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Statistical inference basic Class Outline

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10 views

Statistical inference basic Class Outline

Statistics interfere

Uploaded by

akkhanji08
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Class Outline:

Topic: Basic Estimation & Confidence Interval


Objective: By the end of this class, students should understand point estimation,
interval estimation, construct confidence intervals, and interpret them effectively.

Part 1: Introduction to Estimation

1.1 Population vs. Sample:

Population: A population in statistics refers to the entire group of individuals


or items that we are interested in studying. For example, if we want to know
the average height of all university students, the population includes every
university student.

Sample: A sample is a subset of the population, chosen to represent the entire


group. Since it's often impractical to study the entire population, we collect a
sample and use it to make inferences about the population.

Answer to question:
A population is the complete set of all elements we are interested in, while a
sample is a smaller group taken from the population to represent it.

1.2 Parameter vs. Statistic:

Parameter: A parameter is a value that describes a characteristic of the


population, such as the population mean (denoted μ\muμ).

Statistic: A statistic is a value calculated from the sample, such as the sample
mean (xˉ\bar{x}xˉ), used to estimate the population parameter.

Answer to question:
A parameter is a fixed value describing a population, while a statistic is a
calculated value from a sample used to estimate the parameter.

1.3 Types of Estimation:

Point Estimation:
A point estimate is a single value used to estimate a population parameter. For
example, the sample mean (xˉ\bar{x}xˉ) is a point estimate of the population
mean (μ\muμ).

Question & Answer:


Q: Can we trust point estimates completely?
Answer: No, point estimates give us a single value, but they don't tell us how
precise that estimate is. That’s why we often prefer interval estimates, which
provide a range of values within which the true parameter is likely to lie.
Interval Estimation (Confidence Intervals):
Interval estimation provides a range of values, called a confidence interval,
within which the population parameter is likely to fall. This interval gives
more information than a point estimate because it includes a margin of error.

Question & Answer:


Q: Why do we use intervals instead of just point estimates?
Answer: Interval estimates give us a range that accounts for the uncertainty in
the sample, making it a more reliable representation of the population
parameter.

Example Discussion:
Let's say you collect data on the average time students spend studying. A point
estimate might tell you that the average study time is 4 hours, but an interval estimate
(e.g., 3.5 to 4.5 hours) shows the uncertainty and gives a range within which the true
mean is likely to fall.

Part 2: Confidence Intervals for Population Mean

2.1 Introduction to Confidence Intervals:

A confidence interval (CI) provides a range of plausible values for a


population parameter (such as the mean) based on sample data. A key concept
here is confidence level—the probability that the confidence interval includes
the true population parameter.

For example, a 95% confidence level means that if we repeated the sampling
process many times, approximately 95% of the intervals calculated would
contain the true population mean.

Question & Answer:


Q: What does it mean to say that we are "95% confident"?
Answer: It means that we expect the confidence interval to contain the true
population parameter 95% of the time if we repeated the process many times.
It does NOT mean there's a 95% chance that the true value is within the
current interval.
Answer to question:
Using the t-distribution, the confidence interval is 75.05 to 84.95. The interval
is wider than when using the normal distribution because the t-distribution
accounts for more uncertainty with smaller sample sizes.
Part 4: Key Concepts & Review

4.1 Confidence Level & Margin of Error:

Increasing the confidence level (e.g., from 95% to 99%) increases the width of
the confidence interval because we are requiring more certainty, which
necessitates a larger range.

Question & Answer:


Q: How does increasing the sample size affect the width of a confidence
interval?
Answer: Increasing the sample size decreases the margin of error, which
narrows the confidence interval, providing a more precise estimate of the
population parameter.

Part 4: Key Concepts & Review

4.2 General Review Questions:

What is the difference between a parameter and a statistic?

Answer: A parameter is a fixed value that describes a characteristic of the entire population, while a
statistic is a value calculated from a sample, used to estimate the population parameter.

What is the purpose of a confidence interval?

Answer: A confidence interval provides a range of values that is likely to contain the true population
parameter. It helps account for the uncertainty in the sample estimate.

What does a 95% confidence level mean?


Answer: It means that if we were to take many samples and construct confidence
intervals for each sample, approximately 95% of those intervals would contain the
true population parameter.

How do you calculate a confidence interval when the population standard


deviation is known?

 · population standard deviation, and nnn is the sample size.

· What is the difference between using a Z-distribution and a t-distribution


when calculating confidence intervals?

 · Answer: The Z-distribution is used when the population standard deviation is known and
the sample size is large. The t-distribution is used when the population standard deviation is
unknown or the sample size is small (n<30n < 30n<30).

· How does increasing the sample size affect the confidence interval?

 · Answer: Increasing the sample size decreases the margin of error, resulting in a narrower
confidence interval, which provides a more precise estimate of the population parameter.

· How do you interpret a confidence interval that does not include the
hypothesized population parameter (e.g., population mean)?

 · Answer: If the confidence interval does not include the hypothesized parameter, it
suggests that the sample data provides evidence against the hypothesis that the population
parameter is equal to the hypothesized value.

· When constructing a confidence interval for a population proportion, what


formula do you use?

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