105 Analysis
105 Analysis
105 Analysis
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study are to know effect variables expense and revenue on
economic growth, poverty and unemployment. The samples of the study are APBN
for 1999 – 2006. The result study with descriptive analysis indicate that revenue and
expense meanly increase, but increase expense bigger than revenue. Indicate this
meanly deficit. The gowth economic and unemployment meanly increase, while
poverty fluctuative from year to year. The result of study with regression indicate that
expenset-1 positively significant effect on revenue t. For effect revenuet and revenuet-1
on unemploymentt indicate positively significant effect. The effect expense t and
expenset-1 on unemploymentt indicate positively significant effect. For effect
economic growtht-1 on unemploymentt indicate positively significant effect.
1
BACKGROUND
Fiscal policy will influence the economics growth through state revenue and
expense. Stable economics growth expected will lessen the poverty level and depress
of revenue and expense being based on economic, efficient, and effective (value for
money) representing compulsion to all handle of policy and finance organizer in this
country. Existence of difference between revenue and expense will generate the
national income and expense type which can be categorized as state expenditure.
extensification, but also intensification and also economic activity growth. In area of
project which its priority relative lower without having to sacrifice the social
programs of especial base which can degrade the service quality to society or
program the economics stimulus. Priority scale in development expense do not only
coming. Optimalization of revenue and selectifitas and also expense priority will
grow the economics affecting directly and also indirectly to decrease poverty and
2
( 2004) proving that state expense have an effect by signifikan on economic growth.
Mayper Dkk (1991) indicating that expense have an effect on poverty level.
Policy of value for money at state revenue and expense cover the policy of
applying of acceptance system, expense and friction of state revenue and expense
planning and execution of state revenue and expense budget. The Efforts for example
(Ritonga, 2004): (1) Elementary policy stipulating. In the case of stipulating, scale of
reduction represent matter which must prioritize. (2) Macro assumption stipulating.
This related with the goals to reach the optimal economics growth, reduction sum up
the poverty which significant and also depress the unemployment amount. (3)
expense of planning stages start from compilation evaluate and monitoring and also
feed back conducted systematically. (4) Stipulating of execution rule. In the stages
execution hold on to the input, process, output, outcome, and affect and also target.
Economics growth non-stoped show the settled for a number of years repair
did not mean that work have. Economics not yet convalesce full, activity in number
of sector specially real sector still below capacities. Economic growth also not yet last
3
for permeating unemployment and overcome poverty. This because of economics still
fragile to shock, either due political factor, social, other state condition and also other
matters. Final purpose economic Growth is improve the people prosperity through
decrease of poverty and reduction sum up the unemployment and also various other
RESEARCH PURPOSE
purpose as follows:
and unemploymentt.
and unemploymentt.
and unemploymentt.
4
RESEARCH CONTRIBUTION
shall be as follows:
1. Theory contribution. Adding and extending theory of state revenue and expense
and related also with the economic growth, poverty, and unemployment.
2. Policy contribution. For taker of policy and organizer of state's finance serve the
purpose of appliance to be optimal of value for money related state revenue and
expense with the economic growth, decrease of poverty and reduction sum up the
unemployment.
its invesment related with the policy of management of state revenue and expense
determined by how budget consumer specify the such stages for example through
of its unit price. Others, its optimal budget execution also determined by how budget
consumer adhere the rule which have been specified, what in it for example arranged
5
to hit the principles, organizational, groove the budget compilation, things prohibited
et cetera. The rule And stages represent some of evaluation in public expenditure.
For that element of public expenditure which always evaluated to cover six
aspect, that is (Bastian, 2001) 1. Middle macro plan evaluation. Evaluate this
focussed at process of budget planning and program the middle measure. 2. Evaluate
the composition of expenditure intern and sectoral intra. Evaluate this focussed by a
expenditure item to one unit work and sinergy with the unit work the other. 3.
Eavluation of governmental role and private sector. Evaluate this addressed to know
the governmental role change and private sector in society. Ever greater of private
sector role, hence progressively role less be governmental 4. Evaluate the strategic
programs impact for impecunious society group with the approach cost-effectively.
Evaluate the program of poverty decrease become the especial program in make-up
Evaluate the routine expenditure and development expense. Evaluate this more
In execution of state revenue and expenditure budget oftentimes met that what
have been planned in its execution met by the difficulty so that need the change or
which often referred revisedly. Change of state revenue and expense constituted with
the correct consideration and ripeness will be optimal of state's finance management.
6
The change also followed by selectifitas and priority scale specially at state expense.
revenue in a period to coming. Adi (2006) conducting research to test the impact of
expense structure on economic growth as well as area origin revenue. This Research
to test the influence directly and indirectly expense change to area origin revenue.
Data used in this research is data of area revenue and expense budget realization of
regency and town of se Java - Bali for 1998 - 2003. This research result indicate that
the expense structure have an effect on by signifikan to economic growth and area
origin revenue. This Research also find that governmental decision for the allocation
of bigger capital expense to support the economic growth will improve the area origin
The state revenue and expense budget represent the integral part from
economics by agrerat. Thereby policy of state revenue and expense budget in turn
will influence the economics activity. The numbers of state revenue and expense
budget very determined by economic growth estimate and plan the policy taken by
from the reciprocal interaction. In general, society in fact confess the governmental
function as public supplier and public facility like health, education and housing,
Politically and economics, public expense and revenue that can classificated in
7
(Bastian, 2006): (1) Social invesment - project and service improving economic
growth and labour productivity. (2) Social consumption - project and service
debasing expense reproduce from labour. Both the things playing a part in to lessen
the amount of poverty and unemployment. (3) Social expenditure - project and
progressively mount, whereas on the other hand strive the state acceptance unable to
economic, politics and punish and also poverty decrease not yet get supported full
through state revenue and expense buget. Dritsakis And Adamopoulos (2004)
conducting link research between expense of economic growth and state. The
economy of Greek and determine the cause and economic growth source by long-
range link existence with the economic growth. Data used cover the time period
between for 1960 - 2000. Mayper Dkk (1991) checking factors having an effect on to
budget change. Result of research show the expense have an effect on to poverty
level. Effort made to determine the causality between economic growth and expense
use the theory Wagner'S. Empirical Analysis of public expense pursuant to law
Wagner'S show related between public expense with the economic growth. Based at
8
HA2: revenuet have an effect on economic growtht.
Decline that happened at real sector result the increasing of poverty number
and sum up the unemployment, either in urban and also in countryside. In order to
poverty decrease and lessen the unemployment, claimed governmental to take the
fiscal policy initiative to grow the economics. With the existence of settled economics
growth and stabilize will push to decrease of poverty number and depress the
hypothesis:
9
HA17: economic growtht-1 have an effect on unemploymentt.
RESEARCH METHOD
Research Design
problems and answer expected and also model its examination can be described as
following:
expenset-1 revenuet
Regression
Figure 1.
revenuet povertyt
expenset-1 unemploymentt
Regression
Figure 2.
1
Sample and Data
This research represent the explanatory research as a mean to test the raised
hypothesis. Sampel in this research is state revenue and expense budget for period
1999 - 2006. Research variable is revenue, expense, economic growth, mount the
Data Analysis
Analysis the this research data done by using analysis in line with research.
Descriptive Analysis
maximum, mean, and standard deviasi value from variable expense t-1, expenset,
unemploymentt.
Regression Analysis
This Analyse used to test the alternative hypothesis 1 - 17. By means of this
If value of significantion smaller than 0.05, hence independent variable have an effect
if assumption in the following can be fullfiled. The assumption cover the distribution
data normally, not happened the autocorellation, not happened the multicollinearity,
1
and not happened the equality between variance from residual one perception with
Descriptive Analysis
This analysis done to count minimum, maximum, mean and standard deviasi
mean of research variable. Pursuant to calculation which have been done at each
Table 1.
Deviation
N Minimum Maximum Mean Standard
Revenuet-1 7 200.64 509.00 322.6100 108.96621
Revenuet 7 205.33 621.60 382.7471 141.68322
Expenset-1 7 221.45 542.40 350.7971 114.02098
Expenset 7 221.45 647.70 411.6871 143.45577
Economic Growtht-1 7 0.97 5.53 3.8829 1.54313
Economic Growtht 7 3.34 5.53 4.4871 0.91118
Unemploymentt 7 6.40 11.20 9.3614 1.69167
Povertyt 7 16.00 21.50 17.8500 1.89934
Source: Secunder Data of State Revenue and Expense Budget for 1999 – 2006
(processed)
triliun in the year 1999 and maximum revenue t-1 is 509 triliun in the year 2005,
revenuet-1 mean is 322.61 triliun with the standard deviasi is 108.966 triliun.
Revenuet-1 from year 1999 until year 2005 in meanly experience increase except year
1
2002 degradation experience. Assess the minimum revenue t is 205.33 triliun in the
year 2000 and maximum revenuet is 621.6 triliun in the year 2006, revenue t mean is
382.747 triliun with the standard deviasi is 141.68 triliun. Revenue t from year 2000
until year 2006 in mean experience improvement except of year 2002 which
experience of the degradation. This matter indicate that the effort to increase revenue
in an optimal fashion have been done by government with the existence of increase in
Value of the minimum expenset-1 is 221.45 triliun in the year 2000 and
maximum expenset-1 is 542.4 triliun in the year 2005, expenset-1 mean is 350.797
triliun with the standard deviasi is 114.02 triliun. For the expense t-1 from year 1999
until year 2005 in mean experience of improvement except year 2000 and 2002
year 2000 and maximum expenset is 647.7 triliun in the year 2006, expenset mean is
411.687 triliun with the standard deviasi is 143.456 triliun. For the expense t from year
2000 until year 2006 in mean experience improvement except year 2002 experience
of degradation.
revenuet-1. This show in mean of existence deficit of state revenue and expense
budget for period 1999 - 2005. For the revenue t of expenset in bigger mean also at
expenset compared with revenuet. This show in mean of existence deficit state
revenue and expense budget for period 2000 - 2006. The existence of this deficit
usually covered with by debt from outside country or governmental obligation sale to
1
other party. In the event of continuous deficit, hence governmental debt will be ever
greater because of fundamental and interest which always experience of the increase.
For that, need the existence of management of state expense which stimulus of make-
government.
Value of the minimum economic growtht-1 is 0.97% in the year 1999 and
maximum economic growtht-1 is 5.3% in the year 2005, mean economic growth t-1 is
3.88% with the standard deviasi is 1.54%. For the economic growtht-1 from year 1999
until year 2005 in mean experience increase except of year 2001 experience of
degradation. For the minimum economic growtht is 3.34% in the year 2001 and
maximum economic growtht is 5.3% in the year 2005, mean economic growtht is
4.487% with the standard deviasi is 0.91%. For the economic growtht from year 2000
until year 2006 in mean experience increase except year 2001 and 2006 experience of
degradation.
Seenly the mentioned in economic growth mean at period 2000 - 2006 higher
compared with the period 1999 - 2005. This matter because of economic growth in
the year 1999 which still relative minimize caused by cure process from economics
crisis which knock over this country. Every 1% economic growth will be able to
permeate the labour to 200.000 people. With the existence of the mentioned at period
1999 - 2005 labour which can be permeated by as much 776,000 people or in mean as
much 129,333 people. At period 2000 - 2006 labour which can be permeated by as
much 1,060,000 people or in mean as much 176,667 people. This means at the period
1
mount the unemployment decrease as much absorbent labour. Relative minimize the
Sum up the minimum unemploymentt is 6.4% in the year 2000 and maximum
unemploymentt is 11.2% in the year 2005, unemploymentt mean is 9.36% with the
standard deviasi is 1.69%. For the unemployment t from year 2000 until year 2006 in
mean experience increase except year 2001 experice of degradation. For sum up
level of minimum povertyt is 16% in the year 2005 and sum the maximum poverty t is
21.5% in the year 2001, level of mean poverty t is 17.85% with the standard deviasi is
1.9%. For sum the povertyt from year 2000 until year 2006 experiencing of fluktuatif
Regression Analysis
between various variable used in this research. This Model show link pattern which
classis assumption test indicate that the variable used at this research have fulfilled
1
the raised classic assumption, so that model the the regresi represent the good
appliance prediksi and not deflect. Result of examination between variable expense t-1
Table 2.
Coefficient
constanta -30.229
expenset-1 revenuet 1.177**
** significant at level α = 0.05
Source: Secunder Data of State Revenue anda Expense Budget 1999 –
2006 (processed)
Pursuant to above mentioned tables indicate that the expense t-1 have an effect
on positively on revenuet. Thereby acceptable HA1. This result support the research
conducted by Nikolaos and Adamopoulos (2004) expressing that expense t-1 have an
effect on revenuet. This also indicate that the expense relied on selectifiti and priority
scale for the project of which can improve revenue in period to coming. Every
increase expenset-1 one set of will improve the revenue t is 1.177. Value R2 is 0.898,
this means that revenuet influenced by expenset-1 is 89.8%, while 10,2% influenced by
other variable.
and variable of revenuet on povertyt and unemployment and also variable expenset on
1
Table 3
Coefficient
constanta 3.056
revenuet economic growtht 0.004
R2 = 0.338
constanta 22.246
economic growtht povertyt -0.980
2
R = 0.221
constanta 20.013
revenuet povertyt -0.006
2
R = 0.178
constanta 5.708
economic growtht unemploymentt 0.814
R2 = 0.192
constanta 5.322
revenuet unemploymentt 0.011*
R2 = 0.781
constanta 3.039
expenset economic growtht 0.004
2
R = 0.178
constanta 20.032
revenuet povertyt -0.005
R2 = 0.160
constanta 5.034
revenuet unemploymentt 0.011*
R2 = 0.795
* significant at level α = 0.01
** significan at lecel α = 0.05
Source: Secunder Data of State Revenue anda Expense Budget 1999 – 2006
(processed)
Reference at tables 3 above mentioned indicate that the revenuet have not an
1
growtht on povertyt nor show the influence by signifikan. Thereby H A14 refused. This
matter possible because of economic growth not give the opportunity of impecunious
resident to obtain the higher level production. Others, also caused by project giving
contribution of economic growth do not or less affect at poverty decrease. For the
influence of revenuet on povertyt not show the influence which significant. Thereby
HA3 refused. Influence of economic growtht on unemploymentt not show the influence
which significant. Thereby HA15 refused. This matter possible because of economic
growth not touch the real sector so that not affect reduction sum up the
which positive significant. Thereby HA4 accepted. For increase of one set of revenues
will improve the unemployment amount to 0.011. Value R 2 is 0.781, this means that
variable.
The influence of expenset on economic growtht not show the influence which
significant. Thereby HA5 refused. Result of this research not support the research that
effect on economic growtht. This matter possible because of expense released not
growth. For the influence of expense t on povertyt nor show the influence which
significant. Thereby HA6 refused. Result of this research not support the research that
conducted by Mayper et.all (1991) expressing that expense expenditure have an effect
on poverty level. This possible because of expense released less or is not used for the
1
project of giving the make-up of revenue for pauper or lack of accessing pauper to
project from the expense. The influence expense t on unemploymentt show influence
which positive significant. Thereby HA7 accepted. Every increase one set of expense t
will improve the unemployment is 0.011. This indicate that the state expense less or
is not selective to project which aim to to lessen the unemployment amount. Others,
the following.
1
Table 4
Coefficient
constanta 2.9
revenuet-1 economic growtht 0.005
R2 = 0.346
constanta 21.168
revenuet-1 povertyt -0.010
2
R = 0.348
constanta 4.973
revenuet-1 unemploymentt 0.014*
2
R = 0.768
constanta 2.878
expenset-1 economic growtht 0.005
R2 = 0.329
constanta 21.48
expenset-1 povertyt -0.010
R2 = 0.386
constanta 4.797
expenset-1 unemploymentt 0.013*
R2 = 0.769
constanta 18.262
economic growtht-1 povertyt -0.106
R2 = 0.007
constanta 6.020
economic growtht-1 unemploymentt 0.861*
R2 = 0.785
* significant at level α = 0,01
** significant at level α = 0,05
Source: Secunder Data of State Revenue anda Expense Budget 1999 – 2006
(processed)
Base on the tables 4. above mentioned indicate that the revenuet-1 not have an
significant effect on economic growtht. Thereby HA8 refused. The influence revenuet-1
2
on povertyt nor show the influence significant. Thereby HA9 refused. For the influence
HA10 accepted. Every increase revenuet-1 one set will increase unemploymentt is
The influence expenset-1 on economic growtht not show the influence which
significant. Thereby HA11 refused. Result of this research not support the research
conducted by Nikolaos and Adamopoulos (2004) expressing that expense t-1 have an
effect on economic growtht. For the influence of expenset-1 on povertyt not show the
Every increase expenset-1 one set of will increase unemploymentt is 0.013. Value R2 is
0,769, this means that unemploymentt influenced by expenset-1 is 76.9%, while 23.1%
The influence of economic growtht-1 on povertyt not show the influence which
increase of economic growtht-1 one set will increase unemploymentt is 0.861. Value
2
CONCLUTION, LIMITATION, AND SUGGESTION
Conclution
Base on result and solution, hence this research conclusion is revenue and
revenue and expense is bigger at expense compared revenue. This show in mean of
experience of the increase, while poverty experience fluktuatif from year to year.
With the regression examination indicate that the expense t-1 have an positive
which positive signifikan. For the influence of revenue t-1 on unemploymentt show
influence which positive signifikan. The influence expense t-1 on unemploymentt show
influence which positive signifikan. For the influence of economic growth t-1 on
Limitation
This research own the limitation because variable used only just revenue and
expense on economic growth, poverty, and unemployment, while there are other
unemployment. Sampel used only at state revenue and expense budget for period
1999 - 2006.
2
Suggestion
independent variable and also relevant with the poverty and unemployment. Others,
obyek research nor only at state revenue and expense budget, but also at region
revenue and expense budget and also add the period of research time.
2
REFERENCE
Adi, Priyo Hari. 2006. Hubungan Antara Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Daerah, Belanja
IX Padang.
Yogyakarta.
Kompas. Jakarta.
Bunga Rampai Kebijakan Fiskal. 2002. Badan Analisa Fiskal. Departemen Keuangan
McGraw-Hill.
2
Ghozali, Imam. 2005. Konsep dan Aplikasi dengan Program AMOS Ver. 5.0. Badan
Hair, Jr., Andersen dan W.C Black. 1998. Multivariate Data Analysis. Fifth Edition.
Henley, D. dkk. 1993. Public Sector Accounting and Financial Control. Fourth
Mardiamo. 2002. Otonomi dan Manajemen Keuangan Daerah. Penerbit Andi Offset.
Yogyakarta.
2
Ritonga, A. Anshari. 2004. Kebijakan Efisiensi Belanja Negara. Kumpulan Tulisan
Kompas. Jakarta.
Yogyakarta.
Wardhana, Ali. 2004. Economic Reform in Indonesia: The Transition From Resource
Jakarta.
Bandung.