Research Paper

Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2022) 29:37598–37616
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17671-4
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Does energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization,

and population growth influence carbon emissions in the BRICS?
Evidence from panel models robust to cross‑sectional dependence
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and slope heterogeneity
Hao Chen1 · Evelyn Agba Tackie1 · Isaac Ahakwa1 · Mohammed Musah2 · Andrews Salakpi3 · Morrison Alfred4 ·
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Samuel Atingabili1
Received: 1 October 2021 / Accepted: 17 November 2021 / Published online: 23 January 2022
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021
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Abstract
This paper examined the nexus between economic growth, energy consumption, urbanization, population growth, and carbon
emissions in the BRICS economies from 1990 to 2019. In order to yield valid and reliable outcomes, modern econometric
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techniques that are vigorous to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity were employed. From the findings,
the studied panel was heterogeneous and cross-sectionally dependent. Also, all the series were first differenced stationary
and co-integrated in the long run. The Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group
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(CCEMG) estimators were employed to estimate the elastic effects of the predictors on the explained variable, and from
the output of both estimators, energy consumption worsened environmental quality via high carbon emissions. Also, the
AMG estimator affirmed economic growth to be a significantly positive determinant of carbon emissions. However, both
estimators confirmed urbanization and population growth as trivial predictors of the emissivities of carbon. On the causal
connections amidst the series, there was bidirectional causality between economic growth and carbon emissions, between
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energy consumption and economic growth, between economic growth and population growth, between energy consumption
and urbanization, and between economic growth and urbanization. Lastly, a causation from urbanization to carbon emissions
was unfolded. Policy implications are further discussed.
Keywords Carbon emission · Economic growth · Energy consumption · Urbanization · Population growth · BRICS nations
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Abbreviations UR Urbanization
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EC Energy consumption PP Population

GDP Economic growth CO2 Carbon dioxide
BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
Responsible Editor: Roula Inglesi-Lotz
CCEMG Common Correlated Effects Mean Group
AMG Augmented Mean Group
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* Evelyn Agba Tackie WDI World Development Indicators

tackieevelyna@gmail.com UN United Nations
1 EKC Environmental Kuznets curve
School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang,
People’s Republic of China ARDL Autoregressive distributed lag
2 FMOLS Fully modified ordinary least squares
Department of Accounting, Banking and Finance, Faculty
of IT Business, Ghana Communication Technology DOLS Dynamic ordinary least squares
University, Accra, Ghana ECM Error correction model
3
Department of Management Studies, School of Business MRIO Multi-regional input–output
and Law, University for Development Studies, Tamale, VECM Vector error correction model
Ghana NMVGM Novel multi-variable grey model
4
Department of Accounting Studies Education, 3SLS Three-stage least square method
Akenten Appiah-Menka University of Skills Training OLS Ordinary least square
and Entrepreneurial Development, Kumasi, Ghana
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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2022) 29:37598–37616 37599
CADF Cross-sectionally augmented Dickey–Fuller The BRICS have grown in popularity in the general
CIPS Cross-sectional Im, Pesaran, and Shin media and academics (Zakarya et al. 2015). BRICS nations
VIF Variance inflation factor have important features with other developing nations, such
EU European Union as a big population, an undeveloped economy with fast
development, and a readiness to join the global market (Liu
et al. 2020). The BRICS are undergoing severe economic
transformation and structural upheaval (Xiang et al. 2021).
Introduction In the research conducted by Goldman (2003), the BRICS
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could play an ever more significant role in the international
Global attention has always been drawn to environmental economy in under 40 years than the G6 (US, Japan, Ger-
protection issues. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission prevention many, France, Italy, and the UK), and by 2025 the magnitude
is one of the most effective steps in environmental sustain- of the BRICS economies can represent more than half of
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ability. Since the Industrial Revolution, the combustion of G6. Pao and Tsai (2010) postulated that by the year 2050,
fossil fuels has generated a rapid increase in global CO2 the economic growth of BRICS nations is anticipated to sur-
emissions, leading to global warming (Musah et al. 2021d). pass that of the G6 countries. More specifically, the nominal
With the depletion of resources and the disadvantages of economic growth of the BRICS nations was $18.6 trillion in
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conventional energy usage continuing to emerge, logical and 2018, representing more than 23% of world output (Zhang
efficient energy use has become a vital aspect of a nation’s et al. 2019). Its significance to global economic prosper-
sustainable development (Musah et al. 2021a). Literature ity should not be overlooked. With BRICS nations expe-
has shown that energy use increases as economic activities riencing fast economic expansion, the link amid economic
increase (Hongxing et al. 2021). As a result, the environment growth and environmental degradation is heavily contested.
depletes due to the emissions of CO2 from these economic
activities (Musah et al. 2021c). According to Raghutla and
Chittedi (2020), increased economic growth necessitates A
Furthermore, the economic growth and industrialization
levels of the BRICS nations depend significantly on high
energy consumption industries such as building, mining,
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more output, while energy consuming activities must ful- and manufacturing (Cowan et al. 2014), which leads to a
fill the greatest number of human desires, resulting in more dramatic increase in CO2 emanations in the BRICS nations.
pollution and waste while putting a strain on environmental As stated in World Bank figures in 2014, the BRICS nations’
and natural resources. Greater economic activities neces- annual CO2 releases are as follows starting from the high-
sitate more energy supply; in 2010, emerging economies est to the lowest: China 10,291,926.88 kt (28.48%), India
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consumed 16% more energy than developed economies, 2,238,377.14 kt (6.19%), Russia 1,736,984.56 kt (4.81%),
and emerging economies are expected to consume 88% Brazil 529,808.16 kt (1.47%), and South Africa 489,771.85
more energy than developed economies by 2040 (Paramati kt (1.36%). Collectively, the five countries accounted for
et al. 2016). The World Bank reports that world economic 42.31% of global CO2 emissions. The BRICS nations are
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growth grew from 37.88 trillion US dollars to 84.85 trillion among the largest C O2 emitters in the world (Ganda 2019).
US dollars from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2014, univer- BRICS economies are now situated below the global value
sal energy consumption increased from 1662.93 to 1922.5 chain, with huge environmental costs (Zhang et al. 2019),
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kg per capita equivalent to oil. This increased consumption and sacrificing environmental quality to preserve economic
of energy has generated several environmental problems, advancement is unsustainable (Wang and Zhang 2020). The
according to Musah et al. (2020). The world economy will changes in their energy framework and economic growth
have huge expansion by 2050, as quoted in Mardani et al. level are immense and influential, making them excellent
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(2018). Similarly, worldwide energy demand is expected to samples for empirical research.
grow by 80%, with greenhouse gas emissions estimated to Whereas the connection amid CO2 emissions and energy
spread by 50% during the same period (Li et al. 2021a). The usage has piqued the interest of academics in recent years,
following forecasts are in line with the ones made by Li there seems to be no broad agreement among researchers.
et al. (2021a) and Erdogan et al. (2020), who have argued According to one body of study, energy usage has a detri-
that more economically developing nations are consum- mental influence on CO2 emissions (Ehigiamusoe and Lean
ing a great deal of energy and are causing greater environ- 2019; Mensah et al. 2021; Murshed et al. 2021; Musah
mental damage. Therefore, studies of energy consumption et al. 2021c). They discovered that energy consumption
characteristics of major nations allow us to discover their positively impacts C O2 emissions, implying that as energy
experiences of green development and offer vital lessons consumption increases, so do CO2 emissions. Further-
for energy conservation and reducing of emissions among more, an advanced degree of economic expansion can be
the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) accomplished with larger levels of energy use, which inten-
countries and the globe as a whole. sifies CO2 emissions. However, if the proportion of clean
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37600 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2022) 29:37598–37616
renewable energy in the energy mix is high, increased energy Wang et al. 2013). Li et al. (2021b) contend that popula-
use may not worsen CO2 emissions (Hossain 2011). Sun tion increase does not provide energy efficiency initiatives
et al. (2021) discovered an inverse linkage between energy to reduce the nation’s C O2 emissions. The BRICS nations
use and C O2 emissions, signifying that increasing energy account for roughly 26.656% of the earth’s surface and
use reduces CO2 emissions. Differences in time, place, and 41.53% of the earth’s population, according to UN esti-
variable selection might be the basis of these contradictory mates (2019). High population increase may have positive
results, suggesting an ongoing debate on the relationship and negative economic and environmental repercussions,
between the above factors and the need for more studies. necessitating its inclusion as a predictor of C
O2 emissions.
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Another body of research argued that there is a link amid The current study investigates predictors of C O2 emis-
CO2 emissions and economic development. They proposed sions based on the above highlights. By including covariates
that CO2 emissions surge during the initial phases of eco- such as economic growth, energy consumption, urbaniza-
nomic advancement, but fall after a specific level of eco- tion, population, and CO2 emissions in the BRICS, this
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nomic progress is reached (Arouri et al. 2012; Chen et al. study adds to the body of evidence already available. This
2016; Xu et al. 2020). Furthermore, Musah et al. (2021c) study contributes to the extant literature in the following
assert that economic advancement helped shape people’s ways: First, cross-sectional independence and homogene-
living standards in the countries, allowing them to switch ity assumptions are anticipated to result in erroneous esti-
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their buying habits from low emission products to high mating outcomes if the data panel is heterogeneous and
emission products such as automobiles and air condition- cross-sectionally dependent. As a result, we investigated
ers, among others, thereby increasing the level of emissions whether the panel data utilized in this work is homogenous
in the nations. Nevertheless, in 18 EU member nations, and cross-sectionally independent and found that cross-sec-
Kasperowicz (2015) discovered an inverse relationship amid tional dependency and heterogeneity concerns are present,
economic growth and CO2 secretions. This means that eco-
nomic growth and CO2 secretions go in opposing directions
since a boost in one does not cause a rise in the other. Simi- A
allowing us to employ econometric panel techniques that are
resilient to such difficulties. Second, the econometric tech-
niques employed in this study differ significantly from those
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larly, Ozcan (2013) discovered that CO2 emissions decline employed in prior studies. The study used the Common
when real economic growth per capita rises. The grounds for Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Augmented
incorporating economic growth in this study are the uneven Mean Group (AMG) estimators to explore the elastic effect
impacts of reducing and rising economic growth on CO2 of the explanatory factors on the response variable. They
emissions. were used because of their robustness to sectional depend-
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Urbanization, linked to abiotic deterioration of the ency, slope heterogeneity, and exogenous or endogenous
environment, including air, soil, sea, and forest quality, is regressive agents. Pao and Tsai (2010), Ummalla and Goyari
another driver of CO2 emissions (Li et al. 2021b; Musah (2021), Yıldırım et al. (2019), Ummalla et al. (2019), Aneja
et al. 2021a). Musah et al. (2021a) posited that as the pop- et al. (2017), and among others (see Table 1) also conducted
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ulation goes up, society puts strain on finite resources for their studies in the BRICS countries but did not apply these
existence. Nevertheless, the influence on the climate via robust second-generation econometric techniques. Based
urbanization is conflicting. Mahmood et al. (2020) sug- on the AMG and CCEMG estimators, our study affirmed
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gested that urbanization might limit environmental dete- that energy consumption escalates C O2 emissions, opposing
rioration through resource efficiency and environmental those of Ummalla and Goyari (2021) and Ummalla et al.
quality enhancement. A research carried out showed an (2019), who revealed that energy consumption reduces C O2
adverse correlation between urbanization and environmen- emissions in the BRICS countries. Also, both estimators
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tal degradation (Dadon 2019). The world’s urban popula- confirmed urbanization as an insignificant determinant of
tion is estimated to reach 4.6 billion by 2030 (Mensah CO2 emissions, contradicting that of Raghutla and Chittedi
et al. 2021). As a result, it is normal to anticipate that (2020) and Wang et al. (2016), who affirmed urbanization
urbanized areas would be stimulated by strong economic as a significant predictor of CO2 emanations in the BRICS
trend sources such as construction, production, and trans- countries.
portation, fueled mostly by fossil fuels, resulting in envi- The remainder of the report is organized as follows: The
ronmental deterioration. As a result, incorporating urbani- literature review section investigates the current literature
zation into this study is critical. Another factor influencing that supports the topic under investigation. The materials
CO2 emissions is population increase. Some studies have and methods section explores the techniques used to conduct
demonstrated the influence of population expansion the analysis. The empirical result section accounts for the
on CO 2 emissions. A positive linkage amid population empirical discoveries of this research, while the last section
increase and C O2 emissions have been established by some discusses the results, conclusions, and policy recommenda-
studies (Li et al. 2021b; Mahmood and Chaudhary 2012; tions of the research.
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Table 1 Summary of relevant studies in the BRICS on predictors of carbon emissions

Author(s) Period Method Inference
(Pao and Tsai 2010) 1971–2005 VECM Feedback causality between energy consumption and
CO2 emissions was affirmed
(Liu et al. 2020) 1999–2014 3SLS Complete tri-variate relationships (energy-output-emis-
sion nexus) was established
(Ummalla and Goyari 2021) 1992–2014 FMOLS It was revealed that economic growth escalates CO2
emissions, but clean energy consumption reduces CO2
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emissions
(Meher 2021) 1990–2014 FMOLS and DOLS Electricity consumption and economic growth influence
CO2 emissions
(Raghutla and Chittedi 2020) 1998–2016 FMOLS Urbanization reduces CO2 emissions
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(Kasperowicz 2015) 1995–2012 ECM Economic growth reduces CO2 emissions
(Tian et al. 2020) 1995–2015 MRIO Economic growth was coupled with environmental
emissions
(Cowan et al. 2014) 1990–2010 Granger Causality Mixed results depending on the countries
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(Zakarya et al. 2015) 1990–2012 FMOLS, DOLS, and Granger Causality One-way causality from CO2 emissions to energy con-
sumption and economic growth
(Wang et al. 2016) 1985–2014 Granger Causality Urbanization positively affects CO2 emissions
(Aneja et al. 2017) 1990–2012 Granger Causality Unidirectional relation from economic growth to energy
consumption
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(Banday and Aneja 2020) 1990–2017 Granger Causality One-way causal link from economic growth to CO2
emission was affirmed in China, India, South Africa,
and Brazil. However, no causality was established
amid the two variables in Russia
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(Ummalla et al. 2019) 1990–2016 ARDL and PQR Hydropower energy consumption was negatively con-
nected with CO2 emissions in the lower quartiles, but
the nexus amid the two variables were positive in the
higher quartiles
(Yıldırım et al. 2019) 1990–2014 FMOLS and Granger Causality Double-headed causality amid economic growth and
energy consumption
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(Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2019) 1990–2014 DOLS and FMOLS Electricity consumption escalates CO2 emissions
(Wu et al. 2015) 2004–2011 NMVGM An increase in economic growth reduces CO2 emissions
in Brazil and Russia, but increase in economic growth
increases CO2 emissions in China and South Africa
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FMOLS, fully modified ordinary least squares; DOLS, dynamic ordinary least squares; ECM, error correction model; MRIO, multi-regional
input–output; ARDL, autoregressive distributed lag; VECM, vector error correction model; NMVGM, novel multi-variable grey model; 3SLS,
three-stage least square method
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Literature review connection between the factors. This study is essential but
was solely limited to the usage of energy from biomass. Con-
Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon sequently, the results of this research cannot be widespread
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emission nexus for all energy sources employed in the countries worldwide.
Işık et al. (2019) evaluated the EKC assumption at the devel-
The relationships amid biomass consumption, economic oped national level for ten selected US states with the largest
development, and CO2 secretions in West Africa between CO2 emissions levels. The research used panel estimation
1980 to 2010 were examined by Adewuyi and Awodumi approaches robust to cross-sectional reliance in its investi-
(2017). This connection examined the integration of pol- gation. Only five states, New York, Florida, Michigan, Illi-
lutant production and energy demand function with an nois, and Ohio, were subject to the EKC hypothesis which is
increased indigenous growth model. The three-phase min- inverted U-shaped. Intriguingly, the negative consequences
imum-square (3SLS) regression estimator demonstrated of fossil fuel consumption on the emissions of C O2 in Texas
a highly substantial interaction feedback connection with were not statistically discovered, even though this state is
GDP, biomass energy usage, and CO2 emissions in Nigeria, the country’s largest oil producer. In addition, concerning
Burkina Faso, Mali, Gambia, and Togo. In the other West- the other states, the beneficial impact of renewable energy
ern African countries, there was also a partially significant usage in Florida was significantly low. Although the study
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was carried out in countries with similar economic charac- and this effect also looked cyclical in the USA. While the
teristics, the findings were contradictory. These conflicting study was carried out on the G-7 members, the results were
results show that the discussion on energy growth emissions conflicting. These contrasting results highlighted the way
is endless and justifiable for investigation, in line with our our research was conducted. We explored the connection
study. The effect of banking growth in the country on C O2 amid energy usage, economic growth, and CO2 secretions
emissions has been tested by Samour et al. (2019). Accord- among the BRICS nations.
ing to ARDL estimations, the rise of the banking indus-
try has improved the nation’s energy consumption and has Urbanization, population growth, and carbon
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resulted in higher CO2 emissions. Although this result is emission nexus
significant, it must be interpreted carefully since the research
was limited to the banking sector of Turkey only. The likeli- Abbasi et al. (2020) investigated the nexus amid urbani-
hood that the results could be varied if the other economic zation, energy usage, and CO2 emissions for a group of
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areas have been included in the assessment is high. The eight Asian nations (Bangladesh, China, India, Indo-
results must be taken with care as the study was carried out nesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) from
at the company level. If the survey was carried out at the 1982 to 2017. Panel co-integration and Granger causal-
national level, the findings might not remain the same. Also, ity approaches were used in the analysis. Panel co-inte-
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from 1974 to 2014, Pata and Kahveci (2018) carried out a gration results showed a long-run link amid urbanization
study in Turkey. Economic development was significantly and CO2 emissions. Moreover, the findings showed that
linked to CO2 emissions from the results. However, there urbanization has a positive and considerable effect on C O2
was no association of renewable energy with national CO2 secretions, implying that urban expansion is a barrier to
emissions. This finding is quite insightful, yet it must be long-term environmental quality improvement. These find-
carefully interpreted since the research was confined only
to Turkey. The findings may vary if the investigation con-
siders other nations beyond Turkey. Waheed et al. (2019) A
ings are extremely important to the academic world; yet,
they should be interpreted cautiously since not all Asian
countries were covered in the analysis. There might be
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examined the connection amid GDP, energy usage, and CO2 additional modeling approaches that the research may
emissions in a single nation and multi-nation studies. The have missed out. The results might have been different if
survey focused on country coverage, modeling methodol- alternative modeling approaches and countries had been
ogy, research periods, and empirical findings. The outcome included in the research. From 1970 to 2015, Ali et al.
postulated that C O2 emissions in industrialized nations have (2017a, b) empirically evaluated the effect of urbaniza-
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not been associated in the disclosures with economic devel- tion on CO2 emissions in Singapore. The study employed
opment. Increased energy usage in wealthy nations has also the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) technique to
been identified as a key factor of excessive C O2 emissions. investigate the effect connection between the variables.
These results are very important to the academic commu- The primary result demonstrated that urbanization has
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nity, but they should be regarded with prudence since this an adverse and substantial influence on CO 2 emissions
investigation has not included all advanced countries in the in Singapore, implying that urban growth in Singapore is
world. There may also be alternative models that were not not a barrier to environmental quality enhancement. Thus,
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considered by the studies. If the investigation had been car- in the sample nation, urbanization improves environmen-
ried out using other various modeling methods and nations, tal quality by lowering C O2 emissions. This discovery is
the results could be otherwise. Balcilar et al. (2019) stud- probably important; nevertheless, it should be interpreted
ied the historical links between G7 nations’ C O2 emissions cautiously due to the study’s geographic restriction to Sin-
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and energy consumption. The study employed the historical gapore. The findings may vary if the investigation consid-
estimation technique in its evaluation based on time vari- ers other nations beyond Singapore. Wang et al. (2020)
ations and business cycles. The result required sacrificing conducted research on the connection amid urbanization
economic expansion by Canada, Italy, Japan, and partially and CO2 emissions. Panel data analysis model was utilized
the USA to reduce CO2 pollution by limiting fossil fuel con- to study the link amid urbanization and CO2 emanations
sumption. Since the early 1990s, this condition has been for 166 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2015. The conclusion
invalid in France, for Germany during the analytical time, validated an inverted U-shaped curve amid urbanization
and for the UK with few exclusions. Research findings were and CO2 pollution; large urbanization expansion aids to
also available for Canada, Germany, Japan, UK, and the decrease CO2 secretions. However, despite the importance
USA as proof of opposite to the EKC’s theory. For France of the findings to academic community, the study was lim-
and Italy, the study found N-shaped BC curves. GDP had ited to a narrow time span (2005 to 2015). As a result,
no harmful influence on the environmental quality, while the findings cannot be applied to other nations globally,
the EKC’s hypothesis for Germany and the UK was invalid as the outcomes may alter if more nations or locations
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and historical periods were included. Khan and Su (2021) Methods and material
studied the influence of urbanization on CO2 emanations
in newly industrialized nations from 1991 to 2019. The Data source and descriptive statistics
research explored an ideal level of urbanization at which
newly industrialized nations may cut C O2 emissions. The The research was done with a panel of five countries in
findings indicated that urbanization has a positive impact the BRICS, i.e., India, China, Brazil, Russia, and South
when it is less than the threshold value. In contrast, urbani- Africa. Their geographical area and political and economic
zation has an adverse influence on C O2 emissions when institutions are extremely heterogeneous. Therefore, the
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it exceeds the threshold. These results are very important researchers were able to undertake a thorough analysis of
to the academic community, but they should be regarded the explanatory series because of their variability. All of
with prudence since this investigation has not included all the data was acquired from the World Development Indica-
industrialized countries in the world. There may also be tors (WDI). Table 2 contains additional information about
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alternative models that were not considered by the studies. the series used for the study:
If the investigation had been carried out using other vari- The descriptive statistics of the variables under inves-
ous modeling methods and nations, the results could be tigation are summarized in Table 3. lnGDP had the great-
otherwise. Asumadu-Sarkodie and Owusu (2016) evalu- est average value of 5993.815, followed by lnEC, lnCO2,
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ated the interaction amid C O2 emanations, GDP, energy lnUR, and lnPP with a mean value of 2092.642, 5.783403,
usage, and population increase in Ghana from 1971 to 2.089132, and 1.015292, respectively. The lnCO2 has a
2013. The vector error correction model (VECM) and the range of 23.6893492 with maximum and minimum values
ARDL model were used in the analytical method. Long- of 24.68935 and 0.7090008, correspondingly. lnGDP has
run elasticities indicated that an expansion in population an upper limit value of 12,011.53 and a lower limit value of
would increase CO 2 emissions in Ghana. This study is
essential; however, it was confined to only Ghana, and the
results may differ if all West African nations were studied. A
575.5015, which resulted in a range of 11,436.0285. Also,
lnEC has an upper limit value of 5941.586 and a lower limit
value of 350.0757, which resulted in a range of 5591.5103.
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As a result, the findings of this study cannot be generalized The lnUR has a range of 5.068526 with an upper limit of
to other nations throughout the world. Wu et al. (2021) 4.601685 and a minimum figure of −0.466841. Last, lnPP
used the fixed-effect model of panel econometric regres- has a range of 2.9569143 with an upper limit of 2.49689
sion to empirically study the effects of population flow and and a lower limit of −0.4600243. A variable is uniformly
other associated elements on China’s CO2 emanations from dispersed if it has a skewness of zero and kurtosis of 3,
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2005 to 2018. The findings suggest that China’s population agreeing to Sharma and Bhandari (2013) and Westfall
flow has the potential to lower the rise of CO2 emissions in (2014). The skewed findings presented in Table 3 revealed
the long and short term. Also, regional population aging a negatively skewed dispersion of lnGDP, lnUR, and lnPP,
and improved knowledge structure as a consequence of whereas lnCO2 and lnEC distribution were skewed posi-
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population movement are both advantageous to lowering tively. Furthermore, the tails of the lnCO2 dispersion were
CO2 secretions; however, regional urbanization as a result fatter with positive excess kurtosis (K>3). In contrast, the
of population flow is not substantially associated to the tails of the lnGDP, lnEC, lnUR, and lnPP distribution were
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rise of household miniaturization on C O 2 emanations. narrower with adverse excess kurtosis (K<3). The investiga-
Furthermore, in the northwest area of the Hu Huanyong tors further employed the Jarque–Bera test to determine if
Line (Hu Line), population flow encourages a rise in C O2 the sampled data had the skewness and kurtosis of a normal
emissions, but the converse is true in the southeast area of distribution. Our findings refuted the null assumption that
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the Hu Line. These contradictory results indicate that the the factors were normally distributed.
debate amid urbanization, population increase, and CO2 Table 3 also denotes the correlation between the study
secretions is ongoing and that an investigation of this type variables. From the outcome, there was a positive and
is necessary.
Table 2 Data source and Variables Definition Source Period

variable definition
CO2 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) WDI 1990–2019
GDP GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) WDI 1990–2019
EC Kilograms of oil equivalent per capita WDI 1990–2019
UR Urban population (percentage of total population) WDI 1990–2019
PP Population growth (annual %) WDI 1990–2019
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Table 3 Descriptive statistics Descriptive statistics

and correlational analysis
Statistics lnCO2 lnGDP lnEC lnUR lnPP
Mean 5.783403 5993.815 2092.642 2.089132 1.015292
SD 4.576856 3676.844 1538.524 1.292602 0.7125787
Variance 20.94761 1.35E+07 2367055 1.67082 0.5077684
Min 0.7090008 575.5015 350.0757 −0.466841 −0.4600243
Max 24.39835 12011.53 5941.586 4.601685 2.49689
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Range 23.6893492 11,436.0285 5591.5103 5.068526 2.9569143
Skewness 0.9453828 −0.0783937 0.8214333 −0.4139494 −0.2810174
Kurtosis 4.273076 1.747682 2.498416 2.385361 2.350468
Jacque–Bera 32.470a 9.956a 18.440a 6.645b 4.611c
Correlational analysis
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Variables lnCO2 lnGDP lnEC lnUR lnPP
lnCO2 1.000
lnGDP 0.466 1.000
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(0.000)a
lnEC 0.946 0.600 1.000
(0.000)a (0.000)a
lnUR −0.572 −0.662 −0.746 1.000
(0.000)a (0.000)a (0.000)a
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lnPP −0.547 −0.395 −0.676 0.660 1.000
(0.000)a (0.000)a (0.000)a (0.000)a
a, b, and c denote significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.

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significant correlation amid lnGDP and lnCO2 emissions lnGDP, lnEC, lnUR, and lnPP as the explanatory variables.
at a 1% significant level (r=0.466; p<0.01). This indicates A variable with a VIF of more than 5 (VIF>5) or a degree
that an upsurge in lnGDP leads to a rise in lnCO2 emis- of tolerance less than 0.2 (1/VIF<0.2) was determined to be
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sions, and also, a fall in lnGDP results in a fall in lnCO2 significantly collinear with all other independent variables.
emissions and the other way round. Also, there was a posi- The VIFs of lnGDP, lnEC, lnUR, and lnPP in Table 4 with
tive and material affiliation amid lnEC and lnCO2 emis- their degrees of tolerance (1/VIF) suggested unrelated com-
sions (r=0.946; p=0.01). This infers that a decrease or rise ponents. This indicates that all of the elements are capable
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in lnEC leads to a decrease or rise of BRICS countries’ of being employed in conjunction in this research.
lnCO2 emissions, and the reverse is true. Moreover, there
was an adverse and significant connection amid lnUR and Model formulation
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lnCO2 emissions (r=−0.572; p<0.01). This implies that an

upsurge in lnUR leads to a drop in lnCO2 emissions, and In the present study, carbon dioxide emission ( CO2) is used
likewise, a fall in lnUR accounts for an escalation in l nCO2 as a response variable. In contrast, the vector of explana-
emissions and the other way round. Last, there was also an tory factors includes energy consumption (EC), economic
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adverse and material effect between lnPP and lnCO2 emis- growth (GDP), urbanization (UR), and population (PP). The
sions (r=−0.547; p=0.01). This means that an upsurge in econometric model incorporating the aforestated series was
lnPP leads to a drop in lnCO2 emissions, and likewise, a specified as
decline in lnPP results in an escalation in lnCO2 emissions
and conversely.
The researchers intended to see if the independent vari-
ables were tightly connected or not since multi-collinearity Table 4 Multi-collinearity test Variable VIF 1/VIF
result
might lead to excessive assurance intervals and lower trust-
lnGDP 1.92 0.521335
worthy probability figures, resulting in distorted or mislead-
lnEC 2.79 0.358487
ing implications (Gokmen et al. 2020). Multi-collinearity
lnUR 3.08 0.474351
was found using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) or the
lnPP 2.11 0.325197
degree of tolerance (1/VIF) after conducting the OLS regres-
Mean VIF 2.47
sion with lnCO2 emissions as the response variable and
13
CO2it = 𝛼i + 𝛽1 ECit + 𝛽2 GDPit + 𝛽3 URit + 𝛽4 PPit + 𝜇it (1) H0 ∶ 𝜌ij = 𝜌ji = cor(𝜇it , 𝜇jt ) = 0forj ≠ i (4)
where 𝛽1, 𝛽2 , 𝛽3 , and 𝛽4 are the coefficients of EC, GDP,

UR, and PP, respectively, while 𝜇it is the presumed error
HA ∶ 𝜌ij = 𝜌ji = cor(𝜇it , 𝜇jt ) ≠ 0someforj ≠ i (5)
term with an average of zero and variation of 𝜎 2 . Also, i where 𝜌ij or𝜌ji is the coefficient of correlation derived from
(i = 1, 2, 3..., N) stands for the investigated nations, while t and by the error conditions of the model:
(t = 1, 2, 3..., T) epitomizes the time frame. Finally, 𝜶 i rep-
resents the constant term. In order to minimize heterosce-
∑T
𝜇 , 𝜇jt
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t=1 it
dasticity and data fluctuation issues, all the series in Eq. 𝜌ij = 𝜌ji = ∑T
1∕2 ∑T
(6)
( t=1 𝜇it ) ( t=1 𝜇jt )1∕2
(1) were log-transformed resulting in the following relation:
lnCO2it = 𝛼i + 𝛽1 lnECit + 𝛽2 lnGDPit + 𝛽3 lnURit + 𝛽4 lnPPit + 𝜇it For the test of cross-sectional dependence in hetero-
(2) geneous panels, the Breusch and Pagan (1980) LM test
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where 𝛽1, 𝛽2 , 𝛽3, and 𝛽4 are the coefficients of lnEC, lnGDP, can be applied in a fixed case and as T → ∞. The test is
lnUR, and lnPP, correspondingly. All other items in Eq. (2) calculated by the phrase:
were as defined in Eq. (1). Expectedly, 𝛽1 and 𝛽2 were to ∑n−1 ∑n
𝜌̂2ij (7)
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have positive effects on CO2 emissions. However, 𝛽3 and 𝛽4 LM BP = T
i=1 j=i+1
could either have a positive or a negative influence on the
emanation of CO2. proposed a scaled version of the LM BP test given by
√
1 ∑n−1 ∑n
Econometric approaches CDLM = (TP2ij − 1) (8)
A
n(n − 1) i=1 j=i+1
All data analysis from the time-dependent panel drives Pesaran et al. (2004) show that CDLM is asymptotically
through numerous phases before the desired targets can be distributed as N (0, 1), under the null, with T → ∞ first,
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achieved. As a result, the empirical interpretation of the and then n → ∞.
research followed the following econometric methods. Pesaran (2015) recommended the following CD test
statistic:
Cross‑sectional dependence tests √
2T
(∑N−1 ∑N )
(9)
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CD = 𝜌̂ij
Due to the economic bond amidst BRICS economies, there N(N − 1) i=1 j=i+1
is the possibility that there will be correlations in the panel

understudy. According to Musah et al. (2021a), the negli- ∑T
𝜇̂ , 𝜌̂
gence of cross-sectional dependence could lead to biased 𝜌̂ij = 𝜌̂ji = ∑T
t=1 it jt
(10)
1∕2 ∑T
( t=1 𝜇̂it ) ( t=1 𝜇̂jt )1∕2
A
estimates that could lead to wrong inferences. Therefore, as

a first step, the authors tested for the presence of dependen-
cies or otherwise in the residual terms via the Pesaran (2004) where 𝜌̂ij is the coefficient of correlation. More officially, if
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scaled LM test, Pesaran (2015) CD test, Breusch and Pagan the error term for component i in the period t is 𝜇it , then the
(1980) LM test, and the Friedman (1937) test. First, by assumption of this trial is expressed as
using the Pesaran (2004) scaled LM test, Pesaran (2015) CD H0 ∶ E(𝜇it , 𝜇jt ) = 0, ∀tandi ≠ j. (11)
test, LM test Breusch and Pagan (1980), and the Friedman
(1937) test, investigators verified the existence and absence
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A test grounded on the Spearman ranking coefficient of

of dependencies in the panel. Take the standard model data correlation was suggested by Friedman (1937). The cor-
panel into account: relation coefficient of the Spearman is equal to
yi,t = 𝛼i + 𝛽i,t Xi,t + 𝜇i,t (3)
∑T
t=1
(rit − (T + 1∕2))(rit − (T + 1∕2))
rij = rji = ∑T (12)
where (i = 1, 2, 3..., N) and (t = 1, 2, 3..., T) , 𝛽i,t is a K × 1 ( t=1 (rit − (T + 1∕2))2
transmitter of invariable to be computed; Xi,t signifies a
K × 1 transmitter of input variables; 𝛼i signpost a time- The test of Friedman is carried out based on the average
invariant computation; and 𝜇i,t means the error term, which Spearman correlation:
is presumed to be separately and indistinguishably dispersed. 2 ∑N−1 ∑N
The test of zero sectional dependency assumption compared RAVE = ̂r
j=i+1 ij (13)
N(N − 1) i=1
with the alternate assumption of cross-sectional interconnec-
tion is expressed in the following terms:
13
where ̂rij is the model estimation of the residual grade con- Panel co‑integration tests
nection coefficient. Large RAVE values mean the presence of
non-zero cross-sectional relationships. Friedman stated that Fourth, we checked the existence or nonexistence of co-
FR = [(T − 1) (N − 1)RAVE + 1 ] is distributed asymptoti- integration amidst the series through the Westerlund and
( )
cally with T − 1 degrades of freedom, as N becomes big for Edgerton (2007) co-integration test and the Durbin–Haus-
fixed T. man test. It should be noted that the Durbin–Hausman test
was employed to check the robustness of the Westerlund
Slope heterogeneity test and Edgerton (2007) co-integration test. These tests were
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employed due to their ability to control for residual cross-
Since ignorance of slope heterogeneity might prejudice sectional correlations and slope heterogeneity. The Wester-
regression analysis leading to wrong tests of hypothesis, the lund and Edgerton (2007) test is grounded on the relation
researchers tested for heterogeneity or homogeneity in the
(19)
) ∑pi ∑pi
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ΔY i,t = 𝛿 � dt + 𝛼i yi,t−1 − 𝛽i� 𝐗1,t−1 +
(
𝛼i △ yi,t−j + 𝛾i △ Xi,t−j ei,t
slope coefficients via the Pesaran and Yamagata (2008) test. j=1 −qi
This test can be computed through the relation

There are two bodies in the Westerlund and Edgerton
∑N xi MT xi (2007) test. The collective figures (Ga and Gt) evaluate the
̃
S= (𝛽̂i − 𝛽̃WFE ) (𝛽̂i − 𝛽̃WFE ) (14) co-integration with one component or more. The panel data
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i=1 ̃i2
𝜎
(Pα and Pt) examine the co-integration into all cross-sec-
tional components. This test regarded the error correction
√ N −1 S̃ − K
∼
model calculated as
Δ= N( √ ) (15)
2K
A
1 ∑N ̂
a
∼ Gt = i=1 (20)
In cases where S̃ and Δ are the ∼ statistics for testing, 𝛽i
̂
� �
N SE ̂
ai
is the pooled OLS coefficient, 𝛽 WFE is a pooled weighted
fixed effect estimator, x∼i 2is the matrix of the input series, MT
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1 ∑N ̂a
is the identity matrix, 𝜎 i is the estimate of 𝜎i2 , and K is the Gt = (21)
N i=1 ̂a1 (1)
predictor number. The test version is partially amended in
the following terms:
̂
ai
Pt = (22)
N −1 ̃
S − E(Z̃ iT )
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∼ √ SE(̂ai )
Δadj = N( � )
(16)
Var(Z̃ iT )
Pα = T̂
𝜶 (23)
A
Unit root tests Panel model estimation

At the third stage of the analysis, the integration order of The long-lasting equilibrium connections between the series
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the series was assessed via the cross-sectionally augmented were investigated at stage five of the analysis using Common
Dickey–Fuller (CADF) and cross-sectional Im, Pesaran, Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Augmented
and Shin (CIPS) unit root tests. These tests were engaged Mean Group (AMG) regression estimators. The CCEMG
because they are robust to cross-sectional correlations and estimators are beneficial in the strong cross-sectional reli-
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slope heterogeneity. The CADF relation is expressed as ance and slope heterogeneity (Chudik and Pesaran 2013;
Δyit = ai + bi yi,t−1 + ci yt−1 +
∑p
dij Δyi−j +
∑p
𝛿ij Δyi,i−j + eit (17) Pesaran 2006). Assume that heterogeneous coefficients have
the following equation:
j=0 j=1
where yt−1 and Δyi−j show the cross-sectional requirements

of the lagging aims and the first differences in different Yi,t = αi + βi Xit + 𝛿Yit + 𝜃i Xit + 𝜑i ft + 𝛼it (24)
series, respectively. The CIPS statistics can be determined
In Eq. (24), αi is the heterogeneous loading factor; Xit
as since both tests are related:
and Yit are independent and dependency-dependent vari-
CIPS = N −1
∑N
CADFI (18) ables; βi means each slope of each unit; αi refers to each
I=1
unit’s heterogeneous fixed effects and ̄ a reference to the
where CADF I is the t figures in the CADF. error. Averaging each unit’s pitches is used to calculate the
CCEMG estimator AMG:
13
Fig. 1 Theoretical framework
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IC
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A
ED
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1 ∑N ̂ heterogeneous pitches, the AMG estimator is impartial and

(25)
A
CCEMG = β
N i=1 I effective for various intersections in time-dimensional com-
binations (Bond and Eberhardt 2013).
where 𝛽̂ i is the coefficient of Eq. (25) for the cross-sec-
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tion, and the regression of OLS is being applied. The highly

Causality test
resilient AMG estimator is another way of establishing CDs
(Eberhardt and Bond 2009). The AMG estimator employs
According to Qin et al. (2021), regression outputs fail to
a two-step measurement approach. The first step is to apply
comment on the causal directions amidst series. Therefore,
time to the unknown common factor, as stated in the OLS
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as a final step, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality

equation:
test was engaged to explore the causations between the vari-
∑T ables (Fig. 1). This test was used because it offers consist-
ΔYit = αi + βiΔXit + 𝜑i ft + 𝜌t + 𝜀it (26)
t=1 ent and reliable outcomes in the presence of cross-sectional
dependence and slope heterogeneity. This test is calculated
where ∆ represents the operation differential, and the time
through the expressions
coefficients are ρ. The second step assesses each unit’s slopes
(i.e., βi at Eq. (26)). Mathematically, this is expressed as 1 ∑N
(28)
Hnc
WN,T = W
N i=1 i,T
1 ∑N ∼
CCEMG = β
i=1 I
(27) Hnc
N where WN,T is the mean value of each Wald statistics. The
mean statistics coincide in sequence with the equation
Where βi in Eq. (27) is computed, although the CCEMG
beneath, according to Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) as T
and AMG estimators are strong to CD and provide
and N start to approach infinity, suggesting that the separate
13
residues are autonomously spread over all the CS, and their Table 5 Residual cross-sectional dependence test
covariance is equal to zero: Test method Statistics Probability
√ (
N Breusch–Pegan LM test 34.862 0.0001a
)
Hnc Hnc
ZN,T = WN,T −K d N(0, 1)
2K (29) Pesaran CD test −2.349 0.0190b
→
Pesaran scaled LM test 2.902 0.0037a
N, T → ∞
Friedman test 49.057 0.0000a
where ZN,T
Hnc
are Z-stats, N is the CS number, and K is the opti-
a and b denote significance at 1% and 5% levels, respectively.
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mal lag time. Furthermore, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012)
claim that if T intends to be infinite, each forest status would
be autonomously distributed in the same way as the average Table 6 Pesaran–Yamagata homogeneity test results
forest statistics are equivalent to K, and the variation is equal
Test Value Prob
to 2K. A standardized Z-stat is then computed approximately
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for the average HNC null statistics as follows: Delta tilde 4.485 0.000a
√ � �� Adjusted Delta tilde 5.015 0.000a
Hnc ∑N �
N WN,T − N −1 i=1 E Wi,T
a denotes significance at 1% level
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ZNHnc = � d N(0, 1)
∑N � �
N −1 i=1 Var Wi,T →
N, T → ∞ are resilient to slope heterogeneity were employed for the
(30)
analysis.
The null assertion and alternate assumption are outlined At the third phase, the integration order of the series was
A
as follows for the panel statistics measured: assessed via the CADF and the CIPS unit root tests, which
are resilient to cross-sectional reliance and slope heteroge-
H0 ∶ βi = 0∀i = 1, 2, … , N (31)
neity. From the results illustrated in Table 7, all the series
ED
became stationary after their first difference, collaborating
H1 ∶ βi = 0∀i = 1, 2, … , N1 (32) those of Musah et al. (2021a) and Li et al. (2021a). The
series being integrated of order I(1) signpost, they could be
βi ≠ 0∀i = N1 + 1, N1 + 2, … , N (33) co-integrated in the long run; therefore, the Westerlund and
Edgerton co-integrated test and the Durbin–Hausman test
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displayed in Tables 8 and 9 were conducted to examine the

variables’ co-integration attributes. From the revelations, the
null hypothesis of no co-integration amidst the series was
Empirical results
rejected supporting those of Li et al. (2021b) and Musah
A
et al. (2021f). Centering on this outcome, the researchers

The real analytical process began by evaluating the occur-
proceeded to analyze the long-run relationship between the
rence or lack of cross-sectional reliability in the panel. The
variable via the CCEMG and AMG regression estimators.
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null assumption implies cross-sectional independence within

Based on the findings in Table 10, the long-term bal-
the series, whereas the alternative hypothesis presupposes
anced liaison amid the series was determined by the AMG
cross-sectional dependency. The denial of the null assump-
and CCEMG estimators. Table 11 provides the summary
tion and acceptance of the alternative assertion that there
of both AMG and CCEMG estimators in terms of signs
is a cross-sectional dependency within the data series was
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and significance. From the AMG estimates, lnGDP posi-

necessarily grounded on the findings of the cross-sectional
tively influenced lnCO2 emissions in the BRICS nations
reliance check. In simple terms, there were dependencies in
(β=0.0001926; p<0.05). This denotes that an upsurge or
the panel understudy as shown in Table 5, aligning those of
fall in lnGDP will result in an upsurge or drop in lnCO2
Musah et al. (2021a), Musah et al. (2021b), and Phale et al.
emanations in the countries and the other way around. It was
(2021).
discovered that the lnEC predicted lnCO2 emanations in the
Next, the investigators performed a Pesaran–Yamagata
BRICS nations positively and substantially (β=0.0035163;
homogeneity check to see if the path coefficients were het-
p<0.01). The positive influence of lnEC on lnCO2 emana-
erogeneous or homogeneous. From the results shown in
tions means that an upsurge or decrease of lnEC will account
Table 6, the null assumption of homogeneity in the slope
for an upsurge or decline in lnCO2 emanations and vice
coefficients was denied supporting that of Musah et al.
versa. The significant effect of lnEC on lnCO2 emissions
(2021d). Based on this finding, econometric techniques that
infers that lnEC has a material effect on lnCO2 emissions
in the BRICS nations. Further, it was revealed that lnUR
13
Table 7 CIPS and CADF unit Variable CIPS CADF

test result
Level Decision First diff Decision Level Decision First diff Decision
lnCO2 −1.933 I(0) 4.246a I(1) −2.201 I(0) 3.438a I(1)

lnGDP −0.714 I(0) 2.923b I(1) −1.969 I(0) 2.923b I(1)
lnEC −1.983 I(0) 3.735a I(1) −1.861 I(0) 3.803a I(1)
lnUR −1.588 I(0) 3.379a I(1) −2.707 I(0) 3.146a I(1)
lnPP −2.414 I(0) 2.240a I(1) −1.421 I(0) 4.580a I(1)
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a and b denote significance at 1% and 5% levels, respectively
Table 8 Panel co-integration test results (Westerlund and Edgerton) the BRICS nations and the other way around. The insignifi-
IC
Statistic Value Z-value P value Robust P value
cant effect reveals immaterial effects amid lnPP and lnCO2
emissions. Consequently, at a 1% significance level, Wald
Gt −7.329 −11.007 0.000 0.000a χ2 value is 72.92, suggesting that the series dispersion accu-
Gα −12.241 1.325 0.908 0.220 rately reflects the model. The RMSE value reveals that the
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Pt −44.716 −38.870 0.000 0.000a model has high predictive relevance, which is in line with
Pa −31.528 −4.581 0.000 0.000a the work of Pham (2019).
a denotes significance at 1% level
The CCEMG results in Table 10 reveal that lnGDP had
no substantial impact on lnCO2 emissions in the BRICS
(β=0.0002299; p>0.1). The immaterial influence of lnGDP
A
on lnCO2 emissions infers that an upsurge in lnGDP did not
yield any substantial influence on the lnCO2 emissions of
BRICS nations. Also, lnEC had a substantial positive effect
ED
Table 9 Durbin–Hausman test Statistic Value P value on lnCO2 secretions in the BRICS (β=0.0031094; p<0.01).
DHg 5.567 0.007a The positive influence of lnEC on lnCO2 emissions means
DHp 4.792 0.021b that an upsurge or decrease of lnEC will lead to an upsurge
or fall in lnCO2 emanations, and the reverse is true. The
a and b denote significance at significant impact of lnEC on lnCO2 emissions implies that
CT
1% and 5% levels, respectively

lnEC has a material influence on lnCO2 emanations in the
has a positive and insignificant association with lnCO2 BRICS countries. Further, lnUR had a negative and insignif-
emissions in the BRICS nations (β=1.920611; p>0.1). The icant influence on l nCO2 emissions (β=−0.4398151; p>0.1).
positive influence of lnUR on lnCO2 emanations means that The negative interaction implies that an increase in lnUR
A
an upsurge or decrease of lnUR will result in an upsurge will decrease lnCO2 emanations in the BRICS nations and
or decline in lnCO2 emissions and the other way around. vice versa. The insignificant effect reveals immaterial effects
However, the insignificant influence of lnUR on lnCO2 emis- amid lnUR and lnCO2 emissions. Last, it was revealed that
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sions implies that lnUR has no material influence on BRICS lnPP has a positive and insignificant linkage with lnCO2
nations’ lnCO2 emissions. Also, there was an adverse and emanations in the BRICS nations (β=0.6589383; p>0.1).
insignificant interaction between lnPP and l nCO2 emissions The positive influence of lnPP on lnCO2 emanations means
(β=−0.312332; p>0.1). The negative interaction implies that an upsurge or decrease of lnPP will result in an upsurge
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that an upsurge in lnPP will decrease lnCO2 emissions in or decline in lnCO2 emissions and the other way around.
Table 10 AMG and CCEMG Variables AMG CCEMG

regression result
Coefficient t-stat P value Coefficient t-stat P value
lnGDP 0.0001926 2.41 0.016b 0.0002299 1.34 0.179

lnEC 0.0035163 5.01 0.000a 0.0031094 5.62 0.000a
lnUR 1.920611 0.76 0.447 −0.4398151 −0.31 0.754
lnPP −0.312332 −0.25 0.800 0.6589383 0.68 0.498
Wald χ2 72.92 0.000a 388.94 0.000a
RMSE 0.184 0.122
a and b denote significance at 1% and 5% levels, respectively
13
Table 11 Summary of AMG and CCEMG estimation results fuels, coal, natural gas, etc. These sources of energy increase
Variables AMG CCEMG
the country’s emission rate. In short, a rise in the process-
ing of goods and services is linked with the consumption of
Sign Significance Sign Significance
large quantities of fossil fuels which increases the degree of
lnGDP + √ + × secretions of CO2 in the countries. The finding is congru-
lnEC + √ + √ ent with Ali et al. (2016), Musah et al. (2021e), and Musah
lnUR + × − × et al. (2021b), who found EC as a significant driver of CO2
lnPP − × + × emissions. However, our outcome contradicts Zafar et al.
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(2019), who revealed that EC does not influence C O2 emis-
sions, and Sun et al. (2021) discovered an inverse linkage
However, the insignificant impact of lnPP on lnCO2 emis- between EC and CO2 emissions, signifying that increasing
sions implies that lnPP has no material impact on lnCO2 energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions.
IC
emanations in the BRICS nations. Last, the hypothesized According to both AMG and CCEMG, lnUR had an
lnCO2 model had a strong specification and robust enough immaterial influence on lnCO2 emissions in BRICS nations.
to produce an efficient predictive estimate, as evidenced by The irrelevant outcome of lnUR on lnCO2 indicates that an
the substantial and statistically significant value of Wald upsurge in lnUR has no major influence on BRICS coun-
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χ2 (β=388.94; p<0.01). The RMSE value reveals that the tries’ lnCO2 emissions. This finding shows that people
model has a high predictive relevance. moving to cities, which leads to increased industrialization,
development of companies, and the construction of roads,
bridges, hospitals, and marketplaces, among other things,
Discussion of the results does not influence C O2 emissions. Our finding supported
The AMG and CCEMG estimators determined the long-

term balanced connection between the series. According to A
Hafeez et al. (2019), Ali et al. (2016), and Martínez-Zarzoso
and Maruotti (2011), who discovered UR as an insignificant
driver of C O2 emissions. This study estimate conflicts with
ED
the AMG estimator, lnGDP substantially influenced lnCO2 Islam et al. (2021), Musah et al. (2021e), and Joshua et al.
emanations in the BRICS nations. lnGDP’s significant (2020), who revealed UR as a substantial predictor of C O2
positive influence on lnCO2 emissions suggests that a 1% emissions.
growth in lnGDP will result in lnCO2 emissions increased lnPP has an irrelevant influence on lnCO2 emissions in
by 0.01926%. This study has significant conclusions; higher BRICS countries conferring to AMG and CCEMG assess-
CT
rates of growth can lead to C O2 emissions. However, the ment. This outcome designates that an upsurge or reduction
result differs in the CCEMG estimator, where lnGDP posi- in lnPP rate did not influence l nCO2 emissions in the nations.
tively influenced l nCO2 emanation but was statistically irrel- Our discoveries are supported by Toth and Szigeti (2016)
evant. The result in the AMG estimator indicates that an and Musah et al. (2021d), who discovered no link amid PP
A
upsurge in GDP resulted in an upsurge in performance of and CO2 emissions. The findings disagree with Khan et al.
the principal factors of production in the country, including (2021), Namahoro et al. (2021), and de Souza Mendonca
labor, capital, and land. The operations of these economic et al. (2020), who found PP as a major predictor of C O2
TR
undertakings rely heavily on the use of large volumes of pol- emissions.

lutant energy that increases C
O2 emissions. The findings col- The AMG and CCEMG estimators can only investi-
laborate with past research of Islam et al. (2021), Muham- gate long-run equilibrium relations amid the factors since
mad (2019), and Nosheen et al. (2021) that found GDP as they cannot investigate causal relations between variables.
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a driver of CO2 emissions. The result opposes Sheraz et al. Regarding this constraint, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012)
(2021), Bosah et al. (2021), and Shoaib et al. (2020), who causality test investigated the causal connections amid the
postulated GDP as a material opposing driver of C O2 ema- studied series. Table 12 indicates the test results for the cau-
nations in the long run. sality outcome. Figure 2 illustrates the directions between
lnEC has a material positive impact on l nCO2 emissions; the variables. There are two-way causes between lnGDP
therefore, a unit upsurge in lnEC will escalate lnCO2 emis- and lnCO2, according to the findings. These results posit
sions by 0.3516% and 0.31094%, correspondingly, based on that an upsurge or decline in lnGDP produced an upsurge
AMG and CCEMG estimators. This result is not surprising, or decline in lnCO2 secretions and the other way around.
as most BRICS countries are enclosed with many businesses This study shows that GDP is accountable for the nation’s
that largely rely on high polluting energy sources to promote carbon pollutants. This study outcome is in conjunction
their activities. This conclusion shows that economic activ- with the result from Abban and Hongxing (2021), Musah
ity in BRICS countries, in general, is linked to the use of et al. (2021e), and Mirza and Kanwal (2017), who revealed
huge quantities of unfavorable energy sources, mainly fossil a two-headed link amid GDP and emanations of CO2. The
13
Table 12 Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test results finding contrasted with the finding made by Ali et al. (2017a,
Null hypotheses W-Stat Zbar-tilde P value Conclusion b) and Shahbaz et al. (2016). A causal link from lnCO2 to
lnEC was established. This outcome suggests that the rise
lnCO2 > lnGDP 2.5823 2.0523 0.0401b ↔ or decline in lnCO2 caused an upsurge or decline in lnEC,
lnGDP > lnCO2 9.9076 12.0817 0.0000a however not the other way around. In other words, the EC
lnCO2 > lnEC 3.5892 3.4309 0.0006a → level of the countries depended on C O2 emissions. Our esti-
lnEC > lnCO2 0.7553 −0.4491 0.6533 mates are in agreement with Sun et al. (2018) and Saudi
lnCO2 > lnUR 1.3893 0.4189 0.6753 → (2019); the findings are nonetheless conflicting with Cetin
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lnUR > lnCO2 3.1456 2.8235 0.0048a et al. (2018) and Musah et al. (2021b). A one-way causal
lnCO2 > lnPP 4.0700 4.0892 0.0000a → link has also been revealed from lnUR to lnCO2 emissions.
lnPP > lnCO2 2.2260 1.5645 0.1177 This result means the country’s C O2 emissions depend heav-
LnGDP > lnEC 10.9348 13.4881 0.0000a ↔ ily on how quickly people relocate to metropolitan areas to
lnEC > lnGDP 6.3100 7.1561 0.0000a
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pursue jobs and other livelihoods. Any effort to reduce the
lnGDP > lnUR 9.2624 11.1983 0.0000a ↔ UR pace would drop the country’s CO2 emission rate. This
lnUR > lnGDP 7.2937 8.5029 0.0000a result confirms Mesagan and Nwachukwu (2018) and Lin
lnGDP > lnPP 15.8852 20.2659 0.0000a ↔ and Zhu (2018) but is contrary to Murshed et al. (2021) and
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lnPP > lnGDP 10.4791 12.8642 0.0000a Abban and Hongxing (2021).
lnEC > lnUR 3.8015 3.7215 0.0002a ↔ Moreover, there was a unidirectional causality from
lnUR > lnEC 4.0648 4.0820 0.0000a lnCO2 emissions to lnPP. This means PP growth is not the
lnEC > lnPP 7.6515 8.9928 0.0000a ↔ cause of high CO2 pollutions in BRICS countries, but CO2
lnPP > lnEC 4.9355 5.2742 0.0000a emissions increase the country’s PP rate. This discovery
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lnUR > lnPP 2.8276 2.3882 0.0169b ↔ verifies the findings of Musah et al. (2020), whose analysis
lnPP > lnUR 3.8599 3.8015 0.0001a identified CO2 emission causality to PP. It also contradicts
Shuai et al. (2017), who found that PP is a major driving
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a and b denote significance at 1% and 5% levels, respectively; >
denotes the null hypothesis that one variable does not homogeneously force of CO2 emissions in 125 economies. In addition,
cause another variable; ↔ signifies a bidirectional causality between lnGDP and lnPP have two-way causalities. This finding indi-
variables and ← denotes a one-way causality between variables cates that the two variables are mutually reliant. Economic
undertakings are therefore dependent on the PP rate in the
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Fig. 2 Direction of causalities

between the explained and the
explanatory variables. Note:
↔ signifies a bidirectional
causality between variables and
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← denotes a one-way causality

between variables
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nations, and the PP rate also depends on the degree of eco- not just for the migrants but also for their economies since
nomic activity in the countries. The outcome did not deviate the lawful activities they participate in contribute to over-
from Musah et al. (2020) and York (2007), who established all economic development. Increased PP also necessitates
a double-headed relationship between GDP and PP. The additional developmental activities such as roads, factories,
finding deviates from Musah et al. (2021d), who detected transportation, hospitals, and the spread of power to villages,
no causal link amid the two variables. The study further towns, and cities, among other things, to satisfy the PP’s
established feedback causation amid lnGDP and lnUR. This needs. All of these activities contribute to the growth of the
finding implies that UR has created more jobs by setting economy. The findings back up Musah et al. (2020), who
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up new enterprises, industrialization, establishing schools, revealed a two-headed causal link between PP and UR. The
marketplaces and hospitals, and other social amenities to findings further align with York’s (2007) findings, which
help promote economic growth in the BRICS nations. GDP demonstrated a strong link between PP and UR in 14 EU
also allowed BRICS nations to transform their municipali- nations.
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ties into urban centers. GDP has thus aided the speed-up
of BRICS’s UR process. This outcome is connected with
Musah et al. (2021a), whose research found that UR and Conclusion and policy recommendations
GDP have a feedback connection. However, Musah et al.
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(2021e) detected a one-headed link from GDP to UR. From 1990 through 2019, this study looked at the relation-
Causal feedback was found in this investigation with ship between BRICS countries’ GDP, EC, PP, UR, and
lnGDP and lnEC. This indicates that lnGDP depends on the CO2 emissions. For the analysis, more sophisticated panel
lnEC; in the BRICS nations, lnEC depends on lnGDP. Any estimate approaches were applied to uncover reliable and
fluctuations in lnGDP will therefore have a significant influ- valid results. A preliminary check was performed to see if
ence on lnEC in the nations and conversely. The findings
also suggest that as the BRICS economies grow, they will
be compelled to utilize more energy, enhancing their energy Athe variables could be utilized together. The test revealed
that the study model had no issues with multi-collinearity.
According to the heterogeneity and cross-sectional tests
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competence and economic capability. The findings back up findings, the study’s panels were heterogeneous and cross-
Esen and Bayrak (2017) and Doan and Mckie (2018), who sectionally based. Also, all of the series achieved stationarity
postulated a strong linkage amid GDP and EC. The findings at the first distinction. Furthermore, Westerlund and Edger-
contradict Zerbo (2017) and Ozturk and Acaravci (2010), ton’s panel co-integration test discovered that the covariates
who found no link amid EC and GDP. There was also a feed- under consideration were co-integrated in the long run. The
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back causality between lnEC and lnUR in the countries. The AMG and CCEMG estimators were utilized to evaluate the
findings show that lnEC relies on lnUR and that lnUR relies long-run balanced connection between the series. Accord-
on lnEC (both are mutually exclusive). This research backs ing to the AMG estimator, lnGDP and lnEC substantially
up Shahzad et al.’s (2017) findings in Pakistan, demonstrat- and positively influenced lnCO2 emissions. Furthermore, the
A
ing a crucial relationship between UR and EC. In contrast, AMG estimator showed that lnUR and lnPP are insignificant
Naqvi et al. (2020) and Nosheen et al. (2021) observed EC to predictors of l nCO2 emissions in BRICS nations. According
UR causality. Furthermore, bidirectional causation between to the CCEMG estimate, lnEC forecasted lnCO2 emissions
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lnEC and lnPP was discovered in these countries. The dis- in the BRICS nations positively and significantly. However,
covery specifies that an upsurge or drop in lnEC leads to lnGDP, lnUR, and lnPP did not influence l nCO2 emissions.
an upsurge or decline in lnPP and the other way around. Last, the Dumitrescu–Hurlin test was used to assess the
This means that the transition from traditional agro-based causative linkages in the series, and the outcomes demon-
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undertakings to manufacturing or industrial undertakings, as strated a double-headed causality in the panel among lnGDP
a result of the country’s increased PP, results in an increment and lnCO2, lnGDP and lnEC, lnGDP and lnUR, lnGDP and
in EC, and also a shift from small- and medium-scale pro- lnPP, lnEC and lnUR, lnEC and lnPP, and lnUR and lnPP.
duction to large-scale production results in a significant rise There was one-way causation from lnCO2 emanations to
in EC and subsequent C O2 emissions. This research backs up lnEC in the panel. There was also a one-way link from lnUR
the findings of York (2007) and Liu (2009), which found a to lnCO2 emissions. Finally, one-way causation was estab-
critical relationship between EC and PP. Furthermore, in the lished from lnCO2 emissions to lnPP. The methods used in
BRICS economies, lnPP and lnUR had a bidirectional cau- this study show that the results are accurate in drafting some
sality. This suggests that an upsurge or fall in lnPP caused policy recommendations. As a result, these subsequent sug-
an upsurge or drop in lnUR, and the opposite is true. This gestions were made:
research implies that as PP has increased in most BRICS
countries, more individuals have moved to cities in quest 1. Authorities must establish policies that promote both
of better opportunities. This movement produces results sustainability of the environment and economic growth
13
in their respective nations. This objective can be Despite the difficulties mentioned above, the research was
achieved by modifying energy policy to reduce reliance successful in its objectives.
on non-renewable energy sources such as fossil fuels,
coal, and natural gas while encouraging renewable
energy sources like solar, wind, biogas, biomass, and Author contribution H.C. supervised the study. E.A.T. conceptual-
ized and wrote the final manuscript. I.A. aided in drafting the original
hydropower. These sustainable energy sources will not manuscript. M.M. helped in analysis and discussion. A.S. analyzed
only reduce CO2 emissions but will also help countries the data and aided in discussions. M.A. contributed data. S.A. helped
prosper economically. in editing the final manuscript. All authors read and approved the final
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2. Furthermore, policies that relate to the environment manuscript.
should be adequately planned, structured, and employed
Funding This work is supported by the National Social Science Foun-
following the country’s macroeconomic goals. Once dation of China (NSSFC) (18GLB255).
this is realized, energy conservation programs aimed at
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reducing CO2 emissions will help nations flourish eco- Data availability The datasets used and/or analyzed during the cur-
nomically. rent study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable
3. Because urbanization contributes to CO2 emissions, request.
authorities must strive to create jobs and raising rural
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people’s living conditions. Individuals will move from Declarations
rural to urban zones at a slower rate as a result of this.
Conflict of interest The authors declare no competing interests.
Furthermore, giving social facilities to rural areas will
aid in reducing the rate of urbanization, hence lowering
emissions in the country.
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4. Authorities and other stakeholders should strengthen
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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2022) 29:37598–37616

Does energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization,

EC Energy consumption PP Population

* Evelyn Agba Tackie WDI World Development Indicators

Table 1 Summary of relevant studies in the BRICS on predictors of carbon emissions

Table 2 Data source and Variables Definition Source Period

Table 3 Descriptive statistics Descriptive statistics

a, b, and c denote significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.

­lnCO2 emissions (r=−0.572; p<0.01). This implies that an

where 𝛽1, 𝛽2 , 𝛽3 , and 𝛽4 are the coefficients of EC, GDP,

is the possibility that there will be correlations in the panel

estimates that could lead to wrong inferences. Therefore, as

A test grounded on the Spearman ranking coefficient of

This test can be computed through the relation

Unit root tests Panel model estimation

where yt−1 and Δyi−j show the cross-sectional requirements

Fig. 1 Theoretical framework

1 ∑N ̂ heterogeneous pitches, the AMG estimator is impartial and

tion, and the regression of OLS is being applied. The highly

as a final step, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality

displayed in Tables 8 and 9 were conducted to examine the

et al. (2021f). Centering on this outcome, the researchers

null assumption implies cross-sectional independence within

and significance. From the AMG estimates, lnGDP posi-

Table 7 CIPS and CADF unit Variable CIPS CADF

lnCO2 −1.933 I(0) 4.246a I(1) −2.201 I(0) 3.438a I(1)

1% and 5% levels, respectively

Table 10 AMG and CCEMG Variables AMG CCEMG

lnGDP 0.0001926 2.41 0.016b 0.0002299 1.34 0.179

a and b denote significance at 1% and 5% levels, respectively

The AMG and CCEMG estimators determined the long-

undertakings rely heavily on the use of large volumes of pol- emissions.

Fig. 2 Direction of causalities

← denotes a one-way causality

of Pakistan. Environ Sci Policy 77:166–171

tion, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade open-

sions: evidence from BRICS countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res

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EC Energy consumption PP Population

* Evelyn Agba Tackie WDI World Development Indicators

lnCO2 emissions (r=−0.572; p<0.01). This implies that an