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Estimation of the Indonesian drought based on phenology vegetation analysis

of maize

Article in IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · September 2023
DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/1230/1/012144

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Estimation of the Indonesian drought based on phenology vegetation

analysis of maize
To cite this article: Muhammad Iqbal Habibie and Nety Nurda 2023 IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 1230 012144

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FSSAT-4 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1230 (2023) 012144 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1230/1/012144

Estimation of the Indonesian drought based on phenology

vegetation analysis of maize

Muhammad Iqbal Habibie1 and Nety Nurda2

1
National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Cibinong, Indonesia
2
National Resilience Institute of the Republic of Indonesia (LEMHANAS), Jakarta,
Indonesia

Email: iqbalhabibie0684@gmail.com, muha105@brin.go.id

Abstract. Climate change has a widespread influence on food essentials. Climate change is a
pressing issue in Indonesia, a rapidly developing country. As a result, to forecast dryness during
maize production in Indonesia's Central East Java districts, it was proposed that a study be done
on vegetation phenology. The study uses the vegetation to calculate the NDWI (Water Index)
and Temperature (LST), calculate drought severity based on precipitation data. NDWI and LST
were obtained from Landsat 8 OLI with a spatial resolution of 30 m and were used to identify
water shortage and temperature within the study area. The inquiry was finished in 2018 and
showed that the vegetation phenology was based on the growing season. The growing season
of maize report from the NDVI (Vegetation Index) trajectories that April 2018 was the maize
planting season, and the harvest was completed in later August. Additionally, LST analysis
found that the temperature was higher in mid and southern Central East Java, Indonesia. To
validate the data, rainfall information was used to compute the drought severity using SPI
method to identify drought-prone areas. Drought severity validation data were validated for
vegetation phenology analysis in 2018.

1. Introduction
In recent decades, there has been an increasing body of evidence demonstrating that Climate change
has several direct and indirect implications on global and individual health [1]. Climate has a large
impact on population dynamics and migratory patterns is significant. It also influences population
growth, development, and dispersal trends. Temperature and precipitation changes may have an
influence on plant phenology, the severity of winters, drought and wildfire conditions, the distribution
and abundance of invasive species, predation, and disease in a direct or indirect manner. Indirect
implications of these changes include the spread and abundance of exotic species, predation, and
sickness [2]. As a result of global warming, sea levels may rise, and rainfall patterns may vary.
Furthermore, it may increase the frequency of extreme weather events such as floods, forest fires, and
droughts., which can disrupt public health infrastructure and increase mortality, morbidity, and
disability, as well as the incidence of infectious diseases and psychiatric disorders [3]. Due to the
variability of rainfall and the scarcity of data, obtaining comprehensive and reliable rainfall observation
data is challenging [4–6]. One of them used GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation)
satellite data with high spatial and temporal resolution to tackle this problem, demonstrating that
satellite technology can collect rainfall data for a region area [7]. However, because satellite

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FSSAT-4 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1230 (2023) 012144 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1230/1/012144

measurements are indirect, the data contains more uncertainties because cloud top reflectivity, heat
radiation, as well as intermittent satellite communications overflights are all inaccurate [8].
To characterize patterns of change in vegetation phenology, two factors can be used: phenology,
which is used as a landscape predictor of variability in plant response over time, and basic
environmental variables, which consistently drive vegetation dynamics in a specific location year after
year [9]. Drought has also harmed one of Central East Java's most important maize harvests [10].
Droughts can be caused by weather, agriculture, hydrology, or economic factors [11,12]. There are
presently no services in Indonesia that give detailed information about the drought to the public. The
Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency provides the sole meteorological
drought warnings (BMKG). A meteorological drought is defined as a temporary decrease in
precipitation relative to the average [13]. In meteorological, drought that occurs during sub-normal
precipitation in an area during a certain period, agricultural drought generally a period of reduced soil
moisture and resultant crop failure due to lack of surface water. Agricultural drought definitions also
relate different characteristics of weather drought. Hydrological drought is associated with the effects
of reducing the flow frequency of surface or ground water (such as rivers, reservoirs, lakes, and
groundwater) [14]. The drought's severity is defined by the ratio of precipitation to what is considered
typical for that time, and the length is calculated by how long the dry state lasts. A meteorological
drought has an impact on agriculture by limiting the quantity of dam water available for irrigation and
causing a groundwater shortage, which may lead to crop failure. If the meteorological drought
continues, a hydrological drought, defined as a decreased supply of surface water and groundwater
based on river, reservoir, lake, and groundwater levels, might occur.
Central East Java was the most impact in the drought-prone areas based on the weather monitoring
system. The monitoring for drought areas were utilized the vegetation phenology with Google Earth
Engine (GEE) [15]. GEE is a cloud platform that enables global geospatial data parallel processing
[16] and provides remote sensing for massive data analysis [17]. GEE stands for geospatial processing
service. Earth Engine can do large-scale geospatial processing that includes geophysical, climate and
weather, and imagery facilities, as well as ready products like Terrain, Surface Temperature,
Atmospheric, Cropland, Land Cover and other satellite image sensors [18]. GEE is a web-based code
editor for data exploration, visualization, and categorization on cloud platform [19,20].
The BMKG agency usually forecast the drought by the rainfall event. In this study we purpose to
determine which data sets and algorithms are more efficient and reliable in time-series analysis of
vegetation phenology and predicting weather for drought periods during the maize growing season and
validated the vegetation with the assessment of the precipitation data.

2. Material and methods

2.1. Study area

Central East Java, which includes Gresik, Lamongan, Malang, Mojokerto, Pasuruan, Sidoarjo, Tuban,
Batu City, Malang City, Mojokerto City, Pasuruan City, and Surabaya City, is made up of twelve
regencies. Rice, maize, cassava, and a variety of vegetables are all important crops. Irrigation water
was supplied by rivers flowing from the nation's northern region, which is also crossed by the Surabaya
River to the south.

2.2. Methods
The image was evaluated and validated using satellite remote sensing in the study. The satellite image
was created using ArcGIS 10.4.1® and incorporates the vegetation phenology of the NDVI, NDWI,
and the land surface temperature (LST) from Landsat 8 OLI data. To guarantee data accuracy, we
compare two sets of precipitation data from two different sources: the Local Station and Global Rainfall
MAP (GSMap, JAXA) Agency,BMKG. The use of data and precipitation this year was necessitated
by a drought in 2018. Figure 1 shows an example.

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1230 (2023) 012144 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1230/1/012144

Figure 1. Drought forecasting framework for Central East Java.

2.2.1. Vegetation Phenology. Phenology is a valuable approach for studying the cycles of vegetative
development. Phenology is sensitive to climate change and provides important information for
researching trends in biological processes or climatology, which may track the impacts of climate
change at various world scales. Landsat 8 OLI was used to compute vegetation phenology such as
NDVI, NDWI, and LST. Maize phenology is an important topic for farmers since it affects the time of
planting, fertilization, and harvesting and it is a critical phase that varies based on maize type, climate,
and local growth circumstances. Farmers can use a variety of strategies to keep track of the phenology
of their maize crops. They can, for example, use satellite imagery to examine plant emergence and
development, or to estimate pollination time by measuring the growth of tassels and silks. Using this
information, they could plan crop planting and harvesting, as well as fertilizer and other input
applications.

2.2.1.1. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The NDVI may be used to depict horizontal
and vertical geographical and temporal distributions, as well as vegetative cultivation and biomass, and
a few vegetational properties, such as plant features, production, and temperature impacts on the plant.
GEE was utilized for high-performance computation to investigate vegetation phenology in equation
1. Figure 2 shows an example.

NDVI = (NIR - Red) / (NIR + Red) (1)

where:
NIR stands for near-infrared reflectance and Red represents the red reflectance value.

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1230 (2023) 012144 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1230/1/012144

Figure 2. Vegetation phenology NDVI.

2.2.1.2. NDWI. The NDWI is used for waterbody research. The index is based on data from remote
sensing in the green and SWIR bands. It overestimates the importance of water bodies and makes them
vulnerable to land development. It is utilized to detect and map the presence of water in soil and plant
life.

NDWI = (Green - SWIR) / (Green + SWIR) (2)

where:
Green stands for green reflectance and SWIR stand for short-wave infrared reflectance.

2.2.1.3. LST. The LST is an element in formulating regional energy and water budgets, several
environmental factors, including biodiversity, drought, urban growth, and climate change.

2.2.2. Data access of precipitation. Global Rainfall MAP (GSMap, JAXA) and BMKG Agency are
the two sources of precipitation dataset. The GSMAP were obtained from the website
https://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP/ and the local station were obtain from BMKG Agency.

2.2.2.1. Global precipitation datasets. Because it is based on a microwave radiometer algorithm that
is compatible with a precipitation radar algorithm, GSMaP's overall precipitation map has a high
temporal and spatial resolution (Figure 3). GSMaP, which is funded by JAXA and JST. GSMaP has
created a worldwide precipitation map based from many satellites as part of the Global Precipitation
Measurement (GPM) Mission, which uses dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) within the GPM
core spacecraft. The datasets were updates hourly with global precipitation statistics.

Figure 3. Monitoring precipitation on May 2018 using GSMap.

2.2.2.2. Local precipitation datasets. The data precipitation gauge from the precipitation analysis were
provided by the BMKG Agency. Precipitation observation data for the study area's stations, including
the Tuban Regency station, were available. These stations were set up using 2016 rain gauge data, and

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1230 (2023) 012144 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1230/1/012144

the rain gauge was useful for analyzing precipitation monitoring in Figure 4. The Tuban Regency
experienced a dry year in 2018, with February receiving the most rain and may receiving the least.
During the reference period, the average trend in Tuban Regency was 13 mm per month. The most
precipitation fell in the first month of 2018. Precipitation estimates for the study region indicate a drop
between April and September and an increase between October and February. The total amount of
precipitation was compared to worldwide precipitation databases.

Figure 4. The Selection of Local Precipitation in Central East Java.

3. Results and discussion

3.1. Vegetation indices analysis

Vegetation indicators are used to measure maize status during the growing season. The 2018 NDVI
agricultural season runs from April until the end of August. According to additional indicators such as
the NDWI, which was found in April 2018 (Figure 5), the growing season and maize planting were
both dry. LST was enhanced in a same manner in the southern and central regions of Indonesia's East
Java (Figure 6).

Figure 5. From left to right, monitoring growing season Maize analyze utilizing NDWI in Central
East Java (a) Planting, (b) Reproductive, (c) Harvest.

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1230 (2023) 012144 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1230/1/012144

Figure 6. From left to right, monitoring growing season Maize analyze utilizing LST in Central East
Java during the growing season (a) Planting, (b) Reproductive, (c) Harvest.

3.2. Validation data

We use GSMap and Local Station to validate the data. The Indonesia Meteorological and Climate
Agency provided local stations, and JAXA in Japan developed GSMap. The Standard Precipitation
Index was used to calculate both precipitations (SPI). The gamma function, as seen below, represented
the SPI in the cumulative distribution (3):
−𝑥𝑖
𝑥 1 𝑥 ⁄𝛽
𝐺(𝑥𝑖 ) = ∫0 𝑖 𝑔(𝑋𝑖 ) 𝑑𝑥𝑖 = 𝑖
∫0 𝑡 𝛼−1 𝑒 𝑑𝑥𝑖 (3)
𝛽𝛼 Г(𝛼)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) claims that the 3-month SPI is more useful for
emphasizing the presence of moisture in agricultural regions [21] in Table 1. SPI compares
precipitation over three months to the entire year, which is part of the long-term historical data.

Table 1. Classification SPI WMO.

SPI Values Classification of SPI
2 and above Extremely moisture
1.5 – 1.99 Very moisture
1.0 – 1.49 Moderately moisture
-0.99 – 0.99 About average
-1.0 – 1.49 Moderately arid
-1.5 – 1.99 Severely arid
-2.0 and less Extremely arid

In this study, we compared vegetal phenology in drought-prone regions to a three-month SPI.

According to SPI data, the months of April through October of 2018 were dry. The SPI fluctuated
between -1.21 to -1.34 throughout this time period, as seen in table 1. Following a drop in September,
the SPI index fell even further in October (See Figure 7).

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1230 (2023) 012144 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1230/1/012144

Figure 7. From left to right: (a) Tuban, (b) Gresik regency compared using GSMap and BMKG
Precipitation.

4. Conclusion
This study was conducted at the provincial level to categorize areas that are vulnerable to drought for
maize production using vegetation phenology and a drought severity index. The analysis of vegetation
indices was required for processing the vegetation phenology. The NDVI, NDWI, and LST were
employed in the phenology. The NDVI can be used to determine both the vegetation profile pattern
and the growing season of a plant. NDWI was used to assess the region's water scarcity for agricultural
reasons, while LST was utilized to correlate it with temperature. The severity index was generated
using SPI, whereas the phenology of the plants was determined using NDWI and LST. According to
the findings, the comparison of vegetation phenology and drought severity took place concurrently
between April and October of this year, which is the maize growing season. In vegetation analysis, we
saw for NDVI could identify the growing season of crop where in the study we focus for maize crops,
and NDWI could identify the waterbody. In figure 5, the reproductive stage in July 2018 the waterbody
shows red not blue in the southern area or in Malang District. In figure 6, LST helps to understand the
temperature surface of the land where in Malang and in the middle Central East Java show dark
chocolate color. The validation data were compared using Jaxa Gauge and Local Station, the results
on August show SPI with -1.77 among all part of this region in Central East Java. With high
temperatures and little rain, stakeholders and farmers can use this research to help prevent a drought.
A more thorough analysis using vegetation phenology [22] and object detection [23,24] will be used
to validate the yield model. Predicting vegetation phenology and drought severity also assists in the
prevention of crop decreases and the provision of local food security.

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