BUY (Maintained) 

CMP: INR 350 Target Price: INR 425  21% ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report

15 August 2023 India | Equity Research | Q1FY24 results review

Astra Microwave Products

Defence

Margins have bottomed out, prospects remain bright

Astra Microwave Products’ (AMW) has reported subdued Q1FY24 earnings as performance was mainly impacted by
higher proportion of export sales and low margin domestic sales. Key points: 1) Export sales was 60% (vs 40% in
Q1FY23) of overall; 2) EBITDA declined 86.7% YoY to INR 31mn as normalised cost could not be mitigated by low
margin execution; 3) management expects order inflow of INR 10bn in FY24 and orderbook as on Jun’23 end was INR
15.8bn (export - ~19% and domestic - ~81%). The management has retained its revenue guidance of INR 9bn and PBT
guidance of INR 1.4-1.5bn for FY24. As high margin domestic orders are likely to be executed from Q3FY24, we believe
the prospects remain bright. We maintain BUY on the stock with an unchanged TP of INR 425 (DCF methodology).

Dismal performance due to lower margin exports Amit Dixit

amit.dixit@icicisecurities.com
AMW’s Q1FY24 EBITDA was mainly impacted by: a) lower margin exports +91 22 6807 7289
(including deemed exports); b) lower margin domestic sales and c) higher Mohit Lohia
contribution of exports (~60% of revenue). That said, the management mohit.lohia@icicisecurities.com
mentioned that the company did not incur loss in any of these contracts. Pritish Urumkar
Pritish.urumkar@icicisecurities.com
During Q1FY24, it received order inflow of INR 1.9bn, which includes defence
orders worth INR 1.6bn, export orders worth INR 0.13bn and meteorological
orders worth INR 0.12bn. Orderbook as on Jun’23 end was INR 15.8bn, of
which export orders were ~19% and the rest were domestic orders. Going Market Data
ahead, we believe, while cost has normalised, execution may pick up in Market Cap (INR) 33bn
subsequent quarters and may recoup the shortfall of Q1FY24. Market Cap (USD) 399mn
Bloomberg Code ASTM IN
Execution/margin likely to pick up in ensuing quarters Reuters Code ASTM.BO
The management is expecting order inflow of more than INR 10bn during FY24 52-week Range (INR) 390 /213
(INR 1.9bn already received) and majority of these orders will be awarded in Free Float (%) 87.0
ADTV-3M (mn) (USD) 2.8
Q3FY24 and Q4FY24. These include: 1) Order for naval system, ii) Mk1 engines,
iii) anti-drone radars, iv) defence satellite subsystem, v) development contract Price Performance (%) 3m 6m 12m
for airborne radar etc. The company has also maintained its FY24 revenue
Absolute 9.1 31.7 26.6
guidance of over INR 9bn+ including domestic revenue of more than INR 6bn. Relative to Sensex 6.4 8.2 11.4
The management has guided for export orders at only 22% of overall revenue in
H2FY24. In our view, this is likely to be margin accretive as besides lower
ESG Disclosure 2021 2022 Change
proportion of exports, good margin domestic orders may also get executed.
ESG score - - -
Environment - - -
Financial Summary Social - - -
Y/E March (INR mn) FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E Governance - - -
Net Revenue 7,505 8,155 9,497 10,901 Note - Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher
score indicating higher ESG disclosures.
EBITDA 892 1,476 2,137 2,635
Source: Bloomberg, I-sec research
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.9 18.1 22.5 24.2
Net Profit 379 698 1,259 1,625
EPS (Rs) 4.3 8.0 14.4 18.5 Previous Reports
EPS % Chg YoY 25.2 81.4 77.0 28.4
30-05-2023: Q4FY23 results review
P/E (x) 76.3 42.1 23.8 18.5
14-11-2022: Q2FY23 results review
EV/EBITDA (x) 34.7 21.2 14.3 11.4
RoCE (%) 7.7 12.3 18.1 19.7
RoE (%) 6.7 11.7 19.0 21.1

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Astra Microwave Products | Q1FY24 results review | 15 August 2023

Near-term hiccups, but larger picture intact

In our view, any fall in the stock price post Q1FY24 earnings is an opportunity to
participate in the long-term growth story of the company as guidance on FY24
revenue, margin and cumulative revenue target of INR 100bn in next five years is
largely intact. Taking cues from management commentary, we have maintained our
estimates. We expect majority of high margin domestic orders to be executed in
H2FY24. In our view, AMW’s order potential is robust and its solution-oriented
approach being built on the twin planks of collaboration with external parties and
internal competencies – may result in better margins. We maintain BUY on the stock
with an unchanged TP of INR 425 based on DCF methodology.

Astra Microwave Q1FY24 result review

(INR mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 % Chg YoY Q4FY23 % Chg QoQ FY23 FY22 % Chg YoY
Net sales 1,337 1,621 (17.5) 2,584 (48.3) 8,155 7,505 8.7
Gross Margin 377 572 (34.0) 792 (52.3) 2,972 2,233 33.1
Gross Margin (%) 28 35 - 31 - 36 30 -
Employee cost 215 211 1.7 275 (21.9) 952 806 18.1
Other expenditure 132 130 1.6 174 (24.3) 544 534 1.8
EBITDA 31 231 (86.7) 343 (91.0) 1,476 892 65.5
Margin (%) 2 14 - 13 - 18 12 -
Other Income 20 8 146.0 10 108.0 55 64 (14.3)
Depreciation 57 55 2.7 63 (9.9) 237 220 7.3
EBIT (6) 184 (103.2) 290 (102.0) 1,294 736 76.0
Interest 74 57 31.2 96 (22.6) 305 211 44.7
PBT (82) 117 (169.6) 180 (145.5) 959 502 -
Tax expense: (14) 36 (139.6) 44 (132.5) 261 123 111.6
PAT (67) 81 (183.1) 135 (149.8) 698 379 84.4
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Astra Microwave Q1FY24 concall takeaways

 Management mentioned Q1FY24 topline was in accordance with the guidance.

 FY24 guidance: Management maintained its revenue guidance of INR ~9-9.5bn

with INR 3bn in exports. PBT guidance of INR ~1.4-1.5bn was also maintained.

 Current orderbook stands at INR 15.8bn. Order booking during the quarter was
around INR 1.91bn, which includes INR 1.76bn and INR 150mn of domestic (DRDO
& DPSUs) and export orders, respectively.

 Revenue mix - 60% of export and 40% of domestic (almost reverse of Q1FY23).

 No losses in any contract. Export order categories: 1) Very low margin; 2) 10%
margin. Most export orders executed in Q1FY24 were of project executed with very
low margin.

 Domestic margins are relatively higher than export margins. In Q1FY24, lower
domestic business, coupled with lower margin export mix led to a decline in gross
margin and percolated down as well.

 On expenditure: INR 30mn worth of provision has been accounted as per

accounting standards. This is not a cost and will get adjusted as Astra delivers
goods.

 Astra targets to turn positive by Q2FY24, as major domestic business is expected

to do well and expenses have been largely normalised.

India | Equity Research 2

Astra Microwave Products | Q1FY24 results review | 15 August 2023

 Business developments

o Identified growth areas for expansion – SAT-CAM systems, in profile radars,

ground surveillance radars, doppler weather radar, anti-drone systems etc.

o Astra Microwave has signed a tri-party agreement with LRDE & HAL for the
supply of critical sub-system for ASEA radar.

o NAVIC: Astra Microwave is expecting clearance for commercial production by

Sep’23.

o SDR based DRDO technology is currently undergoing testing and validation

under LRDE. Management aims to commence internal trials by mid-Sep’23.

o On Aug’23, management concluded negotiation worth INR 1.6bn with DRDO

for sub-systems, including satellite modules, EW modules, and development of
airborne radars and production of radar modules. Also, contacts worth INR
1.4bn are in final stages of negotiation.

o Strategically secured R&D contacts from DRDO.

o Strengthened foot print in doppler weather radar by securing more contacts

from IMDA and ISRO.

o Participating in various global opportunities in radar, EW and communication

systems.

o Successfully developed AESA seeker system and telemetry proximity sensor.

o Initiated the development of Hi-Fi chipsets and a few radar systems.

 Astra is moving to solution and system integration, with core in defence -

aerospace. Management intends to provide military grade solutions in cost-
effective format centred around multiple technologies within Astra Microwave,
while partnering with multiple industry players to create end-to-end solutions.

 Export execution for Q2FY24 is planned at INR 800mn, for Q3FY24 at INR 730mn
and for Q4FY24 at INR 700mn.

 Maximum revenue booking will be executed during Q3-Q4FY24. (INR 3,380mn in

Q3FY24 and INR3,000mn in Q4FY24 with exports worth INR ~700mn in both the
quarters). Majority will come from domestic segment.

 Contracts like naval system are planned to be booked in Q3FY24.

 TR modules - AKASH contracts secured in Q1FY24 are planned to be executed in

Q4FY24.

 Anti-drone- ARUDHRA, negotiations have just begun; expect finalisation by

Q3FY24.

 Expected production orders include AWC Mk1 engines, defence satellite

subsystem along with development contract airborne radar, drone based radar
sub-system. Short range tracking radar (declared L1 for the project worth INR
100mn). Finally in EW, orders from Shakti, Nayan, Himshakti, Himshruti etc
programmes.

 Service order stands at INR 500mn – service business is generally weather related.
In Q1FY24, no service orders were received.

India | Equity Research 3

Astra Microwave Products | Q1FY24 results review | 15 August 2023

Key risks
Key downside risks: i) Working capital management – continuous investment in
working capital impedes FCF generation. This has been a key problem faced by AMW
in the past cycle. ii) Missing domestic defence and space orders, thereby top-line
growth does not lead to commensurate profit growth and the beat – upgrade cycle
fails to pick up.
Key upside risks: i) Possible divestment of AMW’s promoter stake (now at 8.7%), and
ii) pick-up in domestic order inflow in line with the domestic defence capital budget
(we are looking at significantly higher scale and operating leverage benefit to margins
under this scenario).

Shareholding pattern Price chart

% Dec‘22 Mar‘23 Jun‘23 450
Promoters 8.3 7.2 6.5 400
Institutional investors 2.3 2.4 12.9 350
300
MFs and others 0.1 0.1 6.4
250
FIs/Banks - - -
200
Insurance - - 2.4
(INR)

150
FIIs 2.2 2.3 4.1 100
Others 89.3 90.4 80.6 50
0

Aug-21
Feb-21

Feb-22

Feb-23
Aug-20

Aug-22

Aug-23
Apr-21
Jun-21

Apr-22
Jun-22

Apr-23
Jun-23
Dec-22
Dec-20

Dec-21
Oct-20

Oct-21

Oct-22
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

India | Equity Research 4

Astra Microwave Products | Q1FY24 results review | 15 August 2023

Financial Summary
Profit & Loss Cashflow statement
(INR mn, year ending March) (INR mn, year ending March)

FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E

Net Sales 7,505 8,155 9,497 10,901 Operating Cashflow 2,119 1,272 1,498 1,408
Operating Expenses 6,612 6,679 7,360 8,266 Working Capital Changes 1,355 2 (300) (800)
EBITDA 892 1,476 2,137 2,635 Capital Commitments (279) (333) (395) (358)
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.9 18.1 22.5 24.2 Free Cashflow 1,840 939 1,103 1,050
Depreciation & Amortization 220 237 244 259 Other investing cashflow 20 51 55 56
EBIT 672 1,240 1,893 2,375 Cashflow from Investing
(260) (282) (340) (302)
Interest expenditure 211 305 320 348 Activities
Other Non-operating Issue of Share Capital - - - -
64 55 55 55
Income Interest Cost (172) (206) (320) (348)
Recurring PBT 525 989 1,628 2,082 Inc (Dec) in Borrowings (512) 1,076 - -
Profit / (Loss) from Dividend paid (104) (122) (122) (122)
- - - -
Associates Others - - - -
Less: Taxes 123 261 339 427 Cash flow from Financing
(787) 748 (442) (470)
PAT 401 728 1,289 1,654 Activities
Less: Minority Interest 23 30 30 30 Chg. in Cash & Bank
1,072 1,738 716 636
Extraordinaries (Net) - - - - balance
Net Income (Reported) 401 728 1,289 1,654 Closing cash & balance 1,072 1,738 716 636
Net Income (Adjusted) 379 698 1,259 1,625
Source Company data, I-Sec research
Source Company data, I-Sec research
Key ratios
Balance sheet (Year ending March)
(INR mn, year ending March)
FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E
FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E Per Share Data (INR)
Total Current Assets 7,880 8,713 9,959 11,604 Reported EPS 4.6 8.3 14.7 18.9
of which cash & cash eqv. 775 1,109 1,824 2,460 Adjusted EPS (Diluted) 4.3 8.0 14.4 18.5
Total Current Liabilities & Cash EPS 6.8 10.7 17.2 21.5
2,594 2,323 2,553 2,763
Provisions Dividend per share (DPS) 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6
Net Current Assets 5,286 6,390 7,406 8,842 Book Value per share (BV) 66.8 73.3 86.7 104.2
Investments 138 110 110 110 Dividend Payout (%) 30.6 19.3 10.9 8.5
Net Fixed Assets 1,596 1,668 1,821 1,920
ROU Assets - - - - Growth (%)
Capital Work-in-Progress 1 22 20 20 Net Sales 17.1 8.7 16.5 14.8
Total Intangible Assets - - - - EBITDA 15.6 65.5 44.8 23.3
Other assets - - - - EPS (INR) 25.2 81.4 77.0 28.4
Deferred Tax assests 69 91 91 91
Total Assets 7,091 8,281 9,448 10,982 Valuation Ratios (x)
Liabilities P/E 76.3 42.1 23.8 18.5
Borrowings 1,235 1,855 1,855 1,855 P/CEPS 51.1 32.8 20.4 16.3
Deferred Tax Liability - - - - P/BV 5.2 4.8 4.0 3.4
provisions - - - - EV / EBITDA 34.7 21.2 14.3 11.4
other Liabilities - - - - Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Equity Share Capital 173 173 173 173
Reserves & Surplus 5,683 6,253 7,420 8,954 Operating Ratios
Total Net Worth 5,856 6,426 7,593 9,127 Gross Profit Margins (%) 29.7 36.4 40.3 41.1
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 EBITDA Margins (%) 11.9 18.1 22.5 24.2
Total Liabilities 7,091 8,281 9,448 10,982 Effective Tax Rate (%) 23.5 26.4 20.8 20.5
Source Company data, I-Sec research Net Profit Margins (%) 5.3 8.9 13.6 15.2
Net Debt / Equity (x) 0.1 0.1 0.0 (0.1)
Quarterly trend Net Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.4 0.4 0.0 (0.3)
(INR mn, year ending March) Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
Inventory Turnover Days 247 208 195 192
Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Receivables Days 121 141 134 136
Net Sales 1,747 2,203 2,584 1,337 Payables Days 42 32 37 37
% growth (YOY) (2.9) 8.9 7.9 (17.5)
EBITDA 393 509 343 31 Profitability Ratios
Margin % 22.5 23.1 13.3 2.3 RoCE (%) 7.7 12.3 18.1 19.7
Other Income 21 16 10 20 RoE (%) 6.7 11.7 19.0 21.1
Extraordinaries - - - - RoIC (%) 8.8 14.2 21.7 24.6
Adjusted Net Profit 205 277 135 (67)
Source Company data, I-Sec research
Source Company data, I-Sec research

India | Equity Research 5

Astra Microwave Products | Q1FY24 results review | 15 August 2023

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New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

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Astra Microwave Products | Q1FY24 results review | 15 August 2023

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