IN12361

INSIGHTi
The June 2024 European Parliament Elections:

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May 15, 2024

The 27 member states of the European Union (EU) are scheduled to hold elections for the 720 members
of the next European Parliament (EP) between June 6 and 9, 2024. The only directly elected EU
institution, the EP represents the bloc’s nearly 450 million citizens and has a role in approving most EU
legislation. As the EP has accumulated more power over time, Congress has engaged the EP on certain
aspects of U.S.-EU relations, including through forums such as the Transatlantic Legislators’ Dialogue.
Expected electoral gains for parties considered euroskeptic—that is, critical of the EU or anti-EU to
varying degrees—may influence the functioning of the EP and the EU, as well as the conduct of U.S.-EU
relations. (See also CRS In Focus IF11211, The European Parliament and U.S. Interests, and CRS Report
RS21372, The European Union: Questions and Answers.)
Possible Election Outcomes and Implications

Members of the EP (MEPs) serve five-year terms and are organized into groups that caucus according to
political orientation rather than nationality. A political group must consist of at least 23 MEPs from a
minimum of seven EU countries. In the 2019-2024 EP, there were seven political groups—spanning the
political spectrum and including over 200 national parties—and several “nonattached” or independent
MEPs. The relative size of the political groups helps determine EP leadership and committee posts.
Congressional Research Service

https://crsreports.congress.gov
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Congressional Research Service 2
Table 1. The European Parliament

2024 Election
Political Group Current Seats
Seat Projections
European People’s Party (EPP; center right) 177 174
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D; center left) 139 144
Renew Europe (RE; centrist, liberal) 102 85
Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA; greens and regionalists) 72 43
European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR; right wing, euroskeptic) 68 70
Identity and Democracy (ID; far right, euroskeptic) 58 84
The Left (far left and former communists) 37 32
Nonattached 52 88
Total Seats 705 720
Sources: European Parliament (current seats); Politico Europe Poll of Polls (election projections), as of May 15, 2024.
Notes: The overall size of the next EP is set to increase due to EU demographic changes. Nonattached seat projections
include likely independent MEPs and MEPs from new or currently unaffiliated political parties that may ultimately join a
political group in the new EP.
The center-right EPP and the center-left S&D have tended to cooperate to dominate past parliaments, but
no single political group has ever held a majority in the EP, making compromise and coalition-building
essential features of the EP. Especially since the 2014 EP elections, euroskeptic parties have gained seats
but have struggled to forge a cohesive opposition. Some euroskeptic parties in the EP are on the right or
far right and are nationalist and anti-immigration, whereas others are on the left or far left. Some
euroskeptic parties advocate for EU reforms and greater member state sovereignty rather than an end to
the EU or withdrawal from the bloc.
As indicated in Table 1, polls suggest that EPP and S&D will remain the two largest groups in the next
EP, while centrist RE and the Greens/EFA are expected to lose seats. Euroskeptic ECR and ID are
expected to gain, in part due to voter concerns about migration, the economy, and certain EU climate
policies. Pro-EU groups (EPP, S&D, RE, and Greens/EFA) are projected to retain a combined majority in
the next EP, but voting coalitions may vary by policy issue. Increased fragmentation could enable
euroskeptic MEPs to influence EP positions on issues such as migration, climate change, and EU
integration and enlargement, especially if the EPP or other groups embrace similar views. EPP leaders
indicate openness to cooperating with parties to its right that are pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine, and pro-rule of
law (primarily some currently in the ECR group, such as the party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia
Meloni).
The composition of the political groups, particularly ECR and ID, also could change in the next EP. Some
in ECR and ID reportedly are considering a possible merger, but rivalries and policy divisions between
and within the two groups (including on attitudes toward Russia) cast doubt on this option. Some in ECR
appear eager to expand to include the nationalist-conservative Hungarian party led by Prime Minister
Viktor Orban, but doing so could prompt other parties to leave ECR due to what they regard as Orban’s
pro-Russian sympathies and tepid support for Ukraine.
The EP elections may affect the leadership of the European Commission (the EU’s executive body). EU
member states are required to take the EP election results “into account” in choosing the next commission
president. The EP, which must approve the commission president by a majority vote, maintains that the
post should go to the “lead candidate” of the political group that wins the most EP seats.
Congressional Research Service 3
U.S. and Congressional Interests

The outcome of the elections could affect EP positions in several areas of U.S.-EU relations of possible
interest to Congress, including
• Trade. The EP must approve new EU trade agreements, including a potential U.S.-EU
critical minerals agreement (aimed at easing U.S.-EU tensions over U.S. clean energy
subsidies in P.L. 117-169, commonly referred to as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022).
• Data protection and digital policies. The EP has played a central role in shaping the
EU’s approach to data protection, artificial intelligence, and new digital rules. Some in
Congress have expressed concern about the effects of such policies on U.S. companies,
especially U.S. technology firms, doing business in Europe.
• Ukraine and Russia. The Biden Administration and the EU have cooperated in
responding to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The EP must approve certain EU
budgetary support measures for Ukraine. Many MEPs back Ukraine, but concerns exist in
the EP about some parties’ traditional ties to Russia and Russia’s alleged attempts to
influence some MEPs.
• China. Similar to some U.S. policymakers, some MEPs are wary about China’s rise and
concerned with its human rights and labor practices. In 2021, the EP froze work on
ratifying an EU-China investment agreement that U.S. officials opposed. Some MEPs
also are troubled by China’s possible interference operations and alleged cyberattacks.
Author Information
Kristin Archick
Specialist in European Affairs
Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of
information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role.
CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United
States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS. However,
as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the
permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.
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INSIGHTi

The June 2024 European Parliament Elections:

May 15, 2024

Possible Election Outcomes and Implications

Congressional Research Service

Table 1. The European Parliament

U.S. and Congressional Interests

IN12361 · VERSION 2 · NEW

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