FACTORS BEHIND GLOBAL WARMING

Mir Ibrahim Misbah (ibrahim_misbah@live.com)

ABSTRACT

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to describe the main factors that are responsible for

global warming.

Methodology: A questionnaire survey was taken from highly qualified faculty of

different universities and then it was interpreted by doing regression analysis and frequency

distribution of the data.

Findings: Findings of this paper illustrate the main factor responsible for global warming

is carbon dioxide gases emission from different activities such as fossil fuel burning,

deforestation, green house activity, which acts as trapping blanket for heat in the atmosphere

which causes rise in the global mean temperature.

Practical Implications: This paper can be helpful for those people who are interested in

climate change study and want to enhance their knowledge related to our environment.

Keywords: Global warming, climate change, green house gases, deforestation, volcanic

eruption, ozone layer depletion.

Mir Ibrahim Misbah – Undergraduate student – Earth and Environmental Sciences Department- Bahria

University Karachi Campus

1. INTRODUCTION

Many researchers, scientists and environmentalist are expressing concerns about

changes in the overall climate of earth. Many of the scientists believe that a dangerous

warming is about to take place in the overall. The global climate which is becoming a

problem is referred to as “global warming “. This paper will attempt to reconnoiter this

very issue.

1.1 Problem Background

Since the industrial revolution (from about 1850 to the present) astounding

amounts of greenhouse gases have been compounded into the earth’s atmosphere. This is

primarily due to excessive increased in needs for human and use of fossil fuels for

generating power. Global warming is a main problem of too much carbon dioxide that is

trammeled in the atmosphere, which plays role in trapping heat and warms the planet

resulting in increase in temperature. As we burn fossil fuels for power or cut down and

burn forests to create pastures and plantations, carbon particles combines and overcharges

our atmosphere. Some waste direction and deforestation activities also aggravate the

problems by releasing other potent global warming gases in the atmosphere, such as

methane, aerosols and chlorofluorocarbons. Measurements of the temperature have been

done all over the world, on shore and offshore have revealed that during 20th century the

earth’s surface and sub surface part has warmed up on an average by about 0.6°C.

Changes in climate can result in both natural events and artificial events. During this

period, manmade emissions of green house gases, including carbon dioxide and methane

have increased, largely as a result of burning fossil fuels for energy and migration.
1.2 Problem Statement

Climate change is a term used to describe trends in the earth’s climate. For

example, scientists see that the planet’s average temperature is rising. This affects wind

and ocean currents also the annual amounts of rainfall and snow enrolling. Climate

change affects different parts of the world in different ways. Another term used for

climate change now a days is global warming which refers to the global increase in the

planet’s mean temperature, which acts as a source of changing climate patterns across

the globe. Global warming invokes to an unequal and continuing rise in the average

temperature of earth’s climate system. The earth’s temperature has been rising since

1880. There is some evidence that suggests that the U.S Northeast will be colder at the

poles as it melts and colds, fresh water changes the current near the East coast.

The problem statement “Is global warming mostly caused by human activities”

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The main objectives of this study are

1. To perceive the main factors responsible for global climate change.

2. The main influence that contributes to global warming.

3. To determine the most effective source that is increasing its rate annually.

4. To target those factors that contributes to its source.

1.4 Scope And Limitation Of The Study

The scope of my paper is based on all over globe related to global warming

impacts and its causes. Limitations were at some stages where my research could have

carried some errors regarding questionnaires and surveys.

 1.5 Theoretical Framework

The aim of my research is to describe the framework for a conceptual and

historical process controlling global warming event like; Human changes in the land use

and land cover have changed earth’s reflection. Some processes which often contribute to

allow difference in atmosphere in the places they occur by disforestation, re-forestation,

destructive use of land and urbanity. These impacts have importance entirely, but are

smaller when they are averaged overall. In accession, artificial events have generally

added the number of aerosols particles in the climate. Overall, aerosols generated by

fossil fuel burns have a net cooling effect offsetting about one-third of the total warming

effect associated with human greenhouse gases emission. Reduction in overall aerosols

emissions can therefore lead to more warming. However, targeted reduction in Black

carbon emission can reduce warming.

2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE STUDY

2.1 Literature Review

Joe kinney 2003, in this article researcher tells that global warming is one issue

that has not been understands well enough to prevent its effects on planet earth. Another

issue is that there is democratic government systems useful in protecting society’s from

its diverse effects. Where democracy is used for the interest of populace, but what is the

population directed towards. The main issue is that a single lifetime populace cannot

address the precautions for global warming. It should be studied in depth from early

stages in order to profit the socials welfare from threat of future demolition of planet.

This is why democracy does not apply for adequate means of governing issue related to

social welfares of present century.

 Wallace S. Broecker 2004, Peter Shwartz and Doug Randall presented a very

alarming and risk to health scenario about the adverse short term affects of global

warming. The reason for that is the abrupt climate change due to severe emission of CO2

gas in large quantity which is not possible to stop at once. Ice sheets are melting and

water level is rising due to flood appear in Atlantic Ocean. The affects are to repeat as it

and the consequences would not be too awesome. This whole scenario would not even

take decades it could happen in century.

David J. Tenenbaum 2001, Mark Jacobson as associate professor and an

environmental engineering at California’s University Stanford have done some research

in global warming by using a computer model and has come to a conclusion that soot that

is the black colloidal substance consisting wholly or principally of amorphous carbon is

the major factor contributing in global warming that the green houses gases emission.

How it affects as soot affects solar radiations and by combining with solar radiations its

produces more heat in the atmosphere. Another emeritus professor Francis Brethertson

also calls this theory legitimate. Although Soot plays important role in global warming

than CO2 gases emission, it is tractable and also most of the soot is removed by rainfall.

Soot is not only responsible for global warming but also as it combines with other

combustible materials it can cause diseases in life.

American Sociological Association Fall 2004, in this article researcher studys that

the recent box office hit portrays that the world is divested and most concern about the

environment being endangered by global warming, and the also didn’t believed in

greenhouse gases. As now they do they are not well prepared and the government is not
taking any hard actions for it, as the calculations say that the government is most concern

to the economic growth rather than the environment protection.

Jhon F. Cajdwell et.al 1998, this article is a discussion about the articles that was

presented in November 1999 which failed to state the global warming is a fact but why

not global cooling is also a fact. Well as the global warming effects are being seen

nowadays we can say that it is the fact but we should include the presence of global

cooling many scientist have argued on this topic and came to a conclusion that this is a

political effort as most climate scientist does not accept global warming.

J. Hansen et al 2011, this article discusses about the temperature throughout the

world has been given much consideration in it to be important factor of global warming

many recording of temperatures have been taken of years in consideration of increasing

and decreasing. Temperature recorded in 2001 was given the second warmest year. The

global surface air warming has increased from the past 25 years. However the surface and

troposphere warming’s remaining same. The Indian and Pacific oceans were warm but

the Atlantic Ocean is notably warmer and increasing and usually cool condition in

countries like Greenland has also given warmer anomalies. This warming is considered to

be a consequence of green house gasses emission.

Barry D. Solomen et al 1990, the researcher argues about a broad and "balanced"

energy technology research and development (R&D) effort as a prudent response to the

greenhouse effect. We think the way the authors have framed the issue, that is, implying

that an increased R&D investment is our major insurance against global warming,

reflects too narrow a perspective on the basic policy and technological issues. Although
we fully support energy R&D, the fact that currently viable options, especially energy

efficiency and natural gas, are available needs to be more widely recognized; and a

supportive policy environment needs to be established to encourage their use as well as

the use of new technologies produced through R&D .In the area of energy, the authors'

statement that "none of the no fossil energy sources are ready to be substituted

competitively for fossil fuels at the scale necessary to reduce CO2 emissions" incorrectly

implies that there are no currently viable alternatives and that we must wait for R&D,

with its corresponding uncertainties, to bring these technologies to fruition. This slights

the significant contribution of energy efficiency technologies that, in many cases, are

cheaper than fossil fuels. Also neglect the policy framework in which new technologies

must compete. Spending for R&D can be squandered unless a simultaneous effort is

made to support commercialization of promising technologies and to create a "level

playing field" in which new technologies can compete fairly.

Martina Habeck 1990, the researcher discusses about a report published in

London by NEF (New Economic Foundation) elaborates the problem related to global

warming which people are more scared and not by war. The report published by

Environmental refugee has brought these problems into the public arena although many

believe that they must get refugee status but United Nation commission of refugee didn’t

allow that because their budgets were already overstrained. Oxford ecologist Norman

Myers did research on the basis of refugees and believes that global warming will cause

huge upsurge in migration of people. The author of this report believes that if we left this

as a report this will become an abstention of responsibility.

 The Wilson Quaterly 1976, among the scientist the idea that global warming is

occurring and humans are mostly contributing in it. The main cause is that people still

have skepticism about global warming occurrence. The scientist calls this cause of the

media, because the relationship between media and civilians is very strong. According to

some news channel the global warming has not been given importance so people believe

that global warming is not occurring while other news channel gives proper information

so people are well aware of the occurrence of global warming. There are still some

democrats that say, global warming occurrence has not changed whether they have

watched any news channel.

Ola M. Johannesen et al 1996, Dennis Normile, Jhon Walsh from the university

of Illinois and H. Jay Zwalle has research on retreated ice of Arctic and Antarctic and has

come to a conclusion by referring to many others researchers survey of years of data that

polar regions which shows the colder theories are showing the signs of decreasing of ice

sheets in Arctic region than the Antarctic region. The greatest decreasing trends were in

Arctic extent 4.6% out of ice area of 5.8%. Their study indicates decreasing of ice extent

and area from 1978 to 1994. Which they are assuming may be a signal of green house

gases emission.

The American Biology Teacher 1992, the researcher asks anyone about global

warming and you will get as many answers as many environmentalists there are. The

video was made illustrating the diversity by using a 32-page mini-textbook, Climate,

Weather and People. While the wide gamut of opinions presented may be useful in

generating discussion, the program presents them in a dry interview format with recurring
shots of traffic jams, smoke-stacks and computer models of global warming trends. There

are distracting reflections in background windows, computer monitors and bald heads.

The author believes students will learn far more by researching the contradictions in

global weather pre-dictions than by using this program.

Environmental History 2004, in this article researcher studies that as a scientific

problem global warming is dating back from fourier1827 and its origin as a political issue

is recent while the effects of green house gases on global warming were started in 1970

which were also termed as human activities that are causing global warming. The

evolution of climate questions from science to politics have been as a void leading a

damaging perspective to public areas as they are not aware about it. Spencer Warts” The

Discovery of Global Warming” has gone a long way in rectifying this situation but he is

what some less effective in describing to political developments. Swedish Climatologist

Bert Bolin discussion about scientist’s activity after mid 1980 which helped building the

road to the U.N Framework Convention on climate change and the Kyoto Protocol is

more superficial.

Tanya Tillet 2006, the researcher tells that it has been revealed that the

Metrolpolitan areas account for the most green house gases emission and they should be

responsible in the account of it. William J. Clinton with many large countries climate

leadership has launched Clinton Climate Change Initiative. The partnership will take

practical steps in slowing down the global warming. There first objective is to allow

participants to save money on buying and developing energy saving products. Global

warming experts see the CCI’s component as a first integral step in slowing the rate of

global warming. Kristie Ebi an independent consultant of UN agencies has sees

 opportunities in reducing the green house gases emission by focusing on the increase

efficiency projects and thus decreases in emission and also the large countries need to

adapt measures to reduce their climate change risks.

Richard A. Kier 1990, according to the scientists 1989 was the warmest year the

temperature was increase by 0.23C. The chances of green house gases the main cause of

global warming has not been confirmed yet. The recent access warmth is considerable

and making the year 1989 the fifth warmest year. Although the temperature is increasing

the direct signs give that the greenhouse gases effects are still hard to come by the

temperature record. The temperature increased is mostly in the Arctic regions. This

makes the author believed that the greenhouse gases are the most likely cause of the

global warming.

David Stradling 2000, the researcher studies that with greenhouse Gale

Christianson has tackled a timely and valuable topic about global warming causes.

Christianson’s lively writing is supporting global warming theory and to the industrial

history behind the rising of carbon gases in the atmosphere. Christianson’s approaches

his conclusion by giving some dire forecast about climate change. His project takes the

current understanding about climate change on an absolute truth. A position that greatly

diminishes the value of his own work revealing the many changes in opinion that have

marked the last century.

3. RESEARCH QUESTIONS

1. How is global warming affecting the rise in temperature?

2. How greenhouse gases result in increase of temperature?

3. What role do natural forces play in current global warming trend?

 4. What are the sources that contribute in global warming?

5. What causes most the global warming?

6. How severe can global warming impacts will reach if not considered seriously?

4. HYPOTHESIS

Global warming is a major problem for life now a days and the main source

contributing for global warming is greenhouse gases which corresponds to human

activities since the evolution of industrial activities. This means there is a significant

relationship between greenhouse gases and global warming. The main source of global

warming is carbon dioxide because carbon dioxide acts as a trapping blanket in the

atmosphere which traps heat and global temperature rises due to the trapping of heat and

also carbon dioxide in the atmosphere survives for long time and heat trap in it

compounds over a long time. The gases that affect global warming are not only coming

from greenhouse gases they are also arriving from other events such as disforestation,

ozone layer depletion, volcanic activity which that global warming does not only have

relationship with greenhouse gases but also with other events both natural and artificial or

we can say human activities.

5. RESEARCH METHODOOGY

5.1 Variables

Independent variables used in this research paper are

1.Greenhouse gases

2. Volcanic eruption
 3. Ozone layer

4. Deforestation

5.Volcanic activities.

Dependent variables used in this research paper are

1.Global warming effects on life

2. Global warming a precursor to ice age

3. After how long will global warming start to harm

4. Melting of ice,

5.Intensity of global rise in temperature.

Some other variable used in this research paper are what level of priority should

be given to global warming, is global warming considered as a serious problem?

5.2 Sampling Method

Sampling method used in this research paper is non probability sampling in which

convenient sampling is used. Strategy technique is used. I have selected different

universities in Karachi and conducted questionnaire survey for collection of data for

research paper.

5.3 Time Horizon

Time horizon selected for my research paper was cross sectional study which was

done under four months and about two hundred and eleven questionnaires forms were

filled from respondent.

5.4 Data Collection Instrument

The collection of data for this research paper was done manually by preparing

questionnaire and by visiting different universities. The questionnaire was given to

 teachers of environmental department and then the data was analyzed and interpreted by

SPSS software.

5.5 Analytical Test

Analytical test was done by using SPSS software in which regression analysis,

frequency distribution, reliability of the data collected were checked and interpreted.

6. FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS

6.1 Frequency Table

Causes of Global Warming

Greenhouse Gases Emission

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Strongly agree 55 26.1 26.1 26.1
Neither agree nor disagree 146 69.2 69.2 95.3
Valid
Disagree 10 4.7 4.7 100.0
Total 211 100.0 100.0

The above frequency chart shows the percentage of respondents that agree that

Volcanic Eruption
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Strongly Agree 26 12.3 12.3 12.3
Neither agree nor disagree 75 35.5 35.5 47.9
Valid Disagree 93 44.1 44.1 91.9
Simply Disagree 17 8.1 8.1 100.0
Total 211 100.0 100.0
how much greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming.
 The above frequency chart shows the percentage of respondents that how much

they think that volcanic eruption is the cause of global warming.

Ozone Layer
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Strongly Agree 26 12.3 12.3 12.3
Neither agree nor disagree 101 47.9 47.9 60.2
Valid Disagree 51 24.2 24.2 84.4
Simply Disagree 33 15.6 15.6 100.0
Total 211 100.0 100.0

The above frequency chart shows the rate of percentage of respondents that

believe that the ozone layer depletion is resulting in the cause of global warming.

Deforestation
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Strongly Agree 26 12.3 12.3 12.3
Neither agree nor disagree 123 58.3 58.3 70.6
Valid Disagree 45 21.3 21.3 91.9
Simply Disagree 17 8.1 8.1 100.0
Total 211 100.0 100.0
 The previous frequency chart shows the rate of respondents that I choose for my

questionnaire sampling that how much deforestation tends to increase in global warming.

Human Activities
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Strongly Agree 68 32.2 32.2 32.2
Neither agree nor disagree 126 59.7 59.7 91.9
Valid
Disagree 17 8.1 8.1 100.0
Total 211 100.0 100.0

The above frequency chart shows the rate of respondents that think that human

activities are the most contributing source for global warming.

6.2 Reliability Analysis

Case Processing Summary

N %
Valid 211 100.0
Cases Excluded 0 .0
Total 211 100.0
a. List wise deletion based on all variables in the procedure.

Reliability Statistics
Cronbach's Alpha N of Items

.839 18

The above given charts shows the reliability analysis of 211 questionnaires with 18 questions in

each questionnaire.
 6.3 Regression Analysis

1. Effects of Greenhouse Gases

Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate

1 .459a .210 .207 1.82330

a. Predictors: (Constant), Causes GHG 1

Coefficients
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.
Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta
(Constant) 7.654 .423 18.090 .000
1
Causes_GHG_1 1.654 .215 .459 7.709 .000
a. Dependent Variable: Global Warming

EQUATION: By using simple linear regression I have derived an equation;

Y= a + b(x) Where Y = Global Warming

Y = 7.654 + 1.654(x) a = Constant rate

b = Slope

x = Green House Gases Rate

According to the equation as the green house gases rate (x) increases the global

warming rate (Y) also increases.

The value of R for linear regression s is the result of greenhouse gases emission

on global warming which shows that greenhouse gases has strong positive relationship

with global warming. As greenhouse gases amount increases the global arming rate also

increases as shown in the above equation. The value of R square shows the percent

variability which has been expanded by the model. The p value was found to be very
 significant which means there is a significant positive relationship between greenhouse

gases and global warming.

2. Effects of volcanic eruption

Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate

1 .626a .392 .390 1.59932

a. Predictors: (Constant), Causes Volcanic Eruption 2

Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized T Sig.
Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta
(Constant) 6.211 .395 15.716 .000
1 Causes Volcanic Eruption
1.868 .156 .626 12.003 .000
2
a. Dependent Variable: Global Warming

EQUATION: By using simple linear regression I have derived an equation;

Y= a + b(x) Where Y = Global Warming

Y = 6.211 + 1.868(x) a = Constant rate

b = Slope

x = volcanic eruption Rate

According to the equation as the volcanic eruption rate (x) increases the global

warming rate (Y) also increases.

 The value of R for linear regression s is the result of volcanic eruption rate on

global warming which shows that volcanic eruption has strong positive relationship with

global warming. As volcanism amount increases the global arming rate also increases as

shown in the above equation. The value of R square shows the percent variability which

has been expanded by the model. The p value was found to be very significant which

means there is a significant positive relationship between volcanic eruption and global

warming.

3. Effects of Ozone layer depletion

Model Summary
Mo R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
del

1 .212a .045 .040 2.00546

a. Predictors: (Constant), Causes Depletion Of Ozone Layer 3

Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Standardized t Sig.
Coefficients Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta
(Constant) 9.708 .357 27.204 .000
1 Causes_Depletion_Of_O
.458 .142 .212 3.232 .001
zone_Layer_3
a. Dependent Variable: Global Warming
 EQUATION: By using simple linear regression I have derived an equation;

Y= a + b(x) Where Y = Global Warming

Y = 9.708 + 0.458(x) a = Constant rate

b = Slope

x = ozone layer depletion Rate

According to the equation as the ozone layer depletion rate (x) increases the

global warming rate (Y) also increases.

The value of R for linear regression s is the result of ozone layer depletion rate on

global warming which shows that ozone layer depletion has strong positive relationship

with global warming. As ozone layer depletion amount increases the global arming rate

also increases as shown in the above equation. The value of R square shows the percent

variability which has been expanded by the model. The p value was found to be very

significant which means there is a significant positive relationship between ozone layer

depletion and global warming.

4. Effects of Deforestation

Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate

1 .607a .368 .365 1.63095

a. Predictors: (Constant), Causes_Deforestation_4
 Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Standardized T Sig.
Coefficients Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta
(Constant) 7.227 .330 21.909 .000
1
Causes_Deforestation_4 1.682 .148 .607 11.400 .000
a. Dependent Variable: Global Warming

EQUATION: By using simple linear regression I have derived an equation;

Y= a + b(x) Where Y = Global Warming

Y = 7.227 + 1.682(x) a = Constant rate

b = Slope

x = Deforestation Rate

According to the equation as the deforestation rate (x) increases the global

warming rate (Y) also increases.

The value of R for linear regression s is the result of deforestation rate on global

warming which shows that deforestation has strong positive relationship with global

warming. As deforestation amount increases the global arming rate also increases as

shown in the above equation. The value of R square shows the percent variability which

has been expanded by the model. The p value was found to be very significant which

means there is a significant positive relationship between deforestation and global

warming.

7. CONCLUSION

It has been illustrated that global warming is mostly caused by human activities

such as green house gases, ozone layer depletion, deforestation related to natural hazards
 like volcanic eruption. The main cause of increase in global mean temperature is

emission of carbon dioxide because, fossil fuels which mostly contains carbon in them

when burned they react with oxygen and produce carbon dioxide. The destruction in

forest which uses carbon dioxide also contributes to the increase in carbon dioxide. This

does not only mean that only artificial events such as human activities are responsible for

global warming but also natural events such as volcanic activity and also carbon emission

from various natural events also contribute in global warming but in lesser quantity.

8. SUMMARY OF FININGS

Human based activities such as greenhouse, deforestation are the main cause of

global warming or global rise in temperature. As shown by the frequency table and

regression analysis as the variables rates increases the global warming also increases.

9. CRITICAL DEBATE

Most of the research questions were answered by questionnaire survey and also

by using SPSS software which helped in Reliability analysis, frequency distribution and

also linear regression analysis of data collected from respondents.

10. RECOMMENDATION

Complete study may help people to have better understanding of the global

warming and its causes and how can we help to reduce it. For its precaution steps it is

important that you should first understand what is global warming and how it is

processing and most of this you can get from this research paper.
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12. APPENDIX

People’s perceptions about greenhouse gases affecting global warming.

 People’s perception about volcanic eruption affecting global warming.

People’s perception about ozone layer depletion affecting global warming.

 People’s perception about deforestation affecting global warming

People’s perception about human activities responsible for global warming

 Qualification of respondents that filled the questionnaire

Respondents that had interest in research regarding climate change study