Probability
Probability
Probability
Random Experiment: An experiment is said to be a random
experiment, if its outcome can't be predicted with certainty.
Sample Point: The elements of the sample space are called sample
point or event point.
Compound Event: A subset of the sample space, which has more than
one element, is called as compound event.
Example: When a dice is thrown, all the six faces {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} are
equally likely to come up.
Pictorial Representation:
Theorems on Probability
Theorom1: The probability of an event lies between 0 and 1. That is, 0
<= P(E) <= 1.
Theorem4: If two events ‘A’ and ‘B’ are such that A is a subset of B,
then P (A) <= P (B).
Since ‘A’ is the subset of ‘B’, so from set theory, number of elements in
‘A’ can’t be more than number of element in ‘B’.
Algebra of events
In a random experiment, let S be the sample space. Let A and B be
subsets of S, where A and B are events. Thus we say that,
A U B is an event that occurs only when at least one of ‘A’ and ‘B’
occurs. A U B means A or B.
Example: If A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {1, 6}, then the event ‘A’ or ‘B’ occurs,
if ‘A’ or ‘B’ or both occur that is at least one of ‘A’ and ‘B’ occurs.
Clearly ‘A’ or ‘B’ occurs, if the outcome is any one of the outcomes 1,
2, 4, 6. That is A U B.
A ∩ B is an event, that occurs only when each one of ‘A’ and ‘B’
occur that is A ∩ B means A and B.
(1) Category A – When n (E) and n (S) are determined by writing down
the elements of ‘E’ and ‘S’.
(2) Category B – When n (E) and n (S) are calculated by the use of
concept of permutation and combination.
(3) Category C – Problems based on P (E) + P (E’) = 1.
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Category A
Question: A coin is tossed successively three times. Find the
probability of getting exactly one head or two heads?
(f) Let E7 = Even of getting a multiple of ‘2” on one dice and a multiple
of ‘3’ on the other dice.
E7 = {(2,3), (2,6), (4,3), (4,6), (6,3), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (6,2), (6,4), (6,6)}.
n(E7) = 11.
P(E7) = n(E7)/n(S) = 11/36.
Solution: A leap year has 366 days, therefore for 52 weeks that is it
has 52 Sundays and 2 days. The remaining 2 days may be any of the
following,
(a) Sunday and Monday
(b) Monday and Tuesday
(c) Tuesday and Wednesday
(d) Wednesday and Thursday
(e) Thursday and Friday
(f) Friday and Saturday
(g) Saturday and Sunday
Category – B
Problems based on fundamental principal of counting and
permutations and combinations.
Question: A bag contains 6 red, 4 white and 8 blue balls. If three balls
are drawn at random, find the probability that,
(a) 1 ball is red and 2 balls are white.
(b) 2 balls are blue and 1 ball is red.
(c) None of them is red.
(b) Let E2 = Event of getting 2 balls are blue and 1 ball is red.
= Total number of ways n(E2) = 8C2 x 6C1
= 8! / (2! x 6!) * 6! / (1! x 5!)
= (8 x 7)/(2) x (6/1) = 168.
P(E2) = 168/816 = 7/34.
(c) Let E3 = Event of getting 3 non red balls. So now we have to choose
all the three balls from 4 white and 8 blue balls.
Total number of ways, n(E3) = 12C3 = 12!/(3! x 9!) =
(12x11x10)/(3x2x1) = 220.
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= 216.
P(E3) = n(E3)/n(S) = 216/220 = 54/55.
(a) Let E1 = Event that both the tickets have prime numbers.
Prime numbers between ‘1’ to ‘50’ are:
2,3,5,7,11,13,17,19,23,29,31,37,41,43,47.
Total Numbers = 15.
We have to select ‘2’ numbers from these 15 numbers.
n(E1) = 15C2 = 15!/(2! x 13!) = (15 x 47)/2 = 105.
P(E1) = n(E1)/n(S) = 105/1225 = 21/245.
Suppose the 5 tickets are a1, a2, 20, a4, a5. They are arranged in
ascending order. Then, we have to select ‘2’ tickets from first ‘19’
tickets and ‘2’ tickets from last 10 tickets.
n(E) = 19C2 x 10C2
= 19!/(2! x 17!) = 10!/(2! x 8!) = (19 x 18)/2 = (10 x 9)/2
= 19 x 9 x 5 x 9
P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = (19x9x5x9)/(29x27x26x7) = 285/5278.
Question: The odds in favour of an event are 3:5, find the probability
of the occurrence of this event.
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Now we have to arrange the persons in a way, such that ‘2’ particular
person sit together. Regarding that 2 persons as one person, we have
to arrange 11 persons.
Total number of ways = (11-1)! = 10! ways.
That ‘2’ persons can be arranged among themselves in 2! ways.
So, total number of ways, of arranging 12 persons, along a round
table, so that two particular person sit together = 10! x 2!
n(E) = 10! x 2!
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = (10! x 2!) / 11! = 2 / 11
Question: 6 boys and 6 girls sit in a row randomly, find the probability
that all the ‘6’ girls sit together?
Solution: We have to arrange ‘6’ boys and ‘6’ girls in a row.
n(S) = 12!
Now, we have to arrange ‘6’ girls in a way, such that all of them
should sit together.
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Category – C
Problems based on finding P(E1), by the use of P(E1) = 1 – P(E).
Note: When an event has a lot of outcomes, then we use this concept.
Total Probability
Theorem1: If ‘A’ and ‘B’ are mutually exclusive events then P(AB) = 0
or P(A and B) = 0.
Proof: If ‘A’ and ‘B’ are mutually exclusive events then A&B = P(AB) =
P(φ) = n(φ)/n(S) [ By definition of probability].
= 0/n(S) [Since the number of elements in a null set is ‘0’]
P(AB) = 0.
Corollary: If ‘A’, ‘B’ and ‘C’ are mutually exclusive events, then,
P(A&B) = 0, P(B&C) = 0, P(A&C) = 0 and P(A&B&C) = 0.
In this case,
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
Working rule:
Example: Two cards are drawn at random. Find the probability that
both the cards are of red color or they are queen?
Solution: Let S be the Sample space.
A = The event that the two cards drawn are red.
B = The event that the two cards drawn are queen.
A&B = The event that the two cards drawn are queen of red color.
Ex.3: A bag contains ‘6’ white and ‘4’ red balls. Two balls are drawn
at random. What is the chance, they will be of the same colour?
P(AB) = 7/15
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Ex.: For a post three persons ‘A’, ‘B’ and ‘C’ appear in the interview.
The probability of ‘A’ being selected is twice that of ‘B’ and the
probability of ‘B’ being selected is thrice that of ‘C’, what are the
individual probability of A, B, C being selected?
Let P(E3) = x
P(E2) = 3. P(E3) = 3x
As there are only ‘3’ candidates ‘A’, ‘B’ and ‘C’ we have to select at
least one of the candidates A or B or C, surely.
P( E1 E2 E3) = 1
1 = 6x + 3x + x
10x – 1 or x = 1/10
Exercise
1) If two dice are thrown simultaneously, what is the probability that
one die shows up ‘2’ and the other shows up ‘5’?
(d) A diamond
(e) A black honor
10) If two cards are drawn at random from a pack of cards, what is
the probability that one of these is a diamond and the other is a
heart?
11) If two cards are drawn simultaneously from a pack of cards, what
is the probability that both are hearts or both are diamonds?
12) If two cards are drawn simultaneously from a pack of cards, what
is the probability that both are kings or both are blacks?