8614 Ist
8614 Ist
8614 Ist
Q.1
Scientific method is a systematic way to identify and solve problems. Discuss.
Ans
The scientific method is the process of objectively establishing facts through testing and
experimentation. The basic process involves making an observation, forming a
hypothesis, making a prediction, conducting an experiment and finally analyzing the
results. The principals of the scientific method can be applied in many areas, including
scientific research, business and technology.
The scientific method uses a series of steps to establish facts or create knowledge. The
overall process is well established, but the specifics of each step may change depending
on what is being examined and who is performing it. The scientific method can only
answer questions that can be proven or disproven through testing.
Make an observation or ask a question. The first step is to observe something that
you would like to learn about or ask a question that you would like answered. These can
be specific or general. Some examples would be "I observe that our total
available network bandwidth drops at noon every weekday" or "How can we increase our
website registration numbers?" Taking the time to establish a well-defined question will
help you in later steps.
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Gather background information. This involves doing research into what is already
known about the topic. This can also involve finding if anyone has already asked the
same question.
Create a prediction and perform a test. Create a testable prediction based on the
hypothesis. The test should establish a noticeable change that can be measured or
observed using empirical analysis. It is also important to control for
other variables during the test. Some examples would be "If we block video-sharing
sites, our available bandwidth will not go down significantly during lunch" or "If we make
our registration box bigger, a greater percentage of visitors will register for our website
than before the change."
Analyze the results and draw a conclusion. Use the metrics established before the
test see if the results match the prediction. For example, "After blocking video-sharing
sites, our bandwidth utilization only went down by 10% from before; this is not enough
of a change to be the primary cause of the network congestion" or "After increasing the
size of the registration box, the percent of sign-ups went from 2% of total page views to
5%, showing that making the box larger results in more registrations."
Share the conclusion or decide what question to ask next: Document the results
of your experiment. By sharing the results with others, you also increase the total body
of knowledge available. Your experiment may have also led to other questions, or if your
hypothesis is disproven you may need to create a new one and test that. For example,
"Because user activity is not the cause of excessive bandwidth use, we now suspect that
an automated process is running at noon every day."
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Using the scientific method in technology and computers
Most modern computer systems are complicated and difficult to troubleshoot. Using the
scientific method of hypothesis and testing can greatly simplify the process of tracking
down errors and it can help find areas of improvement. It can also help when you
evaluate new technologies before implementation.
Many business processes benefit when using the scientific method. Shifting business
landscapes and complex business relationships can make behaviors hard to predict or
act counter to previous history. Instead of using gut feelings or previous experience, a
scientific approach can help businesses grow. Big data initiative can make business
information more available and easier to test with.
The scientific method can be applied in many areas. Customer satisfaction and retention
numbers can be analyzed and tested upon. Profitability and finance numbers can be
analyzed to form new conclusions. Making predictions on changing business practices
and checking the results will help to identify and measure success or failure of the
initiatives.
The scientific method is a powerful tool. Like any tool, though, if it is misused it can
cause more damage than good.
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The scientific method can only be used for testable phenomenon. This is known
as falsifiability. While much in nature can be tested and measured, some areas of human
experience are beyond objective observation.
Both proving and disproving the hypothesis are equally valid outcomes of testing. It is
possible to ignore the outcome or inject bias to skew the results of a test in a way that
will fit the hypothesis. Data in opposition to the hypothesis should not be discounted.
It is important to control for other variables and influences during testing to not skew
the results. While difficult, not accounting for these could produce invalid data. For
example, testing bandwidth during a holiday or measuring registrations during a sale
event may introduce other factors that influence the outcome.
Another common pitfall is mixing correlation with causation. While two data points may
seem to be connected, it is not necessarily true that once is directly influenced by the
other. For example, an ice cream stand in town sees drops in business on the hottest
days. While the data may look like the hotter the weather, the less people want ice
cream, the reality is that more people are going to the beach on those days and less are
in town.
The scientific method can be used for various purposes, such as:
Describing how nature works. It's hard to accurately describe how nature
works because there may be limited observations, which can lead to wrong
conclusions. In most cases, all you can do is make assumptions. You can use the
scientific method to disprove assumptions about the natural world by identifying
flaws in the reasoning.
Lab scientific research. Since scientists use the scientific method when they
perform experiments, you might be able to replicate research if you have the
same equipment and follow the same procedures.
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Developing critical thinking. Using the scientific method may help you develop
critical thinking in your daily life because you get used to logically finding answers.
Without logical reasoning, you might be more likely to have a distorted
perspective. Having a distorted perspective can make you draw inaccurate
conclusions.
It's a standardized approach. The steps used in the scientific method are
systematic, so scientists conduct experiments in a standardized manner. This
means that their experiments can become more widespread.
It eliminates bias. Bias is the tendency to favor your own point of view over
those of others. You can eliminate bias in experiments with the help of a scientific
approach because experiments require objectivity. The scientific method requires
you to carefully record any experimental detail so that it can be mirrored and
publicized. To accomplish this, the results of your experiment should be neutral.
The scientific method comes in handy when an organization's or scientist's
affiliations may lead to bias.
It helps create theories. Theories are general principles obtained from facts that
can be used to explain observations and predict future events. When a hypothesis
is tested and proven to be right, it is converted into a theory like Einstein's theory
of relativity.
It can solve problems. With the knowledge of the scientific method, you may be
able to develop important problem-solving skills. For example, if you're trying to
solve a problem, you can isolate it by considering or eliminating irrelevant factors
using the scientific method. In addition, it can help you in making continuous
changes to your solutions and retesting them.
It creates predictive power. A hypothesis that is proven to be correct raises the
likelihood of an event occurring. This means that you can use the scientific method
to predict whether or not an event will occur again in the future.
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Q.2
Discuss importance and scope of Statistics with reference to a teacher and
researcher.
Ans
“Statistics comprises the collection, tabulation, presentation and analysis of an
aggregate of the facts, collected in methodical manner, without bias and related to
predetermined purpose.” – Sutcliffe
1. Group Comparison:
The achievements of a class are not uniform in every subject. It is found that one class
is progressing faster is one subject, while another is progressing is a different one. Even
the various sections of a particular class do not progress uniformly.
2. Individual Comparison:
Statistics helps in the individual comparison of students differing in respect of their ages,
abilities and intelligence levels. It is statistics which tells us why thus students who are
similar in every other respect yet do not show similar achievement is one particular
subject.
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With a change in place, line and circumstances, the aims, curricula and methods of
education keep on changing. The work of research and experimentation cannot become
reliable and valid without the use of statistics.
Other importance
1. Statistics helps in the collection and presentation of data in a calculated and
systematic manner
2. Statistics makes the teaching and learning process more efficient
3. Statistics helps in the provision and presentation of the exact type of description
4. Statistics serves as a reliable source of history in education
5. Statistics helps in the summary and presentation of results
6. Statistics helps in the process of achieving an accurate prediction
7. Statistics helps in the analysis of some causal factors
8. Statistics helps in the hospital analysis
9. Statistics assists significantly in the collection of data and information
10. Statistics makes studies to be highly responsive and empirical
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Data are sets of facts that provide a partial picture of reality, with certain purposes. And,
no matter the method of its collection, questions regarding the nature of the information
that the data are conveying, how the data can be used, and what must be done to
include more useful information must constantly be put into consideration.
Since most data are available to researchers in a raw format, they must be summarized,
organized, and analyzed to usefully derive information from them. This entails that
unorganized or unanalyzed data are prone to unreliable and false output or results.
Furthermore, each data set needs to be presented in a certain way depending on what it
is used for. Planning how the data will be presented is essential before appropriately
processing raw data. All these can be complex, but statistics helps to analyze, digest,
and present them in a simple empirical manner.
Statistics in Education make the teaching and learning process more efficient in practice.
Statistics in Education, with special considerations to measurement and evaluation of
concepts, are essential parts of the teaching and learning process.
In this process, scores are being obtained and interpreted to make decisions. Statistics,
therefore, enables one to study these scores objectively. It makes the teaching-learning
process more efficient.
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Every data in statistics is described with property and values. The properties and values
are assigned to a particular description that will enable a layperson to assimilate without
much ado.
Statistics is one of the most reliable methods of verifying any given history. This is
because statistical documentation is always empirical and easy for understanding. Thus,
statistical approaches employed in the description and analysis of data, concepts, etc., a
ton of years ago, can be resurrected and positioned as an empirical source for a piece of
reliable information about any history in the contemporary time.
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Think of about philosophy, the love of wisdom – the thinking bank. It maintains the use
of statistics in the process of thinking. Every good thinker utilizes the opportunity for
empirical analysis.
Statistics enables teachers to analyze some of the causal factors underlying complex and
otherwise be-bewildering (confusing) events: it is a common factor that the behavioral
outcome is a result of numerous causal factors.
The reasons why a particular student performs poorly in a particular subject could be
numerous and vary from a student to another. So with the appropriate statistical
methods, one can keep these extraneous variables constant and can observe the cause
of failure of the pupil in a particular subject.
Statistical analysis is very necessary for the Hospital for the best test results. Imagine
where a doctor predicts a disease based on statistical analysis, he is likely to present the
best result out of it.
The role of statistics in the collection of data and information is a very sensitive one.
With good statistical data, one can access a variety of information. With this, one can
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easily handle and manipulate the data accordingly. Think of Economics as a field of
study, statistics is a major activity that handles economical researches, both in practical
and in theory.
For example, when the University management secures the data of the whole lecturers
in the University, they could easily get information on what field they know best and
then assign them to handle courses in that field.
Q.3
Elaborate probability sampling techniques.
Ans
Probability sampling is a technique in which the researcher chooses samples from a
larger population using a method based on probability theory. For a participant to be
considered as a probability sample, he/she must be selected using a random selection.
This statistical method used to select a sample from a population in such a way that
each member of the population has a known, non-zero chance of being selected. The
most critical requirement of probability sampling is that everyone in your population has
a known and equal chance of getting selected.
Probability sampling uses statistical theory to randomly select a small group of people
(sample) from an existing large population and then predict that all their responses will
match the overall population.
Selecting the right sample is crucial for obtaining accurate and reliable results. One of
the most popular and effective methods for selecting a sample is probability sampling.
Let’s explore the different types of probability sampling. From simple random sampling
to stratified random sampling, we’ll break down each method to help you determine
which one is best for your research project.
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1. Simple Random Sampling: This method involves randomly selecting a sample
from the population without any bias. It’s the most basic and straightforward form
of probability sampling.
2. Stratified random Sampling: This method involves dividing the population into
subgroups or strata and selecting a random sample from each stratum. This
technique is useful when the population is heterogeneous and you want to ensure
that the sample is representative of different subgroups.
3. Cluster Sampling: This method involves dividing the population into groups or
clusters and then randomly selecting some of those clusters. This technique is
useful when the population is spread out over a large geographical area. But It is
not possible or practical to survey everyone.
4. Systematic Sampling: This method involves selecting every nth member of the
population after a random starting point is chosen.
There are two ways in which researchers choose the samples in this method
of sampling: The lottery system and using number-generating software/ random number
table. This sampling technique usually works around a large population and has its fair
share of advantages and disadvantages.
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2. Stratified Random Sampling
Stratified random sampling involves a method where the researcher divides a more
extensive population into smaller groups that usually don’t overlap but represent the
entire population. While sampling, organize these groups and then draw a sample from
each group separately.
A standard method is to arrange or classify by sex, age, ethnicity, and similar ways.
Splitting subjects into mutually exclusive groups and then using simple random sampling
to choose members from groups.
Members of these groups should be distinct so that every member of all groups get
equal opportunity to be selected using simple probability. This sampling method is also
called “random quota sampling.”
3. Cluster Sampling
Cluster sampling is a way to select participants randomly that are spread out
geographically. For example, if you wanted to choose 100 participants from the entire
population of the U.S., it is likely impossible to get a complete list of everyone. Instead,
the researcher randomly selects areas (i.e., cities or counties) and randomly selects
from within those boundaries.
Cluster sampling usually analyzes a particular population in which the sample consists of
more than a few elements, for example, city, family, university, etc. Researchers then
select the clusters by dividing the population into various smaller sections.
4. Systematic Sampling
Systematic sampling is when you choose every “nth” individual to be a part of the
sample. For example, you can select every 5th person to be in the sample. Systematic
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sampling is an extended implementation of the same old technique in which each group
member is selected at regular periods to form a sample. There’s an equal opportunity for
every member of a population to be selected using this sampling technique.
Let us take an example to understand this sampling technique. The population of the US
alone is 330 million. It is practically impossible to send a survey to every individual to
gather information. Use probability sampling to collect data, even if you collect it from a
smaller population.
1. Choose your population of interest carefully: Carefully think and choose from
the population of people you believe whose opinions should be collected. Then
include them in the sample.
2. Determine a suitable sample frame: Your frame should consist of a sample
from your population of interest and no one from outside to collect accurate data.
3. Select your sample and start your survey: It can sometimes be challenging to
find the proper sample and determine a suitable sample frame. Even if all factors
are in your favor, there may be unforeseen issues like the cost factors, quality of
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respondents, and quickness to respond. Getting a sample to respond accurately to
a probability survey might be difficult, but possible.
But, in most cases, drawing a probability sample will save you time, money, and a lot of
frustration. You probably can’t send surveys to everyone, but you can always give
everyone a chance to participate. This is what a probability sample is all about.
1. It’s Cost-effective: This process is cost and time effective. A larger sample can also
be chosen based on numbers assigned to the samples. Then you can choose random
numbers from the more significant sample.
2. It’s simple and straightforward: Probability sampling is an easy way as it does not
involve a complicated process. It’s quick and saves time. The time saved can thus be
used to analyze the data and draw conclusions.
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Q.4
Explain ‘scatter plot’ and its use in interpreting data.
Ans
Use scatter plots to show relationships between pairs of continuous variables. These
graphs display symbols at the X, Y coordinates of the data points for the paired
variables. Scatter plots are also known as scatter grams and scatter charts.
The pattern of dots on a scatter plot allows you to determine whether a relationship
or correlation exists between two continuous variables. If a relationship exists, the
scatter plot indicates its direction and whether it is a linear or curved relationship.
Fitted line plots are a special type of scatter plot that displays the data points along with
a fitted line for a simple regression model. This graph allows you to evaluate how well
the model fits the data.
At a minimum, scatter plots require two continuous variables. To learn about other
graphs, read my Guide to Data Types and How to Graph Them.
A scatter plot displays a relationship between two sets of data. A scatter plot can also be
called a scatter gram or a scatter diagram.
In a scatter plot, a dot represents a single data point. With several data points graphed,
a visual distribution of the data can be seen.
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Depending on how tightly the points cluster together, you may be able to discern a
clear trend in the data.
The closer the data points come to forming a straight line when plotted, the higher
the correlation between the two variables, or the stronger the relationship.
If the data points make a straight line going from near the origin out to high y-values,
the variables are said to have a positive correlation. If the data points start at high y-
values on the y-axis and progress down to low values, the variables have a negative
correlation.
Example 1
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This graph illustrates how a person's weight might change depending on how much they
run in a week. It records the change in weight for a group of people, all of whom started
out weighing 90kg. Each person runs a different number of kilometers each week for an
unspecified period of time.
You can conclude from the graph that as the number of kilometers run each week
increases, a person's weight decreases.
When points are graphed on a scatterplot, it is possible to find a line of best fit a straight
line that best represents the data on a scatterplot. Here's the same graph with the line
of best fit drawn in. Notice again that the points only "sort of" line up. That's why it's a
weak negative correlation.
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But notice also the point in the upper right of the graph (red arrow). This data element
is an anomaly. It doesn't fit the pattern of the other points and we didn't use it when
drawing the line of best fit. We call that an outlier—a straight line that best represents
the data on a scatterplot.
This outlier point represents one person who ran 7 km every week, but whose weight
stayed at 90 kg. We might search for an explanation, perhaps even interviewing that
person, and discover that the only food that person ever eats is fatty fast food thus
explaining his or her lack of weight loss!
Scatter plots’ primary uses are to observe and show relationships between two numeric
variables. The dots in a scatter plot not only report the values of individual data points,
but also patterns when the data are taken as a whole.
Identification of correlation relationships are common with scatter plots. In these cases,
we want to know, if we were given a particular horizontal value, what a good prediction
would be for the vertical value. You will often see the variable on the horizontal axis
denoted an independent variable, and the variable on the vertical axis the dependent
variable. Relationships between variables can be described in many ways: positive or
negative, strong or weak, linear or nonlinear.
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A scatter plot can also be useful for identifying other patterns in data. We can divide
data points into groups based on how closely sets of points cluster together. Scatter
plots can also show if there are any unexpected gaps in the data and if there are any
outlier points. This can be useful if we want to segment the data into different parts, like
in the development of user personas.
Over plotting
When we have lots of data points to plot, this can run into the issue of over plotting.
Over plotting is the case where data points overlap to a degree where we have difficulty
seeing relationships between points and variables. It can be difficult to tell how densely-
packed data points are when many of them are in a small area.
There are a few common ways to alleviate this issue. One alternative is to sample only a
subset of data points: a random selection of points should still give the general idea of
the patterns in the full data. We can also change the form of the dots, adding
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transparency to allow for overlaps to be visible, or reducing point size so that fewer
overlaps occur. As a third option, we might even choose a different chart type like
the heatmap, where color indicates the number of points in each bin. Heat maps in this
use case are also known as 2-d histograms.
A common modification of the basic scatter plot is the addition of a third variable. Values
of the third variable can be encoded by modifying how the points are plotted. For a third
variable that indicates categorical values (like geographical region or gender), the most
common encoding is through point color. Giving each point a distinct hue makes it easy
to show membership of each point to a respective group.
One other option that is sometimes seen for third-variable encoding is that of shape.
One potential issue with shape is that different shapes can have different sizes and
surface areas, which can have an effect on how groups are perceived. However, in
certain cases where color cannot be used (like in print), shape may be the best option
for distinguishing between groups.
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For third variables that have numeric values, a common encoding comes from changing
the point size. A scatter plot with point size based on a third variable actually goes by a
distinct name, the bubble chart. Larger points indicate higher values. Hue can also be
used to depict numeric values as another alternative. Rather than using distinct colors
for points like in the categorical case, we want to use a continuous sequence of colors,
so that, for example, darker colors indicate higher value. Note that, for both size and
color, a legend is important for interpretation of the third variable, since our eyes are
much less able to discern size and color as easily as position.
Q.5
Discuss ‘normal curve’ with special emphasis on its application in educational.
Ans
Normal Curve has great significance in mental measurement and educational evaluation.
It gives important information about the trait being measured.
2. Most of the cases are average in the measured trait and their percentage in the total
population is about 68.26%
6. The test has good discrimination power as it differentiates between poor, average and
high ability group individuals, and
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7. The items of the test used are fairly distributed in terms of difficulty level.
These are:
(i) To determine the percentage of cases (in a normal distribution) within given limits or
scores.
(ii) To determine the percentage of cases that are above or below a given score or
reference point.
(iii) To determine the limits of scores which include a given percentage of cases.
(viii) Dividing a group into sub-groups according to certain ability and assigning the
grades.
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The normal probability curve table is generally limited to the area under unit normal
curve with N = 1, σ = 1. In case when the values of N and σ are different from these,
the measurements or scores should be converted into sigma scores (also referred to as
standard scores or Z scores).
Example 1:
Given a normal distribution of 500 scores with M = 40 and σ= 8, what percentage of
cases lie between 36 and 48.
Solution:
Z score for raw score 36. Z = X-M/σ 36-40/8 = -4/8
or Z = -05. σ
or Z = +1σ
According to table area under N.P.C. (Table -A) the total percentage of cases that lie
between the Mean and -,5σ is 19.15. The percentage of cases between the Mean and
+1σ is 34.13. Therefore, total percentage of cases that fall between the scores 36 and
48 is 19.15 + 34.13 = 53.28.
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Solution:
First we convert raw score 60 to Z score by using the formula.
According to the table of area under N.P.C. (Table-A) the area of the curve that lie
between M and + 2σ is 47.72%. The total percentage of cases below the score 60 is 50
+ 47.72 = 97.72% or 98%.
Thus, the percentile rank of a student who secured 60 marks in an achievement test in
the class is 98.
(c) To determine the percentile value of a student whose percentile rank is known.
Example 3:
In a class Amit’s percentile rank in the mathematics class is 75. The mean of the class in
mathematics is 60 with standard deviation 10. Find out Amit’s marks in mathematics
achievement test.
Solution:
According to definition of percentile rank the position of Amit on the N.P.C. scale is 25%
scores above the mean.
According to the N.P.C. Table the σ score of 25% cases from the Mean is +.67σ.
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Known characteristics of the normal curve make it possible to estimate the probability of
occurrence of any value of a normally distributed variable. Suppose that the total area
under the curve is defined to be 1. we can multiply that number by 100 and say there is
a 100 percent chance that any value you can name will be somewhere in the
distribution. The distribution extends to infinity in both directions.) Similarly, because
half the area of the curve is below the mean and half is above it, you can say that there
is a 50 percent chance that a randomly chosen value will be above the mean and the
same chance that it will be below it.
It makes sense that the area under the normal curve is equivalent to the probability of
randomly drawing a value in that range. The area is greatest in the middle, where the
“hump” is, and thins out toward the tails. That is consistent with the fact that there are
more values close to the mean in a normal distribution than far from it.
When the area of the standard normal curve is divided into sections by standard
deviations above and below the mean, the area in each section is a known quantity. The
area in each section is the same as the probability of randomly drawing a value in that
range.
The normal curve and the area under the curve between σ units.
For example, 0.3413 of the curve falls between the mean and one standard deviation
above the mean, which means that about 34 percent of all the values of a normally
distributed variable are between the mean and one standard deviation above it. It also
means that there is a 0.3413 chance that a value drawn at random from the distribution
will lie between these two points.
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Sections of the curve above and below the mean may be added together to find the
probability of obtaining a value within (plus or minus) a given number of standard
deviations of the mean
For example, the amount of curve area between one standard deviation above the
mean and one standard deviation below is 0.3413 + 0.3413 = 0.6826, which means that
approximately 68.26 percent of the values lie in that range. Similarly, about 95 percent
of the values lie within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99.7 percent of the
values lie within three standard deviations.
The normal curve and the area under the curve between σ units.
In order to use the area of the normal curve to determine the probability of occurrence
of a given value, the value must first be standardized, or converted to a z‐score . To
convert a value to a z‐score is to express it in terms of how many standard deviations it
is above or below the mean. After the z‐score is obtained, you can look up its
corresponding probability in a table. The formula to compute a z‐score is
where x is the value to be converted, μ is the population mean, and σ is the population
standard deviation.
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