Ihsan

The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Volume XLVI-M-2-2022
ASPRS 2022 Annual Conference, 6–8 February & 21–25 March 2022, Denver, Colorado, USA & virtual
SPATIAL MODELING OF MULTI-SCENARIO OPTIMAL SOLAR PV POWER PLANT

DISTRIBUTION TO SUPPORT INDONESIA'S CLEAN ENERGY ACHIEVEMENT
TARGETS
K. T. N. Ihsan a,c*, T. S.Anggraini a,c, M. Adrian b, P. Rohayani c, A. D. Sakti c,d,e

a Master Program of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung,
Jl. Ganesha No.10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia - 25121028@mahasiswa.itb.ac.id (K.T.N.I); 25121035@mahasiswa.itb.ac.id (T.S.A.)
b Undergraduated Program of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Institut Teknologi
Bandung, Jl. Ganesha No.10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia.

c Geospatial Institute for Sustainability Action, Bandung 40132, Indonesia, rohayanipitri@gmail.com (P.R.)
d Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Sciences Research Group, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Institut
Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, anjar@itb.ac.id (ADS.)

e Center for Remote Sensing, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia;
*Correspondence: kalinggatitonnurihsan@gmail.com
KEYWORDS: Solar PV, Multi Scenario, Spatial Analysis, Remote Sensing, Socio-Economic, WebGIS.
ABSTRACT:
The increasing population brings the increasing energy demand. The increasing production of fossil energy makes many gas emissions.
This causes some effect like global warming. The production of clean energy concerns the world government. Solar energy has great
attention from many countries worldwide, seeing the potential of the energy produced, the ease of installation process, and the small
risk of damage. The potential of solar energy in Indonesia itself reaches 4.8 KWh/m 2 or equivalent to 112,000 GWp. Currently, the
Indonesian government has a target for constructing solar power plants in 2025 of 0.87 GW or around 50 MWp/year. The absence of
research on determining the appropriate location based on multiple aspects is one of the obstacles in planning the construction of a
solar PV power plant. Good planning is needed to determine the management and installation of an optimum and sustainable solar PV
power plant. This research aims to develop an effective and efficient multi-scenario spatial model for the distribution of Solar PV
(Photovoltaic) power plant development in Indonesia. The novelty in the study of the distribution of solar energy potential integrates
meteorological and Geographic aspects and socio-economic aspects. The integration of dynamic multi-spatial data is used to determine
the location of the development of solar power plants. Meteorological data is used to calculate potential energy, socio-economic data
is used to determine the location for energy demand, and geographic aspect is used to know the suitable environment to install solar
PV. The output of this research is the location of the priorities for the development of communal solar power plants in Indonesia. The
distribution of effective Solar PV power plant development in Indonesia using a multi-scenario spatial model is divided into five
suitability classes. The percentage of suitability class is 0.2% very low class, 3.5% low, 32.4% medium 56.9% high class, and very
high 7%. The result is published in WebGIS that can access in link http://bit.ly/ModelPLTSIndonesia. It is hoped the results of this
research can be used as material for consideration and one of the solutions for policymakers in making decisions regarding the
development of communal solar power plants in Indonesia.
1. INTRODUCTION will support the spread of electrification in Indonesia. In Papua

and NTT, the electrification ratio is still at 60%. The Ministry of
In 2019, world energy consumption reached 158,839 TWh. Most Energy and Mineral Resources also mentioned that the
of the energy consumed is produced from non-renewable energy government had issued a roadmap for the use of solar energy. The
sources such as oil which contributes 53,620 TWh, coal with installed Solar PV Power Plant (PLTS) capacity will be targeted
43,849 TWh, and gas with 39,292 TWh (Smil, 2016). At the same at 0.87 GW or 50 MWp/year in 2025 (Mineral, 2012). This
time, non-renewable energy sources such as fossil energy have number illustrates Indonesia's reasonably enormous market
weaknesses, such as their limited availability and taking a long potential in developing renewable energy, especially solar
time to be replenished (Shinn, 2018). Therefore, it is necessary to energy, in the future.
develop the use of renewable energy. Renewable energy is the
energy obtained from the flow of energy that repeats naturally To support the roadmap issued by the government, it is necessary
and continuously occurs in the local environment (Twidell and to do good planning based on the potential of resources and
Weir, 2015). Renewable energy is energy that can reduce energy needs spatially so that energy management and utilization
production costs and is environmentally friendly. Renewable can be maximized and sustainable. One of them is developing a
energy sources include solar energy, biomass energy, wind multi-scenario spatial model in determining the distribution of
energy, geothermal energy, hydro energy, and others (Shinn, Solar PV power plant development in Indonesia which is
2018). effective and efficient.
Indonesia has a vast potential for solar energy. According to the Solar energy is a renewable energy that is obtained through the
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the potential process of converting solar heat through certain technologies. At
is around 4.8 KWh/m2 or 112,000 GWp. However, only about 10 present, solar energy is one of the energy generators besides
MWp has been utilized. Seeing this potential, it is hoped that it water, wind, steam, gas, and petroleum. As a tropical country,
This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVI-M-2-2022-119-2022 | © Author(s) 2022. CC BY 4.0 License. 119
Indonesia has enormous potential for solar energy. Seeing this resource crises. This situation has led to a new development
potential, the government is trying to develop solar energy. approach that considers economic, socio, and environmental
Indonesia has an average solar energy potential of about 4.8 factors to create a better growth-development paradigm (Han and
kWh/m2/day with a monthly variation of around 9% (Mineral, Kaya, 2008). There are three principles in this development
2012). The potential for solar energy can be determined by approach. The first principle is related to the community's quality
determining the amount of solar radiation to the earth. Solar of life, where it is necessary to produce goods and services.
radiation to the earth's surface will be influenced by geometric Second, an agreed and acceptable standard of living must be
factors, the direction of the sun's rays, and meteorological factors. provided for all people living in the world. Third, it must provide
The geometry of the sun's arrival that affects solar radiation is the opportunities not only for today's society to benefit but also for
altitude and azimuth of the sun (Desthieux et al., 2018). future generations (Chambers et al., 2014).
Meanwhile, atmospheric factors that affect solar radiation
include clouds, temperature, dust, snow, and humidity (Principe Economic sustainability can be defined as providing strength and
and Takeuci, 2019). Solar radiation hitting the object is consistency in the economy and other fields, and it is also defined
influenced by other things around the object (Desthieux et al., as how humans should behave towards nature. Focusing on the
2018). relationship between humans and nature can ascertain what
responsibilities people have when considering future generations
Solar energy has great potential, and many solar technologies are and the world they will leave behind (Baumgärtner and Quass,
developing to harness it. Solar energy does not cause pollution, 2010).
and it is also unlimited and free. However, the solar energy sector
still loses in terms of costs compared to fossil fuels. Indonesia is One method that can be used to obtain data on the suitability of
the largest energy user in Southeast Asia, with consumption in the PLTS location is by using remote sensing technology. Many
2015 reaching 1033.24 million BOE (Barrel Oil Equivalent) studies have been carried out to model the potential of the Solar
(IRENA, 2017). The demand for electricity in Indonesia is PV Power Plant, including the research of Principe and Takeuchi
growing higher than the demand for other energy sources in (2019), explaining that the efficiency of solar panels is influenced
Indonesia. Electricity consumption in 2019 in Indonesia reached by meteorological factors such as precipitation, rainfall, dust, and
1.08 kWh/capita (World Bank, 2019). Prediction, the share of snow. This research results in an evaluation of the potential of
electricity demand will increase from 60% in 2018 to 90% in solar panels in a Spatio-temporal manner in the Asia Pacific
2050 (ESDM, 2019). To anticipate national energy needs and the region based on meteorological factors. Solar panels will
limitations of fossil energy, the government makes a National experience a decrease in efficiency due to dust, snow, and
Energy Policy (KEN) which contains a national energy temperature drops. The research by Adeh et al. (2019) classified
management policy or renewable energy roadmap, one of which potential areas for solar panels based on their land cover. This
is PLTS (Boedoyo, 2013). The use of PLTS in Indonesia has been research explains that the location with the greatest solar panel
carried out since the 1980s. However, its application is still efficiency is on agricultural land because the efficiency of solar
limited to small-power systems or solar home systems (SHS), panels is influenced by insolation, air temperature, wind speed,
usually used by rural communities without electricity. It is hoped and relative humidity, which is suitable for agricultural land. In
that by 2025, renewable energy will reach 5% of the national addition, there was also a Gašparović study in 2019, which
power generation capacity, and it is expected that PLTS can determined suitable areas for solar panels by using climate,
contribute 800 MW (Kumara, 2010). PLTS, like renewable spatial, environmental, and geomorphological data and using
energy, of course, has many advantages. Including the benefits of socio, economic, population, unemployment, and electricity
PLTS based on (Boedoyo, 2013) are as follows: environmentally consumption parameters. From the study results, the parameters
friendly, renewable, and environmentally friendly, and abundant that most determine the optimal location of PLTS are GHI (global
resources. horizontal irradiation), land cover, and distance to the electricity
network. Based on the research that has been done, there are
The electrification ratio is between the number of households limitations. Namely, there is no research on the potential of solar
with an electric lighting source and the total number of homes. In panels in Indonesia, which relates not only to spatial data but also
2017, the electrification ratio in Indonesia reached 95.25%. to socio-economic data. Furthermore, these limitations become
However, some areas have low electrification ratios, such as NTT the novelty of this study.
and Papua, which have 59.85% and 61.42%, respectively
(ESDM, 2017). The uneven distribution of electrification in
Indonesia is caused by several factors, including the problem of 2. METHODOLOGY
funds to expand the construction of the electricity network,
limited energy sources, and Indonesia's geographical conditions, 2.1 Data
which are difficult to reach for development (Akhmad, 2005). To
In modeling the spatial distribution of Solar-PV Power Plant,
achieve this electrification, alternative energy such as PLTS is
several things need to be considered in addition to the spatial or
needed. Therefore, in choosing a location, it is necessary to pay
geographic aspects; other aspects that need to be considered are
attention to spatial factors and to pay attention to socio and
socio-economic aspects and also the effectiveness of solar panels
economic factors so that electrification with PLTS can be right
(meteorologically) (Ihsan, et al., 2021(a)) (Gašparović and
on target.
Gašparović, 2019). Therefore, the data used in this study will be
divided into three classes based on the aspects of their influence.
The world's human population has passed 7 billion in 2015. If the
The data source and the resolution of the data used can be seen in
population growth rate is constant, it is estimated that there will
Table 1.
be 12 billion people in the world in 2050. In line with population
growth, the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has reached
Table 1. Data
75.590 trillion US dollars in 2015 (World Bank, 2019).
Population growth and rapid increases in spending are causing Resol Refere
increased pressure on natural resources. One example is the oil No Data Product Year
ution nce
crisis that occurred in 1973, and there were several other natural

(Barth Precipit (Funk

olome ation et al.,
12 Terra Climate 2019 ~4 km
Land & (mm/da 2015)
1 GLC2000 2018 30 s
Cover Belwar y)
d,
2005) 13 Land Modis 2019 1 km (Wan
Surface et al.,
Geospatial (BIG, Temper 2015)
Built 1:2500
2 Information - 2015) ature or
Area 00
Agency LST
(K)
Digital (Farr
Elevatio et al., 14 Short Terra Climate 2019 ~4 km (Abatz
CGIAR
3 n Model 2011 30 s 2007) Wave oglou
SRTM
or DEM Radiati et al.,
(m) on 2018)
(W/m2)
4 Inland Digital Chart 2011 1:1000 (Unite
Water of the World 000 d Global (ESM
States, Photovo AP,
1992) ltaic 2019)
Power Global Solar
15 2019 1 km
5 Protecte Protected 2019 - (UNE Potentia Atlas
d Area Planet P- l
WCM (kWh/k
C& Wp)
IUCN,
2019)
2.2 Methods
6 Road Geospatial 2011 1:2500 (BIG, The data processing process to determine the distribution of Solar
Information 00 2015) PV power plant development in Indonesia effectively uses the
Agency spatial model shown in Figure 1. Data processing is divided into
three stages: modeling based on Geographic aspects, modeling
(Arder based on socio-economic factors, and modeling based on
Electrifi 2015
(Arderne, et ne et practical aspects (meteorology).
7 cation - 1 km
al., 2020) al.,
(W) 2019
2020)
Human (BPS,
Develop Provin 2019)
Statistics
8 ment 2019 ce
Indonesia
Index or Level
HDI
Populati (BPS,
on Provin 2019)
Statistics
9 Density 2018 ce
Indonesia
(people/ Level
km2)
Figure 1. Methods
Frontier PP
, No.13 2.2.1 Modeling Based on Geographic aspect
Remote 1 2015 Modeling based on Geographic aspect use scoring parameter that
Presidential modified from Gašparović and Gašparović (2019) and Kencana
and
Regulation City et al. (2018), which can be seen in Table 2.
10 Disadva 2015
No. 131 of Level
ntaged
2015
Areas
(3T Table 2. Parameter Scoring in Geographic aspect
Areas) Parameter Sub-Criteria Score
Forest, Paddy Field, Field,
Aerosol (Lyapu 3
Land Cover Garden, Wetland, Bush
Optical Terra & Aqua stin & Built-up Area and Inland Water 0
11 2019 1 km
Depth MAIAC Wang,
≥100 m 3
or AOD 2018) Built-up Area
<100 m 1
<150 m 3
DEM
150-500 m 2

>500 m 1 However, in modeling the distribution of Solar PV Power Plant

Slope (from <25% 3 in Indonesia, there are still some parameters that have not been
DEM) ≥25 % 1 included, such as geological data containing rock types in an area,
≥100 m 3 because this data is also a consideration of the geographical
Inland Water conditions of an area where Solar PV Power Plant is built. For
<100 m 1
Protected ≥100 m 3 example, Karst rock which has a complex and irregular texture,
Area <100 m 1 is a location that needs to be avoided for the construction of PLTS
in the area. In addition, it also considers the location of the fault
<3000 m 2
Road in an area, whether the area is close to the fault or not. The closer
≥3000 m 1
to the fault, the greater the level of danger posed if at any time a
fault occurs. In addition, this research has not carried out
2.2.2 Modeling Based on Socio-economic Aspect weighting for each parameter and modeling aspect. So that all
parameters and aspects of modeling are given the same weight.
Modeling based on Geographic aspect use scoring parameter that
modified from Gašparović and Gašparović (2019), Kencana et al. Based on the geographic and socio-economic aspects of data
(2018), and Statistic Indonesia (2019), which can be seen in processing, the results are as shown in Figure 2. The results are
Table 3. divided into 5 appropriate classes: very low, low, medium, high,
Table 3. Parameter Scoring in Socio-economic Aspect and very high.
Parameter Sub-Criteria Score
Electrified 1
Electrification
Not Yet Electrified 3
Human ≥ 80 1
Development 70-80 2
Index 60-70 3
≥1250 3
Population
500-1249 2
Density
<500 1
3T Areas 3
3T Areas
Non-areas of 3T 1
2.2.3 Modeling Based on Meteorology Aspect

Modeling based on meteorology aspect used some equation. The
first is solar radiation modeling that can be calculated using
Equation 1 (Principe and Takeuci, 2019), where Ppv is solar PV Figure 2. Geographic and Socio-Economic aspect Model
output theory (W), ACELL is pixel area (m2), and R is solar
radiation data (W/m2). After modeling the distribution of Solar PV Power Plant based
𝑝𝑝𝑣 = 𝐴𝐶𝐸𝐿𝐿 × 𝜂 × 𝑅 (1) on geographical and socio-economic aspects, the next step is
modeling the distribution of Solar PV Power Plant based on
After that, PV output theory is corrected by temperature, aerosol, meteorological aspects, as shown in Figure 3. The results are also
and precipitation effect to get Effective Solar PV (𝑝′ 𝑝𝑣 ) using classified into five suitability classes, namely very low, low,
medium, high, and very high.
Equation 2 (Principe and Takeuci, 2019), which η is solar cell
̅̅̅̅̅
efficiency, R' solar radiation, and temperature and ∆𝜂 𝑑 is aerosol
and precipitation correction.
(2)
3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
3.1 Suitable Model Based on Geographic, Socio-Economic,

and Meteorology aspect
Several analytical processes such as buffer and overlay analysis

were carried out in Indonesia's multi-scenario modeling process
of Solar PV Power Plant distribution. Buffer analysis is carried
out on data that has criteria, such as being at a certain distance. Figure 3. Meteorology Aspect Model
This analysis is carried out on data such as access roads, protected
areas, water bodies, and built-up areas. Then an overlay analysis
is carried out to combine the data based on its aspects, where 3.2 Multi-Scenario Model
there are three aspects for modeling, and each aspect has its
parameters. An overlay analysis was performed to combine the Furthermore, an analysis of the three spatial models was carried
parameters used in this study. out, and a multi-scenario Solar PV Power Plant distribution
model was produced in Indonesia, as shown in Figure 4.

that is the main priority for the construction of PLTS in that

location.
3.3 Solar PV Power Plant Suitability Area
Based on Figure 6, some areas are most suitable for

constructing solar PV power plants. The most suitable
areas are seen from the area with the highest suitability
level. The provinces with the most suitable areas are the
provinces of East Nusa Tenggara, Papua, Central
Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku, West Nusa Tenggara,
Gorontalo, West Sulawesi, East Java and Southeast
Sulawesi. The ten provinces can later be used as priority
Figure 4. Multi-Scenario Model areas for PLTS to be built.
Figure 6. 10 Potential Areas for PLTS Construction
Figure 5. Solar PV Power Plant Distribution Class in Indonesia The priority of PLTS development can also be chosen based on
the region's needs in regional development. The 3T area can be
The area of each suitability class for each modeling aspect is linked to the results of the suitability of the PLTS development
shown in Figure 5. Based on the annual effective power data, a area, where PLTS can be used to develop the 3T area. Eight
solar-PV power plant distribution model based on meteorological provinces have the most districts/cities in the 3T classification,
aspects, it is found that the highest effective power is at 125° and these eight provinces can be prioritized for PLTS
development. The very suitable area for 8 provinces can be seen
longitude and -12° latitude.
in Figure 7 and 8. Suppose the regions with the highest area of
The following is attached a WebGIS link for the results of the conformity and the 3T regions are combined. In that case, there
Spatial Modeling of Multi Scenario Distribution of Optimal Solar are provinces with high priority for PV mini-grid development,
namely the provinces of East Nusa Tenggara, Papua, Central
Power Plants to Support Indonesia's Clean Energy Achievement
Sulawesi, Maluku, and North Maluku.
Target: http://bit.ly/ModelPLTSIndonesia.
Based on Figure 5, it can be seen that the majority of Suitability
classes in Indonesia are in the medium and high categories. This
proves that Indonesia has a huge potential for solar energy and is
spread evenly throughout Indonesia. Then it can be seen in Figure
2 and Figure 3 if in modeling the distribution of Solar PV Power
Plant in Indonesia only by considering the meteorological aspect,
without considering the spatial and socio-economic aspects, the
results of the suitability will be different. On the other hand, if
only the spatial and socio-economic aspects are considered, the
results will be inconsistent without considering the
meteorological aspects. They will reduce the level of confidence
in these results. As shown in Figure and Figure 3, if only the
spatial and socio-economic aspects are considered, the majority
of the level of Suitability in Indonesia is in the high and very high Figure 7. Area Percentage of PLTS Development in Very High
class. However, after combining the meteorological aspects, Suitability Class in 3T Region
most of the suitability levels changed to medium and high
classes. This multi-scenario model can determine the location

processed yields are. The coefficient of determination (R2) is

0.412, which means that the two data correlate 41.2%.
This research can improve by Integrate the results that have been
obtained with other parameters that have not been included, such
as geological data in the form of rock types, fault data, and other
data that refers to the guide to the feasibility study of centralized
solar power plant (Karimi et al., 2018). The need improves to
determine the appropriate weight value for each parameter so that
the results have a higher level of trust, like Analytical Hierarchy
Process (AHP) (Tercan et al., 2021). The Approach of this
research also can be used to plant detail in urban (Ihsan et al.,
2021(b)) and rural (Islam et al., 2018) specific locations to
Figure 8. PLTS Development Area with Very High Suitability determine the suitable area to build solar PV. For easier access
and more informative information, WebGIS can be developed to
Class in Region 3T
interactive WebGIS (Ihsan et al., 2021(c)). Furthermore, to find
out the specific impact of the role of solar PV on the provision of
clean energy, analysis can be done using calculations of carbon
3.4 Data Comparison stock and carbon emission models (Sakti et al., 2022). In this
study, there has also been no analysis by considering multi-
disaster aspects (landslides, floods, earthquakes, fires, etc.) that
can be done using spatial hazard analyses (Sakti et al., 2021).
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are grateful to acknowledge the support from Institut

Teknologi Bandung. We also thank the anonymous reviewers
whose valuable comments helped us prepare an improved and
more precise version of this paper. All people and institutes who
kindly made their data available for this analysis are
acknowledged.
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The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Volume XLVI-M-2-2022

SPATIAL MODELING OF MULTI-SCENARIO OPTIMAL SOLAR PV POWER PLANT

K. T. N. Ihsan a,c*, T. S.Anggraini a,c, M. Adrian b, P. Rohayani c, A. D. Sakti c,d,e

Bandung, Jl. Ganesha No.10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia.

Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, anjar@itb.ac.id (ADS.)

1. INTRODUCTION will support the spread of electrification in Indonesia. In Papua

This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

(Barth Precipit (Funk

This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

>500 m 1 However, in modeling the distribution of Solar PV Power Plant

2.2.3 Modeling Based on Meteorology Aspect

3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

3.1 Suitable Model Based on Geographic, Socio-Economic,

Several analytical processes such as buffer and overlay analysis

This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

that is the main priority for the construction of PLTS in that

3.3 Solar PV Power Plant Suitability Area

Based on Figure 6, some areas are most suitable for

Figure 6. 10 Potential Areas for PLTS Construction

This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

processed yields are. The coefficient of determination (R2) is

The authors are grateful to acknowledge the support from Institut

This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

farms using GIS and multi-criteria assessment approach in

This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

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