Special Report

Electric Vehicle Trends in India

August 2022
Contents

Executive Summary 02

Market Overview & Outlook 03

Government Policies and Initiatives 06

Challenges faced by the EV Industry 08

1 Special Report: EV Trends in India | August 2022

Executive Summary

Awareness of green ecosystem boosts EV Industry is in nascent stage in India

01 adoption of EVs 02 ▪ The Indian EV market is ranked 5th in the world
▪ In the face of stricter government regulations with market size of ~USD 1.42bn in FY2022 (Mar-
related to emissions, most automakers worldwide 22); it is anticipated to expand at 65.1% CAGR to
are switching to eco-friendly solutions by ~USD 47.2bn by FY2029 (Mar-29).
producing electric vehicles.
▪ In India, EVs contribute less than 1% to total
▪ Increased awareness among consumers on vehicle sales; it has the potential to grow to more
gradually switching to green lifestyle solutions is than 5% in the near term.
boosting EV sales.
▪ The fragmented EV market in India is in its
▪ Consumers are willing to pay extra for the added inflection stages with a lot of new players.
value of being environmentally responsible.

Government policies and initiatives A shift in technology adoption

03 ▪ Increased push from the government to promote
04 ▪ With the shift in modes of transport and a series of
EV adoption in the country has opened gates for longstanding challenges, the automobile industry
numerous business opportunities across three is likely to be driven by major shifts in technology.
segments: mobility, infrastructure, and energy.
▪ The focus is on developing a stable and reliable
▪ Faster adoption and manufacturing of hybrid and infrastructure as well as providing home charging
Electric Vehicles (FAME) Scheme, Production- as a dependable and affordable option.
Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme, and Battery-
Swapping Policy are some of the policies ▪ Companies are tracking real-time data mapping,
launched by the government to speed up the while automotive giants are looking to include this
transition to e-mobility. feature within the vehicles.

2 Special Report: EV Trends in India | August 2022

Market Overview & Outlook
Currently in its inception stage, India’s EV market is poised to emerge as one of the leading electric
vehicle markets in the world.
Vehicle Category-wise Market Share (Apr-2014–Mar-
EV Annual Sales Trend in India (in ‘000)
2022)
455.8 3.3%0.4% 0.4%
3.7%

Electric 3-Wheeler Passenger

Sales declined in FY2021 due to COVID-19 induced
disruptions Registered Electric 2-Wheeler

Electric 3-Wheeler Cargo

32.8%
170.8 Electric Car
146.6 140.8
59.4%
96.8 Electric Bus
56.6
Others
18.0
3.0 2.4

FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

 EV sales, which accounted for 1.3% of total vehicle sales in India  Two-wheelers (scooters, motorbikes) and three-wheelers (autos and
during FY20-21(Mar-21), grew more than three times in FY22 (Mar- rickshaws) dominate India’s automotive sector as they play a
22). significant role in last-mile mobility in the country.
 According to NITI Aayog, the total number of EVs in India is expected  In line with the country’s goal to achieve net-zero carbon emission
to reach 28 million units by FY30. by 2070, NITI Aayog targets EVs to account for 70% of all-electric
commercial cars, 30% of private cars, 40% of buses, and 80% of
 As per the India Energy Storage Alliance report, a cumulative
two and three-wheelers by FY30.
investment of INR 12.5trn (USD 156bn) in vehicle production and
charging infrastructure would be required until FY30 (Mar-30) to
meet India’s EV ambitions.
Source: JMK Research Estimates, Vahan Dashboard, JMK Research; USD/INR = 80

3 Special Report: EV Trends in India | August 2022

Market Overview & Outlook
State-wise measures to boost EV sales

Others (191k units)

Uttar Pradesh (294k units)
▪ Andhra Pradesh plans to achieve 1 million EVs by 2024
▪ Targets to roll out 1 million EVs across segments by Dec-24 and
▪ Kerala targets 1 million EVs by Dec-22 and 6,000 e-buses in
deploy 1,000 electric buses by Dec-30
public transport by Dec-25
▪ Achieve 70% electrification of public transportation by Dec-30
▪ Odisha has set a goal to achieve 20% EVs in all vehicle
26.92% on identified green routes in 10 identified EV cities
registrations by 2025, with primary focus on two-wheelers

Assam, Telangana, Gujarat (111k units)

▪ Telangana government targets to achieve 80% E2Ws 17.48% Delhi (140k units)
and E3Ws, 70% commercial cars, 40% buses, 30% ▪ Plans 50% e-buses for all-new stage carriage
private cars, and15% electrification of all vehicles by Cumulative EV sales buses procured for the city fleet, starting with
12.82%
Dec-25 from FY2014 to FY2022 1,000 e-buses from Apr-20
▪ Assam intends to deploy 200,000 EVs over the next 2.11% = 10,90,641 units
five years, while also offering several incentives to EV 3.05% Karnataka (86k units)
manufacturers in the state
4.99% 7.85% ▪ Aims to electrify 100% of three and four-wheeler
▪ Gujarat allotted INR 8.7bn to support the deployment cargo vehicles by Dec-30
of 0.2m EVs over the next four years 5.39%
7.21% ▪ Introduce 1,000 EV buses for local public transport
5.61% 6.57%
Bihar, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu (192k units) bus fleets

▪ Bihar has prioritized electrification of rickshaws; set up fast-charging

stations at intervals of 50 km on state and national highways and
charging stations at commercial and residential locations
Maharashtra (79k units)
▪ Rajasthan government has proposed State Goods and Services Tax ▪ Targets 10% share of EVs in all new vehicle registrations by Dec-25
(SGST) refund on all EVs registered before Mar-22 ▪ Attain 25% electrification of public transportation and last-mile
▪ Tamil Nadu aims to electrify 5% of buses every year by Dec-30 delivery vehicle in five targeted urban agglomerations

Source: JMK Research Estimates, Vahan Dashboard, Telangana RTO, Company Press Release, JMK Research

4 Special Report: EV Trends in India | August 2022

India’s fragmented EV industry is driven by a few major players
Hero Electric is the oldest player in the market for two-wheelers, while Tata Motors holds the major
market share in the four-wheeler segment

Top 5 electric two-wheeler OEMs in India Top 5 electric three-wheeler OEMs in India
Mar-2022 Mar-2022

1. Hero Electric (75.5k units) 9.5% 1. YC Electric (17.1k units)

25.0% 28.1% 7.5%
2. Okinawa Autotech (47.3k units) 2. Mahindra Electric (13.4k units)
4.7%
3. Ampere Vehicles (37.8k units) 3. Saera Electric (8.5k units)
Total units Total units 4.2%
= 269k = 180k
4. Ather Energy (22.1k units) 4. Champion Polyplast (7.5k units)
7.2% 3.6%

8.2% 5. Pure Energy (19.3k units) 70.6% 5. Dilli Electric (6.5k units)
17.6%
14.1% 6. Rest of the players (67.2k units) 6. Rest of the players (127k units)

Top 4 electric four-wheeler OEMs in India Top 4 electric bus OEMs in India
Mar-2022 Mar-2022

0.8%
0.6% 3.4%
11.3% 1. Tata Motors (18.6k units)
0.3% 18.7%
1. PMI Electric Mobility (397 units)
1.0% 33.5%
2. MG Motors (2.4k units) 2. Tata Motors (280 units)
Total units Total units
3. Mahindra (0.2k units) 3. JBM Auto (247units)
= 22k = 1.2k
4. Hyundai (0.1k units) 20.8% 4. Olectra Green Tech (222 units)

5. Rest of the players (0.3k units) 5. Rest of the players (40 units)
86.0% 23.6%

Source: JMK Research Estimates, Vahan Dashboard, Telangana RTO, Company Press Release, JMK Research

5 Special Report: EV Trends in India | August 2022

Government policies and initiatives
Promote business opportunities across EV franchising, EV OEM market, battery infrastructure, solar
vehicle charging and battery swapping technology

National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020 (NEMMP) Amendments to FAME II Scheme

▪ Under the NEMMP, the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in ▪ In June 2021, the Ministry of Heavy Industry
India (FAME India) scheme was launched in April 2015. further amended and extended the FAME II
scheme until 2024 to push EV demand.
▪ FAME I scheme (2015–2019) primarily focused on demand creation, technology platform, pilot
projects, and charging infrastructure. It had a budget of INR 8.95bn (USD 0.1bn) and engaged 22 ▪ Under the revised policy, the subsidy per e2W
OEMs that registered 80 models of electric and hybrid vehicles. (linked to the battery size) was increased to INR
15,000 per Kilowatt-hour (kWh) from INR 10,000
▪ FAME Phase II (2019–2021) is a three-year extension of FAME I, with an allocated budget of INR per kWh.
100bn (USD 1.25bn) to support the electrification of public and shared transportation. It offers
subsidies for ~1.6m EVs consisting of buses, three-wheelers, four-wheeler passenger vehicles, and ▪ Additionally, e2W manufacturers producing
two-wheelers. Moreover, the setting up of charging infrastructure is supported. vehicles with a minimum range of 80 km on a
single charge and a minimum top speed of 40 km
▪ According to NITI Aayog, all the EVs eligible under the FAME II scheme are expected to save 5.4m per hour would be eligible for a government
million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) demand and 7.4m tons of net CO2 emissions over their subsidy, enabling 40% discount for customers
lifetime. compared to the previous discount of 20%.

Two - Three - Four -

Vehicle Category Buses Total ▪ Government subsidies are expected to have a
wheelers wheelers wheelers
cascading effect on the prices of e2Ws, thus lifting
No. of Vehicles incentivized 10,00,000 5,00,000 55,000 7,000 15,62,000 market demand. With this, India is expected to
Oil Savings (MTOE) 0.9 2.3 0.8 1.4 5.4 achieve ~6 million sales of e2Ws by FY25 (Mar-
25).
Oil Savings (INR crores) 3,000 7,200 2,500 4,500 17,200

Net Energy Savings (Petajoules) 35.7 73 19.4 41.7 169.9

Net CO2 Emissions Savings (Mn tons) 2.6 3.2 0.1 1.5 7.4

Source: IBEF, NITI Aayog, Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), India Briefing; USD/INR = 80

6 Special Report: EV Trends in India | August 2022

Government policies and initiatives
Other schemes introduced by the Government of India

Production-Linked Incentive (PLI)

Battery Swapping Policy Other schemes and initiatives
Scheme
▪ The scheme offers an incentive of ~INR 261bn ▪ India intends to achieve net-zero emissions by ▪ Tax exemption for Indian buyers of up to INR
(USD 3.27bn) over five years to augment the 2070 by decarbonizing high greenhouse gas 1,50,000 (USD 1,877) under section 80EEB of
use of advanced technologies. The government (GHG) intensive sectors such as transport and income tax while purchasing an EV (2Ws or 4Ws)
will offer a maximum of 18% incentives energy. on loan.
considering the incremental turnover of a
company. ▪ Accordingly, NITI Aayog submitted the first ▪ Customs duty reduction on nickel ore (a key
draft of the Battery Swapping Policy 2022 in component of lithium-ion battery) from 5%.
▪ The scheme comprises two components: April 2022, to foster interoperability of two-
Champion OEM Incentive Scheme and wheeler and three-wheeler EVs. ▪ State-wise reduction of road tax and other
Champion Component Incentive Scheme. incentives.
▪ Implementation is envisaged in two phases:
▪ To boost domestic manufacturing and Phase I focuses on metropolitan cities with a
develop advanced technologies lacking in population greater than four million, and Phase
India, the government is offering incentives to II will focus on other major cities.
companies, thus reducing dependency on
imports. It is estimated to generate INR 425bn ▪ The state authorities will be mandated to fast-
of investments and create more than 75,000 track the documentation process within five
jobs in the EV sector. days of application through a single-window
clearance portal. This will churn out huge
▪ This will further help cut down the cost of momentum for the otherwise slower procedure
manufacturing, thereby benefiting the of setting up capital infrastructure and land
consumer, industry, and environment. allotment.

Source: IBEF, NITI Aayog, Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI); USD/INR = 80

7 Special Report: EV Trends in India | August 2022

Challenges faced by EV industry in India
Scope of growth depends on the availability of capital for OEMs, battery manufacturers, and charge
point operators as well as improvements to infrastructure and diversified options for consumers

Battery charging infrastructure: Lack of sufficient charging options and lower density of charging network are among
the main reasons for lesser preference for EVs in India. As of Feb-2022, India had 1,640 operational public EV charging
points across nine Tier I cities. However, the government has proposed to set up charging stations in a 3×3 km grid
area.

Higher prices: The significant (3-4x) price disparity between EV and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
counterparts is one of the most prominent barriers to the adoption of EVs in India. This results in expensive
research and development costs, battery expenses, and a shaky raw material supply chain.

Limited options with lower mileage: As the EV market is in its infant stages, customers have access to limited
options. Likewise, lack of longer-range vehicles and heavy battery capacity in existing products pose hurdles to
EV adoption in India. Many Indian consumers prefer long-distance travel on a single charge, which is not feasible
with the current battery technology installed in electric vehicles.

Dependency on imports: Indian battery makers are highly dependent on imports due to lack of lithium and other
chemicals used in battery manufacturing. This is a major setback for foreign companies willing to invest in India’s EV
industry. Meanwhile, companies in India are joining forces with overseas entities providing resources and are
transferring more raw material production chains to India.

Source: JMK Research Company Press Release

8 Special Report: EV Trends in India | August 2022

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