Continuous Internal Evaluation: 40 marks CIVIL ENGINEERING-CE4 Module 3- Analysis of variance CIVIL ENGINEERING-CE4

Micro project/Course based project : 20 marks Analysis of variance. Completely randomized designs and randomized block designs.-
Course based task/Seminar/Quiz : 10 marks Latin square designs -Factorial experiments: Two-factor experiments (overview only)
Test paper, 1 no. : 10 marks
The project shall be done individually. Group projects are not permitted. The project may Module 4- Correlation and regression models
include the implementation of theoretical computation using software packages.
The test papers hall include a minimum 80% of the syllabus. Linear regression and correlation, method of least squares, normal regression analysis,
normal correlation analysis, correlation coefficient- Multiple linear regression, normal
End Semester Examination: 60 marks equations -Principal components (brief overview only)

The end semester examination will be conducted by the University. There will be two parts;
Part A and Part B. Part A contain 5 numerical questions (such questions shall be useful in Module 5-Time Series Models
the testing of knowledge, skills, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis, evaluation
and understanding of the students), with 1 question from each module, having 5 marks for Components of time series. Identifying linear trend: semi averages method and least
each question. Students shall answer all questions. Part B contains 7 questions (such squares method. Smoothing: moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential
questions shall be useful in the testing of overall achievement and maturity of the students smoothing using one smoothing coefficient. Forecasting, measuring forecasting accuracy
in a course, through long answer questions relating to theoretical/practical knowledge,
derivations, problem solving and quantitative evaluation), with minimum one question from
Course Plan
each module of which student shall answer any five. Each question can carry 7 marks. Total
duration of the examination will be 150 minutes. No. of
No Topic
Lectures
Syllabus 1 Introduction to probability distributions
Sample Space and Events, Axioms of Probability, Addition rules,
Module 1- Introduction to probability distributions 1.1 Conditional Probability, Multiplication and Total Probability rules, 1
Sample Space and Events, Axioms of Probability, Addition rules, Conditional Probability, Independence.
Multiplication and Total Probability rules, Independence. Random Variables–discrete and Random Variables–discrete and continuous random variables,
continuous random variables, Probability mass functions and probability density functions. Probability mass functions and probability density functions.
1.2 2
Cumulative distribution functions, Mathematical Expectations, mean and variance. Cumulative distribution functions, Mathematical Expectations,
mean and variance.
Standard discrete distributions-Binomial and Poisson distribution. Standard continuous Standard discrete distributions-Binomial and Poisson distribution.
distributions –Exponential and Normal distribution, Mean and variance (derivation is not Standard continuous distributions –Exponential and Normal
required). Computing probability using the above distributions, Fitting of binomial and 1.3 distribution, Mean and variance (derivation is not required). 5
Poisson distributions. Computing probability using the above distributions, Fitting of
binomial and Poisson distributions.
Module 2- Statistical Inference

Populations and samples. Sampling distribution of the mean(sigma known and unknown), 2 Statistical Inference
Sampling distribution of the variance(sigma known and unknown).Interval estimation:- Populations and samples. Sampling distribution of the 2
Confidence interval for mean and variance.-Tests of hypotheses:-Null hypothesis and mean(sigma known and unknown), Sampling distribution of the
2.1
alternative hypothesis, Type I and Type II errors.-Test of significance of (i) Mean (ii) Mean variance(sigma known and unknown).Interval estimation:-
of two samples (iii)Proportions (iv) Variance (v) Two variance (vi) Paired t-test (vii) Chi- Confidence interval for mean and variance.
square test of goodness of fit (viii) Chi-square test for independence Tests of hypotheses:-Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis, 2
2.2
Type I and Type II errors.
 Test of significance of (i) Mean (ii) Mean of tw CoIVIsLam
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esIN EERI4NG-CE4 Model Question Paper CIVIL ENGINEERING-CE4
(iii)Proportions (iv) Variance (v) Two variance (vi) Paired t-test
2.3 XXXX PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
(vii) Chi-square test of goodness of fit (viii) Chi-square test for
independence
Time: 3 Hrs Max. Marks:60

3 Analysis of variance PART A

Analysis of variance. Completely randomized designs and 4
3.1 (Answer all Questions: Each question carries 5 marks)
randomized block designs.
3.2 Latin square designs 2 1. Explain the concept of mean, median and mode, and its applicability in various
3.3 Factorial experiments: Two-factor experiments (overview only) 2 contexts with suitable examples.
2. Explain Type I and Type II errors with example.
4 Correlation and regression models
3. What are the assumptions involved in Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)?
Linear regression and correlation, method of least squares, normal 4
4.1 regression analysis, normal correlation analysis, correlation 4. Obtain Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient for Stress and Performance.
coefficient
4.2 Multiple linear regression, normal equations 2
4.3 Principal components (brief overview only) 2 Observation 1 2 3 4 5
no.
5 Time Series Models Performance 75 80 85 90 95
Components of time series. Identifying linear trend: semi averages 2
5.1 Stress 80 75 80 60 55
method and least squares method.
Smoothing: moving averages, weighted moving averages, 3
5.2 5. Explain briefly the components of time series.
exponential smoothing using one smoothing coefficient.
5.3 Forecasting, measuring forecasting accuracy 3 PART B
Total hours 40
(Answer any five questions: Each carry 7 marks)
Reference Books 6. The number of products sold by a shop keeper follows Poisson distribution, with a
1. Gupta. S. C. and Kapoor. V. K, Fundamentals of Mathematical Statistics, Sultan Chand mean of 2 per week. (i) Find the Probability that in the next 4 weeks the shop keeper
and Sons, 2020 sells exactly 3 products. (ii) The shop keeper monitors sales in periods of 5 weeks. Find
2. Benjamin, Jack.R and Comell.C, Allin, Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil the probability that in the next 15 of these 5-week period, there are exactly 10 periods in
Engineers, Mc- McGraw-Hill. which more than 5 products are sold.
3. Johnson RA , Miller I, Freund J. Miller and Freund’s Probability and Statistics for
Engineers (9th edition) Pearson. 2018. 7. After conducting series test on ProbabilityandStatistics the following scores were
4. Response Surface Methodology: Process and Product Optimization Using Designed obtained for Batch A and Batch B. Conduct a hypothesis testing for checking the
Experiments, 4th EditionRaymond H. Myers, Douglas C. Montgomery, Christine M. equality of variance in scores of two batchesat a significant level corresponding to a β
Anderson-Cook ISBN: 978-1-118-91601-8 February 2016. error probability of 0.9.
5. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Second Edition, DOUGLAS C. A 35 40 42 30 12 50 45 28 26 30
MONTGOMERY, CHERYL L. JENNINGS, MURAT KULAHCI, John Wiley & Sons, B 20 24 28 26 18 50 50 48 48 09
2015. 8. In order to evaluate safety performance of employees across 3 departments, 5
6. Papoulis A, Pillai SU Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Processes McGraw employees across each department were randomly monitored and their safety behaviour
Hill 2022 on a hundred scale is given below. Do the departments differ in their safety behaviour?
7. Schiller J, Srinivasan RA, Spiegal M Schaum's Outline of Probability and Statistics,
2012 McGraw Hill
8. Ross S Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists Elsevier
6th Edition 2021
 Department 1 2 3 4 CIVIL5ENGINEERING-CE4

A1 68 73 75 65 78

A2 85 85 78 86 79

A3 73 77 72 70 76

9. Develop a Regression Equation between A and Busing Method of Least Square.

Consider B as the dependent variable. Explain the significance of estimated slope.

Observation 1 2 3 4 5
no.
A 75 80 85 90 95
B 80 75 80 60 55

10. Foodgrain production (in lakh tones) is given below. Find the Trend by using 3-yearly
and 4-yearly movingaverage method, tabulate the trend values and predict the
production for the year 2022.

Years Production
2008 40
2009 60
2010 45
2011 85
2012 130
2013 135
2014 150
2015 120
2016 200
11. An evaluation of teaching methods shows the following outcomes.
Method of No of students Average marks Population
Teaching obtained Standard Deviation
Chalk and 32 70 5
Talk Method
PPT and Talk 29 65 8
Method

Conduct hypothesis testing for the mean difference of the teaching methods at a
significant level corresponding to a Type I error probability of 0.01.
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