Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
Scribd
Upload
6 views

Sampling Distribution and Confidence Intervals

Uploaded by

ummmdov20
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
6 views

Sampling Distribution and Confidence Intervals

Uploaded by

ummmdov20
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 22

Sampling distribution

and Confidence Interval


Sample mean
Normal distribution

Theorem:
Let X1, X2, ... Xn be independent normal distributed random
variables with same mean μ and same finite variance σ2,
that is

It follows that

and then
Sample mean
Distribution

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT):


Let X1, X2, ... Xn be independent identically distributed
random variables with same mean μ and same finite
variance σ2. Then the distribution of

will tend towards the standard normal distribution as n → ∞.

How large should n be before the approximation is good?


• Most distributions: n > 30
• Normal distribution : for all n
Sample mean
Example

Problem: Production of light bulbs


A company produces bulbs with a life time X,
which is approximately normal distributed with
mean: μ = 800 hours
standard diviation: σ = 40 hours
The Central Limit Theorem

P(
P(X
(X)
Law of Large Numbers

Draw observations at random


from any population with finite
mean μ. If we increase the
number of observations drawn,
the mean Ẋ of the observed
values gets closer to the
population mean μ

6
Confidence interval for the mean

Example:
In a sample of 20 chocolate bars the amount of calories
has been measured:
• the sample mean is 224 calories

How certain are we that the population mean μ is close


to 224?

The confidence interval (CI) for μ helps us here!


Confidence interval for μ

From the standard normal distribution N(0,1)

•We are (1-α)100% confident that the unknown parameter μ lies in the CI.
(1 - α)100% confidence interval :
• typical values of α: α =10% , α = 5% , α = 1%
• α is called “alpha level” or “confidence level”
Confidence interval for μ

Suppose we obtain a simple random sample from a


population. Provided that the population is normally
distributed or the sample size is large, the distribution of
the sample mean will be normal with
95% of all sample means are in the interval
Confidence Interval Estimation of Population Mean, μ,
when σ is known

▪ Assumptions
▪ Population standard deviation σ is known
▪ Population is normally distributed
▪ If population is not normal, use large sample
▪ Confidence interval estimate:

(where Z is the normal distribution’s critical value for a probability of α/2 in each tail)
Consider a 95% confidence interval:

.475 .475

Z
Z= -1.96 0 Z= 1.96
Lower Upper
Confidence Confidence
Limit Limit

μ
μ μ
Student’s t-distribution
Student’s t-distribution
Student’s t-distribution
Student’s t-statistic
t-table

t-table is used:

▪ to find a t-value if degrees of


freedom and right tail probability
is given
▪ to find the probability P(T>t) if
Degrees of freedom is given and
a t-value is calculated using the
formula:
Example

Suppose you do a study of acupuncture to determine how effective it is in relieving


pain. You measure sensory rates for 15 subjects with the results given. Use the
sample data to construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean sensory rate for
the population (assumed normal) from which you took the data
8.6; 9.4; 7.9; 6.8; 8.3; 7.3; 9.2; 9.6; 8.7; 11.4; 10.3; 5.4; 8.1; 5.5; 6.9

You might also like