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New Scientist Usa 5 October 2024

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THE MYSTERIOUS ORIGINS

OF SUPERMASSIVE
BLACK HOLES
SHOULD YOU REALLY
WORRY ABOUT
MICROPLASTICS?
THE EFFORT PARADOX:
WHY WE PLACE TOO MUCH
VALUE ON HARD WORK
WEEKLY October 5 -11, 2024

HOW TO REBUILD
DEMOCRACY
Can scientific insights help us create
a fairer, smarter politics?

No3511 US$7.99 CAN$9.99

PLUS OCTOPUSES AND FISH HUNT AS A TEAM /


HOW TO REGAIN YOUR ZEST FOR LIFE /
WORLD’S OLDEST CHEESE / NEW KIND OF CHEMICAL BOND
Science and technology news www.newscientist.com
This week’s issue

On the 40 The mysterious origins


of supermassive black holes
cover
13 Should you really worry
32 How to rebuild about microplastics?
democracy
Can scientific insights 36 The effort paradox:
help us create a fairer, Why we place too much
smarter politics? value on hard work There is just one week
to go until our flagship
science show. Visit our
website to explore the
programme of talks,
11 Octopuses and fish hunt as speakers and experiences
a team 44 How to regain your zest
newscientist.com/nslmag
Vol 264 No 3511 for life 13 World’s oldest cheese
Cover image: Kyle Ellingson 18 New kind of chemical bond

News Features
8 Tantalisingly close 32 The future of politics
Quantum computers that News How digital technologies
solve real problems are near can help us rebuild a true
government for the people
12 An ill wind
Jet stream changes linked 36 Taking it easy
to historical fires and plague Knowing why we avoid effort yet
also seek it out can help reshape
17 Stopping the clock our relationship with exertion
How axolotls hit the pause
button on ageing 40 Cosmic mystery
How did some black holes
get so large, so quickly?

Views
The back pages
20 Comment
We’ve got the “anxious 44 Dear David
generation” all wrong, How to overcome apathy
argues Dean Burnett and regain your lust for life

25 The columnist 45 Puzzles


Annalee Newitz says no Try our crossword, quick quiz
to sexy Asian lady robots and logic puzzle

26 Aperture 46 Almost the last word


A spacecraft returned to Earth How long would tinned food
be edible post-apocalypse?
LONG YUANBIN/XINHUA/ALAMY

28 Culture
Explore the delights of 12 47 Tom Gauld for New Scientist
English natural landscapes A cartoonist’s take on the world

31 Letters 48 Feedback
Could crowdfunding save Making chickens blush and
a threatened observatory? 15 Oil see you later Camellia fruits could make the greenest cooking oil the entropy of tourism

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 1


Elsewhere
on New Scientist

NS Live Newsletter
Tour
Our accidental universe “The energy
Hear Chris Lintott explain how
astronomers stumble across
transition is
their discoveries on 12 October
at New Scientist Live, online or in
here. We’ve
person at London’s ExCeL Centre. just gotta
From the rich diversity of worlds
in our solar system to the edge plug it in”
of the observable universe, he

JANA SCIGELOVA/ALAMY
will reveal why what we know
about the cosmos is usually
the result of happenstance.
newscientist.com/nslmag

Rare frogs Experience Costa Rica’s biodiversity firsthand


Tour
The science of NS Live

NASA, ESA, CSA, STSCI, J. LEE (STSCI), T. WILLIAMS (OXFORD), PHANGS TEAM
biodiversity: Costa Rica
Costa Rica covers just 0.03 per
cent of the planet, but is one of
the most species-dense countries
in the world. Accompanied by
our intrepid local tour leader, you
will delve deep into the science
behind biodiversity, visiting
cloud forests, wetlands, primary
rainforests, volcanic zones and
marine reserves. This 13-day
tour starts on 6 November
and costs £5699.
newscientist.com/tours
Galaxy quest Exploring our cosmos is bound to result in surprises

Podcast
Weekly
The team hear that the Arctic is
Video Newsletter
losing ice at an alarming rate, so Hidden figures Fix the Planet
much so that it is too late to save it
by cutting emissions alone. They
Hundreds of ancient drawings have
been discovered in the Peruvian
Environment reporter James
Dinneen considers how power
Essential guide
also learn that octopuses and fish desert with the help of artificial lines could be refrigerated to From tremendous chains of
have been found hunting together intelligence. Archaeologists have become ultra-efficient, helping galaxies to supermassive black
in packs, in an unexpected linked these creations to the people distribute the gigawatts of clean holes, our universe is a place of
display of cooperation, and of the ancient Nazca culture, who electricity now coming online. grandeur and spectacle. Find out
unpack the health concerns started etching such images, called Surprisingly, the solution may how we are probing the cosmos like
around microplastics. Plus, the geoglyphs, into the ground around come from superconducting never before in this 24th Essential
world’s oldest cheese has been 2000 years ago. The AI calculated technology designed for Guide. Available to download
identified in China – and it dates the probability that each square nuclear fusion power plants. in the New Scientist app or to
back 3500 years. of ground contained a drawing. newscientist.com/ purchase in print from our shop.
newscientist.com/nspod youtube.com/newscientist fix-the-planet shop.newscientist.com

2 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


A note from the editor

New Scientist Live is back


Join us for a mind-blowing weekend of discovery and excitement

PREPARATIONS of medicine – as well as the adrenaline- podcast with hosts Leah Crane and
are now under filled virtual rollercoaster ride. There are Chelsea Whyte, plus culture editor Alison
way for our annual also brand-new experiences, involving Flood hosting a sci-fi showdown that will
festival of science ocean beasts, dinosaurs and more. answer the important question of what
and ideas, New We have some amazing speakers the best science fiction novel of all time is.
Scientist Live, joining us this year, including Alice I am excited to be hosting a stage on
which takes place in Roberts, Turi King, Robin Dunbar and Monday, our dedicated schools’ day, where
London in just one week’s time. our own columnist David Robson. Across we open the doors to the next generation
The show opens on Saturday 12 October the four main stages – Mind and Body, of scientists. The dedicated speaker line-up
for two days packed with talks, hands-on Universe, Our Planet and Future – includes Suzie Imber and Dallas Campbell
activities and demonstrations, with you can hear talks about everything with live demonstrations, as well as
something for everyone regardless from forensics and supermassive black Stefan Gates’s highly explosive show!
of your age or interests. Explore the holes to the secrets of gravity and how As usual, we will have an exclusive
exhibition space, where some of our most to eat for better brain health. area and other perks for subscribers, but
popular interactive exhibits are back this Our Engage Stage will also be bigger and everyone is welcome – and if you can’t
year, including the hospital of the future – better than ever. Here, you can spot some make it in person, you can also join via our
where you can try out surgical robots familiar New Scientist faces, including a live stream. I do hope to see you there. ❚
and virtual reality at the cutting edge live version of our Dead Planets Society Catherine de Lange

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5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 5


News
No more red-eye? Tumour shrinker Changing memories Desperate times Forbidden zone
Daytime flights Cancer targeted by AI tweaks to Cannibalised person Planet found where
are better for precision radioactive photos can alter on doomed Arctic it should have been
the climate p9 ion beam p10 what we recall p11 voyage identified p15 incinerated p19

Zoology

The first of many


epic journeys
We now know how baby green
turtles (Chelonia mydas) swim
upwards through sand after
they hatch. Researchers
attached tiny accelerometer
backpacks (shown below) to
turtles just after they emerged
from eggs in the nest, buried
below 4500 cubic centimetres
of sand, but before they had
dug their way out to reach
the surface (left).
The hatchlings spent 67 per
cent of their time vertical, as if
swimming upwards, moving
through the sand in minute-long
bursts of activity. The journey
took them between one and
four days, and as they neared
the surface, they started to
move only at night, which is
when they emerge (Proceedings
of the Royal Society B, DOI:
10.1098/rspb.2024.1702).
DAVID DOR/UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 7


News
Analysis Quantum error correction

Useful quantum computers are getting closer Google, Microsoft and


others have taken big steps towards error-free devices, hinting that quantum
computers that solve real problems aren’t far away, says Alex Wilkins

DESPITE all the hype around occurs in one, it won’t affect the qubits and computation. The team which spreads out errors over
quantum computers, they are still overall computation. set up different combinations of vibrations in quantum computers.
far too error-prone to be of real use. “Ideally, you want to scale up qubits to make four logical qubits, Instead of qubits, this system uses
But recent experiments show that while at the same time further then performed basic logical “qudits”, which can take more
this may not always be the case, reducing the error rates, improving operations on the system, for values than just 1 and 0 and
boosting the credibility of claims the quality of your qubits,” says example where the value of a are theoretically more powerful.
from companies like Google and IBM Dan Browne at University College qubit is flipped from positive to Meanwhile, researchers at
that we might get useful quantum London. “Trying to do all of those negative. “They have fewer rounds Amazon’s quantum computing
computers as soon as 2029. These things at once is very difficult, but of error correction, so their quantum team demonstrated another kind of
latest experiments represent key memory is stable for less time, but bosonic code called category qubits,
milestones and signal that we are “Suddenly, really useful they can also do some computation which, like Google’s work, could
entering a new age, say researchers. devices seem tantalisingly with it,” says Bondesan. reduce errors as systems get larger.
“Suddenly, really useful close, in a way that they The quantum computer in
devices seem tantalisingly close, never have done before” Microsoft’s study uses a different
in a way that they never have done hardware design to Google’s, Roadblocks ahead
before,” says Jamie Vicary at the what makes me optimistic is this opting for a series of magnetically “The Google and Microsoft
University of Cambridge. Google experiment is an example trapped charged particles instead of approaches are really following more
For much of the past decade, of them doing exactly that.” superconducting pieces of wire. This mainstream qubit-based quantum
quantum computing companies However Google’s work didn’t allows it to utilise an error-correction computing, whereas the introduction
were focused on building ever larger involve performing computations on technique called a tesseract code, of bosonic codes in the Yale and the
machines, steadily increasing the the qubits – instead, the researchers where qubits are arranged in a Amazon experiments are more
number of quantum bits, or qubits, showed that these qubits can act as complex geometry known as novel and exploratory, but also
in their systems. Qubits are units of memory, says Roberto Bondesan at a four-dimensional hypercube. very, very exciting,” says Browne.
quantum information, made using Imperial College London. “In principle, they can host more Seeing error correction work
physical systems like the spin of A separate study published in logical qubits, with fewer physical over so many different designs
an electron or the orientation of September, from researchers at qubits,” says Bondesan. “In this and experiments is a sign that
a photon. But these qubits were Microsoft and quantum computing sense, it’s more efficient.” previous theoretical results could
too prone to errors to reliably run start-up Quantinuum, shows a Other researchers have shown work for real-world systems, says
algorithms of real-world use. combination of error-corrected error correction working in more Browne. “There were lots of nice
Companies now appear to be unusual quantum computers. theoretical ideas about fault-tolerant
shifting their attention towards A display model of Benjamin Brock at Yale University quantum computing and error
building error-free qubits, called IBM’s Q System One and his colleagues tested a form of correction, but none of them had
logical qubits. These are collections quantum computer error correction called bosonic codes, been demonstrated, or [they were
of physical qubits that together can demonstrated] in a very limited way
reduce errors to a good enough level or special case,” says Browne. “That’s
to run such algorithms. “It’s marking really changed a lot in the last couple
a reset in the whole conversation of years. There have been a lot of key
around quantum computing and milestones reached, demonstrating
new benchmarks,” says Vicary. one by one different aspects of
“This is exciting because this fault-tolerant quantum computing.”
is the time when quantum However, the rate of progress
computers start to be useful.” may yet falter and full fault-tolerant
In August, researchers at Google systems might still be a long way off,
published a paper showing that as dashing the hopes raised by Google
you build logical qubits by adding and IBM’s optimistic timetables.
more physical qubits to a computer, “I would be surprised if we see things
the errors won’t snowball and moving at a very consistent rate.
MISHA FRIEDMAN/GETTY IMAGES

become unmanageable – they I think there will be roadblocks,” says


will instead cross a threshold where, Browne. “Each of these platforms is
in principle, they will shrink as the going to expand as far as they can
system gets larger. This works by until they hit the next roadblock. It’s
spreading information across a little bit hard to predict where
a group of qubits, so if an error those roadblocks will be.” ❚

8 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


Environment

Day flights are better for the climate


Aircraft contrails seem to have a net cooling effect in the daytime because they reflect sunlight
Madeleine Cuff

FLYING during the day rather analyse the net warming effect of The team’s conclusions go London. “Flying during the day,
than at night could be a swift way 700,000 contrails from satellite a step further, suggesting that the contrails that you will generate
to limit the climate impact of a imagery covering Europe, North most daytime contrails have a will be less warming.”
holiday because vapour trails Africa and surrounding oceans. net cooling effect. Most of those Switching to day flights
produced by aircraft seem to cool Researchers already knew that seen in the study – 62 per cent – wouldn’t eliminate the climate
the planet during the daytime. contrails that form during the formed at night, which is why impact of flying, says Nicolas
Soot particles emitted night trap heat, but don’t reflect they found that the net effect Bellouin at Sorbonne University in
by jet engines can trigger the any solar radiation, so they have of all contrails is a warming one, France. “It doesn’t mean that the
formation of ice crystals, causing a a warming impact. By comparison, says Ortiz. However, the study only overall impact of your flight will
condensation trail that may last for daytime contrails both trap heat looked at the northern hemisphere be a cooling of climate, of course,
hours. These persistent contrails, and reflect sunlight, giving them in winter, when nights are longer because you have carbon dioxide
as they are known, help to reflect a lower warming impact. (arXiv, doi.org/nj2r). emissions that exert their own
solar radiation back to space, So, is flying during the day warming.” But for flights on the
which has a cooling effect. But Contrails that form in the a better choice for the climate? same route, you are more likely
they also block heat from escaping day can have a cooling Potentially yes, says Edward to minimise the climate impact
from below, causing warming. effect on the planet Gryspeerdt at Imperial College if you fly during the day, he says.
Previous studies have found However, the climate benefit
that, overall, contrails have a also depends on how long the
net warming impact on Earth’s contrails last. The average contrail
climate that is potentially greater lingers for 2.5 to 3.5 hours, but some
than the warming caused by can last 14 hours or more. So a
carbon emissions from jet contrail that forms in the later part
fuel. But the effect of individual of the day and lasts into the night
contrails isn’t as well understood. can have a net warming effect.
So Irene Ortiz at Carlos III A more promising solution
University of Madrid, Spain, might be re-routing jets to avoid
DAN KITWOOD/GETTY IMAGES

and her colleagues set out to leaving persistent contrails. They


determine the net impact of form when a plane passes through
individual contrails over two one- very humid, or supersaturated, air.
week periods in January in 2023 Pilots could steer aircraft above or
and 2024. The team used artificial below supersaturated regions to
intelligence to identify and prevent this happening. ❚

Health

New picture of how Institute in Seattle, Washington. also analysed RNAs in T-cells influence how effectively T-cells
So, Gustafson and her collected from a separate group kill rogue cells and avoid harming
our immune system colleagues have analysed genetic of 234 people, aged 40 to 90. This healthy ones, which could explain
changes as we age molecules called RNAs, some of revealed that a subset of more than why cancer and autoimmune
which encode proteins vital to 100 RNAs increased gradually from conditions such as rheumatoid
A MAP of the immune system has the immune system, in more than age 40 to 65, before plateauing. arthritis become more common as
revealed how cells that are key to 13 million immune cells. These But from age 65 to 90, the we age, says Donald Palmer at the
fighting off infections and certain were collected via blood samples number of a different group of RNAs Royal Veterinary College in London.
medical conditions change with from 49 people aged 25 to 35 rapidly dropped, marking a distinct A better understanding of such
age. This could help improve and 47 people aged 55 to 65. phase of immune system ageing changes could help us develop
vaccines and treatments for The researchers found that the (bioRxiv, doi.org/g35h44). vaccines that are tailored to people
age-related diseases, such as number of copies of RNA molecules These changes probably of different ages, says Palmer.
cancer and rheumatoid arthritis. inside T-cells – immune cells that It could also improve cancer
Our immune system declines with target pathogens and cancer – “Understanding immune therapies for older people who
age, but we lack a detailed picture of differed the most with age. system changes could lead receive genetically engineered
how its cells change across our lives, To explore these changes across to vaccines tailored to T-cells, says Gustafson. ❚
says Claire Gustafson at the Allen a wider age span, the researchers people of different ages” Carissa Wong

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 9


News
Health Earth science

Tumours targeted
by a precision
How ‘river piracy’ may have
radioactive ion beam made Mount Everest even taller
Alex Wilkins James Dinneen

A MORE accurate way to destroy AN ANCIENT act of “river mantle responds by rebounding dramatic increase in the volume
tumours using beams of radioactive piracy” might be partly upwards. This means that of water flowing down the Arun
particles could help target responsible for Mount the erosion process, despite river. This, in turn, would have
hard-to-treat cancers near organs. Everest’s soaring height. removing rock, actually causes given the river a greater capacity
Most radiotherapy uses beams At 8849 metres above sea the land surface to rise. to erode the landscape and
of X-rays to destroy cancerous cells, level, Mount Everest – also called Fox and his colleagues create the Arun gorge, which
but this can damage healthy tissue Chomolungma or Sagarmāthā – focused on the Arun river, which would have affected patterns
in the beam’s path. Newer methods is the world’s highest peak. flows north from Everest, before of elevation in the region and
that use beams of particles, such as Most of this stature is due to circling back to the south and added to Everest’s height.
proton therapy, can deliver most the tectonic uplift that formed The scenario that gave
of their radiation in an extremely
small space deep inside the body.
However, it is hard to precisely
the rest of the Himalayas.
But Everest is an outlier,
jutting above neighbouring
89,000
years ago, erosion by a river
the closest match to today’s
pattern of river elevation
involved a capture event
direct where this peak radiation giants by some 250 metres. may have started lifting Everest about 89,000 years ago.
dose is absorbed, which can still Matthew Fox at University At that point, “the Arun river
risk damaging nearby organs. College London and his passing through the narrow continued to erode backwards
Now, Marco Durante at the colleagues considered how but deep Arun gorge. A long- and stole the upstream
Technical University of Darmstadt the distinctive pattern of rivers standing debate is whether the drainage area”, says Fox.
in Germany and his colleagues flowing around the mountain river took this circuitous route A final nudge may have come
have demonstrated a particle beam, may have contributed to this before the rise of the Himalayas from extreme precipitation
using radioactive carbon ions, that height anomaly by eroding or whether it changed course or a landslide pushing the
can be directed more precisely. away the rock that lies close after the mountains rose. river to change course.
When these ions enter the body, to the flanks of Mount Everest. One possibility is that the river The researchers estimated
they decay and produce positrons, “The thick rocks that make initially drained a relatively how much extra rock would
the antimatter counterpart of up the Himalayas are floating small area, but as the mountains have been eroded by the
electrons. The positrons then collide on the underlying mantle,” says formed there was a “drainage Arun river after such an event.
with nearby electrons, and these Fox. When rivers cut through piracy” event that saw it capture They say it would correspond
annihilate each other and emit the landscape, eroding rock the waters draining from a to a rebound effect that adds
gamma rays, which can be used to and forming a deep gorge, the much larger area. 0.16 to 0.53 millimetres per
locate the exact point at which the The researchers modelled year to Everest’s elevation,
beam is depositing its radiation. Everest (lit by the sunset) scenarios of how such a capture equivalent to a 15 to 50 metre
“You can adjust the position of is the highest mountain event may have played out. If it rise since the capture
the beam and you can make sure above sea level on Earth occurred, it would have led to a (Nature Geoscience, DOI:
that you are not shooting in the 10.1038/s41561-024-01535-w).
wrong position,” says Durante The principle that river
He and his team used a beam erosion can raise elevation is
of radioactive carbon isotopes on well known, says Mike Searle
tumours next to the spinal cords of at the University of Oxford.
32 mice and used a PET scan, which However, he is sceptical that
detects gamma rays, to ensure the these estimates based on
beam was on target. modelling tell the full story.
Mice that received a low dose “The question here is whether
of the beam therapy had slower the river is causing the uplift
tumour growth than mice that or not. To me, it’s not. It’s
didn’t get treated. And in mice that the tectonics,” he says.
received a higher dose, the tumours Sylvain Barbot at the
stopped growing completely, and no University of Southern
damage to their spinal cords was California points out that
detected (arXiv, doi.org/nj6d). tectonic activity may have
TOM GRUNDY/ALAMY

“It’s incredibly exciting,” says triggered the drainage


Richard Amos at University College piracy event itself, making
London, but we don’t yet know it the ultimate source of
if it will work in people. ❚ Everest’s majesty. ❚

10 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


Technology

AI photo tweaks can alter memories


People misremember more details if images are edited to change what really happened
Matthew Sparkes

HUMAN memories can be automatic,” she says. “I think the


distorted by photos and videos worst part here, that we need to
edited by artificial intelligence, be aware or concerned about, is
raising concerns over what might when the user isn’t aware of it.
happen if such manipulation We definitely have to be aware
becomes an automatic feature and work together with these
of smartphones. companies, or have a way to
Samantha Chan at the mitigate these effects. Maybe
MIT MEDIA LAB

Massachusetts Institute of have sort of a structure where


Technology and her colleagues users can still control and say
recruited 200 people, showing ‘I want to remember this as it
them the same collection of was’, or at least have a tag that
24 photos. Then, participants did twice remembered details A pair of images used to says ‘this was a doctored photo’. ”
an unconnected 2-minute task. incorrectly, showing human assess people’s memory, Philip Beaman at the University
After this, the researchers split recall is fallible anyway. the right-hand one altered of Reading, UK, says false
the people into four equal groups But in all three of the other memories could be implanted
and showed them either the groups, the rate of false memories from multiple photos into one, either on a personal level with
original photographs once more, was even higher, with the worst and generative AI models such edited photo albums, or more
AI-edited versions of them, AI- scores being from the group that as OpenAI’s Sora are increasingly widely with images released
generated video created from the saw AI-generated video of AI- capable of animating static in mainstream or social media.
original photos or AI-generated edited photos. These participants images into realistic video. However, in all cases, there is
video created from AI-edited had a false memory rate of around Chan says it is ultimately down a limit to how much memories
versions of the photos. The 40 per cent (arXiv, doi.org/nj2k). to personal choice whether people can be distorted before people
changes made by AI included the Smartphones from Apple, edit their photos and videos, but it question them.
addition or removal of people or Google and Samsung now have is important this choice remains “There is absolutely nothing
objects, altering the ethnicity or AI tools to edit photos, allowing and people are aware of the new here, psychologically,” says
gender of people and swapping users to remove unwanted people repercussions if they do editing. Beaman. “The fact that you can
weather conditions. or objects or combine elements “In the future, it might be implant false memories using
Next, all participants completed edited images is not a surprise.
a memory test that comprised What exacerbates it in this current
24 questions about the original AI needs you time, which is unique I think, is
images. Some 20 per cent of the Hear Verity Harding reveal what past tech revolutions tell us that it’s quick and easy to do the
group who saw the original images about AI’s future on 12 October newscientist.com/nslmag AI. Anybody can do it.” ❚

Marine biology

Octopuses and single day octopus and a number of A day octopus hunting with a
fish were described in the 1990s, blue goatfish, while a blacktip
fish team up
EDUARDO SAMPAIO/SIMON GINGINS

says Eduardo Sampaio at the Max grouper lurks at top centre


to catch prey Planck Institute of Animal Behaviour
in Germany, but it was thought the are looking for a free lunch (Nature
DESPITE generally being solitary fish simply follow the octopus to Ecology & Evolution, doi.org/nj2m).
animals, octopuses work with try to grab any prey that escape. Blue goatfish (Parupeneus
fish to find prey and punch team During dives in the Red Sea, cyclostomus) were the best hunting
members that aren’t helping. Sampaio and his team recorded 13 partners, actively seeking prey and
Day octopuses (Octopus cyanea) group hunts, noting a team effort, leading the octopus to it. Blacktip
are common in the Indo-Pacific including participating fish trying to If a fish that has seen prey hiding groupers (Epinephelus fasciatus)
and hunt by wrapping themselves attract the attention of an octopus. beyond its reach is ignored, it swims were the least likely to find prey.
around objects like rocks, making “Not only are the fish following back and forth to get the octopus’s Octopuses seem to know this and
a bag with the membrane between the octopus around, but the octopus attention, says Sampaio. What’s were seen punching blue goatfish
their tentacles to trap small animals. is definitely following the fish more, the octopus will punch away three times, but blacktips 27 times. ❚
Hunting groups consisting of a around as well,” says Sampaio. lingering fish that aren’t helping but Michael Le Page

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 11


News
Environment

Jet stream linked to fires and plague


The historical impacts on Europe of shifts in these high-level winds have been revealed
by tree ring data, highlighting risks in a warming world, finds Madeleine Cuff
EXTREME weather caused by
the movement of a jet stream
seems to have brought summers
700
Years of jet stream variability
shifting position during summer.
When this jet stream is in a
more northerly position in this
and wet weather is bad for your
grape harvest, we know it’s bad for
diseases, and so now we show that
of fires, failed harvests and revealed by tree ring analysis season, cooler and wetter weather the jet stream controls that kind of
rampant disease across Europe tends to prevail over the British weather over Europe,” says Trouet.
over the past 700 years. That is Isles, while hotter, drier conditions Tim Woollings at the University
the conclusion of an analysis of linger over southern and eastern of Oxford says the study could be
tree ring data, which also provides Europe (Nature, doi.org/njt6). really valuable, particularly as
worrying clues for what the future Historically, this has brought satellite records for jet streams
holds under a changing climate. more wildfires to eastern Europe are relatively short.
Jet streams are bands of and lower agricultural yields, “In terms of the direct
fast-moving winds high in the leading to higher grain prices, measurements of the atmosphere,
atmosphere, which blow around they found. In the British Isles, we can only go back so far,” says
the world from west to east. The “Even under natural by contrast, cold, wet summer Woollings. “That makes it really
northern hemisphere polar jet conditions, the jet conditions probably meant hard to unpick what’s going on,
influences weather conditions stream has an important people spent more time inside because we have such a short
over Europe by dictating where role in creating really and diseases such as plague spread observational record. So having
events such as storms and extreme weather” more easily, leading to higher these studies piece together how
heatwaves strike. levels of mortality. the jet behaved is really valuable.”
Observational records using Conversely, when the polar jet “The challenge for us now
satellite data only began in the stream was in a southerly position is to work out how to use this
past 40 years, and non-satellite at this time of year, wet weather information practically to test
data goes back to the late 1940s, so ruined grape harvests in the and improve our models and
scientists have struggled to piece Balkans and prompted the our predictions,” he adds.
together how the influence of this spread of diseases through
jet stream on European weather much of continental Europe.
has changed over longer periods. Jet streams are strong “We understand the link
Advancing on the poles
To find out, Valerie Trouet at winds that blow far between these societal factors Climate scientists believe jet
the University of Arizona and her above Earth’s surface and weather, we know that cold streams are shifting polewards as
colleagues set out to extend this the climate warms, as increasing
historical record by analysing heat in the tropics pushes the
tree ring data. They used samples storms that help fuel the jets
taken in Scotland, the Alps and further from the equator.
the Balkans to understand A jet stream positioned
the position of the jet during further north than normal over
European summers since 1300. Europe during summer has the
Trouet and her team analysed most extreme impacts, the paper
the wood to identify the weather says, increasing the risk of hotter,
conditions at various times and, drier conditions for most of the
by comparing the samples, the continent. Climate change will
NASA’S SCIENTIFIC VISUALIZATION STUDIO

position of the northern polar jet amplify the impacts of these


stream. “Instead of 60 to 70 years events, says Trouet, increasing,
of jet stream variability, we now for example, the risk of disastrous
have 700 years of jet stream wildfires, the spread of disease
variability, thanks to the tree and food scarcity.
ring data that we used,” she says. “Even under natural conditions,
The researchers then cross- the jet stream has a very
referenced the information important role in creating really
with other historical records extreme weather conditions and
of grape harvests, wildfires, extreme societal conditions. Now
grain prices and mortality rates, Have we been predicting the climate all wrong? if you add anthropogenic climate
to understand the “cascade” Hear David Stainforth argue for a different approach change to that natural variability,
impacts of this jet stream’s on 13 October newscientist.com/nslmag it amplifies the pattern,” she says. ❚

12 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


Analysis Microplastics in the body

How much should we worry about microplastics harming us? Many studies
have found tiny bits of plastic throughout the human body. But whether they are
bad for our health is still to be worked out, says Grace Wade

MICROPLASTICS have been found example, people whose plaques Adding to the challenge is the fact
in parts of the body ranging from our contained microplastics may be that microplastics come in a range
livers to our lungs. They have even exposed to greater amounts of of shapes, sizes and materials, each
shown up in human breast milk. air pollution, which can contain the of which may have distinct health
STEVE GSCHMEISSNER/SPL

Last month, they turned up in the fragments. And air pollution is a effects. Richard Thompson at the
olfactory bulbs of people, a brain known risk factor for heart disease. University of Plymouth, UK, and his
structure crucial for smell. Most of the clues about colleagues have now found that
These small plastic fragments – the potential health harms of more than half of studies assessing
less than 5 millimetres in size – form microplastics come from animal the toxicity of microplastics looked
when larger pieces of plastic, such research. In 2022, Tracey Woodruff at just two types of common plastics:
as those found in car tyres or food Microplastic beads at the University of California, San polystyrene or polyethylene. Most
packaging, are broken down. They found in a cosmetic Francisco, and her colleagues studies also use spherical plastic
then make their way into our bodies facial scrub reviewed data from 24 studies particles even though most
through food, water and the air involving rodents. They found microplastics are irregular shapes
we breathe. Manufacturers also plaques containing microplastics microplastics had detrimental (Science, doi.org/njs9).
add them to certain goods, such were four times as likely to have died effects on the digestive, All of these limitations make it
as exfoliating skincare products. or had a heart attack or stroke than reproductive and respiratory impossible, at least for now, to know
But it isn’t clear what, if any, impact the other people 34 months later. systems of the animals. Woodruff if microplastics are detrimental to
microplastics have on our bodies. So The finding doesn’t prove says this indicates microplastics human health. Yet that doesn’t mean
far, the most compelling evidence microplastics cause heart attacks may raise the risk of conditions we should assume they are harmless,
they can harm our health comes or strokes – it only establishes a like colon cancer or infertility. especially as they accumulate. “We
from a study published earlier this correlation. It is possible other factors However, a 2022 report from know that these particles are going
year, which detected such fragments could underlie the association. For the World Health Organization points to be incredibly difficult to remove,”
in plaques removed from the arteries out that most animal studies use says Thompson. He recommends
of 150 out of 257 adults. These are “Microplastics have concentrations of microplastics we take a precautionary approach:
a buildup of cholesterol, fats and now been found in the much higher than those people are reducing plastic production and
blood cells that can reduce blood olfactory bulbs in the typically exposed to, making it hard preventing them from entering
flow. The people with the artery brains of people” to translate the findings to humans. the environment. ❚

Archaeology

World’s oldest milk, Qiaomei Fu at the Chinese that the milk from each of these
Academy of Sciences in Beijing and animals was kept separate – unlike
cheese found on her colleagues have identified the the mixed cheeses in many Middle
Chinese mummies substance as a kind of kefir cheese. Eastern cheese-making traditions
LI WENYING/XINJIANG CULTURAL RELICS AND ARCHAEOLOGY INSTITUTE

Kefir is a traditional drink made by (Cell, doi.org/njz2). This may have


A MYSTERIOUS white substance fermenting milk using kefir grains, been because goat’s milk is lower
found on Bronze Age mummies in which are pellets of microbial in lactose and so less likely to cause
China is the world’s oldest cheese. cultures, like a sourdough starter. gut problems when consumed.
The food remnants were found Fu says the substance was no longer Fu and her colleagues also
about two decades ago, smeared on immediately recognisable as kefir recovered the DNA of Lactobacillus
the heads and necks of mummies cheese. “Due to their age, these kefiranofaciens bacteria from
found in the Xiaohe cemetery in pale-yellow cheese samples smelled the dairy samples, which they
Xinjiang province. These bodies of nothing and were powdery to compared with the genomes of
date from around 3500 years ago. touch and a little crumbly,” she says. modern strains used to make kefir.
It had been suspected that While there has been The modern strains have evolved
the substance may have had a archaeological evidence from in line with the preferences of
fermented dairy origin, but only pottery of cheese-making from as cheese consumers, says Fu. For
now have molecular tools been long as 7000 years ago, no one has example, strains that cause less of
able to confirm this. Based on ever found such ancient cheese. A mummy from Xiaohe an immune response in the human
the presence of yeast, lactic acid The team spotted goat and cow cemetery in China that had intestine have been selected. ❚
bacteria and proteins from ruminant DNA in the samples, but it appears dairy remains near its neck James Woodford

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 13


News
Archaeology Technology

Hundreds more Nazca drawings AIs get worse on


simple questions
discovered in Peruvian desert as they get bigger
Jeremy Hsu Chris Stokel-Walker

A HUGE number of ancient UNESCO World Heritage Site doi.org/njvg). LARGE language models (LLMs),
drawings depicting decapitated for the Nazca lines. The AI “The AI-based analysis which power AI chatbots, seem to
human heads and domesticated then produced a grid-based of remote sensing data is a get less reliable at answering simple
llamas have been discovered in map that categorised the major step forward, since a questions when they get bigger and
the Peruvian desert with the probability of each grid square complete map of the geoglyphs learn from human feedback.
help of artificial intelligence. containing geoglyphs. of the Nazca region is still not AI developers try to improve LLM
Archaeologists have The researchers still available,” says Karsten Lambers performance in two main ways:
previously linked these spent more than 2600 hours at Leiden University in the scaling up – using more training
creations to the people of the manually inspecting the Netherlands. But he also data and computational power –
Nazca culture, who started highest-probability photos and says that, like humans, this and shaping up, or fine-tuning them
etching such images, called doing field inspections. But they technology is more likely to in response to human feedback.
geoglyphs, into the ground estimate the AI helped speed find the more visible geoglyphs José Hernández-Orallo at the
around 2000 years ago. up the screening process by a than any harder-to-see ones. Polytechnic University of Valencia,
factor of 50 by eliminating Nearly 1000 AI-identified Spain, and his colleagues examined

303
Number of giant desert drawings
98 per cent of low-probability
aerial imagery and providing
probabilities for the remaining
candidates are still awaiting
inspection during future
field surveys, says Sakai.
the performance of LLMs as they
scaled up and shaped up. They
looked at OpenAI’s GPT series of
found with the help of an AI 2 per cent, says team member The AI screening offers chatbots, Meta’s LLaMA AI models
Marcus Freitag at IBM hope for discovering geoglyphs and BLOOM, developed by a group
These geoglyphs are smaller Research in New York. elsewhere in the world, says of researchers called BigScience.
and older than the Nazca lines The researchers followed David Beresford-Jones at The researchers tested the
and other figures that had up on the AI suggestions the University of Cambridge. AIs by posing five types of task:
already been found, which and discovered a total of 303 Speed is crucial because arithmetic problems, solving
portray huge geometric shapes figurative geoglyphs during many geoglyphs “lie on anagrams, geographical questions,
stretching several kilometres or field surveys in 2022 and 2023. the cusp of erasure through scientific challenges and pulling out
wild animals about 90 metres Of these figures, 178 geoglyphs agricultural expansion, urban information from disorganised lists.
long on average. were individually identified development and wind-power They found that scaling up and
The newly discovered by the AI. Another 66 weren’t generation”, he says. ❚ shaping up can make LLMs better
images typically depict directly pinpointed, but the at answering tricky questions,
humanoid figures and researchers found them in A 22-metre-long such as rearranging the anagram
domesticated animals around a group of potential geoglyphs drawing, potentially of “yoiirtsrphaepmdhray” into
9 metres long. Some even hint the AI had highlighted (PNAS, a killer whale with a knife “hyperparathyroidism”. But this isn’t
at human sacrifice, portraying matched by improvement on basic
decapitated heads and killer questions, such as “what do you get
whales armed with blades. when you add together 24427 and
“On some pottery from the 7120”, which the LLMs continue to
Nazca period, there are scenes get wrong (Nature, doi.org/njtf).
depicting orcas with knives While their performance on
cutting off human heads,” difficult questions got better,
says Masato Sakai at Yamagata the likelihood that an AI system
University in Japan. “So we can would avoid answering any one
position orcas as beings that question – because it couldn’t –
carry out human sacrifice.” dropped. As a result, the likelihood
Sakai and his colleagues of an incorrect answer rose.
found the smaller geoglyphs The results highlight the dangers
MASATO SAKAI

by training an AI model to of presenting AIs as omniscient,


look for them in aerial photos. says Hernández-Orallo. “We have
The high-resolution photos an overreliance on these systems,”
covered an area about 10 times he says. “We rely on and we trust
as large as Manhattan, which them more than we should.”
encompassed the desert plateau How our biology shaped world history OpenAI, Meta and BigScience
called the Nazca Pampa and its See Lewis Dartnell chart the course humanity has didn’t respond to a request for
surroundings. It included the taken on 13 October newscientist.com/nslmag comment on the study. ❚

14 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


Environment

The greenest cooking oil?


Growing camellia plants for cooking oil could boost production and reduce environmental impacts
Michael Le Page

REPLACING some vegetable oil formation of harmful chemicals


crops with camellia plants could called polyaromatic hydrocarbons
boost cooking oil production while and aldehydes during cooking.
cutting greenhouse gas emissions, If camellia replaced other oil
water use and pesticide use. crops on 11 per cent of the land
That is because camellia is where those crops are currently
a high-yielding shrub that can grown, the same amount of
thrive in places where some other vegetable oil could be produced
LONG YUANBIN/IMAGO/ALAMY

oil crops struggle. The properties while reducing greenhouse gas


of camellia oil, also known as tea emissions by 14 per cent, water use
seed oil, suggest it could also be by 5 per cent, land use by 7 per cent
one of the healthier oils, but it and pesticide use by 9 per cent in
is currently little-known and a conservative scenario, say the
hardly used outside China. researchers (bioRxiv, doi.org/njtn).
About a third of the world’s These figures would be
farmland is used to grow vegetable People drying camellia advantages, says Wanger. It can contingent on how camellia is
oils. This area is expanding, fruits in Songtao in yield up to 2.8 tonnes of oil per grown, says Wanger. “The benefits
contributing to deforestation, Guizhou province, China hectare, for instance, second only depend strongly on where it is
global warming and wildlife loss. to palm oil. It can also thrive in planted and to replace what.”
“It is a shocking figure,” says carbon dioxide per year, mainly comparatively poor soil and Government action would
Thomas Wanger at Westlake from the use of fertilisers and on steep slopes, he says. probably be needed to encourage
University in Hangzhou, China. deforestation. For comparison, Camellia oil also has desirable a camellia oil market, says Wanger.
He and his colleagues have total CO2 emissions from the properties. Like olive oil, it consists “The price currently is very high,
looked at the six main vegetable burning of fossil fuels were mostly of oleic acid. Oils high in and so I think the consumer
oil crops – soya, palm, rapeseed, around 37 gigatonnes in 2023. this acid appear to reduce the risk might be a bit reluctant.”
sunflower, peanut and olive – and Next, the team explored how of heart disease when consumed “The commercial reality is
estimated their impact in terms the environmental impact would in place of other oils and fats. It also that new oil crops won’t achieve
of greenhouse gas emissions, change if some of these crops were has a higher smoke point than a large market share unless
water use, land use and pesticides. replaced with Camellia oleifera, a most other oils, meaning it can production can compete
They say the production of oil relative of the tea plant (Camellia reach higher temperatures before in the market,” says Chris
from these six crops produces the sinensis). Compared with other starting to burn. This, along with Malins at alternative fuels
equivalent of 1.2 gigatonnes of oil crops, C. oleifera has several its composition, should reduce the consultancy Cerulogy. ❚

Archaeology

Cannibalised person through the Arctic with 129 men James Fitzjames, Science: Reports, doi.org/njtd).
aboard the ships HMS Terror captain of HMS Previous research had revealed
on doomed Franklin and HMS Erebus. But in 1848, Erebus, in 1845 cut marks on many of the
expedition identified Fitzjames, captain of HMS Erebus, recovered remains, with one
left a report in a stone cairn lower jawbone – now revealed
CC-BY-SA-4.0

HUMAN remains recovered recording how the survivors had as belonging to Fitzjames –
from the British Royal Navy’s decided to abandon the ships. having multiple such marks.
doomed Franklin expedition Later, the unidentified skeletal This indicates that some of the
have been identified as those remains of many sailors were last survivors who were trekking
of James Fitzjames using DNA discovered in various locations profiles from a tooth that was found overland resorted to eating parts
and genealogical evidence. He has across the Canadian Arctic. on Canada’s King William Island of Fitzjames’s body and those of
also been confirmed as the first Now, researchers have put a with cheek swabs taken from several other sailors. The finding
known person to be cannibalised name to some of those remains. one of Fitzjames’s descendants. “reveals the desperation of the
among the expedition members. Douglas Stenton at the University The discovery also makes Franklin sailors”, says Treena
In 1845, an expedition led of Waterloo in Canada and his Fitzjames the first cannibalised Swanston at MacEwan
by John Franklin set out to find colleagues identified Fitzjames person on the expedition to be University in Canada. ❚
a navigable North-West Passage by comparing the Y chromosome identified (Journal of Archaeological Jeremy Hsu

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 15


News
Technology

How smart devices can learn your habits


Smart TVs and voice assistants can track your behaviour and habits at home
in their own ways – and it isn’t always easy to opt out, finds Jeremy Hsu
THE world’s most popular smart content from an HDMI-connected accurately labelled these personas.
TV models, and voice assistants device (arXiv, doi.org/njzg). Amazon’s Alexa achieved
like Amazon’s Alexa and Google The researchers also discovered 100 per cent accuracy. It labels
Assistant, really are tracking your country-specific differences consumer personas based

ANTHONY BROWN/ALAMY
activities when you least expect when users streamed the free on shopping and purchasing
it – and they are learning from ad-supported TV channels commands, but general questions
your habits and interests provided by Samsung or LG don’t result in profiling, says co-
to do targeted advertising. platforms. Data was uploaded author Tina Khezresmaeilzadeh
Smart TV manufacturers when the TV was operating in at the University of Southern
use frequent screenshots the US, but not the UK. California in Los Angeles.
and audio clips in their automatic LG and Samsung documentation To profile you, smart “Similar to other Amazon
content recognition systems, described such content tracking speakers and TVs can services, we may use customers’
designed to track viewed content as an opt-in choice during the collate information interactions with Alexa to provide
for advertising purposes. Samsung TV setup process. Customers about what you like more relevant ads,” says an
TVs can take screenshots every can later opt out, but this requires Amazon representative. They also
500 milliseconds and LG TVs them to change multiple “I don’t know that consumers say customers can choose whether
upload 10-millisecond audio options in the TV settings. have the intuition that when you’re to receive interest-based ads
samples from viewed content. “This is the sort of privacy- talking out loud, that also could by changing a single setting.
But researchers have now shown intrusive technology that should potentially be used to profile you By comparison, Google
that this tracking by smart TVs require people to opt in to sharing and then target you with ads,” says Assistant delivered imperfect
occurs even when they are being their data with clear language David Choffnes at Northeastern profiling. For example, it applied
used as external displays for a explaining exactly what they’re University in Massachusetts. the “married” label with 70 per
laptop or video game console. agreeing to,” says Thorin Klosowski Choffnes and his colleagues cent accuracy and identified users
“When a user connects their at the Electronic Frontier tested the three popular voice as having an advanced degree
laptop via HDMI just to browse Foundation, a digital privacy assistants on more than with 50 per cent accuracy. It also
stuff on their laptop on a bigger non-profit based in California. 24,000 voice queries and text- assigned initial profile labels
screen by using the TV as a ‘dumb’ based web searches to simulate for new user accounts prior to
display, they are unsuspecting a variety of people, such as a any voice interactions, says co-
of their activity being Listening in “fashion persona” or “books author Elaine Zhu at Northeastern
screenshotted,” says Yash Vekaria Smart TVs aren’t alone in tracking and magazines persona” for University. A Google spokesperson
at the University of California, people’s activities. By simulating Alexa users. They then used data said users can select categories
Davis. An LG spokesperson said fake people while interacting with disclosure requests to find out used to show ads or turn off
the firm’s system relies only on popular smart voice assistants, whether the voice assistants had personalised ads.
“audio watermark technology” such as Amazon’s Alexa, Google Only Apple’s Siri didn’t appear
and Samsung didn’t respond to Assistant and Apple’s Siri, “This is the sort of privacy- to profile users based on voice
a request for comment. researchers have uncovered intrusive technology that interactions (arXiv, doi.org/njzh).
Vekaria and his colleagues how each system learns should require people to An Apple representative says: “We
connected smart TVs from users’ personal preferences. opt in to sharing their data” clearly state on our website and
Samsung and LG to their own privacy pages that ‘Siri Data is not
computer server that acted as used to build a marketing profile,
a middleman to track network and is never sold to anyone.’ ”
activity that could indicate Some firms are upgrading their
what visual snapshots or audio voice assistants with generative
data the TVs were uploading. AI to improve their understanding
They found that the smart of human language. “If voice
TVs didn’t appear to upload any assistants improve, I’d guess
tracking data when streaming more people will use them more
SHUTTERSTOCK/MEDIA_PHOTOS

from Netflix or other third-party often, possibly for more personal


apps, mirroring YouTube content questions,” says Klosowski. “And
from a separate device or when as those lines between our devices
sitting idle. But the smart TVs blur even more, it’s ripe for user
did upload data when showing confusion about what data is
broadcasts from the TV antenna or kept private and what isn’t.” ❚

16 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


Zoology

Axolotls seem to pause their


biological clocks and stop ageing
Claire Ainsworth

EVER wished you could hit Axolotls apparently


the pause button on ageing? age very little and
At least one creature may do can regrow lost limbs
just that. Axolotls appear able
to halt one of the hallmarks in which cells acquire their
of the process, a finding that specialised functions during
could shed new light on development. Artificially undoing
ageing and regeneration. cell specialisation, a process called
Axolotls (Ambystoma reprogramming, “rejuvenates”
SHUTTERSTOCK/ARUNEE RODLOY

mexicanum) belong to the cells, resetting their epigenetic


salamander group of amphibians, clocks and wiping their memory.
which have astonishing powers When axolotls regenerate
of regeneration, such as regrowing an amputated limb, their cells
amputated limbs. They also also undo cell specialisation,
seem to age very little, a feature but only part way. “They retain
called negligible senescence. a very strong identity of what
But we know little about In mammals and frogs, lifespan (bioRxiv, doi.org/njs6). they were, where they are and
how axolotls achieve negligible the pattern of marks across Thereafter, the clock stopped: they know what parts of the
senescence, if they truly do. the genome changes over time, the animals’ methylation patterns limb are missing,” says Yun.
Even their cause of death is and scientists have made statistical appeared to remain stable. “This is When the researchers looked
generally a mystery. “Basically, models, called epigenetic clocks, remarkable as it suggests that, at at the methylation patterns
no one in the field knows what that correlate these changing least at epigenetic levels, axolotls in regenerated axolotl limbs,
axolotls die of,” says Maximina patterns with chronological age. may indeed exhibit negligible they found that these were
Yun at Dresden University But the team could only build senescence,” says Yun. epigenetically younger than the
of Technology in Germany. an epigenetic clock for the first How epigenetic changes rest of the animal. “It’s an example
To find out more, Yun and four years of the axolotl’s lives, contribute to ageing isn’t clear, of natural rejuvenation,” says Yun.
her colleagues studied a hallmark about a third of their average but they are linked to the way This raises the possibility that
of ageing called DNA methylation. animals that can regenerate
This is a factor influencing throughout life retain some
epigenetics, or how genes are Why do we die? kind of developmental flexibility
switched on or off, and it involves See Venki Ramakrishnan transform our understanding that counteracts at least some
chemical markers on DNA. of ageing on 12 October newscientist.com/nslmag ageing processes, says Yun. ❚

Extraterrestrial life

Hunt for alien Three of the planets orbit in the Array in California, which might have could have been communicating
star’s habitable zone, where liquid resulted in such a leakage (arXiv, using weaker instruments, or
transmissions water can exist, and they might doi.org/njsz). “Ultimately, we didn’t when the team wasn’t looking,
draws a blank be good locations to look for life. detect any signals,” says Tusay. meaning that interplanetary
Their tight orbits mean these The team’s search would communications in the TRAPPIST-1
A SEARCH for aliens communicating planets often cross over each other have been sensitive to a radio system can’t be completely ruled
between planets in one of the when we look at the system. Nick signal at least as powerful as out. “Maybe we just didn’t observe
most promising systems to look Tusay at the Pennsylvania State those transmitted by the Arecibo at the right time,” says Tusay.
for life has come up empty. University and his colleagues used Observatory in Puerto Rico, which Tusay says there are 60 to
Discovered in 2017, TRAPPIST-1 this to look for radio signals that was the world’s largest radio 70 other systems in our vicinity
is a system of seven Earth-sized might leak in our direction when telescope before it collapsed in that could also be good targets for
planets orbiting a red dwarf star two of the planets talked to each 2020. However, it is possible aliens similar searches, but none quite
much dimmer than our sun, about other, supposing any intelligent as promising as this. “TRAPPIST-1
40 light years away. The planets alien civilisations were present. “It is possible aliens is just so good,” he says. “Seven
all orbit closer than Mercury does In total, the team observed seven could have been planets that are nearly perfectly
to our sun and pass in front of events in 2022, lasting 28 hours communicating when aligned is very rare.” ❚
their star from our point of view. in total, using the Allen Telescope the team wasn’t looking” Jonathan O’Callaghan

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 17


News
Chemistry Archaeology

New chemical
bond between
Forests became less diverse when
atoms created ancient people started herding pigs
Karmela Padavic-Callaghan Christa Lesté-Lasserre

IT IS rare for chemists to make ANCIENT DNA unearthed in the mountainous Bohemian of the DNA wasn’t good enough
a new kind of chemical bond, but from a European rock shelter Forest, in the Czech Republic. to tell if they were wild or
they have just done it. A covalent suggests that local herders There is evidence the area domesticated.
bond that relies on a single electron tended goats and sheep more sheltered animals and herders From 6000 years ago, DNA
has been created almost a century than 5000 years ago, but had from wind, rain and sun over indicates that domesticated
after it was first proposed. switched to primarily pigs several millennia. Previous goats were in the area. Over
All known covalent bonds, where 2000 years later – right about research teams have already time, sheep became more
atoms connect by sharing electrons, when the surrounding forests extracted well-preserved fossils common, with cows sometimes
contain two, four, six or eight became much less biodiverse. from the shelter’s sediment accompanying them. Little by
electrons, but in 1931, chemist The findings hint that little, starting 4000 years ago,
Linus Pauling theorised a covalent
bond with a single electron shared
between two atoms. To finally
keeping pigs – which root the
ground and are less picky eaters
than goats and sheep – might
1000 BC
By this time, forest diversity had
pigs also became part of the mix
(Current Biology, doi.org/njn6).
By the late Bronze Age,
create this, Takuya Shimajiri at the have played a role in how dropped as pig herding increased 1000 years later, the most
University of Tokyo, Japan, and his modern forests took shape. predominant domestic animal
colleagues used a chemical reaction Archaeologists already knew layers, which represent the at the shelter was the pig.
to remove an electron from an that people in central Europe past 11,000 years. Walls and his Although the DNA can’t clearly
existing two-electron covalent bond started grazing animals in colleagues analysed more than distinguish domestic pigs from
between two carbon atoms. They forests about 6000 years ago. 400 million DNA sequences wild boar, since they were so
Studies analysing pollen have that they found in 10 layers of closely related at the time, what
A representation shown that within the following sediment. Some of the DNA matters is that the animals
of the bonds that two millennia, forests had came directly from plants and appeared to be herded in
can form between shifted from being very diverse animals, and some from faeces. enclosed areas, says Zampirolo.
MARK GARLICK/SPL/ALAMY

carbon atoms to having a low mix of plant The researchers found that That timing corresponds with
species. While it has been the deepest, oldest sediments a shift in woody plant DNA, the
suspected that this agricultural contained no animal DNA. But researchers say. Starting about
practice influenced the starting 7000 years ago, they 4000 years ago, beech and
biodiversity loss, evidence saw DNA from goats, says team spruce – which have less
for the idea was lacking. member Giulia Zampirolo at nutritional value for animals –
used a large hydrocarbon that has Now, Matthew Walls at the the University of Copenhagen, became predominant. Two
very long bonds between its carbon University of Calgary in Canada Denmark. However, the quality millennia before that, the forest
atoms, which means it would be and his colleagues have taken was far more diverse and
energetically costly for an electron samples from up to 2.5 metres The eating habits of contained primarily hazel,
from elsewhere in the molecule to under the ground beneath a domestic pigs, like wild maple and a little bit of elm.
replace the one they removed. large rock overhang in a canyon ones, can be destructive “What we’re able to see in this
Shimajiri says past experiments neat perspective from the DNA
that attempted such electron is that [previous research about
subtraction resulted in bonds that biodiversity loss in early Bronze
broke too quickly for definitive Age forests] coincides very
analysis. But his team’s molecule clearly with this shift from
remained stable long enough to sheep to pigs,” says Walls.
analyse it. Based on how X-rays Associating pig herding
and several kinds of light bounced with the forest change makes
off or were absorbed, it was found sense, says Suzanne Pilaar Birch
to have a stable one-electron bond at the University of Georgia.
9 DEBORAH LEE ROSSITER/SHUTTERSTOCK

(Nature, doi.org/njsv). “Pigs and boars are less selective


“It’s not often that you find in their feeding habits and can
a molecule with a new kind of be quite destructive.” The study
bond,” says Henry Rzepa at Imperial adds to our understanding
College London. This is a “major of how ancient humans
discovery” that could lead chemists changed the environment
to create whole new families of as they began practising
molecules, he says. ❚ agriculture, she adds. ❚

18 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


Space

Planet found in star’s ‘forbidden zone’


A distant planet should have been consumed when its star expanded to become a red giant
Jonathan O’Callaghan

A PLANET has been found orbiting Illustration of a planet


a dead star in a zone where it orbiting a white dwarf,
should have been incinerated the dim remnant of a star
when the star died. The discovery
might give us a window into the In a separate study, Keming
future of our solar system. Zhang at the University of
When stars like our sun exhaust California, San Diego, and his
their fuel, they first expand to colleagues found evidence of a
become a red giant, then collapse planet orbiting at twice the Earth-
NASA/JPL-CALTECH

into a dense, Earth-sized remnant sun distance around another


called a white dwarf. white dwarf 3000 light years away.
Using the James Webb Space The planet, roughly double the
Telescope (JWST), Mary Anne mass of Earth, was discovered
Limbach at the University of through microlensing when the
Michigan and her colleagues from their star. Some have been zone”, where it should have been white dwarf passed in front of
detected a spike in heat near a spotted in much tighter orbits. consumed by the expanding star another star and the gravitational
white dwarf called WD 0310-688, This can be explained by a planet (arXiv, doi.org/njpg). A possible pull of the planet stretched the
about 34 light years away from us. migrating inwards after the red explanation is that the planet is in star’s light (arXiv, doi.org/njph).
That spike corresponds to giant phase, perhaps being pulled the process of moving towards the It might once have been in an
a planet about three times the by another planet or passing star. star, says Limbach. If so, it would orbit similar to Earth’s before being
mass of Jupiter, orbiting its star Others have been found in more be a unique example of a white pushed outwards during its star’s
at somewhere between 0.1 and two distant orbits where they can dwarf planet seen while migrating. red giant phase, which suggests
times the Earth-sun distance. The survive the red giant phase “It sort of breaks our basic there is a chance our planet could
heat from this planet made the without being incinerated. understanding of where avoid plummeting into the sun
white dwarf appear about 21 per But it is harder to explain exoplanets should be,” says Susan in the distant future, says Zhang.
cent brighter due to a process how a planet could end up in Mullally at the Space Telescope “There seem to be more planets
called infrared excess, although what the team calls a “forbidden Science Institute in Maryland. closer to white dwarfs than we
this excess could also be explained were expecting,” says Limbach.
by a disc of dust in the system. “Maybe planets find their way
Only a handful of planets have What’s the weather in space? in more often, and maybe that’s
been found orbiting white dwarfs See Suzie Imber discuss how the sun’s activity can drive something that will happen in
before, and none at this distance auroras on 13 October newscientist.com/nslmag our solar system too.” ❚

Health

Placebo pain produced naturally in our bodies, medications that suppressed for pain relief, says Bingel. Opioids
was thought to be involved in the dopamine, encouraged its release and cannabinoids probably play a
relief may not placebo effect for pain relief. or didn’t alter its level. role, and hormones such as oxytocin
involve dopamine To get a clearer picture, Ulrike People’s dopamine levels and noradrenaline (norepinephrine)
Bingel at University Hospital Essen changed as expected, but this didn’t may also have an effect, she says.
THE hormone and neurotransmitter in Germany and her colleagues seem to affect how much pain they However, it is possible dopamine
dopamine is generally believed to asked 168 people, aged 18 to 40, felt or how much they anticipated comes into play when people are
be a driving force behind the pain to apply two creams to different that they would feel, which were more motivated to feel pain relief,
relief from the placebo effect, but parts of their arms before being both rated on a scale of 0 to 10 when pain is more intense, she says.
it may actually play little or no part touched with a heated rod, which (PLoS Biology, doi.org/njpc). The placebo effect probably
in the phenomenon. caused mild discomfort. The creams This suggests dopamine isn’t involves social factors that depend
The placebo effect occurs when were identical, but participants directly linked to the placebo effect on the context around treatment,
someone’s medical symptoms were told that one contained an which are unlikely to be mediated
are lessened through the power active pain-relieving ingredient and “People’s dopamine levels by dopamine, says Lauren Atlas
of expectation, such as by taking the other was acting as a placebo. changed as expected, but at the National Institutes of Health
a sugar pill. Dopamine, along with Shortly before, the researchers this didn’t seem to affect in Bethesda, Maryland. ❚
opioids and cannabinoids that are asked the participants to take how much pain they felt” Christa Lesté-Lasserre

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 19


Views
The columnist Aperture Culture Culture columnist Letters
Annalee Newitz says An otherworldly shot Explore the delights Bethan Ackerley isn’t Could crowdfunding
no to sexy Asian of astronauts arriving of 12 English natural sold on Bill Gates’s save threatened space
lady robots p25 back on Earth p26 landscapes p28 idea of the future p30 observatory? p31

Comment

Mixed signals
Smartphones have indeed created an anxious generation, but it isn’t
young people, it is their parents, argues neuroscientist Dean Burnett

A
CCORDING to Jonathan increasingly concerned for their
Haidt’s bestselling book children’s safety over the decades,
The Anxious Generation, being ever more likely to restrict
the proliferation of smartphones them from unsupervised free play
and subsequent exposure to social outdoors as a result. While this
media among children and young may have been for valid reasons,
people has harmed mental well- restricting a child’s freedom and
being, resulting in an “anxious movement leads to more health
generation”. Hence Haidt’s title. problems in the long term.
However, a closer look at the Ultimately, the anxieties of
data reveals that such thinking is many modern parents regarding
aimed in the wrong direction. The their children’s safety directly
meaning and causes of increased harm their children’s health.
rates of anxiety in young people It is quite the conundrum.
remain complex and unclear. This situation becomes even
But simply put, when it comes more surreal when you learn
to phones and modern tech, it is that this trend of increasingly
often parents who are the overly keeping children indoors has
anxious ones, not their children. gone into reverse in recent years.
So much of the current Why? The most obvious answer
discourse about phones and is phones! Children having their
young people stems from own phone means parents can
concerned parents, to the point check in on them at any time,
ELAINE KNOX

where legislation is being meaning they are more willing to


introduced to quell their fears let young people out of their sight.
by restricting young people’s So, isn’t it irrational to then blame
access to the technology. of proportion to the situation”, phones! Portability is clearly a key phones for children not going
The problem is, even the it could well be argued that, rather feature of this technology. outside enough? Yes, it is.
most in-depth studies have yet than in teens, phones are causing But a deeper dive into the And yet, as with many factors
to find any significant association excess anxiety in parents. research shows a surprising that affect the parent-teen
between phone use and mental This manifests in other ways trend. The time children spend dynamic, if there is a genuine
health issues in young people. too. There is a belief that children outdoors, and the distances they problem regarding phone use
And even when a link is identified, should be encouraged to put wander from home, have been (and this does happen), an open
it is invariably a tiny one. their phones down and go outside declining for decades, long before dialogue is the most helpful
Ultimately, the amount of more, because that is clearly the smartphones became ubiquitous. approach. It certainly beats
effort parents invest in reducing healthier thing to do. There are There are many factors behind trying to control a teenager’s
the dangers of smartphones for literal campaigns about this. But, this, such as urban development behaviour based on gut feelings,
young people is out of proportion yet again, this mindset doesn’t of once-empty spaces, or how suspicions or anxieties. ❚
to the evidence that such “dangers” fit with the actual evidence. there are ever more cars on the
even exist in the first place. For one, the idea that young roads, presenting a danger to an
Given that anxiety disorders people can either use their phones unsupervised, meandering child. Dean Burnett is author
can be described as “conditions or go outside is obviously flawed. But one significant factor in of Why Your Parents Are
that cause fear, dread and No such dichotomy exists. Many this decline is changing parental Hung Up On Your Phone
other symptoms that are out people still refer to them as mobile attitudes. Parents have grown and What to Do About It

20 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


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Martin Davies Leah Crane Rowan Hooper


Head of event production Senior reporter Podcast editor

New Scientist Live is just around the corner and the excitement This is my fifth New Scientist Two in five of the world’s plants
in our office is now palpable. I’m counting down the days until Live, and it has never been are threatened with extinction,
we open the doors to ExCeL London and thousands of science anything less than delightful. yet most people aren’t aware
enthusiasts come streaming in. The thing I am most excited for of the problem due to what is
This year, the show will run from 12 to 14 October, with is on Sunday, when US editor sometimes called “plant
Monday 14 October just for schools. We’ve got some of the Chelsea Whyte and I are blindness”. Chris Thorogood,
best-loved names in British science, from Alice Roberts to Adam putting on a live episode of our who is deputy director of the
Rutherford. You can explore the cosmos with Chris Lintott and podcast with New Scientist, Oxford Botanic Garden, is on a
discover why we die with Nobel prizewinner Venki Ramakrishnan. Dead Planets Society. mission to raise the profile of
If you can’t make it in person, we will also be streaming It’s a slightly unhinged plants and restore our vision.
every stage live for our online ticket holders. You can even buy an podcast where we take wild At New Scientist Live, I’m
online upgrade if you’re at the show so you can go online after the hypotheticals about how to looking forward to hearing him
event to catch up on anything you missed at the time. tinker with the cosmos and describe an epic expedition to
Our four main stages will cover the biggest questions in subject them to the scrutiny Indonesia to investigate one of
science. You can explore the secrets of the cosmos on the of actual science, with the help the world’s most extraordinary
Universe Stage, the mysteries of being human on the Mind and of a special guest who’s an plants: Rafflesia, sometimes
Body Stage, the wonders of nature on the Our Planet Stage actual scientist. This year we’re called the stinking corpse lily.
and the science of tomorrow on the Future Stage. going to play an interactive The plant produces the
On top of this, there is the Engage Stage, which is our game about wrecking the largest flower in the world
informal arena for interactive presentations. You can play universe, and it promises to (a metre across), which emits
genetics bingo, watch a recording of our hit podcast Dead Planets be extremely fun. the scent of rotting meat. It has
Society or debate the greatest science fiction novel of all time Aside from that, I’m excited no roots or leaves, instead
with our literary panel. to meet some robots and hear parasitising a host plant and
As always, our packed show-floor has amazing exhibits where lots of talks outside of my flowering when it needs to
you can get hands on with the latest science and innovations. usual bailiwick, from dinosaur reproduce. As Chris says,
From the hospital of the future to the Incredible Oceans behaviour to the evolution Rafflesia is a fraudster and a
experience, you’re sure to find something to delight and amaze. of free will. thief, and I can’t wait to hear
Our dedicated day for schools on Monday 14 October will be more about it.
packed with compelling, fun and thought-provoking talks, from
the rudest bits of science to how to leave the planet. Check out
our website if you want to bring your school along.
Whether you’re a veteran of past shows or are joining us for the
first time, you are welcome at the world’s greatest festival of ideas
and discovery. I can’t wait to see you there.
Carissa Wong Tim Boddy Obomate Briggs Matthew Sparkes
Health reporter Picture editor Trainee video producer Technology reporter

I’m excited to hear Kimberley While officially a cat person, This year I’m looking forward I’m excited to catch Neil Lawrence’s
Wilson’s talk on what to eat to I’ve found myself terribly excited to the talks on the Future Stage, talk on the difference between
boost our brain health, as well about Rachel Casey’s talk on the particularly Christopher French’s human and machine intelligence,
as Venki Ramakrishnan’s important role that dogs play in exploration of anomalistic and how AI can be safely used in
insights on why we die. our lives. I will offset this with a psychology. It’s a sub-discipline everyday life.
After those, it’ll be talk about all things human, with I hadn’t heard about, but as an I speak to so many
a tough choice between David Robson on the laws of avid watcher of shows and films cutting-edge researchers
David Spiegelhalter on how social connection. David has been containing paranormal about AI and hear wildly varying
uncertainty influences our lives on a fantastic run of sensitive and phenomena, I am fascinated opinions about where the current
or hearing Adam Rutherford moving writing for New Scientist by the idea that science can boom in research will take us and
speak about human origins and about human relationships and provide an explanation for what the risks and benefits are.
how science can be a weapon the psychological barriers that seemingly supernatural events. I may not always be convinced by
against racism. affect our day-to-day. Christopher promises to an opinion, but any time I hear an
I’m also looking forward I also cannot wait to see reveal how psychological expert talk I come away with a
to hosting the Mind and Body New Scientist staff members factors can influence our greater understanding.
Stage on the Sunday, where Bethan Ackerley and Alison Flood perception of extraordinary New Scientist has published
Camilla Nord will talk about the on a panel with our former editor experiences, and it will be a lot of stories about the harms
science behind mental health Emily Wilson, debating “what is interesting to watch him dissect that AI can do and the problems
and Robin Dunbar and his the greatest science fiction novel examples of spooky goings-on. that need solving in the field, but
colleagues will discuss the of all time?” on the always On the same stage is Anne Neil seems to have a more
psychology of group dynamics – engaging Engage Stage. I’m Coxon’s talk comparing and optimistic stance than some other
human behaviour is always expecting belly laughs, and for contrasting the media portrayal experts. He believes that our fears
fascinating! it to get seriously heated. of forensic science with reality. of being replaced by AI might be
Away from talks and panels, Having been very close to misplaced, and he promises to talk
I’m intrigued and mildly scared by becoming a forensic scientist more about that, which I hope will
the Incredible Oceans experience, because of the masterpiece that be as convincing as it would be
where there is a promise to get up is Silent Witness, I am looking comforting to hear.
close and personal with the forward to finding out whether
giants of the ocean. I will be disappointed or happy
with my choice.

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Views Columnist
This changes everything

Sexy Asian lady robots? No thanks Techno-Orientalism is


a strand of futurism that condemns and erases Asian cultural
power. We need to fight back against it, says Annalee Newitz

W
E HAVE all come across into the stereotype that they are ByteDance, a firm founded in
dystopian visions technologically advanced but China. Fear of an Asian-dominated
of a bad future, like culturally backwards, needing future has inspired anti-
Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s “humanisation” by the West. Rho immigration laws across Europe,
Tale. Less familiar is the practice Chung, a critic and researcher at steep tariffs on Chinese goods
of bad futurism, often hidden the University of Edinburgh, UK, in the US, and violence aimed
inside seemingly compelling drew a parallel between the fear at Asian immigrants in the UK.
stories, which promises an absurd of automation stealing jobs and Bad futurism leads to bad
tomorrow based on foolhardy the fear that Asian people will. decision-making, and that can slow
Annalee Newitz is a assumptions about the present. The term techno-Orientalism or even stop valuable innovation.
science journalist and It was my pursuit of the latter that is a nod to Edward Said, whose So what’s the solution? During
author. Their latest book brought me to a packed convention 1978 book Orientalism laid bare the panel in Glasgow, author Eliza
is Stories Are Weapons: hall at the World Science Fiction the way Western nations have Chan said it was partly a matter of
Psychological warfare and the Convention in Glasgow, UK, demonised and fetishised their telling stories that include actual
American mind. They are the in August to watch an all-star Eastern neighbours. It came into Asian people and represent Asian
co-host of the Hugo-winning panel of authors and critics widespread use in the 2010s, cultures in respectful ways. Her
podcast Our Opinions Are discussing “techno-Orientalism”. thanks in part to the influential fantasy novel Fathomfolk explores
Correct. You can follow them As I discovered, however, this anthology Techno-Orientalism: a world where figures from
@annaleen and their website idea goes far beyond fiction; Chinese and British folklore
is techsploitation.com it has infected our political and “In the dark future deal with war, immigration
economic plans for the future, too. of the space opera and finding community at the
You may not know the term, bottom of the sea. Aliette De
Firefly, characters
but if you have watched the 1982 Bodard’s Universe of Xuya series,
Annalee’s week movie Blade Runner or the 2002 curse in Mandarin, meanwhile, is set in a distant
What I’m reading TV series Firefly, you have seen it but we never meet future where Chinese and
Model Machines: in action. As critic Kelly Kanayama a Chinese person” Vietnamese cultures have given
A history of the put it, techno-Orientalism is a rise to a spacefaring civilisation.
Asian as automaton, collection of tropes that describe a Imagining Asia in speculative Still, fiction alone can’t solve
a fascinating exploration “bad, Asian-influenced future with fiction, history and media, edited this problem. We need the US
of the Asian robot no Asians in it”. In Blade Runner, by David S. Roh et. al., and has and China to renew their decades-
trope, by Long T. Bui. an apocalyptically polluted Los since become a handy epithet long Science and Technology
Angeles is full of signs in Japanese, to describe futurism based on Agreement, which fosters
What I’m watching but features virtually no Japanese racism and prejudice rather than collaboration between them on
Ramen Akaneko, characters. In the dark future of evidence-based speculation. scientific endeavours. As of me
a delightful anime the space opera Firefly, characters This isn’t just a matter of sci-fi’s writing this, the agreement has
about cats who run a curse in Mandarin, but we never plausibility: techno-Orientalist lapsed, though Nature reports that
noodle shop in Japan. meet a Chinese person. These anxieties influence the real world the two nations are still in talks.
are just two of many sci-fi stories too, especially when it comes to The European Commission needs
What I’m working on that exhibit techno-Orientalism, science and technology. That’s to invite more Asian partners into
Shipping free books to which condemns and erases Asian because techno-Orientalism is a the Horizon grant programme,
states in the US where cultural power at the same time. fantasy about how Asian nations a €53.5 billion fund for research
they have been banned. Mai-Anh Vu Peterson at will destroy the West using their into climate, health and more.
Britain’s East and South East Asian superior tech. And we need to see Western
Network, an independent arts In the US, this fantasy has governments creating a safer
organisation, pointed out that made it harder for scientists environment for Asian immigrant
another techno-Orientalist trick to collaborate with Chinese workers and students.
is to represent Asian people as colleagues across the Pacific, Techno-Orientalism leads
robots – or, as Kanayama summed even leading to the arrests of US to fear of the future and of each
it up, “sexy Asian lady robots”. scientists accused of colluding other. If we want our civilisations
Outside sci-fi, Asian people are with the Chinese government. to advance, it is time to throw
This column appears depicted as robotic, willing to do It is arguably fuelling many US the old tropes in the trash,
monthly. Up next week: any kind of labour obediently. The politicians’ obsession with reach beyond our borders
Rowan Hooper panellists agreed that this idea fits banning TikTok, created by and build something better. ❚

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 25


Views Aperture

26 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


Down to Earth

Photographer Andrew McConnell


Publisher GOST Books

YOU could be forgiven for thinking


that this dramatic image is a still
from a forthcoming science fiction
epic, but it is actually the work of
photographer Andrew McConnell,
part of his in-depth series Some
Worlds Have Two Suns – and
it is very much of this planet.
McConnell began documenting
the movements of Russian Soyuz
rockets in 2015. Every three
months, a spacecraft takes off
from Baikonur Cosmodrome,
a spaceport in Kazakhstan,
carrying three astronauts and
cosmonauts on a 6-hour
journey to the International
Space Station. At roughly the
same time, three space travellers
come back to Earth, landing
in the remote grasslands to
Kazakhstan’s north-east.
This remarkable photograph
from 2017 shows Russian
cosmonaut Fyodor Yurchikhin in
front of the just-landed Soyuz MS
spacecraft (US astronauts Peggy
Whitson and Jack Fischer are
still inside the vehicle).
McConnell says that “often
at these landings, the helicopters
would arrive first with all the
engineers and support crew”,
making it challenging to
photograph freely. With this shot,
he was able to “get into position
before the helicopters came and
kicked up the sandstorm”, and
knew immediately it was a
“special image… unlike any
other landing I had seen”. It
felt, he says, “otherworldly”.
Opening with Kulash
Akhmetova’s poem Prayer –
“I saw sandstorms – they wiped
out the steppe settlement /
I saw rockets – like visions, they
hovered above me,” she writes,
in part of it – Some Worlds Have
Two Suns is out on 4 October. ❚

Tim Boddy

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 27


Views Culture

Rewriting nature for our time


A new entry in the canon of white, middle-class English nature writers is welcome,
says James McConnachie, but what about the flowering of other, more diverse voices?
THE tradition of the English generous with information is too
nature writer is long, proud and easy. A more serious complaint is
distinctly genteel. Its origins lie that the encounters with nature
with the pioneering 18th-century documented are rather idealised.
curate Gilbert White, writing from They are also solitary – the mess
his inherited family home in of human existence is mostly out
Selborne, Hampshire. He features of frame. Lewis-Stempel, in short,
in a fine new piece of nature is one of those white, middle-class
writing, England: A natural history “lone enraptured males” evoked
(Doubleday/Transworld) when the by poet Kathleen Jamie in a
author observes that “the parson review of another title for the
had the time to stand and stare”. London Review of Books. He
That author, John Lewis- even mentions a waxed jacket, a
Stempel, also has the parson’s Labrador (called Plum) and family
luxury. A successful writer with a who fought at Agincourt. There is
string of nature books behind him, also his column for The Times and
he explores 12 English landscapes, his landholdings – the 40 acres
LUZA STUDIOS/GETTY IMAGES

from the Thames estuary to the in Herefordshire he has written


Cornish coast via a beechwood in about so brilliantly in the past,
Buckinghamshire, a Yorkshire plus the farmhouse in France.
moor and a Norfolk broad. None of this matters a jot,
There isn’t much of a thesis: except that it forms part of a
the title, “England”, feels more package with a vision of England
like an envelope than an idea. some will find comforting and
He goes to a place, mostly rural, (“It’s the phosphate,” says Lewis- as acetylsalicylic acid, the active others excluding – and which
describes what he sees and uses Stempel.) He even cites scientific ingredient in aspirin. That said, I found unoriginal. When he
that as a springboard to tell you papers, which is untypical of the salicin and other molecules in celebrates a particular kind of
stuff about nature. And he does Greater English Nature Writer. willow can produce slight analgesic chocolate-box English village as
it very well. The writing is full of All this combines with effects, so OK, maybe the pony “how you think of England”, it
acute observations and striking his seemingly encyclopaedic knows something after all. assumes a lot about who you are.
metaphors. A passing kingfisher knowledge of every creature and But quibbling with a book so Such objections aren’t inverted
leaves “an atomic particle of wildflower in England – and an
cobalt to die in the air behind it”. astonishing degree of luck and
A river smells “lustral, weedy, skill in spotting them. He sees Start here…
dog wet, vital. Hormonal.” otters, a seal, an Arctic char (in
A Flat Place Cairn
His knowledge, though, is the Lake Windermere), vole babies and
Noreen Masud Kathleen Jamie
really impressive thing. Lewis- adder’s eggs – even a dormouse.
Penguin/Melville House Sort of Books
Stempel knows beech trees are There are moments when
anemophilous (wind-pollinated) this omniscience falters. It isn’t “A gannet flew “You’re crossing a
and that the lark’s vocal organ, the exactly true that grass needs a alongside the ferry gapsite; the empty
syrinx, lacks a cartilage fold called minimum air temperature of for a while, its acres beside a
a pessulus, so produces a vibrato. 6°C to grow in the UK. It depends head yellowed as dock – ropeworks?
He separates the anadromous on the species, and the key factor though by accident: warehouse? –
salmon (migrating from salt to is soil temperature. Watching his brushed with colonised by grasses,
fresh water to breed) from the Shetland pony nibbling on a willow turmeric or aged knapweed, even
catadromous eel (the opposite). tree, Lewis-Stempel repeats the like paper. It flew very straight some pioneer birch… a woman’s
He is also well up on agri- popular myth that the willow and seriously… and I had a strong pushing her infant in a buggy;
science. He can pick apart the “contains aspirin”, and claims sense of it as a living thing, an her black garments billow in the
disadvantages, for wildlife, of a that his animals are practising animal, held aloft by its muscles: onshore breeze. You proceed…
silage cut over haymaking, and zoopharmacognosy (animal a thick, sweet potato double headed for the human-shaped hole
confidently quarrel with journalist self-medication). While willows handful of bird, choosing to move wrenched in the wire fence, then a
George Monbiot over the sources do contain the related molecule through the air beside us.” pavement, tarmacked and official.”
of the pollution of the river Wye. salicin, this isn’t quite the same

28 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


New Scientist
recommends

snobbery. Thoughtful writers odour of chemicals” – a place local less comfortable perspectives. Alex Wilkins
like Richard Smyth (a distinctly people, inexplicably, “nevertheless Publishers have fallen over Reporter
London
Northern, working-class voice regarded as bucolic and Edenic”. themselves to find and promote
whose favourite bird, splendidly, People like Lewis-Stempel. a more diverse range of authors, My recent visit to Berlin
is the pigeon) have skilfully traced To be fair, England is anything and the result, in environmental, for a planetary science
the links between conservation but ignorant of environmental landscape and nature writing, conference coincided
and conservatism, the wilderness problems. Lewis-Stempel has has been an efflorescence. with Berlin Art Week.
ideal and colonialism, and the harsh words for agri-business and There are plenty such writers The exhibitions were
folk tendency and nativism. knows more than most about its at work in the UK beyond Malay mostly light years away
Lewis-Stempel doesn’t confront unfriendly wildlife practices. After and Smyth. Try Jamie’s new book, from space and planets,
uncomfortable thoughts. For him, rhapsodising about swimming Cairn (see box), or her Sightlines
“the countryside of England is the in the Wye as a child, he admits (Sort of Books). There is also Jini
greatest work of art in the world”. given today’s pollution, he “would Reddy, who explores belonging
It can look different to people not go into long stetches of its and otherness in Wanderland
whose ancestors didn’t fight at flowing waters in chest-waders”. (Bloomsbury Wildlife) and
Agincourt. Michael Malay has just And at a downbeat moment, he Wild Times (Bradt Guides). Dara
won the prestigious Wainwright McAnulty, a neurodiverse young
prize for nature writing for his Late “In Lewis-Stempel’s writer from Northern Ireland, is but, to my surprise,
Light (see box, below), describing encounters with another Wainwright prizewinner. some were scientific.
his love for the English outdoors Or Noreen Masud (see box), whose Take Rohini Devasher’s
despite feeling “self-conscious,
nature, the mess of haunting A Flat Place tackles exhibition Borrowed
aware of my out-of-placeness” as an human existence is English landscapes in the context Light, an intriguing
Indonesian-Australian immigrant. mostly out of frame” of post-traumatic stress disorder exploration of astronomy.
For a radically different view, there and the legacy of a postcolonial Its centrepiece, One
is Australian Richard Flanagan in stares glumly out of the train at age, melding memoir and nature Hundred Thousand Suns
his astoundingly original memoir, “spavined diesel-dosed bushes writing in a startling way. (pictured), was a four-
Question 7 (Chatto & Windus/ of buddleia. Creeping bramble, Internationally, cross-genre screen video installation
Knopf). He called the English as bad as barbed wire. Not much writing has proved fecund, often drawing on Devasher’s
countryside “a long-ago poisoned to see.” But then that’s Urban in the context of activism. There time at Kodaikanal Solar
land, domesticated and dead, full England. Not the Countryside. is Nemonte Nenquimo’s We Will Observatory in southern
of the sounds of diesel and the You don’t have to look far for Not Be Saved, with Mitch Anderson India. Interviews with the
(Wildfire/Abrams Books), about the astronomers on the deep
Amazon. Robin Wall Kimmerer’s meaning they found in
2013 book Braiding Sweetgrass (see experiencing eclipses
box) is still a beacon for exploring were particularly moving.
Late Light Braiding Sweetgrass
scientific and Indigenous plant I also visited a photo
Michael Malay Robin Wall Kimmerer
knowledge. And we must mention exhibition called Labor
Manilla Press Penguin/Milkweed Editions
feminist-environmentalist Rebecca Lab, by Sarah Ancelle
“In England the “I wonder what it Solnit for her wonderful A Field Schönfeld. Her work
hills would hold feels like to drag Guide to Getting Lost (Canongate/ focuses on the chemicals
the light for hours, that tender skin – Penguin Books) and Orwell’s Roses, involved in being female,
as though the with a smooth, (Granta Books/Penguin Books), with psychedelic-tinged
sun had become soft belly made which explores the English microscope images
mechanically stuck for sliding over relationship with nature. of hormones, such
in its descent – no wet leaves – across Lewis-Stempel’s England is as progesterone or
longer in view and yet close enough the asphalt. I stoop to pick her up, richly informed and beautifully oestrogen, on prints hung
to light everything up: the valleys, circling my two fingers just behind written. It is deeply rooted. around a white room
the sky, the paths. I loved the light of her front legs. There is surprisingly Indigenous, even. But, sometimes, (we had to don lab-like
those long evenings and the mood little resistance. It’s like picking up outsiders have more interesting shoe covers). Faint,
of those suspended hours; and I an over-ripe banana: my fingertips things to say. ❚ throbbing techno in the
ROHINI DEVASHER

liked the experience of walking sink into her body, cold and soft background completed
deep into blueness.” and wet.” James McConnachie is a writer this eerie experience.
and editor based in Hampshire, UK

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 29


Views Culture
The TV column

Worlds apart Bill Gates’s Netflix series offers a bumpy ride as it discusses routes
and roadblocks to the future – AI, climate, inequality, malaria and more. But Gates
looms too large for alternative solutions to emerge, says Bethan Ackerley

Bill Gates thinks the ultra-


rich should give away
their wealth, as he does

alternative – restructuring beyond


the business as usual that keeps
millions in poverty and poisons
the planet – would be almost
inconceivable, the show implies.
Bethan Ackerley is a The most charitable reading of
subeditor at New Scientist. this approach I can stomach is that
She loves sci-fi, sitcoms it is a spectacular failure of vision.
and anything spooky. When Gates covers topics like
Follow her on X @inkerley climate change and malaria, the
series is better, enlightening even.
In “Can we stop global warming?”,
ROB LIGGINS/NETFLIX

there is a detailed breakdown of


the sectors of the economy most
difficult to decarbonise. Gates
invests in and is a customer
of many companies offering
WHEN you want to imagine the ChatGPT might soon hit a ceiling technical solutions to some of
future, who do you turn to? Friends of usefulness. And what happens climate change’s stickiest issues.
TV
and family? Science fiction? New if AI-generated slop is fed back into A lot of the firms featured have
What’s Next? The
Scientist? Now you can check in training data? You won’t find out also appeared in New Scientist,
future with Bill Gates
with Bill Gates, as the Microsoft from this series, which is weighed such as Climeworks, which is
Netflix
co-founder and multibillionaire down by its attempts to present developing large direct-air-capture
has worked with Netflix on What’s Gates as a leader in this field. plants to suck carbon out of the
Next? The future with Bill Gates, in I would also advise skipping atmosphere. It is refreshing that
Bethan also which he digs into make-or-break the fourth episode, “Can you be Gates, Climeworks and the film-
recommends... issues: artificial intelligence, too rich?” Prepare to be shocked to makers all stress that such
Books
misinformation, climate change, infrastructure is nowhere near the
Non-Stop Inertia income inequality and disease. scale needed to solve the problem.
Ivor Southwood
“When Gates covers
The five-part series is uneven, Such sober analysis would have
Zer0 Books topics like climate
though, and the worst instalment greatly benefited the whole series.
Modern life is characterised is perhaps the first, “What can AI
change and malaria, By the final episode, the focus is
by restlessness – about do for us/to us”. Gates is upfront the series is better, on malaria, Gates’s real expertise.
work, housing, relationships. about his role advising the leaders enlightening even” It is a thoughtful exploration of
Southwood argues that this
of OpenAI, whose ChatGPT the tough ethical, ecological and
frenzy masks a paralysis of
transformed our understanding of learn that Gates believes the ultra- social issues around developing
action and imagination.
generative technologies in 2022. rich shouldn’t be prevented from vaccines and technologies such as
But the documentary pretty much accumulating vast hoards, but gene drives, which could eliminate
Mutual Aid takes it as read that current AIs are should be more like him and give whole mosquito species.
Dean Spade
miraculously competent – bar the it away. We are told, constantly, But even this nuance is marred
Verso
odd bias and hallucination – and that he has effectively imposed by the endless myth-making of
For an alternative view
unstoppably marching towards higher taxes on himself, as if this Gates as god-emperor of all he
on how transformational
superintelligence. Many would shouldn’t be expected of someone surveys. He is undoubtedly an
change can be achieved, try
question that characterisation. in his position, and are presented intelligent man with considerable
this great primer on mutual
Little time is afforded to key with a mainly US-centric view of achievements, just as What’s
aid, in which resources are
questions such as the legalities running an economy. Next? undoubtedly has a few
shared within communities
of sometimes using copyrighted Systems must be tweaked to big insights. However, it is hard
to provide unconditionally
material to teach AIs and whether decrease the gap between rich to see other futures with Gates
for those in need.
so-called transformer models like and poor, we are also told. The standing in the way. ❚

30 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


Views Your letters

Editor’s pick approach to reconciling the cancellation. Surely NASA could Astrology is bunk, but just
quantum and macroscopic find some protocol that allows maybe it did have a heyday
worlds. His perspective seems it to accept a private donation?
Out of the corner of my eye 24 August, p 10
to align closely with the principles
I spied a monstrous thing of process physics, which posits a From Neil Wickens,
14 September, p 23 Trolley problem has a
real world emerging from systems Uraidla, South Australia
From Brian Darvell, of interacting processes rather rather selfless solution I have to agree that astrology
Neston, Wiltshire, UK than the physical interactions 31 August, p 28 can only be regarded as nonsense.
Fear of snakes really is hardwired, of elementary particles. From Terry Klumpp, How can the behaviour of any
as your look at our fascination with This is rooted in the process Melbourne, Australia particular one-twelfth of the
monsters highlights. At a social philosophy of Alfred Whitehead, There was a mention of the classic world’s population be governed by
meeting, I had an involuntary which has found widespread trolley problem in your look at the position of the stars at birth?
startle reaction, thinking I had seen application in the social and a new book on morality. This left However, please consider
a python out of the corner of my biological sciences. me wondering whether – rather the following: it is a fact that
eye – a friend was wearing brown than choose to push an innocent a mother’s behaviour, living
trainers with a pale buff “eye stripe” bystander into the path of the conditions, diet and so on can
Plastics came from oil,
either side. The feeling was strong imaginary, out-of-control tram to influence the development of
and kept recurring that evening they may go back to oil save five people – you could, were the fetus during pregnancy. If we
and on subsequent occasions, even 7 September, p 17 you a paragon of virtue, instead go back to when living conditions
though I knew what it was. I have From Christopher Jessop, throw yourself into the path of were seasonally dependent, then
no actual snake-related concerns Haverfordwest, Pembrokeshire, UK this runaway vehicle to use your it is clear that a child conceived
and have had no bad experiences. Considering what a hotchpotch own body as the trolley brake and in, say, October in the northern
I have never seen a python in the of substances are released from save the five lives. But who among hemisphere – where astrology
wild, but this was unshakeable. crude oil when it is “cooked” in a us would be so selfless? developed – would gestate during
refinery, would it not be possible a time of cooler weather, a lack
From Guy Cox, Sydney, Australia to use the vaporised plastic bottles of fresh fruit and vegetables,
I and many others have argued
One day a strange signal
and bags you describe as a refinery inhalation of smoke from open
that goblins, elves, pixies etc. are side-feed? Then, you could came from a distant star fires and so on, whereas a child
folk memories of other Homo or repurpose those molecules any Letters, 14 September conceived in, say, April would
hominin species, which we know way you wanted while using an From Paul Whiteley, gestate during months with
coexisted with our species. existing process. Unless, that is, Bittaford, Devon, UK an abundance of healthy food.
Now, I am going to take this there is some problem with the John Hedger’s letter on feeding This could lead to the children
one stage further in relation to chemistry of the plastics that coffee pulp to animals and the appearing to have characteristics
“monsters”. The mass extinction would preclude this approach. necessity of getting out in the depending on their date of birth
at the end of the Cretaceous field to find out why they weren’t and, hence, the position of the
apparently wiped out 100 per thriving made me chuckle. stars. There could be subtle
Could crowdfunding save
cent of dinosaurs. I suggest that In a similar vein, as a duty variations spread over the year.
a few, scarce, surviving dinosaurs threatened observatory? engineer many years ago, I was So, perhaps star signs weren’t
were around long enough after 24 August, p 20 called into the control room of altogether nonsense at the time.
this to create the myth of dragons, From Milan Kralik Jr, a large multinational telescope.
found throughout Eurasia from Spinnerstown, Pennsylvania, US The visiting scientists were getting
Try the zero-calorie
Scandinavia to China. Of course, Chanda Prescod-Weinstein’s some strange results from their
fire-breathing creatures are column made me think that if ever spectrum of a star. They were gingerbread man diet
biologically impossible. However, there were a project worth saving excitedly talking about this and 7 September, p 47
on a cold morning, a warm- with a crowdfunding campaign, coming up with fantastic theories From Dan Salmons,
blooded reptile would have steam it would be the Chandra X-ray and solutions as to what might Ilminster, Somerset, UK
on its breath like a mammal, so Observatory. There are millions be happening inside the star or Tom Gauld’s delightful cartoon
it is easy to see how the legend of scientists, science students and indeed whether they could trust featuring gingerbread men raises
could have arisen. astronomy aficionados around the data. The spectrum did look an interesting possibility. If what
the world who would, I believe, weird. I went into the dome and one gingerbread man says is true,
contribute to this worthy cause found that someone had forgotten namely that you can “run, run as
This new take on reality
to save it from the threat of to turn the fluorescent lights out! fast as you can! You can’t catch
reminds me of something me…”, then the only conclusion
7 September, p 32 is that gingerbread men are able
From Dave Holtum, Want to get in touch? to travel at the speed of light.
Bathampton, Somerset, UK Send letters to letters@newscientist.com; From this, you can conclude that
Thanks for the intriguing article, see terms at newscientist.com/letters they must have no mass. So on
“Reality’s comeback”, which Letters sent to New Scientist, 9 Derry Street, this basis, they appear to be the
discussed Robert Spekkens’s London, W8 5HY will be delayed perfect treat for those on a diet. ❚

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 31


Features Cover story

Reimagining
democracy
Can digital technologies help us rebuild a true government
for the people, by the people? Laura Spinney investigates

M
ANY of us entered this so-called
super-election year with a sense
of foreboding. So far, not much
has happened to allay those fears. Russia’s
war on Ukraine is exacerbating a perception
that democracy is threatened in Europe
and beyond. In the US, Donald Trump, a
presidential candidate with self-professed
autocratic tendencies, has faced two
assassination attempts. And more broadly,
people seem to be losing faith in politics.
“Most people from a diverse array of countries
around the world lack confidence in the
performance of their political institutions,”
says a 2024 report by the International Institute
for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
On many objective measures, too, democracy
isn’t functioning as it should. The systems we
call democracies tend to favour the rich. Political
violence is growing, as is legislative gridlock,
and worldwide, elections are becoming less free
and fair. Some 30 years after commentators
crowed about the triumph of Western liberal
democracy, their prediction seems further than
ever from being realised. What happened?
According to Lex Paulson at the University
Mohammed VI Polytechnic in Rabat, Morocco,
we have lost sight of what democracy is. “We
have made a terrible confusion between the
system known as a republic – which relies on
elections, parties and a permanent governing
class – and the system known as a democracy,
in which citizens directly participate in
decisions and rotate power.” The good news,
he says, is that we can revive the original dream
of government by the people for the people.
That is what he and other researchers are trying
to do. With insights from complexity theory,
innovative online platforms and help from
artificial intelligence, they are reimagining
democracy for the 21st century by returning
collective intelligence to the core of politics.
The word and concept of democracy dates
KYLE ELLINGSON

from around 500 BC, when the people of


Athens in ancient Greece devised a radical new
system of government to harness collective

32 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


know-how to find the best solutions to their Political scientists and tech experts have
shared problems. In doing so, they grasped been discussing these ideas for 50 years, but
intuitively what a body of research now only in the past decade have they begun talking
confirms: a cognitively diverse group produces to each other. And funding is now available to
better solutions than even the most brilliant explore democratic innovation – for instance
individual. Admittedly, they left a lot of under the European Union’s Horizon Europe
people out of their political problem-solving – programme and through a fund set up by
notably women and enslaved people – but OpenAI, the makers of ChatGPT. Momentum
their system was far more inclusive than is building, says Paulson. The question is, can
anything that had gone before, and it paid such innovations revamp democracy and
dividends. Among the city state’s many restore stability in places where social crises
achievements were important advances in and political violence are looming?
astronomy, maths, literature and medicine. It is a big ask, because an electorate is a
complex system that can behave in non-
intuitive ways, becoming dysfunctional when
A modern Athens pushed through so-called tipping points. “It’s
Today, most of us who think we are living in like freezing water,” says Alexander Siegenfeld,
democracies are in fact living in systems closer a physicist at MIT. “If I keep lowering the
to oligarchies, where the governing is done temperature, nothing happens, nothing
by small, usually wealthy elites. These elites happens, and then I lower it a bit further
are not only buffered from most people’s and all of a sudden the water freezes.”
problems, but from the problem-solving Siegenfeld and his colleague Yaneer Bar-Yam
capacity of the crowd, too. The result is that at the New England Complex Systems Institute
many people feel they aren’t being well served. in Massachusetts used mathematical
In many places, there has been a populist modelling to explore one such tipping point.
backlash. But populism is even worse at Political polarisation waxes and wanes, but
solving our increasingly complex problems. they found that when high polarisation
“A lot of the problems we face as a species are combines with low voter turnout, the system
the result of poor large-scale decision-making becomes unstable, producing violent swings in
processes,” says Mark Klein at the outcomes. This is to do with people who have
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. more extreme views being more likely to vote
Klein and Paulson are among a growing and politicians chasing these votes. As a result,
number of academics advocating a return to the system produces governments and policies
the Athenian model, scaled up for the modern that most people don’t want, frustrated voters
world. For Paulson, who worked on campaigns then abstain and the instability is exacerbated.
for presidents Barack Obama of the US and The US went through such a period in the
Emmanuel Macron of France, the solution is 1970s, the researchers found, and elections
three-pronged. First, revert to the Athenian have become increasingly unstable ever since –
practice of sortition or “lottocracy”, where culminating in the 2020 presidential election
policy-makers are chosen by random, and the political violence that followed. “This
representative selection, as juries are in many isn’t just a patch of disturbance,” says Bar Yam.
countries. Second, capture as much collective “Exit requires change.”
intelligence as possible through AI-augmented Siegenfeld and Bar-Yam believe replacing
deliberation. And third, reinstate civic the first-past-the-post electoral system, which
education to produce citizens who are willing prevails in most US states, with ranked-choice
and useful participants of a true democracy. voting and making voting compulsory >

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 33


Disagreeing “Many problems we face are the result
agreeably of poor large-scale decision-making”
In the Deliberatorium, an would help restore stability. Others, however, tablet, and the results kick off a facilitated
online collective intelligence argue it would still fail to harness collective discussion. They are polled again before
tool developed by Mark intelligence. Political scientist Hélène leaving and in under 2 hours “we see a small
Klein at the Massachusetts Landemore at Yale University is among them. but significant shift in people’s preferences”,
Institute of Technology and She wants to see the return of sortition in the says Kathy Peach, director of Nesta’s Centre
his colleagues, people are form of “open mini-publics” – effectively for Collective Intelligence Design. She says
presented with a problem citizens’ assemblies with randomly selected, this indicates that people are thinking
and asked to propose demographically representative members. collaboratively and listening to each other.
solutions. They can see all the Although unlikely to be the shape of national It also chimes with evidence that people
proposals and then argue the governance anytime soon, in recent decades reason most effectively through argument.
pros and cons of each, the such assemblies have become more influential Participants report enjoying the experience too.
arguments appearing in a in Western countries. In Ireland, for instance, However, this approach doesn’t address
cloud around each potential one contributed to the legalisation of abortion perhaps the biggest problem with mini-publics:
solution; they can also add in 2018. And in France, Landemore guided there are limits to how many people can take
refinements, but they can’t another that culminated in the right-to-die bill part before the debate quality suffers. Research
edit or delete another now before parliament. “[Mini-publics] are suggests the optimal size of a discussion group
person’s contribution. showing us a way of doing politics differently,” is small – seven people or fewer. That is difficult
Participants go on to rate the says Graham Smith at the University of to square with ensuring cognitive diversity. But
arguments and, in a final Westminster, UK. He thinks they are better the solution could be under our noses.
step, collaboratively refine suited to solving 21st-century problems than Large groups of people talk to each other
the preferred solution. the structures that govern us now. all the time on social media. Far from halting
Say the problem is how But citizens’ assemblies have drawbacks: the democratic backslide, however, this
to reduce greenhouse gas they are vulnerable to influence from whoever dialogue seems to be accelerating it. At
emissions. Someone might sets the question being examined or hires present, online discussion platforms leave
suggest a carbon tax, experts to advise them, and can also be time- our collective intelligence almost untapped,
someone else a cap-and- consuming. In the UK, a charity called Nesta says Klein. The essential problem, in his view,
trade system. But because a is trying to minimise these problems in an is that the conversation is structureless.
solution can generate further ongoing experiment called the Strategy Room. “We’ve used internet technology to take
“sub”-problems (in the case Twelve people sit around a table and watch a regular, unstructured conversations and try
of a carbon tax, for example, factual presentation on the problem delivered to do them with hundreds of thousands of
how high should the tax be?), via a tablet. Their initial views are polled, also by people, and it just doesn’t scale,” he says,
what emerges is a topic-
based “deliberation map” in
which questions and answers
are interleaved and each
answer is surrounded by
a cloud of arguments.
“Every distinct point
appears just once, in a logical
place, like in a library,” says
Klein. This makes it easy
to find solutions, but also
to spot gaps, including
ideas that haven’t received
much discussion. A human
moderator provides oversight
for now, but an AI will
PAUL FAITH/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

eventually be used for much


of the process. Bad solutions
are quickly sidelined and
people are encouraged to
build on the thinking of
others and aim for consensus,
not just majority support.

34 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


A woman casts her vote in
the presidential election in
Venezuela (far left). A rally
of the main opposition party
in Taiwan (left).

don’t tend to see democratic reform as a


FEDERICO PARRA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

priority. “When you are struggling to pay for

REUTERS/CARLOS GARCIA RAWLINS


all your statutory responsibilities… public
engagement falls to the bottom of the pile,”
says Peach. Arguably, though, governments
are resisting their own salvation. For
instance, since embracing mass participatory
democracy just a decade ago, Taiwan, which
many cite as a model, has seen dwindling
polarisation and rising trust in government.
Change will also need support from citizens.
resulting in a huge comment pile where Engineers are familiar with the concept of the This is where the third pillar of Paulson’s
ideas and voices get lost. People resort to Pareto front, the subset of all possible solutions solution, civic education, comes in. We need to
unproductive strategies to get heard, including that score optimally on multiple criteria. At the relearn the value of collective intelligence. The
clique formation and attention wars, moment, we spend a lot of time far from that Athenians learned democracy by doing it, and
while others self-censor or drop out. The front. But the Deliberatorium is designed to through such communal activities as civic
result is groupthink and toxicity – emergent get people closer to it – and it seems to work. festivals, sport and theatre, that helped them
dysfunction, once again. However, capturing In real-life situations where Klein has tested understand themselves as part of something
collective intelligence online is possible, as the tool – including at corporations Siemens bigger. In Taiwan, the recently overhauled
Wikipedia’s success shows. Despite being and BP, and the Democratic party in Italy – curriculum emphasises co-creation and the
compiled by unpaid volunteers, it is as accurate several hundred people have found an optimal common good from the age of 6.
as commercial encyclopaedias written by paid solution in as little as a day. “If the medium But even the best deliberative technology
experts, and more frequently consulted. is the message, this is about changing the won’t get you far if people are resistant to
The challenge is to improve online medium to change the message,” he says. new ideas and perspectives, says Simon
platforms and find ways of combining Buckingham Shum at the University of
them with face-to-face discussion for a Technology Sydney, in Australia. He spent years
more representative debate. Klein and his Bring on the bots developing tools for online collaboration before
colleagues have developed a tool called the Others are scaling up the debate in different turning his attention to education, and thinks
Deliberatorium, which guides users through ways. In Tilburg, the Netherlands, an OpenAI- what is required is a certain mindset. “The fancy
a process that is transparent and structured funded consortium is using large language words would be ‘epistemic humility’, which is
by topic (see “Disagreeing agreeably”, page 34). models (LLMs) – the technology that powers to hold your beliefs lightly and to be ready and
ChatGPT – to summarise small-group open [to other people’s],” he says. He has built
discussions in close to real time. The goal is an LLM-powered chatbot called Qreframer that,
Celebrations in Dublin to then share these AI-generated summaries rather than answer a student’s question,
after a referendum between groups to “cross-pollinate” the challenges the assumptions underlying it.
in Ireland overturned debate among a larger number of people. Political change requires bottom-up
the country’s abortion Meanwhile, another project at Delft and top-down inputs, says Paulson – both
ban, an outcome University of Technology, also in the a participatory movement and creative
recommended by a Netherlands, took the recommendations of leadership. Once those are in place, it
citizen’s assembly a citizens’ assembly on energy sustainability takes a spark – a kairos in ancient Greek, or
and presented them to a larger group of “opportune moment” – to mobilise them.
people via a digital platform. That larger group That could be an acute crisis to which
ranked them, explaining their arguments; government is perceived to have responded
this information was then fed on to a second inadequately. Covid-19 didn’t do it, and climate
citizens’ assembly, which assimilated it before change is unfolding too slowly to qualify. If and
presenting adjusted recommendations to the when it does happen, however, there will at
municipal council – which approved them least be a blueprint for restoring an idea of
unanimously. Peach describes this approach as demoracy that works for everyone. ❚
a “gold standard” and wants to see it adopted
by the UK government. However, although
local authorities have shown enthusiasm for Laura Spinney is a writer
the Strategy Room model, she has been told based in Paris, France
there is no money to roll it out nationally.
Perhaps it is unsurprising that governments

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 35


Features

36 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


A
S SOMEONE whose running shoes is offering fresh insights not only into how University of California, Berkeley, and a
rarely leave the closet, I am both in awe you can get off the couch and into your co-author of the effort paradox paper.
of, and perplexed by, my endurance running shoes, but also how you can learn Rather than feeling like something is
athlete friends. Particularly hard to grasp more effectively, better empathise with effortful because we hit a physical limit,
is that their love of running marathons or others and even cultivate a more meaningful we may reach this point because we feel
cycling up mountains isn’t in spite of those life. “[It seems] that if we can become more something is effortful. This is a phenomenon
efforts being so gruelling. They enjoy them effort-willing, we can learn to tolerate the that psychologist Samuele Marcora at the
precisely for that reason. aversiveness of effort,” says Inzlicht. University of Bologna, Italy, has demonstrated
Humans, as a species, often think of For the past century, the “law of least numerous times, finding that half-marathoners
ourselves as intrinsically lazy, even if scientists effort” has held that humans, along with run more slowly and footballers cover less
prefer terms like “effort averse”. But we know other animals, prefer to avoid exertion. of the field if they are mentally fatigued,
that putting effort in can be deeply rewarding, Think of a sidewalk that is blocked. Do you due to prolonged cognitive exertion, but
to the extent that we may choose a more take a shortcut around the barriers or follow not physically fatigued, for example.
difficult process even if the outcome remains a signposted detour? Most of us opt for the The resource depletion idea hasn’t held
identical. We also seem to value effort after former. “We have very few laws in psychology,” up very well in terms of explaining our
the fact, taking unreasonable pride in a poorly says cognitive psychologist Gesine Dreisbach tendency to avoid cognitive effort, either.
constructed piece of flat-pack furniture, say, at the University of Regensburg in Germany. While researchers have posited that we avoid
because it was a struggle to assemble. “That one is pretty strong.” mental effort because it uses blood sugar, this
“On the one hand, effort is costly,” says Researchers originally thought that our has been largely debunked; other metabolic
Michael Inzlicht, a psychologist at the effort avoidance evolved to save metabolic arguments remain up for debate.
University of Toronto, Canada. “On the resources, so we steered clear of hitting Along with Inzlicht, Shenhav is exploring
other hand, it looks like we tend to value those a physical limit. Over the tens of millennia a different explanation for why we find
things that we exerted effort for.” In a seminal when our ancestors relied on hunting and effort, including mental effort, off-putting:
2018 paper, he and his colleagues dubbed this gathering, calorie intake was lower (and less its emotional qualities. “One basic property
apparent conflict the “effort paradox”. predictable) than it is today. Wasting energy of effortful tasks is that they lead you to
Since then, psychologists have been could mean life-ending folly. think about what happens if you don’t
SPENCER WILSON

figuring out the origins of the effort paradox But studies in recent decades haven’t borne engage in effort – things like making an
and why some of us struggle with tasks that this out. “Our intuitions weren’t quite right,” error, or disappointing people,” he says.
others might find easy. What they are finding says Amitai Shenhav, a neuroscientist at the And yet it is far too simple to say that the
avoidance of exertion is the whole story.
None of us would be on this planet at all had

The effort
our ancestors not expended a great deal of
physical effort to hunt, gather and survive.
“People do not avoid effort in general,” says
Dreisbach. “They avoid the waste of effort.”
The complications come in the fact that

paradox
how we each define the cost – or benefit –
of effort differs depending on the task, the
requirements and even our own abilities,
personalities and resources.
Although this may seem intuitive, by
thinking deeply about how and why we put
more effort into some activities, researchers
Understanding why we avoid effort, yet also seek are beginning to unravel the effort paradox.
it out, can help us commit to those hard but truly One clue comes from the observation
that we seem to value effort after the fact –
meaningful activities, finds Amanda Ruggeri demonstrated by the so-called IKEA effect.
Aside from those folks for whom a Sunday
spent puzzle-piecing together flat-pack
furniture is the highlight of the week,
many of us would prefer that our bookshelf
instead arrived premade.
If we choose to assemble it ourselves,
we might think it is because the cost of that
effort – including the time and the mental
and physical exertion – is worth the money
saved. But this doesn’t entirely explain what
happens after the process: once it is built,
we often value that IKEA bookshelf more, >

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 37


even preferring it to a better-made, less
amateurish version. Our effort, in other
words, doesn’t just bring the benefit of “If we learn
reduced cost, it adds value in and of itself.
Inzlicht has found this in his research,
to exert effort
too. In a paper he released in January, he in one domain,
and his colleagues asked participants, who
were all undergraduate students, to write an it may expand
opinion-based essay by themselves or using
AI assistance. The students who wrote their
our tolerance
own papers valued them as highly as the
AI-written papers, even though the AI-written
for trying hard
papers were rated objectively better. in another”
The meaning of effort
This may be related to our sense of
meaningfulness. In a related experiment,
participants were asked to do a “Stroop
task”, which involves naming the colours
of words. Inzlicht found that participants Creating “desirable
believed that the more effort a task required, difficulties” can help
the more meaningful it had been, regardless students to learn
of what the task had (or hadn’t) actually
achieved. “The more effort they exert on
that task, the more meaningful they say
this truly meaningless task was,” he says. again, that our decisions about what to do to judge certain actions as being effortful for
It isn’t just our own efforts we value more and when to do it are not just solely based on the person doing them, when this isn’t actually
highly, but other people’s too. In one seminal whether something is more or less effortful. the case, she says. “We think, ‘Wow, are they
study, participants gave higher ratings to a It’s also that we want to be stimulated.” especially motivated?’ Probably not. They just
poem, a painting and a suit of armour if they This isn’t a uniquely human characteristic. don’t mind. They don’t experience the costs.”
thought the creations took more time to Studies going back decades have found that,
produce, even when told that all objects were after prior conditioning, animals – including
created by skilled experts. The idea that the desert locusts, pigeons, starlings, gerbils, Appreciating exertion
quality of an object is directly related to how rats, macaques and chimpanzees – will choose The difference in how we each experience
much work has been put into producing it is to work for food, such as by pressing a lever, effort may even start in the brain. MRI
known as the effort heuristic – and it is often even when identical snacks are available scans, for instance, have revealed that
true that more effort leads to a better result. in a nearby dish. But this is true only under although mental and physical efforts use
Consequently, when we are faced with an certain conditions: as the animals successively different brain systems, one part of the
outcome that we believe came from more get hungrier, or as the lever gets harder to brain – the basal ganglia – seems to be a
effort, our brains take a cognitive shortcut press, there comes a point when they choose shared centre that drives the motivation
to believing that this outcome is superior, the “free” food instead. for both. Shenhav, meanwhile, co-authored
whether or not it is. Similarly, for many of us, something like a recent study in which participants
Yet we might not just value effort, whether building IKEA furniture probably needs to decided how much cognitive and physical
our own or other people’s, retrospectively. hit on the right effort balance, says Inzlicht. effort to put into a task involving foraging
We may also choose a certain, more arduous If the first step in the instruction manual apples from a simulated orchard. While
path because of its extra effort. In another sent us into the woods to chop down a tree, most preferred low-effort options, a
recent study, Inzlicht and his colleagues it is unlikely that many of us would view consistent subset of participants –
ran 12 experiments that asked participants the process as being worth it. between 12.5 and 14.5 per cent – sought
to do either a job that required some effort This relates to the idea of a “flow state”, out both physical and cognitive effort.
(like a Stroop task) or one that needed none which posits that there is a sweet spot when Even if we all have different thresholds
(like watching a computer do this task). it comes to finding effort rewarding – any for how much effort we are willing to put
Most chose the effortful activities over exertion should be just challenging enough in (or feel at all), research points to the idea
the passive ones. to be stimulating, but not so much that it that many of us would benefit from pushing
One reason for this, says Inzlicht, is becomes frustrating. ourselves a little more, if we did so strategically.
that we tend to want to avoid a particularly That sweet spot, researchers say, will look This is particularly well-documented when
unpopular emotion: boredom. “How can different for everyone. Indeed, this variation it comes to learning. In one oft-replicated
people ‘always’ prefer the less effortful thing, between us may help explain the effort type of experiment, for example, a group
yet really dislike boredom? This suggests, paradox in general, says Dreisbach. We tend of students is asked to read a text, then to

38 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


working through a gruelling maths problem He uses the example of teaching a child to play
or finally finishing that copy of Ulysses. It piano. If they learn to push through, despite
can be easy to take these preferences on as not loving it, they may apply that same
an immutable part of our identities. Once perseverance to, say, homework or sports.
a couch potato, always a couch potato.
Or are we? It turns out that if we learn to
exert effort in one domain, it may expand Positive feedback
our tolerance for trying hard in another. Indeed, this can be taught from an early
So, stick it out with Ulysses and you might age, backing up what lots of parents already
just find yourself regularly lacing up your know. “Many kids have, at a young age, this
running shoes too. idea that if something’s effortful, then it’s
As laid out by psychologist Robert probably not right,” says de Bruin. “That’s
Eisenberger in 1992, this is called learned something that you can work on in terms
industriousness: the idea that by positively of feedback – praising putting effort into
reinforcing effort, rather than performance, something, instead of praising the outcome.”
you can encourage someone to work harder. It is also important to teach children
And this benefit seemed to apply to brand-new that if they do something for the first time,
challenges. For instance, Eisenberger’s early it is always going to feel effortful, she notes.
work with Janet Mauriello Leonard at Siena However, this doesn’t mean that they aren’t
RAWPIXEL LTD/ALAMY

College in New York found that, after being good at it or should quit.
rewarded for completing mentally tough tasks, Beyond education, similar ideas can be
students tried harder and for longer on tasks applied to our relationships and how we treat
that were completely unrelated. each other. Empathy, for instance, can feel
Despite being a “brilliant” idea, however, effortful and so be something we try to avoid
“the empirical evidence was not complete”, feeling, as Inzlicht has found in previous
says Inzlicht. “Some of the ideas from that experiments. “Cognitive costs deter people
read it again, before being tested. A second paper were never tested, or least never from sharing in experiences of others, a central
group reads the text just once, then is tested. tested well.” In research published in March, but underappreciated point in the study
Which group do you think remembers the Inzlicht investigated Eisenberger’s idea of empathy,” he and his co-authors wrote in
text better one week later? It is the group that with more modern methods, using a series a 2019 paper. If we recognise that empathy
read it just once. Making the finding more of challenging computer games in which takes effort, and that effort itself can be a
striking, immediately after the experiment, players received rewards according to the good thing, we may be more willing to work
the twice-reading group performs better. amount of effort they put in. The concept on being empathetic, Inzlicht suggests.
One hypothesis for why these gains reverse of learned industriousness held up across If more of us realise the implications of the
is that those who read the text just once feel the distinct types of game. effort paradox, researchers say, we can begin
less prepared for the test, so retrieving the “If I reward your effort in one domain, it’s to reshape our relationship to effort, helping us
information from memory creates what possible that I will also increase your effort- change our habits and improve our well-being.
have been dubbed “desirable difficulties” willingness in a second domain,” says Inzlicht. Exerting effort is connected to meaning and
by cognitive psychologist Robert Bjork at the concept of eudaimonia, a Greek word that
the University of California, Los Angeles. Effort is costly roughly translates to human flourishing, says
“Many students think that if something yet we also seek Inzlicht. It usually isn’t when we do nothing
feels hard, then that’s not conducive to out and value it that we feel our actions are meaningful and
learning,” says Anique de Bruin at Maastricht important, he points out, but when we are
University in the Netherlands, who studies exerting some form of effort.
effort and learning. “For these specific At the very least, this may mean we want
learning strategies, it turns out that even to reframe how we think of our leisure time.
though they feel more effortful, they’re Rather than sitting and passively watching
still helping your learning – and this is television, we might want to pursue a hobby
why they’re helping your learning.” like crafting or puzzling, a physical activity like
In educational settings, helping students climbing or running, or solving a problem that
want to put that extra, tactical effort in is is important for your family or community.
often a matter of explaining “this paradox “Our human limits are far vaster that we
of perceived learning and actual learning”, says think,” says Inzlicht, “but we stop ourselves.” ❚
JULIAN FINNEY/GETTY IMAGES

de Bruin. “It’s all about changing their views


on this relation between effort and learning.”
Many of us can identify an activity or task Amanda Ruggeri is an
that we willingly choose to put effort into. For award-winning journalist
some, that might be running marathons or based in Switzerland
building bookshelves; for others, it might be

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 39


Features Interview

“How did these


black holes get so
large so quickly?”
Recent discoveries have led to new questions about
the origins of supermassive black holes. Astrophysicist
Sophie Koudmani tells Daniel Cossins how
sophisticated galaxy simulations can answer them

S
UPERMASSIVE black holes are, as you Koudmani spoke to New Scientist about why degrees, making it glow brightly – imagine the
might expect, rather large – millions and supermassive black holes are so fascinating, intense orange-white glow of molten metal,
sometimes billions of times as massive the joy of discovering surprises in the early but far hotter and more luminous. But this
as the sun. They lurk at the centre of all large universe that throw up new questions, and energy doesn’t just stay near the black hole.
galaxies, including our Milky Way, shaping the how ambitious computer simulations can It is propelled outward in powerful jets and
growth of these cosmic structures. And yet we help us finally make sense of them. winds, travelling to the galaxy’s outer edges.
can say precious little for certain about Normally, stars form when galactic gas
how they form and why they grow so big. Daniel Cossins: What is so interesting about clumps together and collapses into dense
These mysteries have come into sharper supermassive black holes? spheres. But the fierce radiation and outflows
focus in recent years thanks to the James Webb Sophie Koudmani: What I really like about from the supermassive black hole blow apart
Space Telescope (JWST), which has peered back astrophysics is that it brings together all the these gas clouds, preventing them from
in deep time to spot a surprising abundance of different disciplines of physics but under collapsing into stars. It is this interplay
supermassive black holes in the early universe. extreme conditions, and that is especially between the supermassive black hole and
Intriguingly, it seems that just a few hundred true of supermassive black holes. We’re talking its host galaxy that drives the evolution of
million years after the big bang brought our about extremely dense objects here, where a galaxies, shaping their gas structure and stellar
universe into being, the cosmos already huge amount of mass – at least 100,000 times populations. And this is something we see in
contained black holes that were far too the mass of the sun – is concentrated in a simulations. The only way to get galaxies in
hefty to make sense under our current relatively small space at the centre of every the computer that look like the ones we can
models of how the cosmos evolved. There large galaxy. So there’s an incredibly rich set see is to include a supermassive black hole.
simply hadn’t been enough time for of physics associated with supermassive black
anything that enormous to form. holes, which are really the engines of galaxies. What are the big mysteries about these
Sophie Koudmani, an astrophysicist at cosmic giants?
the University of Cambridge, is among those How exactly do supermassive black holes The two big questions are how they formed
trying to solve this conundrum. She uses shape galaxies? and how they became so big so quickly in the
supercomputer simulations to model galaxies As gas spirals towards a supermassive black early universe. We can start with the second
and supermassive black holes in the early hole, it forms a flattened, disc-like structure question, which has really come to the fore
universe, testing ideas about their origins called an accretion disc. The immense thanks to discoveries made by the James
BECKY GILL

and growth and even predicting what we gravitational forces and friction cause the Webb Space Telescope. JWST has opened a
should be looking for in future observations. gas in the disc to heat up to millions of whole new window into the early universe >

40 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 41
in the past few years, because it is able to new questions and we are developing new
capture light from the very distant reaches simulations that we hope can tackle them.
of the observable universe, which has travelled
to us from the very early universe. And we can Why are computer simulations so important?
now see supermassive black holes as they If you have an observation of a galaxy, you only
were when the universe was just 500 million see a snapshot, whereas with computer models
years old – just a fraction of its current age. we can trace it from its birth to its present state.
The discovery that these early supermassive We get the full picture. Importantly, we can
black holes can get so big so soon has been also use our simulations to test theories that
nothing short of mesmerising. It is an exciting cannot be tested with current observations
moment because these early-universe and make predictions that we can then go

VADZIM SADOUSKI/ALAMY
supermassive black holes are appearing in out and test with future observations.
much lower-mass galaxies than expected. We have a few scenarios in mind for how
What is particularly exciting is these supermassive black holes can form, and these
discoveries open up a host of new questions. will have different signatures in the early
How did these black holes grow so large so universe. For example, we can say that if
quickly? What conditions could have led to supermassive black holes formed in a certain
their formation in such small, early galaxies? The James Webb Space way, then an X-ray telescope would expect to
The problem is that we would expect smaller Telescope has spotted see a certain thing. In astrophysics, it’s very
black holes to be the seeds of supermassive several surprisingly hard to do experiments because you can’t
black holes, but it’s very, very difficult for them large supermassive rearrange the galaxies in the sky. But you
to grow so big in the timescales needed. So black holes in the can rearrange them in the computer and
this really shows that we don’t understand early universe then see what impact different assumptions
supermassive black hole growth very well: about supermassive black holes have.
how the gas actually gets funnelled towards
the centre and allows the black hole to grow How do these simulations work?
so rapidly, especially in small galaxies. You can think of it like a galaxy in a box, where
we can simulate the galaxy from its birth not
You say that we expect smaller black holes to be
the seeds for the creation of supermassive black
holes, but is that the only way for them to form?
That remains a major open question, and we
have several possibilities. Some people say that
because we see these supermassive black holes
so early on, they must have formed from the
direct collapse of massive gas clouds, which
would allow for them to start off quite massive.
Others say you could start with a different
formation channel that produces a lower-mass
black hole that then grows very rapidly, even
if we’re not sure how. Here, the seed for the
supermassive black hole could be the
remnants of the first generation of stars,
which were a lot more massive than today’s
stars and a lot more short-lived. Or it could
be the extremely dense star clusters found
at the cores of many galaxies, including our
Milky Way, where runaway collisions create
a supermassive star that collapses to become
the seed of a supermassive black hole.
The ongoing controversy is whether the
discovery of numerous large supermassive
black holes in the early universe favours the
heavy seed idea or whether there is still scope
for light seeds, even though these would have
CHANDRA AND JWST

had to grow extremely rapidly. The good thing


is that these surprisingly large early black
holes should help us to tease it all apart. It’s an
exciting time for us, because we have all these

42 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


long after the big bang to the present day.
You start with a few basic ingredients in the
JWST has seen this, what do we need to
tweak in our models of supermassive “Finding early
early universe – gas and dark matter and so black holes to replicate those observations
on – and then you add hydrodynamics to in the results of our simulations”. supermassive
model the gas evolution, and you have There is one idea , for example, that
gravity. This is how you model basic
structure formation, and then you plug
says supermassive black holes actually form
from the collapse of a very early, very massive
black holes
in some assumptions about processes
we are unsure about and run it forward.
star. This would probably be the formation
channel that would form the lowest-mass
has been
Then there are processes that happen
below the scale that you can see in the
supermassive black holes. In that case, you
could use the simulation to try to see, given
mesmerising”
simulation, including most of black hole the observation constraints, whether it is at
physics. That is what makes it so difficult, all possible to reach these black hole masses
because the supermassive black holes are very, very early on. If so, when would the
so tiny compared with the scale of the galaxy star have needed to form and then collapse?
you are simulating. So you need to assume You can narrow it down more and more in
models for how supermassive black hole your simulations until you can start ruling
growth happens and then you feed that back things out.
onto the larger scales that it’s impacting.

EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE COLLABORATION


Given the amount that we don’t know about
How can we use simulations to unravel the supermassive black holes, how accurate can
mysteries of supermassive black holes? these simulations be?
You can run lots of different models for Obviously, the computing capabilities have
how they form and how they grow in your just reached incredible levels, so we can do The first direct image
simulations and compare the results to the much more accurate simulations and across of a supermassive
data we have from JWST. So you can say, “OK, many more scales than we ever could before. black hole, found in
if this model is correct then we should see this Some groups are now able to run hugely the galaxy Messier 87
in JWST data”, or conversely you can say, “OK, impressive simulations that span the scales
from galaxies to the event horizon of a black
hole, the boundary inside which gravity
Astronomers combined is so strong that light cannot escape. These questions about supermassive black
data from the James Ultimately, we want to have simulations that holes are clearly tough to answer. Why is it
Webb Space Telescope encode all the information at every scale, from so important to get to the bottom of them?
and the Chandra X-ray the cosmic web, which stretches across billions I would say that everything in our universe
Observatory to detect the of light years, down to the event horizon. We is connected. The detail of the astrophysics
glow of a supermassive want to feed the laws of physics in, along with of supermassive black holes and galaxy
black hole in galaxy UHZ1 our assumptions about supermassive black evolution obviously has an impact on
just 470 million years holes, and watch the entire universe evolve. cosmology, which seeks to explain the
after the big bang That is beyond us at the moment, and that evolution of the universe as a whole.
challenge is at the heart of my work. Cosmology has now entered this
high-precision era, where if we are
How has the relationship between simulations to reconcile conflicting observations
and observations changed in recent years? and stress test our best model of how
Simulations have gone from being tools we the universe evolved, known as the
primarily use to interpret observations to standard model of cosmology, then
being instrumental in making predictions we really do need to include
that drive observational discoveries. It’s a supermassive black holes.
profound change and it’s really pushing the I really think that before we develop
Hear more from Sophie boundaries of our understanding of galaxy more exotic answers to some of these
Koudmani at this year’s formation and evolution, which remains puzzles, as tempting as that may be, we
New Scientist Live. On one of these major unsolved challenges need to fully understand galaxies and
12 October, she will discuss in astrophysics. supermassive black holes. Without that,
how supercomputer When JWST starts getting observations we cannot properly grasp how our universe
simulations help us solve the mystery from even earlier times in the universe’s has come to be what we see today. ❚
of the origins of how supermassive history, we will be able to settle this question
black holes formed in the early universe. of how supermassive black holes form and Daniel Cossins is head of
For more information, visit grow in conjunction with simulations that features at New Scientist
newscientist.com/nslmag predict the expected population at these times
depending on different seeding models.

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 43


The back pages
Puzzles Almost the last word Tom Gauld for Feedback Twisteddoodles
Try our crossword, How long would New Scientist Making chickens for New Scientist
quick quiz and tinned food be edible A cartoonist’s take blush and the entropy Picturing the lighter
logic puzzle p45 post-apocalypse? p46 on the world p47 of tourism p48 side of life p48

Dear David

Feeling zesty
Apathy can overcome many of us – even our advice columnist,
David Robson. Here are some ways to regain your lust for life

MANY of us may face the odd


day of apathy, but what should
we do when those listless feelings
linger for weeks on end?
This month, I was moved to
hear from a reader who fears he
has lost his “zest”. “I would once
wake up excited by the day ahead,”
he tells us. “Now I fail to engage
David Robson is an award- with anything.” It may feel hard
winning science writer to fight this emotional inertia,
and author of The Laws of but the scientific literature offers
Connection: 13 social strategies some tips to nudge ourselves
that will transform your life out of these ruts.
It is only recently that
Resources

JONATHAN GOLDBERG/ALAMY
researchers started studying
Everyday acts of kindness zest as a psychological construct.
can be a great way to escape According to one measure,
a rut. You can find a list of people are asked to rate – on a
ideas that might inspire scale of 1 (not at all like me) to 5
generous behaviour at (very much like me) – statements
randomactsofkindness.org/ such as “I look forward to each
the-kindness-blog/2943-50- new day” and “I want to fully opportunities to seek novel a 10-week programme rolled
kindness-ideas-for-random- participate in life, not just view experiences and learn new out by Avondale University
acts-of-kindness-day it from the sidelines”. skills. Alternatively, we may find College in Cooranbong, Australia.
Losing one’s zest is often a sign we have been placing too much The participants were given
of depression – and if it coincides importance on a single element of daily and weekly challenges,
with other symptoms, such as life, such as work, only to find that such as performing a random
altered sleep, disordered eating it can never offer the fulfilment we act of kindness, witnessing a
or suicidal ideation, it is vital crave. (I have certainly been there.) sunrise, spending an evening
to seek professional help. In either case, one potential by firelight or taking a digital
It is perfectly possible to means of restoring our verve is sabbath. By the end of the
experience its absence without to explore an unfamiliar activity. programme, participants reported
Dear David, an evidence- a clinical diagnosis, however. We This may be a different sport, higher levels of flourishing,
based advice column, appears may feel we are stagnating rather a social commitment like which included increases in
monthly. Drop David a line than flourishing – an unhappy volunteering (pictured) or an engagement and optimism.
with your social dilemmas at state of being that deserves intellectual pursuit like stargazing. We can’t expect instant
davidrobson.me/contact. He attention in its own right. The important thing is to step miracles. Give ourselves time,
will be talking about the laws There are many possible outside our comfort zone and however, and the weakest flicker
of social connection at New causes for our ennui. According embrace the challenge of the new. of enthusiasm may transform
Scientist Live on 13 October: to research, we need a sense Alternatively, we may look into a new lust for life. ❚
newscientist.com/nslmag of “self-expansion” to remain to incorporate small well-being
happy in life. Once we become boosts into our day-to-day These articles are
Next week settled into adult life, many of routines. This was the philosophy posted each week at
Stargazing at home us don’t give ourselves enough behind the Live More Project, newscientist.com/maker

44 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


The back pages Puzzles

Quick crossword #168 Set by Richard Smyth Quick quiz #272


set by Bethan Ackerley
     
Scribble 1 What name is given to the narrowing of a
  zone bodily passage or orifice, e.g. the spinal canal?

2 In the history of spaceflight, the statement


 
that NASA’s flight control must be “tough
and competent” is known as what?

3 Which of the following isn’t a pterosaur:


 
Archaeopteryx lithographica, Quetzalcoatlus
northropi or Dimorphodon macronyx?

   4 Which gas forms about 78 per cent


 
of Earth’s atmosphere?

    5 What was the first cancer-causing


virus to be identified?

  Answers on page 47

 
Answers and BrainTwister
the next cryptic set by Paul Taylor
crossword #40 There are four lights
next week
A machine has four lights labelled A to D,
one of which is lit at any time. It also has
ACROSS DOWN a red button and a blue button. Pressing a
7 New World stork (6) 1 Muscle weakness (7) button changes which light is on according
8 Outside influence; trigger (8) 2 Psychological strategy (4,4) to the arrows shown. (An arrow from a letter
9 Swinging weight (8) 3 Central parts (of atoms, perhaps) (6) to itself means the light doesn’t change
10 Ungulate toes (6) 4 Nocturnal heathland bird (8) when that button is pressed.)
11 Ascorbic acid (7,1) 5 Number puzzle popularised
12 19 Downs of energy (6) globally by Wayne Gould (6)
13 Hexagonal structure of 6 Less loud (7)
the compound C₆H₆ (7,4) 8 Silicon, for example (13)
18 Increases the speed – 14 Rigid airship (8)
of an engine, perhaps (4,2) 15 Small worm (8)
20 Last (8) 16 Glenn ___ , US chemist (7)
22 >90 degrees (6) 17 Demonstrate elasticity (7)
23 Sixth prime number (8) 19 K, s or m, say (2,4)
24 ___ sign, hardening of 21 Fractions of around 0.33 (6)
certain lymph nodes (8) If light D is lit, how many different ways
25 Take away (6) are there to press exactly three buttons
and end up with A lit?

If the last button pressed was blue,


what light cannot be lit?

If you can’t see the lights, what sequence


of three buttons could you press to
guarantee that either A or D is lit?

What sequence of five button presses


Our crosswords are now solvable online guarantees that light A is lit?
newscientist.com/crosswords
Solution next week

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 45


The back pages Almost the last word

Why does snoring tend not to


In a tin can
wake the snorer, but is highly
In a post-apocalyptic but non- disturbing for their bedfellow?
nuclear world, how long would
canned food remain edible? Will Higgs
Gilsland, Northumberland, UK
Pat French While hiking in north-east
Longdon-upon-Tern, Shropshire, UK Greenland in the 1980s, I came
It depends on the can, the food across tinned food left by
in question and the method of prospectors searching for a site
storage before, during and after for a lead mine. The Blyklippen
the apocalypse. Reactions can mine opened in 1956, so the food
occur between substances within was presumably older than that.
the tin, whether that is between We ate the contents of a few
the food contents or with the tin’s tins stored in a hut without ill
inner surface. Canned sardines effect. I also found a crate of tins
in brine are more likely to degrade of sweetened condensed milk

URBAZON/GETTY IMAGES
due to chemical reactions within lying out in the open. Their
the food than, say, canned peanut bottoms had rusted away, but
butter powder or sardines in oil. I can assure you the stuff at the
Food cans are made of different top was perfectly edible!
alloys and other materials and
have different internal coatings. This week’s new questions A different view
The coating is often specific to the
food contained and is sufficient Fast asleep Why is it that people who snore loudly easily Do black holes look the
for the intended shelf life with a wake others, but rarely themselves? Ben Walsh, London, UK same from any angle?
good margin for safety. Famously,
members of John Franklin’s Arctic How brainy? If human brains could be made larger, how Ron Dippold
expedition in 1845 seem to have much smarter could we become? And is there a practical San Diego, California, US
been seriously affected by lead limit to brain size? Ray Carnally, Christchurch, Dorset, UK In theory, yes; in practice, no.
poisoning from the solder in their First let’s distinguish the parts
unlined tins of provisions at a of a black hole. In the centre is
time when canning was poorly was canned over a century ago, odour, so the smell of canned food the singularity, where all physics
understood (see page 15 for new including cans abandoned shouldn’t be used as a reliable breaks down because the maths
findings about the expedition). by Antarctic explorer Ernest guide that it is safe to eat. goes to infinity. The part we
The way in which cans are Shackleton. Although safe Honey has an indefinite shelf can “see” is the event horizon,
stored will affect the contents and to eat, it had lost much of its life if properly sealed: 3000-year- where almost no light can escape
the container. Mechanical damage flavour and nutritional value. old honey from the tomb of King the gravitational pull. We can’t
Canned low-acid foods like Tutankhamun is still edible. Of actually see it, because no light
“Cans abandoned baked beans remain reliably edible course, we wouldn’t be able to except faint Hawking radiation
over a century ago for up to five years, while high-acid survive on honey alone. can escape to hit your retina, but
foods like fruit, tomatoes and Dehydrating, freeze-drying we can tell where we stop seeing
by Ernest Shackleton
pickles shouldn’t be left in cans for and vacuum sealing are other things – the central shadow.
have been tested by longer than one-and-a-half years. methods of extending the life Then there is the photon sphere,
scientists and found Cool, dark and dry environments of food. Freezing food depends which is where light that comes
to be safe to eat” extend the shelf life of food, even on a power supply or living in in at just the right angle goes into
when it is canned. a very cold place, which would tight orbit around the black hole. It
and temperature extremes will Damage to the can, like dents introduce its own survival issues. eventually falls in or escapes, and
also exacerbate can failure and or rust, reduces the shelf life of Many so-called preppers we see the escaping light as a bright
food deterioration. the food inside. Indeed, such store food in a cool, dark and ring around the central shadow.
Should an apocalypse typical cans should be discarded as they low-humidity environment. The biggest part of the black
of the Hollywood film industry can harbour botulism if the seal They label food and rotate their hole environment is the accretion
ever happen, though, none of is compromised. Bacteria like stocks so they always consume disc, which is all the matter it has
this will matter because all our Clostridium botulinum – the cause the oldest food first, before it sucked up rotating in a giant disc
surviving tinned food is likely to of botulism – don’t produce an exceeds its shelf life. around it. The extreme forces in
be consumed within the first year. this region cause the disc to glow.
Want to send us a question or answer? Some of the accretion disc is
Mike Follows Email us at lastword@newscientist.com doomed to spiral in and be eaten,
Sutton Coldfield, West Midlands, UK Questions should be about everyday science phenomena but some of it will be blown out
Scientists have tested food that Full terms and conditions at newscientist.com/lw-terms in massive relativistic jets at the

46 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024


Tom Gauld Answers
for New Scientist
Quick quiz #272
Answers
1 Stenosis
2 The Kranz dictum
3 Archaeopteryx lithographica
4 Nitrogen
5 Epstein-Barr virus

Cryptic crossword
#145 Answers
ACROSS 1 Pirate, 4 Avatar,
9 Sputnik, 10 Mauve, 11 Album,
12 Methane, 13 Trouser suit,
18 Cadmium, 20 Ratel,
22 L-dopa, 23 Lab coat,
24 Deduct, 25 Astern

DOWN 1 Pascal, 2 Rhumb,


3 Tinamou, 5 Vomit, 6 Tsunami,
7 Riegel, 8 Skimmed milk,
14 Redwood, 15 Strobes,
16 Scaled, 17 Gluten,
19 Isaac, 21 Trope
black hole’s poles – these jets “Kip Thorne made but light can’t scatter off the
can approach light speed and simulations of the surface of a black hole’s event
be light years long!
optical effects for horizon. The only optical clue to #39 Game of logic
So, the short answer is that
observers orbiting
the presence of a black hole is its Solution
the accretion disc and relativistic gravitational lensing effect on
jets make a black hole look very a black hole for the light from matter falling into the
different from different directions. film Interstellar” hole, heating up and emitting light
But what if we ignore them while still outside the horizon,
and just look at the event horizon? dense enough to become a or light from background stars
The (unproven) “no-hair theorem” singularity would normally on the other side of the sky to the
posits that the only things you have an event horizon hiding it. observer looking towards the hole.
can measure about a black hole But it is theorised that something According to theory, an event
after it forms are its mass, its spinning fast enough could shrink horizon’s surface is perfectly
electric charge and its angular its event horizon to the point that uniform and smooth, so if the
momentum, or spin. The mass the singularity was exposed. distribution of matter and stars is
and charge are the same from all So practically, you can always uniform in all directions outside
directions, but the spin can be tell where you are in relation to the horizon, then the optical A red counter in the top right
measured – it is what determines a wild black hole. But at some observations would be the interior section (first image)
where the accretion disc is and point, it might be possible to make same for all directions around the shows that some cakes are new
which direction it rotates. If you a small, spin-less black hole in a black hole. However, if the stars and wholesome, but not nice.
somehow had a black hole with lab that would be as symmetrical aren’t uniformly placed, then
no spin, it would appear the same as your control over it allowed. visual observations will change Some old cakes that aren’t nice or
from all directions. But as soon as we orbit the hole. wholesome can be represented by
as any matter falls in, it imparts Nick Canning Theoretical physicist Kip a red counter in the bottom right
spin, so it is very hard to have a Coleraine, County Londonderry, UK Thorne made simulations of exterior section (second image).
black hole with zero spin. First clarify what you mean by the optical effects for observers
What about a naked singularity, “the look” of a black hole. It isn’t orbiting a black hole for the The red counter (last image) shows
with no event horizon covering it? the same sort of thing as “the film Interstellar. These agree some cakes are wholesome, nice
This continues to be a hot topic look” of Earth’s globe seen with the later images of the and new. The grey counters show
of debate. No naked singularity from space. That involves light supermassive black hole at no wholesome cakes are not nice.
has ever been seen and anything scattering off the planet’s surface, the Milky Way’s centre. ❚

5 October 2024 | New Scientist | 47


The back pages Feedback

Blushing chickens Twisteddoodles for New Scientist Back in 2000, a collaboration


between physicists in Italy, Brazil
People — humans — blush. Chickens and the US tried to make sense of
aren’t entirely inhuman in that a different and borderline-unruly
they, too, show emotions on their aspect of the concept of entropy
facial skin. Delphine Soulet at the increase. They published a paper
University of Tours, France, and called “The rate of entropy
colleagues have explored how skin increase at the edge of chaos”.
redness might be a reliable indicator Tourism professionals both do
of “the affective states of hens”. and don’t like tourism to happen
Reader Frédéric Darboux brought at the edge of chaos: they do for
the project to Feedback’s attention. the excitement, but don’t for the
This is the story, to the extent danger, the danger being both
it is a story, of six hens in a wooded corporeal and financial. Too much
outdoor range covered with grass. entropy over too short a period
They had free access to a hen could intensify both kinds of danger.
house and to as much water A press release about the new
and feed as they wanted, tourism research does note that
whenever they wanted it. “Entropy is classified as the general
This is a story, also, that was trend of the universe towards death
essentially a reality TV programme. and disorder”. But other than that,
The chickens were given no script the press release accentuates the
to follow. But they were placed in positive. It says: “For the first time,
situations that almost forced them an interdisciplinary study has
to react in ways that would induce applied the theory of entropy to
compelling video viewing. tourism, finding that travel could
The adventure stretched over have positive health benefits,
three consecutive summer weeks. including slowing down the
Among the main events: a “Capture signs of ageing.”
Test” that involved “individual hens Got a story for Feedback? In theory – in this theory –
being caught by the experimenter, Send it to feedback@newscientist.com people might believe that
who restrained the wings with or New Scientist, 9 Derry Street, London, W8 5HY principles of physics, adroitly
two hands”. The hens also Consideration of items sent in the post will be delayed deployed, can help a person delay
found themselves involved in a seeing wrinkles. Raise this to a
“Rewarding Test” that involved a literary plane, Feedback muses,
glass dish containing mealworms (comb, cheek, ear lobe and wattle)”. Or, for a mildly jolly burst of and it becomes a reminder to
and wood shavings “placed in After analysing the data from melancholy, reach back to 1987 read Madeleine L’Engle’s sci-fi
the middle of the test arena”. the videos, the scientists reached for P. Oswald’s treatise in Journal novel A Wrinkle in Time.
The researchers captured video a conclusion as to when the de Physique, “Dynamics of That book’s plot involves travel.
of “calm states”: resting, preening chickens had blushed most strongly. collapse of a smectic bubble”. That book’s publication was
or feeding. Other footage showed The hens, says the final report, reputedly delayed by publishers’
“exciting and rewarding states”: “exhibited the highest degree of indecision as to whether the story
Tending towards entropy
dustbathing and exposure to facial skin redness in negative was meant for adults or children.
mealworms. Inevitably, there were situations of high arousal”. Physics often gets portrayed as a
also “fear-related states”, most field so abstruse that most people
Pointy reckoning
notably seen in the Capture Test. can’t understand or directly use it.
Eclectically smectic
The colourful data came from a A new study called “The principle A couple more additions
process of “extracting redness from If, somehow, your interests are of entropy increase: A novel view to Feedback’s collection
still frames from hen profiles”. In the eclectic and you are cathectic (but of how tourism influences human of conversation-starting
old days, before digital technology not apoplectic) about exploring health” shows how wrong some titles of research papers.
was available for chicken-emotion words that rhyme with dialectic, people feel that notion might be. “Sword swallowing and its side
research, this might have been try “smectic” – as in the title The researchers write: “The effects” gave incisive knowledge
a matter of subjective artistic of the study “Smectic and soap principle of ‘entropy increase’ is a to subscribers of BMJ in 2006,
appraisal. The 2020s method bubble optofluidic lasers”. universal law describing a natural while “Estimation of the total
removes human emotion from Written by Zala Korenjak and progression from order to disorder. saliva volume produced per day
that aspect of the data gathering. Matjaž Humar in a journal with This paper is innovatively the first in five-year-old children” supplied
Electronic video processing the intriguing name Physical to take the principle as a theoretical some fast and, in some respects,
extracted “the mean red (R), blue Review X, that paper explains basis for assessing how tourism hard numbers to readers of the
(B), and green (G) values for each how it doesn’t take much to make influences human health from Archives of Oral Biology in 1995. ❚
bare skin region of the hen face a soap bubble become a laser. a sociomateriality perspective”. Marc Abrahams

48 | New Scientist | 5 October 2024

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