MÔ HÌNH DẠNG XU HƯỚNG TUYẾN TÍNH

Month t Jobs (Y) F Error SE

3 1 353 357.067 -4.067 16.54049
4 2 387 364.467 22.533 507.7361
5 3 342 371.867 -29.867 892.0377
6 4 374 379.267 -5.267 27.74129
7 5 396 386.667 9.333 87.10489
8 6 409 394.067 14.933 222.9945
9 7 399 401.467 -2.467 6.086089
10 8 412 408.867 3.133 9.815689
11 9 408 416.267 -8.267 68.34329
10 423.667 MSE
204.2667

Vậy phương pháp tuyến tính tốt hơn pp

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.800761
R Square 0.641218
Adjusted R 0.589963
Standard E 16.20582
Observatio 9

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 3285.6 3285.6 12.51044 0.009508
Residual 7 1838.4 262.6286
Total 8 5124

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 349.6667 11.77325 29.70009 1.264E-08 321.8273
t 7.4 2.092162 3.537011 0.009508 2.452822
 Month t Jobs (Y) F' Error SE
3 1 353
4 2 387
5 3 342
6 4 374 356.6 17.4 302.76
7 5 396 365.7 30.3 918.09
8 6 409 384 25 625
9 7 399 401.6 -2.6 6.76
10 8 412 401.7 10.3 106.09
11 9 408 407.8 0.2 0.04
10 408.3 MSE
326.4567

ng pháp tuyến tính tốt hơn pp trung bình trượt có trọng số

Jobs (Y)
450
400 f(x) = 7.4 x + 349.666666666667
350
300
250
Significance F
200
150
100
50
Upper 95%
0Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
377.5060 321.8273
1 2
377.506 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
12.34718 2.452822 12.34718
MÔ HÌNH DẠNG XU HƯỚNG KHÔNG TUYẾN TÍNH

Year Revenue (Y) F Error SE

1 23.1 22.9976 -46.0976 2124.989
2 21.3 23.6564 -44.9564 2021.078
3 27.4 26.1584 -53.5584 2868.502
4 34.6 30.5036 -65.1036 4238.479
5 33.8 36.692 -70.492 4969.122
6 43.2 44.7236 -87.9236 7730.559
7 59.5 54.5984 -114.0984 13018.44
8 64.4 66.3164 -130.7164 17086.78
9 74.2 79.8776 -154.0776 23739.91
10 99.3 95.282 -194.582 37862.15
11566
MSE
 Revenue (Y)
120

100
f(x) = 0.921590909090909 x² − 2.10598484848485 x + 24.1816666666667
80

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
MÔ HÌNH THEO MÙA

Year (t) Sales (Y) Q1 Q2 Q3 F

1 125 1 0 0 124
2 153 0 1 0 152
3 106 0 0 1 121
4 88 0 0 0 95
5 118 1 0 0 124
6 161 0 1 0 152
7 133 0 0 1 121
8 102 0 0 0 95
9 138 1 0 0 124
10 144 0 1 0 152
11 113 0 0 1 121
12 80 0 0 0 95
13 109 1 0 0 124
14 137 0 1 0 152
15 125 0 0 1 121
16 109 0 0 0 95
17 130 1 0 0 124
18 165 0 1 0 152
19 128 0 0 1 121
20 96 0 0 0 95
1 0 0 124
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.893791
R Square 0.798863
Adjusted R 0.76115
Standard E 11.32475
Observatio 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 8150 2716.667 21.18259 8.104E-06
Residual 16 2052 128.25
Total 19 10202

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept 95 5.064583 18.75771 2.566E-12 84.26356 105.7364
Q1 29 7.162402 4.048921 0.000931 13.81639 44.18361
Q2 57 7.162402 7.958224 5.935E-07 41.81639 72.18361
Q3 26 7.162402 3.630067 0.002252 10.81639 41.18361
 Sales (Y)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
84.26356 105.7364
13.81639 44.18361
41.81639 72.18361
10.81639 41.18361
MÔ HÌNH THEO MÙA + XU HƯỚNG

Year (t) Y SEAS1 SEAS2 t F

1 1856 1 0 1 1928.9
2 2012 0 1 2 2059.401
3 985 0 0 3 906.401
4 1995 1 0 4 2038.301
5 2168 0 1 5 2168.802
6 1072 0 0 6 1015.802
7 2241 1 0 7 2147.702
8 2306 0 1 8 2278.203
9 1105 0 0 9 1125.203
10 2280 1 0 10 2257.103
11 2408 0 1 11 2387.604
12 1120 0 0 12 1234.604
1 0 13 2366.504
0 1 14 2497.005
0 0 15 1344.005

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.993717
R Square 0.987474
Adjusted R 0.982777
Standard E 73.08608
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 3368786 1122929 210.2243 6.028E-08
Residual 8 42732.6 5341.575
Total 11 3411519

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept 797 59.67453 13.35578 9.446E-07 659.3903 934.6097
SEAS1 1095.433 53.18887 20.59516 3.235E-08 972.7796 1218.087
SEAS2 1189.467 52.06107 22.84753 1.428E-08 1069.414 1309.52
t 36.46667 6.290248 5.797334 0.000406 21.96133 50.972
 Y
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
659.3903 934.6097
972.7796 1218.087
1069.414 1309.52
21.96133 50.972
Year (t) Y Q1 Q2 Q3 t F
1 4 1 0 0 1 4.042
2 2 0 1 0 2 2.041
3 3 0 0 1 3 3.041
4 5 0 0 0 4 5.041
5 6 1 0 0 5 5.666
6 3 0 1 0 6 3.665
7 5 0 0 1 7 4.665
8 7 0 0 0 8 6.665
9 7 1 0 0 9 7.29
10 6 0 1 0 10 5.289
11 6 0 0 1 11 6.289
12 8 0 0 0 12 8.289
1 0 0 13 8.914
0 1 0 14 6.913
0 0 1 15 7.913
0 0 0 16 9.913

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Y
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.979322 9
R Square 0.959071 8
Adjusted R 0.935683 7
Standard E 0.469295
6
Observatio 12
5

ANOVA 4
df SS MS
3 F Significance F
Regression 4 36.125 9.03125
2 41.00676 6.043E-05
Residual 7 1.541667 0.220238
1
Total 11 37.66667
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept 3.416667 0.428406 7.9753 9.297E-05 2.403647 4.429686 2.403647
Q1 0.21875 0.402878 0.542968 0.604002 -0.733906 1.171406 -0.733906
Q2 -2.1875 0.392056 -5.579561 0.000834 -3.114565 -1.260435 -3.114565
Q3 -1.59375 0.385417 -4.135135 0.004376 -2.505116 -0.682384 -2.505116
t 0.40625 0.04148 9.79382 2.454E-05 0.308165 0.504335 0.308165
 3.416667
0.21875
Y
-2.1875 9
-1.59375 8
0.40625 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

8 10 12 14
Upper 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
4.429686 8.9077
1.171406 2.1693
-1.260435 0.1693
-0.682384 1.1693
0.504335
12 14
 Enrollment
Year Period Enrollment F 20
2001 1 6.5 6.1734 18
2002 2 8.1 7.6301 f(x) = 1.45666666666667 x + 4.71666666666667
16
2003 3 8.4 9.0868
14
2004 4 10.2 10.5435
12
2005 5 12.5 12.0002
10
2006 6 13.3 13.4569
2007 7 13.7 14.9136 8
2008 8 17.2 16.3703 6
2009 9 18.1 17.827 4
2010 10 19.2837 2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 Enrollment

667 x + 4.71666666666667

4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year (t) Revenue F
1 8.53 8.4294
2 10.84 10.833
3 12.98 12.913
4 14.11 14.6694
5 16.31 16.1022
6 17.21 17.2114
7 18.37 17.997
8 18.45 18.459
9 18.4 18.5974
10 18.43 18.4122
11 17.9034
 Revenue
20
18 f(x) = − 0.161780303030303 x² + 2.88897727272727 x + 5.70216666666667
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Revenue
20
f(x) = 1.10939393939394 x + 9.26133333333333
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Year Month t Rate F
2007 October 1 7.5019 7.4869 Rate
2007 November 2 7.421 7.4115
7.6
2007 December 3 7.3682 7.3361
2008 January 4 7.2405 7.2607 7.4 f(x) = − 0.075409696969697 x + 7.56227333333
2008 February 5 7.1644 7.1853
2008 March 6 7.0722 7.1099 7.2
2008 April 7 6.9997 7.0345
2008 May 8 6.9725 6.9591 7
2008 June 9 6.8993 6.8837
2008 July 10 6.8355 6.8083 6.8
2008 Auguest 11 6.7329
2008 September 12 6.6575 6.6

2008 October 13 6.5821

6.4
2008 November 14 6.5067 0 2 4 6
2008 December 15 6.4313
 Rate

09696969697 x + 7.56227333333333

4 6 8 10 12
Year Period Value F Error SE
1998 1 227 164.546 62.454 3900.502 1200
1999 2 305 247.001 57.999 3363.884
2000 3 332 329.456 2.544 6.471936 1000
f(x) =
2001 4 367 411.911 -44.911 2016.998
2002 5 419 494.366 -75.366 5680.034 800
2003 6 547 576.821 -29.821 889.292
600
2004 7 609 659.276 -50.276 2527.676
2005 8 715 741.731 -26.731 714.5464
400
2006 9 837 824.186 12.814 164.1986
2007 10 911 906.641 4.359 19.00088 200
2008 11 1076 989.096 86.904 7552.305
2439.537 0
0 2
MSE

Year Period Value F Error SE

1998 1 227 242.4808 -15.4808 239.6552
1999 2 305 278.1732 26.8268 719.6772
2000 3 332 324.2572 7.7428 59.95095
2001 4 367 380.7328 -13.7328 188.5898
2002 5 419 447.6 -28.6 817.96
2003 6 547 524.8588 22.1412 490.2327
2004 7 609 612.5092 -3.5092 12.31448
2005 8 715 710.5512 4.4488 19.79182
2006 9 837 818.9848 18.0152 324.5474
2007 10 911 937.81 -26.81 718.7761
2008 11 1076 1067.027 8.9732 80.51832
2009 12 1206.635 333.8195
MSE
 Value
1200

1000
f(x) = 82.4545454545454 x + 82.0909090909092
800

600

400

200

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Value
1200

1000 f(x) = 5.1958041958042 x² + 20.1048951048951 x + 217.181818181818

800

600

400

200

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
 Year (t) Y Q1 Q2 Q3
1 71 1 0 0
2 49 0 1 0
3 58 0 0 1
4 78 0 0 0
5 68 1 0 0
6 41 0 1 0
7 60 0 0 1
8 81 0 0 0
9 62 1 0 0
10 51 0 1 0
11 53 0 0 1
12 72 0 0 0
13 1 0 0
14 0 1 0
15 0 0 1
16 0 0 0

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.948873
R Square 0.90036
Adjusted R 0.862995
Standard E 4.555217
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1500 500 24.09639 0.000233
Residual 8 166 20.75
Total 11 1666

CoefficientStandard Et Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 77 2.629956 29.27806 2.006E-09 70.93531
Q1 -10 3.719319 -2.688664 0.027554 -18.57676
Q2 -30 3.719319 -8.065993 4.116E-05 -38.57676
Q3 -20 3.719319 -5.377329 0.000664 -28.57676
 F Y
67 90
47
57 80
77
70
67
47 60
57
77 50
67
40
47
57 30
77
67 20
47
10
57
77 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Significance F

Upper 95%Lower 95. Upper 95.0%

83.06469 70.93531 83.06469
-1.423235 -18.57676 -1.423235
-21.42324 -38.57676 -21.42324
-11.42324 -28.57676 -11.42324
 Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.989744
R Square 0.979592
Adjusted R 0.971939
Standard E 124.9667
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df
Regression 3
Residual 8
Total 11

Coefficients
Intercept 2491.667
Q1 -711.6667
Q2 -1511.667
Q3 326.6667
 Y
Y Q1 Q2 Q3 F 3500
1690 1 0 0 1780
940 0 1 0 979.997 3000
2625 0 0 1 2818.334
2500
2500 0 0 0 2491.667
1800 1 0 0 1780 2000
900 0 1 0 979.997
1500
2900 0 0 1 2818.334
2360 0 0 0 2491.667 1000
1850 1 0 0 1780
1100 0 1 0 979.997 500
2930 0 0 1 2818.334
0
2615 0 0 0 2491.667 0 2 4 6
1 0 0 1780
0 1 0 979.997
0 0 1 2818.334 Mô hình có dạng theo mùa + xu hướng
0 0 0 2491.667

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
SS MS F Significance F 11
5996942 1998981 128.003 4.234E-07 12
124933.3 15616.67 13
6121875 14
15
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0% 16
72.14954 34.53476 5.404E-10 2325.29 2658.044 2325.29 2658.044
102.0349 -6.974741 0.000116 -946.9595 -476.3739 -946.9595 -476.3739
102.0349 -14.8152 4.242E-07 -1746.959 -1276.374 -1746.959 -1276.374 SUMMARY OUTPUT
102.0349 3.20152 0.012584 91.37388 561.9595 91.37388 561.9595
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard E
Observatio

ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

Coefficients
Intercept
t
Q1
Q2
Q3
 Y

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

o mùa + xu hướng

Y t Q1 Q2 Q3 F
1690 1 1 0 0 1687.5
940 2 0 1 0 887.497
2625 3 0 0 1 2725.834
2500 4 0 0 0 2399.167
1800 5 1 0 0 1780
900 6 0 1 0 979.997
2900 7 0 0 1 2818.334
2360 8 0 0 0 2491.667
1850 9 1 0 0 1872.5
1100 10 0 1 0 1072.497
2930 11 0 0 1 2910.834
2615 12 0 0 0 2584.167
13 1 0 0 1965
14 0 1 0 1164.997
15 0 0 1 3003.334
16 0 0 0 2676.667

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
 0.995376
0.990774
0.985501
89.82788
12

df SS MS F Significance F
4 6065392 1516348 187.9215 3.371E-07
7 56483.33 8069.048
11 6121875

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
2306.667 82.00126 28.12965 1.844E-08 2112.765 2500.569 2112.765 2500.569
23.125 7.939738 2.912565 0.022578 4.350504 41.8995 4.350504 41.8995
-642.2917 77.11498 -8.329013 7.041E-05 -824.6396 -459.9437 -824.6396 -459.9437
-1465.417 75.04347 -19.52757 2.305E-07 -1642.866 -1287.967 -1642.866 -1287.967
349.7917 73.77265 4.741481 0.002104 175.3471 524.2363 175.3471 524.2363
Time Y H1 H2
1 25 1 0
2 28 0 1
3 35 0 0
4 50 0 0
5 60 0 0
6 60 0 0
7 40 0 0
8 35 0 0
9 30 0 0
10 25 0 0
11 25 0 0
12 20 0 0
13 28 1 0
14 30 0 1
15 35 0 0
16 48 0 0
17 60 0 0
18 65 0 0
19 50 0 0
20 40 0 0
21 35 0 0
22 25 0 0
23 20 0 0
24 20 0 0
25 35 1 0
26 42 0 1
27 45 0 0
28 70 0 0
29 72 0 0
30 75 0 0
31 60 0 0
32 45 0 0
33 40 0 0
34 25 0 0
35 25 0 0
36 25 0 0
37 1 0
38 0 1
39 0 0
40 0 0
41 0 0
42 0 0
43 0 0
 44 0 0
45 0 0
46 0 0
47 0 0
48 0 0

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.938869
R Square 0.881475
Adjusted R 0.82715
Standard E 6.69577
Observatio 36

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 11 8002.222 727.4747 16.2262
Residual 24 1076 44.83333
Total 35 9078.222

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 21.66667 3.865805 5.604698 9.074E-06
H1 7.666667 5.467073 1.402335 0.173618
H2 11.66667 5.467073 2.133988 0.043264
H3 16.66667 5.467073 3.048554 0.005528
H4 34.33333 5.467073 6.280021 1.718E-06
H5 42.33333 5.467073 7.743327 5.593E-08
H6 45 5.467073 8.231095 1.899E-08
H7 28.33333 5.467073 5.182541 2.619E-05
H8 18.33333 5.467073 3.353409 0.002643
H9 13.33333 5.467073 2.438843 0.022505
H10 3.333333 5.467073 0.609711 0.547783
H11 1.666667 5.467073 0.304855 0.763104

Time Y
1 25
2 28
3 35
4 50
5 60
6 60
 7 40
8 35
9 30
10 25
11 25
12 20
13 28
14 30
15 35
16 48
17 60
18 65
19 50
20 40
21 35
22 25
23 20
24 20
25 35
26 42
27 45
28 70
29 72
30 75
31 60
32 45
33 40
34 25
35 25
36 25
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 H11 F
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29.334
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33.334
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38.334
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 64
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 66.667
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 50
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 40
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 40
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 23.334
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21.667
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29.334
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33.334
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38.334
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 64
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 66.667
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 50
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 40
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 40
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 23.334
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21.667
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29.334
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33.334
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38.334
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 64
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 66.667
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 50
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 40
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 40
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 23.334
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21.667
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29.334
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33.334
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38.334
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 64
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 66.667
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 50
 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 40
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 40
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 23.334
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21.667

Significance F
1.56E-08

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
13.68804 29.6453 13.68804 29.6453
-3.616818 18.95015 -3.616818 18.95015
0.383182 22.95015 0.383182 22.95015
5.383182 27.95015 5.383182 27.95015
23.04985 45.61682 23.04985 45.61682
31.04985 53.61682 31.04985 53.61682
33.71652 56.28348 33.71652 56.28348
17.04985 39.61682 17.04985 39.61682
7.049849 29.61682 7.049849 29.61682
2.049849 24.61682 2.049849 24.61682
-7.950151 14.61682 -7.950151 14.61682
-9.616818 12.95015 -9.616818 12.95015

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 Y
80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
H11 t F
0 1 24.084 SUMMARY OUTPUT
0 2 28.085
0 3 33.085 Regression Statistics
0 4 50.752 Multiple R 0.976904
0 5 58.753 R Square 0.954341
0 6 61.42 Adjusted R 0.930519
0 7 44.754 Standard E 4.245202
0 8 34.754 Observatio 36
0 9 29.755
0 10 19.755 ANOVA
1 11 18.089 df SS MS F Significance F
0 12 16.423 Regression 12 8663.722 721.9769 40.06144 1.617E-12
0 13 29.34 Residual 23 414.5 18.02174
0 14 33.341 Total 35 9078.222
0 15 38.341
0 16 56.008 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
0 17 64.009 Intercept 11.16667 3.001811 3.719977 0.001125 4.956947
0 18 66.676 H1 12.47917 3.556046 3.509282 0.001885 5.122925
0 19 50.01 H2 16.04167 3.540615 4.530757 0.00015 8.717346
0 20 40.01 H3 20.60417 3.526596 5.842509 5.925E-06 13.30885
0 21 35.011 H4 37.83333 3.514005 10.76644 1.864E-10 30.56406
0 22 25.011 H5 45.39583 3.502857 12.95966 4.689E-12 38.14962
1 23 23.345 H6 47.625 3.493168 13.63376 1.662E-12 40.39883
0 24 21.679 H7 30.52083 3.484947 8.757904 8.771E-09 23.31167
0 25 34.596 H8 20.08333 3.478207 5.774047 6.99E-06 12.88811
0 26 38.597 H9 14.64583 3.472956 4.217109 0.000328 7.461476
0 27 43.597 H10 4.208333 3.4692 1.213056 0.237421 -2.968254
0 28 61.264 H11 2.104167 3.466945 0.606922 0.549847 -5.067755
0 29 69.265 t 0.4375 0.072212 6.05852 3.527E-06 0.288117
0 30 71.932
0 31 55.266
0 32 45.266
0 33 40.267
0 34 30.267
1 35 28.601
0 36 26.935
0 37 39.852
0 38 43.853
0 39 48.853
0 40 66.52
0 41 74.521
0 42 77.188
0 43 60.522
0 44 50.522
0 45 45.523
0 46 35.523
1 47 33.857
0 48 32.191
Significance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
17.37639 4.956947 17.37639
19.83541 5.122925 19.83541
23.36599 8.717346 23.36599
27.89949 13.30885 27.89949
45.10261 30.56406 45.10261
52.64205 38.14962 52.64205
54.85117 40.39883 54.85117
37.73 23.31167 37.73
27.27855 12.88811 27.27855
21.83019 7.461476 21.83019
11.38492 -2.968254 11.38492
9.276089 -5.067755 9.276089
0.586883 0.288117 0.586883
Year Y Q1 Q2
1 20 1 0
2 100 0 1
3 175 0 0
4 13 0 0
5 37 1 0
6 136 0 1
7 245 0 0
8 26 0 0
9 75 1 0
10 155 0 1
11 326 0 0
12 48 0 0
13 92 1 0
14 202 0 1
15 384 0 0
16 82 0 0
17 176 1 0
18 282 0 1
19 445 0 0
20 181 0 0
21 1 0
22 0 1
23 0 0
24 0 0

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.813564
R Square 0.661886
Adjusted R 0.59849
Standard E 78.65033
Observatio 20

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 3 193750 64583.33
Residual 16 98974 6185.875
Total 19 292724
 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 70 35.1735 1.990135
Q1 10 49.74284 0.201034
Q2 105 49.74284 2.110857
Q3 245 49.74284 4.925332
 Y
Q3 F 500
0 80 450
0 175 400
1 315 350
0 70 300
0 80
250
0 175
200
1 315
150
0 70
0 80 100
0 175 50
1 315 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 70
0 80
0 175
1 315
0 70
0 80
0 175
1 315
0 70
0 80
0 175 Year Y
1 315 1 20
0 70 2 100
3 175
4 13
5 37
6 136
7 245
8 26
9 75
10 155
11 326
12 48
13 92
14 202
15 384
F Significance F 16 82
10.44045 0.000477 17 176
18 282
19 445
 20 181
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0% 21
0.063945 -4.564486 144.5645 -4.564486 144.5645 22
0.843205 -95.45011 115.4501 -95.45011 115.4501 23
0.050874 -0.450107 210.4501 -0.450107 210.4501 24
0.000152 139.5499 350.4501 139.5499 350.4501
0 25

Q1 Q2 Q3 t F
1 0 0 1 -13.4 SUMMARY OUTPUT
0 1 0 2 81.6
0 0 1 3 221.6 Regression Statistics
0 0 0 4 -23.4 Multiple R 0.979745
1 0 0 5 33.3 R Square 0.959899
0 1 0 6 128.3 Adjusted R 0.949206
0 0 1 7 268.3 Standard E 27.97427
0 0 0 8 23.3 Observatio 20
1 0 0 9 80
0 1 0 10 175 ANOVA
0 0 1 11 315 df SS MS
0 0 0 12 70 Regression 4 280985.6 70246.4
1 0 0 13 126.7 Residual 15 11738.4 782.56
0 1 0 14 221.7 Total 19 292724
0 0 1 15 361.7
0 0 0 16 116.7 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
1 0 0 17 173.4 Intercept -70.1 18.237 -3.843835
0 1 0 18 268.4 Q1 45.025 18.0008 2.501278
0 0 1 19 408.4 Q2 128.35 17.83017 7.198473
0 0 0 20 163.4 Q3 256.675 17.72701 14.47932
1 0 0 21 220.1 t 11.675 1.10578 10.55816
0 1 0 22 315.1
0 0 1 23 455.1
0 0 0 24 210.1
 F Significance F
89.76487 2.738E-10

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

0.001594 -108.9712 -31.22876 -108.9712 -31.22876
0.024444 6.657206 83.39279 6.657206 83.39279
3.081E-06 90.34589 166.3541 90.34589 166.3541
3.193E-10 218.8908 294.4592 218.8908 294.4592
2.434E-08 9.318085 14.03191 9.318085 14.03191