PROJECTION OF DEMAND

I. Arithmetic Geometric Curve

In arithmetic geometric, the value of r which is the average rate of

increase/decrease in demand of a particular product is given by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

year Demand % increase or

decrease
2004 1051039 0.00
2005 1623854 54.50
2006 1264139 -22.15
2007 2212636 75.03
2008 2059481 -6.92
2009 1524000 -26.00
TOTAL 9735149 74.46

Sample computations:
 0.148912822

FOR THE PROJECTED VALUES

year Yi +1 1+r Yc
2009 1.148912822 1,524,000
2010 1,524,000 1.148912822 1750943.14
2011 1,750,943 1.148912822 2011681.024
2012 2,011,681 1.148912822 2311246.122
2013 2,311,246 1.148912822 2655420.303
2014 2,655,420 1.148912822 3050846.434
2015 3,050,846 1.148912822 3505156.585

Sample computation:

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC

Year Yc µ (Yc-µ) (Yc-µ)^2

2010 1750943.14 2547548.935 -796605.7944 6.34581E+11
2011 2011681.024 2547548.935 -535867.9107 2.87154E+11
2012 2311246.122 2547548.935 -236302.8129 55839019403
2013 2655420.303 2547548.935 107871.3688 11636232200
2014 3050846.434 2547548.935 503297.499 2.53308E+11
2015 3505156.585 2547548.935 957607.6502 9.17012E+11
To compute for Standard Deviation:

∑
√

√ 599934.8916

II. ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT LINE

In arithmetic straight, the value of a can be computed as:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

year A Y1 + i Yc
2009 1524000
2010 94,592 1,524,000 1,618,592
2011 94,592 1,618,592 1,713,184
2012 94,592 1,713,184 1,807,777
2013 94,592 1,807,777 1,902,369
2014 94,592 1,902,369 1,996,961
2015 94,592 1,996,961 2,091,553
Sample computation:

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT

Year Yc µ Yc-µ (Yc-µ)^2

2010 1,618,592 1855072.7 -236480.5 55923026880
2011 1,713,184 1855072.7 -141888.3 20132289677
2012 1,807,777 1855072.7 -47296.1 2236921075
2013 1,902,369 1855072.7 47296.1 2236921075
2014 1,996,961 1855072.7 141888.3 20132289677
2015 2,091,553 1855072.7 236480.5 55923026880

To compute for Standard Deviation:

∑
√

√ 161546.936
 III. STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE

The projected value (YC) is computed as:

YC = A + Bx + Cx2

year Demand X
2004 1051039 1
2005 1623854 2
2006 1264139 3
2007 2212636 4
2008 2059481 5
2009 1524000 6

YEAR A B x C x2 Yc
2010 374633.2 721410.2286 7 -84200.71429 49 1298669.8
2011 374633.2 721410.2286 8 -84200.71429 64 757069.3142
2012 374633.2 721410.2286 9 -84200.71429 81 47067.39991
2013 374633.2 721410.2286 10 -84200.71429 100 -831335.943
2014 374633.2 721410.2286 11 -84200.71429 121 -1878140.714
2015 374633.2 721410.2286 12 -84200.71429 144 -3093346.915
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL PARABOLIC

year Yc µ Yc- µ (Yc- µ)^2

2010 1298669.8 - 1915339 3.66852E+12
616669.5097
2011 757069.3142 - 1373739 1.88716E+12
616669.5097
2012 47067.39991 - 663736.9 4.40547E+11
616669.5097
2013 -831335.943 - -214666 46081677606
616669.5097
2014 -1878140.714 - - 1.59131E+12
616669.5097 1261471
2015 -3093346.915 - - 6.13393E+12
616669.5097 2476677

∑
√

√ 1514791.072

IV. STATISTICAL GEOMETRIC CURVE

For statistical geometric curve, values of of a and b can be computed by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

log YC = log a + log x * log b

Year Demand x x2 log x log y xlogy

2004 1051039 1 1 0 6.021618831 6.021618831
2005 1623854 2 4 0.602059991 6.210546979 12.42109396
2006 1264139 3 9 0.954242509 6.10179483 18.30538449
2007 2212636 4 16 1.204119983 6.344909974 25.3796399
2008 2059481 5 25 1.397940009 6.31375779 31.56878895
2009 1524000 6 36 1.556302501 6.182984967 37.0979098
TOTAL 9,735,149 21 91 5.714664993 37.17561337 130.7944359

YEAR log a x Logx log b log Yc Yc

2010 6.059977737 7 0.84509804 0.038845093 6.092805649 1238242.336
2011 6.059977737 8 0.903089987 0.038845093 6.095058351 1244681.834
2012 6.059977737 9 0.954242509 0.038845093 6.097045376 1250389.666
2013 6.059977737 10 1 0.038845093 6.09882283 1255517.671
2014 6.059977737 11 1.041392685 0.038845093 6.100430732 1260174.63
2015 6.059977737 12 1.079181246 0.038845093 6.101898632 1264441.183

Sample computation:

log YC = 6.059977737+ (log 7)*

YC = 1238242.336

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL GEOMETRIC

YEAR Yc µ Yc- µ (Yc- µ)^2

2010 1238242.336 1252241.22 -13998.88421 195968759.1
2011 1244681.834 1252241.22 -7559.385953 57144315.98
2012 1250389.666 1252241.22 -1851.554366 3428253.571
2013 1255517.671 1252241.22 3276.450849 10735130.16
2014 1260174.63 1252241.22 7933.410582 62939003.46
2015 1264441.183 1252241.22 12199.9631 148839099.6

To compute for Standard Deviation:

∑
√

√ 8935.458969

V. STATISTICAL STRAIGHT LINE

For statistical straight line, values of a and b can be computed by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

Year Demand x x2 xy
2004 1051039 1 1 1051039
2005 1623854 2 4 3247708
2006 1264139 3 9 3792417
2007 2212636 4 16 8850544
2008 2059481 5 25 10297405
2009 1524000 6 36 9144000
TOTAL 9,735,149 21 91 36383113

YEAR a b x Yc
2010 1160506.533 132005.2286 7 2084543.133
2011 1160506.533 132005.2286 8 2216548.362
2012 1160506.533 132005.2286 9 2348553.59
2013 1160506.533 132005.2286 10 2480558.819
2014 1160506.533 132005.2286 11 2612564.048
2015 1160506.533 132005.2286 12 2744569.276

Sample computation:
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL STRAIGHT

YEAR Yc µ Yc- µ (Yc- µ)^2

2010 2084543.133 2414556.205 -330013.0714 1.08909E+11
2011 2216548.362 2414556.205 -198007.8429 39207105833
2012 2348553.59 2414556.205 -66002.61429 4356345093
2013 2480558.819 2414556.205 66002.61429 4356345093
2014 2612564.048 2414556.205 198007.8429 39207105833
2015 2744569.276 2414556.205 330013.0714 1.08909E+11

To compute for Standard Deviation:

∑
√

√ 225441.8463

PROJECTION OF SUPPLY

I. Arithmetic Geometric Curve

In arithmetic geometric, the value of r which is the average rate of

increase/decrease in demand of a particular product is given by:
Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

year Supply % increase or

decrease
2004 992353 0.00
2005 764541 -22.96
2006 1229219 60.78
2007 2138652 73.98
2008 1875456 -12.31
2009 1307268 -30.30
TOTAL 69.20

Sample computations:

0.138407872
 FOR THE PROJECTED VALUES

year Yi +1 1+r Yc
2009 1.138407872 1,307,268
2010 1,307,268 1.138407872 1488204.182
2011 1,488,204 1.138407872 1694183.357
2012 1,694,183 1.138407872 1928671.67
2013 1,928,672 1.138407872 2195615.012
2014 2,195,615 1.138407872 2499505.415
2015 2,499,505 1.138407872 2845456.641

Sample computation:

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC

Year Yc µ (Yc-µ) (Yc-µ)^2

2010 1488204.182 2108606.046 -620401.8638 3.84898E+11
2011 1694183.357 2108606.046 -414422.6895 1.71746E+11
2012 1928671.67 2108606.046 -179934.3759 32376379622
2013 2195615.012 2108606.046 87008.96626 7570560210
2014 2499505.415 2108606.046 390899.3684 1.52802E+11
2015 2845456.641 2108606.046 736850.5945 5.42949E+11
To compute for Standard Deviation:

∑
√

√ 464101.7656

II. ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT LINE

In arithmetic straight, the value of a can be computed as:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

year a Y1 + i Yc
2009 1307268
2010 62,983 1,307,268 1,370,251
2011 62,983 1,370,251 1,433,234
2012 62,983 1,433,234 1,496,217
2013 62,983 1,496,217 1,559,200
2014 62,983 1,559,200 1,622,183
2015 62,983 1,622,183 1,685,166
Sample computation:

STANDARD DEVIATION FOR ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT

Year Yc µ Yc-µ (Yc-µ)^2

2010 1,370,251 1527708.5 -157457.5 24792864306
2011 1,433,234 1527708.5 -94474.5 8925431150
2012 1,496,217 1527708.5 -31491.5 991714572.3
2013 1,559,200 1527708.5 31491.5 991714572.3
2014 1,622,183 1527708.5 94474.5 8925431150
2015 1,685,166 1527708.5 157457.5 24792864306

To compute for Standard Deviation:

∑
√

√ 107563.95
 III. STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE

The projected value (YC) is computed as:

YC = A + Bx + Cx2

year Supply X
2004 992353 1
2005 764541 2
2006 1229219 3
2007 2138652 4
2008 1875456 5
2009 1307268 6

YEAR A B X C x2 Yc
2010 34010.2 742864.9429 7 -82381.71429 49 1197360.8
2011 34010.2 742864.9429 8 -82381.71429 64 704500.0286
2012 34010.2 742864.9429 9 -82381.71429 81 46875.82861
2013 34010.2 742864.9429 10 -82381.71429 100 -775511.8
2014 34010.2 742864.9429 11 -82381.71429 121 -1762662.857
2015 34010.2 742864.9429 12 -82381.71429 144 -2914577.343
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL PARABOLIC

year Yc µ Yc- µ (Yc- µ)^2

2010 1197360.8 - 1781363 3.17326E+12
584002.5571
2011 704500.0286 - 1288503 1.66024E+12
584002.5571
2012 46875.82861 - 630878.4 3.98008E+11
584002.5571
2013 -775511.8 - -191509 36675790103
584002.5571
2014 -1762662.857 - - 1.38924E+12
584002.5571 1178660
2015 -2914577.343 - - 5.43158E+12
584002.5571 2330575

√ 1419448.049

IV. STATISTICAL GEOMETRIC CURVE

For statistical geometric curve, values of of a and b can be computed by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

log YC = log a + xlog b

 Year Supply x x2 log x log y xlogy
2004 992353 1 1 0 5.996666187 5.996666187
2005 764541 2 4 0.301029996 5.88340078 11.76680156
2006 1229219 3 9 0.477121255 6.089629265 18.26888779
2007 2138652 4 16 0.602059991 6.330140122 25.32056049
2008 1875456 5 25 0.698970004 6.27310688 31.3655344
2009 1307268 6 36 0.77815125 6.11636463 36.69818778
TOTAL 8,307,489 21 91 2.857332496 36.68930786 129.4166382

YEAR log a x Logx log b log Yc Yc

2010 5.914072507 7 0.84509804 0.057374896 5.962559919 917402.4997
2011 5.914072507 8 0.903089987 0.057374896 5.965887201 924458.0341
2012 5.914072507 9 0.954242509 0.057374896 5.968822072 930726.4835
2013 5.914072507 10 1 0.057374896 5.971447403 936369.8103
2014 5.914072507 11 1.041392685 0.057374896 5.973822304 941504.2918
2015 5.914072507 12 1.079181246 0.057374896 5.975990419 946216.2863

Sample computation:

log YC = 5.914072507+ (log7)* 0.057374896

YC = 917402.4997
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL GEOMETRIC

YEAR Yc µ Yc- µ (Yc- µ)^2

2010 917402.4997 932779.5676 -15377.0679 236454217.1
2011 924458.0341 932779.5676 -8321.533477 69247919.4
2012 930726.4835 932779.5676 -2053.084137 4215154.474
2013 936369.8103 932779.5676 3590.24266 12889842.36
2014 941504.2918 932779.5676 8724.724211 76120812.55
2015 946216.2863 932779.5676 13436.71864 180545407.8

To compute for Standard Deviation:

∑
√

√ 9827.456043

V. STATISTICAL STRAIGHT LINE

For statistical straight line, values of a and b can be computed by:

Whereas the projected value (YC) is computed as:

 Year Supply Unsaturated x x2 xy
2004 992353 1 1 992353
2005 764541 2 4 1529082
2006 1229219 3 9 3687657
2007 2138652 4 16 8554608
2008 1875456 5 25 9377280
2009 1307268 6 36 7843608
TOTAL 8,307,489 21 91 31984588

YEAR a b x Yc
2010 802906.2 166192.9429 7 1966256.8
2011 802906.2 166192.9429 8 2132449.743
2012 802906.2 166192.9429 9 2298642.686
2013 802906.2 166192.9429 10 2464835.629
2014 802906.2 166192.9429 11 2631028.571
2015 802906.2 166192.9429 12 2797221.514

Sample computation:
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR STATISTICAL STRAIGHT

YEAR Yc µ Yc- µ (Yc- µ)^2

2010 1966256.8 2381739.157 -415482.3571 1.72626E+11
2011 2132449.743 2381739.157 -249289.4143 62145212075
2012 2298642.686 2381739.157 -83096.47143 6905023564
2013 2464835.629 2381739.157 83096.47143 6905023564
2014 2631028.571 2381739.157 249289.4143 62145212075
2015 2797221.514 2381739.157 415482.3571 1.72626E+11

To compute for Standard Deviation:

∑
√

√ 283828.4839