(2020) Spatial Estimation For 3D Formation Drillability Field A New Modeling Framework
(2020) Spatial Estimation For 3D Formation Drillability Field A New Modeling Framework
(2020) Spatial Estimation For 3D Formation Drillability Field A New Modeling Framework
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Spatial 3D formation drillability distribution is crucial for the drilling trajectory planning, collision detection,
Spatial estimation and drilling optimization in the natural gas and petroleum fields. Conventional geostatistical methods are usually
Formation drillability used to establish the 3D formation drillability field model. However, few or no machine learning methods, which
Machine learning
have a powerful fitting capability, are used to build that model. This paper proposes a new modeling framework
Geostatistical
3D field
for establishing the spatial 3D formation drillability model. Four methods, one geostatistical (Kriging), one non-
stochastic (ScatteredInterpolant), and two machine learning methods (random forest and support vector
regression) are analyzed in this modeling framework. Well logging data such as acoustic and formation density
are introduced as the input parameters. Moreover, the mutual information analysis is introduced to measure the
correlations between the 3D coordinates and formation drillability. Finally, comparisons are explored in the 10-
fold cross-validation, 3D modeling, and final test experiments using data from Xujiaweizi area, Northeast China.
The results indicate that SI has the best 10-fold cross-validation performance while RF achieves the best pre
diction accuracy in the final test among the four compared methods. The proposed new modeling framework for
3D formation drillability model provides a platform and is applicable to other modeling methods and data.
* Corresponding author. School of Automation, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
E-mail address: weihuacao@cug.edu.cn (W.-H. Cao).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2020.103628
Received 24 July 2020; Received in revised form 21 September 2020; Accepted 22 September 2020
Available online 6 October 2020
1875-5100/© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C. Gan et al. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 84 (2020) 103628
Fig. 1. (a). Location of the study site; (b). 3D coordinates and formation drillability (No unit). Fig. 1 (a) is modified after (Zeng et al., 2013).
the results showed the effectiveness of this method (Zhang et al., 2018a). (X, Y ground coordinates, and depth coordinate) and output (formation
Moreover, various regression methods were used for spatial 3D for drillability) are analyzed and established. Finally, four models, one
mation drillability estimation (Albertin et al., 2003; Yang et al., 2008; geostatistical (Kriging), one non-stochastic (ScatteredInterpolant), and
Gen et al., 2014). A sliding least square method was introduced to two machine learning methods (random forest and support vector
establish that distribution and the results indicated that the proposed regression) are cross-validated, tested, and discussed in this framework.
model could meet the needs of drilling engineering. Gen et al. (2014) The main contributions of this paper are listed as follows.
established a relationship between the 3D seismic velocities and the rock
acoustic firstly, then a model of formation drillability was established (1) A new modeling framework for the 3D formation drillability field
according to the results of micro-bit test. Based on these two steps, a 3D is proposed.
formation drillability distribution was obtained. (2) Four methods (SI, Kriging, RF, and SVR) have been applied and
The relationships between spatial coordinates and FD are nonlinear compared in establishing the 3D formation drillability field.
and uncertain, making it difficult to form a high accuracy spatial 3D (3) For the study site, the results indicate that SI method is superior
formation drillability distribution. In recent years, machine learning in the cross-validation experiment and RF method has the best
methods attract increasing attention in the natural gas and petroleum performance in the prediction accuracy of the test set.
domains because of its strong fitting capability (Huang et al., 2017;
Ahmed et al., 2019). Ma introduced the multi-source information fusion This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the geological
method to estimate the 1D formation drillability and the prediction re background. A new modeling framework of 3D formation drillability
sults indicated that the proposed method is robust and stable (Ma, field is proposed in Section 3. Section 4 introduces four geostatistical
2011). Gan et al. proposed the off-line and on-line 1D formation drill and machine learning spatial estimation methods. Section 5 analysis the
ability model by the nadaboost extreme learning machine and online spatial correlation between geometrical properties (X and Y ground
sequential nadaboost extreme learning machine, respectively, leading to coordinates, and Depth coordinate) and FD. Section 6 presents the re
a good prediction accuracy of formation drillability (Gan et al., 2016, sults of cross-validation, 3D modeling, and final test using data from
2017). Xujiaweizi area, Northeast China. Section 7 concludes the paper.
Many geostatistical and machine learning methods were applied to
the formation drillability modeling (Zhu et al., 2012; Gen et al., 2014). 2. Geological background
However, there is no comprehensive modeling framework that can treat
the sources of input and output, model structure, and modeling method, This section briefly describes the geological background of the study
and enables the geologist or drilling engineers to establish the spatial 3D site in the Xujiaweizi area, Northeast China. The location of the study
formation drillability model. site, 3D coordinates and formation drillability are shown in Fig. 1. Data
The objective of this paper is to propose such a new modeling from nine drilling wells (XS3, XS4, XS401, XS5, XS6, XS602, XS7, XS9,
framework for establishing the spatial 3D formation drillability model. SS8) are collected for the case study and the locations of these wells are
Specifically, this framework is proposed according to the geological between Xingcheng and Songzhan, Xujiaweizi area (Table 1).
characteristics and composed of two parts. In the first part, well logging The Xujiaweizi area, located in the near center of the Songliao Basin,
and mud logging parameters are collected to compute the formation Northeast China, is an north northwest - north northeast (NNW-NNE)
drillability. In the second part, relationship between the model inputs trending depression deposited during the Early Cretaceous (Zeng et al.,
Table 1
X and Y ground coordinates of the drilling wells.
Name SS8 XS3 XS4 XS5 XS6 XS602 XS7 XS9 XS401
X (m) 5.084 E+6 5.087 E+6 5.101 E+6 5.099 E+6 5.105 E+6 5.105 E+6 5.092 E+6 5.082 E+6 5.103 E+6
Y (m) 4.242 E+7 4.246 E+7 4.245 E+7 4.244 E+7 4.244 E+7 4.244 E+7 4.245 E+7 4.246 E+7 4.245 E+7
2
C. Gan et al. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 84 (2020) 103628
Fig. 2. Modeling framework of 3D formation drillability field in the Xujiaweizi area, Northeast China.
2013). The paleo-geothermal gradient in the Xujiaweizi area is higher non-stochastic method such as ScatteredInterpolant is applied to spatial
than the present average value of 4 ◦ C/100 m, with a maximum of modeling and achieved good estimation results.
5 ◦ C/100 m at the end of the Cretaceous (̃65 Ma) (Li et al., 2006). The Machine learning methods have a powerful fitting capability and
temperature around 4000–5000 m deep is over 200 ◦ C. As a result, the they are good at dealing with the regression and classification problems
formation drillability is poor and it is very difficult to drill in this (Hegde et al., 2017; Gan et al., 2019b). Although there is no or few
environment. Therefore, establishing a spatial 3D formation drillability machine learning methods used to estimate the 3D formation drillability
model becomes a key to keep the drilling safety and efficiency according field model, the fitting capability makes it attractive in this application
to the geological background. field.
Among the spatial estimation tools, Kriging is the geostatistical
3. New modeling framework of 3D formation drillability field method, SI is the non-stochastic method, while the RF and SVR are
machine learning methods. They will be briefly described in this section.
Fig. 2 illustrates a new model framework of 3D formation drillability
for the field in Xujiaweizi area, Northeast China. A 3D mesh field which 4.1. Random forest (RF)
contains the X, Y, and depth coordinates is selected as the model input.
Meanwhile, the formation drillability of this 3D mesh field is the model Random forest (Oyedere and Gray, 2020; Hegde et al., 2017; Mer
output. This model is about the relationship between the X, Y ground cadier and Lardy, 2019) is an ensemble-based machine learning method
coordinates, depth coordinate and the formation drillability. and has been widely used in the fields of natural gas, petroleum, eco
The formation drillability is very difficult to measure directly. As nomics, and power system, etc. Random forest works as a combination
seen from the upper left corner of Fig. 2, analytical or machine learning of large number of decision trees and it enhances the variance reduction
(ML) methods are chosen as the modeling tools and there are two kinds by reducing the correlation between trees (Al-Mudhafar, 2019). In the
of input (well logging and mud logging) data. In this paper, the data of formation drillability modeling area, the ensemble model is better than a
formation drillability are collected directly. Acoustic and formation single model in the prediction performance since it takes the advantages
density were introduced as the input parameters of the formation of various models.
drillability model and the detail can be found in (Gan et al., 2016). One of the most biggest problem in the machine learning methods is
As mentioned above, conventional geostatistical methods such as the “over-learning” phenomenon. However, as long as there are enough
Kriging and fractal theory et al., are usually used to establish the 3D trees (single models) in the random forest, the algorithm will not be
formation drillability field model. In this paper, four geostatistical, non- easily trapped into this phenomenon.
stochastic, and machine learning methods (Kriging, Scatter
edInterpolant (SI), Random forest (RF), and Support vector regression 4.2. Support vector regression (SVR)
(SVR)) are selected because they are reputed in complex modeling, but
their performance may depend on the field. So, it is recommended to test Support vector regression (Gu et al., 2018; Gan et al., 2019b) is one
all of them in the modeling phase. of the powerful machine learning methods and is based on the structural
risk minimization principle. So, it has effective in solving prediction
4. Spatial estimation methods problems with small samples.
Because the objective of SVR is to minimize the structural risk, it
Geostatistical methods are most widely used in the spatial modeling usually has an excellent generalization capability. On the other hand,
and they have good ability in minimizing the prediction error variation the prediction performance of SVR model depends heavily on the choice
(Pouladi et al., 2019). However, the main shortcomings of geostatistical of hyper-parameters (regularization factor, parameter of the kernel
methods are: 1) it becomes uncertain with a small number of samples, 2) function, and threshold).
it is difficult to model local variations of formation drillability caused by
formation anisotropy, spatial randomness, etc. In addition,
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C. Gan et al. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 84 (2020) 103628
Fig. 3. Correlations between 3D coordinates and formation drillability. (a). Five drilling wells; (b). Nine drilling wells.
4
C. Gan et al. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 84 (2020) 103628
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
n ( )2
1.6 1∑
RMSE = ̂y i − yi (2)
n i=1
1.4
1.2
2. Normalized root-mean-squared error:
RMSE
1 √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
( )2
1
∑n
0.8 n i=1 ̂y i − y i
NRMSE = 1
∑n × 100% (3)
0.6 n i=1 yi
RF SVR SI Kriging
5.2. 10-Fold cross-validation experiment
Fig. 4. RMSE of 10-fold cross-validation.
Spatial estimation methods, especially the machine learning tech
niques, are easy to be trapped into “over-learning”. In this paper, the 10-
fold cross-validation strategy is used to reduce this possibility. As
mentioned above, the training and validation sets are used in the 10-fold
cross-validation experiment. The data of training and validation sets are
split into ten parts randomly. At the first step, nine parts of these data are
selected as the training set and the remaining is used as the validation
set. This procedure is repeated ten times for different selections of
training/validation data sets (Gan et al., 2019b, Gan et al., 2020).
The comparison results of RMSEs and NRMSEs of 10-fold cross-
validation are shown in Figs. 4–5. The hyper-parameters shown below
in each method are determined via this experiment.
5
C. Gan et al. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 84 (2020) 103628
a function handled to the regression model and it has three types, engineering in the field of the case study. The 10-fold cross validation
namely zero order polynomial, first order polynomial, and second results of SI, RF, and Kriging are very close, but SVR did not perform
order polynomial. The second is a function handled to the correlation well. The reason may be that when facing the spatial 3D formation
function, which has six types (exponential, generalized exponential, drillability modeling problem, the first three methods are easy to find
gaussian, linear, spherical, and cubic spline). The third is the the optimal hyper-parameters while it is hard to find the optimal hyper-
parameter of correlation function, and the fourth and last hyper- parameters for SVR.
parameters are the lower and upper bounds of the third hyper-
parameter. After some pre-experiments, zero order polynomial 5.3. 3D modeling and final test experiment
regression function, exponential correlation function, [0.13 0.08
0.1], [0.01 0.01 0.01], [0.3 0.3 0.3] are chosen respectively. The After the 10-fold cross-validation experiment, the hyper-parameters
lower bound is all chosen as 0.01 and the upper bound is all selected of these four methods are determined. Then, these methods are applied
as 0.3. to establish the spatial 3D formation drillability distribution and do the
final test experiment. The results of them are shown in Figs. 6–9. The
The average RMSEs of the four methods (RF, SVR, SI, Kriging) are spatial distribution is divided into 9261 (21 × 21 × 21) unit cuboids and
0.536, 1.677, 0.497, 0.602, respectively. Meanwhile, the average the color of each cuboid represent the degree of formation drillability.
NRMSEs of these four methods are 10.236%, 32.205%, 9.480%, and The larger the formation drillability is, the more difficult it is to drill.
11.511%. SI has the best 10-fold cross-validation performance, RF and The RMSEs of the four methods (RF, SVR, SI, Kriging) for the final
Kriging rank in the second and third place. The relative estimation error test set (XS401 well) are 1.206, 1.942, 1.518, 1.364, and the NRMSEs of
of SVR is larger than 30%, which may not meet the needs of drilling them are 23.347%, 37.600%, 29.383%, 26.398%, respectively. RF
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C. Gan et al. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 84 (2020) 103628
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C. Gan et al. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 84 (2020) 103628
Universities under Grant CUGCJ1812 and 137–162301202638. More Hu, H.D., Hu, Z.Y., Zhong, K.W., Xu, J.H., Zhang, F.F., Zhao, Y., Wu, P.H., 2019. Satellite-
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