Barandaalonso 2021

Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101095
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/seta
Original article
The potential for solar-diesel hybrid mini-grids in refugee camps: A case

study of Nyabiheke camp, Rwanda
Javier Baranda Alonso a, *, Philip Sandwell a, b, c, Jenny Nelson a, b
a
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
b
Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
c
Practical Action, Rugby CV21 2SD, UK
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Electricity access in refugee camps is often limited to critical operations for humanitarian agencies and typically
Mini-grids powered by diesel generators. We study the economic and environmental benefits that optimised fully renewable
Humanitarian energy and diesel-hybrid mini-grid designs can provide in humanitarian settings by displacing diesel use. Considering
Energy systems modelling
the case study of Nyabiheke camp in Rwanda we found that these benefits are substantial, with total cost and
Renewable energy
emissions reductions of up to 32% and 83% respectively, and cost payback times ranging from 0.9 to 6.2 years.
Diesel mitigation
Refugees Despite their different cost structures, we find that all levels of hybridisation provide cost and emission savings
compared to the incumbent diesel system, with hybrid systems being able to offset emissions more cost-
effectively than fully renewable systems. We highlight how modelling tools can facilitate the introduction and
progressive expansion of systems, improving asset utilisation and reducing lifetime costs compared to one-off
installations, and can inform operational considerations on the ground. These benefits are enhanced when
connecting productive users for whom demand matches the solar generation profile. Multiple energy needs and
objectives can be met simultaneously but financial resources, environmental considerations and operational
timeframes will influence the most appropriate system design for humanitarian actors on a case-by-case basis.
Introduction Access to energy plays a crucial role in ensuring the provision of

basic services and essential economic activities in developing countries
Humanitarian energy: energy provision in humanitarian contexts [4–6], as well as in humanitarian settings [3]. The main energy uses
present in displacement settings can be categorised in public use
In recent years the world has experienced continuously rising hu (institutional and operational energy requirements), household use
manitarian needs and record numbers of displaced people, reaching 70.8 (provision of energy for household lighting, heating and cooking) and
million globally in 2019. Of those, 25.9 million refugees have sought productive uses (energy requirements for commercial and income-
asylum in outside of their home countries, escaping from conflict, generating activities) [7]. Institutional loads refer to the energy re
prosecution and climate-related events. Developing countries continue quirements to power humanitarian agencies and offices in displacement
to disproportionally bear the largest responsibility of hosting refugees, settings. Operational energy needs comprise the provision of basic ser
with 84% being hosted in developing regions [1,2]. The funding vices through water pumping, health centres, educational centres or
shortage to address increasing humanitarian needs [1], together with street lighting, generally managed by humanitarian actors [8].
lack of resources on many refugee-hosting countries, further hamper the Increased levels of energy access in humanitarian settings bring clear
identification of durable and sustainable solutions for displaced people, benefits both for displaced populations and humanitarian organisations.
especially in protracted situations [3]. These are reflected in increased levels of security, better access to health
Abbreviations: CLOVER, Continuous Lifetime Optimisation of Variable Electricity Resources; CRRF, Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework; GHG,
Greenhouse gas; MAC, Marginal Abatement Cost; LCOE, Levelised Cost of Electricity; LCUE, Levelised Cost of Used Electricity; PPA, Power Purchase Agreement; ROI,
Return on Investment; RWF, Rwandan Franc; UNHCR, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees; UNITAR, United Nations Institute for Training and Research.
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: javier.baranda-alonso18@imperial.ac.uk, javierbarandalonso@gmail.com (J. Baranda Alonso), philip.sandwell09@imperial.ac.uk
(P. Sandwell), jenny.nelson@imperial.ac.uk (J. Nelson).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2021.101095
Received 16 August 2020; Received in revised form 30 December 2020; Accepted 1 February 2021
Available online 23 February 2021
2213-1388/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
J. Baranda Alonso et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101095
services, improved livelihoods, opportunities and resilience, fostering most locations with relatively low capital expenditure. However, the
local economic activity and bringing local environmental benefits diesel systems installed are often oversized for the loads required,
[3,9,10]. resulting into lower load factors and poor fuel efficiencies. Together
However, energy provision in displacement settings is typically with the high associated operational costs and the exposure to fuel price
limited to the minimum requirements for survival and critical opera volatility, this poses several economic and logistical challenges to hu
tions of humanitarian actors: it is estimated that almost 90% of refugees manitarian organisations, in addition to the health impact caused by
in displaced settings globally do not have access to electricity [3]. local air pollution in camps. The Moving Energy Initiative estimates that
Furthermore, energy has not been recognised as a priority in humani humanitarian agencies spend up to 5% of their annual budget on fossil
tarian assistance, resulting in a historically poor working knowledge and fuels, including electricity generation in camps and for transportation,
a fragmented approach towards energy supply interventions in the hu amounting to $1.2 billion annually across the sector [11].
manitarian sector [3,10,11]. In parallel, the regulatory uncertainty Considering this economic and environmental burden it is therefore
around displacement settings has prevented displaced populations from imperative to transition to cleaner and more cost-effective energy
being successfully included in national energy-access agendas. The en sources in humanitarian interventions. This aligns with the “no harm”
ergy needs of refugees remain poorly understood and inadequately in principle of humanitarian work in an effort to minimize the environ
tegrated into energy supply interventions in many cases [12]. mental footprint of humanitarian assistance [10,11,13].
Only recently has energy access emerged as a relevant factor in the Humanitarian organisations, donors, host governments and other
provision of humanitarian assistance, associated with an increasing actors are increasingly pledging to use renewable energy to improve the
environmental awareness in the sector and a willingness to better un situation [13,14]. Nonetheless, different barriers have hampered the
derstand its energy usage and reduce its environmental footprint introduction of clean energy infrastructure in displacement settings
[13,14]. Different international initiatives aim to address energy needs [3,10,32–35]:
in displacement and humanitarian settings specifically, both providing
local solutions as well as setting a common operational framework for • Lack of in-house technical expertise, scarce data on energy use both
the sector to transition to cleaner energy solutions. Among them are the of displaced people and institutions, and a lack of comprehensive and
Moving Energy Initiative [9], the UNITAR-led Global Plan of Action for coordinated strategies for energy provision and management of hu
Sustainable Energy Solutions in Situations of Displacement [10], or the manitarian organisations.
UNHCR Global Strategy for Sustainable Energy and its Clean Energy • High upfront costs of renewable energy infrastructure, which poorly
Challenge [13,15]. matches limited and short-term funding cycles of humanitarian ac
Rwanda, a densely populated landlocked country in East Africa, tors, which generally operate on an annual basis.
presents a forward-looking example towards rural electrification and the • The perception that protracted situations are short-term issues, reg
integration of displaced populations. Despite its relatively small size, the ulatory uncertainty around the status of displacement settings, the
country currently hosts 150,000 refugees, primarily from the Demo perceived risk of investing in long-term energy infrastructure, and
cratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Burundi [16]. Rwanda is an the marginalisation of lack of acknowledgement of displaced pop
adopter of the major refugee conventions worldwide, including the New ulations in national electrification agendas.
York Declaration for Refugees [17] and its Comprehensive Refugee
Response Framework (CRRF) [18]. These conventions aim to provide In order to successfully deploy and scale-up sustainable energy so
long-term sustainable solutions for refugees and to integrate them in the lutions in refugee camps, continuous support in the form of favourable
socio-economic life of the host countries. The country upholds a pro policy frameworks and increasing engagement of the private sector are
gressive regulatory framework towards the status of refugees, allowing crucial to facilitate the financing and long-term management of
refugees to work and access other national services such as healthcare renewable assets [8,32]. However, organisations willing to invest in
and education [19,20]. clean energy infrastructure still face high risks and lack the technical and
With regards to its rural electrification efforts, Rwanda’s ambitious financial resources to transition towards renewable energy sources
electrification strategies [21,22], favourable policies towards off-grid completely.
electrification and effective financing programmes have resulted in a
rapid scale-up of electricity access in the country, rising from 8% of Opportunities for mini-grid systems
households in 2008 to 35% in 2017 [23,24]. Despite the favourable
environment and the presence of specific initiatives targeting energy Decentralized off-grid clean energy systems, such as solar photo
access in displacement settings, such as the Renewable Energy for Ref voltaic (PV) and battery storage mini-grids, have emerged as sustainable
ugees project [25], energy access in refugee camps in Rwanda is still and reliable solutions for energy provision in rural areas where the grid
very limited [26]. There remains a need for continued investment and extension is not physically or economically viable [23,36–38]. Given the
efforts to sustainably meet the energy needs of displaced population in constraints present in humanitarian settings, and to better adapt to the
the country [27,28]. Nevertheless, the progressive national framework objectives and resources available for humanitarian organisations, a
and a vibrant solar off-grid private sector offer an exceptional oppor wide range of solar-diesel hybridised mini-grid systems can provide a
tunity to implement sustainable energy solutions in the existing refugee significant reduction in operational costs and environmental impact
camps in the country [29–31]. with reduced additional investments, taking advantage of the existing
diesel infrastructure [39,40]. Hybrid solar-battery-diesel mini-grid sys
Challenges for cleaner energy supply tems, onwards referred as ‘hybrid systems’ in this study, benefit from the
flexibility and reliability of traditional diesel generators as well as the
The increasing humanitarian crisis and chronic funding shortages reduced requirements of renewable generation and storage capacity
have limited the capacity of humanitarian organisations to deploy installed in comparison with fully renewable systems [41]. Thus, hybrid
modern and efficient solutions for energy supply in displacement set systems can represent a more cost-effective solution than fully renew
tings. Humanitarian actors have traditionally relied on inefficient, able systems in humanitarian contexts, aligned with the evidence pro
polluting and expensive stand-alone diesel generators for electricity vided for similar rural off-grid facilities [42–45].
supply in remote displacement settings where the grid supply is not As well as providing critical services, humanitarian assistance also
available [8,11]. This practice is due to the widespread availability and aims to improve the livelihoods of displaced populations and host
maturity of the technology, in addition to the ability to provide a communities and catalyse economic growth pursuing long-term sus
continuous and reliable electricity supply, and to be rapidly deployed in tainable and resilient development. The introduction of renewable
2
energy infrastructure offers the possibility of expanding the electricity to the needs and resources of humanitarian organisations in each
supply beyond the basic necessities. This could provide a reliable, safe specific context.
and affordable electricity supply to entrepreneurs and local businesses • Successful and detailed case studies are needed to build an evidence
for the development of productive activities [46]. base around the potential of sustainable mini-grid systems in hu
The unique context of displacement settings offers a favourable manitarian settings, supporting and informing strategies for large
environment for the electrification of productive activities through scale rollout of hybridisation in the humanitarian sector.
mini-grid systems. The high population density and concentration of
businesses represent a large base of potential customers. Furthermore, Addressing these three issues will contribute towards a greater un
reliable high-consuming anchor loads can increase the profitability of derstanding of how to provide sustainable electricity in situations of
mini-grids, with the institutional and operational loads present in displacement.
displacement settings or refugee camps operated by trustworthy and
bankable organisations, potentially providing revenue certainty for Summary of the study
private mini-grid suppliers.
However, due to the short-term nature of the humanitarian response This study explores the potential strategies of introducing renewable
and the lack of funding and comprehensive long-term strategies in many technologies (solar PV and battery storage) to partially or fully displace
interventions, energy systems deployed in these settings are often diesel use for humanitarian operations in refugee camps and the benefits
planned over relatively short timeframes and designed to meet a certain that they entail, considering the current context and constraints faced by
level of electricity demand. In parallel, the lack of financial and tech the humanitarian sector.
nical capacity from humanitarian agencies mean that these systems The electricity demand existent in humanitarian settings is presented
might be in operation for significantly longer periods than the ones through the case study of Nyabiheke refugee camp in Rwanda, which is
initially intended, often without adequate maintenance or replacement comprised of institutional, operational and business loads. Using the
of the degraded capacity. They might also experience unexpected CLOVER optimisation tool [55,56], we assess the impact of the use of
growth in electricity demand over time, for example as a result of the incumbent diesel generators to meet the existing electricity demand in
connection of additional institutional loads, operational loads, house Nyabiheke, and present alternative optimised sustainable mini-grid
holds or productive users. It is therefore important to consider these system designs. These correspond to the lowest levelised cost of used
often overlooked factors when planning the design of electricity systems electricity (LCUE) over their lifetime for different levels of PV-battery
[47], and their implications on system performance, to ensure their and diesel hybridisation.
suitability over their operational lifetime. We discuss the correspondence of different hybridisation levels with
Finally, while providing a cheaper and cleaner electricity supply for the objectives and resources available for humanitarian organisations in
humanitarian organisations and refugees alike is a crucial step towards displacement contexts. We present alternatives for the extension of the
the promotion of equitable livelihood opportunities for displaced pop energy supply to productive users in refugee camps and for the
ulations, these interventions must be financially accessible and sus deployment of sustainable mini-grid systems with the private sector.
tainable. Thus, the establishment of suitable delivery models and We conclude by presenting suggestions and best practices for policy-
contractual mechanisms to engage the private sector in the imple makers, private actors and humanitarian organisations to maximise the
mentation and maintenance of such systems is a key enabler of the impact and scalability of sustainable mini-grids in displacement settings.
successful scale-up of sustainable energy solutions in humanitarian Our methodology allows us to evaluate and quantify the techno-
settings. These mechanisms have the potential to facilitate facing the economic and environmental performance of different mini-grid sys
investment required and mitigate the risks associated with the operation tems. Moreover, it therefore allows us to critically assess the suitability
and maintenance of the systems [8,48]. and potential of these systems to adapt to existing humanitarian pro
curement and operational practices. This study presents a novel
Modelling mini-grid systems in humanitarian situations contribution to the existing literature by adapting the analysis of sus
tainable mini-grids design, implementation and operation to the specific
To maximize the benefits that decentralised renewable systems can conditions of displacement settings and constraints of humanitarian
offer, the accurate sizing and modelling of the system remains a crucial organisations. This evidence base is crucial to promote the scale-up of
factor of success. This applies both during initial planning phases as well renewable energy systems in the humanitarian sector and to meet long-
as when considering the long-term performance and potential expansion term sustainability targets.
of systems. This modelling process frequently aims to determine the
minimum system requirements needed to meet the existing electricity Methodology
demand under specific criteria, usually associated with the system cost
or the reliability of the electricity supply [38,43,49,50]. Different Description of modelling tool: CLOVER
modelling and optimisation tools and techniques have been used in
similar rural off-grid contexts, with the use of software packages for the Given information about the electricity demand and the energy re
design and analysis of power systems becoming a widespread solution sources available for a closed system, in this case Nyabiheke camp, we
[49,51–54]. use the optimisation software CLOVER for the design and analysis of
Political and international support to design and introduce more optimised mini-grid systems according to specified economic and
sustainable solutions for displaced populations, including the expansion operational criteria. CLOVER (Continuous Lifetime Optimisation of
of the energy provision through cleaner energy sources has extended Variable Electricity Resources) is an open-source energy systems simu
recently [10,13,18,25], but critical analysis of the existing options for lation and optimisation tool designed for supporting rural electrification
practical implementation has not been widely explored: in developing countries. Similarly to other widely commercialised
software as HOMER [42,52,54,57,58], CLOVER allows performing
• The quantification of the economic and environmental costs of hourly simulations of selected energy systems, providing indicative
prevalent assumptions about hybridising mini-grids and their bene performance metrics, as well as optimising system component sizes to
fits is required to compare them objectively with incumbent diesel- meet predetermined objectives. A comprehensive description of the
powered and fully renewable systems. CLOVER model and capabilities can be found in [55,59].
• Modelling and optimisation tools to investigate different strategies The optimisation process, characteristic of CLOVER, involves both
and system design approaches can help to inform solutions tailored optimisation and sufficiency criteria. CLOVER performs series of
3
incumbent and the proposed systems, the required modelling parame

ters, including financial and environmental inputs for the study were
sourced from relevant literature.
Three additional electricity demand scenarios are also considered in
later sections of this study to evaluate the implications of expanding the
electricity supply in Nyabiheke further than the current Baseline sce
nario to productive users and refugee businesses within the camp and
immediate surroundings. This consideration is in line with the existing
efforts of governments and organisations to promote the socio-economic
activity and integration in displacement settings through electricity
provision. We consider three expanded productive demand scenarios
representing different levels of electricity provision for productive ac
tivities. In the Low Productive scenario, the final productive electricity
load equal to three times the current productive electricity load in the
Baseline scenario. In the Medium Productive scenario, the final productive
electricity load equal to six times the current productive electricity load
in the Baseline scenario. Finally, in the High Productive scenario, the final
productive electricity load equal to ten times the current productive
electricity load in the Baseline scenario.
We illustrate the practical implications of the different levels of
expansion of the electricity supply through the number of businesses
that could be powered in each of the scenarios. As the requirements and
Fig. 1. Location of Nyabiheke refugee camp in the Eastern Province of Rwanda usage of individual businesses will vary in reality, the total number of
(red circle), founded in 2005 and hosting around 15,000 displaced people [60], businesses is offered as an indication on the potential scale and scope of
and the capital Kigali (yellow star). (For interpretation of the references to
the overall demand and its possible uses, rather than an exact estimation
colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of
of the number of connections, for example. The electricity demand for
this article.)
each business is estimated following the World Bank Tier 2 and Tier 3
levels of electricity demand [62], according to the objectives presented
simulations with increasing system sizes until the performance of one of
in the UNHCR Strategy for Sustainable Energy [13].
the systems simulated meets the sufficiency criterion defined by the
user, for instance, a minimum level of reliability in the electricity supply.
Analysis criteria and metrics used
CLOVER then analyses surrounding systems in terms of component
sizes, looking for systems that both meet the sufficiency criteria and
Various metrics are utilised in this study to characterise and evaluate
perform better according to the optimisation criteria, for instance at a
the technical, economic and environmental performance of the mini-
lower cost. This process is repeated until adjacent systems are no longer
grids systems being evaluated. These are described in this section and
superior, selecting the last system as the optimum and recording its
the equations used to calculate them are available in the Supplementary
environmental, technical and economic performance. Having performed
Information.
this for a given time period CLOVER then repeats the process for the next
The system reliability is defined as the proportion of the number of
time period, and so on for the entire system lifetime, allowing the op
hours during which power is available compared to the total number of
timum system size to increase in response to technological degradation
hours of operation of the system. A loss of power, referred to as a
or growing load profiles whilst maintaining the original performance.
blackout, occurs when the energy demanded from the load exceeds the
This allows for long-term planning whilst replicating the responsive
capability of the system to meet it, resulting in a temporal shortage of
strategies for system upgrades that likely would be implemented in
energy. The system reliability is a crucial metric to evaluate the quality
practice in reaction to changing performance.
and security of the electricity supply, especially where there is presence
Regarding the electricity load profiles used for the optimisation and
of critical loads, such as health facilities
simulation processes, CLOVER allows to define them in two different
The Levelised Cost of Used Electricity (LCUE) is defined as the
ways. The model allows to create a load profile based on information
discounted cost per kWh of electricity used to meet the demand over the
about appliance availability and demand for their services, provided for
lifetime of the project. In comparison with the traditional levelised cost
instance through survey information. Alternatively, a representative
of electricity (LCOE), the LCUE explicitly does not account for the
load profile, obtained for example from monitored usage data, can be
electricity generation that cannot be used due to reduced demand and
directly input, as done in this study.
limited electricity storage capacity, being dumped, and accounts for
shortfalls in supply and reliabilities less than 100%. Thus, the LCUE
Data collection and electricity demand scenarios represents more accurately the cost of electricity assumed in off-grid
systems to meet demand, and is used as the main economic indicator
Most of the analysis of this study relies on primary electricity load in this study.
data collected in Nyabiheke refugee camp, Rwanda, between March and The renewable fraction of the system is defined as the proportion of
June 2019. Fig. 1 shows the location of Nyabiheke and Kigali, the capital the total energy provided by renewable sources over a certain period or
city, in Rwanda. lifetime compared to the total energy supplied by the system. In our case
These data were collected by Practical Action [60] through smart this can range from 0 (a diesel-only system) to 1 (a fully renewable solar
meters monitoring existing loads connected to the incumbent diesel- and storage system) or any value in between (a hybrid system). This will
powered system in place, including two water pumping stations, a be used as a key metric to identify systems with different levels of
health centre, various blocks of institutional offices and several hybridisation of the energy supply.
privately-owned businesses by refugees. The electricity demand data The cumulative or embedded greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
used for this study is publicly available online [61]. This electricity load refers to the total GHG emissions associated with the production and
profile comprises the Baseline scenario analysed in this study. In order to operation of the system over its lifetime. This metric is used to assess the
evaluate the economic, environmental and technical performance of the environmental impact of different systems, and calculated in terms of
4
kgCO2eq [63]. the optimised fully renewable and hybrid systems. The load corresponds
The emissions intensity of an electricity source refers to the cu to the existing load in Nyabiheke or Baseline scenario, and for simplicity
mulative GHG emissions released per kWh of electricity supplied by the it is considered constant over time without seasonal nor yearly
system, allowing to compare the specific GHG emissions of different variations.
energy systems between them. However, these optimised system designs represent only two of the
The Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) refers to the financial costs wide range of hybridisation levels possible, some of which could
associated with the mitigation or reduction of a negative impact, in this potentially fit better with the economic resources and environmental
case, the GHG emissions associated with the baseline diesel system. For objectives of humanitarian organisations in place. We therefore present
instance, a negative MAC implies that the alternative studied presents a sensitivity analysis of the renewable fraction of the system, comparing
both lower costs and emissions associated. Therefore, the MAC is used in the optimum system sizes for different levels of hybridisation. This
this study as a metric to compare the cost-effectiveness of mitigation spectrum of systems could allow organisations to identify the system
emissions by different systems. design that aligns best with their interests, considering factors such as
As mentioned earlier, CLOVER selects the optimal energy system the capital investment required, the LCUE of the system, or the GHG
characteristics based on the sufficiency and optimisation criteria. The emissions offset.
sufficiency criteria used for this study is a minimum level of reliability of In addition to the economic and environmental performance, the
the power supply by the system over its entire lifetime, in this study level of hybridisation of the system also brings further operational
95%, for both hybrid and fully renewable systems analysed. While challenges for the operation of diesel generators in place. These factors
higher reliability levels would be desirable, achieving increasingly include the number of hours of operation needed and the seasonal
higher levels of reliability for PV-battery-based off-grid systems requires variability of the diesel supply required as a consequence of the variable
disproportionally larger system capacities, consequently reducing the renewable resource throughout the year. These factors are also consid
cost-efficiency of the system and its investment attractiveness [64]. The ered in the sensitivity analysis, highlighting the potential of modelling
main optimisation criterion used in this study is the LCUE of the system techniques to inform operational considerations on the ground.
over its lifetime, due to the possibility to compare systems of different From the range of systems analysed for the specific case of Nyabi
nature as well as setting the electricity tariff required to break even at heke, we suggest three possible hybridisation levels to match different
the end of the lifetime of the system for potential private actors involved levels of financial resources available to humanitarian organisations.
in the deployment of the system.
Other criteria used to select the most appropriate systems are the Implementation of sustainable mini-grids in humanitarian settings
initial or upfront costs required to deploy the system, together with the
renewable fraction of the system and the emissions intensity associated, Despite of the opportunities that the introduction of renewable
depending on the specific resources and objectives of humanitarian or infrastructure can create in humanitarian settings, the overstretched
ganisations in this regard. For comparability of results, all the costs resources of humanitarian organisations present several challenges for
presented in this study are shown in 2020 US dollar equivalents ($). the design and sustainable operation of renewable systems. The short-
term vision of humanitarian response can lead to a lack of capability
Analysis of sustainable mini-grid systems to maintain and expand renewable systems appropriately over longer
timeframes and considering future demand growth.
To mitigate and replace the use of diesel in off-grid systems in hu We use CLOVER to evaluate the economic and operational implica
manitarian settings, we consider solar PV as the alternative generation tions of this short-term design approach. For this purpose, we simulate
source, supported by energy storage through lead-acid batteries. Given the connection of an unexpected growing load over 15 years to different
the presence of already deployed diesel generators in most humanitarian renewable fraction systems initially optimised to supply a constant load
settings, we evaluate the potential that both fully renewable and diesel- over 5 years (corresponding to the baseline scenario), without any re-
hybrid mini-grid systems present to reduce the economic and environ assessment or re-sizing of the system during its lifetime. We then
mental impact of the electricity supply in camps. We use CLOVER to compare this short-term approach with two different long-term ap
model the performance of multiple mini-grid designs for the case of proaches that account for the productive load growth connected over the
Nyabiheke, comparing them to the performance of the incumbent diesel system lifetime. A first static approach considers that the system is
system in place. deployed in its entirety in a one-off installation. A second modular
To this end we simulate and characterise the incumbent diesel sys approach involves a system that is re-assessed and re-sized every certain
tem, which serves as a baseline for the analysis of the subsequent de period to adapt to the growing demand, introducing the required gen
signs. We then use CLOVER to find the optimum fully renewable and eration and storage capacity to meet the expected load growth during
hybrid systems under selected criteria presented at the end of the pre each period.
vious section. In order to compare the performance of the incumbent As mentioned earlier, the engagement of the private sector in the
diesel-powered system with the alternative sustainable mini-grid de implementation of renewable infrastructure in humanitarian settings is
signs presented in this study, we established a common study frame key to support the resource-constrained agencies and to scale-up sus
work. This framework involves the main simulation parameters used for tainable energy solutions in these contexts. To complement the previous
the analysis in CLOVER, such as the system lifetime modelled, set as 15 techno-economic analysis presented in this study, a discounted cash
years, or the re-assessment modelling period, considered as 5 years. flow analysis for different contractual mechanisms to introduce opti
Despite the temporary nature of displaced settings, we selected these mised mini-grid systems for the Baseline scenario in Nyabiheke. This
timeframes considering the relatively long periods that refugees can live cash flow analysis evaluates the costs assumed by humanitarian orga
in these settings [65], particularly in protracted refugee crisis such as the nisations, highlighting the viability of these contractual mechanisms to
one existing in Rwanda. The 5-year re-assessment period is selected deploy renewable infrastructure to displace diesel in humanitarian
considering the frequently limited capacity of humanitarian organisa settings.
tions to re-assess the system and replace components after its deploy We evaluate three of the main contractual mechanisms available for
ment. The remaining simulation parameters are available in Table A.1 in humanitarian organisations:
the Appendix. Similarly, the technical, financial and environmental
parameters used in this study are included in table A.2. Under this • Purchase by a humanitarian organisation, where the organisation owns
framework, we simulate the incumbent diesel system in Nyabiheke over and operates the renewable assets, in addition to operating the diesel
a lifetime of 15 years with a reliability level of 95%, and compare it with generator and sourcing the diesel fuel.
5
Fig. 2. Hourly average load connected to the incumbent diesel system in Nyabiheke. Part (a) represents the cumulative load connected to the system (filled colours)
and the total load when a given multiple of the current productive load profile, coloured red and detailed in part (b), is added on to the current total (dashed lines).
• Lease to own, where the organisation leases the system from an en alternative technologies would impact the optimum system design, total
ergy services company, which is responsible for installing, operating storage requirements, and impacts such as the lifetime costs. For
and maintaining the renewable system during the lease in exchange instance, the use of lithium-ion batteries could present a trade-off be
of a monthly fee. The organisation is still in charge of operating and tween the higher upfront costs per capacity and the improved perfor
sourcing fuel for the diesel generator system, if one is used. The mance and lifetime; this could allow a reduction of the storage capacity
ownership of the system is transferred to the organisation after the needed over the system lifetime. Similarly, the type and technology of
end of the lease. the PV panels can also have an impact on the system economic and
• Limited Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), where the organisation environmental performance, the impacts of which are discussed in
agrees with a solar services company the outsourcing of the energy previous literature [59,66]. We treat both renewable generation and
supply except the operation of the diesel generators. The energy storage capacity relatively generically as installed capacity in this study
services company installs, operates and maintains the system during for generalisability; further and more specific consideration would be
the PPA agreement, after which the organisation can renew or cancel needed if our findings were to be translated into a selected type and
the agreement. If cancelled, the renewable assets are removed from number of panels or batteries for implementation purposes.
the facility. Furthermore, the influence of different diesel fuel costs can also be
relevant, considering that displacement settings are often located in
More details about the specifics of each mechanism and comparisons remote areas where the regular supply of fuel might be challenging and
between them are available in Supplementary Information. expensive, with costs significantly over market prices. In this study,
these factors would likely favour the introduction of larger fractions of
renewable generation in the optimum system designs by making diesel
Limitations of the study
supply more expensive and, as a result, renewable systems more cost-
competitive. Therefore, to demonstrate the high potential of sustain
This research aims to provide an informative overview of the possi
able mini-grid systems to displace diesel generation, this study addresses
bilities of energy systems modelling techniques to design sustainable
a more conservative scenario, with constant and relatively affordable
mini-grid systems to improve the electricity provision in humanitarian
diesel fuel prices. Moreover, the high electricity demand over night in
settings, using the case study of Nyabiheke camp in Rwanda. The results
Nyabiheke, due to the water-pumping requirements, also presents a
we present are conditional on the limitations of the data and the analysis
more favourable scenario for diesel in comparison with PV and battery
tools used, and more in-depth assessments would be needed to inform
storage.
the deployment of a specific system in Nyabiheke camp or similar
Finally, the scope of the study is also constrained by the limitations of
displacement contexts. Among the limitations that arise from the anal
the tools used for the analysis. For instance, the analysis in CLOVER does
ysis, we can highlight three: load data used, technology choice and pa
not include the geospatial distribution of the loads in Nyabiheke. While
rameters, and limitations of CLOVER model.
less relevant for the institutional loads, which are relatively concen
First, the load data used for the study is valuable primary data not
trated in the camp and already connected to the incumbent diesel-
widely available in humanitarian contexts but was collected for a rela
powered mini-grid system, it can represent a major factor towards the
tively short period of time and thus may lack the duration needed to
profitability of connected more dispersed productive users around the
represent events such as demand growth over time or demand
camp. Additionally, the approach used in CLOVER to simulate diesel
seasonality.
usage operates diesel generators to fill any unmet demand left by
Secondly, the modelling inputs and parameters selected for the
renewable generation and battery storage upon the desired reliability
analysis have a direct impact on the results and therefore on the most
requirements, and thus might not accurately mimic the operation of
suitable mini-grid system design. These inputs include the technology
some real diesel backup systems. Similarly to other modelling tools, the
choice and cost parameters. An example is the battery technology
demand in CLOVER is assumed to be known over the entire system
selected. For this study we consider lead-acid batteries but using
6
Table 1 Table 2
Equivalent number of additional Tier 2 or Tier 3 businesses that could be Characteristics of optimised PV-battery and hybrid systems compared to
powered in each proposed productive load scenario. incumbent diesel system for the existing energy demand in Nyabiheke, consid
Scenario Objective Equivalent number of Equivalent number of
ering a system lifetime of 15 years with a reliability level of 95%.
business supplied business supplied Incumbent Optimised Optimised PV-
Tier 2 (200 Wh/day) Tier 3 (1000 Wh/day) diesel system hybrid system Battery system
Low Prod Initial level of 185 37 Installed PV capacity – 30 100
business (kWp)
electrification Installed storage – 0 410
Medium Intermediate level 460 92 capacity (kWh)
Prod of business Diesel fuel usage (l) 567,000 388,000 0
electrification Total lifetime cost 446 350 305
High High level of 830 166 (Thousands of $)
Prod business LCUE ($/kWh) 0.557 0.409 0.353
electrification Total lifetime emissions 1554 1127 264
(tCO2eq)
Emissions intensity 1097 719 167
lifetime for optimisation and simulation purposes, which contrasts with (gCO2/kWh)
the high uncertainty and lack of demand data in humanitarian contexts. Additional initial – 13 227
equipment cost
(Thousands of $)
Results and discussion O&M cost without fuel 5 6 6
(Thousands of $/year)
Electricity demand in and incumbent diesel system in Nyabiheke refugee Diesel fuel cost 47 31 0
camp (Thousands of $/year)
Payback of additional – 0.9 years 6.2 years
new equipment cost
As mentioned in the Introduction, the primary electricity demand
present in displacement settings comprises the institutional and opera
tional loads managed by humanitarian organisations, potentially also the expansion of energy provision” we focus on the High Productive
including other productive activities and businesses owned by refugees scenario, identified as the aspirational level of business electrification in
and, occasionally, refugee household loads. Fig. 2.a shows the existing Nyabiheke.
loads connected to the incumbent diesel-powered system in Nyabiheke Higher number of businesses connected results in progressively more
refugee camp, Rwanda. pronounced electricity demand profiles during day-time hours, which
The institutional and operational loads connected include two water concentrate most economic activity in camps. The number of new
pumping stations, a health centre, an office block and various small businesses connected considered in each scenario is considered
administrative buildings. The total electricity demand is dominated by reasonable given the population of Nyabiheke refugee camp, hosting
the two water pumping stations in place, accounting on average for more than 13,000 refugees, and the vibrant organic economic activity
more than 9 kW of the approximately 11 kW of the total load connected present despite the current lack of energy access, which could signifi
to the system, due to the continuous pumping requirements to meet the cantly increase business opportunities.
humanitarian emergency water supply standards [67]. These are fol Following the study framework described earlier, we simulate the
lowed by the health centre, with loads varying from 500 W during day performance of the incumbent diesel system in Nyabiheke under the
hours to 1.5 kW at night-time. Fig. 2.b shows the smaller institutional Baseline scenario load over a lifetime of 15 years considering a 95%
loads, including office blocks and a bank. It also illustrates the existing reliability level. A minimum of 13 kW of diesel generation capacity is
refugee productive users connected to the system, which are currently required to meet the load, and its economic and environmental char
being provided with free electricity at the expense of humanitarian or acteristics are summarised in Table 2. As expected, the cost structure of
ganisations. These include two hair salons, two restaurants with adja the system over its lifetime is heavily dominated by operating diesel fuel
cent shops, a sewing cooperative and a computer lab. The total costs, accounting for 85% of the total lifetime discounted costs and
productive demand is concentrated during daylight hours but does not responsible for 98% of total lifetime GHG emissions, that amount to
exceed 1.4 kW, thus significantly lower than the institutional electricity 103.6 tCO2eq annually.
demand.
As a result of the continuous water pumping requirements, the
overall electricity demand presents a reasonably constant profile over Optimisation and performance of sustainable mini-grid systems
the entire day. This type of demand profile is well suited for diesel
generators, which perform best under continuous load requirements and A fully renewable PV-battery system and a hybrid PV-battery-diesel
high load factors. On the contrary, the mismatch between this constant system are optimised in CLOVER to meet the Baseline scenario demand
load profile and the solar generation profile will translate into higher while minimising the LCUE of the system over its lifetime with a reli
storage requirements to effectively meet the night-time demand through ability level of 95%. Although the fully renewable system would be the
an entirely renewable system. This characteristic load profile suggests environmentally most sustainable solution, a hybrid system is also
that the introduction of a PV-battery-diesel hybrid system in Nyabiheke, considered as humanitarian organisations may require a back-up gen
thus reducing these storage requirements, could be a viable solution. eration source to ensure the reliability of supply to critical loads such as
Fig. 2.a also shows the total electricity demand for the three addi health facilities. We optimise the systems in CLOVER without account
tional scenarios presented in the Methodology. Recent initiatives by ing for the existence of the 13 kW diesel generator presented in the
humanitarian organisations aim to expand the electricity provision to previous section, providing a level playing field for comparisons be
displaced populations, with a particular focus on promoting the tween systems. The main characteristics of the three types of system
connection and development of productive activities. Table 1 represents considered, i.e. the incumbent diesel based system, the fully renewable
the number of businesses that could be powered in each proposed sce system and the hybrid system, are listed in Table 2. Fig. 3 represents the
nario. In the following sections, we analyse different mini-grid designs hourly energy performance of the cost-optimised fully renewable and
for the Baseline scenario. In the section “Mini-grid design approaches for hybrid systems, identifying the average hourly fraction of demand met
by diesel, solar PV and battery storage. As highlighted in the discussion
7
Fig. 3. Average hourly energy performance of optimised mini-grid systems for Baseline scenario load in Nyabiheke refugee camp over their lifetime. (a) Optimised
fully renewable PV-battery system with a renewables fraction of 1. (b) Optimised PV-battery-diesel hybrid system with a renewables fraction of 0.38.
of the limitations, this analysis is specific to the technology choice made

for the mini-grid design with the details of the PV and battery storage
technologies selected available in Tables A.1 and A.2 in Appendix A.
For the fully renewable system, with a renewable fraction of 1, 100
kWp of PV and 410 kWh of storage capacity are required to meet the
demand over its lifetime. Fig. 3.a shows that solar generation meets the
electricity demand during day whilst charging the batteries that supply
the demand during night periods. PV and storage capacity at the
beginning of each re-assessment period are oversized to account for the
degradation of the system over time. Fig. 3.a illustrates this with large
amounts of dumped electricity, that cannot be stored in the batteries
after they are fully charged and referred to as overgeneration, present in
the afternoon. The cost structure of the system is dominated by the
upfront investment in PV and battery storage capacity, with new
equipment costs accounting for 83% of total lifetime costs of the system.
Similarly, and due to the complete displacement of diesel use, 84% of
total lifetime GHG emissions are associated with the embedded emis
sions from the manufacture of the installed equipment.
For the hybrid system, the resultant cost-optimised renewable frac
tion is 0.38 is achieved through 30 kWp of solar PV generation with no
initial battery storage capacity installed. Only 10 kWh are installed after
the first re-assessment period and due to the reduction in battery storage
costs over time. In this case, Fig. 3.b shows how solar generation
completely displaces the use of diesel during daylight hours, while the
diesel generator is mainly used to meet the remaining demand during Fig. 4. Total costs, total GHG emissions and total diesel fuel use savings over a
night hours. The reduced storage capacity follows the same char system’s 15-year lifetime for the optimised PV-battery and hybrid mini-grid
ge–discharge patterns as in the fully renewable system, and the designs compared to the incumbent diesel system present in Nyabiheke.
considerably lower PV capacity installed results in reduced over
generation during the day. The use of diesel remains integral in this of overgeneration during the day and higher levels of dumped elec
system, with diesel fuel costs accounting for 73% of total lifetime costs tricity. This excess generation could potentially be made available to
and 92% of total lifetime GHG emissions. power additional loads and activities during the day, such as productive
We observe that diesel usage during day hours can be conveniently uses and businesses.
and cost-efficiently displaced by solar generation alone. However, large
capacities of solar generation and battery storage are needed to Economic and environmental benefits of sustainable mini-grid systems
completely displace diesel usage during the night while providing high
supply reliability. This makes the option of using diesel over night more Technical, economic and environmental dimensions need to be
economical over the first 5-year assessment period evaluated in CLOVER considered in the decision-making process to select the most suitable
and highlights an impact of short-term budget cycles typical of hu system design. Fig. 4 shows the net savings over the 15-year system
manitarian agencies. Larger renewable systems also incur higher levels lifetime in total costs, GHG emissions and diesel fuel used, for the hybrid
8
increases in the system capacity, resulting in pronounced increases in

upfront costs and the LCUE of the system. For reliability levels over 99%,
the LCUE of the fully renewable system exceeds the LCUE of the corre
sponding hybrid system. Therefore, we consider a reliability level of
95% as the best compromise between the security of supply and the cost
implications for the system design process.
Sensitivity analysis to the renewable fraction
The previous analysis features a hybrid system, with a renewable

fraction of 0.38, which yields the lowest LCUE over the first assessment
period of 5 years. This is accompanied by a fully renewable system
(renewable fraction of 1), which yields the lowest LCUE over the 15-year
system’s lifetime. This event highlights the timescale dependence of the
system net costs, and the importance of the timeframes considered in the
system design choices. These two systems might serve as a simplistic
representation of short and long-term approaches that humanitarian
actors can take to the design of sustainable mini-grid systems. None
Fig. 5. Total cost savings over lifetime (green line), additional new equipment theless, there is a continuous spectrum of hybrid systems with renewable
cost (red line), GHGs emissions offset over lifetime (horizontal axis) and mar
fractions between 0.38 and 1, whose cost structures and performance
ginal abatement cost (orange box) for different renewable fractions (blue box)
could better suit the financial resources and environmental objectives of
of hybrid systems optimised for the existing load in Nyabiheke.
specific organisations operating in displacement settings.
Under the same optimisation conditions, Fig. 5 illustrates the eco
and fully renewable systems presented in the previous section in com
nomic and environmental performance of a range of hybrid systems
parison with the incumbent diesel system in Nyabiheke, considering a
optimised for different renewable fractions from 0.38 to 1, considering a
reliability level of 95% in all cases. A detailed breakdown of the main
95% reliability level over a 15-year lifetime for all. The complete
economic and environmental metrics of each system is presented in
spectrum of hybrid systems and the fully renewable system present
Table 2; as indicated by the limitations, the specific benefits provided by
negative MACs. This indicates that they can all meet the electricity de
different mini-grid designs are subject to the technology considered.
mand requirements with both lower costs and emissions than the
Fig. 4 shows how both sustainable mini-grid designs present lower
incumbent diesel system over their lifetime. Lower renewable fraction
lifetime costs and emissions than the diesel system. This is due to the
hybrid systems present more negative MACs, meaning that they bring
partial or full displacement of diesel fuel use, which involves high
greater cost reductions per tonne of emissions offset. The MAC of hybrid
operating costs and environmental impact. The fully renewable system
systems experiences a diminishing return at higher renewable fractions,
yields the best economic and environmental performance in the long
due to the cost associated with the increasing storage capacity needed to
term, presenting the lowest LCUE, total lifetime costs (reduced by 32%)
displace higher fractions of diesel used overnight. Therefore, lower
and total lifetime emissions (reduced by 83%), while completely dis
renewable fraction hybrid systems appear as more cost-effective off
placing the use of diesel fuel compared to the incumbent system.
setting diesel use emissions than more renewables-dominated systems.
However, to unlock these long-term benefits, an additional initial in
Fig. 5 also represents the trade-off between long-term objectives and
vestment of $227,000 to deploy the system is needed, which is paid back
short-term constraints characteristic of humanitarian assistance. The
in 6.2 years due to offsetting diesel fuel costs. This upfront cost repre
long-term objectives include the provision of clean and affordable
sents a significant barrier for the deployment of this type of system,
electricity supply [13], represented by the highest lifetime GHGs emis
considering the funding shortage and short budgeting cycles under
sions savings and total lifetime cost savings possible. The short-term
which humanitarian originations frequently operate.
constraints are associated with the difficult access to capital by most
The hybrid system presents diminished but still significant savings in
humanitarian organisations and represented by the high upfront in
total lifetime costs (22%) and fuel use (33%) compared to the incumbent
vestments required to introduce capital-intensive renewable energy as
diesel system. Despite this, the displacement of diesel use during
sets. It is worth highlighting that any level of hybridisation of the
daylight hours without relevant storage requirements only requires an
system, accounting for the additional investment required in renewable
additional initial investment in new equipment of $13,000, which pre
assets, will bring total cost savings over the lifetime of the system in
sents a payback time of 0.9 years. This investment may be more acces
comparison with the incumbent diesel system. This is the case even
sible to the overstretched financial resources available for humanitarian
when the additional upfront costs are higher than the final lifetime
organisations. When considering the cumulative total cost of both sus
savings, being the former accounted for in the latter.
tainable designs, the hybrid system remains the most economical solu
This trade-off between short-term investment barriers and long-term
tion during the first 9.8 years of operation, after which it is overtaken by
savings provides a useful comparison to guide decision making ac
the renewable system.
cording to the resources and objectives of humanitarian actors. The
As stated earlier, a minimum reliability level of 95% over the system
system design process in displacement contexts is heavily influenced by
lifetime is considered for this study. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis
the financial resources available, the project timeframe and the capacity
of the system reliability requirements was carried out and can is avail
of involved actors to handle the asset management risks. It is widely
able in the Supplementary Information. This analysis shows that the
acknowledged that fully renewable systems would bring the highest cost
reliability requirements have a reduced impact in the LCUE of the diesel
and emissions savings in the long term for humanitarian actors, but have
and hybrid systems as a result of the generation flexibility provided by
associated much higher upfront costs. Depending on access to capital
diesel generators. However, for the fully renewable system, the addi
available for organisations, hybrid systems can bring significant mid and
tional generation and storage capacity required to meet the demand
long-term emissions savings in a more cost-effective manner than fully
with increasing reliability requirements translates into a significant in
renewable systems, also benefitting of reduced initial investments
crease of the final LCUE of the system. This increase is steady for reli
required.
ability levels under 95%. Nevertheless, for higher reliability levels, the
For the existing electricity demand in Nyabiheke, the three following
variability in the solar resource requires progressively more significant
systems can be identified as potential solutions considering different
9
levels of access to capital for humanitarian organisations involved: Table 3

Characteristics short-term (5-year timeframe) and static and modular long-term
• Very low access to capital: Minimum LCUE hybrid system over 5 years (15-year timeframe) design approaches for a hybrid system when simulated for a
with renewable fraction of 0.38, representing an additional initial growing load profile over 15 years.
investment of $13,000 compared to the incumbent diesel system, Short-term Long-term static Long-term
with a payback of 0.9 years. approach approach modular approach
• Moderate access to capital: Higher renewable fraction hybrid system, Renewable Undersized, initial Initially oversized, Adaptative,
0.7, representing an additional initial investment of $106,000 with a system size deployment initial deployment phased
payback of 4.2 years. deployment
Average diesel Increasing Increasing, initially Relatively
• High access to capital: Fully renewable system, where an additional supply lower constant
initial investment of $227,000 yields a maximum of $142,000 of Renewable Decreasing Initially higher, High and
total savings during the system lifetime, with a payback of 6.2 years. fraction reducing relatively constant
LCUE Highest, High, large upfront Lowest
increasing diesel investments
Operational implications of the technology mix
costs
Wasted energy Very low Initially large Relatively
In spite of the central role of the cost implications of the technology constant
mix and level of hybridisation, the associated technical implications can Asset Very high Initially low High
utilisation
have a significant impact on the operational sustainability of the pro
Lifetime GHG Very high Low Lowest
jects. The complex nature of humanitarian and displacement settings emissions
also presents multiple operational constraints and challenges that in
fluence the system design further than its purely economic and envi
ronmental performance. For instance, for hybrid systems, the hours of by the system to maintain the reliability of the electricity supply. The
operation of the diesel generator might be constrained for technical or corresponding diesel fuel supply variations are dependent on the
noise pollution reasons. Such a situation would occur when the system is renewable fraction of the system: this ranges from ±5% for low
not capable of running reliably for more than a specified period per day, renewable fraction systems to ±20% for very high renewable fractions.
or when humanitarian organisations try to reduce the disruption caused However, the monthly variation of diesel supply in litres is relatively
by noisy diesel generators during specific hours, such as at night. small across all hybridisation levels, enclosed in a range of ±80 l range
We evaluate the probability of using the diesel generator for each per month. More information about the impact on diesel supply re
hour of the day for different hybridisation levels. Higher renewable quirements is available in the Supplementary Information. Although the
fractions directly translate into fewer hours of diesel generator operation renewable fraction is not a critical factor in the variability of the amount
per day. For instance, a 0.38 renewable fraction system utilises the diesel of diesel being supplied, this issue must be considered in the general
generator an average of 16.6 h per day, while these are reduced to 7.8 h operations of humanitarian organisations to ensure the reliability of the
for a 0.7 renewable fraction system and 1.8 h for a 0.95 renewable electricity supply: if not, this could affect diesel supply contractual
fraction system. It can be highlighted that while more diesel-based agreements, for example.
systems switch on diesel generators earlier in the evening, most sys
tems operate the diesel generator until similar hours in the morning, Mini-grid design approaches for the expansion of energy provision
corresponding with sunrise. Considering that diesel generators are
frequently oversized, the renewable fraction can also impact the load Short-term design approaches in humanitarian contexts
factors at which they operate. This can result into poorer fuel efficiencies Considering the current efforts to expand the electricity supply in
and higher fuel consumption levels. More information about the impact refugee camps to displaced populations, with a focus on productive and
of different renewable fractions in the asset utilisation is available in the income-generating activities, we introduced three additional demand
Supplementary Information. scenarios shown in Fig. 2a. However, despite the short timeframes to
Other events such the seasonal variability of the renewable resource which humanitarian organisations are usually bound, we have also
can also affect the output of the renewable system, as well as its highlighted the importance of considering the long-term evolution of the
degradation over time. These can therefore impact the diesel supply electricity demand in the initial design phases of systems. Short-term
requirements in the case of hybrid systems, with the corresponding planned systems may suffer from inadequate maintenance or unex
impact on the logistical and operational activities of humanitarian ac pected demand growth. Table 3 summarises the main characteristics of
tors. In the case of fully renewable systems where no diesel generation is the short-term approach, as well as two alternative strategies discussed.
available, these events would translate into shortages in the reliability We simulate the impact of connecting an unplanned growing load
level if not adequately accounted for in the system design phase. Most over 15 years to different renewable fraction systems, initially optimised
practitioners are aware of the technological degradation of PV and to supply a constant load – corresponding to the present load in Nya
battery storage systems over time, and these processes are accounted for biheke – over five years, without any re-assessment or re-sizing of the
in the optimisation process used in CLOVER. The re-assessment of the system after its initial deployment (the “short-term” approach). The final
system and the capacity replacement required to maintain the desired load connected corresponds to High Productive scenario load, equiva
system performance over its lifetime are included in the previous anal lent to the additional connection of 166 Tier 3 businesses. The connec
ysis. However, there is little understanding about the operational impact tion of additional productive users considered is progressive over time,
of the seasonal variability of renewable resources in the reliability of proliferating after Year 2 and being completed by Year 10 of simulation.
renewable mini-grid systems, or in the case of hybrid systems, about the Under these conditions, the performance over 15 years of a 0.7
impact on the diesel supply requirements to reliably meet the demand. renewable fraction hybrid system and a fully renewable system is shown
In Nyabiheke, situated in Northern Rwanda, the solar energy in Fig. 5.a and 5.b respectively, labelled as the short-term approach. Two
resource experiences a variation of approximately ±15% during the additional long-term design approaches, discussed later, are also
main dry season running from April until October and a smaller dry included. A reliability level of 95% is considered for all the systems
season occurring in December. During the rainy seasons, from October simulated. Fig. 5.a and 5.b show the growing load over time, together
to December and January to April, the solar energy supplied can be 10% with the average wasted energy and the level of diesel energy supplied in
lower than average. Over the year, the variation in solar resource is the different design approaches. For the short-term approach, we
counterbalanced by the reverse variation in the diesel energy supplied observe that the unexpected demand growth over time, in addition to
10
Fig. 6. Average daily demand load, diesel energy supplied and wasted energy for a) a hybrid system with a renewable fraction of 0.7 and b) a fully renewable system
under three different design approaches (short-term, static long-term and modular long-term) when meeting a growing load over 15 years.
the degradation of the system capacity – initially designed for just 5 120% respectively, reducing the final renewable fraction from 1.0 to
years – translates into increases in the diesel energy supply needed to 0.78. This can pose challenges in cases where the diesel generator is
meet the demand maintaining the same level of reliability. This growth removed or not present due to the initial aim of completely supplying
of diesel energy supplied exactly matches the demand growth plus the the demand through clean energy sources. It also highlights the value of
progressive degradation of the system after Year 5 of simulation. As a the flexibility that traditional diesel generators can offer when com
result, the eventualities not considered in the short-term approach have plementing cleaner energy technologies to ensure more resilient elec
an impact on the performance of the system compared to its initial tricity supply.
functionality.
For instance, under the short-term approach a system designed to Options for long-term design approaches
have a renewable fraction of 0.7 for the first five years falls to just 0.54 These observations call for the design of sustainable mini-grid sys
over its entire lifetime. This increases the LCUE of the system by 8% and tems in displacement settings to be conducted accounting for eventu
the emissions intensity of the electricity supplied by 37% as a result of alities such as the increase of the electricity demand over time. Despite
the higher diesel usage to meet this unexpected load growth. Due to the the short-term nature of humanitarian assistance, this reinforces the
operational flexibility of diesel generators, the system can absorb the need to consider longer timeframes in system design phases to ensure
increase in demand over time if sufficient diesel generation capacity is in that the system performance falls within operational and financial ca
place: this case is common in displacement settings, where oversized pabilities of organisations in the long-term.
diesel generators have been the norm to date. Unexpected load growth To achieve this, we considered two different approaches to design a
does not directly translate into a loss of reliability in the electricity system that meets a growing demand with a required level of reliability
supply, but significantly worsens the economic and environmental over the entire lifetime of the system:
performance of the system. Additionally, logistic and operational chal
lenges associated with varying levels of diesel supply needed might arise • Static approach: A system deployed in a one-off installation and
over its lifetime. designed to cover the final demand requirements at the end of the
In the case of the fully renewable system, represented in Fig. 6.b, the system lifetime.
unexpected connection of additional loads would translate into a drop in • Modular approach: A modular system, re-assessed and re-sized at
reliability. However, humanitarian actors in charge of energy provision specific points to adapt to the growing demand, introducing the
in camps would likely not allow the connection of these loads if the additional generation and storage capacity required to meet the
security of the supply were at risk. In a context of lack of access to capital existing load during each period.
to expand the renewable system, the most straightforward solution is the
progressive (re-)introduction of diesel generation over time to meet the As mentioned earlier, Fig. 6.a also displays both long-term ap
demand growth while maintaining the system reliability. proaches for a hybrid system optimised to meet the growing demand
Fig. 6.b illustrates this event under the short-term approach. After 15 profile from the Baseline scenario to High Productive scenario with a
years, the resulting increase of LCUE and emissions intensity compared reliability level of 95% and a renewable fraction of 0.7. It shows the
to the initially planned system for a five-year timeframe are of 17% and average wasted energy and the level of diesel energy supplied daily for
11
both approaches. The corresponding approaches for a fully renewable Table 4

system with a renewable fraction of 1.0 are shown in Fig. 6.b. Discounted cashflows assumed by humanitarian organisations for different de
For the fully renewable system, the static approach results in much livery models proposed to implement a hybrid system optimised for the existing
higher wasted energy levels (+25%) in comparison with the modular energy demand in Nyabiheke with a renewable fraction of 0.7, compared with
approach. This increase is due to the need to have an initially hugely the cashflows associated to the use of the incumbent diesel system over a period
of 15 years. Values in thousands of US dollars.
oversized system to account for the system degradation over time in
addition to the demand growth. The oversizing of the static system re Baseline Purchase Lease Lease Limited Limited
Diesel to own to own PPA (5 PPA (15
sults in inferior technical performance and asset utilisation, leading to
System (5 (10 years) years)
higher costs (+25% total lifetime costs) compared to the modular sys years) years)
tem. A complete table with the system performance comparison for both
CAPEX 0 107 0 0 0 0
long-term approaches is available in Tables A.3 and A.4 in the Appendix.
Year 1
For the 0.7 renewable fraction hybrid system, the static approach CAPEX 0 13 13 0 0 0
presents 5% higher cumulative costs and 12% higher new equipment Year 5
costs over 15 years. However, despite having the same levels of diesel CAPEX 0 5 5 5 0 0
Year
fuel used, the average levels of wasted energy are 14% lower than in the
10
modular approach. This is because, although the static approach pre Annual 52 23 57 55 45 44
sents an initially oversized system, the level of overgeneration is OPEX
significantly reduced as the load grows and the system degrades over Total 214 198 238 227 188 183
time, compared to the modular counterpart. These differences reinforce Cost
Year 5
the importance of undertaking comprehensive energy demand assess
Total 344 268 308 367 303 295
ments to evaluate growing electricity demand and the potential Cost
connection of productive users. They also advocate for a multi-stage Year
approach that allows the expansion of the system alongside the de 10
Total 423 310 350 409 375 364
mand growth.
Cost
The sizes of the systems discussed, together with the analogous Year
analysis presented here for a growing demand profile from the Baseline 15
scenario to the High Productive scenario, are available for the Low
Productive and Medium Productive scenarios in the Supplementary
Information. case is to consider that the connected productive users are charged at the
current Rwanda national grid tariff (204 RWF/kWh or 0.224 $/kWh).
Socio-economic implications of connecting productive users Under this assumption, a significant fraction (69%) of the additional
The socio-economic benefits of expanding the electricity supply to costs of the modular system designed to connect the productive users
productive users in camps are widely promoted. However, the viability compared to the initial hybrid system designed only for the existing
of the additional investments required is crucial in the current climate of institutional loads in Nyabiheke can be recovered in 15 years, with a
funding shortages and perceived risk for the engagement of the private shortfall of only around $29,000. On the other hand, for the static
sector in the energy supply in displacement settings. The need of approach system, the higher upfront investments required results in a
recovering such additional investments collides with the aim of lower return of the additional investment associated over the 15 years,
providing electricity to refugee prices at an affordable price, without with only 57% recovered and a shortfall of $50,000. This difference is
giving them a favour in comparison to surrounding host communities, even starker for the fully renewable system, where the discounted rev
which can generate undesirable tensions. If the renewable energy enue from productive users connected over 15 years increases to 85%
infrastructure to power humanitarian operations is introduced, the (with a $11,000 shortfall) and 37% (with a $109,000 shortfall) of the
expansion required to extend the electricity supply to refugees does not additional investment required to deploy the expanded modular and
necessarily compromise the cost-effectiveness of the system nor the static systems respectively.
profitability for private sector players, assuming that the system is Humanitarian actors should consider the compatibility of the desired
suitably designed and implemented. system characteristics and design approaches with the existing funding
The load profile of productive users, who concentrate their activity structure and the resources available. While the modular approach
during day hours (Fig. 2b), generally matches well with the solar gen might suit better long-term sustainable practices, it requires closer
eration profile. This pairing proportionally reduces the need for addi monitoring and phased deployment. The static approach can adjust
tional storage and can improve the overall cost-effectiveness of the better to contexts where one-off funding is provided by donors at the
system. We have calculated the payback times of the systems presented initial stage of the project, and consequent interventions are less likely.
in Fig. 6 to power additional businesses compared with the use of diesel The search for pathways to unlock longer-term and more cost-effective
generators only to power the growing demand. Our analysis shows that solutions are set to play a crucial role in the transition of humanitari
paybacks of modular, sustainable systems designed for progressively an assistance towards a cleaner energy supply.
connecting productive users – resulting in a more day-centred load
profile – are shorter than the corresponding paybacks of systems Mini-grid delivery models in humanitarian settings
designed only to meet a constant demand profile, like the institutional
demand presented earlier for the incumbent loads. These payback times As presented in the Methodology, the engagement and establishment
are reduced from 4.2 years to 3.3 years for the case of the 0.7 renewable of contractual mechanisms with the private sector is crucial in the suc
fraction system, and from 6.2 years to 6.0 years for the fully renewable cessful scale-up of sustainable energy solutions in humanitarian settings.
system. For the static approach, however, the initial oversizing of the This section presents a preliminary cash flow analysis of the cost im
system and the lower asset utilisation translate into significantly longer plications for humanitarian organisations associated with the deploy
paybacks, of 6.6 and 10.2 years for the hybrid and fully renewable ment of the sustainable mini-grid systems presented in the sensitivity
systems respectively. analysis section, under the previous delivery models outlined. Although
In order to prevent tensions with surrounding host communities the provision of clean electricity to promote productive activities is
while ensuring the financial sustainability of the projects, refugee desirable and potentially profitable, as shown earlier, this analysis fo
business should pay a fair price for their electricity supply. A reasonable cuses on the introduction of renewable technologies to power
12
humanitarian operations only as a first step towards the provision of of the renewable energy assets installed is more reduced, shorter-term
broader clean energy supply in humanitarian settings. agreements such as a lease to own of five years or recurrent five-year
The system selected for this analysis is the hybrid system with a PPA agreements facilitate the introduction of renewable generation at
renewable fraction of 0.7. Table 4 presents the discounted cashflows the lowest cost possible, close to the costs of purchasing and operating
assumed by humanitarian organisations for different delivery models the system by organisations. For higher renewable fraction systems, the
compared to the operation of the current diesel system. These models longer-term agreements allow the outsourcing of the higher-risk system
include purchase, lease to own and limited PPA. As previously operation and energy supply. PPAs appear as an economical and effi
mentioned, humanitarian organisations have a limited capability to cient solution to remove the risk associated with the ownership and
undertake long-term investments. Therefore, different timeframes for management of large renewable assets in displacement settings.
the lease to own and PPA agreements are studied to highlight the po It is worth noticing that the results of this analysis are susceptible to
tential benefits of committing to longer-term agreements. specific parameters such as the cost of the diesel fuel. This study con
Discounted cashflows assumed by organisations calculated consid siders the national petrol price for Rwanda (1.192 $/l) (36). However,
ering different rates of return on investment (ROI) for the energy ser the remote location of many refugee camps often involves significantly
vices company under the current Rwandan Corporate Tax Rate of 30% high costs to transport and supply the diesel to these isolated locations.
[68] and an interest rate of 9.5% [39,69]. For the lease to own of five Table A.7 in the Appendix represents the cashflow implications of a 0.7
years, we consider a 20% ROI. A 40% ROI is used for the lease to own of renewable system considering a 20% diesel price increase. As expected,
10 years. The limited PPA of five years is designed to recover 95% of the the increased fuel cost further improves the business case for the
costs of the system deployed by Year 5 for the energy services company. introduction of renewable systems in humanitarian contexts. Further
This agreement can be recurrently extended over the 15-year lifetime of more, the benefits that contractual mechanisms such as PPA and Lease to
the system at the same rates. The Limited PPA of 15 years considers an own models bring in comparison to the system purchase are also
ROI of 20% for the energy services company. enhanced under higher diesel price scenarios.
For the 0.7 renewable fraction system, all of the proposed delivery Most successful projects to date have received financial support to
models present lower total lifetime costs over 15 years than the overcome the high upfront cost of renewable assets and ensure the
incumbent diesel system. Besides, they also provide the environmental profitability of the mini-grids. This support is also key to facilitate the
benefits of displacing 70% of diesel use, both in terms of GHG emissions engagement of private sector players. To illustrate this, Table A.8 in the
and local pollution levels. The purchase option presents the lowest total Appendix shows the impact of subsidising 50% of the upfront in
lifetime costs, but the highest upfront investments required. vestments required in renewable assets for a 0.7 renewable fraction
In contrast, lease to own and PPA models remove the need for initial system. The financial support can dramatically reduce the costs assumed
investments on renewable assets in exchange of a monthly fee. Monthly for organisations while also increasing the profit margins for energy
fees and annual costs under lease to own and PPA agreements are services companies. Public financing is already a valuable tool to
significantly higher than the ones corresponding to the purchase of the introduce and scale-up clean energy solutions in rural off-grid contexts,
system. In return, the operation and maintenance of the renewable as and it can also help to remove the uncertainty associated with the in
sets are fully outsourced to the energy services company, removing the vestment in renewable infrastructure in humanitarian contexts.
operational risk from humanitarian organisations. Furthermore, for PPA
models, the annual operational costs are lower than the costs of oper Conclusions and recommendations
ating the incumbent diesel system. For lease to own models, despite
being slightly higher, they present the advantage of acquiring the Potential of sustainable mini-grids in humanitarian settings
ownership of the renewable assets after the end of the lease.
If organisations are interested in the ownership of the system in the Despite increasing environmental awareness and recent initiatives
long-term, the lease to own of five years presents 9.5% higher annual from the humanitarian sector, the use of fossil fuels for energy supply in
costs than the operation of the diesel system during the first five years. humanitarian operations remains central. The successful deployment of
The lease to own of 10 years reduces this increase to 5.7%, further renewable energy solutions has been hampered by the overstretched
benefiting from five additional years of outsourced renewable energy resources of humanitarian actors and the uncertain regulatory frame
provision. However, the ownership and operation of large and unmov works around humanitarian settings.
able assets is often challenging for humanitarian organisations, whose We analysed several possible sustainable mini-grid designs for the
risks are intensified by the temporary nature and the long-term uncer case study of Nyabiheke refugee camp in Rwanda. When operating
tainty perceived around displacement settings. under very limited timeframes and financial capabilities, a diesel system
If organisations are not interested in the ownership of the system or might be the most economical and straightforward solution, aligned
the in-house management of the energy supply, PPA models present an with previous findings by the Moving Energy Initiative [11]. However,
economical and practical solution. A recurrent five-year Limited PPA we have shown that fully renewable mini-grid systems, completely
presents 13% lower costs than the operation of the incumbent diesel displacing diesel use through solar generation and battery storage,
system and a 15-year Limited PPA brings further annual cost reductions provide the best economic and environmental performance in the long-
up to 15%. Alongside cost savings, organisations benefit from fully term. For the case of Nyabiheke, these savings could represent up to 32%
outsourced renewable energy provision without the risk associated with of total costs and 83% of total GHG emissions over 15 years. Per contra,
asset ownership and management in the long-term. they involve substantially higher upfront investments and longer
Table 4 shows how the possibility of committing to longer-term payback times, 6.2 years for the case of Nyabiheke. Thus, these paybacks
agreements, both through lease to own or PPA models, can reduce the may be beyond the financial capabilities of humanitarian actors who are
annual costs of introducing sustainable mini-grid systems. Moreover, generally unable to commit to multi-year arrangements and working on
these longer-term agreements would facilitate the engagement of pri tight annual budgets, as highlighted in previous studies [8,11,32].
vate energy services providers by providing greater certainties about the As an alternative, the hybridisation of renewable systems using
returns on their investments. already present diesel generation can provide a successful compromise
The corresponding analysis for the hybrid system with a renewable solution to meet the current electricity needs in displacement settings in
fraction of 0.38 and the fully renewable system is available in Tables A.5 more cost-effectively. Hybrid solar-battery-diesel systems benefit from
and A.6 in the Appendix. For lower renewable fractions, where the size lower upfront investments in renewable assets required, translating in
13
shorter paybacks (some as low as 0.9 years for the case of Nyabiheke) Recommendations for practitioners, private actors and policy-makers
that can better match the timeframes and access to capital of humani
tarian actors. Once the requirements of the system on the ground are The analysis presented in this work can help humanitarian agencies,
specified, further research could be carried out to consider more specific private actors and policy-makers to quantify the widely acknowledged
PV and battery technologies available locally for practical benefits that renewable technologies can bring in humanitarian con
implementation. texts. Supported by a detailed techno-economic analysis, this study ad
Our analysis shows that (albeit only partially) seizing the environ dresses the research gap highlighted by the Global Plan of Action for
mental benefits of renewable energy, hybrid systems are a more cost- Sustainable Energy Solutions in Situations of Displacement [10] and the
effective way of offsetting diesel GHG emissions when compared to Moving Energy Initiative [8,32] by providing quantitative evidence on
fully renewable systems. This is owed to the lower energy storage re possible design strategies, delivery models and funding practices needed
quirements that translate into comparatively lower upfront investments, to successfully scale-up clean energy systems in displacement contexts.
also leading to lower marginal abatement costs for diesel emissions. Beyond the close cooperation of the aforementioned stakeholders, an
These were found to be negative over the system lifetime for any fraction underpinning condition to unlock a widespread adoption of cleaner
of renewable energy introduced in the system, saving both costs and energy in displacement settings is the establishment of favourable policy
emissions compared to exclusively using diesel as at present. When and regulatory frameworks. These are key to de-risk the investment in
planning the introduction of hybrid mini-grid systems, the evaluation of long-term energy infrastructure in protracted humanitarian contexts.
multiple levels of hybridisation can also help to adapt to the existing International agreements such as the CRRF and improved refugee rights
operational constraints in diesel generator operation and fuel supply provide a base for the integration of displaced communities in the socio-
logistics. Furthermore, it can inform potential operational disruptions in economic life of host countries. However, their explicit introduction in
the future. national electrification agendas remains crucial to provide them with
The introduction of renewable infrastructure in displacement set equitable livelihood opportunities. Both in displacement and rural
tings also presents an opportunity to expand the electricity supply to electrification terms, Rwanda presents a noticeably progressive frame
displaced populations, that at present is widely inexistent or inadequate. work, and some efforts could be replicated in other host countries.
Aligned with current efforts to integrate displaced communities in the For humanitarian actors who want to introduce renewable technol
socio-economic life of host countries, we provide evidence on the ben ogies to power their operations, the most suitable system design will
efits of the expansion of the electricity supply to productive users, sup depend on their specific financial resources and environmental objec
porting the commitments made by UNHCR and its Clean Energy tives. In cases where there is no previous energy infrastructure and the
Challenge [13,15]. This expansion can improve the asset utilisation and logistics and cost of diesel supply are challenging, fully renewable sys
cost-efficiency of the overall system in addition to generating economic tems present the cleanest and most economical solution in the long-
and livelihoods opportunities for displaced communities. This can result term, given the access to the required capital. This is also the case
in shorter payback times of the initial investment (from 4.2 to 3.3 years where the continuity of the project in the foreseeable future is expected.
for a 0.7 renewable fraction system and from 6.2 to 6.0 years for a fully On the other hand, detailed energy demand assessments and the access
renewable system). This is due to the favourable match of the productive to the required technical expertise will be even more crucial to ensure
activities load profiles with the solar generation profile. that reliability of the electricity supply is not affected over time due to
During design phases it is crucial to account for the potential system failures or load growth, aligned with the findings of the
expansion of the load connected to the system over its lifetime. This Renewable Energy for Refugees project in Rwanda [60].
prevision is essential to ensure appropriate performance and the security Hybrid systems appear as a more appropriate option where diesel
of the supply in the long-term. To maximise the benefits of the extension generators are already present, and organisations have limited capacity
of the electricity supply, undertaking detailed and recurrent energy as to face up-front investments. Their shorter payback periods also make
sessments is fundamental, such as the ones carried out by Practical Ac them more convenient to interventions with a limited timeframe. These
tion in displacement settings in Rwanda [26,60]. Continuous results support the high-level findings presented by the Moving Energy
assessments allow the adaptation of the system capacity to the poten Initiative and Energy 4 Impact for displaced settings in Kenya [8]. In this
tially growing electricity demand, avoiding widely oversized systems study, we deepen in the analysis of different renewable fractions for
and ensuring a stable performance over the project lifetime. For the case mini-grid design, showing that the most appropriate level of hybrid
of Nyabiheke, a one-off initial installation of a fully renewable system isation — whether it involves the displacement of daytime or higher
can present 20% higher lifetime costs and 25% lower asset utilisation fractions of diesel usage — needs to be carefully assessed. Consider
when compared to a five-year recurrent system expansion. ations as the existing financial resources, environmental objectives and
In cases where the existing regulatory framework can provide cer the operational implications on the diesel supply and use will determine
tainty around the long-term status of displacement settings, and where the optimal technology mix.
humanitarian organisations can commit to multi-year arrangements, the We have shown that humanitarian actors can benefit from the
engagement of private sector actors can play a crucial role in the engagement of the private sector through the temporary or permanent
deployment and scale-up of these solutions. This can be achieved outsourcing of their energy supply, taking advantage of the private
through different contractual mechanisms that can mutually benefit sector technical expertise needed to successfully design, operate and
humanitarian players and energy services providers. Building on the manage renewable energy assets. Tailored contractual mechanisms can
work of Kube Energy in South Sudan [39], we analyse some of these provide a best-fit solution for the varying interests and resources of or
contractual mechanisms and quantify their benefits for a wider range of ganisations. Lease to own models are suitable for organisations who
scenarios and systems. Our findings support the claim that the have a long-term or permanent presence in these settings and want to
outsourcing of the electricity supply removes the upfront financial acquire ownership of the assets. They are particularly cost-effective for
barriers and reduces the asset management risk from humanitarian reduced renewable capacities installed. PPA models are more advanta
players, benefitting from the technical and financial capacity of private geous for capital-intensive higher renewable fraction systems, reducing
actors. These, in turn, receive a stable revenue source and access to a the risk associated with the ownership of large long-life assets in camps.
potentially large refugee customer base, maximising the financial and Longer-term agreements can reduce the monthly fees assumed by hu
social sustainability of the projects. manitarian actors, providing evidence to support the assumptions made
by Kube Energy and the Moving Energy Initiative [39]. This is especially
remarkable for high renewable fractions, by paying off the high upfront
cost of the energy assets over a longer timeframe, whilst providing
14
longer revenue certainty for private actors. Table A1

In this sense, a restructuring of funding mechanisms and donor Main modelling inputs used for the analysis in CLOVER.
practices is also needed to allow multi-year financing initiatives and
Modelling parameters Value Units Notes
facilitate the engagement of private actors. Donors who can provide
capital can drastically reduce the cost of these contractual mechanisms Optimisation period 15 years
Re-assessment intervals 5 years
for humanitarian organisations by subsidising upfront costs. This can Sufficiency criteria 0.05 – Blackout percentage
also increase the profit margins for private actors and thus make their Optimisation criteria – $/kWh System LCUE
participation more appealing and less risky. We have also shown the Technologies available – – PV, diesel, battery
advantages of allocating donor capital to phased deployments and storage
PV initial capacity Various kWp Dependant on system
recurrent energy demand assessments, instead of one-off deployments.
PV capacity step (optimisation) 5 kWp 5 kWp resolution
This approach can improve asset utilisation, avoiding initially oversized Storage initial capacity Various kWh Dependant on system
systems and better adapting to future energy supply requirements. Storage capacity step 5 kWh 5 kWh resolution
For private sector energy providers entering humanitarian settings, (optimisation)
the search of alternative financing sources can facilitate addressing the
upfront investments and mitigating the risk of investing in displacement
settings. These include peer-to-peer lending and crowdfunding, in Table A2
addition to partnerships with humanitarian organisations to access Technical, financial and environmental inputs used for the analysis in CLOVER.
development funds. When willing to expand their energy supply to
Technical parameters Value Units Notes
displaced communities, scoping assessments of energy needs to identify
PV azimuth 180 South facing
the potential customer base of productive users are crucial to informing
PV tilt angle 10 From horizontal
appropriate system expansions. Similarly, facilitating financing and PV lifetime 20 years From [53]
access to productive appliances can stimulate local energy demand and Battery depth of discharge 50 % From [70]
improve the profitability of mini-grids. Battery round-trip efficiency 90 % From [70]
Energy provision is increasingly being recognised as a critical Battery C rate 0.33 – From [71]
Battery lifetime 1500 cycles From [70]
enabler of humanitarian assistance and humanitarian organisations are
Diesel generator consumption 0.4 l/h per kW From [72]
pledging to introduce cleaner energy sources in their operations. How Diesel generator minimum load factor 35 % From [72]
ever, higher levels of coordination and the diffusion of data and evi Power conversion efficiency 95 % From [53]
dence about the potential of clean energy technologies in humanitarian Network transmission efficiency 95 % From [71]
settings among private actors and governments are needed. Through this Financial parameters Value Units Notes
work, we have provided an initial assessment of the substantial benefits PV module 500 $/kWp From [59,73]
of renewable mini-grids in these contexts. We also call for more exten PV module O&M 15 $/kWp p.a. From [71]
sive data collection and comprehensive case-specific studies required to Battery storage (Lead-acid) 350 $/kWh From [70], higher range
promote and generalise these solutions. Battery storage O&M 10 $/kWh p.a. From [71]
Balance Of Systems (BOS) 200 $/kW From [74]
Diesel generator 560 $/kW From [75]
Declaration of Competing Interest Diesel fuel 1.192 $/l From [76]
Diesel generator O&M 350 $/kW p.a. From [75]
PV annual cost decrease 3 % p.a. From [59,73]
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
Diesel fuel annual cost decrease 0 % p.a. Based on [76]
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence Discount rate 9.5 % p.a. From [77]
the work reported in this paper.
Environmental parameters Value Units Notes
PV module 1400 kgCO2eq/kWp From [78]

Acknowledgements Battery storage 110 kgCO2eq/kWh From [79]
Balance of Systems (BOS) 200 kgCO2eq/kWh From [80]
The authors would like to acknowledge Tracy Tunge, Sarah Begg and Diesel generator 2000 kgCO2eq/kW From [81]
Laura Clarke of Practical Action for their contributions to the develop Diesel fuel 2.68 kgCO2eq/l From [81]
ment of this paper, and the IKEA Foundation for supporting the
Renewable Energy for Refugees Project, a partnership between Practical
Action and UNHCR. They would also like to acknowledge the support of
Table A3
Laila Read and the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the
Technical performance and economic metrics comparison of static and modular
Environment. design approaches for a 0.7 renewable fraction hybrid system optimised to meet
a growing demand profile over its lifetime, from the Baseline scenario to the
Funding Information High Productive scenario load profile.
Modular approach Static approach
JBA and PS would like to acknowledge Research England GCRF QR system system
Funding, and PS would like to acknowledge the funding received from Average wasted energy (kWh/day) 99 85 (− 14%)
EPSRC (EP/R511547/1, EP/R030235/1 and EP/P02484X/1). Average PV utilisation (kWh/day per 3.16 3.04 (− 20%)
kWp installed)
Average storage utilisation (kWh/day 0.42 0.33 (− 21%)
Data availability per kWh installed)
Total lifetime cost (Thousands of $) 431 452 (+5%)
Datasets related to this article can be found at https://data.humdata. Total new equipment cost (Thousands 189 212(+12%)
org/dataset/nyabiheke-diesel-based-minigrid-data, hosted at Humani of $)
Average annual OPEX (Thousands of 16 16 (− 1%)
tarian Data Exchange thanks to the contribution of Practical Action [61]. $/year)
LCUE ($/kWh) 0.392 0.409 (+5%)
A. Appendix. Payback of additional investment vs 3.3 6.6
diesel system
Total lifetime GHG emissions (tCO2eq) 962 954 (− 1%)
15
Table A4 Table A6
Technical performance and economic metrics comparison of static and modular Discounted cashflows assumed by humanitarian organisations for different de
design approaches for a fully renewable system optimised to meet a growing livery models proposed to implement a fully renewable system optimised for the
demand profile over its lifetime, from the Baseline scenario to the High Pro existing energy demand in Nyabiheke with a renewable fraction of 1, compared
ductive scenario load profile. with the cashflows associated to the use of the incumbent diesel system over a
Modular approach Static approach
period of 15 years. Values in thousands of US dollars.
system system Baseline Purchase Lease Lease Limited Limited
Average wasted energy (kWh/day) 232 290 (+25%)
Average PV utilisation (kWh/day per 2.85 2.28 (− 20%)
years) years)
kWp installed)
Average storage utilisation (kWh/day 0.39 0.32 (− 18%) CAPEX 0 227 0 0 0 0
per kWh installed) Year 1
Total lifetime cost (Thousands of $) 386 484 (+20%) CAPEX 0 19 19 0 0 0
Total new equipment cost (Thousands 324 401 (+24%) Year 5
of $) CAPEX 0 9 9 9 0 0
Average annual OPEX (Thousands of 4 5 (+25%) Year
$/year) 10
LCUE ($/kWh) 0.349 0.436 (+20%) Annual 52 6 71 62 51 44
Payback of additional investment vs 6 10.2 OPEX
diesel system Total 214 252 293 256 211 183
Total lifetime GHG emissions (tCO2eq) 396 432 (+9%) Cost
Year 5
Total 344 286 327 412 339 294
Cost
Year
10
Total 423 305 345 430 417 360
Table A5 Cost
Discounted cashflows assumed by humanitarian organisations for different de Year
15
livery models proposed to implement a hybrid system optimised for the existing
energy demand in Nyabiheke with a renewable fraction of 0.38, compared with
the cashflows associated to the use of the incumbent diesel system over a period
of 15 years. Values in thousands of US dollars.
Table A7
Baseline Purchase Lease Lease Limited Limited Discounted cashflows assumed by humanitarian organisations for different de
Diesel to own to own PPA (5 PPA (15 livery models proposed to implement an hybrid system optimised for the
System (5 (10 years) years) existing energy demand in Nyabiheke with a renewable fraction of 0.7,
years) years)
compared with the cashflows associated to the use of the incumbent diesel
CAPEX 0 13 0 0 0 0 system over a period of 15 years and considering a diesel fuel price of 1.43 $/l.
Year 1 Values in thousands of US dollars.
CAPEX 0 9 9 0 0 0
Baseline Purchase Lease Lease Limited Limited
Year 5
CAPEX 0 3 3 3 0 0
Year
10 years) years)
Annual 52 37 42 45 39 42 CAPEX 0 107 0 0 0 0
OPEX Year 1
Total 214 164 174 186 161 176 CAPEX 0 13 13 0 0 0
Cost Year 5
Year 5 CAPEX 0 5 5 5 0 0
Total 344 265 275 298 259 281 Year
Cost 10
Year Annual 63 28 60 59 48 54
10 OPEX
Total 423 326 336 359 319 346 Total 260 210 249 244 200 220
Cost Cost
Year Year 5
15 Total 418 300 327 393 322 354
Cost
Year
10
Total 499 366 374 439 391 429
Cost
Year
15
16
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Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101095

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments

The potential for solar-diesel hybrid mini-grids in refugee camps: A case

Introduction Access to energy plays a crucial role in ensuring the provision of

incumbent and the proposed systems, the required modelling parame

of the limitations, this analysis is specific to the technology choice made

increases in the system capacity, resulting in pronounced increases in

Sensitivity analysis to the renewable fraction

The previous analysis features a hybrid system, with a renewable

levels of access to capital for humanitarian organisations involved: Table 3

both approaches. The corresponding approaches for a fully renewable Table 4

longer revenue certainty for private actors. Table A1

PV module 1400 kgCO2eq/kWp From [78]

Table A8 [26] Sandwell P, Tunge T, Okello A, Muhorakeye, Liberata Sangwa F, Waters L,

You might also like

Barandaalonso 2021

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Barandaalonso 2021

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Barandaalonso 2021

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Copyright:

Available Formats

Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 44 (2021) 101095

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments

The potential for solar-diesel hybrid mini-grids in refugee camps: A case

Introduction Access to energy plays a crucial role in ensuring the provision of

incumbent and the proposed systems, the required modelling parame­

of the limitations, this analysis is specific to the technology choice made

increases in the system capacity, resulting in pronounced increases in

Sensitivity analysis to the renewable fraction

The previous analysis features a hybrid system, with a renewable

levels of access to capital for humanitarian organisations involved: Table 3

both approaches. The corresponding approaches for a fully renewable Table 4

longer revenue certainty for private actors. Table A1

PV module 1400 kgCO2eq/kWp From [78]

Table A8 [26] Sandwell P, Tunge T, Okello A, Muhorakeye, Liberata Sangwa F, Waters L,

You might also like

incumbent and the proposed systems, the required modelling parame