Beginning of A Low Output Cycle
Beginning of A Low Output Cycle
ASEAN
PLANTATIONS SHORT TERM (3 MTH) LONG TERM
CIMB Analyst
Beginning of low output cycle?
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks fell by 11% in Mar to a seven-month low of
2.17m tonnes. This is below our forecast of 2.42m and consensus
estimates of 2.35m tonnes. The sharper fall in stocks is positive as it
suggests that the lower CPO price has been effective in raising demand.
Figure 1: Negative correlation between CPO price and stocks
Ivy Ng Lee Fang CFA ('000 tonnes) (US$ /tonne)
Stock (LHS) CPO price (RHS)
T (60) 3 20849697 2,800 1,400
E ivy.ng@cimb.com 1,300
2,600
2,400 1,200
1,100
2,200
1,000
2,000
900
1,800
800
1,600
700
1,400 600
1,200 500
1,000 400
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
We are surprised by the mom decline changes in Malaysian CPO export tax,
in Mar's FFB yields, signalling that to make palm oil more competitive,
palm trees may have entered their have been effective in igniting
low production cycle. This and signs demand for palm oil. Also, the
of stronger Chinese appetite for palm unusual mom drop in FFB yields
oil are positive signals for CPO price recorded in Mar 2013, suggests
in 2Q13. We maintain our recently Malaysian palm trees may have
lowered average CPO price forecasts entered their low production cycle. In
of RM2,530 for 2013 and RM2,700 addition, stronger palm oil imports by
for 2014 and sector rating at Neutral. China indicate palm oil exporters
Key picks are Wilmar and BW have successfully adapted to tighter
Plantations. quality regulations on imported
Highlighted Companies edible oils. The stronger palm oil
Wilmar International What Happened imports could also be due to lower
We expect Wilmar to benefit from the current low Palm oil stocks in Malaysia fell by sales of edible oils/oilseeds from
CPO prices through higher sales volume and better 10.9% mom to 2.17m tonnes at Chinese state reserves. Overall, we
refining margin. The stock is trading at 1.3x book,
which is below its three-year average of 2.1x. end-Mar. Stocks are 10% below our project end-Apr 2013 stocks could
forecast of 2.42m tonnes and 8% touch 2m tonnes.
BW Plantations lower than the Reuters poll estimate
We like BW Plantations as the group's higher of 2.35m. The lower stockpile was due What You Should Do
output growth prospects will help to offset our mainly to higher palm oil exports. We continue to like Wilmar (a
view of a weaker average CPO prices in 2013.
beneficiary of higher palm oil supplies
What We Think and stocks) and BW Plantations (for
Sime Darby The larger drop in Malaysian palm oil its high production growth prospects).
Sime Darby remains our preferred pick among stock is positive for CPO price as it Our preferred pick in Malaysia is
Malaysian planters as it offers more attractive P/Es suggests a tighter stock situation. The Sime Darby, for its more attractive
compared to its large-cap peers and potential
earnings upside from M&As. higher exports figure reinforces our valuations compared to other big cap
view that the attractive pricing of CPO planters in Malaysia.
vs. other edible and crude oils and
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
PLANTATIONS
Calculations are performed using EFA™ Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
2
PLANTATIONS
April 11, 2013
3
PLANTATIONS
April 11, 2013
Figure 4: Mar 2013 production is the second weakest over the past four years
('000 tonnes)
2010 2011 2012 2013
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure 5: FFB yield in Mar 2013 was lower vs. Feb, which is unusual
(MT/ha) (yoy chg)
2.5 30%
yoy% chg (RHS) FFB Yield (LHS)
20%
2.0
10%
1.5
0%
1.0
(10%)
0.5
(20%)
0.0 (30%)
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Figure 6: Malaysia’s CPO production in 2012 (18.8m tonnes) Figure 7: FFB yield by states
(MT/ha) Mar Mar Feb Mar Mar
CY13 Title: CY12 CY13 yoy chg mom chg
Johor
15.7% Johore 1.21 Source:1.12 1.20 8.0% 0.8%
Other states
25.6% Kedah 1.44 1.37 1.52 5.1% (5.3%)
Kelantan 0.95 Please0.72
fill in the values
0.80 above to 31.9%
have them entered
18.8% in your rep
Perak Malacca 1.54 1.53 1.54 0.7% 0.0%
10.3%
N. Sembilan 1.29 1.25 1.34 3.2% (3.7%)
Total CPO Pahang 1.27 1.16 1.28 9.5% (0.8%)
production: Penang 1.33 1.33 1.36 0.0% (2.2%)
18.8m tonnes Perak 1.39 1.53 1.48 (9.2%) (6.1%)
Selangor
3.4% Selangor 1.37 1.57 1.40 (12.7%) (2.1%)
Terengganu 0.92 0.89 0.97 3.4% (5.2%)
Sarawak Sabah 1.63 1.38 1.66 18.1% (1.8%)
15.6% Sarawak 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.0% (1.0%)
4
PLANTATIONS
April 11, 2013
Figure 8: Malaysia's monthly and YTD exports to selected destinations (Mar 2013)
('000 tonnes) Mar Feb Mar Mar Mar YTD YTD
2013 2012 2013 mom yoy 2012 2011 yoy
China 418 237 258 77 % 62 % 922 777 19 %
India 64 188 120 (66%) (46%) 423 337 26 %
EU 137 220 173 (38%) (21%) 513 439 17 %
Pakistan 84 105 78 (20%) 9% 369 227 62 %
US 85 108 83 (21%) 2% 295 241 22 %
Others 750 542 618 38 % 21 % 2,040 1,919 6%
Total 1,539 1,399 1,330 10 % 16 % 4,563 3,940 16 %
SOURCES: CIMB, MPOB
Figure 9: Monthly export trend to China Figure 10: Monthly export trend to India
('000 tonnes) ('000 tonnes)
2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012
600 350 Title:
Source:
300
500
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
250
400
200
300
150 Auto update
200
100
100 50
0
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure 11: Monthly export trend to EU Figure 12: Monthly export trend to Pakistan
('000 tonnes) ('000 tonnes)
2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012
300 300 Title:
Source:
250 250
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
200 200
150 150
Auto update
100 100
50 50
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5
PLANTATIONS
April 11, 2013
Figure 13: Monthly export trend to the US Figure 14: Total palm oil export trend
('000 tonnes) ('000 tonnes)
2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012
160 1,900 Title:
Source:
140 1,800
1,700 Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
120
1,600
100
1,500
80
1,400
Auto update
60 1,300
40 1,200
20 1,100
1,000
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
6
PLANTATIONS
April 11, 2013
Figure 16: Monthly share of CPO exports falls after the imposition of 4.5% CPO
export tax in March
Crude Palm Oil Processed Palm Oil
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13
Figure 17: CPO price discount against soybean oil remains large
(US$ /tonne) Palm discount against soya (RHS) Palm oil (LHS) Soya oil (LHS) (US$/tonne)
1,800 0
1,600 (50)
(100)
1,400
(150)
1,200
(200)
1,000
(250)
800
(300)
600
(350)
400
(400)
200 (450)
- (500)
Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13
7
PLANTATIONS
April 11, 2013
Figure 18: Recent weakness in crude oil price dampens CPO prices
(RM per tonne) (US$/bbl)
CPO (LHS) Brent crude oil (RHS)
5,000 160
4,500
140
4,000
120
3,500
100
3,000
2,500 80
2,000
60
1,500
40
1,000
20
500
0 0
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
8
PLANTATIONS
April 11, 2013
DISCLAIMER
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where
such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions set forth below and agrees to be bound
by the limitations contained herein (including the “Restrictions on Distributions” set out below). Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law. This
publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this report may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form
by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB.
Unless otherwise specified, this report is based upon sources which CIMB considers to be reasonable. Such sources will, unless otherwise specified, for market data, be market data
and prices available from the main stock exchange or market where the relevant security is listed, or, where appropriate, any other market. Information on the accounts and business
of company(ies) will generally be based on published statements of the company(ies), information disseminated by regulatory information services, other publicly available information
and information resulting from our research.
Whilst every effort is made to ensure that statements of facts made in this report are accurate, all estimates, projections, forecasts, expressions of opinion and other subjective
judgments contained in this report are based on assumptions considered to be reasonable as of the date of the document in which they are contained and must not be construed as a
representation that the matters referred to therein will occur. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments may go down as well as up
and those investing may, depending on the investments in question, lose more than the initial investment. No report shall constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of CIMB or
its affiliates to any person to buy or sell any investments.
CIMB, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this
research report or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of, or may be materially interested in, any such securities. Further, CIMB, its affiliates and
its related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting
commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment
banking, advisory, underwriting or placement services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in
this report.
CIMB or its affiliates may enter into an agreement with the company(ies) covered in this report relating to the production of research reports. CIMB may disclose the contents of this
report to the company(ies) covered by it and may have amended the contents of this report following such disclosure.
The analyst responsible for the production of this report hereby certifies that the views expressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal views and opinions about
any and all of the issuers or securities analysed in this report and were prepared independently and autonomously. No part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations(s) or view(s) in this report. CIMB prohibits the analyst(s) who prepared this research report from receiving any
compensation, incentive or bonus based on specific investment banking transactions or for providing a specific recommendation for, or view of, a particular company. Information
barriers and other arrangements may be established where necessary to prevent conflicts of interests arising. However, the analyst(s) may receive compensation that is based on
his/their coverage of company(ies) in the performance of his/their duties or the performance of his/their recommendations and the research personnel involved in the preparation of this
report may also participate in the solicitation of the businesses as described above. In reviewing this research report, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among
other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the duties of confidentiality, available on request.
Reports relating to a specific geographical area are produced by the corresponding CIMB entity as listed in the table below. The term “CIMB” shall denote, where appropriate, the
relevant entity distributing or disseminating the report in the particular jurisdiction referenced below, or, in every other case, CIMB Group Holdings Berhad ("CIMBGH") and its affiliates,
subsidiaries and related companies.
Country CIMB Entity Regulated by
Australia CIMB Securities (Australia) Limited Australian Securities & Investments Commission
Hong Kong CIMB Securities Limited Securities and Futures Commission Hong Kong
Indonesia PT CIMB Securities Indonesia Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal & Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam)
India CIMB Securities (India) Private Limited Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)
Malaysia CIMB Investment Bank Berhad Securities Commission Malaysia
Singapore CIMB Research Pte. Ltd. Monetary Authority of Singapore
South Korea CIMB Securities Limited, Korea Branch Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service
Thailand CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd. Securities and Exchange Commission Thailand
(i) As of April 10, 2013, CIMB has a proprietary position in the securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any other derivatives) in the
following company or companies covered or recommended in this report:
(a) Felda Global Ventures, First Resources, Genting Plantations, Golden Agri-Resources, Indofood Agri Resources, IOI Corporation, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, Sime Darby Bhd, Wilmar
International
(ii) As of April 11, 2013, the analyst(s) who prepared this report, has / have an interest in the securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any
other derivatives) in the following company or companies covered or recommended in this report:
(a) -
The information contained in this research report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of this report. CIMB may or may not issue regular reports
on the subject matter of this report at any frequency and may cease to do so or change the periodicity of reports at any time. CIMB is under no obligation to update this report in the
event of a material change to the information contained in this report. This report does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. CIMB or any of
its affiliates does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information and
opinion contained in this report. Neither CIMB nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited
to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof.
This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst CIMB and its affiliates’ clients generally and does not have
regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. The information and opinions in this report are
not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financial instruments thereof.
Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this research report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial
situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction
in respect of the securities of company(ies) covered in this research report. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of
investors.
Australia: Despite anything in this report to the contrary, this research is provided in Australia by CIMB Securities (Australia) Limited (“CSAL”) (ABN 84 002 768 701, AFS Licence
number 240 530). CSAL is a Market Participant of ASX Ltd, a Clearing Participant of ASX Clear Pty Ltd, a Settlement Participant of ASX Settlement Pty Ltd, and, a participant of Chi X
Australia Pty Ltd. This research is only available in Australia to persons who are “wholesale clients” (within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) and is supplied solely for
the use of such wholesale clients and shall not be distributed or passed on to any other person. This research has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial
situation or needs of the individual recipient.
France: Only qualified investors within the meaning of French law shall have access to this report. This report shall not be considered as an offer to subscribe to, or used in connection
with, any offer for subscription or sale or marketing or direct or indirect distribution of financial instruments and it is not intended as a solicitation for the purchase of any financial
instrument.
Hong Kong: This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by CIMB Securities Limited (“CHK”) which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for Type
9
PLANTATIONS
April 11, 2013
1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) activities. Any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities
covered in this report should contact the Head of Sales at CIMB Securities Limited. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to
change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient
therein are unaffected. CHK has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CHK. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No
part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person
in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CHK. Unless permitted to do so by the securities laws of Hong Kong, no person may issue or have in its
possession for the purposes of issue, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, any advertisement, invitation or document relating to the securities covered in this report, which is directed at,
or the contents of which are likely to be accessed or read by, the public in Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the securities laws of Hong Kong).
India: This report is issued and distributed in India by CIMB Securities (India) Private Limited (“CIMB India”) which is registered with SEBI as a stock-broker under the Securities and
Exchange Board of India (Stock Brokers and Sub-Brokers) Regulations, 1992 and in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 4 (g) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India
(Investment Advisers) Regulations, 2013, CIMB India is not required to seek registration with SEBI as an Investment Adviser.
The research analysts, strategists or economists principally responsible for the preparation of this research report are segregated from the other activities of CIMB India and they have
received compensation based upon various factors, including quality, accuracy and value of research, firm profitability or revenues, client feedback and competitive factors. Research
analysts', strategists' or economists' compensation is not linked to investment banking or capital markets transactions performed or proposed to be performed by CIMB India or its
affiliates.
Indonesia: This report is issued and distributed by PT CIMB Securities Indonesia (“CIMBI”). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are
subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such
recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBI has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBI. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No
part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person
in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBI. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed in Indonesia or to any Indonesian citizens
wherever they are domiciled or to Indonesia residents except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.
Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (“CIMB”). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are
subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such
recipient therein are unaffected. CIMB has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No
part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person
in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB.
New Zealand: In New Zealand, this report is for distribution only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of, and for the purposes of their
business, habitually invest money pursuant to Section 3(2)(a)(ii) of the Securities Act 1978.
Singapore: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Research Pte Ltd (“CIMBR”). Recipients of this report are to contact CIMBR in Singapore in respect of any matters arising
from, or in connection with, this report. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets
Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBR has no obligation to
update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only. If the recipient of this research report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor,
CIMBR accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report without any disclaimer limiting or otherwise curtailing such legal responsibility. This publication is being supplied to you
strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed
or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBR.
As of April 10, 2013, CIMBR does not have a proprietary position in the recommended securities in this report.
South Korea: This report is issued and distributed in South Korea by CIMB Securities Limited, Korea Branch ("CIMB Korea") which is licensed as a cash equity broker, and regulated
by the Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service of Korea.
The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change, and this report shall not be considered as an offer to subscribe to, or used
in connection with, any offer for subscription or sale or marketing or direct or indirect distribution of financial investment instruments and it is not intended as a solicitation for the
purchase of any financial investment instrument.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only, and no part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any
means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB Korea.
Sweden: This report contains only marketing information and has not been approved by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. The distribution of this report is not an offer to sell
to any person in Sweden or a solicitation to any person in Sweden to buy any instruments described herein and may not be forwarded to the public in Sweden.
Taiwan: This research report is not an offer or marketing of foreign securities in Taiwan. The securities as referred to in this research report have not been and will not be registered with
the Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China pursuant to relevant securities laws and regulations and may not be offered or sold within the Republic of China through
a public offering or in circumstances which constitutes an offer within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Law of the Republic of China that requires a registration or approval
of the Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China.
Thailand: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Securities (Thailand) Company Limited (CIMBS). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date
hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations
owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBS has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBS. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No
part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person
in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBS.
Corporate Governance Report:
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed
to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. CIMBS does
not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Score Range 90 – 100 80 – 89 70 – 79 Below 70 or No Survey Result
Description Excellent Very Good Good N/A
United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in
the United Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by, deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority or
governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is being issued outside the United Arab Emirates to a limited number of institutional investors and must not be provided
to any person other than the original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Further, the information contained in this report is not intended to lead to the
sale of investments under any subscription agreement or the conclusion of any other contract of whatsoever nature within the territory of the United Arab Emirates.
United Kingdom and Europe: In the United Kingdom and European Economic Area, this report is being disseminated by CIMB Securities (UK) Limited (“CIMB UK”). CIMB UK is
10
PLANTATIONS
April 11, 2013
authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and its registered office is at 27 Knightsbridge, London, SW1X 7YB. This report is for distribution only to, and is solely
directed at, selected persons on the basis that those persons: (a) are persons that are eligible counterparties and professional clients of CIMB UK; (b) have professional experience in
matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the “Order”); (c) are persons
falling within Article 49 (2) (a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc”) of the Order; (d) are outside the United Kingdom; or (e) are persons to whom an
invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) in connection with any investments to which
this report relates may otherwise lawfully be communicated or caused to be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This report is directed
only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this report relates is available only
to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.
Only where this report is labelled as non-independent, it does not provide an impartial or objective assessment of the subject matter and does not constitute independent "investment
research" under the applicable rules of the Financial Services Authority in the UK. Consequently, any such non-independent report will not have been prepared in accordance with legal
requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and will not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
United States: This research report is distributed in the United States of America by CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, a U.S.-registered broker-dealer and a related company of CIMB
Research Pte Ltd, CIMB Investment Bank Berhad, PT CIMB Securities Indonesia, CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd, CIMB Securities Limited, and is distributed solely to persons who
qualify as "U.S. Institutional Investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. This communication is only for Institutional Investors whose ordinary
business activities involve investing in shares, bonds and associated securities and/or derivative securities and who have professional experience in such investments. Any person who
is not a U.S. Institutional Investor or Major Institutional Investor must not rely on this communication. The delivery of this research report to any person in the United States of America
is not a recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, is a FINRA/SIPC
member and takes responsibility for the content of this report. For further information or to place an order in any of the above-mentioned securities please contact a registered
representative of CIMB Securities (USA) Inc.
Other jurisdictions: In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is only for distribution to professional, institutional or sophisticated
investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.
Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 31 March 2013
984 companies under coverage
Rating Distribution (%) Investment Banking clients (%)
Outperform/Buy/Trading Buy 50.9% 8.1%
Neutral 35.2% 4.8%
Underperform/Sell/Trading Sell 13.9% 5.9%
Recommendation Framework #1 *
Stock Sector
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark's total return OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to
by 5% or more over the next 12 months. outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant benchmark's total NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in
return. line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to
return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark's total return TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to
by 5% or more over the next 3 months. outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to
return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities Exchange, Korea Exchange, Taiwan
Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market
volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)
Recommendation Framework #2 **
Stock Sector
OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number
of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i) an equal
number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% (or better) or -10% (or worse), or
(ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns that will range from +10% to -10%;
both over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number
of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months. TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number
of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number
of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over the next 3 months.
** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily
outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
11
PLANTATIONS
April 11, 2013
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2011.
AAV – not available, ADVANC - Excellent, AMATA - Very Good, AOT - Excellent, AP - Very Good, BANPU - Excellent , BAY - Excellent , BBL - Excellent, BCH - Good, BEC - Very Good, BECL - Very Good,
BGH - not available, BH - Very Good, BIGC - Very Good, BTS - Very Good, CCET - Good, CK - Very Good, CPALL - Very Good, CPF - Very Good, CPN - Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DTAC - Very Good,
GLOBAL - not available, GLOW - Very Good, GRAMMY – Excellent, HANA - Very Good, HEMRAJ - Excellent, HMPRO - Very Good, INTUCH – Very Good, ITD - Good, IVL - Very Good, JAS – Very Good,
KAMART – not available, KBANK - Excellent, KK – Excellent, KTB - Excellent, LH - Very Good, LPN - Excellent, MAJOR - Very Good, MCOT - Excellent, MINT - Very Good, PS - Excellent, PSL - Excellent,
PTT - Excellent, PTTGC - not available, PTTEP - Excellent, QH - Excellent, RATCH - Excellent, ROBINS - Excellent, RS – Excellent, SC – Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCC - Excellent, SCCC - Very Good,
SIRI - Very Good, SPALI - Very Good, STA - Very Good, STEC - Very Good, TCAP - Very Good, THAI - Very Good, THCOM – Very Good, TICON – Good, TISCO - Excellent, TMB - Excellent, TOP -
Excellent, TRUE - Very Good, TUF - Very Good, WORK – Good.
12