Acta Geophysica (2020) 68:1489–1503

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-020-00463-8

RESEARCH ARTICLE - ATMOSPHERIC & SPACE SCIENCES

Assessing the impact of climate change on sugarcane and adaptation

actions in Pakistan
Nageen Farooq1,2 · Shabbir H. Gheewala1,2

Received: 21 November 2019 / Accepted: 18 June 2020 / Published online: 13 August 2020
© Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences & Polish Academy of Sciences 2020

Abstract
Climate change is a challenging global issue for the sustainable production of various crops around the world as change in
climatic patterns can create a stressful environment for plant growth. This study assesses the impact of climate change on
future water demand and sugarcane yield in Pakistan for the baseline (1981–2005) and future timescales (2020s, 2050s and
2080s). For evaluating the crop water requirement and yield under future climate, CROPWAT 8.0 and AquaCrop models
were used, respectively. For the estimation of future climate, three different Regional Climatic Models were applied under
two projection scenarios i.e. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Maximum temperature, precipitation and minimum temperature dis-
played an increasing trend under the projected future climatic conditions. The results revealed a growth in the crop water
requirement with a subsequent escalating irrigation demand caused due to rise in projected temperature; this is because the
projected increase in precipitation under forecasted weather conditions cannot compensate for the increased evaporative
demand. Moreover, the results showed a general increasing trend of sugarcane yield under projected climate. By delaying
the crop calendar, an overall decrease in crop water requirement in the range of 10.7–12.6% and increase in the yield in the
range of 0.37–6.48 ­tha−1 can be observed under both climate change scenarios. Moreover, 90% of control irrigation level
proved beneficial in terms of saving around 10% irrigation water with acceptable yield reduction. The outcomes of the study
are supportive for growers to gain more yield using less amount of water and to adapt to changing climate. The results are
also helpful for policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to improve sugarcane productivity and to address water stress
in Pakistan.

Keywords Water conservation · Impact assessment · Crop modeling · Sugarcane · Adaptation measures · Crop calendar

Introduction in greenhouse gas emissions causes climatic variations such

as temperature and rainfall patterns which can have undesir-
In the twenty-first century, the threat to global food security able impacts on crop yield, water and land resources due to
due to changing climate is considered as a serious challenge the severity of extreme events i.e. floods and droughts (Ali
(Kang et al. 2009; Najafi et al. 2018). The persistent increase et al. 2017). Climate change may increase the vulnerability
of the universal food supply system. According to an esti-
mate, the surface temperature of the globe may escalate by
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this
4.8 °C by the end of this century and there are chances of
article (https​://doi.org/10.1007/s1160​0-020-00463​-8) contains
supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. variation in the precipitation with varying latitude (IPCC
2014a). Arid to semiarid areas are considered to be the most
* Shabbir H. Gheewala overblown zones by climate change. These regions suffer
shabbir_g@jgsee.kmutt.ac.th from a limited amount of rainfall and the probability of
1
The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, floods and droughts may increase due to spatial and chrono-
King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, 126 logical changes in the precipitation patterns (Gheewala et al.
Prachauthit Rd., Bangmod, Tungkru, Bangkok 10140, 2013; Yano et al. 2007). Moreover, future climate does not
Thailand only impact the overall food production but also affects the
2
Center of Excellence On Energy Technology crop growth and water consumption patterns, it also affects
and Environment, PERDO, Ministry of Higher Education, the quantity of freshwater required by the crops to grow well
Science, Research and Innovation, Bangkok, Thailand

13
Vol.:(0123456789)
1490 Acta Geophysica (2020) 68:1489–1503

(Woznicki et al. 2015; Gheewala et al. 2014; Tianwa et al. worldwide. Brazil being the world’s biggest sugarcane pro-
2017). Furthermore, a rising evaporation demand can cause ducer, contributes around 39% of the global sugarcane cul-
water stress due to increased projected temperature and less tivation (Silalertruksa and Gheewala 2018). Pakistan is the
rainfall. Consequently, this pressure may pose a drop in pro- 5th major producer of sugarcane (Khan 2012) and has 6th
duction or needs supplementary irrigation to preserve yields rank to produce sugar (Iqbal and Iqbal 2014). Sugarcane
(Yano et al. 2007). Therefore, it is indispensable to under- is the main cash crop of Pakistan (Azam and Khan 2010)
stand the influences of projected climate on crop production occupying around 5% of the total harvested land and respon-
to develop adaptation and mitigation plans and to reduce the sible for 17% of the total economic productivity added by all
adverse effects of future climate (Akinnagbe and Irohibe crops (Nazir et al. 2013). In Pakistan, cane is planted in the
2014; Shrestha et al. 2018). province of Sindh; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab with
Several climatic models have been developed for weather the leading cane production in Punjab having a regular yield
predictions in the past (Stocker 2016). Mostly, two types around 75 tonnes per hectare (Nazir et al. 2013). The total
of models are implemented to assess the dynamics of the share of Punjab is around 64% of the total cane produced in
atmosphere i.e. General and Regional Climate Models the country. According to the statistics of 2016, the average
(GCMs & RCMs) (Yu 2000; Wang et al. 2004). RCMs annual rainfall in Faisalabad and Rahim Yar Khan is about
have been derived from parent GCMs to produce climatic 430 mm and 111 mm respectively. The total area under sug-
information at the regional scale and produce better results arcane is about 705,000 hectares in Punjab with around 56%
than GCMs as the spatial resolution of RCMs is higher. cane cultivation in the divisions of Faisalabad and Rahim
RCMs contain uncertainties which can be removed by using Yar Khan. The total cane production in Punjab is around
multiple RCMs rather than using a single climatic model 42,000 tonnes with 30% and 29% share of the total produc-
(Wang et al. 2004). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate tion in Rahim Yar Khan and Faisalabad division respectively
Change (IPCC) has developed four emission scenarios in its (Punjab Development Statistics 2016). Sugarcane is consid-
fifth assessment report (AR5) recognized as Representative ered to be an intensive water consuming crop and according
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) viz. RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP to an estimate, it requires around 402 m­ 3 of irrigation water
6.0 and RCP 8.5 (Tan et al. 2017). The four RCPs represent in the country to produce one tonne of sugarcane (Linstead
a variation in the greenhouse gas radiative forcing values et al. 2015). Sugarcane is grown in the plains of the Indus,
from 2.6 to 8.5 W per square meter ­(Wm−2). RCP 2.6 is the largest river in Pakistan which is also an area of severe
the lowest emission scenario, RCP 4.5 and RCP 6 are the water stress (Gerbens-Leenes and Hoekstra 2009).
stabilization scenarios and RCP 8.5 is the highest emission The information regarding agricultural production is
scenario (Nazarenko et al. 2015). The predicted variations necessary to support decision making at all levels due to
in the temperature and precipitation under future climate population growth and stress on land and water resources
could lead fluctuations in the future water accessibility and (FAO 2011). Various crop models used in the past to evalu-
irrigation water requirement (IWR). So, the use of future ate the influence of future climate on crop development and
climatic data with high resolution models (RCMs) could productivity, for example CropSyst, CERES, CROPWAT,
help in improved understanding of the future climatic impact SWAP/WOFOST, DSSAT, AquaCrop, and EPIC (Hunink
on food production and crop water requirement (CWR). Lee and Droogers 2011). The AquaCrop 4.0 model successfully
and Dang (2018a) predicted an increase in sugarcane yield used to assess sugarcane yield fort future change (Lee and
from 1.73 to 8.26% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios Dang 2018a; Bahmani and Eghbalian 2018) and to esti-
for future timescales (2020s, 2055s and 2090s) in the Phu mate the past and future yield trends for the sugarcane crop
Yen province of Vietnam. Similarly, Ruan et al. (2018) found in the Lower Mekong Basin (Hunink et al. 2014). Hence,
a positive impact on sugarcane yield in southern China under AquaCrop is an appropriate decision support tool to evalu-
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for future timescales i.e. 2030s, 2060s ate the future climatic impact on water demand and yield
and 2090s. Siddiqui et al. (2012) predicted a cumulative loss predictions.
of 13.56% and 40.09% in sugarcane yield up to 2030 in Paki- In this study, the base period has been selected as
stan with a respective increase of 1 °C and 2 °C respectively. 1981–2005 and future periods are designated as 2019–2039
Magsi et al. (2018) revealed that sugarcane production in (2020s), 2049–2069 (2050s) and 2079–2099 (2080s). In
Pakistan might be increased by 3493.4 thousand tonnes with Pakistan, no research was performed to evaluate the effect
1 °C increase in temperature; 1 mm increase in the precipita- of climate change on yield and CWR for sugarcane under
tion may bring an increase in its production by 17.22 thou- climate change scenarios. Thus, the central goals of this
sand tonnes. Thus, past studies showed that climate change study are: (1) to predict the effect of climate change on the
had positively affected the sugarcane production worldwide. CWR and yield of sugarcane (2) to suggest adaptations for
Sugarcane is one of the major crops produced in the sustainable sugarcane production under future climate in the
tropical to subtropical regions in around 100 countries province of Punjab in Pakistan.

13