Dawood University of Engineering & Technology,

Karachi

Course Report: Pre-Assessment

Probability & Statistics

5th Semester – 2022/F

Syeda Ismat Zehra

 For Course Assessment
1. Assessment means primarily the assessment of course learning outcomes and program learning outcomes
covered by the course. Other additional types of assessment can be used if useful (such as the online student
survey or other assessment techniques).
2. Assessment is mandatory for all courses in each semester. Each faculty member teaching a course must
produce a course assessment report (CAR) as part of the course portfolio.
3. If a course has several sections and each section is taught by a different instructor, assessment must be done
for each section separately.
4. CAR must contain both direct assessment (opinion of the teacher using quizzes, exams, assignments, etc.) and
indirect assessment (opinion of students through surveys).
5. Each faculty member must keep his data at the most detailed level (marks by student, by outcome, and by
quiz/exam/assignment, etc.). Having the data at the detailed level will serve as evidence. It will also allow
generating any aggregation we might need later.
6. Assessment is based on two different levels, first is average score of all students in a specific program outcome,
and second is how well a student has performed in each course learning outcome.

7. The attainment of PLOs must be judged primarily by using the average score of all students in a specific
outcome.
8. Levels of satisfaction in Program Learning Outcomes is defined through KPIs set as follows:
a. For direct assessment:
• Level 4: Unsatisfactory is given to a student whose score in a specific outcome is 60% or lower,
• Level 3: Developing is given to a student whose score in a specific outcome is between 60% and 69%,
• Level 2: Satisfactory is given to a student whose score in a specific outcome is between 70% and 79%,
• Level 1: Exemplary is given to a student whose score in a specific outcome is equal or above 80%.

b. For indirect assessment:

• Unsatisfactory: corresponds to Disagree + Strongly Disagree in a specific outcome.
• Developing: corresponds to Neutral in a specific outcome.
• Satisfactory: corresponds to Agree in a specific outcome.
• Exemplary: corresponds to “Strongly Agree” in a specific outcome.

9. The final judgment of the attainment of PLOs is based on the followings:

Table 1: Criteria for attainment of PLOs

Exceeds Meets Progressing Does Not Meet
Expectations Expectations Towards Expectations Expectations
(EE) (ME) (PE) (DNME)
 The average grade is The average The average The average
80% or more grade is between grade is between grade is less than 60%
70% - 79%
60% - 69%

10. When analyzing the results of the assessment of a course, we must necessarily pay attention to the
following cases:

• Cases with DNME in a specific outcome.

• Cases with PE in a specific outcome.
• Cases with an important discrepancy (let's say > 15%) between direct and indirect
assessment for a specific outcome; especially if the direct assessment (opinion of
teacher) is much higher than the indirect assessment (opinion of students).
• Online Student Survey: if we have questions with Unsatisfactory or Developing, we
should also comment them.

11. The analysis of the assessment results must be oriented towards:

• Identifying the issues and root causes behind the non-attainment of a specific outcome.
• Determining corrective actions to be taken in the following semester(s) to resolve those
issues and root causes.

12. Level of satisfaction in CLOs for individual student are defined through the KPIs set as follows:

• Unsatisfactory is given to a student whose score in a specific outcome is 60% or lower,

• Developing is given to a student whose score in a specific outcome is between 60% and 70%,
• Satisfactory is given to a student whose score in a specific outcome is between 70% and 79%,
• Exemplary is given to a student whose score in a specific outcome is equal or above 80%.

13. At the end of each semester / beginning of following semester, an assessment meeting will be held
at the department level in order to evaluate the teaching achievements and issues of the past
semester based on course assessment reports done for each course taught. An improvement plan
will result based on that assessment meeting. All faculty members should be involved and work to
implement the improvement plan during the following semester(s).

14. Process of reviewing of CLOs shall be based on data collected by CLO assessment. A CLO shall be revisited
in case an overall satisfactory level of that CLO goes below 60%. Recommendation (or mapping) shall be
discussed by and reviewed by OBE Implementation team and shall be forwarded for further approval at
BoS.
 1. Course Summary
Table 2: Course Summary

COURSE SUMMARY
Course Code and Title NS-3012 Probability and Statistics
Semester 5th Semester
Instructor Syeda Ismat Zehra
Course Format (3+0) – 3 hours lectures per week
No. of Students 1 section, 35 students
Average GPA --/ 4

2. Course Contents
Title of Course : : Probability & Statistics
Course Code : NS-3012
Discipline : B.E.
Semester : 5th Semester, Third Year
Effectiveness : Batch 18 and onwards
Course Type : Compulsory
Pre-Requisite : : Calculus & Linear Algebra
Marks : Theory: 100 Practical: 00
Credit Hours : 3 CH 00 CH
Teaching Scheme : 3 Hours / Week 00 Contact Hours / Week
Assessment : 20% Sessional, 30% Mid Semester Examination, 50% Final Semester

Aim:
The aim of this course is concerned with the statistical methods of data handling & analysis of
random phenomena.

Objective:
The course will provide knowledge and skills for the students to apply statistical techniques to
complex engineering problems and provide knowledge regarding Statistical inferences,
probability theory, random variables, distributions and estimation, emphasizing the link between
Statistics and Engineering. Students are expected to develop a statistical way of thinking and
ability for the successful usage of the statistical concept, theory and notations.

Contents:

Basic Statistics and Set Theory

Statistics, Branches of Statistics, Primary Data,
Secondary data, Grouped & Ungrouped data, Population, Statistic, Set Theory, Universal Set,
Union of Set, Intersection of Sets,
DE Morgan Law, Associative Law, Distributive Law.
Measure of Central Tendency
 Construction of frequency distribution, Arithmetic mean, Median, Mode, Harmonic Mean,
Geometric Mean, applications, Merits, Demerits,
Measure of Dispersion
Distance Measures: Range, Interquartile Range.
Deviation Measures:
1. Absolute Measures: Mean deviation about mean and median, Variance, Properties of
Variance, Application of Variance, Standard Deviation, Properties of standard deviation,
application of Standard deviation.
2. Relative Measures: Coefficients of Mean deviation. Coefficient of Variance.
Moments and Moment Generating Function
Moments about mean, moments about arbitrary value, moment about change of origin and
scale, relationship between raw moment and moment about mean.
Graphical Representation
Bar graph, Histogram, Multiple Bar graph, Pictogram,
Dot plot, Cumulative frequency Polygon, Box and
Whisker Plot.
Probability, Conditional Probability and Bayes Rule
Permutation, Combination, Probability, Experiment,
Random Experiment, Events, Types of Events, Sample
Space, Null space, Mutually Exclusive events,
Exhaustive events, Conditional Probability, Independent Events, Law of Total Probability,
Bayes Rule.
Discrete and Continuous Random Variable and
Probability Distribution Functions
Random Variable, Discrete Random Variable,
Continuous Random Variable, Discrete Probability Distribution, Continuous probability
distribution, Probability Distribution function, application.
Probability Distribution (Uniform, Binomial,
Hypergeometric, Poisson, Normal and Exponential)
Derivation of Probability Distributions, Mean, Median, Mode, Variance, Moment Generating
Function, and their applications.
Examples of Probabilistic Modeling (Regression Model)
Tree Diagram, Monte Carlo Simulation, Markov Chains, Regression Model.
Scatter diagram, Simple and multiple regression line, Estimation of regression coefficient,
Properties of regression line. Central Limit Theorem. Correlations.
Estimation of Parameters and Hypothesis Testing
Point and interval estimates of mean and variance, Hypothesis testing about population mean
and variance.

Reference Books:
*Ronald E. Walpole, Raymond H, Myers and Sharon L. Myers and Keying Ye, Probability and
Statistics for Engineers and Scientists.
*Mc Graw Hill, Principles and Application for Engineering and the Computing Sciences.
*Fundamentals of Probability and Statistics for Engineers, John Wiley and Sons.
*Jay L. Devore, Probability and Statistics for Engineering and Sciences
*H. P. Hsu, Theory and problems of probability, random variables, and random processes.
 3. Course Learning Outcomes
Mapping of CLOs and PLOs

S. No. Course Learning outcomes PLOs Blooms Taxonomy

Illustrate the fundamental concepts of PLO-1 C2

CLO 1
descriptive & inferential statistics.
Analyze the regression, correlation and tools of PLO-2 C4
CLO 2 probability.

Investigate the discrete and continuous PLO-4 C5

CLO 3 probability distributions for goodness of
probabilistic systems.
Course Delivery (Topics Planned)

a. List the topics you planned at the beginning of the course.

Course Lecture Plan

Week Lecture
Date Topics Reference material
No. No.

1 Introduction to Statistics and its importance.

Week
Types of data and its collection techniques,
1 2
Presentation and distribution Text book
3 Types of Graphs
Measures of Central Tendency: Arithmetic mean,
4
Geometric, mean
Week
Measures of Central Tendency: harmonic mean, Text book
2 5
weighted mean,
6 Properties of mean, practice problems.
Measures of Central Tendency: Median, Quartile,
7
Decile & Percentile values and its applications
Week Measures of Central Tendency: Modal values and
8 Text book
3 its applications
graphical determination of measures of central
9
tendency.
10 Related engineering problems Research Paper
Measures of Variation: Absolute and relative
11
Week measures.
4 Measures of Variation: Inter quartile range & Text book
12 Applications of coefficient of variance, related
engineering problems.

13 Moments and determination of shape of distribution Text book

Week
Difference of Symmetrical & Anti-Symmetrical
5 14 Text book
Distribution.
15 Quiz
Kurtosis of data through moments and Measures of
16 Text book
Central Tendency.
Week
Skewness of data through moments and Measures
6 17
of Central Tendency. Text book
18 Setting of conclusions for given data.
Introduction to Probabilistic modeling, Tree
19 diagrams, Monte Carlo simulations and markov
Week
chains.
7 Text book
Detailed study of Linear regression model, linear
20
regression and curve fitting
21 Determination of correlation and rank correlation
22 Multiple Regression Models
Week
23 Multiple and partial correlations Text book
8
24 Coefficient of determination, practice problems
Introduction to probability and its application in
25
Week engineering. Text book
9 26 Types of events, Laws of probability
 27 Conditional Probability & Bayes’ rule.
Counting techniques: Multiplication rule,
28
Permutations
29 Counting techniques: Combinations.
Random variables, Types of random variables,
Week Text book
expected value and Computation of Mean &
10
30 Variance of Random Variable (Continuous &
Discrete)

Computation of Mean & Variance of Discrete

31 Text book
Random Variable
Week Computation of Mean & Variance of Continuous
32 Text book
11 Random Variable
33 Discussion on case studies Research Paper
Discrete Probability Distributions: Binomial
34
Distribution.
Discrete Probability Distributions: Poisson
Week 35 Text book
Distribution.
12
Poisson approximation to Binomial Distribution,
36
Solution of related Engineering problems.
Continuous Probability Distribution: Normal
37
Distribution
Week Continuous Probability Distribution: Exponential Text book
38
13 Distribution
39 Sampling Distribution with & without replacement.
Computation of Mean, Variance & Standard error
40
for Sampling over Mean
Week Estimation of parameters, construction of Text book
41
14 confidence interval
42 Estimating mean by using Z and t-distribution
43 Estimating variance by using χ2 table
44 Quiz
Week Text book
Statistical hypothesis: Types of error, Test
15 45
concerning mean
46 Test concerning variance
Week
47 Goodness of fit test Text book
16
48 Revision

b. Assessment Plan

Assessment tools CLO-1 CLO-2 CLO-3 Total

Assignment 1 05 - - 05
Assignment 2 - 05 - 05
Assignment 3 - - 05 05
Quiz 1 - 05 - 05
Mid Exam 20 10 - 30
Final Exam 10 20 20 50
Total 35 Marks 40 Marks 25 Marks 100
c. Marks Distribution against CLOs

CLO-1 CLO-2 CLO-3 Total

35 Marks 40 Marks 25 Marks 100 Marks

d. Marks Distribution against PLOs

PLO-1 PLO-2
CLO 1 35 Marks -
CLO 2 - 40 Marks
CLO 3 - 25 Marks
Total 35 Marks 65 Marks