93
Table 20: Financial snapshot of GW Park opportunity ............................................................................... 97
Table 21: Comparison GW HPP and VRE .................................................................................................... 97
Table 22: Economic impact of options including distributed generation ................................................. 107
Table 23: Renewable Energy Employment Factors .................................................................................. 126
Table 24: Assumptions on the estimation of GDP impact by new jobs .................................................... 129
Table 25 Inputs for HySupply .................................................................................................................... 130
Table 26 Outputs of HySupply .................................................................................................................. 130
Table 27: Category cost assumptions for PV ............................................................................................ 132
Table 28: System size CAPEX assumptions for PV .................................................................................... 132
Table 29: Category cost assumptions for Wind ........................................................................................ 132
Table 30: System size CAPEX assumptions for Wind ................................................................................ 133
Table 31: Economic Assumptions summary ............................................................................................. 134
Table 32: Economic Analysis definitions ................................................................................................... 134
Table 33: Production Figures of Minerals in Balochistan from Jan 2022 to June 2022 (in metric ton). ... 136
Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] viii

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
A Annum
AC Alternating Current
AM Air Mass
AEDB Alternative Energy Development Board
BESS Battery Energy Storage System
Bn Billion
BPC Bulk Power Consumer
CAPEX Capital Expenditure
CF Capacity Factor
°C Celsius
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
COD Commercial Operation Date
CSP Concentrated Solar Plant
Cts United States Dollar cents
EPA Energy Purchase Agreement
EPC Engineering, Procurement, Construction
DC Direct Current
DCR Discount Rate
DPV Distributed (Photovoltaic) Solar
g Grams
GDA Gwadar Development Authority
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse gas
GVA Gross Value Added
HFO Heavy Fuel Oil
HPP Hydroelectric Power Plant
HV High Voltage
IA Implementation Agreement
IPP Independent Power Producer
IGCEP Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan
IRZ Interconnection Ready Zone
km Kilometer
kV Kilovolt
kWh Kilowatt-hour
m Million or meter
MoE Ministry of Energy (Power Division)
MTPA Million Tons Per Annum
MUSD Million USD
MV Medium Voltage
MW Megawatt
Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] ix

NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority
NPV Net Present Value
NTDC National Transmission and Despatch Company
OPEX Operational Expenditure
PV Photovoltaic
QESCO Quetta Electricity Supply Company
RE Renewable Energy
SIL Surge Impedance Loading
STC Standard Testing Conditions
T Tons
TIP Transmission Investment Plan
TSEP Transmission System Enhancement Plan
USD or $ United States Dollar
W Watts
WTG(s) Wind Turbine Generator(s)
Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] x

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
[To be drafted by WB team following delivery of draft final report]
Balochistan has some 15 gigawatt potential wind and solar power generation capacity at very competitive
cost. Pakistan would benefit from realizing this potential equally as from hydropower development with
a lower availability risk. For this reason it would be of importance for the countries elite of supporting and
paying an equal level of attention to these resources.
Balochistan lags behind other provinces of Pakistan in terms of economic development and available
power generation capacity but has the highest untapped potential for solar and wind resources.
There is already grid capacity for some 5 gigawatt solar to be connected with the existing grid at lowest
cost of all Pakistan. Some 1-2 gigawatt of distributed solar can reduce the very high line losses and improve
the power quality in the distribution systems.
Up to 9 gigawatt of solar and wind can be developed in stages as a large hybrid park with a higher capacity
factor than comparable hydropower projects at comparable cost. Developing such opportunities would
reduce the dependency of the country from the Indus water availability and develop Balochistan
economically at the same time.
It is expected that the realization of these opportunities will raise Balochistan GDP by some 3 billion USD
per year, a 30% increase from todays situation. More that 25,000 permanent jobs would be generated
with a healthy industrial basis growing.
Especially the mining industry would be benefitting from a better an cheaper electricity supply. Alone the
the two largest mining ventures, Saindak and Recko Diq, could reduce their cost of electricity by 50% with
some 500 megawatt of solar and wind; and at the same time develop the region of Chagai. This initial
development could be built out in stage to a multi gigawatt park development.
Withe renewable energy in abundance some can be exported to central Asia through the CASA line where
countries have an electricity deficit in winter. Another option to use the low cost green electricity would
be to attract investment into green hydrogen production to be exported from Gwardar. This will further
strengthen the local industry and benefit Balochistan development as Pakistans.
To unlock this potential the provincial government would need to allocate land and enter into service
agreements with potential developers for the identified opportunities. The federal should positive
encourage the opportunities identified in this studies in the rolling planning activities for the national
electricity supply. In addition some precisely identifies opportunities have been annex on a pre-feasibility
level. A joint task group could evaluate and further those developments. These are a) renewable energy
for Reco Diq, b) several locations for low cost solar PV at the existing grid, c) a distributed generation
strategy, d) the development of a growing gigawatt hybrid park and e) the attraction of green hydrogen
or green ammonia production for export.
Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] xi

1 INTODUCTION
1.1 Context
The World Bank (WB) is supporting Pakistan’s energy sector through a multi-year Programmatic Advisory
Services and Analytics (PASA) activity titled “Pakistan Sustainable Energy Program”, which complements
and informs WB policy advice to government and World Bank’s extensive energy sector lending portfolio.
The WB has already published three major studies that have helped inform the Alternative & Renewable
Energy Policy 2019 (AEDB, 2019), the most recent version of the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion
Plan (NEPRA, 2022) and federal government policy on renewable energy more broadly.
The three published studies are:

i) Variable Renewable Energy Integration & Planning Study (Nov 2020);1
ii) Variable Renewable Energy Locational Study (Feb 2021);2
iii) Variable Renewable Energy Competitive Bidding Study (May 2022).3
Since early 2022, the WB energy team has been discussing future priorities with the Alternative Energy
Development Board (AEDB) and has held several parallel discussions since early 2021 with the Energy
Department of Government of Balochistan (Balochistan Energy Department, or BED) to discuss their
priorities. There is strong consensus that utility-scale renewable energy development in Balochistan must
be strategically pursued, and better recognition that this will require both federal and provincial
engagement, coordinated and led by AEDB.
1
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34586
2
3
Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 1

1.2 Assignment Objective
The objective of the assignment is to generate interest in, and political commitment to, the strategic
development of utility-scale solar and wind power in Balochistan to help meet Pakistan’s ambitious
renewable energy targets for the power sector and support the broader transition that is needed to
achieve “affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”. The assignment will support federal
and provincial policy development, investment planning, and project concept preparation.
1.3 Methodology of study

1.3.1 General
This study is in continuation of previous studies conducted by WB and crystalizes the previous results in
greater depth using latest data and information. Different VRE options were developed and evaluated in
a Balochistan Supply-Demand analysis for 2028 and 2033 for short term and medium-term development.
Potential roadblocks and stimulants have been analyzed and recommendations have been framed.
This study incorporates the views of various stakeholders including farmers, provincial government,
federal government, potential developers, financial institutions, electricity companies, and
environmentalists.
1.3.2 Assumptions and inputs
The input data has been extracted from the following studies:
• VRE location study (World Bank, 2021), which analyzed the utility scale VRE potential for Pakistan
on existing grid infrastructure and beyond.
• QESCO Market forecast (QESCO, 2021), which gives the expected demand inside Balochistan;
• NEPRA State of the industry report (NEPRA, 2022), which give background information on existing
powerplants and distribution companies, cost of power, line losses etc.
• Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2022 (IGCEP 2022) (NEPRA, 2022) which is the
result of NTDCs cost optimization plan for electricity generation for Pakistan from 2022 to 2031
• Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP)
• Renewable Energy Jobs and Sector Skills Mapping for Pakistan (World Bank, 2022)
• NTDC Feasibility Study on Solarizing Tube wells (NESPAK, 8p2, 2020), which analysed the
potential, value and cost of distributed solar (DPV) for grid connected Tube wells in Balochistan.
• Barrick Gold plans for Reko Diq (Barrick Gold, 2023).

1.3.3 Stakeholder Involvement
All national and provincial Stakeholders such as AEDB, NTDC, NEPRA, CPPA, Energy Department
Balochistan including Balochistan Energy Company Limited (BECL and QESCO were consulted during the
inception of the study.
During discussions, the main query from the stakeholders was regarding their views on utilization of VRE
resources of Balochistan. The solar and wind potential of Balochistan have already been identified in the
variable locational study. The main concern for NEPRA and CPPA was that as per the policy the least cost
generation plants should be given priority especially if they are below the basket price of generation.
However, for large scale grid reinforcements the cost should be included in the plant cost.
Local stakeholders have already nominated BECL as focal point for implementing RE projects in the
province.
1.3.4 Supply-Demand Model
A Supply-Demand model has been framed to evaluate the lowest-cost option of VRE generation from
Balochistan. This supply-model is based on hourly data to account for variability in VRE generation
portfolio.
The maximum feasible utility scale VRE capacity from Balochistan at any simulated hour was defined as:
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 + 𝐿𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 − 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = 𝑉𝑅𝐸 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
The sources of demand were QESCO load forecast 2022 – 2032 (QESCO, 2021) for Balochistan and the
IGCEP 2022 for Pakistan (NEPRA, 2022). The IGCEP 2022 provides demand data in hourly resolution for
the whole country. In the IGCEP, the hourly resolution is condensed for a typical day per month resulting
in 288 values per annum.
As per the latest grid model available from NTDC, the selected reference year for this study is 2028 for the
short-term options. For longer term analysis, 2033 has been used. The demand data for 2033 has been
extrapolated from the available forecast up to 2032.
The figure below depicts Pakistan’s load profile 2028 in 2884 hourly values and includes VRE demand for
the IGCEP base case in form of Solar and Wind.
4
One typical day per month, i.e. 24 x 12 = 288

Figure 1: Pakistan load and production profile by technology
Datasource: (NEPRA, 2022)
The QESCO load forecast provided monthly and peak consumption data for customer groups in different
districts and regions.
Figure 2: Divisions of Balochistan

The regional demand forecast from QESCO was aggregated for the divisions for Rakshan, Makran, Kalat,
Quetta and the eastern divisions as those are very similar in nature. The available monthly demand was
distributed hourly for a typical demand picture in (rural) Pakistan to correspond with the requisite 288
hourly data points extracted from IGCEP. As most of the demand is coming from agriculture tubewells in
Balochistan, the irrigation demand analysis from Solar Tube well Feasibility Study (NESPAK, 8p2, 2020)
based on 250 sites all over Balochistan was used for modelling. The demands for irrigation being not time
sensitive, it is assumed that the demand peaks around mid-day.5
The potential electricity supply from VRE in this study was simulated for every project opportunity on
8,760 hours basis. To match the energy yield with demand and IGCEP planning methodology the simulated
energy output was condensed to 288 hours by taking hourly averages for a typical day in a month. For the
potential VRE supply, results of the VRE locational study data were reviewed, updated cost assumption
adopted, and new locations added according to the 2028 grid model and available export capacity for the
rest of Pakistan. In the developed model, any electricity which could not be consumed within the province,
would be exported to other provinces of Pakistan. The impact of that electricity export to rest of Pakistan
was vetted with the IGCEP 2022 results.
The same hourly output profile was simulated and aggregated on a divisional level for all potential VRE
plants in Balochistan. This allows realistic simulation of annual energy and maximum hourly production
and captures the portfolio effect of various VRE plants wholistically.
Figure 3: Demand Pakistan IGCEP 2022 for 2028 and simulated VRE production Balochistan
5
Per current practice, the relevant DISCO decides upon the daily demand profile in accordance with the load
shedding pattern.

1.3.5 Grid Analysis and Methodology
The 2028 NTDC grid PSS/E model6 was obtained and used to simulate and verify the maximum capacity
of suggested locations for utility scale plants as well as the cross border capacity for exporting electricity
to Pakistan via simulating Load Flow Analysis on Siemens PSS/E Software.
Based on relevant transmission line length, Surge Impedance Loading (SIL) Limit is used to model the
transmission lines under safe loading conditions. For short length transmission lines, 80% of the thermal
loading limit of relevant transmission line is used to maintain the safe operational limits.
1.3.6 Financial assumptions
All VRE plants are simulated using the same cost assumptions considering economies of scale for larger
plants. The financial model assumes a targeted ROI of 18% for the developer. In the base case the debt
will be provided at 10.4%; 75% of the investment, 8% on USD terms for 80% of the debt and 20% for the
remaining PKR loan. The modelling is in USD assuming a fixed PKR/USD exchange rate of 300 with a 4%
annual inflation. Cost tables and financial assumptions are summarized in ANNEX A: Case Studies - Utility
Scale Opportunities.
6
In 2028 NTDC model latest IGCEP & TSEP has been incorporated by NTDC

1.3.7 Evaluated Options
Until 2028 Utility scale plants on existing grid
The first intervention is proposed to be VRE development of low-cost PV and Wind plants to supply energy
to Balochistan and the rest of the country using existing grid infrastructure. Around 5 GW of short-term
opportunity in 25 plants has been identified and evaluated to be feasible. Details are provided in Chapter
3.1 Utility Scale Plants .
Figure 4: Utility scale opportunities
The major industry in Balochistan is the mining industry which depends on crude oil or diesel available
locally for electricity supply. The study analyzes the shift of mining industry from fossil fuels to RE sources
to meet the energy requirements. The electricity demand can be easily met by a combination of wind and
PV, complemented by a grid connection or battery storage. A flagship project opportunity is the Reko Diq
mine, which has a demand of 150 MW in its first phase by 2028. Details are provided in Chapter 3.2 Mining
until 2028.

Figure 5: Mining locations
Until 2028 Distributed PV
Although it is not the primary focus of this research, incorporating a distributed solar system could serve
as a technical remedy for the significant losses experienced in 11 KV lines. Moreover, its implementation
would lead to a decrease in the local net electricity demand. Consequently, this reduction would facilitate
higher energy exports from utility scale plants to the remainder of Pakistan. Nevertheless, the collective
adoption of distributed solar systems might ultimately face restrictions due to limitations in inter-
provincial line capacity and the overall electricity demand. Details are provided in Chapter 3.3 Impact of
distributed PV.
Until 2033 Gigawatt parks
New transmission lines could be proposed as a long-term intervention. This would allow integration of
one or more GW hybrid parks of Wind and PV with a capacity factor of approximately 60%. Such parks are
likely to have lower cost and risk compared to large hydropower projects. Details are provided in Chapter
4.1 Gigawatt hybrid park.

Figure 6: Gigawatt opportunities
Surplus electricity generated from such GW parks can be exported to central Asia and Iran in the winters
at a 20% margin. Financial details are provided in Chapter 4.2. Electricity export options.
Depending on the amount of surplus energy produced by the parks, it could be transported through
additional line for production of green hydrogen around Gwadar.
Ammonia can also be used locally for fertilizer production due to depleting gas reserves. A feasibility study
needs to be prepared to evaluate this option in detail. Further information is provided in Chapter 4.3
Green Ammonia (Hydrogen)

1.3.8 Economic and social
The economic and social aspects of the proposed VRE interventions have been discussed in detail in
ANNEX F: Socio – Economic Impact
The following aspects have been assessed:
• Impact on job creation

• Impact of increased employment on GDP
• Impact of new RE investments on GDP
• Reduction of GHG emissions
The impact on job creation has been assessed on the adapted World Bank (2022) methodology. The newly
created jobs (direct- indirect) in onshore wind and solar PV (grid scale) in three project phases
(Development & Pre-construction, Construction and Operation & Maintenance) have been estimated.
The increased employment opportunities (permanent) would have an income effect on the GDP resulting
in growth in the economy. In order to measure the income effect on GDP, the multiplier estimated by
Saikh (2015) has been employed. This approach enables the measurement of the effect on both local and
regional GDP, which is determined by the quantity of newly generated employment opportunities and
subsequently estimates the average annual wage.

1.4 Status of electricity sector in Balochistan and Pakistan
1.4.1 Power Sector Stakeholders in Pakistan and Balochistan
The main power sector institutions of Pakistan can be viewed in the following figure.
Figure 7: Organogram of Pakistan's Power Sector (basic)
Source: Adapted from (AEDB, 2006)
National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA)
National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) is an independent regulatory body responsible for
regulating the electricity sector in Pakistan. It is responsible for regulating electricity generation,
transmission, and distribution, setting tariffs, promoting competition, ensuring quality standards, and
protecting the interests of consumers. NEPRA also resolves disputes and issues licenses to market
participants in the power sector and is responsible for ensuring that the electricity sector is operated in a
fair and transparent manner.
Federal Ministry of Energy – Power Division
The Ministry of Energy is bifurcated into two divisions, namely Petroleum Division and Power Division.
The Power Division is responsible for overseeing and implementing policies related to the power sector.
The ministry plays a crucial role in ensuring a reliable and sustainable power supply across Pakistan.

Through its regulatory frameworks and collaborations with stakeholders, the Ministry of Energy, Power
Division strives to drive economic growth and meet the energy needs of the population.
The ministry has a number of departments and agencies that work on various aspects of the energy sector.
These include:
• The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB)

• The Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA)
• The National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC)
• Distribution Companies (DISCOs)
Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB)
AEDB is a government agency focused on promoting and developing renewable energy resources in
Pakistan. It formulates policies, implements renewable energy projects, and facilitates investment in
sectors such as wind, solar, biomass, and hydropower, with the aim of diversifying Pakistan’s energy mix
and reducing dependency on fossil fuels.
Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA)
CPPA is a public company wholly owned by the government of Pakistan and serves as the centralized
entity responsible for procuring electricity from power generation companies. It ensures the equitable
and transparent purchase of electricity from both public and private power producers and manages the
settlement of payments to various stakeholders in the power sector. Since June 2015, CPPA-G has
assumed the business of National Transmission and Dispatch Company (the “NTDC”) pertaining to the
market operations7.
National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC)
NTDC is a public owned company, responsible for operating and managing the national transmission
system in Pakistan. It ensures the reliable transmission and dispatch of electricity from power generation
sources to distribution companies, industrial consumers, and other load centers across the country.
Distribution Companies (DISCOs) – QESCO in Balochistan
DISCOs are the regional electricity distribution companies operating in different areas of Pakistan. There
are multiple DISCOs, such as LESCO, IESCO, MEPCO, etc., responsible for the distribution of electricity to
end consumers within their respective regions. They manage the billing, collection, and distribution
infrastructure, ensuring reliable electricity supply to end-consumers.
7
http://www.cppa.gov.pk/

Energy Department Government of Balochistan
The Energy Department of the Government of Balochistan is the provincial authority responsible for the
energy sector in the province. It formulates policies, plans, and implements projects related to energy
generation, transmission, and distribution within the Balochistan region, with the objective of meeting
the energy needs of the province and promoting sustainable development.
Balochistan Energy Company Limited (BECL)
BECL is a public limited company that was incorporated in 2014. It is a joint venture between the
Government of Balochistan and the private sector. BECL’s main objective is to develop and operate power
generation projects in Balochistan. The company has already commissioned two power plants in the
province, with a total capacity of 100 MW. BECL is also planning to develop several other power projects
in the near future.
1.4.2 Power planning cycle
NTDC annually performs a 10-year Indicative Generation Capacity Enhancement Plan (NEPRA, 2022). The
IGCEP identifies potential VRE opportunities in blocks instead of specific sites except for the already
committed plants. Final solar and wind sites will be selected by AEDB under reverse bidding as shown in
the planning and procurement cycle in the figure below.
Figure 8: Planning cycle leading to procurement.
Source: IGCEP (NEPRA, 2022)

The other major consideration is the transmission system. The site should be included in the TSEP and if
grid reinforcement/expansion is required that should be reflected in the TIP. AEDB is prioritizing the IRZ
(Interconnection Ready Zones) for the procurement process. The site can be auctioned for reverse bidding
based on land availability or substation/grid connection point.
1.4.3 Bidding Regime in Pakistan
A competitive bidding Study was conducted by the World Bank in 2022. The study found that competitive
bidding could take 2 – 4 years from the initiation of bidding to a project achieving COD (World Bank, 2022).
Competitive bidding is an effective way to procure VRE capacity at a competitive price and help ensure
that projects are developed in a timely and efficient manner – in contrast to unsolicited projects that may
have a longer development cycle and may not synchronize with Pakistan’s power planning. As for
technology selection, the decision shall be left to developers and the competitive bidding schemes. For
this study project selection by competitive bidding is assumed.
1.4.4 Status of electricity sector in Balochistan
The electricity consumption per capita in Balochistan is very low and dominated by agriculture use for
water pumping. Long distribution lines and intensive loadshedding cause high line losses. The agriculture
customers are subsidized, and payment culture is at a historical low. This contributes significantly to
Pakistan’s chronic deficit of electricity supply which, in turn, requires a bail out by the government every
few years, commonly referred to as the “circular debt problem” (ADB, 2021). For electricity supply there
are two gas plants Uch I and Uch II with approx. 930 MW capacity (NEPRA, 2022) at the eastern border of
Balochistan. The fuel is natural gas from a local field. In 2021-2022 the plants provided 7,100+ GWh (NTDC,
2023), mostly exported to Punjab. There is a plan for an additional 300 MW imported coal-based plant
close by to Gwadar as part of the CPEC agreements. The development of this load center is not going
according to the anticipated planning. Therefore, the implementation of the 300 MW coal-plant
intervention may take longer than initially expected.
Despite the fact that there is a huge potential at a comparatively low generation cost of VRE in Balochistan,
the development of any utility-scale plant is still to come.

1.4.5 Demand situation
Balochistan comprises around 43.6% of the area of Pakistan but is only populated by 8% of the country’s
population that is more than 20 million inhabitants8. Approximately, 13.4% of Balochistan’s population
live in the metropolitan area of its capital, Quetta.
Quetta Electricity Supply Company (QESCO) administers around 90% of the electricity supply within the
province. (NTDC, 2019) In the southeast district of Lasbela, K-Electric is supplying the remainder from
Karachi. Statistical data used for this study considers actual data of QESCO network and it is assumed that
K-Electric network data would be similar.
The electricity consumption and GDP per capita in Balochistan are the lowest in Pakistan and also very
low on a global level.
The western divisions of Balochistan are even more sparsely populated and least developed, as compared
to other divisions. These areas receive minimal rainfall, and the presence of rivers is limited to the eastern
part of the province. As a result, the primary factor driving the demand for electricity in this area is
irrigation for agricultural purposes. In the eastern division, surface water is available through the Indus
basin, as a result, the electricity consumption for agriculture per capita is less than in other divisions.
Figure 9: Balochistan GDP and electricity consumption
Source: (QESCO, 2021); WB 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/country/pakistan
The local farmers are the largest consumer group with around 75% of total energy demand for irrigation
purposes. The electricity for farmers is distributed through 748 11 kV feeders. Considering the population
8
News reported population of Pakistan, according to the interim data of the seventh digital census;
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2418175/headcount-exceeds-2495m-census-report

is distributed over vast areas, the average distance per feeder comes to 56.88 km, leading to significant
losses during peak hours. In order to manage the load, QESCO implements extended periods of load
shedding, sometimes more than 16 hours a day, which results in an unusually high load when the grid is
available. This approach of severe load shedding has a negative impact, as it condenses the load into
shorter time frames, leading to increased losses as depicted below.
Figure 10: Electricity supply and profitability by customer group
Source: (QESCO, 2021)
While the technical losses could be solved through grid upgrades and DPV, a political solution is especially
needed to address the non-payment culture and resulting financial losses.
The demand forecast peaks in summer months without much change in user segments. The low demand
forecast scenario from QESCO has been used as a base case for this study to take a conservative view.
Figure 11: Balochistan demand split and growth expectation, low forecast
Source: (QESCO, 2021)

1.4.6 Electricity supply situation
A major share of Balochistan’s energy supply depends on “Uch I” and “Uch II” gas combined cycle power
plants with a total capacity of 930 MW. These are dependent on the Sui Gas Field, a gas field located at a
distance of about 650 km from Karachi in Dera Bugti, Balochistan. The gas field is expected to peak in 2025
and decline sharply thereafter. The electricity is mainly exported to other provinces of Pakistan.
Distributed PV is increasingly being adopted by farmers to reduce the burden of insufficient grid electricity
supply. Potential PV and Wind sources have been identified in various locations and have of the lowest
cost across Pakistan. This is attributable to the high solar irradiation (about 20% higher as compared to
other parts of Pakistan) and high wind capacity factor (50% in certain areas9) corridors. The land in the
province is also mostly arid to semi-arid and is not costly. Despite the aforementioned benefits, no utility
scale PV and Wind utility scale plant has been implemented in the province.
1.4.7 Electricity Grid
Pakistan’s Electricity Network consists of Generation, Transmission & Distribution as shown in following
picture:
CPPA-G
LESCO
FESCO
WAPDA Hydel MEPCO
(Generation) GEPCO
PESCO
TESCO Consumers
NTDC
(Transmission) QESCO
HESCO (Industrial,
GENCOS Comercial,
(Generation) SEPCO
(Distribution) Domestic &
Bulk Power)
KE System
IPPs
(Generation,
(Generation)
Trasnmission &
Distribution)
Generation
9
https://globalwindatlas.info/en

As per NEPRA State of Industry Report 2022, installed electric power generation capacity of Pakistan as of
30-06-2022 remained 43,775 MW which includes 40,813 MW in CPPA-G System and 2,962 MW in KE
System. Similarly, the dependable capacity of Pakistan as of 30-06-2022 remained 40,532 MW which
included 37,858 MW in CPPA-G System and 2,674 MW in KE System.
Generation Systems are as following:

I. CPPA-G System
• GENCO’s (Ex WAPDA Generation Companies, Thermal Power Plants)
• IPPS (Independent Power Producers)
• WAPDA Hydel
II. K.Electric System
Transmission
NTDCL (National Transmission and Despatch Company Pvt. Limited) is responsible for single widespread
220kV and 500kV Transmission System of Pakistan (except KE system). Being NGC (National Grid
Company), its responsibility includes to remove the transmission system constraints, integrate
Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP) with Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP)
to implement an integrated expansion plan which is purely based on a least-cost basis. Following picture
depicts the overview of NTDC existing network10:
10
For overview purpose only. Faulted or open 500kV lines may be considered as closed and normal.

Figure 12: NTDC Network
Source: NTDC
The Company (NTDC) is responsible for evacuation of Power from the Hydroelectric Power Plants (mainly
in the North), the Thermal Units of Public (GENCOs) and Private Sectors (IPPs) (mainly in the South) to the
Power Distribution Companies through primary (EHV) Network. Its core functionalities are as under:
I. Transmission Network Operator (TNO)
II. Operation and Maintenance of 500/220kV Network, Planning, Design and Construction of the new
500/220kV System and strengthening/ up gradation of the existing one.
III. System Operator (SO)

IV. Arranging Non-Discriminatory, Non-Preferential Economic Despatch Ensuring Safe, Secure and
Reliable Supply.
V. Wire Business
• Transmission Planning
• Design and Engineering
• Project Development and Execution
• Operation and Maintenance of Transmission Assets
VI. System Operation & Despatch
• Generation Despatch
• Power System Operation and Control
Distribution
After unbundling of WAPDA in 1998, Distribution Network (132kV, 11kV & 400V) was handed over to 10
nos. distribution companies (DISCOS) i.e. in Balochistan it is QESCO Quetta Electric Supply Company,
except KESC which was privatized and named as KE that hold the license of Generation, Transmission &
Distribution for Karachi region. The whole supply chain of electricity is dependent upon the performance
of the DISCOs (Distribution Companies i.e. QESCO) which are also the Supplier of the Last Resort and are
liable to recover the billed amount and meet the targeted T&D losses. During the FY 2021-22, the allowed
T&D losses for the DISCOs were 13.41% whereas actual losses were 17.13%.
Ground Realities of QESCO: The consumer discipline especially in Balochistan, where Law & Order
situation is in a very poor state, is one of the main cause of not attaining KPIs set by NEPRA. The main
financial crunch faced by QESCO is due to the reluctant attitude/ nonpayment culture of Agricultural
Consumer despite of the Agri-subsidy agreement. Wherein, only 4.33% of Agri customers consume more
than 72% of QESCO’s total demand & subsequently approximately 88% of QESCO’s revenue relies over
the recovery from Agri customers.
Power System Planning
Load forecasting is done at DISCOs level based on Power Market Survey. NTDC prepares IGCEP and TSEP
and Model it on PSS/E software based on Load Forecasting Data from DISCOs, Generation Data from PPIB,
AEDB, CPPA-G & etc. In this regard, data has been retrieved from the following documents published by
NTDC and QESCO.
• IGCEP (Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan)
• Medium term load forecast (MTLF) of QESCO

1.5 VRE technology and resource in Balochistan
1.5.1 PV Technology Introduction
Solar photovoltaic is the fastest growing, most universal and one of the cheapest forms of renewable
energy today. Its viability and profitability depend mostly on the available solar irradiation (GHI) in a given
area. Ideal project sites should provide a minimum of 1,200 kWh/m2 per year. Balochistan offers an
impressive range of 2,000 to 2,500 kWh/m2, making it one of the most abundant regions globally in terms
of available resources.
PV is a modular technology, meaning that it can be built both in very small units (e.g. rooftop solar) as
well as large-scale plants. By capitalizing on economies of scale and implementing diligent maintenance
practices, large-scale plants can attain optimal performance levels. When considering the technical setup,
the notable distinction lies between two setups: fixed structures, which are the most common and
straightforward, with modules typically positioned facing south in the northern hemisphere, and one-axis
tracking, where modules track the sun's movement from east to west throughout the day. Tracking has
become cheaper and more standardized over the years and offers a higher yield per module as well as
higher outputs during morning and evening time which makes the power more valuable from a grid
perspective. One-axis tracking was therefore assumed in the analysis of this report.
Figure 13: Conceptual PV electricity generation
Source: Photovoltaic System Source: NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Facility-Scale Solar
Photovoltaic Guidebook , 2016
The important parameters for site selection for PV include the following:

Irradiance: Solar Irradiance is higher in Balochistan compared to the other provinces of Pakistan; within
Balochistan, it is higher towards the north, near Quetta, and in the center, Kalat region.
Temperature: For higher temperatures, the energy production of PV modules decreases. The heat losses
in very hot areas can be as high as 4 to 5%. The relatively hot climate in Balochistan, however, does not
make it less viable for PV power.
Grid Availability: For large solar parks between 50-200 MWp, 132 kV grid is usually sufficient. And ideally
the site should be 15-20 km from the grid substation or the line itself (for loop in loop out configuration).
Sufficient space should be available in the grid to absorb the power produced by the solar plant.
Terrain: Although theoretically solar panels can be installed on any terrain, but, ideally the slope should
not be more than 5 degrees.
Soiling losses and Water Availability: Soiling losses depend on the amount of dust in the area. Hot desert
areas usually have higher soiling losses of 0.5 to 1% compared to non-arid regions. Water availability is
required for cleaning the solar modules, but water usage is not as intensive as CSP technology.

Table 1: Advantages and challenges for PV plants
Advantages Challenges
• Only daytime power
• Excellent resource for PV in almost all of • Fluctuation with weather
Balochistan (higher north of Quetta and • Relatively low-capacity factor (around 20-
in Kalat) 30%) depending on location and
• Very quick in construction (few months) technology
• Least cost technology for electricity
• No GHG emissions
• Good supply correlation with electricity
demand
Figure 14: Attractivity of Solar PV in regions of Pakistan
Source: globalsolaratlas.info

1.5.2 Wind Technology Introduction
Wind power is VRE technology that contributes most to the worldwide power mix today. At the same
time, it is one of the cheapest forms of energy among all technologies. However, this affordability is only
applicable to sites with consistent wind resources, which are more geographically restricted and localized
compared to solar power. Balochistan has the best spots for wind power within Pakistan, located in the
remote areas of Chagai and Panjgur in the West, with average wind speeds of up to 10 m/s at 100m height.
Wind turbines catch the wind's energy with propeller-like blades; the most common design is a tall tower
with three large blades on a horizontal axis. The trend goes to higher and larger wind turbines, achieving
economies of scale. Wind power plants involve more mechanical and civil engineering than solar power
plants, resulting in longer lead and construction times.
Figure 15: Schematic diagram of a grid-tied wind energy system
Source: NREL / researchgate.net
Internationally, an important differentiation is between onshore and offshore wind, i.e. wind turbines
installed on land which are the most common type of wind turbines, mounted on towers that are 60 to
120 meters high, and wind turbines installed in water, usually in shallow coastal waters or in deeper
waters using floating structures. However, for Balochistan, offshore wind can be neglected as all the
important wind corridors are on land.
An interesting option particularly suitable for Balochistan, is the co-location of photovoltaic (PV) and wind
power systems on the same site. This approach offers several advantages: both technologies produce
cost-effective and environmentally friendly electricity, and since wind and solar resources typically have

non-correlated time patterns, their outputs can be effectively combined. As a result, this integration
enables high combined load factors with minimal energy curtailment. This means that the grid
infrastructure used for evacuation of the power can be utilized in a better way, decreasing the grid costs
as well as the requirement for backup power.
Table 2: Advantages and challenges for wind energy

Advantages Challenges
• Excellent resource for wind western • Longer lead and construction time than
Balochistan (Chagai, Panjgur) PV
• High-capacity factors of up to 45% • Fluctuation with weather
• Cheap source of power • Limited to certain locations
• Possible for hybridization with PV
Figure 16: Attractivity of Wind in regions of Pakistan
Source: globalwindatlas.info

1.5.3 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology information.
Unlike the more commonly known PV solar power, which fluctuates with the changing solar irradiation,
CSP comes with cost-effective thermal storage, allowing higher plannability and a constant dispatch of
electricity, but with higher generation cost than PV. This generation cost of CSP depends largely on the
available direct solar irradiation (“DNI”), which is excellent in some areas of Balochistan. The viability of
CSP as a power generation technology versus other options in Pakistan, therefore, is not to be seen in
competition to PV but rather as an additional source of RE power with specific benefits like constant
power output, base load capability, plannability and stabilizing the local grid.
The two main designs used in today’s commercial plants worldwide are parabolic trough and centralized
tower. Both have been successfully proposed and employed by developers in auctions worldwide, with
towers recently becoming more popular due to their even better storage.
Parabolic trough (“PT”)
The parabolic trough design was the first CSP setup that was built in commercial power plants and is
therefore, one with the longest track record and highest amount of accumulated operational experience
to date. Solar thermal power is collected along long pipes by means of a heat transfer fluid and converted
to electricity in a steam turbine. Throughout the day, the mirrors in CSP systems follow the movement of
the sun, directing its beams onto the receiver line through one-axis tracking. Storage is a crucial
component in the majority of CSP plants under construction, as it enables a consistent power output. This
stability in power generation serves as the primary advantage of CSP over photovoltaic (PV) or wind
technologies. The storage is implemented as thermal storage with a system of a “hot” and a “cold” salt
tank, both containing liquid salt for e.g., about 400 and 300°C respectively. The power is generated in the
power block which contains the steam turbine and all required auxiliaries; similar to other thermal power
technologies although optimized for the lower temperature levels of the CSP plant. As larger turbines and
power blocks are both more efficient and of lower relative cost at the same time, there is a higher
economies-of-scale for CSP compared to PV or wind power parks.

Figure 17: Schematic view of a parabolic trough CSP plant.
Source: (World Bank, IRENA, CIF, 2021)
Central tower (“CT")
In the tower design, slightly curved mirrors (called “heliostats”) are placed on individual support structures
on the ground around a central tower. In the two-axis tracking system, all mirrors are continuously
adjusting their positions to follow the sun's movement. This precise tracking enables the projection of
concentrated solar beams onto a central receiver located at the top of the tower, where heat is collected.
In many designs, molten salt is utilized as a direct medium to capture and store the heat. This approach
eliminates the need for additional temperature exchange between the heat transfer fluid and the storage
medium.

Figure 18: Schematic view of a tower CSP system11.
Source: (World Bank, IRENA, CIF, 2021)
Conclusion
For Balochistan, both trough and tower designs could be utilized; the following table shows pros and cons
of both options. Most of the numbers and features (like costs, area requirements) which are estimated in
the case study section on CSP (Chapter 3.1.4) are applicable for both designs.
11
Molten salts are shown in green and serve as heat transfer fluid and storage medium. Water/steam is shown in
blue. “G” stands for generator.

Table 3: Comparison of trough and tower technologies
Parabolic trough Central tower
• Technology with the longest track • Higher temperatures in receiver and
Record so far, sometimes preferred by storage, leading to higher efficiencies.
investors. • Energy production across the year is more
• Components and design more homogeneous.
standardized than for tower • Can be built on land with a slight inclination
• Modular design of solar field; less risk
of complete destruction (e.g. through
solidifying of salt for tower plants)
Common features of all CSP technologies
• PRO: Storability, constant dispatch, high-capacity factor, grid services
• CON: Higher costs than PV and wind, limited to high-DNI locations
Figure 19: Attractivity of CSP in regions of Pakistan
Source: globalsolaratlas.info

2 ELECTRICITY DEMAND & GRID ANALYSIS
The optimal total amount of PV and wind plants that can be integrated into the grid is driven by demand
at the time of VRE production, cost competitiveness of VRE supplied electricity “merit order” and grid
constraints or cost of eliminating grid bottlenecks and stabilization. The demand analysis has been done
for the 2028 planned grid for short-term opportunities and 2033 for long-term opportunities.
2.1.1 Regional demand analysis
The monthly demand has been provided by QESCO (QESCO, 2021) for the year 2028 and 2032. Based on
the provided data, the consultant has derived demand till year 2033. The consultant modeled an hourly
load forecast based on QESCOs given parameters of regional, monthly and peak loads in order to
rationalize the demand with VRE supply. The demand profile for agricultural users was taken from a
detailed demand analysis based on 250 agriculture sites and their irrigation requirements based on
cropping pattern (NESPAK, 8p2, 2020); the underlying assumption was always that by providing
incentives, the demand for irrigation can be shifted to daytime hours, aligning it with the solar generation
profile.
The following graphs show the results of the hourly demand for division Quetta by customer in October
2028 and 2033. For sensitivities, a low demand forecast was also considered.
Figure 20: Demand modelling, October Quetta example
The demand analysis for the entire year is shown in the following figure. In Quetta division, energy
demand is high due to irrigation requirements during the daytime, consequently, the demand is lower
during the night. Interestingly, there is not a significant increase in summer load for air conditioning as in
Punjab or Sindh provinces. This is probably caused by less income and less urban and industrial power
users in comparison as well as lower summers temperature in densely populated areas.

Figure 21: Demand modelling, Quetta 2028
The other divisions portray a similar picture but with a different level based on the division’s population
and farming requirements. The figure below shows the demand of all divisions for 2028 by different
consumer segments.
Figure 22: Demand modelling, Balochistan by customer segment 2028
The magnitude of each division is shown below in Figure 23. Quetta has the highest demand, Rakhshan
and Makran lack behind based on their low population density. All the divisions share a similar profile.

Figure 23: Demand modelling, Balochistan 2028 low forecast, Divisions
For 2033, the expected demand profile remains unchanged except the growth magnitude which increases
by 57%. This is also valid for Gwadar which is lacking behind its development plan.12
Figure 24: Demand modelling, Balochistan 2033, Divisions
The low demand forecast for 2033 is 45% lower that the expected demand, which is a significant variation
and has been used for risk analysis.
12
“The load forecast of QESCO for the base year 2020-21 compared with load demand of Gwadar Development
Authority (GDA) based on study conducted in 2016, in which they projected that Gwadar load as 500 MW approx. in
2021 but its actual load demand is about 20-30 MW, as already forecasted by QESCO. A series of meetings /
correspondences have been carried out under the supervision of NTDC to ascertain realistic future demand of
Gwadar & Makran Areas of Baluchistan.” (QESCO, 2021) page 15.

Figure 25: Demand modelling, Balochistan 2033, Divisions, low forecast
2.1.2 Additional Demand – Mining
The major mining activities are located in Rakshan division and Chagai area. The existing major copper
and gold mine of Saindak is using its own HFO based power generating units of 50 MW. 13 MW is
consumed by other mining operations leading to cumulative 93 MW load for existing mining operation.
In the projected scenario for 2028, the Reko Diq mine is expected to have a peak load of 150 MW, and the
current mining load of 93 MW brings the total load to 243 MW. Accounting for potential contingencies
related to the mining of other minerals, it is estimated that the overall mining load for 2028 could reach
approximately 256 MW.
Table 4: Peak Load Calculation for Mining in Balochistan

Extracted
Energy Peak Load @
ton/
SN Mineral Type Required/ 0.6 Load
(6
ton (kWh) Factor (KW)
months)
1 Gold/Copper Reko Diq 150,000
2 Gold/Copper Saindak 50,000
3 Coal 1,764,252 1 570
3 Marble 955,577 3 1,092
4 Limestone 2,914,408 2 1,663
5 Iron Ore 881,511 25 8,385
6 Chromite 91,692 30 1,047
7 Barite 78,186 9 268
8 Granite 2,118 2 1
9 Copper 1,070 20 8
10 Basalt 15,748 3 18

Total Peak kW 213,052
The extrapolated demand on hourly basis was added to the demand profile given by QESCO. The following
example for Rakshan shows high energy demand by mining segment.
Figure 26: Demand modelling, Rakshan 2028
2.1.3 Demand reduction through improved efficiency and distributed PV
The expected demand scenario assumes 7,482 GWh demand in 2028 for tube wells. This seems unrealistic
as with the current supply and payment problem, an increase of 5,100 GWh for tube wells is unlikely to
happen. Due to this, the low demand scenario for tube wells in the year 2028 with 5,472 GWh gross is
used as a base assumption. However, if the Government of Balochistan and/or the federal Ministry of
Energy decide to address the problem of electricity supply with DPV deployment according to the results
of a feasibility study commissioned by NTDC (NESPAK, 8p2, 2020), the gross demand would reduce to
2,792 GWh 2028 to a level of 75% DPV deployment. This would be a significant variation and increase the
provincial VRE surplus production to be exported to rest of the country. Details and background to the
gross demand reduction in ANNEX D: Distributed Generation.
The following two figures illustrate the demand reduction implication of 1.7 GWp DPV.

Figure 27: Gross demand of agriculture tube wells in current conditions
DPV deployment would have two effects: it would lead to loss reduction in transmission network which
in-turn, shall reduce the gross demand and it also delivers electricity locally which further reduce the
demand of electricity from grid. With 1.7 GWp of DPV the annual agriculture demand could be met.
Figure 28: Gross demand of agriculture tube wells in with DPV supply
2.1.4 Additional demand in Balochistan
Regional demand in industrial zones like Gwadar could exceed QESCOs forecast. However, at present,
there is no substantial basis for that to be concluded.
Most of the current electricity demand of the mining industry, i.e., approx. 93 MW is supplied by HFO or
locally available crude-oil. Saindak mine has a peak load of 50 MW whereby other small mines including
those for coal, barite, and other minerals, consume only 13 MW of peak power. This was computed using
data from the mines and minerals department of Balochistan based on the energy needed per ton

extraction of the aforementioned minerals. In the near future, Reko Diq shall require 300 MW of peak
load in the same vicinity. This energy requirement of the division can be met by VRE to a great extent.
2.1.5 Pakistan demand
The snapshot for 2028 and 2033 demand of VRE for the entire country is given in the IGCEP 2022. For
2028, NTDC forecasts 11.8 GWp of PV capacity in 2028 and 13.7 GWp in 2031 without specifying in detail
the potential sites. For wind energy 6,9 GW capacity has been optimized in the base case of IGCEP 2022
for 2031. This provides a huge window of opportunity for VRE development in Balochistan, especially as
the sites are to be selected by least-cost method.
Figure 29: IGCEP 2022 capacity development
Special PV initiative by Government of Pakistan, Special Task Force, has been initiated to install additional
PV plants in the short-run to reduce dependence on expensive energy generated through oil, gas and coal
plants.13 Optimal share of VRE has been identified to be 40% considering all constraints (8.2, PPI, 2023).
13
PM Shehbaz green-lights 10,000MW solar project to cut imported fuel use, DAWN, Sep 1, 2022

Figure 30: Optimal VRE capacity other studies
Source: (8.2, PPI, 2023)
As per IGCEP, by 2028, 12 GWp of PV within Pakistan can be assumed. The locations are not fixed and
shall be selected by merit order as per National Energy Policy 202114
Figure 31: Low demand forecast 2028 in hourly resolution
Demand source: IGCEP (NEPRA, 2022)
14
“Expansion in generation capacity shall be only on competitive and least cost basis (except for strategic projects,
for which: (a) the qualification and methodology shall be provided in the National Electricity Plan, (b) the
Government, in consultation with the Provincial Governments, shall approve such projects on case-to-case basis and
(c) the relevant sponsoring Government / Provincial Government shall provide the funding to bridge
the incremental cost (beyond least cost) of any such project). “ (MoE, Power Division, 2021)

2.1.6 Electricity Grid Analysis
In the IGCEP 2022 20 GW of Wind and PV electricity is expected to be installed be 2031. By 2033 probably
some 22 GW or mare as the IGCEP 2022 returned conservative VRE volumes. Of the volumes 4 GW are
existing Wind installations in Jhimpir area and some 2 GW of already installed PV Projects. There will be
some distributed generation under the net metering regime of maybe 2 GW. 14 GW remain open for least
cost supply according the National Electricity Policy of Pakistan 2021 (MoE, Power Division, 2021).
In the Grid model of 2028 cross border capacities to the other provinces of Pakistan have been analysed
and rated to estimate the maximum VRE export from Balochistan to Pakistan on the existing grid.
By adding and simulating the suggested PV potentials (AC) at nearest 132kV QESCO Grid Locations,
capacity of 132kV lines in NTDC 2028 model were verified. After adding PV resource potential as per WB
locational study it was observed that load profile as well as 132kV & 220kV transmission line Capacities of
QESCO and NTDC Network in 2028 Model were in well match & have sufficient space/capacity availability
resulting the system to remain under safe operational limits. Moreover, further space/capacity availability
for inserting more PV potential was found at 220kV Zhob-DIkhan, Loralai-DGKhan, Uch-Shikarpur, Dadu-
Khuzdar and 132kV Rakhnai-Sakhisarwar, Hub-KKI transmission line interconnections. The maximum of
VRE production at any time is capped at a cumulative cross border capacity of some 2.7 GW in 2028,
please refer Table 5: Transmission Line MW Export Capacities from Balochistan to Pakistan below.
Initially, PV Capacities (in AC) were added as per locational study at nearest available 132kV/11kV sub-
station points. Then, the remaining un-utilized potentials on concerned 220kV or 132kV Transmission
Lines, were used to identify new PV Sites in QESCO & NTDC Grid Network.
Based on relevant transmission line electrical parameters (i.e. line resistance, line inductive reactance and
line capacitive reactance) Surge Impedance Loading (SIL) was calculated which was used to find SIL limits
in MW as per St. Clair Curve based on length. Medium & Long length Transmission Lines were put under
safe loading condition based on their SIL Limits. For short length transmission lines, 80% of the thermal
loading limit of relevant transmission line was used to maintain the safe operational limits.
Further, since PV capacities have been introduced in the Network, for maintaining the supply & demand
balance the operating capacities of thermal (i.e. Uch, Uch2, Guddu, HBS, Bhikki, and Balloki) and Hydel
(i.e. Tarbela) Power Plants were reduced to their minimum, as a pre-feasibility analysis.
It is found that 220kV Uch-Shikarpur is the main transmission line interconnection between Balochistan
and other Pakistan that is currently being used for Uch power plants (located in Uch D.M. Jamali
Balochistan). Uch power plants (Uch1 586MW & Uch2 404MW) are in high merit order in NEPRA State of
Industry Report 2022 being one of the cheapest power generation combine cycle plants operated on local
gas field in Uch. Therefore, constraints in running Uch power plants at their minimum operating limits in

daytime will be a bottleneck for maximum Export of Balochistan PV Potential. Uch1 15 power plant has a
30 years term of the PPA and commissioning date October 18, 2000. (i.e. Seven (07) years remaining in
PPA contract from current year 2023). Since PPA of Uch1 is expected to expire in 2030 its associated
transmission network can be considered in 2033 case scenario. For Uch216 case, its PPA will expire in 2039
Table 5 show safe loading limits for the transmission lines allowing maximum export from Balochistan to
rest of country.
Table 5: Transmission Line MW Export Capacities from Balochistan to Pakistan

Length Capacity
Transmission Line Description
(km) (MW)17
Zhob-DIKhan 220kV Double Circuit Single Conductor ACSR Rail 211 390
Loralai-DGKhan 220kV Double Circuit Twin Bundle ACSR Rail Conductor 200 586
Uch2-Shikarpur 220kV Single Circuit Twin Bundle ACSR Rail Conductor 95 428
Uch1-Shikarpur 220kV Single Circuit Single Conductor ACSR Rail 158 240
DMJamali-Guddu 220kV Single Circuit Single Conductor ACSR Rail 168 230
Dadu-Khuzdar 220kV Double Circuit Single Conductor ACSR Rail 300 318
Rakhnai-Sakhisarwar 132kV Double Circuit Single Conductor ACSR Lynx 67 160
Hub-KKI 132kV Double Circuit Twin Bundle AAAC Greeley 16 350
18
Total Transmission Network Export Capacity from Balochistan 2,702
15
https://www.ppib.gov.pk/uch.html
16
https://www.ppib.gov.pk/uch2.html
17
Per line length
18
It is assumed that in daytime Uch, Uch2 Power Plants will be operating at their minimum, allowing more PV power
to be exported from Balochistan to Pakistan. Moreover, the export potential has been calculated based on
Transmission Line Lengths without considering N-1 contingency conditions to maximize export of PV power.

Figure 32: 2028 Grid model visualization including Export Capacities from Balochistan to Pakistan
2.1.7 Export outside Pakistan
Pakistan has an existing, limited grid connection to Iran (100 MW); by 2025, a 1,000 MW grid-connection
to central Asia is expected to be in place. This might induce additional demand from outside Pakistan, up
to the evacuation limit.
Central Asia
Central Asia has a demand of 1,000 MW, especially in winter months due to its seasonal HPP supply,
especially in Kyrgyzstan. ± 500kV HVDC link is under construction for the CASA project. Studies for reverse
power flow from Pakistan to Central Asian countries are part of the project. The available transmission
potential can be used to export energy from Pakistan to CASA countries (SNC-Lavalin International Inc.,
2011).

Figure 33: 2033 demand profile including CASA export in winter
Demand source: IGCEP (NEPRA, 2022)
Iran
A 220kV Double Circuit Transmission line of length approximately 140km from 220kV Polan (Iran) to 220kV
Gwadar Grid Station exists. The transmission link has a capacity (SIL limit based on length) of above 700
MW that reduces to above 350 MW considering N-1 contingency. Currently, there is an agreement of 100
MW power import from Iran to Pakistan which may be revised for export point of view.
UAE
The UAE has comparatively same solar irradiance with lower cost of financing for PV installation making
the export of solar power to UAE commercially unattractive.
Grid connection with seasonal exchange of electricity and grid stabilization might be a feasible option.
However, this requires an independent analysis.

3 SHORT TERM OPTIONS UNTIL 2028
3.1 Utility Scale Plants
Balochistan has abundant solar and wind energy potential as already identified in the Variable Renewable
Energy Locational Study (World Bank, 2021). The current study makes use of the previous analysis as a
foundation and explores the grid slots and land availability in more depth for utility scale projects. QESCO
and IGCEP 2022 data serve as reference for modelling the energy demand and supply in this respect. The
output of this exercise can be viewed as potential utility scale projects, overlayed on a PV energy output
map; see Figure 34. The sites are in line with the TSEP 2028 plan. Up to 5 GW of RE projects can be
developed using the existing and planned infrastructure, including 132 KV and 220 KV lines.
Figure 34: Identified utility scale VRE sites.

3.1.1 Identified Opportunities
In the short-term 2.5 GW of aggregated PV and wind sites have been identified in the VRE Locational Study
in preferred Scenario 3 (World Bank, 2021).
Table 6: Proposed PV sites by VRE Locational Study in Balochistan

Financial Expected PPA rate
Location Province Technology MWp Year
attractiveness USD cts/kWh
Kuchlak Balochistan PV 200 2023 9.74 4.17
Panjgur Balochistan PV 254 2023 9.58 4.26
Chinali Balochistan PV 132 2023 9.29 4.44
Khuzdar Balochistan PV 244 2023 9.24 4.47
Muslim Bagh Balochistan PV 132 2023 9.12 4.54
Khanozai Balochistan PV 120 2023 9.11 4.55
Drazanda Balochistan PV 132 2023 9.10 4.55
Kalaat Balochistan PV 120 2025 9.08 4.56
Manochar Balochistan PV 120 2025 9.05 4.58
Hernai Balochistan PV 120 2025 8.92 4.66
Mastung Balochistan PV 120 2023 8.87 4.69
Loralai Balochistan PV 50 2025 8.54 4.89
Musafirpur Balochistan PV 50 2025 8.53 4.89
Chaghi 25 Balochistan PV 250 2025 8.23 5.07
Hub Balochistan PV 210 2023 7.86 5.29
Mach Balochistan PV 132 2023 7.72 5.38
Boston Balochistan PV 130 2023 7.69 5.40
Total 2,516 4.70
Source: Locational Study (World Bank, 2021)
An additional 7 GW of aggregated PV and wind sites have been identified for the long-term scenario.
Based on the study’s results, a few developers have shown interest and have initiated independent efforts
such as putting up wind masts in Chagai District. The data obtained substantiates the assumptions made
in the VRE Locational Study (World Bank, 2021) regarding wind resource.
Up to 2023, only 650 MWp of PV plants have been considered by AEDB for auctioning. NTDC has
considered only 1,100 MW till 2028 as per TSEP.
For this study, an additional 2.2 GW have been identified without the need for grid enhancements using
additional lines and sites.
Table 7 summarizes the updated and new locations. The expected costs have slightly decreased as a result
of reduced capital expenditure (Capex) assumptions.

Table 7: Identified VRE sites for existing grid
Techn Expected PPA rate
SN Location Province MWp Year
ology USD cts/kWh
1 Musafirpur Balochistan PV 50 2023 4.76
2 Zhob new Balochistan PV 460 2025 4.61
3 Muslim Bagh Balochistan PV 130 2023 4.62
4 Darazanda Balochistan PV 130 2025 4.63
5 Chinali Balochistan PV 130 2023 4.62
6 Loralai new 1 Balochistan PV 150 2023 4.70
7 Loralai new 2 Balochistan PV 420 2023 4.44
8 Khuzdar 1 Balochistan PV 260 2023 4.45
9 Khuzdar 2 Balochistan PV 420 2023 4.34
10 Kuchlak portfolio Balochistan PV 360 2023 4.25
11 Khanozai Balochistan PV 110 2023 4.51
12 Mastung Balochistan PV 110 2028 4.55
13 Bostan Balochistan PV 110 2023 5.68
14 Quetta New Balochistan PV 350 2023 4.10
15 Mangochar Balochistan PV 110 2023 4.50
16 Kalat Balochistan PV 110 2023 4.47
17 Hernai Balochistan PV 110 2023 4.68
18 Mach Balochistan PV 130 2023 5.66
19 Hub New Balochistan PV 590 2023 4.90
20 Lasbela Balochistan PV 140 2023 5.43
21 Panjgur Balochistan PV 260 2023 4.44
22 Gwadar Balochistan PV 180 2023 4.85
Total 4,820 4.60
All the opportunities were evaluated for their expected energy yield, installation cost including grid
connection and expected price of electricity. An example of this evaluation is provided in form of a case
study in the next section.

3.1.2 Case study 1 - Utility Scale PV
Based on the available information and analysis performed, a case study for one of the proposed utility-
scale PV plants is presented in the following provide an illustration of how one of the suggested utility-
scale photovoltaic (PV) plants could potentially appear. Similar case studies for the utility scale PV Plants
mentioned in Table 7: Identified VRE sites for existing grid are available in ANNEX A: Case Studies - Utility
Scale Opportunities.
Kuchlak site
The site is located in a barren patch north of Kuchlak city. The area is approximately 28 km away from the
main Kuchlak city and 6 km from Pishin. The area is mostly barren, consisting of rocky soil with low
vegetation.
Figure 35: Image of the Kuchlak area in Balochistan, Pakistan.

Table 8: Basic site attributes
Category Information
Latitude 30°34'12.71"N
Longitude 66°57'24.50"E
Geographical location The site is located approximately 28 km away from the main
Kuchlak city and 6 km from Pishin.
Road access The site is accessible from Karachi via N65, distance 895 km.
Size Considered in TSEP by NTDC: 189 MWp
Optimized: 200 MWp
Technology Bifacial Crystalline Silicon (PV) with Horizontal Tracking
North-South
Distance to electric grid 6 km (Pishin), 28 km (Kuchlak)
Site ownership To be confirmed by Government of Balochistan
Land size Approx. 567 acres (229 ha)
Settlements on site To be confirmed.
3.1.3 Technical parameters
Table 9: Grid utilization factor and annual output

Category Unit Information
Plant Size PV MWp 200
Orientation Tracking N-S
Annual output at proposed size and site MWh/a 458.29
PV plant Utilization factor % 26.15
Grid Utilization factor % 34
Sizing of system
The sizing of the system determines how much capacity will be installed and how well the grid capacity
will be used. Figure below illustrates the effect of the proposed sizing compared to the traditional sizing.
In the proposed sizing the grid evacuation capacity is utilized optimally.

Figure 36: Exemplary output of proposed sizing vs historic sizing
Following graph illustrates the average hourly output per day of each month. The output fits well into the
maximum grid capacity.
Figure 37: Seasonal Profile: average simulated day in a month
Economic Evaluation
Depending on the merit order, it can be cost-effective to implement some level of curtailment. In this
study 8cts/kWh was assumed as the alternative cost of electricity for long term HPP plants. Under this
assumption, a curtailment of 50% for the additional marginal PV generation, costing 4.5 cents/kWh, would
result in the most cost-optimal sizing.

This effect is illustrated in the table below. The proposed sizing has an expected PPA price of 4.37
cents/kWh, while the maximum sizing case yields a higher NPV for CPPA and greater savings in the initial
years. However, if more PV systems compete on evacuation space further down the grid, especially
potential bottlenecks for exports to Pakistan, a maximum sizing for individual plants might not be sensible.
Table 10: Case summary and economic results

Economic Output Proposed Sizing Conventional Sizing Maximum Sizing
PV MWp 200 180 220
Production surplus % 0% 0% 2%
Initial year RE GWh/a 468 421 504
RE Grid utilisation % 35% 31% 38%
Capex MUSD 128 118 140
Opex MUSD/a 72 75 69
RE PPA cts/kWh 4.37 4.48 4.46
GHG reduction Mt CO2 8.2 7.4 8.8
NPV vs HPP CPPA MUSD 194 172 206
Initial year savings MUSD 17 15 18
3.1.4 Case study 2 - CSP
Sample plant description
The following table shows the parameters of a sample CSP plant that could be built in Balochistan. A size
of 100 MW CSP has been selected – lower size of the plant would not be conducive for economies of scale
and thus, increase the levelized cost of electricity. A GW-scale project, on the other hand, would be
challenging to be implemented in Pakistan in terms of risk and investment, being the first of its kind in
Pakistan.
The CSP plant has been designed here to provide stable electricity dispatch during evening and night-time,
which is its primary advantage over PV and wind power plants. It is highly recommended to combine the
CSP plant with PV on the same site to generate daytime power and consequently reduce the overall
expected cost of electricity, similar to the projects in Morocco and Dubai shown in the subsequent section.
However, the evaluation conducted in this study focuses solely on the CSP component, excluding the PV
integration.

Table 11: CSP sample plant parameter overview
Parameter Value Comments
Technology Tower or trough
Several pros and cons for both tower and trough.
Size 100 MW CSPMuch smaller sizes would not be economical; higher sizes increase
the overall financial risk.
Location North of Quetta Location limited due to available resource (DNI)! See ANNEX E: .
or Kalat region
Design For evening and Daytime dispatch through CSP would also be possible; however, for
night-time covering daytime power, a combination with PV is the better
dispatch option – this part is excluded from the analysis.
Cooling Dry cooling Dry cooling for lower water consumption; see ANNEX E: .
Water Approximately Water consumption for dry cooling of this plant19 based on the
consumption 180,000 m³ per estimated annual CSP production. Additional water is required for
year mirror and panel cleaning, but the volume is comparatively
negligible.
Storage 14h for evening During 8:00-16:00, PV would be the best option for co-generation
and night-time on the same site. CSP would deliver stable output e.g., during
usage 16:00-6:00 (can be controlled in tender process and operation)
Higher amounts of storage are also possible but probably not
required when PV is installed for co-generation.
CAPEX About 500 to CAPEX would be 550m USD based on recent cost information of
700 m USD 5,500 USD/kWp from (World Bank, 2021).20 However, due to
remoteness, security issues, inflation and country risk, higher
prices can be expected.
Possible PPA USD 0.07-0.10 Estimate high uncertainty, see comments on CAPEX and in
rate cts/kWh21 footnote, as well as ANNEX E: .
19
Based on the numbers from Annex ANNEX E: CSP technology, 350 l per MWh.
20
The global weighted-average total installation costs (CAPEX) of CSP plants commissioned in 2019 were USD 5,774
per kWp. High uncertainty range as there is no reference project in the region and influence of country risks is hard
to estimate. This number obviously depends strongly on the amount of storage included in the plant. However, this
is not reflected in the cited report. In any case, most plants built in the last years have a storage within the range of
7 to 12 hours.
21
Based on the results of the large-scale (close to 1 GW each) CSP-PV plants in Dubai (Noor 1) and Morocco (Midelt)
from recent years which both achieved a PPA rate of around 0.07 USD/kWh. Factor for driving down cost in
Balochistan is a very good DNI of 2,500 kWh/m² (in the best areas), while factors driving cost up are the cost of
finance, remote location, possible security issues, political risk factors, a probably smaller size and lack of
infrastructure; depending on how these can be handled will define how much the PPA rate increase will be compared
to the reference of 0.07 USD/kWh.

Parameter Value Comments
Capacity 58% Depends on amount of storage. Can be steered through tender
factor documents. Amounts up to 90% is possible without significant cost
increase; here, a co-location with PV and focus on evening peak
was assumed. In line with (IRENA , 2020).
Annual 510 GWh Assuming 58% capacity factor of 100 MWp
electricity
production
Annual CO2 410,000 tCO2 eq Assuming a replacement of coal22. This is justified as CSP provides
savings p.a. dispatchable power.
Grid Transmission -
connection grid
Conclusions for CSP
The following can be concluded from the parameters discussed in the previous table:
• CSP is a technically feasible technology for Balochistan and the solar irradiation level (DNI) at the
best spots (north of Quetta and Kalat region) is quite high in comparison to international levels
(e.g., better than Dubai).
• CSP cost for Balochistan would be highly competitive at international level. However, its
competitiveness with other energy sources in the power sector would depend on the bids
received and how its benefits of stable dispatch during the evening hours are evaluated vis-à-vis
the overall National power sector.
• The envisaged 100 MW CSP PV plant would require a Capex of more than 500 MUSD, leading to
an estimated PPA price of USD 0.07-0.11 per kWh (or more if developers require a high-risk
premium).
• CSP could provide “baseload-like” power (covering the evening peak) for the energy mix in
Balochistan. The capacity factor of such a CSP plant with about 14 hours of storage is around 58%
(assuming an “evening-only” design for dispatch). The day load can be covered through PV
technology making CSP and PV complementary technologies.
• The construction of such a CSP plant would generate local employment relatively higher than PV.
Challenges for CSP technology in Balochistan include:
• Costs for import, logistics and infrastructure development are higher compared to other, less
remote parts of the world where CSP projects are already being built (e.g. Dubai, Morocco);
22
Based on 0.8 t per MWh for coal.

• The relatively high-water consumption requirement of CSP in water scarce Balochistan region
(about 180,000 m³ per year for the 100 MW plant)
• High perceived political risk and uncertainty in Balochistan might drive up finance costs.
3.1.5 Provincial supply demand balance
Assuming that all identified utility plants would be connected by 2028, the grid export capacity from
Balochistan to the other provinces has been verified. For this purpose, the local demand exceeding the
supply of VRE was accumulated at an hourly resolution.
The local consumption pattern is mixed i.e. industrial & residential as well as agricultural. In the Quetta
division, the production of the proposed VRE exceeds the industrial and residential loads. However, when
considering the overall load, the production from VRE aligns with the load distribution throughout the
day, with higher generation during daytime and lower generation during nighttime.23 As shown in the
figure below, VRE would be sufficient to meet the local consumption requirements.
Figure 38: Supply demand balance Quetta 2028
However, at the provincial scale in low demand scenario, the outlook is different. Especially in the eastern
divisions, the potential VRE supply exceeds the total demand considerably and must be exported to other
provinces.
23
Assuming agriculture load is moved to day instead of night

Figure 39: Supply (low-) demand balance Balochistan 2028
As long as the grid capacity is sufficient and VRE supply from Balochistan is at minimal cost, this is optimal
for Pakistan.
3.1.6 Pakistan supply demand balance
The additional RE supply would need to be exported to other provinces unless there are international
export options. For 2028, a surplus VRE supply may not be available for consistent export throughout the
year, but there might be a seasonal opportunity for export to central Asia in winter season.
This means that in terms of national demand, there is no near-term limitation that would collide with an
ambitious VRE development in Balochistan. If Balochistan is to supply an even more significant share of
the national demand, this is certainly possible but requires some more development time and grid
infrastructure (see Chapter 4).
Figure 40: Impact of Balochistan export to Pakistan 2028, expected demand
Source: Demand data of IGCEP 2022

Even in the low demand scenario and without export to central Asia, the VRE supply from Balochistan is
relatively small.
Figure 41: Impact of Balochistan export to Pakistan 2028, low demand
3.1.7 Grid situation and debottlenecking
The 2028 grid model was used to verify the maximum capacity of suggested locations for utility scale
plants as well as the cross-border capacity for exporting electricity from Balochistan to other provinces.
The maximum VRE production at any time is capped at a cumulative beyond provincial border capacity of
around 2.7 GW in 2028 as shown in Table 5: Transmission Line MW Export Capacities from Balochistan to
Pakistan.
PV projects (having a defined AC power) were added as per locational study (World Bank, 2021) at nearest
available 132kV / 11kV sub-station points as a starting point. The remaining unutilized potential on
concerned 220kV or 132kV transmission lines is subsequently used to identify new RE sites in QESCO &
NTDC grid network.

Table 12 summarizes the salient features of the identified sites. The land allocation has been completed
only for a few selected sites.
Table 12: Identified VRE sites for existing grid

Loc AEDB NTDC Optimal Pakistan
AC Land
SN Tec Site Study BED 1.3 x AC connection
evaluated status
DC DC DC DC capacity
1 PV Musafirpur 50 50 DI Khan- 40
Zhob
2 PV Zhob new 460 220kV 350
(390 MW)
3 CSP Loralai CSP 100 DG Khan- 100
Muslim Bagh Loralai
4 PV 132 150 130 100
(Killa-Saifullah) 220kV
Drazanda (586 MW)
5 PV 132 150 130 100
(Loralai)
Chinali Sarwar/Rakh
5 PV 132 130 100
(Loralai) ni
6 PV New Loralai 1 150 132kV 115
7 PV New Loralai 2 420 (160 MW) 322
8 PV Khuzdar 244 50 300 260 Dadu- 200
9 Hyb Panjgur 254 50 75 260 Khuzdar 200
220kV
10 PV Khuzdar New 420 320
(318 MW)
Kuchlak Earma
11 PV 200 200 189 200 153
(Quetta) rk
Kuchlak Earma
12 PV 100 110 85
(Quetta) rk
Kuchlak Earma
13 PV 50 50 42
(Quetta) rk
Guddu/Shika
Khanozai
14 PV 120 110 rpur-Sibbi- 85
(Pishin)
Quetta
15 PV Mastung 120 110 85
220kV
16 PV Bostan (Pishin) 120 100 40 110 85
(898 MW)
Mangochar
17 PV 120 110 85
(Kalat)
18 PV Kalat 120 110 85
19 PV Harnai (Sibbi) 120 110 85
20 PV Mach (Kachi) 132 100 130 100
21 CSP Quetta (CSP) 100 40 127 127

Loc AEDB NTDC Optimal Pakistan
AC Land
SN Tec Site Study BED 1.3 x AC connection
evaluated status
DC DC DC DC capacity
22 PV Quetta New 350 267
Iran-Gwadar
Gwadar
23 PV 50 180 132kV 135
(220kV)
(135 MW)
Winder
24 PV 50 50 50 42
(Lasbela)
350 MW to
25 PV Uthal (Lasbela) 50 25 50 43
KE
26 PV Bela (Lasbela) 50 50 40 25
27 PV Hub 210 150 590 450
Total Capacity 2,206 1,000 1,169 5,047 3,926
Figure 42: 2028 Export grid capacity based on transmission line lengths.

The analysis of the grid has identified an interconnection capacity of approximately 2.35 GW to Pakistan,
excluding the separate connection to K-Electric. Through supply-demand analysis, it has been simulated
that even in a low demand scenario, a maximum of 1.78 GW of power flow from Balochistan to other
provinces can be expected during the daytime from April to June. This projection assumes the absence of
distributed generation within Balochistan.
To assess the feasibility, the operations of Uch I and II, which contribute to the same system, need to be
considered. Uch I & II have a combined capacity of some 930 MW with an average capacity factor of 87
(NEPRA, 2022). For this analysis 930 x 0.87 = 809 MW have been considered.
In this analysis, it was assumed that VRE will be used for local demand, exceeding demand will be met by
Uch I &II and remaining demand will be supplied from other provinces. In case VRE exceeds the local
demand, electricity will be exported to other regions of Pakistan. Uch I and II will also export until export
line capacity of QESCO grid except Dadu-Khuzdar connection of 318 MW is met.
Even in the low demand scenario, the cumulative capacity of interconnecting lines will not be met.
Figure 43: Total QESCO export volume over time at interconnection lines
There are certain months when the capacity of Uch I and II cannot be fully utilized due to limitations in
their direct connecting lines and excess of VRE during that period. In a low demand scenario, Uch I and II
would save approximately 6% of their maximum annual output.

Figure 44: Uch I & II production simulation
Either the lines could be debottlenecked, or the 6% reduction will be appreciated: Given that the gas field
supplying Uch I&II is expected to reach its peak in 2025, there is a possibility for the lifetime extension of
utilizing the low-cost local gas. This is particularly significant if, in the future, more variable renewable
energy (VRE) from Balochistan can contribute to additional savings. The value of gas as a balancing power
source will be particularly high, especially after 2030 when the grid system will have a greater integration
of VRE. The extended availability of local gas from Uch will help reduce dependence on costly imports
during that period.
Figure 45: Uch I & II gas field lifetime projection
Source: Global Data Oil & Gas Intelligence Center

3.2 Mining until 2028
3.2.1 Identified Opportunities
The mining industry plays a significant role in the region's economy and development. Balochistan is
known for its rich mineral deposits, such as copper, gold, chromite, coal, and natural gas. The province
has attracted both national and international mining companies due to its resource potential. The mining
industry in Balochistan has the potential to contribute substantially to the national economy and create
employment opportunities.
However, the mining sector in Balochistan faces various challenges. These challenges include inadequate
infrastructure, limited access to modern technology and expertise, and security concerns in certain areas.
Additionally, there have been concerns regarding the equitable distribution of benefits from mining
activities and the protection of the rights of local communities.
Efforts are being made to address these challenges and promote sustainable mining practices in
Balochistan. The government of Pakistan, in collaboration with international organizations (namely MCC
and Barrick Gold) and private investors, is working towards improving infrastructure, promoting
transparency in the sector, and ensuring the participation of local communities in decision-making
processes.
The sustainability aspect of green power sourcing for mines is an important consideration. In this regard,
Balochistan has the potential to provide both environmentally friendly and cost-effective electricity. As
most mines are located in remote areas without access to the public grid, this power supply for mining
sites is to be considered separately from the on-grid VRE potential discussed earlier.

Figure 46: Mining areas and PV resource
Balochistan mining industry has the potential to contribute significantly to the economic development of
the province and the country as a whole. With proper planning, investment, and stakeholder engagement,
the province can harness its mineral wealth to create a sustainable and inclusive mining sector that
benefits both the local communities and the national economy. Two such noteworthy mining sites,
together with their options for VRE power, are described below.
The Saindak Copper and gold (Cu-Au) deposit is a hydrothermally altered porphyry-type deposit with
medium to low-grade copper (Cu) and gold (Au), along with minor silver (Ag). Equipment used in the
mining operation includes electric face shovels, trucks, support equipment like dozers and graders, and
water trucks. The infrastructure requirements for this relatively large mining and processing operation
include significant quantities of power, water, consumables, and manpower. Electricity is generated by
heavy oil engines with a total capacity of 50 MW, supplying power to the mine, processing facilities, and
the township. Water is sourced from underground wells located 37 km away and pumped to storage dams
on-site. Additionally, water is Recovered from concentrate and tailings dewatering operations, including
the tailings dam, for reuse in the process.

Most of the mines have relatively low electricity requirements compared to international mines. The total
electricity requirement is estimated to be 65 MW (excluding Reko Diq) of which most is supplied off-grid
through locally available HFO or Diesel.
The mines are mostly located in remote areas with limited grid access. PV plants can be deployed at such
sites for fuel saving during the daytime. Deployment of Wind and CSP technology is also possible but
limited to resource availability. Combination of these technologies (PV, Wind and CSP) along with battery
storage (BESS) can provide a complete off-grid renewable energy solution with considerable cost saving
in term of fuel.
To illustrate the potential for VRE to power these mining activities, two case studies have been prepared
for two new mines in planning phase where data on load could be obtained. Based on the results of case
studies and available data on mining sector, results have been extrapolated for the mining industry.
Based on available data and analysis, the consultant assumes 250 MW of Wind and 220 MWp of PV could
be implemented by 2028.

3.2.2 Case study 3 - Reko Diq
Barrick Gold Corporation plans to develop the Reko Diq mining site in Chagai, Balochistan. The mining
operation will consist of production of 40 million metric tons copper and gold ore of 40 million metric tons
per annum (MTPA) throughput in the first phase by 2028. Based on initial information obtained from the
company (Barrick Gold, 2023), it is estimated that the electricity demand needed at the site for this phase
will have a peak demand of approx. 150 MW annually. There is no operational grid in the area, so the
electricity demand for Reko Diq would need to be met through a local plant. Based on the currently
available information, it is expected that HFO-based power plant(s) shall be installed for energy needs.
The expected cost of electricity including transportation charges would cost 0.26 USD/kWh approximately
and emit 1 kg of CO2 per kWh, i.e., about 340 MUSD and 1.3 million metric tons of CO2 per year in total.24
The running cost and the environmental impact would therefore be quite high.
On the other hand, the area around the project site is one of the best sites for both wind and PV power
generation even at a global level. Due to the excellent resource availability and generation pattern on site,
these two sources could deliver more than 85% of the annual electricity demand. The remaining 15% of
the annual electricity demand shall be met by an HFO plant resulting in a total cost of 0.12 USD/kWh. The
annual savings for the company would be approximately USD 136 million per annum compared to the
operation of an HFO plant.
A possible geographical layout of the hybrid RE plant is depicted in the following figure.
24
Own simulations, for details please refer to complete pre-feasibility study

Figure 47: Layout of proposed wind-PV plant indicated by a dashed rectangle.
This layout follows the same approach as for the VRE GW park in 4.1 which is proposed to be located in
the vicinity. The first step in the designing is the micro-siting of the wind turbines depending on prevailing
wind direction and high wind resource in and around the Reko Diq site. Thereafter, the PV trackers are
optimally placed in between wind turbines to reduce shading losses.
The optimized total supply cost including investment and fuel is estimated at around 12.1 cts/kWh by
combining battery storage with 150 MW HFO back-up power. The generators are essentially required for
the purpose of backup and safety, therefore, only CAPEX needs to be considered. The elimination of GHG
emissions would mount up to 20 million metric tons of CO2 over 25 years and the annual savings result in
an NPV of 1.4 bn USD across 25 years at a discount rate of 12.5%.25
A third party would assume the role of an independent power producer (IPP) and invest in this hybrid RE
plant in order to sell the electricity to Barrick Gold as the Bulk Power Consumer26 so that Barrick Gold
would not have to invest itself. This standard business practice is prevailing in Pakistan which is in line
25
GHG reductions have not been financially evaluated.
26
Bulk Power Consumer as defined in the “NEPRA Act”: Regulation of Generation, Transmission and Distribution of
Electric Power Act, 1997.

with NEPRA rules, regulations, and guidelines. The same logic and economics apply for the second phase
of the plant which is also expected to have a peak load of 150 MW.
Figure 48: Annual production profile of RE sources at Reko Diq site
To meet the energy demand of the mining operations, the lowest cost RE hybrid plant, comprising 200
MW solar power and 250 MW of wind power, would approximately produce 40% excess energy that shall
be wasted.27 However, if the project site is connected to the national grid at some point in the future, the
surplus energy could be exported to the national grid and any deficit energy imported. In this case, battery
storage would no longer be needed, and the HFO plant may only be used for emergency operations –
further reducing the cost of electricity with a highly attractive expected payback period of 4.4 years.28
Barrick Gold has already initiated feasibility study revision for the mining project. However, a detailed
feasibility study of the power project should be commenced soon. Barrick Gold’s indicative timeline
suggests production in 202829. Based on Consultant’s understanding of the Pakistani power sector, a COD
can be archived by 2028 with considerable margin.
27
The marginal unit of installed PV and Wind energy will cost only 0.2 USD/kWh at 80% curtailment as the marginal
production cost is only 0.04 USD/kWh.
28
Presumably the grid connection was not planned up to 2022 as the agreement for development was reached in
2023.
29
https://www.barrick.com/English/news/default.aspx

Table 13: Case summary and economic results
Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 Case 6
HFO Base Offgrid Offgrid Hybrid Grid Grid +
Economic Output
case30 PV PV + + PV Hybrid
Storage Storage
PV MWp 0 150 350 200 150 200
Wind MW 0 0 0 250 0 250
Battery MWh 0 0 350 250 0 0
Production surplus % 0% 0% 28% 40% 0% 44%
HFO fuel / Grid supply MUSD/a 257 168 107 38 98 -2
RE Load Utilisation % 0.0% 35% 59% 85% 35% 81%
Total Capex MUSD 0 96 313 501 230 560
Opex MUSD/a 257 170 116 49 103 8
Capex Grid MUSD 6.5 6.5 6.5 140 140
PPA incl Grid cts/kWh 25.6 18.3 16.1 12.1 13.5 8.9
GHG reduction Mt CO2 0.0 8.2 13.9 20.3 8.2 34.1
NPV company MUSD 0 689 963 1,385 1,163 1,695
Initial year savings MUSD 0 73 96 136 121 168
The case simulation shows a connection to Mastung over 500 km has the lowest overall cost if combines
with a local hybrid system of PV and Wind. The otherwise curtailed excess electricity production can be
evacuated by the new line.
Please see details in ANNEX B: Case study for Mining.
30
All alternative cases also include an HFO plant as backup.

3.3 Impact of distributed PV
3.3.1 Situation and obstacles
Distributed generation from PV (DPV) is not the main focus of this study. However, it has a significant
opportunity (at the provincial level) and depending on the implementation of DPV, the overall grid
capacity changes which might become a constraint for the grid connected utility plants. The opportunities
for DPV are net metering and solarization of agriculture tube wells.
Net metering potential is considered low as it is more of an urban and industrial application which has no
significant base in Balochistan with the exception of Quetta. This study assumes the impact of net
metering to be integrated in the demand forecast.
There are approximately 29,500 grid connected agriculture tube wells, which consume 70% of current
electricity supply. The electricity for these tube wells is subsidized and payment collection is a challenge,
resulting in significant losses. This subject is of prime importance to Pakistan as the insufficient payment
recoveries are adding to the burgeoning circular debt, with more that 300 million USD every year and
getting worse. Additionally, the unsustainable use of water for irrigation is depleting the water table
quicker than it can be replenished.
3.3.2 Solution proposal
In 2021, NTDC commissioned a feasibility study to address the circular debt problem, and the
unsustainable water usage. The study (NESPAK, 8p2, 2020) was delivered in 2020 and is based on site
visits of over 250 farms across Balochistan. The study proposed the following solutions based on its
findings;
Electricity supply
• Power supply is insufficient for irrigation needs in the peak season and voltages are too low;
• Inefficient motors and pumps are in use;
• Famers install additional motors and pumps to use power in shorter time windows;
• Resulting voltage is very low and detrimental for motors and pumps;
• Very high line losses, severe load shedding and inefficient equipment usage;
• About 50% of today’s wasted energy supply could be recovered with new motors / pump, PV
electricity for local supply and optimized load shedding schedules.
The following figure illustrates the operation of the line during peak load, along with a categorized list of
issues and their current status updates.

Figure 49: Loss and voltage simulation of Sira Qila feeder without and with DPV
Source: (NESPAK, 8p2, 2020)
Payments
• There is no proper metering/billing system for the electricity consumed by the local community
both for the sanctioned and additional transformers. Moreover, the farmers do not feel obliged
to pay for the insufficient electricity supply due to heavy loadshedding.
• Farmers face additional expenses for procuring diesel to keep their motors running during the
peak season, as well as incurring costs for the repair and maintenance of these motors.
• Farmers can be motivated to pay for the consumed electricity if the supply and quality of the same
is improved.
Water nexus
• Irrigation practices can be improved to save about 10% of water.

• Water is wasted during the off season as farmers do not save electricity even when water is not
required.
• The water table is depleting at an average rate of 4m/annum which could be addressed by
improved practices and paying for the electricity consumed.
The following interventions have been proposed in the feasibility study:
• Augment the feeder lines with PV electricity to stabilize and maintain line voltages.
• Loadshedding patterns should be adjusted to minimize line losses.
• Farmers shall be supplied with efficient motors and pumps that can be controlled remotely to
deliver sufficient water meeting the crop requirements.
• Farmers can be encouraged to save electricity and hence, reduce water consumption by selling
saved electricity through net-metering.
• The circular debt of USD 300 million/annum can be eliminated by a subsidy scheme of around
USD 15 million/for implementing DPV. This subsidy shall be available to the farmers for the first

15 years after which the farmers will be in a position to pay for their consumption as per other
customers.
• It was proposed to pilot the concept on one or two typical feeders before it is rolled out at a larger
scale.
Status since the feasibility submission
The Government of Balochistan decided to opt for an off-grid PV supply to farmers, coupled with removal
of electricity lines. That solution was ruled out in the feasibility as too expensive31, socially unacceptable
and too risky for the water table development as the famers would have no check and balance and
virtually free electricity during the off-season. The PC1 was deferred by the planning commission for the
reasons mentioned above.
In spring 2022, Secretary Power, MoE Power division, agreed to initiate a pilot program for the proposed
solution outlined in the feasibility study. The World Bank expressed its willingness to provide financial
support for such pilot projects. However, since then, the government of Balochistan has not submitted
any funding requests for the implementation of these pilots.
2.4 GWp of DPV could be added in the province at 11 kV feeder level if the Government of Balochistan
proceeds to implement a solution for all feeders in question,
3.3.3 Potential RE supply
The electricity demand for agriculture tube wells is well researched. The following figures show 2.4 GWp
PV installation at 11 kV feeders to supply electricity to the tube wells. During the summer season, there is
energy deficit that would be fed by the grid whereas during the winter season, excess PV energy will feed
back into the grid.
31
Off-grid supply requires a sizing for peak electric needs which is 100% more than in a grid connected scenario.

Figure 50: DPV supply and agriculture tube well demand in 2 example months
Most of the 11 kV feeders in Balochistan have the potential to absorb small-to-medium scale PV plants.
The specific size and locations would need to be assessed individually.
However, the DG supply reduces the gross load of Balochistan by approximately 50% with a 75% penetrate
rate of DPV which translates to 1.3 GWp of installed DPV.
I. The system losses imposed by the present supply pattern, inefficient equipment and over
pumping shall be reduced significantly leading to overall reduction in the demand of electricity by
around 25%
II. The supply of DPV energy reduces the gross demand of electricity by another 25%
Both factors have been modeled and tested with the 2028 grid model of NTDC. The additional DPV
electricity and gross demand reduction are still within the export capacity limits. However, the output of
Uch I&II would be limited due to interconnection line capacity constraints at an 80% safety level.

Figure 51: Balochistan Pakistan interconnection volume – low demand – 1.3 GWp DPV
In case of 1.3 GWp DPV, the fuel savings of Uch I & 2 would increase to 17-22% for the expected and low
demand scenario.
Figure 52: Uch Pakistan interconnection volume – 1.3 GWp DPV impact on Uch I&II
The evacuation capacity related savings would extend the lifespan of the Uch plants by one-fifth of the
projected lifetime.
Alternatively the transmission line capacity constraint of 80% might be expanded for a few hours a day in
summer to allow for more peak export if the supply situation in country is severe. However, in this
scenario, despite the presence of 1.3 GWp of distributed photovoltaic (DPV), the annual savings of Uch
would be reduced to 6%.

Figure 53: Uch Pakistan interconnection volume – 1.3 GWp DPV – 100% transmission capacity
In the broader perspective, Balochistan would contribute a greater amount of VRE electricity to Pakistan
with the inclusion of distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems.
Figure 54: Pakistan supply demand balance 2028 including DPV

4 LONGER TERM OPPORTUNITIES UNTIL 2033
4.1 Gigawatt hybrid park
4.1.1 Current Situation
Near-term implementation plan (till 2028) has been discussed and analyzed in this report. However, more
reliable least-cost energy options are available in the long-run that shall require additional installation of
hydro, solar PV and wind plants.
Although the IGCEP 2022 shortlisted 11.92 GW of utility-scale renewable energy parks throughout
Pakistan, further studies indicate that the most optimal approach is the installation of GW-scale RE parks
at twice that capacity (8.2, PPI, 2023).
While hydroelectric power generation can offer low-cost electricity, there are several factors that
contribute to the protracted and uncertain development cycle as well as the capital-intensive nature of
these projects. Development cycle, capital-intensive technology, hydrological risk and power-supply
security are few of the challenges faced by these projects. To mitigate these challenges, careful planning,
risk assessment, and environmental considerations are essential.
As the availability of wind resources are much more scattered than solar, GW parks opportunities are
bound to be located in high wind areas which are Jhimpir ( Sindh) Chagai and Panjgur.
The Chagai region in western Balochistan, close to the Reko Diq mining site, possesses significant potential
for wind and solar PV electricity co-generation. The abundance of resources, such as high wind speeds
and ample sunlight, makes it an attractive location for renewable energy development. This area's vast
space availability further enhances its potential for generating green energy at low costs. In the vicinity of
Panjgur, a similar opportunity exists. There is flat and barren land with excellent wind and solar resources.

Figure 55: Locations of proposed GW parks – dominated by wind
Source: globalwindatlas.info
On completion of the entire project, including scaling up to 7-9 GW, is expected not to cost more than 5.7
cts/kWh, including the cost of evacuation. The excellent resources available in the Chagai region, including
high wind speeds and ample sunlight, contribute to the high load factor achieved by renewable energy
projects in the area. A load factor of over 60% indicates efficient utilization of the installed capacity and a
high percentage of time during which the power plant operates at its maximum output.
Comparing the load factor of renewable energy projects in the Chagai or Panjgur region with typical hydro
power plants in Pakistan, which have an average load factor of 55%, suggests that the renewable energy
projects in Chagai and Panjgur have the potential for even higher operational efficiency.
However, one key challenge that needs to be addressed is the requirement for a High Voltage Direct
Current (HVDC) transmission line to evacuate the electricity generated in these remote areas and deliver
it to the rest of Pakistan's grid. The cost of such a line and the converter stations are very high and make
up to 25% of the overall cost. With the possibility of scaling the converter stations gradually, it is feasible

to achieve less than 6-8 cts/kWh PPA for electricity, even with less than 2 GW installed capacity. This
benchmark aligns with the longer-term opportunities presented by gigawatt-scale HPP projects.32
4.1.2 Case study 4 – Chagai GW Hybrid Park
A large area in the Chagai region in western Balochistan, close to the Reko Diq mining site, is globally one
of the best sites for wind and solar PV electricity co-generation. It has immense resources and space
available and could generation green energy at very low costs; the only challenge remaining being the
requirement for an HVDC line to evacuate the electricity from this remote region to the rest of Pakistan.
Within the Locational VRE Study (World Bank, 2021), this site was identified as ideal for a gigawatt-scale
solar-wind hybrid park and analyzed on a high level; this section lays out how such a plant could possibly
look like in more detail. A GW park in Chagai could start with 2 GW of Wind and Solar and be scaled up to
3 GW of Wind and even 6 GWp of PV, all being evacuated with a 4 GW HVDC line from Chagai to
Muzaffargarh.
In the 1st phase with only 2 GW installed, the cost of electricity would stay around 8 cts/kWh – which is
the assumed cost of a new Hydropower project including necessary grid connection at present cost of
financing.
The cost-optimal configuration for the envisaged size would be 3 GW of wind and 4 GWp of PV power
with a 4 GW HVDC line (± 800 kV). Depending on the next best alternative source of electricity, the DC
capacity could be extended to some 9 GW.
When the envisaged full 7- 9 GW are built, the expected PPA for the plant falls to some 6.46 – 6.66 kWh,
including the cost of evacuation. This is possible due to the excellent resources at the site, combined with
only small specific costs for transmission, as the connection line achieves a load factor of over 60%.
The alternative to such a GW park development is to construct a hydropower project of similar size.
However, available data suggests that such hydropower projects come with a cost of around 8 cts/kWh
and typically have an average grid load factor of 55% due to seasonal water availability. In comparison, a
GW park in Balochistan offers greater financial attractiveness. Furthermore, implementing a PV-Wind
hybrid system would help mitigate the high-country risk associated with water availability in late spring
and early summer, which is a concern for hydropower projects operated by the Indus River.
Finally, a VRE park can be scaled up over time including the possibility of scaling up the costly high-voltage
direct current (HVDC) converter stations. As a result, the time required to bring the project to market
would be considerably faster compared to the development of a HPP GW project. Below graph shows the
key output indicators.
32
This assumes a WACC of 12%, Capex of 2,300 USD/kW, 300 km of 220 KVA grid connection and a CF of 55%

Figure 56: Key data for GW park development over time
The layout of the hybrid RE plant is depicted in the figure below.
Figure 57: Layout of proposed Hybrid RE Park
The project site is enclosed in a white boundary – adjacent to Reko Diq mining project (in green boundary).
Wind turbines are marked as black dots; PV areas as blue rectangles. The location was chosen because it

is likely to have a hybrid plant comprising PV and wind technologies. This plant can be easily expanded,
enabling initial evacuation through a 220 kVA connection to Mastung in the first phase.
This rough layout is a result of prioritizing wind turbine micro siting first, based on prevailing wind
direction and high wind resource in and around the area. The micro siting would be evaluated closely and
surface-specific at the feasibility stage. The area demarcated for Reko Diq mining operation projects and
terrain with obvious challenges have been excluded. After locating the wind turbines, PV trackers have
been optimally placed in between the wind turbines to avoid shading losses, running parallel to wind
turbine rows. Although this orientation deviates slightly from the ideal orientation for a standalone
ground-mounted PV system, the impact on solar resource loss is minimal due to the east-west tracking.
The full park would be split into smaller units of solar and wind plants, each of which could be built by a
different investor. It is assumed that private investors would step in to invest in these solar and wind
plants, acting as Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and selling the electricity to CPPA. Under the
prevailing RE policy, NEPRA rules, regulations, and guidelines, this is the standard business practice in the
Pakistani electricity sector.
Economic summary
The table below summarizes key economic figures including the NPV for CPPA, comparing the hydropower
park with VRE GW park in different development phases (supplying electricity at 8 cts / kWh at Chagai
location).
Table 14: Case summary and economic results and expected NPV at 12.5% DCF
Economic Output 2 GW 4 GW 6 GW 7 GW 8 GW 9 GW
PV MWp 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Wind MW 1,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
Initial year RE GWh/a 6,089 10,983 17,786 19,374 20,656 21,506
Grid utilization % 18% 32% 52% 57% 61% 64%
Total Capex MUSD 3,220 4,964 7,506 7,965 8,529 9,094
Opex MUSD /a 2,354 1,988 1,483 1,357 1,262 1,202
Capex HVDC MUSD 1,475 1,475 2,168 2,168 2,168 2,168
RE PPA + HVDC cts/kWh 8.24 7.10 6.66 6.46 6.50 6.66
NPV vs HPP CPPA MUSD 915 2,504 4,566 5,266 5,568 5,550
The lowest average cost is expected to be at 7 GW. Due to the low marginal cost of adding more PV, a
total park size of 9 GW has the same expected average PPA as that of 6 GW park, however, the evacuation
capacity factor increases from 52% to 64%. As wind turbines need more space to avoid wake effects and
curtail fatigue stresses, wind deployment (in the highest wind resource region) is ultimately limited due
to spatial considerations.

Figure 58: Hourly supply simulation during the year for 7 GW case
An indicative timeline of the full hybrid RE GW park and its typical project development deliverables are
depicted below.
Table 15: Indicative timeline for the hybrid RE project development at Chagai, Balochistan, Pakistan33 .
Activity / Milestones 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Technical Feasibility
● ● ●
Studies
Environmental Studies ● ●
Transmission Line
● ●
Feasibility
Grid Studies (GS) ● ● ●
Grid Study Approvals 34 ● ● ●
EPC Contractor Bidding
● ● ● ● ●
and Negotiations
Project Auctions35 I II III IV
EPA and IA Negotiations36 I II III IV
Signing of EPAs and IAs I II III IV
33
The timeline for developing the power projects may still change due to unforeseeable circumstances.
34
If the hybrid park is being auctioned by the government, the grid studies are expected to be conducted by NTDC
in which case approvals may not be required. However, prior to construction phase the studies maybe updated by
Bidders with specific WTGs, PV panels and inverter specifications. In which case a “no objection” letter may be
obtained from NTDC.
35
Based on current information, at least four bidding cycles are assumed.
36
EPA structure would depend on prevailing market regime and standards.

Activity / Milestones 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Financial Close I II III IV
Transmission Line
● ● ●
Construction
Construction of Projects ● ● ● ● ●
Start of Operations ● ●
It is expected that hybrid park would consist of many smaller projects. These projects would be auctioned
(based on reverse bidding) periodically over the next decade. Hence, separate tariff timelines have not
been indicated, usual in unsolicited projects. The agreed tariff would ultimately be announced by NEPRA
after reviewing the project bidding documents, followed by conclusion of project security documents
between the Government of Pakistan and the successful bidder.
The full case study for Chagai location is annexed in ANNEX C: Case study GW park.
4.1.3 Potential demand and RE supply
The overall demand for additional electricity, beyond the existing grid, was established under Chapter 2
Electricity demand & Grid analysis. Once the other available locations i.e., HPP or VRE, and the cost
estimates and timelines involved are finalized, a hybrid GW park in Balochistan is expected to come out
as the most economically feasible option.
The integration of large-scale renewable energy projects must be performed in a way that ensures grid
stability and reliability considering the already identified utility-scale plants and low demand forecast for
Pakistan. Sufficient grid inertia and dispatchable supply should be there while considering the addition of
a significant 4 GW supply to the grid by 2028.
Figure 59: Balochistan RE supply including GW Park in 2028 low demand forecast.
However, in the 2033 scenario, the GW Park at full output looks feasible – even in a low demand scenario.

Figure 60: Balochistan RE supply including GW Park in 2033 low demand forecast
The low remaining supply in certain hours of April and May can be mitigated by shifting hydroelectric
power plant (HPP) electricity production during the day. The simulation for this study does not re-optimize
the hourly dispatch for HPP. The hourly distribution of HPP output throughout the day would be adjusted
to avoid any disruptive periods, as shown in the following figure at 6 pm.
Figure 61: Balochistan RE supply including GW Park in April 2033 low demand forecast
Based on the information provided and assuming the appropriate planning and infrastructure
development, it is possible that by 2033, Pakistan could install around 14 GW of VRE capacity. This
significant addition of VRE has the potential to make a substantial, low-cost, and reliable contribution to
the energy supply even in low demand forecast scenarios and will make a significant contribution to
cleaner and more affordable energy.

Figure 62: Balochistan RE supply including GW Park in 2033 expected demand forecast
The GW park at Chagai would be connected to the Pakistani grid by a ± 800 kV, 4 GW bipole HVDC line of
an approximate length of 1,000-1,200 km to Central Punjab. The cost of line, interconnection and
associated losses are part of the RE park cost.

Figure 63: Balochistan RE supply including GW Park in 2033 low demand forecast
The interconnection line can be developed in two phases:
• USD 1.5 billion capital expenditure would be required for laying down the line and 2 GW converter
capacity during the first phase;
• USD 0.7 billion would be required in the second phase for additional 2 GW converter capacity.
The electricity can be dispatched with minimal extra effort from Muzaffargarh, please see details in (World
Bank, 2022).
4.2 Electricity export options

4.2.1 Current situation
There are a few existing and planned interconnections with central Asia through the CASA line (having 1
GW capacity) and to Iran – Gwadar of 300 MW as well as Iran – Taftan.

Figure 64: [Interconnection network envisaged for Balochistan]
Source: McWilliams energy, Off-season powerflow on CASA-1000
These connections at present are being used for import only. Once the potential of RE supply in
Balochistan is exploited, there will be no need for import anymore. However, the connection lines can be
used for stabilizing the grid and also exchanging electricity with central Asia and Iran for optimizing the
annual supply mix. In the case of central Asia, there is a surplus of energy in summer and a deficit in winter.
This could be exploited by changing the current scenario of outright purchase of electricity in summer to
an exchange by supplying back electricity for the same price in winter. The net result would be a time
swap of electricity produced in winter with low demand in Pakistan for more electricity in summer. The
time swap would effectively shift more supply from GW park from winter to summer and this turns
electricity import against foreign reserves into indigenous production.
As far as Iran is concerned, no information was available for this study to determine the viability of
changing the import into a time swap. This scenario can be explored through mutual discussions between
CPPA and their Iranian counterparts.

4.2.2 CASA option
The CASA-1000 HVDC interconnection connects Pakistan and Central Asian nations via Afghanistan.
Construction on the project has already begun. In Pakistan and Tajikistan, project part is almost
developed. Both Central Asia and South Asia experience seasonal load variations. Pakistan's peak load is
in the summer, while that of Central Asia is in the winter. The initiative presents an opportunity for
Pakistan to utilize the surplus hydropower available in the central Asian nations during the summer.
Furthermore, the same connection can be utilized to export the excess electricity generated by the
proposed hybrid gigawatt-scale parks (comprising PV and wind technologies) in Balochistan to the central
Asian nations during the winter..
4.2.3 IRAN option
Power grid linkages to Iran exist (already 100 MW to be scaled, up to 300 MWp) currently used for import
only. Export of VRE to Iran can be a viable option. The local generation from (Gwadar, Panjgur) could be
exported on existing lines as a first step up to 300 MW. Later on, dedicated lines could be built, similar to
the currently planned link from Quetta to Zahedan (Iran). Moreover, the Locally dispersed anchor loads
(Mining) can be connected.
As regards import from Iran, the following links are in the pipeline phase:
• 300 MW import (220 kV) 75 km Gwadar to Polan (by early 2023)
• 100 MW (132 kV) Jackigor to Mand
• <5MW import 2 x 20 kV links

4.3 Green Ammonia (Hydrogen)
4.3.1 Worldwide green hydrogen markets and potential for Pakistan
As per the ‘REPowerEU strategy’ (European Commission, 2022), the EU plans to import 10 Mt of green
hydrogen per year by 2030. This is arguably the most specific and reliable announced plan for a green
hydrogen market worldwide at the moment, while other green hydrogen markets will certainly emerge
on basis of the Paris 2015 agreement. With the current worldwide efforts towards decarbonization, it is
evident that green hydrogen will have an important role throughout the next years as bridge technology,
and likely in the long-term as well. As many industrialized countries cannot ramp up their own generation
capacities for green hydrogen in a short time and often lack the required space and competitive wind and
solar resources, the demand for hydrogen of Europe and other regions will have to be supported by
worldwide green hydrogen imports (Figure 65).
Figure 65: Electrolyser projects under development worldwide.
Source: (Aurora Energy Research, 2023)
This chapter analyzes whether Balochistan could become one of the export regions for green hydrogen
for the next decades37.
37
The study “Pakistan renewable hydrogen energy – Prefeasibility study” by ADB (October 2021) renders Pakistan a
low chance of participating in the green hydrogen export market. However, this judgement is based on a very general
qualitative analysis by stating that other countries are better suited in terms of VRE availability and proximity to
markets like the EU.

A considerable amount of analysis is currently being done on the potential and cost level for green
hydrogen generated in different countries. This is to identify countries likely be the most relevant
exporters for green hydrogen and what other countries might have to do to attain such a position as well.
Figure 66 shows that Balochistan is one of the most promising areas for exporting hydrogen in terms of
the availability of both wind and solar power. However, the map only accounts for generation costs, so
for the EU market, candidates like Spain and Morocco which might be connected through pipeline might
still achieve more competitive overall costs for green hydrogen for Europe. Others like Chile or some parts
of Australia also have excellent wind and solar resources.
Figure below illustrates hydrogen production cost from PV and Wind hybrids at a minimum load of 40%
by 2030 (estimate).
Figure 66: Hydrogen production cost from PV and Wind hybrids
Source: (IEA, 2022)
Figure 67 below depicts that, due to high transport costs of compressed hydrogen, ammonia is the most
feasible transport vector for larger distances as it shows higher re-conditioning costs but lower specific
transport costs. This also means that for larger distances, this conversion to ammonia is required in any
case and the cost implications of increasing the transport distance by a few more thousands of kilometers
are then of less relevance.

Figure 67: Estimated cost break-down for import of green hydrogen from different countries
Source: (Aurora Energy Research, 2023)
Overall, if Balochistan is to become an exporter of green hydrogen, the relative high distance to green
hydrogen markets like the EU as well as a challenging infrastructure environment within Balochistan
(remoteness, lack of general infrastructure, security issues) need to be offset. This could be achieved by a
very competitive VRE generation profile, present in regions like Chagai, as well as favorable financing
conditions – the latter being a crucial point in case of Pakistan. Being a country that is severely affected
by climate change as the floods in 2022 show, Pakistan might have a good chance to achieve specific
bilateral or multilateral financial and technical assistance from donor countries to implement such a large
infrastructure project under favorable terms.
4.3.2 Green ammonia plant for Balochistan
The following sections lay out how a potential green hydrogen plant could look like in Balochistan. Due to
the need for export, Gwadar is selected as the export port as it has the highest amount of infrastructure
and development in the province as well as an ambitious master plan for further development. Moreover,
the production of hydrogen necessitates substantial quantities of water, a resource that is limited in
Balochistan. However, one viable and socially as well as environmentally sustainable solution is the
extraction of water from seawater through desalination. As the green hydrogen needs to be generated

through solar and wind power only38 and as the economic viability of green hydrogen depends very much
on an excellent VRE generation profile, the corresponding generation plant should be located in the
Chagai region (see Chapter 4.1). The closer Panjgur area would be an alternative for the VRE site, with a
slightly less favorable VRE generation profile albeit less length of grid line required.
As the green hydrogen will have to be transported by ship to distant markets like the EU, green ammonia
will be the more cost-efficient transport vector, so the green hydrogen should be converted to ammonia
before being exported in vessels. The cost and technical parameters of such a sample plant are estimated
by using the freely available tool HySupply39.
This results in the following required infrastructure:
• a wind-solar hybrid plant in Chagai (or Panjgur)

• transmission lines for bringing the power to Gwadar
• an electrolyser plant close to Gwadar port, including a desalination plant
• a plant for synthesizing the ammonia on the same site (Haber-Bosch process)
• an ammonia export terminal at Gwadar port
4.3.3 Energy supply for green ammonia production
The energy for this sample plant would come from Chagai region. Specifics of such a plant have been laid
out in Chapter 4.1 Gigawatt hybrid park. For example, if a 7 GW plant is developed at Chagai, 1 GW of
this plant could be dedicated to the generation of green hydrogen at Gwadar.
For bringing the 1 GW of power to Gwadar, new transmission lines are needed. A 500 kV AC line40 from
Chagai to Gwadar is therefore required, with the addition of a 500 kV substation for dividing the line into
two segments and avoid stability issues. The 132/11kV Panjgur sub‐station would be a good site for the
500 kV substation to allow for further grid integration.
38
Other RE technologies are permissible but as they have to be built specifically for this purpose as per EU regulation
and have to be cheap to remain competitive, solar and wind are virtually the only ones that make sense for green
hydrogen at the moment – not only for Pakistan, but worldwide.
39
HySupply Ammonia Analysis Tool V1.0 by the University of New South Wales (UNSW), Australia. See
https://www.globh2e.org.au/.
40
A double-circuit QUAD bundle AAAC Greeley conductor would be recommended.

Figure 68: Proposed connection from Chagai VRE park to green ammonia plant in Gwadar
4.3.4 Sample green ammonia plant sizing and costing
Based on the input factors outlined earlier, a sample plant has been sized and simulated in a simplified
manner, utilizing the basic assumptions mentioned regarding its location.
The size of the plant chosen was 500,000 t of green ammonia per year, equivalent to roughly 150,000 t of
green hydrogen which would be equivalent to 1.5% of the estimated import amount of the EU for 2030
(see above). The corresponding VRE plant capacities are 1,000 MW of PV (one-axis tracking) and 750 MW
of wind. As the ammonia synthesis needs to run at a constant throughput level, a balancing power source
is also required (34 MW at maximum); for this, BESS or wheeling of Hydropower through a connection at
Gwadar was assumed. The total capital cost of the project (including power plant, transmission lines,
electrolyser, ammonia sensor synthesis and desalination) amounts to approximately 4 Bn USD.
The following charts and tables illustrate the input parameters, main results as well as a breakdown of the
capital cost and a breakdown of the levelized cost of the resulting green ammonia.
The resulting cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for the performed modelling amounts to 4.05 USD/kg, although
this depends strongly on the cost assumptions for electrolyser etc. and cannot be compared directly to

other studies. For reference, the IEA in its Hydrogen Outlook (IEA, 2022) states the LCOH range for green
hydrogen worldwide at 4 to 9 USD/kg for production via electrolysis with renewable electricity.
However, as these cost estimates are so sensitive to the technology cost assumptions of electrolysers as
well as the ammonia-synthesis plant for ammonia, that a direct comparison with LCOH estimates for other
locations from other studies does not make sense. Nevertheless, another approach can be taken for
benchmarking between countries: The single-most important cost factor, apart from more general factors
like finance costs, country risks etc., which typically accounts for 30-40% of the total LCOH is the cost of
RE electricity. This is for solar, and wind powered plants defined mostly through the available solar and
wind resources, more specifically the combined load factor of wind and solar that can be achieved in a
location. Based on this background, different locations worldwide can now be compared based on the
availability of wind and solar resource:
For example, while Chagai in Balochistan achieves load factors for solar PV and wind of 26% and 45%
respectively and combined 56%. The best sites in Morocco, close to West Sahara border, being another
promising green hydrogen candidate close to the EU market, achieve 30% and 54% respectively for PV
and wind power and can achieve a combined load factor with 20% less installed capacity. Assuming the
same cost assumptions for PV and wind CAPEX and OPEX in both countries, this difference in resource
translates into the LCOE of the combined PV-wind hybrid plant being 20% cheaper for Morocco. Assuming
LCOE constituting 33% of the final resulting LCOH as stated above, this means that hydrogen could be
generated in Morocco at 7% less cost, compared to Balochistan, based solely on the availability of
resource. This result will change if an alternate use of the else curtailed VRE electricity can be found. That
is the case for Chagai. However, a grid connection from Chagai to Gwadar will be additional cost.
On the other hand, a comparison with UAE which is another economy venturing into green hydrogen
export yields load factors of 34% bases on Solar PV only with comparable cost to Chagai, assuming same
financing conditions. As the lower load factor results in a lower non energy Capex efficiency. Assuming
the non-energy capex is around 33% of the total cost of green ammonia and the capex efficiency is 40%
lower the cost advantage of Chagai region would be some 13% over UAE.
It has to be considered that even if some locations are more economical in this analysis, their overall
potential might be limited, especially for wind which is often limited to certain corridors. Even if
Balochistan turns out to be more expensive than Morocco and Australia, for the worldwide green
hydrogen market to be developed, there could still be a scope for Pakistan.
Table 16: Salient Features of a sample green hydrogen plant

Key Input Summary
Parameter Unit Value
Ammonia Plant Capacity kTPA 500
Ammonia Plant Power Demand MW 23.40
Air Separation Unit Capacity TPD 1128

Air Separation Unit Power Demand MW 10.81
Hydrogen Output TPD 242.3
Nominal Electrolyser Capacity MW 1,010
Electrolyser System Oversizing % 100%
Generator Type Hybrid
Nominal Solar Farm Capacity MW 1,000
Nominal Wind Farm Capacity MW 750
Hybrid Generator Split % Solar 57%
% Wind 43%
Renewable Energy Plant Oversizing % 68%
Total Nominal Power Plant Capacity MW 1,751
Hydrogen Storage Capacity Kg 25,000
Key Results Summary

Parameter Unit Value
Average Power Plant Capacity Factor % 34%
Average Time Electrolyser is at Max Capacity % of 8760 hrs/yr 62%
Average Total Time Electrolyser is Operating hrs/yr 8760
Electrolyser Capacity Factor Achieved % 88%
Energy Consumed by Electrolyser MWh/yr 4,774,917
Energy Consumed by Ammonia/ASU Plant MWh/yr 271,651
Energy Used to Charge Battery MWh/yr 0
Time Ammonia Plant is at Max Capacity % of 8760 hrs/yr 99.98%
Ammonia Plant Annual Capacity Factor Achieved % 99%
Average Total Time Ammonia Plant is Operating hrs/yr 8760
Hydrogen Production TPA 148,545
Nitrogen Production TPA 411,408
Ammonia Production TPA 494,863
Excess Power Generated (Curtailed or sold to grid) MWh/yr 189,421
Levelized Cost of Hydrogen USD/kgH2 USD 4.05
Levelized Cost of Ammonia USD/kgNH3 USD 1.22
Typically, modern ammonia tanker ships can carry between 10,000 and 50,000 metric tons (MT) of
ammonia. A production facility of this size would require at least 9 transports per year.

The overall cost of ammonia can be decreased by considering the value of the curtailed electricity,
although this factor does not significantly impact the cost outcomes. In this scenario, approximately
190,000 MWh per year are not utilized by the plant and could potentially be sold to the grid at a rate of
0.05 USD/kWh. This would result in a reduction of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) by 0.06 USD/kg.
Table 17: Approximate capital cost breakdown for a 500 kTPA green ammonia plant
Component CAPEX
(MUSD)
Power Plant 1,566
Transmission 324
Grid Connection -
Grid Balanced 44
Electrolyser 1,578
H2 Storage 7
Ammonia Plant 296
ASU Plant 50
Indirect Costs 282
Additional Costs -
Total Capital Cost 4,147

Figure 69: Approximate capital cost breakdown for a 500 kTPA green ammonia plant
Table 18: Approximate levelized cost breakdown for a 500 kTPA green ammonia plant
LCONH3 (USD) LCOH (USD)
Power Plant CAPEX 0.27 0.90
Grid OPEX - -
Trans. CAPEX 0.06 0.19
Balance Tech CAPEX 0.01 0.03
Elec. CAPEX 0.27 0.91
H2 Stor CAPEX 0.00 0.00
Indirect Costs 0.05 0.16
NH3 CAPEX 0.05 0.17
ASU CAPEX 0.01 0.03
Power Plant OPEX 0.05 0.17
Balance Tech OPEX 0.26 0.88
Grid OPEX - -
Elec. OPEX 0.08 0.27
Others 0.10 0.34
Total 1.22 4.05

Figure 70: Approximate levelized cost breakdown for a 500 kTPA green ammonia plant
4.3.5 Conclusion
Balochistan has an excellent VRE potential which is the most important factor for cost-efficient generation
of green hydrogen.
A sample plant for green hydrogen has been described above; it would cover a plant of 1 GW solar and
750 MW wind in Chagai region, a high voltage line of 1 GW capacity and approximately 500km length
towards Gwadar and an electrolyser, desalination and ammonia synthesis plant in Gwadar. Total costs
would amount to about USD 4 bn; the plant would produce about 148,000 t of green hydrogen per year,
which would be converted to 494,000 t of green ammonia.

5 FINANCIAL AND ECONOMICAL EVALUATION
5.1 Financial evaluation
5.1.1 Utility scale
The least cost principle of the National Electricity Policy 2021 (MoE, Power Division, 2021) was set as prime
selection criteria for all new capacity additions. According to the results of the VRE Locational Study
(World Bank, 2021), it is anticipated that all photovoltaic (PV) plants implemented in Balochistan can
provide electricity at a 14% lower cost compared to any other province. The locational study examined
over 80 locations consistently, and although there have been slight changes in the assumptions regarding
cost and finance terms, the ranking of the sites remains unaffected. Therefore, until clarified through a
competitive bidding process, the relative results from the study can still be utilized in the current study.
Table 19: Approximated costs breakup

Capacity Sum of Weighted Weighted
PV PPA x average average
Capacity PPA PPA
Unit MWp Cts Cts/MW
Balochistan 2,516 11,836 4.70 4.70
KPK 280 1,740 6.22
Punjab 1,720 9,266 5.39 5.47
Sindh 2,930 15,946 5.44
Grand Total 7,446 38,789 5.21
Source: VRE locational study (World Bank, 2021).
Higher irradiation, less air pollution, and lower temperatures can contribute to higher expected output
for solar power plants. These factors can positively impact the efficiency and performance of solar panels,
resulting in increased electricity generation in Balochistan in comparison to other regions of Sindh and
Southern Punjab that have lower irradiance. The increased output would translate into lower expected
PPA cost for the same installed capacity considering same development, installation and operation cost
of the plants in all the provinces. Transportation costs for PV systems would be insignificant since the
components can be transported in small units. This allows for easy logistics and installation, regardless of
the region. Moreover, utility-scale solar plants are usually connected to the higher voltage grids, such as
the 220 kV grid, which minimizes expected losses during grid evacuation.

Figure 71: PV cost advantage Balochistan
Source: (World Bank, 2021)41
Balochistan has the highest DNI of Pakistan as presented in 1.5.3 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
technology information., making the region most favorable for CSP technology. Moreover, there are
selective locations viable for wind energy most of which are located in Balochistan. The wind corridor that
has been most extensively utilized thus far is Jhimpir in the Sindh region that offers better accessibility
but slightly lower wind resources.
41
The most cost attractive locations were all in Balochistan, 1 point of attractiveness score corresponds to 0.6 cts /
kWh expected cost. With an overall cost expectation of 4-6 cts / kWh a difference in attractiveness of 2 points results
in 20-30% expected cost difference

Figure 72: Wind cost advantage Balochistan
Source: (World Bank, 2021)
In conclusion, the feasibility for implementing 4.8 GWp of utility scale PV in Balochistan is given.
Balochistan has available land, sufficient local grid capacity, and export capacity. Additionally, the region's
characteristics, such as higher irradiation levels and potentially lower expected costs, make it an attractive
choice for PV projects. The least-cost sites in Balochistan can be shortlisted by NTDC and CPPA for
competitive bidding after conducting a comprehensive assessment of the potential sites. This would
involve evaluating factors such as solar resource potential, land availability, grid connectivity,
environmental considerations, and any other relevant criteria.
5.1.2 Mining
The actual demand for electricity in the region is expected to exceed the load forecasts as it would depend
on the utilization of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources by the mine operators. In the case studies
analyzing the feasibility and financial advantage of VRE as a fuel-saving instrument, a significant cost
advantage was determined. These case studies can be used as an example for majority of the mining sites
in Balochistan.
The case studies indicate potential savings of up to 65% in electricity supply costs for mining operations.
While the actual savings may be lower due to factors like the use of untaxed Iranian oil as fuel, the
introduction of PV can still result in substantial reductions in supply costs and address logistical challenges.

The use of PV with BESS can provide a stable and predictable source of electricity, mitigating the risks
associated with fuel price fluctuations and supply chain complexities.
5.1.3 Distributed PV
The current situation involves a financial loss of $340 million in 2022. This loss is projected to increase to
$492 million in 2028 at a low forecast of 5,472 GWh of electricity consumption. The purchase price of
electricity is given as $0.1 per kWh out of which QESCO is only recovering $0.01 per kWh against the
purchase price. The difference is attributed to two factors: subsidy provided to the farmers and non-
payments from the farmers.
If the recommendations provided in the Solar Water pumping feasibility study (NESPAK, 8p2, 2020) are
followed, the gross energy demand is expected to reduce by approximately 50%. This reduction would
result in an estimated demand of 2,792 GWh for the year 2028. The electricity saved through these
recommendations can be considered as virtually free, as it would not incur any additional costs.
Figure 73: Funding and usage analysis of agriculture feeders in Balochistan
Source: (NESPAK, 8p2, 2020)
The installation cost of a DG solution including energy efficient motors, pumps and the necessary control
equipment to ensure payment collection is 0.08 USD/kWh in PPA mode, which is higher than a utility scale
plants, but less expensive that grid supply.
Implementing this solution would reduce the current loss of 492 million USD to 195 million USD without
requiring any additional payments from the farmers.

The proposed solution improves the electricity supply significantly and reduces fuel and operation and
maintenance (O&M) costs, as well as any additional expenses borne by the farmers, by approximately
0.06 USD/kWh. This means that farmers would be able to cover the cost of the PV supply without being
financially worse off than today. The solution also offers precise monitoring of individual electricity usage
and the ability to remotely shut down the electricity supply in case of non-payment.
Summing up, the proposed DG solution offers a more cost-effective and reliable electricity supply while
providing opportunities for financial savings and improved control over energy usage.
5.1.4 GW Park
The proposed GW solution would provide electricity at competitive costs ranging from 6.5 to 8.2 cts per
kWh based on the 2023 cost framework. These cost savings would benefit the people of Pakistan by
providing more affordable electricity.
The table below shows that even with only 17.7% loading of a 4 GW HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current)
line, the costs of the proposed solution are comparable to larger hydropower project opportunities
offering significant cost savings (7.2 cts vs. 8 cts for hydro). At full utilization and a high-capacity factor,
the cost of supply, including the grid connection, would fall below 5.7 cts/kWh.
Table 20: Financial snapshot of GW Park opportunity

Economic Output 2 GW 4 GW 6 GW 7 GW 8 GW 9 GW
PV MWp 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Wind MW 1,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
Grid utilization % 18% 32% 52% 57% 61% 64%
Total Capex MUSD 3,220 4,964 7,506 7,965 8,529 9,094
Opex incl fuel MUSD/a 2,354 1,988 1,483 1,357 1,262 1,202
RE PPA + HVDC cts/kWh 8.24 7.10 6.66 6.46 6.50 6.66
NPV vs HPP CPPA MUSD 915 2,504 4,566 5,266 5,568 5,550
Any fully built-up cost below 6 cts/kWh will be of lower cost than an alternate HPP project opportunity.
Table 21: Comparison GW HPP and VRE

Criteria HPP VRE Hybrid Comment
Cost Medium Low
Time to market 6+ years 3 years, phasing
possible
Availability risk Medium in spring Low All HPP in country depend on the
same water inflow
Dispatchability In season Very low

Criteria HPP VRE Hybrid Comment
Cluster risk High Low All HPP in country depend on the
same seasonal water avalability
Environmental impact High Low VRE does not require large
resettlement
5.1.5 Export
Excess energy can be exported to other countries at a competitive price. In the case of CASA, the import
price is stated to be 6 cents/kWh, slightly lower than the 6.5 cents/kWh from the "GW opportunity".
Depending on the actual supply and demand situation in Pakistan, this may still be a valid option to
effectively swap the electricity ( purchases in summer and sell in winter) compared to an outright cash
out for electricity purchases in summer months only.
However, in case of export to Iran or the UAE, it is unlikely that the negotiated price will be financially
attractive. Iran does not have significant energy demand close to the border whereas the UAE has its own
resources, with PV power costing less than 3 cents/kWh and CSP costing around 7-8 cents/kWh.
5.1.6 Hydrogen
The case study reveals a potential cost advantage over some international locations for hydrogen
production. In addition, the global demand might exceed supply for the foreseeable future so that even
without cost leadership a healthy margin might be obtained.
5.2 Finance
The utility scale opportunities can be financed as any other RE project in Pakistan. Several developers are
involved in projects in Balochistan, and their main concern is not financing, but rather the allocation of
land and the initiation of a competitive bidding process. In order to ensure bankability, it is important for
the Government of Balochistan to participate in the project by providing land in exchange for equity. By
providing land, the government would become a stakeholder in the project and share the risks and
benefits associated with it. This would enhance the project’s bankability and attract further investment.
For DPV and mining projects, the credibility of the off taker is an important consideration. One option is
for the Government of Balochistan (GoB) to provide risk guarantees for the projects. This means that the
government would guarantee the off take of the power or minerals produced, ensuring that the
developers have a reliable purchaser for their output.
Another option is to encourage local consortia or investors to fund the projects. By involving local
stakeholders, such as businesses, organizations, or investors, in funding the projects, it not only increases
local participation but also improves the credibility of the off taker. Local consortia would have a vested
interest in the success of the projects and would be motivated to ensure efficient payment collection.

If the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) provides refinancing support to financial institutions, it can lower the
cost of borrowing and facilitate access to capital for the projects. This would encourage local equity
investment and make financing more accessible for developers.
Longer-term GW park or green hydrogen would require a consortium of large national players like PPL,
Engro Energy or Hubco with GoP and international technology providers. The financing should include the
necessary grid connections that would be a major part of the total cost. NTDC could pay back the grid
investment over time, thereby taking over the grid infrastructure from the investor.
Any savings in GHG emissions have not been factored into the analysis. A global market for GHG emissions
savings is expected to develop reducing the net cost further.
The GoB and GoP can indeed engage in lobbying efforts at international forums and development banks
to secure concessional finance for project opportunities in Balochistan. Lobbying at these forums can help
raise awareness about the investment potential and development needs of the region, attracting the
attention of international development institutions and financiers such as the World Bank, Asian
Development Bank, or other regional development institutions.

5.3 Economic evaluation
The detailed economic analysis revealed a significant impact of the potential VRE plants on Jobs and GDP
development in the province.
Local stakeholder perspective
The purchasing power of the local stakeholders improve from additional employment and CSR (corporate
social responsibility) benefits of the developers. A reliable and consistent electricity supply would have
several positive impacts on agricultural practices and the livelihoods of farmers in Balochistan. More than
15,000 direct jobs could be created in the longer term. Most of the jobs would be created close to sites.
In case of a GW Park in Rakshan this would create substantial job opportunities.
Figure 74: Direct job creation by 2033 by region
Total jobs created include indirect jobs creation. That includes all jobs created to support and the directly
employed people. Please see F.2 Impact on job creation or details.

Figure 75: Total jobs and compensation by scenario - cumulative
By prioritizing local hiring and implementing training initiatives, the development of renewable energy
projects in Balochistan in the next decade can directly contribute to the socio-economic development of
the region. It can provide long-term employment opportunities, skill development, and capacity building,
enabling local communities to actively participate and benefit from the growth of the renewable energy
sector.
Industry perspective
The development of renewable energy projects and the mining industry in Balochistan can bring
significant benefits to the industry itself and create various business opportunities for local construction
firms, mining companies, and developers.
The mining industry shall benefit especially from lower cost, income and construction orders. This can
substantially reduce electricity supply costs for the mining industry by approximately 30-50%, significantly
improving the profitability and competitiveness of mining operations in Balochistan.
By investing in training initiatives, local communities can gain the necessary skills to actively participate in
these industries, ensuring long-term sustainability and empowerment. Furthermore, local investments
and operations should be encouraged in the rollout phase of the DPV. By leveraging the potential for local
involvement, investment, and operation, the renewable energy and mining sectors in Balochistan can
create a positive impact on the local economy, job creation, and overall development. For details please
see ANNEX H: Financial and Economic Model .
Figure 76: Economic impact on local industry by scenario - cumulative

Balochistan perspective
The installation of up to 14 GW of VRE plants and Ammonia export facility can increase the GDP of
Balochistan by approximately 3 Bn USD / annum due to higher net export of electricity and more local
income spent in the province. This would be a significant increase from 8.3 billion USD GDP in 202142.
Figure 77: Economic impact on Province by scenario - cumulative
While the direct financial benefit to the province may not be in the form of direct revenue due to the
prevailing burden of circular debt borne by the GoP, the installation of VRE plants in Balochistan can bring
42
WB 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/country/pakistan

several indirect economic benefits, including job creation, reduced import dependency, potential
electricity exports, and increased local income. These factors can contribute to improved living standards,
economic growth, and regional development. Thus, the installation of 1.3 GW of VRE plants in Balochistan
would lead to a GDP growth of approximately 0.5 Bn USD/annum.
National electricity supply perspective
Balochistan, currently, faces the challenges in maintaining a stable electricity grid due to factors such as
load fluctuations, transmission losses, and inadequate infrastructure. Moreover, the cost recovery is low,
leading to increased financial losses and circular debt within the sector.
By focusing on VRE implementation, specifically DPV systems, the MoE power division, NTDC, and CPPA
can potentially address the challenges of grid stability, reduce circular debt, and leverage the cost
advantages of VRE in Balochistan's electricity supply. This would contribute to a more sustainable and
affordable energy sector in the region. In the “no VRE” base case scenario, the circular debt in
Balochistan's electricity supply is projected to increase by $492 million USD by 2028. However,
implementing 75% of the potential of DPV systems would reduce this loss to $105 million USD.
The constant production of electricity from various PV plants in the province can extend the lifetime of
gas supply from the Uch I&II plants. This is beneficial for the country as gas plants make a high penetration
of VRE possible. Extending the lifetime of the lowest cost gas plants in Pakistan would be an important
step.
The VRE potential in Balochistan, being the lowest-cost option in Pakistan, presents an opportunity to
leverage renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. With the better sites already planned
to be connected through the utility-scale program till 2028, further development of a gigawatt-scale VRE
park in Balochistan can offer a hedge against availability risks associated with a larger portfolio of
hydropower projects. This approach contributes to a diversified and reliable energy mix, reducing
dependence on specific energy sources and enhancing the overall sustainability of the electricity supply.

Figure 78: VRE capacity development by scenario - cumulative
Today, from a net importer of electricity Balochistan can totally become electricity independent soon.
Figure 79: Electricity balance of province by scenario - cumulative
Pakistan perspective
The people of other provinces of Pakistan will benefit from the cheapest supply of electricity reduction in
circular debt. The political leadership will benefit from an economic uplift in Balochistan reducing the
pressure of local independence movement and direct subsidies to the province.
This would also improve the standing of Pakistan as such in the financial community to end an
anachronistic subsidy regime to some 29,500 relatively wealthy farmers on the back of the whole country.

The political leadership will benefit from an economic uplift in Balochistan and international recognition,
especially from the IMF.
In the longer run electricity from Balochistan will reduce the cost of electricity for other provinces by more
than a Billion of USD and in addition electricity could be exported to central Asia and even Iran and
increase the foreign reserves of the whole country.
Figure 80: Pakistan view of province by scenario - cumulative
Financial market perspective
For the financial market, unlocking Baluchistan’s VRE potential would mean financing opportunities for
more than 14 Bn USD.
Figure 81: Lender’s view of province by scenario - cumulative

Provided a secure off-take arrangement and security package, the financial market will take an interest in
financing the projects on competitive terms. As the off taker will be CPPA, the same considerations shall
apply as for other VRE plants in other provinces. A beneficial approach would involve the province holding
an equity stake to ensure long-term commitment and address potential challenges for each project's
success and security. Development banks are likely to take the lead in financing the first few projects.
Once a successful model has been established, commercial institutions may participate, potentially with
support from the State Bank of Pakistan or development agencies through low-interest refinancing.
Global perspective
Globally all people will benefit from installations of VRE reducing global CO2 emissions. In addition, the
creation of jobs will start closing the wide gap in economic development making Balochistan a less volatile
place on the globe.
Figure 82: World view of GHG emissions reduction by scenario

6 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
6.1 Conclusion
Based on the analysis conducted in 2020 and for this study, it is clear that the high solar resources in
Balochistan make PV the most economical, quickest and lowest-risk power generation technology in the
province – with the addition of Chagai, where wind can play an important role.
When sized professionally, PV in Balochistan can achieve line utilization factors up to 40% and its supply
profile correlates in a positive way with the demand profile.
In cases where dispatchable power for evening and night load or for grid stabilization is required, CSP has
a potential cost advantage. However, the uncertainty of expected cost made it very difficult to establish
a solid baseline. Even active developers were not willing or able to share their assumptions. A combination
of PV and BESS might be a cost-effective alternative unless the generated heat of the CSP process can be
used for additional purposes.
Utility-scale solar or wind plants connected to the existing grid are a clear opportunity which could be
exploited on priority basis up to 4.8 GW immediately based on an opportunity and grid perspective.
PV and wind, possibly in combination with CSP or BESS and with fossil plants as backup, to supply
electricity to mining industry are a very good opportunity for every mine in the province. Electricity cost
can be reduced by about 30-70% compared to HFO, depending on the situation.
DPV can contribute approximately 1.3 GWp and improve the power quality as significantly reduce line
losses.
A longer-term 7 GW park in Balochistan will be very beneficial for the region in particular and for Pakistan
as a whole. Any potential surplus can reduce he import bill of electricity, especially from central Asia. The
relatively low-cost energy can be utilized to enable the export (and use) of green hydrogen.
Table 22: Economic impact of options including distributed generation

Setting: Unit Zero Utility CSP Mining DPV for GW Green
Low Demand VRE scale farmers Park Hydrogen
Year 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 2033 2033
Bal. RE Electr. Prod. GWh/a 0 10,942 11,978 13,646 15,701 44,522 44,522
Bal. Electricity Imp. GWh/a 3,896 1,491 1,078 1,235 402 0 0
Bal. Electricity Exp. GWh/a 2,850 11,177 11,800 11,869 13,845 37,446 34,459
Bal. Dev profit MUSD/a 0 25 30 35 44 135 135
Bal. Industry profit MUSD/a 0 0 0 138 138 342 393

Setting: Unit Zero Utility CSP Mining DPV for GW Green
Low Demand VRE scale farmers Park Hydrogen
Year 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 2033 2033
Bal. Jobs income MUSD/a 0 35 39 44 63 101 108
CPPA value MUSD/a 0 149 152 161 338 936 839
Balochistan GDP MUSD/a 0 833 918 942 1,239 2,860 3,469
New RE Jobs #/a 0 8,809 9,773 11,097 15,707 25,340 27,040
GHG reductions Mt/a 0 7,660 8,385 9,552 10,991 31,165 31,165
Capex MUSD 0 3,085 3,993 4,485 5,792 13,944 15,944
Please see ANNEX H: Financial and Economic Model for details.
For implementation large corporations like Engro Energy, Hubco, Pakistan Petroleum or K-Electric, which
already have presences in Balochistan, are ready to get engaged with the province and 3rd party
technology providers to realize the potential.
6.2 Recommended actions

6.2.1 Utility scale
The main bottlenecks identified are clear targets and responsibility for developing projects and land
allocations in reasonable timeframe for identified opportunities.
A dedicated project management from the province, at the highest level to ensure provincial political
support, especially land allocation. Special consideration from AEDB for tendering and NTDC for approving
its interconnection readiness are also essential.
Following three actions are recommended.
Project responsibility
It has been decided that BECL will be the focal point of the province to facilitate the development of RE
plants. BECL would need to get clear objectives and resources to do this.
Objectives could be
• MW of opportunities prepared ready for tendering as per the recommendations of this study
• a clear service offer to developers regarding:
o equity for land,
o standard contracts preferably on BOOT concept so that the plants become 100% owned
by BECL after 25 years
o infrastructure development support based on local knowledge and experience

o security offer based on local knowledge and experience
o definition of a standard CSR requirement
o support on the regulatory and grid connection process
• active search and selection of developers to team up with
The resources required for successful implementation
• Manpower to follow up which is already in place and only needs to be channelized

• Inter departmental coordination and support to deliver on the objectives
• Some budget for travel and necessary studies to get pre-feasibilities and interconnection studies
done for all the identified sites once land is allocated
Political support in Balochistan
BECL would need to get support and backing from the highest level in the Province.
• The province needs to back up BECLs mandate wholeheartedly

• All project opportunities would require earmarked land which has been lacking in the past
• Local employment should be encouraged through quota system. Compensation rules should be
developed, and security guarantees given
• Key discussions and agreements with MoE power division and other federal institutions need to
be held regularly
• A monthly review process should be implemented to identify gaps and monitor progress
Institutional support
AEDB and NTDC should support the opportunity to get the maximum clean electricity into the national
basket.
NTDC: Approval of the plants identified in this study would be required. The check of grid interconnection
readiness can be done in-house.
AEDB: The opportunity can be taken up for competitive bidding once the specifics are finalized. The
bidding should focus on maximum energy to be delivered into the grid (AC requirement) rather than a
fixed DC size to get lowest cost with highest line capacity factor.
6.2.2 Mining
The requirements and advantages vary for each individual mine. It is recommended that each mine
operator independently conducts a feasibility study and collaborates with developers to implement the
necessary measures for achieving savings.

In case a grid expansion is beneficial, and the mining operator is ready to finance its cost, QESCO should
be willing to implement. In addition QESCO would gain customers and can purchase any surplus energy
from the mine at low cost. BECL and the department of mining could promote the use of VRE and
distribute the attached sample pre-feasibilities to serve as baseline.
Realization of a pilot project at the Reko Diq site could be a tremendous marketing opportunity and should
be facilitated at highest level in the province. Pakistan Petroleum is a shareholder of the Reko Diq project
and would be ready to get engaged.
6.2.3 DPV
A program of DPV with added measures should be promoted to reduce ca. 500 MUSD annual losses and
subsidies to 29,500 farmers by 2028.
Three interventions are suggested to move forward: A DPV program would need a dedicated impetus
from the provincial leadership to address the problem, provincial project management for
implementation and maximum support form MoE power division to end the circular debt cycle.
Political decision in Balochistan
The provincial leadership would need to decide to tackle the problem and mandate energy secretariate /
BECL to develop a pilot model for implementation as a first step:
• The province needs to decide on the priority of solving the problem.

• The province needs to select some pilot feeders.
• The province needs to establish a project manager with clear objectives backed by senior leaders
of the province.
• The province shall ask interested financial institutions to fund the pilot projects
• Key discussions and agreements with MoE power division and other federal institutions need to
be followed up regularly.
• A monthly review process should be implemented to identify needed support and progress
Project responsibility
BECL would be well positioned to become the project management unit (PMU) for implementing the pilot
projects and to formulate a roll out strategy. BECL may be mandated with clear objectives and provide
adequate resources to do this.
BECL or Project Management Unit could be made responsible for executing the pilot projects and
formulating a comprehensive rollout strategy. To ensure successful implementation, BECL should be
mandated with well-defined objectives and provide sufficient resources to do this.
Objectives should be:

• Preparing initial documentation on feeder selection and farmers consent and request for funds
• a clear structure how to implement pilots based on already conducted feasibility study.
• team up with selected developers
Resources needed are
• the manpower to follow up, which is already in place and only needs to be channelized.
• Interdepartmental coordination and support to deliver on the objectives.
• budget for travel and studies to facilitate financing process of pilots.
National support
MoE power division should request and support GoB to develop a structure which ends the effective
subsidy regime. The role of QESCO as a national entity should be reduced to supply power to the 132 kV
grid stations and provide maintenance service on the 11 kV feeders only. Billing should be done in bulk
for the annual net feeder consumption to an independent feeder operator responsible to maintain the
DPV and power management on the line. This is in accordance with proposed federal initiatives which
promote DPV on 11 kV lines and contract out billing on feeders (MoE power division, 2022) and MoE
power division.
At this point in time only two items need to be implemented: The potential cost and output of the park
should be evaluated in the longer-term planning (IGCEP) on regular basis and a comprehensive feasibility
study on the park development should be initiated.
Once the overall decision is taken a park management facility within BECL or another entity can be
established which can structure the Park development according to electricity demand forecast and
tender out parts over time to IPPs
6.2.4 GW opportunity
The GW opportunity mainly requires a high-level agreement to be followed up with inclusion in IGCEP and
a masterplan development.
IGCEP
The park in its phases should be modeled for the IGECP to understand the overall evaluation in long term
national concept better. This should include the export option for the CASA line and eventually Iran as
well.
Masterplan development

A comprehensive masterplan / feasibility study to determine location, bankable wind resource and
stagewise grid connections cost would be essential to reduce the uncertainty of the assumptions made in
this study.
• Wind resource is only available for Chagai which is in private hands. For other potential locations
in Panjgur and Turbat suitable areas for wind should be identified and Wind measurements should
also be conducted.
• A strategy to connect the site to the national grid to reduce high grid connection cost in the initial
growth phase of about 2-5 years of the project should be established.
• Cost and employment assumptions as well as provision of housing and other infrastructure for
GW scale park need to be verified in more detail.
• Park management and provision of provincial services to facilitate developers and financing
institutions should be ensured.
• Either GoB or AEDB should take the lead in initiating such a feasibility study.
6.2.5 Export
Exporting Electricity via existing lines to central Asia and Iran should become a national target.
Especially in the case of central Asia, there should be an excellent case for a seasonal exchange of
electricity.
• CPPA should take up the discussion with relevant counterparts in central Asia and Iran.
• [further recommendations by WB team, esp. Dima on CASA project perspectives]
6.2.6 Green Hydrogen / Ammonia
Green hydrogen / Ammonia could likely be produced at competitive terms. There are a number of
larger local corporations, like Engro Energy, Hubco, Pakistan Petroleum, which should be mobilized to
reach out for international technology providers to explore the opportunities in detail.
MoE has already expressed it interest in such a motion, BED should follow up regularly and offer its
support.
• Detailed feasibility required if GoP/GoB wants to go ahead with the project

• For successful market entry, bilateral linkage with import markets will likely be required on
political level (e.g. EU, Germany) to ensure financing as well as guaranteed off-take of green
hydrogen / ammonia – establish a strategic partnership (e.g. BMZ Germany - GoP) to do a
feasibility, then pilot plant, then scale up
• [further recommendations by H2 experts of WB team]

7 REFERENCES
[Use endnotes for references with inline citations as per the WBG Style Guide]
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ANNEX A: CASE STUDIES - UTILITY SCALE
OPPORTUNITIES
Separate Document

ANNEX B: CASE STUDY FOR MINING
Separate Document

ANNEX C: CASE STUDY GW PARK
Separate Document

ANNEX D: DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
Separate Document

ANNEX E: CSP TECHNOLOGY
E.1 CSP technology cost
CSP as technology for power generation has been existing since many decades now, with the first wave
towards commercialization from 2010 and another renewed interest in recent years as a source of base
load power for countries with high solar irradiation (e.g. Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Chile). Up to now, the
global market of CSP is relatively small with around 6 GW of installed power, compared to PV technology
which has installed power of 600 MW.
CSP technology comes in different setups as described in chapter 1.5.3 and involves a number of different
specialized components. As a result, the CSP market today is much less developed and standardized
compared to other renewable energy technologies. This means that the numbers available on technology
costs in commercial plants are limited and therefore have a much higher variation and uncertainty
compared to more established technologies.
The World Bank, together with IRENA, recently published a report called “Concentrated Solar Power –
Clean Power on Demand 24/7” (World Bank, 2021), bringing together recent market information and
insights on cost and technology for CSP. The following chart is taken from this analysis. The blue lines
show the calculated LCOE of worldwide projects, based on data available with IRENA internally, while the
red lines show the results of PPAs (power purchase agreements) which have been made public. The chart
shows clearly:
• CSP is the most expensive RE technology on a per-unit basis (LCOE) among the four technologies
shown. This cost difference is much less for the public PPA prices (red line). However, this data is,
for CSP, only based on a couple of sites under very specific conditions (for example: excellent solar
resource, very large plant sizes of several hundred megawatts and very favorable financing
conditions like in Dubai (Noor I) which was the reference for the 7.5 cts/kWh). For the “LCOE
database” (blue line), CSP costs are more than double (18.2 cts/kWh).
• The uncertainty in LCOE numbers (light color in the background) is quite high for CSP, reflecting
the still developing market and comparatively low number of projects worldwide under very
different conditions, leading to higher variation in costs..

Figure 83: Development of cost levels for different RE technologies
Source: IRENA (2020).43
Important findings from the same report are:
• The chart shows a high difference in LCOE between “IRENA LCOE database” (currently at USD
0.182/kWh) and “IRENA auction database” (based on the Noor 1 park in Dubai, located in the
same region, about 1,500 km away from the sites in question, which has achieved a tariff of only
7.3 cts/kWh for CSP – however, at excellent financial conditions and a 35 years PPA which is above
the typical 20-25 years’ time period).
• CSP as base load: The average capacity factor (i.e. the ratio of operational hours and total hours
of the year) of CSP plants worldwide increased to 45% in 2019 (compared to e.g. below 20% for
PV). A capacity factor of CPS is 45%, which seems low when compared to fossil thermal plants
with 90% and above but higher than the PV and wind technology. The capacity factor for CSP is
further increasing for the new plants being built.
43
The thick lines are the global weighted average LCOE, or auction values, by year. The grey bands, which vary by
year, are the cost/price range for the fifth and 95th percentiles of projects. For the LCOE data, real weighted average
cost of capital is 7.5% for China and members of the OECD and 10% for the rest of the world. The gray band that
crosses the entire chart represents the fossil fuel fired power generation cost range. CSP: concentrating solar power;
LCOE: levelized cost of electricity; PPA: power purchase agreement. The prices are quoted in nominal terms.

• Typical storage hours in the past were between 3 to 8 hours, while the average of the eight plants
mentioned in the report as “under construction” is of almost 12 hours, indicating a strong trend
towards higher storage and longer daily operation.
Due to their experience and the global reach of World Bank and IRENA, numbers quoted in the said report
can be assumed as a safe baseline for this analysis.
E.2 Site selection

Local conditions play an important role for all kinds of energy technologies but more so for RE and
specifically for CSP. Solar irradiation in Balochistan as a whole is quite high (i.e., GHI for PV: around 2,200
kWh/m² p.a.44). Direct solar irradiation (DNI) as the relevant resource for CSP technology is excellent with
values of up to 2,500 kWh/m² per annum. CSP projects have been implemented at DNI levels of 2,000
kWh/m² (e.g., Dubai), so 2,500 can be considered as an excellent irradiation level.
44
www.globalsolaratlas.info

Figure 84: DNI in Balochistan
Source: www.globalsolaratlas.info
A concern for CSP development is the higher uncertainty of DNI data compared to GHI. DNI, contrary to
GHI, only considers the irradiation coming directly from the sun and therefore depends on a clear sky.
This means that satellite-derived DNI data (as the one shown in the figure) is much less reliable than
ground-measured data. Hence, it is an industry standard to measure local DNI data for at least one year
through a specialized weather station on the ground before designing a CSP plant for that location. Such
local ground measurement would be required prior to open CSP tender.
E.3 Environmental impact of CSP

CSP plants, as for any other energy plant or large infrastructure projects, have certain impacts on the
environment. Although the impact of CSP plant on climate in terms of GHG emissions is very small
compared to fossil fuels and their impact on air and water are not comparable to those of coal plants.
However, the following impacts that do exist should be considered.
The most important categories of impact of CSP technology are as follows:

Water usage: CSP plants mostly run on thermal steam turbine cycles, which means that they need a
continuous re-cooling of the turbine cycle, which is most efficiently done through wet cooling. However,
where freshwater is scarce (as it is the case in Balochistan and most areas where CSP plants are built), dry
cooling is the better option, although coming with some cost on the plant efficiency .
From the CSP Water Study (U.S. Department of Energy, 2007), the following can be derived (and similar
values are found elsewhere in literature): CSP parabolic trough technology has about 500-800 gallons
(2,300-3,500 liter) of water usage per MWh for wet (recirculation) cooling, while this reduces to 10%, i.e.
about 350 l per MWh, for dry cooling (at a certain performance and cost penalty).
Land use and visual impact: Every infrastructure installation has a certain land use and corresponding
visual impact. The land usage for the total of a CSP plant is, converted to per-MWh values, larger than that
for wind and fossil fuels, but comparable or less than that for PV. This aspect is, however, of little relevance
for Balochistan where lots of empty land is available in the areas in question.
Energy and materials usage: Life-cycle assessments of CSP power show that the cumulative primary
energy invested in construction and operation of a plant over its lifetime is gained back as generated
renewable power in less than one year, whereas a CSP plant can last for 30 years or more. This gives an
“energy return on investment” (EROI) of about 30, which is excellent.
On the construction material side for construction, the requirements for CSP are much higher than for
coal or gas, which is understandable, given than the material-intensive solar collector field of CSP is a
completely additional component compared to fossil plants which run on fuel as their source of energy.
However, the materials used for CSP are mostly concrete, steel and glass, posing no environmental hazard.
Emissions: GHG emissions of CSP plants are much lower than for fossil fuels, obviously, and stem mostly
from the life-cycle analysis (the mentioned construction as well as maintenance). Additionally, there are
some minor emissions like e.g. nitrous oxide (N2O) for the life-cycle analysis of salt storage which are
again negligible compared to fossil plants.
Flora and fauna: Similar to other power plants, CSP plants can theoretically interfere with migration of
birds or other animals; however, this is rare and a rather negligible effect. Direct damage of birds (e.g.
burning through concentrated sunlight) seldom happens; definitely less than e.g. bird or bat damage
through wind power plants.
So overall, the most important impacts of CSP plants for Balochistan are its water usage as well as its
material consumption (as well as required logistical infrastructure development) for construction.

ANNEX F: SOCIO – ECONOMIC IMPACT
F.1 Overview
Regarding the socio-economic impacts the following aspects were assessed:
• Impact on job creation

• Impact of increased employment on Balochistan’s GDP
• Impact of decreased imports / increased exports on Balochistan’s GDP
The impact on job creation was assessed according to the (World Bank, 2022) methodology. The newly
created jobs (direct- indirect) in onshore wind and solar PV (grid scale) in three development phases
(Development & Pre-construction, Construction and Operation & Maintenance) were estimated.
The impact of increased employment on GDP aims at measuring the income effect on GDP caused by the
newly created jobs (permanent). For that, the multiplier estimated by (Shaikh, Shah, & Shah, 2015) will
be employed. In that way the effect on local and regional GDP caused by the number of newly created
jobs and consequently the average yearly wage is estimated.
The impact on new RE investments on GDP is based on the estimation of Gross Value Added (GVA) of the
RE investment, which mainly the difference between total revenues and intermediate consumption. The
methodology is primarily based on (UN, 2019) and (EWEA, 2012). On the one hand, total revenues are
calculated based on the price of electricity generated by the plant and the amount of electricity produced
by the plant over a given period of time. On the other hand, intermediate consumption is the cost of each
item used in the production process. More specifically, Intermediate consumption includes the OPEX of
the RE plant, while part of the CAPEX is also included.

F.2 Impact on job creation
Beyond the preliminary calculation regarding the RE deployment in the Baluchistan region, it would be
important to underline the socio-economic impact of that RE uptake. For that reason, the impact of job
creation will be described. The calculations included in the file are based on the methodology provided
by the (World Bank, 2022).
World Bank (2022) described a comprehensive methodology to assess the expected job creation triggered
by two specific policies: the ambitious national Renewable Energy (RE) targets under a new RE policy
announced in 2020 and the Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2021–2030 (IGCEP 2021–
2030) prepared by the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC).
This study adopted the methodology. The first step is to look into the Renewable Energy Employment
Factors provided by the World Bank in order to calculate the direct jobs created due to RE development.
Table 23: Renewable Energy Employment Factors

Develop Skilled Semi- Constr- Skilled Semi- (O&M) Skilled Semi-
ment (%) skilled/ uction (%) skilled/ (%) skilled/
and Pre- Unskilled Unskilled Unskilled
construc (%) (%) (%)
tion
MY/ MY/ MY/
MW MW MW/a
Wind 1.2 14% 86% 2.5 83% 17 17 15 85%
(Onshore)
Solar PV 0.2 100% 5.5 6% 94 0.8 29 71%
(utility
Scale)
Source: (World Bank, 2022)
This study used the employment factors of Wind (onshore) and Solar PV (utility scale).
For GW scale 50% of the O&M resources was assumed as high economies of scale can be expected.
DPV Job factor is assumed to be 50% higher than in the utility scale category. Development and pre-
construction are not considered. .
Wind construction time is 2 years and PV construction time is 1 year and this will also be adopted in the
report. The results will be expressed in full-time equivalent (FTE) job-years per GW. To smooth the impact
of construction time spikes the construction induced jobs are divided on 20 years plant lifetime.

Apart from the direct impact on job creation, the estimation of the indirect impact will be calculated.
Indirect jobs are defined as employment in companies providing inputs to the RE development, e.g., jobs
created in the steel sector (World Bank, 2022). Indirect jobs are estimated as 70% of direct jobs (Rutovitz
& Harris, 2012).
As it was mentioned above, the distinction between temporary and permanent jobs is:
• Temporary- development and pre-construction and construction

• Permanent- O&M
The distinctions between skilled & semiskilled/ unskilled was based on NRDC and CEEW (CEEW & NRDC,
2014b; CEEW & NRDC, 2014a)) and (World Bank, 2022). Skilled workers are defined as individuals that
have a degree or technical diploma qualification, while semiskilled/ unskilled workers have vocational
qualification or on-the-job training in low to moderate skills (World Bank, 2022). More specifically, for PV,
the estimations of (CEEW & NRDC, 2014b)for PV plants above 25 MW were adopted.
F.3 Impact of increased employment on GDP

Gross Domestic Product is defined as the value of total number of goods and services produced inside a
country in a given period of time. This relationship can be shown through following mathematical
equation (Mankiw, 2020) :
𝐺𝐷𝑃 = 𝐶 + 𝐼 + 𝐺 + 𝑁𝑋 (1)
Where,
C = Consumption
I = Investment
G = Government Spending
NX = Net Exports (Exports – Imports)
Here, consumption is the sum of expenditures by households on all goods (durable goods, nondurable
goods) and services. Investment is the sum total of all private expenditures on capital equipment, tools,
inventories, and structures. Government expenditure is the sum total of expenditures on purchases of
goods and services by public sector. Net export is the difference between are the earnings from exports
minus payment for imports.
As part of the GDP, this chapter will focus on consumption and more specifically Household Final
Consumption i.e., the sum of expenditures by households. Main aim is to show how the income by the
newly created have an impact on local and regional GDP.
shows clearly that Household Final Consumption is always a substantial part of GDP. Based on that,
(Shaikh, Shah, & Shah, 2015)estimated the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) in Pakistan for the
period 1985-2011. MPC is defined as the rate of change in consumption due to the one-unit change in the

income. The estimation of MPC was the first step to calculate the multiplier, which is the following
(Dorbusch & Fischer, 2017) :
𝑀𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑟 = 1/ 1 − 𝑀𝑃𝐶
The multiplier estimates the changes in the GDP as the consumption changes by one unit (Shaikh, Shah,
& Shah, 2015).
The multiplier will be used in order to assess the effect of increased income in the local and regional
economy in Baluchistan. The rationale is that the RE deployment in the region will lead to new jobs and
therefore to increased income. This new income will be spent primarily in the local and regional economy
(as the MPC shows). However, this new income will have multiple effects as a chain reaction of the
increased consumption due to newly generated income on the local and regional economy and to GDP.
The multiplier aims assessing this aggregate effect of the increased income due to new jobs on the local
and regional economy and to GDP.
Figure 85: Household consumption in Pakistan
(% of GDP) during the period 2000-2021.
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD.ZG?locations=PK.
One main assumption for the calculation of the aggregate and sustainable impact on GDP due to new jobs
is that only permanent jobs will be assessed. The permanent residents are expected to consume their
income within the region of Baluchistan. In contrast, temporary workers may come from other regions of
Pakistan, therefore their salary will be expected to be consumed not only in Baluchistan but also in other
regions. Additionally, temporary workers are not expected to stay in Baluchistan, once their work contract
is terminated, so the impact on regional GDP will be temporary. Further assumptions are presented in
Table 24.

Table 24: Assumptions on the estimation of GDP impact by new jobs
Assumptions Source This study Reason

PKR/a
Minimum monthly 25,000 PKR https://paycheck.pk/salary/ 80,000 inflation

wage for unskilled minimum-wages/162-
workers in balochistan
Balochistan
Monthly wage for 70,400 PKR http://www.salaryexplorer.c 120,000 inflation

skilled workers in om/salary-
Balochistan (median survey.php?loc=164&loctype
salary) =1
MPC 0,821 (Shaikh, Shah, & Shah, 2015)
Multiplier 5.587 (Shaikh, Shah, & Shah, 2015)
The calculation equation is the following:
𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑡 = [(𝑊𝑢𝑛𝑠𝑘𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 ∗ 𝑁𝑢𝑛𝑠𝑘𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑) + (𝑊𝑠𝑘𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 ∗ 𝑁𝑠𝑘𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑)] ∗ 𝑀𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑟 (2)
Where,
Wunskilled= Yearly wage of unskilled worker
Nunskilled= Total number of new unskilled worker
Wskilled= Yearly wage of skilled worker
Nskilled= Total number of new skilled worker
Multiplier= 5.587
Based on the equation, a primary assessment of the contribution of newly created jobs due to increased
VRE plant installation and operations on GDP was used.

ANNEX G: SHYDROGEN MODEL
HySupply is a collaboration between Germany and Australia to investigate the feasibility of exporting
renewable energy in the form of hydrogen from Australia to Germany and identify how this partnership
can be facilitated. For Australia, the consortium is led by UNSW Sydney and is funded by the Department
of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources
(DISER). More details can be found in https://www.globh2e.org.au/hysupply. (R. Daiyan, 2022)
As part of the feasibility study, HySupply Australia is developing a series of open-source and open-access
costing tools to assess the viability of this supply chain. These open-source tools will be released as an
asset of the HySupply project with the intent to iteratively improve existing functionalities and data sets
to provide holistic, high-level, pre-feasibility assessments for possible hydrogen projects, as we build
towards a complete value chain assessment tool.
The HySupply Ammonia Analysis Tool is being released for further consultation with stakeholders, to
facilitate discussion regarding the development of an Australia-Germany green hydrogen/ green ammonia
supply chain.
Table 25 Inputs for HySupply

Target output of green NH3 per year 1 Mt per year
Ratio between wind and PV for generation (e.g.
50 : 50
50 : 50)
Balancing technology for NH3 synthesis Grid
Storage size H2 500 t (approx. 14 hours)
Oversizing of VRE plants against electrolyser 140%
Oversizing of electrolyser against ammonia plant 120%
Cost PV (1-axis tracked) (CAPEX/OPEX) 680 USD/kWp / 10 USD/kWp p.a.
Annual capacity factor PV (1-axis tracked) 26.4%
Cost wind (CAPEX/OPEX) 1,180 USD/kWp / 20 USD/kWp p.a.
Annual capacity factor wind 44.5%
Cost electrolyser (CAPEX/OPEX) 1,675 USD / kW / 2.5% of CAPEX p.a.
Cost ammonia synthesis (Haber-Bosch)
536 USD/tNH3 p.a. / 670 USD/tNH3
(CAPEX/OPEX)
Table 26 Outputs of HySupply

Levelized costs of H2, NH3 (LCOH, LCO-NH3) See charts in chapter
CAPEX breakdown, LCOH/NH3 breakdown See charts in chapter
Electrolyser capacity factor of whole year 82%
Ammonia plant capacity factor of whole year 100%

ANNEX H: FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC MODEL
H.1 Project opportunity evaluation model
The project opportunity evaluation model used for this analysis is an excel based cash flow model. It was
initially developed by the 8.2 group since 2010 and adapted for various countries. It is based on an hourly
energy production simulation over one complete example year (8,760 hours). For every hour, input
parameters for a specific site are determined such as ambient temperature, solar power output, wind
power output etc., in this case mostly from the Global Solar Atlas and the Global Wind Atlas45 and from
the grid analysis performed in the former chapter, and based on these parameters, secondary values are
calculated such as net generation by the power plant. This tool has been used to calculate technical and
financial results for the whole year including capacity factor, generation pattern and expected PPA of the
plants for CPPA/GoP on the country level. The same tool has been used in the VRE Locational Study
Pakistan (World Bank, 2021).
The PV plants are assumed to be on 1-axis trackers as that is the lowest expected cost of electricity in
Pakistan for utility scale PV plants. The sizing for the PV plants were done to maximise the grid evacuation
capacity at minimal curtailment. This was an average factor of grid evacuation capacity in AC MW x 1.3 =
DC MWp nameplate of the plant.
It is assumed that Pakistan will be able to monetize on its effort to invest into clean energy through
international emissions trading which is expected to pick up momentum. The value of emission reduction
is not considered in the financial evaluation of this study but is considered as an enormous additional
benefit.
H.2 Financial Assumptions

The financial model for all project opportunities assumes a PPA contract between the developer and CPPA
according to competitive bidding guidelines (World Bank, 2022).
In the financial model the expected CAPEX and OPEX for every site has been estimated. It is assumed that
the developer would strive for an 18% ROI for 25% equity. The remaining 75% debt would be provided for
15 years at 80% for 8% interest from international sources and 20% of the debt would be provided locally
for 20% interest. In an alternative case the debt was provided at 6% interest. This might be valid for
preferential loans from development banks or in Government to Government mode. The model is in USD
assuming a fixed PKR/USD exchange rate of 300 with 4% annual inflation.
45
https://globalwindatlas.info/, https://globalsolaratlas.info/

H.3 Capex and Opex Assumptions
All VRE plants are simulated using same cost assumptions considering economies of scale for larger plants.
Table 27: Category cost assumptions for PV

Category Unit Value Comment
Modules USD/Wp 0.20
Inverter USD/Wp 0.03
Tracker USD/Wp 0.09
Installation USD/Wp 0.11
Civil USD/Wp 0.04
Transformer USD/Wp 0.08
Land USD/Wp 0.02
PM & EPC USD/Wp 0.10
Total USD/Wp 0.67
Capex Fix % 15
Capex dependent on Size % 85
Opex - annual USD/Wp/a 0.01
Table 28: System size CAPEX assumptions for PV

System size Unit Value Comment
50 MWp USD/Wp 0.77
100 MWp USD/Wp 0.67
150 MWp USD/Wp 0.64
200 MWp USD/Wp 0.62
300 MWp USD/Wp 0.60
500 MWp USD/Wp 0.59
1000 MWp USD/Wp 0.58
Table 29: Category cost assumptions for Wind

Category Unit Value Comment
WTG USD/W 0.90
Converter USD/W 0.03
Foundation USD/W 0.08
Installation USD/W 0.10
Civil USD/W 0.04
Transformer USD/W 0.08

Land USD/W 0.04
PM & EPC USD/W 0.10
Total USD/W 1.37
Capex Fix % 15
Capex dependent on Size % 85
Opex - annual USD/W/a 0.02
Table 30: System size CAPEX assumptions for Wind

System size Unit Value Comment
50 MW USD/W 1.57
100 MW USD/W 1.37
150 MW USD/W 1.30
200 MW USD/W 1.27
300 MW USD/W 1.23
500 MW USD/W 1.20
1000 MW USD/W 1.18

H.4 Economic assumptions
Following economic assumptions have been used in the Supply-Demand model for determination of
impact on GDP and provincial value creation.
Table 31: Economic Assumptions summary

Item Unit Value Comment
Exchange Rate PKR/USD 300 As per April 2023
Financial Assumptions see Annex A Financial assumptions
Uch I and II, cost USD/kWh 0.03 SIR, (NEPRA, 2022)
PPA PV, utility scale USD/kWh 0.04 – own simulations,
0.05
PPA DPV, tube wells USD/kWh 0.080 own simulations
PPA Wind USD/kWh 0.045 own simulations
PPA CSP (night) USD/kWh 0.100 Literature, adaptation
PPA PV + BESS USD/kWh 0.123 own simulations
RE for Mining - offgrid USD/kWh 0.110 own simulations
PPA RE H2 Production – export USD/kWh 0.055 assumption
PPA HPP (comparison case) USD/kWh 0.080 NTDC IGCEP 2022, including grid
Price CASA - export USD/kWh 0.060 Assumption – same as purchase price
Cost Basket - import from CPPA USD/kWh 0.100 Assumption for provincial GDP
Price Export to CPPA USD/kWh 0.045 Assumption for provincial GDP
Margin developer % of PPA 5
Margin BECL % of PPA 0.5
Table 32: Economic Analysis definitions

Item Unit Value Definition
Bal. RE Electricity Prod. GWh/a case All VRE produced in Balochistan as per case simulation
Bal. Electricity Imp. GWh/a All electricity import needed as per hourly case simulation
Bal. Electricity Exp. GWh/a All electricity export incl Uch I, II as per case simulation
Bal. Electricity Sales MUSD/a All electricity revenues by QESCO as per case simulation
Bal. Cost supply MUSD/a All cost of supply using above assumptions and GWh/a
Bal. Dev profit MUSD/a 5% of the annual PPA assumption
Bal. Industr profit MUSD/a Simulated cost savings for Mining; Assumed green H2
profits
Bal. Jobs income MUSD/a 4000 USD/a assumed per average Job x new Jobs
Δ Balochistan value MUSD/a Sum of 5 lines above + 191 million USD as negative base
case value due to higher cost of electricity than revenues
due to subsidies and non-payments of farmers

Item Unit Value Definition
CPPA value MUSD/a Value of Balochistan exports vs 0.08 USD/kWh for new
HPP as an alternative cost of power
Δ Balochistan GDP MUSD/a Change in GDP: value consumptions of residential and
governmental electricity, new local jobs induced GDP, +
electricity exports- electricity imports. +171 MUSD as
negative base case value due to higher electricity imports
Δ RE Jobs O+M #/a New direct jobs created x factor of 1.7, please see above
GHG reductions MT/a Assumed 700 g/kWh as an average for replaced gas (500)
and coal (900-1000) g/kWh
PV Utility MWp As per case simulation
PV Distrib. MWp As per case simulation
Wind MW As per case simulation
CSP MW As per case simulation
Capex MUSD As per case simulation, please refer to case studies for
details of single opportunities

H.5 Mining Statistics
Table 33: Production Figures of Minerals in Balochistan from Jan 2022 to June 2022 (in metric ton).
SN Mineral Type District JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
Quetta 37,212 43,248 80,951 55,473 51,827 65,513
Bolan 11,542 11,655 15,275 19,069 11,612 14,988
1 Coal Duki 129,364 114,673 163,908 187,701 147,102 161,625
Harnai 65,027 73,480 101,518 62,349 57,552 81,589
Total 243,144 243,056 361,651 324,591 268,094 323,715
Khuzdar 46,238 50,531 60,984 42,372 32,201 44,971
Lasbela 144,120 76,929 168,441 84,654 63,273 128,510
Loralai 0 0 45 80 0 0
2 Marble
Bolan 35 41 132
Chagai 43 82 48 0 48 0
Total 190,401 127,577 229,518 127,106 95,563 173,613
3 Limestone Lasbela 543,703 497,972 530,090 492,634 406,982 436,288
4 Serpentine Lasbela 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chagai 12,175 13,706 11,690 5,448 6,496 5,098
Khuzdar 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Iron Ore
Lasbela 7,136 6,335 1,845 6,985 5,211 8,965
Total 19,311 20,041 13,535 12,433 11,707 14,063
Killa Saifullah 7,241 14,338 21,342 13,653 14,604 14,061
Chagai 147 475 939 342 218 493
6 Chromite
Khuzdar 0 0 0 0 0 15
Total 7,388 14,813 22,281 13,995 14,822 14,569
7 Mangnasite Killa Saifullah 37 0 0 0 0 0
Chagai 0 0 210 0 0 0
8 Barite
Khuzdar 24,524 7,799 5,410 8,407 12,689 19,357
9 Pumice Chagai 896 1,121 740 466 191 411
Khuzdar
10 Mangnese
Chagai 0 0 94 0 0 0
11 Marbleoynx Chagai 377 1,670 1,192 259 119 250
12 Sulphur Chagai 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 Granite Chagai 589 704 162 392 153 118
Mastung
14 Flourite Khuzdar
Loralai 2,598 1,215 737 861 445 883
Chagai 71 0 520 314 0 165
15 Copper
Killa Saifullah 0 0 0 0 0 0

SN Mineral Type District JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
16 Basalt Lasbela 2,684 2,543 2,708 2,676 2,643 2,494
17 Shale Lasbela 159,635 149,946 137,380 139,871 66,645 136,814
18 Travertine Loralai 1,239 748 744 1,012 1,518 2,671
Source: Mining Data from Department of Minerals and Mining Balochistan

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Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] ii

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] iii

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] iv

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] v

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] vi

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] vii

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] viii

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] ix

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] x

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study[Type here] xi

The three published studies are:

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 1

1.3 Methodology of study

1.3.2 Assumptions and inputs

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 2

1.3.4 Supply-Demand Model

𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 + 𝐿𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 − 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = 𝑉𝑅𝐸 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 3

Datasource: (NEPRA, 2022)

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 4

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 5

1.3.6 Financial assumptions

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 6

Until 2028 Utility scale plants on existing grid

Figure 4: Utility scale opportunities

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 7

Until 2028 Distributed PV

Until 2033 Gigawatt parks

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 8

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 9

The following aspects have been assessed:

• Impact on job creation

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 10

Figure 7: Organogram of Pakistan's Power Sector (basic)

Source: Adapted from (AEDB, 2006)

National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA)

Federal Ministry of Energy – Power Division

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 11

• The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB)

Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB)

Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA)

National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC)

Distribution Companies (DISCOs) – QESCO in Balochistan

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 12

Balochistan Energy Company Limited (BECL)

1.4.2 Power planning cycle

Figure 8: Planning cycle leading to procurement.

Source: IGCEP (NEPRA, 2022)

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 13

1.4.3 Bidding Regime in Pakistan

1.4.4 Status of electricity sector in Balochistan

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 14

Figure 9: Balochistan GDP and electricity consumption

Source: (QESCO, 2021); WB 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/country/pakistan

Balochistan Renewable Energy Development Study Page 15

Figure 10: Electricity supply and profitability by customer group

Source: (QESCO, 2021)

Source: (QESCO, 2021)