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    AKASH CHOWDHURY - Software

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    priyanka.debnath.cse.2021

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    AKASH CHOWDHURY - Software

    Uploaded by

    priyanka.debnath.cse.2021
    14 views4 pages

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    18700121018_AKASH CHOWDHURY_Software

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    14 views4 pages

    AKASH CHOWDHURY - Software

    Uploaded by

    priyanka.debnath.cse.2021

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    RISK ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES

    AKASH CHOWDHURY

    ROLL NUMBER: 18700121018

    REGISTRATION NUMBER : 211870100110046

    DEPARTMENT : COMPUTER SCIENCE ENGINEERING

    YEAR : 3RD

    BATCH : 2021 - 2025


    1. ABSTRACT

    Risk estimation is a critical aspect of software engineering that plays a pivotal role in the
    success of software projects. This technical report provides an overview of various risk
    estimation techniques used in software engineering. It discusses the importance of risk
    estimation, common challenges, and presents a comprehensive analysis of popular methods,
    including qualitative and quantitative approaches. Additionally, it explores emerging trends
    and best practices in risk estimation.

    2. INTRODUCTION

    Software development is inherently risky, with numerous factors that can lead to project
    failure, such as budget overruns, schedule delays, and quality issues. Risk estimation aims to
    identify and assess potential risks so that appropriate mitigation strategies can be devised.
    This report discusses the techniques and methods employed in the field of software
    engineering for estimating and managing risks effectively.

    3. IMPORTANCE OF RISK ESTIMATION


    3.1. Project Success: Accurate risk estimation contributes to project success by
    identifying potential problems early in the development cycle, allowing for timely
    corrective actions.
    3.2. Resource Allocation: It helps in the efficient allocation of resources by
    prioritizing high-impact risks, thereby preventing costly surprises later in the
    project.
    3.1. Stakeholder Communication: Effective risk estimation aids in transparent
    communication with stakeholders, setting realistic expectations, and building
    trust.

    4. CHALLENGES IN RISK ESTIMATION


    4.1.Uncertainty: Software projects are inherently uncertain due to changing
    requirements, technology, and market conditions.
    4.2.Subjectivity: Estimating risks often relies on expert judgment, making it
    subjective and prone to biases.
    4.3.Data Availability: Historical data on similar projects may not always be available,
    making estimation challenging.

    5. QUALITATIVE RISK ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES


    5.1.Expert Opinion
    5.1.1. Description: Experts in the field assess and rank risks based on their
    judgment and experience.
    5.1.2. Pros: Quick, useful for early-stage estimation.
    5.1.3. Cons: Subjective, relies on expert availability.
    5.2.Delphi Method
    5.2.1. Description: A structured communication process among experts to
    reach a consensus on risk assessments.
    5.2.2. Pros: Reduces individual biases, provides a collective expert opinion.
    5.2.3. Cons: Time-consuming, may require multiple iterations.

    6. QUANTITATIVE RISK ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES


    6.1.Monte Carlo Simulation
    6.1.1. Description: A statistical technique that models project variables and
    iterates through thousands of simulations to estimate risk exposure.
    6.1.2. Pros: Provides probabilistic risk assessment, handles complex
    interdependencies.
    6.1.3. Cons: Requires extensive data and computational resources.
    6.2.Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
    6.2.1. Description: A structured method for pairwise comparisons of risks to
    derive a prioritized risk ranking.
    6.2.2. Pros: Provides a systematic way to compare and prioritize risks.
    6.2.3. Cons: Subject to inconsistency in expert judgments.
    7. EMERGING TRENDS AND BEST PRACTICES
    7.1. Machine Learning: The integration of machine learning algorithms for risk
    prediction based on historical project data.
    7.2. Agile Risk Management: Continuous risk assessment and mitigation integrated
    into agile development processes.
    7.3. Crowdsourced Risk Assessment: Leveraging the wisdom of crowds for risk
    estimation through online platforms.

    8. CONCLUSION

    Effective risk estimation is crucial for the success of software engineering projects.
    Qualitative and quantitative techniques, along with emerging trends, offer various approaches
    to tackle this challenge. By understanding the importance of risk estimation, acknowledging
    its inherent challenges, and adopting best practices, software development teams can enhance
    their ability to deliver successful projects while managing and mitigating potential risks.

    9. REFERENCES
    9.1.Boehm, B. W. (1989). Software Risk Management: Principles and Practices. IEEE
    Software, 1(1), 32-41.
    9.2.Hillson, D., & Murray-Webster, R. (2007). Understanding and Managing Risk
    Attitude. Gower Publishing, Ltd.
    9.3.Project Management Institute. (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body
    of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) (6th ed.). Project Management Institute, Inc.
    9.4.Schmidt, C., & Lyytinen, K. (2002). Seven Guiding Threads for Conducting
    Action-Oriented Research in Software Engineering. Information and Software
    Technology, 44(13), 797-806.

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