Budgeting for a greener future

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 202 (2024) 123321
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Technological Forecasting & Social Change

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/techfore
Budgeting for a greener future: Asymmetric nexus between nuclear energy

technology budgets and CO2 emissions
Anzhong Huang a, Meiwen Guo b, c, Luote Dai d, *, Aboubakar Mirza e, Sajid Ali e
a
School of Economics and Management, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212100, China
b
School of Management, Guangzhou Xinhua University, Dongguan 523133, China
c
Graduate School of Business, Universiti Sains Malaysia, George Town, Penang, Malaysia
d
School of Digital Economy and Trade, Wenzhou Polytechnic, Wenzhou City 325035, China
e
School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, 60000 Multan, Pakistan
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Optimizing nuclear energy technology budgets holds the key to fostering a cleaner environment for future
Nuclear energy R&D budgets generations. By allocating resources strategically, we can mitigate pollution, preserve ecosystems, and propel
CO2 emissions sustainable development, ushering in an era of unparalleled environmental quality and harmony. This research
Quantile-on-quantile estimation
probes the asymmetric influence of nuclear energy R&D budgets on CO2 emissions in top-10 economies con
taining the highest nuclear energy R&D budget (the USA, South Korea, Russia, China, France, Japan, Canada, the
UK, Germany, and India). Earlier studies used panel data methods for the interaction between nuclear energy
technology and CO2 emissions, even though some nations did not establish this linkage autonomously.
Conversely, this investigation employs a distinctive tool, ‘Quantile-on-Quantile,’ that permits the time-series
reliance in each nation by granting globally yet nation-specific views into the association between the vari
ables. At specific quantiles of the data distribution, the estimates manifest that nuclear energy budget allocations
reduce CO2 emissions in most economies analyzed. The results suggest prioritizing heightened investments in
nuclear energy R&D to accelerate the advancement of safer and more efficient nuclear technologies, conse
quently mitigating CO2 emissions.
1. Introduction them a low-carbon energy source. According to Caglar (2023), ad

vancements in nuclear technology have resulted in the creation of safer
In the face of global warming and climate change, governments and and more efficient nuclear power plants. These modern plants consume
organizations worldwide are actively exploring diverse approaches to less fuel and pose reduced risks of accidents. By minimizing the trans
mitigate carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) (Alam et al., 2021). A practical portation, mining, and storage of nuclear fuel, it is possible to decrease
solution in the pursuit of cleaner and more sustainable alternatives to greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, there is growing support for
traditional fossil fuels is nuclear energy (NE). The international NE implementing innovative nuclear reactor designs, such as small modular
market has experienced substantial expansion due to the rising need for reactors. These reactors can be conveniently installed in nuclear power
dependable, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly energy sources plants to generate dependable, low-carbon energy (Alola and Onifade,
(Fernández et al., 2018). Numerous nations are apportioning the Nu 2022; Erdoğan et al., 2022).
clear energy technology budget (NETB) to bolster NE advancements, While NE is frequently regarded as a greener and more sustainable
enhance safety and security measures, and diminish the environmental alternative to customary fossil fuels, concerns remain surrounding its
consequences associated with NE generation. In 2019, NETB constituted production and the potential environmental influence of NETB (Caglar,
approximately 17 % of the global energy research and development 2023; Appiah et al., 2023; Pata et al., 2023a). The primary hurdle lies in
(R&D) budgets (IEA, 2021; Lin and Ma, 2022). Investing in R&D for NE the secure disposal of radioactive waste generated during the production
can contribute to the reduction of CO2 through multiple avenues. Firstly, of NE. Although there are methods such as deep geological repositories
nuclear power plants generate electricity without emitting CO2, making for safe storage, concerns persist regarding potential leaks and the long-
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: luote26@wzpt.edu.cn (L. Dai).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123321
Received 23 July 2023; Received in revised form 25 February 2024; Accepted 29 February 2024
Available online 12 March 2024
0040-1625/© 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A. Huang et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 202 (2024) 123321
term impacts on the environment and public health. Furthermore, ura usefulness of various R&D strategies and pinpoint areas for enhance
nium mining carries the potential for environmental harm and water ment. Moreover, history has demonstrated that technological advance
contamination, posing risks to various habitats (Wisnubroto et al., ments in one economy can swiftly disseminate to neighboring
2021). Moreover, constructing nuclear power plants and associated economies. Moreover, the energy sector of a nation is interconnected
infrastructure generates CO2, which is typically counterbalanced by the with the energy sectors of neighboring countries and is susceptible to
low-carbon electricity produced during operation. Lastly, the compar internal and external shocks (Simionescu and Schneider, 2022).
atively high cost of NE relative to other energy sources may deter certain Fourthly, to address concerns related to slope heterogeneity and cross-
nations and organizations from adopting it (Bandyopadhyay et al., sectional reliance, the QQ (Quantile-on-Quantile) technique is applied.
2022). Nevertheless, NE continues to be a viable alternative for reducing This technique offers a time series approach that analyzes every nation
CO2. In order to tackle these challenges and ensure the sustainability of separately. Failing to account for these factors properly can significantly
NE, ongoing investment in R&D is crucial. skew findings and introduce biases into the analysis (Chang et al., 2022).
Evaluating the NETB-CO2 relationship covers several issues. Does More considerable asymmetry in the NETB-CO2 link results from
NETB lead to CO2 reduction? Is there an asymmetric NETB-CO2 industrialization, economic growth, and quick changes in energy policy
connection? What are the results when datasets span across different (Yu et al., 2022). Consequently, the initial phase of this study will focus
nations? What are the probable implications of NETB-induced fluctua on analyzing each nation individually to tackle the concerns above.
tions in CO2? Despite available literature, these questions need to be Additionally, because of their geographical contiguity, these economies
solved, with limited empirical studies delving into these issues. Lately, are generally autonomous, as each one exhibits varying levels of effi
numerous research has been performed to investigate the NETB-CO2 ciency in utilizing NETB to enhance EQ (Fernández et al., 2018). Hence,
relationship (for instance, Balsalobre et al., 2015; Ahmed et al., 2022a; applying an econometric method such as QQ to construct empirical
Usman, 2022; Caglar, 2023; Fernández et al., 2018). To the best of models is vital to account for cross-sectional heterogeneity. The findings
available knowledge, no prior investigation has examined the asym obtained from this analysis would provide an all-inclusive perception of
metric NETB-CO2 relationship, specifically within the top 10 countries the linkage between the variables in question, which would not be
with significant nuclear R&D efforts. Former research has primarily achievable through conventional econometric methods alone. Lastly,
utilized panel data methods to probe the NETB-CO2 relationship without the conclusions drawn from this study would pave the path for later
considering the lack of evidence for such a connection across a diverse investigations on the NETB-CO2 association and its implications for
range of other nations. The present study employs the QQ instrument to other nations.
provide an all-inclusive analysis of the NETB-CO2 linkage. This approach The subsequent sections of the work are ordered in the following
offers global and country-specific insights by individually examining the way: An overview of earlier empirical studies is explained in Section 2.
time-series dependence for each nation using the QQ method. The study Section 3 of this work presents the data and the econometric technique.
of the relationship between nuclear NETB and CO2 presents challenges Section 4 contains the work’s preliminary and central findings alongside
due to specific characteristics that conventional econometric methods an in-depth discussion. A summary of the findings and proposals for
like OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) and standard quantile regression are prospect steps are mentioned in Section 5.
not well-suited to address. These traditional parametric approaches
frequently overlook slope heterogeneity and are susceptible to de 2. Literature review
viations (Chang et al., 2022). Therefore, to probe the influence of NETB
on CO2, it is essential to employ an appropriate econometric technique, The function of government expenditures on R&D of energy is
such as the QQ method. This approach can handle heterogeneous slopes necessary for shifting towards a low-carbon economy. In addition, clean
and exhibits robustness against outliers (Sharif et al., 2020). Former energy R&D budgets increase the replacement of fossil fuel resources
research has examined separate parameters (neutral, positive, or in with clean energy, confirming energy security and contributing to the
verse) based on the complete data distribution. Contrarily, the current EQ (Ahmed et al., 2021). The previous works usually concentrated on
research insinuates that several signs (either inverse or positive) might total energy technology budgets (ETB) on the environmental status by
be obtained across a broad array of quantiles. This implies that the effect ignoring the disaggregate allocation of these development budgets for
of NETB may fluctuate depending on the economic situation, potentially different renewable energy sources. For example, Pata et al. (2023b)
yielding different effects during a recession compared to an expansion. analyzed the impact of renewable energy R&D and NE R&D expendi
Likewise, the impact of NETB over EQ may differ depending on the tures on EQ, focusing on Germany’s carbon neutrality target for 2045
magnitude of NETB. As the level of NETB rises, the NETB-CO2 associa and found that only renewable energy R&D expenditures were effective
tion may become complicated and dynamic. An asymmetric relationship in reducing CO2. Buongiorno et al. (2018) highlighted nuclear energy’s
between NETB and CO2 is anticipated due to scattered characteristics crucial role in achieving global decarbonization targets, emphasizing its
leading to asymmetric economic variable fluctuations (Chang et al., dispatchable nature for cost-effective energy transitions in the MIT
2022). By focusing on individual nations, the approach can provide study. Despite initial costs, strategies to reduce costs and implement
valuable country-specific insights to governments and decision-makers. equitable government policies were essential. Similarly, Shahbaz et al.
This can aid in achieving social, political, and economic objectives (2018) found that ETB upgraded environmental conditions in France
across the low, middle, and high NETB-CO2 quantiles. The NETB-EQ through the bootstrap ARDL tool for 1956–2017. Fernández et al. (2018)
relationship varies from country to country so that the study can offer analyzed the ETB-CO2 nexus for the USA, China, and EU-15 from 1991 to
crucial guidance tailored to specific national contexts. 2015. The findings showed that ETB increased EQ for EU-15 and USA.
The present study concentrates on the top 10 nations with the highest Conversely, ETB decreased EQ in China due to accelerated economic
NETB for several reasons. Firstly, these economies are expected to be growth and the employment of fossil fuels. Álvarez-Herránz et al. (2017)
substantial contributors to global CO2. Secondly, their excessive probed the impact of ETB on EQ in OECD economies for the phase of
dependence on conventional energy sources increases the likelihood of 1990–2014 and revealed that ETB reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
adverse impacts on EQ (Balsalobre et al., 2015; Caglar, 2023). Hence, Similarly, Balsalobre et al. (2015) examined the link between ETB and
conducting a comprehensive analysis of the influence of NETB on these greenhouse gas emissions from 1994 to 2010 for 28 OECD economies.
economies can yield significant contributions to global endeavors aimed Findings of the fixed effect model revealed that ETB reduced energy
at reducing CO2 and improving EQ. Additionally, these economies have intensity and greenhouse gas emissions. Disintegrating the overall en
invested substantially in nuclear energy R&D, establishing themselves as ergy R&D expenditures into different energy resources, including NE, is
key participants in advancing new nuclear technologies. Examining the essential. Consequently, the influence of these energy resources on EQ
impact of their NETB allows us to obtain valuable insights into the could be seen during the transitory phase to a low-carbon economy and
2
sustainable growth. Ali et al. (2023) examined the relationship between generalization problems, and improper choice of the model. Because of
industrialization, FDI, technological innovation, energy use, urbaniza the heterogeneity of slopes in panel data, it is not easy to estimate the
tion, and carbon emission intensity in KSA. The study found that ur average influence of NETB-induced carbon emissions for every econ
banization and energy use positively impacted carbon emission omy. So, the QQ method, which comprehensively appraises every nation
intensity, while technological innovation was negatively associated with individually, is endorsed.
carbon emission intensity. Roth and Jaramillo (2017) observed that the
US nuclear plants would have needed $8–$44 per MWh to break even, 3. Data and methodology
and if natural gas had replaced them, the cost of avoided CO2 would
have been $18–30 per metric ton. This work examines the NETB-CO2 nexus for the top 10 countries
Most economists have studied how investments in renewable energy with the topmost nuclear energy R&D budgets. The study encompasses
R&D affect the environment, while only a few have examined the in two variables. NETB is an independent variable measured as the nuclear
fluence of R&D in NE. Ahmed et al. (2021) probed the influence of RETB energy R&D budgets. CO2 is used as a dependent variable. In this study,
on EQ in the USA for the 1986–2018 period. The results of the asym selecting NETB and CO2 as the primary variables is pivotal for investi
metric ARDL approach indicated that RETB had no significant influence gating the nexus between NE R&D efforts and environmental outcomes
over CO2. Ahmed et al. (2022a) assessed the influence of NETB and in the leading nuclear innovating countries. The choice of NETB as the
RETB on EQ in Japan. The results of the asymmetric ARDL approach independent variable is critical because it quantifies the financial
found that clean energy resources and R&D budgets improved EQ. commitment of nations to NE research, reflecting their priorities and
Moreover, the positive developments in the RETB and NETB decreased potential for innovation in this sector (Majeed et al., 2022). This in
and increased EQ, respectively. Ahmed et al. (2022b) observed the vestment is critical in advancing nuclear technologies, which can
linkage between RETB and ecological footprint in G7 economies from significantly impact sustainable energy development and environmental
1985 to 2018. Econometric findings indicated that RETB reduced the conservation.
ecological footprint. Alola and Onifade (2022) found that implementing On the other hand, CO2, our dependent variable, is a primary indi
environmental technologies during the advancement of coal energy cator of environmental impact, particularly concerning climate change
resulted in substantial environmental expenses. Conversely, introducing (AlFarra and Abu-Hijleh, 2012; Depren et al., 2023). By examining the
new methods for NE, natural gas, and oil production exhibited statisti relationship between NETB and CO2, this research aims to uncover in
cally significant environmental advantages. sights into how advancements in NE technology can contribute to
Usman (2022) utilized the STIRPAT model to probe the collaboration reducing carbon footprints and achieving sustainability goals. The data
influence of renewable and green energy technology expenditures on of NETB is acquired from the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2021).
carbon emission quantiles in G7 economies for 1991–2018. Applying the The CO2 data comes from World Development Indicators. The data
Method of Moments-Quantile Regression revealed that renewable en spans from the years 1991 to 2022. In the inception of the present
ergy and green energy technology expenditures had heterogeneous and research, Table 1 specifies the terminologies for the symbols and ab
inverse influences over CO2. In another study, Caglar (2023) examined breviations employed in this exploration.
the connection between NETB and carbon emissions from 1974 to 2020
for the UK by adopting a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag tool.
3.1. Econometric method
An asymmetric relationship between NETB and CO2 was found, where
positive changes in the NETB reduced environmental degradation, but
The econometric tool adopted in the existing investigation is
negative changes hindered environmental sustainability. Additionally,
analyzed in the current section. A quantile-based cointegration test in
the environmental Kuznets curve was also confirmed. Ulussever et al.
vestigates the variables’ long-run association. This study exerts the QQ
(2023) studied how factors like income, energy use, energy prices, crude
tool for econometric analysis.
oil prices, and political risks affect environmental degradation in five
GCC countries. It was found that higher income, energy consumption,
and energy prices tend to harm the environment, whereas political and 3.2. Quantile cointegration (QC) test
geopolitical risks had varied impacts. Irandoust (2016) revealed unidi
rectional causality between renewable energy consumption, techno The employment of fixed cointegrating vectors in traditional coin
logical innovation, economic growth, and CO2 in Denmark, Finland, tegration tests might elucidate the reason for the occasional failure to
Sweden, and Norway. uncover long-run relationships between variables (Yu et al., 2022). Xiao
The studies comprehensively examine the relationship between ETB, (2009) suggests that the cointegration among variables might differ
RETB, and NETB on EQ and carbon emissions across various economies.
They reveal a nuanced picture, suggesting that while ETB generally Table 1
improves EQ and reduces greenhouse gas emissions, the impact of RETB The taxonomy of acronyms and symbols.
and NETB varies depending on factors such as the country, time period, Acronyms/symbols Narration
and specific technologies involved. The findings highlight the
QC Quantile cointegration
complexity of transitioning to a low-carbon economy and underscore the NE Nuclear energy
importance of targeted policy interventions for sustainable environ RETB Renewable energy technology budget
mental outcomes. The literature reviewed above primarily examines the QQ Quantile-on-Quantile estimation
influence of RETB on EQ, with few studies focusing on NETB. As an NETB Nuclear energy technology budgets
EQ Environmental quality
advanced energy resource, NE is crucial for transitioning to a lower- QR Quantile regression
carbon economy and for renewable energy sources to become more ETB Total energy technology budget
mature. According to the evaluations of the available literature, most Ordinary Least Squares OLS
studies concerted on the whole influence of NETB on CO2 and rarely CO2 Carbon dioxide emissions
μθt Quantile error term
studied the connection between distinct quantiles of these variables. The
τ τth quantile of CO2 emissions
earlier studies indicate a symmetric link between the variables. Refrain R&D Research and development
from considering the asymmetric effects to avoid data loss and erro Supτ |Vn(τ)| Value of supremum norm for the coefficients (α and γ)
neous findings. Moreover, former studies have consistently proved a ρϕ quantile loss function
predilection for panel data rather than time-series data. Panel data de h Bandwidth parameter
ADF Augmented Dickey-Fuller
picts multiple challenges, containing quantification abuses,
3
across multiple quantiles of the variables. In order to minimize estima The quantile error component is denoted by μt θ along the θth quantile.
tion bias in studying the long-term relationship between conditional Eq. (4) is appraised within the locality of NETB utilizing the intuition
distributed data, the quantile cointegration (QC) methodology origi of Cleveland (1979) for localized linear models as follows:
nated by Xiao (2009) is applied. This technique considers time-based
(5)
′
variations and links between multiple independent and dependent var αθ (NETBt ) ≈ αθ (NETBτ ) + αθ (NETBτ )(NETBt − NETBτ )
iables’ quantiles. In order to minimize estimation bias, the QC meth α is a partial impact (partial derivative) of α (NETBt) concerning
θ′ θ
odology introduced by Xiao (2009) is utilized. This test considers both NETBt. αθ(NETBτ) is designated by θ, whereas αθ′(NETBτ) is represented
the time-varying nature and the connection amidst discrete quantiles of by τ. αθ(NETBτ) is denoted by α0(θ,τ), whereas αθ′(NETBτ) is revealed by
the independent and dependent variables when analyzing long-term α1(θ,τ). As a result, the revised form of Eq. (5) could be written as:
relationships with conditional distributed data. As endogeneity limits
constrain conventional cointegration tests, Xiao (2009) modified the αθ (NETBt ) ≈ α0 (θ, τ) + α1 (θ, τ)(NETBt − NETBτ ) (6)
approach by incorporating the cointegration error term into the lead-lag
Substituting Eq. (6) in Eq. (4) results in the QQ regression suggested
factors. The constant vector is designated by α (τ). Now, the QC equation
by Sim and Zhou (2015), which is as follows:
may be expressed as below:
α0 (θ, τ) + α1 (θ, τ) (NETBt − NETBτ )
∑
k CO2t = + uθt (7)
Xi = α + α′Yi + ΔYi−′ k Π k + vi (1) (*)
Eq. (7) presents the QQ model’s functional structure, which specifies
k=− s
and the effect of the θth NETB quantile on the τth quantile of CO2. The
component (*) denotes the conditional NETB quantiles. α1 and α0 (pa
∑ rameters) are dual indexed in τ and θ and demonstrate the NETB-CO2
s
( )
QXτ Xi Ni X , Ni y = β(τ) + α(τ)′Yi + ΔYi−′ k Π j + Fv− 1 (τ) (2)
k=− s quantile association. Hence, Eq. (7) indicates the underlying trend of
dependency between NETB and carbon emissions.
β(τ) is a drift term containing a fixed parameter. The quantile re Though QQ is a bivariate method with only one independent variable
siduals for conditional data distribution are represented by Fv− 1 (τ). (NETB), it performs better than alternative customary time-series tools
Hence, referring to Xiao (2009), the quadratic element of the cointe (Chang et al., 2022). It can anticipate the nonlinear NETB-CO2 inter
gration model could be uttered as below: connection at upper and lower quantiles, creating extra trustworthy and
( ) ∑
s exact estimates relative to frequently used tools (Xu et al., 2021). In the
QXτ Xi Ni X , Ni y = β(τ) + α(τ)′Yi + δ(τ)′Yi 2 + ΔYi−′ k Π k minimization problem, bandwidth is vital because it assists in indicating
k=− s
(3) the association among the quantiles of NETB and CO2. A minimization
∑
s
+ ΔY 2 − 1
i− k Π k + Fv ( τ) function is employed as follows:
k=− s
∑n [ ]
Mn (NETBt ) − τ
The QC test cointegration coefficients are estimated with H0: α (π) = Minδ0 δ1 ρ
t=1 ϕ
[CO2t − δ0 − δ1 (NETB t − NETB τ
) ]L (8)
h
α as the null hypothesis (assessed through Eq. (3)). In the present
ρϕ represents the QR loss function. L(.) shows the Gaussian function
investigation, V
̂ n (τ) = [̂
α (τ) − ̂α ] the supremum rule (null hypothesis).
utilized as a weighted parameter to measure competence by providing
This work uses Supτ ∣V′n (τ)∣ as a statistical value for quantile distributions.
several weights to data surrounding NETB. The ratio of the NETB
By implementing 1000 Monte Carlo simulations, the statistical critical empirical distributional function to the NETB quantile distributional
values are determined. function is used to calculate the weighting parameters of the Guassian
kernal. ‘h’ shows the bandwidth parameter, whereas the notation ‘I’
displays the standard indicator function. In kernel regression, band
3.3. Quantile-on-quantile (QQ) method
width is a grinding element that reduces variance and bias. According to
Sim and Zhou (2015), estimates with a narrow bandwidth exhibit more
The QQ tool is adopted for the econometric analysis. Because the
considerable variance, while those with a wide bandwidth contain a
data is asymmetrically distributed, the QQ method is an excellent source
partial distribution. Consequently, finding stability between variance
for creating an association between the variables. While the standard QR
and bias is vital. Therefore, a bandwidth value of 0.05 has been adopted
tool concentrates merely on examining the conditional average effect of
for the current work, following Sharif et al. (2021).
the independent on the dependent variable quantiles, Sim and Zhou
(2015) initiated the QQ methodology to overcome the limitations of the
QR methodology. The QQ technique was submitted by Sim and Zhou 3.4. Robustness of the QQ tool
(2015) to abolish the limitations of the QR technique. The QQ is a
beneficial approach for probing numerous phases connecting indepen The QQ model has the potential to provide standard QR estimates by
dent variable and dependent variable’ quantiles (Sim and Zhou, 2015). producing dependable estimated values for diverse NETB quantiles. As
In this tool, non-parametrical estimates are blended with the conven the quantile-based parameters of the QR regression are solely identified
tional QR technique. It explores the effect of NETB quantiles on CO2 by θ, the regression may forecast the effect of NETB’s θth quantile on
quantiles to resolve the interdependence obstacle. Therefore, the QQ CO2. The QQ regression, contrarily to the QR instrument, gauges the
technique can help the present study to determine issues in the NETB- influence of the θth NETB quantile on the τth quantile of CO2 and em
CO2 linkage that can be complicated to detect when adopting traditional bodies the quantile coefficients by both θ and τ, leading to much-
techniques like OLS and QR. organized data.
Now, the non-parametric regression is adopted for the initial model, Therefore, the QR regression parameters are derived by averaging
endorsed by Ahmed et al. (2022a) and Caglar (2023), as follows: the QQ parameters throughout τ. Following Sim and Zhou (2015), the
slope coefficients of the QR regression, denoted byγ1 (θ), are adopted to
CO2t = αθ (NETBt ) + μt θ (4)
observe the influence of NETB on several CO2 quantiles, as proved
At time t, NETB and CO2 represent the nuclear energy technology below:
budget and CO2 emissions. θ depicts the θth NETB quantile conditional 1∑
distribution. As knowledge about the bond between NETB and CO2 is α1 =
γ 1 (θ) ≡ ̂ α 1 (θ, τ)
̂ (9)
s τ
lacking, it’s sensible to presume that the factor load αθ(.) is unidentified.
4
Here, s expresses the number of quantiles, which is 19. τ = [0.05, most variables achieve stationarity after first-order differencing.
0.10, …, 0.95] discovers the quantile’s range. By comparing the esti Exceptionally, in of Japan and France, the CO2 exhibits stationarity in its
mated QR coefficients to the τ-averaged QQ values, the robustness of the level. Consistent with the methodologies suggested by Sharif et al.
QQ method can be tested. (2020), the data series was converted into first differences to guarantee
stationarity.
4. Results and discussion This research employs the BDS test, developed by Brock and De Lima
(1996), to detect potential non-linear or asymmetric dynamics within
This section comprises the preliminary and major outcomes and an the dataset. This test aims to reveal signs of either independence or
exhaustive discussion. linear correlation among the time series data. It starts with the null
hypothesis that assumes linear correlation among the dataset, with the
alternative hypothesis indicating the absence of such correlation. The
4.1. Preliminary results rejection of the null hypothesis in this analysis highlights the asym
metric attributes present in the data. Consequently, as signified in
The descriptive statistics values for CO2 and NETB are presented in Table 4, the outcomes of the BDS test validate the presence of asym
Table 2. The significant increase in NETB observed in the selected na metric or non-linear NETB-CO2 connections across the economies under
tions points out a fundamental shift in the energy mix towards clean study.
energy. Table 5 shows the correlation coefficients between NETB and CO2 for
With an average NETB of 1454 million US$, ranging from 1162 to the selected economies. Correlation examination shows that NETB and
1864 US$, Germany has the highest NETB among selected economies. CO2 are significantly and inversely associated with each other. China has
France comes second, with an average NETB value of 1149 million US$, the highest correlation coefficient (− 0.85), tracked by Germany
vacillating from 983 to 1341 million US$. China is third, trailed by the (− 0.84), Russia (− 0.82), and Japan (− 0.77).
USA and Japan. If considering carbon emissions, China emerges as the
top polluted economy concerning CO2, with a mean value of 6,156,876
kt, fluctuating from 2,302,180 to 10,707,220 kt. The USA comes second, 4.2. Core outcomes
possessing an average CO2 of 5,292,185 kt, fluctuating from 4,807,500
to 5,775,810 kt. Russia is third, followed by India, Japan, and Germany. Table 6 depicts the outcomes of the QC test. The τth CO2 quantile is
The findings of the J-B (Jarque-Bera) test indicate that, except for China, given by τ. The parameters’ consistency is indicated by supremum norm
the data of NETB and CO2 in the selected countries are not normally coefficients (α and γ) derived through Eq. (3).
distributed. This non-normality in the data distributions further sup The outcomes from the QC test expose that the long-run NETB-CO2
ports the justification for employing the QQ method, specifically association modifies across quantiles in each economy. The findings
designed to address such situations (Sharif et al., 2020). In most econ indicate that the supremum norm scores of the coefficients excel their
omies, the ADF test indicates that the variables exhibit stationarity when related critical limits (C1, C5, and C10), pointing to a long-run asym
considering their first differences. Therefore, tracking the approach of metric association between NETB and CO2 in the sample economies.
Sharif et al. (2020), the data series is transformed into their first dif Fig. 1 describes the slope estimations α1 (θ, τ ) that exhibit the in
ferences to ensure stationarity. fluence of the θth NETB quantile on the τ th CO2 quantile in nations
Table 3 presents the outcomes of the unit root test performed using picked by us utilizing multiple values of θ and τ . In France and Ger
the approach outlined by Kim and Perron (2009), which contemplates many, a negative powerful effect of NETB on CO2 is leading. A powerful
structural breaks within the dataset. negative NETB-CO2 nexus is discovered across the points, which join
Findings from Kim and Perron (2009) emphasize the presence of complete NETB quantiles associating moderate-low to moderately
structural breaks in the dataset. Additionally, the analysis suggests that higher pollution quantiles (0.35–0.95). The explicitly inverse powerful
Table 2
Descriptive statistics values for CO2 and NETB.
Economies Mean Max. Min. Std. dev. J-B stats ADF Level ADFΔ
Panel A: NETB (million US$)

France 1149 1341 983 104.20 2.89* − 1.49 − 4.62*
Germany 1454 1864 1162 222.67 2.90* − 0.93 − 6.77*
Russia 398.21 816 209 213.76 3.12* − 1.45 − 4.30*
USA 695 802 559 70.50 4.20* − 1.51 − 5.64*
UK 52.94 95 38 15.32 7.65* − 1.35 − 5.82*
Japan 581.90 899 428 129.19 3.80* − 1.71 − 5.80*
China 971 1547 318 443.13 3.80* − 1.67 − 5.03*
Canada 40.85 52 35 4.78 2.74* − 1.69 − 4.80**
South Korea 349.46 447 177 84.46 3.83* − 1.96 − 5.80*
India 88.83 143 38 29.08 4.40* − 2.15* − 4.55**
Panel B: CO2 (kiloton)

France 351,276 381,110 300,520 25,814.56 2.88* − 1.70 − 5.64*
Germany 807,300 932,550 657,400 66,936.64 4.80* − 4.32* − 6.75*
Russia 1,650,522 2,136,440 1,487,970 142,114 29.86* − 1.70 − 4.46*
USA 5,292,185 5,775,810 4,807,500 344,993 3.70* − 1.56 − 5.71*
UK 491,808 570,680 348,920 66,755 4.69* − 5.72* − 5.23*
Japan 1,173,933 1,262,789 1,081,570 46,001 4.70* − 1.86 − 4.14*
China 6,156,876 10,707,220 2,302,180 3,081,224 1.49 − 1.88 − 3.73**
Canada 517,827 580,210 413,300 50,740 3.38* − 1.09 − 5.71*
South Korea 488,261 630,640 274,790 105,665 3.16* − 1.68 − 5.72*
India 1,355,833 2,456,300 607,230 614,156 3.60* − 1.85 − 5.15*
*
The level of significance at 1 %.
**
5
Table 3
Unit root test for structural breaks.
Countries Variables Level First difference
t-Stat Break Decision t-Stat Break Decision
France NETB − 2.98 2009 Not stationary − 9.18* 2008 Stationary

CO2 − 4.10** 2010 Stationary – – –
Germany NETB − 2.33 2007 Not stationary − 8.14* 2006 Stationary
CO2 − 1.99 2010 Not stationary − 5.44* 2012 Stationary
Russia NETB − 2.07 2018 Not stationary − 10.02* 2018 Stationary
USA NETB 0.18 2003 Not stationary − 9.68* 2003 Stationary
UK NETB − 2.84 2008 Not stationary − 10.32* 2007 Stationary
Japan NETB − 2.22 2014 Not stationary − 7.16* 2013 Stationary
CO2 − 4.99* 2019 Stationary – – –
China NETB − 2.60 2021 Not stationary − 9.53* 2020 Stationary
Canada NETB − 1.45 2008 Not stationary − 7.58* 2008 Stationary
South Korea NETB 0.18 2013 Not stationary − 9.69* 2013 Stationary
India NETB 0.22 2021 Not stationary − 9.69* 2020 Stationary
*
**
Table 4 Table 5
BDS test of nonlinearity. Correlation between CO2 and NETB.
Countries Dimension NETB CO2 Nations Correlation t-Stats p.value
BDS stats. p.value BDS stats. p.value France − 0.70 − 7.62* 0.000
Germany − 0.84 − 10.60* 0.000
France 2 3.95 0.00 2.97 0.00
Russia − 0.82 − 4.90* 0.000
3 2.17 0.00 2.35 0.00
USA − 0.75 − 9.36* 0.000
4 2.94 0.00 2.94 0.00
UK − 0.68 − 7.94* 0.000
5 3.19 0.00 3.67 0.00
Japan − 0.77 − 4.09* 0.000
Germany 2 1.22 0.12 3.49 0.00
China − 0.85 − 18.30* 0.000
3 2.73 0.00 2.78 0.00
Canada − 0.68 − 9.32* 0.000
4 2.96 0.00 2.39 0.00
South Korea − 0.76 − 5.38* 0.000
5 3.06 0.00 2.82 0.00
India − 0.65 − 4.17* 0.000
Russia 2 2.48 0.00 1.52 0.13
3 2.96 0.00 2.56 0.00 *
Significance level at 1 %.
4 2.92 0.00 2.18 0.00
5 3.07 0.00 3.00 0.00
USA 2 2.09 0.00 2.82 0.00 bond implied that the NETB boosts the EQ by restricting pollution at
3 2.53 0.00 3.01 0.00 permissible level. However, a fragile and negative NETB and CO2 bond is
4 2.94 0.00 2.49 0.00 formed in the zones that merge complete NETB quantiles, associating
5 3.06 0.00 2.47 0.00
small carbon dioxide quantiles (0.05–0.30). Additionally, a robust and
UK 2 3.52 0.00 2.95 0.00
3 2.49 0.00 3.27 0.00
positive correlation has been proven in the region, linking the highest
4 2.56 0.00 2.19 0.00 NETB quantiles with lower CO2 quantiles in France. These findings are
5 2.58 0.00 2.47 0.00 affirmed by the research of Shahbaz et al. (2018), who argue that ETB
Japan 2 2.08 0.00 3.04 0.00 contributes to enhancing EQ.
3 2.82 0.00 4.81 0.00
The USA exhibits a strong and inverse correlation between NETB and
4 2.85 0.00 2.62 0.00
5 3.00 0.00 2.77 0.00 pollution. A robust and negative association is observed across regions,
China 2 2.64 0.00 3.52 0.00 linking all NETB quantiles with lower to medium-high and high Carbon
3 2.77 0.00 3.34 0.00 emission quantiles. This strong inverse tie hinted that the NETB raises
4 2.96 0.00 3.71 0.00
the EQ by lessening emissions at significant CO2 levels. However, an
5 3.27 0.00 3.16 0.00
Canada 2 2.19 0.00 2.59 0.00
insignificant/fragile inverse NETB-CO2 bond is realized throughout di
3 2.99 0.00 3.97 0.00 visions, which join NETB quantiles associating medium-high emissions
4 3.05 0.00 2.71 0.00 quantiles. It means NETB has a weak or insignificant association with
5 4.82 0.00 2.95 0.00 CO2 at moderately high pollution ranks. The UK expresses the domi
South Korea 2 1.08 0.00 3.79 0.00
nation of the significant and inverse relationship between NETB and
3 2.09 0.00 2.25 0.00
4 2.58 0.00 2.49 0.00 CO2, found across the sectors that intermix lower to high NETB quantiles
5 2.94 0.00 2.65 0.00 (0.20–0.95) along with overall Carbon emission quantiles. The strong
India 2 2.19 0.00 3.52 0.00 negative interconnection hints that the NETB boosts the EQ by reducing
3 2.49 0.00 3.14 0.00 pollution at permissible levels. The negative feeble NETB-CO2 bond is
4 2.61 0.00 3.09 0.00
5 4.08 0.00 2.66 0.00
developed within areas that link bottom NETB quantiles (0.05–0.15),
associating complete pollution quantiles. Both powerful positive and
weak positive NETB-CO2 connections are developed between the terri
tories, which join all NETB quantiles associating the lowermost
6
Table 6 are linked with CO2 quantiles ranging from the lowest to moderate-
Results of QC Test (NETB and CO2). upper and high quantiles (0.05–0.30 & 0.45–0.95). It implies that the
Nations Coefficients Supτ | C1 C5 C10 NETB expands the EQ by dropping pollution at low and upper CO2 ranks.
Vn(τ)| However, a (insignificant) negative weak NETB-CO2 bond is witnessed
France α 8325.20 5284.23 3135.05 2522.37 within zones that amalgamate entire NETB quantiles, associating
NETB vs. γ 179.62 112.41 55.88 39.33 moderate-low pollution quantiles (0.35–0.40). An inverse vigorous
CO2 NETB-CO2 interrelation is dominant in South Korea. An inverse and
Germany α 6247.67 5684.96 4687.50 3780.78 strong bond is found between the places that join all NETB quantiles and
NETB vs. 3281.96 2691.71 2182.70 1848.40
lowermost to moderate and medium-upper to top emissions quantiles
γ
CO2
Russia α 3940.93 3770.27 249.50 205.95 (0.05–0.45 & 0.75–0.95). The negative strong tie suggests that the NETB
NETB vs. γ 167.72 157.81 49.08 45.78 improves the EQ by lowering pollution at lower to highest ranks of CO2
CO2 except for medium pollution grades. However, this correlation changes
USA 68,581.33 58,366.33 57,303.24 54,880.74
α
into a positive and strong correlation in vicinities, which collaborate
NETB vs. γ 2462.64 1483.21 1446.48 1432.10
CO2 with complete NETB quantiles associating moderate pollution quantiles.
UK α 1838.70 1547.79 1046.78 994.89 This entails that the NETB deteriorates the EQ by maximizing CO2 at
NETB vs. γ 962.77 688.61 497.73 346.80 middle grades of pollution in South Korea. The outcomes prove the
CO2 works of Ahmed et al. (2022a) and Caglar (2023), who observe that
Japan α 7118.34 3497.12 3087.18 2228.32
NETB vs. γ 606.44 301.87 217.14 118.13
NETB reduces CO2.
CO2 China shows a mixed NETB-CO2 relationship. Positive interdepen
China α 8754.54 6712.12 4772.13 1476.84 dence is recognized across locations, which unites low to moderate
NETB vs. γ 398.18 205.61 103.08 97.12 NETB quantiles with complete emission quantiles. The mainly positive
CO2
powerful tie suggests that the NETB reduces the EQ by maximizing
Canada α 7114.36 3492.10 3082.11 2225.39
NETB vs. γ 609.45 303.88 213.20 118.13 emissions at the low to middle ranks of NETB. However, a powerful
CO2 inverse bond between NETB and CO2 is established throughout localities
South α 538.40 325.35 294.70 237.57 that unite moderate-high NETB quantiles (0.65–0.95) and overall
Korea γ 288.90 198.80 125.70 98.30 emission quantiles. It displays that NETB stimulates the EQ by declining
NETB vs.
CO2 at moderate to upper ranks of NETB. Moreover, a weak positive
CO2
India α 7016.35 3295.13 3185.18 2128.30 association is also witnessed among the spots that combine moderate-
NETB vs. γ 610.40 310.85 218.16 116.12 higher NETB quantiles (0.55–0.60), associating all emission quantiles.
CO2 The findings of China are assisted by the investigation of Majeed et al.
Note: To examine the t-statistic values, a grid of 19 quantiles (0.05–0.95) is (2022), who demonstrate a time-varying connection between NE con
applied with identically spaced intervals. The values of α and γ parameters sumption and CO2 and conclude that the influence of NE consumption
(supremum norm) and their critical boundaries are given at the 1 %, 5 %, and 10 might not all the time result in enhanced EQ because of location time,
% significance levels, signified by C1, C5, and C10, respectively. and seasonal variability. Additionally, the result is affirmed by the work
of Fernández et al. (2018), who prove that energy technology expen
pollution quantiles (0.05–0.20). The findings are affirmed by the ditures reduce CO2 in China due to rapid economic growth and the
investigation of Usman (2022) and Ahmed et al. (2022b), who claim that consumption of fossil fuels.
clean energy technology expenditures increase EQ in G7 nations. In India, a weak (insignificant) and inverse link between NETB and
In Japan, the powerful negative NETB-CO2 nexus is identified pollution is leading. An inverse feeble NETB-CO2 bond is seen within
throughout spots, which conjoin low to medium-upper NETB quantiles vicinities that join complete NETB quantiles associating lowest to
(0.05–0.75), associating all pollution quantiles. The powerful negative moderately low and upper-mid to highest CO2 quantiles (0.05–0.40 &
link implied that the NETB upgrades EQ by lessening pollution at low to 0.70–0.95). It shows that NETB has an insignificant bond with EQ in
moderate-higher pollution ranks. However, a powerful positive NETB- phases of low to medium-low and highest pollution levels. A significant
CO2 nexus is established within regions that link upper-medium NETB and inverse link prevails throughout sections, the blend whole NETB
quantiles (0.80–0.95), associating complete CO2 quantiles. The vigorous quantiles associating middle to moderately high emission quantiles
positive interconnection submitted that the NETB lowers the EQ by (0.45–0.65). The powerful inverse correlation suggests that the NETB
maximizing CO2 at the topmost grades of NETB. An inverse and boosts EQ levels by lowering CO2 levels during moderate to moderately
powerful NETB-CO2 interaction is found in Canada. An inverse high pollution levels. The insignificant outcomes in India are asserted by
powerful correlation is observed in the areas that incorporate moderate- Ahmed et al. (2021), who observed that RETB has no significant influ
low to highest NETB quantiles (0.40–0.95) and complete quantiles of ence on CO2 in China.
pollution. The association displays that the NETB uplifts EQ by reducing Table 7 provides a concise overview of the relationships between
the amount of CO2 at moderately low to upper NETB grades. A negative different quantiles of NETB and CO2 in the analyzed nations, established
fragile connection prevails between the areas, which combine low to on the findings presented in Fig. 1. A significant and inverse NETB-CO2
lower-middle NETB quantiles, associating the bottom to middle-low linkage is observed in multiple economies, indicating that higher NETB
pollution quantiles (0.05–0.35). The negative, weak connection trans levels contribute to improving EQ. However, China exhibits a mixed
forms into a vigorous and positive tie among the zones that combine association, whereas India depicts a weak NETB-CO2 connection.
lower NETB quantiles with moderate to top pollution quantiles. This
result suggests that the NETB lowers the EQ by maximizing emissions at 4.3. Checking the robustness of the QQ approach
lower levels of NETB and medium to high pollution ranks. The results
corroborate the works of Usman (2022) and Ahmed et al. (2022b), who The correlation between the QQ and QR estimates is examined to
claim that clean energy technology expenditures increase EQ in G7 assess the robustness of the estimation. Fig. 2 reinforces the outcomes
nations. from the QQ evaluation, as it demonstrates that the mean slope coeffi
In Russia, a predominant and powerful negative connection exists cient estimates for both QQ and QR are consistent throughout whole
between NETB and CO2. This powerful and inverse interconnection economies, as indicated by the statistics.
between NETB and pollution is evident in regions where NETB quantiles Fig. 2 illustrates the inverse NETB-CO2 association in France, Ger
many, the USA, Canada, China, South Korea, the UK, and Japan.
7
Additionally, China exhibits a mixed relationship between NETB and 4.4. Discussion of results
CO2, while India shows an insignificant or weak association between the
two variables. Moreover, the dataset shows that the NETB-CO2 linkage The estimations reveal a significant inverse NETB-CO2 association in
changes across economies. The coefficient values shed light on why nearly all countries. NETB has been consistently identified as a factor
NETB has a significantly more pronounced influence on CO2 in Japan contributing to reduced CO2 in the majority of the economies studied,
and China. At the same time, its effect is relatively less pronounced in aligning with previous empirical research findings, like Balsalobre et al.
Russia, South Korea, and India. (2015), Ahmed et al. (2022a), Caglar (2023) that specify that NETB and
clean energy development expenditures reduce CO2. The findings,
which indicate a negative relationship between NETB and CO2, are
Fig. 1. Quantile-on-quantile (QQ) estimates of the slope coefficient α1 (θ, τ ).

Note: The z-axis displays the estimations of slope coefficients α1(θ,τ ), with NETB quantiles on the x-axis and CO2 quantiles on the y-axis. The color scale used to
represent the slope coefficients on the right-hand side ranges from red (highest) to blue (lowest), where the deep blue hue denotes a strong negative NETB-CO2
connection. In contrast, the dark red color specifies a positive, powerful linkage. Similarly, the lighter blue color denotes a weak negative NETB-CO2 association,
whereas the lighter red color indicates a weak positive relationship.
8
Fig. 1. (continued).
partially supported by the studies conducted by Fernández et al. (2018) production from conventional carbon-intensive sources, such as coal, to
for Europe, Álvarez-Herránz et al. (2017) for OECD nations, and Usman greener alternatives like nuclear power, wind, and solar energy. This
(2022) and Ahmed et al. (2022b) for G7 economies. These studies also shift towards low-carbon sources could contribute to the observed
suggest that increasing NETB contributes to improving EQ. decline in CO2. Another plausible explanation for the mixed findings is
The findings for China exhibit a mixed pattern across several NETB- the existence of a “U-shaped” NETB-CO2 interaction. In this scenario,
CO2 quantiles. The results propose that, at lower to middle levels of CO2 might initially rise with increasing NETB but start to decrease
NETB, there is an increase in CO2, suggesting a negative impact on EQ. beyond a certain threshold, indicating a non-linear association between
However, at higher levels of NETB, the CO2 starts to decrease, indicating the variables. Several factors contribute to this trend, including tech
a positive influence on EQ. The outcomes ordinate with the findings of nological advancements, energy policy shifts, and energy consumption
Majeed et al. (2022), who also found a time-varying NE-CO2 linkage. patterns. Nonetheless, the overall pattern of decreasing CO2 at higher
They concluded that the impact of NETB on EQ might only sometimes levels of NETB indicates the potential significance of investing in NE
lead to improvements due to seasonal variations, time, and location. The R&D to reduce China’s carbon emissions and address the challenges of
outcomes are further backed by Fernández et al. (2018), who suggest climate change. China can work towards a cleaner and more environ
that energy technology expenditures have a CO2-reducing effect in mentally friendly future by leveraging technological innovations and
China, primarily due to the country’s rapid economic growth and reli adopting sustainable energy practices.
ance on fossil fuels. The mixed association observed at lower levels of In numerous nations, including France, Germany, the USA, Russia,
NETB in China could be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the tech and South Korea, a strong negative relationship between NETB and CO2
nology utilized in NE production might be less advanced or efficient, becomes evident, especially at higher quantiles of CO2. This trend is
resulting in higher carbon emissions than more developed NE technol logically rooted in the fundamental principles of NE’s role in national
ogies. Secondly, at these levels, China might prioritize investments in energy matrices and the intrinsic characteristics of nuclear technology.
traditional energy sources like coal, which is known for its high carbon At the outset, it is essential to understand that NE provides a highly
intensity and significant contribution to CO2. At higher levels of NETB, efficient and low-carbon alternative to fossil fuel-based power genera
the findings indicate a decrease in CO2. Multiple elements might account tion. As countries reach higher quantiles of CO2, the urgency to reduce
for this situation. First, China’s increased investment in NE R&D enables these emissions intensifies due to environmental, economic, and social
the development and implementation of advanced and efficient NE pressures, including international commitments to climate change
technologies. These technologies contribute to a reduction in carbon mitigation. In this context, the NETB becomes a critical tool for gov
intensity and promote cleaner energy production. Furthermore, at these ernments to leverage. Increased investment in nuclear technology R&D
elevated levels of NETB, China may be transitioning its energy and deployment facilitates the transition towards more sustainable
9
Table 7 USA, despite differences in their energy policies and reliance on NE, also
Summary of outcomes (linkage b/w several quantiles of NETB and CO2). show that targeted investments in NETB can yield considerable divi
Economies NETB CO2 quantiles Linkage b/w Dominant dends in CO2 emission reductions, especially as they strive to phase out
quantiles quantiles connection coal and increase their share of clean energy. The strong and negative
France Complete Mid-lower to Negative Powerful relationship between NETB and CO2 at higher quantiles in Russia and
quantiles high-middle powerful inverse South Korea can be attributed to their strategic emphasis on advanced
quantiles nuclear technologies, including next-generation reactors and nuclear
Whole Low quantiles Feeble fuel cycles. These technologies offer enhanced efficiency and safety,
quantiles inverse
Highest Lower quantiles Positive
further encouraging the shift away from carbon-intensive energy sour
quantiles strong ces. Moreover, the relationship strengthens at higher quantiles of CO2
Germany Entire Mid-lower to Inverse Powerful due to the scalability of NE. Unlike renewable sources, nuclear power
quantiles high-middle strong inverse plants can provide large-scale, baseload electricity with consistent
quantiles
output, making them indispensable in significantly reducing high CO2.
Overall Bottom quantiles Inverse
quantiles fragile As countries escalate their efforts to curb emissions, the value of NE’s
China Medium-high Complete Powerful Mixed scalability becomes increasingly apparent, reinforcing the negative
quantiles quantiles negative linkage correlation between NETB and CO2.
Bottom to Complete Inverse In Canada, a strong negative relationship between NETB and CO2
median quantiles strong
quantiles
becomes evident, especially at higher quantiles of NETB. This relation
Upper- Whole quantiles Fragile ship is deeply rooted in Canada’s strategic approach to energy policy,
medium inverse environmental stewardship, and technological innovation within the
quantiles nuclear sector. At higher levels of NETB, Canada prioritizes developing
USA Complete Bottom to Strong Negative
and deploying cutting-edge nuclear technologies, including small
quantiles medium-high Inverse powerful
and high modular reactors and advancements in nuclear fuel efficiency and waste
quantiles management. These investments aim to enhance NE’s efficiency, safety,
All quantiles Moderately Fragile and environmental footprint. As a result, with increased financial
higher quantiles inverse commitment to nuclear technology, there is a direct and significant
UK Lowest to Complete Strong Inverse
impact on reducing CO2. NE offers a low-carbon alternative to fossil
highest quantiles inverse powerful
quantiles fuels, capable of generating large amounts of electricity without direct
Low quantiles Entire quantiles Feeble CO2 during operation. Furthermore, the strategic allocation of a higher
inverse NETB in Canada is also motivated by the country’s commitment to
All quantiles Low quantiles Mixture of
meeting international climate targets and transitioning to a low-carbon
strong
positive and economy. As the budget for nuclear technology increases, it accelerates
weak positive the phasing out of coal-fired power plants and reduces reliance on nat
Japan Lower to Complete Negative Powerful ural gas, thereby decreasing CO2. This transition is critical for Canada,
moderately quantiles strong negative given its vast and diverse energy needs across its provinces and
high quantiles
territories.
Upper-mid Entire quantiles Positive
quantiles strong The relationship between NETB and CO2 becomes increasingly
Russia All quantiles Lower and Powerful Inverse negative at higher budget quantiles due to the scalability and reliability
moderately low negative strong of nuclear power. Unlike intermittent renewable energy sources, nuclear
to highest
power can provide continuous, baseload electricity, essential for a
quantiles
Overall Moderately low Inverse
country like Canada, with its extensive industrial sectors and harsh
quantiles quantiles feeble winters requiring consistent energy supply. The scalability of NE means
Canada Lower-mid to Entire quantiles Inverse Inverse that as Canada invests more in nuclear technology, it can significantly
high quantiles powerful strong expand its nuclear capacity, displacing more carbon-intensive energy
Low to Lower to Inverse
sources and substantially reducing CO2. Additionally, Canada’s
moderately medium-lower feeble
low quantiles quantiles approach to NE is not just about expanding capacity but also about
Low quantiles Moderate n to Positive leading in the global NE sector through innovation and exports. By
highest quantiles powerful investing heavily in NETB, Canada is a hub for nuclear R&D, contrib
South Overall Lower to Inverse Powerful
uting to global nuclear safety standards and technological advance
Korea quantiles moderate and powerful inverse
moderate-higher
ments. This leadership role helps reduce global CO2 by adopting
to topmost Canadian nuclear technologies and strengthens the negative relation
quantiles ship between NETB and CO2 domestically by showcasing NE’s effec
Complete Mid quantiles Positive tiveness and environmental benefits.
quantiles powerful
In the case of India, the analysis reveals an insignificant or weak
India Whole Bottom to low- Negative Weak
quantiles mid and high- fragile negative association between NETB and CO2 across most quantiles of each vari
mid to topmost able. This outcome is consistent with the investigation by Ahmed et al.
quantiles (2021), who also found no significant impact of RETB on CO2 in China.
Complete Moderate to Powerful These results suggest that other factors beyond NETB may be more
quantiles upper-mid inverse
quantiles
prominent in driving CO2 in India. To comprehensively address and
mitigate CO2 in the country, it is essential to consider a broader range of
factors and develop comprehensive strategies beyond the scope of NETB
energy sources, directly contributing to significant reductions in CO2. alone. These results can be attributed to the distinctive energy mix
France serves as a prime example, where substantial investments in observed in India compared to countries like the USA and Germany. In
NE have enabled the country to meet a significant portion of its elec India, a significant proportion of energy production is derived from
tricity demand with nuclear power, significantly lowering its CO2 alternative renewable solar and wind power sources, including con
compared to other nations with similar energy needs. Germany and the ventional hydroelectric power. This suggests that the impact of NETB on
10
CO2 may be less significant in India, given the country’s ongoing shift to China’s, leading to limitations in the impact of NETB on CO2 due to
a more sustainable and low-carbon energy blend. The existing emphasis infrastructure constraints. These factors highlight the complex dynamics
on renewable energy sources in India could already contribute to in India’s energy sector and suggest that multiple factors beyond NETB
reduced CO2, thereby minimizing the discernible influence of NETB on alone influence CO2 in the country. The disparity in technological ca
CO2 levels. Moreover, India’s substantial energy requirements may drive pabilities and resource availability, such as limited access to uranium,
increased investments in typical oil and coal energy sources, which may hinder India’s ability to utilize NETB for CO2 reduction effectively.
could counterbalance any emissions reductions achieved through NE The observed weak or insignificant negative associations between NETB
R&D efforts. This could contribute to the weak or insignificant negative and CO2 in India suggest that NE R&D may have a limited impact on CO2
associations observed between NETB and CO2 in most quantiles. Addi reduction compared to other countries. In order to address its carbon
tionally, India’s energy infrastructure may not be as advanced as footprint and mitigate climate change, India may need to prioritize the
Fig. 2. Verifying the QQ tool’s robustness by relating QQ and QR estimations.

Note: The presentation displays the estimates of both averaged-QQ and traditional QR parameters across several CO2 quantiles.
11
Fig. 2. (continued).
development of its RE sector and shift away from traditional sources like CO2, hence the inverse relationship. This shift reflects China’s strategic
coal and oil. By focusing on the expansion and optimization of renew pivot towards cleaner energy sources as part of its commitment to
able energy sources, India can work towards achieving its carbon peaking CO2 before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. As
reduction goals and ensuring a sustainable energy future. the NETB increases, it signifies a more profound commitment to this
Nevertheless, the situation takes a different turn in China, where the transition, emphasizing the deployment of advanced nuclear technolo
positive connection between NETB and CO2 is noticeable only up to mid gies. These technologies offer greater efficiency and safety and align
quantiles of NETB; beyond this threshold, it transformed into a negative with global sustainability goals, further cementing the inverse correla
relationship. This unique trend indicates the complex interplay between tion between NETB and CO2 at higher investment levels. Moreover, the
China’s aggressive energy expansion strategies and its ambitious envi transition beyond the mid quantiles of NETB reflects the effectiveness of
ronmental targets. Initially, at lower to mid quantiles of NETB, the China’s policy measures to integrate NE more fully into the national
positive correlation can be attributed to China’s developmental phase grid. By overcoming initial infrastructural and regulatory hurdles, the
characterized by rapid industrial growth and urbanization. During this increased NETB facilitates the expansion of nuclear capacity, which, in
period, the increase in NETB coincides with substantial reliance on coal turn, contributes to a more sustainable energy mix with lower carbon
and other fossil fuels to meet the country’s burgeoning energy demands. emissions. Additionally, the shift in the relationship can be partly
While investments in nuclear technology are growing, they initially attributed to the evolving nature of China’s economy, moving from
supplement rather than replace fossil fuel usage, leading to a concurrent heavy industrialization towards a more service-oriented and high-tech
increase in CO2. This phenomenon reflects the reality of China’s energy economy. This economic transformation demands a cleaner energy
sector transitioning, where NE development is part of a broader energy mix to mitigate environmental impacts, including CO2. The strategic
strategy that still includes significant contributions from fossil fuels. increase in NETB beyond mid quantiles is crucial in supporting this
However, as NETB investments cross a certain threshold into higher economic shift by providing a reliable and clean energy source that
quantiles, the relationship with CO2 notably shifts. Several vital factors complements the country’s environmental and economic objectives.
underpin this change. Firstly, at higher levels of investment in nuclear The impact of NETB on EQ exhibits significant variations across
technology, the scale of nuclear power generation reaches a critical economies and quantiles. Disregarding these heterogeneities can lead to
mass, enabling a more significant displacement of coal-fired power erroneous conclusions. The diverse slope coefficients observed for NETB
plants. Since coal is a primary source of CO2, its replacement with nu and CO2 in different economies indicate that the NETB-EQ association is
clear power—a virtually zero-emission energy source—directly reduces not uniformly constant across all quantiles, including the lower, middle,
12
and upper ranges. Instead, the relationship between NETB and CO2 is governments and other stakeholders on promoting further development
influenced by various factors, including the volume and characteristics in NE R&D to reduce CO2 in the top 10 NE R&D countries. It is advised
of economic shocks, along with the prevailing economic situations, for that governments prioritize increasing their investments in NE R&D.
example, periods of economic growth or recession, which can impact These countries should strive to allocate a higher proportion of their
NETB (Ayhan et al., 2023). The presence and indicators of economic national budgets towards advancing NE technologies. By intensifying
shocks can significantly influence the NETB-CO2 relationship. In times of investments in NE R&D, countries can expedite the progress of safer and
economic recession or instability, countries may prioritize to short-run more efficient nuclear technologies, encompassing enhanced reactor
economic growth over long-term environmental sustainability, poten designs, optimized nuclear fuel cycles, and improved strategies for
tially resulting in increased CO2 and reduced investment in NETB. managing nuclear waste. These advancements have the potential to
Conversely, during periods of economic prosperity, countries may have decrease CO2 substantially. Furthermore, increased investments in NE
additional resources available to invest in NETB and alternative low- R&D can have noteworthy economic implications, such as creating new
carbon energy sources, potentially resulting in reduced CO2. There job opportunities within the nuclear sector and contributing to overall
fore, the relationship between NETB and CO2 can vary depending on the economic growth. International collaboration in NE R&D plays a pivotal
prevailing economic situation within a particular country. Furthermore, role in avoiding duplication of efforts and expediting advancements.
a country’s specific economic stage, whether in a growth phase, stag Governments and other stakeholders must collaborate and share
nation, or decline, can also influence the NETB-CO2 relationship. For knowledge, resources, and best practices to foster the widespread
instance, in the initial phases of development, a developing economy adoption of the most promising nuclear technologies worldwide.
may prioritize economic growth over environmental sustainability. In Through collaborative efforts, researchers can access state-of-the-art
contrast, a developed nation may emphasize reducing its carbon foot equipment and stay updated with the latest research findings, facili
print and changeover to a low-carbon nation. Consequently, the rela tating the development of innovative nuclear technologies. Further
tionship between NETB and CO2 might modify depending on the stage of more, collaboration can improve NE safety and security by promoting
economic development in a particular country. Moreover, technological transparency, sharing best practices, and establishing global safety
advancements, energy policy, and changes in energy consumption pat standards. It is crucial to prioritize safety in NE development; thus, ef
terns can also influence the relationship between NETB and CO2. For forts should be made to enhance nuclear safety standards. This includes
instance, a country heavily investing in renewable energy sources may the design, construction, and operation of nuclear power facilities to
rely less on nuclear energy R&D, which can impact the NETB-CO2 ensure their safety and security, thereby minimizing the risk of nuclear
relationship. In most economies, there is a notable negative association accidents.
between NETB and CO2 at higher quantiles of CO2. This indicates that Small modular reactors represent a highly promising technology
the effect of NETB on improving EQ is most conspicuous when CO2 with several advantages. They offer improved safety features, greater
levels are elevated. Countries such as France, South Korea, the USA, flexibility, and lower costs than other NE options. Small modular re
Russia, and Germany demonstrate a significant negative relationship actors’ compact size and versatility enable their application in various
between NETB and CO2 at higher CO2 quantiles. Thus, it is evident that contexts, including small-scale energy systems. Furthermore, Small
the NETB-CO2 association is intricate and diverse, exhibiting significant modular reactors generate less radioactive waste compared to conven
variations across different economies and quantiles. Recognizing and tional nuclear power plants. The modular design of SMRs facilitates their
considering these heterogeneities is essential in comprehending the dismantling after their operational lifespan, allowing for a more
factors that shape the association between NETB and CO2, and it serves streamlined decommissioning process. Governments should allocate
as a foundation for formulating effective policies aimed at mitigating the resources towards advancing Small modular reactors and nuclear fusion
consequences of climate change. technology, as they hold immense potential for achieving sustainable
As mentioned earlier, the disparities observed in the impact of NETB energy production. Nuclear fusion, in particular, presents a captivating
across the selected economies can be attributed to many economic avenue, as it harnesses the power generated by combining atomic nuclei
components. The variation in NETB-CO2 slope coefficients across na to form a more excellent nucleus, resulting in substantial energy release
tions confirms that the magnitude and direction of economic shocks, without any greenhouse gas emissions. With the fuel for fusion reactions
exceptionally the specific economic state (boom or recession), influence readily obtainable in the form of hydrogen isotopes, this technology
EQ through economic activities (Simionescu and Schneider, 2022). A offers a promising path towards nearly limitless clean energy
country’s economic status impacts its economic activities, including the generation.
ranking of NE. This relationship is further validated by the association Investing in advanced fuel cycles is crucial for reducing nuclear
between the economic phase and the prominence of NE (Yu et al., 2022). waste and improving the sustainability of NE. Governments must pri
Furthermore, the selected economies present challenges that could not oritize the development of fuel cycles that extract more energy and
be suitably addressed using panel data approaches alone. Therefore, we minimize waste. Additionally, increasing transparency and account
have analyzed each country individually to understand their unique ability in NE development is essential to build public trust and ensure
characteristics and attributes comprehensively. safe and responsible implementation of NE. Promoting private sector
involvement in NE R&D is vital. Governments should incentivize private
5. Conclusion and policy implications sector investment in NE R&D through tax benefits, grants, and other
supportive measures. This approach can expedite the advancement of
This study has focused on investigating the asymmetric NETB-CO2 safer and more efficient nuclear technologies.
relationship in the top 10 economies with the highest budget for NE Given the observed strong negative relationship between the NETB
R&D. To analyze this relationship, the study employed the QQ tool, and CO2, particularly at higher quantiles of CO2 in countries like France,
which accounts for time-series interdependence within each nation. The Germany, the USA, Russia, and South Korea, a targeted policy recom
findings reveal that, at definite quantiles of the data distribution, NETB mendation would focus on significantly increasing investment in NE
plays a role in improving EQ by reducing CO2 in many nations. None technology. This policy direction should maintain and expand the NETB
theless, the findings also underscore the presence of variations in the to enhance nuclear technology’s efficiency, safety, and waste manage
degree of asymmetry among the examined countries. These findings ment capabilities. Such investments are crucial for developing and
highlight the need for policymakers to exercise caution and consider the deploying advanced nuclear reactors, including small modular reactors,
specific contexts of each country when implementing NETB and envi which offer the potential for more flexible and scalable nuclear power
ronmental policies. solutions. Additionally, policies should encourage international collab
Based on the estimations, the study offers policy recommendations to oration on nuclear safety standards, technological innovation, and best
13
practices sharing to optimize NE’s role in reducing global CO2. project of Humanities and Social Sciences (SK2021A0776).
Furthermore, it is essential to integrate NE expansion plans with broader
energy transition strategies, emphasizing the role of nuclear power in CRediT authorship contribution statement
achieving a sustainable, low-carbon energy mix. This approach should
also include public engagement and education efforts to improve soci Anzhong Huang: Writing – original draft, Writing – review & edit
etal acceptance and support for NE, comprehensively addressing safety ing. Meiwen Guo: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Writing – orig
and environmental concerns. inal draft. Luote Dai: Software, Writing – original draft. Aboubakar
In light of the strong negative correlation between the NETB and CO2 Mirza: Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. Sajid Ali:
at higher quantiles of NETB in Canada, it is recommended that the Ca Data curation, Writing – original draft.
nadian government and policymakers further escalate their investments
in nuclear technology. This strategic investment should focus on Data availability
advancing NE as a cornerstone of Canada’s energy transition strategy
towards a low-carbon future. Emphasis should be placed on funding Data will be made available on request.
R&D of advanced nuclear technologies, such as small modular reactors,
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Anzhong Huang is a Professor in School of Economics and Management, Jiangsu Uni
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versity of Science and Technology. His research interests are environmental economics,
cost effectiveness of preserving existing US nuclear power plants as a carbon
energy economics, and international trade. His email is az311@just.edu.cn.
avoidance strategy. Energy 131, 67–77.
Shahbaz, M., Nasir, M.A., Roubaud, D., 2018. Environmental degradation in France: the
effects of FDI, financial development, and energy innovations. Energy Econ. 74, Meiwen Guo is Professor in School of Management, Guangzhou Xinhua University, China.
843–857. Her field of interest is management sciences and environmental economics. She can be
Sharif, A., Mishra, S., Sinha, A., Jiao, Z., Shahbaz, M., Afshan, S., 2020. The renewable reached at gmw@xhsysu.edu.cn.
energy consumption-environmental degradation nexus in Top-10 polluted countries:
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Luote Dai is affiliated with School of Digital Economy and Trade, Wenzhou polytechnic,
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China. His email is luote26@wzpt.edu.cn.
Sharif, A., Bhattacharya, M., Afshan, S., Shahbaz, M., 2021. Disaggregated renewable
energy sources in mitigating CO2 emissions: new evidence from the USA using
quantile regressions. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 28 (41), 57582–57601. Aboubakar Mirza is working as an Assistant Professor in School of Economics, Bahauddin
Sim, N., Zhou, H., 2015. Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan. His research interests are financial economics and
quantiles. J. Bank. Financ. 55, 1–8. accounting & finance. His email is abubakarmirza@hotmail.com.
Simionescu, M., Schneider, N., 2022. Revisiting the nuclear energy-income nexus in
Europe: an application of the JKS panel causality test with cross-sectional Sajid Ali is an Assistant Professor in School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University,
dependence and heterogeneity. Int. J. Energy Res. 46 (6), 8328–8351. Multan, Pakistan. His research interests are environmental economics, energy economics,
Ulussever, T., Kartal, M.T., Kılıç Depren, S., 2023. Effect of income, energy consumption, and international trade. His email is sajidali1136@gmail.com.
energy prices, political stability, and geopolitical risk on the environment: evidence
from GCC countries by novel quantile-based methods. Energy Environ. 55 (1),
10–20.
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Technological Forecasting & Social Change 202 (2024) 123321

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Technological Forecasting & Social Change