d4
d4
d4
Dartmouth College
MILAN VAISHNAV†
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
*sandip.sukhtankar@dartmouth.edu
†mvaishnav@ceip.org
§We thank our discussants Devesh Kapur and Karthik Muralidharan, the Editor, Shekhar
Shah, and Pranab Bardhan, Vijay Joshi, and other participants at the 2014 India Policy Forum
for comments. William Hayes and Danielle Smogard provided excellent research assistance.
Milan Vaishnav would like to acknowledge financial support from the Smith Richardson
Foundation. All errors are our own.
193
194 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
1. Introduction
India and formulating solutions to address its spread. This gap exists for
several reasons.
For starters, corruption is by its very nature difficult to objectively
measure. Most corrupt transactions transpire out of public view and the
parties involved have incentives to keep it that way. What emerges from
media reporting is, by definition, ex post and often sensationalist in nature.
For example, the media focuses on “scams” that involve billions of rupees
worth of malfeasance; yet our calculations suggest that the costs of day-to-
day corruption are at least of the same order of magnitude, if not higher. We
compiled an inventory of the biggest public corruption scandals uncovered
after the year 2000,1 finding that the amounts involved sum up to hundreds
of billions of dollars (the mean scam “value” was `36,000 crore, and the
median `12,000 crore; see Table 1).2 Eye-popping as these numbers are,
the costs of day-to-day corruption are comparable: e.g., Muralidharan et al.
(2014b) calculate the annual costs of teacher absence to be in the range of
`8,100–9,300 crore; Transparency International and CMS (2005) estimate
the costs of bribes paid annually for accessing various government services
across India to be `21,000 crore. Hence, attention-grabbing one-off scandals
may deflect attention from corruption that is just as costly, but is harder to
find and measure.
Second, while the existing social science literature has established some
theories of corruption, these have produced markedly divergent predictions
about both the causes and consequences of corruption. In particular, existing
theory is ambiguous about whether corruption is bad for the economy. An
old literature suggests that corruption “greases the wheels” of the economy
by providing incentives for bureaucrats to work harder, and also by allow-
ing firms and individuals to get around costly and inefficient red-tape and
regulations (Huntington 1968, Leff 1964). Another strand of thought predicts
that corruption may have no efficiency effects, only redistributive ones;
e.g., if the most efficient firm is the one that can pay the highest bribes to
1. While there is no precise formula for determining what constitutes a big scandal, we
began by scanning lists of “corruption scams” compiled by news outlets (India Today, Outlook,
NitiCentral, Yahoo, DNA) over the past several years. We then created a shortlist so that
only scams that featured on multiple lists were included. For some number of scams, it was
difficult to find the level of detail we wanted, so we excluded these. Table 1 summarizes the
28 scandals we examine.
2. Not all of these amounts involve losses to the government and, moreover, these amounts
must be viewed with caution, since the media tends to inflate and focus on the largest numbers.
Indeed, the “costs” written up in the media conflate the value of bribes that changed hands, pure
theft or embezzlement from the government of various sorts, cheating the exchequer out of the
appropriate value of assets, as well as private losses in which one party simply cons the other.
TABLE 1. Major Corruption Scandals in India in the 21st Century
Name Date Years Sector State Cost (`Crore) Cost type
Taj Heritage Corridor Scam 2002–03 2 Construction Uttar Pradesh 175 Embezzlement
Uttar Pradesh NRHM Scam 2005–11 7 Construction Uttar Pradesh 10,000 Embezzlement
Tatra Trucks Scam 1997–11 15 Defense N/A 750 Bribes
Agusta Westland Chopper Deal Scam 2010–13 4 Defense N/A 450 Bribes
Calcutta Stock Market Scam 2001 1 Financial West Bengal 120 Private fraud
Telgi Stamp Scam 2003–13 11 Financial Maharashtra, others 43,000 Private fraud
IPO Demat Scam 2003–05 3 Financial N/A 146 Private fraud
Saradha Group Chit Fund Scam 2006–13 8 Financial West Bengal, others 20,000 Private fraud
Sahara India Pariwar - Investor Fraud Case 2008–10 3 Financial Uttar Pradesh 24,000 Private fraud
Kerala Solar Panel Scam 2010–13 4 Financial Kerala 7 Private fraud
Rice Export Scam 2008–09 2 Food grains N/A 2,500 Value loss to govt.
Uttar Pradesh Food Grain Scam 2002–10 9 Food grains Uttar Pradesh 35,000 Embezzlement
Gegong Apang Public Distribution System Scam 1995–04 10 Food grains Arunachal Pradesh 1,000 Embezzlement
Antrix Devas/ISRO Spectrum Allocation Scam 2005–11 7 IT N/A 2,00,000 Value loss to govt.
2G Spectrum Scam 2008 1 IT N/A 56,000 Value loss to govt.
Satyam Computer Services Scandal 2009 1 IT N/A 14,162 Private fraud
Karnataka Wakf Board Scam 1954–11 58 Land Karnataka 2,00,000 Value loss to govt.
Maharastra Adarsh Housing Society Scam 2003–10 8 Land Maharastra 163 Value loss to govt.
Andhra Pradesh Land Scam 2006–12 7 Land Andhra Pradesh 1784 Value loss to govt.
Noida Corporation Farm Land Scandal 2009–11 3 Land Uttar Pradesh 5,000 Value loss to govt.
Maharashtra Irrigation Scam 1999–09 11 Land Maharashtra 35,000 Embezzlement
Odisha Mine Scam 2000–10 11 Mining Odisha 50,000 Value loss to govt.
Coalgate 2004–12 9 Mining N/A 1,86,000 Value loss to govt.
Bellary Mining Scandal 2005–11 7 Mining Karnataka, 21,000 Value loss to govt.
Andhra Pradesh
Jharkhand Mining Scam 2006–09 4 Mining Jharkhand 3,400 Value loss to govt.
Goa Mining Scam 2009–11 2 Mining Goa 35,000 Value loss to govt.
Cash for Votes Scandal 2008 1 Political N/A 50 Bribes
CWG Scam 2010 1 Procurement N/A 70,000 Embezzlement
Source: Authors' compilation from various media sources. Full details provided in Appendix A in paper on first author's website, http://www.dartmouth.edu/~sandip/Sukhtankar-
Vaishnav-Corruption-IPF_Full.pdf
198 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
3. However, some of the scams that we identify in Table 1 involve financial sector fraud
with only private actors.
4. Technically speaking, the issues of political finance and discretionary transfers and
postings are both drivers of corruption, as well as corrupt outcomes in and of themselves. In
the latter regard, they are manifestations of collusive and/or extractive corruption.
200 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
this simple framework, we then draw on research from both economics and
political science to describe the magnitudes, causes, and consequences of
each of these types of corruption.
Section 4 discusses broad strategies for combating corruption, describes
major recent anticorruption legislation either passed or under discussion, and
explores academic evidence that evaluates the effectiveness of both broad
strategies and particular legislation in combating corruption. In Section 5,
we discuss India’s unique political economy of reform and what, if anything,
India can learn from the historical record. In Section 6, we conclude with
some parting lessons.
It is important to note that our focus is on academic research that has
rigorously evaluated causal relationships with the best quality data and infor-
mation possible. Given the vastness of the literature on corruption in India,
we were compelled to narrow our parameters in this way. Furthermore,
with an eye towards distilling the major takeaways of this literature and
extracting the core policy prescriptions that emerge, we have generally tried
to avoid discussions of empirical methodology. In so doing, we follow a
template similar to that pursued by Muralidharan (2013) in his review of
education in India.
2. Causes of Corruption
and gas, mining, and heavy industry (Rajan 2012). The possibilities of quid
pro quos are especially high in these areas, as the allocation of rights over
natural resources has been poorly defined historically and virtually all but
ignored by successive economic reforms.
Two facts result from this state of affairs. First, the regulatory intensity
of the state with respect to private business activity not only minimizes the
role for market forces, but also facilitates a natural quid pro quo whereby
the state provides licenses, permissions, clearances, etc. in exchange for side
payments. This is why India reliably rates poorly on most perception-based
indicators of corruption and bribery.
Second, corruption is most intense in those sectors where the regulatory
footprint of the state is the greatest. Consider, for instance, the sectoral
breakdown of our inventory of scams listed in Table 1. The clustering
of scams within certain sectors is quite instructive; the mining and land
sectors are most commonly represented, accounting for 35 percent of the
total (10 of 28). This category includes scams such as the now infamous
“Coalgate” scandal, in which the Comptroller and Auditor General of India
(CAG) accused the Union Government of allocating almost 200 coal blocks
without a competitive bidding process between 2004 and 2009. The CAG
alleged that private firms paid far less than what they would have had the
licenses been auctioned. Many of these firms were owned by, or closely
linked with, sitting politicians, implying that political criteria were used to
allocate licenses.
As argued above, this interaction of regulatory intensity and corruption
is in line with our priors, as these areas represent obvious sources of rents
in the economic sense of the word—they are sectors of the economy where
the regulatory intensity of the state is immense and the opportunities for
bribes or kickbacks are legion. The values involved are also generally high
in these sectors, given their centrality to the broader economy.
of 20 (G-20) nations, with only 146 public sector employees per 10,000
residents (Figure 1). Compared to China (537), the USA and Germany (both
about 730), or Russia (1534), this number is remarkably low. Even this low
number is likely an overestimate of administrative capacity, given that it
includes employment in the state-owned Indian Railways, one of the larg-
est employers in the world. Furthermore, the overall strength of the public
sector has declined since 2001, although this partially reflects a divestment
from public sector enterprises and a move to greater contract employment,
rather than a reduction in administrative capacity per se (Figure 2).
Nevertheless, what the relatively small number of public employees
means for a country India’s size is that the administrative service has an
enormous burden placed on it to not only implement the plethora of schemes
and regulations in place but also to enforce them. For example, the chief
administrative officer of the most relevant administrative unit for imple-
menting public programs in India—the district collector—is also the official
in charge of law and order in a district, which has on average 2 million
inhabitants. While these officers are selected from the cream of the crop of
the Indian Administrative Service (IAS), given the enormous burden placed
on their shoulders, the decks are stacked against them from the beginning.
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Russian Federation
Canada
United Kingdom
France
China
Australia
Germany
United States
Italy
Brazil
Argentina
Japan
Indonesia
Turkey
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
India
Sources: International Labor Organization; Saudi Arabia Ministry of Economy and Planning; China National
Bureau of Statistics; World Bank.
204 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
20 19.1 19.1
17.5
Public employment (million)
15.5
15
10.7
10
0
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Year
Source: Economic Survey of India (various years).
30%
25% 22.3%
20%
15%
10%
6.5%
5%
0%
Supreme Court High Courts District/Subordinate Courts
Source: Supreme Court of India, Court News (various years).
Note: Measured at 12/31/2013 for Supreme and High Courts, 9/30/2013 for District/Subordinate.
surprise to anyone in India, but the figures do not make for enjoyable read-
ing. As of 2011, approximately 24 percent of court cases had been pending
for at least five years, while 9 percent had been pending for more than 10
years (Law Commission of India 2014). At the start of 2014, there were a
total of 31.4 million cases pending across all courts in India (Figure 4). While
the situation is slowly improving—for all courts the number of outstanding
cases on January 1, 2013 was higher than the end of year figures—the sheer
level of backlog induces despair.
We discuss initiatives to tackle these administrative and judicial issues
in the final section. But as of now, we merely stipulate the fact that India’s
capacity to enforce rules and regulations in virtually every domain is
severely wanting.
2,00,000
1,50,000
1,00,000
50,000
0
Supreme High (100s) District/Subordinate (100s)
Source: Supreme Court of India, Court News (various years).
5. For instance, Gingerich (2014) takes advantage of a police investigation in Brazil into
an illicit campaign spending scheme which took place in the run-up to the elections in the
Brazilian state of Minas Gerais in 1998. Based on police reports, which contain detailed bank
transactions listing the names of those who received under-the-table election funds, he is able
to analyze the allocation of payments to local vote brokers and estimate their effect on election
outcomes. Mironov and Zhuravskaya (2014) aim to measure illicit payments by firms to politi-
cians in Russia. The authors find that firms involved in government procurement substantially
increase “tunneling” (defined as transfers by legitimate firms to fly-by-night firms established
with the purpose of taking cash out of companies) around regional elections. These illicit flows
exhibit a political business cycle, in contrast with firms not involved in public procurement.
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 209
6. Bhavnani concludes that 4–9 percent of election winners appear “suspect,” since their
asset growth is greater than what they would have earned based on their salaries (and perks)
as lawmakers.
210 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
7. A descriptive analysis by Sastry (2014) confirms this association as does a more sys-
tematic regression approach by Dutta and Gupta (2014).
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 211
candidate spends nine years outside the labor force simply trying to get a
public sector job, it is quite likely that this expenditure in terms of opportu-
nity cost and investment in studying must again be recouped. On the other
end of the spectrum, wages for top level administrators lag behind their
counterparts in the private sector, increasing the temptation to be corrupt.
For example, Krishnan and Somanathan point out that wage compression
(at least until the 1990s) “led to a loss of morale and an excuse and justifi-
cation for corruption.”
Finally, there is little reward to performing well, and worse, rarely any
punishment to nonperformance. The entrenched power of employee unions
and onerous government regulations means that, short of murder, it is nearly
impossible to fire a public sector employee. The news media recently
reported on the amazing case of a government official who did not show
up for his job for 24 years, yet continued to draw salary while numerous
attempts were made to fire him (Agence France-Presse, 2015). Krishnan
and Somanathan suggest euphemistically that “judicial interpretation and,
in particular judicial leniency to civil servants who perform inefficiently,
has reduced efficiency.” Under such circumstances, the only surprise is that
there remain honest public officials at all.
8. The bill’s full title is: the Right of Citizens for Time Bound Delivery of Goods and
Services and Grievance Redressal Bill, 2011.
214 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
9. Besley et al. (2007) examine data from four south Indian states and find that while
local-level politicians target BPL cards to households which are relatively disadvantaged
on average, households in which politicians themselves are living are much more likely to
possess BPL cards.
216 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
states obtain from the Food Corporation of India (FCI)) of rice and wheat
to NSS survey reports of grains received by beneficiaries from Fair Price
Shops (FPS, or ration shops), she finds that the overall rate of diversion in
India in 2007–08 was about 44 percent. Estimates range from essentially
no diversion in Chhattisgarh to almost 90 percent diversion in Bihar. These
estimates are likely to be the upper bound of pure leakage, since some of
the grains that do not reach beneficiaries may simply be due to losses in
transport or spoilage or other mismanagement.
These estimates are very close to the Government of India’s own esti-
mates of diversion in the TPDS. A report by the Planning Commission
(Programme Evaluation Organization 2005) finds that 58 percent of food
grains issued by the FCI do not reach the poor (defined as BPL families),
which is comparable to the 54 percent figure that Khera estimates for
2004–05. The report also monetizes the magnitude of the loss and the cost
of delivery, calculating that for every Rupee transferred to the poor, the
government spent `3.65. In other words, the poor obtain only 27 percent of
the benefits they are meant to receive.
In addition to pure theft, an insidious type of corruption involves public
sector employees not showing up to work when they are supposed to, or,
more broadly, shirking on the job. It is, in a way, similar to embezzlement,
since it effectively equates to theft of time from the government. However,
the causes, consequences, and strategies to combat this form of corruption
differ significantly. Absence or shirking on the job is common in the public
sector across the world, since disciplining public sector employees proves to
be difficult given strong unions and other political economy factors.
The consequences of absence could include long-run harm to human
capital, mainly through education and health, in the country. As Chaudhury,
Hammer et al. (2006) point out, absent health and education workers basi-
cally mean closed hospitals and schools in developing countries, since there
are no substitutes and many of them have single providers. The unpredict-
ability of absence may also discourage users from attempting to access
these services in the first place. Moreover, alternatives to public schools
and hospitals may be too expensive and/or just as ineffective.
Chaudhury et al. (2006) conducted a representative survey across India to
measure absence amongst teachers and health care workers in government
schools and health centers. After conducting random checks of schools and
clinics during working hours, they found that the rate of absence of teachers
is 25 percent and health care workers 40 percent. This compares to 5 percent
in developed countries. Other work corroborates these absence findings in
smaller samples: Banerjee et al. (2010a) find 27 percent teacher absence
220 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
12. For example, Roberts (2010) reports that awareness of the RTIA in urban areas is three
times that in rural areas.
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 223
Thus, it appears that the RTIA is less about information than shifting the
bargaining power to applicants, and giving them a threat which they can
use credibly to potentially sanction the official. This interpretation fits our
framework above, and also helps explain why no other study which provides
information to applicants or beneficiaries finds any effect of providing this
information, whether in public works or education.
In the case of NREGA, e.g., Ravallion et al. (2013) conducted a large-
scale randomized trial in Bihar to test for the effects of providing infor-
mation to actual and potential program participants on their rights under
the act. Baseline levels of information about and participation in NREGS
were very low. While 56 percent of the rural population was BPL, only
about 10 percent participated, even though more than 75 percent of those
surveyed—5,000 rural individuals in 150 villages spread across rural
Bihar—had heard about NREGS. In the control group, only 22 percent knew
how many days they are allowed to work, 32 percent knew the wage rate,
29 percent knew about receiving unemployment insurance if work is not
provided within 15 days of applying, and almost no one knew that applicants
are supposed to get work within 15 days.
To test whether this situation could be remedied, the authors showed a
randomly selected treatment group of villages an educational, emotionally
captivating film about NREGS to the village. The intervention increased
knowledge of the program: a 53 percent increase in knowing about number
of days allowed to work, a 36 percent increase in people who know about
wage rate, a 33 percent increase in knowing about unemployment insurance,
and a 70 percent increase in knowledge of getting work within two weeks.
Despite this increase in awareness, however, reported survey outcomes on
actual or desired participation, wage rates or days worked remained entirely
unchanged. While the NREGA guarantees employment, on average partici-
pants said they would like 44 more days of work, so rationing was evident.
These results are also consistent with evidence from Odisha presented
in Niehaus and Sukhtankar (2013b). They survey a large sample of listed
NREGS participants in three districts in Odisha, and ask about days worked
and wages received around a time during which the official minimum wage
rate increased from `55 per day to `70 per day. While over 80 percent
of respondents knew about the wage change, and over 70 percent could
accurately name the new wage, on average almost no one working on
NREGS received a wage increase. The only exception to the rule was that
villages where an NGO was active received modestly higher wages after
the wage change, perhaps because these NGOs helped keep local officials
accountable.
224 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
13. Less than one percent of corrupt officials are actually removed from office or face
serious action; even mild punishments such as suspensions are meted out in fewer than three
percent of cases; and amazingly officials seem to be able to get away scot-free with their
earnings, since over 87 percent of embezzled amounts were not recovered three to seven
years after the audits.
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 225
purview, most importantly the Central Bureau for Investigation (CBI) and
political parties.14
While these attempts prove that the act has some bite, actual cases of
penalties and sanctions imposed are rare. For instance, several studies
(quoted in Roberts 2010) have found that State Information Commissions are
often reluctant to levy penalties on noncomplying officers since that would
unfairly penalize officers who lack training or experience or who have to
deal with systemic shortcomings. Meanwhile, anecdotal evidence grows
that the RTIA can be misused for competitive or personal gain; overall, a
rigorous analysis of the impact of this act is imperative.
A final transparency mechanism, which does not yet exist but is awaiting
parliamentary approval, is a central procurement portal, embedded within
the Public Procurement Bill (2012).15 The bill mandates the establishment
of a “Central Public Procurement Portal,” which would serve as a reposi-
tory for materials related to government procurement, such as documents
related to prequalification, registration and bidding, as well as participation
details and final decisions or appeals. While such a move is a good first step,
a real breakthrough could be achieved if the government were to consider
publishing actual government procurement contracts. Kenny and Karver
(2012) have argued that such “Publish What You Buy” provisions can not
only reduce corruption but also lower the costs of contracting to the benefit
of governments, contractors, and citizens.
4.2. Technology
Given the emergence of information technology services as a dynamic sector
of the Indian economy, state and central governments have often looked
towards technology as a potential silver bullet for tackling corruption. The
recently defeated UPA government embarked on an ambitious initiative—
Aadhaar—to deliver biometrically authenticated unique IDs to all residents
of India. Authorities believed that this initiative would revolutionize the
delivery of government services, with the Unique ID Authority claiming
that “Aadhaar will empower poor and underprivileged residents in accessing
services such as the formal banking system and give them the opportunity
to easily avail various other services provided by the Government and the
14. Parliament exempted the CBI from the RTI in 2011, while political parties are in a
pitched battle with the CIC, which ruled parties to be “public authorities” subject to RTI in
June 2013. We discuss the latter dispute in greater detail in Section 4.4.
15. The bill is pending before the Lok Sabha. More detail can be found in PRS Legislative
Research (2013).
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 227
16. http://uidai.gov.in/index.php?option=comcontent&view=article&id=58&Itemid=106,
accessed 3 October 2013.
228 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
previous section are combined with financial incentives, and, thus, we do not
discuss these studies in this section. The main lesson from these studies is
straightforward: high-powered incentives work, as long as they are enforced.
While financial or performance-based incentives for undertaking specific
actions may indeed work, there is also a potential concern that they may also
lead to negative consequences. For example, nurses may now show up to
work but put in less effort at work. Teachers paid on the basis of student test
scores may “teach to the test” at the expense of encouraging “real” learning.
Fortunately, evidence from a large-scale randomized experiment of gov-
ernment teachers in AP suggests that these types of concerns are perhaps
overblown (Muralidharan and Sundaraman 2011). Teachers in 300 govern-
ment schools in AP were randomly allocated incentive programs that gave
them bonuses of up to 3 percent of their salary based on the performance of
students on tests. After two years, student test scores improved significantly
in the subjects whose test results counted for bonuses: math and language.
Importantly, however, test scores also improved in subjects whose test
results did not count towards bonuses—science and social studies —suggest-
ing that enhanced teaching effort spilled over into these subjects. Moreover,
results were positive across the distribution of students, suggesting that
teachers did not just concentrate on the best or worst students.
In addition to the specific incentives described above, there is a long-
standing idea that government officials need to be paid more overall: they
are only corrupt because they are so poorly paid and need to supplement
their income through illicit activities. More generally, the idea that “effi-
ciency wages” could prevent corruption is very old, going back to at least
the seminal work by Becker and Stigler (1974). In practice, however, there
is little evidence that such measures will be effective.
Niehaus and Sukhtankar (2013a) indirectly test if efficiency wages mat-
ter for corruption, by checking whether increased illicit rents in the future
can reduce corruption today. Taking advantage of a change in wages in the
NREGS in Odisha that increased the possibility of higher rents to corrupt
officials in the future, they find that corruption indeed was significantly
lower today in areas that expected more lucrative projects to be forthcom-
ing. While on the one hand this provides support for the efficiency wage
hypothesis, the magnitudes of wage increases necessary to reduce corruption
are out of the range of what might be deemed feasible: they find that corrupt
rents were 100 to 1,100 times official wages.
A corollary to providing disincentives to engaging in corruption is to
provide incentives to uncover corruption, by both protecting and incentiv-
izing whistleblowers. The Whistleblowers Protection Act (which came into
232 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
force in May 2014), however, appears to fall short in this regard. In balancing
the rights of potential whistleblowers against the rights of officials to do
their jobs free of harassment, the current provisions seem to tilt the balance
towards officials. For example, there is no penalty for victimization of com-
plainants, the Central Vigilance Commission (charged with investigating
complaints) has no power to impose penalties, and—unlike the comparable
US law, for example—there is no provision for the whistleblower to be
compensated from any funds recovered as a result of the complaint (PRS
Legislative Research 2011).
A final intervention in this category is the introduction of independent,
third-party auditing. Duflo et al. (2013) implement a field experiment in
Gujarat in which they introduce the random assignment of auditing in two
heavily industrial regions of the state with the universe of “audit-eligible”
plants. The intervention has several components. First, the researchers
randomly assigned a third-party auditor to treatment plants who were paid
from a central pool rather than by the firm directly. Second, the researchers
verified a random sample of each auditor’s pollution readings with follow-up
visits. Finally, halfway through the study, treatment auditors were told that
their pay would be linked to the accuracy of their audit reporting.
The treatment resulted in more truthful reports by auditors for treated
firms. In terms of actual pollution outcomes, the treatment also succeeded
in reducing emissions with the “dirtiest” plants reducing emissions the most.
Finally, the authors demonstrate nonexperimental evidence that the financial
incentives for reporting accuracy, implemented mid-way through the study,
had an independent positive effect on reporting quality.
Hence, the introduction of independent “third-party” auditing resulted
in more accurate reporting, less “cheating,” and improved environmental
outcomes. The random assignment of independent auditors was clearly a
key component of the intervention, but equally important is the fact that
the auditor was paid from a central pool of funds rather than directly by the
audited firm. One could imagine a scenario in which the two are not de-
linked, which could potentially undermine the benefits of a third-party audit.
17. In order to counteract the court’s move, the UPA government quickly introduced a bill
in parliament that would nullify the ruling, but it was later forced to withdraw the bill under
harsh public criticism. The government also considered promulgating an ordinance to the
same effect, but again had to retreat in light of public outrage.
234 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
There are a few studies that have explicitly tested the proposition that
improving the awareness of voters through the provision of information
reduces support for criminality. Banerjee, Kumar, Pande, and Su (2011)
conducted an experiment with Delhi slum dwellers in advance of municipal
elections in which a local NGO distributed newspapers containing report
cards on politicians to randomly selected residents. The report card pre-
sented information on the performance of the incumbent legislator and the
qualifications of the incumbent and two main challengers. The report card
contained information on legislative activism, legislator performance, and
expenditures from the incumbent’s local constituency development fund.
In addition, the report card contained data, gleaned from candidate affida-
vits, on educational qualifications, criminal records, and financial assets.
Relative to control slums, the researchers find that treatment slums (which
received the report card) experienced higher voter turnout, reduced vote
buying (measured directly through participant observation), and increased
support for better performing and more qualified incumbents. Interestingly,
however, information on criminality seems to have no impact. The results
indicate that neither information on the criminality of incumbents nor on
that of challengers have any statistically significant impacts on incumbent
vote share.
A paper by Banerjee, Green, Green, and Pande (2010b) reports on a voter
mobilization, as opposed to information, campaign in Uttar Pradesh. In a
set of randomly selected villages, an NGO conducted meetings and puppet
shows to mobilize voters. In the first treatment, the NGO urged people in
the village to vote on Election Day but to do so responsibly by voting on
issues, not on caste. The second treatment involved an abstract plea, by
the same NGO, to vote for “clean politicians.” The treatment imparted the
message: “Corrupt politicians steal money set aside for development funds
and do nothing for you. Vote for clean politicians that care about your
development needs.”
The results of the first treatment indicate that it both has a positive impact
on raising voter turnout and also reduces the extent of caste-based voting
(as measured by a follow-on survey). The reduction in caste-based voting is
linked to a significant decline in support for candidates charged with heinous
crimes (although not those deemed to be “corrupt,” as measured by a survey
of local journalists). The authors conclude that low-information voters who
are urged not to vote on the basis of caste will consider alterative evaluative
criteria (such as past criminality). They surmise that support for criminal
candidates, then, is a by-product of caste-based voting.
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 237
linkage between identity politics and support for criminality; what remains
unresolved is whether this connection is incidental or represents something
deeper. In other words, do voters support candidates who are co-ethnics
and hence deemed more credible (in which case, criminality is incidental)
or is the credibility of co-ethnicity in some way conditioned by criminal-
ity? Clearly, more research is needed on the “demand” side before we can
disaggregate these nuanced relationships.
under Indian law). The latter bill makes giving bribes to, or receiving bribes
from, foreign public officials or international public officials a criminal act
(PRS Legislative Research 2014). This bill, if passed, would also ratify the
United Nations Convention Against Corruption, which India signed nearly
one decade ago in 2005. This highlights the role that external anchoring,
whereby membership in an international body incentivizes domestic reform,
can play in India’s fight against corruption (Morlino 2005).18
On the specifics of India’s bribery laws, the idea of criminalizing bribe-
giving, long part of the received wisdom, has recently been contested. In a
well-known paper, Basu (2011) argues that, insofar as “extractive corrup-
tion” is concerned (or harassment bribes ordinary citizens must pay in order
to receive what they are legally entitled to), the act of bribe giving should
be deemed “legitimate.” Basu argues that this will result in a sharp decline
in the incidence of bribe giving, and the reasoning is actually quite simple.
To quote the author: “[O]nce the law is altered in this manner, after the act
of bribery is committed, the interests of the bribe-giver and the bribe-taker
will be at divergence. The bribe-giver will be willing to cooperate in getting
the bribe-taker caught. Knowing that this will happen, the bribe-taker will
be deterred from taking a bribe.”
A paper by Abbink, Dasgupta, Gangadharan, and Jain (2014) experimen-
tally tested Basu’s theoretical proposal, using a lab experiment conducted
with university students in India. The authors find that when the bribe-giver
is provided legal immunity, reporting of bribe demands increases while the
demand for bribes declines (compared to a scenario in which both bribe-
giver and bribe-taker are held liable). This core finding is consistent with
Basu’s theoretical predictions. The authors, however, extend the analysis in
two important ways. They authors test how bribe-givers react when bribe-
takers can retaliate and when the bribe-giver’s payment is not refunded
(hence eliminating monetary incentives). Their findings suggest that strict
financial incentives do not overwhelmingly influence reporting behavior.
However, when retaliation is an option, bribe demands and reporting are
roughly on par with the baseline case (when both bribe-givers and takers
are legally liable). The authors thus conclude that asymmetric liability alone
18. Similarly, India’s decision to join the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-
national collective of nations dedicated to combating money laundering and terrorist finance,
helped to galvanize a series of reforms to modernize India’s financial and regulatory regime
in order curb the flow of illicit funds. These alterations, many of which were contained in The
Prevention of Money Laundering (Amendment) Bill, 2009, were stipulated as pre-conditions
to India’s joining the group as a full member in 2010.
240 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
may not reduce corruption. Legitimizing bribe giving must proceed hand in
hand with implementing procedures to limit retaliation.
In addition to legislation specifically designed to take action against
corruption, there are also legal changes that structure (or restructure) eco-
nomic interactions in ways that might minimize corruption. For instance,
in the lucrative domain of natural resources, the NDA government has
already taken steps to enact legal changes that will act to curtail collusive
corruption. During the decade of the 2000s, on account of skyrocketing
commodity prices, growing Chinese demand, and the booming domestic
economy, India’s natural resource sector was rife with rent-seeking. One
of the gravest abuses was the arbitrary and wholly discretionary power of
government authorities to allocate resources (such as spectrum, mining
licenses, and land) to hand-selected proprietors. The discretion inherent in
allocation rules paved the way for several of the biggest corruption scandals
of the 2000s. Although the government’s hand was forced by series of tough
Supreme Court judgements, in March 2015 the NDA successful obtained
parliamentary approval for two reform bills: the Coal Mines (Special
Provisions) Bill (2015) and the Mines and Minerals (Development and
Regulation) Amendment Bill (2015). Both bills compel the government to
allocate mining leases via auction.19 As scholars have argued and history has
confirmed, auctions can be an improvement but in and of themselves are no
panacea (Klemperer 2002). Indeed, in March 2015 media reports surfaced
suggesting the Government might cancel newly auctioned coal licenses on
suspicion that private firms may have colluded in the auction process to
artificially lower bid prices (Economic Times 2015).
19. The one exception relates to the 204 coal leases cancelled by the Supreme Court in
August 2014 on the heels of the ”Coalgate” scandal. The government can provide licenses
for these coalmines either through allotment or auction.
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 241
Such systems are common all around the world, and have been successfully
implemented in India through the implementation of “tatkal” (immediate)
schemes for obtaining train tickets, passports, phone services, etc. As one
former academic who is now a senior member of government noted tatkal
has basically eliminated bribes in obtaining railway tickets.
Another example of low-hanging fruit when it comes to policy reform
is the streamlining of permission to minimize the prevalence of harassment
bribes. In October 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the
creation of a new online portal that would allow more than 600,000 firms
doing business in India to essentially “self-certify” their compliance with 16
different labor laws currently in force (Yadav 2014). This is a measure many
leading business groups had been clamoring for, and a step some investor-
friendly states have already pursued (FICCI 2014). Under the status quo,
each of the 16 laws provided an opportunity for government inspectors to
harass firms and seek bribes in exchange for filing favorable compliance
reports. Under the new system, the feared “Inspector Raj” will not com-
pletely disappear, but instead be replaced by a system of random audits to
ensure that participating firms are truthfully reporting compliance. While
the new regime allows for some discretion on the part of the government,
it significantly constrains it.
A final area deserving of greater attention is the rule of law. Intellectually,
the rule of law is a slippery concept to pin down because there is, of course,
no single institution that is charged with protecting the “rule of law.” As
Kapur and Vaishnav (2014) have argued, it is more useful to conceive of
the rule of law as a set of linked activities in a supply chain. On one end,
there are the laws on the books and the lawmakers who write them. Further
along the chain come the courts, which are in charge of adjudicating the
laws. At the opposite end sit prosecutors and the police, who are the front-
line functionaries of the state in charge of enforcement. Weaknesses or
shortcomings in any single link have obvious repercussions for the entire
chain. For instance, what good are sterling laws on paper if the police do
not have the capacity to enforce them?
Without reforming the rule of law in India, it will be impossible to
deter corrupt acts before they take place or to take action once corrupt acts
eventually come to surface. Any strategy to reform the rule of law must
begin with reforming India’s legal undergirding. In the previous section,
we discussed several new laws that could have a salutary impact on the
corruption environment. But just as important as adding new laws on the
books is eliminating outmoded and outdated ones. The regulation of labor,
for instance, is a domain badly encumbered with onerous and excessive
242 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
laws that do more to provide venal government officers with tools to extort
businesses than to protect the rights of workers.
With regards to the remaining links in the chain, under-capacity is a major
constraint. As we discussed in Section 2, India’s rule of law institutions are
woefully undermanned in personnel terms. Even leaving aside the possi-
bility that contractors or private sector employees might be able to correct
for an under-provision of public sector workers (think, for instance, of the
booming labor market for private armed guards), the strength of most law
enforcement entities is well below where it should be. Even after boosting
alternative justice mechanisms or systems of grievance redressal, there are
limits to the progress that can be achieved short of hiring more judges. One
solution which has been recommended by the Law Commission of India is
to create an all-India judicial service, akin to the other all-India civil services
(like the IAS). This idea was first mooted in the 1960s, and was endorsed
as recently as 2012 by a Committee of Secretaries chaired by the Cabinet
Secretary, but has yet to see the light of day due to continuing differences
among the various state governments and high courts (Times of India 2015).
Even if political disagreements could be overcome, the crunch of finan-
cial resources poses a considerable obstacle to boosting the capacity of the
public sector. While resources are a major consideration, one should not
overestimate their role as the binding constraint. Recent experimental work
by Banerjee, Hanna, and Mullainathan (2012) on police reform in Rajasthan
demonstrates how relatively costless policy changes can greatly aid the
capacity of existing public sector agencies. Using a randomized design, the
researchers implemented a series of recommendations repeatedly suggested
by various police reform panels over the years, including limiting arbitrary
transfers, enforcing the rotation of duty days and days off, increasing com-
munity involvement and training, and deploying “decoy” visits. Due to the
autonomy of middle managers, many of the interventions were not effec-
tively implemented. However, the researchers did detect significant impacts
from the training and decoy interventions.
Of course, a final impediment to reform is political will. In many
instances, politicians prefer the status quo to pushing for reform because
it protects their ability to use (and abuse) their discretionary authority to
benefit themselves. Consider the consequences for the main parties involved
in recent high-profile corruption scandals. On the one hand, it appears as
though the state is fairly good at taking obvious action upon discovery of
the scam: canceling contracts or licenses, starting investigations, and even
arresting the main parties involved. True, many of these actions reflect the
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 243
will of the courts rather than incumbent politicians, but nonetheless some
action is taken.
When the dust settles, however, the news is quite depressing. Referring
back to our inventory of corruption scandals since the year 2000, the most
powerful actors—defined as serving or having served at the level of Chief
Minister of a state or above—who are implicated in alleged wrongdoing
are never actually found guilty (none out of the 12 cases in our sample).
Instead, the pattern is to arrest involved parties and file a CBI case as soon
as the scam breaks, but following up on this is practically impossible in the
cases of such big players, and each of them is out on bail.
On the other hand, those with limited political protection, particularly
those involved in financial scams defrauding other parties, are much more
likely to actually serve jail time, as the experience of Ketan Parekh, Abdul
Kareem Telgi, and even Harshad Mehta in the past suggest. The recent
conviction of two former chief ministers (Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar, Om
Prakash Chautala in Haryana) and one sitting chief minister (Jayalalithaa
in Tamil Nadu) presents a hopeful sign that the culture of impunity may be
coming to an end, but it is too early to declare a new trend.
It is precisely because of weaknesses of existing agencies tasked with
combating corruption that good government campaigners lobbied for
Parliament to create a Lokpal, or anticorruption ombudsman with enhanced
powers to go after malfeasance in government. The bill, which was passed
in December 2013—45 years after it was first discussed on the floor of
Parliament—also mandates that states establish state-level ombudsmen,
or Lokayuktas, to curb corruption at the subnational level. Even before
Parliament passed the bill, at least 18 states already had such agencies up
and running.
It is too soon to tell whether the Lokpal will be more effective than India’s
existing graft-fighting institutions because, at the time of writing, the agency
is still in the process of being established and the government is still framing
the rules that will guide the new agency. However, there are a number of
contentious issues, yet to be resolved, that will determine the new body’s
effectiveness (see also Kapur and Vaishnav 2014).
After nearly one year in office, the NDA government has not yet initi-
ated the process of appointing a chairperson and the various subordinate
members who will manage the new agency. In addition, there are numerous
procedural issues regarding the Lokpal’s investigative powers that have not
been finalized. For instance, there is no clarity regarding how the Lokpal
will receive complaints from those who are affected by, or who witness,
corrupt acts. If the new agency requires approval by state governments in
244 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
nuclear bill. Months after the SP bailed out the UPA government, the CBI
withdrew the case against Yadav, claiming it possessed insufficient material
to prosecute. Yet a little more than two years later, in the spring of 2011,
the SP and the Congress Party were at loggerheads over a potential seat-
sharing agreement in the coming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. Months
later, the CBI reversed its stand and reintroduced charges against Yadav. In
December 2012, the SP once again came to the aid of the Congress central
government by allowing a controversial bill involving foreign direct invest-
ment in multi-brand retail to sail through Parliament. By September 2013,
the CBI had once more closed its case against Yadav, citing “grossly insuf-
ficient evidence.” Clearly, using the state machinery to prosecute alleged
corrupt acts on the basis of political motivations has inherent shortcomings.
20. Kapur and Vaishnav cite an interview with a builder in New Delhi on December 3, 2012.
246 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
21. The authors are grateful to Alec Sugarman for his research on the American historical
case.
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 247
of its original bill in 2013, IAC’s leadership fractured, with Kejriwal lead-
ing the faction that would eventually morph into a new political party, the
AAP. After its initial 49 days running the Delhi government, in which it
aggressively pushed anticorruption legislation, AAP’s majority government
in Delhi (formed in December 2014 following fresh elections) has been less
insistent. Whether AAP can make headway on corruption remains to be seen,
as is its ability to scale up to other geographies outside of the immediate
National Capital Region. Outside of winning four seats in Punjab, the party
performed poorly in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. To date, it has not suc-
ceeded in creating a pan-Indian organization that could expand its footprint
outside of Delhi. Furthermore, judging by the high degree of internal party
conflict it is experiencing at the time of writing, there is some evidence that
the party is possibly sacrificing its fervent anticorruption modus operandi
for political expediency (Joshi 2015). There have been similar instances in
India’s post-Independence history of movements coming to the fore (the JP
movement in the 1970s or the example of V.P. Singh in the 1980s) motivated
by an underlying obsession with fighting corruption only to quickly dissi-
pate or be overtaken by other issues once they entered the political domain.
By and large, IAC, AAP, and other such groups are in line with the “good
government” strand of the Progressive Era reform movement. India has also
seen elements of the “social justice” movement discernible in many of the
rights-based movements of the 2000s around issues such as the right food,
water, employment, shelter, etc. Unfortunately, these movements were far
more effective in advocating for new legislation to enshrine these rights than
in the actual design of social programs that emerged out of this rights-based
agenda. Notably weak is the “business regulation” movement, which in the
USA helped push landmark legislation such as the Interstate Commerce
Act of 1887, the Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914, and the Clayton
Anti-Trust Act of 1914. But while this strand of the movement is weak, it
is not totally absent. Many of the corruption scams we have documented
in Table 1 (6 of 28, or 21 percent) are from the financial services sector,
typically involving private parties or entities conning other private parties.
Indeed, there are likely direct correlations between the creaky regulatory
structure, outmoded laws and gaps in consumer protection, and corruption
in the financial sector. Partially in reaction to this, the Government estab-
lished the Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC) to
revamp India’s archaic legal and regulatory framework governing India’s
financial sector. The effort, described by Patnaik and Shah (2014), serves
as a potential template for future reform initiatives.
248 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
Source: Author’s calculations based on affidavits submitted to Election Commission of India by candidates contesting the 2014 general election.
249
TABLE 4. Electoral Performance of Re-contesting Candidates with Declared Corruption Cases, 2014 Lok Sabha Elections
Change, Change, Change,
Candidate Constituency State Party Rank 2009 Rank 2014 # votes vote share elector share
Lalit Mohon Suklabaidya Karimganj Assam INC 1 3 –33155 –0.123 –0.049
250 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2011–12
words, referring back to the notion that criminals often are deemed more
“credible” representatives, it could be that voters are selecting so-called
tainted politicians precisely because they view them to be effective repre-
sentatives in the context of a weak state. However, to the extent criminal or
corrupt politicians gain strength by filling a governance vacuum, they face
incentives to purse temporary, rather than lasting, solutions. If criminal rep-
resentatives, for instance, serve a useful role resolving disputes or providing
security, they have every reason to undermine lasting governance solutions
that risk making their services irrelevant.
6. Conclusion
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Comments and Discussion
Devesh Kapur
University of Pennsylvania
which are state run institutions, have had severely pernicious consequences
for the medical and legal professions. This is also true of many NGOs which
are often seen as heroically battling against the depredations of the state.
Many indeed play that role but equally many non-profits are conduits for
money laundering.
The other part of the definition which also needs a deeper understanding
is the idea of “private gain.” What exactly is private gain? Is private gain
equivalent to pecuniary gain? So let us take a hypothetical country with a
hypothetical prime minister who is completely honest but decides to look the
other way when her or his ministers are engaged in patently corrupt activ-
ities in order to hold on to power. Is that an act of commission or an act of
omission? If we care about welfare should we worry more about someone
who takes 50 crores in illegal money or someone who has the power to stop
such activities and allow certain policies that cost 500 crores to the public
exchequer? If the ambition in public organizations to stay in power can
sometimes cause a lot more damage than someone taking cash, then it begs
the question of what exactly is “private gain” and what types of “private
gain” should we focus on?
Needless to say expanding the definition of corruption would mean an
entirely new paper. But it would be good to at least examine the implica-
tions of defining corruption in a very specific way for our understanding of
this complex issue.
The main thrust of the paper is addressing four big questions:
a modern state and variation on each of these domains across states and
between the center and states. There are four key domains of activity of the
modern state: the public goods and welfare state where leakages have been
galore and have been the subject of numerous studies ranging from PDS
to NREGS, etc…. The second is the regulatory state which has been the
source of “terrestrial rents (from the allocation of land), subterranean rents
(from the allocation of rights to coal mining and oil and gas exploration)
and ethereal rents (from the allocation of spectrum)”(Subramanian 2012).
The consequences have been both distributional (with the consumer pick-
ing up the costs) as well as efficiency costs, with severe adverse effects on
the supply capacity of the economy. The third domain of state activity is
the extractive state at the heart of which lies taxation. Although there is a
widespread belief that there is large-scale rent seeking in this domain, it is
not addressed in the paper.
The fourth (which is addressed in the paper), is the law and order state,
in particular the police and courts. The paper emphasizes how the weak-
ness in enforcement has hampered India’s ability to address corruption. If
addressing corruption requires competent investigative and prosecutorial
machinery, asking the very group that is amongst the most corrupt parts of
the Indian state—the police—to address corruption, is unlikely to bear fruit.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodies—who guards the guardians?—is a conundrum
intrinsic to all power, but in India the dilemma has been made more acute
by the virtual absence of serious reforms in the law and order institutions
of the state (especially the police) since independence. While the paper
draws attention to this reality, it raises a deeper question on why this issue
has remained unaddressed for so long. The politician–bureaucrat–police
nexus is the usual answer, but it raises the question why in such a highly
competitive democracy as India’s, police reform has not had much issue
salience among voters.
The paper draws attention to the distributional and efficiency costs of cor-
ruption. But it is noteworthy that when the major corruption scandals under
UPA-II came under scrutiny—by the media, the courts, and the Comptroller
and Auditor General—growth declined as policy paralysis in the govern-
ment brought decision making in the government to a halt. Indeed the costs
stemming from the ensuing decline in growth rates far exceeded the costs of
all the corruption scandals. Obviously this does not mean that the two were
directly causal or even if they were that corruption is a price worth paying
for higher growth rates given the likelihood of severe long-term institutional
costs. The paper points to the reality of a certain type of democratic account-
ability in the Indian system. When major corruption scandals erupt in the
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 265
public view, the decisions are often reversed. But the resulting slowdown
in decision making not only significantly raises costs (especially in capital
intensive projects) but has troubling non-pecuniary costs such as the effects
of the paralysis in defence procurement on India’s defence preparedness.
This points to an issue that needs better understanding in the Indian con-
text: the difference between “efficient” and “inefficient” corruption, often
seen as the difference between corruption in East Asia and Africa, or in the
Indian case between a Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. It is not that corruption
is less in Tamil Nadu but things actually get done there unlike Uttar Pradesh.
Corruption in public contracts in India when coupled with a rigid adherence
to L1 (lowest) bidding in procurement results in low-quality public infra-
structure. In East Asia corruption results in higher procurement costs while
maintaining quality and the resulting longer life-span of the product means
that long-term costs are much less. In recent years (as the paper mentions)
there are reports of politicians taking equity stakes in projects (instead of
upfront cash payments). This is a form of credible contracting that aligns
the incentives of the politician with that of the project promoter and ensures
better project outcomes compared to cash bribes. Given the strong resist-
ance of politicians to curbing corruption, even moving from “inefficient” to
“efficient” corruption is likely to bring substantial efficiency gains.
The paper relies heavily on a wide range of survey experiments to come to
broad conclusions. They are for the most part ambiguous not just for external
validity reasons but even their internal logic. It is not just that most of these
experiments are over very small samples. Even where they are impressively
large, the policy implications are ambiguous. Take the case of salary incen-
tives. Higher salaries in principle appear to have a positive selection effect
on who joins public service (on measures such cognitive skills, personality
traits, and motivation) ( Ernesto Dal Bó and Rossi 2013). Yet, what they do
after they join is a function of host of other institutional and organizational
factors. If public teachers in India who are already paid much more than
their private school counterparts are offered further financial incentives for
performance and their performance improves (as in the case of teachers in
AP), it is unclear if this is a new equilibrium or will it slide back as time
passes and researchers (and scrutiny) have moved on and whether other
parts of the public sector will demand similar deals without commensurate
long-term improvements in performance. In other cases experiments that try
and gauge the impact of information on say voter behavior simply cannot
distinguish between the information given by the surveyor and the actual
understanding of that information by the respondent.
266 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
Karthik Muralidharan
University of California, San Diego and NCAER
It is a pleasure to be here. I think that this is a very nice paper and as Devesh
said there is a very vast and disconnected body of evidence that it makes
a valiant attempt at bringing together, and it does a good job putting these
things in one place and I think some sections are particularly strong. For
example, I particularly like the discussion on the effectiveness of provid-
ing information, and the discussion of why this may not always be enough.
There is also this nice additional section that creates a list of major scams
and organizes by sector just to help better understand the areas that are most
vulnerable to corruption. But, I think it may work better in the beginning to
motivate the rest of your paper.
I think the paper has the potential to be a go-to reference for those want-
ing to get up to speed on the rapidly growing literature for both academic
and policy audiences but I think it needs a fair bit of work. The good news
is that most of this is organizational and conceptual and I am at least not
going to ask or expect you to go collect more primary data which is kind
of not realistic but I think based on what you have you can make the paper
a lot more punchy by doing some more organizational stuff. I am going to
have three classes of comments.
The first is on organization and framework. The second is on topics
covered and excluded and the third is on interpretation of some of the
results that I think right now reads a little bit too much like a laundry list:
268 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
putting them together in a framework that helps make sense in a more first
principles kind of way.
There is also one thing I didn’t mention here because Devesh did. So let
me just mention that this is important and is almost worth having a little
section on what I would call forensics. So the fact that corruption is really,
really hard to measure means that there is a class of papers that is important
just because they manage to measure convincingly the fact that corruption
takes place. Ray Fisman’s Indonesia Political Connections paper (Fisman
2001) is probably the best example of this, but even your sugarcane paper
(Sukhtankar 2012), and Devesh and Milan’s cement paper (Kapur and
Vaishnav 2015) are important papers even though they are not like super
well identified, just because they get at this very difficult task of measure-
ment. So I think calling this section “forensics” is a useful way to do this
because it is really about measurement and detective work as much as it is
about theories and causality.
But coming to the economics of this I think the one really important
paper that you are missing in terms of helping organize your thoughts is the
Bandiera et al. (2009) AER paper on active and passive waste in govern-
ment. The main insight of this paper is that while most of the attention goes
to big headline grabbing scams—they estimate that about 80 percent of the
waste in government is because of what they call “passive waste” which is
not the kind of corruption that is directly going into somebody’s pockets
but the waste that happens because of systemic inefficiencies, and of the
waste that happens because there is no residual claimant in government to
internalize the returns to improving effectiveness of governance and func-
tioning. Normally, I would say maybe this is too much and this might be
biting off more than you can chew (and that you should stick to corruption
defined as “active” waste above).
But because you have chosen to discuss both scams as well as the day-
to-day (or annual) losses, you almost certainly want this framework because
the policy implications are quite different. So, I think having that would be
useful.
There is also a second distinction that is similar but subtly different.
This is the difference between a corrupt state and a nonresponsive state,
and so it is related active and passive waste and they are correlated but you
can see why there is a different policy implication. For example, I think
when you think about the RTI/RTS, the problem that these acts are trying
to solve at some deep level is not necessarily corruption as much as just a
nonresponsive state. It is true they might be correlated because there might
be deliberate denial of service to create the bottlenecks to create the rents
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 269
in the first place. But the policy implications are different: For example,
once you put in place a “Right to Service” act and monitor progress with
electronic tracking of files, one of the things it helps identify is cases of
genuine staffing shortages in the system or cases that can be improved by
simple operations improvements.
So for instance, the former collector of Hyderabad would talk about a very
simple example about how students would want income and caste certificates
at the time of college applications, and they know that 10 months of the year
there is no demand and two months of the year there is this absolute peak
demand. So even if nobody is corrupt the service is going to be very slow
at the point of peak demand, which is the time when the typical beneficiary
interacts with the government for this service. So the nonresponsive state
might just be reflecting understaffing or mismatch of average and peak
demand/supply, which can be improved a lot with just simple operational
efficiencies. If you look at police, e.g., they are chronically understaffed and
under-resourced, and I will come back to the connections between corrup-
tion because there is this issue of deliberate under-investment in state capa-
city which I think is really important point. But I think your discussion of
RTS/RTI will really benefit from this distinction.
A final point, which is not made, is distinguishing between the class of
studies and recommendations that you would make to a motivated policy-
maker who says: “I want to reduce corruption” versus discussing the political
incentive constraints for reducing corruption in the first place. This impor-
tant because the binding constraint is often not whether policy X works but
whether policy X was allowed to be implemented in the first place. So we
understand this and your review again has elements of each of these. But if
you make the distinction clear and highlight the connections where relevant
I think it will make the whole thing much more coherent and I will come
back with concrete examples of this.
So choice of topics I think Devesh has talked about this. Some sections
really do not belong in this review. Section 2.4 we have talked about this. It
is like seven pages and it is really like calling democracy corruption, means
like it was thrown in there because there is evidence in that place but I don’t
think it belongs at all. The one place I think where it might belong is if the
motivation of that section is to use the existence of tainted politicians as a
reason for why anticorruption policies might never get implemented. I think
it was Chitra Subramaniam in the context of Bofors who once famously said
every politician loves corruption scandals only to the extent that it helps
show the other guy in a bad light but nobody is actually interested ever in
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 269
in the first place. But the policy implications are different: For example,
once you put in place a “Right to Service” act and monitor progress with
electronic tracking of files, one of the things it helps identify is cases of
genuine staffing shortages in the system or cases that can be improved by
simple operations improvements.
So for instance, the former collector of Hyderabad would talk about a very
simple example about how students would want income and caste certificates
at the time of college applications, and they know that 10 months of the year
there is no demand and two months of the year there is this absolute peak
demand. So even if nobody is corrupt the service is going to be very slow
at the point of peak demand, which is the time when the typical beneficiary
interacts with the government for this service. So the nonresponsive state
might just be reflecting understaffing or mismatch of average and peak
demand/supply, which can be improved a lot with just simple operational
efficiencies. If you look at police, e.g., they are chronically understaffed and
under-resourced, and I will come back to the connections between corrup-
tion because there is this issue of deliberate under-investment in state capa-
city which I think is really important point. But I think your discussion of
RTS/RTI will really benefit from this distinction.
A final point, which is not made, is distinguishing between the class of
studies and recommendations that you would make to a motivated policy-
maker who says: “I want to reduce corruption” versus discussing the political
incentive constraints for reducing corruption in the first place. This impor-
tant because the binding constraint is often not whether policy X works but
whether policy X was allowed to be implemented in the first place. So we
understand this and your review again has elements of each of these. But if
you make the distinction clear and highlight the connections where relevant
I think it will make the whole thing much more coherent and I will come
back with concrete examples of this.
So choice of topics I think Devesh has talked about this. Some sections
really do not belong in this review. Section 2.4 we have talked about this. It
is like seven pages and it is really like calling democracy corruption, means
like it was thrown in there because there is evidence in that place but I don’t
think it belongs at all. The one place I think where it might belong is if the
motivation of that section is to use the existence of tainted politicians as a
reason for why anticorruption policies might never get implemented. I think
it was Chitra Subramaniam in the context of Bofors who once famously said
every politician loves corruption scandals only to the extent that it helps
show the other guy in a bad light but nobody is actually interested ever in
270 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
doing anything about it and I think that is the one area where those two get
connected. But otherwise it is mostly a different literature.
The other important topic is not covered and to me the single biggest
omission is corruption in public sector recruitment and I think it is important
both at the highest levels, and at the entry level, and not just in terms of
recruitment scams which are not in your taxonomy. The recruitment scams
are not in your list and we now have several prominent examples includ-
ing the Madhya Pradesh scam, or fake certificates for teacher recruitment
in Bihar, there is the teacher recruitment scam in Haryana, where a former
Chief Minister (Om Prakash Chautala) actually got convicted, and not to
mention the recent resignation of the Railway minister on similar charges.
So we have evidence of these scams but actually theoretically this might
in fact be the most pernicious form of corruption, more so than individual
scams and that is because you can write a very simple overlapping genera-
tion model to show how once you get a bad egg into the system in a senior
place that this is going to perpetuate into eternity because the guy who has
bought his way into the job has to recovery money and so it is much worse
than an individual kind of corruption because you get negative selection
and so if you want to think about what is that causes institutions to decay
at some level, it fundamentally, in my view, comes down to corruption in
public sector recruitment.
So you get negative selection in terms of who comes in, and you change
the norms, because if you paid for your job, serving the public interest is
going to be lower on your priority list than recovering your “investment”
through corruption. Sometimes Hindi movies have a way of capturing
insight better than most academic seminars. How many people have seen
the movie Gangajal? There is a great scene, where you have got this corrupt
cop, holding up highway traffic and extorting money and then when this
honest SP catches him red handed and tries to take action he comes back
and cries “Saheb I have paid `3 lakh for this job.” I have taken a loan for
this job and I have no other option. It just kind of in a very visceral way
shows how the public sector recruitment, in my view at least, is probably
the foundation of almost all of these problems in linking corruption and poor
service delivery. I think there is a different set of issues at the top which is
the discretion that officers have at the top. So when people are willing to
pay to become DGPs and members of railway board, that is a different kind
of corruption than for jobs at entry level where I think the real problem is
just that the wages are too high. So we have got a wage compression in the
public sector where over 95 percent of public sector employees are paid
massive multiples of what the open market wages are but the very senior
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 271
public sector employees (in terms of skills) are massively underpaid relative
to their private sector opportunity cost and this leads to distortions at both
ends of the salary distribution.
Here is just one presentation to illustrate this. This is from my work on
contract teachers where the education establishment thinks that these con-
tract teachers (who are hired in the village —young women, less educated,
less trained, paid 1/6 of a civil service teacher is paid) are all being exploited
relative to government teachers. But if you then look at the private sector
wage, if anything the private salaries are even lower. So it is not like contract
teachers are being exploited but that there are massive rents in the civil ser-
vice job. In the past, I used to just think this was fiscal inefficiency because
what my work shows is that contract teachers are equally effective as regular
teachers paid many times more. If anything, they appear even more effective
because they do not have civil service tenure and they are connected to the
village. In the past, I just used to feel irritated that this is a fiscal waste but I
increasingly think it is worse than waste and that is because of this negative
selection problem. You can never really hide from the market. The market
will come back and bite you even though you don’t expect it. So when you
have this kind of wage premium what is going to show up is there is market
for getting these jobs and so that is what all these teacher recruitment scams
are about and people are willing to pay these huge premia but you just are
capitalizing upfront, a lifetime of rents that is above the market clearing
wage and so you cannot really hide from the market and that is why I think
this issue of wage compression is so important.
The second key topic which I have already alluded to is this: The great
value of adding a political scientist to a paper on corruption is the possibility
of a more nuanced understanding of the political conditions under which
anticorruption reforms actually can take pace and I will come back to that.
My last presentation: some connections and interpretations which I think
are really useful to make. The first connection is between technology and
incentives. I think it is important to make connection because I think technol-
ogy makes it easier to measure and implement incentives but you still need
the incentives. The most illustrative case of this is the empirical journey from
first draft to publication of the famous “Cameras paper” (Duflo, Hanna, and
Ryan 2011). So everybody thinks about this as the “Cameras paper,” that
you put cameras in school and teacher attendance went up. Actually that is
wrong. So if you look at the working paper version of this paper it had the
title Monitoring Works in 2005. By the time it got published in the year 2012
the title had changed to Incentives Work and the subtle difference is that
the intervention combined a camera and a wage schedule that was paying
272 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
you every day for valid days in which you showed up and so eventually
what happens is they can use certain structural features of the compensation
formula to isolate whether the impact is from the monitoring or from the
fact that you are actually paid for each day you show up and once they do
that the action shifts completely from the monitoring, to the incentives itself.
This is not to say that technology does not matter but the important point
the technology is doing from a contract theory perspective is it is making
the effort not just observable but verifiable. So the difference between an
individual inspector who goes to the school and finds the teacher is not there
but then has to prove that in a court of law (at which point it is his word
against the teacher’s word) is that the camera makes it verifiable to a third
party that the teacher was absent, which reduces the cost of taking the fol-
low up action. So technology is a really important facilitator for reducing
the cost of implementing incentives, sort of like George Baker’s work on
efficiency in the trucking industry. Once you are able to track the move-
ment of trucks that reduces the rents that truck drivers were getting from
long periods of slack because now you can track exactly where the truck is
going. So the technology is an enabler in terms of reducing the measurement
and monitoring cost but you need the incentives on top of that to improve
service delivery.
So the other important point that has come up in this discussion this
difference I think between NGO implementation versus government imple-
mentation of pilots. So we have now got multiple studies by Abhijit Banerjee
and co-authors, and a similar study in Kenya, and a common thread is that
when you have pilot projects implemented by researchers and non-profits
they seem to work. But then when you try to transfer this to government
implementation it kind of breaks down. I think it is a little more nuanced
than that because this is in contrast to kind of two sets of studies we have.
One is the example of our recent work with the Government of AP where
they randomized the deployment of biometric Smartcards to make NREGS
payments across 20 million people. This was implemented by the govern-
ment and we find big positive effects on reducing corruption. Second is our
recent work on teacher absence which we just released yesterday and we
are not touching any program. We are just looking at the impact of good
old monitoring by the government machinery (measured by whether your
school was visited in the past three months) and we find that that has a big
correlation with reduced teacher absence. So what I think is going is very
simple. The difference in each of these cases is that in the earlier cases, the
impetus for the change came from outside the government from researchers
and maybe one motivated IAS officer and then once that guy got transferred
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 273
General Discussion
Pranab Bardhan started by noting that the paper could be tighter on defini-
tions of corruption, even though they would inevitably overlap. The defini-
tion he himself used focusing on public corruption only was useful because
it allowed him to confine himself to just one kind of corruption. He then
referred to two other aspects he felt are important: the impact of competition
from private providers contracted to provide public services (e.g., passports)
on reducing corruption; and, second, wholesale versus retail corruption (e.g.,
some East Asian countries versus India) where the former is more “efficient”
and does not affect the decision at the margin, but of course leads to political
and institutional problems.
Dilip Mookherjee noted that the some societies deal with corruption by
institutionalizing it, e.g., US campaign finance laws that require disclosure
but legally allow contributions in an institutionalized form that many might
consider corruption. On looking for remedies, he asked if they were studies
in India that looked at the impact of a scam on the political career of the
politician involved even if they were not convicted. He also wondered
whether greater decentralization would be a solution, citing his own work
in West Bengal with Pranab Bardhan. He noted that reducing the political
discretion enjoyed by bureaucrats and politicians would be good for reduc-
ing corruption, citing the example of the USA. Finally, he noted that the
evidence is still out on whether community monitoring and provision of
information could curtail corruption.
Sanjeev Ahluwalia noted that while the paper had a lot of useful insights
on corruption he felt that many of them were too generic. He felt the paper
would gain from looking at measures that strengthen the social compact
between the state and citizens, e.g., broad basing taxes and increasing usage
charges. These sorts of measure would allow people to understand better
that corruption is simply the theft of their own money.
Amartya Lahiri said that corruption in India has possibly become so
endemic to society that it is simply accepted as a way of doing business.
Narrow, programmatic interventions working on a specific dimension of
corruption might therefore not work well since the problem may be so syste-
matic. Simple interventions would likely lead to multiple equilibria, with
spillovers from the public to the private sectors and vice versa.
Ashok Lahiri said that we could and should look at the Singapore model,
where bureaucrat salaries are high, but would raising salaries alone solve the
problem in India? What about recruitment and hiring and firing practices?
Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav 275
Nirvikar Singh questioned the notion that corruption was just a transfer
payment and redistributive and therefore may have no resource allocation
costs. He suggested that when there is a misallocation already then corrup-
tion can have serious resource allocation costs and in that situation it would
also have a long run impact on growth, though it is hard to estimate that
impact. He suggested that corruption also eroded trust and degraded social
norms, therefore substantially increasing its cost to society. This is not easy
to estimate but is nonetheless very important.
Mihir Desai seconded Karthik’s comment that the paper had the potential
of being a go-to reference, but, apart from policy recommendations, wanted
to see it end with many larger questions that researchers should address and
on which we don’t really know enough. He also cautioned against viewing
mismanagement as corruption, because otherwise almost everything would
be corrupt. For example, in his view, teacher abstenteeism was mismanage-
ment and not corruption. He disagreed with Devesh Kapur that measurement
of corruption was important in itself and we could stop there, and suggested
that measurement should be complemented by theory if we are to look for
solutions. Finally, while routine day-to-day corruption was more costly than
imagined, he urged the authors not to discount the costs of high-level cor-
ruption because of its systematic effects, which Nirvikar had also referred to.
Arvind Panagariya also emphasized the need for a unifying theme.
He suggesting looking at policy induced corruption that goes away when
policies are changed. He felt that technology offered solutions that could
reduce corruption dramatically, as for example in the case of railway ticket
booking when it was computerized. He suggested that one way of organ-
izing the paper might be to look at the difficulty of enforcement in India,
an important cause of corruption.
Anupam Khanna felt that this was the most informative and useful
discussion of corruption that he had heard in 20 years. He felt that a lot of
corruption in India was now at the government-to-business and the business-
to-business interfaces. On G2B, there is a real need to understand better how
corruption happens and then what to do about it. The popular perception of
the IT sector is that it is very clean, and in many ways it is, but there are pay-
offs there too, and while it is hard to clearly classify this as corruption, there
is something wrong with it, and it is important to understand what and why.
Rajnish Mehra (Chair) said that it would be useful to have a sense of the
magnitude of the seven categories of corruption noted in the paper: what is
first order, what is second order? On strategies to combat corruption, he felt
that it would be good to see how they are matched to corruption categories.
He felt that corruption distorted the investment-consumption tradeoff, which
276 I N D I A P O L I C Y F O R U M , 2014–15
then affects an economy’s growth rate, and that this impact was far more
important than suggested in the paper. So, one implication of this way of
thinking would be to see which of the seven categories in the paper are likely
to change growth rates and others that are more redistributive in their impact.
Karthik Muralidharan noted the massive wage compression in the pub-
lic sector: relative to the private sector, the top 2 percent of government
employees are massively underpaid and the vast majority of government
employees are paid a massive multiple. The Singapore model is about paying
higher salaries but with immediate exit if you are corrupt, so that it creates
an efficiency wage model. The reason why efficiency wage models do not
work in India is that one never gets fired. So, it is not just the level of pay
but the structure of pay that matters. He pointed to his work in Indonesia
where they doubled teacher pay across the board and there was absolutely
zero impact on learning outcomes, but when there was a tiny performance
pay, just 3 percent of their salary, now linked to performance, then they got
dramatic results.
References
Subramanian, Arvind. 2012. “What is India’s Real Growth Potential?” Business
Standard, May 23.
Ernesto Dal Bó, Frederico Finan, and Martín Rossi. 2013. “Strengthening State
Capabilities: The Role of Financial Incentives in the Call to Public Service,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(3): 1169–1218.
Indian Express. 2015. “Fake Ration Cards Pile Up in ‘Model’ PDS State,” Indian
Express, April 9. Available online at http://indianexpress.com/article/india/
politics/fake-ration-cards-pile-up-in-model-pds-state/ (accessed on April 30,
2015).