Using formulae to solve probability questions

Instead of always drawing Venn diagrams to answer probability questions (in any case they
break down when the events are more than three), we can derive formulas to enable us solve
probability questions.
Let p(A) = a, p(B) = b and p(A ∩ B) = i then p(A ∪ B) = (a − i) + i + (b − i) = a + b − i.
Hence
p(A ∪ B) = p(A) + p(B) − p(A ∩ B) − the Addition Rule.

Rewriting the Addition Rule gives

p(A ∩ B) = p(A) + p(B) − p(A ∪ B).

Class Exercise
Use formulae and what you have learned about the algebra of sets to answer the following
questions.

1) Let A and B be two events such that p(A) = 0.6, p(B) = 0.7 and p(A∪B) = 0.9. Determine

(a) p(A ∩ B);

′
(b) p(A ) ;
′
(c) p(A ∩ B);
′
(d) p(A ∪ B).

2) Consider two events T and Q where p(T ) = p(Q) = 3p(T ∩ Q) and p(T ∪ Q) = 0.75.
Determine

(a) p(T ∩ Q);

(b) p(T );
′
(c) p(Q );
′ ′
(d) p(T ∩ Q );
′
(e) p(T ∩ Q).

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AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY

Previously, we defined probability informally. We now consider a formal definition using the
axioms of probability.
An axiom is simply a rule that has to be satisfied.

Definition

Probability is a (real-valued) set function p that assigns to each event A in the sample space
S a number p(A), called the probability of the event A which must satisfy the following three
axioms:

1. The probability of any event A must be nonnegative, that is p(A) ⩾ 0.

2. The probability of the sample space is 1, that is, p(S) = 1 implying 0 ⩽ p(A) ⩽ 1.

3. Given mutually exclusive (disjoint) events A1 , A2 , A3 , . . . that is where Ai ∩Aj = ϕ, fori ̸= j,

A. The probability of a finite union of the events is the sum of the probabilities of the
individual events, that is:

p(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ∪ Ak ) = p(A1 ) + p(A2 ) + p(A3 ) + · · · + p(Ak )

X
k
= p(Ai )
i=1

B. The probability of a countably infinite union of the events is the sum of the probabilities
of the individual events, that is:

p(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ) = p(A1 ) + p(A2 ) + p(A3 ) + · · ·

X
∞
= p(Ai )
i=1

These conditions are known as the axioms of the theory of probability.

1. The first axiom states that all the probabilities are nonnegative real numbers.

2. The second axiom attributes a probability of unity to the universal event S, thus providing
a normalization of the probability measure.

3. The third axiom states that the probability function must be additive, consistently with the
intuitive idea of how probabilities behave.

All probabilistic results are based directly or indirectly on the axioms and only the axioms. Any
assignment of probability to an event must satisfy the THREE axioms stated above regardless
of your interpretation of probability.

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Class Exercise

Suppose that the MMA105 class has 43 students, such that 1 is Physics, 4 are Mathematics,
20 are Business, 9 are Computer, and 9 are Geography major students. Randomly select a
student from the class. Define the following events:

1. P - the event that a Physics major is selected.

2. M - the event that a Mathematics major is selected.

3. B - the event that a Business major is selected.

4. C - the event that a Computer major is selected.

5. G - the event that a Geography major is selected.

The sample space is S = {P, M, B, C, G}.

Using the relative frequency approach to assigning probability to events, assign probabilities
to the events p(P), p(M),p(B),p(C) and p(G). Show that the three axioms of probability are
satisfied.

Probability rules derived from the axioms of probability

′
Theorem 1: p(A) = 1 − p(A )
Theorem 2: p(ϕ) = 0
Theorem 3: If events A and B are such that A ⊆ B, then p(A) ⩽ p(B).
Theorem 4: p(A) ⩽ 1.
Theorem 5: For any two events A and B, p(A ∪ B) = p(A) + p(B) − p(A ∩ B).

Class Exercise

1. Prove the five theorems derived from the three axioms of probability.

2. A company has bid on two large construction projects. The company president believes that
the probability of winning the first contract is 0.6, the probability of winning the second
contract is 0.4, and the probability of winning both contracts is 0.2. What is the probability
that the company wins:

a) at least one contract?

b) the first contract but not the second contract?

3
 c) neither contract?

d) exactly one contract?

3. If it is known that A ⊆ B, what can be definitively said about p(A ∩ B)?

4. If 7% of the population smokes cigars, 28% of the population smokes cigarettes, and 5% of
the population smokes both, what percentage of the population smokes neither cigars nor
cigarettes?

Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is a probability of an event given that another event has occurred.
For example, rather than being interested in knowing the probability that a randomly selected
students fails the probability exam, we might instead be interested in knowing the probability
that a randomly selected student fails the probability exam given that the student is an edu-
cation major.
We are finding the probability of event B occurring given that event A has occurred denoted
p(B/A).
Event A is termed the prior event while event B is the subsequent event.
Conditional probabilities have the effect of shrinking the sample space to the prior event.

Example 1

A researcher is interested in evaluating how well a diagnostic test works for detecting renal
disease in patients with high blood pressure. She performs the diagnostic test on 137 patients,
67 with known renal disease and 70 who are known to be healthy. The diagnostic test comes
back either positive (the patient has renal disease) or negative (the patient does not have renal
disease). Here are the results of her experiment:

Test Result
Truth Positive Negative Total
Renal disease 44 23 67
Healthy 10 60 70
Total 54 83 137

a) What is the probability that the patient tests positive?

b) What is the probability that a patient has renal disease?

4
c) What is the probability that a patient tests positive given that they have renal disease?

Solution

Let T denote the event that a patient test positive and D the event that a patient has renal
disease
n(T ) 54
a) p(T ) = = .
n(S) 137

n(D) 67
b) p(D) = = .
n(S) 137

n(T ∩ D) 44
c) p(T/D) = = . Here you are considering only the proportion of those who are
n(D) 67
diseased (sample space shrinks); how many of them test positive.

Therefore, from part c) in the example we can write down a formula for conditional probability
as
p(A ∩ B)
p(A/B) = ; p(B) > 0
p(B)
Multiplying both sides by p(B) we get

p(A ∩ B) = p(B) × p(A/B) − the Multiplication Rule

or
p(A ∩ B)
p(B/A) = ; p(A) > 0
p(A)
Multiplying both sides by p(A) we get

p(A ∩ B) = p(A) × p(B/A) − the Multiplication Rule

Class Exercise 1

1. Two fair spinners each have faces numbered 1 – 4. The two spinners are thrown together
and the sum of the faces shown on the spinners is recorded. Given that at least one spinner
lands on a 3, find the probability of the spinners indicating a sum of exactly 5.

2. C and D are events such that p(C) = 0.2, p(D) = 0.1 and p(C/D) = 0.3. Find p(D/C),
′ ′ ′
p(C ∩ D ) and p(C ∩ D).

5
3. The turnout of spectators at a motor rally is dependent on the weather. On a rainy day,
the probability of a big turnout is 0.4 but if it does not rain the probability of a big turn
increases to 0.9. The weather forecast gives a probability of 0.75 that it will rain on the day
of the race.

a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.

b) Find the probability that

i) there is a big turnout and it rains.

ii) there is a big turnout.

Properties of Conditional Probability

Because conditional probability is just a probability, it satisfies the three axioms of probability.
That is, as long as p(B) > 0:

1. p(A/B) ⩾ 0.

2. p(B/B) = 1.

3. If A1 , A2 , . . . , Ak are mutually exclusive events, then p(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ ... ∪ Ak /B) = p(A1 /B) +
p(A2 /B) + ... + P(Ak /B) and likewise for infinite unions.

Class Exercise 2

Show that conditional probabilities satisfy the three axioms of probability.

Reference

1 Morris H DeGroot & Mark J Schervish (2012) Probability and Statistics; 4th Edition, Pearson
Education, Inc.

2 Robert V Hogg, Elliot A. Tanis & Dale L. Zimmerman (2015) Probability & Statistical
Inference; 9th Edition, Pearson Education, Inc.