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CLIMATE CHANGE
WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW®

Second Edition

JOSEPH ROMM

1
 3
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© Joseph Romm 2018

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Names: Romm, Joseph, author.

Title: Climate change: what everyone needs to know / Joseph Romm.
Description: Second edition. | New York, NY:
Oxford University Press, [2018] | Series: What everyone needs to know |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2017043911 | ISBN 9780190866105 (paperback:
acid-free paper) | ISBN 9780190866112 (hardcover: acid-free paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Climatic changes—Health aspects. | Climatic
changes—Economic aspects. | Human beings—Effect of climate on. |
Global warming. | BISAC: MEDICAL / Public Health.
Classification: LCC RA793.R66 2018 | DDC 363.738/742—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017043911

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Paperback printed by LSC Communications, United States of America
Hardback printed by Bridgeport National Bindery, Inc., United States of America
To Antonia
 CONTENTS

PREFACE: WHY YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE XIII

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS XXIII

1 Climate Science Basics 1

What is the greenhouse effect and how does it warm the Earth? 1
Why are scientists so certain the climate system is warming? 2
How does global warming increase sea levels and what has been
observed to date? 4
Where does most of human-​caused warming go? 7
What fraction of recent global warming is due to human causes
versus natural causes? 7
How certain are climate scientists that humans are the primary
cause of recent warning? 9
How do scientists know that recent climate change is primarily
caused by human activities? 10
Why has the climate changed in the past, before there were
human-​caused greenhouse gas emissions? 12
What are the climate system’s amplifying feedbacks that turn a
moderate initial warming into a big ultimate warming? 14
Is the current level of atmospheric CO2 concentration unprecedented
in human history? 15
Are recent climatic changes unprecedented? 17
viii Contents

Has recent human-​caused climate change been occurring faster or

not as fast as scientists predicted? 18
Is there a difference between global warming and climate change? 19
What are the sources of the most important human-​caused
pollutants that drive global warming? 20
How does deforestation contribute to warming? 21
What is global warming potential and why is it different for various
greenhouse gases? 22
Why does the rate of warming appear to vary from decade to decade? 23
Has global warming slowed down or paused in recent years? 24
Can we reach a point where emitting more CO2 into the air will not
cause more climate change? 28
Have we already crossed tipping points (points of no return) in the
climate system? 29

2 Extreme Weather and Climate Change 31

What is the difference between weather and climate? 31

Which extreme weather events are being made worse by climate
change and which are not? 32
What is the role of natural climatic variation, such as the El Niño–​La
Niña cycle, in extreme weather? 34
Did climate change cause Hurricanes Sandy and Harvey (and why is
that the wrong question to ask)? 37
How does climate change affect heat waves? 41
How does climate change affect droughts? 44
How does climate change affect wildfires? 47
How does climate change affect the chances of deluges or severe
precipitation? 50
Does climate change mean more snow or less, worse snowstorms
or weaker ones? 53
How does climate change affect storm surge? 57
Is climate change making hurricanes more destructive? 58
What is Arctic amplification and how does it affect extreme weather? 61
 Contents ix

Is climate change and/​or Arctic amplification affecting extreme

weather in the Northern Hemisphere? 64
Is climate change affecting tornado formation? 70
In a warming world, why do some winters still seem unusually severe? 73

3 Projected Climate Impacts 77

What kind of impacts can we expect this century from

business-​as-​usual climate change? 77
What are the biggest sources of uncertainty in projecting future
global warming? 79
What do previous hot periods in Earth’s climate tell us about what
the future may hold in store? 82
How could the thawing permafrost speed up global warming beyond
what climate models have projected? 84
How could an increase in wildfires speed up global warming beyond
what climate models have projected? 89
What are some other key positive or amplifying feedbacks affecting
the climate system? 92
What will the impacts of sea-​level rise be? 96
How will climate change lead to more destructive superstorms this
century? 101
What kind of droughts can we expect this century? 103
What are the expected health impacts of climate change? 109
How does global warming affect human productivity? 113
Does carbon dioxide at exposure levels expected this century have
any direct impacts on human health or cognition? 118
What is ocean acidification and why does it matter to sea life? 123
What is biodiversity and how will climate change impact it? 126
How will climate change affect the agricultural sector and our ability
to feed the world’s growing population? 129
How is climate change a threat to national, regional,
and global security? 133
What is the plausible best-​case scenario for climate change this
century? 137
x Contents

What is the plausible worst-​case scenario for climate change this

century? 140
What do scientists mean by “irreversible impacts” and why are they
such a concern with climate change? 146

4 Avoiding the Worst Impacts 151

What is the biggest source of confusion about what humanity needs

to do to avoid the worst climate impacts? 151
What is the December 2015 Paris climate accord and why is it so
important? 153
Why did scientists and governments decide 2°C (3.6°F) was the
limit beyond which climate change becomes “dangerous” to humanity? 156
What kind of greenhouse gas emissions reductions are needed to
keep warming well below 2°C? 159
What would the economic cost of meeting the 2°C target be? 160
What happens if we miss the 2°C target? 164
Can we adapt to human-​caused climate change? 165
What is geoengineering and can it play a major role in reducing the
impact of climate change? 169

5 Climate Politics and Policies 175

What climate policies are governments around the world using to

fight climate change? 175
What is a carbon tax? 176
What are cap-​and-​trade and carbon trading? 178
What are China and India doing to restrict carbon dioxide emissions? 182
What is the United States doing to restrict carbon dioxide emissions? 185
How do different political parties view climate science and policies
in the United States and around the world? 187
Is there are a large-​scale effort to spread misinformation on climate
science and, if so, who funds it? 190
What are climate science deniers? 195
 Contents xi

6 The Role of Clean Energy 199

What kind of changes in our energy system would a

2°C target require? 199
What is energy efficiency and what role will it play? 201
Will nuclear power be a major factor in the effort to minimize
climate change? 206
What role does natural gas have in the transition to a 2°C world? 209
How much can solar power contribute to averting dangerous climate
change? 212
How big a role will wind power play in averting dangerous climate
change? 216
What is carbon capture and storage (a.k.a. carbon sequestration)
and what role can it play? 218
What is bioenergy and what is its role in cutting carbon pollution? 224
What other carbon-​free forms of energy can contribute to cutting
greenhouse gas emissions? 228
How can we reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the transportation
sector? 231
What challenges have limited the marketplace success of alternative
fuels and alternative fuel vehicles to date? 234
What role can electric vehicles play? 239
What are hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen fuel-​cell vehicles? 244
What are the challenges facing hydrogen fuel-​cell vehicles as a
climate solution? 247
What role can energy storage play in the transition off of fossil fuels? 254
What can the agricultural and livestock sector do to minimize
climate change? 257
What role can energy conservation play? 261

7 Climate Change and You 263

How will climate change impact you and your family in the coming
decades? 263
How might climate change affect the future price of coastal property? 264
xii Contents

How might climate change affect decisions about where to live and
retire in the coming decades? 268
What should students study today if they want to prepare
themselves for working in a globally warmed world? 269
Should climate change affect how you invest for the future? 271
How can you reduce your carbon footprint? 272
What role can dietary changes play in reducing your carbon footprint? 275
What is the best way to talk to someone who does not accept the
growing body of evidence on climate science? 276
Do we still have time to preserve a livable climate with a U.S.
President who rejects climate science? 280

PRIMARY SOURCES 283

NOTES 285
INDEX 299
 PREFACE

Why you need to know about climate change

Climate change will have a bigger impact on your family and
friends and all of humanity than the Internet has had. Imagine
if you knew a quarter-​ century ago how information tech-
nology and the Internet were going to revolutionize so many
aspects of life. Imagine how valuable that knowledge would
have been to you and your family. It turns out that we have
such advanced knowledge of how climate change will play out
over the next quarter-​century and beyond. The purpose of this
book is to provide you with that knowledge.
Climate change is now an existential issue for humanity.
Serious climate impacts have already been observed on every
continent. Far more dangerous climate impacts are inevitable
without much stronger action than the world is currently
pursuing, as several major 2014 scientific reports concluded.
Since everyone’s family will be affected by climate change—​
indeed, they already are—​everyone needs to know the basics
about it, regardless of their politics. Many of the major
decisions that you, your family, and friends will have to make
in the coming years and decades will be affected by human-​
caused climate change. Should you own coastal property?
Should you plan on retiring in South Florida or the Southwest
or the Mediterranean? What occupations and career paths
xiv Preface

make the most sense in a globally warmed world, and what

should students study? Should climate change affect how you
invest for the future?
This book will explore those questions as well as the more
basic ones everyone needs to know the answers to, such as why
are climate scientists so confident that humans are the primary
cause of recent warming? Which extreme weather events are
being made worse by climate change and which are not? Did
climate change cause Hurricanes Sandy and Harvey (and why
is that the wrong question to ask)? What are the core energy-​
related climate solutions? Since climate is always changing,
why worry about what is happening now? What actions are
the major polluters—​China, India, the United States, and the
European Union—​taking to reduce emissions of heat-​trapping
greenhouse gases? What is the Paris climate accord, and why
is it so important?
Also, this is the first book to examine one of the most impor-
tant climate questions of all: “Does carbon dioxide at exposure
levels expected this century have any direct impacts on human
health or cognition?” You might think that the answer to this
obvious question would be well researched by now, especially
since a great many people are routinely exposed to such levels
today indoors. But it is only very recently that scientists have
done the relevant studies. Even more surprising, the most
recent research—​ including studies by Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory and the Harvard School of Public
health—​suggests that the answer is “yes”! And that has huge
implications for you and your family now.
Under different circumstances, you might not have needed
to become especially knowledgeable about climate change.
Consider the case of the Earth’s ozone layer, which protects
us from dangerous ultraviolet light. In 1974, climate scientists
figured out that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were destroying
the ozone layer. Americans and Scandinavian countries volun-
tarily banned CFC use in spray cans within 5 years. A few years
after that, President Ronald Reagan, Vice President George
 Preface xv

H.W. Bush, and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher

played an instrumental role in bringing about an international
treaty banning CFCs. Decades later, the ozone layer has still
been preserved, and you do not need to think about it at all.
However, climate change action has not followed that ra-
tional trajectory. Scientists have known for over a century that
human-​ caused greenhouse gases would warm the planet.
Four decades ago, climate scientists began seriously sounding
the alarm about the dangers posed by unrestricted emissions
of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide from the burning
of fossil fuels. In 1977, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences
warned that unrestricted greenhouse gas emissions might
raise global temperatures as much as 10°F [5.5°C] and raise sea
level 20 feet. The Academy, the nation’s most prestigious sci-
entific body, was chartered by Abraham Lincoln to give advice
to the nation on scientific matters.
In 1988, the nations of the world came together to task the
top scientists of the world with regularly summarizing and
reporting on the latest research and observations. The central
purpose of the resulting United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was to provide the best
science to policymakers. In the ensuing years, the science has
gotten stronger, in large part because observations around the
world confirmed the vast majority of the early predictions
made by climate scientists.
At the same time, many cornerstone elements of our climate
began changing far faster than most scientists had projected.
The Arctic began losing sea ice several decades ahead of every
single climate model used by the IPCC, which in turn means
the Arctic region warmed up even faster than scientists ex-
pected. At the same time, the great ice sheets of Greenland and
Antarctica, which contain enough water to raise sea levels ul-
timately 25–​80 meters (80–​260 feet), have begun disintegrating
“a century ahead of schedule,” as Richard Alley, a leading
climatologist put it in 2005. In 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 we
learned that both ice sheets are far less stable than we realized,
xvi Preface

and they are dangerously close to tipping points that would

lead to irreversible collapse and dramatic rates of sea-​level rise.
In the last several years, we have experienced a spate of off-​
the-​charts extreme weather events that scientists had predicted
decades ago—​heat waves, droughts, wildfires, superstorms,
and superstorm surges. Meteorologist and former hurricane
hunter Dr. Jeff Masters said in 2012, “This is not the atmos-
phere I grew up with.” There is an ever-​expanding body of
scientific literature that clearly shows that greenhouse gases
are fundamentally altering the climate and sharply boosting
the chances for many types of extreme weather events.
For these reasons, the IPCC, the U.S. National Academy,
and the United Kingdom’s Royal Society, as well as many
other scientific and international organizations have released
increasingly urgent warnings of the dangers of inaction as
well as stronger and stronger calls to action. Although this
has all helped restart a global conversation on climate change,
human-​caused emissions of greenhouse gases have continued
their rise almost unabated. In fact, growth in emissions began
accelerating after the year 2000.
Because global temperature rise and other impacts are
driven by cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases, those
soaring emissions have kept the world on track for the worst-​
case scenarios of climate change. The slow pace of national
and global action in response to the scientific reports written
for policymakers has led to more scientists communicating
directly to the public. In 2010, Ohio State scientist Lonnie
Thompson explained why climatologists had begun speaking
out more: “Virtually all of us are now convinced that global
warming poses a clear and present danger to civilization.”1
The good news is that, finally, in November 2014, the
world’s largest polluter, China, announced a deal with the
United States whereby China would peak in carbon dioxide
emissions by 2030. In that deal, the United States committed
to cut greenhouse gases 26%–​28% below 2005 levels by 2025.
A few weeks earlier, the entire European Union had pledged
 Preface xvii

to cut total emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. This led
to a cascade of pledges by every major country, culminating in
the Paris climate accord in December 2015 in which more than
190 nations unanimously agreed to do what it takes to keep
total global warming “well below 2°C” [3.6°F]. That, in turn,
requires leaving most of the world’s fossil fuels in the ground.
The Paris climate deal does not mean dangerous climate
change will be avoided. It is just a first step. But it is a game-​
changer in the sense that before this deal, the world as a
whole—​including key developing countries like China—​had
not been seriously in the game of trying to stave off climate
catastrophe.
Before Paris, the world was on an emissions path headed
toward an unimaginable 6°C (11°F) total warming. The Paris
pledges put the world on to an emissions path that would keep
total warming below the beyond-​ catastrophic level of 4°C
(7°F). But to keep warming total warming well below the dan-
gerous level of 2°C, all of the major nations must keep coming
back to the negotiating table with ever-​stronger targets every
few years, until total global emissions of carbon pollution hit
zero sometime in the second half of the century.
That’s why the June 2017 decision by U.S. President Donald
Trump to abandon the Paris deal—​coupled with his embrace
of domestic policies that would boost U.S. emissions—​is so
counterproductive. Without the strong, ongoing support of the
world’s second biggest emitter, the world will not be able to
keep warming below dangerous levels.
Moreover, because action has been so delayed for so long,
humanity cannot avoid very serious climate impacts in the
coming decades—​impacts that will affect you and your chil-
dren. Therefore, you need to understand what is coming so
you and your family will be prepared. It is entirely possible,
if not likely, that climate change will transform the lives of
your children more than the Internet has. In some sense, the
defining story of the 21st century is a race between the impacts
our cumulative carbon emissions will increasingly have on our
xviii Preface

climate system and humanity’s belated but accelerating efforts

to replace fossil fuels with carbon-​free energy.
Will we stay on our current path and trigger amplifying
feedbacks that cause further warming, pushing us closer to
irreversible tipping points. Or will we instead act quickly
enough to avoid the very worst impacts? Leading scientists
and governments say that would mean keeping total warming
below 2°C (3.6°F). Meeting such a warming target would re-
quire all nations to replace fossil fuels with clean energy at an
even faster rate than we are currently planning—​and for total
global carbon dioxide emissions to be zero (or negative) by
century’s end.
The story of the ongoing clean energy revolution is thus an
inextricable part of the climate change story. For instance, in
the past quarter century, the price of solar-​powered electricity
from photovoltaic panels has dropped by 99%, which has been
accompanied by an equally impressive 60% annual increase
in global solar capacity. This trend is certain to continue, in
part because in its 2014 climate deal with the United States,
China also committed to more than double its share of carbon-​
free sources of energy (such as solar power, wind power, nu-
clear power, and hydropower) by 2030. In 2014, the European
Union similarly adopted a binding target to increase its share
of renewable energy to at least 27% of its 2030 energy con-
sumption. That is approximately double its current renewable
energy share.
These commitments, together with ones that other major
countries like India made in Paris in December 2015, mean that
the recent explosive growth and price drops experienced by
renewable energy sources such as solar and wind—​as well as
key enabling technologies such as batteries and electric cars—​
will continue for decades to come.
In addition, it means the long-​ predicted ascendance of
carbon-​free energy has now begun in earnest. Indeed, just 1
week after its pledge to peak carbon dioxide emissions in 2030,
China announced that its peak in coal consumption would be
 Preface xix

in 2020. This is a complete reversal of Chinese energy policy,

which for two decades has been centered on building a coal
plant or more each week. Now, however, they will be building
the equivalent in carbon-​free power every week for decades,
while the construction rate of new coal plants grinds to a halt
over the next several years. My June 2015 trip to meet with
leading Chinese climate and energy experts made clear to
me the country intended to beat its stated targets, and data
through 2017 suggest that China’s coal use growth has slowed
and is close to plateauing.
The accelerating global shift away from carbon-​intensive
forms of energy, agriculture, and transportation will have
effects on you and your family (and everyone else) almost as
great as the impacts from the climate change itself. It will affect
the cars we drive, the products we buy, the homes in which we
live, the industries that succeed and fail in the marketplace, the
global financial system, and ultimately even the foods we eat.
A key goal of this book is to save you time. There is far too
much information on climate science, clean energy solutions,
and global warming politics for you to stay current. Now,
however, everyone needs to follow this issue and have an
informed opinion in order to participate in the growing con-
versation on the most important issue of the decade and the
century. More important, everyone needs to understand how
climate change—​and our response to it—​is going to directly
affect their lives and the lives of their family in the years and
decades to come.
This book will not enter into the unproductive political
debate over the science. Rather, it takes as a starting point
the overwhelming consensus of our top global experts and
governments, as laid out in the recent Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change summary reviews of the literature,
culminating with the November 2014 “Synthesis Report.”
The 2014 Report issued their bluntest statement yet to the
world: Cut carbon pollution sharply starting now (at a very
low cost) or risk “severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts
xx Preface

for people and ecosystems.” In addition, this is a particularly

apt time for such a book because in recent years we’ve seen
an unusual number of highly credible—​and uncharacteris-
tically blunt—​ major reports, including the Congressionally
mandated 2017 U.S. National Climate Assessment, which pro-
vide a solid basis for explaining the physical science behind
global warming, the projected impacts we are facing, and how
to avoid catastrophe. At the same time, the unprecedented ac-
celeration of the clean energy revolution in 2015, 2016, and
2017 means that if you haven’t been paying close attention,
much of what you know about core solutions to the climate
problem are out of date.
This book is aimed at general readers in North America,
Europe, and around the world who are interested in under-
standing what climate change means for them and their
families, as well as those interested in joining the growing
public debate and discussion. The book will cover our current
understanding of climate science as well as the most salient
projected impacts that we are facing. It will also examine cli-
mate solutions, especially in the crucial energy sector. Finally,
it will examine the political and policy issues surrounding cli-
mate change.
I have been deeply involved in climate science, solutions,
and policy for a quarter century, and I have focused on ef-
fectively communicating aspects of climate change to a
general audience for a decade. I first became interested in
global warming in the mid-​1980s while studying for my
physics Ph.D. at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
I researched my Ph.D. thesis on the physical oceanog-
raphy of the Greenland Sea at the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography and had the chance to work with Dr. Walter
Munk, one of the world’s top ocean scientists. The impact
of climate change on the oceans was already a concern at
Scripps in the 1980s.
In the mid-​1990s, I served for 5 years in the U.S. Department
of Energy. As acting assistant secretary for energy efficiency
 Preface xxi

and renewable energy, I oversaw what was then the world’s

largest portfolio of research and development, demonstration,
and deployment of low-​carbon technology—​$1 billion aimed
at advanced energy efficiency technologies in buildings, in-
dustry, and transportation as well as every form of renewable
energy. I helped develop a climate technology strategy for the
nation. While working with leading scientists and engineers
at our national laboratories, I came to understand that the
technology for reducing our emissions was already at hand
and at a far lower cost than was widely understood. After the
Department of Energy, I worked with some of the nation’s
leading corporations, helping them to make greenhouse gas
reductions and commitment plans that reduced emissions by
millions of tons while also boosting their profits.
After my brother lost his Mississippi home in the August
2005 Hurricane Katrina storm surge, he asked me for advice
on whether he should rebuild there. So I started interviewing
climate experts and attending climate seminars, and I began
to read the scientific literature. Dozens of our top climate
scientists impressed upon me the fact that the climate situation
was far more dire than I had realized, far more dire than 98% of
opinion makers and politicians understood—​a situation that
remains true today.
This knowledge led me to shift from helping companies
make greenhouse gas cuts to focusing on a better under-
standing of climate science and solutions, and I was able to
concentrate on how to communicate this issue to policymakers
and the public. I became founding editor of ClimateProgress.
org, which New York Times columnist Tom Friedman calls “the
indispensable blog.” Since 2006, I have written millions of
words on every aspect of climate change, I have reviewed hun-
dreds of studies and reports, and I have interviewed the vast
majority of leading experts on climate change and solutions. In
2009, Time magazine named me a “Hero of the Environment”
and “The Web’s most influential climate-​change blogger.” In
2016, Nobel Prize–​winning economist Paul Krugman wrote in
xxii Preface

the New York Times, “I’ve learned a lot of what I know about
energy economics from Joe Romm.”
For the last few years, I have also had the privilege to be
Chief Science Advisor for the TV series, “Years of Living
Dangerously,” the first climate change docu-​ series ever to
appear on U.S. television. This has given me the chance to
work with some of the best communicators in the country,
from James Cameron to former “60 Minutes” producers.
Season One of “Years of Living Dangerously,” which aired
on Showtime in mid-​ 2014, won the prime-​ time Emmy for
“Outstanding Non-​Fiction Series.” The UK Guardian called
the series, “Perhaps the most important climate change multi-
media communication endeavor in history.” Season Two aired
in 2016 on National Geographic Channel to similar acclaim.
In the coming years, climate change will become a bigger
and bigger part of all our lives. It is literally the story of the
century, and, for better or worse, you and everyone you know
will increasingly become a part of that story. Here is what you
and your family need to know to navigate your future.
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This book would not have been possible without the opportu-
nity I have had over the past eleven years to publish blog posts
containing millions of words on climate science, policy, and
solutions. In addition, the rapid feedback that I received online
from readers and other science bloggers helped to greatly im-
prove my writing skills since 2006.
That’s why I first thank everyone at the Center for
American Progress Action Fund (CAPAF) who believed in
the idea of ClimateProgress.org and supported the web-
site over the years as it grew and expanded and ultimately
merged with ThinkProgress.org—​and I would like to espe-
cially thank John Podesta and Neera Tanden and Judd Legum
from ThinkProgress. Many people now and in the past have
given me invaluable advice and support since the blog was
launched, including Kari Manlove, Sean Pool, Brad Johnson,
Faiz Shakir, Nico Pitney, Stephen Lacey, Andrew Sherry, Dan
Weiss, Ryan Koronowski, Kiley Kroh, Sam Page, and a variety
of interns. I thank the IT wizards at CAPAF who have pro-
vided unmatched technical and design support for the site.
I would also like to thank the producers of the TV docuseries
“Years of Living Dangerously,” particularly Joel Bach, James
Cameron, David Gelber, and Maria Wilhelm. Working on that
show over the past seven years has given me exposure to some
of the best and most imaginative communicators in the world,