Rice Monthly Research Report

February-2024

Rice Monthly Research Report

Contents

❖ Monthly Average Price & Domestic Market Scenario

❖ Yearly Procurement Trend
❖ Stock Position
❖ Export Scenario & Statistics
❖ Basmati Rice Seasonality
❖ Comparative Prices
❖ Price Projection
❖ India APY Estimates
❖ Balance Sheet
❖ Wholesale Monthly Price Analysis
❖ Rice Monthly Price Trend
❖ Month wise Rice Stock
❖ International Rice Market Scenario
❖ Global Rice Balance Sheet
❖ Monthly FOB Prices
❖ Mundra Port Comparative Prices
Price: ❖ International Market Analysis

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February-2024

Monthly Average Price & Domestic Market Scenario

• In January 2024, the
Monthly Average Price of Rice in Jan, 2024
wholesale price of rice
6000
in India dropped by
5000

Price (Rs./Qtl)
5.22% to Rs. 4,064 per
quintal, compared to the 4000

December 2023 price of 3000

Rs. 4,288 per quintal.
2000
However, it showed a
17.77% increase
compared to the prices
Prices January, 2024 Prices December, 2023 Prices January, 2023
in January 2023.
• Reportedly, the Government has procured around 622 Lakh MT paddy till end of Jan’24 from
various states for 2023-24 KMS.
State Procured Paddy Qty.
Andhra Pradesh 17.49
Bihar 19.33
Chhattisgarh 132.83
Haryana 58.93
Madhya Pradesh 35.95
Maharashtra 7.98
Odisha 42.16
Punjab 185.41
Tamil Nadu 5.91
Telangana 47.24
Uttarakhand 5.58
Uttara Pradesh 50.02
West Bengal 8.79
Others 4.97
All India 622.58

• In Telangana, the Civil Supplies Corporation is escalating the collection of Custom Milled Rice
(CMR) from rice millers. On January 27, 2024, a record 56,483 MT of CMR were gathered in a
single day. Over the past 50 days, the corporation has successfully accumulated 14.50 lakh MT of
CMR, averaging 30,000 tonnes daily. This marks a significant increase from the previous average
of 5,000 to 6,000 MT per day just two months ago.
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• To address the problem of spoiled food grain stored in open areas, the Food Corporation of India
(FCI) plans to enhance its storage facilities in major grain-producing states like Punjab and
Haryana. This initiative involves building additional warehouses, with a total capacity of 13 lakh
MT including 9 lakh MT in Punjab and 4 lakh MT in Haryana.
• The Indian Basmati rice export market has witnessed a decline in prices of approximately 5-6%
due to reduced demand caused by the Red Sea conflict. Major shipping companies are steering
clear of the Suez Canal route due to ongoing Houthi attacks, affecting nearly 15% of global trade
routed through the canal. The conflict has resulted in a nearly sevenfold increase in freight rates
for deliveries to Europe, the United States, and Gulf regions, leading to disruptions in demand.
• The central government has granted approval for the procurement of an extra 10 lakh MT of
fortified parboiled rice from Odisha. As per the request by Education minister to the Ministry of
Food and Public Distribution, on January 16, for the procurement of additional parboiled rice from
the state during the Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) of 2023-24 to benefit the farmers.

Rabi Rice Sowing Area in India (till 26th Jan’24)

Difference in
Area Covered
Area coverage
Sr. No. State
with Current
(Lakh Ha)
Week
2024 2023 2022
1 Andhra Pradesh 3.98 5.06 -1.08
2 Assam 1.46 1.28 0.19
3 Bihar 0.01 0.02 -0.01
4 Chhattisgarh 0.86 1.06 -0.20
5 Karnataka 0.08 0.11 -0.03
6 Kerala 0.80 0.83 -0.03
7 Odisha 0.37 0.69 -0.32
8 Tamil Nadu 11.74 11.80 -0.07
9 Telangana 12.32 13.46 -1.14
10 West Bengal 1.50 1.58 -0.07
11 Others 0.50 0.75 -0.25
Total 33.61 36.64 -3.03
• As per NFSM, 2023-24 Rabi sowing area for Paddy has reached 33.61 Lakh Ha. down by 8.26%
against 36.64 Lakh Ha. compared to the same period last year.

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Yearly Procurement Trend

• Till end of the Jan, 2023 the central pool had procured 622.58 LMT paddy for the 2023-24 KMS.

Government Paddy Procurement (MY-Oct-Sept)

960
880
800
Procurement in LMT

720
640
560
480
400
320
240
160
80
0
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 (till end of
Jan'24)

PADDY PROCUREMENT 5 YEAR AVERAGE

(Source: - FCI)

Stock Position
• As of Jan 2024, FCI rice stocks were at 181.76 LMT and 499.58 LMT of un-milled paddy in its
central pool, against the requirement of 76 LMT buffer on Jan 1st.

Export
• According to data from DGCIS, India's rice exports for the month of Nov - 2023 was at 7.60 Lakh
MT. This export figure comprises 3.70 Lakh MT of Non-Basmati rice, 4,308 MT of broken rice
and 3.86 Lakh MT of basmati rice.

Country November Export (in Lakh MT)

Saudi Arabia 0.85
Iran 0.61
Cote D Ivoire 0.55
UAE 0.40
Iraq 0.38
Liberia 0.36
Vietnam 0.34
Ghana 0.33
Benin 0.26
Kuwait 0.25
Somalia 0.25
USA 0.23

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Total 7.60

Rice Export Quantity

25.00

21.00
Quantity in Lakhs

17.00

13.00

9.00

5.00

1.00
Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19

May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20

May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21

May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22

May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23
Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23
Rice Export Statistics (in Lakh MT)
Non-Basmati Basmati Broken Rice Total
Month MY MY MY MY MY MY MY MY
2022-23 2023-24 2022-23 2023-24 2022-23 2023-24 2022-23 2023-24
October 12.25 4.32 2.54 3.01 0.31 0.05 15.10 7.37
November* 12.93 3.70 3.23 3.86 0.67 0.04 16.83 7.60
December 15.03 4.65 1.02 20.70
January 13.01 4.58 0.90 18.49
February 13.64 4.45 1.67 19.75
March 14.85 4.61 2.10 21.56
April 13.29 4.25 0.91 18.45
May 12.32 4.05 1.95 18.32
June 11.27 3.42 0.85 15.53
July 11.96 4.37 1.04 17.37
August 10.84 4.01 0.13 14.98
September 4.19 2.98 0.06 7.23
Total 145.58 8.02 47.13 6.87 11.61 0.09 204.32 14.98
Source-DGFT

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• Since December of last year, freight charges, particularly for West Coast destinations, have
increased by 30-50% due to the escalating conflict in the Red Sea. To bypass the Red Sea, major
shipping liners are rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, causing substantial delays of
14-20 days. This alternative route has led to increased freight and insurance costs, putting
additional pressure on exporters' profit margins.
• Indian exporters have been excluded by the United Nations from taking part in the rice
procurement tender for the World Food Program (WFP) because of India's restrictions on
exporting specific rice categories. The bans imposed by India have faced criticism from the United
States, the European Union (EU), and Canada, who view them as unnecessary trade barriers.
• Despite the ban on rice exports, India continues to supply food to specific countries, particularly
its strategic neighbors like Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam,
and Iran, along with the broader Asian region. These exports are done on government-to-
government level and facilitated by the National Cooperative Exports Ltd.
• The price of India's 5% broken parboiled rice remained between $520 to $527 per MT, showing
an increase from the previous month's range of $508 to $515 per MT amid good demand from
African and Asian countries. Whereas, Govt. also buying aggressively which makes price more
competitive.

Basmati Rice Seasonality

1121 Steam Wand Rice, Amritsar

1.10 8.0%
6.0%
1.05 4.0%
2.0%
1.00 0.0%
-2.0%
0.95 -4.0%
-6.0%
0.90 -8.0%
-10.0%
0.85 -12.0%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Monthly Price Performance Seasonality Index

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• As the new basmati season begins, prices generally experience a fall due to good availability,
exerting downward pressure. The long-term seasonality index, considering the past 5 years,
indicates weak prices during this phase. Nonetheless, as the season advances and supplies squeeze,
prices typically begin to rise again and remain higher till next season.

Comparative Rice Variety Prices of Delhi (Naya Bazaar) in Rs. /Quintal

Month Month Year % %
End Ago ago Change Change
Market Variety
31-Jan- 30-Dec- 31-Dec- from last from last
24 23 22 Month Year
1121 Raw Wand 9600 9800 9000 -2.04 6.67
1121 White Parboiled (Sella) 8300 8350 8200 -0.60 1.22
1121 Steam Wand 9300 9800 8900 -5.10 4.49
1718 Steam Wand 8500 8900 8500 -4.49 0.00
Delhi 1509 Steam wand 7900 8000 8400 -1.25 -5.95
Sugandha Steam 6800 7000 7500 -2.86 -9.33
Sarbati Steam Wand 5900 6300 6400 -6.35 -7.81
DB (Duplicate Basmati) Raw Wand 8200 8500 8200 -3.53 0.00
PR-11/14 Steam 4400 4600 4400 -4.35 0.00
Source-Agriwatch

Technical Analysis (Domestic market -1121 steam wand)

(Based on Naya bazar, Delhi Mandi prices)
Rice – Technical Outlook Rice 1121 steam wand, Naya Bazar Mandi prices -Monthly

Technical Chart:

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Technical Commentary:
• During the month under review, market went down and closed at 9,300 and making a low of 9,000
and a high of 9,800. Market has also breached up trendline and moving down.
• However, market has taken a support from key 9,000 level and trading below all EMA whereas, 18
and 50 EMA working as a long-term resistance.
• RSI is at 43, which is in neutral zone with weakened buying strength, while, MACD is diverging
from its signal line in positive territory with weak momentum.

Recommendation-

• Price have gone down significantly and likely to remain sideways to weak as participant are
recommended to sell if held any stock.

Rice Price Outlook for coming week (Naya Bazar 1121 Steam): Monthly price closed at INR.
9,300/qtl. and is expected to remain in the range of INR 8,700-9,700 in a short run.

Price Projection for Next Month (December) in Naya Bazar Market

Rice Price Outlook Previous Month Month under review Next Month
(INR. /Qtl) December’23 January’24 February’24
Monthly Average Price 9,973 9,465 8,700-9,700
Area, Yield and Production Forecast for Kharif 2023-24 (AW 3rd Estimates)

Area Production Yield

State
('million Ha.) (‘million MT) (Kg/Ha)
Andhra Pradesh 1.18 4.12 3490
Assam 1.80 3.15 1750
Bihar 3.25 7.12 2190
Chhattisgarh 3.75 7.31 1950
Haryana 1.35 4.24 3140
Maharashtra 1.53 2.75 1800
Madhya Pradesh 3.26 6.10 1870
Odisha 3.33 5.96 1790
Punjab 3.05 12.51 4100
Telangana 2.56 8.35 3260
Uttar Pradesh 5.89 13.72 2330
West Bengal 3.95 10.07 2550

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Others 5.26 13.68 2600

Total 40.16 99.07 2467

India Current (MY Oct-Sep) Balance Sheet

Particulars (Million MT) 2022-23 2023-24*

Carry in 27.46 20.94

Production 114.90 115.24

Imports 0.00 0.00

Total Availability 142.36 136.17

Consumption 101.00 100.40

Exports 20.43 8.00

Total Usage 121.43 108.40

Carry out 20.93 27.77

Stock to use ratio 17.24% 25.62%

*AW Forecast

State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Rice January, 2024
(In Rs/Quintal)

Prices Prices % Change

Prices % Change (Over
State January, December, (Over Previous
January, 2023 Previous Year)
2024 2023 Month)

Bihar 2861 __ __
Gujarat 5353 5346 4193 0.13 27.67
Karnataka 5499 5060 4203 8.68 30.84
Kerala 4527 4426 4058 2.28 11.56
Madhya Pradesh 4328 __ __
Maharashtra 4173 4401 3978 -5.18 4.9
Manipur 5046 3221 __ __
Meghalaya 6713 __ __
NCT of Delhi 2816 4500 __ __
Odisha 3315 3130 2448 5.91 35.42
Rajasthan 4464 4810 -7.19 __
Tripura 3819 3810 3225 0.24 18.42

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Uttar Pradesh 2791 2741 2584 1.82 8.01

Uttarakhand 3008 3603 2848 -16.51 5.62
West Bengal 3718 3811 3296 -2.44 12.8
Average 4066 4288 3451
Source-AGMARKNET

Rice Monthly Price Trend

Rice Monthly Average Price

4500
4300
Fig. in Rs/Quintal

4100
3900
3700
3500
3300
3100
2900
2700
2500
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24

Source-AGMARKNET

Month-wise Rice Stock in Central Pool (in million MT)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2019 18.29 22.79 26.39 29.39 29.05 27.58 28.42 27.53 26.14 24.91 23.10 21.27

2020 23.71 27.45 30.97 32.23 28.50 27.44 27.17 25.34 22.19 19.30 16.79 14.54

2021 18.66 24.36 28.23 29.11 30.48 29.92 29.68 29.11 26.83 25.32 22.92 21.30

2022 22.15 26.34 23.40 32.32 33.27 33.12 31.70 27.95 24.46 20.46 16.59 11.54

2023 12.53 16.96 21.05 24.86 26.50 26.22 23.29 24.29 23.28 22.18 20.03 18.35

2024 18.17
Source-FCI

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International Market
• Vietnam's 5% broken rice has decreased to $647 per MT, down from the previous month's range
of $655 per MT. This decline is attributed to the accumulation of domestic supplies since the
beginning of the harvest, especially in the Mekong Delta, which is anticipated to peak in March.
Trading activity is sluggish as buyers are delaying purchases, expecting further price reductions
in anticipation of stronger supplies from the upcoming winter-spring harvest.
• The prices for Thailand's 5% broken rice were noted at $663-$665 per MT, reflecting a slight
decrease from the previous week's $665 per MT. The softening of prices was influenced by a
weakened baht. Nevertheless, sustained prices were supported by domestic activity and a new
order of 0.5 million MT from Indonesia.
• To address a rice deficit occurring from El Nino, the Indonesian government has imported 2.5
million MT of rice in January 2024. The majority, 2 million MT, is sourced from Thailand and
Vietnam, and an additional 0.5 million MT from Myanmar in the anticipation of the upcoming
Ramadan and Eid 2024. Additionally, the government aims to cultivate rice on over one million
hectares of agricultural land by 2024.
• On December 30, 2023, the Russian Government declared an extension of the rice export ban until
June 30, 2024. Additionally, they granted approval for duty-free grain exports from newly
incorporated regions of Russia for the year 2024. This decision was taken to maintain stability
within the domestic market. Notably, this ban will not impact member nations of the Eurasian
Economic Union, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia.
• Myanmar exported 953,502 MT of rice and broken rice during the initial nine months of the fiscal
year 2023-24. Specifically, the exports for December includes 101,156 MT of rice and 94,672 MT
of broken rice.
• The Indonesian state purchasing agency, BULOG, has released a global tender to procure 500,000
MT of rice. The agency is seeking white rice to be delivered in February and March, and the
deadline for submitting offers is scheduled for January 29. The accepted source countries for the
rice include Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Pakistan, India, and China.

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Global Rice Balance Sheet

Attributes 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 (Proj.)
2020-21
(Fig in Million Tons) (Est.) (Fore.) 16.11.2023 11.01.2024
Production 509 514 514 521 511
Trade 51 55 51 50 50
Consumption 510 520 520 520 516
Carryover stocks 181 176 170 171 166
Y-O-Y change -1 -6 -6 -5
Major Exporters 49 44 42 45 43
Note: Major exporters are India, Thailand and Vietnam

• Due to a revision in expectations for major Asian producers, the world rice output forecast for the
2023/24 season is reduced by 10 million MT month-on-month. This decrease in overall
availability is reflected in lowered figures for both consumption and stocks. The global inventory
witnesses a 5 million MT m/m reduction, due to smaller figures for China and major exporting
countries. Despite a downward adjustment in the projection for India, the global trade remains
relatively unchanged m/m at 50 million tons, with increases observed for other supplying nations.

Monthly FOB (US Dollar/MT)

Thai 25% broken Vietnam 25% broken India 25% broken

Month
rice rice rice
January 24* 578.65 612.60 -
December 23 565.23 618.09 -
November 23 555.09 615.26 -
October 23 565.48 607.03 -
September 23 574.36 598.73 492.64
August 23 538.09 535.54 459.60
July 23 490.25 490.83 446.88
June 23 479.29 493.33 428.74
May-23 475.20 460.26 427.36
Apr-23 469.49 445.44 423.38
Mar-23 469.68 435.35 414.78
Feb-23 473.52 438.49 403.41
Jan-23 447.74 430.83 385.48

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Mundra Port Comparative Price

31st 30th % Change

PORT Variety January, December, From last
24 23 month
1121 RAW/WHITE 1275 1300 -1.92%
- 1121 STEAM RICE 1235 1260 -1.98%
- 1718 RAW/ WHITE RICE 1210 1235 -2.02%
- 1509 STEAM RICE 1015 1065 -4.69%
Mundra - 1401 STEAM RICE 1115 1150 -3.04%
- PUSA RAW/ WHITE RICE 1115 1175 -5.11%
- TRADITIONAL RAW/ WHITE RICE 1360 1425 -4.56%
- SUGANDHA RAW/ WHITE RICE Prohibited Prohibited -
- PR11/14 RAW/ WHITE RICE Prohibited Prohibited -
Source-Agriwatch / Trades

Rice Price Trend – CBOT@ CBOT March - 24, Rough Rice - Continuous Chart)
(Prices in US$/hundredweight)

• The Rough Rice Future continuous contract for March'24 on CBOT remained firm and closed at
18.11 with that making a high of 18.19 and low of 17.88 during January’24.
• Over the year up trendline formation observed and taking support from that key level.
• RSI at 66 which and in neutral zone which indicates sideways to positive momentum.
• The MACD indicator is converging to its signal line in positive territory which indicates sideways
to positive momentum.

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Duration Trend Support Resistance

January-2024 Sideways to firm Support – 16.2 Resistance – 19.0

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