CHAPTER 1

BACKGROUND STUDY

1. SPACE WEATHER AND ITS RELEVANCE:

The background of how radio transmission is affected by ionospheric disturbances feels similar
to removing layers from an onion. In essence, solar energy creates layers of charged particles
that make up the ionosphere. Radiation waves can be reflected by these layers, which is fantastic
for long-distance communication. However, the ionosphere becomes excited when the sun gets
ferocious and releases coronal mass ejections or solar flares. The ionosphere becomes more
ionized and occasionally disordered as a result of these events, which inject additional energy
into it. Radio transmissions may be improved or deteriorated as a result. For example, shortwave
radio transmissions might bounce farther than usual during brief solar outbursts, which can
produce a lot of interference even though the broadcast sounds fantastic. And even with a
precision technology like GPS, its precision can be affected by even the smallest disruption.
For a considerable amount of time, scientists have been researching this amazing event. They
have learned a great deal about how disturbances might affect radio wave propagation by
studying the behavior of the ionosphere and how it interacts with radio waves.
Understanding the many ionosphere levels and their properties is a crucial component of this
research. The D, E, and F layers are just a few of the layers that make up the ionosphere, and
each has unique characteristics. Depending on variables including frequency, angle of incidence,
and electron density, these layers have the ability to reflect, refract, and absorb radio waves.

When an ionospheric disturbance occurs, it can disrupt normal behavior of these layers. For
example, during a solar flare or geomagnetic storm, the increased energy input can cause the
ionosphere to become more ionized and turbulent. This turbulence can lead to irregularities in
the electron density disruption, affecting the propagation of radio waves.

The term "space weather" describes how the Sun affects the atmosphere in space, especially in
the vicinity of Earth. Solar activity, which includes events like solar flares, coronal mass
ejections (CMEs), and solar wind, is a major force behind these conditions. Space weather
phenomena can have a substantial impact on Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere, which can
then have an impact on a number of technological systems, such as power grids, GPS systems,
and satellite communications.

Within the framework of this study, the main focus is on how space weather phenomena affect
radio wave propagation, particularly in the high-frequency (HF) and very high-frequency (VHF)
bands that are utilized for scientific, navigational, and communication applications.

1.1. Solar Activity and Radio wave propagation:

Magnetic fields, charged particles, and electromagnetic radiation are all released by the Sun. The
Earth's magnetic field and ionosphere are affected by a surge of charged particles and radiation
that occurs during times of enhanced solar activity, such as solar flares and CMEs. Because it
reflects and refracts radio signals, the ionosphere is an essential layer for radio wave propagation
because it enables radio waves to travel far beyond the horizon. But during space weather
phenomena, the following interferences take place:
Solar Flares: The Earth's atmosphere quickly ionizes when solar flares unleash bursts of intense
ultraviolet and X-ray radiation, especially in the ionosphere's D-layer. This amplifies the
absorption of high-frequency radio waves, frequently resulting in signal deterioration or radio
blackouts.

Massive eruptions of solar wind and magnetic fields that rise above the solar corona are known
as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs. CMEs have the potential to start geomagnetic storms when
they hit the Earth. Radio communications may experience phase changes, signal fading, and
scintillation as a result of these storms' disruptions of the magnetosphere and ionosphere of the
Earth.

Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Storms: The Earth's magnetic field interacts with the solar wind,
which is a stream of charged particles that are released from the Sun.

1.2. The Ionosphere and its role in communication:

The portion of Earth's atmosphere that is ionized by solar and cosmic radiation is known as the
ionosphere. It is composed of many layers (D, E, F1, and F2), with different levels of ionization
in each layer. The ionosphere is necessary for skywave propagation, which allows long-distance
satellite-free communication by reflecting HF radio signals back to Earth.

However, space weather events have an impact on the very changeable ionosphere. Radio wave
propagation is influenced by the ionosphere's refractive and reflective qualities, which are
determined by its Total Electron Content (TEC). Rapid variations in TEC during space weather
events can result in signal loss or delays, particularly for GNSS systems.

Furthermore, during geomagnetic storms, the F-layer is frequently disrupted, leading to signal
disturbances or communication failures.

1.3. The impact of Space weather on Modern Technology:

Space Weather's Effect on Contemporary Technologies
The significance of comprehending the effects of space weather has increased due to the
increasing dependence on technologies based in space. The ionosphere is essential for signal
transmission in many contemporary systems, including global navigation satellite systems
(GNSS). GPS and GLONASS are examples of GNSS systems that rely on line-of-sight signals
that penetrate the ionosphere. Positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) services may be
disrupted by substantial errors introduced into these systems by changes in ionospheric density,
such as those brought on by geomagnetic storms.
Similarly, solar and geomagnetic disturbances can affect high-frequency (HF) communication
systems, which are widely employed in aviation, maritime, and military activities. Since the
ionosphere reflects HF signals, any disruptions may cause radio blackouts or signal loss,
especially at higher latitudes where the Earth's magnetic field is weaker.
1.4. Previous research on Space weather events and Radio Wave Propagation:
Past Studies on Radio Wave Propagation and Space Weather
Previous studies have demonstrated the intricate and multifaceted interaction between radio
wave propagation and space weather. The goal of early research was to determine how solar
cycles affected radio transmissions. It was discovered that one of the main determinants of
ionospheric conditions and radio signal reliability is the 11-year solar cycle, which is marked by
intervals of high and low solar activity.

Ground-based monitoring and satellite data have been combined in more recent research to
create predictive models for ionospheric disruptions. Studies employing Total Electron Content
(TEC) data from GNSS-based sensors have made it possible to better understand how radio wave
propagation is impacted by ionospheric variability. Research has also looked into mitigation
techniques including frequency agility or shifting operating frequencies.
For example, studies conducted during Cycle 24's solar maximum (about 2014–2015) showed
that strong geomagnetic activity was the cause of more radio communication failures and signal
delays in GNSS systems. These discoveries have influenced the creation of methods for space
weather forecasting that lessen the threats to communication networks.

1.5. Rationale of this research:

There are still a lot of unanswered questions about how to effectively predict in real time how
localized space weather phenomena would affect radio wave propagation, despite great
breakthroughs in forecasting. Furthermore, there is a critical need to comprehend these
interactions better and create more resilient communication networks as solar activity rises
toward the next solar maximum, which is anticipated to occur around Solar Cycle 25.

By examining space weather data and radio communication disturbances during recent solar
outbursts, this research aims to close these gaps. By better understanding the effects of space
weather on HF and trans-ionospheric communication systems, the study hopes to contribute to
the development of adaptable mitigation techniques.

1.6. Statement of the Problem:

The increasing reliance on radio wave-based communication systems, such as high-frequency

(HF) communications, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and other trans-ionospheric
systems, has made space weather events a critical concern. Space weather phenomena, driven
primarily by solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms, have been
shown to cause significant disruptions to radio wave propagation, leading to communication
blackouts, signal degradation, and positioning errors.
Despite ongoing advancements in space weather forecasting and ionospheric modeling, the
ability to predict and mitigate the impact of these events remains inadequate. Current models fail
to accurately capture localized space weather disturbances, leaving critical systems, such as
aviation, military, and emergency communication, vulnerable during peak solar activity. The
challenges are exacerbated as we approach the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 25, with a
projected increase in the frequency and intensity of geomagnetic storms.

Thus, the problem this research addresses is the inconsistent performance of radio
communication systems during space weather events and the limited ability of current models to
predict and mitigate these disruptions in real-time.

1.7. Aim of the Research

The primary aim of this research is to investigate the impact of space weather events on radio
wave propagation and to propose strategies for mitigating these effects to ensure more reliable
communication systems. The research seeks to analyze the interaction between space weather
phenomena and ionospheric conditions, examining how solar activity influences the performance
of radio waves in the HF and trans-ionospheric bands. The ultimate goal is to contribute to the
development of adaptive communication systems and improved space weather forecasting that
can better mitigate the effects of space weather on radio communications.

1.8. Objectives of the Research

To achieve the aim of the study, the following specific objectives were outlined:

1. To analyze the relationship between solar activity and ionospheric disturbances:

- This objective focuses on identifying how solar flares, CMEs, and solar wind cause
fluctuations in the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere and how these fluctuations
affect radio wave propagation.

2. To investigate the impact of geomagnetic storms on HF and trans-ionospheric

communications:
- This objective aims to study how geomagnetic storms lead to communication blackouts,
signal degradation, and scintillation in HF and GNSS signals, using real-world data from satellite
and ground-based monitoring systems.

3. To evaluate the effectiveness of current predictive models in forecasting space weather

impacts on radio communication systems:
- This objective will assess the accuracy and limitations of existing space weather forecasting
models and ionospheric prediction systems, focusing on how well they capture real-time space
weather events and predict radio wave disruptions.

4. To propose strategies for mitigating the effects of space weather on radio wave propagation:
- This involves exploring potential solutions such as frequency agility, real-time monitoring,
and adaptive communication technologies that can reduce the impact of space weather on
communication systems, particularly for critical sectors like aviation, maritime, and defense.
5. To conduct qualitative interviews with experts in space weather and communication systems:
- By gathering expert opinions, this objective aims to deepen the understanding of the
challenges posed by space weather and explore real-world mitigation strategies currently used by
professionals in industries dependent on radio wave propagation.

6. To provide recommendations for future research and policy development:

- Based on the findings, this objective will propose directions for future studies and policy
improvements in space weather monitoring, forecasting, and the development of resilient
communication systems.

1.9. Conclusion

The research addresses a significant gap in the understanding of how space weather events
disrupt radio communications and the effectiveness of current mitigation strategies. Through a
combination of quantitative analysis of space weather data and qualitative insights from expert
interviews, this study aims to contribute to the development of more reliable communication
systems that can withstand the adverse effects of space weather, ultimately supporting sectors
that rely on uninterrupted radio communication.

---

This comprehensive set of objectives ensures that the research not only identifies the key
challenges caused by space weather but also provides practical solutions to enhance the
resilience of global communication networks.
 CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
The ionosphere, a region of Earth’s upper atmosphere, is a dynamic environment influenced by
solar radiation and geomagnetic activity. The ionosphere is divided into layers based on the
distribution of electrons and height. The main layers are D, E, and F regions, which can be
further divided into D, E layers, and F region. The upper atmosphere is a host to a variety of
"weather events" or disturbances which are most readily apparent by their effects on radio
communication, by unusual auroral displays or by fluctuations in the magnetic field at the
surface of the Earth. Since these weather events were first identified by such indicators, different
names may be used for events that are closely associated but one must also keep in mind that
closely associated events may have quite different causes. Understanding these disturbances is
crucial for improving communication and navigation systems that rely on ionospheric
transmission. Over the years, there has been a series of events and research carried out to
determine the impact of solar activities on radio communications systems, and how these
activities affect the ionosphere.
This review aligns research on how space weather events influence ionospheric conditions and,
also, radio wave propagation, drawing from studies published from various articles and journals
valid until now.

IONOSPHERIC STRUCTURE AND BEHAVIOR:

The ionosphere is divided into several layers (D, E, F1, and F2) based on electron density and
altitude. These layers vary in their impact on radio wave propagation. Each with unique
properties and reactions to solar stimuli. The ionospheric layers are characterized by varying
electron densities, which influence their reflective and refractive properties for radio waves.
During quiet space weather conditions, these layers contribute to the stable propagation of high
frequency (HF) and very high frequency (VHF) radio waves through mechanisms such as
reflection and refraction. The ionosphere’s behavior is influenced by solar adiation, which
ionizes atmospheric particles, and geomagnetic activity, which can enhance or deplete electron
densities. The ionosphere is a gas that is only slightly ionized, located between the Earth's
atmosphere and magnetosphere. At longer wavelengths, the ionosphere acts like a multi-layered
dielectric, and its capacity to reflect radio waves is widely recognized. This characteristic
allowed Guglielmo Marconi to achieve the milestone of being the first to send radio waves
across the Atlantic Ocean from Cornwall in England to Newfoundland in Canada during his
renowned experiment in 1901, even though he was unaware of this factor at the time.
Total Electron Content (TEC): (Lopez et al., 2023) identifies TEC as a key parameter that
characterizes the integrated electron density along signal’s path. TEC is the total number of
electrons in the path from the satellite to the receiver, in a column with a 1m 2 cross-section.
It has its unit as TECU, where 1TECU= 1016 e/m-2 is a parameter that describes the behavior of
the ionosphere. During radio wave propagation, electron density in Earth’s atmosphere varies
over nominal range of 1016e/m-2 – 1019e/m-2, being the minimal level reached and maximum level
reached around midnight and mid-afternoon, respectively, and is obtained from signals
L1(1.57542 GHz) and L2 (1.2276 GHz) of GPS. However, this region is not impervious to the
influence of solar activity, particularly solar flares—intense bursts of radiation and energy
released from the Sun’s surface. Solar flares can lead to significant disturbances in the
ionosphere, impacting TEC and affecting the reliability and performance of high-frequency
communication and navigation systems.

SPACE WEATHER EVENTS AND THEIR IMPACT:

Space weather refers to the environmental conditions in space influenced by the Sun and the
solar wind, which can significantly affect the Earth’s ionosphere. The effect of space weather on
radio wave propagation is one of the most severe aspects of space weather, particularly through
the ionosphere. Space weather events significantly disturb the ionosphere in various ways. Solar
flares release vast amounts of X-rays and ultraviolet radiation, which increase ionization rates,
particularly in the D and E regions, causing enhanced absorption of HF radio waves, a
phenomenon known as shortwave fadeout. CMEs, on the other hand, inject energetic particles
into the Earth's magnetosphere, leading to geomagnetic storms that perturb the ionosphere, often
causing phase and amplitude scintillations in trans-ionospheric signals.
It is well known that space weather can cause significant disruptions to modern communications
and navigation systems, leading to increased safety risks, economic losses, and reduced quality
of life. Operators of critical infrastructures (both national and international) are also increasingly
aware that extreme space-weather events can have severe impacts on their systems. For example,
strong ionospheric disturbances can degrade, and sometimes deny access to satellite positioning,
navigation, and timing services, central to the operation of many infrastructures. [M. Ishii, J.
Berdermann, B. Forte et al., Space weather impact on radio communication and navigation,
Advances in Space Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2024.01.043]
Here are some space weather events that disturb the ionosphere and have immense effect on
radio wave propagation. flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs) and coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) can cause ionospheric disturbances affecting HF, VHF, and L-band signals used for
radio communication and satellite-based positioning [Berdermann et al., 2018; John et al., 2021;
Forte et al., in press]. In addition, solar radio Solar bursts can emit noise in a wide range of
frequencies affecting radio signals used in many critical infrastructures and services, e.g., global
navigation satellite systems (GNSS), communication and radar systems [Sato et al., 2019b,
2019a]. Other more regional ionospheric phenomena that have an impact on satellite radio
signals include sporadic E-layer (Es), equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs), plasma patches, auroral
precipitation and polar cap absorption.

SOLAR FLARES:

Solar flares can also be referred to as chromospheric burst. It is the significant release of high
energy radiation frequency observed from the sun. These sudden bursts of electromagnetic
radiation from the Sun cause rapid ionization in the ionosphere, particularly affecting the D-
layer. This can lead to sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs), resulting in increased HF radio
wave absorption (Zhang et al., 2019). Solar flares can lead to significant disturbances in the
ionosphere that impact the Total electric content (TEC) and affect the reliability of high
frequency communication and navigation system. Solar flares can hold immense importance in
the realm of space weather due to their powerful and energetic nature. They stem from an active
region of the sun, typically near a cluster of sunspots. They can endure from minutes to hours. A
substantial number of protons, electrons and intense radiation spanning the entire
electromagnetic spectrum are emitted. Solar flares can cause ionospheric disturbances affecting
HF, VHF, and L-band signals used for radio communication and satellite-based positioning.
Solar flares can rapidly increase ionization in the ionosphere, causing sudden ionospheric
disturbance (SID) that affects HF communication. Research by Tsurutani et al. (2009) has shown
that extreme ultraviolet and X-ray emissions play a critical role in such disturbances. Solar flares
are intense bursts of radiation from the Sun that increases the ionization in the D-layer (the
lowest part of Earth’s mantle, located just above the liquid outer core and about 3,000 kilometers
deep) of the ionosphere. This can lead to shortwave fadeouts (SWFs). Shortwave Fadeout is a
phenomenon in which a sudden increase in the intensity of X-rays during a solar flare causes a
sudden increase in electron density in the D-region [M. Ishii, J. Berdermann, B. Forte et al.,
Space weather impact on radio communication and navigation, Advances in Space Research,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2024.01.043]. The enhanced electron density then results in the
absorption of high-frequency (HF, 3 30 MHz) radio waves (also known as ‘‘short waves”), due to
collisions between electrons and the surrounding neutral atmospheric particles. This phenomenon
is also called the Dellinger phenomenon (Dellinger, 1937). The higher the electron density in the
D-region, the greater the amount of absorption, and the lower the frequency of radio waves, the
greater the effect. Solar flares can lead to sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs), particularly
affecting high-frequency (HF) radio communications (Kane, 2002).

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS:
Geomagnetic storms are major disturbances in Earth’s magnetosphere caused by solar wind
interactions. These storms can significantly impact the ionosphere, leading to various changes
that affect radio wave propagation. They are primarily caused by the interaction between Earth’s
magnetosphere and solar wind, which is often intensified by solar phenomena such as coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) and high-speed solar wind streams. (Shi et al., 2019) understood that
these interactions lead to the compression and reconfiguration of Earth’s magnetosphere,
resulting in enhanced currents and electric fields in the ionosphere. The impact of geomagnetic
storms can last from hours to several days, depending on the severity of the storm. The storms
are categorized based on their intensity, with stronger storms causing more pronounced effects
on Earth’s atmosphere and technology dependent systems. (Cherniak et al., 2018) realized
geomagnetic storms can lead to increased ionization in the auroral and polar regions due to the
influx of energetic particles. In contrast, mid-latitude regions might experience ionization
depletion due to disturbed electric fields and thermospheric winds.
These storms can cause large-scale redistribution of ionospheric plasma, creating irregularities
that scatter radio waves. [Kelly et al., 2009] highlighted the role of auroral and equatorial
phenomena in these disturbances. Geomagnetic storms resulting from interactions between the
solar wind and Earth’s disturbances. These storms are characterized by increased auroral activity
and enhanced ionospheric currents.
Geomagnetic storms heat the ionosphere, resulting in thermal expansion and altered electron
density profiles, which can produce sporadic E layers and disrupt the F region. Geomagnetic
storms impact the ionosphere by increasing thermal energy. The thermal expansion in the
ionosphere alters electron density profiles. This process can lead to the creation of sporadic E
layers, and the disturbances in the F region result from these changes in the electron density
(Fang et al., 2020). Geomagnetic storms induce ionospheric irregularities and plasma bubbles,
which are regions of reduced electron density. These irregularities can scatter and refract radio
waves, leading to signal degradation (Pradipta & Doherty, 2019).
Geomagnetic storms significantly affect radio wave propagation through:
 Signal Absorption: Enhanced ionization in the lower ionosphere (D and E layers) during
the geomagnetic storms increases HF radio wave absorption, causing signal degradation
and loss (Zhang et al., 2019)
 Phase and Amplitude Scintillation: (Li et al., 2020) stated that ionospheric irregularities
cause rapid fluctuations in the phase and amplitude of tans-ionospheric signals, affecting
satellite communication and GNSS accuracy. This is particularly severe in equatorial and
high latitude regions during geomagnetic storms.
 Frequency Shifts and Doppler Effects: Variations in ionospheric electron density during
geomagnetic storms can cause frequency shifts and Doppler effects on radio signals,
complicating communication and navigation system operations (Shi et al., 2019).
 Propagation Path Changes: Geomagnetic storms alter the propagation paths of HF radio
waves, leading to unpredictable signal paths and potential communication blackouts. This
is due to changes in the ionospheric refractive index caused by variations in electron
density (Fang et al., 2020).
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CMEs):
CMEs can induce geomagnetic storms by enhancing magnetospheric convection and disturbing
the ionospheric electric fields. Foster et al. (2002) discussed how CMEs change the ionospheric
electron density, disrupting GPS signals through phase scintillations. CMEs consist of large
structures containing plasma and magnetic fields that are expelled from the Sun into the
heliosphere. They are of interest for both scientific and technological reasons. Scientifically they
are of interest because they remove built-up magnetic energy and plasma from the solar corona,
and technologically they are of interest because they are responsible for most extreme space
weather effects at Earth. Which is one of the main aims of this review. CMEs are massive bursts
of solar wind and magnetic fields rising above the solar corona. When directed towards Earth,
CMEs can cause geomagnetic storms that lead to large-scale ionospheric disturbances, disrupting
HF and very high-frequency (VHF) communications (Gonzalez et al., 1999).
TYPHOON:

A typhoon is a tropical cyclone arising in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. It is one of the natural
sources releasing energy and affecting all the subsystems in the Earth-atmosphere-ionosphere-
magnetosphere system (EAIMS). Chernogor (2006, 2011, 2012) and Chernogor and Rozumenko
(2008) have estimated the parameters of typhoons and tropical cyclones in detail. At the low-
pressure center of a strong typhoon, pressure can deficit of approximately 110-150 hPa, that is,
11%- 15%. A typhoon radius attains 300km, and its mass is 2 x 10 15kg. A typhoon rises when the
ocean provides latent heat to the overlaying atmospheric layers. The strongest typhoon consumes
approximately 1020J per day. Approximately the same amount of energy is released from water
vapor condensation. Approximately 1% of the energy mentioned above is transformed into
kinetic energy of rotational motion and, to a lesser degree, of translational motion of the typhoon,
which is estimated to be approximately 10 18J, whereas the power is estimated to be
approximately 1013W, which is greater than the amount of all energy consumed by humans
(Chernogor, 2006, 2022, 2012; Chernogor and Rozumenko, 2008).

The first conclusive causal relationships between ionospheric events and tropospheric weather
were revealed by HF Doppler soundings back in 1967 (Georges, 1967). Utilizing observations
made with Doppler radar, Bakerand Davies (1969), Georges (1973), and Prasad et al. (1975)
were the first to describe the ionospheric response to powerful atmospheric processes. Later,
Huang et al. (1985) continued to study ionospheric disturbances caused by typhoons with the HF
Doppler technique. These results were confirmed in the work by Xiao et al. (2007), who
analyzed the ionospheric responses to 24 typhoons and established their basic patterns.

A few studies have revealed the basic features of the disturbances generated in the ionosphere by
typhoons. (Vanina-Dart et al., 2007) studied the ionospheric response to typhoons in sounding
rocket experiments. They observed a reduction in the electron density of the ionospheric E region
but did not detect an ionospheric F2-region response. Zakharov and Kunitsyn (2012) employed
correlation techniques to show that quasi-sinusoidal disturbances in total electron content (TEC),
and thus in the ionospheric electron density, are enhanced when air masses run on the coast. The
effectiveness of the excitation of these disturbances’ peaks when typhoon power and the air
speed attain maximum. This means that the generation of quasi-sinusoidal disturbances is not
coupled with the low-pressure center where the air does not move. Polyakova and Perevalova
(2013) established that the amplitude of ionospheric disturbances is in direct proportionality to
typhoon power. Li et al. (2017) analyzed TEC variations observed during six typhoons in the
East Asian region and four cyclones in the North American zone and deter-mined the
morphological features of ionospheric disturbances. GPS networks have revealed that a reduction
(up to 50%) in the electron number density N arises at the edge of a typhoon instead of occurring
at its low-pressure center (Li et al., 2018).

Unlike the typhoon, the horizontal dimensions of the tornado are smaller by 3–4 orders of
magnitude, the energy of the tornado is by 6–8 orders of magnitude smaller, and the power of the
tornado is smaller by 3–6 orders of magnitude (Chernogor, 2006, 2011, 2012; Chernogor &
Rozumenko, 2008). Therefore, the ionospheric effects of tornados are almost insignificant.
In addition to disturbances in N, typhoons are capable of exciting, localized disturbances in
quasi-steady electric fields and in the geomagnetic field (Chernogor, 2006, 2011, 2012;

the amplitude of the electric fields to be ∼25 mV/m. (Zakharov et al., 2019) used Swarm satellite
Chernogor & Rozumenko, 2008). (Isaevet al., 2002, 2010) and Sorokin et al. (2005) estimated

ionosphere; they showed that the ΔN/N values attained 10% and ∼10-s period variations in the
data to study the impact of typhoon 201419 Vongfong on the geomagnetic field and the

geomagnetic field reached 0.5–1.5 nT. (Yiğit et al., 2016) presented a review of the effects of
atmospheric-ionospheric coupling appearing due to various physical causes. At present, the
mechanisms for coupling between the subsystems in the EAIMS during typhoon development
and movement are not reliably established. Currently, the acoustic and atmospheric gravity
waves generated by the turbulence produced by the typhoon are considered to be the main

∼1- to 5-min periods, T, of the waves generated in the atmosphere by typhoons pertains to
mechanism (Bondur et al., 2008; Chou et al., 2017; Huang et al., 1985).The high-frequency part,

infrasound (see, e.g., Chum et al., 2018), while the low-frequency portion, T ∼ 10–60 min,
pertains to internal gravity waves (Gossard & Hooke, 1975). The infrasound could be related to
the generation of MHD waves (geomagnetic pulsations). Typhoons can also give rise to electric
currents caused by nonelectrical forces and to quasi-steady electric fields (Chernogor, 2006,
2012; Isaev et al., 2002). An additional electric field can also be induced by the movement of
lower-ionosphere neutrals dragging charged particles (Pokhotelov et al., 1994). This field can
impact the high-energy electrons in the inner radiation belt and, under certain conditions,
inducing their precipitation (Chernogor, 2006, 2012). The precipitation of radiation belt electrons
occurs via the interaction with whistler waves originating from regular lightning (Bortnik et al.,
2006; Inan et al., 2007).
The ionospheric response to the action of the super typhoon Hagibis has been observed in the
ionosphere at oblique incidence with the multifrequency multiple path radio system involving the
software-defined technology (Chernogor et al., 2021). The typhoon 201919 Hagibis, which
occurred from 6 October 2019 through 13 October 2019, has been the strongest typhoon for over
60 years. It had one of the longest durations. Its parameters sustained their maximum values
during 66 hr. On 10 October 2019, the fluctuating pressure varied from 1,010to 904 hPa. The
fastest rate of drop, −43 hPa/hr, in its pressure was observed to occur during the night of
6/7October 2019. The fastest rate of its pressure growth of 1.1 hPa/hr was observed to persist
from 10 to 13 October2019, and the storm winds exhibited an increase in their speed from 7.8
m/s on 5 October 2019 to 71.8 m/s on7 October 2019. The latter speed value remained
approximately the same from 7 to 10 October 2019. The rate of an increase in the wind speed
attained 10 m/s per hour, and the rate of a decrease in the wind speed reached–2.2 m/s per hour.
The action of the super typhoon was accompanied by enhanced wave activity acting to generate
wave processes with periods of 12–15 to 60–150 min in the atmosphere. The coupling in the
troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere-thermosphere-ionosphere system has been confirmed to be
carried out with the atmospheric gravity waves. The ionosphere underwent the greatest impact on
8, 10, and especially 9 October 2019 when the super typhoon energy attained a maximum value
and when the typhoon was found to be in the ∼2,500–3,000-kmdistance range from the
propagation path midpoints. Under the action of wave processes on 9 October 2019, the height of
the reflection level was observed to oscillate within the 30–50 km to 60–90 km limits. The

estimated to be 10%–12% for periods of ∼20 min, and 30%–60% for periods of ∼60–120 min.
amplitude of the quasi-sinusoidal variations in the ionospheric F-region electron density was

The manifestations of infrasonic oscillations in the ionosphere have been detected, the period of
which changed from 2 to 7 min, depending on the altitude of sounding. The relative amplitude of
the quasi-sinusoidal variations in the electron density varied in the0.2%–0.4% range.
The statistics of ionospheric disturbances from all large 2014 tropical cyclones has been
discussed in the recent paper by Zakharov and Sigachov (2022). At present, the ionospheric
response to typhoons has not been investigated as a function of geographic coordinates, local
time, season, solar cycle activity, and the state of space weather. The response of different
ionospheric regions to typhoons has not been sufficiently studied, and the response of the
magnetosphere and radiation belts to typhoons has not been revealed either. The known
ionospheric effects from typhoons require specification of their numerical values. Additionally,
the involvement of other techniques (the observation of anomalies in the VLF signal propagation
(Manson et al., 2006), the differential absorption technique (Belrose & Burke, 1964; Gardner &
Pawsey, 1953), the HF Doppler technique at vertical incidence (Davies, 2008), and the
incoherent scatter radar technique) for determining the ionospheric response to typhoons would
be appropriate. All these factors attest to the urgency of investigating the response of the EAIMS,
particularly of the ionosphere, to the action of typhoons.
The purpose of this paper is to describe ionospheric disturbances and the variations in radio-
wave characteristics along many propagation paths of various orientations and lengths in the 5–
10 MHz range and to reveal the magnitudes of ionospheric distortion of the Doppler shifts of
frequency, signal amplitudes, and the electron density variations, associated with super typhoon
Lekima that took place during the 4–12 August 2019 period. The name Lekima was retired
during the 53rd annual session held on 26 February 2021 by the Typhoon Committee, a joint body
of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific and the World
Meteorological Organization (see https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/typhoon-committee-
holds-an-nual-session; last access: 7 June 2022). A replacement name was chosen to be Co-
May). The ionospheric response was observed by the Harbin Engineering University
multifrequency multiple path coherent radio system located in the People's Republic of China.
The raw datasets recorded by the multifrequency multiple path system and discussed in this
paper can be requested online at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/PQX0XG (Garmash, 2020).
Table 1 presents basic information on super typhoon Lekima; part of the information was
retrieved from http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/201909.html.en. t shows

hPa, which took place on 8 August2019, when the typhoon was ∼1,200 km off the southern tip
that the typhoon lasted for8.5 days; the pressure maximum deficit was equal to approximately 75

(20°13′.5 N, 109°55′.2 E) of the mainland People’s Republic of China (PRC); the position and
magnitude of the maximum pressure deficit can be seen in Figures 1 and 2, respectively. On 10
August 2019, when the typhoon reached the PRC coast near the city of Shanghai, the pressure
deficit was observed to be approximately 30 hPa. Until 12 August 2019, the pressure deficit was
near 20 hPa. On 14 August 2019, typhoon Lekima ceased to exist. According to the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (see NOAA Public Information Statement at
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/features/HurricaneScaleMod.html; last access: 7
June 2022), the Lekima typhoon is a Category 3 (major) intensity tropical storm on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, sustained winds in the 178–208 km/hr range. The largest radius
of the storm wind (24.5–28.4 m/s) was 190 km, and the largest radius of the gale (17.2–20.7 m/s)
was 700 km. The length of the typhoon path is estimated to be 2,854 km, with an average speed
of 14.0 km/hr or 3.9 m/s and a maximum wind speed of 195 km/hr or 54 m/s. According to the
Classification of Intensity of Typhoons last access: 7 June 2022) (http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-
typhoon/help/unit.html.en#intensity; last access: 7 June 2022), such a typhoon is classified as
violent. Applying the methodology of Chernogor (2006, 2011, 2012)and Chernogor and
Rozumenko (2008), the typhoon energy is estimated to be 7.8 × 10 17 J, and its power to be 4.6
× 10 12 W. Typhoon Lekima brought torrential rains and strong winds to the coast of Zhejiang
province, damage and casualties were widespread, at least 66 people were killed, more than14
million people were affected, and thousands of houses were destroyed(Wu et al., 2021). In all,
2.7 million homes lost power, more than 800,000people were successfully evacuated only from
the city of Zhejiang and250,000 people from the city of Shanghai. The economic loss amounts to
approximately 8 billion US dollars (Tsai et al., 2020).
TABLE 1
Basic Parameters of the Super Typhoon Lekima (Courtesy of Asanobu KITAMOTO, Digital
Typhoon, Digital Typhoon, National Institute of Informatics, Japan)

Birth 2019-08-04 06:00:00 UT

Death (Latest) 2019-08-12 18:00:00 UT

Lifetime 204 hr/8.500 days

Minimum pressure 925 hPa

Pressure maximum deficit 75 hPa

Maximum wind speed 195km/hr (54m/s)

Largest radius of storm wind 190 km

Length radius of gale 700 km

Length radius of movement 2,854 km

Average speed 14.0 km/hr (3.9 m/s)

 Range of movement Latitude 21.00: Longitude 11.10

Typhoon kinetic energy 7.8 x 1017J

Typhoon power 4.6 x 1012W

Rainfall 250-300 mn/hr

-10 hPa/6 hr; -20 hPa/12 hr
Maximum pressure drops -35 hPa/24 hr; -50 hPa/48 hr

Data start 2019-08-02 06:00:00 UT

Data end 2019-08-14 18:00:00 UT

Data duration 300 hr/12.500 days

Note: The data are retrieved from ttp://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital
typhoon/summary/wnp/s/201909.html.en.

SPACE WEATHER IMAPCT ON RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION:

Polar Cap Absorption (PCA):

Polar Cap Absorption is a phenomenon in which the ionization of the D region of the ionosphere
in the polar cap region is rapidly enhanced by Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) emitted by the
shock waves ahead of fast CMEs and by solar flares, resulting in increased absorption of radio
waves and the loss of communication using HF band. This phenomenon occurs 30 min to several
hours after a solar flare occurs or a fast CME is launched and, in the case of CME, may continue
for several days. PCA is like SWF in that radio waves are absorbed due to anomalous ionization
in the D region. Whilst the SWF occurs only in the daytime, PCA occurs day and night in the
polar cap region and equatorward down to approximately 60-65 deg geomagnetic latitude.
Therefore, aeronautical radio communications with aircraft flying over polar routes, including
many key air routes between Asia and North America (Jones et al., 2005)

Sporadic E (Es) Layers:

The Es layer is a dense layer of metal ions that forms in conjunction with wind shears around
110km, gradually descending to about 100km, and eventually decaying by recombination. These
so-called sporadic-E layers tend to occur frequently in summer and, at that time, may appear as a
series of events, each exhibiting a descent as noted earlier. When the direction of propagation of
radio waves into the ionosphere becomes oblique and the angle of incidence increases, the
reflective frequency increases. This can cause interference with distant communications outside
the line of sight.
[FIG 1] shows a schematic of the effects of the Es layer on air navigation: the Es layer allows
VHF radio waves (108-137 MHz for commercial aviation) emitted from out-of-sight ground
stations to reach aircraft, causing interference. Monitoring observations of VHF air navigation
message propagation in Kure City, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan, have received radio waves from
numerous out-of-sight transmitting points (Sakai et al., 2019)

Solar Radio Burst (SRB):

Solar Radio Burst is a radio frequency emission from the sun which starts simultaneously with
the burst of EUV and X-rays that is the key feature of a solar flare. When the solar radio burst
occurs, it usually starts by emitting radio waves at GHz frequencies around the time of the flare,
but may continue long after the flare, but may continue long after the flare but with the emission
frequency gradually slipping to MHz frequencies. As with solar flares these radio bursts have
their origin in solar active regions. Whilst a SWF mainly affects the utility of the HF frequency
range, an SRB can affect a wide range of various radio systems, such as GNSS (Sato et al.,
2019b, 2019a), line-of-sight radio-communications where the Sun lies in the collecting area of
the receiver like base stations of cellular/mobile phone networks (or its side/grating lobes)
(cannon et al., 2013), and radars (Marque et al., 2018). Whilst there has been speculation that
SRBs could interfere with signal reception by cellular phone handsets, there appear to be no
substantive reports of such interference, despite more than 2 decades of extensive global use of
such handsets (Gary and Bastain, 2021).
Extreme Solar Flare Radio Blackout:

[Tulunay and Bradley, 2004] stated that “Electromagnetic energy from a solar eruption travel at
the speed of light from the Sun to the Earth. X-ray and ultraviolent photons strike the upper
atmosphere, produce additional ionization in the ionosphere, and cause absorption and frequency
deviation in high frequency (HF, 3-30 MHz) radio signals and fadeout, noise, and phase change
in other frequency bands.” These effects render HF and similar sky wave communication on the
Earth’s daylight side essentially unusable for 1-3 hours. Microwave emissions can also create
noise in communications satellites and Global Positioning System (GPS) signals which can act
as “natural jamming” that lasts for up to an hour.

Terrestrial line-of-sight very high frequency (VHF, 30–300MHz), ultra-high frequency (UHF,
300MHz–3GHz), and microwave signals that comprise most public safety radio communications
in the world will not be significantly impacted by such an event. This includes line-of-sight VHF
air-to-ground communications used for search and rescue and HF groundwave transmissions out
to 10–60miles. Additionally, major U.S. wireless providers stated that this is also true for cellular
communications. There is one caveat: The Royal Academy of Engineering (RAE) [2013]
concluded that cellular base stations could experience increased noise from Solar Radio Bursts
(SRB) occurring at dawn and dusk for the parts of the network facing the sun. Due to design
similarities, this same potential for increased noise from SRBs occurring at sunrise and sunset
would also exist for public safety radio base station antennas facing the sun.

Induced Geoelectric Fields:

Geomagnetic disturbances can cause an amplification of currents in the earth’s crust, mainly due
to the amplification of auroral currents in the polar ionosphere. Geomagnetically induced
currents affect the stable operation of electric systems (Berngardt et al., 2017). As such, they are
direct mechanisms of influence on radio electronic devices. These currents are probably the first
observable manifestation of the space weather effect on electrical devices.
At present, some organizations use geoelectric field forecasting systems. The increasing interest
in geoelectric fields is associated with effects in electric power networks. These effects often
cause long-term malfunctions in networks in North America, Sweden, and Australia (Marshall et
al., 2011; Berngadt et al., 2017).

Ionizing radiation:
The effect of radiation on various electronic devices has been known for quite a long time
[Ionizing Radiation Effects ..., 2015]; it reduces to a change in characteristics (constant and
temporary) of the devices due to incoming radiation or its related atmospheric processes. This
effect can be observed even on consumer devices, such as smartphones [Whiteson et al., 2014].
These effects are most severe in space vehicles. On average, according to CLUSTER data, a
solar radiation induced decrease in the efficiency of solar panels on board satellites is about 5 %
per year. This limits the time of their operation [Keil, 2007]. An even more important effect is the
degradation of optical and electronic equipment on board satellites, which may also lead to their
loss [Lotóaniu et al., 2015]. Currently, more than 8000 flights a year pass over the North Pole
[Space Weather – Effects on Technology, 2012], hence the need to consider the effect of solar
radiation on health of flight personnel, passengers, and on electronic equipment.
Modes of radio wave propagation in the ionosphere at different frequencies
Range Frequencies Propagation mode
ULF <3 kHz Waveguide, surface wave
VLF 3-30 kHz Waveguide, surface wave
LF (LW) 30-300 kHz Waveguide, surface wave
MF 300-3000 kHz Surface wave, ionospheric
wave
HF 3-30 MHz Surface wave, ionospheric
wave with significant
refraction, meteor scatter, hop
propagation
VHF 30-300 MHz Ionospheric wave (weakly
refractive), meteor scattering
UHF 300-3000 MHz Ionospheric wave (weakly
refractive)
SHF 3-30 GHz Ionospheric wave (weakly
refractive)
EHF 30-300 GHz Ionospheric wave (weakly
refractive)

Table 2 lists the main mechanisms of radio wave propagation in different frequency ranges. In
the lower part of the spectrum (VLF, ULF), radio wave propagation can be described as
waveguide propagation in the effective waveguide formed by Earth’s surface and ionosphere. In
the upper part of the spectrum (SHF, UHF), radio wave propagation can be considered almost
rectilinear, weakly affected by the ionosphere. Between these ranges, the ionospheric impact on
radio wave propagation is most considerable and is best suited for designing tools to monitor
such effects.
Table 3 shows the main functions of radio equipment, indicating corresponding radio ranges. The
ULF range (<3 kHz) has been studied in sufficient detail [Bannister, 1986; Pappert, Moler,
1978]. In its analysis, the ionosphere and Earth are assumed to be ideal, homogeneous, and with
sharp boundaries. The ionosphere acts at these wavelengths as an ideal conductor and generally
has no effect on propagation of these waves. Nevertheless, the lower part of the ionosphere,
especially the sporadic E layer, can influence radio wave characteristics (mainly phase ones) due
to the interference of waves reflected from the regular and sporadic layers [Pappert, 1980].
 Some applications of different frequency ranges
Range Functions
ULF and VLF Navigation, time, frequency signals
LF Navigation, broadcasting
MF Amplitude modulation broadcasting
Radio communication, standard time signals,
HF radiolocation, amateur radio communication,
positioning systems
Television, broadcasting with signal
VHF frequency modulation, aircraft radio
communication
UHF and EHF GPS/GLONASS navigation, radiolocation,
television

The basic model for describing oscillation propagation in VLF and LF ranges is waveguide
propagation. This approach considers the space between the ionosphere and Earth's surface as a
single waveguide. In this case, transverse electric (TE) or transverse magnetic (TM) modes (each
with its own characteristics) arise depending on the type of antenna used to generate radiation.
However, they are not independent due to the presence of an inhomogeneous magnetic field.
As regards the ionospheric effect on radio wave propagation, the VLF/LF range more strongly
depends on ionospheric conditions than ULF, and therefore it is more affected by space weather
disturbances. Without considerable space weather disturbances, VLF/LF radio wave propagation
is more of less stable. Due to interference of different modes and their propagation conditions,
space weather disturbances can cause, for example, sudden phase anomalies (SPA) arising from
the enhancement of the D layer during solar flares. When particles penetrate the polar cap, as
during magnetic storms or polar cap absorption events (PCA), propagation conditions also
change, resulting in phase and amplitude signal distortions. Other factors such as ground
conductivity have also a strong effect on signal characteristics. These factors are most significant
in Polar Regions, which are affected both by the ionosphere and by seasonal dynamics of the
underlying surface. Many researchers combine MF and HF radio ranges because they are
characterized by the so called spatial (sky or ionospheric) wave – a signal path highly refractive
in the ionosphere. Moreover, the so-called surface (ground) wave related to radio wave
propagation along Earth’s surface can be observed in both the ranges. Weakening of the sky
wave, for instance, due to absorption in the D layer, increases the probability of observing the
ground wave. However, sometimes it is convenient to consider the MF and LF ranges at a time,
for instance, to predict characteristics of emission intensity at these wavelengths [Ghasemi et al.,
2013]. A review of experimental data on MF radio wave propagation can be found in [Knight,
1983; Vilensky et al., 1983]. In the VHF range, space weather effects are largely related to phase
and amplitude variations in propagating signals due to ionospheric irregularities of different
scales. If the irregularities have sufficiently small transverse spatial scales, the phenomenon is
observed as scintillation (Priyadarshi et al., 2015); however, if they are relatively large-scale, it
appears as smooth changes in characteristics of the received signal.
The main ionospheric effects (signal group delay, Faraday fading, Doppler frequency shift, etc.)
depend on the integral value of electron density along a propagation path. This value is usually
called total electron content (TEC) and can be measured from data obtained by dual-frequency
GPS receivers [Klobuchar, 1975]. Most errors (up to 70 %) of global satellite positioning can be
corrected by considering this ionospheric correction. Even greater success can be achieved by
knowing the complete three-dimensional distribution of electron density in real time. Ionospheric
effects of global large-scale space weather disturbances can be roughly estimated more easily
using the global electron content – the total amount of electron plasma in the entire ionosphere
[Afraimovich et al., 2008] derived by integrating TEC maps all over the world.
The HF range intermediate between MF and VHF ranges is the most difficult to describe. This is
because the critical (plasma) frequencies of the main ionospheric layers (except the D layer) are
within this range, and the gyrofrequencies are comparable with the lower boundary of the range.
At the same time, HF radio wave propagation can be described in terms of the geometrical optics
(hop propagation) [Ginzburg, 1960] and mode propagation [Kurkin et al., 1981], combining
features of VHF and LF ranges. High sensitivity to absorption also makes it like the lower
frequency ranges, especially MF. At the same time, some HF signals with frequencies above the
critical frequency can propagate under weak distortion of their paths, but under the strong
influence of polarization effects. This makes them close to the VHF range. The existence of
irregularities of the order of wavelength, especially at polar latitudes, leads to strong
backscattering by natural plasma irregularities (radio aurora) as in the VHF range. The existence
of natural ionospheric irregularities smaller than the Fresnel radius results in amplitude-phase
fading (scintillation). Doppler frequency shifts exceeding 1 Hz also make this range like VHF
and UHF ranges.
Therefore, the space weather impact on the HF range is very strong and includes practically the
entire spectrum of effects observable in other ranges: absorption due to ionization during solar
flares, absorption in the polar cap, radio aurora, multimode propagation, group and phase delays
caused by refraction, Faraday and Cotton-Mouton polarization effects (Berngardt et al., 2017).
 CHAPTER 3
MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY
For this research, I used a quantitative approach due to its applicability in providing a wide and
holistic perspective on the effects of space weather on radio waves. A quantitative accumulation
of past historical space weather and radio propagation data and together with these journals and
publications of experts in this area.
Quantitative Analysis
Data Collection
1. Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Data:Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
(SOHO) Data:
 Purpose: Solar events observing to monitor the increase in solar activity like X-rays, UV
radiation and light bursts or flares, CMEs, Mag. Unlike wind speed, the Mag.
 Data: Scientific data were obtained from the archives of the European Space Agency
(ESA) and NASA and included data from SOHO for the period from 2017 to 2024. Some
of the measurements that were incorporated in these data involved solar irradiance,
particle flux and fluctuations in magnetic field.

2. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) TEC Data: Global Navigation Satellite System
(GNSS) TEC Data:
 Purpose: To observe ionospheric TEC and analyze its dependence on Space Weather
phenomena.
 Data: The TEC values were contributed through GNSS networks which provided near
real time TEC measurements of electron density for different latitude and longitude sets.
This gives GNSS receivers capabilities to monitor TEC in near real time so as to evaluate
ionospheric irregularities in relation to space weather activities.

3. Correlation and Time-Series Analysis:

To analyze the quantitative data some statistical techniques were applied. The correlation
analysis revealed that space weather activities such as SOLAR FLARE, CMEs, Geomagnetic
storms etc., are related to abnormality in radio wave propagation. These relationships were
further tested using Pearson coefficient whereby the coefficients showed the magnitude of the
associations.
A temporal analysis was done wherein the trends in ionospheric conditions, for example, TEC
fluctuation and its relationship with HF radio communication were understood and explained.
Multiple Regression Analysis: The effects of various space weather parameters on signal
degradation were investigated with the help of multiple regression analytical techniques on solar
wind speed, geomagnetic activity etc. This made it possible to establish the leading causes of
radio wave disruption as followed.

Qualitative Analysis:
The qualitative data was obtained from experts’ interviews on YouTube and was analyzed using
thematic analysis. This involved taking important notes from the interview transcripts to identify
recurring themes related to:
 The practical effects of space weather on communication systems.

As such, thematic analysis was particularly helpful in identifying the experts’ concerns regarding
current challenges and possibilities regarding further development.

4. Limitations of the Study:

The study was limited by its mixed-methods approach, which offered a comprehensive view, but
also by its reliance on historical data that would not have fully accounted for localized space
weather events. Furthermore, because the qualitative interviews represented the experts’
subjective opinions, they might have been biased.

5. Conclusion:

This methodology provides a thorough investigation of the ways in which space weather
phenomena affect radio wave propagation by integrating strong data collection and analysis
techniques. Empirical evidence and professional opinions are combined to give a thorough grasp
of the obstacles and solutions in the field. This methodology basically explains the technique
used to go about this research and how efficient it was to provide a thorough understanding of
the very complex phenomenon, Space Weather Events and Radio Wave propagation. However,
this study is theoretical and new techniques and methods will be even more effective over time.