National

nstitute of Public
Administration PA

BUSINESS STUDIES DIVISION (BSD)

BACHELOR OF BUsINESS ADMINISTRATION/BACHELOR OF ACCOUNTING

AND FINANCE

BBA301/BAF204- DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES

DECEMBER 2020EXAMINATION

DATE :15T DECEMBER, 2020

SESSION: 08:30-12:00 (MORNING)

VENUE :GF7/GF5

DURATION: THREE (3) HOURS

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATE:
. This paper contains SEVEN questions.

Altempt ANY FIVE questions

. Use of calculators is allowed

The standard normal 1ahle is provided on the last page of this question paper.

Nurnber each answer clearly in the lett margin.

6. Final answers should be given to 4 decimal places where appropriate.

Start each answer on a new page.

. Total marks: 100.

DO NOT TURN THIS PAPER UNTILL TOLD TO DO SO

PLEASE ILEAVE TIE ANSWER SCRIPT BEHIND
AFTER THE EXAMINATION
QUESTION ONE: (20 MARKsS)

(a). Solve the following Lincar Programming Problem using the graphical method

Maximize Z = 5x+4y

Subject to constraints,

6x+4y24
x+2y S6

x+yS1
ys2
X,y2 where

(10marks)

) . Actual sales figures for four quarters, together with appropriate seasonal adjustment factors
derived from previous data, are as follows

Seasonal adjustments
Actual sales (K'000) Additive model Multiplicative model
Quarter
(K°000)
150 +3 1.02
2 160 +4 1.05
3 164 -2 0.98
4 170 -5 0.95

Required: Deseasonalise these data (10 marks)

QUESTION TWO: (20 MARKS) V

(a). A tyre dealer sell all kinds of tyres but the demand for radial tyres account for a large portion

inventory of radial tyres. To see what the demand would

of sales. The firm wishes to manage the
look like the firm wishes to simulate the demand for ten days.

Following data are given:

Demand for radial tyres: 0 2 3 4 5

10 20 40 60 30-200 days
Frequency (days):
2
Consider the following sequence of random numbers: 52, 37, 82. 69, 98, 96, 33, 5(0, 88 90.

sing thc scqucnce. simulate the demand for next 10 days. (1Omarks)

(i). Tne random variable X has a normal distribution with mean 30 and standard deviation 5.

(i) Find P(X < 39). (2marks)

(ii) Find the value ofd such that P(X < d) =0.1151.(4marks)

(ii) Find the value ofc such that P(X> e) =0.1151. (2marks)

(iv) Find P(d <X < e). (2marks)

UESTION THHREE: (20 MARKS)

When an anthropologist finds skeletal remains, they need to figure out the height of the person.
The height of a person (in cm) and the length of their metacarpal bone (in cm) vere collected and

are in the table below ("Prediction of height," 2013).

Table: Data of Metacarpal

Length of Metacarpal (cm) Height of Person (cm)

45 171
51 178
39 157
41 163
48 172
49 183
46 173
43 175
47 173

(a). State the independent and dependent variable (4marks)

(b). Create a scatter plot and find a regression equation between the heignt of a persou and the

lengh oftheir metacarpal. (16marks)

141
()
QUESTION FOUR: (20 MARKS) V

(a). An oflice has four workers, and four tasks have to beperformed. Workers differ in elliciency

and tasks differ intheir intrinsic difficulty. The time each worker would take tocomplete cach

task is given in the effectiveness matrix.lHow should the tasks be allocated to each worker so asto

minimise the total man-hour? Use the Hungarian algorithm method.

Workers
I IV

A 23 14 8

Tasks B 10 25 23
C 35 | 16 15 12

D 16 | 23 | 21

(16marks)
(b). People arrive randomly at a bank teller at an avcrage rate of 30 an hour. If the teller takes an
average of 0.5 minutes to serve each customer. Calculate how long the customers have to wait to

be served? (4 marks)

QUESTION FIVE: (20 MARKS)

The occurrence of rain in Lusaka city is dependent upon whether or not it rained on the previous

day. Ifit rained on the previous day, the rain distribution is given below:

Event Probability
No rain 0.50

I cm. Rain 0.25

2 0.15

3 0.05

4 0.03

0.02

4
i t did not rain tlhe previous day. the rain distribution is given by:

Ecnt Probability
No rain 0.75

l cm. Rain 0.15

0.06

0.04

Simulate the city's weather for 10 days and determine by simulation the total days without rain

as well as total rainfall during the period. Use the following random numbers: 67, 63, 39, 55, 29
78, 70, 06, 78, 76 for simulation. Assume that for the first day of simulation it had not rained the

day before. (20 marks)

QUESTION SIX: (20 MARKS)

(a). The Ministry of Health (MOH) records indicate that roughly 20% of individuals in Zambia
have Corona Virus (COVID-19), and the laboratory test accurately discloses the Corona Virus

95% of the time. The tests also indicate 'positive' among people who do not have COVID-19:

this happens on 10% of occasions.

Use Baye's theorem to determine the probability that a person who tests positive actually has

Corona Virus. (10marks)

(b). The number of transactions that are incorrectly processed in a client's financial records is

found to follow a Binomial distribution. An auditing company has found from experience that

5% of transactions are incorrectly processed in a client's linancial records. An auditor randomly

draws a sample of 8 transactions from this clients accounting records. What is the probability

that:

(i). No transaction will be incorrectly processed? (2marks)

(i). One transaction will be incorrectly processed? (2marks)
(ii). Two transactions will be incorrectly processed'?
(iv). Three transactions will be incorreetly processed? (2marks)
(v). Four transactions will be incorrectly processed? (2marks)

S
QUESTION SEVEN: (20 MARKS) V

(a). Your supervisor has put you in charge of taking on a new outsourced IT supplier. You've
already identified several different suppliers, and you now need to decide which one to usc. You
could decide to go wih the low-cost option. Bul you don't want to make your decision on cost
alone factors such as contract length, underlying technology, and service levels neced to be
taken into consideration.

Factors: Cost Quality Location Reliability Payment Options

Weight
Supplier 0 0

Supplier 2

Supplier 3 3 0

Supplier 4 2

Based on the information provided above, which supplier would you recommend? (1Omarks)

(b). Write brief notes on structured and unstructured decisions in business(10 marks)
Standard Normal Cumulative Probability Table

Cumulative probabilities for POSITIVE z-values are shown in the following table

0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.535
0.5000 0.5040 0.5090 05120 0.5160
G.0 0.5838 p.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.5517 0.5557 0.5596
0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5475 0.8141
0.5949 0.598 ec28 0.064 0.6103
0.5783 0.6832 0.5671 05910
0.2 0.8408 0.0443 0.480 0.B517
0.8217 0.8255 0.6293 0.8331 0.6368
0.3 0.8179 0.8379
0.6772 D. 0.6844
0.8554 0.8691 0.6628 0.6854 0.8700 0.6736
0.4

7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 .7224

0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6085 0.7019 0.7054
. 7454 . .7486 0.7517 7549
0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422
0.6 0.7257 7291 0.7873 7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7223 0.7852
0.7 D.7530 0.7811 O.7842
0.9051 0.8078 0.8108 0.8133
0.7831 . .7910 a.7939 0.7987 0.7985 0.8023
0.8 0.8265 C.9389
0.8212 0.8239 0.8284 0.8289 0.9315 0.8340
0.9 0.8159 0.8188

0.8531 0.0554 8577 0.8509 8821

1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8481 0.8495 0.8503
0.8770 0.878 0.8810 0.8830
0.843 0.8665 0.8883 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8997 0.G015
2 0.8849 0.8369 0.3888 0.8907
0.9C82
2925
0.9089
0.8044
0.9115
0.8062
D.e131
8380
9147 0.9102 D.9177
0.9032 0.8049 0.9068
0.9238 0.9261 0.9285 0.0279 0.9292 0.9308 09319
1.4 0.0192 0.9207 0.9222

1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9324 0.0408 a.418 D.0429 44
0.0405 0.9505 0.9515 0.0525 0.8535 545
1.5 0.0452 483 0.0474 0.9484
0.6584 O.9573 0.8582 0.9509 2618 0.eE25 G333
0.9E54
0.041 0.49 0.9656 9.9884 0.c671 0.9878 0.GAS8 0.9693 0.909 0.970o
1.8
0.9728 0.9732 0.9739 0.9744 0.9750 0.9766 0.9781 C.3
1.9 0.0713 0.97 19

0.E778 0.9783 0.8788 0.8793 0.9798 0.9803 C.9ece 0.9812 C0317

20 0.9772
21 0.9821 0.9326 0.9930 0.9834 0.9833 0.9842 0.9048 0.9850 0.e254
G.E75 0.9878 0.0691 C.9884 0.aco
22 0.0051 0.9664 a.9868 D.9971
0.9223 0.08 0.9069 0.9901 0.9004 0.9906 0.e009 0.2011 0.9913 09918
2. 0.0018 0.9820 0.9022 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.C231 0.9832 0.9834

0.940 0.9041 0.9043 0.9245 0.948 0.9048 0.9949 0.9951 C.c952

2.5 0.9939
26 0.e953 0.955 0.9958 0.9957 0.9969 0.9980 0.9961 0.9982 0.9963 0.0284
2.7 0.05 0.0200 0.9907 0.9908 0.9970 0.9971 0.0372 0.2973 ca74
0.9E74 0.0975 0.9976 0.9977 0.077 0.9278 .9979 0.9979
0.981 0.9982 0.0982 0.5883 0.684 0.9GE4 0.6985 0.9985 C8993

3.0 0.9857 0.&297 0.9927 0.9998 D.0983 0.9680 0.9999 .9E90

3.1 0.0080 0.9901 0.901 0.2c91 0.9992 0.9ee2 D.9992 0.9992 .9993 GS9e3
3.2 0.9903 0.9993 09904 0.9934 0.9904 0.9894 .9904 0.9995 .9995
3.3 0.0005 0.9905 0.9995 D.9908 C. 0.9990 0.9898 0.8028
3.4 0.9997 0 9997 0.9097 0.9997 0.9997 0.9097 D.G997 0.9997 . .B997 0.9993