ocean-climate.

org

OCEAN AND CLIMATE

SCIENTIFIC NOTES
 ocean-climate.org

Why an “Ocean and Climate”

platform ?
The ocean is a key element of the global climate system, but so far it has been relatively
absent from discussions on climate change. For all of us participating in the Ocean and
Climate Platform, it is essential to include the ocean among the issues and challenges dis-
cussed in the context of climate negociations.

Covering 71 % of the globe, the world ocean It is therefore urgent to maintain the functional
is a complex ecosystem that provides essential quality of marine ecosystems and restore those
services for the maintenance of life on Earth. that are becoming degraded.
More than 25 % of the CO2 emitted annually by
humans into the atmosphere is absorbed by the The Ocean and Climate Platform was esta-
ocean, and it is also the largest net supplier of blished from an alliance of non-governmen-
oxygen in the world, playing an equally impor- tal organizations and research institutes, with
tant role as the forests. support from the UNESCO Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission.
The ocean is therefore the principle “lung” of
the planet and is at the center of the global cli- Today the Platform includes scientific organiza-
mate system. tions, universities, research institutions, non-profit
associations, foundations, science centers, pu-
Although the ocean continues to limit global blic institutions and business organizations, all
warming, for several decades the pressure acting to bring the ocean to the forefront in cli-
of human beings – principally CO2 emissions, mate discussions.
over-exploitation of resources and pollution
have degraded marine ecosystems. The role of
the ocean in regulating the climate is likely to
be disrupted.
 ocean-climate.org

Our objectives
In December 2015 in Paris the 21st United Nations Climate Conference will take place. This
conference will establish the roadmap that will enable the international community to meet
the challenges of climate change in the coming years. The Ocean and Climate Platform
aims to :

INTEGRATE THE OCEAN IN THE DEBATE ON CLIMATE, PROMOTE SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE
AND CONTRIBUTE TO SUCCESSFUL NEGOTIATIONS LINKS BETWEEN OCEAN AND CLIMATE
FOR AN AMBITIOUS AGREEMENT AT THE COP21 The links between ocean and climate are gra-
The Paris Agreement must take into account dually becoming better defined, but the needs
the ocean and its role in the climate to best for knowledge and research are still very impor-
confront the major climate challenges in the tant. Having a set of indicators will allow us to
years to come. better monitor the evolution of the ocean within
the climate system.

INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS ABOUT THE

INFORM AND INSTRUCT PUBLIC AND PRIVATE POLICY
IMPORTANCE OF THE OCEAN IN THE GLOBAL
MAKERS ON OCEAN AND CLIMATE ISSUES
CLIMATE SYSTEM
Policy makers at all levels – heads of state, re-
Advancing the general public’s knowledge
presentatives of international organizations and
about the links between the climate with ocean
national governments, private actors – have too
and coastal areas will contribute to a better un-
little knowledge about the role of the ocean in
derstanding and consideration of the impacts of
climate. The issues related to the impacts of climate
climate change on the marine environment.
change on marine and terrestrial ecosystems of the
coast (where nearly 80 % of the world population
will concentrate in 2050) must be clearly identified.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:

Scientific Committee Coordinator
Françoise Gaill
francoise.gaill@cnrs-dir.fr

WITH THE HELP OF:

Nausicaá: Christine Causse
Tara Expeditions: Marion Di Méo, Marc Domingos, Eloïse Fontaine
Surfrider Foundation Europe: Elodie Bernollin
Institut Océanographique, Prince Albert Ier de Monaco: Corinne Copin
Ocean and Climat Platform: Ludovic Frère Escoffier
UMR AMURE: Marianne Biron
Traduction: Joséphine Ras, Patrick Chang, Dana Sardet
Graphism: Elsa Godet

CITATION
OCEAN AND CLIMATE, 2015 – Scientific Notes. www.ocean-climate.org, 96 pages.

June 2015

With the support of

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Table of contents
Foreword

Françoise Gaill...........................................................................................................................................................05

Ocean, Heat Reservoir

Sabrina Speich, Gilles Reverdin, Herlé Mercier and Catherine Jeandel….............................................07

The Ocean: a Carbon Pump

Laurent Bopp, Chris Bowler, Lionel Guidi, Éric Karsenti and Colomban de Vargas…...........................13

Sea Level Rise

Benoit Meyssignac and Gilles Reverdin.............................................................................................................19

Ocean Acidification

Jean-Pierre Gattuso and Lina Hansson............................................................................................................23

The Ocean is Losing its Breath

Kirsten Isensee, Lisa Levin, Denise Breitburg, Marilaure Gregoire, Veronique Garçon and Luis Valdés...25

The Deep Ocean: Which Climate Issues?

Nadine Le Bris.............................................................................................................................................................31

The Arctic: Opportunities, Concerns and Challenges

Emmanuelle Quillérou, Mathilde Jacquot, Annie Cudennec and Denis Bailly…......................................36

Ocean, Biodiversity and Climate

Gilles Bœuf..................................................................................................................................................................47

Ecosystem Services and Marine Conservation

Denis Bailly, Rémi Mongruel and Emmanuelle Quillérou…...........................................................................51

Coral Reefs and Climate Change

Denis Allemand.........................................................................................................................................................58

Exploited Marine Biodiversity and Climate Change

Philippe Cury..............................................................................................................................................................65

Aquaculture and Global Changes

Marc Metian...............................................................................................................................................................68

Small Islands, Ocean and Climate

Virginie Duvat, Alexandre Magnan and Jean-Pierre Gattuso......................................................................73

Informing Climate Investment Priorities for Coastal Populations

Adrien Comte, Linwood Pendleton, Emmanuelle Quillérou and Denis Bailly..........................................86

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Foreword Françoise Gaill

For decades, climate change negotiations did results in the acidification of the ocean. Ocean
not take the ocean into consideration. The fol- acidity has increased by 30% over two and a half
lowing texts reveals a change in mindset and centuries and this phenomenon continues to am-
that this planetary environment has finally been plify, thus directly threatening marine species.
given the importance it deserves in climate is-
sues. This document addresses concerns such as Indeed, the ocean is clearly a carbon sink, as it
the part the ocean plays for the climate and the can concentrate fifty times more carbon than
impacts of climate change on the ocean. the atmosphere. Both physical and biological
mechanisms contribute to the absorption and
The climate of our planet is largely dependent storage of oceanic carbon, the planktonic
upon the ocean, but who is aware of this nowa- ecosystem being the main contributor to the
days? biological pump. Although this biological car-
bon pump has been identified, the scope of its
The ocean regulates the climate at a global action still remains to be determined. It is worth
scale due to its continuous exchanges with noting that marine biodiversity only represents
the atmosphere, whether they are radiative, 13% of all described living species on Earth. This is
mechanical or gaseous. The heat from the sun particularly low, considering the colossal volume
is absorbed, stored and transported by the of the ocean. The future should tell whether this
ocean, thus affecting the atmospheric tem- is related to a lack of knowledge. Nonetheless,
perature and circulation. Although its ability to the still unknown domain of the deep ocean
store heat is much more efficient than that of may provide an answer once it is explored, as
the continents or the atmosphere, the limits of this deep environment represents more than
this storage capacity are still unknown. 98% of the volume of the ocean. The ocean is
often seen as a stable and homogeneous envi-
Marine waters are warming up, thus impacting ronment, with low biological activity, covering
the properties and dynamics of the ocean, the vast desert areas. This does not truly reflect the
interactions with the atmosphere, and the ma- diversity of deep-sea ecosystems, neither their
rine ecosystems and habitats. Coral reefs, for sensitivity to climate change.
example, cover a small area of the ocean, but
they shelter close to a third of known ma¬rine With increasing seawater temperature, the
species. An increase of less than a degree ocean expands and sea level rises. This is even
beyond a given threshold may cause bleaching faster when ice melt accelerates. Numerical
and potential loss of a reef. The consequences models forecast an increase by more than a
are significant because these bioconstructions quarter of a meter by the end of this century
provide many services including a direct source with a maximum greater than 80 cm. The causes
of livelihood for more than 500 million people and variability of this phenomenon are questions
worldwide. that are addressed in this booklet which also
presents a state of our knowledge on the evolu-
It is not sufficiently acknowledged that each tion of oxygen concentration in the ocean.
day, the ocean absorbs a quarter of the CO2
produced by humankind. This is followed by a Humanity will have to face the impacts of cli-
chemical modification of the sea water which mate change on coastal populations, as well

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as on industrial activities in the Arctic region or marine ecosystems as well as the interactions
on the fishing and aquaculture sectors. Islanders between these different factors. To which extent
are at the frontline of these global evolutions lin- can life adapt today, whether considering na-
ked to climate change. tural species or those exploited by fisheries or
produced by aquaculture? Furthermore, how
Everything cannot be assessed here, and new will tomorrow’s ecosystems cope with these
documents will progressively complete the set changes? Observations relative to these pheno-
of topics that we believe are relevant, such as mena need to be carried out and evaluate the
issues related to the anoxia of marine waters, to consequences on ecosystem services, in order
the Arctic and Polar Regions, to coastal waters to understand the overall mechanisms and to
which have only been discussed here for island infer the outcomes for our civilization.
environments, and more generally to the vulne-
rabilities related to oceanic phenomena. On Can the characteristics of the global ocean be
the basis of these syntheses focused on speci- averaged in a reasonable manner? In order to
fic areas, progress can be achieved in the de- assess the dynamics of the ocean ecosystem
velopment of possible solutions, strategies and in response to the combined effects of natural,
concrete proposals. climatic and anthropogenic instabilities in diffe-
rent parts of the ocean, the couplings between
What do we know about these processes at climate fluctuations and stability of ecological
“human” space-time scales, annual or decen- functions need to be described; this highlights
nial, regional or local scales? Actually, not much a few research topics for scientists in the future.
is known because these data are currently not
available. For the moment, only long geological These texts intend to draw public attention towar-
periods, and vast areas, have been assessed. ds questions raised upon what is known about cli-
Moreover, given the spatial diversity, the small- mate change, but also to highlight issues that still
scale mechanisms at work cannot yet be clear- remain unsure. Indeed, facing climate change,
ly deciphered. This is particularly the case for the ocean still acts as a shield upon which the
thermal variations, carbon uptake mechanisms, future of our planet greatly depends.
sea level changes, impact of acidification on

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Ocean,
Sabrina Speich,
Gilles Reverdin,
Herlé Mercier,

Heat
Catherine Jeandel

Reservoir
On our watery planet, the ocean is the primary regulator of global climate by continuous
radiative, mechanical and gaseous exchanges with the atmosphere. In particular, the
ocean absorbs, stores, and transports through its flow motion (i.e., currents) heat from the
sun affecting atmospheric temperature and circulation around the world. Furthermore,
seawater is the source of most precipitation. The ocean is much more efficient at storing
heat (93% of the excess of energy resulting from the human induced Green House Gases
content in the atmosphere) than the continents (3%) and the atmosphere (1%). As a result,
the ocean is the slow component of the climate system and has a moderating effect on
climate changes. However, consequent to the continuous absorption by the ocean of the
human induced excess of heat, ocean waters are warming, which has consequences on
the ocean’s properties and dynamics, on its exchanges with the atmosphere and on the
habitats of marine ecosystems. For a long time, discussions of climate change did not take
the oceans fully into account, simply because very little was known about them. Nonetheless,
our ability to understand and anticipate what might happen to Earth’s climate in the future,
depends on our understanding of the role of the ocean in climate.

OCEAN - HEAT RESERVOIR particular in the tropics. It exchanges heat at its

interface with the atmosphere at all latitudes,
Our Earth is the only known planet where water and with sea-ice in polar regions. The ocean is
exists in three forms (liquid, gas, solid), and in not a static environment: ocean currents are
particular as liquid oceanic water. Due to its high responsible for the redistribution of excess heat
heat capacity, radiative properties (gaseous) received at the equator towards the higher
and phase changes, the presence of water is latitudes. At these latitudes transfers of water
largely responsible both for our planet’s mild from the surface to the deep ocean occur as
climate and for the development of land life. water loses buoyancy flowing poleward due to
the effect of strong heat loss. The mechanism
The oceans represent 71% of the surface of of this vertical dense water transfer related to
the planet. They are so vast that one can an increase of sea-water density (caused by a
easily underestimate their role in the earth lowering of the temperature or an increasing
climate. The ocean is both a large reservoir, of salinity) is the starting point for the global
that continuously contributes to radiative, ocean thermohaline circulation (derived from
physical and gaseous exchanges with the the Greek Thermos: heat; halos: sea salt). The
atmosphere. These transfers and their impacts ocean also reacts dynamically to changing
on the atmosphere and the ocean are at the climatic conditions (i.e. wind, solar radiation…).
core of the climate system. The ocean receives The time scale of these processes can vary from
heat from solar electromagnetic radiation, in a seasonal or yearly scale in tropical areas to

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a decadal scale in surface waters, reaching (a)

several hundreds, even thousands of years in
the deep ocean layers. 150

100
The atmosphere and ocean do not only

0-700m OHC (ZJ

exchange heat: water is also exchanged through
50
the processes of evaporation and precipitation
(rain, snow). The oceans contain 97.5% of the
0
water on the planet, while continents contain
2.4% and the atmosphere less than 0.001%. Levitus
-50 Ishii
Water evaporates virtually continuously from Domingues
Palmer
the ocean. Rain and river runoff compensate -100 Smith

for evaporation, but not necessarily in the same 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
(b)
regions as evaporation. Furthermore, the salt
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
content in the ocean modifies the physical 50
properties of seawater, particularly its density. Deep OHC
Water exchange with the atmosphere, riverine 0
input and melting of sea ice and ice caps thus 700 - 200m
2000 - 6000m
contribute to variations in the density of sea -50
water, and hence to the ocean circulation and
vertical transfers within the ocean. Fig.1— (a) Evaluation of the yearly average of
the heat content in ZJ (1 ZJ = 1021 Joules) calculated
In addition, the renewal of surface water from observations in the surface layers of the ocean
through ocean circulation, and in particular the (between 0 and 700m depth). these estimates have
exchanges with the deep ocean layers, play a been updated from Levitus et al. (2012), Ishii and Ki-
very important role in carbon cycling as high moto (2009), Domingues et al. (2008), Palmer et al.
latitude CO2 enriched waters are drawn down (2007) and Smith and Murphy (2007). Uncertainties
towards the deep ocean. are in grey, as has been published in the different
aforementioned studies. (b) Estimates of the moving
average of the heat content in ZJ over 5 years for the
THE TEMPERATURE OF THE OCEAN IS 700 to 2000m layer (Levitus 2012) and for the deep
RISING ocean (from 2000 to 6000m) during the 1992 to 2005
period (Purkey and Johnson, 2010). Figure adapted
from Rhein et al., 2013.
Recent warming caused by the emission of
greenhouse gases related to human activity does reached the deep layers of the ocean (Figure 1;
not only affect the lower layers of the atmosphere Rhein et al., 2013; Levitus et al., 2012; Ishii and
and the surface of the continents. Measurements Kimoto, 2009; Domingues et al. 2008; Palmer et
of sea temperature have been made during the al., 2007; and Smith and Murphy, 2007).
past five to six decades over the 1000 to 2000 first
meters of the ocean from ships, oceanographic The temperature of the 0-300m layer has
buoys, moorings and more recently, autonomous increased by about 0.3°C since 1950. This value is
profiling floats (the Argo project) that enable approximately half than the temperature increase
vertical sampling of the top 2000 m of the water at the surface of the ocean. Furthermore, although
column. They have allowed oceanographers to the average temperature of the ocean has
observe a significant increase in the temperature increased less than that of the atmosphere, the
of the ocean over the studied period. On first ocean represents the greatest sink and reservoir
hand, this recent warming of the ocean affects the of excess heat introduced into the climate system
surface layers (the first 300 to 500 meters). However by human activities. This is due to its mass as
at high latitudes, the temperature increase has well as its high thermal capacity. Indeed, over

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90% of the excess heat due to anthropogenic Oscillation (ENSO), the recently observed slow-
warming accumulated in the climate system down in atmospheric warming (Durack et al.,
during the past 50 years has been absorbed by 2014). This excess heat in the ocean is caused by
the ocean (15 to 20 times higher than observed direct warming from solar energy (e.g., this is the
in the lower atmosphere and on land; Figure 2). case in the Arctic due to an intensified reduction
This represents an excess energy storage by the in the area of sea ice during summer) as well
ocean that is greater than 200 zeta-joules (2 • J as thermal exchange enhanced by increasing
1023; 1ZJ = 1021Joules) since the 1970s. infrared radiation due to rising concentrations
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The
Recent results also show that the deep ocean continuing or even increasing accumulation of
has actually accumulated a larger amount of heat in the deep layers explains that the ocean
heat than had been estimated so far, which may heat content kept rising during the last ten years,
explain, simultaneously with the impact of natural despite near-constant average surface ocean
climate variability such as the El Nino Southern temperature (Balmaseda et al. 2013). Moreover,
this climatic hiatus has been recently explained
300 by an increase of the ocean heat content at
Upper ocean
Deep ocean depth (Drijfhout et al., 2014). The random climate
Ice variability from one year to another is not surprising
250 Land
Atmosphere given the high nonlinearity and complexity of the
Uncertainty Earth climate system. Temporary stagnations of
200
global warming can be essentially related to
ocean dynamics.
150
Ocean temperature rises induce side effects that
Energy (ZJ)

could be of consequence, if not catastrophic,

100
but that are yet still poorly understood. Amongst
these effects, there is its contribution to the rise of
50 average sea level, currently estimated to be over
1mm/year. (e.g., Cazenave et al., 2014).
0
The oceans and seas produce another direct
effect on climate change: it is likely that rising
-50 temperatures are progressively leading to an
intensification of the global water cycle (Held and
-100 Soden, 2006; Allan et al., 2010; Smith et al., 2010;
1980 1990 2000 2010 Cubash et al., 2013; Rhein et al., 2013).

Fig.2— Energy accumulation curve in ZJ with refe- Water vapor being a greenhouse gas, it has a role
rence to the year 1971 and calculated between 1971 in accelerating global warming, and consequently
and 2010 for the different components of the global water evaporation. Changes in the water cycle
climate system. The sea temperature rise (expressed can be observed using the variations in salinity as
here as a change in heat content) is significant. The a proxy. An assemblage of recent data shows that
surface layers (light blue, 0 to 700m deep) contribute surface salinity has changed over the past five
predominantly, while the deep ocean (dark blue; water decades, with an increasing contrast between
layers below 700m) is also a significant contributor. The the North Atlantic and the North Pacific basins
importance of the role of the melting of continental (Durack and Wijffels, 2010; Hosoda et al., 2009;
ice (light grey), the continental areas (orange) and the Rhein et al., 2013).
atmosphere (purple) is much smaller. The broken line
represents the uncertainty of estimates. Figure adapted Salinity measurements at different depths also
from Rhein et al., 2014. reveal changes (Durack and Wijffels, 2010; Rhein

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et al., 2013). The most notable observation has Although most of these aspects have been
been a systematic increase of the constrast in documented, it is noteworthy to mention that
the salinity between the subtropical gyres, that the warming of the oceans can also impact the
are saltier, and high latitude regions, particularly extent of their oxygenation: the solubility of oxygen
the Southern Ocean. At a global scale, these decreases with increasing water temperature: the
contrasts point to a net transfer of fresh water warmer the water, the lower the dissolved oxygen
from the tropics towards the poles, thus implying content. The direct consequences involves losses
an intensification of the water cycle. In the North of marine life anad its biodiversityand restrictions
Atlantic, a quantitative assessment of the thermal in the habitats (e.g. Keeling et al. 2010).
energy storage and freshwater flux over the past
50 years confirms that global warming is increasing Compared to the atmosphere, the ocean presents
the water content of the atmosphere, thus leading two characteristics that confer it an essential role
to the intensification of the water cycle (Durack in the climate system:
et al. 2012). 1. Its thermal capacity is more than 1000 fold
that of the atmosphere and allows the ocean
The sea temperature rise also modifies its dynamics to store most of the solar radiation flux and
as well as the transfers of heat and salt, thus locally surplus energy generated by human activities.
disrupting the surface exchanges of energy with 2. Its dynamics are much slower than in the
the atmosphere. Thermohaline circulation can atmosphere, with a very strong thermal
also be disturbed and may affect the climate inertia; at time scales that are compatible
at a global scale by significantly reducing heat with climate variability, the ocean therefore
transfer towards the Polar Regions and to the deep keeps a long-term memory of the disturbances
ocean. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental (or anomalies) that have affected it.
Panel on Climate Change), it is very likely that the
thermohaline circulation will slow down during However, the world ocean is still poorly known due to
the 21st century, although it should be insufficient its great size and to the inherent technical difficulties
to induce a cooling of the North Atlantic region. encountered in oceanographic observation (e.g.
Increasing ocean temperature also has a direct the difficulty of high precision measurements at
impact on the melting of the base of the platforms pressures exceeding 500 atmospheres; the need
of the continental glaciers surrounding Greenland to collect in situ measurements everywhere in the
and Antarctica, the two major continental water ocean aboard research vessels that are operated
reservoirs (Jackson et al., 2014; Schmidko et al., at great costs). In addition, ocean dynamics can
2014; Rignot et al., 2014). Hence, although it was be very turbulent and subsequent interactions with
known that global warming is enhancing glacial the atmosphere, extremely complex. To unveil
melt, it is now proven that the heating of the these unknowns and uncertainties will be an
oceans is contributing primarily to the melting essential step to predict the future evolution of the
of ice shelves that extend the Antarctic ice cap climate in a more reliable manner. Observations
over the ocean. For example, considering that and measurements are irreplaceable sources of
Antarctica holds about 60% of the world’s fresh knowledge. It is therefore necessary to improve the
water reserves, recent studies show that the melt of nature and quantity of ocean observations with
the base of the Antarctic ice caps has accounted the aim to establish a long-lasting, internationally
for 55% of the total loss of their mass between coordinated, large-scale ocean-observation
2003 and 2008, representing a significantly large system.
volume of water (Rignot et al., 2014).

Ocean warming affects the biogeochemical

mass-balance of the ocean and its biosphere1.

1 In particular refer to « The ocean carbon pump » and « the

ocean acidification and de-oxygenation » scientific sheets

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The Ocean:
Laurent Bopp*,
Chris Bowler*,
Lionel Guidi,

a Carbon
Éric Karsenti,
Colomban de Vargas

Pump *lead authors

The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is exchanging large
amounts of CO2 with the atmosphere every year. In the past decades, the ocean has slowed
down the rate of climate change by absorbing about 30% of human emissions. While this
absorption of anthropogenic CO2 is today the result of physical-chemical processes, marine
biology is playing an important role in the ocean carbon cycle by sequestering carbon in
the deep ocean. Changes in any of these physical, chemical and biological processes
may result in climate feedbacks that either increase or decrease the rate of climate
change, although knowledge of such interconnections is today still limited. The feedbacks
between climate, the ocean, and its ecosystems require a better understanding in order to
predict the co-evolution of atmospheric CO2 and climate change more reliably as well as
to understand the characteristics of a future ocean.

A MAJOR ROLE FOR THE OCEAN IN of atmospheric CO2 by absorbing a significant

fraction of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere by
THE EVOLUTION OF ATMOSPHERIC human activities, deforestation and burning of
CO2 fossil fuels. During the past decade (2004-2013),
the global ocean has absorbed 2.6 billion tonnes
The carbon cycle involves a wide range of physico- of carbon per year, representing nearly 30% of
chemical and biological processes contributing anthropogenic emissions over this period. Since
to a series of interconnected carbon reservoirs 1870, the amount of carbon absorbed by the
in the Earth System. A schematic diagram of ocean has reached 150 billion tonnes – also
the global carbon cycle highlights the relative representing 30% of anthropogenic emissions
importance of each of these processes is shown in over this period. By absorbing this greenhouse
Figure 1. The global cycle was roughly balanced gas, the ocean thus contributes to slowing down
before the industrial era. During the past 200 years, human-induced climate change.
atmospheric CO2 has increased from under 0.03%
to over 0.04%, as a result of fossil fuel burning,
A NATURAL OCEAN CARBON
cement production, deforestation and other
changes in land use. It is considered that such CYCLE INVOLVING PHYSICO-
a rapid change is at least ten times faster than
CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL
any other that has happened during the past 65
million years (Portner et al., 2014; Rhein et al., 2014). PROCESSES

Since the beginning of the industrial era, the

Anthropogenic carbon absorbed by the ocean
ocean has played a key role in the evolution
feeds a considerable natural carbon reservoir.

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 ocean-climate.org

The ocean contains about 40,000 billion tonnes the deep the atmospheric carbon fixed by
of carbon (40,000PgC), mainly in the form of photosynthetic organisms undergoes a series of
inorganic carbon dissolved in seawater. This transformations: phytoplankton can be directly
amount represents 50 times the size of the consumed by zooplankton, or indirectly by
atmospheric reservoir. Each year, the ocean heterotrophic bacteria, which will in turn be
naturally exchanges with the atmosphere almost eaten by larger organisms. During this process,
a hundred billion tonnes of carbon as CO2. a fraction of the total carbon biomass (average
value of 10%) ends up as detrital matter, fecal
In the ocean, this carbon, which prevails pellets or dead cells which compose the stock
essentially in the form of bicarbonate ions (HCO3- of marine particles. In turn, a fraction of these
), is not evenly distributed, as dissolved carbon particles (in suspension or sinking) also undergoes
concentrations are higher at depth than at the a series of transformations before reaching the
surface. The spatial distribution of carbon with base of the mesopelagic layer (typically 1000m
depth controls atmospheric CO2 levels, as only depth), thus sequestering atmospheric CO2 for
the inorganic carbon from the sea surface is in thousands of years. It is generally believed that
contact with the atmosphere and contributes to 0.1 to 1% of the carbon-containing material
the exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere at the surface finally reaches the base of the
and the ocean. This vertical gradient of carbon mesopelagic zone, then the sediment where it
can be explained by both physico-chemical and can turn into fossil fuel deposits. The remaining
biological processes. organic matter is remineralized through
respiration, and CO2 returns to the atmosphere.
• Biological Processes Each year, nearly 10 billion tonnes of carbon
Phytoplankton living in the sunlit layer of the ocean are exported from the surface layer and are
use light energy to perform photosynthesis. They responsible for most of the carbon vertical
take up nutrients as well as dissolved inorganic gradient. All of these processes that contribute
carbon to produce organic matter. The production to the governing role of marine biology on the
of these carbon-based materials supported by carbon cycle in the ocean are part of the so
solar energy is called primary production. It called biological carbon pump (Figure).
represents the base of the trophic chains from
which other non- photosynthetic organisms can Although only a small fraction (~ 0.2PgCyr-1) of
feed on. Photosynthetic activity is therefore an the carbon exported by biological processes
efficient mechanism for extracting CO2 from from the surface reaches the sea floor, the fact
the atmosphere and transferring the carbon that it can be stored in sediments for millennia
into living organisms. Surprisingly,
the organisms that contribute
atmospheric CO2
to primary production represent atmospheric
CO2 CO2
only a small organic carbon pool
(~3PgC), but they are capable carbon dissolved
at the surface
of generating large amounts of deep
convection
dissolved organic carbon (DOC: zone phytoplankton
euphotic
upwelling
~700PgC) to sustain the food chains zooplankton upwelling
carbon
dissolved in
100m
because their turnover is very rapid, sinking
deep waters
organic
from a few days to several weeks. detritus

A fraction of produced organic 400m remineralisation dissolved carbon

of organic
material exits the surface layer as detritus

sinking particles, thus transferring

the surface carbon towards the
deep layers of the ocean (Figure). Natural carbon cycle and representation of biological and physical
Before being sequestered to pumps (Bopp et al. 2002).

13
 ocean-climate.org

and longer (Denman et al., 2007; Ciais et al., explain the anthropogenic carbon sink observed
2014) means that this biological pump is the today. Indeed, excess CO2 in the atmosphere
most important biological mechanism in the will lead to a net carbon flux to the ocean
Earth System allowing CO2 to be removed from due to the disproportion induced between
the carbon cycle for very long periods of time. atmospheric and oceanic CO2 concentrations.
Subsequently, once the anthropogenic CO2
Over geological time-scales, the biological car- enters surface waters, it is transported by ocean
bon pump has formed oil deposits that today currents and progressively mixed with the sub-
fuel our economy. In addition, biochemical se- surface waters.
dimentary rocks such as limestone are derived
principally from calcifying corals, molluscs, and
IS THE OCEANIC CARBON SINK
foraminifera, while the considerable reserves of
deep sea methane hydrates (or clathrates) are GOING TO SATURATE?
similarly the result of hundreds of millions of years
of activity of methanogenic microbial consortia. To date, and since the beginning of the indus-
Considering that, each day, large amounts of trial era, the ocean has continuously absorbed
CO2 that have been trapped for millions of years a relatively constant part of the amount of CO2
are discharged into the atmosphere (the order emitted by human activities. However, many stu-
of magnitude is now probably about a million dies based on theoretical considerations, in situ
years of trapped carbon burned by humankind observations, controlled laboratory experiments,
each year), it is easier to understand the rapi- or supported by models, suggest that several
dity at which present climate change is taking processes may lessen or slow-down this natural
place. Consequently, there is a dramatic diffe- carbon sink.
rence between the rate of CO2 sequestration by
photosynthesis and rate of CO2 discharge into The first series of processes is related to the che-
the atmosphere. The anthropogenic emissions mistry of carbonates (exchanges between CO2,
will therefore need to be redistributed by the and CO32-) and can eventually lead to a satu-
global carbon cycle until a new steady state ration of the oceanic carbon sink. Indeed, the
is reached. dissolution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide de-
creases the ocean carbonate ion content and
therefore the buffer effect of the ocean, which
• Physico-Chemical Processes in turn increases the proportion of CO2 in com-
A second series of processes, comprising parison to the other forms of dissolved inorganic
physico-chemical activities, also contributes to carbon species and thus may reduce the effi-
the increasing carbon distribution with depth. ciency of the natural carbon sink. This phenome-
The cooling of surface waters at high latitudes non occurs in parallel with the process of ocean
favours their ability to dissolve atmospheric CO2 acidification, and could potentially have serious
(mainly by increasing the solubility of the gas) impacts on life in the ocean.
as well as increasing their density. These heavy
surface waters plunge down to great depths, The second series of processes is related to the
in this way exporting the CO2 and preventing it feedback between climate and the carbon cy-
from further contact with the atmosphere. This cle. This concerns the feedback between anthro-
process that contributes to the vertical gradient pogenic climate change and different carbon
of ocean carbon is known as the physical pump absorption phenomena. As mentioned earlier,
or solubility pump (Figure). climate change leads to modifications in water
temperature, ocean currents, and production of
Despite the fact that biological processes organic matter in the ocean. If these changes
are responsible for the majority of the vertical should boost the carbon sink, they would curb cli-
gradient of natural carbon in the ocean, the mate change and induce a negative feedback.
physico-chemical processes can nevertheless On the contrary, in the event of a weakening of

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 ocean-climate.org

the carbon sink, the changes would lead to a rial by phytoplankton is going to be affected by
positive feedback that would in turn accelerate changes in environmental conditions of surface
the phenomenon. water: for example rising water temperature, mel-
ting of sea ice and changes in dissolved nutrient
Once more, different processes are involved. availability (nitrates, phosphates).
For example, the increase in the temperature
of the ocean weakens the ocean carbon sink. Modelling approaches predict an overall reduc-
An increase by 2 or 3°C in sea surface tempe- tion in global mean NPP as a result of climate
rature decreases the solubility of CO2 by a few change, albeit with significant latitudinal varia-
percent, and thus the capacity of the ocean to tions. One of the factors leading to this reduction
absorb carbon dioxide. Another effect could is the predicted expansion of oligotrophic gyres
accentuate this saturation of the carbon sink: in as nutrient availability decreases with the inten-
response to rising temperatures, climate models sification of stratification. Predictions indicate
predict an increase in vertical stratification of increasing NPP at high latitudes (because the
the ocean. In other words, vertical mixing, which amount of available sunlight should increase as
tends to homogenize the surface waters with the the amount of water covered by ice decreases).
deep, would diminish and the resulting stratifi- However this would be counterbalanced by a
cation would reduce the present penetration of decrease of NPP in temperate and tropical lati-
anthropogenic CO2 towards the ocean depths. tudes (because of reduced nutrient supply). The
types of plankton species that would dominate
The future of the biological pump is difficult to the ecosystem in altered conditions should also
predict. Even a qualitative estimate of the effect be estimated, as the composition of plankton can
of changes in marine ecosystems on the ocean significantly affect the intensity of CO2 absorption.
carbon sink remains highly speculative. More The role of certain phytoplankton populations,
specifically, because the activity of the biolo- such as diatoms, can be particularly significant.
gical pump is likely to be strongly regulated by They are characterised by relatively large cell
net primary production (NPP), it is important to sizes (tens to hundreds of micrometers), which
consider the effects of climate change on pho- allows them to sink rapidly. They are therefore
tosynthetic activity. On land, as the CO2 supply is responsible for the export of a large fraction of
generally limiting for photosynthesis, the increase carbon to the deep ocean. Nonetheless, diatoms
in anthropogenic CO2 tends to stimulate plant cannot thrive in nutrient depleted conditions. In
growth (known as the carbon dioxide fertiliza- this case they could be replaced by other types
tion effect). This does not appear to be the case of smaller (<10 microns) phytoplankton cells that
in marine systems because Dissolved Inorganic are better adapted to poor nutrient conditions.
Carbon (DIC) is not limiting for carbon fixation by Although such cells are abundant in the ocean,
photosynthesis. However, photosynthesis is also due to their small size they are principally recy-
strongly affected by temperature, and the up- cled within the surface layer, and thus have a
per ocean has significantly warmed during the very minor role in carbon export to the deep.
last 150 years. In addition to temperature, light, A decrease in the diatom/small cell community
inorganic nutrients, and the density-dependent ratio could thus greatly disrupt the intensity of the
stability of the surface mixed layer (González- biological pump, especially in the polar regions.
Taboada and Anadón, 2012; Portner et al., 2014)
are all likely to affect photosynthetic activity, as Despite these multiple levels of uncertainty - the
are oxygen, pH, and salinity. Environmental va- most important being the biological response
riability and the displacement of organisms by to climate change - the different predictions
ocean currents cause variability in phytoplankton produced by numerical models that couple
productivity, competitiveness, and natural selec- the climate system and the carbon cycle all
tion, which are also likely to result in changes in point to a declining ocean carbon sink due to
carbon sequestration.It is therefore crucial to global warming. Even though this ocean sink is
estimate how the production of organic mate- unlikely to become a source there is no doubt

15
 ocean-climate.org

that a decrease will affect the evolution of the in a temperature drop due to the enhanced cloud
CO2 in the atmosphere and, ultimately, climate cover. This is a self-regulating negative feedback
change itself. By 2100, the feedback between loop. It is an example of regulation that allowed
the climate and the carbon cycle (including Lovelock to build the Gaia theory, stipulating that
the response of the terrestrial biosphere to several self-regulatory processes, including the sul-
climate change) could even be responsible for phur cycle, allow the planet Earth to be conside-
an additional increase in atmospheric CO2 of red as a living organism.
several tens of ppm!
More than 20 years later, research projects have
The future evolution of the oceanic carbon sink, revealed the complexity of the sulphur cycle in
as predicted by models coupling the climate the ocean, but have neither confirmed nor re-
and carbon cycle at a global scale, still remains futed this hypothesis. It is not yet known how, why
very uncertain. The last IPCC report points to and what species of phytoplankton can release
a number of poorly constrained processes the precursory sulphur compounds for the forma-
that explain the wide range of uncertainties tion of DMS. Knowledge is therefore still lacking
associated with the predictions: these primarily to determine whether anthropogenic climate
include biotic responses to climate change change will result in a decrease or an increase in
and the changes in the biological pump (the DMS emissions from the ocean.
complexity of biological processes being
extremely difficult to include in climate models).
MANIPULATION OF THE CARBON
Other processes related to the representation
of small-scale features (eddies) and to the PUMP TO OFFSET CO2-INDUCED
consideration of particularly complex coastal
CLIMATE CHANGE
areas are also mentioned in this report.

Humankind has disrupted the steady state

A ROLE IN OTHER balance of the global carbon cycle and has
brutally contributed to the modification of
BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES the composition of Earth’s atmosphere, just as
bacteria, protists and the biosphere in general
Besides its role in both the carbon cycle and the
have played a role in the shaping of the Earth’s
evolution of atmospheric CO2, it must be empha-
atmosphere in the past. As other events have
sized that the ocean also plays a key role in other
marked the history of our planet in the past, these
major biogeochemical cycles, including nitrogen,
present changes provoked by human activities
phosphorus and sulphur that are liable to affect
will significantly affect the Earth System. Our
the biogeochemical balance of our planet.
duty as inhabitants of the planet Earth is now to
formulate predictions and to react in the best
In the mid-1980s, several scientists including James
possible way to avoid disaster.
Lovelock suggested that ocean ecosystems, es-
pecially phytoplankton, are able to regulate the
Studies have suggested that an artificial
world climate by releasing the sulphurous gas di-
enhancement of the ocean carbon pump might
methyl sulphide or DMS. Once in the atmosphere,
improve carbon sequestration in the ocean,
this gas favours the formation of tiny sulphate par-
thus counterbalancing CO2-induced climate
ticles which play a role as condensation nuclei for
change. For example, primary productivity of
clouds, thus contributing to an increase in cloud
phytoplankton could be stimulated by adding
cover. This hypothesis, which is still called the CLAW
nutrients such as iron to surface waters where
hypothesis (based on the first letter of the surname
they are limiting. There is currently no consensus
of each of the authors; Charlson et al., 1987), states
on the efficiency of such methods, which are
that the ocean ecosystem reacts to an increase
limited to a few field experiments. Moreover,
in temperature by increasing productivity. This in
alternative geoengineering approaches focusing
turn leads to increased emissions of DMS, resulting

16
 ocean-climate.org

on solar radiation management are not capable day. This can only be done by preserving the
of resolving the issue of ocean acidification. oceans, their marine life and their planktonic
ecosystems. The carbon balance of the
To conclude, it remains essential to protect different parts of the carbon cycle also needs to
the ocean carbon pump that contributes to be better characterised by carrying out further
more than half of the CO2 sequestered each fundamental research in this field.

REFERENCES

• BOPP L., LEGENDRE L. et MONFRAY P., 2002 – La pompe à carbone va-t-elle se gripper. La Recherche, 355,
48-50.
• CHARLSON R. J., LOVELOCK J. E., ANDREAE M. O. and WARREN S. G., 1987 – Oceanic Phytoplankton,
Atmospheric Sulphur, Cloud Albedo and Climate. Nature, 326, 655-661.
• CIAIS P., SABINE C., BALA G., BOPP L., BROVKIN V., CANADELL J., CHHABRA A., DEFRIES R., GALLOWAY J.,
HEIMANN M., JONES C., LE QUÉRÉ C., MYNENI R. B., PIAO S. and THORNTON P., 2013 – Carbon and Other
Biogeochemical Cycles. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group
I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University
Press.
• DENMAN K. L., BRASSEUR G., CHIDTHAISONG A., CIAIS P., COX P. M., DICKINSON R. E., HAUGLUSTAINE D., HEINZE
C., HOLLAND E., JACOB D., LOHMANN U., RAMACHANDRAN S., DA SILVA DIAS P. L., WOFSY S. C. and ZHANG X.,
2007 – Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. In Climate Change 2007: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
• GONZÁLEZ-TABOADA F. and ANADÓN R., 2012 – Patterns of Change in Sea Surface Temperature in the North
Atlantic During the Last Three Decades : Beyond Mean Trends. Climatic Change, 115, 419-431.
• LE QUÉRÉ C. et al., 2014 – Global Carbon Budget. Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., 7, 521-610.
• PÖRTNER H.-O., D. KARL M., BOYD P. W., CHEUNG W. W. L., LLUCH-COTA S. E., NOJIRI Y., SCHMIDT D. N. and
ZAVIALOV P.O., 2014 – Ocean Systems. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.
Part A : Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
• RHEIN M., RINTOUL S. R., AOKI S., CAMPOS E., CHAMBERS D., FEELY R. A., GULEV S., JOHNSON G. C., JOSEY S. A.,
KOSTIANOY A., MAURITZEN C., ROEMMICH D., TALLEY L. D. and WANG F., 2013 – Observations : Ocean. In Climate
Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.

17
 ocean-climate.org

Sea Benoit Meyssignac,

Gilles Reverdin

Level Rise
Measurements from tide gauges and satellites have shown that the sea is rising globally at
an average rate of about 1.7mm per year since the beginning of the 20th century, a direct
consequence of human-driven global warming, although there is strong regional variability. This
increase is mainly due to two factors: the increase in ocean temperature resulting in expansion
of sea water, and the melting of continental ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps with an input of
fresh water into the ocean. Despite uncertainties, proposed scenarios indicate that sea levels
will continue to rise at a faster pace than during the 20th century, reaching an increase of more
than 25cm (best case) and 82cm (worst case but likely underestimated) by 2100.

MAREGRAPHIC MEASUREMENTS since the beginning of the twentieth century,

the sea has globally been rising at an average
DURING THE 20TH CENTURY
speed of about 1.7mm per year (Figure1, left).

Direct observation of changes in sea level

began with the industrial era and the systematic THE OBSERVATION OF CHANGES IN
installation of tide gauges in a few harbours
across northern Europe, then progressively in
SEA LEVEL FROM SPACE
other areas of the world. These instruments,
Since the early 1990s, routine measurements
originally developed to measure the tides,
of the rising sea levels have been made from
provide us with precious data on the evolution of
sea level during the twentieth century. Although space, thanks to high-precision altimetry
few in numbers and poorly distributed over the satellites like Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, ERS-
globe, the historical tidal series indicates that 1/2, Envisat and recently Saral/Alika and Cryosat
(Ablain et al., 2014). Satellite observations have
40
100
20th century Satellite altimetry era a major advantage in comparison with the tide
30
gauge: they provide a quasi-global observation
Sea level (mm)

Sea level (mm)

20
50
10 of the entire ocean, with a revisit time of a few
0
0
-10
days. Figure 1 (right) illustrates the evolution of
-50 -20 the sea level measured by altimetry satellites
-100
-30
between 1993 and 2013. During this period, the
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1995 2000 2005 2010
rise in sea level was almost linear at a speed of
Fig.1— Evolution of the global average sea le- 3.2±0.4mm/year (Cazenave et al., 2014). This
vel, estimated from the reconstruction by Church increase is the double of that recorded by tide
and White (2011) over the twentieth century (left) gauges during the twentieth century, suggesting
and from satellite altimetry over the 1993-2012 pe- an acceleration of sea level rise since the early
riod (source: AVISO). The uncertainty associated with 1990s. Through its complete coverage of the
each of the curves is in grey. The annual and semi global ocean, satellite altimetry also revealed
annual cycles have been removed. Note the verti- that the rise in sea level is not uniform. It presents
cal scale difference between the two curves. From a strong regional variability (see Fig.2) from
Cazenave & The Cozannet (2014). regions such as Western Tropical Pacific where

18
 ocean-climate.org

the sea level is rising 3 times faster than the altimetry and recently space gravimetry) have
global average, to other regions such as the evidenced glacier retreat in almost all mountain
western United States coastline, where the sea ranges. This is partly explained by their delayed
level is dropping at a rate of 1 to 2mm/year. response to natural global warming following
the Little Ice Age. However, the acceleration of
glacier mass loss observed since the mid-1980s
THE CAUSES OF THE CURRENT RISE has been attributed to the recent anthropogenic
IN THE GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL warming (Marzeion et al., 2014). During the
altimeter period between 1993 and 2010, the
On a global average, the current rise in sea glaciers are estimated to have contributed to a
level is a direct consequence of anthropogenic 0.9mm/year sea level rise (Church et al., 2013).
global warming (Church et al., 2013). It has two
main causes: • Mass loss of the polar ice caps
The mass loss of the polar ice caps can be
1. Increasing ocean temperatures and observed and estimated primarily with three
associated thermal expansion (when the techniques: Radar or laser altimetry (which
temperature increases, the sea water measure changes in the elevation of ice sheets
expands and sea level rises) since 1991), Spatial gravimetry (which provides
2. The melting of continental ice, glaciers and direct mass changes of the ice cap with
ice caps (freshwater flows to the sea due time) and the flux method (calculation of the
to melting continental ice lead to rising sea difference between climate model estimates of
level). In addition to these processes, a small surface snow accumulation and the flow of ice
contribution also results from liquid water reaching the ocean at the grounding line of the
exchanges with the land (0.38mm/year over ice caps) (Rignot et al., 2014). An assessment
the 1993-2010 period). of these observations over the past 20 years
(Shepherd et al., 2012) indicates a very strong
• Thermal expansion mass loss in the coastal regions of Greenland
Thanks to sea temperature measurements and West Antarctica. Together, these losses
collected from sensors dropped overboard from represent an increase in sea level of 0.6mm/
the stern of merchant ships during the past five year over the 1993-2010 period (Church et al.,
decades and from the automatic floats from 2013).
the international Argo project during the past
ten years, oceanographers have observed
that the ocean is getting warmer. Sea water Sea level trends from satellite altimetry
expands with increasing temperature, thus (1992/10 – 2013/08, LEGOS/CLS)
0° 30° 60° 90° 120° 150° 180° -150° -120° -90° -60° -30°
leading to a rise in sea level. It is estimated that 90° 90°

during the altimeter period (i.e. since 1993 and 60° 60°
the beginning of satellite observations), this
30° 30°
contribution explains 30% of the rise in global
sea level (1.1±0.3mm/year between 1993 and 0° 0°

2010; Church et al., 2013). -30° -30°

-60° -60°

• Melting glaciers -90° -90°

Glaciers represent the whole of the continental 0° 30° 60° 90° 120° 150° 180° -150° -120° -90° -60° -30°

ice masses, except for the two vast Greenland -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

and Antarctic ice caps. There are more than

200,000 glaciers, covering about 730,000 km² Fig.2— Global map of the geographical distribu-
of emerged lands. Since the end of the Little tion of rates of sea level change (1993-2013) accor-
Ice Age around 1850, observations (from in ding to altimeter measurements from Topex/Poseidon,
situ measurements of glacier mass balance, Jason-1/2, ERS-1/2 and Envisat (source: LEGOS).

19
 ocean-climate.org

REASONS FOR THE REGIONAL (a) (b)

VARIABILITY OF SEA LEVEL 60°N 60°N

30°N 30°N

0°N 0°N
At a regional scale, the heat accumulation in
30°S 30°S
the ocean and its associated thermal expansion 60°S 60°S
90°E 180°E 90°W 0°
generate most of the variability in sea level. The (c)
90°E 180°E 90°W 0°
(d)
heat in the ocean is redistributed irregularly by 60°N 60°N

30°N 30°N
ocean circulation (Stammer et al., 2013) in response 0°N 0°N

to atmospheric forcing (in angular momentum, 30°S 30°S

heat and freshwater). Depending on the region, 60°S

90°E 180°E 90°W 0°
60°S
90°E 180°E 90°W 0°
different processes are at work. For example in the -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
(m)

western tropical Pacific, the intensification of trade

Fig.3— Overall average (21 CMIP5 models) of the
winds observed for twenty years have caused
change in relative sea level for RCP2.6 scenarios (a),
a deepening of the thermocline in the western
4.5 (b), 6.0 (c) and 8.5 (d). The impact of thermal ex-
part of the basin, inducing the formation of a
pansion of the oceans, the mass of continental ice,
thicker layer of warm surface water and therefore
continental stocks of liquid water and post-glacial re-
a marked rise in sea level (Timmermann et al.
bound have been taken into account (adapted from
2010; Stammer et al., 2013.).
Church et al., 2013).

SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE FUTURE

In response to past and future emissions of they all forecast an increase in sea temperature
greenhouse gases, global warming will continue and the melting of land ice. The extent of the
in the future. Consequently, the increase in sea level rise would vary between 25cm (best
sea level will also continue, largely due to the case scenarios RCP2.6) and 82cm (worst-case
melting of land ice and thermal expansion of scenarios RCP8.5). In all cases, a simulation of
the oceans. The challenge is to estimate the the rise of the level of the sea between now and
magnitude of this increase, with the regional 2100 indicates that it will be faster than during
disparities, and associated uncertainties. The the twentieth century. By 2100, the rate of sea
uncertainties derive from two major sources: level rise would reach 8-16mm/year for the
firstly, the lack of understanding of certain RCP 8.5, which is similar to that during the last
climatic processes that affect changes in sea deglaciation. Moreover, in the same way that
level (e.g. this is the case for the ice flowing from present changes in the current sea level are
the polar ice caps to the ocean) and secondly, not uniform, it is expected that changes in sea
the uncertainty concerning future gas emission level at the end of the XXIst century will display
scenarios for the anthropogenic greenhouse significant regional differences (Figure 3, Yin et
effect. Indeed, different scenarios involving al., 2010). For example, considering the RCP8.5
emissions of greenhouse gases (expressed in scenario, the sea level could drop slightly in
terms of radiative forcing: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 certain areas of the Arctic, while it could increase
and RCP8.5, IPCC 2013) and the response of the by more than 70cm along the east coast of the
climate system (expressed as the increase in United States. It is therefore essential to take
the global temperature of the Earth) can occur these differences into account and to model
for the coming decades (IPCC 2013). Each them correctly in order to anticipate future rises
scenario indicates a rise in sea level between in sea level in coastal areas. At the moment, this
1986 and 2000 and between 2080 and 2100, as is a very active research topic.

20
 ocean-climate.org

REFERENCES

• ABLAIN M. et al., 2014 – Improved Sea Level Record over the Satellite Altimetry Era (1993-2010).
From The Climate Change Initiative Project. In revision, Ocean Sciences.
• CAZENAVE A. and LE COZANNET G., 2014 – Sea Level Rise and Coastal Impacts. Earth’s Future, vol.
2, issue 2.
• CAZENAVE A., DIENG H., MEYSSIGNAC B., VON SCHUCKMANN K., DECHARME B. and BERTHIER E.,
2014 – The Rate of Sea Level Rise. Nature Climate Change, vol. 4.
• CHURCH J. A. and WHITE N. J., 2011 – Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century.
Surveys in Geophysics, 32 (4-5), 585-602.
• CHURCH J. A., CLARK P. U., CAZENAVE A., GREGORY J. M., JEVREJEVA S., LEVERMANN A., M.
MERRIFIELD A., MILNE G. A., NEREM R. S., NUNN P. D., PAYNE A. J., PFEFFER W. T., STAMMER D. and
UNNIKRISHNAN A. S., 2013 – Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
• IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013 – Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press.
• MARZEION B., COGLEY J. G., RICHTER K. and PARKES D., 2014 – Attribution of Global Glacier Mass
Loss to Anthropogenic and Natural Causes. Science, 345 (6199), 919 – 921.
• MEYSSIGNAC B., SALAS Y MELIA D., BECKER M., LLOVEL W. and CAZENAVE A., 2012 – Tropical Pacific
Spatial Trend Patterns in Observed Sea Level : Internal Variability and/or Anthropogenic Signature ?
Climate of the Past, 8 (2), 787-802.
• RIGNOT E., MOUGINOT J., MORLIGHEM M., SEROUSSI H. and SCHEUCHL B., 2014 – Widespread, Rapid
Grounding Line Retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers, West Antarctica, from
1992 To 2011. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41 (10), 3502 – 3509.
• SHEPHERD A. et al., 2012 – À Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance. Science, 338 (6111),
1183 – 1189.
• STAMMER D., CAZENAVE A., PONTE R. M. and TAMISIEA M. E., 2013 – Causes for Contemporary
Regional Sea Level Changes. Annual Review of Marine Science, vol. 5.
• TIMMERMANN A., MCGREGOR S. and JIN F.-F., 2010 – Wind Effects on Past and Future Regional Sea
Level Trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific. Journal of Climate, 23 (16).
• YIN J., GRIFFIES S. M. and STOUFFER R. J., 2010 – Spatial Variability of Sea Level Rise in Twenty-First
Century Projections. Journal of Climate, 23 (17), 4585-4607.

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Ocean
Jean-Pierre Gattuso,
Lina Hansson

Acidification
Each day, the oceans absorb about a quarter of the CO2 produced by human activities,
causing a chemical modification of seawater that results in ocean acidification. The disso-
lution of CO2 in seawater causes an increase in acidity (decrease in pH) and a decrease in
the availability of carbonate ions (CO32-) which are one of the building blocks required by
marine plants and animals to make their skeletons, shells and other calcareous structures.
Ocean acidity has increased by 30% in 250 years, and could triple by 2100. It threatens
species such as oysters and mussels, and will also have an impact on marine food chains.
Our understanding of the effects of ocean acidification on marine life is still only rudimentary.

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION to have our seas and oceans! For a long time
researchers thought that this absorption of CO2
Every day our oceans absorb about 1/4 of all would remain without major consequences for
man-made carbon dioxide (CO2). The result? the oceans and the organisms that live there.
Ocean acidification, with consequences for But they realized, around 15 years ago, that the
some marine plants, animals and ecosystems. dissolution of CO2 in seawater had been chan-
ging its chemistry: leading to a reduction in pH
(the measure of the acidity of a liquid) and in
WHAT IS OCEAN ACIDIFICATION? the concentration of carbonate ions (CO32-),
an important building block for the creation of
Most of us have already heard about climate
shells, skeletons and other calcareous structures
change and global warming, caused by the
in marine plants and animals.
greenhouse gas effect. We also know that human
activities are the culprit; in particular the carbon
dioxide emissions (CO2) produced by industry ACIDITY AND THE PH SCALE
and cars. But ocean acidification remains poorly
known. This is not very surprising, as the conse- You must be familiar with some acidic food
quences of this phenomenon were only recently such as lemon or vinegar. Well, CO2 is an acid
discovered. Yet, the cause is once again carbon gas. You can see it in sodas: the small bubbles
dioxide. In fact, ocean acidification is sometimes are, in fact, CO2 bubbles. After being absorbed
called “the other CO2 problem”. by the oceans, the CO2 dissolves in seawater,
leading to an acidification. This does not mean
that oceans are becoming acid, only that their
THE CHEMISTRY chemistry is progressively changing towards a
higher level of acidity. The acidity of a liquid is
All of the CO2 that we produce every day does
determined by its concentration of hydrogen
not remain in the atmosphere. Instead, around
ions H+ (protons). It is not practical to refer to the
one fourth is absorbed by our oceans. Without
concentration of protons, as the numbers are
the oceans, the proportion of atmospheric
very small. To simplify, we use the pH scale with
CO2 would be higher, leading to more severe
values ranging from 0 to 14. The lower the pH
global warming. We are therefore very lucky

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 ocean-climate.org

value, the higher the acidity of the liquid. A liquid tain threshold it becomes corrosive to limestone,
with a pH of 7 is called neutral, one with a pH the material used to form shells and skeletons.
lower than 7 is acid, and if the pH is higher than 7
it is said to be basic. The pH scale is a bit unusual, Researchers have performed laboratory studies
much as the Richter scale used to measure the on the process of building these calcareous
magnitude of earthquakes. A liquid with a pH of structures, in organisms exposed to conditions
6 is 10 times more acidic than a liquid with a pH of ocean acidification projected to occur in the
equal to 7, 100 times more acidic that a liquid future. Negative effects have been observed
with a pH of 8 and 1000 times more acidic than in some species, for instance in pteropods and
a liquid with a pH of 9. calcifying algae (see pictures 1 and 2). Other or-
ganisms might benefit from ocean acidification.
For example, for some plants more CO2 means
THE NAME increased photosynthesis.

Why is this phenomenon called “ocean acidi-

fication”, even if our oceans will never actually WHAT COULD BE THE IMPACT
become acidic (pH < 7)? Acidification is a pro-
OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ON
cess: the decrease in pH (increase in hydrogen
ions and acidity). The word “acidification” refers HUMANS?
to lowering pH from any starting point to any
end point on the pH scale. This terminology can Ocean acidification could have a direct
be compared to the one used for temperature: impact on organisms that we consume and
if the temperature of the air goes from -20 to -10, that form calcareous shells, such as clams and
it is still cold, but we call it “warming”. oysters. Negative effects on zooplankton, similar
to those observed in pteropods, could have
indirect consequences for humans. Everything
A LITTLE BIT OF HISTORY is connected in the ocean. Many organisms
depend on plankton or corals, for instance, as
Ocean acidity has increased by 30% in 250
their source of food and habitat. Ocean acidifi-
years, or since the beginning of the industrial
cation could therefore impact food chains and
revolution (a drop in pH from 8.2 to 8.1). Model
biodiversity in certain ecosystems. For example,
projections have shown that at the present rate
in the North Pacific and Arctic oceans the tiny
of CO2 emissions the acidity of ocean surface
pteropod is eaten by salmon. Salmon is an
water could triple by the end of this century.
essential food resource and salmon fisheries
The current speed of CO2 absorption is 100 times
employ many people.
higher than has occurred naturally over the last
300 million years.
WHAT CAN WE DO TO REDUCE
IMPACTS ON MARINE ORGANISMS OCEAN ACIDIFICATION?

The absorption of CO2 by seawater does not Seawater chemistry will remain altered for cen-
only increase the number of protons (hydrogen turies to come even if we stop all CO2 emissions
ions, H+) but it also lowers the number of certain right now. But it is still possible to slow down
molecules - the carbonate ions (CO32-) - used by ocean acidification and reduce its impacts.
numerous marine organisms to build their ske- More or less realistic geo-engineering tech-
letons and shells (corals, mussels, oysters etc.). niques have been proposed to limit ocean
Many of these calcifying plants and animals will acidification (for instance, discharging basic
thus face difficulties when building these struc- compounds into the oceans to counter acidi-
tures, and their skeletons and shells might even fication and increase the pH). However, the
dissolve. When seawater acidity reaches a cer- only proven, effective and risk-free solution is

23
 ocean-climate.org

to attack the root of the problem, namely the us can bring a contribution. We can reduce our
rise in CO2 emissions. Emissions can be reduced emissions by taking the train instead of the car,
at several levels, in particular through political for instance, or by limiting our use of electricity,
negotiations on the replacement of fossil fuels and we can talk about this problem with friends
with renewable sources of energy, carried out and family so that they learn how to reduce
at national and international levels. But each of their emissions too.

FOR MORE INFORMATION

• Laboratoire virtuel – http://i2i.stanford.edu/AcidOcean/AcidOcean_Fr.htm

• Animation sur l’acidification en français – www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqtxGZKItS8
• Animation projet BNP Paribas eFOCE – www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhgQ4unMVUM
• Animation « Hermie the hermit crab » – www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnqJMInH5yM Great Barrier
Reef Marine Park Authority
• Brochures en français – www.iaea.org/ocean-acidification/page.php?page=2198
• Résumé à l’attention des décideurs – www.igbp.net/publications/
summariesforpolicymakers/summariesforpolicymakers/
oceanacidificationsummaryforpolicymakers2013.5.30566fc6142425d6c9111f4.html

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 ocean-climate.org

The Ocean
Kirsten Isensee,
Lisa Levin,
Denise Breitburg,

is Losing its
Marilaure Gregoire,
Véronique Garçon,
Luis Valdés

Breath
The decrease in oxygen content (deoxygenation) of coastal and oceanic waters wor-
ldwide has worsened in recent decades. The main causes are climate change (warmer
water holds less oxygen and causes increased stratification, which reduces ventilation, i.e.
oxygen replenishment of the ocean interior and estuaries), and measurably higher nutrient
concentrations (eutrophication) due to intensified human activities affecting coastal areas.
Open-ocean deoxygenation, warming and ocean acidification are all driven by increased
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2); they constitute multiple stressors for marine ecosystems,
the socio-economic consequences of which are only just beginning to be appreciated.

The problem of decreasing oxygen content incorporated into planning by policymakers and
(deoxygenation) of coastal and oceanic stakeholders at the global level. Deoxygenation
waters worldwide has worsened in recent related to agriculture and human waste has
decades, primarily as a result of climate change, generally been managed on a local or regional
agricultural runoff and inputs of human waste. level, and low oxygen in deeper and upwelled
Deoxygenation of marine waters is predicted water, historically viewed as a largely natural
to further worsen with continued increases in phenomenon, is only now recognized as a
global temperatures and human population consequence of CO2-induced climate change.
size, with widespread consequences. Oxygen
is a fundamental requirement for all aerobic
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND
life, from the intertidal to the greatest depths
of the ocean. Oxygen is critical to the health
The ocean is a major actor in mediating global
of the planet, playing a direct role in the
oxygen cycling. Photosynthesis by marine algae
biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen,
produces oxygen, providing at least 50% of the
and many other key elements. The scale of
oxygen we breathe; at the same time the ocean
deoxygenation ranges from small coastal and
experiences a continuous loss of oxygen in its
estuarine regions to vast areas of the interior
water column and sediments through respiration
open ocean, termed oxygen minimum and
and equilibration of surface waters with the
limiting zones. The effects of local deoxygenation
atmosphere. This oxygen loss is exacerbated
can be translated to larger scales through the
by anthropogenic nutrient enrichment of
migration of organisms and the ecological,
coastal waters and by changes to the Earth’s
economic and societal consequences of lost
climate caused by increasing atmospheric
fisheries and aquaculture production in affected
carbon dioxide.
habitats. Ocean deoxygenation was discussed
in the latest IPCC report (2014), but the global
Hypoxic to anoxic and even sulfidic conditions
nature of this emerging threat to the ocean
have been reported for various aquatic systems,
has been not been fully acknowledged or

25
 ocean-climate.org

from lakes, estuaries and coastal areas to off-

shore regions of the ocean, where oxygen re-
supply does not compensate for its consumption
(IPCC 2014). A threshold value for hypoxia often
used for estuaries and shallow coastal waters is
60 μmol kg−1 (approximately 1.5 ml l-1 or 2 mg l-1)
(Gray et al. 2002), and areas with oxygen
concentrations below this level are commonly
referred to as ‘dead zones’. However, tolerance to
hypoxia varies greatly among marine taxa; some
Fig.1 — World hypoxic and eutrophic coastal areas
species require oxygen concentrations far higher
(Diaz, unpublished; updated 2015 Diaz & Rosenberg
than 60 μmol kg−1 for unimpaired recruitment
2008).
and growth, while others are adapted for life in
low oxygen conditions. In general, mobile fish In the open ocean, eastern boundary upwelling
and crustaceans tend to be the most sensitive systems (EBUSs) are characterized by high primary
(Vaquer-Sunyer & Duarte 2008). Larger animals and export production that, in combination with
usually become increasingly scarce as oxygen weak ventilation, cause natural oxygen depletion
concentration falls below 60 μmol kg−1 and are and the development of midwater oxygen
ultimately lost from the system. minimum zones (Fig. 2, OMZs). These are, defined
as areas where subthermocline dissolved oxygen
In the coastal ocean, the number of reported levels are < 20 μmol kg−1 (< 0.5 ml l-1), although
dead zones has increased exponentially many species experience limitation at higher
since the 1960s with more than 479 systems oxygen values (Gilly et al. 2013). For example,
now reporting oxygen concentrations below large billfish experience oxygen shortage at < 150
60 μmol kg−1 during some part of the year (Fig. 1, μmol kg-1 (3.5 ml l-1; Prince & Goodyear 2006).
e.g. Baltic, Black, Kattegat Sea, Gulf of Mexico, OMZs play critical roles in atmospheric chemistry
East China Sea) (Diaz & Rosenberg 2008)1. Some and climate through emission of active trace
of the increase can be attributed to improved gases (Law et al., 2013) and they affect nearly
observation and monitoring strategies, as well all aspects of ecosystem structure and function
as increased awareness of the problem, but in the water and on the sea floor (Levin 2003;
much is the result of accelerated and inefficient Levin et al. 2009). OMZs are highly dynamic over
use of chemical fertilizers, and pollution due glacial-interglacial periods (Moffitt et al. 2015),
to increasing human populations. In estuarine, but they appear to be expanding in tropical and
shelf and upper slope areas, where the bottom subtropical regions and the NE Pacific as a result
is populated by ecologically and economically of climate change (Stramma et al. 2010).
valuable benthic species, the occurrence
of hypoxic/anoxic conditions can cause Ocean warming contributes to deoxygenation
catastrophic biological losses. Some of the most in several ways: warmer water holds less oxygen
severe examples of hypoxia in estuaries occurred and causes increased stratification, which
historically and still occur in systems where raw reduces ventilation (oxygen replenishment)
sewage from large population centres is released of both the ocean interior (Keeling et al. 2010,
directly into waterways. This also represents an Stramma et al. 2008a, 2008b, 2010) and estuaries
important confluence of concerns over human (Altieri and Gedan 2014). Atmospheric warming
and environmental health that extends beyond creates land-sea temperature differentials that
food-security concerns related to the potential can intensify upwelling of low oxygen waters
effects of hypoxia on fisheries and aquaculture. (Bakun 1990).

Similarly, the latest research results suggest that

1 World Resources Institute: Interactive Map of Eutrophica-
the potential expansion of coastal hypoxia and
tion & Hypoxia. www.wri.org/media/maps/eutrophication/ OMZs could have large effects on, e.g., fisheries

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species through habitat compression, altered upwelling winds (Sydeman et al. 2014, Wang et al.
food webs, and modified species interactions, 2015) and altered circulation (Bograd et al. 2008,
including with fishermen. Even at non-lethal 2014) are bringing OMZ waters closer to shore
levels, exposure to low dissolved oxygen and onto the shelf where they can interact with
concentrations can result in reduced growth watershed and coastal sources of hypoxia (Feely
and reproduction, as well as altered behaviours et al. 2008, 2010). Integrated action is urgently
and distributions of marine species. This means required to prevent and remediate hypoxia (Levin
that ocean deoxygenation will increasingly stress & Breitburg 2015).
aquatic ecosystems nearshore and in deeper
oceanic habitats. The expansion of hypoxic and Much of the information we have about hypoxia
anoxic zones will affect the biogeochemical and is based on scientific activities from researchers
ecological status and functioning of marine and in North America, Europe and Asia, but recent
freshwater ecosystems, as well as the delivery of findings also indicate that the Peru-Chile margins,
ecosystem services. As the ocean loses its breath West Africa and the Northern Indian Ocean and
locally the global ecosystem service of providing Bay of Bengal are increasingly vulnerable to
an environment conducive to life is hampered. deoxygenation events on the shelf (Hofmann et
Model simulations still have difficulties in properly al. 2011). Examples illustrating severe hypoxia as a
representing oxygen historical data of the last result of this human-induced threat can be found in
40 years (Cabré et al., 2015). Clearly we lack a the past, e.g. the estuary of the Thames River in the
full understanding of the mechanisms controlling UK and the Delaware River in the US. This is a serious
oxygen in the ocean interior and on the shelves. problem in developing and rapidly industrializing
Nevertheless, climate model projections predict countries, e.g. the Pearl River estuary in China. We
continued and intensified ocean deoxygenation know very little about oceanographic conditions
into the future (e.g. Matear et al. 2000; Bopp et in the least populated parts of the planet – in the
al. 2002, 2013; Oschlies et al. 2008). Hindcasting open ocean and oceanic islands, however it is
of these models is supported by the geological clear that some of these systems are affected
record, which illustrates expansive ocean anoxic as well. A global network would facilitate and
events that follow climate excursions and glacial improve capabilities for ocean oxygen monitoring
interglacial periods (Moffitt et al. 2015). and help identify the knowledge gaps in order to
direct further research. New collaborative research
is needed to expand global coverage of oxygen
STRATEGIES FOR THE FUTURE data, to revise model calculations and standardize
applied methods, to improve predictions related to
Deoxygenation, along with ocean warming
food security and tourism, and to evaluate impacts
and ocean acidification form a deadly trio of
on non-market ecosystem services such as carbon
threats to ocean life. These pressures are of critical
sequestration, nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and
importance to marine ecosystems because they
are accelerating drastically in a short timeframe 60°E 120°E 180°E 120°W 60°W 0°
90°N 90°N
(Gruber 2011; Mora et al. 2013; Bopp et al.
8
60°N 60°N
2013). Future scenarios for oxygen in the coastal
7
areas and the open ocean will largely depend 30°N 30°N
6
[ml l-1]

on a combination of drivers related to global 0° 0°

5
environmental change and land-use, including
30°S 30°S
4
warming, a growing human population, especially
60°S 60°S 3
along the coasts, and agricultural practices.
Under a business as-usual-scenario, the amount of 60°E 120°E 180°E 120°W 60°W 0°

reactive nitrogen entering the ocean is projected Fig.2 — Annual average oxygen concentration
to grow by 50% by 2050 (Noone et al. 2012), leading ml l-1 at 200 m depth (one-degree grid, contour
to the increased frequency, intensity and duration interval 0.5 ml l-l) (World Ocean Atlas 2013, Garcia et
of coastal hypoxia. At the same time intensifying al. 2014).

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food web support. The global extent and threat use efficiency are needed. Institutional capacities
to human health and marine ecosystem services for managing waste and nutrients need to be
of ocean deoxygenation are just beginning strengthened and installed at the local, national,
to be appreciated; the social and economic regional and global levels. New public-private
consequences have yet to be determined but partnerships are also needed across key sectors
are likely to be significant. Thus, one of the biggest to stimulate innovation in nutrient reduction and
challenges for future scientific actions is to value reuse technology. The toolkit for mitigation and
the impact of ocean deoxygenation. To date, adaptation to deoxygenation must be diverse
needed monetary assessments taking the market and may include a suite of practices that create
and non-market consequences of decreased a safe space for ecosystems (Scheffer et al. 2015).
oxygen concentration into account are still very Among these are water quality management,
scarce, too general (Mora et al. 2013), or are reduced harvesting or fishery closures during
restricted to certain areas in the world, e.g. the low oxygen seasons, creation of oxygenated
Gulf of Mexico (Rabotyagov et al. 2014). refugia or marine protected areas, restoration
of circulation or flushing regimes in enclosed
The good news is that when the cause of water bodies, and control of stress from disease,
hypoxia is eutrophication; it is possible to recover contaminants, habitat degradation or invasive
oxygen levels even in the deadest dead zones. species. Open-ocean deoxygenation, warming
However, marine sediments introduce a delay and ocean acidification are all driven by
in the recovery but due to the non-linearity of increased atmospheric CO2. Therefore, the most
marine processes , that is difficult to assess and effective solution to mitigate global environmental
may vary across systems. Moreover, warming will change is curbing carbon emissions. It is critical
impede the recovery of hypoxic areas, and may to recognize and understand these climate
require greater reductions in nutrient release to stressors as cumulative impacts interacting with
waterways (Capet et al., 2013). Both treatments of other human activities, and to manage ocean
human waste and dramatic increases in fertilizer- ecosystems accordingly.

The Ocean’s multiple stressor challenge

Elevated temperatures, higher acidity, decreased oxygen

All regions of the ocean are impacted by multiple stressors. The biological response to these is assumed to exhibit a strong
variation and complexity. The reduction in local stressors can potentially affect the impact of global drivers. Restricting
fisheries can sometimes compensate for mortality and lost production due to hypoxia (Breitburg et al. 2009), but has
consequences to human food supplies and economies. In order to manage our ocean sustainably the impact of multiple
stressors has to be considered while calculating and predicting our future marine environment.
While the chemical and physical changes associated with ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation occur all
over the world, the imprint of these global stressors will have a strong regional and local nature. The coalescence of the
different global stressors in certain regions is already creating a number of ‘hotspots’, e.g. the Eastern Boundary Upwelling
Regions. In addition to these regional ‘hotspots’, certain marine ecosystems are highly vulnerable to multiple stressors, e.g.
coral reefs. Other examples show that top predators in the marine food web of the Eastern Tropical Pacific, also important
for the economic development of certain regions, are impaired by deoxygenation, ocean acidification and temperature
increase.
The different levels of response require an assessment, including observations, experiments and forecast models, taking into
account the impacts of multiple stressors at the physiological/biogeochemical, the organism, and the ecosystem level.
Following the science, policy has to act to manage the marine resources in light of multiple stressors. Cross-scale gover-
nance systems for marine resources need to be developed or implemented. A change of societal behavior should result
in reducing local threats, while at the same time a precautionary approach to multiple stressors should be adopted at the
global scale. Finally, capacity building is needed in order to transfer the knowledge on data collection, data management
and modeling to regions affected by deoxygenation and acidification but where the knowledge and understanding of
these processes are still very limited.

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 ocean-climate.org

The Deep
Nadine Le Bris

Ocean:
Which Climate Issues?
The deep ocean (200m below the surface to 11,000m) represents over 98% of marine waters
in volume. The image of a stable and homogeneous environment over vast areas, with low
biological activity, does not actually reflect the diversity of deep-sea ecosystems nor their
sensitivity to climate change. Even on the abyssal plains, variations in abundance of key
species have been attributed to changes in the photosynthetic productivity at the surface
of the ocean. Moreover, many biodiversity and productivity ‘hot-spots’ of the deep seafloor,
and their foundation species such as deep-sea corals could be particularly vulnerable
to the already observable changes at great depths, such as local or regional warming
deep water, acidification and deoxygenation and modifications of the circulation of water
masses. This vulnerability questions our ability to anticipate the consequences of climate
change on poorly known ecosystems and the services they provide.

DYNAMIC DEEP-SEA ECOSYSTEMS nitrate, CO2 contents) changing very slowly as

organic matter transported from the surface is being
IN A HETEROGENEOUS degraded by microorganisms.
ENVIRONMENT
This large scale view of the ocean circulation is
When it comes to climate, the deep ocean is first mirrored in the perception of a deep ocean where
seen as a vast saltwater reservoir that allows heat biological activity is sparse, populated by species
distribution around the globe via thermohaline with slow metabolisms adapted to a cold and dark
circulation. The sequestration of atmospheric CO2 environment, low nutritional resources, and high
released by human activities, and of the excess heat pressures. Considered as uniform and quasi-desertic,
that it generates, operates on secular to millennia these oceanic regions would be barely affected
scales during which ocean waters, after plunging to by ongoing climate change, or only in the very
depths, flow over the seafloor across ocean basins long term. However, this view is inconsistent with our
before reemerging at the surface. current knowledge of the wide variety of deep-sea
ecosystems. An increasing number of studies show
We can consider that the upper limit of the deep that most of these deep-sea ecosystems interact
ocean lies about 200m below the surface, where with the climate system. Even the abyssal plains
there is no sunlight or seasonal temperature that are sustained by limited food supply, formed
variations, and extends to the ocean floor down by planktonic remains and other organic debris,
to a maximum depth of 11,000m. This environment are subject to seasonal variations. In particular,
represents over 98% of marine waters in volume. It is changes in species abundance have been
described as stable and uniform over large areas, observed, revealing an unexpected ecological
isolated from continents and the atmosphere, with dynamics attributed to differences in surface ocean
water chemical properties (like pH and oxygen, photosynthetic productivity from year to year.

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Moreover, beside the vast abyssal sedimentary To this must be added the ecosystems that
domain occupying 75% of the ocean floor, we exploit the energy stored in the heart of the
can no longer overlook other types of deep-sea ocean floor as magmatic heat or hydrocar-
environments that are, at least, of equal ecolo- bons. Hydrothermal vent ecosystems or those
gical or societal importance. The topography of associated to methane seeps have in common
the ocean floor is indeed similar to the reliefs of the local production of organic matter by che-
continents (i.e. expanding over a depth range of mosynthetic microorganisms from CO2 or me-
11,000m in the deepest trench, to be compared to thane. Limited to exchange zones between the
the 8,500m of Mt. Everest). Interplaying with oceanic lithosphere and hydrosphere, they are home to
currents, this rugged seabed is home to a mosaic of communities as opulent as those of the most pro-
ecosystems themselves composed of fragmented ductive photosynthetic marine ecosystems. Their
habitats (Ramires-Llodra et al. 2010). Today’s satellite influence in the major ocean processes, particu-
imaging techniques enable a detailed view of their larly those driving the carbon cycle, remains to be
distribution and diversity at global scale. This diverse quantified. This is especially the case concerning
environment creates major biomes equivalent to methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, which is
those linked to terrestrial climates (tundra, savanna, partly sequestered under the form of carbonates
etc.) to which species have adapted. Like terres- at the seafloor. Although their vulnerability is not
trial or coastal environments, the deep ocean also well evaluated, their patrimonial value in terms of
hosts ‘hot-spots’ of biodiversity and productivity, foundamental knowledge (e.g. evolution of life)
special places of biodiversity and productivity, and as well as for genetic innovations (e.g. bio-inspi-
their functioning and associated “services” could ration) is already largely recognized.
be particularly vulnerable to climate impacts and
ocean acidification.
HOW CHANGES IN DEEP WATER
For example, seamounts that rise from hundreds to PROPERTIES MAY DIRECTLY IMPACT
thousands of meters above the abyssal plains can
ECOSYSTEMS
promote vertical exchanges of chemical nutrients
up to the surface layers of the ocean, boosting
The temperature of the water masses that
photosynthesis and the whole trophic food chain
supply certain deep-sea basins has increased
(Morato et al. 2010). Their flanks are home to a
significantly in recent decades. For example, on
wide variety of deep water corals (also known as
the Hausgarten observatory site at the junction
‘cold-water corals’ due to their occurrence in shal-
of the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, an average
lower depths at high latitudes), and gorgonians
increase of 0.1°C was observed between
that sometimes form large canopies or reefs. These
2000 and 2008 at 2,500m depth (Soltwedel
internationally protected species function as refuge
et al., 2005). The temperature of the Eastern
and nurser for many species of fish, crustaceans
Mediterranean, as well, increased by 0.2°C
and invertebrates (Roberts et al. 2006). The ‘ser-
between 1995 and 1999. Insufficient knowledge
vices’ identified for these ecosystems are largely
of natural fluctuations, however, limits the
related to artisanal or industrial fishery resources,
assessment of possible impacts. In this case,
but it is clear that these natural settings conceal
the observed warming followed a decrease of
treasures that are still largely unknown, including
0.4°C in the previous 4 years. Nevertheless, these
those of their biodiversity.
observations reveal the possibility of a gradual
warming of the deep water that could impact
On continental margins, submarine canyons that
the species more severely when they are close to
cut into the shelf play a similar role as seamounts
their tolerance; particularly in the polar regions
when they channel deep water upwelling (De
where species have adapted to temperatures
Leo et al. 2010). These incised valleys can also,
as low as -1°C at 1,000m or, to the opposite, in
conversely accelerate transfers of material from
the Mediterranean sea where the temperature
the continental shelf or even from continents to
of deep waters does not drop below 12°C.
the deep waters.

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Ocean acidification, the other CO2 problem, Similarly the waters off Greenland tend to beco-
is even more critical as the pH of deep waters me less oxygenated, and at the same time they
is already low due to CO2 production from are warmer and saltier, reflecting a less effective
the breakdown of organic matter. Corrosive ventilation (Soltwedel et al. 2005). The effects
conditions for aragonite are anticipated in large of a limited but persistent oxygen reduction on
regions of the deep ocean (Guinotte et al. 2006). ocean biodiversity are poorly known. In certain
These conditions would be unfavorable for the cases, very poorly oxygenated waters are for-
formation of skeletons by deep-sea corals, even med, leading to a major reduction in the depth
if recent ex situ experiments show that their range of the habitat for pelagic fish species like
response to this constraint is complex. Similar to marlin and tuna (Stramma et al. 2010). Certain
tropical coral reefs, the ecosystems they support continental margins and semi-enclosed seas,
could suffer major damage and will be difficult such as the Black Sea, are considered as dead
to predict, especially because they are largely zones with oxygen-depleted deep waters that
out of our sight. exclude aerobic marine organisms and espe-
cially all animal life.

INDIRECT IMPACTS COMBINED WITH

CONSEQUENCES OF INTERMITTENT
CARBON CYCLING AND SYNERGY
EVENTS UNDER ATMOSPHERIC
EFFECTS
INFLUENCE
The biological pump that allows carbon transfer
to the depths is also the main source of nutrition The influence of climate on deep-sea ecosystems
for abyssal communities. Changes in surface also occurs through intermittent phenomena
photosynthetic productivity and in the diversity that affect the circulation of water masses
of phytoplankton may affect the transfer. The at local and regional scales. One of the best
relative decrease in diatoms, where larger cell documented phenomenon is called ‘cascading’.
size and mass favour sedimentation via a so- This phenomenon occurs irregularly and lasts
called ballast effect could notably reduce food several weeks. It has been described especially
inputs to the depths. A decrease in large fau- in the Arctic where it is linked to the formation of
na density (e.g. sea cucumber, echinoderms…) sea ice, and in the Mediterranean where cold,
at the Hausgarten Arctic site, or the long-term dense waters are formed in winter under the
trends at the PAP site on the Atlantic Porcupine influence of winds. ‘Cascades’ are formed when
abyssal plain, suggest that these phenomena surface waters cool down and get enriched
are already occuring (Glover et al. 2010). In the in salt, becoming denser than deeper water.
Arctic and Antarctic regions, this phenomenon When ‘flowing’ into the depths, these water
is amplified by ice melting and could significant- masses transport sediment from the shelf. These
ly influence deep-sea ecosystems (Boetius et are intense events that can significantly affect
al. 2012). ecosystems by transferring large amounts of
particulate matter to the deep basins (Canals
Other indirect effects may result from the reduc- et al. 2006).
tion of oxygen content related not only to an
increase in surface photosynthetic productivity Changes in the intensity and frequency of these
resulting in higher microbial degradation rates events may affect the functioning and stability
consuming oxygen but also to a decrease of of deep-sea ecosystems more rapidely than
deep water mass ventilation. For example, the long-term changes in ocean circulation. The
deep Caribbean basin is ventilated by the trans- cycles of disturbance-recolonization due to these
fer of cold oxygenated Atlantic waters via a sill cascading events or other extreme events such
at 1850m depth. The flow rate of these cold wa- as storms are just beginning to be described
ters appears to have declined since the 1970s. (Puscheddu et al. 2013, Sanchez-Vidal 2012).

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DEEP SEDIMENTS: RESERVOIRS OR and recycling of essential plankton nutrients

(nitrogen, phosphorus, iron in particular) is being
SOURCE OF GREENHOUSE GASES? identified as essential on local scales, although
the importance of this relief effect in the overall
Continental margins are the most important
global balance has yet to be established.
ocean carbon reservoirs. Land-ocean
interfaces are among the most productive
Knowledge of ecological variability in the
marine ecosystems, and most of the carbon
deep ocean, is still based on a limited number
formed there is quickly buried in sediments.
of data sets obtained during oceanographic
Seafloor ecosystems play a major role in this
expeditions. The technological advances of
sequestration (Levin and Sibuet 2012).
recent decades (ROV, AUV and HD imaging)
have made these environments more accessible,
The fate of fossil carbon buried in the form of
and promote their exploration. A few dozen of
hydrocarbons and, particularly, methane (as
deep sites, at most, have been the subject of
hydrates and gas) remains one of the main
multi-annual monitoring and allows a first analysis
unknowns. The dissociation of hydrates under
of the causes of variability (Glover et al. 2010).
the effect of warming could greatly increase
the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere
if methane gas is emitted massively. Conversely, A NEED FOR INTEGRATED
methane dissolved in seawater is efficiently
EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES
consumed by microorganisms in the water
column and sediment. The dissociation
To assess the impact of climate-driven distur-
of hydrates additionnally affect seafloor
bances, it is essential to set up observation
ecosystems, through physical disturbance of the
sites and long-term experiments to investigate
sediment (volcanic mud eruption), limiting the
the synergistic effects of different phenomena
effectiveness of this biological filter.
on deep-sea habitats and their biological and
functional diversity (Mora et al. 2013). On this
A MORE DETAILED GLOBAL basis it would be possible to consider mecha-
nistic models, but this requires taking into ac-
VIEW, BUT FEW LONG-TERM count multiple influences on organisms and the
OBSERVATIONS response of whole communities to change. The
latter is undoubtedly the most difficult to grasp.
Given the difficulty of accessing this vast and
fragmented environment where instruments The sensitivity of deep ecosystems to climate
are exposed to extreme physical constraints, change largely depends on the plasticity of
observation data at scales relevant to climate species, and particularly of the so-called foun-
are still sparse. However, current technologies dation species or engineers of the ecosystem.
are rapidly evolving and series of multi-annual The deep-sea corals for example play a major
data documenting the physical properties of role in building reef-like structures that form the
water masses are becoming available through habitat for many other species. The sensitivity of
deep-sea observatories. Observations on scales these species to environmental changes is com-
representative of climatic impacts (10-50 years) plex and in situ studies are just beginning. The
are are still lacking, however. acclimatation and adaptation capacities may
vary from one region to another (as for example
Moreover, observation from satellites now allow in the Red Sea where metabolic adaptations al-
more precise and detailed mapping of deep- low their development at 20° C, while elsewhere
sea ‘hot-spots’ and fleets of drifting buoys their temperature upper range is estimated to
have brought better views of regional ocean be around 13° C; Roder et al. 2013).
circulation dynamics. The role of the seafloor
heterogeneity and its role in carbon exchange

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The capacity of larvae to dispersed between atmospheric events such as cyclones, for exa-
deep-sea hotspots, isolated in space but mple, were only recently identified among the
connected to each other by ocean water cir- potential factors that play a role in larval mi-
culation, remains an enigma for most of their gration at depth. Under the influence of El Nino
endemic species. Again climate change ap- and La Nina oscillations, it was recently shown
pears likely to play a role. Even if we are unable that episodic hurricanes off Mexico generate
to describe the consequences of combined cli- eddies that extend from the surface to 2500m
mate change effects, studies dedicated to the deep, promoting larval transport over distances
most iconic hydrothermal species are providing of several hundred kilometers between usually
first insights to this issue. Sporadic events in the isolated ecosystems (Adams et al., 2011).
circulation of deep water masses induced by

REFERENCES

• ADAMS D. K., MCGILLICUDDY D. J., ZAMUDIO L., THURNHERR A. M., LIANG X., ROUXEL O., GERMAN C. R.
and MULLINEAUX L. S., 2011 – Surface-Generated Mesoscale Eddies Transport Deep-Sea Products
from Hydrothermal Vents. Science 332, 580 – 583.
• BOETIUS A., ALBRECHT S., BAKKER K., BIENHOLD C., FELDEN J., FERNANDEZ-MENDEZ M., HENDRICKS S.,
KATLEIN C., LALANDE C., KRUMPEN T., NICOLAUS M., PEEKEN I., RABE B., ROGACHEVA A., RYBAKOVA
E., SOMAVILLA R. and WENZHOFER F., 2013 – RV Polarstern ARK27-3-Shipboard Science Party. Export
of Algal Biomass from the Melting Arctic Sea Ice. Science 339, 1430–1432.
• DE LEO F. C., SMITH C. R., ROWDEN A. A., BOWDEN D. A. and CLARK M. R., 2010 – Submarine
Canyons : Hotspots of Benthic Biomass and Productivity in the Deep Sea. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci.
277, 2783 – 2792.
• GLOVER A. G. et al., 2010 – Temporal Change in Deep-Sea Benthic Ecosystems: a Review of the
Evidence from Recent Time-Series Studies. Advances in Marine Biology. vol. 58, pp. 1-79.
• GUINOTTE J.-M., ORR J., CAIRNS S., FREIWALD A., MORGAN L. and GEORGE R., 2006 – Will Human-
Induced Changes in Seawater Chemistry Alter the Distribution of Deep-Sea Scleractinian Corals ?
Frontier in Env. and Ecol., 4 (3) : 141 – 146.
• LEVIN L. A. and SIBUET M., 2012 – Understanding Continental Margin Biodiversity : a New Imperative.
Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 4, 79 – 112.
• MORA C. et al., 2013 – Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean
Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century. PLoS Biol. 11, e1001682.
• RAMIREZ-LLODRA E. et al., 2010 – Deep, diverse and definitely different : unique attributes of the
world’s largest ecosystem. Biogeosciences 7, 2851 – 2899.
• RODER C., BERUMEN M. L., BOUWMEESTER J., PAPATHANASSIOU E., AL-SUWAILEM A. and
VOOLSTRA C. R., 2013 – First Biological Measurements of Deep-Sea Corals from The Red Sea. Sci.
Rep. 3.
• SOLTWEDEL T. et al., 2005 – Hausgarten : Multidisciplinary Investigation at a Deep-Sea Long-Term
Observatory. Oceanography 18 (3). 46-61.
• STRAMMA L., SCHMIDTKO S., LEVIN L. A. and JOHNSON G. C., 2010 – Ocean Oxygen Minima
Expansions and their Biological Impacts. Deep Sea Res. Part Oceanogr. Res. Pap. 57, 587 – 595.

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The Arctic:
Emmanuelle Quillérou,
Mathilde Jacquot,
Annie Cudennec,

Opportunities,
Denis Bailly

Concerns and
Challenges
The Arctic is often thought of as the land of polar bears and explorers. There are already
several industries operating in the Arctic, through the Arctic, or at the periphery of the Arctic
Circle. Receding and thinning sea ice with climate change provides increased access to
natural resources, shipping routes and touristic areas, thereby providing new opportunities for
economic development in the Arctic. The rewards for operating in the Arctic are potentially
extremely high and attractive, but at high financial, environmental and social costs in an
environment which remains financially very risky. Some stakeholders have started securing
access to Arctic resources, sowing the seeds for a ‘cold rush’. Such ‘cold rush’ has not
materialised yet, slowed down because of high economic costs and political sensitivity.
The main political challenge ahead is to successfully reconcile the different perspectives
and interests in the Arctic. One option to facilitate this reconciliation is to build up existing
institutional capacity in line with the pace of economic development. There is certainly
strong potential for creating shared economic wealth and well-being. Actual choices made
by Arctic industries and countries for economic development, coordination and cooperation
for establishment of environmental and social safegards within the coming years will shape
what the future Arctic will look like.

The Arctic refers to an oceanic area around region includes all five states bordering the Arctic
the North Pole and Arctic Circle partly covered Ocean, with the addition of Iceland, Finland
in sea ice and surrounded by frozen lands. The and Sweden. There is no agreed delineation
Arctic is made of two zones: the Arctic Ocean of an ‘Arctic Region’ and population estimates
and the Arctic region. The Arctic Ocean is vary from 4 to 10 million depending on the
bordered by five sovereign states (United States geographic extent considered (Ahlenius et
of America, Canada, Denmark, Norway, and al., 2005, p.6 & 14; Norway Ministry for Foreign
the Russian Federation) subject to international Affairs, 2015, p.5; Duhaime and Caron, 2006).
law of the sea (in particular under the under the
United Nations Convention on the Law of the The Arctic is part of the global climate system
Sea, UNCLOS, of 10 December 1982). The Arctic with heat redistribution through ocean currents
region is broader and encompasses all states between the North Pole and the equator, as
which have land in the Arctic Circle. The Arctic well as heat and nutrient redistribution between

36
 ocean-climate.org

surface waters and the deep abyssal plains THE ARCTIC, A PLACE OF INTENSE
(Ocean and Climate, 2015). Impacts from
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BUT WITH
climate change in the Arctic are stronger and
faster than any other areas of the globe. The WIDE VARIATIONS BETWEEN
Arctic is therefore seen as the ‘canary in the
COUNTRIES AND INDUSTRIES
mine’, an early warning sentinel of climate
change impacts (The Arctic – The Canary in
There are several industries already operating in
the Mine. Global implications of Arctic climate
the Arctic, through the Arctic, or at the periphery
change. Norwegian-French conference in Paris,
of the Arctic Circle. These include fishing and
17 March 2015).
forestry, mining (oil, gas, minerals), shipping
(sea transport), manufacturing (fish processing,
The Arctic sea ice is now shrinking and thinning
electronics), Arctic tourism, and other services
because of rising concentrations of anthropogenic
associated with human settlements such as
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leaving
education, health care, administration, postal
longer sea ice-free seasons (Speich et al., 2015;
services, shops and restaurants, hydro power and
Parkinson, 2014; Kwok and Rothrock, 2009; Serreze
windmill parks, military activities (Ahlenius et al.,
et al., 2007; Boé et al., 2009; US National Snow
2005, Duhaime and Caron, 2006, Conley et al.,
and Ice Data Center in Boulder Colorado, 03
2013, Glomsrød and Aslaksen, 2009; Dittmer et al.,
March 2015). Scientific scenarios and models
2011). Additionally, the Arctic supports subsistence
have shown that sea level could drop slightly in
activities outside the cash economy such as
certain areas of the Arctic and increase by more
fishing, hunting, caribou and reindeer herding,
than 70 cm along the east coast of the United
gathering, and traditional food processing
States (Ocean and Climate, 2015).

Such changes in the Arctic open up access to

Arctic ocean-floor resources and sea routes, with
new opportunities for economic development
in the region which could impact global trade
patterns and trends (Valsson and Ulfarsson, 2011).
If left open and uncoordinated, such economic
development has the potential to lead to a wild
‘cold rush’ driven by selfish interests rather than a
concerted effort to make the most of these new
opportunities for society as a whole and create
shared wealth and well-being.

• What potential economic benefits would

we derive from economic development of
activities in the Arctic, and at what costs?
• What potential environmental and social
consequences would such economic
development have?
• Have there been any signs of a ‘cold rush’
materialising yet?
• What are the political challenges ahead
if we are to make the most of the new Fig.1 — Patterns of trade and barter between
economic opportunities arising in the Arctic? neighbouring human communities, regional hubs, and
urban communities. Data collected between 2004-
2006 in six western Alaska human communities. Source:
Magdanz et al. (2007, p65).

37
 ocean-climate.org

(Glomsrød and Aslaksen, 2009; Ahlenius et 300 000

Compensation to employees
al., 2005, p.27). Such subsistence activities are 250 000 Compensation to capital
Resource rents

associated with significant traditional trading and 200 000

bartering between different Arctic populations 150 000

(Figure 1; Glomsrød and Aslaksen, 2009). 100 000

50 000

The Arctic, at the macroeconomic level, 0

1985-1989 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004
displays intense economic activity linked to the
exploitation of natural resources, and a very Fig.3 — Five-year average decomposition of gross
dominant service industry (Figure 2; Duhaime production in the Norwegian oil and gas (offshore) sec-
and Caron, 2006; Glomsrød and Aslaksen, tor (Source: Duhaime and Caron, 2006, Figure 1 p.24).
2009). Exploitation of natural resources includes
geographically concentrated large-scale
At the microeconomic level, the resource rent
extraction of non-renewable resources such as
derived from production in the Norwegian oil and
hydrocarbons, nickel, diamonds and gold, as
gas (offshore) sector has risen quite significantly
well as geographically widespread small-scale
in 2000-2004 compared to previous periods
commercial fishing and forest exploitation. The
(Figure 3). Resource rents for renewable natural
public sector often accounts for 20-30% and
resources are much lower, with hydropower
the overall service industry for over 50% of all
and forestry associated with positive resource
economic activity in the Arctic regions.
rents, commercial fisheries associated with
negative but increasing rents, and aquaculture
Alaska associated with positive and negative resources
rents (Figure 4).
Arctic Canada Primary
Secondary
The Arctic has limited shipping activity dominated
Tertiary
Faroe Islands by population resupply along the Northern Sea
Route and Northwest passage, fishing in the ice-
Arctic Finland free waters around Iceland and in the Bering,
Barents and Norwegian Seas, and tourism along
Greenland the coasts of Northern Norway, Southwest
Greenland and Svalbard (Peters et al., 2011). Bulk
Iceland cargo is associated with large mining operations
in Alaska (zinc) and Russia (mainly nickel) and
Arctic Norway limited oil and gas transport mostly taking place
on the Eurasian side (Peters et al., 2011).
Arctic Russia

Arctic Sweden
LOCAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC
Arctic Regions
ACTIVITIES ARISING WITH
0 20 40 60 80 100
Per cent CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE
Fig.2 — GDP (%) by main industry in the different ARCTIC: POTENTIALLY HIGH
Arctic Regions (reference year: 2003) (Source: Du-
ECONOMIC BENEFITS FOR
haime and Caron, 2006, Figure 2.1 p.19). Primary sec-
tor: large-scale extraction of non-renewable resources, HIGH ECONOMIC COSTS IN
small-scale commercial fishing and forest exploitation;
A HIGH-RISK ENVIRONMENT
secondary sector: manufacturing and construction;
tertiary sector: service industries.

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 ocean-climate.org

1 500 Resource rents forestry

Resource rents fisheries Pacific region), the Northwest passage (along
Resource rents aquaculture
1 000 Resource rents hydro power the North American coastline), or the Bering
500 Strait (53-mile strait between Siberia and Alaska)
0 thanks to reduced ice cover extent and thickness
-500
and longer ice-free periods increasing seasonal
-1 000
availability to maritime traffic (Conley et al., 2013,
p.32-37; Peters et al., 2011). These routes cut down
-1 500
1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005
miles, shipping time and fuel costs, which com-
bined with high fuel costs increase their appeal
Fig.4 — Five-year average resource rents from the to the industry. Estimates of 40% shipping cost sa-
renewable natural resources in Norway (Source: Du-
ving and recent cost saving ‘records’ between
haime and Caron, 2006, Figure 2 p.25).
Europe and Asia are widely quoted to illustrate the
All industries operating in the Arctic region are economic potential of these routes. More recent
faced with slightly different opportunities and studies accounting for ship performance in ice
constraints arising because of climate change conditions are far less optimistic with only 5-16%
in the Arctic, associated with potentially high cost saving now, and up to 29% in 2030 and 37%
economic benefits but for high economic costs in 2050 (Peters et al., 2011; Liu and Kronbak (2010).
in an environment that is financially risky to ope- Actual cost saving needs to be traded off with the
rate in. The receding ice sheet cover allows for higher costs for ice class ships, non-regularity and
increased physical access to natural resources slower speeds, navigation difficulties and risks of
such as fish and timber (renewable resources), accidents from poor visibility and ice conditions,
oil, gas and minerals (non renewable resources). as well as the need for extra ice breaker service
Such increased access could translate into ad- (Liu and Kronbak, 2010). There area limited nu-
ditional economic revenues for the fish, timber, mber of public-use deep-water ports, re-fuelling
mining (oil & gas, minerals) industries. Economic stations, or reliable re-supply locations, limited
opportunities arise mainly with increased physi- communications and emergency response in-
cal access or access time to quantities of natural frastructure including search and rescue capacity
resources, not so much because of increases in in the Russian Federation and Northern Europe
market prices. and almost non-existent communications and
emergency response infrastructure along the
Most of the following descriptions and numbers North American coastline (Valsson and Ulfarsson,
rely on the use of models for predictions of future 2011; Dawson et al., 2014). All these could reduce
outcomes and are often subject to a high level the appeal of using Arctic shipping routes rather
of uncertainty. The quality of the outputs from than the Suez or Panama canals, especially af-
such models depends on data quality, trends and ter recent drop in oil prices reducing actual cost
understanding at the time the models were esta- saving (Peters et al., 2011).
blished. The predictions from such models should
be considered with caution, especially when very The Arctic fishing and aquaculture industry would
optimistic, as they may not fully materialise, or benefit from increased stock levels. Southern and
only in 2030-2050. The second difficulty in judging pseudo-oceanic temperate fish species stocks are
actual opportunities is based on the fact that the relocating North (Barents and Bering Seas), which
numbers of potential gains put forward are not could lead to unprecedented harvest levels most
always based on evidence but rather on per- likely benefiting commercial fisheries (Hunt Jr. et
ceptions. al., 2013; Christiansen et al., 2014; Falk-Petersen et
al., 2015). The Barents Sea already displays higher
The shipping (sea transport) industry would benefit levels of fish biomass density, with productivity at
from greater use of Arctic and circumpolar (sea all trophic levels increasing with climate change
transport) shipping routes such as the Northern and increased upwelling of nutrient-rich waters
Sea Route (the shipping lane along the Russian such as that of winter 2012. Actual streams of
Arctic coast that connects Europe to the Asia- economic benefits depend on successfully

39
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avoiding overfishing under yet insufficient Arctic based insurance market, and Chatham House,
fisheries biological data (Christiansen et al., 2014). a British think tank, in April 2012, not all insurers
Economic benefits are to be traded off with the are happy to insure operations in the Arctic (e.g.,
negative impact of climate change and ocean German bank West LB), partly in relation to the
acidification over calcareous shellfish (e.g. clams logistical and operational challenges due to
and oysters) and zooplankton (krill, pteropods the harsh and unpredictable Arctic conditions
consumed by salmons) (Ocean and Climate, (Conley et al., 2013). The recent drop in oil prices,
2015). It has been suggested that climate change combined with the exploitation of previously
could be directly or indirectly one of the causes of non-commercial natural reserves (e.g., shale
the disappearance of commercial species such and other unconventional gas) have generally
as King Salmon off the coast of Alaska (Conley et reduced incentives to operate in the Arctic
al., 2013). Climate change can negatively impact (Conley et al., 2013).
subsistence fishing in areas where it constitutes
a major livelihood source (Himes-Cornell and The Dutch company Shell has pioneered efforts
Kasperski, 2015). Actual cost saving because of for offshore exploitation of oil and gas reserves
higher fish stocks needs to be traded off with the in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. The total
higher fuel costs in addition to those generally investment cost for such operation is estimated
applicable to navigating the Arctic, and the high to over US $4.5 billion for lease acquisition in 2005
monitoring and enforcement costs to mitigate and 2008, one sixth of its annual capital spending
illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing budget (Conley et al., 2013). Total investment
in the Arctic (WWF, 2008). may exceed US $40-50 billion, which represents a
significant financial risk for the company (Conley
The oil and gas industry would benefit from et al., 2013).
increased physical access to oil and gas resources
including offshore reserves in the Chukchi Sea. The mineral industry would benefit from increased
400 oil and gas onshore fields north of the Arctic physical access to mineral resources such as
Circle already account for approximately 240 lead and zinc in Alaska, gold in Canada, rare
billion barrels (BBOE) of oil and oil-equivalent earth elements in Greenland, diamonds and
natural gas - almost 10 percent of the world’s iron in Canada and Greenland, aluminium in
known conventional resources (cumulative Iceland, and nickel in Russia (Duhaime and
production and remaining proved reserves) (Bird Caron, 2006; Conley et al., 2013). In particular,
et al., 2008). The total undiscovered conventional Greenland could become a gateway for China’s
oil and gas resources of the Arctic believed to commercial entry into the Arctic region following
be recoverable using existing technology are recent discovery of large reserves of rare earth
estimated to be approximately 90 billion barrels metals and increased Chinese strategic interest
of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, in these resources (Gattolin, 2014, Conley et
and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, with al., 2013). The GFMS index for base metals has
approximately 84% of the undiscovered oil and increased by 300% between June 2002 and
gas occurring offshore (Bird et al., 2008). Oil and June 2007 (Gattolin, 2014, Conley et al., 2013)
gas exploitation in the Arctic however comes with whilst gold extraction has been put on hold in
high costs for Arctic resistant infrastructure and Alaska following low world market prices (Conley
operations, as well as capital costs for purchase et al., 2013). Mineral exploitation in the Arctic
of exploration licenses, leases, drilling permits, comes at high infrastructure and operation
equipment and personnel (Conley et al., 2013). costs to withstand the harsh weather conditions.
There is still low competition from alternative Infrastructure development and maintenance
energies - which have longer term potential - such (road or rail corridors) is often borne by government
as wind, waves, hydropower from the huge rivers rather than industry. Infrastructure development
that flow into the Arctic Ocean, and geothermal could unlock exploitation of resources (e.g.
energy in a few places (Valsson and Ulfarsson, copper exploitation on hold in Alaska for lack of
2011). Following a report by Lloyd’s, a large UK- infrastructure, Conley et al., 2013).

40
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Climate change in the Arctic seems to have ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS

extended access to areas of touristic value,
benefiting the Arctic tourism industry directly. It The main environmental concerns are linked to
has opened up previously inaccessible areas for the loss of pristine environment and unique Arctic
exploration and use by the expedition cruise ship ecosystems because of climate change or Arctic
industry as well as lengthened the shipping season economic development pressures. In the USA, the
(Dawson et al., 2014). There is globally increasing Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act
demand for ‘remote’ tourism experiences and for established in 1980 the Arctic National Wildlife
the unique and iconic landscapes and wildlife Refuge (ANWR), a 19 million acre protected
which have led to an increase in Arctic tourism wilderness area including caribou herds, polar
(Dawson et al., 2014). Itineraries around Arctic bears, and mammals as well as numerous fish
Canada have more than doubled from 2005 to and bird species.
2013, even if they remain limited with less than 30
itineraries a year (Dawson et al., 2014). Infrastructure Arctic economic development is associated with
and operation costs for Arctic tourism operators a high risk of air and marine pollution, particularly
are decreasing with climate change (Dawson from oil spills, Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs),
et al., 2014). Transaction costs are however heavy metals, radioactive substances, as well
high for tourism in Arctic areas, with operation as the depletion of the ozone layer (Kao et al.,
permits difficult to obtain in some countries or 2012; Conley et al., 2013). Shell’s operations in the
associated with a high opportunity cost for the Arctic have been slowed down following its oil spill
country because of tax avoidance and lack of barge, the Arctic Challenger, being damaged
effective communication between government and lack of appropriate oil spill response measures
agencies (Dawson et al., 2014). Information costs in place (Conley et al., 2013). Pollution generated
can be high for navigation in ‘unchartered’ ‘wild’ by heavy diesel fuels of Arctic sea transport and
Arctic areas, with navigation accidents such as tourism ships is a concern because of the acce-
the grounding of the Clipper Adventurer in the lerated sea ice decline it induces (Conley et al.,
summer of 2010 occurring because of the poor 2013). Concerns over pollution generated from
accuracy of nautical maps (Dawson et al., 2014). mineral extraction have stalled mineral extraction
for gold in Alaska (Conley et al., 2013). The high
The limited Arctic manufacturing industry would risk of oil spill and reputational damage this could
benefit from increased inputs availability such cause, insurers ‘cold feet’ to cover oil extraction
as fish for processing (Iceland, Greenland), rare in the Arctic combined with the high financial
earth minerals for electronics (Arctic Finland), costs and risks have led to Total and BP to back
and aluminium for smelting (Iceland) (Glomsrød off from the Arctic (Conley et al., 2013).
and Aslaksen, 2009). As for other industries, high
costs of capital, technology, qualified labour Climate change externalities are a concern,
and transportation to consumption centres as carbon emissions are more damaging in the
from manufacturing centres usually limit the Arctic than elsewhere (Whiteman et al., 2013).
development of the manufacturing industry in the Whiteman et al. (2013) estimated that methane
Arctic (Conley et al., 2013; Arctic.ru, March 2015). released only from Arctic offshore permafrost
Changing and unpredictable climate conditions thawing would have a price tag of USD 60 trillion
as well as thawing permafrost will likely increase in the absence of mitigating action, represen-
investment and repair costs. ting about 15% of the mean total predicted cost
of climate-change impacts of USD 400 trillion.
The service industry serving local Arctic populations Mitigation could potentially halve the costs of me-
would indirectly benefit from increased economic thane releases (Whiteman et al., 2013). Economic
activity in the region but also most likely incur consequences are global, but with about 80% of
additional costs for infrastructure development them impacting the poorer economies of Africa,
and maintenance such as roads not covered by Asia and South America with increased frequency
the private sector (Conley et al., 2013). of extreme climate events (Whiteman et al., 2013).

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SOCIAL CONCERNS THE SEEDS ARE SOWN, BUT THE

‘COLD RUSH’ IS STILL DORMANT
Social concerns arise with climate change itself or
with economic development and industrialisation.
Industries in the Arctic could potentially reap very
Most of the focus is on indigenous and resident
high economic rewards from operating there, but
populations of the Arctic who heavily depend
the overall high investment and operation costs
on subsistence resources provided by their
make it a financially high-risk environment to operate
environment. The receding ice sheet and
in and reduce its competitiveness compared to
unstable ice pack because of climate change
other regions of the world. All stakeholders seem
reduces game and sea mammal subsistence
to act to position themselves in the starting blocks
hunting and ice fishing opportunities (Ahlenius et
by strategically securing access rights to Arctic
al., 2005 p. 4; Himes-Cornell and Kasperski, 2015).
resources and circumpolar routes. The ‘cold rush’
Economic development generated increased
has not really started yet, with all stakeholders
competition for access to resources within and
exercising relative caution in relation to the huge
between industries. There is increased competition
financial, reputational and political risks involved
for fishing resources between coastal trawl and
with economic development of the Arctic.
subsistence fishers in southern-based fisheries
(Ahlenius et al., 2005 p24). There is competition
between subsistence fishing and offshore oil and POLITICAL CHALLENGES AHEAD:
gas extraction (Alaska) and between subsistence
RECONCILING DIFFERENT
herders and oil and gas extraction (Russia) (Conley
et al., 2013; Duhaime and Caron, 2006) PERSPECTIVES TO MAKE THE MOST
OF NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND
Increased Arctic tourism is approved by
indigenous and resident populations so long as INCLUDING ENVIRONMENTAL AND
it is managed well and respects sensitive and
SOCIAL CONCERNS IN THE ARCTIC
culturally important shore locations, wildlife and
other natural landscapes (Dawson et al., 2014).
Very contrasted perspectives and social values of
This has occurred de facto in Arctic Canada
the Arctic co-exist: ‘wilderness’ to environmental
following ‘good will’ and high ethical standards
organisations for preservation or bequeath to
of expedition cruise operators, but may be prone
future generations, a ‘frontier’, source of energy
to change with new comers entering the industry
and minerals, to industry, a ‘home’ to over a million
because of a lack of formal regulation. Health
indigenous people, and a place of ‘strategic
risk concerns from indigenous population have
and geopolitical interest’ to government for
in some cases stalled mineral extraction (e.g.,
military, energy and environmental security
uranium in Alaska, Conley et al., 2013). Mineral
(adapted from an original citation by Sheila
extraction has been stalled in a few Alaska
Watt-Cloutier in Ahlenius et al., 2005). The main
locations following strong indigenous concerns
political challenges ahead would seem to be
and contestation (e.g., gold and coal, Conley
linked to the conciliation of such contrasted
et al., 2013).
perspectives, minimising conflicts between them
and ensuring they can live alongside one another
As illustrated by historical changes in Russian
peacefully at a pace keeping up with that of very
governance, heavy dependence of Arctic
fast economic development associated with a
communities on only one industry (service)
‘cold rush’.
makes Arctic population vulnerable to industry
and government withdrawals with dire social
One possible way to achieve this would be through
consequences in an environment where
integration of science, economics and diplomacy
employment alternatives are extremely limited
for conflict resolution (Berkman and Young, 2009).
(Amundsen, 2012; Glomsrød and Aslaksen, 2009).
Science can provide a ‘neutral’ and recognised

42
 ocean-climate.org

basis for establishing trust, monitoring, reporting 2009). Some Arctic countries have set up national
and verification between all parties. Economics research programmes with an objective to inform
can provide assessment tools that consider trade- action in the Arctic for adaptation under climate
offs and resource use conflicts. Integration of change (The Arctic – The Canary in the Mine.
science, economics and diplomacy could help Global implications of Arctic climate change.
bring together globally well-connected climate Norwegian-French conference in Paris, 17 March
change winners in the Arctic and local and global 2015). Such national initiatives, however, do not
losers. In turn, this could lead to realise economic allow to resolve transboundary issues with a need
opportunities arising with climate change in the for supra-national approaches (Berkman and
Arctic while taking environmental and social Young, 2009).
concerns into account. The exact pathway to
realise this will most likely vary within countries, Between countries, there are a number of
between countries and between the local and jurisdictional conflicts (Figure 5), increasingly
the global levels, with the choice and choice severe clashes over the extraction of natural
processes for such pathway the responsibility of resources and trans boundary security risks,
local and national decision-makers. and the emergence of a new ‘great game’
among the global powers with global security
Within countries, economic and human implications (Berkman and Young, 2009). Regional
development can be identified along three and international cooperation seems to be
models: the ‘North American model’ which generally favoured in spite of demonstrations of
is a neo-liberal regime at the last frontiers unilateral sovereignty extensions in disputed or
(highly concentrated around extraction of non international areas (flag planted by Russia under
renewable rehouses), the ‘Scandinavian model’ the North pole, unilateral extensions of Iceland
which follows the redistribution mode of Northern fishing quotas, Northern Sea Route and Northwest
Europe, and the ‘Russian model’ which is heavily Passage disputed sovereignty statuses).
shaped by its history (Glomsrød and Aslaksen,
2009). New institutional approaches for improved Few but important binding international
natural resource management have been agreements apply to the Arctic. The United Nations
explored in some Arctic areas with promotion Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS, of
of co-management and joint stewardship. This 10 December 1982 is considered one of the main
restructuring of power and responsibilities among binding agreements providing a legal framework
stakeholders requires political will to move to for use of the Arctic to this day. UNCLOS helps
decentralisation and collaborative decision- regulate access to Arctic resources, maritime
making with improved coordination between traffic and pollution through clear identification
indigenous populations and government of national jurisdictions and provision of a
(Glomsrød and Aslaksen, 2009). Policies for mechanism for dispute resolution (Berkman and
promotion of external interests in the Arctic that Young, 2009). In addition to the UNCLOS, there are
recognise local populations as well as improved a number of other international conventions that
data over economic activities and distribution are relevant for Arctic (Dawson et al., 2014): the
of benefits, social and environmental indicators International Convention for Safety of Life at Sea
have the potential to help minimise conflicts (SOLAS) which focuses on safety requirements,
between stakeholders (Ahlenius et al., 2005). the International Convention for the Prevention
Some Arctic countries have adopted measures of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) which focuses
for prevention of pollution with associated legally on environmental protection, the Convention on
recognised compensation mechanisms, and Standards of Training of Seafarers (STCW) which
established national strategies for adaptation to focuses on training and competency, and The
climate change and energy security (Ahlenius Convention for the Protection of the Marine
et al., 2005; Amundsen et al., 2007). For instance, Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR)
Canada is extending the reach of its Arctic Waters which applies to part of the Arctic and provides
Pollution Prevention Act (Berkman and Young, a guide for international cooperation on the

43
 ocean-climate.org

from 2017, There are current discussions to

make the Polar Code compulsory under the
International Convention for the Prevention of
Pollution from Ships (MARPOL).

All these agreements have been possible thanks

to the work of intergovernmental organisations
such as the United Nations and its agencies
(e.g., International Maritime Organization), and
international fora such as the Arctic Council.
Such organisations and fora provide platforms
for dialogue between countries and have
successfully led to the establishment of concerted
and mutually agreed ‘win-win’ coordinated and
concerted action. The Arctic Council is formed
by 8 states with land within the Arctic Circle:
the United States of America (Alaska), Canada,
Denmark (Greenland and the Faroe Islands),
Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the
Russian Federation. The Council is a high level
intergovernmental forum for Arctic governments
Fig.5 — Arctic sea ice Jurisdictional representations and peoples (http://www.arctic-council.org).
of the Arctic Ocean with boundaries based on (top)
It is the main institution of the Arctic and was
sea floor as a source of conflict among nations (diffe-
formally established by the Ottawa Declaration
rent colours) and (bottom) overlying water column as
of 1996 to provide a means for promoting
a source of cooperation, with the high seas (dark blue)
cooperation, coordination and interaction
as an international space in the central Arctic Ocean
among the Arctic States, with the involvement
surrounded by economic exclusive zones (EEZ, light
of the Arctic Indigenous communities and other
blue). Source: Berkman and Young (2009).
Arctic inhabitants on common Arctic issues, in
protection of the marine environment of the particular issues of sustainable development and
North-East Atlantic. environmental protection in the Arctic. The Council
has no regulatory authority but has facilitated the
More recently, a number of framework production of scientific assessments such as the
agreements have been established, in particular Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) by its
in relation to shipping in the Arctic, search and Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme
rescue operations and pollution management. (AMAP) working group, Conservation of Arctic
They provide some guidance and structure Flora and Fauna (CAFF) working group, along
for international cooperation in the Arctic. The with the International Arctic Science Committee
International Maritime Organization (IMO) has (IASC). The Council has successfully brought Arctic
been promoting adoption of a series of voluntary issues to the attention of global fora, with the 2001
guidelines such as those ‘for Ships Operating in Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic
Ice-Covered Arctic Waters’ in 2002, ‘on voyage Pollutants in part informed thanks to the work of
planning for passenger ships operating in remote the Arctic Council (Berkman and Young, 2009).
areas’, and ‘for passenger ships operating in
areas remote from SAR facilities’ (Berkman and There are a number of international scientific
Young, 2009). The IMO has more recently adopted monitoring and research bodies leading scientific
in 2014 an International Code for Ships Operating initiatives and projects, in the Arctic. Such
in Polar Waters (or ‘Polar Code’). The Polar Code international collaborative scientific projects
will be made mandatory under the International could provide a basis to build trust and enhance
Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) Arctic state cooperation through establishing

44
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scientifically sound common baselines (Berkman cold rush starts. Current economic development
and Young, 2009). These include (but are not is already creating new institutional needs in the
limited to) the International Arctic Science Arctic. One of the challenges will be to build up
Committee, the European Polar Board, the French existing capacity fast enough to keep up with
Arctic Initiative (‘Chantier Arctique français’). the pace of economic development. There is
certainly strong potential for creating shared
There is real potential to harness and develop economic wealth and well-being. Actual
existing institutions (i.e. organisations, binding and choices made by Arctic industries and countries
non binding agreements) and build up existing for economic development, coordination and
institutional capacity. The pace of economic cooperation within the coming years will shape
development will be extremely fast when the what the future Arctic will look like.

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les ressources. Changements climatiques et connaissances. Le développement des régions du Grand Nord
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• PARKINSON C. L., 2014 – Global Sea Ice Coverage from Satellite Data : Annual Cycle and 35-Yr Trends. J. Climate,
27 : 9377 – 9382.
• PETERS G. P., NILSSEN T. B., LINDHOLT L., EIDE M. S., GLOMSRØD S., EIDE L. I. and FUGLESTVEDT J. S., 2015 – Future
Emissions from Shipping and Petroleum Activities in the Arctic. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11 : 5305-5320.
• PLATEFORME OCÉAN ET CLIMAT, 2015 – Fiches scientifiques. www. ocean-climate. org, 69 p.
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• WHITEMAN G., HOPE C. and WADHAMS P., 2013 – Climate science : Vastcosts of Arctic change. Nature, 499 :
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Ocean,
Gilles Bœuf

Biodiversity
and Climate
The marine environment has played a key role in the history of life and today’s ocean continues
its primordial function in the evolution of life and climate. The recognized species diversity
in the oceans does not exceed 13% of all currently described living species - fewer than
250,000 - but this can be due partly to our lack of knowledge, especially concerning deep
zones of the oceans and microorganisms, and partly to the fact that marine ecosystems
and the way of life in such a continuous medium disperse more easily species and they are
less predisposed to endemism. In contrast, marine biomass can be considerable. Climate
disturbance has a direct role in the loss of biological diversity, and this loss contributes in
turn to the deregulation itself.

diversity, and became diversified in the ancestral

OCEAN ocean, around 3.9 billion years ago. Life finally
appeared rather quickly, after the initial cooling
The ocean is the largest living space in the world
and condensation of water bodies.
and covers at present 70.8% of the surface of the
Earth – 361 million km². But we should really think
C. de Duve (Nobel Laureate, 1974), said in
of the ocean in terms of volume – around 1,370
«Dust of Life» (1996) that the Earth was so ideally
million km3. The average depth is about 3,800m
positioned relative to the sun, that life could
and the main feature of this gigantic environment is not avoid appearing. And J. Monod spoke
its continuity. Another special feature is, compared about an improbable hypothesis! The oldest
to the rest of the water on the planet, its salinity. known sedimentary rocks (Akilia Island, southern
The ocean’s salinity offshore is extremely stable Greenland) containing carbon from biological
(35 psu1, 1050 mOsm.l-1) and the composition of origins date from 3,850 million years (Ma).
ocean water is the same everywhere, as it has Imagine the very simple, primitive life that first
been for tens of millions of years. developed from a world of RNA and proto-cells.
Current deposits of stromatolites, those rocks that
Biodiversity cannot be likened to a simple list of precipitate bicarbonate (with beautiful deposits
species that inhabit a particular ecosystem. It is in Australia!) are very valuable because they
considerably more than a catalog or inventory, contain within their silicified parts the oldest fossils
and in fact includes the entire set of relationships of known microorganisms – cyanobacteria. These
between living beings among themselves and cyanobacteria began to conquer the ocean from
with their environment. We can define it simply as 3,400 to 3,200Ma when there was no atmospheric
being the living part of nature. Biodiversity comes oxygen. Thanks to specific intracellular pigment,
from pre-biotic chemistry, built upon earlier geo- and in the presence of water, photosynthesis
appeared around 3,500Ma producing oxygen
1 Practical salinity unit and sugar from light and carbon dioxide (CO2).

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Oxygen then began diffusing beyond of the active mechanisms of electrolyte excretion by
aquatic environment: the composition of today’s the gill, constantly leads to a delicate compromise
atmosphere – with 21% oxygen – dates from the between developing maximum gill surface for
Cretaceous, around 100Ma. In this ancient ocean, capturing oxygen in a poor and highly variable
certain events occurred that proved crucial for environment, and on the other hand, minimum
living organisms and biodiversity: gill surface in order to avoid serious hydro-mineral
1. The emergence of the nuclear membrane, imbalances.
and the individualized nucleus (prokaryote-
eukaryote transition) around 2,200Ma. Much later, during the Triassic, around 210Ma, after
2. The capture of ambient cyanobacteria that the third major species extinction crisis around
became symbionts and organelles of the cell, 251 Ma, the beginnings of thermoregulation
mitochondria and plastids, with their own little developed and found their optimal efficiency
DNA, around 2,100 and 1,400Ma respectively. among large dinosaurs, and especially in birds
3. The emergence of multicellular organisms and and mammals. Today 12 phyla are exclusively
metazoans around 2,100Ma. marine animals and have never left the ocean
(Echinoderms, Brachiopods, Chaetognaths, etc.).
Then an exceptional event occurred in this ancient Furthermore, biomass can be considerable in the
ocean: the emergence of sexuality – first in sea: just the bacteria in the sub-surface layer of
prokaryotes, later in eukaryotes. This proved vital for the ocean accounts for over 10% of all carbon
the explosion of biodiversity. Sexual reproduction biomass of the planet. The marine environment
allows for genetic mixing, generating new traits, has played a key role in the history of life, and the
and unprecedented diversity. All individuals are ocean today still has a vital role in the evolution
different. A population equipped with sexuality of life and the climate.
evolves much faster. In addition, the prevalence
of sexuality encourages the development of an
«arms race» among parasites and their hosts: Co-
PARTICULARITIES OF MARINE
evolution, molecular dialogue, and genetic mixing
eventually allow for faster «disarmament» of the BIODIVERSITY
parasite and a sexual selection, very different from
natural selection. Marine biodiversity is very special. The recognized
species diversity in the oceans does not exceed
The physical consequences of osmotic flux (water 13% of all living species currently described
and electrolytes) in the marine environment led – less than 250,000. This is very little, and may
living organisms to two types of strategies: be explained by two things. The first is that our
1. In the vast majority of cases – from the knowledge, especially for deep zones and for
first initial cell to shellfish – an intracellular, microorganisms, various bacteria and protists is still
isosmotic regulation provided living organisms, only very partial, so we significantly underestimate
separated from seawater by a biological oceanic biodiversity. New techniques, such as
membrane, the same osmotic pressure (about coupling between flow cytometry and molecular
1,000 mOsm.l-1) on the inside (intracellular probes, are allowing us to discover extraordinary
milieu and extracellular “interior”) as that of biological diversity. At present, widespread
the seawater outside. sequencing of the ocean water mass, «random
2. Later on, starting with arthropods, extracellular genome sequencing» (C. Venter, sequencing
anisosmotic regulation developed, where of all the DNA in a volume of filtered seawater)
cellular and internal fluids are much less provides data that seems to be mostly unknown.
concentrated (3 to 400 mOsm.l-1) than sea The Tara Oceans expedition’s circumnavigation
water. of the world’s oceans provides us with valuable
information on the abundance and variety
The perpetual drinking behavior at sea, found of viruses, bacteria and mainly protists. For all
in bony fish for example, associated with very prokaryotes and very small eukaryotes, molecular

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approaches (sequencing of 16S or 18S ribosomal on only a few km². No examples of marine species
RNA among others) bring surprising new with such limitations are known. The enormous
information every day. Moreover, and this is the variety of marine modes of reproduction also
second reason, it’s clear that marine ecosystems take advantage of the phenomena of dispersion
and species living in a continuous medium, in water masses: males and females are not
through the dispersal of gametes and larval always obliged to be close! Thus, connectivity
stages, are less predisposed to strict endemism and many fewer variations in environmental
than in terrestrial habitats. There are many factors create the great stability of the open sea,
more barriers and favorable speciation isolates and the very specific characteristics of marine
(the evolutionary process by which new living biodiversity. Coastal and intermediate systems
species appear) on land than at sea. This results in with strong terrigenous influences are subject to
significant differences in species diversity: marine much greater variations.
ecological niches offshore do not approach the
richness of land niches – much more fragmented Finally, let’s not forget that biodiversity is much
and encouraging greater speciation. The stability more than just species diversity, including both
of the open ocean, at least for the past 100 the species and their relative abundance. The
million years, is quite extraordinary: pH, osmotic meaning of the word «biodiversity» has been
pressure and, salinity, temperature, hydrostatic variously explained, but overall it expresses «the
pressures of the depths, dissolved gas content. genetic information contained in each basic unit
Human activities are changing all this, and we will of diversity, whether of an individual, a species
discuss this later. This stability is generating fewer or a population.» This determines its history, past,
new species. In contrast, marine biomass can be present and future. What’s more, this story is de-
considerable: the performance of phytoplankton termined by processes that are themselves com-
alone (in its ability to renew itself) can account ponents of biodiversity. In fact, today we group
for more than 50% of the planet’s productivity. together various approaches under this term:
Today there are 5 to 7 times more identified taxa 1. The basic biological mechanisms that explain
on land than at sea. We can of course wonder diversity of species and their characteristics
about this, since initially life was exclusively and force us to further investigate the
marine before organisms left the ocean, several mechanisms of speciation and the evolution.
times in different places and different forms 2. More recent and promising approaches
(around 450Ma for complex metazoans). The in functional ecology and bio-complexity,
great Permian-Triassic extinction played a key including the study of matter and energy
role, with 96% extinction of species, both marine flows, and the major bio-geochemical cycles.
and on land (around 251Ma). The explosion 3. Research on things in nature considered
of flowering plant species, insects, and many “useful” to humanity, providing food, or
other groups on Earth (around 130-110Ma) was highly valuable substances for medicines,
decisive after the initial radiations (explosions cosmetics, molecular probes, or to provide
in species from a single ancestor) beginning in ancient and innovative models for basic and
the Devonian and especially the Carboniferous. applied research, in order to solve agronomic
Coevolution between plants and pollinators, and and biomedical issues, and finally.
the appearance of an infinite number of new 4. The implementation of conservation strategies
niches have often been proposed to explain to preserve and maintain our planet’s natural
the acceleration of speciation in continental heritage which is the birthright of future
environments during this period. It is also clear generations.
that the dispersion of sexual products and
larvae in the sea plays an important role in the Humans have been fishing in this biodiversity since
distribution of species and current bio-geography. ancient times, probably for tens of thousands of
Endemism is much more limited in the open sea, years. As soon as they reached the coasts, humans
due to the stability and continuity of this gigantic started collecting seafood, shells and algae, and
environment. On land we often find species living catching fish. Just as they do agriculture on land,

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humans have been raising certain marine species first 3 meters of the ocean store as much energy
on the coasts for at least 4,000 years (Egypt, as the entire atmosphere, and the ocean has
China, etc.). The exploitation of renewable, huge thermal inertia and dynamic capabilities. This
living aquatic resources is booming, but with action of redistributing water masses by carrying
serious concerns about its sustainability. The warm water from the tropics to the poles (and vice
latest figures available from the FAO in 2013 (for versa) is fundamental. The deep ocean plays a
the year 2012) gave values of 79.9 million tonnes significant role in these capacities for storing and
(Mt) for marine fisheries, 11,5Mt for continental releasing heat. This huge reservoir of heat gives
fisheries, 19 Mt for algae (including only 1Mt for the ocean an extraordinary role in moderating
harvesting at sea), and 65.6 Mt for aquaculture climate variations. It controls the formation of
(including 20.3Mt at sea). The grand total – for wind and rain. The ocean traps and stores CO2,
all groups and all aquatic environments – was thereby preventing an extreme greenhouse
about 176Mt. The ocean is not only these living effect in the atmosphere. But as a result, the
resources. There are also about 25,000 molecules ocean becomes acidic, due to the production
of pharmacological or cosmetic interest, and of carbonic acid. Oceanic phytoplankton also
some extraordinary, extremely relevant models stores CO2 in the surface layer, as do all the bio-
for scientific research, with potential biomedical calcifiers. Ocean circulation redistributes heat and
and agricultural applications. Key molecules of salinity – both important factors in controlling the
carcinogenesis have been discovered thanks to climate machine. Currents along the eastern and
sea urchins and sea stars, the molecular basis of western borders of the continents are critical, and
memory thanks to a sea slug and the transmission fluctuations in the past led to the alternation of
of nerve impulses thanks to the squid. glacial periods.

The ocean plays a vital role on the climate, but

OCEAN AND CLIMATE the loss of biodiversity and also pollution affect
the ocean and cause conditions for climate
The ocean and the atmosphere are intimately
change. The amount of carbon dioxide in the
connected and exchange energy in the form of
atmosphere and in the ocean is increasing.
heat and humidity. The ocean absorbs heat much
Average temperatures of air in the lower layer
more readily than ice or land surfaces, and stores
of the atmosphere – near the land surface and
energy much more efficiently. It returns the heat
near the ocean’s surface – are rising. And average
more slowly than the continents, and contributes
sea level is rising faster than ever since the end of
to the more temperate climate of coastal areas.
the last ice age. Rapid changes in the chemical
The ocean is thus a formidable regulator of
composition of sea water have a harmful effect
climate. Changes in energy balance between
on ocean ecosystems that are already stressed
atmosphere and ocean play an important role in
by overfishing and pollution.
climate change. Ocean circulation is affected by
atmospheric circulation, and surface currents are
Climate change has a direct role in the loss of
dependent on the winds. Winds mix the surface
biological diversity, but this loss contributes in turn to
waters down to the thermocline, below which
the very problem! Biodiversity loss severely affects
the basic forces of circulation are related to
climate change! Phytoplanktonic chains in the sea
temperature and salinity, influencing the density of
are deeply influenced by climate change and their
water. The ocean contributes to the huge amounts
changes affect in return the capacity of the ocean
of energy released at the genesis of storms and
to dissolve CO2. Moreover, let’s not forget that the
cyclones, affecting both continents and human
effects of rapid climate change are added to
populations. Upwellings – cold water coming
other severe problems: destruction and pollution
up from the depths near the coasts – are rich
of the coasts, accelerating systematic exploitation
in nutrients, profoundly altering coastal climates;
of living resources, and the uncontrolled spread
taking into account their fluctuations is essential
of species (including from the ballasts of large
for understanding the climate system. Just the
ships). That’s a lot for biodiversity to handle!

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Denis Bailly,

Ecosystem
Rémi Mongruel,
Emmanuelle Quillérou

Services
and Marine
Conservation
Marine and land ecosystems provide many benefits to society. Marine ecosystems are under
increased pressure because of climate change, expanding human populations and needs.
Increased pressures and associated impacts on ecosystems often render current management
and conservation policies inappropriate to mitigate or regulate such pressures and maintain the
level of ecosystem benefits provided. Integrated approaches centred on ecosystems can help
assess synergies and trade offs for delivery of benefits provided by ecosystems for management
options with different levels of usage and conservation. The ecosystem service framework can
help structure the production of comprehensive assessments drawing from multi-disciplinary
academic knowledge and management experience. Interaction and dialogue with stakeholders
structured by a step-wise iterative ‘triage’ process can help ensure ecosystem assessment outputs
are meaningful, salient (reflecting the interests of those involved), useful to management and
policy concerns, needs and projects, and feasible under available knowledge and resources.
The ecosystem service framework needs to be applied at regular intervals to gain an idea of how
the benefits derived from ecosystems evolve in time. Using the ecosystem service framework in
combination with the DPSIR framework to identify Drivers, Pressures, States, Impact, Response can
provide very rich insights to discussions for establishment of management plans and policies for
marine conservation, especially those aiming to mitigate or adapt to climate change pressure,
for delivery of healthy ecosystems and associated human well-being.

Healthy marine and land ecosystems provide a (Ocean and Climate, 2015). Expanding needs of
wide range of benefits to society such as food, increasing human populations is one of the drivers
materials, recreation, carbon regulation etc. of unsustainable levels of exploitation of marine
Marine ecosystems are changing fast under ecosystems, and their many fish stock overfished.
increased and increasing pressures and impacts The ocean supports increasingly diverse needs, with
from climate change and increasing human competition for access to marine resources and
populations with expanding needs. Sea level rise, use of the marine space for recreation and tourism,
ocean acidification, eutrophication, change in shipping, deep sea mining, renewable marine
water temperature and coastal weather patterns energies (e.g., offshore wind turbines), in addition
directly impact, often negatively, wild fish stocks to subsistence and commercial fishing, The benefits
and aquaculture production, coastal infrastructures provided by marine ecosystems are shrinking fast in
generating maintenance, and recreational activities places under such pressures.

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Management decisions and ecosystem marine ecosystems to our children for their own
conservation policies are very often not enjoyment, or simply from knowing that healthy
designed in a flexible enough way to allow marine ecosystems simply exist.
for appropriate adaptation to changing
circumstances such as changing ecosystems, A range of scientific methods and approaches
pressures, and human needs and impacts. has been established in the literature to
Changing pressures and needs consequently help assess different management options
render current management and conservation and provide a basis for managers and
policies inappropriate to effectively mitigate or policy-makers to make informed decisions.
regulate such pressures and maintain the level Operational application of such methods and
of benefits provided by healthy ecosystems. approaches for marine ecosystem can be
Tensions and conflicts arising between based on a common ecosystem approach
ecosystem users are generally more acute for for establishment of structured ecosystem
higher levels of competition to satisfy human assessment outputs using the comprehensive
needs and impacts. They can be exacerbated ecosystem service framework. A ‘triage
by inappropriate management decisions and process’ structuring interaction and dialogue
policies. Management decisions and policies, between researchers and managers can ensure
on the other hand, have the potential to provision of information pertinent to decisions
conciliate tensions and conflicts to certain involving trade offs between ecosystems and
extent. Management decisions and policies are human needs or between different types of
social constructs that not only influence tensions human needs.
and conflicts but their design is also influenced
by such tensions and conflicts.
ECOSYSTEM APPROACH FOR
Healthy ecosystems are often a necessary CROSS-SECTORAL ASSESSMENT
condition to achieving sustainable development,
OF ECOSYSTEMS
i.e. “development that meets the needs of present
generations without compromising the ability of
The ecosystem approach has become very
future generations to meet their own needs”
popular over the past decade as a harmonised
(Bruntland, 1987). The challenge we are facing
way to conceptualise management
now is to ensure conservation of healthy marine
problems that involve natural ecosystems. The
ecosystems in a highly dynamic environment
International Council for the Exploration of the
so as to meet future as well as current needs.
Sea (ICES) defines the ecosystem approach
Establishment of marine protected areas is one
for application to marine ecosystems as “the
possible option to help protect rich and healthy
comprehensive integrated management of
ecosystems, which could be complemented by
human activities based on best available
other instruments to effectively mitigate drivers and
scientific knowledge about the ecosystem
pressures. ‘Blue growth’ and the ‘blue economy’ -
and its dynamics, in order to identify and take
mirroring ‘green growth’ and the ‘green economy’
action on influences which are critical to the
- are seen as possible ways to foster sustainable
health of the marine ecosystems, thereby
development of human activities related to the
achieving sustainable use of ecosystem goods
marine environment. ‘Blue businesses’ have the
and services and maintenance of ecosystem
potential to advance human well-being with job
integrity” (ICES, 2005, emphasis added). Previous
and value-added creation, and investment into
management approaches were mostly sectoral
maintaining healthy marine ecosystems or restoring
with human activities considered independently.
degraded marine ecosystems. The concept
Such sectoral approaches however proved
of ‘blue economy’ goes beyond the value
inappropriate when dealing with global cross-
creation by businesses (blue growth) to include
sector phenomena such as climate change
non market benefits derived from recreation in
and fail to capture trade offs between different
marine ecosystems, from bequeathing healthy

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human activities competing for resources from or benefits include the value societies allocate to
access to the same ecosystem. The ecosystem knowing healthy ecosystems exist (existence
approach considers together ecosystems and value), to bequeathing healthy ecosystems to
the associated human activities and trade future generations (bequest value) or to good
offs, and is therefore suited to comprehensive ‘stewardship’ of ecosystems (stewardship
integrated assessment of ecosystems for value). This forms part of what economists call
different management and policy options for the ‘Total Economic Value” which encompasses
input into decision-making processes. both market and non-market components
to capture the ‘true’ value of ecosystems to
The ecosystem approach was first elaborated by society through increased welfare and not just
ecologists concerned by critical environmental increased profits.
problems and was formalised in the 1970s for
the purpose of political advising (Mongruel Estimation of such ‘inclusive’ numbers through
and Beaumont, 2015). It is established at the economic valuation methods, however, tends
junction of ecology and economics with to be highly time- and effort-consuming and
human activities linked to ‘energy flows’ within requires a lot of specific skills and capacity.
and between ecosystems (thermodynamics). Such ‘global’ numbers aggregate a lot of
The ecosystem approach is at the heart of a different elements together using money as a
relatively recent sub-branch of economics, ‘common measuring rod’. This limits their ability
ecological economics, which conceptualises to inform management actions, especially at
the economy as a sub-component of the more local level where finer detail is often
ecosystems, in contrast to previous economic needed than one single number. Depending on
conceptualisations (Biely, 2014). Natural the specific context, alternative more flexible
scientists and economists have joined their methods may be more suited for local-level
efforts in order to estimate the (socio-economic) assessment. For example, multi-criteria analysis
“value” of ecosystems (Gómez-Baggethun et allows for combination of quantitative and
al., 2010). The most representative example of qualitative information, measured in monetary
such collaboration is possibly the paper entitled values and physical units, over a range of
“The value of the world’s ecosystem services different academic disciplines and ‘on-the-
and natural capital” (Costanza et al., 1997). ground’ experience. Such a method can be
Estimates of socio-economic values of several used as a way to integrate different kinds of
ecosystems have been recently updated knowledge and usually matches well the way
(Costanza et al., 2014). The estimated value of people themselves integrate knowledge and
marine ecosystems, inclusive of open oceans take decisions.
and coastal areas, is USD 796/ha/yr1 in 1997
and USD 1,368/ha/yr in 2011 (Costanza et al.,
THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICE
2014). Total socio-economic value of marine
ecosystems is estimated to USD 49.7 trillion/yr in FRAMEWORK AS A
2011, i.e. about 2/3 of the global gross national
COMPREHENSIVE ‘COMMON
product (around USD 75.2 trillion/yr).
LANGUAGE’ TO STRUCTURE
Such global studies and numbers have had a
ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENTS
great role and impact for raising awareness of
decision-makers and policy-makers of the need
The ecosystem approach is associated with an
to include non-market benefits of ecosystems
operational framework, the ecosystem service
and adopt a broader perspective than short-
framework. The framework was popularised and
term financial interests. Such non-market
formally established within the decision-making
sphere by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
1 All numbers from Costanza et al. (2014) are expressed in (2005). The framework provides a non-
2007 USD.

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Operationalising the ecosystem service framework and ‘triage process’: VALMER project as an example
(adapted from Mongruel and Beaumont, 2015)

“The VALMER framework for the operational assessment of marine and coastal ecosystem services provides a
structure to guide practitioners in undertaking comprehensive, transparent and appropriate marine ecosys-
tem services assessments. It does not, however, provide a set of rigid and prescriptive rules that are applicable in
their entirety to all circumstances. Marine ecosystem service assessments are context dependent, as the needs
of managers and stakeholders, the services about which they are concerned, and the resources available for
the assessment are highly variable. This necessitates a flexible guidance framework.”

Table 1 details some of the ecosystem services that were identified as part of the project to facilitate their as-
sessment and valuation in economic terms. Table 2 shows an example of assessment based on expert opinion
structured along different ecosystem services.

Marine Ecosystem Services Specific components

Food provision Fisheries and aquaculture
Water storage and provision Industrial use of sea water
Specific com-
ponents Medicinal sector
Biotic materials and biofuels Energy resources
'Ornamental resources
Water purification Treatment of human waste
Air quality regulation Absorption of pollutant
Coastal protection Natural defence
Regulation Climate regulation Carbon sequestration
and mainte-
nance services Weather regulation No example found
Ocean nourishment Nutrient and organic matters
Life cycle maintenance Maintenance of habitats
Biological regulation No example found
Heritage
Symbolic and aesthetic values
Aesthetic value
Cultural ser- Recreational activities (non market activities)
vices Recreation and tourism Recreational fishing
Tourism industry (market activities)
Cognitive effects (education and research)

Table 1 — Marine ecosystem assessment (adapted from Mongruel and Beaumont, 2015, Table 6
pages 17-18).

Likely use of value in Potential vor falue Influence of

Feasibility
policy decisions to change external factors
Saltmarsh creation
Water quality
Fish habitat
Disturbance
Atlantic Array
High Medium Low

Table 2 — Scores in each category (last 4 columns) for the shortlisted management concerns (first
column) based on expert opinion (Mongruel and Beaumont, 2015, Table 8, page 32).

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prescriptive basis to establish a comprehensive regulate climate variation. The ecosystem

ecosystem assessment based on the services service frameworks allows for explicit trade
ecosystems provide. It divides ecosystem offs between different processes underlying
services into four mutually exclusive categories: ecosystem services. Mangrove forests in a
provisioning services, regulating services, cultural coastal ecosystem have been in some cases
services and supporting services. Provisioning removed to allow for increased shrimp farming
services refer to the provision by ecosystems and production, at the cost of a lower level of
of food, water, fibre, timber, fuel, minerals, protection against coastal erosion and extreme
building materials and shelter, and biodiversity weather events, such as storm winds and
and genetic resources for medicines or food floods, as well as tsunamis – i.e. an increase in
additives. Regulating services refer to the benefits provisioning service at the cost of a reduction in
derived from regulation of processes such as regulating service (Barbier and Cox, 2003).
climatic events (storm protection), carbon
storage and sequestration, water flows (floods The advantage of the ecosystem service
and droughts), water purification, pollution and framework is that it is comprehensive, generic
waste treatment, soil erosion, nutrient cycling, and flexible enough for customisation to specific
regulation of human diseases, and biological assessment contexts. The different categories
control. Cultural services include aesthetic, of ecosystem services can easily be replaced
spiritual, educational, and recreational aspects by context-specific examples and vocabulary
and are mainly experienced through tourism or adapted to different audiences, especially those
religious practices. Supporting services include not used to working with the framework (Table 1).
primary production, soil formation, and nutrient It is necessary to link identification of ecosystem
cycling. The first three types of services are more services to ecosystems functions, building up
directly linked to financial flows. Supporting from ecological knowledge and allowing
services tend to be captured in other ecosystem integration of a social science perspective
services (e.g., high fish stocks depend in part on identifying well-being variations stemming
good nutrient cycling). Contrary to the other from changes in the functioning or structure of
types of services, supporting services are often ecosystems. The ecosystem service framework
not valued in economic terms when necessary can provide a useful framework for researchers
for supply of other ecosystem services, which and practitioners to build up an ecosystem
could lead to count the same economic value assessment. Such ecosystem assessment can
twice (as a supporting service, and as a part of be used as part of informed decision-making
another type of ecosystem service). processes to balance ecosystem conservation
with economic development according to
These ecosystem services collectively provide society’s preferences.
the basis of human well-being. As such, all these
types of ecosystem services have an economic
MAKING ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT
value, more or less well captured by market
prices and considered with varying degrees MEANINGFUL, SALIENT, USEFUL,
in individual or collective decision-making
AND FEASIBLE USING A STEP-
processes. Such a framework helps identify
services that are not – or not fully – valued WISE ITERATIVE APPROACH
in economic or social terms, which creates
OR ‘TRIAGE PROCESS’
incentives for overexploitation or degradation
of ecosystems.
Assessment processes that involve stakeholders
or decision-makers can help ensure ecosystem
Climate change affects the level and nature
assessment is conducted so as to be
of provision of these ecosystem services,
meaningful, salient (reflecting the interests
while regulating ecosystem services such as
of those involved), useful to management
carbon storage and sequestration can help

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and policy concerns, needs and projects, co-construction of ecosystem assessment that is
and feasible under available knowledge and deemed relevant and appropriate.
resources, thereby ensuring output relevance
to discussions around ecosystem management The ‘triage process’ can be combined with
and policy. Involvement of decision-makers and the ecosystem service framework at each
stakeholders in ecosystem assessment processes of the three stages. Such a ‘triage process’
tend to increase likelihood that the outputs from for structuring assessment processes can
such assessments will be actually used. be applied in a flexible and iterative way,
sometimes requiring a highly skilled facilitator
There are several models for structuring for the discussions. Such an approach allows
ecosystem assessment processes, all built around for data gaps and uncertainty, which can be
the same three stages, with variations between reduced through dialogue with stakeholders.
models and their application stemming from Such an approach helps foster collaboration
the range of possible choices at each stage. A between scientists from different disciplinary
‘triage process’ encompassing three transparent background and identify the ‘best expert for the
and successive stages has been developed to job’ depending on the issue at stake – ecologists
support operational marine management as having a greater weight in conducting the
part of the “Valuing ecosystem services in the assessment when the issue is linked to supply
western Channel (VALMER)” project funded by of ecosystem services whereas social scientists
the European Union (http://www.valmer.eu) stepping in mainly for issues linked to demand
(Pendleton et al., forthcoming): for ecosystem services.

i. idefining the aims and scope of the

CONCLUSION
assessment, often overlooked, to ensure it
is meaningful and salient;
Ecosystem service framework and ‘triage
ii. selecting the ecosystem services to
process’ can be combined for meaningful,
be assessed based on three criteria
salient, useful and feasible ecosystem
(perceptions of current trends, influence of
assessment. Assessment format is adapted to
management intervention, and influence
needs from managers and decision-makers and
of other factors), with clear identification
integrates very different types of knowledge
of synergies and trade-offs between
as well as knowledge from very different
ecosystem services provided, to ensure
disciplines, reflecting the way managers and
assessment is useful; and
policy-makers function. Such knowledge-based
iii. choosing the assessment method
integrated participatory ecosystem assessment
(e.g., measures of ecological output,
requires a high level of collaboration between
economic impact, total economic value
academic disciplines, especially environmental
etc.). Because of the decomposition of
sciences and social sciences and building
an ecosystem into different ecosystem
strong partnerships with managers and decision-
services, the ecosystem service framework
makers.
can help at the third stage of the ‘triage
process’ with different assessment methods
The ecosystem service framework needs to be
used for different ecosystem services.
applied at regular intervals to gain an idea of
how the benefits derived from ecosystems
The ‘triage process’ takes a strategic decision-
evolve in time. This goes back to the idea
making approach with decisions at each
that we need iterative processes in line with a
stage made after discussions between
changing environment, changing drivers and
researchers, decision-makers, practitioners and/
changing pressures. Mitigation and regulation
or stakeholders. Its implementation can assist in
management and policies target drivers and
identifying methodologies, scale and scope for
pressures of change, which are not the specific

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focus of the ecosystem service framework. plans and policies for marine conservation, or
Using the ecosystem service framework and adaptation of current management practices
‘triage process’ in combination with the DPSIR and policies. Keeping management choices
framework based on identification of Drivers, and policies flexible and allowing for integration
Pressures, States, Impact, Response and how of lessons learnt over time by design is key for
they relate together can provide very rich insights successful delivery of healthy ecosystems and
to discussions. Iterative assessment capturing associated human well-being in a changing
evolutions and changes can provide a basis to environment, and even more importantly at the
inform the establishment of new management global level under climate change.

REFERENCES

• BARBIER E. and COX M., 2003 – Does Economic Development Lead to Mangrove Loss ? A Cross Country Analysis.
Contemporary economic policy, 21 (4), 418-432.
• BIELY, K., 2014 – Environmental And Ecological Economics : Two Approaches in Dealing With Economy-Environment
Interrelations and the Example of the Economics of Land Degradation Initiative. Masters thesis. University of
Vienna, http://ubdata.univie.ac.at/AC11451272, 272 pages.
• BRUNTLAND, G. (ed), 1987 – Our Common Future. Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development.
Oxford, UK : Oxford University Press.
• COSTANZA R., D’ARGE R., de GROOT R., FARBER S., GRASSO M., HANNON B., LIMBURG K., NAEEM S., O’NEIL R.,
PARUELO J., RASKIN R., SUTTON P. and VAN DEN BELT M., 1997 – The Value of the World’s Ecosystem Services and
Natural Capital, Nature, 387, 253-260.
• COSTANZA R., de GROOT R., SUTTON P., VAN DER PLOEG S., ANDERSON S.J., KUBISZEWSKI I., FARBER S. and TURNER
R.K., 2014 – Changes in the Global Value of Ecosystem Services. Global Environmental Change, 26 : 152-158.
• GÓMEZ-BAGGETHUN E., DE GROOT R., LOMAS P.L. and MONTES C., 2010 – The History of Ecosystem Services in
Economic Theory and Practice : from Early Notions to Markets and Payment Schemes. Ecological Economics.
69 : 1209-1218.
• ICES, 2005 – Guidance on the Application of the Ecosystem Approach to Management of Human Activities in
the European Marine Environment. ICES Cooperative Research Report no. 273, 22 pages.
• MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT, 2005 – Ecosystems and Human Well-Being. Geneva, Switzerland : World
Health Organization.
• MONGRUEL R. and BEAUMONT N. (coordinators), 2015 – A Framework for the Operational Assessment of Marine
Ecosystem Services. Contributors : HOOPER T. LEVREL H., SOMERFIELD P., THIÉBAUT É., LANGMEAD O. and CHARLES
M., March 2015, www.valmer.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/A-framework-for-the-operational-assessment-
of-marine-ecosystem-services.pdf, 80 pages.
• OCÉAN ET CLIMAT, 2015 – Fiches scientifiques. www. ocean-climate. org.
• PENDLETON, L., MONGRUEL, R., BEAUMONT, N., HOOPER, T. and CHARLES, M. – A Triage Approach to Improve
the Relevance of Marine Ecosystem Services Assessments. Marine Ecological Progress Series, forthcoming.

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Coral Reefs
Denis Allemand

and Climate
Change
Coral reefs are found in only a small percentage of global oceans, between 0.08 and
0.16,%, but they shelter about one third of the marine species known today. This ecological
success is due to a symbiosis between a coral and an intracellular microalgae, commonly
called zooxanthellae. “Organismic engineers”, they are the source of the largest biological
constructions on the planet. Genuine oases of life, they support the direct sustenance of
more than 500 million people in the world from fishing, but they engage human interest also
for other reasons: protection of coasts against erosion, high value tourist areas… Ecological
services from coral reefs are estimated at approximately 30 billion USD per year. Their growth
depends on many factors (light, temperature, pH, nutrients, turbidity…). They are therefore
extremely sensitive to the current changes in our environment: water temperature variability,
ocean acidification, in addition to localized disruptions (pollution, sedimentation, coastal
development, overfishing, marine shipping…). An increase of less than 1 degree above
a threshold value is sufficient to cause bleaching. It breaks the coral symbiosis with their
zooxanthellae throughout the populations, leading to the disappearance of the reef. Similarly,
ocean acidification impedes the formation of a coral’s skeletons, and many other biological
functions such as reproduction. We actually estimate that approximately 20% of the global
coral reefs have already disappeared completely; 25% are in high danger; and 25% more
will be threatened by 2050 if positive management action is not taken.

WHAT IS A CORAL REEF?

The total area covered by coral reefs varies,
depending on the calculation methods, between
Coral reefs are ecosystems typically found
284,300km² (Smith, 1978) and 617,000km² (Spalding
in shallow waters of the intertropical zone
et al., 2001), therefore covering between 0.08 and
(approximately between 33° North and 30°
South). The three-dimensional architecture of this 0.16% of the surface of the ocean. French reefs
ecosystem is formed by the buildup of calcareous alone cover an area of 55,557km².
skeletons of marine organisms called reef-building
corals (Cnidaria, Scleractinia). They are cemented The largest reef is the Great Barrier Reef which
together by the biological activity of calcareous runs along the north-eastern coast of Northern
organisms (macroalgae, sponges, worms, Australia over a distance of 2300 km. It is known
molluscs…). Corals are named «engineering as the only animal construction visible from space.
organisms», while the reef is considered «biogenic» The second largest reef is French New Caledonia
because it is the result of biological activity. Coral Barrier, which is 1600 km long. These two barrier
reefs therefore represent ecosystems that have reefs have been included in the UNESCO World
been built by their own inhabitants. Heritage list (respectively in 1981 and 2008).

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Coral reefs come in different shapes and sizes, included in the Order of Scleractinians (subclass
the first published description dating from Charles Hexacorallia, class Anthozoa of phylum Cnidaria).
Darwin during his voyage on the Beagle (Darwin, Among the Scleractinia, about half the amount
1842): of species (about 660 out of 1,482 species
• Fringing reefs: They follow the coastline, known to date, Cairns, 1999) are involved in reef
maintaining an active growth area offshore construction. These are called hermatypic. They
and an accumulation of dead coral inshore, consist of polyps of variable sizes, depending
forming a platform reef that over time turns on the species, and form functional units. Each
into a lagoon. polyp has a mouth surrounded by tentacles. The
• Barrier reefs: the fringing reef becomes a polyps are connected to each other by network
barrier reef subsequent to the progressive of cavities, the coelenteron, which covers the
sinking of an island. In this way, the lagoon coral tissue. The whole assemblage is known as
becomes larger and the reef can can colonial (even though the colony functions as a
extend to 1km from the coast. single organism) while individual corals are called
• Atolls: these are the ultimate step in the modular animals. They present various shapes
evolution of a reef, where the island has and sizes, depending on whether the species
completely disappeared below the sea are branching coral, blade coral, encrusting, or
surface. Atolls preserve the initial circular massive coral for example, and show growth rates
shape of the island. There are approximately that can exceed 15cm per year of axial growth
400 atolls in the world. in their natural environment (Dullo, 2005). The size
of certain massive corals may even exceed 6m
Reef growth is approximatively 4kg of calcium in diameter.
carbonate (CaCO3) per m² per year (Smith &
Kinsey, 1976), but values can vary considerably The degree of success for a reef to develop and
from one reef to another, in some cases reaching to thrive is mainly related to the capability of
up to 35kg CaCO3/m²/year (Barnes & Chalker, the majority of scleractinian corals (just under
1990), i.e. a vertical annual growth rate of 1 900 species, Michel Pichon, Comm. Pers.) to
to 7mm. Many factors influence these growth establish a mutual symbiosis with photosynthetic
rates: light, temperature (optimal between 22° dinoflagellates commonly called zooxanthellae
and 29°C), nutrients, currents, turbidity, pH and (e.g. Symbiodinium sp.). These microalgae
the saturation state of calcium carbonate in the reside inside the coral’s gastroderm, isolated
seawater… from the animal’s cytoplasm by a perisymbiotic
membrane that regulates the exchanges
The formation of calcium carbonate by reef- between the symbionts and the host (Furla et
building organisms causes the release of carbon al., 2011 for a review). These two partners have
co-evolved since the Triassic (Muscatine et al.,
dioxide into the surrounding environment.
2005), developing unique abilities (e.g. the ability
Hence, contrary to past belief, a reef mainly
for the hosts to actively absorb CO2 and nutrients
dominated by coral acts as a minor source
and to protect themselves from ultraviolet rays,
and not as a sink of CO2 (about 1.5mmol CO2/
hyperoxia and oxidative stress; the ability of the
m² day. Tambutté et al., 2011 for a review).
algal symbiont to exchange nutrients with its host;
Nevertheless, reefs still do play an important role
Furla et al., 2005, 2011). Due to the presence of
as a carbon sink (as CaCO3), with rates of the
zooxanthellae, the distribution of corals at depth
order of 70 to 90 million tonnes of carbon per
is dependent upon light availability (generally
year (Frankignoulle & Gattuso, 1993).
between 0 and 30m depth). By means of
modern sequencing techniques, a large diversity
CORALS, AT THE ORIGIN OF THE REEF in bacteria has been identified inside corals.
These bacteria appear to play an important
Reefs are mainly built by corals. Formerly known physiological role. The entire community of these
as stony corals, reef-building corals are now living organisms forms a functional unit called a

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holobiont, often referred to as a super-organism. coral, encrusting calcareous algae…). The

Symbiont photosynthesis is also related to coralligenous in the Mediterranean form
another function of coral, biomineralization, that a very rich coastal ecosystem, especially
is, its ability to build a limestone or biomineral along underwater cliffs. It is of particular
skeleton. The property of a biomineral is that interest both for fishing and aquatic tourism
it is a composite material, comprising both a (RAC/SPA 2003).
mineral fraction and an organic fraction. Even
though the latter is minimal (<1% by weight),
THE CORAL REEF: A BIODIVERSITY
it plays a key role in controlling the deposition
of calcium carbonate in the form of aragonite HOT-SPOT
(German et al., 2011, Tambutté et al., 2008,
2011). Using mechanisms that are still a matter of The ability to live in symbiosis with dinoflagellates
debate, light, via symbiont photosynthesis, has has allowed coral reefs to build large
been observed to stimulate the calcification of constructions in usually oligotrophic conditions,
coral by a factor reaching 127 in comparison to that is, nutrient-poor waters. Coral reefs have
night calcification. However, in most cases, this existed since the Triassic, about 200 million years
factor varies between 1 and 5, with an average ago. However, since that time there have been
value of 4 (Gattuso et al., 1999). many phases of disappearance/reappearance.
The development of the Great Barrier Reef seems
Coral reproduction is typically sexual and to have begun 20 million years ago. However,
involves a larval stage called planula which primitive forms that are different from modern
ensures the species dispersal. They can also corals, have existed long before the Triassic,
have a high asexual reproductive capacity by during the Devonian about 400 million years ago.
fragmentation. This capacity is utilized in the
development of ex situ cultures. Coral reefs are home to the greatest biodiversity
on Earth with 32 of the 34 animal phyla known
to date and include a third of marine species
CORAL AND CORALS known so far, representing nearly 100,000 species
(Porter & Tougas, 2001). Hence, 30% of the known
The world Coral entails a plurality of species marine biodiversity is sheltered in less than 0.2%
belonging to the phylum of Cnidaria and forms of the total surface of the oceans! In the marine
the basis of several ecosystems: environment, they therefore represent the
equivalent of the primary tropical forests. For
• Cold-water corals, also called deep-sea comparison, the number of species of molluscs
corals: these corals belong to the same found on 10 m² of reef in the South Pacific is
order of cnidarians as reef-building corals. greater than what has been acknowledged
They are engineering organisms, capable throughout the whole North Sea. As another
of building a rich ecosystem that provides example, in New Caledonia there are over 400
habitat for many other creatures in the species of coastal nudibranchs while in mainland
deep waters of the Atlantic, Pacific, as France there is a dozen species for an equivalent
well as the Mediterranean Sea. Unlike their coastline.
surface water cousins, they are acclimated
to cold waters (6° -14°C) and do not host This «biodiversity» is however not homogeneous
photosynthetic algae. These reefs therefore between reefs. Indeed, there is a skewed
play a significant role as shelters and nursery distribution of the diversity and abundance
areas for many species of fish of commercial of corals between the Atlantic and Pacific
interest (Roberts et al., 2009). Oceans, as well as within these oceans. In these
• The coralligenous in the Mediterranean: two oceans, the diversity and abundance are
they are formed by an assemblage of concentrated in the western parts: the Coral
stationary creatures (e.g. gorgonians, red Triangle (also called « Centre for Coral Biodiversity

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«) in the Pacific, including the -Indonesia Malaysia or fertilizers for agricultural land. Coral reefs
- Philippines - China Sea - Solomon Islands region; in the Maldives thus supply about 20,000m3
the Caribbean in the Atlantic. There is also a of material annually (Moberg & Folke, 1999).
strong east-west longitudinal gradient. The fauna • Live Resources: beyond fishing for food
and flora associated with reefs generally follow needs, reefs also represent a fishing reserve
similar gradients. for coral reef aquariology (15 million fish per
year for 2 million aquarists in the world) and
pearl farming, etc.
THE CORAL REEF: AN EXCEPTIONAL
WEALTH FOR MANKIND 2. Conservation
• Coastal Protection: coral reefs have an
Coral reefs border the coasts of more than undeniable role in the protection of coastline
80 countries across the world (Sheppard et al., from the destructive action of waves and
2009) for which they represent an important tsunamis. More than 150,000 km of coastline
source of income, just as much in terms of food are naturally protected by barrier reefs
resources, coastal protection and tourism… (http://www.coralguardian.org). A typical
Approximately 275 million people worldwide live coral reef can absorb up to 90% of the
within 30km of a coral reef and the livelihood impact load of a wave (Wells, 2006). During
of over 500 million people directly depends on the devastating 2004 tsunami in the Indian
reefs. On one hand economists estimate that Ocean, coasts protected by healthy coral
the annual value of the benefits provided by reefs were much less affected by the deadly
the reefs is worth slightly more than 24 billion wave. The value of coastal protection
euros (Chen et al., 2015). On another hand, the against natural disasters has been estimated
TEEB report (TEEB, 2010) has estimated that the to lie between 20,000 and 27,000 euros per
destruction of coral reefs would represent a loss year per hectare of coral (TEEB, 2010). The
of about € 140 billion per year. total profit is estimated at 7 billion euros per
year (Conservation International, 2008).
The ecosystemic benefits provided by coral
reefs include: 3. Cultural resources
• Tourism: tourists are attracted to the natural
1. Natural resources beauty of coral reefs (via terrestrial tourism,
• Food: coral reefs provide 9 to 12% of the diving). The large number of visitors promotes
world catch of edible fish and 20 to 25% employment, a windfall for the poverty-
of the fish catch in developing countries stricken parts of the world. For example, the
(Moberg & Folke, 1999). This figure reaches Australian Great Barrier Reef attracts about 2
70 to 90% for the South East Asian countries million visitors annually, producing an income
(Garcia & de Leiva Moreno, 2003). The total of around 4 billion Euros for the Australian
estimated income of reef fisheries is about economy and 54,000 jobs (Biggs, 2011).
5 billion euros (Conservation International, According to estimates compiled by the TEEB
2008). Most of these fisheries are traditional, report, one hectare of coral reef represents
carried out on foot by the local population, a yearly profit of 64,000 to 80,000 Euros from
especially women and children who collect tourism and recreational opportunities.
fish, molluscs (clams), crustaceans (crabs Ecotourism alone earned 800,000 euros per
and lobsters) and sea cucumber (also year in the Caribbean. The total annual
referred to as trepang). A healthy reef is income from coral reefs is estimated around
estimated to annually provide 5 to 10 tonnes 8 billion euros (Conservation International,
of fish and invertebrates per km2. 2008).
• Mineral resources: coral reefs provide • Cultural or religious heritage: Coral reefs are
housing construction materials (Maldives, at the base of many cultural and religious
Indonesia), sand for the construction of roads traditions. In southern Kenya, for example,

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many religious rituals are structured around after the symbiosis is halted (Hoegh-Guldberg,
coral reefs in order to appease the spirits 1999; Weis & Allemand, 2009). This phenomenon,
(Moberg & Folke, 1999). whose inner mechanisms are still under debate,
• Medical resources: the numerous marine usually occurs when the temperature exceeds a
invertebrates (sponges, molluscs or soft certain threshold by 0.5°C.
corals) represent a potential supply of new
drugs for human health. Coral is also starting A second event is just as seriously affecting coral
to be used as a biological model to better biology: ocean acidification, also referred to
understand immunity or aging mechanisms as the other effect of CO2 (Doney et al., 2009).
(Moberg & Folke, 1999). Part of the excess carbon dioxide produced
by human activities dissolves into the oceans,
reducing on one hand the greenhouse effect
THE CORAL REEF: LOCAL AND (and thus reducing the increase in global
GLOBAL THREATS temperature), but on the other hand causing a
increasing acidity of the oceans, according to
The coral reef ecosystems are currently the following reaction:
threatened both locally (pollution, sedimentation,
unsustainable coastal development, nutrient H2O + CO2 HCO3- + H +
enrichment, overfishing, use of destructive
fishing methods…) and, since the 1980s, globally To date, the pH of seawater has decreased
(global warming, ocean acidification). The by about 0.1 units since the beginning of last
Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN) century (from 8.2 to 8.1) which corresponds to
estimates that at present, 19% of reefs have been an increase in the acidity of the water by about
destroyed, 15% are seriously damaged and may 30% (Gattuso & Hansson, 2011). Acidification
disappear within the next ten years, and 20% primarily affects the calcification rates of corals,
could disappear within less than 40 years. More and therefore reef growth. However, it appears
positively, 46% of the world’s reefs are still healthy that the effects vary greatly from one species
(Wilkinson, 2008). The rare monitoring studies on to another (Erez et al., 2011). The differences in
reef growth show a clear long-term decrease in sensitivity may be due to a differential ability of
coral cover: in an analysis of 2258 measurements the animal to control the pH of its calcification
from 214 reefs of the Great Barrier during the 1985- site (Holcomb et al., 2014; Venn et al., 2013).
2012 period, De’ath et al., (2012) highlighted a However the increase in dissolved CO2 has also
decline in the coral cover from 28.0% to 13.8% as been found to cause many other effects on
well as loss of 50.7% of initial coral cover. coral physiology, including the alteration of gene
expression (Moya et al., 2012; Vidal-Dupiol et al.,
Among the global events that affect coral 2013).
reefs, the increasing temperature of surface
water is causing a widespread phenomenon, Unfortunately, our present knowledge of the
coral bleaching. Unique example, visible to the physiology of these creatures is too insufficient
naked eye, of the impact of climate change to predict whether corals will be able to adapt
on an ecosystem, coral bleaching is the result to rapid changes in the environment, especially
of the rupture of the symbiosis between corals since earlier studies suggest that the combined
and zooxanthellae symbionts. Although it can be effects of the decrease in the pH with the
reversible during the first few days, this bleaching increase in temperature of the sea seem to have
effect inevitably leads to coral death a few weeks cumulative effects (Reynaud et al., 2003).

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of Scleractinian Corals. In Handbook of Biomineralization. Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH.
• TEEB, 2010– The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity Ecological and Economic Foundations.
Pushpam Kumar, Earthscan.
• VENN A. A., TAMBUTTÉ É., HOLCOMB M., LAURENT J., ALLEMAND D. et al., 2013 – Impact of Seawater
Acidification on Ph at the Tissue-Skeleton Interface and Calcification in Reef Corals. Proc Natl Acad
Sci USA 110 : 1634-1639.
• VIDAL-DUPIOL J., ZOCCOLA D., TAMBUTTÉ É., GRUNAU C., COSSEAU C.et al., 2013 – Genes Related to
Ion-Transport and Energy Production Are Upregulated in Response to CO2-Driven Ph Decrease in Corals :
New Insights from Transcriptome Analysis. PLoS One 8 : e58652.
• WEIS V. M. and ALLEMAND D., 2009 – What Determines Coral Health ? Science 324 : 1153-1155.
• WELLS S., 2006 – In The Front Line Shoreline Protection and other Ecosystem Services from Mangroves
and Coral Reefs. UNEP-WCMC Biodiversity Series 24 : 1-34.
• WELLS S., 2006 – Shoreline Protection and other Ecosystem Services from Mangroves and Coral Reefs.
UNEP-WCMC Biodiversity Series 24.

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Exploited
Philippe Cury

Marine Biodiversity
and Climate
Change
Climate change is affecting the productivity of marine ecosystems and impacting fisheries,
while the demand for fish for human consumption is increasing. Fish is the main source of animal
protein for one billion people, and is one of the renewable resources most transacted in the
world. Changes in physico-chemical characteristics of seawater affect the metabolism of
individuals, the life cycles of species, relationships between predators and prey, and modification
of habitats. Geographic distributions of fish (displacement rate towards the poles is 72.0 ±
13.5km/decade) and the dynamics of ecosystems could undergo profound disturbances in the
coming decades, affecting fisheries globally and jeopardizing food security in many southern
countries. The maintenance of healthy and productive marine ecosystems is a critical issue.

THE CHALLENGES IN MARINE coming decades thus affecting fisheries worldwide,

and jeopardizing food security in many countries
FISHERIES
of the southern hemisphere (Lam et al., 2012).

Climate change is affecting the productivity of

marine ecosystems with an impact on fisheries. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Fisheries represent the last human activity that is
exploiting, at an industrial scale, a wild resource
ON MARINE BIODIVERSITY
that is sensitive to environmental fluctuations.
Population growth and changes in food habits Marine life is affected by variations in water
have led to an increasing demand for fish for temperature, in oxygen concentrations, in
human consumption. Fish has become the main acidification, in the severity of extreme climate
source of animal protein for a billion people events and in ocean biogeochemical properties.
worldwide. It is also one of the most traded global These changes have either direct or indirect effects
renewable resources: 28 million tones of marine on the metabolism of individuals (growth, respiration,
fish are destined for US, European and Japanese etc.), on the life cycles of species, on the relationship
markets, which together account for 35% of between prey and predators and on changes in
world catches with over two thirds provided from habitat. They affect both the individual level, and
southern hemisphere countries (Swartz et al., 2010). the interactions between species and habitats,
In a context of climate change it appears that the thus triggering changes in species assemblages,
geographical distribution of fish and ecosystem but also in productivity and ecosystem resilience
dynamics will face profound disruptions in the (Goulletquer et al., 2013).

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The disturbances are now clearly established across latitudes and deeper waters (Cheung et al.,
a wide range of taxonomic groups ranging from 2009). The variation in the global capture poten-
plankton to top predators and in agreement with tial for the stock of 1066 species of marine fish
the theoretical approaches regarding the impact and invertebrates exploited between 2005 and
of climate change (Poloczanska, 2014). Beaugrand 2055 can be predicted according to different
et al. already demonstrated in 2002 that large- climate change scenarios. According to these
scale changes were occurring in the biogeography studies (Cheung et al., 2009), climate change
of calanoid crustaceans in the northeast Atlantic may lead to a large-scale redistribution of the
Ocean and European continental seas. Northward overall catch potential, with an average in-
shifts of warm water species by more than 10° crease of 30 to 70% in high-latitude regions and
latitude coinciding with a decrease in the number a drop reaching 40% in the tropics. Among the
of cold-water species are related both to the rise in 20 most important fishing areas of the Exclusive
temperature in the Northern Hemisphere and to the Economic Zone (EEZ) in terms of landings, ZEE re-
North Atlantic Oscillation. gions with the highest increase in the potential
catches in 2055 should be Norway, Greenland,
Results from a recent global analysis show that the United States (Alaska) and Russia (Asia). On
changes in phenology, distribution and abundance the contrary, the EEZ areas with the greatest
are overwhelmingly (81%) in accordance with the loss of maximum catch potential should include
expected responses in a context of climate change Indonesia, the United States (except Alaska and
(Poloczanska, 2013). A large number of biological Hawaii), Chile and China. Many severely affec-
events concerning maximal phytoplankton ted areas are located in the tropics and are so-
abundance as well as reproduction and migration of cio-economically vulnerable to these changes.
invertebrates, fish and seabirds, all take place earlier
in the year. Hence, in the past fifty years, the Spring Further studies, taking into account factors other
events have been shifting earlier for many species than the temperature of the oceans, highlight
by an average of 4.4 ± 0.7 days per decade and the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to biogeo-
the summer events by 4.4 ± 1.1 days per decade. chemical change and the need to take into
Observations show that for all taxonomic groups, account the possible hypotheses concerning
with great heterogeneity, the rate of displacement their biological and ecological effects in im-
towards the poles reaches 72.0 ± 13.5 kilometers per pact assessments (Cheung et al., 2011). Hence,
decade. Changes in distribution of benthic, pelagic the predictions for the year 2050 regarding the
and demersal species can extend up to a thousand distribution and catchability of 120 species of
kilometers. These poleward migrations have led to fish and demersal invertebrates exploited in the
an increase in the number of warm-water species North Atlantic show that ocean acidification
in areas like the Bering Sea, the Barents Sea or and decreasing oxygen concentrations could
the North Sea. The observed modifications in the reduce the growth performance and lower
distribution of benthic fish and shellfish with latitude the estimated catch potentials from 20 to 30%
and depth can be mainly explained by changes in (10-year average for 2050 compared to 2005)
the temperature of the sea (Pinsky et al., 2013). The in comparison with simulations that do not take
migration rates recorded in the marine environment these disturbing factors into account. In addi-
appear to be faster than observed in the terrestrial tion, changes in the phytoplankton community
environment. structure could also reduce the predicted catch
potential by ~ 10%. All these results highlight the
sensitivity of marine ecosystems to biogeoche-
THE IMPACT ON FISHERIES AND mical changes (Cheung et al., 2011).
GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY
The observed changes are now noticeable in
As mentioned above, fish and marine inverte- the species composition of catches between
brates respond to ocean warming by changing 1970 and 2006 which are largely attributed to
their distribution areas, usually shifting to higher global long-term ocean warming (Cheung et

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al., 2013). Modifications in the marine environ- the integrity and resilience of ecosystems. The EAF
ment should continue to generate considerable contributes to the crucial issue of maintaining
challenges and costs for human societies wor- marine ecosystems healthy and productive,
ldwide, particularly for developing countries while proposing a new way of considering fish
(Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno, 2010). exploitation in a broader context (www.fao.
org/Fishery/eaf-net). The need to develop an
adaptation policy that could minimize the impacts
HOW TO LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF of climate change through fishing must become
CLIMATE CHANGE ON MARINE a priority. This would require better anticipation
of changes using predictive scenarios (sensu
ECOSYSTEMS? Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services -IPBES) and
The best way to fight against the effects of climate
implementing public policies to be able to adapt
change is to preserve biodiversity and avoid
to the changes taking place in marine ecosystems.
overexploitation of certain species. The latter
Although the impact of climate change remains
has been admitted as an aggravating factor on
most of the time unavoidable, the adaptation
the effects of climate change (Perry et al., 2010).
of communities to rapid changes has yet to be
The Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries enables
understood and assessed, thus opening many
reconciliation of exploitation and conservation
research perspectives on this subject.
of the species; in other words it aims at maintaining

REFERENCES

• POLOCZANSKA E. S., HOEGH-GULDBERG O., CHEUNG W., PÖRTNER H.-O. and BURROWS M., 2014 –
Cross-Chapter Box On Observed Global Responses Of Marine Biogeogra- Phy, Abundance, And
Phenology To Climate Change. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part
A : Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
• BEAUGRAND G. P., REID C., IBANEZ F., LINDLEY J. A. and EDWARDS M., 2002 – Reorganization of North
Atlantic Marine Copepod Biodiversity and Climate. Science, 296 : 1692-1694.
• W. W. L. CHEUNG et al., 2009 – Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the
global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology (2010) 16, 24 – 35.
• CHEUNG W. W. L., DUNNE J., SARMIENTO J. L. and PAULY D., 2011 – Integrating Ecophysiology and
Plankton Dynamics into Projected Maximum Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change in the
Northeast Atlantic. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68 : 1008 – 1018.
• CHEUNG W., WATSON R. and PAULY D., 2013 – Signature of Ocean Warming in Global Fisheries Catch.
Nature 497 : 365-368.
• GOULLETQUER P. , GROS P., BŒUF P. et WEBER J., 2013 – Biodiversité en environnement marin. QUAE
Editions.
• HOEGH-GULDBERG O. and BRUNO J. F., 2010 – The Impact of Climate Change on the World’s Marine
Ecosystems. Science, 328, 1523-1528.
• LAM V. W. Y., CHEUNG W.W.L., SWARTZ W. and SUMAILA U. R., 2012 – Climate Change Impacts on
Fisheries in West Africa : Implications for Economic, Food and Nutritional Security. African Journal of
Marine Science, vol. 34, Issue 1, 2012: 103-117.
• PERRY I., CURY P. M., BRANDER K., JENNINGS S., MÖLLMANN C. and PLANQUE B., 2010 – Sensitivity Of
Marine Systems to Climate and Fishing : Concepts, Issues and Management Responses. Journal of
Marine Systems 79 : 427 – 435.
• PINKSY M. L., WORM B., FOGARTY M. J., SARMIENTO J. L. and LEVIN S. A., 2013 – Marine Taxa Track Local
Climate Velocities. Science, 341,1239-1242.
• SWARTZ W., SUMAILA U.R., WATSON R.and PAULY D., 2010 – Sourcing Seafood for the Three Major Markets :
the Eu, Japan and the Usa. Marine Policy 34 (6) : 1366-1373.

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Aquaculture
Marc Metian

and Global
Changes
Aquaculture, a booming sector, now provides almost half of the fish and shellfish on world
markets. Climate change will certainly affect aquaculture productions, however the scale
is not presently quantifiable given the uncertainty of global models. Impacts will vary by
region and type of production. Adaptation of production systems is potentially feasible
through actions of all stakeholders involved. Direct impacts will be related to changes in
production conditions in freshwater, brackish water and marine environments. The main
indirect impact will probably be related to the dependence on an exogenous food supply
for the cultivated organisms. However, the negative impacts (eutrophication of inland waters,
ocean acidification…) and positive impacts (aquaculture activities in colder areas, better
growth of farmed organisms…) could balance out.

At present, aquaculture is booming while global conditions, the costs and coping capacities of
fishing statistics remain stationary. This ancient the actors in the field but also upon national and
activity, close to agriculture, consists of animal international decision-makers.
or plant production in aquatic environments. It
has been growing exponentially since the 1980s
DIRECT RISKS OF GLOBAL CHANGE
and now supplies almost more than half of the
fish and shellfish for the global market. ON AQUACULTURE

It is clear that aquaculture will be severely In 2012, Global aquaculture production reached
impacted by climate change. Various a record of 90.4 million tons (fresh weight equi-
publications on this issue state that the forecasted valent; valued at 144.4 billion US dollars), 66.6
global environmental conditions will affect million tonnes of which was edible products
the aquaculture sector. It is important to note, (137.7 billion US dollars) as well as 23.8 million
however, that all the predicted impacts will tonnes coming from aquatic plants (mainly al-
not necessarily be negative. Indeed, climate gae; valued at 6.4 billion US dollars). Climate
change should potentially create development change will threaten certain aquaculture acti-
opportunities for countries or regions where vities but the extent of these impacts cannot yet
current production is low. be quantified in the absence of global models
that can take into account all direct and indirect
In aquaculture, unlike fisheries, human intervention effects of global changes. However, one thing is
is present throughout the life cycle (with certain certain: there will be consequences on produc-
exceptions). This therefore allows actors to tion, which in turn will affect humans. The glo-
potentially take action to adapt to climate bal demand for fisheries and aquaculture pro-
change. The success of the adjustments made ducts is the largest of all animal food products
will depend upon the severity of environmental (26.85 to 27.45 million tonnes vs. 20.38 to 21.99

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million tonnes in 2009). Moreover, aquaculture an expansion of aquaculture activities towards

products are an important source of nutrition cooler parts of the world, which will have longer
for developed and developing countries (viz. a thawing periods, better growth rates of cultured
contribution to food security), and represent a organisms, and an improved capacity of food
source of income for all communities, regardless conversion for the latter. However, these positive
of the standard of living. Among the impacts effects will be concurrent with negative impacts
of climate change that will affect aquaculture, (e.g. increased eutrophication in inland waters,
direct impacts will mainly be related to modifi- ocean acidification). In both cases (negative
cation of production conditions. Average pro- or positive effects), production methods must
duction will thus be affected, not only in the ma- be adapted.
rine environment (Table) but also in inland areas
(fresh and brackish waters) where the majority
DIVERSE VULNERABILITIES AND
of global production is concentrated. These
inland areas are more sensitive to changes, in DIFFERENT TYPES OF PRODUCTION
fact, it is expected that global warming and
the resulting global surface water temperature Aquaculture is not performed uniformly throughout
rise will impact aquaculture more significantly the world. This heterogeneity must be considered
in these areas than in the marine environment in order to obtain for a meaningful assessment of
(due to the modification of the optimal tem- the potential impacts of climate change. Climate
perature range of organisms that are current- change is likely to occur with differing intensities
ly cultivated). depending on the geographical position, thus
resulting in different impacts. It is therefore neces-
Nevertheless, the negative and positive impacts sary to keep in mind that aquaculture exists mainly
could balance out. Amongst positive impacts under three climatic regimes (tropical, subtropical
of climate change, scientific models predict and temperate), in three types of environment
(seawater, freshwater and brackish water) and
Table - Synthesis of climate change impacts on
covers a wide range of taxa. In terms of different
oceans and coastal areas of climate change that
taxa, it is clear that some species are more tole-
will affect aquaculture (from Allison et al., 2011):
rant than others to changes and that some will
• Change in temperature be more likely to undergo specific changes (for
• Change in salinity, density and stratification of example, ocean acidification should essentially
the oceans affect calcifying organisms such as bivalves whose
• Change in ocean circulation and coastal production was 14 million tonnes in 2012).
upwellings
• Rising sea levels Asia alone accounts for approximately 90% of
• Land-Ocean interactions global aquaculture production, China being the
• Changes in natural climate variations (ENSO) major producer with a fish production accoun-
• Increasing frequency and severity of extreme ting for nearly two-thirds of world production and
weather events contributing significantly to the nutrition of the
• Ocean acidification and changes in seawater Chinese population. Asian aquaculture produc-
chemistry tion is characterized by a diversity of species and
• The timing and success of physiological production systems used. However, inland aqua-
processes, spawning and recruitment culture (fresh or brackish water) still dominates the
• Primary production production of the continent whereas fish maricul-
• Changes in the distribution of marine life ture is underexploited, unlike some other countries
• Changes in abundance of marine life or regions that almost exclusively rely on this type
• Phenomenological changes (i.e. duration of of aquaculture (e.g. salmon farming in Norway).
lifecycles stages)
• Invasion of species and diseases In Asia, direct impacts only related to global war-
• Changes in regime and extreme events ming are likely to be beneficial, resulting in better

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growth rates of cultured stocks. However this should The impacts on the production of shellfish and
not conceal the impacts of climate change on therefore the socio-economic impacts will be
water availability, worsening weather conditions significant. In 2012, although farmed shellfish
such as extreme rainfall, increasing eutrophication, only accounted for a volume of 9.7% (6.4 million
sea level rise and stratification of the oceans. tonnes) of the total aquaculture production for
human consumption, it represented a value of
The intensification of aquaculture in certain areas 22.4% (30.9 billion U.S. dollars). Mollusc production,
(namely Asia and tropical zones) motivates the de- however(15.2 million tonnes), produced more than
velopment of adaptation strategies to mitigate the twofold that of crustaceans. There have been
impacts of climate change in these areas, espe- attempts to adapt to these impacts of climate
cially if the expected difference between demand change on different production systems including
and supply of aquatic products for consumption the use of cages or closed systems.
needs to be compensated through aquaculture.

INDIRECT RISKS OF GLOBAL

One in particular, among the different global
changes is regularly highlighted as the shellfish CHANGE ON AQUACULTURE
production on the West Coast of the United States
is already experiencing its impacts: ocean acidi- The impacts of climate change are not just li-
fication. Associated adverse effects are, for the mited to the environment of the production
moment, well documented for two key product site. The conditions will foster, in particular, the
groups in aquaculture: bivalves and crustaceans. remobilization of contaminants that are current-
The increased presence of dissolved CO2 in seawa- ly non-bioavailable, the emergence of diseases,
ter can impact marine life at 3 levels: increased toxic algal blooms, the disappea-
rance of key species (e.g. for phytoplankton for
1. The limitation of available carbonates, mainly filter feeders) or conversely the occurrence of
affecting calcifying organisms. harmful species in the culture medium.
2. The increase in H+ ions in the water resulting in
decreasing pH – i.e. acidification of surrounding However, the main indirect impact of climate
environment. change on aquaculture will undoubtedly be
3. An increase in the partial pressure of CO2 in linked to the dependence of aquaculture on
organisms, which would result in a hypercapnia. external food supplies. 70% of the world’s aqua-
culture production depends on the supply and
production of raw materials from agriculture
Example - What will the impacts of climate change and industrial fisheries. These external inputs will
be on the Chinese aquaculture industry? be affected by climate change and will the-
refore have an indirect impact on the aqua-
In terms of risks, the latest IPCC forecasts for East
culture industry.
Asia are:
• Average annual temperature: + 3.3°C by 2100
The negative impacts are likely to be expe-
• A possible increase in total annual precipitation
rienced most sharply in the temperate regions
• Increased climate variability
where fish farming is entirely based on carnivo-
According to several authors the negative impacts
rous species but they should also affect other
on fish production will be: heat stress, increased
areas, as the vast majority of countries involved
oxygen demand, aggravation of the toxicity of
in aquaculture production uses fishmeal.
pollutants, higher incidence of fish diseases. More
generally, production systems will be affected by
Recent changes in the distribution and pro-
a decrease in the solubility of oxygen in a warmed
ductivity of a number of fish species can be
ocean, eutrophication, stratification, uncertain
linked with a degree of certainty to regional
water supplies and salt water intrusion due to rising
climate variability such as the El Nino-Southern
sea levels.
Oscillation (ENSO). There is a strong relationship

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between trends in fishing and climate trends. Additionally, it is important that the development
Moreover, the increased frequency and inten- of aquaculture practices should be as
sity of extreme weather events are likely to have environmentally friendly as possible, involving
a major impact on fisheries production and thus the efficient use of resources like water, land,
indirectly on aquaculture. energy and nutrients in agricultural systems.
Feed formulation improvements are in progress
As the indirect impacts on aquaculture activi- and should ideally include ingredients derived
ties and/or productivity are subtle, complex and from alternatives marine resources (such as
difficult to identify, it is challenging to develop by-products from fish filleting factories). More
measures to adapt to climate change. A close environmentally friendly aquaculture could
and interdependent relationship exists between also utilize a certification program but even
fisheries and aquaculture. This relationship is illus- though these programs do exist, the concept
trated by the contribution of certain inputs used of sustainable aquaculture is still under debate.
in aquaculture by the fisheries industry, including However, the current situation is not as bad as
fishmeal, fish oils and to a lesser extent, juvenile what has been relayed by the media. Even
organisms. The impacts of climate change on though the current production practices are
fisheries worldwide will therefore have effects on far from perfect, they are generally more
the aquaculture industry. efficient in terms of product produced per unit
of food input than other land-based animal
production systems. Furthermore, the amount
CONCLUSION AND of environmental degradation caused by
RECOMMENDATIONS aquaculture is less than most agricultural
counterparts. These conclusions in the media are
There are or will be solutions to help aquaculture almost always based on high-value aquaculture
adapt to climate change. The resilience of products such as shrimps and carnivorous fish
aquaculture sensus lato to face unexpected like salmon, hence leading to false ideas among
shocks has already been proven. In particular, the public, planners, developers and investors.
this can be illustrated by the short time it took In reality, the vast majority of aquaculture is
for most of Asia to change the species of shrimp still dependent on fish and shellfish situated
when one species had been severely affected by at the bottom of the food chain. Moreover,
a virus (with a regionally significant dispersion) or macroalgae are also produced and can
by the speed at which some countries affected by potentially act as carbon sinks, thus contributing
devastating weather events very quickly resumed to carbon sequestration.
normal production.
Finally, although many uncertainties remain
Despite these advantages, the aquaculture sector concerning the magnitude of climate change
must prepare itself. Advances and development impacts on aquaculture and on the sector’s
of models and long term predictions are needed adaptability, aquaculture will undoubtedly be
to address the multiple and complex impacts of affected. Action must therefore be preventively
climate change. Moreover, progress in the selection taken to allow the continuation of this activity
of species that are better adapted to cope with upon which the world’s population is becoming
predicted conditions (to multiple stressors) along increasingly dependent.
with a conceptualisation of adaptation solutions
for cultivation practices are needed.

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RECOMMENDED REFERENCES

• ALLISON E. H., BADJECK M.-C. and MEINHOLD K., 2011 – The Implications of Global Climate Change for Molluscan
Aquaculture, in Shellfish Aquaculture and the Environment. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford.
• BRANDER K. M., 2007 – Global Fish Production and Climate Change. PNAS 104 (50) : 19709 – 19714.
• COCHRANE K., DE YOUNG C., SOTO D. and BAHRI T., 2009 – Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture :
Overview of Current Scientific Knowledge. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper, n° 530. Rome.
• DE SILVA S. S. and SOTO D., 2009 – Climate Change and Aquaculture : Potential Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation.
In Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture. Overview of Current Scientific Knowledge. Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, pp. 151–212.
• DONEY S. C., FABRY V. J., FEELY R. A. and KLEYPAS J. A., 2009 – Ocean Acidification : the Other CO2 Problem. Annual
Review of Marine Science 1 : 169 – 192.
• FAO, 2014 – The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, Rome.
• HANDISYDE N. T., ROSS L. G., BADJECK M.-C. and ALLISON E. H., 2006 – The Effects of Climate Change on World
Aquaculture : a Global Perspective. Final Technical Report. DFID Aquaculture and Fish Genetics Research Programme,
Stirling Institute of Aquaculture, Stirling, www. aqua.stir.ac.uk/GISAP/climate/index.htm.
• MERINO G., BARANGE M., BLANCHARD J. L., HARLE J., HOLMES R., ALLEN I., ALLISON E. H., BADJECK M. C., DULVY N.
K., HOLT J., JENNINGS S., MULLON C. and RODWELL L. D., 2012 – Can Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture Meet Fish
Demand from a Growing Human Population in a Changing Climate ? Global Environmental Change 22 : 795 – 806.
• MERINO G., BARANGE M. and MULLON C., 2010 – Climate Variability and Change Scenarios for a Marine Commodity :
Modelling Small Pelagic Fish, Fisheries and Fishmeal in a Globalized Market. Journal of Marine Systems 81 : 196 – 205,.
• TROELL M. et al., 2014 – Does Aquaculture Add Resilience to the Global Food System ? Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 111 (37) : 13257 – 13263.
• TACON A. G. J., METIAN M. and DE SILVA S. S., 2010 – Climate Change, Food Security and Aquaculture : Policy
Implications for Ensuring the Continued Green Growth & Sustainable Development of A Much Needed Food
Sector. In Proceeding of the Workshop on Advancing the Aquaculture Agenda : Policies to Ensure a Sustainable
Aquaculture Sector. French Ministry for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries and OECD.
• TACON A. G. J. and METIAN M., 2008 – Global Overview on the Use of Fish Meal and Fish Oil In Industrially Compounded
Aquafeeds : Trends and Future Prospects. Aquaculture 285 (1-4) : 146-158.

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Small Islands,
Virginie Duvat,
Alexandre Magnan,
Jean-Pierre Gattuso

Ocean and
Climate
The physical characteristics of small islands (limited land area, small plains, high exposure
to unpredictable marine weather) and their human characteristics (strong dependence
on subsistence activities and ecosystems) explain their potentially high vulnerability to
environmental changes (i.e., changes in the ocean and sea-related hazards). They have
become iconic figures representing the threats associated with climate change: rising sea
levels, increase in cyclones, as well as ocean warming and acidification. Although a wide
diversity of answers is to be expected from one island system to another, Small islands
in general have to face significant threats: reduction in islands’surface area, increase in
coastal erosion, degradation of coral reefs and mangroves. The impact on land (soil, water,
flora and fauna) and marine resources (reefs and fisheries) will be major, hampering the
future of human survival in many islands. Consequently, such societies have to face an
extremely pressing challenge.
Regardless of their political status, small islands, Small islands are territorial systems that are both
whether isolated or part of an archipelago1, have vulnerable and reactive, placing them at the
to face a number of constraints inherent to their forefront of the consequences of environmental
small size (areas ranging from less than 1 km² to changes. Among the changes consecutive to the
several thousand km²) and to their geographical excess of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the
remoteness from major world centers of activity atmosphere, they are particularly disturbed by
(for example economies of scale are scarce, those affecting the global ocean (surface water
affecting their competitiveness, the education warming together with acidification). The political
system, etc.). In particular, their geographical representatives of these insular territories often
characteristics (limited land area, reduced present their islands as «the first victims of climate
plains, strong exposure to sea-related hazards) change.» The threats to small islands are not as
and human specificities (strong dependence marginal as have been supposed, since they are,
upon subsistence activities and ecosystems) in a certain way, the same as those faced by the
can explain their high sensitivity to environmental vast majority of the world’s coastlines. Therefore,
changes and to natural disasters. Such features beyond their specificities, there are lessons to learn
directly generate a series of impacts which, on the from these “miniature lands”.
continent, would generally be easily attenuated
in space and in time (Duvat and Magnan, 2012). This article follows the simple logic of the chain
of impacts starting from physical, climatic
1 Independent state like the Maldives or Mauritius; State in and oceanic processes, and leading to the
free association with its former colonial power, like the Marshall consequences on the ecosystems and resources
Islands (USA), or the Cook Islands (New Zealand); Marine col-
lectivity that is part of a larger territory like the French Overseas
of island systems. The issue of environmental
Territories, for example. changes and their relationship to the processes

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of «unsustainable development2» will then be (mountain glaciers, Arctic and Antarctic ice
addressed, and finally, a few key messages will caps), increasing the volume of ocean water,
conclude. which, schematically, tends to «overflow». The
average rate of sea level rise was 17cm across
the globe throughout the twentieth century,
THE PHYSICAL PROCESSES AT WORK corresponding to about 1.7mm/year (Church et
al., 2013).
The island nations have been sounding the
alarm since the late 1980s: environmental
Recent scientific research highlights two
changes related to climate change, such as the
elements. Firstly, the fact that the ocean does
progressive degradation of vital resources like
not rise at the same rate everywhere: the
fresh water or the occurrence of devastating
eastern Indian Ocean and the Central Pacific
extreme events like cyclones, raise the question
in particular, experience high sea level rises,
of their chances of survival on the horizon over
with values reaching for example + 5mm /
the next few decades. Small islands have thus
year in Funafuti (Tuvalu) (Becker et al., 2012).
become emblematic examples of the threats
Secondly, the scientific community points out
associated with climate change, and even
that the sea level rise, which has accelerated
metaphors of the environmental challenge
since the early 1990s3, will continue over the
faced by modern Humanity, «alone on its tiny
next century. The worst case scenario4 predicts
planet» (Diamond, 2006). This diagnosis is based
an average increase in the sea level of + 45
on scientific reasons, which are directly related
to + 82cm between now and 2100 (Church et
to the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
al., 2013). Furthermore this trend is irreversible
gases since nearly 150 years and that can be
partly because of the latency phenomena that
classified into four categories: rising sea level,
characterize the oceanic and atmospheric
extreme events, warming ocean waters and
processes. These will cause the sea level to carry
acidification of the global ocean.
on rising at least during several centuries even
if all greenhouse gases emissions were to stop
Rising sea level
tomorrow (Solomon et al., 2009, Levermann et
Rising sea level as a consequence of climate
al., 2013).
change is undoubtedly the most publicized
phenomenon, especially for small islands.
The consequences of this accelerated rise in sea
Catastrophic interpretations relay poorly the
level will be all the more serious for small islands
more prudent scientific conclusions, and
as they have a high coastal index (coastline to
certain media announce the impending
land area ratio) and as their populations and
disappearance of low-lying islands (especially
activities are mostly concentrated in the coastal
the Maldives, Kiribati and Tuvalu) while others
zone. Obviously, the situation of low-lying islands
proclaim the imminent flooding of coastal plains
(atolls) is of particular concern, as the example
that concentrate populations and economic
of the Kiribati archipelago (Pacific Central) will
activities. Although such claims can be
be illustrated in the following.
questionable, because the responses of island
systems to climate pressure will be necessarily
In 1989, the United Nations adopted a specific
diverse, it remains an undeniable fact that the
resolution on the adverse effects of rising sea
sea level has been rising for more than a century
levels on islands and coastal zones, officially
due to anthropogenic climate change. Why?
First, the increase in the temperature of the lower
3 The global average is +3.2mm/year between 1993 and
layers of the atmosphere warms the surface
2010 (Chruch et al., 2013).
ocean waters, resulting in their expansion. This 4 Models that are the basis of the last IPCC report conside-
is combined to the melting of continental ice red 4 main scenarios concerning greenhouse gas concen-
trations in the atmosphere by the end of the century. These
scenarios are Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP),
2 Term that describes the unsustainable development mo- ranging from the most optimistic (RCP2.6) to the most pessi-
dels that are currently used. mistic (RCP8.5).

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recognizing the high vulnerability of these Given the complexity of processes, it is difficult
territories to climate change. A few years later, at this stage to predict how cyclones and their
the United Nations Conference on Environment impacts on small islands will evolve as a result
and Development (Earth Summit, Rio, 1992) of climate change. However, on the basis of
emphasized once again the particular case the last IPCC report, the main facts to bear in
of small islands. Most recently, during the Third mind are that: (i) the frequency of cyclones
International Conference of the United Nations should not inexorably increase in the future;
on Small Island developing States, held in early (ii) the most intense cyclones are expected to
September 2014 in Samoa, one of the key increase in intensity, at least in certain regions;
themes addressed was climate change and, in (iii) the trajectories, i.e. the impact areas of
particular, rising sea level. cyclones, are very likely to evolve in the future.
On this basis, and despite the uncertainties
Extreme events: hurricanes, distant waves and about the evolution of cyclones, an increase in
El Niño the destructive impacts of cyclones should be
Our understanding of the interactions between expected in small islands: firstly, because the rise
the ocean and the atmosphere is still incomplete in sea level will allow cyclonic swell to propagate
and limits our ability to model certain climate farther inland; and secondly, because the
phenomena, and therefore to forecast the intensification of the most powerful cyclones
evolution of extreme events (storms and El Niño). will worsen their destructive effects on coastal
However it is foreseeable that the pressure of areas in certain regions. For example, erosion
these extreme events on small islands is going is expected to accelerate in places where
to increase. cyclones are already causing erosion peaks.

The energy in tropical cyclones is far greater Likewise, the evolution of storms in temperate
than that of temperate depressions, with wind zones (North and South) and at high latitudes,
speeds that can exceed 350km/h. These winds which remains difficult to predict, should also
can destroy the vegetation, infrastructure and have an impact on the changes in the sea-
buildings. Along with cyclones, heavy rainfall related hazards in insular environments. Indeed,
often occurs (up to 1500mm in 24h) leading to it is now clear that the powerful swell produced
overflowing riverbeds and even catastrophic by these storms can spread over great distances
flooding. In addition to these weather effects, across the ocean and cause significant
cyclonic swell can impact coastal areas, damage on distant island territories thousands
causing even more destruction than cyclones of kilometers from its area of formation (Nurse
associated to storm surges5. The consequences et al., 2014). For example, in December 2008,
of marine inundation (waves + storm surge) distant swells caused significant damage in
are obviously amplified when it combines with many states of the Western Pacific like the
flooding from inland waterways. Cyclonic Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated
swell, which often reaches a height of 4-6m States of Micronesia and Papua New Guinea
at the coast, can also cause marked erosion (Hoeke et al., 2013).
peaks (retreat of the coastline by 10 to 15m,
lowering of the foreshore), or on the contrary, Finally, it is still extremely difficult to predict
a strong accretion along the coast due to the the evolution of El Niño, while at least four of
accumulation of sand and blocks of coral torn its manifestations are known to disrupt insular
from the reef (Etienne, 2012). environments. Firstly, the significant changes in
surface ocean temperatures that occur during
El Niño events are reflected in some regions by
marked temperature peaks. They are responsible
5 Abnormal increase in the sea level due to low atmospheric for devastating coral bleaching events6 (95
pressure (-1mb = +1cm) and to wind stress (accumulation of
water on the coastline), that add to the wave action (upwash
and backwash on the shore). 6 When the temperature tolerance threshold of coral, around

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to 100% coral mortality in the Maldives and Niño episodes, leads to the concern about an
the Seychelles in 1997-1998). Secondly, El Niño increase in the frequency of bleaching events,
events result in an increase in the number of and even their persistence (Hoegh-Guldberg,
cyclones in areas usually less exposed, as is the 2011, Gattuso et al., 2014). This could lead to the
case for the Tuamotu Archipelago in French extinction of many species.
Polynesia: while the frequency of cyclones
is normally 1 every 20 to 25 years, 5 cyclones The ocean acidification
have passed the northwestern islands of this Parallel to climate change, pollution from
archipelago within six months during the 1982- greenhouse gases began generating an
1983 El Niño (Dupont, 1987). Thirdly, El Niño increase in the dissolved CO2 content of ocean
causes major disruptions in rainfall patterns, water, better known as ocean acidification
causing heavy rains in certain areas (central (Gattuso and Hansson, 2011). Ocean
and eastern Pacific) and pronounced droughts acidification has also been named «the other
in others (western Pacific, with strong impacts in CO2 problem» (Turley, 2005, Doney et al., 2009).
Kiribati and in the Marshall Islands, for example). Indeed, the oceans have absorbed about
Some islands, such as the south of Kiribati for a third of the anthropogenic CO2 since the
example, can thus experience a drought period industrial revolution. However, the increase of
of 1 to 2 years. Finally, El Niño events are also CO2 in seawater causes a decrease in pH, i.e.
associated with an abnormal rise in sea level of making it more acidic. The predictions for the
30 to 40cm in the western Pacific, causing major twenty first century involve a decrease in the
flooding on the islands of this region, especially global mean pH, which may reach 7.8 in 2100
when these abnormally high sea levels are (Ciais et al., 2013) compared to 8.18 before the
combined with storm surges. The evolution of El industrial era and 8.10 at present.
Niño events is therefore of particular concern for
insular environments. This phenomenon has and will continue to have,
a significant impact on the basic chemistry of
The rise in the ocean temperature the ocean, then, through a domino effect, on
The increase in the temperature of the surface marine organisms (calcification decrease in
ocean waters is another problem, which many animal skeletonnes or limestone shells)
combines with the previous phenomena. A large and ecosystems (Pörtner et al., 2014, Gattuso
part of the energy stored by the climate system et al., 2014b, Howes et al., in press). Hence
is stored in the ocean, with the consequence specialists argue that the effects of acidification
that the first 75m of the ocean have warmed on coral reefs will become very important when
by 0.11°C per decade between 1971 and 2010 the atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceed
(Rhein et al., 2013). Substantial warming is now 500 ppm (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014).7
also clearly measurable at least down to 750m
deep (Arndt et al., 2010). The consequences The future vulnerability of small islands to
of such changes will be major in the offshore climate and ocean changes will therefore
zones: species migrations, including those that largely depend upon the evolution of these
are fished, disruption of oxygen exchanges, etc. four pressure factors (sea level, extreme events,
The consequences should also be significant global warming and ocean acidification).
in coastal areas with strong impacts on coral These island systems are reactive because
reefs, which are very sensitive to temperature they are very dependent on environmental
increases. The gradual increase in surface conditions. Hence, acidification combined with
ocean temperatures, combined with the onset surface water warming will have even more
of destructive thermal peaks occurring during El negative impacts if the coastal ecosystems

30°C, is exceeded, the coral expulse the zooxanthella (sym- 7 The atmospheric CO2 concentration threshold of 400ppm
biotic, photosynthetic algae that partly feed the coral), dis- was passed in May 2013 at the measuring station of the Mau-
colour, and are likely to die massively. A prolonged bleaching na Loa observatory (Hawaii). For example, at this same sta-
can lead to the death of a whole reef. tion, the concentration was 386 ppm in 2009.

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(reefs, mangroves, etc.) are already subjected (sediment reservoirs, storm impacts, responses of
to strong anthropogenic pressure, especially coral reefs to the pressure associated with climate
if these ecosystems have already undergone change, etc.) and anthropogenic (interference
significant functional degradation. This also of coastal development with natural coastal
holds for threats due to rising sea levels and the processes, impacts of human activities and
occurrence of more intense tropical cyclones: public policies on ecosystems, etc.). Hence, in
the more natural coastal systems have been the coming decades, a decrease in area of the
disrupted, sometimes irreversibly, the more their islands can be expected, particularly for coral
natural ability to adapt will be amputated in the islands. A country like the Maldives, where the
future, and the more the impacts of extreme altitude of 80% of the emerged land area is less
events and of more gradual changes will be than 1m high, will indeed most probably undergo
significant. Thus, the lack of sustainability of our a significant reduction in its area under the
current development patterns (degradation of effect of sea level rise. However this stress factor
marine and coastal ecosystems, disconnection has, like the other ones (frequency and intensity
of the modern society from environmental of storms, deterioration of the health of coral
constraints, development of areas exposed to reefs, etc.), varying impacts from one island to
hazards, etc.) is at the heart of the threats that the other, depending on the geomorphological
climate change poses on coastal areas, and and human context. For example, the islands
especially islands (Duvat and Magnan, 2014). already affected by erosion or whose coastline
is heavily developed will not benefit from any
natural mechanism of elevation allowing them
IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY OF to adjust to sea level rise. Such an adjustment
SMALL ISLANDS mechanism will be possible only if there is an
underwater sediment reservoir capable of
To understand why small islands are at the supplying the shore, but also an area free of
forefront of impending environmental changes, it any development along the coastline where
is necessary to go into more in detail concerning sediment can accumulate. On one hand,
the combined impacts of rising sea level, extreme nowadays, these two conditions are only met
events, global warming and ocean acidification. in a limited number of inhabited islands, but
on the other hand, such a natural adjustment
What impacts are expected? mechanism could probably only succeed on
Climate models do not yet provide accurate certain little- or un-developed Islands.
evolution scenarios at the scale of different
oceanic sub-regions. However, the current Similarly, on the coastal fringe of higher standing
predictions, supplemented by available islands, the lowlands will be gradually won by
knowledge on the responses of island systems the sea, where no accretion mechanism will
to the different types of natural and human be able to generate their elevation or seaward
pressures, can allow assessing the main impacts extension, unless technical interventions, such as
that climate change will have. The effects on the landfilling, maintain these areas above sea-level.
evolution of the islands and of their main coastal
ecosystems, coral reefs and mangroves, will be In some cases, a decrease in the area of low
successively addressed below. islands will probably lead to question their viability,
as their resources will become insufficient to
A reduction in the surface of the islands and a meet the needs of their inhabitants. The coastal
retreat of the coastline plains of the higher islands will also be subjected
It is impossible to predict the response of to climate pressures resulting in impacts on the
island systems to the pressure resulting from communities that will be all the more stronger as
climate change because of the multitude of the demographic pressure is high and as food
factors involved and of the complexity of their production systems are developed (Nurse et
interactions. These factors can be both natural al., 2014).

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19708, meaning that no bleaching episode had

Consequently, the evolution of coral islands and occurred previously (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999).
coastal plains will vary from one place to another, Since that date, where the increase in ocean
depending on a large number of factors whose temperatures due to climate change has been
development cannot be necessarily predictable. experienced, the ocean temperature has been
consistently exceeding this threshold during El
Coral reefs under threat Niño events, leading to inevitable bleaching
Face to climate change effects, the behavior events. Using the predicted changes in ocean
of coral reefs will play a key role in the response temperatures, the models forecast bleaching to
of many islands. However, the future of reefs take place annually from 2050 onwards, which
depends on the combination of various factors, could undermine the ability of corals to survive.
the main ones including the rate of sea level rise, The increasing frequency of these events may not
the temperature of surface ocean water, the allow enough time for coral reefs to regenerate
acidification rate of ocean waters, the current between two heat peaks, although this remains
vitality of corals and their ability to withstand shocks, a hypothesis because the responses of coral reefs
and the extent of weakening of their resilience by vary from one region to another depending on
human activities (Gattuso et al., 2014). The rates of ocean circulation and depth: shallow reefs are
rising sea level predicted for the coming decades generally more affected by thermal peaks and
can theoretically allow corals to compensate with are less resilient than those that develop in a more
growth for the increasing level of the ocean, as oceanic environment (close by deep waters and
they can grow 10 to 25mm/year. During the last intense exchanges with the ocean water mass).
rise in sea level, the vast majority of reefs have Also at a local level, the responses of different
followed the rise step by step (keep-up reefs) or species of corals can differ. A single species does
after a time lag (catch-up reefs). However these not inevitably react identically to two thermal
elements remain theoretical because in reality, stresses of the same intensity, as has been observed
the behavior of corals depends on the ecological during a monitoring program carried out in 1996,
conditions that prevail in the different parts of the 1998 and 2002 on coral reefs of the Arabian Gulf
ocean. In areas where the state of the reef is good, (Riegl, 2007). In 1996, the branching corals of the
the corals will eventually grow with the rise in sea genus Acropora were completely decimated, but
level, but in places where they will tend to degrade regenerated rapidly and were not affected in
significantly, they may come to disappear. Various 2002. This suggests that corals do have a capacity
factors, ranging from global to local, determine the to adapt. Observations carried out in the eastern
quality of ecological conditions. At the global level, Pacific lead to the same conclusions. The 1982-
they will deteriorate due to ocean acidification, 1983 El Niño episode appeared to have been
which as mentioned earlier, leads to a decrease more destructive than that of 1997-98, leading
of the calcification rate in calcareous skeleton to the hypothesis that disasters may contribute
creatures as well as a simultaneous reduction in to select the most resistant individuals (Glynn et
the resistance of these organisms to natural and al., 2001). The resilience of coral also depends on
anthropogenic sources of stress. their degree of weakening due to diseases, whose
development has been promoted by the thermal
At both regional and local scales, the main peaks in certain regions (Caribbean, for example).
factors influencing the behavior of corals are Finally, resistance and resilience of corals depend
sea surface temperatures (mean value and largely on the degree of human disturbance. Yet
intra- and interannual variations), pH, storms today global estimations show that 30% of coral
and the degree of human disturbance of the reefs will be extremely degraded and 60% will be
environment. As for bleaching coral colonies, the severely threatened by 2030 (Hughes et al., 2003).
models developed for Tahiti (French Polynesia)
over the 1860 to 2100 period show that the surface 8 Although the maximum temperature tolerated by corals
varies from one region to another – it is particularly higher in
temperatures remained below the threshold until seas than in oceans – globally, bleaching can occur above
30°C.

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Anthropogenic pressure on reefs is also likely to very slow and may even slow down in the future,
increase in island systems due to a generally high as ecological conditions tend to deteriorate.
population growth.
The islands and coasts that won’t elevate will be
Why is so much importance given to the more regularly submerged during spring tides,
development of coral reefs when assessing the storms and El Niño episodes, while those that
fate of small islands? The reason is that the total or do have an upward growth will not necessarily
partial disappearance of coral reefs would result be more vulnerable to flooding than they are
on the one hand, in the prevention of the vertical at present.
adjustment mechanism of these islands and coasts
to changing sea level, and on the other hand, in What is the future for the mangroves?
an increase in coastal erosion. Indeed, firstly, the Mangroves play an equally important role as coral
death of the reefs would bring both an end to the reefs in preserving low-lying islands and sandy
upward growth of corals as well as reduce the coasts, and in protecting human developments
supply of freshly crushed coral debris; secondly, during storms. These coastal forests generally
it would generate an increase in marine energy continue to expand in the areas where mangroves
at the coast, causing wave induced erosion, have not been cleared and where the mudflat they
especially in storm conditions. In this configuration, colonize continue to be supplied with sediments.
the factor that will play a crucial role in preserving In many atolls, on the inside of the lagoon, the
coral coasts will be the state of inert sediment extension of mangroves can be observed as a
stocks9 that may be mobilized by marine processes result of the colonization of sandy-muddy banks
thus compensating for the reduction in the supply by young mangrove trees (Rankey, 2011).
of fresh coral debris. The role of these sands that
have accumulated on small scale sea beds should How will climate change impact mangroves?
not be neglected, as some islands with a poorly Theoretically, a rise in sea level should cause an
developed reef (narrow or only present on part inshore migration as the different ecological zones
of the coastline) were formed and continue to that make up the mudflat also tend to adapt by
grow in response to the shoreward transport of migrating in this direction. However, beyond the
these ancient sands (Cazes-Duvat et al., 2002). sea level rise, two factors will play a key role: the
sedimentation rate and the level of human pressure
Where ecological conditions are favorable for on the ecosystem. In favourable conditions (active
the development of coral, lifeless coral reef flats, sedimentation and reduced human pressure) the
like those of Kiribati and Tuamotu for example rise in sea level can be compensated by the rising
which consist of a conglomerate platform, could of small scale sea beds. In this case, mangroves
be colonized by new coral colonies. This is also the remain or continue to expand offshore. The most
case for coasts bordered by a rocky reef exempt sensitive areas are undoubtedly those that are
of coral life. In this respect, the development of a already affected by severe erosion, causing the
reef could eventually develop the elevation of the destruction of mangroves, and/or those which
flats thus allowing them to follow the progressive have already been degraded by man.
sea level rise. Such a development would be
clearly in favor of vertical growth of low islands It is worth noting that the responses of island systems
and associated coastal plains, which would in to climate change and ocean acidification are not
turn be further supplied with coral debris than they unequivocal, as they depend on a combination
are today. Therefore all the coastlines should not of factors whose assemblage and interactions can
necessarily erode. It should nevertheless be noted show spatial variations, even over short distances.
that the development of corals would not produce In addition, the present available knowledge on
immediate benefits for human communities. The the resilience of corals and mangroves face to
processes of colonization and coral growth are natural pressures is still insufficient to establish a
definitive diagnosis. While it is undeniable that
9 Sediments produced by previous generations of coral reefs. the reefs will be subjected to increasing pressure

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in the future, the results from recent studies have agriculture, representing a serious challenge
brought into perspective the even more pessimistic regarding food security. An increase in external
initial studies. Furthermore as the behaviour of reefs dependency will follow, especially for rural atolls
will play a crucial role in the evolution of coral in many coral archipelagos. Soils will also tend
islands and coastal plain sandy coasts, where the to degrade under the effect of salinization due
morphosedimentary processes are complex and to rising sea levels and more frequent coastal
spatially variable, it is not possible to conclude flooding on the islands and coastal plains that
that all coral islands, for example, will be rapidly cannot elevate. Moreover, few edible plant
swept off the face of the planet. In addition to the species tolerate salt, even though coconut tree
uncertainties that prevail on many processes, there can support salt up to a certain threshold beyond
is also considerable doubt as to the temporality which they die. The reduction in exploited areas,
when certain island systems will find themselves especially coconut groves, should reduce the
under critical situations. availability of building materials. Also, the gradual
evolution of island farming practices towards
What impact on island resource systems? species that are less resistant to climatic and
To make progress in the chain of impacts of marine pressures than indigenous species - for
climate change and ocean acidification on example the banana tree being less resistant
human communities, the focus is put on the than the pandanus and the coconut trees - may
impact of physical disturbances on land (soil, increase the magnitude and frequency of food
water, flora and fauna) and marine resources shortages (this is what happened for example
(reef and fisheries) of low-lying islands and coastal in the Maldives following the damage caused
plains of high mountainous islands. by the tsunami in 2004) and trade deficits (the
case of the West Indies following the passage of
On land Hurricane Dean in 2007) in the future.
Land resources are going to decline as a
result of various processes (Nurse et al., 2014, Climate change will cause quantitative and
Wong et al., 2014). Firstly, the increase in qualitative changes in water resources, which
atmospheric temperature leads to increased depend on several factors. The most important
evapotranspiration10, causing the soil to dry is the sea level, whose elevation will inevitably
and an increase in the consumption of brackish reduce the volume of underground freshwater
shallow groundwater by plants. This groundwater reserves. According to the principle of Ghyben
absorption should not be overlooked, as Herzberg that governs the functioning of aquifers,
measurements on Tarawa Atoll (Kiribati) have any rise in sea level causes a reduction in volume.
shown that the most common tree, the coconut More frequent or even systematic coastal flooding
tree, restored at least 150 liters of water per day to during high spring tides, are the source of repeated
the atmosphere through transpiration. Under these intrusions of salt water into the groundwater, thus
conditions, the expected increase in groundwater contributing to the deterioration of its quality. The
pumping by coconut trees and other types of islands and coasts under strong coastal erosion
vegetation should significantly strengthen the should be more affected by the decrease in
pressure that is exerted on these reserves that the volume and quality of underground lenses.
are already used by humans to meet there needs. Another important factor is rainfall, which
The degradation of the quality of the soils and the determines the rate and frequency of recharging
decreasing water resources will further reduce the the underground freshwater lens and rivers that
possibilities of cultivation. Consequently a drop cross the coastal plains. To date, there is no
in production should arise, especially for island reliable mean of forecasting the evolution of
rainfalls. Moreover, there are still uncertainties
10 Evapotranspiration represents the different phenomena regarding the freshwater resources of certain high
related to evaporation and transpiration of plants. These two islands. It is thus impossible to identify the islands
processes are linked by their transpiration, the plants release
water absorbed from the ground into the atmosphere. In this
and archipelagos that will be most affected by
way they contribute to the water cycle. the degradation of water resources. A reduction

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in the volume of available water is to be expected which are already strong, are still going to
in areas where droughts will be more frequent increase. As a consequence, the already limited
and/or drawn-out. Consequently, the water will island resources are to decrease or to become
become more salty, causing the increase in the more random than today. Therefore the viability
frequency and severity of crop mortality peaks (for of certain reef islands and island states themselves
coconut and taro, in particular) which are already might eventually be challenged. However, at
being observed. The removal of water from the present the main threat for the sustainability of
groundwater during a drought has the further these islands is unsustainable development that
effect of reducing its thickness, which means that has, over the past few decades, degraded the
in periods of water shortage, groundwater, which resources and reduced their resilience to natural
is crucial for the survival of many islanders, may pressures (Duvat and Magnan, 2012, 2014). In
become unfit for consumption. As rainwater tanks other words, the main challenges nowadays in
on the islands become empty when the drought coral islands and coastal plains reside in pollution,
lasts, this issue could undermine the habitability land disputes, depletion of natural resources, etc.,
of certain low-lying islands. Individual access to and not only the effects of climate change and
water should also decrease as a result of the high the ocean acidification. This conclusion is not a
population growth characterizing these areas. denial that climate change and acidification
have and will have a major impact, but it is rather
At sea a justification that existing insular communities
As stressed in the last IPCC report (Pörtner et are going to have to meet a challenge that is
al., 2014, Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014), there is yet unmatched with the disturbances that they
currently very little information concerning the are already facing today. With relatively poor
impacts of climate change on the distribution flexibility, they will have to deal with the impacts
of fishery resources. The strong pressures that of climate change that will in turn be multiplied
are already at work on coral reefs in some of by the environmental disturbances of recent
the most populated areas should increase decades, the latter having greatly increased
where population growth remains strong. As the vulnerability of ecosystems. Under these
different factors in these areas contribute to the conditions, climate change and acidification
degradation of reefs, available reef resources will act as accelerators of the impacts of current
per inhabitant will decrease. Moreover these developments. By reducing the area of the islands
resources play an important role in the daily diet of in a context of high population growth, climate
islanders, including the islands where the need for change will in certain cases, generate land
imported products is high (Nurse et al., 2014). This conflicts. Furthermore, by generating a decline in
is even more an issue when considering that the reef resources while the need for food is increasing,
possible changes in ocean currents might reduce climate change and acidification will most likely
the presence of pelagic species in certain ocean accelerate the deterioration and death of reefs
regions, thereby preventing the consumption in some areas. The pressure on water resources
transfer on these species. The fishing industry as will also increase. In total, it can be expected
a whole is therefore being questioned, from the that the concentration of the population will
natural resources to the fishing means (ships, ports, increase in the capital cities that are currently
etc.), the latter also being destabilized by rising the only areas to benefit from alternative solutions
sea levels, extreme events and other sources of (desalinated water, imported food). This will not be
stress (economic crisis for example). On top of this, without consequences, notably on food security
overfishing leads to severe reduction in fish stocks and human health.
in coastal waters and lagoons as well as offshore.
It is now feared that due to the combination of the
Even if island systems will have a differentiated effects of unsustainable development, climate
response to the signs of climate change and ocean change and acidification, certain archipelagos
acidification, and despite the uncertainties that will no longer be inhabitable within a few decades.
remain, it is clear that environmental constraints,

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BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL the responses of corals to changes in weather

and sea conditions. Its exclusive economic
CHANGES RELATED TO zone (EEZ) is vast (3.5 million km²) and contrasts
ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND with the modesty of its land area (726km²),
which is also fragmented into a large number
UNSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: THE of islands. On an atoll, the dominant element is
SYMPTOMATIC CASE OF ATOLLS the lagoon, enclosed by a ring of reef islands
that are generally less than 1km² in area. They
This third section highlights the importance of are also not inhabitable on their entire surface
considering the pressures of climate change due to the presence of mudflats and mangrove
and ocean acidification in a broader context swamps, to the strong instability of their coastlines
of anthropogenic pressures. The aim is to show and to very low altitudes in some parts. Summits
how future threats initially take root in the current mainly culminate around 3 to 4m, so the risk
issues of «unsustainable development», that is, non- of submersion remains very high. As they are
viable development, illustrated in particular by the young (between 2000 and 4000 years), made of
strong deterioration of coastal ecosystems and sand and coral debris and exposed to marine
uncontrolled urbanization. In this case, climate processes, their soils are poor and vegetal
change and ocean acidification play the role resources weakly diversified. Water is scarce,
in the acceleration of pressure on the living brackish (2-3g salt/L) and very sensitive to
conditions of insular communities. climatic fluctuations. Water comes from rainfall
that infiltrates to form a shallow groundwater
The case of the coral archipelago of Kiribati (Central lens (from 1 to 2m) proportional in size to the
Pacific) illustrates this point (Duvat et al., 2013, islands. In the southern atolls of Kiribati, the
Magnan et al., 2013). Focus is put on the effects of presence of water becomes uncertain during
climate change only, since the effects of ocean droughts related to El Niño episodes, which can
acidification are for the moment too complex last up to 2 years.
to determine in the specific case of Kiribati. A
brief assessment of the natural constraints and At a human level, three thousand years of
socio-economic changes of the last two centuries history have shaped a territorial organization
can explain what pressures the country is currently based on a dual strategy: to ensure that each
facing, and in what manner climate change will family has access to a (low) diversity of land and
amplify them. With the questionable future of these marine resources, and to rationally manage
areas and island populations, this demonstrates these resources. The delimitation of the islands
the major importance of overlapping the physical into transversal strips connecting the lagoon
(climatic and chemical processes, ecosystems, to the ocean allowed each family to exploit
etc.) and human dimensions (cultural relationship the different environments. The habitation was
to resources and risk, development patterns, generally located at a distance of 20 to 60
etc.) in order to understand these systems in their meters from the lagoon coast, sheltered from
geographical and historical complexity. In other swell. In the interior, coconut and pandanus
words, their vulnerability to future environmental trees (wood, palms and fruit) were grown and
changes not only depends on the evolution of the in very low areas, taro11 could be found. Families
climate/ocean relationship. This basic reasoning also used to share the operation of fish traps on
is a fundamental step towards understanding the ocean side and fish ponds in the sheltered
vulnerability in all its dimensions, but also to areas. They additionally used to collect shellfish
imagine strategies of adaptation that can be on the foreshore of the muddy lagoon. Island
locally relevant, consistent and realistic in their communities made food and coconut provision
implementation. in anticipation of harsh weather conditions (Di

Like Tuvalu and the Maldives, Kiribati mainly 11 Emblematic tuber of the Pacific civilisations (for consump-
tion and for ceremonies). Each family had a portion of “taro
comprises atolls whose evolution depends on garden”.

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Piazza, 2001). This system supported an access THE KEY MESSAGES TO REMEMBER
of the population to a diversified diet and
AND AVENUES TO EXPLORE
attenuated food crises related to fluctuations in
the different resources. Nowadays this ancestral
Their intrinsic characteristics, both physical and
approach is hardly used anymore, especially in
anthropogenic, place the small islands in the
the most populated urbanized islands (e.g., the
forefront of threats associated with climate
South Tarawa Urban District).
change and ocean acidification. However
their situation raises more universal issues in the
Within less than two centuries, Kiribati has
sense that, ultimately, the major amount of
experienced five major transformations:
coastlines of the world are also threatened by
1. The regrouping of habitations into villages
extreme weather and marine events and by the
in the rural atolls and into urban areas in
progressive deterioration of the living conditions
Tarawa Atoll.
of ecosystems and human communities. Hence,
2. The concentration of political power in the
contrary to what might have been a priori
capital of the Tarawa atoll, abandoning the
believed, small islands do not present such
self-management system specific to each
marginal situations. Consequently they have
atoll.
important lessons to teach, including the three
3. The replacement of a rich and complex
main issues that emerge from this article.
traditional law by simplistic written law.
4. The replacement of a subsistence economy
Firstly, the vulnerability of coastal areas to future
by a market econom.
environmental change does not only depend
5. the disintegration of the traditional land
on rising sea level and intensification of extreme
tenure system.
events. Although this review demonstrates that
these two pressure factors are very important,
A population boom in the atoll-capital also
they are often the only ones to be blamed in
characterizes the last decades, mainly due to
vulnerability assessments carried out in coastal
progress made in the field of health. The strong
areas. The analysis based on these factors only
population growth of Kiribati – from 38,000 in
is therefore too biased as it does not take into
1963 to over 103,000 in 2010 - representing +
account the consequences of global warming
171% - is mainly concentrated in the urban
nor ocean acidification which are capable of
district of South Tarawa. This island is now home
weakening the core of the resource systems of
to half the country’s population on only 2% of
island territories, in particular the fundamental
the territory, with an average population density
links of the food chain at the coast (coral reefs,
of 3125 inhabitants per km2. This situation is the
for example) as well as offshore (phytoplankton,
cause for (i) a rapid degradation of ecosystems
for example).
and resources, (ii) a loss of identity and cultural
connection to the environment, and (iii) a high
Secondly, this vulnerability does not only
population exposure to sea-related hazards due
depend on pressures related to nature, such
to the settlement of flood-prone and unstable
as the occasional hazards as well as the more
areas, and (iv) a growing dependence towards
gradual changes in environmental conditions.
international aid and food imports.
Anthropogenic factors will also play a decisive
role in the future of the islands and, in a larger
Finally, all of these transformations, put into the
sense, of their coasts (Duvat and Magnan,
perspectives of the first and second sections
2014). Knowing that climate change and ocean
(weakening of coral reefs, coastal erosion,
acidification are genuine threats - it would be
marine inundation, scarcity of water resources,
irresponsible and dangerous to deny it – the
etc.), can largely explain the vulnerability
extent of tomorrow’s difficulties are closely related
of Kiribati to climate change and ocean
to both current unsustainable occupation of land
acidification.
area and exploitation of resources.

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Finally, if immediate proactive policies could climate change and ocean acidification. The
be triggered for the readjustment of territories, identification of anthropogenic pressure factors
for environmental protection and for the presently at work finally provides many clues for
modification of the relationship between imagining and starting to implement adjustments
human communities and their economies and to environmental changes (Magnan, 2013).
the marine and coastal resources, a major step Human responsibilities are powerful levers that
forward would be made towards adaptation to must be used to reduce future threats.

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Informing
Adrien Comte,
Linwood Pendleton,
Emmanuelle Quillérou,

Climate
Denis Bailly

Investment Priorities
for Coastal
Populations
Since the 1990s, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has used global level
analyses of vulnerability to inform investment and action against the effects of climate change.
Beyond the IPCC, the practice has been used widely to understand the vulnerability of coastal
areas to a variety of hazards, including climate change. These analyses, however, have
been driven by objectives that change from one assessment to the next, with very different
conceptualisations of vulnerability. Over time these analyses have become increasingly data
intensive and complex, drawing from an ever-expanding number of indicators. Such variations
in objectives, conceptualisations and data have led to different and often contradictory
rankings of priority areas for climate change action. The increased complexity makes it more
difficult to disentangle the root causes of these different rankings and the degree to which
climate change influences vulnerability rankings, compared to other factors such as local
environment factors and the adaptive capacity of populations to deal with environmental
change. If these global indicator analyses were deconstructed, climate decision-makers
could use them as scoping studies rather than expect them to provide comprehensive and
robust priorities for investment. Such scoping studies, if they are to be truly useful to climate
decision-makers, need to be simplified and harmonised to isolate climate change specific
drivers. They can help target the locations for more in-depth local level analyses and should
be supplemented by global level analyses of costs of climate action including technical,
social and economic factors.

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THE NEED FOR GLOBAL In practice, though, indicator-based

vulnerability analyses have faced challenges
LEVEL ANALYSES TO IDENTIFY when applied at a global level. Hinkel (2011)
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS argues that vulnerability analysis was originally
designed and is best suited for application
ON COASTAL POPULATIONS at the local level and not the global level.
AND THEIR LIVELIHOODS Indicator-based vulnerability analyses at the
global level continue to be subject to much
FOR INFORMED ACTION debate within the research community. There is
no agreed upon approach to global indicator-
More frequent extreme weather events such
based vulnerability analysis which has resulted in
as 2005 hurricane Katrina in the USA and 2013
a variety of applications, even for those focused
typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) in the Philippines
specifically on marine and coastal applications,
provide a preview of the kind of disasters
and a drive for such analyses to become more
that may accompany climate change and
data intensive and “comprehensive” over time.
the need to identify areas at particular risk to
While all global vulnerability analyses contain
mitigate their impact. Other long-term changes,
useful data, the assumptions and final scores
such as sea-level rise, ocean acidification,
used for prioritising countries produced by
and changes in sea surface temperature
such analyses are difficult to use to understand
are expected to put millions of people and
climate vulnerability and thus opportunities for
billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure at risk
climate-related investment.
(Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014; Ocean and
Climate, 2015). Article 4.4 of the United Nations
The challenges that confront the global level
Framework Convention on Climate Change
application of vulnerability analyses for use in
(UNFCCC) states that developed countries
targeting climate-related investment include:
shall “[...] assist the developing country parties
• a lack of harmonised conceptualisation of
that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse
vulnerability and associated concepts, in
effects of climate change in meeting costs of
particular impact and adaptive capacity,
adaptation to those adverse effects” (emphasis
• added to an ever expanding number of
added) (United Nations, 1992). In addition,
variables used for such analyses, many of
international development targets such as the
which are not available reliably at the global
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the
level, resulting in increased complexity of
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have
analysis and combination of very different
created a demand for scientific assessments at
metrics together which make it difficult to
the global level that can help inform climate
isolate climate impacts on populations from
and development investment and action.
other factors,
• a lack of consideration of the costs of
Global level indicator-based vulnerability
action in addition to climate vulnerability
analyses have become very popular as a tool
and impacts.
to identify “developing country parties that are
particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects
If they are to be useful to decision-makers who
of climate change” who will receive help from
are focused on issues of climate change, current
less vulnerable countries, in the form of financial
global level analyses should not be designed
transfers to “[meet the] costs of adaptation to
and applied as comprehensive studies but
those adverse effects” (United Nations, 1992). The
rather as scoping studies that focus clearly on
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
the basic pathways that link climate change
(IPCC) was an early adopter of global level
to impacts on people, without extending the
indicator-based vulnerability analyses in order
analysis to determine overall vulnerability which
to identify more vulnerable places in particular
is context specific. These global level “impact
need of assistance to combat climate change.
analyses” then could be supplemented by more

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refined local level analyses and analyses of IPCC for vulnerability analyses at the global
costs of action to provide information useful to level between 2001 and 2014 (Figure 1a,b).
climate action and investment from the global In the Third Assessment Report, vulnerability
down to the local level (an example at the local was defined as “a function of the character,
level is the cost effectiveness analysis by Ramirez magnitude and rate of climate variation to
et al., forthcoming). which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its
adaptive capacity” (Schneider and Sarukhan,
2001, p. 90, Figure 1a). In the Fifth Assessment
CONTRASTED Report, the definition of vulnerability changes to
CONCEPTUALISATIONS “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely
affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety
OF VULNERABILITY AND of concepts and elements including sensitivity
ASSOCIATED CONCEPTS or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity
to cope and adapt” (Oppenheimer et al., 2014,
Vulnerability is a concept that is intuitively p.1046, Figure 1b). The concept is also applied
understandable and simple, allowing for from a variety of perspectives in the IPCC
integration of physical, ecological, and human reports (vulnerability of ecosystems, populations,
impacts of climate change. The concept the economy) potentially adding to possible
emerged in relation to disaster management confusion over the message conveyed.
at the local level (e.g. Weichselgartner, 2001)
and has evolved over time to be used by Even though conceptualisations differ for
interdisciplinary research on a number of the definition of vulnerability, the core of the
topics including climate change (Turner et al., vulnerability framework remains relatively
2003). However, the vulnerability concept lacks unchanged and can be boiled down to its
harmonised definition and measurement for components of hazard, exposure, sensitivity,
consistent practical applications (Adger, 2006), adaptive capacity and vulnerability (Figure 2,
which means it is difficult to choose among see Schneider and Sarukhan, 2001 and Ionescu
competing approaches or to understand et al., 2009 for more information). Key differences
their differences. between the frameworks lie in the way the
relationship between vulnerability and the other
The lack of a harmonised definition for factors is formalised, and the feedbacks and
vulnerability can be best illustrated through actions that influence and are influenced by
the evolution of the framework used by the vulnerability - namely adaptation, mitigation,

Human Interference CLIMATE CHANGE

including variability

Exposure

Initial Impacts
VULNERABILITIES

MITIGATION
of Climate Change or Effects
IMPACTS

via GHG Sources

and Sinks
Autonomous
Adaptations

Planned
Residual or ADAPTATION
Net Impacts to the Impacts
and Vulnerabilities

(a) Policy Responses (b)

Fig.1 — 2001 and 2014 conceptual frameworks used by the IPCC for vulnerability analyses. Sources: (a) Places
of adaptation in the climate change issue (Schneider and Sarukhan, 2001, p.90) (b) Schematic of the interaction
among the physical climate system, exposure, and vulnerability producing risk (Oppenheimer et al., 2014, p.1046).

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What is at stake? establishment of global analyses that help

Exposure
Hazard event
(ecological and human)
Sensitivity set up clear priorities for climate investment
and action.
• Economic wealth
What is Potential Adaptive • Technology and
at risk? impacts capacity* infrastructure
• Information,
WHAT DO GLOBAL VULNERABILITY
knowledge and skills
• Institutions
• Equity
ANALYSES ACTUALLY REVEAL:
Vulnerability
• Social capital
•… UNDERSTANDING CONFLICTING
VULNERABILITY RANKINGS FROM
Fig.2 — Contributing factors to potential impacts CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON
and vulnerability (adapted from Schneider and Sa-
rukhan, 2001 and Ionescu et al., 2009). Non bold: (Des- COASTAL HUMAN POPULATIONS
criptive) factors contributing to vulnerability; bold: pre-
dictive and speculative outcomes; * Adaptive capacity Conceptual differences and different indicators
tends to be the most context specific. used in global analyses of coastal and marine
risks have led to very different rankings of
and governance. This flexibility in the framework priorities for countries at risk. Table 1 shows a
makes the vulnerability concept well suited to large number of different countries that appear
analysis at the local level, where more context- in the top 10 in terms of vulnerability or poor
specific information is available (Hinkel, 2011). ocean health. Of these, 35 appear in the top 10
It makes however the concept more difficult to of only one of the reports.
use at the global level in a consistent way, which
would require more of a ‘blueprint’ approach to In an effort to be more comprehensive and
be a comparative guide to investment across to reflect the different abilities of coastal
different types of risks and social contexts. populations to deal with climate change,
recent indicator-based global level analyses
A number of global indicator analyses, applied include coping and adaptive capacities. All
to marine resources, have been conducted by but one of these studies includes measures of
academics (e.g. Allison et al., 2009; Barange capacity (Harrould-Kolieb et al., 2009). There
et al., 2014; Cooley et al., 2012, Hughes et al., are two immediate consequences of the use
2012; Halpern et al., 2012) and NGOs (Burke of capacity measures in these analyses. First,
et al., 2011; Beck, 2014; Harrould-Kolieb et developed countries that face large potential
al., 2009, Huelsenbeck 2012) to assess ocean impacts from climate change never rank high
health and the specific risks faced by coral – even though the value of needed climate-
reefs and the people that depend upon them. change related investment may be extremely
Each has appropriated and redefined the core large. Second, it becomes difficult to know,
concepts of the approach differently. Even using final scores alone, whether a high indicator
when definitions are common, the indicators score is due to vulnerability caused by climate
and corresponding datasets used to measure change or inherent vulnerabilities caused by
hazard, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity demographic, political, and social factors. Some
as well as the formulae used to calculate empirical work suggests that global adaptive
vulnerability itself vary across these studies, capacity indicators can be identified (Brooks et
mostly in relation to available data and specific al., 2005) but they so far reflect generic issues
focus of these studies. such as education and poverty that may be very
important for development and well-being but
Lack of agreed definition and measure of not necessarily for dealing with sectoral impacts
vulnerability, ambiguous use of the concept for of climate change (Hughes et al., 2012).
multiple perspectives (what/who is vulnerable
to what changes), have partly impaired the

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A TWO-TIERED APPROACH FOR a. climate action may be warranted

(mitigation, adaptation or other),
GLOBAL ANALYSIS TO INFORM b. additional, finer scaled vulnerability analysis
CLIMATE INVESTMENT AND ACTION may provide crucial information to set up
appropriate policy action, and
To avoid the challenges described above and c. monitoring and science may yield socially
to move towards a more transparent approach relevant results.
to global indicator analyses that can be used to
identify climate action, we need a simplification The scores used to rank countries could be
and harmonisation of analyses to understand presented by impact or as a summary measure
the impacts of climate change, and global of how high-ranked countries scored across
environmental change, at the global level for the impacts considered. Global-level scoping
coastal human populations. analyses based on impacts are meant to guide
more refined and more data-intensive local
Specifically, we suggest a two-tiered approach level analyses, but do not aim to replace such
for classifying existing studies to better identify local level analyses. Ideally, such analyses are
common elements, and guide further global accompanied by a global scale analysis of
analysis (Figure 3): technical, economic and social costs of action
for comparison to potential benefits from impact
1. GLOBAL LEVEL IMPACT ANALYSES (first tier): At mitigation and adaptation.
the global level, we should focus on simplified
and more standardised scoping analyses for 2. LOCAL LEVEL ANALYSES (second tier): The glo-
which good global data are available. These bal scoping analyses will identify places where
simpler approaches should link climate change more thorough, and more comprehensive local
directly to impact, be limited to impacts, and level analyses can be used to identify concrete
not include measures of adaptive capacity so investment actions and the degree to which
as to clearly separate development issues from these places are vulnerable to climate change.
threats driven by climate change. A focus on At the local level, more refined, data-intensive
global-level impact analyses can help identify analysis can be used to better understand local
countries where: impacts of global and local changes and be-

Reef at Ocean
Oceana Oceana
risk revisited Coasts at risk Health Index
RanK Allison et al., 2009 (Harrould-Kolieb et (Huelsenbeck,
(Burke et (Beck, 2014) (Halpern et
al., 2009) 2012)
al., 2011) al., 2014)
Antigua-and- Saint- Vincent-
1 Comoros Angola Japan Comoros
Barbuda and- Grenadines
2 Fiji Tonga RD Congo Haïti France Togo
Saint-Kitts-
3 Grenada Russian Federation Ivory Coast United Kingdom Cook Islands
and-Nevis
4 Haïti Vanuatu Mauritania Sierra Leone Netherlands Kiribati
5 Indonesia Fiji Senegal Nicaragua Australia Erythrea
Brunei
6 Kiribati Mali Libya New Zealand Mozambique
Darussalam
7 Philippines Bangladesh Sierra Leone RD Congo Philippines Madagascar
8 Tanzania Philippines Mozambique East Timor United States Pakistan
9 Vanuatu Seychelles Niger Dominica Malaysia Sierra Leone
10 Kiribati Peru Liberia Indonesia Thailand

Table1 — Examples of rankings for coastal communities at risk from climate change. In bold, countries found
in the top 10 of only one of the reports.

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Global-level relevant data are available. The first tier allows

scoping analysis
(first tier) for meaningful policy recommendations at the
global level, while the second tier provides the
needed flexibility in relation to changing spatial
Identification of possible impacts
and impact pathways that are and human contexts.
locally relevant

Such a two-tiered approach still requires

Local-level more continued improvements in the quality and
in-depth analysis*
(second tier) quantity of natural and social science data.
While natural science data regarding climate,
oceanography, corals and fisheries continues
to improve, human data lag behind, especially
data about local fisheries, tourism and the
built environment.
Local scientifically
informed climate
investment and action
CONCLUSION

The first tier of the two-tiered approach could

Fig.3 — Stratégie à deux niveaux pour l'analyse be useful to identify all countries that are likely
scientifique et l’action informée (*comprend l'étude
to experience large direct or indirect impacts
et le suivi de la vulnérabilité).
from climate change. If applied to a pool
haviours. Such analyses would include, but not of recipient countries alone (i.e. developing
be limited to, vulnerability analyses, and would countries under Article 4.4 of the UNFCCC
help identify key environmental and ecological receiving international transfers), such a tier
factors affecting human dependencies which could be used to identify places where foreign
are most impacted by climate change. There assistance to meeting the costs of adaptation
already exists a number of relevant local level under the UNFCCC may be most useful. The
analyses which have been successfully applied second tier could be used by developed and
in developed and developing countries that developing countries alike to inform more fine-
could be better used to understand climate tuned context-appropriate investment within
impacts and actions (e.g. Cinner et al., 2012; countries, and not just international transfers.
Ekstrom et al., 2015; Yusuf and Francisco, 2010; This second tier can consider different types of
Arias et al., forthcoming; Sajise et al., forthco- action, including climate change action but
ming). not exclusively, and different investment options
into mitigation, adaptation and science.
This two-tiered approach is a pragmatic way to
make the most of available data, approaches In addition to the two tiers proposed here, we
and scientific methods to undertake meaningful also urge a parallel but separate global scale
analyses that can guide climate action and analysis of costs of action including technical,
help prioritise efforts where most urgently social and economic factors is conducted. The
needed. It also helps provide a global-level, combination of the two-tiered approach and
transparent framework while keeping local global scale analysis of costs of action should
flexibility for climate investment and action provide necessary information for informed
from the global down to the local level. Like climate investment and action.
vulnerability analysis, the approach combines
natural and social sciences to understand the
potential impacts on people of climate change,
but it does so at levels that better match the
social science concepts to the scale at which

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AUTHORS
Denis Allemand Catherine Jeandel
Centre Scientifique de Monaco. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS),
Denis Bailly Laboratoire d’Études en Géophysique et Océanographie
Université de Bretagne Occidentale, UMR AMURE, IUEM, Brest. Spatiales (LEGOS), Toulouse.
Gilles Bœuf Eric Karsenti
Museum National d’Histoire Naturelle (MNHN) and Université Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS),
Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC) Banyuls-sur-Mer. European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL), École
Laurent Bopp Normale Supérieure (ENS), Paris.
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Nadine Le Bris
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Laboratoire
(LSCE), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), GIEC, Gif-sur-Yvette. d’Écogéochimie des Environnements Benthiques (LECOB),
Chris Bowler Banyuls-sur-Mer.
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École Lisa Levin
Normale Supérieure (ENS), Département de Biologie, Paris. Scripps Institute of Oceanography, San Diego.
Denise Breitburg Alexandre Magnan
Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater. Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations
Adrien Comte Internationales (IDDRI), Sciences Po, Paris.
Université de Bretagne Occidentale, UMR AMURE, IUEM, Brest. Herlé Mercier
Annie Cudennec Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS),
Université de Bretagne Occidentale, UMR AMURE, IUEM, Brest. Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique (LPO), Institut
Philippe Cury Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), Ifremer, Université
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Sète. de Bretagne occidentale, Brest.
Virginie Duvat Benoit Meyssignac
Université de la Rochelle, Centre National de la Recherche Centre National d'Études Spatiales (CNES), Laboratoire
Scientifique (CNRS), Littoral Environnement et Sociétés (LIENSs), d’Études en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale
GIEC. (LEGOS), Toulouse.
Françoise Gaill Marc Metian
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Laboratoire
Écologie et Environnement (INEE), Paris. Environnement, Monaco.
Véronique Garçon Rémi Mongruel
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Ifremer, UMR AMURE, IUEM, Brest.
Laboratoire d’Études en Géophysique et Océanographie Linwood Pendleton
Spatiales (LEGOS), Toulouse. Université de Bretagne Occidentale, UMR AMURE, IUEM, Brest,
Jean-Pierre Gattuso Duke University’s Nicholas Institute.
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Emmanuelle Quillérou
Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), GIEC, Villefranche- Université de Bretagne Occidentale, UMR AMURE, IUEM, Brest
sur-Mer. Gilles Reverdin
Marilaure Gregoire Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS),
Interfacultary Center for Marine Research, Liege University Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations
(MARE-ULG), Liège. et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre Simon
Lionel Guidi Laplace (IPSL), Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Paris.
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Sabrina Speich
Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Villefranche-sur-Mer. École Normale Supérieure (ENS), Laboratoire de Météorologie
Lina Hansson Dynamique (LMD), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris.
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Luis Valdés
Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), GIEC, Villefranche- Commission Océanographique Intergouvernementale de
sur-Mer. l’Unesco (IOC-UNESCO), Paris.
Kirsten Isensee Colomban de Vargas
Commission Océanographique Intergouvernementale de Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS),
l’Unesco (IOC-UNESCO), Paris. Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Roscoff.
Mathilde Jacquot
Université de Bretagne Occidentale, UMR AMURE, IUEM, Brest.

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Scientific committee
Françoise Gaill
CNRS – Scientific Committee Coordinator

Denis Allemand Nadine Le Bris

Centre scientifique de Monaco UPMC
Denis Bailly Lisa Levin
UBO Scripps institution of oceanography
Julian Barbière Alexandre Magnan
IOC UNESCO IDDRI
Gilles Bœuf Herlé Mercier
MNHN UPMC CNRS
Laurent Bopp Marc Metian
CNRS AIEA
Chris Bowler Gilles Reverdin
CNRS ENS CNRS
Biliana Cicin-Sain Sabrina Speich
Global Ocean Forum ENS
Philippe Cury Lisa Emelia Svensson
IRD Sweden’s Ambassador for the Oceans, Seas
Paul Falkowski and Fresh Water
Rutgers University Luis Valdés
Albert Fisher IOC UNESCO
IOC UNESCO Marjan Van Den Belt
Jean-Pierre Gattuso Massey University
CNRS IPCC Colomban de Vargas
Catherine Jeandel CNRS
CNRS
Eric Karsenti
CNRS EMBL
Ocean and Climate
Platform
Involving the Ocean in the debate on Climate Change

Launched at UNESCO in June 2014, the Ocean and Climate platform is a multi-stakeholder
structure including members of the scientific community, non-profit organizations and
business organizations that are all concerned about the ocean. It aims to place the
ocean at the heart of international climate change debates, particularly at the Paris
Climate 2015 conference.

The Scientific Committee of the Platform is comprised of world-renowned scientists in

the fields of oceanography, biodiversity and ecology of the marine environment, but
also from social and economic sciences related to the ocean. The texts included here
represent an initial synthesis on the key points of ocean and climate issues. They form an
essential scientific basis for all, from citizens to decision makers who are implicated in the
negotiations and decisions taken within the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, particularly during the COP 21 in Paris in December 2015.

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