Presentation Minnesota Artur Sepp
Presentation Minnesota Artur Sepp
Presentation Minnesota Artur Sepp
Artur Sepp
Head Quant, LGT Bank
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Content
1. Applications of stochastic volatility (SV) models for options modeling
2. Cryptocurrency inverse options and inverse measures
3. Log-normal stochastic volatility model with quadratic drift
4. Closed-form accurate solution for the moment generating function for
the log-normal SV model
5. Roughness of volatility and its impact on auto-correlation
6. Fitting options data for Bitcoin traded on Deribit exchange
References:
• Sepp A and Rakhmonov P (2023) Log-normal Stochastic Volatility
Model with Quadratic Drift, International Journal of Theoretical and Ap-
plied Finance, 2023, 26(8)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/reader/10.1142/S0219024924500031
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Heston model
• Heston model dynamics for price St and variance Vt:
p
dSt = µtStdt + VtStdWt, S0 = S,
p (1)
dVt = κ (θ − Vt) dt + ε VtdZt, V0 = V,
where µt is price drift under P and µt = rt under risk-neutral measure Q
Wt and Zt are Brownian motions with return-volatility correlation ρ
κ is mean-reversion speed
θ is long-run variance
ε is volatility of volatility
• Drawbacks:
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Exp-OU, Bergomi type models
• Drawbacks:
2) The model dynamics are not closed (the functional form of the volatil-
ity process is different) under the change of numeraire so that they cannot
be applied for valuation of inverse options using spot price numeraire
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Log-normal stochastic volatility model
• The dynamics for price St and volatility σt:
(0)
dSt = µtStdt + σtStdWt ,
(3)
(0) (1)
dσt = (κ1 + κ2σt) (θ − σt)dt + βσtdWt + εσtdWt ,
(0) (1)
Wt and Wt are uncorrelated Brownian motions
β ∈ R is the volatility beta to price changes
ε ∈ R+ is residual volatility-of-volatility
θ ∈ R+ is the mean level of the volatility
κ1 + κ2σt is the mean-reversion speed is linear function of the volatility
• The model combines the best of the two worlds: semi-analytic solution
for vanilla options and easy to implement numerically
1) The model can be applied for assets with positive return-volatility
correlation (if κ2 > max{0, β})
2) The model is closed under change of numeraire so that can be applied
for valuation of inverse options
• Classic results do not apply due to super-linear drift in SDE for σt
• Given a set of put and call option prices, we compute fair strikes of
variance swaps
2 2 X δK X δK
Kvarswap (T ) = P ut(T, K) + Call(T, K)
2 2
T K<F (T )
K K≥F (T )
K
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Model Dynamics consistent with Forward Variance II
ηn1{t∈(Tn−1,Tn]}
X
η(t) =
n
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Assets with positive volatility return correlations
Many assets have positive implied Black-Scholes volatility skews
Volatilities of out-of-the-money calls are higher than volatilities of out-
of-the-money puts
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Vanilla and inverse options
• Pay-offs of vanilla call and put are settled in cash at expiry time T :
ucall(ST ) = max {ST − K, 0} , uput(ST ) = max {K − ST , 0} .
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Valuation under MMA and inverse measures
nR o
T
• By choosing money market account (MMA) M (T ), M (T ) = exp t r(s)ds ,
as a numéraire, we consider an equivalent martingale measure Q, induced
by M , where r(t) is risk-free rate.
• The value function of inverse option, denoted by Ũ (t, S), with the payoff
paid in units of S, equals to
" #
1
Ũ (t, S) = StẼ u(ST )| Ft , (7)
ST
where expectation Ẽ is taken under the inverse martingale measure Q̃.
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Equivalence of MMA and inverse measures
• Are values of the vanilla option under the MMA measure and of inverse
option under the inverse measure equal?
Theorem 2. Assume a complete market and that both the MMA measure
Q and the inverse measure Q̃ are equivalent martingale measures. Then
the values of options under the MMA measure in Eq (6) and under the
inverse measure are in Eq (7) satisfy
" # " #
1 1
M (t)E u(ST )| Ft = StẼ u(ST ) Ft . (8)
M (T ) ST
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Importance of quadratic drift for Log-normal SV model
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Conventional SV models are ill-defined when return-volatility cor-
relation is positive
• Heston model may not have a stationary distribution of the variance
when κ − ρϑ < 0
• Exp-OU SV model is not arbitrage-free for positive return-vol correlation
• Subplot (A) shows the admissible region for parameters (ρ, ϑ) of Heston
model where Feller condition is satisfied and the stationary distribution
exists under the inverse measure using κ = 1, θ = 1
• Subplot (B) shows the admissible region parameters (ρ, ϑ) of Exp-OU SV
model for the martingale property under the MMA and inverse measures
using κ = 1, θ = 1
• Both conditions are satisfied in the area with overlapping hatches
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Properties of the log-normal volatility process
• We consider the SDE of volatility process in model dynamics in Eq (3)
represented as follows
(∗)
dσt = (κ1 + κ2σt) (θ − σt)dt + ϑσtdWt , σ0 = σ (9)
(∗)
where Wt is a standard Brownian motion
ϑ2 = β 2 + ε2 is the total variance of volatility.
• Notice that the process σt is not a polynomial diffusion because the
drift coefficient is a second-order polynomial in σt (using Lemma 2.2 in
Filipovic and Larsson (2016))
Lemma 1. Dynamics of volatility in Eq (3) under the inverse measure Q̃
f (0) + εσ dW
f (1).
2
dσt = κ1θ − (κ1 − κ2θ) σt − (κ2 − β ) σt dt + βσtdW t t t
Rt
− 0 r(t′ )dt′
Using zero-drift stochastic driver Zt, Zt = e St, the MMA measure
Q and the inverse measure Q̃ are related by the density process by
h i
Λt = Et dQ̃/dQ = Zt/Z0.
Theorem 4. Measures Q and Q̃ are equivalent if and only if κ2 ≥ β.
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Steady state distribution of the volatility
• The steady state distribution is given by the Generalized Inverse Gaus-
sian distribution (Jorgensen (1982))
q
G(σ) = cσ η−1 exp − + bσ , σ>0 (10)
σ
• Subplot (A) shows the steady state PDF of the volatility computed
using Eq (10) with fixed κ1 = 4 and κ2 = {0, 4, 8}.
• Subplot (B) and (C) show the skeweness of the volatility and the excess
kurtosis of the unconditional returns distribution , respectively, both as
functions of κ2, for the three choices of κ1 = 1, 4, 8.
Other model parameters are fixed to θ = 1 and ϑ = 1.5.
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Moments of Volatility Process, I
(n)
• By applying Itô’s lemma for mt , we obtain
(n) (∗
dmt = −κYt − κ2Yt nY n−1dt+c(n) (Yt + θ)2 Y n−2dt+ϑ (Yt + θ) nY n−1dWt
2
(n) 1 ϑ2 n(n − 1)
with m0 = Y0n and c(n) = 2
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Moments of Volatility Process, II
Proposition 1. [Moments of Volatility Process] The solution to moments,
can be presented as a matrix equation for an infinite-dimensional vector:
∂τ M (0,∞)(τ ) = Λ(0,∞)M (0,∞)(τ ),
where ∂τ is the derivative w.r.t. τ and
T
M (0,∞) (0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
(τ ) = m , m , m , m , m , ... , M (0,∞) (0) = 1, Y0, Y02, Y03, Y0
0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
0
−κ −κ2 0 0 0 ...
c(2)θ 2 2c(2)θ (c(2) − 2κ) −2κ2
(0,∞) 0 0 ...
Λ = .
0
c(3)θ2 2c(3)θ (c(3) − 3κ) −3κ2 0 ...
0 0 c(4)θ2 2c(4)θ (c(4) − 4κ) −4κ2 ...
...
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Moments of Volatility Process, III
• An approximate solution to ODE system is obtained using a truncation
by fixing the number of terms to k∗ and using a finite dimensional vector
of m-th moments, m = 1, ..., k∗ with analytic solution
(1,k ∗) n
(1,k ∗) o (1,k ∗)
(1,k ∗ ) −1 n
(1,k ∗) o (k ∗)
M (τ ) = expm Λ t ·M (0)+ Λ · expm Λ t −I
where expm() is the matrix exponent, · and −1 are the matrix product
∗
and inverse, respectively, and I (k ) is k∗ × k∗ identity matrix.
• Subplot (A) and (B): The first four moments of mean-adjusted volatility
computed with the truncation order k∗ = 4 and k∗ = 8 as functions of τ .
Dots and error bars denote the estimate and 95% confidence interval,
respectively, computed using MC simulations of model dynamics.
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Model Dynamics under MMA and Inverse Measures
Corollary 2 (Dynamics under the inverse measure Q̃). The joint dynamics
of log-price Xt, the mean-adjusted volatility process Yt, and the QV It:
1 2 f (0), X = X,
dXt = η (t) (Yt + θ)2 dt + (Yt + θ) η(t)dW t 0
2
f (0) + ε (Y + θ ) dW
f (1), Y = σ − θ,
2
dYt = λ̃ − κ̃Yt − κ̃2Yt dt + β (Yt + θ) dW t t t 0 0
dIt = η 2(t) (Yt + θ)2 dt, I0 = I.
where λ̃ = βθ2η(t), κ̃ = κ1 − κ2θ + 2(κ2 − βη(t))θ, κ̃2 = κ2 − βη(t)
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Joint Valuation Equation under MMA and Inverse measures
• State variables: Xt = ln St, Yt = σt − θ, It = 0t σt2dt
R
• Introduce MGF for state variables (Xt, It, Yt) with complex-valued trans-
form parameters Φ, Ψ, Θ ∈ C:
EQ[e−ΦXτ −ΨIτ −ΘYτ | F ], p=1
t
G(τ, Φ, Ψ, Θ; p) = (13)
ẼQ̃[e−ΦXτ −ΨIτ −ΘYτ | F ], p = −1
t
G(τ, X; Φ; p = 1) = E[e−ΦXτ X0 = X]
exists for ΦR ∈ (−1, 0), if Zτ is a martingale under the MMA measure.
By Theorem 3 1), the necessary condition is κ2 ≥ β.
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Affine expansion for closed-form solution
with M (k), L(k) and H (k) infinite dimensional (very) sparse matrices
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Approximation for MGF using second-order affine expansion
Corollary 3. [Second-order affine approximation for the MGF (13)] is
obtained using the leading term E [4]:
G(τ, Φ, Ψ, Θ; p) = E [4](τ, Φ, Ψ, Θ; p) (17)
The approximation error is estimated using remainder R[4]
Theorem 9. E [4] is consistent with first and second moments of (X, Y, I).
• Illustration of PDFs computed by inversion of the first E [2] and second
order E [4] compared to Monte-Carlo histogram (blue) for τ = 1
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Extension to rough dynamics (Sepp-Rakhmonov-Motuzenko (2024)
in progress)
• We consider dynamics driven by log-normal Volterra SV
(0)
dSt = r(t)Stdt + η(t)σtStdWt ,
Z t
(0) (1)
σt = σ0 + K(t − s) (κ1 + κ2σs)(θ − σs)ds + βσs dWs + εσs dWs
0
(18)
where W (0), W (1) are uncorrelated Brownian motions
η(t) is volatility backbone to fit to the term structure of variance swaps
Kernel K : R+ → R+ is a fractional kernel
1 α−1 1
K(t) = t , α∈ ,1 (19)
Γ(α) 2
• Dynamics (18) are closed (have the same functional form) under nu-
meraire changes and under the inverse measure
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Extension to rough dynamics II
• Analytic/numerical solution for expected quadratic variance for
κ2 = 0 / κ2 > 0 for fitting volatility backbone η(t)
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Rough dynamics and volatility auto-correlation
• Auto-correlation of the volatility measures the “memory” or the longevity
of periods with high volatility
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Remarks on model calibration to time series data of option prices
• One-factor Log-normal SV model is sufficient enough for reproducing
the empirical features of ACF for daily data
• When fitting model parameters to options, it is hard to estimate the
volatility mean-reversion parameters consistently because a higher value of
mean reversion requires higher values of model correlation and convexity
and vice versa
• Instead, we estimate the mean-reversion to the empirical ACF and keep
it fixed when fitting model to options data
• There is a small correction in mean-reversion parameters between P and
Q measures due to risk-premia, which we ignore for time being
• Fitted parameters of steady-state distribution of volatility under Log-
normal SV model
VIX MOVE OVX BTC
θ 0.20 0.91 0.39 0.71
κ1 1.29 0.10 2.78 2.21
κ2 1.93 0.41 2.24 2.18
ε 0.72 0.36 0.83 0.92
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Calibration of model parameters to Bitcoin implied volatilities
• Analytic solution for MGF provides Fourier-based formulas (Lewis (2000)
and Lipton (2001) for vanilla options of extended to inverse options
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Analytic solution matches Monte-Carlo simulations
• Compute model implied volatilities under MMA measure (MMA) and
inverse measure (Inverse) for maturity slices used in model calibration
• Dashed lines M C − 0.95ci and M C + 0.95ci are MC 95% CI
• MSE is the mean squared error between model and MC vols
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Time series of model params fitted to short-dated BTC options
In 2022 and 2023, the model error (the average difference between market
and model implied volatility) became less than 1% most of the times
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Python library
Python implementation https://github.com/ArturSepp/StochVolModels
See stochvolmodels/examples/run_lognormal_sv_pricer
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Conclusions
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Further reading
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Disclosure
These views and discussion are not an investment advice in any possible
form.
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