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To Rhiannon, Rory, and Eirian
Contents

List of Figures xvi

List of Tables xviii
List of Boxes xix
Preface xx
Acknowledgments xxii

PART I
Introduction to Public Policy Analysis 1

1 Preview 3
2 What is Policy Analysis? 30
3 Toward Professional Ethics 42

PART II
Conceptual Foundations for Problem Analysis 57

4 Efficiency and the Idealized Competitive Model 59

5 Rationales for Public Policy: Market Failures 74
6 Rationales for Public Policy: Other Limitations of the Competitive
Framework114
7 Rationales for Public Policy: Distributional and Other Goals 130
8 Limits to Public Intervention: Government Failures 149
9 Policy Problems as Market and Government Failure:
The Madison Taxicab Policy Analysis Example 182
x Contents
PART III
Conceptual Foundations for Solution Analysis203

10 Correcting Market and Government Failures: Generic Policies 205

11 Adoption 259
12 Implementation 280
13 Government Provision: Drawing Organizational Boundaries 304

PART IV
Doing Policy Analysis 325

14 Gathering Information for Policy Analysis 327

15 Landing on Your Feet: Organizing Your Policy Analysis 340
16 Case Study: The Canadian Pacific Salmon Fishery 376
17 Cost–Benefit Analysis: Assessing Efficiency 398
18 Public Agency Strategic Analysis: Identifying Opportunities
for Increasing Social Value 435

PART V
Conclusion 451

19 Doing Well and Doing Good 453

Name Index 455

Subject Index 468
Detailed Table of Contents

List of Figures xvi

List of Tables xviii
List of Boxes xix
Preface xx
Acknowledgments xxii

PART I
Introduction to Public Policy Analysis 1

1 Preview 3
Reducing the U.S. Kidney Transplant Shortage 3
Debriefing 22
Write to Your Client 23
Understand the Policy Problem 24
Be Explicit About Values 25
Specify Concrete Policy Alternatives 26
Predict and Value Impacts 27
Consider the Trade-Offs 27
Make a Recommendation 28
For Discussion 29

2 What Is Policy Analysis? 30

Policy Analysis in Perspective 31
Policy Analysis as a Profession 34
A Closer Look at Analytical Functions 38
Basic Preparation for Policy Analysis 39
For Discussion 41

3 Toward Professional Ethics 42

Analytical Roles 43
Value Conflicts 46
Ethical Code or Ethos? 53
For Discussion 55
xii Detailed Contents
PART II
Conceptual Foundations for Problem Analysis 57

4 Efficiency and the Idealized Competitive Model 59

The Efficiency Benchmark: The Competitive Economy 60
Market Efficiency: The Meaning of Social Surplus 62
Caveats: Models and Reality 72
Conclusion 73
For Discussion 73

5 Rationales for Public Policy: Market Failures 74

Public Goods 74
Externalities 93
Natural Monopoly 98
Information Asymmetry 104
Conclusion 112
For Discussion 112

6 Rationales for Public Policy: Other Limitations of the Competitive

Framework 114
Thin Markets: Few Sellers or Few Buyers 114
The Source and Acceptability of Preferences 115
The Problem of Uncertainty 119
Intertemporal Allocation: Are Markets Myopic? 124
Adjustment Costs 127
Macroeconomic Dynamics 128
Conclusion 128
For Discussion 129

7 Rationales for Public Policy: Distributional and Other Goals 130

Social Welfare beyond Pareto Efficiency 130
Substantive Values Other Than Efficiency 137
Some Cautions in Interpreting Distributional Consequences 142
Choosing Distributional Values 146
Instrumental Values 147
Conclusion 148
For Discussion 148

8 Limits to Public Intervention: Government Failures 149

Problems Inherent in Direct Democracy 150
Problems Inherent in Representative Government 156
Problems Inherent in Bureaucratic Supply 168
Problems Inherent in Decentralization 177
 Detailed Contents xiii
Conclusion 181
For Discussion 181

9 Policy Problems as Market and Government Failure: The Madison

Taxicab Policy Analysis Example 182
Postscript: Technology Makes the 24/7 Rule Irrelevant 195
The Relationship between Market and Government Failures 197
Conclusion 200
For Discussion 201

PART III
Conceptual Foundations for Solution Analysis 203

10 Correcting Market and Government Failures: Generic Policies 205

Freeing, Facilitating, and Simulating Markets 205
Using Subsidies and Taxes to Alter Incentives 215
Establishing Rules 231
Supplying Goods through Nonmarket Mechanisms 244
Providing Insurance and Cushions 251
Conclusion 257
For Discussion 258

11 Adoption 259
The Big Picture: Policy Process Frameworks and Theories 260
Practical Approach to Assessing and Influencing Political Feasibility 269
Political Strategies with Arenas 273
Conclusion 279
For Discussion 279

12 Implementation 280
Prerequisite: Sound Logic 281
Identifying the Links in the Chain: The Assembly Metaphor 282
Roles in the Implementation Process 282
Implementation Analysis Techniques 289
Policy Outcomes: Uncertainty and Error Correction 294
Understanding the Implications of Repeated Interaction 299
Conclusion 303
For Discussion 303

13 Government Provision: Drawing Organizational Boundaries 304

Provision or Production? 304
Production Costs, Bargaining Costs, and Opportunism Costs in Contracting 307
xiv Detailed Contents
Predicting Bargaining and Opportunism Costs 311
More Autonomous Public Supply 315
Complex Public Provision 316
Public–Private Partnership Case 319
Assessing and Building Public Agency Capacity 322
Conclusion 323
For Discussion 323

PART IV
Doing Policy Analysis 325

14 Gathering Information for Policy Analysis 327

Document Research 328
Field Research 336
Conclusion 339
For Discussion 339

15 Landing on Your Feet: Organizing Your Policy Analysis 340

Analyzing Yourself 340
The Client Orientation 341
Steps in Rationalist Policy Analysis 342
Problem Analysis 343
Solution Analysis 355
Communicating Analysis 370
Self-Analysis Once Again: Combining Linear and Nonlinear Approaches 374
Conclusion 375
For Discussion 375

16 Case Study: The Canadian Pacific Salmon Fishery 376

For Discussion 397

17 Cost–Benefit Analysis: Assessing Efficiency 398

Preview: CBA of a Juvenile Justice Program 400
Net Benefits and Potential Pareto Improvement 403
Step 1: Specify Current and Alternative Policies 404
Step 2: Specify Whose Costs and Benefits Count 405
Step 3: Catalogue Relevant Impacts 407
Step 4: Predict Impacts over Time Horizon of Policies 408
Step 5: Monetize All Impacts 412
Step 6: Discount Benefits and Costs to Obtain Present Values 420
Step 7: Compute the Present Value of Net Benefits 424
Step 8: Perform Sensitivity Analysis 426
 Detailed Contents xv
Step 9: Recommend 431
Conclusion 433
For Discussion 434

18 Public Agency Strategic Analysis: Identifying Opportunities for Increasing

Social Value 435
Clarifying Social (Public) Value 436
The External Forces on an Agency 438
Internal Analysis: The Value Creation Process 446
Feasible, Rather than Ideal, Alternatives 449
Conclusion 449
For Discussion 450

PART V
Conclusion 451

19 Doing Well and Doing Good 453

Name Index 455

Subject Index 568
Figures

3.1 Alternative Responses to Value Conflicts 48

4.1 Pareto and Potential Pareto Efficiency 61
4.2 Consumer Values and Surpluses 63
4.3 Changes in Consumer Surplus 64
4.4 Money Metrics for Utility 66
4.5 Average and Marginal Cost Curves 67
4.6 Monopoly Pricing, Rents, and Deadweight Loss 69
4.7 A Supply Schedule and Producer Surplus  71
4.8 Inefficiencies Resulting from Deviations from the Competitive
Equilibrium72
5.1 Demand Summation for Rivalrous and Nonrivalrous Goods 77
5.2 A Classification of Goods: Private and Public 80
5.3 Toll Goods 82
5.4 Private Provision of a Public Good: Privileged Group 85
5.5 Overconsumption of Open-Access Resources 89
5.6 Choice of Herd Size as a Prisoner’s Dilemma 90
5.7 Overproduction with a Negative Externality 95
5.8 Underproduction with a Positive Externality 96
5.9 Social Surplus Loss from Natural Monopoly 100
5.10 Shifting Demand and Multiple Firm Survival 102
5.11 X-Inefficiency under Natural Monopoly 104
5.12 Consumer Surplus Loss from Uninformed Demand 106
6.1 Utility Function Showing Loss Aversion 123
7.1 Lorenz Curve and Gini Index of Income Inequality 144
8.1 Agenda Control in a Two-Dimensional Policy Space 153
8.2 Surplus Transfers and Deadweight Losses under Price Supports 160
8.3 Surplus Transfer and Deadweight Losses under Price Ceilings 162
9.1 A Procedure for Linking Market and Government Failure to Policy
Interventions198
10.1 The Effect of a Matching Grant on Provision of Targeted Good 221
10.2 The Effect of an In-Kind Subsidy on Consumption 226
12.1 Implementation Roles 284
12.2 Equilibria in a Repeated Game 301
15.1 A Summary of Steps in the Rationalist Mode 343
15.2 Choosing a Solution Method 351
17.1 Opportunity Cost in a Factor Market with a Price Floor 413
 Figures xvii
17.2 Consumer Surplus Gain of Increased Swimming Pool Access for
the Wheelchair Disabled 416
17.3 The Present Value of Production and Consumption 421
17.4 Net Social Benefits of HEALTH 430
18.1 PASA External Analysis: Five Forces that Shape the Strategic
Situation439
Tables

2.1 Creation and Application of Public Policy Knowledge 32

3.1 Three Views on the Appropriate Role of the Policy Analyst 44
5.1 Examples of Externalities 94
6.1 A Summary of Market Failures and Their Implications for Efficiency 129
7.1 Alternative Social Welfare Functions 132
7.2 Comparison of Alternative Deceased-Donor Kidney Allocation Systems 147
8.1 An Illustration of the Paradox of Voting 151
8.2 Sources of Inefficiency in Representative Government: Divergences
between Social and Political Accounting 169
8.3 Sources of Government Failure: A Summary 181
10.1 Freeing, Facilitating, and Simulating Markets 206
10.2 Using Subsidies and Taxes to Alter Incentives 217
10.3 Establishing Rules 232
10.4 Supplying Goods through Nonmarket Mechanisms 246
10.5 Providing Insurance and Cushions 251
10.6 Searching for Generic Policy Solutions 257
11.1 Policy Process Frameworks and Theories: Implications for
Policy Analysts 261
11.2 A Political Analysis Worksheet: Feasibility of a Ban on Random
Workplace Drug Testing 270
12.1 Thinking Systematically about Implementation: Forward Mapping 291
13.1 When Are Incremental Costs Likely to Favor Contracting Out? 307
13.2 Six Dimensions of Property Rights: Differences between Public,
Private, and Public–Private Hybrid Organizations 318
15.1 The Simple Structure of a Goals/Alternatives Matrix 355
15.2 License Assignment Methods Compared 357
15.3 Typical Impact Categories for Efficiency 358
15.4 Comparison of Selected Policies for Cutting CO2 Emissions 366
15.5 Communicating Policy Analyses 374
17.1 Present Value of Net Benefits of Investing in New Garbage Trucks 425
17.2 Mean Costs and Benefits of HEALTH from Monte Carlo Simulation 429
17.3 Choosing among Projects on the Basis of Economic Efficiency 432
Boxes

1.1 Reducing the U.S. Kidney Transplant Shortage by Increasing

the Number of Live-Donor Kidneys 3
9.1 Taxi Regulation in Madison 182
16.1 Increasing the Social Value of the BC Salmon Fishery 377
17.1 The King County Education and Employment Training
(EET) Program 401
Preface

When we began our study of policy analysis at the Graduate School of Public Policy (now
the Goldman School), University of California at Berkeley, the field was so new that we
seemed always to be explaining to people just what it was that we were studying. It is no
wonder, then, that there were no textbooks to provide us with the basics of policy analy-
sis. More than a dozen years later, we found ourselves teaching courses on policy analysis
but still without what we considered to be a fully adequate text for an introductory course
at the graduate level. Our experiences as students, practitioners, and teachers convinced us
that an introductory text should have at least three major features. First, it should provide
a strong conceptual foundation of the rationales for, and the limitations to, public policy.
Second, it should give practical advice about how to do policy analysis. Third, it should
demonstrate the application of advanced analytical techniques rather than discuss them
abstractly. We wrote this text to have these features.
We organize the text into five parts. In Part I we begin with an example of a policy
analysis and then emphasize that policy analysis, as a professional activity, is client
oriented, and we raise the ethical issues that flow from this orientation. In Part II we pro-
vide a comprehensive treatment of rationales for public policy (market failures, broadly
defined) and we set out the limitations to effective public policy (government failures). In
Part III we set out the conceptual foundations for solving public policy problems, includ-
ing a catalogue of generic policy solutions that can provide starting points for crafting
specific policy alternatives. We also offer advice on designing policies that will have good
prospects for adoption and successful implementation, and how to think about the choice
between government production and contracting out. In Part IV we give practical advice
about doing policy analysis: structuring problems and solutions, gathering information,
and measuring costs and benefits. Furthermore, there is an entirely new chapter on per-
forming analysis from the perspective of a public agency and a particular program within
the agency’s portfolio: public agency strategic analysis (PASA). Part V briefly concludes
with advice about “doing well and doing good.”
We aim our level of presentation at those who have had, or are concurrently taking,
an introductory course in economics. Nevertheless, students without a background in
economics should find all of our general arguments and most of our technical points
accessible. With a bit of assistance from an instructor, they should be able to understand
the remaining technical points.
We believe that this text has several potential uses. We envision its primary use as the
basis of a one-semester introduction to policy analysis for students in graduate programs
in public policy, public administration, and business. (Thorough treatment of all topics
covered, including cost–benefit analysis, would probably require two semesters.) We
believe that our emphasis on conceptual foundations also makes it attractive for courses
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