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U n d e r s ta n d a b l e s tat i s t i c s
co n c e p t s a n d br ase
methods br ase
12E
Copyright 2018 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
TWELFTH EDITION
Understandable
Statistics
CONCEPTS AND METHODS
Charles Henry Brase

REGIS UNIVERSITY
Corrinne Pellillo Brase

ARAPAHOE COMMUNITY COLLEGE
$XVWUDOLDä%UD]LOä0H[LFRä6LQJDSRUHä8QLWHG.LQJGRPä8QLWHG6WDWHV
This book is dedicated to the memory of
a great teacher, mathematician, and friend
Burton W. Jones
Professor Emeritus, University of Colorado
Understandable Statistics: Concepts and © 2018, 2015, 2012 Cengage Learning

Methods, Twelfth Edition
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright herein
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Printed in the United States of America

Print Number: 01 Print Year: 2016
Contents
Preface xv
Table of Prerequisite Material 1
1 Getting Started 2
FOCUS PROBLEM: Where Have All the Fireflies Gone? 3
1.1 What Is Statistics? 4
1.2 Random Samples 13
1.3 Introduction to Experimental Design 22
Summary 32
Important Words & Symbols 32
Chapter Review Problems 33
Data Highlights: Group Projects 35
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 36
USING TECHNOLOGY 37
2 Organizing Data 40
FOCUS PROBLEM: Say It with Pictures 41
2.1 Frequency Distributions, Histograms, and Related Topics 42
2.2 Bar Graphs, Circle Graphs, and Time-Series Graphs 59
2.3 Stem-and-Leaf Displays 69
Summary 78
USING TECHNOLOGY 85
3 Averages and Variation 88

FOCUS PROBLEM: Water: Yellowstone River 89
3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode, Median, and Mean 90
3.2 Measures of Variation 102
3.3 Percentiles and Box-and-Whisker Plots 121
Summary 132
USING TECHNOLOGY 138
Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 1-3 139
iii
iv CONTENTS
4 Elementary Probability Theory 142

FOCUS PROBLEM: How Often Do Lie Detectors Lie? 143
4.1 What Is Probability? 144
4.2 Some Probability Rules—Compound Events 155
4.3 Trees and Counting Techniques 177
Summary 188
5 The Binomial Probability

Distribution and Related Topics 196
FOCUS PROBLEM: Personality Preference Types: Introvert or Extrovert? 197
5.1 Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions 198
5.2 Binomial Probabilities 212
5.3 Additional Properties of the Binomial Distribution 229
5.4 The Geometric and Poisson Probability Distributions 242
Summary 260
6 Normal Curves and Sampling Distributions 270

FOCUS PROBLEM: Impulse Buying 271
PART I: Normal Distributions 272
6.1 Graphs of Normal Probability Distributions 272
6.2 Standard Units and Areas Under the Standard Normal Distribution 288
6.3 Areas Under Any Normal Curve 299
PART II: Sampling Distributions and the Normal Approximation to Binomial
Distribution 314
6.4 Sampling Distributions 314
6.5 The Central Limit Theorem 320
6.6 Normal Approximation to Binomial Distribution and to p̂ Distribution 332
Summary 343
7 Estimation 358
FOCUS PROBLEM: The Trouble with Wood Ducks 359
PART I: Estimating a Single Mean or Single Proportion 360
7.1 Estimating m When s Is Known 360
CONTENTS v
7.2 Estimating m When s Is Unknown 374

7.3 Estimating p in the Binomial Distribution 387
PART II: Estimating the Difference Between Two Means or Two Proportions 400
7.4 Estimating m1 m2 and p1 p2 401
Summary 423
8 Hypothesis Testing 436

FOCUS PROBLEM: Benford’s Law: The Importance of Being Number 1 437
PART I: Testing a Single Mean or Single Proportion 438
8.1 Introduction to Statistical Tests 438
8.2 Testing the Mean m 454
8.3 Testing a Proportion p 470
PART II: Testing a Difference Between Two Means or Two Proportions 481
8.4 Tests Involving Paired Differences (Dependent Samples) 481
8.5 Testing m1 m2 and p1 p2 (Independent Samples) 496
Summary 522
Finding the P-Value Corresponding to a Sample Test Statistic 522
9 Correlation and Regression 532

FOCUS PROBLEM: Changing Populations and Crime Rate 533
PART I: Simple Linear Regression 534
9.1 Scatter Diagrams and Linear Correlation 534
9.2 Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination 552
9.3 Inferences for Correlation and Regression 573
PART II: Multiple Regression 593
9.4 Multiple Regression 594
Summary 610

10 Chi-Square and F Distributions 622

FOCUS PROBLEM: Archaeology in Bandelier National Monument 623
PART I: Inferences Using the Chi-Square Distribution 624
Overview of the Chi-Square Distribution 624
10.1 Chi-Square: Tests of Independence and of Homogeneity 625
vi CONTENTS
10.2 Chi-Square: Goodness of Fit 640

10.3 Testing and Estimating a Single Variance or Standard Deviation 650
PART II: Inferences Using the F Distribution 663
Overview of the F Distribution 663
10.4 Testing Two Variances 664
10.5 One-Way ANOVA: Comparing Several Sample Means 673
10.6 Introduction to Two-Way ANOVA 689
Summary 701
11 Nonparametric Statistics 710

FOCUS PROBLEM: How Cold? Compared to What? 711
11.1 The Sign Test for Matched Pairs 712
11.2 The Rank-Sum Test 720
11.3 Spearman Rank Correlation 728
11.4 Runs Test for Randomness 739
Summary 748
Appendix I: Additional Topics A1

Part I: Bayes’s Theorem A1
Part II: The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution A5
Appendix II: Tables A9

Table 1: Random Numbers A9
Table 2: Binomial Coefficients Cn,r A10
Table 3: Binomial Probability Distribution Cn,r prqnr A11
Table 4: Poisson Probability Distribution A16
Table 5: Areas of a Standard Normal Distribution A22
Table 6: Critical Values for Student’s t Distribution A24
Table 7: The x2 Distribution A25
Table 8: Critical Values for F Distribution A26
Table 9: Critical Values for Spearman Rank Correlation, rs A36
Table 10: Critical Values for Number of Runs R
(Level of Significance a 0.05) A37
Answers and Key Steps to Odd-Numbered Problems A39

Answers to Selected Even-Numbered Problems A73
Index I1
Critical Thinking
Students need to develop critical thinking skills in order to understand and evaluate the limitations of
statistical methods. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods makes students aware of method
appropriateness, assumptions, biases, and justifiable conclusions.
CRITICAL
Critical Thinking
THINKING Unusual Values
Critical thinking is an important
Chebyshev’s theorem tells us that no matter what the data distribution looks like, skill for students to develop in
at least 75% of the data will fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean. As order to avoid reaching misleading
we will see in Chapter 6, when the distribution is mound-shaped and symmetric,
conclusions. The Critical Thinking
about 95% of the data are within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Data values
beyond 2 standard deviations from the mean are less common than those closer
feature provides additional clari-
to the mean. fication on specific concepts as a
In fact, one indicator that a data value might be an outlier is that it is more safeguard against incorrect evalua-
than 2.5 standard deviations from the mean (Source: Statistics, by G. Upton and tion of information.
I. Cook, Oxford University Press).
UNUSUAL VALUES
For a binomial distribution, it is unusual for the number of successes r to be
higher than m 1 2.5s or lower than m 2.5s.
We can use this indicator to determine whether a specified number of successes

out of n trials in a binomial experiment are unusual.
For instance, consider a binomial experiment with 20 trials for which probability
of success on a single trial is p 5 0.70. The expected number of successes is m 5 14,
with a standard deviation of s < 2. A number of successes above 19 or below 9
would be considered unusual. However, such numbers of successes are possible.
Interpretation SOLUTION: Since we want to know the number of standard deviations from the mean,
we want to convert 6.9 to standard z units.
Increasingly, calculators and computers are used
to generate the numeric results of a statistical pro- x m 6.9 8
cess. However, the student still needs to correctly z5 5 5 2.20
s 0.5
interpret those results in the context of a particu-
lar application. The Interpretation feature calls Interpretation The amount of cheese on the selected pizza is only 2.20 standard
attention to this important step. Interpretation is deviations below the mean. The fact that z is negative indicates that the amount of
stressed in examples, in guided exercises, and in cheese is 2.20 standard deviations below the mean. The parlor will not lose its fran-
the problem sets. chise based on this sample.
6. Interpretation A campus performance series features plays, music groups, Critical Thinking and Interpretation
dance troops, and stand-up comedy. The committee responsible for selecting
the performance groups include three students chosen at random from a pool
Exercises
of volunteers. This year the 30 volunteers came from a variety of majors. In every section and chapter problem set, Critical Thinking
However, the three students for the committee were all music majors. Does
this fact indicate there was bias in the selection process and that the selection problems provide students with the opportunity to test their
process was not random? Explain. understanding of the application of statistical methods and
7. Critical Thinking Greg took a random sample of size 100 from the popula- their interpretation of their results. Interpretation problems
tion of current season ticket holders to State College men’s basketball games. ask students to apply statistical results to the particular
Then he took a random sample of size 100 from the population of current application.
season ticket holders to State College women’s basketball games.
(a)
venience, random) did Greg use to sample from the population of current
season ticket holders to all State College basketball games played by
either men or women?
(b) Is it appropriate to pool the samples and claim to have a random sample of
size 200 from the population of current season ticket holders to all State
College home basketball games played by either men or women? Explain. vii
viii Chapter 1 GETTING STARTED
Statistical Literacy
No language, including statistics, can be spoken without learning the vocabulary. Understandable
Statistics: Concepts and Methods introduces statistical terms with deliberate care.
What Does (concept, method,

What Does the Level of Measurement Tell Us? statistical result) Tell Us?
The level of measurement tells us which arithmetic processes are appropriate for the This feature gives a brief summary of the informa-
data. This is important because different statistical processes require various kinds of tion we obtain from the named concept, method, or
arithmetic. In some instances all we need to do is count the number of data that meet statistical result.
specified criteria. In such cases nominal (and higher) data levels are all appropriate. In
other cases we need to order the data, so nominal data would not be suitable. Many
other statistical processes require division, so data need to be at the ratio level. Just
keep the nature of the data in mind before beginning statistical computations.
Important Features of a
(concept, method, or result) Important Features of a Simple Random Sample
For a simple random sample
In statistics we use many different types of graphs,
n from the population has an equal chance
samples, data, and analytical methods. The features
of being selected.
of each such tool help us select the most appropriate
No researcher bias occurs in the items selected for the sample.
ones to use and help us interpret the information we

receive from applications of the tools.
For instance, from a population of 10 cats and 10 dogs, a random sample
of size 6 could consist of all cats.
Statistical Literacy Problems

SECTION 6.1 PROBLEMS 1. Statistical Literacy Which, if any, of the curves in Figure 6-10 look(s) like a
normal curve? If a curve is not a normal curve, tell why.
In every section and chapter problem set,
2. Statistical Literacy m,
m 1 s, and s. Statistical Literacy problems test student under-
FIGURE 6-10 standing of terminology, statistical methods, and
the appropriate conditions for use of the differ-
ent processes.
FIGURE 6-11
Definition Boxes
Box-and-Whisker Plots
Whenever important terms are introduced in
The quartiles together with the low and high data values give us a very useful
text, blue definition boxes appear within the
number summary of the data and their spread.
discussions. These boxes make it easy to reference
or review terms as they are used further.
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY
Lowest value, Q1, median, Q3, highest value
box-and-whisker plot. Box-and-whisker plots provide another useful technique

viii from exploratory data analysis (EDA) for describing data.
IMPORTANT WORDS & SYMBOLS Important Words & Symbols
SECTION 4.1 Multiplication rules of probability (for The Important Words & Symbols within the
Probability of an event A, P(A) 144 independent and dependent events) 156
Intuition 144 More than two independent events 161 Chapter Review feature at the end of each
Relative frequency 144 Probability of A or B 161 chapter summarizes the terms introduced in the
Equally likely outcomes 144 Event A and B 161
Law of large numbers 146 Event A or B 161 Definition Boxes for student review at a glance.
Mutually exclusive events 163
Statistical experiment 146
Addition rules (for mutually exclusive and general
Page numbers for first occurrence of term are
Event 146
Simple event 146 events) 163 given for easy reference.
Sample space 146 More than two mutually exclusive events 165
Complement of event Ac 148 Basic probability rules 168
SECTION 4.2 SECTION 4.3

Independent events 156 Multiplication rule of counting 177
Dependent events 156 Tree diagram 178
Probability of A and B 156 Factorial notation 181
Event A | B 156 Permutations rule 181
Conditional probability 156 Combinations rule 183
P1A | B2 156
Linking Concepts:
Writing Projects LINKING CONCEPTS: Discuss each of the following topics in class or review the topics on your own. Then
WRITING PROJECTS write a brief but complete essay in which you summarize the main points. Please
Much of statistical literacy is the ability include formulas and graphs as appropriate.
1. What does it mean to say that we are going to use a sample to draw an inference
to communicate concepts effectively. The about a population? Why is a random sample so important for this process? If
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects feature we wanted a random sample of students in the cafeteria, why couldn’t we just
at the end of each chapter tests both choose the students who order Diet Pepsi with their lunch? Comment on the
statement, “A random sample is like a miniature population, whereas samples
statistical literacy and critical thinking by that are not random are likely to be biased.” Why would the students who order
asking the student to express their under- Diet Pepsi with lunch not be a random sample of students in the cafeteria?
standing in words. 2. In your own words, explain the differences among the following sampling
-
ter sample, multistage sample, and convenience sample. Describe situations in
which each type might be useful.
5. Basic Computation: Central Limit Theorem Suppose x has a distribution Basic Computation
with a mean of 8 and a standard deviation of 16. Random samples of size Problems
n 5 64 are drawn. These problems focus student
(a) Describe the x distribution and compute the mean and standard deviation attention on relevant formulas,
of the distribution. requirements, and computational pro-
(b) Find the z value corresponding to x 5 9. cedures. After practicing these skills,
(c) Find P1x 7 92. students are more confident as they
(d) Interpretation Would it be unusual for a random sample of size 64 from approach real-world applications.
the x distribution to have a sample mean greater than 9? Explain.
30. Expand Your Knowledge: Geometric Mean When data consist of percent-
ages, ratios, compounded growth rates, or other rates of change, the geomet-
ric mean is a useful measure of central tendency. For n data values,
Expand Your Knowledge Problems n
Geometric mean 5 1product of the n data values, assuming all data
values are positive
Expand Your Knowledge problems present
optional enrichment topics that go beyond the average growth factor over 5 years of an investment in a mutual
material introduced in a section. Vocabulary -
and concepts needed to solve the problems are metric mean of 1.10, 1.12, 1.148, 1.038, and 1.16. Find the average growth
included at point-of-use, expanding students’ factor of this investment.
statistical literacy.
ix
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Direction and Purpose
Real knowledge is delivered through direction, not just facts. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and
Methods ensures the student knows what is being covered and why at every step along the way to statis-
tical literacy.
Chapter Preview
Questions Normal Curves and Sampling
Preview Questions at the beginning of
each chapter give the student a taste Distributions
of what types of questions can be
answered with an understanding of the
knowledge to come.
PREVIEW QUESTIONS
PART I
What are some characteristics of a normal distribution? What does
the empirical rule tell you about data spread around the mean?
How can this information be used in quality control? (SECTION 6.1)
Pressmaster/Shutterstock.com
Can you compare apples and oranges, or maybe elephants and butter-
flies? In most cases, the answer is no—unless you first standardize
your measurements. What are a standard normal distribution and
a standard z score? (SECTION 6.2)
How do you convert any normal distribution to a standard normal
distribution? How do you find probabilities of “standardized
events”? (SECTION 6.3)
PART II
FOCUS PROBLEM As humans, our experiences are finite and limited. Consequently, most of the important
decisions in our lives are based on sample (incomplete) information. What is a prob-
ability sampling distribution? How will sampling distributions help us make good
Benford’s Law: The Importance decisions based on incomplete information? (SECTION 6.4)
There is an old saying: All roads lead to Rome. In statistics, we could recast this saying: All
of Being Number 1 probability distributions average out to be normal distributions (as the sample size
increases). How can we take advantage of this in our study of sampling
distributions? (SECTION 6.5)
Benford’s Law states that in a wide variety of circum-
The binomial and normal distributions are two of the most important probability
distributions in statistics. Under certain limiting condi-
disproportionately often. Benford’s Law applies to such
diverse topics as the drainage areas of rivers; properties of
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
magazines, and government reports; and the half-lives of

radioactive atoms!
“1” about 30% of the time, with “2” about 18% of time,
and with “3” about 12.5% of the time. Larger digits occur
less often. For example, less than 5% of the numbers in
circumstances such as these begin with the digit 9. This
is in dramatic contrast to a random sampling situation, in
which each of the digits 1 through 9 has an equal chance 8. Focus Problem: For online student
Benford’s Law resources, visit theyou
Again, suppose Brase/Brase,
are the auditor for a very
Understandable Statistics, 12th edition web site
of appearing. at http://www.cengage.com/statistics/brase
-
puter data bank (see Problem 7). You draw a random sample of n 5 228 numbers
r 5 92 p represent the popu-
i. Test the claim that p is more than 0.301. Use a 5 0.01.

▲ Chapter Focus Problems ii. If p is in fact larger than 0.301, it would seem there are too many num-
The Preview Questions in each chapter are followed by a

Focus Problem, which serves as a more specific example of from the point of view of the Internal Revenue Service. Comment from
what questions the student will soon be able to answer. The the perspective of the Federal Bureau of Investigation as it looks for
Focus Problems are set within appropriate applications and
iii. Comment on the following statement: “If we reject the null hypothesis at
are incorporated into the end-of-section exercises, giving a, we have not proved H0 to be false. We can say that
students the opportunity to test their understanding. the probability is a that we made a mistake in rejecting H0.” Based on the
outcome of the test, would you recommend further investigation before
accusing the company of fraud?
x
Focus Points
SECTION 3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode,
Each section opens with bul- Median, and Mean
leted Focus Points describing FOCUS POINTS
the primary learning objectives t Compute mean, median, and mode from raw data.
t Interpret what mean, median, and mode tell you.
of the section. t Explain how mean, median, and mode can be affected by extreme data values.
t What is a trimmed mean? How do you compute it?
t Compute a weighted average.
The average price of an ounce of gold is $1350. The Zippy car averages 39 miles
This section can be covered quickly. Good per gallon on the highway. A survey showed the average shoe size for women is
discussion topics include The Story of Old size 9.
Faithful in Data Highlights, Problem 1; Linking In each of the preceding statements, one number is used to describe the entire
Concepts, Problem 1; and the trade winds of
sample or population. Such a number is called an average. There are many ways to
Hawaii (Using Technology).
compute averages, but we will study only three of the major ones.
Average The easiest average to compute is the mode.
Mode The mode of a data set is the value that occurs most frequently. Note: If a data set
has no single value that occurs more frequently than any other, then that data set
has no mode.
EXAMPLE 1 Mode
Count the letters in each word of this sentence and give the mode. The numbers of
letters in the words of the sentence are
5 3 7 2 4 4 2 4 8 3 4 3 4
Looking Forward
LOOKING FORWARD
This feature shows students where the presented material will be used
In later chapters we will use information based later. It helps motivate students to pay a little extra attention to key
topics.
on a sample and sample statistics to estimate
population parameters (Chapter 7) or make
decisions about the value of population param-
eters (Chapter 8).
CHAPTER REVIEW
SUMMARY
In this chapter, you’ve seen that statistics is the study of how rSampling strategies, including simple random,
to collect, organize, analyze, and interpret numerical infor-
mation from populations or samples. This chapter discussed Inferential techniques presented in this text are based
some of the features of data and ways to collect data. In on simple random samples.
particular, the chapter discussed rMethods of obtaining data: Use of a census, simula-
rIndividuals or subjects of a study and the variables tion, observational studies, experiments, and surveys
associated with those individuals rConcerns: Undercoverage of a population, nonre-
r sponse, bias in data from surveys and other factors,
levels of measurement of data effects of confounding or lurking variables on other
rSample and population data. Summary measurements variables, generalization of study results beyond the
from sample data are called statistics, and those from population of the study, and study sponsorship
populations are called parameters.
▲ Chapter Summaries
The Summary within each Chapter Review feature now also appears in bulleted
form, so students can see what they need to know at a glance.
xi
Real-World Skills
Statistics is not done in a vacuum. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods gives students valu-
able skills for the real world with technology instruction, genuine applications, actual data, and group
projects.
REVISED! Tech Notes > Tech Notes Box-and-Whisker Plot

Both Minitab and the TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire calculators support box-
and-whisker plots. On the TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire, the quartiles Q1 and Q3
Tech Notes appearing throughout the text are calculated as we calculate them in this text. In Minitab and Excel 2013, they are
give students helpful hints on using TI- calculated using a slightly different process.
84Plus and TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus Keypad) Press STATPLOT ➤On.
keypad) and TI-83Plus calculators, Highlight box plot. Use Trace and the arrow keys to display the values of the
Microsoft Excel 2013, Minitab, and Minitab
Express to solve a problem. They include
display screens to help students visualize
and better understand the solution.
Med = 221.5
Excel 2013 Does not produce box-and-whisker plot. However, each value of the
Home ribbon, click the Insert Function
fx. In the dialogue box, select Statistical as the category and scroll to Quartile. In
> USING TECHNOLOGY

the dialogue box, enter the data location and then enter the number of the value you
Minitab Press Graph ➤ Boxplot. In the dialogue box, set Data View to IQRange Box.
MinitabExpress Press Graph ➤ Boxplot ➤ simple.
Binomial Distributions -
Although tables of binomial probabilities can be found in priate subtraction of probabilities, rather than addition of
most libraries, such tables are often inadequate. Either the
value of p (the probability of success on a trial) you are look- 3 to 7 easier.
ing for is not in the table, or the value of n (the number 3. Estimate the probability that Juneau will have at most 7
of trials) you are looking for is too large for the table. In clear days in December.
Chapter 6, we will study the normal approximation to the bi- 4. Estimate the probability that Seattle will have from 5 to
nomial. This approximation is a great help in many practical 10 (including 5 and 10) clear days in December.
5. Estimate the probability that Hilo will have at least 12
REVISED! Using Technology
applications. Even so, we sometimes use the formula for the
binomial probability distribution on a computer or graphing clear days in December.
calculator to compute the probability we want. 6. Estimate the probability that Phoenix will have 20 or Further technology instruction is
more clear days in December. available at the end of each chapter in
Applications 7. Estimate the probability that Las Vegas will have from
The following percentages were obtained over many years 20 to 25 (including 20 and 25) clear days in December. the Using Technology section. Problems
of observation by the U.S. Weather Bureau. All data listed Technology Hints are presented with real-world data from
are for the month of December.
TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84 a variety of disciplines that can be
Long-Term Mean % of Plus keypad), Excel 2013, Minitab/MinitabExpress
Location Clear Days in Dec.
solved by using TI-84Plus and TI-nspire
Juneau, Alaska 18% for binomial distribution functions on the TI-84Plus/
(with TI-84Plus keypad) and TI-83Plus
Seattle, Washington 24% TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus keypad) calculators, calculators, Microsoft Excel 2013, Minitab,
Hilo, Hawaii 36% Excel 2013, Minitab/MinitabExpress, and SPSS.
Honolulu, Hawaii 60%
and Minitab Express.
SPSS
Las Vegas, Nevada 75%
In SPSS, the function PDF.BINOM(q,n,p) gives the prob-
Phoenix, Arizona 77%
ability of q successes out of n trials, where p is the prob-
Adapted from Local Climatological Data, U.S. Weather Bureau publication, “Normals, ability of success on a single trial. In the data editor, name
Means, and Extremes” Table.
a variable r and enter values 0 through n. Name another
In the locations listed, the month of December is a rela- variable Prob_r. Then use the menu choices Transform ➤
tively stable month with respect to weather. Since weather Compute. In the dialogue box, use Prob_r for the target
patterns from one day to the next are more or less the same, variable. In the function group, select PDF and Noncentral
it is reasonable to use a binomial probability model. PDF. In the function box, select PDF.BINOM(q,n,p). Use
1. Let r be the number of clear days in December. Since the variable r for q and appropriate values for n and p. Note
December has 31 days, 0 r 31. Using appropriate that the function CDF.BINOM(q,n,p), from the CDF and
Noncentral CDF group, gives the cumulative probability of
the probability P(r) for each of the listed locations when 0 through q successes.
r 5 0, 1, 2, . . . , 31.
2. For each location, what is the expected value of the
probability distribution? What is the standard deviation?
xii
EXAMPLE 13 Central Limit Theorem
A certain strain of bacteria occurs in all raw milk. Let x be the bacteria count per
milliliter of milk. The health department has found that if the milk is not contami-
UPDATED! Applications
nated, then x has a distribution that is more or less mound-shaped and symmetric. Real-world applications are used
The mean of the x distribution is m 5 2500, and the standard deviation is s 5 300.
In a large commercial dairy, the health inspector takes 42 random samples of the milk from the beginning to introduce each
produced each day. At the end of the day, the bacteria count in each of the 42 samples statistical process. Rather than just
is averaged to obtain the sample mean bacteria count x. crunching numbers, students come
(a) Assuming the milk is not contaminated, what is the distribution of x? to appreciate the value of statistics
SOLUTION: The sample size is n 5 42. Since this value exceeds 30, the central
through relevant examples.
limit theorem applies, and we know that x will be approximately normal, with
mean and standard deviation
11. Pain Management: Laser Therapy “Effect of Helium-Neon Laser

Auriculotherapy on Experimental Pain Threshold” is the title of an article in
the journal Physical Therapy (Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 24–30). In this article, laser
therapy was discussed as a useful alternative to drugs in pain management of
chronically ill patients. To measure pain threshold, a machine was used that de-
livered low-voltage direct current to different parts of the body (wrist, neck, and
back). The machine measured current in milliamperes (mA). The pretreatment
Most exercises in each section detectable) at m 5 3.15 mA with standard deviation s 5 1.45 mA. Assume that
are applications problems. the distribution of threshold pain, measured in milliamperes, is symmetric and
more or less mound-shaped. Use the empirical rule to
(a) estimate a range of milliamperes centered about the mean in which about
68% of the experimental group had a threshold of pain.
(b) estimate a range of milliamperes centered about the mean in which about
95% of the experimental group had a threshold of pain.
12. Control Charts: Yellowstone National Park Yellowstone Park Medical
Services (YPMS) provides emergency health care for park visitors. Such
health care includes treatment for everything from indigestion and sunburn
to more serious injuries. A recent issue of Yellowstone Today (National Park
DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Break into small groups and discuss the following topics. Organize a brief outline in
GROUP PROJECTS which you summarize the main points of your group discussion.
Data Highlights: Group
1.Examine Figure 2-20, “Everyone Agrees: Slobs Make Worst Roommates.”
This is a clustered bar graph because two percentages are given for each re-
sponse category: responses from men and responses from women. Comment
about how the artistic rendition has slightly changed the format of a bar graph. Projects
Do the bars seem to have lengths that accurately the relative percentages
of the responses? In your own opinion, does the artistic rendition enhance or Using Group Projects, students gain
confuse the information? Explain. Which characteristic of “worst roommates” experience working with others by
does the graphic seem to illustrate? Can this graph be considered a Pareto chart
for men? for women? Why or why not? From the information given in the - discussing a topic, analyzing data,
ure, do you think the survey just listed the four given annoying characteristics? and collaborating to formulate their
Do you think a respondent could choose more than one characteristic? Explain
response to the questions posed in
FIGURE 2-20 the exercise.
Source: Advantage Business Research for Mattel Compatibility
xiii
Making the Jump
Get to the “Aha!” moment faster. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods provides the push
students need to get there through guidance and example.
Procedures and
PROCEDURE
Requirements
How to test M when S is known Procedure display boxes summarize
simple step-by-step strategies for
Requirements
carrying out statistical procedures
Let x be a random variable appropriate to your application. Obtain a simple and methods as they are intro-
random sample (of size n) of x values from which you compute the sample duced. Requirements for using
mean x. The value of s is already known (perhaps from a previous study). the procedures are also stated.
If you can assume that x has a normal distribution, then any sample size n Students can refer back to these
will work. If you cannot assume this, then use a sample size n 30. boxes as they practice using the
Procedure procedures.
1. In the context of the application, state the null and alternate hypothe-
ses and set the a.
2. Use the known s, the sample size n, the value of x from the sample, and m
from the null hypothesis to compute the standardized sample test statistic.
x m
z5 GUIDED EXERCISE 11 Probability Regarding x
s
1n In mountain country, major highways sometimes use tunnels instead of long, winding roads over high passes. However,
too many vehicles in a tunnel at the same time can cause a hazardous situation. Traffic engineers are studying a long
3. Use the standard tunnel in Colorado.
normal distribution and theIf x represents
type ofthetest,
time for a vehicle to go
one-tailed orthrough the tunnel, it is known that the x distribution
has mean m 5 12.1 minutes and standard deviation s 5 3.8 minutes under ordinary traffic conditions. From a
P-value corresponding to the test statistic.
histogram of x values, it was found that the x distribution is mound-shaped with some symmetry about the mean.
4. Conclude the test. If P-value a, then reject H0. If P-value 7 a,
Engineers have calculated that, on average, vehicles should spend from 11 to 13 minutes in the tunnel. If
then do not reject H0. the time is less than 11 minutes, traffic is moving too fast for safe travel in the tunnel. If the time is more than
5. Interpret your conclusion in 13
theminutes,
contextthereof
is athe
problem of bad air quality (too much carbon monoxide and other pollutants).
application.
Under ordinary conditions, there are about 50 vehicles in the tunnel at one time. What is the probability that the
mean time for 50 vehicles in the tunnel will be from 11 to 13 minutes?
We will answer this question in steps.
(a) Let x represent the sample mean based on sam- From the central limit theorem, we expect the x dis-
ples of size 50. Describe the x distribution. tribution to be approximately normal, with mean and
standard deviation
s 3.8
mx 5 m 5 12.1 sx 5 5 < 0.54
1n 150
(b) Find P111 6 x 6 132. We convert the interval

11 6 x 6 13
Jupiterimages/Stockbyte/Getty Images
to a standard z interval and use the standard normal

probability table to find our answer. Since
x m x 12.1
Guided Exercises z5
s/ 1n
<
0.54
11 12.1
Students gain experience with new x 5 11 converts to z < 5 2.04
0.54
procedures and methods through 13 12.1
Guided Exercises. Beside each problem and x 5 13 converts to z < 5 1.67
0.54
in a Guided Exercise, a completely Therefore,
worked-out solution appears for im- P111 6 x 6 132 5 P1 2.04 6 z 6 1.672
mediate reinforcement. 5 0.9525 0.0207
5 0.9318
(c) Interpret your answer to part (b). It seems that about 93% of the time, there should be no
xiv safety hazard for average traffic flow.
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
were weak enough to believe, or wicked enough to invent, such
absurd fables? Yet these are the men who opposed Christianity, and
this is the system which a large portion of the Jewish nation has
preferred for 1700 years. That the Rabbinical Jews have firmly
believed these legends is plain. They occur in the Talmud, whose
authority is regarded as divine. They are repeated by Rashi,
Ramban, Bechai, and a whole host of the most esteemed Jewish
writers. They have formed a part of the synagogue service for
centuries, and are still found in the Prayer-books of the English
Jews, to testify that they are not yet emancipated from the chains of
superstition. If they had been, if any considerable number of Jews
had been convinced of the falsehood of these stories, they would
never have suffered them to remain in the worship of God. It is
utterly impossible to suppose that men would sanction the solemn
propagation of falsehood, and yet whenever the Pentecost prayers
are read or printed, there the fables of Behemoth and Leviathan,
Adam and the Sabbath, Turnus Rufus and the Sambation, are
solemnly accredited to the world as worthy of all belief and honour.
The fact that they constitute a part of a solemn address to Almighty
God, and that not from an individual, but from the congregation of
Israel, gives them a sanction that nothing else could confer. The
foreign Jew who comes to England from some country where there
is not so much light, might, if he found such fables struck out of the
English synagogue service, obtain a little light, and go back to his
countrymen with the news, that the enlightened English Jews have
rejected all these absurdities; and thus the moral emancipation of the
nation might be prepared throughout the world. But no; the
superstitious Talmudist from Turkey, or from Barbary, or the North,
arrives in England, goes to the synagogue, and finds the same
fables and the same superstitions that he had learned in his less
favoured native land, and returns as he came. Perhaps he takes with
him a copy of the synagogue prayers, printed in London, and
exhibits to his countrymen Behemoth and Leviathan, the
necromancers and the Sambation, adorned with all the beauty of
English printing, paper, and binding. There is surely a great and
solemn responsibility resting on those Israelites who do not believe
these fables, to protest against their admission into the prayers of
the synagogue. The honour of the nation, the welfare of their
brethren, and the glory of God, all call for such a public protestation.
The Jewish nation is a great and intellectual people, highly gifted by
God with those powers that adorn and dignify humanity. But this is
not the estimate formed by the world at large. Why not? Because the
world at large knows only the fables and absurdities of the Talmud,
but is ignorant of the real monuments of Jewish genius. What can be
said, then, by an advocate for the Jews, to one who holds the Jewish
mind cheap? All arguments will prove powerless as long as these
instances of superstition and folly are contained in the Jewish
prayers. The objector will still point to them, and say, If you want to
know what men really believe, do not look at their controversial
works, or their apologetic writings, but examine their Prayer-book.
Consider not what they say to man, but listen to what they say to
God. There they are sincere. What can we answer to this argument?
Can we say that all the follies and intolerance of former generations
are expunged? No; whether from love or from listlessness, there
they abide to this day.
But the honour of the nation is but of small weight compared with its
spiritual and temporal prosperity. The English Jews might, by erasing
all such passages, and thoroughly reforming their Prayer-book,
prove a blessing to their brethren scattered through the world. Do the
intelligent and enlightened part of the nation really wish to raise their
brethren in the moral scale? It must be done by purifying their
religious notions. There is an inseparable bond of union between
religion and moral virtue. Superstition degrades and enfeebles the
mind; but zeal for the glory of God calls still more loudly upon every
devout Israelite to vindicate the honour of that revelation which God
consigned to their care, and which is obscured by these fabulous
additions.
No. XIX.
LEGENDS IN THE PRAYERS FOR PENTECOST.
One of the most glorious circumstances in the national history of

Israel, as well as one of the most extraordinary facts in the records of
mankind, is the descent of the Lord God upon Mount Sinai to
proclaim the law. Glorious it is for Israel, for never did nation hear the
voice of the Lord, speaking out of the midst of the fire, as Israel
heard. The display of God’s grace and favour is the glory of his
people, and here they were both displayed pre-eminently. The
grandeur and awfulness of the scene we cannot now enter upon,
except to remark, that the grandeur of the reality is equalled by the
dignity of the narrative, which Moses has left us in the 19th and 20th
chapters of Exodus. None but an inspired historian could have
treated an event so honourable to his nation, with such majestic
simplicity. The style and tone furnish an irresistible evidence to the
truth of the relation. And perhaps this evidence is much strengthened
by the contrast presented in the writings of the rabbies. There is no
part of the Scripture history which they have more amplified by
additions of their own; as plainly stamped with falsehood, as the
other with truth. We have here a wide field before us, but shall
confine ourselves to those legends which are authenticated in the
synagogue prayers for the anniversary of that great event. In the
morning service for the second day is found an account of the giving
of the law, in which the following wonderful passage occurs:—
‫ צרופה קבלו במנוד‬, ‫ צלע כגיגית עליהם כפפת‬, ‫צבאות קודש אחזום בעתה‬
‫ואימתה ׃‬
“Dread seized the holy hosts, when thou didst turn the mountain over
them as a tub: they received the pure law with fear and tremor.” (D.
Levi’s Pentecost Prayers, fol. 150.) Here is a circumstance in the
giving of the law, which few readers of the Pentateuch will
remember. All will grant that to see Mount Sinai hanging over them,
like a tub or an extinguisher, was a very dreadful sight, if it really
happened. But surely every reasonable Israelite will inquire upon
what evidence it rests? In all the previous history God appears as a
merciful Father, visiting his children in their affliction, redeeming
them from bondage, and exhibiting miracle after miracle as their
safety or their necessity required; how is it, then, that He appears so
suddenly in the character of a tyrant or a destroyer, ready to drop the
mighty mountain upon the heads of his people, and cover them up
for ever under the rocky mass? Moses throws no light upon the
subject. The oral law, the Talmud, must explain the mystery.
‫ויתיצבו בתחתית ההר אמר ר׳ אבדימי בר חמא בר חסא מלמד שכפה עליהם‬
‫הקב׳׳ה את ההר כגיגית ואמר להם אם תקבלו את התורה מוטב ואם לאו שם‬
‫ אמר ר׳ אחא בר יעקב מכאן מודעא רבה לאורייתא וכו׳ ׃‬, ‫תהא קבורתכם‬
“And they stood at the nether part of the mountain (or beneath the
mountain). (Exod. xix. 17.) R. Avdimi, the son of Chama, the son of
Chasa, says, These words teach us that the Holy One, blessed be
He, turned the mountain over them like a tub, and said to them, If ye
will receive the law, well; but if not, there shall be your grave. R.
Acha, the son of R. Jacob, says, This is a great confession for the
law.” (Shabbath, fol. 88, 1.) From this extract it appears that the
whole foundation of the fable is a sort of pun upon the words ‫בתחתית‬
‫ההר‬, “beneath the mountain,” or as the English translators rightly
have it, “at the nether port of the mountain.” R. Avdimi thought that
these words meant, as Rashi says, ‫תחת ההר ממש‬, “under the
mountain in the strictest sense of the words.” But then the puzzle
was, how the Israelites got into that situation. R. Abdimi’s
imagination supplied the rest. But in the first place, the word ‫תחתית‬
occurs often enough in both the singular and plural, but never has
this signification. In the second place, this fable directly contradicts
the Mosaic account. God had already sent notice to inform the
people of the giving of the law, and they had replied, “All that the
Lord hath spoken we will do.” (Ver. 8.) In the third place, if the
mountain was turned over them like a tub, how did Moses get up to
the top, and what necessity was there for the command, “Go down,
charge the people, lest they break through?” &c. (Ver. 21.) And lastly,
if the law was forced upon the Israelites contrary to their wish,
cannot they make this an apology for disobedience? Is not this what
R. Acha, the son of Jacob, actually does, when he says, “This is a
great confession for the law?” So at least Rashi explains his words.
‫מודעא רבה שאם יזמינם לדין למה לא קיימתא מה שקבלתם עליכם יש להם‬
‫תשובה שקבלוה באוס ׃‬
“A great confession, for if he call them to judgment, saying, Why
have ye not kept that which ye took upon yourselves, they have an
answer, that they were forced to receive it.” (Rashi Comment. in loc.)
And this fable, contrary to the narrative of Moses, derogatory to the
mercy of God, and subversive to the principle of human
responsibility, the rabbies have introduced into the prayers of the
synagogue, and there it still stands as an evidence of the absence of
God’s Spirit from those who rejected Jesus of Nazareth, and
imposed the oral law upon Israel. But this want of wisdom appears
not only in the nature of the additions which they have made to the
Word of God, but also in the conflicting statements which these
additions contain. In the legend just given Israel is represented as
having been unwilling to receive the law, and yet in the morning
service for the first day of Pentecost, we have an allusion to another
legend, which describes the great reward bestowed upon them,
because they received it with such a ready mind.
, ‫ מרם נשמע נעשה נמו‬, ‫ ונעשה לנשמע הקדימו‬, ‫הם קבלו עול תורה עלימו‬
‫ למלוכה וכהונה וללויה אוימו ׃‬, ‫ ולשני כתרים סוימו‬, ‫וצדקה בה נחשבה למו‬
“They willingly took the yoke of his law upon them, and caused the
expression, ‘We will do,’ to precede, ‘We will hearken;’ before they
heard it they said, ‘We will do,’ and which was accounted for
righteousness to them; and they were dignified with two crowns; and
rendered awful with the sovereignty of the priesthood, and the
Levitical institution.” (Pentecost Prayers, fol. 86.) At first sight it
would appear as if this were a mere figurative expression to denote
either the priesthood and the Levitical institution, or the monarchy
and the priesthood. But then a difficulty occurs, why are only two
crowns mentioned? Every one knows that in a figurative sense the
oral law says that Israel is crowned with three crowns, as it is said,
‫בשלש כתרים נכתרו ישראל כתר תורה וכתר כהונה וכתר מלכות ׃‬
“Israel is crowned with three crowns, the crown of the law, and the
crown of the priesthood, and the crown of the kingdom.” (Hilchoth
Talmud Torah, chap. iii. 1.) Why then does this prayer only mention
two? It is because it refers to a totally different circumstance. The
number of the crowns, and the reason assigned for their bestowal,
“because they caused the expression ‘We will do,’ to precede ‘We
will hearken,’” both identify the allusion as being made to the
following Talmudic legend:—
‫בשעה שהקדימו ישראל נעשה לנשמע באו ששים ריבוא של מלאכי השרת לכל‬
‫אחד ואחד מישראל קשרו לו שני כתרים אחד כנגד נעשה ואחד כנגד נשמע וכיון‬
‫שחטאו ישראל ירדו מאה ועשרים רבוא מלאכי חבלה ופרקום שנאמר ויתנצלו בני‬
‫ישראל את עדים מהר חורב ׃‬
“In the hour when Israel caused, ‘We will do,’ to precede ‘We will
hearken,’ there came six hundred thousand ministering angels, one
to each Israelite, and invested him with two crowns, one answering
to ‘We will do;’ and the second answering to ‘We will hearken.’ But
when Israel sinned, there descended twelve hundred thousand evil
angels, and took them away: as it is said, ‘The children of Israel
stripped themselves (or were stripped) of their ornaments by the
mount Horeb.’” (Ex. xxxiii. 6.) (Shabbath, fol. 88, 1.) Here, then, is no
allegory, no allusion to the allegorical crowns of Israel, but a
narrative of a supposed fact, which occurred in the history of each of
the six hundred thousand Israelites who went forth from Egypt. The
commentary in the Talmud evidently treats this as a grave and
authentic history, for it tells us the material of which the crowns were
composed.
‫שני כתרים של הוד היו לפיכך כשנטלם משה קרן עור פניו ׃‬
“The two crowns were crowns of glory, therefore, when Moses wore
them the skin of his face shone.” From this it is evident that the
Rabbinists considered this legend to be as authentic as the fact
recorded in the Bible (Exod. xxxiv. 30), that the skin of Moses’ face
shone. They were not satisfied with the honour conferred upon
Moses, but were led, by a vainglorious feeling, to extend it to every
individual Israelite, and to add what is not said of Moses, but what
increases the marvellousness of the narrative, that six hundred
thousand angels descended for the purpose of crowning Israel, and
that twice that number was necessary for the removal of the crowns
once conferred. But how does this story agree with the former? If the
Israelites were compelled to receive the law against their will, by the
terrors of the mountain hanging over their heads, what great merit
was there to deserve these two crowns? If the Israelites were so
willing, and received such a glorious reward, what necessity was
there for turning the mountain over them like a tub? These stories
are inconsistent in themselves, without foundation in the Word of
God, and are therefore unworthy of a place in the prayers of Israel.
But this prayer has other particulars equally wonderful, to which we
proceed. A sentence or two farther on, this prayer describes the
effect which the delivery of the ten commandments produced upon
Israel.
‫ שתים זו‬, ‫ ועשרים וארבעה מיל מהלך נעו עמו‬, ‫ואחת בדברו החריד עולמו‬
‫כהשמיעו נואמו ׃‬
“When he spoke the first word, his world was terrified, and when they
heard two commandments, they moved backward the space of
twenty-four ‫ מיל‬miles.” (Pentecost Prayers, fol. 87.) To understand
this, we must again refer to the Talmud, which gives us the
particulars.
‫אמר ר׳ יהושע בר לוי כל דבור ודבור שיצא מפי הקב׳׳ה חזרו ישראל לאחוריהן י׳׳ב‬
‫מיל והיו מלאכי השרת מדדין אותן שנאמר מלאכי צבאות ידודון ידודון אל תקרא‬
‫ידודון אלא ידדון ׃‬
“Rabbi Joshua, the son of Levi, says, as each commandment
proceeded from the mouth of the Holy One, blessed be He, Israel
retreated twelve miles, and the ministering angels led them back, as
it is said, ‘the angels of the host did flee apace.’ (Ps. lxviii. 13.) Do
not read ‫‘ ְיַֹד ּדּון‬they fled;’ but ‫ְיַד ּדּון‬, ‘they led.’” (Shabbath, fol. 88, 2.) In
this short passage we have two deliberate alterations of the Word of
God, in order to square it with this absurd tradition. In the first place,
‫“ מלכי צבאות‬Kings of hosts” is changed into ‫“ מלאכי צבאות‬angels of
hosts,” and in the second place, “They fled,” is changed into “they
led.” These alterations do of themselves throw discredit upon the
story which requires them, and not only upon this story, but upon the
whole oral law, which allows such trifling with the Word of God. But
our business is at present with the legend, and as it is told a little
more circumstantially in the Jalkut, it will be well to give that version
of it also.
‫ויעמדו מרחוק חוץ לשנים עשר מיל מגיד שהיו ישראל נרתעין לאחוריהן שנים‬
‫עשר מיל וחוזרין לפניהם שנים עשר מיל הרי עשרים וארבעה מיל על כל דבור‬
‫ודבור נמצאו מהלכין באותו היום מאתים וארבעים מיל באותה שעה אמר הקב׳׳ה‬
‫למלאכי השרת רדו וסייעו את אהיכם שנאמר מלכי צבאות ידודון ידודון ידודון‬
‫בהליכה ידודון בחזרה ׃‬
“‘They removed and stood afar off’ (Exod. xx. 18)—a distance of
twelve miles. This shows us that Israel retreated backwards twelve
miles, and then advanced forwards twelve miles, altogether twenty-
four miles, as each commandment was delivered. Thus they
travelled in that day two hundred and forty miles. At that time the
Holy One, blessed be He, said to the ministering angels, Descend
and help your brethren, for it is said, ‘The Kings of hosts did lead, did
lead.’ (Ps. lxviii. 13.) That is, they led when they went, and they led
them when they returned.” (Jalkut Shimoni, part i. fol. 53, 1.) It is
hardly needful to point out the absurdity of this narration. Just think
of the Israelites running away twelve miles, when they heard a
commandment, and then brought back again, and then running away
again. How unlike the simple and dignified narrative which Moses
has left! We ask every intelligent Israelite what he thinks? Is this
story a falsehood? If so, why is it left in the prayers of the
synagogue? If it stood alone, we might suppose that by some
oversight or other it had crept in, but we have already noticed many
like it, and the very next sentence of this same prayer contains
another.
‫ חיל‬, ‫ פחד קראם ורעד החילם‬, ‫ רעשו אומות העולם‬, ‫ברדתו לדבר לאם עולם‬
‫ לנחש בקסמי‬, ‫ ואצל קמואל באו כלם‬, ‫ סערו וחרדו וסר עלם‬, ‫כיולדה הבהילם‬
‫ שמא היום למימיו חוזר העולם ׃‬, ‫ ושאלו לו מה זה בא לעולם‬, ‫קלקולם‬
“When he came down to speak to the immortal people, the people of
the world were moved, dread seized them, and trembling laid hold
on them; pain troubled them as a woman in travail: they were shaken
and disturbed, and their shadow departed from them; they all came
to Kemuel, to divine with their erroneous divinations, and asked him,
What is this that hath happened to the world? Perhaps the world is
this day to return to its chaos.” The preceding story told us what
happened to Israel, the allusion in this sentence tells us of the terror
which came upon the Gentiles; but to understand the allusion, we
must again refer to the Talmud.
‫וישמע יתרו כהן מדין מה שמועה שמע ובא ונתגייר ר׳ יהושוע אומר מלחמה עמלק‬
‫ ר׳׳א המודעי‬, ‫שמע שהרי כתוב בצדו ויחלש יהושע את עמלק ואת עמו לפי הרב‬
‫אומר מתן תורה שמע שכשנתנה תורה לישראל קולו הולך מסוף עולם ועד סופו‬
‫וכל אומות העולם אחזתן רעדה בהיכליהן ואמרו שירה שנאמר ובהיכלו כולו אומר‬
‫כבוד נתקבצו כולם אצל בלעם הרשע ואמרו לו מה קול ההמון הזה אשר שמענו‬
‫ כבר נשבע‬, ‫שמא מבול בא לעולם אמר להם ה׳ למבול ישב וישב ה׳ למך לעולם‬
‫הקב׳׳ה שאינו מביא מבול לעולם אמרו לו מבול של מים אינו מביא אבל מבול של‬
‫אש מביא שנאמר כי הנה באש ה׳ נשפט אמר להם כבר נשבע שאינו משחית כל‬
‫ ומה קול ההמון הזה אשר שמענו אמר להן חמדה טובה יש לו בבית גנזין‬, ‫בשר‬
‫שהיתה גנוזה אצלו תתקע׳׳ד דורות קודם שנברא העולם ובקש ליתנה לבניו‬
‫שנאמר ה׳ עוז לעמו יתן פתחו כולם ואמרו ה׳ יברך את עמו בשלום ׃‬
“‘And Jethro the priest of Midian heard.’ (Exod. xviii. 1.) What was it
that he heard which induced him to come and be a proselyte? R.
Joshua says, he heard of the war with Amalek, for immediately
before it is written, ‘And Joshua discomfited Amalek and his people
with the edge of his sword.’ (Exod. xvii. 13.) R. Eliezer, the Modite,
says, he heard the giving of the law, for when the law was given to
Israel, his voice went from one end of the world to the other, and all
the nations of the world were seized with trembling in their temples,
and they repeated a hymn, as it is said, ‘In his temple doth every one
speak of his glory.’ (Psalm xxix. 9.) They gathered themselves
together to Baalam the wicked, and said to him, What is the voice of
the tumult which we have heard? Perhaps a flood is coming upon
the world. He replied, ‘The Lord sitteth upon the flood; yea, the Lord
sitteth King for ever.’ (Verse 10.) The Holy One, blessed be He, has
sworn long since that He will not bring a flood upon the world. They
replied, He will not bring a flood of waters, but He will bring a flood of
fire! for it is said, ‘By fire will the Lord plead.’ (Isaiah lxvi. 16.) He
answered them, He has sworn long since that he will not destroy all
flesh. What, then, is the voice of the tumult which we have heard?
He said to them, God has had a most desirable good in the house of
his treasures, which has been treasured up with him for nine
hundred and seventy-four generations before the creation of the
world, and he now seeks to give it to his children, for it is said, ‘The
Lord will give strength to his people.’ Then they all began and said,
‘The Lord will bless his people with peace.’” (Ps. xxix. 11.) (Zevachin,
fol. 116, 1.) This is the fable to which your prayers refer, and which
all Israel throughout the world is taught to believe, and to
commemorate in the solemn act of public worship. That it is a mere
fable is very easy to prove. First, it contradicts the narrative given by
Moses. This fable says that the tremendous noise made at the giving
of the law, brought Jethro to Moses—that this was what he heard.
But if you will read the whole verse, from which the Talmud quotes a
few words, you will find that there was no occasion for asking what
Jethro heard, for Moses himself expressly tells us what he heard,
and why he came. “When Jethro, the priest of Midian, Moses’ father-
in-law, heard of all that God had done for Moses, and for Israel his
people, and that the Lord had brought Israel out of Egypt, then
Jethro,” &c. (Exodus xviii. 1-5.) If you will read the whole chapter,
you will find that Jethro was come and gone before the law was
given, and consequently before the tremendous noise was made; so
that it is certainly false that this was the cause of his coming.
Secondly, that all the nations heard the voice of God is false, for it
also contradicts the language of Moses, who makes it the peculiar
privilege of Israel, that they alone heard the voice. “Did ever people
hear the voice of God speaking out of the midst of the fire, as thou
hast heard, and live?” (Deut. iv. 33.) Lastly, this story is palpably
absurd. The Talmud represents Balaam and his Gentile
contemporaries quoting Scripture like two rabbies, and that,
hundreds of years before the portions which they quote were written!
They both quote the 29th Psalm, a Psalm of David, about 500 years
before he was born, and the Gentiles quote the 66th of Isaiah above
700 years before it was written! And your rabbies have not been
content to keep this absurd and foolish story in the Talmud, but have
inserted it in the prayers for the solemn festival of Pentecost.
According to these prayers, you are taught to believe that, at the
giving of the law, God turned Mount Sinai over the people of Israel
like a tub, and compelled them to receive the law against their will;
and yet that, for their ready obedience, six hundred thousand angels
were sent down to crown each man with two crowns. You are taught
to believe that when the commandments were given, Israel walked
backwards and forwards two hundred and forty miles. And that the
voice of God was so loud that it was heard by all the nations of the
world, who all went to Balaam, and all knew and quoted the Psalms
and the prophets, centuries before they were written. This is what
you have got by following the oral law. It is in vain for you to say that
you do not believe these things—there they stand in your Prayer-
book. If you do not believe them, why do you leave them there? But
whatever individuals may say, it is evident that the compilers of the
Jewish Liturgy heartily believed every word of them, and therefore
introduced them into their prayers. And it is equally certain that,
wherever the Talmud maintains its authority, these fables form part of
the faith of Israel. But some will say, We do not believe them. Why
not; Do you disbelieve them because they are true? No, but because
they are false. Then you confess that the oral law contains downright
palpable falsehoods, and that in many of its narrations it is not
worthy of credence. Of what value, then, is the oral law, and what
credit can we give to the authors of it, who did not scruple to invent
these foolish stories?
No. XX.
LEGENDS IN THE PRAYERS FOR PENTECOST.
Nearly eighteen centuries have now elapsed since a large portion of

the Jewish nation deliberately chose Rabbinism in preference to
Christianity. The great question between Jews and Christians is,
whether those persons made a right choice. The means of
answering the question are within our reach. The oral law exists,
diffused through the volumes of the Talmud, and compressed in the
prayers of the synagogue. There we can look for it, and judge of its
spirit and its intrinsic excellence and evidence. The Rabbinists say,
that the oral law was given to Moses on Mount Sinai, and that the
oral law which they now possess, is identically the same as that then
received; and they appeal in proof of this assertion to the continuity
of its transmission from father to son down to the present day. The
Christian objects that this oral law is full of fables. The Talmudist
replies by making a distinction between the ‫ דינים‬the laws and the
Agadah, or legendary part: and the Christian is satisfied or silenced
until he opens the Jewish Prayer-book, and finds that the most
absurd and improbable of all the Talmudic legends are there
recognised as undoubted verities, and integral parts of modern
Judaism. Many of these, and sufficient to annihilate all claims which
the oral law can make to truth, have been examined, but as this part
of the subject is important, two more must be considered before we
can at present take leave of them. In the sentence immediately
following our last extract from the Jewish prayers we read as follows:
—
‫ כולם‬, ‫ והעתידים לעמוד אחריהם‬, ‫ אשר עמדו לפניהם‬, ‫וכל דור ודור ומנהיגיהם‬
‫ טוב טעם ודעת‬, ‫ להודיעם כי דור דע נחשק מכולהם‬, ‫העמידם בסיני עמהם‬
‫ כי שלמים ומושלמים היו כולהם ׃‬, ‫ וכל מום לא היה בהם‬, ‫להשכילהם‬
Which D. Levi thus translates, “And every generation, and its
governors that existed before them, and those that rose after them,
were all placed at Mount Sinai with them, to let them know, that the
intelligent generation was more acceptable than them; to make them
understand good judgment and knowledge: there was no blemish in
them, for they were entirely perfect.” (Pentecost Prayers, p. 87.) The
assembling of the living nation of Israel, to hear the voice of the
Creator, was not grand enough for the rabbies, they have therefore
added that the souls of all the unborn generations were present to
hear and receive the law. The comparison of this tradition with some
already considered suggests several interesting topics for inquiry.
For instance, whether these souls were under the mountain or not
when it was turned over them—whether they performed the journey
of two hundred and forty miles backwards and forwards at the giving
of the ten commandments, &c.? But the authority, which this tradition
confers on the oral law, demands our more immediate attention, and
is particularly manifest in that version of the story, which is found in
Medrash Rabba.
‫ אמר ר׳ יצחק מה שהנביאים עתידין‬, ‫וידבר אלהים את כל הדברים האלה לאמר‬
‫להתנבאות בכל דור ודור קבלו מהר סיני שכן משה אומר להם לישראל כי את‬
‫ עמנו עומד היום אין‬, ‫אשר ישנו פה עמנו עומד היום ואת אשר איננו פה עמנו היום‬
‫כתיב כאן אלא איננו עמנו היום אלו הנשמות העתידות להבראות שאין בהן ממש‬
‫שלא נאמרה בהן עמידה שאע׳׳פ שלא הין באותה שעה כל אחד ואחד קבל את‬
‫ בימי מלאכי לא נאמר אלא‬, ‫שלו וכן הוא אומר משא דבר ה׳ אל ישראל ביד מלאכי‬
‫ביד מלאכי שכבר היתה הנבואה בידו מהר סיני ועד אותה שעה לא נתנה לו רשות‬
‫ אמר ישעיה מיום שנתנה‬, ‫ וכן ישעיה אומר מעת היותה שם אני‬, ‫להתנבאות‬
‫תורה בסיני שם הייתי וקבלתי את הנבואה הזאת אלא ועתה ה׳ אלהים שלחני‬
‫ ולא כל הנביאים בלבד קבלו מסיני‬, ‫ורוחו עד עכשיו לא נתן לי רשות להתנבאות‬
‫נבואתן אלא אף החכמים העומדים בכל דור ודור כל אחד ואחד קבל את שלו‬
‫מסיני וכן הוא אומר את הדברים האלה דבר ה׳ אל כל קהלכם ׃‬
“‘And God spake all these words, saying.’ (Exod. xx. 1.) R. Isaac
says, that all those things, which the prophets were to prophesy in
every generation, they received from Mount Sinai, for so Moses says
to Israel, ‘But with him that standeth here with us this day, and also
with him that is not here with us this day.’ (Deut. xxix. 15.) Here in
the latter clause, it is not said, ‘That standeth with us this day,’ but
‘With him that is not here with us this day.’ These are the souls that
were to be created, who had no corporeal existence, and of whom
therefore it could not be said they stood there. But although they did
not exist in that hour, every one of them received his own, and so it
is written, ‘The burden of the Word of the Lord to Israel in the hand of
Malachi.’ (Mai. i. 1.) Here it is not said in the days of Malachi, but in
the hand of Malachi, for this prophecy had been long since in his
hand, even from Mount Sinai: but up to that time permission had not
been given him to prophesy. In like manner Isaiah says, ‘From the
time that it was, there am I.’ (Isaiah xlviii. 16.) Isaiah means to say,
From the day that the law was given there was I, and I received this
prophecy, only ‘Now the Lord God and His Spirit hath sent me;’ that
is, until then permission had not been given him to prophesy. But it
was not the prophets only who received their prophecy from Sinai,
but also the wise men in every generation, each one of them
received his own from Sinai, and so it is said, ‘These words the Lord
spake unto all your congregation.’ (Deut. v. 22.)” (Shemoth Rabba
Parashah, 28.) The object of this fable is very plain, it is to clothe the
rabbies with infallible authority. It is here asserted that the rabbies of
every generation were all present at the giving of the law, and each
received immediately from Sinai those legal decisions and doctrines
which he was to communicate to the world, and consequently every
thing, that a rabbi teaches, is infallibly right and true, and as
authoritative as the words of Moses and the prophets, for “God
spake all these words,” as this legend interprets this verse. The
rabbies of every generation are included, so that, according to this
tradition the wise men of Israel, even in this degenerate time, still
deliver infallible instructions which they received more than three
thousand years ago from the mouth of God himself. But this fable
avers too much. If all Israel was present at Sinai, and each
individual, whether prophet, or rabbi, or layman, received the law at
that time, what use was there in the transmission from father to son,
from the time of Moses down to us? Nay, more, what use is there in
teaching at all, for every man then received his own? Nay, further,
what use is the written law, for if every man was taught at Sinai,
there is no need for him to read and learn now? But this is a matter
which every Israelite can decide for himself. Let him ask himself,
how much he remembers of this wonderful event in his existence, his
presentation at Sinai, and his reception of the law from the Lord
himself. The Scripture proofs which are here given are evidently
nothing to the purpose. The first proof is, “God spake all these
words, saying.” (Exod. xx. 1.) But every one who will take the trouble
of reading the chapter will see, that “all these words” cannot apply to
the prophecies, nor to the decisions of the rabbies, but to the ten
commandments and to them only. So far from delivering all the
decisions and comments since taught by the rabbies, God spake
only the ten commandments to the people, and when they heard
these, “they said unto Moses, Speak thou with us and we will hear;
but let not God speak with us, lest we die.” (Verse 19.) To say,
therefore, that God’s speaking “all these words” includes the whole
oral law and all the rabbinical comments, is gross perversion of the
text, and direct contradiction of Moses’ account.
The next and most usual verse adduced to prove this fable is Deut.
xxix. 14, 15, where it is said, “Neither with you only do I make this
covenant and oath; but with him that standeth here with us this day,
before the Lord our God, and also with him that is not here with us
this day.” But this verse plainly proves the contrary, that the other
generations of Israel were there in no sense whatever. The Hebrew
words are as strong as they can be.
‫ואת אשר איננו פה עמנו היום ׃‬
Those with whom the covenant is made are divided into two classes,
“Him that standeth here,” and “Him that is not here.” If the word
standeth had been repeated, if the verse said, “With him that
standeth here, and with him that standeth not here,” there might
have been some colour for this fable: the rabbies might have urged
that though the unborn generations did not stand there, they stood
somewhere else; but the present wording of the verse utterly
excludes all possibility of existence, either corporeal or incorporeal.
“With him that is not here, ‫ ”איננו‬shows that they were there in no
sense.
The proof taken from Malachi, “The burden of the word of the Lord to
Israel in the hand of Malachi,” is nonsense. Every one, that knows
anything of Hebrew, knows that ‫ ביד‬signifies “by,” “by means of.” But
even taken literally, it will not prove that Malachi was at Sinai; there
is nothing in the words to inform us when Malachi received the
prophecy. The proof from Isaiah is more unhappy still. The whole
context shows that it is God who speaks in that verse, and not the
prophet. Indeed we might ask, if Isaiah had already received all his
prophecies at Sinai, what was the use of the vision of the Lord sitting
upon his throne, and the commission which is there given? (Isai. vi.)
And so we might ask concerning most of the prophets. The case of
Samuel is here particularly worthy of consideration. According to the
above tradition cited in the Jewish prayers, Samuel had been at
Sinai, and there received all that he was to deliver during his
sublunary existence. And yet when the word of the Lord came to
him, he did not recognise the Divine call, and three times went to Eli,
and it was Eli who at last told him that it was God. Now how is this
written history to be reconciled with the above tradition? The tradition
says that Samuel had heard the voice of God at Sinai, that there all
the prophetic words which he was ever to deliver were made known
to him, and yet the Bible says, “Now Samuel did not yet know the
Lord, neither was the word of the Lord yet revealed unto him.” (1
Sam. iii. 7.)
The last proof, taken from Deut. v. 22, if considered in its context,
also proves the contrary. The tradition quotes only a part of the
verse, “These words the Lord spake unto all your congregations;” but
if you read on you will find, “And he added no more,” which words
plainly limit the first sentence to the ten commandments. This
tradition, then, as being contrary to Scripture, to the law of Moses, is
a falsehood, and is therefore unworthy of a place in the prayers of
that people, whom God selected from all the nations of the earth to
be his witnesses, and the depositories of his truth. But this tradition
is objectionable not only as a fable, though that is a very strong
objection to any thing proposed as an article of faith, but on account
of the purpose which it was intended to serve. It was invented for the
purpose of strengthening the spiritual tyranny of the Scribes and
Pharisees over the minds of the people. It is not therefore merely an
erroneous interpretation of Scripture, nor the dream of a fanatic
imagination, but the deliberate invention of men who knew what they
were about, and had an object which they were endeavouring to
compass, and for the attainment of which they did not stick at
deliberate falsehood. They were, however, too wise to confine all the
advantages of this appearance at Sinai to themselves; they asserted
that the whole people of Israel obtained an advantage which makes
them superior to all other nations. The prayer which we have quoted
above alludes to this, when it says, “There was no blemish in them,
for they were all entirely perfect.” This sentence rather puzzles an
ordinary reader of the Bible, who thinks of the conduct and character
of Israel as there described; the Talmud, however, helps us to
understand this eulogy:—
‫מפני מה גוים מזוהמין שלא עמדו על הר סיני שבשעה שבא הנחש על חוה הטיל‬
‫ ישראל שעמדו על הר סיני פסקה זוהמתן גוים שלא עמדו על הר סיני‬, ‫בה זוהמא‬
‫ אמר ליה רב אחא בריה דובא לרב אשי גרים מאי אמר ליה‬, ‫לא פסקה זוהמתן‬
‫ דכתיב את אשר ישנו פה עמנו עומד היום לפני‬, ‫אע׳׳ג דאינהו לא הוו מזליהו הוה‬
‫ה׳ אלהינו ואת אשר איננו פה וגו׳ ׃‬
“Why are the Gentiles defiled? Because they did not stand upon
Mount Sinai, for in the hour that the serpent came to Eve, he
communicated a defilement, which was taken away from Israel when
they stood on Mount Sinai: but the defilement of the Gentiles was not
removed, as they did not stand on Sinai. Rav Acha, the son of
Rabba, said to Rav Ashai, how, then, does it fare with proselytes?
He replied, although they went not there, their good fortune (or star)
was there, as it is written, ‘With him that standeth here with us this
day, before the Lord our God, and also with him that is not here with
us this day.’ (Deut. xxix. 15.)” (Shabbath. fol. 145, col. 2, at the
bottom of the page.) The commentary on this passage quotes still
further particulars from Siphri, and says—
‫ ונתרפאו מכל מום ואף עורים ופסחים‬, ‫כל שעמדו על הר סיני נתקדשו ונטהרו‬
‫שהיו בישראל כדתניא בספרי ׃‬
“All that stood on Mount Sinai were sanctified and purified, and were
healed from every blemish, even the blind and the lame that then
happened to be in Israel, as is taught in Siphri.” In this part of the
fable the inventors of the oral law endeavour to flatter the vanity of
the Israelites, and thus to engage their affections in behalf of that
tradition which was to secure their own power. The Scribes
understood well the deceitfulness of the human heart, and knew that
men love to hear and are ready to believe any thing that tends to
their own personal aggrandizement. But in thus flattering the people,
they were turning their backs upon that example which Moses set
them; and contradicting the whole current of Scripture testimony.
Moses and the prophets, as the servants of God, told the people of
their sins and their evil deeds, that they might repent and be saved.
Their object was not to secure popular favour, nor to advance their
own selfish purposes; they therefore could afford to be honest and to
speak truth. The inventors of the oral law, on the contrary, were
endeavouring to erect a fabric of personal honour and power: they
were therefore obliged to address themselves to the weak side of the
human heart; and in doing so, were compelled to run counter to the
plainest declarations of God’s Word. All men and every nation like to
be told that they are superior to the rest of the world, and are
distinguished by moral endowments from the mass of mankind. The
inventors of the oral law, therefore, told Israel that they were far
elevated above all other nations, for they had been cleansed at Sinai
from that innate defilement which still contaminates all the rest of the
children of men. But is this true—is this what Moses and the
prophets say? Moses says, “Understand, therefore, that the Lord thy
God giveth thee not this good land to possess it for thy
righteousness: for thou art a stiff-necked people.” “Ye have been
rebellious against the Lord from the day that I knew you.” (Deut. ix.
6, 24.) Isaiah says of Israel, “From the sole of the foot even unto the
head there is no soundness in it, but wounds, and bruises, and
putrifying sores.” “Ah! sinful nation!—a people laden with iniquity; a
seed of evil-doers—children that are corrupters.” (Isaiah i. 4-6.) And
again he says, “Woe is me, for I am undone: because I am a man of
unclean lips, and I dwell in the midst of a people of unclean lips.”
(Isaiah vi. 5.) Jeremiah says, “Can the Ethiopian change his skin and
the leopard his spots? Then may ye also do good that are
accustomed to do evil.” (Jer. xiii. 23.) And again, “All these nations
are uncircumcised, and all the house of Israel are uncircumcised in
the heart.” (Jer. ix. 26.) The Lord himself says to Ezekiel, “Son of
man, I send thee to the children of Israel, to a rebellious nation that
hath rebelled against me: they and their fathers have transgressed
against me to this very day. For they are impudent children and stiff-
hearted.” (Ezek. ii. 3, 4.) And again, “Thou art not sent to a people of
a strange speech and of an hard language, but to the house of
Israel: not to many people of a strange speech and of an hard
language, whose words thou canst not understand; surely had I sent
thee to them, they would have hearkened unto thee. But the house
of Israel will not hearken unto thee: for they will not hearken unto me;
for all the house of Israel are impudent and hard-hearted.” (Ezek. iii.
4, 7, &c.) We do not quote these passages to show that the Gentiles
have a more favoured constitution of moral nature. Far from it; in
reading these accounts given by the prophets, we recognise the
features of our own picture. Far be it from us to glory; we cite these
passages to show you how miserably your oral law endeavours to
blind and delude you by flattering your vanity. It tells you that you
have been purged from every stain; Moses and the prophets teach
you the truth—that you are just like the other sons of men, and have
no moral superiority or advantage whatever. We wish to point out to
you how the system of rabbinism is diametrically opposed to Moses
and the prophets, and above all, to impress upon you that the
authors of this oral law are not worthy or your confidence, for they
have, for their own private interests, invented narratives and
doctrines which contradict that Word of God, which ought to be
Israel’s glory. We wish to show you how certain principles of evil
pervade every part of that system, not even excepting those prayers
which are offered up in the public worship of God. There these fables
also occur, and we ask every Israelite who loves the law of Moses or
hopes in the promises of God by the prophets, how he can
conscientiously stand by in the synagogue and hear the words of
Moses and the prophets openly contradicted? How can he remain
silent when the reader declares of Israel that there is no blemish in
them, for they are all entirely perfect, when he knows and feels that
he and all his brethren are just as frail, as sinful, and as imperfect as
the other sons of men? How can they expect the return of God’s
favour to their nation so long as these fictions are made a part of
public worship? Moses teaches very different doctrine. He says, “If
they shall confess their iniquity, and the iniquity of their fathers, with
their trespass which they have trespassed against me, and that also
they have walked contrary unto me; and that I also have walked
contrary unto them, and have brought them into the land of their
enemies: if then their uncircumcised hearts be humbled, and they
then accept of the punishment of their iniquity: then will I remember
my covenant with Jacob, and also my covenant with Isaac, and also
my covenant with Abraham will I remember: and I will remember the
land.” (Levit. xxvi. 40-42.) Here Moses makes a conviction and
acknowledgment of guilt, an indispensable preliminary to the return
of God’s favour to the nation. Israel must feel that, so far from being
cleansed from all impurity, their heart is uncircumcised, and this
uncircumcised heart must be humbled; but how is this possible, so
long as the oral law and the prayers of the synagogue teach that the
Israelites are the most righteous of mankind, because they received
the law, which the other nations rejected—and the most pure, or
rather the only pure, of mankind, inasmuch as they were cleansed
from every taint at Sinai? These doctrines harden the heart against
true humility, prevent true repentance, and thereby retard the
happiness and the glory of Israel.

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3 Averages and Variation 88

USING TECHNOLOGY 138

Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 1-3 139

4 Elementary Probability Theory 142

USING TECHNOLOGY 194

5 The Binomial Probability

6 Normal Curves and Sampling Distributions 270

7.2 Estimating m When s Is Unknown 374

USING TECHNOLOGY 432

8 Hypothesis Testing 436

USING TECHNOLOGY 529

9 Correlation and Regression 532

USING TECHNOLOGY 616

10 Chi-Square and F Distributions 622

10.2 Chi-Square: Goodness of Fit 640

USING TECHNOLOGY 707

11 Nonparametric Statistics 710

Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 10-11 752

Appendix I: Additional Topics A1

Appendix II: Tables A9

Answers and Key Steps to Odd-Numbered Problems A39

We can use this indicator to determine whether a speciﬁed number of successes

What Does (concept, method,

Statistical Literacy Problems

box-and-whisker plot. Box-and-whisker plots provide another useful technique

SECTION 4.2 SECTION 4.3

magazines, and government reports; and the half-lives of

i. Test the claim that p is more than 0.301. Use a 5 0.01.

The Preview Questions in each chapter are followed by a

REVISED! Tech Notes > Tech Notes Box-and-Whisker Plot

> USING TECHNOLOGY

11. Pain Management: Laser Therapy “Effect of Helium-Neon Laser

Source: Advantage Business Research for Mattel Compatibility

(b) Find P111 6 x 6 132. We convert the interval

to a standard z interval and use the standard normal

One of the most glorious circumstances in the national history of

Nearly eighteen centuries have now elapsed since a large portion of

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