Alexandria Engineering Journal (2019) 58, 757–771

H O S T E D BY
Alexandria University

Alexandria Engineering Journal

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Integrated water resource management in Sharkia

Governorate, East Nile Delta using numerical
evaluation of water management strategies
Elsayed M. Ramadan a,*, Omima S. Shalash b, Maha R. Fahmy c,
Gamal M. Abdel-Aal c

a
Lecturer, Water and Water Structures Eng. Dept., Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University, Egypt
b
Sharkia South Sector, Canal Company for Electricity Distribution, Egypt
c
Water and Water Structures Eng. Dept., Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University, Egypt

Received 26 March 2019; revised 31 May 2019; accepted 22 June 2019

Available online 12 July 2019

KEYWORDS Abstract It is commonly acknowledged that providing a safe water supply for all countries is one
Integrated water resources of the major challenges of the twenty-first century. Egypt, the gift of the Nile is facing big water
management; deficit problem because of the limited water resources and increasing demands as a result of high
River Nile; population growth and development in industrial and agricultural sectors. As agriculture sector
EAST Delta; is the main water consumer sector, Numerical simulation modeling was conducted for East Nile
WEAP Delta region (Sharkia governorate) using WEAP (water evaluation and planning system) program
as a case study especially the area between Bahr Mowais and Ismailia Canal. Applying different
scenarios to predict the future water demands and the future deficit in this region. The results indi-
cated that the main affected parameter is drainage reuse which inversely proportions with water
shortage value. So, applying new strategies in water management is essential to reduce water deficit
and control water resources with demands to overcome the problem of limited resources with
increasing population and development and industrial projects. Egypt share Nile water with other
10 African countries in the Nile basin, water management should take place to achieve the best
water manage with justice water distribution for all basin countries.
Ó 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria
University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction
* Corresponding author at: Split the Old Wholesale Market, The Ring
Road, El-Salam Territory, Ismailia, Egypt. For centuries the Nile provides Egypt with almost all the fresh
E-mail addresses: smokhtar@zu.edu.eg (E.M. Ramadan), water used by more than 80% of Egyptians living along its
drgamal_abdelaal@yahoo.com (G.M. Abdel-Aal). banks Since Egypt faced growing population by exceeding
Peer review under responsibility of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria development in many sectors like establishment the new capi-
University. tal and new industrial projects. The industry is a growing
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.06.006
1110-0168 Ó 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
758 E.M. Ramadan et al.

sector in the Egyptian national economy. So that the govern- the Operation Planning Distribution Model (OPDM) to study
ment applies new strategies for water resources management groundwater management in Egypt shows that gross revenue
like governance, virtual water, and water pricing to control proportional with groundwater and inversely proportional
water shortage problem which has deleterious impacts on the with salinity [5]. Many studies have done by different numeri-
economy, ecology and human welfare. Many studies have been cal models to simulate and control water shortage around the
done all over the world on integrated water resource manage- world, Davis had developed a mathematical model used to
ment on many watersheds and river Nile basin since 1981 until manage water resources in California State in the United
know, these studies are presented under different categories States to predict industrial and municipal water demands [6].
(climate change studies, numerical and simulation models Saleh had studied water abstraction in Dafan canal in Awlad
studies, Shared vision program studies (SVP), Nile basin pro- Sakr District, Sharkia Governorate, Egypt by using SOBEK
ject studies, New strategies of IWRM in international basins, program then concluded that controlling water abstraction
GIS studies and Environmental studies). In1981 a study on can manage the water shortage in that area [7]. Using
Nzoia River, a tributary of Lake Victoria had found that a HadCM3 model predictions to investigate the effects of global
10% increase in precipitation brought about 40% increases warming on water resources in Saudi Arabia at 2050 con-
in runoff and that the relationship is non-linear [1]. When cluded that increasing temperature by (1.8–4.1)°C will lead
studying potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation to increase agricultural water demands by (5–15)% [8]. Attia
of the Blue Nile and Lake Victoria it is included that PET was had studied the impact of climate change on water demands
changed by ±4% (corresponding to ±1 °C temperature in the Nile delta region for three crops (cotton maize and
change) and precipitation was changed in 5% steps from wheat) using three scenarios of GCM (general circulation

25% to +25%. Changes in precipitation produced larger models). He concluded that the water requirements of the
changes in the runoff than changes in PET [2]. While studying crops will increase by 10% for maize and wheat and 13%
White Nile sensitivity to climate change appears that increas- for cotton [18].
ing 1% in rainfall alone is sufficient to cause a (4–7)% increase A GIS-Based Integrated Fuzzy Logic and Analytic Hierar-
in flows throughout the basin, and a (7–11) % increase in the chy Process Model for Assessing Water-Harvesting (WH)
area of the Sudd swamps [3]. Zones in Northeastern Maysan Governorate in Iraq was
Under current operating conditions for Lake Nasser, there applied to obtain that 26% of the research area is moderately
is a chance of 6% for the lake level to exceed 183 m [4]. Using suitable, and 56% of the area is excellent for WH [9]. Sayed

Fig. 1 GIS map showing the study area, Sharkia Governorate (East Delta) [13].
Integrated water resource management in Sharkia Governorate, East Nile delta 759

had studied the sensitivity of the Nile sub-basin to uniform age after 2030 [10]. An integrated hydrologic and quality
changes in rainfall in Lake Victoria using a distributed hydro- model for Zarqa River basin in Jordan has been developed
logical model, he concluded that a 10% increase in rainfall by water evaluation and planning system and concluded that
leads to 5.7% increase in the Lake outflows [19]. In this significant differences between measured and simulated flows
research, a developed management model that is capable of were observed during peak flood [11]. WEAP was implemented
evaluating different operational guidelines were applied. The on Mae Klong Basin in Thailand under six scenarios to simu-
model simulates the physical system and desired operation late water demand and resources and the results show that
rules as a set of constraints embedded in the optimization water shortage has occurred in the dry periods of 2014 and
model, which will give the optimal feasible solution to achieve 2015 due to less rainfall in these years [12].
best water distribution with the low deficit and studying the
effect of different operating scenarios to get the optimum solu- 1.1. The study area
tion for water shortage problem. Water Evaluation and Plan-
ning system (WEAP) had applied on different watersheds all The study area (East Delta) region contains three main gov-
over the world such as for Xiamen City in China. (WEAP) ernorates (Al-Dakhalia, Al-Sharkia, and Damietta) For
was used to analyze trends in water use and demand between simplifying we well study Al-Sharkia governorate as an
2015 and 2050 then it reached that there will be a water short- example for East Delta. Sharkia governorate area is

Table 1 Monthly Discharge for Ismailia Canal, and Bahr Mowais.

Main Canal Monthly Discharge for Ismailia Canal, and Bahr Mowais
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ismailia canal (m3/sec) 22.7 21.2 27.27 33.17 30.27 31.75 33.16 32.21 26.32 25.93 25.58 22.06
Bahr Mowais (m3/sec) 41.1 30 66.4 68.9 110.05 143.7 143.7 137.6 97.07 56.3 57.3 49.77
total discharge (m3/sec) 63.8 51.15 93.67 102.07 140.32 175.45 176.87 169.82 123.39 82.23 82.88 71.83
total discharge (M.m3/mon.) 165.37 132.58 242.79 264.57 363.71 454.94 458.45 440.17 319.83 213.14 214.82 186.18
total discharge (M. m3/year) 3456.56

Table 2 Present monthly domestic demand for the Eight Largest water boosters in Sharkia Governorate [15].
No. Booster Name Design Capacity Actual Capacity (m3/day) Present Demand
m3/day Apr May Jun m3/month
1 Zagazig 69,120 59,222 62,184 65,293 2,343,663
2 Al Abassa 152,000 134,330 141,047 148,099 5,116,728
3 Menia Alkamh 86,400 59,560 62,538 65,665 1,877,620
4 Hehia 34,560 35,841 37,633 39,514 1,129,876
5 Sangaha 103,680 100,934 105,981 111,280 3,181,957
6 Fakows 103,680 101,226 106,288 111,602 4,763,305
7 Al Hussainia 25,920 13,090 13,744 14,431 1,076,157
8 Khafr Sakr 22,464 21,047 22,099 23,204 690,933

Table 3 Name and area served of each agriculture demand node.

Demand node Area name Area served (Feddan) Demand node Area name Area served (Feddan)
Dem (1) Zagazig 49,441 Dem (13) Kassassin Al-Azhar 15,171
Dem (2) Al-Kenayat 13,198 Dem (14) Telrak 5,831
Dem (3) Menia AL-Kamh 55,909 Dem (15) Fakoos 75,688
Dem (4) Belbies 72,920 Dem (16) Kafr Al-Ashkam 8,088
Dem (5) Mashtool 16,184 Dem (17) Al Hussayniah 64,817
Dem (6) Abo Hammad 54,850 Dem (18) San Al Hajar 99,838
Dem (7) Hehia 23,095 Dem (19) Abou Omar 21,681
Dem (8) Al-Ebrahemia 16,487 Dem (20) Kassassin Al-Shark 26,111
Dem (9) Diarb Nejm 41,224 Dem (21) Al Salhyia (1) 60,000
Dem (10) Abo Kabeer 36,586 Dem (22) Al Salhyia (2) 40,000
Dem (11) Kafr Sakr 34,839 Dem (23) Al Salhyia (3) 18,371
Dem (12) Awlad Sakr 23,882 Dem (24) Al Qurain 3,877
Total 878,088
760 E.M. Ramadan et al.

4922 km2 (1169285 faddan) which become the second gover- 2. Methodology
norate in the area in Delta after Al-Behaira governorate. It is
bounded by latitude 30° 300 and 31° 000 N and longitudinal at Most of the previous studies on Nile Delta area concentrated
31° 150 and 31° 500 E and an elevation of 10 m above the on the impact of climate change, groundwater management
mean sea level. Its population more than 7 million capita by using numerical and simulation models like crop wat,
in 2017 and it is expected to reach 10 million capita in OPDM, and MODFLOW program to study the impact of cli-
2032 according to Egyptian Central Agency for Public Mobi- mate change on water demands in delta region by using some
lization and Statistics, The Eastern Delta region is bounded crops or the relationship between groundwater salinity and
and dissected by a number of canals, drains and lakes. Such gross revenue. A flood management via improving the opera-
surface water bodies are either fresh in quality including the tion rules of multi-purpose reservoir (Aswan High Dam Reser-
Damietta Branch and the irrigation canals like El Raiah El voir in Egypt) were assembled and analyzed data collected for
Tawfeiki, Bahr Mowais, Bahr Abu Akhder, and Ismailia operation scenario and 9 proposed scenarios for static and
canal or salty from the north Mediterranean Sea, also includ- dynamic operations to achieve the best flood management,
ing Suez Canal, El Temsah lake and El Manzala lake as in the results indicated that dynamic operation satisfies (3–4)%
Fig. 1. increase in water storage during 9 years [14]. All these studies

Table 4 Agriculture water demand nodes on Bahr Mowais canal.

Demand W.U.R (M.m3/month) A.A.L. A.W.U.R
Nodes (hec.) (m3\hec.)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dem (1) 11.36 7.48 18.38 18.43 30.45 38.48 39.76 38.07 26.00 15.57 15.35 13.76 20,765 13,151
Dem (2) 3.03 2.00 4.91 4.92 8.13 10.27 10.61 10.16 10.27 4.16 4.10 3.67 5,543.2 13,151
Dem (3) 12.85 8.46 20.73 20.79 34.34 43.40 44.84 42.94 29.32 17.56 17.31 15.52 23,482 13,151
Dem (5) 3.72 2.45 6.02 6.03 9.97 12.60 13.02 12.46 8.51 5.10 5.02 4.51 6,797.28 13,151
Dem (7) 5.31 3.50 8.59 8.61 14.22 17.97 18.57 17.78 12.14 7.27 7.17 6.43 9,699.9 13,151
Dem (8) 3.79 2.50 6.13 6.15 10.15 12.83 13.26 12.69 8.67 5.19 5.12 4.59 6,924.5 13,151
Dem (9) 9.47 6.24 15.32 15.37 25.39 32.08 33.15 31.74 21.68 12.98 12.80 11.48 17,314.08 13,151
Dem (10) 8.41 5.54 13.60 13.64 22.53 28.47 39.65 28.17 19.24 11.52 11.36 10.19 15,366 13,151
Dem (11) 8.01 5.27 12.95 12.99 21.46 27.11 28.02 26.83 18.32 10.97 10.81 9.70 14,632 13,151
Dem (12) 5.49 3.61 8.88 8.90 14.71 18.59 19.21 18.39 12.56 7.52 7.41 6.65 10,030 13,151
Dem (13) 3.49 2.30 5.64 5.66 9.34 11.81 12.20 11.68 7.98 4.78 4.71 4.22 6,371.82 13,151
Dem (14) 1.34 0.88 2.17 2.17 3.59 4.54 4.69 4.49 4.54 1.84 1.81 1.62 2,449.02 13,151
Dem (15) 17.39 11.46 28.14 28.22 46.61 58.91 60.87 58.28 39.80 23.83 23.50 21.07 31,788.96 13,151
Dem (16) 1.86 1.22 3.01 3.02 4.98 6.29 6.50 6.23 4.25 2.55 2.51 2.25 3,396.96 13,151
Dem (17) 14.89 9.81 24.09 24.17 39.92 50.45 52.13 49.91 34.08 20.41 20.12 18.04 27,223.14 13,151
Dem (18) 23.49 15.47 38.00 38.11 62.95 79.55 39.65 78.71 53.75 32.18 31.73 28.46 42,931.96 13,151
Dem (19) 4.98 3.28 8.06 8.08 13.35 16.87 17.44 16.69 11.40 6.83 6.73 6.04 9,106.02 13,151
Dem (20) 5.99 3.95 9.69 9.72 16.06 20.29 20.97 19.43 13.71 8.21 8.09 7.26 10,966.62 13,151
Total 144.87 95.42 234.31 234.98 388.15 490.51 474.54 484.64 336.22 198.46 195.65 175.46 3,453.21
Where:
W.U.R: Water Use Rate (total water requirement) for each agriculture demand node (M.m3 /month).
A.A.L: Annual Activity Level (area ‘‘hectare”).
A.W.U.R: Annual Water Use Rate for each agriculture demand node (m3 /hectare).
The data in feddan from Ministry of Irrigation but it converted to hectare as an input to WEAP system.

Table 5 Agriculture water demand nodes on Ismailia canal.

Demand W.U.R (M. m3/mon) Month A.A.L. A.W.U.R
Nodes (hec.) (m3\hec.)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dem (4) 27.59 25.70 33.31 40.28 36.77 38.59 40.28 39.11 31.98 31.50 31.05 26.78 30,626 13,151.4
Dem (6) 20.75 19.33 25.06 30.30 27.66 29.02 39.65 29.42 24.06 23.69 23.36 20.15 23,037 13,151.4
Dem (21) 22.70 21.14 27.41 33.14 30.26 31.75 33.14 32.18 26.31 25.92 25.55 22.04 25,200 13,151.4
Dem (22) 15.13 14.10 18.27 22.09 20.17 21.17 39.65 21.45 17.54 17.28 17.03 14.69 16,800 13,151.4
Dem (23) 6.95 6.47 8.39 10.15 9.26 9.72 10.15 9.85 8.06 7.94 7.82 6.75 7,715.82 13,151.4
Dem (24) 1.47 1.37 1.77 2.14 1.96 2.05 2.14 2.08 1.70 1.67 1.65 1.42 1,628.34 13,151.4
Total 94.59 88.11 114.21 138.1 126.08 132.3 165.01 134.09 109.65 108 106.46 91.83 1,408.43
Integrated water resource management in Sharkia Governorate, East Nile delta 761

depend on one or two parameters only and in one sector only. 2.1. Model setup
In the present study, a numerical model using WEAP program
were developed for studying Al Sharkia governorate as a case WEAP places the evaluation of specific water problems in a
study for East Nile Delta region using GIS layer for canals and comprehensive framework. The integration is over several
water demands of this area from agriculture sector with differ- dimensions: between demand and supply, between water quan-
ent policies and scenarios. Then make a balance between water tity, quality, and economic development objectives and envi-
resources and demands in the present case and predict future ronmental constraints. WEAP is adaptable to whatever data
water deficit through the period of five years (2017–2022) is available to describe a water resources system. That is, it
under different scenarios. can use daily, weekly, monthly, or annual time-steps to

Fig. 2 Schematic diagram showing the model simulation network on WEAP for Sharkia Governorate, (East Nile Delta).

Table 6 water balance of Sharkia governorate in 2017 [16]

Water resources Quantity (BCM/year) Water demands Quantity (BCM/year)
surface water from Bahr Mowais 2.644 Agriculture 6.362
Surface water from Ismailia canal 2.207 Drinking water 0.464
Water discharge from other departments 0.330 Industry 0.533
drainage reuse 1.486
Ground aquifer 0.482
wastewater reuse 0.210
Total 7.359 Total 7.359
762 E.M. Ramadan et al.

characterize the system’s water supplies and demands. WEAP (the year we start with) then run the program to get the scenar-
evaluates a full range of water improvement and management ios results for expected years.
options, and consider multiple and competing uses of water At each agricultural demand site, water requirements are
systems since 1988. WEAP represents a new generation of calculated by the model according to area cultivated and water
water planning software that utilizes the powerful capability use rate per Feddan per year (from Ministry of Agriculture
of today’s personal computers to give water professionals data were collected for the agriculture area for winter and sum-
everywhere access to appropriate tools. mer crops in addition to average water use rate for each crop).
The model includes all the essential relationships of these com-
2.2. Model development ponents in a one-year time horizon with a monthly time step.
A number of agricultural, and municipal (boosters) demand
sites or nodes have been spatially connected to the schematic
A numerical optimization model was developed in order to
network. Agricultural demand sites are delineated according
simulate the actual data with the theoretical one to solve the
to the irrigation districts in the study area.
water deficit problem and predict the future policies to be
applied to avoid water shortage problem. Water balance
2.2.1. Main water resources
between both water resource as in Table 1 and demands as
in Tables 2, 3, 4 and 5 is made to overcome any expected water Ismailia Canal and Bahr Mowais are main water resources of
shortage at any point in the study area. The East Nile Delta the study area are (neglecting main drains impact as an initial
region will represent as the schematic area contains main condition) in addition to groundwater. The monthly discharge
canals as resources and nodes as demands as in Fig. 2 and of both canals is represented in Table 1. Note that total water
can be explained as follows: discharge from both canals is nearly 3.5 BCM/year but there
are untraditional water resources in the governorate such as
 Resource nodes: such as main canals (Ismailia canal and drainage reuse (1.486 BCM) and wastewater reuse
Bahr Mowais), groundwater aquifer and reservoir. (0.210 BCM) in addition to rainfall (17 mm/year) and ground-
 Demand nodes: such as agriculture land (24 demand water (0.482 BCM) from nearly 4000 wells [20] as shown in
nodes), drinking purifications (8 boosters), water treatment Table 6.
plant and households.
2.2.2. Main water demands
The model was fed with data of both resources and Eight water purification plants to represent the domestic use
demands in monthly variation for current account year 2017 where the present demand was evaluated from the three

Fig. 3 Monthly unmet demand (MCM) in the base case (reference scenario).
Integrated water resource management in Sharkia Governorate, East Nile delta 763

Table 7 Monthly unmet demand for all demand sites (24 Nodes MCM) in the reference scenario.
Demand Nodes Monthly unmet demand (MCM) Sum
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
All boosters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (1–17, 19–21, and 24) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (18) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Dem (22) 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4
Dem (23) 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
Sum 0.0 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6

more than the study area (4.858 BCM) because it relates to

the area between Bahr Mowais an Ismailia canal only where
more than 90% of the governorate population lives around their
banks and need new agriculture lands to feed them, while the
governorate boundaries are desert area like Tenth of Ramadan
City. The required potable water is nearly 4% (0.464/4.84) of the
agriculture used so that the water deficit is small and related to
agriculture nodes not potable because of priority.
From the above table, it is obvious that there is No water
deficit in 2017 in Sharkia governorate but in the study area,
there is a future water deficit because of increasing population
and hence increase of both agriculture and domestic water
demands. So that WEAP is fed with the above data and run
the program to get results.

2.3. WEAP calculations

Using multiple equations WEAP calculates a water mass bal-

ance for every node and link in the system on a monthly time
step. Water is dispatched to meet in stream, consumptive and
hydropower requirements, subject to demand priorities, supply
preferences, mass balance, and other constraints. Point loads
of pollution into receiving bodies of water are computed,
and in-stream water quality concentrations are calculated.
WEAP operates on a monthly time step, from the first month
of the Current Accounts year through the last month of the
last scenario year. Each month is independent of the previous
month, except for reservoir and aquifer storage, and catchment
soil moisture levels (soil moisture method only). Thus, all of
the water entering the system in a month (e.g., head flow,
groundwater recharge, or runoff into reaches) is either stored
Fig. 4 (a, and b); Drainage reuse in north Al-Sharkia region.
in an aquifer, reservoir or catchment, or leaves the system by
months of maximum discharge, and 24 demand nodes repre- the end of the month (e.g., outflow from end of river, demand
sent the agriculture water demands in Sharkia Governorate site consumption, reservoir or river reach evaporation, trans-
and they are summarized in Tables 2 and 3 where the total cul- mission and return flow link losses). Because the time scale is
tivated area is represented by 24 nodes distributed as 18 relatively long (monthly), all flows are assumed to occur
demand nodes on Bahr Mowais Canal and 6 nodes on Ismailia instantaneously. Thus, a demand site can withdraw water from
canal as shown in Tables 4, and 5. The demands for other sec- the river, consume some, return the rest to a wastewater treat-
tors are represented in Table 6. ment plant that treats it and returns it to the river. This return
Note that total water demand (5,103 MCM/year) is the sum- flow is available for use in the same month by downstream
mation of total agriculture water demand from Bahr Mowais demands. Each month the calculations follow this order:
(3,453.21 MCM/year), total agriculture water demand from Annual demand and monthly supply requirements for each
Ismailia canal (1,408.43 MCM/year), and total water demand demand site and flow requirement. Catchment potential evap-
of drinking purification plants (242.16 MCM/year). A balance otranspiration, and runoff and infiltration, assuming no irriga-
between water resources and demands in Sharkia governorate tion inflow.
at 2017 taking into consideration the reused drainage water is Inflows and outflows of water for every node and link in the
represented in Table 6. Taking into consideration that the total system. This includes calculating withdrawals from supply
water demands for all Sharkia governorate (6.362 BCM) is sources to meet demand and dispatching reservoirs. This step
764 E.M. Ramadan et al.

Fig. 5 Monthly unmet demand (MCM) resulting from decrease Bahr Mowais head flow by 5%.

Table 8 Monthly unmet demand (MCM) resulting from decrease Bahr Mowais head flow by 5%.
Demand Site Monthly Unmet Demand (MCM) Sum
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Al boosters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (1–11), 21, and 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem 12 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
Dem 13 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
Dem 14 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
Dem 15 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
Dem 16 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Dem 17 0.0 1.4 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.4
Dem 18 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
Dem 19 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
Dem 20 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
Dem 22 0.9 9.4 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.4
Dem 23 0.0 4.3 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
Sum 1.1 15.2 61.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.5

is solved by a linear program (LP), which attempts to optimize in San Al-Hajar and Al-Salheyah where the largest agriculture
coverage of demand site and instream flow requirements, sub- area served with high growth rate, taking the priority of drink-
ject to demand priorities, supply preferences, mass balance and ing water boosters is the first priority (1) and for demand nodes
their constraints [17]. vary from value (4–15). The results of the WEAP model is
summarized as follows:
3. Data analysis and results
 Total demand (not including loss, reuse and Demand site
3.1. Base case management ‘‘DSM”) is 4,546.6 MCM/year,
 Total Supply delivered is 3,097 MCM/year,
The base case (reference scenario) showed that there is water  Total supply requirement (including loss, reuse &DSM) is
shortage in demand nodes (Dem 18, 22 and 23) which located 3,108.6 MCM/year, and
Integrated water resource management in Sharkia Governorate, East Nile delta 765

Table 9 Monthly unmet demands (MCM) resulting from decrease Ismailia Canal head flow by 5%
Demand Site Monthly Unmet Demand (MCM) Sum
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Al boosters. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (1–16) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
dem17 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
Dem18 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Dem (19–21) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
dem22 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4
dem23 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
dem24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sum 0.0 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1

Fig. 6 Monthly unmet demand (MCM) resulting from decrease Ismailia canal head flow by 5%.

 Total shortage (310,8.6–309,7) is 11.6 MCM/year occurs in After the analysis of the base case is achieved, simple sce-
February only at the end of the network in San Al-Hagar narios were applied on the study area then complex ones to
and Al-Salhyiah area (Dem 18, 22 and 23). Note that the get more expectation for water deficit values and to overcome
program considers loss and reuse in supply requirement this problem to get less water deficit values.
and neglect it in demands.
3.2. Simple operation scenarios
The results of the base scenario are shown in Fig. 3 and
Table 7. The program fixes the water deficit amount for all The simple scenarios are the same data for the base case but
years from 2017 to 2022 so that the following figures represent change one parameter only to simplify its effect on the water
only one-year 2017. shortage value and starting with increase reuse rate parameter
766 E.M. Ramadan et al.

Fig. 7 Monthly unmet demand (MCM) of increasing annual activity level by10%.

Table 10 Monthly unmet demands (MCM) for increase annual activity level by 10%.
Demand Sites Monthly unmet demand (MCM) Sum
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
All boosters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (1–17) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (18) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Dem (19–21) and 24) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (22) 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4
Dem (23) 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
Sum 0.0 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2

as follows: (a) Increase reuse by 15% scenario, (b) Decrease In North Al-Sharkia region farmers depend on drainage reuse
Bahr Mowais head flow by 5% scenario, (c) Decrease Ismailia as in Fig. 4a and b.
Canal head flow by 5% scenario, and (d) Increase annual
activity level by 10% scenario. (b) Decrease Bahr Mowais head flow by 5% scenario

(a) Increase reuse by 15% scenario In this operation scenario, all assumptions and data in the
reference base case are the same data but decrease Bahr
In this scenario, all assumptions and data in the base case Mowais head flow by 5% as an expected matter because of
are the same data but increase the reuse rate from 33.4% to any hydrological or political changes. The results of this sce-
48.4% with increment value 15%. Note that unmet demand nario are represented in Fig. 5 and Table 9.
is zero which means that increasing drainage reuse is an easy From the above table it indicates that Unmet demand
solution to overcome water deficit problem in the study area increase from 11.6 MCM/year in base case to 77.5MCM/year
but taking into consideration water quality and human health. in this scenario and the water shortage distributed on 10
Integrated water resource management in Sharkia Governorate, East Nile delta 767

Fig. 8 Demand site coverage for the optimistic scenario.

demand nodes Dem (12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 20, 22, and 23) 29945.45 ha as the Ministry of Agriculture development plan
which represents (Awlad Sakr, Kassassin Al Azhar, Telrak, expected to increase the cultivated area to meet the increasing
Fakows, Kafr Al-Ashkam, Al-Hussainyah, Abou Ommar, population growth rate. The results of this scenario are repre-
Kassassin Al-Shark and Al- Sahhyia) which means that any sented in Fig. 7 and Table 10.
decrease in Bahr Mowais head flow will affect water deficit The unmet demand in this scenario is 12.2MCM/year at
in the study area at the end of network in large different Dem (18, 22, and 23) which represent San Al-Hajar and Al-
points. Salhyia regions which represent the biggest cultivated area at
the end of the network.
(c) Decrease Ismailia Canal head flow by 5% scenario
3.3. Complex operation scenarios
In this scenario, all assumptions and data in the base case
remain constant but decrease Ismailia canal head flow by
The complex scenarios are a series of scenarios were based on a
5%. The results of this scenario are represented in Fig. 6 and
set of assumptions with changing two parameters or more
Table 9 (see Table 8).
regarding base case according to the following:
In this scenario the unmet demand increase from 11.6
(a) Optimistic scenario: where Increase the amount of sur-
MCM/year in base case to 14.1 MCM/year at demand nodes
face water for the governorate by 5% and 10% for Bahr
Dem (17, 18, 22, 23) which represents Al-Salhiah, San Al-
Mowais and Ismailia canal respectively by increasing reuse
Hajar and Al-Hussainiah region at the end of network, that
and groundwater and surface water discharge from neighbor
means decreasing head flow of Ismailia Canal with the same
governorate and increase drainage reuse by 10% then decrease
ratio of Bahr Mowais head flow give small effect on the study
the average water use for agriculture purposes from 6154 m3/
area nearly 18% of the effect of decreasing head flow of Bahr
fed/year at 2016 to 5523 m3/fed/year.
Mowais with the same ratio that’s because Bahr Mowais feed
In this scenario all demand nodes cover by 100% there will
more than 70% of the study area.
be zero water deficit as shown in Fig. 8.
(b) The realistic scenario:
(d) Increase annual activity level by 10% scenario
In this scenario, all assumptions and data in base case are (i) Where Increase the amount of surface water for the gov-
the same data but increase annual activity level (area served) ernorate by 10 & 15% for Bahr Mowais and Ismailia
by 10% in at Dem (17) Al-Hussainiah only from 27223.14 to Canal respectively.
768 E.M. Ramadan et al.

Fig. 9 Monthly unmet demand (MCM) for the realistic scenario.

Table 11 Monthly unmet demand (MCM) for the realistic scenario.

Demand Site Monthly unmet demand (MCM) Sum
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
All boosters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (1–16) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem17 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
Dem (18) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7
Dem (19–21&24) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (22) 11.6 10.8 4.4 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 10.7 8.9 63.9
Dem (23) 1.1 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
Sum 12.8 24.0 4.5 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 10.8 0.0 78.8

(ii) Reduce drainage reuse by 10%. where the following assumptions are applied:
(iii) Increase cultivated area by 10% apply on (Dem 17) Al-
Hussaineyah only. (i) Increase surface water by 10% for both Bahr Mowais &
Ismailia canal.
The water deficit of this scenario is 78.1 MBCM/year as in (ii) Decrease drainage reuse by 5%.
Fig. 9 and Table 11. (iii) Increase cultivated area by 15% applies on dem (23&24)
The water shortage appears in four nodes, dem (17,18,22 Al-Salheyah and Al-Qurain respectively.
and 23) which represent (Al Hyssainiyah, San Al Haggar
and Al Salheyiah) at the end of the network. The results are shown in Fig. 10 and Table 12.
(c) The pessimistic scenario
Integrated water resource management in Sharkia Governorate, East Nile delta 769

Fig. 10 Monthly unmet demand (MCM) for pessimistic scenario.

Table 12 Monthly unmet demand (MCM) for pessimistic scenario.

Demand site Monthly unmet demand (MCM) Sum
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Al boosters. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (1–3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (4) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Dem (5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (6) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Dem (7–12) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (13) 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
Dem (14) 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
Dem (15 and16) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (17) 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
Dem (18) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.4
Dem (19) 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
Dem (20 and 21) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem (22) 10.8 10.1 8.7 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 12.2 10.5 80.5
Dem (23) 12.9 18.5 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 6.0 3.9 53.3
Dem (24) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Sum 23.9 39.8 9.0 25.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7 18.4 14.7 146.5
For this operating scenario the water deficit appears in dem (4, 6, 14, 17, 18, 19, 22, 23 and 24) which represents Belbees, Abo Hammad, Telrak,
Al-Hussaineyah, San Al-Hagar, Abou Ommar, Al-Salheyah and Al-Qurain at the middle and end of the network where deficiency appears as in
actual because of illegal actions of farmers in all al Sharkia regions. A comparison between the base case and different scenarios is represented in
Table 13.
770 E.M. Ramadan et al.

Table 13 Yearly unmet demand for all scenarios and base case.
Scenario Simple Complex
Base case a b c d optimistic Realistic Pessimistic
Unmet demand MCM/year 11.6 0.0 77.5 14.1 12.2 0.0 78.8 146.5

4. Conclusion References

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